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Speaker 2: I want to check in with Ellen Wald. She is
Speaker 2: joining us here. Ellen. You know, a lot of going
Speaker 2: on in.
Speaker 3: The geopolitical markets impacting the global crude market, but we
Speaker 3: still got crud at low levels Brent CRWD sixty one bucks,
Speaker 3: WTI fifty seven dollars here. What's your view of the
Speaker 3: supplying demand that there for global crud?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think a lot of what we're seeing right
Speaker 4: now is, first of all, kind of end of year,
Speaker 4: not a lot of trading going on.
Speaker 5: In general, you know, not a lot of people on
Speaker 5: you know, working and trading a whole lot.
Speaker 4: But also I do think that we are actually seeing
Speaker 4: a pullback because earlier this month there were incredible hopes
Speaker 4: that we might see a resolution to the Russia Ukraine conflict,
Speaker 4: and that one brought.
Speaker 5: A lot of oil back of the market. I think
Speaker 5: we're kind of seeing kind of a pullback from that.
Speaker 4: People are realizing like that's that's not actually going to
Speaker 4: happen that soon. I also think that we're also seeing
Speaker 4: a little bit of a pullback from a slight fear
Speaker 4: of a supply.
Speaker 5: Disruption regarding Venezuela. It's pretty clear that the only supply
Speaker 5: disruption that's.
Speaker 4: Going on is Venezuela's supply is not going to reach
Speaker 4: the rest of the world.
Speaker 5: But the issue there is.
Speaker 4: That once the US is comveandeered this crewed, and President
Speaker 4: Trump has said outright that he plans to just you know,
Speaker 4: take the crew, put it into two US supplies, put
Speaker 4: it into the spr and whatnot, and that actually introduces
Speaker 4: more supply into the system, because this was crude oil
Speaker 4: that was sanctioned, was kind of being bought on the
Speaker 4: black market, but now it's being introduced into the the
Speaker 4: larger supply, and so that's going to push prices down,
Speaker 4: believe it or not. Though I do think that, you know,
Speaker 4: it's not quite settled there. We're really going off exactly
Speaker 4: what he said. So I think that there's a fear
Speaker 4: that we've got rising supply and that demand is not
Speaker 4: all that firm, that we could definitely see declining demand.
Speaker 4: I do think when we're looking ahead to twenty twenty
Speaker 4: six though, that people are looking very closely at the
Speaker 4: US supply and whether it's going to start to show
Speaker 4: signs of pulling back.
Speaker 6: Interesting, So maybe an issue of oversupply going in twenty
Speaker 6: twenty six where US becomes sort of a marginal barrel there.
Speaker 6: What's really interesting in some of your notes and I'm
Speaker 6: thinking about today in particular the move We've got thin trading,
Speaker 6: but oil is lower. As you mentioned, maybe people are
Speaker 6: taking three steps ahead to think what Venezuela ultimately has
Speaker 6: in terms of.
Speaker 2: Impact on supply.
Speaker 6: But also there is tentative even though you seem to
Speaker 6: say it's a little bit ahead of its there is
Speaker 6: some tentative optimism around a long stalled Ukraine piece talk
Speaker 6: at least in Zelenski looking to visit President Trump in Florida.
Speaker 6: We understand you make the leap that maybe all of
Speaker 6: this is something that then ultimately affects China. Can you
Speaker 6: talk us through as to why we see Venezuela and
Speaker 6: Russia maybe impacting China in a way that we should
Speaker 6: keep an eye on.
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, so, right now, China is a huge purchaser
Speaker 4: of Russian oil.
Speaker 7: They're also a.
Speaker 5: Purchaser of Venezuelan oil and not you know, to the.
Speaker 4: Extent that they purchase Russian and Iranian crewed bit still
Speaker 4: and so really, you know, this impacts China supply, and
Speaker 4: China has really been kind of getting away with an
Speaker 4: incredible amount of very low cost supply that they're buying
Speaker 4: off of this so called black market.
Speaker 5: And you know, if some of this supply that they
Speaker 5: even buying off the black market gets.
Speaker 4: Transitioned into the regular you know, oil market into supply, yes,
Speaker 4: it's going to push prices down overall.
Speaker 5: But China is.
Speaker 4: Going to start to have to pay more because they're
Speaker 4: paying such incredible discounts.
Speaker 5: For their sanctioned oil that they're buying right now.
Speaker 4: So China could be kind of looking at this with
Speaker 4: They probably are looking at this with a lot of
Speaker 4: interest in you know, what's going to be the prices
Speaker 4: that we're going to have to pay for oil in
Speaker 4: twenty twenty six, given all of these shifting geopolitical factors,
Speaker 4: and so they may actually be anticipating having to pay more,
Speaker 4: whereas the rest of the world is looking at paying less.
Speaker 3: Carolyn, you may not know this, but I am a
Speaker 3: big fan of the television show Landman, So I now
Speaker 3: consider myself an expert on all things oil and gas.
Speaker 3: So Ellen are good friends down in the oil patch.
Speaker 3: They can't be very happy with WTI and but they're
Speaker 3: fifty seven handle what are they doing today?
Speaker 8: What are they doing?
Speaker 4: So it's really interesting because if you want to know
Speaker 4: or if you want to get an idea about what's
Speaker 4: going on in the oil patch, yes, you could watch
Speaker 4: land Men. You could hop on over to the Dallas
Speaker 4: the Bank, the Dallas Federal Reserve where they do a
Speaker 4: quarterly survey of oil producers and also oil services companies,
Speaker 4: and they will give you a little glimpse into the
Speaker 4: mind of what they're thinking.
Speaker 5: And so the latest survey has showed.
Speaker 4: Everything from things are looking up. I'm you know, you know,
Speaker 4: not planning to reduce any production to I have to
Speaker 4: pay people to take my natural gas so that I
Speaker 4: can continue to produce.
Speaker 5: So I think the answer is it's really mixed, and.
Speaker 4: Some producers are looking at a better outlook and other
Speaker 4: producers are looking at a much more dismal outlook. And
Speaker 4: I do think that depends a lot on exactly where
Speaker 4: they're producing and how they're producing and what their wells
Speaker 4: look like, because it's really become a very complex and
Speaker 4: a complex game out there in terms of what kind
Speaker 4: of wells you have, what stage they're in, where you
Speaker 4: are and drilling in terms of how much you're going
Speaker 4: to get per barrel.
Speaker 3: This is a term that nobody in the oil business
Speaker 3: likes to hear. But is there a gloss in global
Speaker 3: oil supply?
Speaker 5: That depends when you ask.
Speaker 4: I think if you if you ask the IA, they'll
Speaker 4: tell you, yes, we're in a huge oil supply clut.
Speaker 4: If you ask Opek, they're going to say no, it's
Speaker 4: definitely not as bad as the IA seems. Now, why
Speaker 4: can we have these two competing answers well, because it's actually.
Speaker 5: Really hard to count all those barrels of oil out there.
Speaker 4: It's not like you just get a number out of
Speaker 4: computer spits you a number for you know, what's global
Speaker 4: consumption today. These are things that they have to be
Speaker 4: measured and it can be quite difficult, particularly with all
Speaker 4: of these sanctioned oil going on out there. So I
Speaker 4: can see why they're coming off with different different answers.
Speaker 6: Fascinating always catching up with Ellenwold of the Atlantic Council
Speaker 6: She's also got a book, Saudi Inc. We love to
Speaker 6: read that, So thank you.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
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Speaker 3: All right, retail sales, I think this Christmas season, the
Speaker 3: holiday season, from what we heard from the experts, Caroline,
Speaker 3: have been pretty solid. Kind of people are spending money,
Speaker 3: you know, so.
Speaker 6: Anecdotally, anecdotally I spent some money.
Speaker 3: Okay, speak right now, we've got some hard data folks
Speaker 3: joining us now with Michelle Allan, CEO of June Group
Speaker 3: and chief business officer at VERB talk about just kind
Speaker 3: of the consumer out there and retail and how's.
Speaker 2: The consumer doing.
Speaker 3: We've all heard about the K shaped economy, but what
Speaker 3: does that really mean for retailers out there and dollars
Speaker 3: being spent?
Speaker 2: So, Michelle, thanks so much for joining us here.
Speaker 3: What can you tell us about what we've learned over
Speaker 3: the last several.
Speaker 2: Weeks, maybe about the US consumer?
Speaker 9: Yeah, thanks thanks for having me. First of all, you know,
Speaker 9: we analyzed billions of search for on a basis using
Speaker 9: our Captify product, and what we're seeing in this holiday
Speaker 9: season is this very interesting behavior from consumers were you know,
Speaker 9: instead of being focused on deal driven shopping, they are
Speaker 9: shifting to an intent driven one. Obviously, before Black Friday
Speaker 9: you see a lot of you know, consumers looking for deals.
Speaker 9: But what we saw in the time leading to Christmas
Speaker 9: after Black Friday is that consumers were looking for trusted brands,
Speaker 9: They were looking for creative toys, and they were looking
Speaker 9: for subscriptions that remove friction and deliver instant value. Overall,
Speaker 9: this tells us that consumers weren't overwhelmed by what was
Speaker 9: available there. They were more intentional and selective around the
Speaker 9: brands that they chose.
Speaker 3: That's the term I've heard, like more intentional intentional buying.
Speaker 3: That's the first time I've heard that term here, but
Speaker 3: I've heard it a few times here this holiday season.
Speaker 2: How promotional were retailers out there?
Speaker 3: How promotional did they have to be, Michelle to drive traffic?
Speaker 9: Yeah, some of them. You know, there are two sides
Speaker 9: of the spectrum. You know, if you look at the markets,
Speaker 9: you still have the Marshalls and tim us of the world.
Speaker 9: We are looking to cast a white net and to
Speaker 9: attract those consumers that are looking.
Speaker 8: For for the for the deals.
Speaker 9: At the same time, when you look at the DTC brands,
Speaker 9: you know there.
Speaker 8: Will be partners of the world.
Speaker 9: They were more focused on creating this you know, premium
Speaker 9: experience around the shopping and you saw that translate into
Speaker 9: searchers that were you know, very.
Speaker 8: Specific to those brands.
Speaker 9: I think that consumers we're looking for brands that are trustable,
Speaker 9: that you know, will allow them to cast the white
Speaker 9: net when they are going and you know, buying gifts
Speaker 9: for their friends and relatives, but also tread and true
Speaker 9: brands that will never be objectionable or questionable for their
Speaker 9: last ones.
Speaker 6: How are people coming to those brands at the moment?
Speaker 6: There's companies that really managed to interweave the really bricks
Speaker 6: some watar element as well as the online and advertising.
Speaker 6: How you seeing people building a relationship with a brand
Speaker 6: at the moment.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think that some of it is traditional buying,
Speaker 9: you know, traditional e commerce buying. You see that a
Speaker 9: lot with the DTC brands who have their own you
Speaker 9: know e commerce environments.
Speaker 8: But you also see a big shift into.
Speaker 9: Social There was around one hundred and eighty percent increase
Speaker 9: in searches related to the TikTok shop. So if you
Speaker 9: consider that, you know, in the past, TikTok was a
Speaker 9: great venue for brand discovery. It was kind of like
Speaker 9: a PR tactic in a way, but now it's much
Speaker 9: more than that. It allows consumers to really close the
Speaker 9: loop and make a purchase very quickly, So it went
Speaker 9: beyond just, you know, a discovery tool as it used
Speaker 9: to be. And I think that brands that are that
Speaker 9: are smart about reaching their target audiences are going to
Speaker 9: put more focus on those types of shoppings in environments
Speaker 9: because shopping windows are becoming smaller, shorter and shorter, and
Speaker 9: consumers want to feel good about the decisions that they
Speaker 9: make and social environment is allowing.
Speaker 8: Them to do that.
Speaker 6: I mean, how do we break down generationally or just
Speaker 6: bring us with people who are on TikTok? Is it
Speaker 6: who is the person that's spending right now? What do
Speaker 6: they seem like? What are they what are their views
Speaker 6: on gifting? Is it mainly parents that are coming into
Speaker 6: TikTok and doing it? What are you seeing in terms
Speaker 6: of the gen z cohorts as well, we see the
Speaker 6: full gamut.
Speaker 9: I think that if you look at some of the
Speaker 9: brands that were mentioned in our research, you know, some
Speaker 9: of them cater to younger audiences, others cater to all
Speaker 9: their audiences.
Speaker 8: So we see really the full the full range.
Speaker 9: I think that sometimes people assume TikTok and those types
Speaker 9: of remdments are a better fit for the younger generations,
Speaker 9: but based on what we're seeing, it's actually the full range.
Speaker 8: And that's just the beginning.
Speaker 9: Right with the introduction of l A lamps and creating
Speaker 9: shoppable experience with experiences with l lamps, I think that
Speaker 9: we're going to see more and more shopping experiences becoming
Speaker 9: more focused and shorter, and again consumers will want to
Speaker 9: feel good about what the decisions that they made. Removing
Speaker 9: reduced that level of anxiety or FOMO is going to
Speaker 9: be key to those brands that are interested and being
Speaker 9: successful in these environments.
Speaker 3: Michelle, I think we're just starting to see consumers broadly defined,
Speaker 3: get starting to get a little bit comfortable with AI
Speaker 3: and how AI might be helpful to them. Probably can
Speaker 3: say the same thing about retailers. How are they using AI?
Speaker 3: Just give us an overview kind of what we learned
Speaker 3: and maybe during this shopping season, was AI prominent with
Speaker 3: the consumer with the retailer.
Speaker 9: I think we're in early stages of that. I do
Speaker 9: think that there are certain verticals in the market that
Speaker 9: are already taking advantage of, you know, consumer's ability to
Speaker 9: find the right solution for them. I think travel is
Speaker 9: a great example for that. I mean, think about how
Speaker 9: much time you normally spend in finding the best flight
Speaker 9: or the best hotel and using AI in order to
Speaker 9: do that work for you. Using agents is going to
Speaker 9: reduce a lot of that thermo or anxiety that people
Speaker 9: normally have when they search for travel.
Speaker 8: And you know, travel is one of.
Speaker 9: Our biggest verticals, and we always look at, you know,
Speaker 9: what can travel clients or brands can do better, And
Speaker 9: I think that they are ahead of the game, and
Speaker 9: I'm expecting others in retail in other areas to follow
Speaker 9: suit and optimize, you know, in the same way that
Speaker 9: they used to optimize for web searchers, to opt demise
Speaker 9: for how their brands appear in those lm AI environments.
Speaker 3: So this year, though Michelle talked to us, is it
Speaker 3: still e commerce taking share from bricks and mortar or
Speaker 3: do we have maybe kind of a new status quo
Speaker 3: there between e commerce and bricks and mortar.
Speaker 9: I think that one interesting thing that we saw was
Speaker 9: actually digital subscriptions. I think that those generate this you know,
Speaker 9: instant value. You don't need to wait for a product
Speaker 9: to be delivered. And in the past, those types of
Speaker 9: products had a stigma to them that they are not
Speaker 9: thoughtful enough or not specific enough to the person that
Speaker 9: you were trying to gift, and we've seen that shift
Speaker 9: over time. I think that, you know, based on the
Speaker 9: data that we're seeing this year, we saw some strong
Speaker 9: signals that digital products now carry as much weight as
Speaker 9: physical products, especially when time is scarce. And I think
Speaker 9: that what makes it even more interesting is if you
Speaker 9: look at the types of products that are were being promoted.
Speaker 9: You know, can the on limited or peloton does also
Speaker 9: give a nod to everyone's New Year's resolutions, right and
Speaker 9: making sure that there is some alignment between the gift
Speaker 9: and what people are trying to do in Q one
Speaker 9: or you know Q five as we sometimes call it, all.
Speaker 6: About the wellness. Michelle Alone, chief business Officer, over connecting
Speaker 6: advertisers to publishers across emerging channels great to get your
Speaker 6: expertise today. Thank you very much.
Speaker 4: Ed.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 6: We're not going to look at the day. We're going
Speaker 6: to look at the and we're going to look at
Speaker 6: what twenty twenty six brings too. With Carole Pepper pe
Speaker 6: Pull they got the puffect.
Speaker 3: The guest absolutely, Carol Pepper Pepper International CEO. Carol Again,
Speaker 3: Carolina and I were just kind of going over the
Speaker 3: total returns here in at twenty twenty five. What's the
Speaker 3: conversation you're having with your family office clients about twenty
Speaker 3: twenty six.
Speaker 10: Yeah, well, family offices are excited about this strong rally
Speaker 10: and although some of them still sat a bit on
Speaker 10: the sidelines during twenty five because in the beginning of
Speaker 10: the year it did look a bit dicey, they're all
Speaker 10: ready to take their dry powder and start investing. So
Speaker 10: I think it's going to be a very strong year.
Speaker 10: The fundamentals are there. We got that second, we've got
Speaker 10: a ray cut in December, which is phenomenal. The markets
Speaker 10: are strong, they're strong underpinnings, and so I think people
Speaker 10: are going to be going in early on. And as
Speaker 10: you say, if you can't make a deal in this market,
Speaker 10: go home, because it's going to be a fantastic market
Speaker 10: in twenty six.
Speaker 3: How much risk do you think your clients are going
Speaker 3: to be looking to take care after three strong years
Speaker 3: of equity returns, I think maybe looking outside of traditional
Speaker 3: public equity for maybe some other areas that might generate return.
Speaker 7: Well.
Speaker 10: Family offices are always interested in alternative investments and non
Speaker 10: correlated assets because we create asset allocations that last for generations,
Speaker 10: and portfolios are each tailored to the particular purpose of
Speaker 10: that portfolio. So for sure, we were in precious metals
Speaker 10: a couple of years ago. We've written that trend up.
Speaker 10: The AI data center trend is honestly just getting started,
Speaker 10: and a lot of those deals have been in the
Speaker 10: private side, through private debt deals and private hedge funds
Speaker 10: that are funding these plays. But those things will begin
Speaker 10: to come into the public markets as well. So AI technology,
Speaker 10: rare earth metals required to build a lot of this
Speaker 10: new technology that we're looking for in our country, deposits
Speaker 10: being found onshore that are going to be able to
Speaker 10: empower the resurgence of this new AI world that we're creating.
Speaker 10: There's a lot of areas to invest in this year
Speaker 10: in twenty.
Speaker 6: Six Carol, can I jump in on that, because we
Speaker 6: are anticipating some mega IPOs potentially in the AI world.
Speaker 6: We're expecting maybe SpaceX's sort of AI and defense in
Speaker 6: many ways, but Opening Eye could well tap the markets.
Speaker 6: If you're someone who hasn't managed to gain access through
Speaker 6: the private markets, are you left holding the baby? Do
Speaker 6: you think though, that actually there's more room to run
Speaker 6: in terms of valuations once in the public market.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, because you'll have an even larger capital base and
Speaker 10: they're just getting started.
Speaker 7: Family officers are working on this. You know, if you
Speaker 7: think about how quickly.
Speaker 10: The Internet changed, double triple, quadruple that rate of change.
Speaker 10: So even though we've got cutting edge ships today from Nvidia.
Speaker 7: We don't know what they're going to look like.
Speaker 10: Even by the end of the year, data centers that
Speaker 10: are the size of twenty football fields are going to
Speaker 10: shrink down to the size of shipping containers. Very shortly,
Speaker 10: you're going to find AI data centers inside of huge
Speaker 10: office buildings, for example, that have been repurposed to handle
Speaker 10: all the new compute power that's required. So you're going
Speaker 10: to see tremendous change happening in the AI space.
Speaker 7: And as that happens, you need a lot of capital.
Speaker 10: So yes, when it comes public, obviously the first few
Speaker 10: days is going to drift down. That's when you grab it,
Speaker 10: or on a fear day, because it's not like we're
Speaker 10: not going to have fear days in twenty six.
Speaker 7: We always have fear days.
Speaker 10: But yes, there will be opportunities for you to get
Speaker 10: into that trend, stick it into files college account or
Speaker 10: in your retirement account and just let it run.
Speaker 6: How much is the AI bubble going to be the
Speaker 6: fear trend? We have this on again, off again view.
Speaker 6: It feels as though people are brought back into AI
Speaker 6: optimism just in the last couple of weeks, but since
Speaker 6: October and onwards, we've had these fleeting moments of panic
Speaker 6: really that the debt that's getting loaded onto certain companies,
Speaker 6: or indeed just whether the productivity gains are going to
Speaker 6: be enough to vindicate the amount of infrastructure investment that
Speaker 6: we're seeing.
Speaker 7: Well, they will, it's just a question of timing, honestly.
Speaker 10: And the good part for the AI companies, Unlike during
Speaker 10: the dot Com these companies.
Speaker 7: Have a boatload of cash.
Speaker 10: If you rec during the dot com era, people were
Speaker 10: you know, basically buying on vaporware with no cash, no innings,
Speaker 10: no nothing. And in this case there is a massive
Speaker 10: cash hoard behind a lot of these plays. They learn
Speaker 10: their lessons and so they're ready to ride through those
Speaker 10: periods when there's doubt because other things are happening in
Speaker 10: the world besides AI.
Speaker 7: So I don't think they do.
Speaker 10: You see that, Yes, other things are happening, whether whether
Speaker 10: they notice.
Speaker 3: It or not, Carol, twenty twenty six is an election year,
Speaker 3: and that presumably will bring some level of uncertainty back
Speaker 3: into the marketplace.
Speaker 2: How much of a risk, if any, is that to you.
Speaker 7: I think it's going to be a lot of noise.
Speaker 10: I mean, unless you have an impeachment of the president
Speaker 10: due to a regime change in the House, so the Senate,
Speaker 10: it will be noise.
Speaker 7: There'll be a lot of noise there. You know.
Speaker 10: Epstein is a disgusting situation, but again not economically changing
Speaker 10: the country's profile. So as long as there's more steadiness
Speaker 10: this year, hopefully on the direction of the economics, and
Speaker 10: hopefully some further relief on teriffs, you'll see the market
Speaker 10: happy enough.
Speaker 7: And it's still.
Speaker 10: An open question of who's going to win the midterms US,
Speaker 10: but it will be something that will take them a
Speaker 10: lot of airtime, but not necessarily a lot of economic
Speaker 10: change per se for the markets.
Speaker 6: Carol, it's been great getting your expertise as we wrap
Speaker 6: up this year, an extraordinary year of record high on
Speaker 6: the S and P five hundred as we speak, Carol Pepper,
Speaker 6: great test of time. Pepper International CEO.
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