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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from throwing out, we're saying.

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Speaker 3: It's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 4: We see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to Swann.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible being bank, small bank.

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Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 3: ultimate combine.

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Speaker 2: And you want to fall.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: We are presented by our friends at bet MGM, the

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Speaker 1: King of sports books. It's time for NFL Best Bets

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Speaker 1: Super wild Card weekend in the National Football League. We

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Speaker 1: have two analysts this week, Little Shorter show. We have

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson and Anthony Dubundo of the Action Network. Brending

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Speaker 1: Glass Sheen your host. If you are watching us on

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Speaker 1: the video side on YouTube, great appreciate it. Subscribe to

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Speaker 1: our YouTube page for all of our Action Network content

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Speaker 1: throughout the course of this NFL postseason hit subscribe like

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Speaker 1: the video. And also, if you're listening, you've probably done

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Speaker 1: so already if you've been with us from the beginning,

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Speaker 1: but if you just hop it in for the postseason,

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Speaker 1: please leave a five star rating and review and on Apple,

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Speaker 1: Spotify wherever you listen, so We appreciate those. We take

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Speaker 1: a look at those. All your feedback is welcomed. Don't forget.

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Speaker 1: You can find Dubundo and Brandon individually in the free

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Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app anything else they might be

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Speaker 1: on throughout the course of the postseason. They might add

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Speaker 1: something later in the weekend because of line movement, etc.

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Speaker 3: News.

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Speaker 1: You can also find us in the Action Network Discord server.

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Speaker 1: I know Sean Kerner was in there a ton week

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Speaker 1: eighteam with all of the guys getting ruled out. He's

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Speaker 1: just a great example these other guy. Dub Bundo hops

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Speaker 1: in there, Brandon too from time to time, So hop

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Speaker 1: in chat it up with some of the experts and

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Speaker 1: other gamblers. Tough end of week eighteen. It's always a

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Speaker 1: tough Week three and six, But the show for the

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Speaker 1: year is ninety four and eighty three when you include

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Speaker 1: our Brandon's look ahead. Du Bundo had to look ahead

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Speaker 1: a few weeks back during Christmas Week. So without further ado,

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Speaker 1: let's dive and we're going to go in chronological order

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Speaker 1: of the games. Du Bundo's gonna pick on the first

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Speaker 1: game of the weekend. Houston, the afc CeAl champion, hosting Cleveland,

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Speaker 1: the first wild card team. Dubundo, where are you going here?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So I was hoping this would get to three,

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Speaker 4: and there were briefly some threes in the market and

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Speaker 4: now it's down to two and a half and heading

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Speaker 4: toward two. So I don't think we're going to get

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Speaker 4: those threes. But I'm going to take Houston here with

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Speaker 4: the points in this matchup. I think that, you know,

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Speaker 4: we've gotten a little bit too insane on what this

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Speaker 4: Cleveland offense is with Joe Flacco off of the back

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Speaker 4: of five games. Like, let's keep in mind that, yes,

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Speaker 4: Joe Flaco has played five games, He's thrown eight interceptions.

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Speaker 4: His turnover where they play rates, you know, suggests he

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Speaker 4: should have about eight interceptions in five games. And I

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Speaker 4: just don't really trust them. You know, you're going on

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Speaker 4: the road in a playoff game. I understand that this

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Speaker 4: is a rookie Houston team, rookie quarterback, rookie coordinator, head coach,

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Speaker 4: all of those reasons to be a little bit like

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Speaker 4: skeptical of them, and given the fact that they were

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Speaker 4: a little bit fortunate last weekend on the road in Indy.

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Speaker 4: But I think the mythology of Joe Flacco has gotten

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Speaker 4: way out of hand here and I think the market

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Speaker 4: is clearly overvaluing him. This Cleveland defense has not traveled

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Speaker 4: nearly as well as it's been at home. You know,

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Speaker 4: you look at their numbers, Their sacks are cut in

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Speaker 4: half when they're on the road. And you also saw

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Speaker 4: the Houston offensive line have a ton of problems with procedural.

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Speaker 1: Stuff last week in Indy.

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Speaker 4: I think them getting like a basically playoff game under

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Speaker 4: their belt last week on the road helps them now

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Speaker 4: as they come home here. Noah Brown returned to practice today,

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Speaker 4: so you know, maybe it just won't be just Nico Collins.

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Speaker 4: And then the Browns injury report is also concerning. Denzel

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Speaker 4: Ward went down today in practice, did not practice as

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Speaker 4: a result of the injury, so it was significant enough

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Speaker 4: and his status is now really up in the air

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Speaker 4: for this game on Saturday. Quick turnaround for them Houston.

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Speaker 4: I know that Cleveland didn't really play all their starters,

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Speaker 4: but it is an extra day of rest for Houston

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Speaker 4: as well, relatively speaking, so I just think this should

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Speaker 4: be closer to a pick them. I think Cleveland's the

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Speaker 4: better team, but keep in mind Cleveland closed minus three

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Speaker 4: and a half in Houston with case Keenum, you know,

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Speaker 4: three weeks ago, and I know, you know, they dominated

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Speaker 4: the game and deserve to win. Of course, like in hindsight, yes,

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Speaker 4: three and a half was probably short, but now it's

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Speaker 4: just two and a half. And I think that kind

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Speaker 4: of gets to the point of just how much there's

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Speaker 4: been inflation on this Cleveland team in general. And I

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Speaker 4: think it's good to play against that. So I think

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Speaker 4: everybody's kind of penciled Cleveland in. They're the dark horse,

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Speaker 4: the team nobody wants to play, everybody's betting them futures.

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Speaker 4: I'm going to pump the brakes on that and say, hey,

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Speaker 4: look like this team ran really good in close games.

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Speaker 4: They've got a quarterback who's basically whole strategy is to

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Speaker 4: make a ton of mistakes and make a ton of

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Speaker 4: big plays, and I'm going to take the much more

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Speaker 4: steady quarterback, which is c J. Stroud at home here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the quarterback change. And you

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Speaker 1: know Sean Kerner from our predictive analytics team, he'll often

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Speaker 1: map out the difference to the spread and the quarterback

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Speaker 1: and the fact it's only moved or it hasn't really

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Speaker 1: moved all that much with the trans position from Mills

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Speaker 1: slash Keenum to C. J. Stroud is alarming. That was

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Speaker 1: also the game when they played each other Christmas Week

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Speaker 1: when we saw Amari Cooper go for two sixty five

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Speaker 1: through the year. I would think Tomiko Ryan's a former

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Speaker 1: secondary coach. They will make the adjustment in that game too. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: let's move on to Kansas City and Miami. Neither of

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Speaker 1: you have an actual official pick on this game, but

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Speaker 1: you do have some liens, some things you're keeping an

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Speaker 1: eye on. Brandon. Where are you at with Chiefs Dolphins?

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Speaker 1: That is Saturday night on Peacock.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a tough one, you know. Peacock, big winner.

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Speaker 2: They get probably the most anticipated game of the weekend,

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Speaker 2: right Chiefs Dolphins, I think is the one that certainly

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Speaker 2: I am looking forward to it. It's gonna be cold,

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Speaker 2: like I'm up here in my North Dakota bunker, and

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Speaker 2: I feel like I'm ready at the game.

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Speaker 3: Like it's high of one degree.

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Speaker 2: I think right now for kickoff a Saturday night, it

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Speaker 2: looks windy. You've read all about of course to a Tega.

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Speaker 2: Bailoa grew up in Hawaii, played in Alabama. You know

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Speaker 2: the fact that Miami can't play cold weather games, I'm

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Speaker 2: not really sure I buy that. Like, Miami's got players

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Speaker 2: from all over the nation. But the quarterback thing, the

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Speaker 2: gripping the ball and making those plays, that does matter,

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Speaker 2: I believe is highest or lowest degree win ever is

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Speaker 2: forty eight degrees from Black Friday when they beat the

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Speaker 2: Jets in that game, and obviously got you know, the

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Speaker 2: fail mary and some wonky stuff in there too. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I have a hard time with this game. The line

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Speaker 2: feels suspiciously high for the Chiefs, like.

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Speaker 3: Four and a half.

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Speaker 2: If Miami was healthy, I honestly think Miami is a

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Speaker 2: better team, So I would put Miami as a favorite.

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Speaker 2: But Miami's not healthy, and we got the cold weather

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Speaker 2: and we got the road thing, and the Dolphins have been,

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Speaker 2: you know, not good, not good at all against good

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Speaker 2: teams here. I think they are one and five with

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Speaker 2: a minus ninety one point differential against playoff teams. So

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Speaker 2: one of those games was the Chiefs. We saw that

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Speaker 2: game happen already. I do wonder if that's going to

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Speaker 2: maybe get Steve Spagnolo a leg up that you've already

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Speaker 2: got to play this offense, you get.

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Speaker 3: To prep for it.

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Speaker 2: The stuff I like best about Miami is the stuff

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Speaker 2: that's hurt like that's I like their speed, but we

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Speaker 2: don't know what monster it's gonna look like, if he'll

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Speaker 2: play in a chan. We don't know if the receivers

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Speaker 2: are good to go or how good they are to go,

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Speaker 2: and the secondary. Obviously Miami's pass rush, their top three

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Speaker 2: guys are all out now. So Kansas City, I think,

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Speaker 2: you know, Patrick Mahomes has not been as usual but

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Speaker 2: probably gets to, you know, stand back there and do

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Speaker 2: his thing. I don't have a side on the game.

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Speaker 2: If I had a pick here, I'm under a lot

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Speaker 2: of under trends here mentioned the weather, the cold weather,

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Speaker 2: outdoor unders forty one and above, total forty one and

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Speaker 2: above in non division wildcard around games twenty nine and

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Speaker 2: nine to the under seventy six percent, So that's a

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Speaker 2: good under trend. Chiefs are twelve and five to the under.

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Speaker 2: If I make a pick, and obviously I will in

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Speaker 2: my every game, every team article this week, my top

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Speaker 2: play here is actually just the second and half under, Debundo.

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Speaker 2: I know you've been on chief second half under is

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Speaker 2: a lot this season. Chiefs went fifteen and two to

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Speaker 2: the under in the second half. Dolphins, we're twelve and

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Speaker 2: five to the over in the first half. I don't

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Speaker 2: know if that really plays here. I'm not sure we're

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Speaker 2: gonna see a lot of scoring, but why not just

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Speaker 2: chunk that out of there and get the second half

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Speaker 2: and I could see, you know, Chiefs get a bit

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Speaker 2: of a lead and just a lot of Pacheco runs

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Speaker 2: cold night, like four yards straight up the middle, run

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Speaker 2: the clock. Honestly, I think Miami runs the ball a

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Speaker 2: lot this game too. That's probably their best path, so

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Speaker 2: that moves the clock. So I do like the under

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Speaker 2: if anything, and I'll go at the second half under

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Speaker 2: twenty one and a half, but just to lean. Not

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Speaker 2: one of our official picks today.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I wrote in my Better Pass column on Tuesday

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Speaker 4: that I liked Kansas City up to minus two hundred.

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Speaker 4: There has been no market resistance on Miami all week,

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Speaker 4: Like every Kansas City bet, They've just kept moving the

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Speaker 4: line and moving the line, and there has been no buyback.

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Speaker 4: I'm a little surprised by it because you tend to

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Speaker 4: see sharp buyback against these injury slash spot related moves,

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Speaker 4: which is essentially what it is. I mean, you can't

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Speaker 4: find a power rating system that would tell you Kansas

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Speaker 4: City should be laying four and a half to Miami.

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Speaker 4: But when Miami had to play seventy three snaps on

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Speaker 4: Sunday night right on the road, you know, at home,

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Speaker 4: and then had to travel to Kansas City to the

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Speaker 4: cold on a short week, with all of the wear

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Speaker 4: and tear on that defense, Buffalo went up and down

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Speaker 4: the field Sunday night. Meanwhile, Kansas City kind of had

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Speaker 4: a bye week. I mean, they played the Chargers, but

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Speaker 4: they rested a lot of key guys and they basically

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Speaker 4: didn't probably prep at all for the Chargers. So I

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Speaker 4: think that there's an element of like rest, situational and

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Speaker 4: injury advantages that all favor Kansas City in a major way.

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Speaker 4: You also have the playoff experience factor. The weather, I

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Speaker 4: think matters too. Had played pretty well in the snow

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Speaker 4: game last year in Buffalo back in December of last year,

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Speaker 4: like he played fine, The offense moved the ball, but again,

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Speaker 4: like with Hill and Waddle not being right, they don't

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Speaker 4: really have like a third receiver or a tight end

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Speaker 4: they used. So I think there's some real questions about

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Speaker 4: this Miami offense, and Spignola's is good game planner as

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Speaker 4: any of the defensive coordinator. So I think the Dolphins

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Speaker 4: offense has major problems here, and the defense has faced

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Speaker 4: one of the three easiest schedules of opposing offenses in

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Speaker 4: the whole league. So I think there's some real holes there,

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Speaker 4: and we've seen it the last two weeks. I mean,

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Speaker 4: Baltimore and Buffalo offensively are operating at a higher level

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Speaker 4: than Kansas City, but Miami's defense had no answers for either.

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Speaker 4: It was only really just Josh Allen mistakes that kept

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Speaker 4: Miami in that game, just by getting out played.

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Speaker 1: While not officially a bye week, Andy reidoff of bye

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Speaker 1: historically is also very good. They didn't play starters in

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Speaker 1: their last game against the Chargers, only a handful of

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Speaker 1: losses to a thirty games sample size, so that's something

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Speaker 1: to keep in mind too. And Travis Kelsey's receiving yard

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Speaker 1: prop has come up a little bit. It was at

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Speaker 1: fifty six and a half now it's closer to sixty.

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Speaker 1: And then the Pacheco line has actually come down a

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Speaker 1: few yards during the week. It's come down to sixty

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Speaker 1: four and a half, which I found interesting because I

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Speaker 1: agree with Brandon. This feels like a Pachecko game, and

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Speaker 1: I would lead under two and you get that key

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Speaker 1: number of forty four. It's at forty four and a

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Speaker 1: half someplace. So there's your case, Miami breakdown on Peacock.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully you know where to find it. If you're not

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Speaker 1: going to buy it on Saturday night, all right, let's

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Speaker 1: move on. Let's go to Sunday. Let's go to Sunday

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Speaker 1: Bills taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Brandon, I opened my

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Speaker 1: phone Sunday night after the Bills beat the Dolphins. I

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Speaker 1: got distracted. I think I saw the news come on

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Speaker 1: because I've got snow here in Boston. And then boom,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, seven and a half turns in

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Speaker 1: eight and a half, then eight and a half turns

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Speaker 1: into nine and a half, and now it's up to

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Speaker 1: ten Buffalo minus ten against the Rah Rah or maybe

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Speaker 1: a blah blah dubuno Mike Tomlin spot this week, where

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Speaker 1: are you at, Brandon for Bills and Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is not Rah Rah's done. Rara doesn't work

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Speaker 2: on in the road as well. It's better in the division.

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Speaker 2: It's better after a loss this is none of those things.

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Speaker 2: Give me the Bills minus ten. Look I said in

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Speaker 2: that Twitter storm at your time about Brandon right as

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Speaker 2: the game was finishing up, I was ready whoever Pittsburgh got.

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Speaker 2: I was ready to pounce on whoever they're playing. The

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Speaker 2: first line that came out, I said, grab the best

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Speaker 2: Bills line you can. I got the seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: Then it jumped to ten. That's huge, Like we lost

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Speaker 2: a Fueld goal of value. I still like the Bills.

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Speaker 2: We lost a touchdown on the total the following day

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Speaker 2: with the crazy weather that's presumed to come in Buffalo,

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Speaker 2: and I was like, man, can't take the Bills anymore.

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Speaker 3: I still like the Bills.

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Speaker 2: So I think actually the weather here maybe a season

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Speaker 2: or two ago, would have pushed me off of this

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Speaker 2: because Buffalo wasn't built for it quite as well. But

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Speaker 2: late this season they've kind of become a team that

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Speaker 2: Pittsburgh would really be proud of their defense, and they're

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Speaker 2: a power run team. That's what the Bills have become

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Speaker 2: more of. Their defense has been better at home. Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: all season long has been a slow starting team that

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Speaker 2: doesn't seem like a great formula as huge underdogs on

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Speaker 2: the road in a playoff game. I just have a

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Speaker 2: hard time imagining. How is Pittsburgh gonna move the ball here?

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Speaker 2: How are they going to score some points? We've watched

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Speaker 2: them the last few weeks, and Mason Rudolph, maybe you

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Speaker 2: can put up a few points on Cincinnati and I

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Speaker 2: forget the other team he's scored some points on. But

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Speaker 2: against Baltimore, they barely even move the ball at all.

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Speaker 2: They need to get some help there against a lot

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Speaker 2: of Baltimore backups too, So Tomlin not really super aggressive.

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Speaker 2: I just don't see Pittsburgh scoring a lot here. And

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Speaker 2: the Bills the power run game has been good. We

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Speaker 2: talked about this in the podcast last week. James Cook

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Speaker 2: has been unleashed. They've been a top eight rushing and

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Speaker 2: passing DVA team the last six weeks this season. Their

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Speaker 2: run frequency is a way up since they made the

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Speaker 2: coordinator change. And so I think Buffalo especially dominates this

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Speaker 2: game in a weather game, where do you got to

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Speaker 2: pay attention in the trenches. And that's why I like

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Speaker 2: Buffalo is in the trenches, and most particularly why I

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Speaker 2: want to fade Pittsburgh instantly is because TJ. Watt is

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Speaker 2: out and TJ. Watt out means I'm betting against Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: When TJA Watt is on the field, the Steelers lead

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Speaker 2: the league in sacks. When he's not on the field.

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Speaker 2: Since drafted, the Steelers are one in ten straight up

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Speaker 2: and listen to how Stark. The contrast is two years ago,

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Speaker 2: Watt only missed two games, so small sample. I know,

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Speaker 2: with what on the field, the Steelers were thirteenth by DVA.

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Speaker 2: With them off the field, they were thirtieth. They dropped

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Speaker 2: to the third worst defense. And if that's not enough

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Speaker 2: sample for you, let's go to last year. Lot missed

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Speaker 2: seven games. Last year they went one in six without him,

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Speaker 2: still finished over five hundred because Mike Tomlin in the games.

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Speaker 2: With what on the field, Pittsburgh was the number one

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Speaker 2: run defense. Hey, that matters in this power run game.

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Speaker 2: They were number two defense overall by DVA. When he

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Speaker 2: left the field in seven games, they dropped to thirty

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Speaker 2: first by DVA. Defensively, they went from second best to

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Speaker 2: second worst.

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Speaker 3: That's the TJ. Watt effect.

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Speaker 2: I think he is effectively the defensive MVP. If we

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Speaker 2: had an award life that for the impact he has

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Speaker 2: on this team on the field, so I was ready

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Speaker 2: to fade whoever. Pittsburgh is going to play a few

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Speaker 2: trends for you here wild Card round hosts. That's twelfalo

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Speaker 2: that made last year's playoffs facing a team that didn't

319
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Speaker 2: make the playoffs last year. Twenty one nine and one

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Speaker 2: against the spread seventy percent. So you want the experience

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Speaker 2: here again, another experience day. You've heard this from Stuckey

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Speaker 2: on six pack quarterbacks making their first playoffs start against

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Speaker 2: an experienced starter seventeen thirty five and one ats thirty

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Speaker 2: three percent. Obviously this is Mason Rudolph's first start here.

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Speaker 3: And then if you're worried about the highest spread, perhaps

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Speaker 3: you shouldn't be. Not this round.

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Speaker 2: Wildcard round home favorites of nine or more nine and

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Speaker 2: one ats the last two decades, so not a huge sample,

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Speaker 2: but we've had now three years where we got the

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Speaker 2: seven seed in right, we expanded the playoffs, we added

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Speaker 2: the extra team. The Steelers aren't supposed to be in

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Speaker 2: the playoffs as a few years ago. They're just the

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Speaker 2: extra spot. Now, how have those teams done? They're all

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Speaker 2: in six, they covered twice out of six, they've lost

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Speaker 2: by an average of twelve points. A game four times

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Speaker 2: by twelve or more, so I think that's what we

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Speaker 2: get here. Steelers have struggled to even get on the board.

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Speaker 2: They've had eighteen points in ten games the season eighteen

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Speaker 2: or less, including six of their last eight, So we

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Speaker 2: might only need like twenty Buffalo points to get past

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Speaker 2: the thread here. Buffalo has five wins by twenty one

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Speaker 2: or more. Thirty one of their last forty four wins

343
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Speaker 2: have been by double digits, so I'm not intimidated by

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Speaker 2: the high line as long as Josh Allen doesn't do

345
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Speaker 2: the Josh Allen stinker thing. I think the Bills win,

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Speaker 2: and when they win, I think it's big. So give

347
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Speaker 2: me the Bills minus Ton.

348
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Speaker 4: Well, as you know, I'm a weather I'm a weather enthusiast. Yes,

349
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Speaker 4: I need to put my weather hat on because I

350
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Speaker 4: think it's really important here because I don't think we

351
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Speaker 4: may have found the bottom of this total. It sounds

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Speaker 4: crazy and it's still a little early, but like it's

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Speaker 4: Thursday morning, Thursday afternoon recording this right now, there's going

354
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Speaker 4: to be a major low pressure system up in Quebec,

355
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Speaker 4: which is the definition of textbook lake effects snow right

356
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Speaker 4: and the band of snow.

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Speaker 1: Being to bundle behind the green screen.

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Speaker 4: If you're watching, Yeah, I wish I had one here.

359
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,720
Speaker 4: Like we're talking like twenty to thirty mile hour winds sustained,

360
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Speaker 4: and we're also talking about blizzard conditions for this game.

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Speaker 4: If the Lake effects snow is over Buffalo when the

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Speaker 4: game actually kicks off right now, the modeling is suggesting

363
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Speaker 4: it's gonna be over Buffalo in the morning on Sunday

364
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Speaker 4: and then maybe shift a bit to the south as

365
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Speaker 4: we get closer to kick. It's very, very fine, though,

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Speaker 4: and the difference between a full on blizzard and like

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Speaker 4: just generally windy conditions is a pretty big difference to

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Speaker 4: the football game. And I really can't get to Buffalo

369
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Speaker 4: here with that uncertainty because I know that they have

370
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Speaker 4: a run game now, but if you just can't throw effectively,

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Speaker 4: really it's gonna be really hard to lay ten because

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh can run it too. So that's just my only

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Speaker 4: concern right now, and that's why I have not bet

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Speaker 4: a dime on this game yet. I'm going to be

375
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Speaker 4: closely monitoring the weather. You know, follow me on Twitter.

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Speaker 4: I'll have a tweet or something or something. But it's

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Speaker 4: really fascinating how bad it could get for Sunday, and

378
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Speaker 4: I'm excited for it.

379
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Speaker 1: The other game Brand and you were thinking of was Seattle,

380
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Speaker 1: when somehow Pittsburgh got to thirty points against the Seattle Seahawks.

381
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Speaker 4: In Cincinnati and Seattle are like the two of the

382
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Speaker 4: five worst defenses in the NFL right.

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Speaker 2: Now, right, I mean, I think I genuinely talk the

384
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Speaker 2: way that Rudolph and the Steelers will probably struggle to

385
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Speaker 2: move the ball in this game. I think the Steelers

386
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Speaker 2: may well score like three points, six points something like that.

387
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Speaker 2: And field goals. Who knows, we might not get field

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Speaker 2: goals in the game either, depending on how bad the

389
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Speaker 2: weather is. And we've seen a lot of times where

390
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Speaker 2: the Steelers stall in field goal arranged and keep kicking

391
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Speaker 2: the field goals. That's why that Ravens game would kind

392
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Speaker 2: of hung around for a while even last week. So

393
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Speaker 2: if you can't kick field goals once you stall, I

394
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Speaker 2: just trust you know with Buffalo you get the power

395
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Speaker 2: run game if necessary. I know it didn't work for

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Speaker 2: us last week. I was on the Josh Allen power

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Speaker 2: touchdown run.

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Speaker 3: We didn't get it.

399
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Speaker 2: But if I got to have a back that first

400
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 2: of all needs to throw in the weather. Josh Allen

401
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,120
Speaker 2: can throw through the win. He can make that throw.

402
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,880
Speaker 2: I'm not taking Mason Rudolph or Kenny Picket out there

403
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,159
Speaker 2: if you need to make a throw, and if I

404
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 2: need it, I'm gonna run up the middle. I ain't

405
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Speaker 2: gonna be with Mason Rudolph. I'm gonna get Josh Allen.

406
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Speaker 2: Just give me that power run game over and over.

407
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Speaker 2: So I do think that the weather is it's not

408
00:19:20,280 --> 00:19:22,880
Speaker 2: a deal. If it was a clear weather game, i'd

409
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:25,359
Speaker 2: feel better about this, but I still feel fine with it,

410
00:19:25,400 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 2: even with the terrible North Dakota weather that has spread

411
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 2: to other places.

412
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Speaker 4: Yeah, if it was indoors, i'd lay ten in a second,

413
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Speaker 4: But unfortunately it's not good.

414
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Speaker 1: And I would say two three years ago, when TJ.

415
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Speaker 1: Watt and the Steelers went to Kansas City, he had

416
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Speaker 1: the scoop and score for a touchdowns even with what

417
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Speaker 1: they put the pressure on. Immediately scored in the first quarter,

418
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Speaker 1: and then they only ended up scoring They had like

419
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,879
Speaker 1: a backdoor touchdown in the fourth quarter, not a backdoor

420
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Speaker 1: like they scored late. So and for all intents and purposes,

421
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Speaker 1: they only scored like one touchdown in that game after

422
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Speaker 1: the Watts score, and he's not playing in this game.

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Speaker 3: So there you go.

424
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Speaker 1: There's a breakdown for Bills and steel The Saturday part

425
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 1: of me Sunday Afternoon game on Fox features two of

426
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Speaker 1: the most historic teams in the league. You've got the Packers.

427
00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 1: Dubundo taken on the Cowboys. The lines back to seven,

428
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 1: there were some seven and a half, so out there

429
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Speaker 1: Green Bay plus seven totals at fifty and a half.

430
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Speaker 1: Green Bay. You're darling, you've been watching them now for

431
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 1: a long time in this second half of the season.

432
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Speaker 1: Where are you out on the Packers and the Cowboys?

433
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy against his former team.

434
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 4: Well, Green Bay has become one of my favorite watches

435
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,879
Speaker 4: in the league. You know, way back in Week seven,

436
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:33,640
Speaker 4: when I was like, I don't really know about the Packers,

437
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,159
Speaker 4: I tuned in just at the right time. So you're welcome,

438
00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 4: Packers fans. I tuned in just in time for Jordan

439
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 4: Love to take the leap to improve his accuracy and

440
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:44,520
Speaker 4: his mechanics and become what has been at top five

441
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 4: quarterback in the second half of the season by ePaper

442
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:49,920
Speaker 4: play and by success rate. This offense is humming. They're

443
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,479
Speaker 4: really young, so you can kind of say, well, they

444
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 4: started slow, they've had some injuries, but they've figured it out.

445
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:59,840
Speaker 4: Here a lead offensive line in pass protection, manage those

446
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,000
Speaker 4: in injuries, found a ton of young guys, very versatile,

447
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,119
Speaker 4: so Dallas can't really just take away one or two people.

448
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,760
Speaker 4: It's kind of the whole whole thing. I like Lafleur

449
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,080
Speaker 4: as a game planner, and I think this Packers' offense

450
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 4: is executing at a top five or six level right now,

451
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 4: and I think Dallas is too. And I don't really

452
00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 4: see a ton of stops here for these defenses. First

453
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,560
Speaker 4: of all, Green Bay's only chance is pass rush. I

454
00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 4: really don't think that the pass rush is going to

455
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 4: really impact Dak too much because he's been getting the

456
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 4: ball out so fast. This Green Bay defense as a sieve,

457
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 4: I mean, let's think about that run they had. And

458
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:34,280
Speaker 4: I know they played pretty well against Jaren Hall and

459
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,879
Speaker 4: Justin Fields to end the season, but they gave Tommy

460
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,040
Speaker 4: DeVito by far the best game of his career, Bryce

461
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 4: Young by far the best game of his career, and

462
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield the best game of his season. In three

463
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 4: straight weeks, they won NFC Offensive Player of the week

464
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 4: three straight weeks against this team, and quite frankly like

465
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 4: they don't cover the middle of the field. They're not

466
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 4: good against quarterbacks who can use their legs, which dack

467
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 4: Ken to extend drives. And what's the avenue for them

468
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,679
Speaker 4: having any success defensively here? I don't really see it.

469
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 4: So I think this is a back and forth game.

470
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 4: I like the over fifty and a half Dallas. You

471
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:09,600
Speaker 4: know all the stats about how good they've been at home,

472
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 4: everybody's told you that offensively, but I do think green

473
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 4: Bay can score with them. I lean toward green Bay

474
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 4: on the side at seven. I wouldn't bet it at

475
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 4: seven and a half. I think it's something that I

476
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,919
Speaker 4: would bet, But I like the over more ultimately, and

477
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 4: I think green Bay probably loses like a thirty to

478
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 4: twenty four kind of game, but I think it's going

479
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 4: to be very competitive down the stretch, and I do

480
00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 4: like the over. Keep in mind, you know, for all

481
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,560
Speaker 4: that's been made of the Detroit defense, Detroit played at

482
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 4: Dallas two weeks ago, the total close fifty two. That's

483
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 4: where I think this should be. Both offenses in the

484
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 4: Detroit and Dallas game moved up and down the field,

485
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 4: the whole game. There was just a lot of like

486
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 4: red zone weirdness that happened, and fumbles and turnover some downs.

487
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 4: I think we're going to see a lot of points here,

488
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 4: So give me the over fifteen and a half and

489
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 4: I'll be rooting for the Packers to make it close.

490
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 4: And actually for my Lions future, maybe I should be

491
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 4: rooting for the pack to pull off the upset.

492
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: Dallas team total at twenty nine and a half and

493
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 1: the Packers hovering in that three touchdown range twenty one,

494
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: twenty one and a half. Brandon, let's go to Sunday night,

495
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:11,360
Speaker 1: another revenge spot. Two quarterbacks facing their former teams. Matthew

496
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 1: Stafford goes back to Detroit to face the Detroit Lions

497
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,479
Speaker 1: led by Jared Goff, the former quarterback of Sean McVay,

498
00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,200
Speaker 1: And that to me is like where I pick apart

499
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 1: this game. Sean mcvay's got the understanding of what Jared

500
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 1: Goff's weaknesses are, and Matthew Stafford did not play for

501
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 1: Dan Campbell during his time with the Lions. So where

502
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: you're going to take a little bit of a different approach.

503
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:37,920
Speaker 1: Where do you land on this revenge game?

504
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a similar approach, but it's a slight pivot.

505
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 3: So I did this.

506
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 2: Game on the hot read and I took Rams plus

507
00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 2: three and a half. But we're now down to a

508
00:23:47,280 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 2: plus three. That's the key number. Obviously you lose the

509
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 2: hook there, I would still go Rams plus three. That's

510
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: the direction that I would lean for sure. I think

511
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 2: they have a chance to win the game outright, a

512
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: good chance, but I'm gonna pivot a little bit with

513
00:23:59,680 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 2: that hook line move. I'm gonna take the Rams team

514
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 2: total over so over twenty four and a half. And

515
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 2: in the hirey, I can't talked about what you just said, Brendan.

516
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 2: I'm worried about Jared Goff and he's is he gonna

517
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 2: score against Sean McVay against Rhee Morris, Remorris wasn't there

518
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 2: was a really good defensive coordinator. And if anybody knows

519
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 2: Jared Goff's weaknesses, it's Sean McVay who literally broke up

520
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,200
Speaker 2: with him and dumped him to bring in a quarterback

521
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 2: who could win the Super Bowl.

522
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 3: And hey worked out pretty well.

523
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 2: And Sam Laporter probably not gonna play this game, maybe

524
00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 2: not Khalif Raymond because Detroit, because they are who they

525
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 2: are went hard in a mostly meaningless game last week

526
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 2: and those guys got hurt. So I don't know if

527
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:44,840
Speaker 2: the Lions scored. They might though, because I have a

528
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 2: lot of confidence in Ben Johnson. My uncertainty about how

529
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 2: much Detroit scores is why I'm pivoting to just the

530
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 2: Rams team total, because I am confident the Rams are

531
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 2: gonna score. And that's just the angle that I'm gonna

532
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 2: go with. Here. Another high total here, fifty one half

533
00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 2: in rising, We're gonna see a lot of scoring. The

534
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 2: Rams when they've had their four offensive stars healthy, have

535
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 2: been a juggernaut offensively. Matt Stafford, Kyroen Williams just a

536
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 2: breakout start at running back I think finished top three

537
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,320
Speaker 2: in rushing yards even though he missed like a month

538
00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 2: of the season, Cooper Cup obviously, rookie Kuka Nakua. When

539
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 2: those four guys are on the field, Rams have gone

540
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 2: over this number. Seven out of eight games that they've

541
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 2: played this season, they've averaged twenty and a half points

542
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 2: a game. They are the number two offense by DBA,

543
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 2: behind only the forty nine ers. With those guys on

544
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 2: the field, and initially there was two games and then

545
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: there was a stretch where Kyroen missed, and now they've

546
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 2: had since the bye week six games in a row,

547
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 2: not counting last week because they mostly all sat against

548
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 2: San Francisco in that six game stretch, thirty one point

549
00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 2: three points a game at least twenty six every one

550
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: of those games. Since the bye week, the Rams are

551
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 2: seven to one. The only lost was an overtime game

552
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: to Baltimore, team that we all know has been the

553
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 2: hottest team down the stretch. So Lion's defense, their run

554
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 2: defense has been pretty good, and I think that matters

555
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 2: a lot here against Karen Williams, but they have been

556
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: gashed at times, especially against top offenses. They've allowed at

557
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 2: least twenty four over half of their games, and the

558
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 2: Rams obviously are gonna be one of the better offenses

559
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: that they faced. One of my favorite trends this round

560
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 2: is fading home teams like Detroit that missed last year's playoffs.

561
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,479
Speaker 2: Those teams are thirteen and twenty nine ats thirty one percent.

562
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 2: So I do like the Rams here. I'm not off

563
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 2: of my hot read just as it moved off to

564
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 2: three and a half. I'm gonna pivot to the thing

565
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: and most confident in which is the Rams scoring? I

566
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,840
Speaker 2: think the Rams get some points. Maybe Detroit does too,

567
00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 2: and does enough to get there, But just give me

568
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 2: the Rams over twenty four and a half on Sunday

569
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:48,200
Speaker 2: Night Football.

570
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 1: Alrighty excellent. The Action Network podcast is presented by Bett MGM.

571
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: Use bonus code Action when signing up to get up

572
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: to fifteen hundred dollars paid back in bonus bets if

573
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:07,440
Speaker 1: your first bet lose this for new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

574
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

575
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

576
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler. Let's move to

577
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 1: Monday night. You both have angles here. Eagles sliding. Eagles

578
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 1: went under their season total season win total under at

579
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. They finished with eleven wins. They

580
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: lost five of six to close out the year. There

581
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: are three point favorites in Tampa totals at forty three

582
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 1: and a half. Now you can see some forty four

583
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,000
Speaker 1: some forty forty three and a Half's Bundo, you first

584
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 1: Eagle's gonna figure this out or what?

585
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 4: That's a great question.

586
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:46,880
Speaker 3: I don't know.

587
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 4: You know, I think generally.

588
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,639
Speaker 1: You've been waiting for a get right game for a

589
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 1: month and a.

590
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 4: Half, right, yeah, and it looked like it was going

591
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 4: to be that Christmas game against the Giants, and then

592
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 4: you looked up and all of a sudden, the Giants

593
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 4: were driving for the tie, right with the Tyrod Taylor

594
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 4: coming in. The thing is, you know, I think all

595
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 4: of us, and especially Brandon and I have kind of

596
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,959
Speaker 4: been like, Okay, obviously the Eagles aren't as good as

597
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 4: ten and one indicates. But I don't even think Brandon,

598
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 4: who has kind of dubbed himself as top Eagles hater,

599
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 4: ever saw it getting this bad.

600
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 3: Last year's King's good, and honestly.

601
00:28:19,800 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 4: Like defensively, they're worse than last year's Vikings right now.

602
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,400
Speaker 4: And that's what's so scary about the bet that I'm

603
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 4: that I have already made and the bet I'm recommending here,

604
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 4: which is the under forty four points, because the Eagles

605
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 4: defense in the first twelve to thirteen weeks of the

606
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 4: season was pretty good on early downs, tough to run on,

607
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 4: really bad on third down and they got exposed by

608
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 4: some really good quarterbacks. And you could say, okay, yes

609
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 4: it's clearly a below average unit, but it's not a

610
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 4: horrendous unit. But since that Seattle game, since Matt Patricia

611
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 4: became defensive coordinator, they are the worst defense in the NFL.

612
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 4: In the last four weeks, they have looked lost. Carter

613
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 4: and Davis on the defensive line. The two rookies slash

614
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 4: second year guy they've been relying on, look at a

615
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 4: gas and they look confused. And they've made Kyler Murray

616
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 4: and Torod Taylor look like Joe Montana and Tom Brady

617
00:29:06,760 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 4: the last two weeks. So it is scary. I understand that,

618
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,239
Speaker 4: but there are some things to be encouraged about with

619
00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: this total being too high now, and it's all about injuries.

620
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 4: Darius Slay missed the last four games. I know there's

621
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 4: been some handwringing about how he's lost a step, but

622
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 4: his return is significant. He's still the best corner on

623
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 4: the team. He's going to play this week. Avonte Maddox

624
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 4: is back in the slot he missed. He played the

625
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 4: last two games, didn't play well, but I do expect

626
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 4: him to continue to play better as he gets back

627
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 4: off that peck injury that he had. Zach Cunningham his

628
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 4: first game was you know, he played about half the

629
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 4: game last week, kind of getting his feet wet so

630
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:41,719
Speaker 4: he could be ready for the playoffs. He is their

631
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 4: best linebacker. He is not a good linebacker, but he

632
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 4: is their best linebacker. And they gave Fletcher Cox a

633
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 4: week off in the middle of the defense as well,

634
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 4: kind of a veteran rest move. So this Philly defense

635
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 4: can't be worse than it's been in the last four weeks.

636
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 4: I know how bad it's been, though, and that's a

637
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 4: little scary. But also the offensive injuries for these two teams.

638
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 4: Baker Mayfield, if you watch the tape from the last

639
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 4: two weeks, it is very evident that he is not healthy.

640
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 4: They didn't score until the fourth quarter against the Saints.

641
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 4: They didn't score a touchdown against Carolina. He missed a

642
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 4: lot of throws he was making in the month before that,

643
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 4: and he was playing great ball. I think there's clearly,

644
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 4: like you know, there's been reports of a rib injury.

645
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,200
Speaker 4: Then he was limping off the field on Sunday against Carolina,

646
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 4: so that's an issue that you know, he's dealing with

647
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 4: and then offensively for the Eagles. Jalen Hurts just said

648
00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:27,600
Speaker 4: in his Thursday press conference, and you know that he

649
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 4: hasn't thrown a football since the end of.

650
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: The Giants game.

651
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 4: He was taken out at halftime. Sirianni made a comment

652
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 4: today in his press conference that it was probably a

653
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:36,880
Speaker 4: mistake to send Hurts back in the game after the

654
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 4: finger popped out. We're talking about a dislocated middle finger

655
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 4: on the right hand of a throwing quarterback. That's a

656
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 4: pretty significant thing, even if you know he's still gonna play,

657
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 4: which I do expect if he can't throw right and

658
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 4: has major implications. AJ Brown seems like he's fine, but

659
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 4: DeVante Smith was in a walking boot after the Arizona game.

660
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 4: He didn't play against the Giants. We don't know if

661
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 4: he's one hundred percent. And this Eagles offense is very

662
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 4: much like Stars and Scrubbs. Once you get past the

663
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 4: first two guys, it's a very mediocre offense in terms

664
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 4: of talent, and they rely so much on their skilled

665
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 4: players winning in the scheme that it just.

666
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 3: Is very guardable.

667
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 4: And then there's of course this Eagles versus the Blitz

668
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 4: thing where Philly has been just incomprehensibly bad against the

669
00:31:17,480 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 4: blitz this season. It's been a multiple year issue for

670
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 4: the Eagles. They have not been able to sort out

671
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 4: the blitz. They're the most blitzed team in the NFL

672
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 4: and this season went blitzed. They are twenty seventh and

673
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 4: EPA per attempt on offense hurts is and their nineteenth

674
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 4: and third down conversions when they aren't blitzed, they're sixth

675
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 4: at EPA and they're second and third downs. So this

676
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 4: offense just kind of breaks when you blitze it. And

677
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 4: Buffalo Tampa Bay Bowls he blitzes at one of the

678
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 4: top rates in the league. So I think this total

679
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,320
Speaker 4: is too high at forty four. I'm concerned about Hurts.

680
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 4: I think they may go run heavy and also it

681
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 4: could be raining, so all this stuff. Just hold your nose.

682
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,600
Speaker 4: Pray for Matt Patricia. The pencil gods will save us

683
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 4: under forty four.

684
00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 1: Bensil gods, Oh, Matt Patricia, the gift that keeps on giving.

685
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,880
Speaker 1: All right, Brandon adan Aggs, I think you're going the

686
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 1: same way.

687
00:32:07,520 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 4: But Brandon wearing an Eagles jersey by the way.

688
00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 3: Yeahah, look, I'm wearing the Carson like this is quickly.

689
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 1: This is like the opposite of Kerner, like Colonel will

690
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 1: wear the hat. Now, sometimes you'll play like an under

691
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: on a player prop, but more often than not, when

692
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 1: Kerner wears a hat on a show, it's he's kind

693
00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: of backing that team in a way, and Brandon, I think,

694
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: is doing the opposite.

695
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 2: Look is this, Carson Wentz? This is for both of

696
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: my picks here, Carson, great game on Sunday for the Rams.

697
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 2: Maybe gets to play a little this weekend. My Rams

698
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: team total over. I'm in North Dakota, my guy Carson Wentz,

699
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 2: and sure it's green for a little Eagles, We'll go under.

700
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 2: I'm a little down under where I'm in the trenches

701
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 2: here making my picks today. It's a whole theme concept here,

702
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 2: not quite as clean as du Bundo's cheese had. Yeah,

703
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 2: I'm on the under here under forty four. This was

704
00:32:56,880 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 2: my hot red under forty five. In this case, I'm

705
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 2: not daunted by the line move. I'm happy to grab

706
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 2: the forty four, get it if you can take forty

707
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: three and a half, if it's all that's left. Honestly,

708
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: think that this is still off by a few points.

709
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 2: And I do think it's going to keep dropping too.

710
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 2: I don't see it going the other direction with the weather,

711
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 2: with the possible injuries. So any other bad injury news,

712
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 2: any other actual outright hurts news, if we got anything,

713
00:33:22,480 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: can really only drop the line.

714
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 3: These teams played in Week three.

715
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 2: It was twenty five to three until late in the

716
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 2: game we got a garbage touchdown, so that was an

717
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 2: easy low under there.

718
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:35,080
Speaker 3: The Dubunda.

719
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 2: You mentioned obviously all the Eagles defensive problems. I agree

720
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 2: with all that stuff, but I'm not really that worried

721
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 2: about the Bucks offense here. Their offense has been worse

722
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 2: at home this season than on the road. It's been

723
00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: bad on early downs, it's bad in the first half.

724
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 2: I'm not really sure the Bucks can take advantage of

725
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 2: a lot of the flaws here. One of the things, too,

726
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: is Tampa Bay's run offense is atrocious and seventy percent

727
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 2: of their runs go straight up the middle, basically up

728
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 2: through the middle of the line. That's the one place

729
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: where Philadelphia's defense has been stout. Still near top five there.

730
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 2: You mentioned they gave Fletcher Cox the week off. Jalen

731
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,239
Speaker 2: Carter took the second half of the season off just

732
00:34:14,280 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 2: to bring back Jalen Carter and or Will Anderson. Bet

733
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 2: one more plug for Will Anderson there. That is up

734
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 2: the middle though, the one spot where Philadelphia is still strong.

735
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: Box defense. Last six weeks they're number six by dv Away,

736
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 2: their number one against the run. So if the Eagles

737
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,880
Speaker 2: have to go run heavy, this is not the team

738
00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,319
Speaker 2: to do it against, like vite Veya. This is the

739
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 2: run defense that you that for years has been really

740
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,720
Speaker 2: tough there. And then just to add to what Dubundo

741
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:47,160
Speaker 2: said on the blitzing thing, Todd Bowles in particular, Jalen

742
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 2: Hurts has been awful against Todd Bowles. He's played three

743
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 2: games against Todd Bowles. He's had three touchdown passes and

744
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 2: five interceptions in those games. At least one pick every

745
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:00,280
Speaker 2: game he's completed under fifty five percent of his pass

746
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: is barely over two hundred yards. So Philadelphia passing really

747
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 2: has been the one thing they've still done pretty well

748
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 2: down the stretch. And if now you can't do that

749
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 2: against bowls and with the broken or whatever displaced finger

750
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 2: and the injuries, I just don't know what avenues there

751
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: are here. And to me, I see a lot of

752
00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 2: avenues for under. Maybe the Eagles can't score, maybe the

753
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: Bucks can't score. Maybe it's just this like turgid, awful

754
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 2: Monday night, like thirteen ten sort of game. There's there's

755
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 2: a lot of ways we can get there. The Baker injury,

756
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,319
Speaker 2: the Hurts injury obviously were high in my list. And

757
00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 2: then let me just hit you with a few trends.

758
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,399
Speaker 2: As always, Bucks underies on the season eleven and six

759
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 2: to the under home underdog unders. You've heard that a lot.

760
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 2: That's sixty percent to the under, primetime unders, sixty percent

761
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,319
Speaker 2: to the under last five years, fifty four thirty two

762
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 2: and one to the under on Monday nights. I mentioned

763
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 2: under earlier for outdoor games this round, and the wild

764
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 2: card forty one or above is twenty nine and nine

765
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: to the under seventy six percent. And then if we

766
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 2: keep dropping, grab it at forty four. But if it

767
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 2: gets below forty four, Baker mayfield games the sub forty

768
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 2: four total twenty four and eleven to the under. He

769
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 2: is one of our most profitable quarterbacks in the system

770
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 2: there as well. So there's a lot of trends, a

771
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,760
Speaker 2: lot of unders. To me, this is one of those like, well,

772
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 2: you know on the six Pack episode they do the

773
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 2: Thursday night. Well, it's not the best game, but it's

774
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 2: the only game, so we're gonna be watching it. I

775
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 2: think that's what we're looking at on Monday Night. Honestly,

776
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,919
Speaker 2: we've been doing these NFC South unders all season long.

777
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,640
Speaker 2: The Eagles are so mid that they might just be

778
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 2: an honorary NFC South team at this point. So just

779
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 2: give me another NFC South under, Give me the Bucks under.

780
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,319
Speaker 2: The Eagles are along for the ride under forty four.

781
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,799
Speaker 4: I would be shocked if either of these teams had

782
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,760
Speaker 4: a chance against you know, in the next round. Yeah,

783
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 4: or Dallas or even Detroit at this point, Yeah, right,

784
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 4: pretty okay, a lot of Eagles Fanders ready for the

785
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 4: season end. One more thing, you know, Camp Bay like

786
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:00,840
Speaker 4: their defense really struggled to Middleport the season when the

787
00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: whole team was injured. They have certainly trended up again

788
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 4: since they've gotten healthier.

789
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: Okay, right, we don't know based on what happens in

790
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 1: the other games, if the Eagles or the Bucks would

791
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:14,000
Speaker 1: draw Sam fran but that ought to be interesting. What

792
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 1: line you get there? Would that sore beyond a ten

793
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,399
Speaker 1: that we're seeing with Buffalo and Pittsburgh. No, probably not right.

794
00:37:20,520 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 4: No, Eagles offense is still too good to catch.

795
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 1: Ten fair enough, I'd like way too good.

796
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,360
Speaker 4: I think they'd be under a touchdown against Dallas.

797
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,759
Speaker 2: And just a quick look ahead for you as you

798
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 2: think about a hot reader grabbing an initial line. No,

799
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,400
Speaker 2: in the wild card round, you want to grab a

800
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,960
Speaker 2: lot of these big home favorites. That's what the trends

801
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 2: I've told you just from history. In the divisional round,

802
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 2: you fade the big home favorites, especially by big lines

803
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:47,640
Speaker 2: against the threat, not saying that they're going to lose,

804
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 2: but those rested teams, the teams that we all know

805
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 2: are the juggernauts that everyone wants to bet on. History

806
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 2: says you typically fade those teams. So we'll have I'm

807
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 2: sure some of those trends back next week. But just

808
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,240
Speaker 2: just a warning caution before you run out and grab

809
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 2: those immediate San fran and Baltimore lines, or if you

810
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,920
Speaker 2: do do, grab the early line before it gets pushed

811
00:38:07,960 --> 00:38:09,399
Speaker 2: up by all the other money coming in.

812
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 1: Right, very good. Before we get out of here, we've

813
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 1: got a fun announcement. Action Network is throwing a wild

814
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:18,120
Speaker 1: Card weekend watch party at the Shepherd and the Knucklehead

815
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 1: and Hoboken, New Jersey. And you're invited, Stucky, raybon Kerner, Dubundo,

816
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 1: you're going right, Dubundo's going to be there. He should

817
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 1: be included in this copy. Well, Dubundo will be there

818
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 1: as well. That's the that's the grand uh, that's the

819
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: main event. Simon and Chad from the Favorites podcast will

820
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,879
Speaker 1: also be there. They're they're kind of important what they're doing,

821
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,440
Speaker 1: along with tons of others folks from Action Network. The

822
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 1: event is free, RSVP is free. Even the drinks are free. Wow.

823
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: Doors are open at four pm on Saturday and Sunday

824
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 1: this weekend. For all the details and how to RSVP,

825
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: check out the link in the episode description. Now, before

826
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: we're full, there you go.

827
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 4: As Stucky said, it's all your favorite Action personalities and Dubundo.

828
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 1: It's kind of funny, honestly, all right is going to do.

829
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 1: Brandon's staying in the bunker. Brandon's gonna be in the

830
00:39:05,440 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 1: bunker and watching football all weekend, which is totally fine,

831
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 1: wearing who knows what jersey. Then I'll do it here

832
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast for our NFL Super Wildcard

833
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 1: Weekend Best Bets episode. Thanks to our friends at BETMGM

834
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 1: for presenting the podcast. Don't forget to download the free

835
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app mentioned discord like the YouTube page,

836
00:39:23,840 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: subscribe if you haven't, and your five star ratings and

837
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:30,719
Speaker 1: reviews in the audio side of things is greatly appreciated.

838
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: For Dubundo and Brandon Anderson. Brendan glass Sheen. Thanks for

839
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 1: listening to the Action Network podcast presented by met MGM,

840
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: Good luck, enjoy the football.

841
00:39:56,440 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

842
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,640
Speaker 4: some one you care about has a gambling problem, help

843
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 4: is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler