1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:17,799 Speaker 2: The US is set to restrict investments in China, but 6 00:00:17,880 --> 00:00:20,320 Speaker 2: the scope of those limitations is going to be limited. 7 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 2: It's only applying to companies that rely on cutting edge 8 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 2: technology related to things that we talk about all the 9 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:29,640 Speaker 2: time here, like artificial intelligence and quantum computing. So we're 10 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 2: going to get right into this with a reporter who 11 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 2: got the big scoop on this story, Anna Edgerton, and 12 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: it's great to speak with you. And because of you 13 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 2: and your colleagues, Bloomberg has reporting on this that no 14 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 2: other outlet has. So we're very lucky to have you 15 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 2: to discuss this with us. What specifics can you share 16 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 2: with us about what these proposed restrictions are going to 17 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:48,519 Speaker 2: look like? 18 00:00:49,120 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the big takeaway is that this measure 19 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 3: is going to be much nearrower than it was at 20 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 3: one point in time. So is something that the Biden 21 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,639 Speaker 3: administration has been working on for more than a year, 22 00:00:58,800 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 3: nearly two years and one point they were talking about 23 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 3: including other industries like biotechnology, mining of critical minerals, and 24 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 3: now it's just going to be some activities within these 25 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 3: three kind of subsets of sectors artificial intelligence, quantum computing, 26 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 3: and super advanced semiconductors. And within that subset of this 27 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,880 Speaker 3: you know, tech sector. It's only going to apply when 28 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:24,679 Speaker 3: it comes to large companies, companies that derive more than 29 00:01:24,720 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 3: half of their revenue from these prohibited activities. 30 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 2: So if you have. 31 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 3: Ali Baba in your portfolio, you're probably going to be fine. 32 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 3: You know, this is not something that's going to broadly 33 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 3: affect the investing climate for people who are putting their 34 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 3: money into Chinese companies. 35 00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 4: So when we talk about how narrow this has become, 36 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 4: why why is it so narrow? Why not go for 37 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 4: a big bang here if the concern is around national 38 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,279 Speaker 4: security but also messaging to China. 39 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 2: Well, you know, this is. 40 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 3: A brand new tool. So we've heard national security advisor 41 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 3: Jake Sullivan talk about a small a small yard and 42 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 3: a high fence. So this is a fence so to speak, 43 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 3: that investors have never had to confront before. You know, 44 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 3: there are specific companies that have been put on the 45 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 3: entities lists that are sanctioned that you can't invest in obviously, 46 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 3: but this is the first time that the administration really 47 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 3: I think of any country has put prohibitions on their 48 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,760 Speaker 3: country's investors investing in a subset of a sector. So 49 00:02:23,840 --> 00:02:26,399 Speaker 3: this is new, which I think is why they've made 50 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 3: it very narrow and like I said, you know, this 51 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 3: is something we've been waiting to see for a long time. So, Kaylee, 52 00:02:31,520 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 3: I know it's your birthday, but we're also very excited 53 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 3: that it's Outbound Investment Review Day. 54 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 4: Woo Executive Order day, Maddie, I now have to share 55 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 4: the date of August ninth for the rest of history. 56 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 2: I mean, it's extremely rude that they didn't consult your 57 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 2: birthday when thinking about the calendar for this executive order. 58 00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 2: It might have been a celebration. Yeah, exactly, exactly. But 59 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:51,679 Speaker 2: and I'm curious when you're when you're talking about the 60 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 2: kind of narrowness of this and what the goal is 61 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 2: in terms of what the Biden administration is trying to 62 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 2: achieve here. I know that Biden is also trying to 63 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 2: kind of refresh relations with Beijing, So how does this 64 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 2: move impact that relationship. 65 00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, the kind of moment that I was really watching 66 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 3: when it comes to this initiative. Specifically was when Treasury 67 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 3: Secretary Janet Yellen was in Beijing, and one of her 68 00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 3: primary emissions in that trip last month was to kind 69 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 3: of socialize this idea with her Chinese counterparts and make 70 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 3: sure that they understand what this is and what it's not, 71 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 3: and what this scope would be. And she emphasized over 72 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,359 Speaker 3: and over again that this is going to be narrow. 73 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 3: You know, the main goal of this initiative is to 74 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 3: make sure that US venture capitalists, you know, private equity 75 00:03:35,400 --> 00:03:39,680 Speaker 3: is not kind of seating these Chinese companies that are 76 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 3: then going to be supplying the Chinese military with critical 77 00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 3: technology that could be used against the United States, not 78 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 3: even in an open conflict, but just in kind of 79 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 3: you know. 80 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 2: Opaque ways. 81 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 3: So you know, this is very it's a very specific goal, 82 00:03:55,440 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 3: and she, you know, Yellen has said over and over again, 83 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 3: this is not something that's going to really tip the 84 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 3: balance of the broader investment relationship between the two world's 85 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 3: two largest economies. 86 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 4: All Right, Anna Edgerton, Bloomberg Tech and National Security reporter, 87 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 4: great Scoop, thank you so much for keeping track of 88 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 4: this story. It's been a long, long time coming. We 89 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 4: want to get another take now on what this actually 90 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: is going to mean for the markets thinking about the 91 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 4: policy impact here. Libby Cantrell, Managing director and head of 92 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,560 Speaker 4: Public Policy at PIMCO, is joining us now, So lebby 93 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 4: four investors, how should they be thinking about the implications 94 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 4: of this given it is narrower now? 95 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 5: Yes, well, good afternoon and happy birthday Kiwie. Thank yeah. 96 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 5: So this is part I think this is something that's 97 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 5: important to contextualize because this is of course as part 98 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 5: of a really a broader approach that in many ways 99 00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 5: was started under the Trump administration, which of course includes tariffs, 100 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 5: includes export controls and i've seen under the Biden administration 101 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 5: on semiconductors and likely other technologies that are forthcoming. And 102 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,520 Speaker 5: then of course it also includes sort of tighter scipious 103 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 5: investment process as well for inbound capital investments to the 104 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:11,599 Speaker 5: United States from China. So again this is sort of 105 00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 5: taken in a broader in a broader context, this is 106 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 5: sort of one prong of this multi prong approach as 107 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 5: you were just discussing, though this is quite a bit 108 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 5: more limited, I think, more limited than it was really 109 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 5: originally conceived. Now I think probably more than a year ago, 110 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 5: more like eighteen months ago, because this has been sort of, 111 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 5: you know, being iterated by the various folks in the administration, 112 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 5: and I think it's really in some ways should be 113 00:05:38,880 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 5: viewed as kind of a beta because, as you noted, 114 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:46,800 Speaker 5: this is actually the US government has never done anything 115 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 5: like this. This is very this is very novel. So 116 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 5: I think in some ways this is probably represents you know, 117 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:56,640 Speaker 5: again you know, a part of a broader approach, but 118 00:05:56,760 --> 00:05:59,680 Speaker 5: also you know, in many ways, I think probably the 119 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 5: beginning of this sort of scrutiny on investors, investment capital 120 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,760 Speaker 5: from the US to you know, to China. Now, not 121 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:10,920 Speaker 5: everyone's going to be happy with this. We can talk 122 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 5: about the congressional dynamics representative of Mike Gallagher or the 123 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 5: chairman of the US House Luck Committee on China, has 124 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 5: already you know, previewed is I think, frustration with this 125 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 5: sort of more watered down approach. But again, I think 126 00:06:25,640 --> 00:06:28,160 Speaker 5: from an investment perspective, this should be viewed as sort 127 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 5: of one prong and a multi prong approach, and something 128 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 5: that's probably going to be again more the beginning than 129 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 5: the end interest in terms of more scrutiny on on 130 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 5: outbound capital going from the US to China. 131 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 2: So in terms of this being the beginning and not 132 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 2: the end, Libby, is this something that investors should start 133 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 2: to be looking at more closely, maybe getting a little 134 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 2: bit concerned about just how big could the reach get here? 135 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 5: Well, and this is something that you know, we're talking 136 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,120 Speaker 5: to our US based clients quite a bit, and what 137 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 5: we're you know, what we're seeing, you know, from a 138 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 5: practical perspective is that there is is, there's already been 139 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 5: in many ways some self sanctioning behavior, i e. The 140 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 5: political risk of investing in China has now increased to 141 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 5: such an extent for some some clients, for some investors 142 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 5: that they're just simply withdrawing or at least pairing back 143 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 5: what kind of new investments that are in the pipeline. 144 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,760 Speaker 5: And so, you know, I would be surprised if, you know, 145 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:30,559 Speaker 5: even though the policy might be kind of watered down here, 146 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 5: if the practical implication for you know, many investors who 147 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 5: just again don't want to deal with the kind of 148 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 5: the political headache here, not to mention of course that 149 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 5: US that China may be less of a desirable investment target, 150 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 5: just because of their own kind of economic issues that 151 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 5: they're they're dealing with, that they might just start kind 152 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 5: of retreating or at least, you know, pairing back some investment. 153 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 5: So I think it would be you know, I think 154 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,560 Speaker 5: we'll see a change in behavior kind of regardless even 155 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 5: though there will be criticism that this has been sort 156 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 5: of significantly watered down Libby. 157 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 4: When we're thinking about the China policy question, how much 158 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 4: should we be paying attention truly to the administration and 159 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 4: how much is this actually a matter of Congress, which 160 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 4: seems to be a lot more hawkish on the China 161 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:15,559 Speaker 4: issue than the White House does. 162 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think this is something that we keep 163 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 5: saying to our clients, especially as we think about the 164 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 5: twenty twenty four election, that the direction of travel on 165 00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 5: all of this is relatively clear and I think is 166 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 5: agnostic in terms of who's actually sitting in the in 167 00:08:31,560 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 5: the White House to some extent, right, there are going 168 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 5: to be kind of different degrees and sort of shades 169 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 5: here in terms of approach and style, but it's you know, 170 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 5: it's pretty clear that with Congress, as you note, sort 171 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 5: of more hawkish and likely kind of leaning in and 172 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,719 Speaker 5: trying to put more pressure on whomever's sitting in the 173 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 5: White House in twenty twenty five, that this is again 174 00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 5: more what we'll see more of this now. In terms 175 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 5: of sort of practically from a policy perspective, it really 176 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 5: is the administration that holds the pen here because even 177 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 5: though Congress, much of Congress is more hawkish, they you know, 178 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:10,520 Speaker 5: Congress can't agree on many things, and they haven't been 179 00:09:10,520 --> 00:09:12,719 Speaker 5: able to really agree on approach and approach here. I 180 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 5: think we've talked about this before. There was an amendment 181 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 5: to the National Defense Authorization Act, the NDAA that passed 182 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,839 Speaker 5: the Senate by a very bipartisan basis I think was 183 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 5: ninety one to six most recently, but that was just 184 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 5: a disclosure kind of based regime in terms of outbound investment. 185 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 5: So even that didn't go sort of as far in 186 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 5: some ways as what this EO likely is going to do, 187 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 5: because it didn't have any sort of blocking or sort 188 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 5: of prohibition, you know, types of provision. So I think 189 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 5: that that sort of shows you that while there is 190 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 5: a lot of rhetoric from Congress, that actually to really 191 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 5: legislate on this stuff is still relatively high bar. So 192 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 5: the administration will still you know, will still matter, but 193 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 5: the hawkish, as we believe, will kind of continue again 194 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 5: regardless of who's in the White House come twenty twenty five. 195 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:57,880 Speaker 2: Well, Libby, I'm curious when you look at a move 196 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 2: like this how it plays in to your overall thinking 197 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: when it comes to Biden's economics scorecard. Where are you 198 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,439 Speaker 2: thinking and how is your thinking changed on how President 199 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:12,560 Speaker 2: Biden has handled the economy when you look at a 200 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 2: move like this. 201 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 5: Yeah, and I think in some ways, again, as you 202 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 5: all noted, this was so well telegraphed that is not surprising, 203 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 5: and in some ways it's a relief to know, you know, 204 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 5: when we actually see the details of the EO will 205 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 5: be it will be a relief because we've been talking 206 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 5: about this with our clients for for a while. I mean, 207 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 5: I think broadly in terms of you know, the so 208 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 5: called you know Bidenomics, you know, there is I think 209 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 5: the administration you know, is really leaning into all of 210 00:10:39,040 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 5: the very strong, you know, economic data, and for a 211 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 5: good reason, right, I mean, Unemployment is very low, inflation 212 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 5: is coming down, you know, growth is sort of remaining robust, 213 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 5: and the consumers hanging in there. Yeah. The thing what 214 00:10:51,240 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 5: we've discussed before However, you know, there are some potential 215 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 5: headwinds on the horizon that make that strategy somewhat risky. 216 00:10:59,400 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 6: You know. 217 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 5: There we've talked about the resumption of student loan payments, 218 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 5: We've talked about kind of thanks, you know, pulling back 219 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 5: on consumer consumer credit, the fact that a lot of 220 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 5: folks actually haven't had to pay their last year's tax 221 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 5: bill because they live in these emergency zones, and that's 222 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 5: coming in October first. So I think it's you know, 223 00:11:16,040 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 5: I mean again for good reason if you just look 224 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 5: at the economic data. But as a political strategy, it 225 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 5: might be a bit risky if if the economy actually 226 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:26,800 Speaker 5: does slow down because of some of these headwinds, and 227 00:11:26,840 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 5: then he owns it. So he's owned it on the upside, 228 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 5: but he might own it on the downside as well. Clearly, though, 229 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 5: I don't think the administration thinks that there will be 230 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 5: a recession, and that's why they have so, you know, 231 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 5: full so full heartedly kind of leaned into this rhetoric. 232 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,559 Speaker 4: Well, le' be on the subject of the economy, I 233 00:11:43,640 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 4: know we've spoken with you often on this show about 234 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 4: how a shutdown wouldn't necessarily have the same dramatic horrible 235 00:11:50,720 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 4: economic ramifications of a potential default would. But it also 236 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 4: strikes me that, especially in the context of the fact 237 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 4: that the economy is still strong, Fitch still downgraded the US, 238 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:03,520 Speaker 4: stripped of its triple A rating last week, and in 239 00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 4: your research that you put out earlier this week, you 240 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 4: said that downgrade actually only increases the chances of a 241 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 4: government shutdown this fall. Can you explain that reasoning? 242 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, it's himlart ironic, right, because one of 243 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 5: the reasons when I Fitch downgraded you know, the US 244 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 5: from triple A to double A plus was citing the 245 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 5: sort of the political standoffs and the dysfunction around some 246 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 5: of these big full fiscal inflection points. Now, of course, 247 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 5: I do you know, we have the note that actually 248 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 5: Congress did come to an agreement with you know, relatively 249 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 5: low volatility and actually kind of before the actual X state, 250 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 5: so they were in that way they actually you know, overachieved. 251 00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 5: But still the point does stand. Of course, we were 252 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 5: just getting used to the debt ceiling fights and government 253 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,800 Speaker 5: shutdowns and what have you. But ironically, as I did 254 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 5: point out in our client note, that this actually could 255 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 5: increase the chances of a government shutdown. The reason is 256 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 5: is because what we're already seeing as many House Republicans 257 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 5: are walking away from the spending limits that were agreed 258 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 5: to in the part of the debt Sailing Resolution. As 259 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 5: part of that resolution, just as a reminder, spending limits 260 00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 5: for twenty twenty four and twenty twenty five were agreed 261 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 5: to and of course pass and sign into a lot. 262 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 5: Now some House Republicans want to actually cut those spending cuts. 263 00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 5: They want to actually fund the government at about one 264 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:27,000 Speaker 5: hundred billion dollars. 265 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 6: Less than that. 266 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 5: Now, this is all kind of eating around the edges because, 267 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:32,760 Speaker 5: as we've talked about, discretionary spending is only about a 268 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 5: quarter of the federal budget. But still they feel like 269 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 5: now Fitch downgrading the US just hardens that point of 270 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,080 Speaker 5: view that the US does need to get its fiscal 271 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,400 Speaker 5: house in order, so to speak. So I think in 272 00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 5: some ways this just makes it more likely. We already 273 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 5: thought it was actually relatively likely for a shutdown what 274 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:55,199 Speaker 5: happened this fall. I think this actually just increases the chances, 275 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 5: because again, it just sort of hardens that stance for 276 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 5: some of these fiscal conservatives to to not vote for anything, 277 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 5: even though you know, I think arguably they did agree 278 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:06,160 Speaker 5: to some of these spending moments as part of the 279 00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:07,320 Speaker 5: debt ceiling resolution. 280 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 4: So much to look forward to. Libby Cantrell, Managing Director 281 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,840 Speaker 4: and head of Public Policy at PIMCO, thank you very 282 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 4: much for joining us and Maddie. It could turn into 283 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 4: quite a cocktail come September and October, especially if we 284 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 4: also get an autoworker strike. 285 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 2: Oh Garry, we could Yeah, a great time for you 286 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 2: to be in DC covering a finance and financial regulation 287 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 2: for us, Kaylee. Indeed, well stick around with us for 288 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 2: more on the show, you guys, We've got a lot 289 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:39,040 Speaker 2: of great conversations coming up. Make sure to subscribe to 290 00:14:39,080 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 2: the sound On podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else 291 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts. Plus, of course you can listen 292 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,440 Speaker 2: anytime on Bloomberg dot com. We're going to talk more 293 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 2: about that election in Ohio, what it means for twenty 294 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: twenty four and specifically for voters come twenty twenty four. 295 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 2: And this is Bloomberg. 296 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 297 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: Pro live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 298 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 299 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 300 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 301 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 2: We're over a year from the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. 302 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 2: Wave the result in that Ohio election that could indicate 303 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 2: that abortion rights are still among the biggest driving issues 304 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 2: for voters. The question though, will that be among the 305 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 2: most mobilizing issues come November of twenty twenty four. Joining 306 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 2: us to discuss is our expert panel Genie shin Zeno, 307 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, and we've also got Lauren Tomlinson on 308 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 2: from steerpr, a partner and Republican strategist there. Thank you 309 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 2: both for coming on. Genie, I want to start off 310 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 2: with you because I'm curious, given what we've seen in Ohio, 311 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 2: do you think abortion continues to be among the key 312 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:55,400 Speaker 2: driving issues for voters as we head to twenty twenty four. 313 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:58,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, it is interesting if you look at 314 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 7: the polls, it is increasingly motivating Democrats, particularly although not 315 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:08,320 Speaker 7: exclusively women. It is about the same intensity for Republicans 316 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 7: who have long been very sort of mobilized by the 317 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 7: issue of abortion, so that has not changed but for Democrats, 318 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 7: the intensity is rising. And one thing Madison that I 319 00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:22,200 Speaker 7: thought was so fascinating and I think it's important to 320 00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 7: pay attention to, is that if you look at President 321 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 7: Biden's statement after the decision or the vote yesterday, he 322 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 7: never uses the word abortion. Instead, reflecting the polls, he 323 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 7: talks about this in the context of freedom. So I'm 324 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 7: not so sure it's the issue of abortion, but the 325 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 7: issue of freedom for women and others to make their 326 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 7: own health care decisions, freedom for people across the board, 327 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:48,840 Speaker 7: and that I think is going to be a driving 328 00:16:48,880 --> 00:16:52,520 Speaker 7: factor in this election, freedom and its connection to democracy 329 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 7: as opposed to abortion. Because one thing we know about voters, 330 00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,840 Speaker 7: they're not as concerned about the weeks twelve, weeks, fifteen 331 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 7: to six. They are are concerned that rights and freedoms 332 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,879 Speaker 7: are not limited or taken away, and that is a 333 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:08,359 Speaker 7: driving force in these you know, last few ballot initiatives 334 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 7: we've seen last night in Ohio and of course before 335 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 7: in Kansas and elsewhere. 336 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, to your point, Biden's saying, the democracy won in 337 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,680 Speaker 2: Ohio when voters rejected that measure. Lauren, I want to 338 00:17:19,680 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 2: bring you in here. What is your take on abortion 339 00:17:22,400 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: as a key mobilizing issue for voters come November. 340 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 6: I think Jenie's got it dead on as far as 341 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 6: it being highly mobilizing, and I think we're going to 342 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 6: see both on the Democrat and the Republican side this 343 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 6: issue have very high turnout. I was struck by the 344 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 6: numbers of people who voted in a special election in Ohio. 345 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:45,439 Speaker 6: I mean, it's the middle of summer, people are on vacation, 346 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,880 Speaker 6: they're getting their kids ready for school. This isn't exactly 347 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,160 Speaker 6: a time in which people are paying attention to politics, 348 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 6: but you know, millions of people came out for this, 349 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:56,680 Speaker 6: and I think that it struck. This is one of 350 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 6: those issues that struck the right chord of not only 351 00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 6: motive people who care deeply about the abortion issue, but 352 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,840 Speaker 6: also Ohians are going to be protective of a law 353 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:09,919 Speaker 6: that has been in place since nineteen twelve, I believe 354 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 6: nineteen oh one. Something like that was what I read. 355 00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:15,680 Speaker 6: So you know, there's a lot of play here too 356 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 6: on freedoms, protecting those freedoms not having special interests or 357 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 6: anyone else come in, and protecting people's ability to bring 358 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 6: ballot measures, which is something that the Ohians I think 359 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:27,760 Speaker 6: really said that they care about. 360 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,719 Speaker 2: Well, it was so interesting to see such a record 361 00:18:30,800 --> 00:18:34,679 Speaker 2: number of voters come out for something that typically might 362 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 2: get a little bit you know, swept under the rug 363 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:39,919 Speaker 2: when it comes to what matters most to voters, this 364 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 2: being kind of a down ballot issue here, Genie, do 365 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 2: you think that this is a sea change that voters 366 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 2: are changing their priorities when it comes to those down 367 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 2: ballot issues or is this a one off that just 368 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 2: got a lot of attention because of kind of the 369 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 2: advertising and funding around it. 370 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,520 Speaker 7: You know, I think we've seen, you know what, by 371 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 7: my count, about three of these so far, Kansas, Michigan, 372 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 7: and now Ohio. So we are seeing this, you know. 373 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:10,760 Speaker 7: And the choice of sixty some people describe as somewhat 374 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,880 Speaker 7: cynical because the referendum passed in Kansas fifty nine, Michigan 375 00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 7: fifty seven, and so they Republicans wanted to get this 376 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,439 Speaker 7: up to sixty so it may have a chance to 377 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,199 Speaker 7: stop it. In Ohio they didn't get there. But you know, 378 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 7: I'm not sure yet if I would describe it as 379 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 7: a sea change. I do think there are also dangers 380 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,800 Speaker 7: of overreading these things as we think about, you know, 381 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 7: what they pretend for an election that's over a year away. Again, 382 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 7: I described this as incredibly motivating. I think when you 383 00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 7: look at the flip side, what you were asking voters 384 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 7: to do is to reduce their own power. You're asking 385 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,359 Speaker 7: people Ohioans to go to the polls and say, you 386 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:52,320 Speaker 7: know what, I should have less power after this than 387 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:56,120 Speaker 7: I did before. That's a hard ask under any circumstances. 388 00:19:56,160 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 7: And I totally agree with Lauren when you think about 389 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,359 Speaker 7: you know, the three point one million turned out in 390 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 7: twenty fourteen for a midterm they were at like over 391 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 7: two point eight million last yesterday in August. Those are 392 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 7: big numbers. So motivating. Yes, I think see change. We 393 00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 7: have to sort of take a wait and see attitude 394 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:16,639 Speaker 7: on this. I think, you know, the Democrats should be 395 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,000 Speaker 7: very concerned about that New York Times Siena poll, so 396 00:20:19,040 --> 00:20:21,920 Speaker 7: I think overreading this can be very problematic. 397 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 2: Talk to me Genie about that poll and what your takeaway. 398 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 7: Is, Well, you know my view. I keep telling Democrats 399 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 7: be very, very upset and concerned about that poll. When 400 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,160 Speaker 7: you are looking at a poll with the economy getting better, 401 00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 7: inflation getting better, an incumbent president regardless of age, a 402 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 7: person on the other side leading who's been indicted three 403 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 7: times with a threatened fourth, and yet they are neck 404 00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,560 Speaker 7: and neck in one of the most reputable public polls 405 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 7: we have. That is a bad sign for Democrats. They 406 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:54,640 Speaker 7: have to be very, very concerned as they go forward, 407 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,200 Speaker 7: and so I do get concerned if people overread into 408 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:00,720 Speaker 7: this that Democrats are going to get out in full force. 409 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:04,600 Speaker 7: Enthusiasm matters, but it's down amongst two key groups in 410 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 7: my mind, African Americans and young people. If they don't 411 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 7: get out, Democrats have a big, big problem in that 412 00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 7: Siena New York Times poll to me was, you know, 413 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 7: should have been heartbreaking for all Democrats. 414 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 2: Talk to me, Lauren about your reaction then to both 415 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 2: that poll and just kind of where Republicans stand. I 416 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,639 Speaker 2: was going to ask you if Republicans need to adjust 417 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,920 Speaker 2: their strategy given that abortion is continuing to be a 418 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 2: driving issue for voters. But to Genie's points, when we 419 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 2: look at the polls, not as much bad news for Republicans. 420 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 6: I think when you're looking at the twenty twenty four 421 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 6: presidential election, you won't have single issue voters going out 422 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 6: and high enough numbers that are going to sway whether 423 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 6: they vote for Republican or a Democrat president. I do 424 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 6: think though, like we said, it'll be motivating, but they 425 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,600 Speaker 6: write Democrats do have a really big problem with African 426 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,959 Speaker 6: American voters and young people, and I think, you know, 427 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,160 Speaker 6: one of the things that is also going to plan 428 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 6: into this is their feelings generally about where they stand 429 00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,720 Speaker 6: in the economy. Again, this is something that's very hard 430 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 6: to predict a year out over a year out, and 431 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,920 Speaker 6: will and the Bide administration does have time to write 432 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,720 Speaker 6: this ship, but at this point there's not a lot 433 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 6: of great feelings about where we are on inflation, on wages, 434 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 6: on everyone's kitchen table budgets. And so I think with 435 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 6: that type of economic news, even though the Bide administration 436 00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,959 Speaker 6: has been touting Biden economics is something to be proud of, 437 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,920 Speaker 6: I think until people really start feeling the difference, that's 438 00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 6: going to also dampen enthusiasm. And you know, I would 439 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 6: say student loan repayment not going forward is also just 440 00:22:42,040 --> 00:22:45,439 Speaker 6: another data point of something that didn't happen, that people 441 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 6: wanted to and that Biden promised them would and so 442 00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,959 Speaker 6: regardless of the mechanics of the law of how it 443 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 6: didn't happen, it's going to be noted for people when 444 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 6: they start repaying this this coming October. I believe that 445 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,119 Speaker 6: that's going to be another strain on their budget. This 446 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:02,160 Speaker 6: is going to be another strain on their budgets under 447 00:23:02,160 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 6: this administration. 448 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, Lauren, quickly with you here, what could Republicans be doing? 449 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,400 Speaker 2: What would you advise a Republican candidate to do right 450 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 2: now to reach and get those student loan voters that 451 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 2: are starting to have to think about repaying those loans again. 452 00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 6: I think for Republicans who are not going to support 453 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:25,360 Speaker 6: any sort of forgiveness plans, I think making them understand 454 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,879 Speaker 6: that the Democrats is the messaging that I would advise 455 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 6: is making sure that they understand that the Democrats are 456 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 6: going to promise them the moon and they can't deliver. 457 00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 6: And I think that they really set themselves up for 458 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 6: this as far as the repayment when there was no 459 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,400 Speaker 6: real legal option to go forward with this, but they 460 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 6: just wanted to try to make it happen. And you know, 461 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:46,080 Speaker 6: for Republicans, I think making sure that they that they're 462 00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 6: touting the message that you will be stronger under a 463 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:54,479 Speaker 6: Republican president with my economic policies, I e. Job growth, 464 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,600 Speaker 6: low inflation, a strong free economy, and thus you will 465 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 6: be able to repay your student loans the right way 466 00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:04,720 Speaker 6: because you will be in a stronger economic position. 467 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,760 Speaker 2: Genie, final thoughts from you, either on student loans or 468 00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:11,640 Speaker 2: anything else that can move the needle for Biden versus 469 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,400 Speaker 2: Trump if that ends up being the race here. 470 00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, I have long said I think that 471 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 7: that Biden campaign is going to have to go negative, 472 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,199 Speaker 7: and they are going to have to do that in 473 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,680 Speaker 7: a concerted way if they don't see these polls changed, 474 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,120 Speaker 7: because an election is a choice, and if they he's 475 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 7: going to have to push hard on democracy and the 476 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 7: fact that you cannot trust somebody indicted three maybe four 477 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:34,920 Speaker 7: times to lead the country. 478 00:24:35,560 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 2: All right, well, we're going to have to leave it there, 479 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 2: but we are coming back to get more insight from 480 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 2: both of you, So thank you so much for sticking 481 00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 2: around with us. We've got Genie Schinzino or Bloomberg Politics 482 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 2: contributor and Lauren Tomlinson, Steer PR partner and Republican strategist, 483 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 2: giving us their insights on all things twenty twenty four. 484 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg sound On podcast. Catch us 485 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:58,679 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 486 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app. We'll work business at or listening on demand 487 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. 488 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,240 Speaker 2: We are just two weeks out from the first big 489 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 2: debate for the Republican candidates for president. They're going to 490 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 2: now receive the format for that first debate of the season. 491 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,919 Speaker 2: They've got that as of today. Two weeks from today, 492 00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 2: those participants are going to gather in Milwaukee. They'll have 493 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 2: a two hour debate that's going to be hosted by 494 00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,560 Speaker 2: Fox News. They will not have opening statements for this 495 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:28,919 Speaker 2: first round, but they're going to have forty five seconds 496 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:33,120 Speaker 2: for closing remarks. We've got some other formatting details as well. 497 00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 2: But the one big question we all still have, who's 498 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:37,959 Speaker 2: going to show up? So here to discuss, We've got 499 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 2: our expert panel back with us, Jeannie shanzena Bloomberg Politics contributor, 500 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,600 Speaker 2: and Lauren Tomlinson, Steer PR partner and Republican strategist. Genie, 501 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:49,640 Speaker 2: I want to start with you on the question about 502 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,760 Speaker 2: former President Trump suggesting that he's going to skip out 503 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,560 Speaker 2: on this debate. Should he? 504 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:58,360 Speaker 7: If I was advising him, I would say skip out, 505 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,399 Speaker 7: you know, One of the things that's Trump mentioned in 506 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,280 Speaker 7: passing was he said Ronald Reagan didn't do it. When 507 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 7: you have a big lead, you don't do it, So 508 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,760 Speaker 7: you know, you know, I would suggest he doesn't have 509 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 7: a lot to gain by going in there, particularly given 510 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:16,280 Speaker 7: all the legal challenges he's facing. That said, I find 511 00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 7: it really hard to believe that Trump is going to 512 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 7: be able to resist showing up. And I have to 513 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 7: say one of the best parts of this I heard 514 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 7: was that the RNC said he's got to give them 515 00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 7: forty eight notice hours notice, and which makes sense because 516 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 7: it's hard logistically to plan these things without knowing who's 517 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 7: going to be on the stage. 518 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 2: And yet, do you. 519 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,040 Speaker 7: Think medicine if he showed up with thirty seconds to go, 520 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 7: they wouldn't find a space for him. 521 00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:39,399 Speaker 2: Of course they would. 522 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,479 Speaker 7: So I think we're going to all be biting our 523 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,879 Speaker 7: nails until the last minute when he figures out what 524 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:44,480 Speaker 7: he's going to do. 525 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 2: I just think about all the campaign staffers having a 526 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:51,160 Speaker 2: prep notes for either scenario. They're feeling bad for them. 527 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 2: But Lauren, what do you think about this? Should President 528 00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,040 Speaker 2: former President Trump show up? 529 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 6: I think he should because I think that with all 530 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:03,919 Speaker 6: of these indictments, he's really given a lot of pause 531 00:27:04,000 --> 00:27:08,640 Speaker 6: to I think more mainstream Republican voters and people who 532 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 6: are looking for an alternative, and those are gonna be 533 00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,600 Speaker 6: the people turning into the debate. So he's not trying 534 00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 6: to necessarily maintain his lead with his core supporters who 535 00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,879 Speaker 6: have always been there, but make sure that he nullifies 536 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 6: any threat that might come from the other candidates that 537 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,199 Speaker 6: are challenging him, who obviously smell weakness because they're in 538 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,040 Speaker 6: the race. So I mean, I think that he needs 539 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 6: to show up, he needs to debate, because otherwise he's 540 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,560 Speaker 6: just giving them the floor to you know, punch a 541 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:42,159 Speaker 6: deep podium, which is exactly what you would want, you know, 542 00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:44,440 Speaker 6: in any case. But you know, like we said, they're 543 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,399 Speaker 6: prepping for both scenarios. I do think he ends up 544 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 6: showing up at the very last minute and you know, 545 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 6: just throwing bombs. It would allow him to control the narrative, 546 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 6: So I think it would be smart in anyways, But 547 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:55,719 Speaker 6: it'd be an interesting debate if he didn't show up 548 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,760 Speaker 6: to allow the others to have a little bit more 549 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:00,920 Speaker 6: space to make their argument case against him. 550 00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 2: Yeah, I wonder to what extent those eight other candidates 551 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 2: that have qualified, whether they're hoping for or against him 552 00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 2: showing up. If he doesn't, maybe they have a better 553 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 2: chance of getting a word in against former President Trump. 554 00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,120 Speaker 2: Whereas if he does, maybe they all, you know, gain 555 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 2: up on him. What do you think about that, Lauren? 556 00:28:20,760 --> 00:28:22,760 Speaker 2: What's better for those other candidates? 557 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,600 Speaker 6: I think there's higher viewership if Trump shows up, which 558 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,680 Speaker 6: is why you had the Fox News team going out 559 00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,879 Speaker 6: and asking him to show up. Susan Clark, the CEO, 560 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,200 Speaker 6: and Jay Wallace, the President apparently had dinner with him 561 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 6: to kind of make the case. So I do think 562 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:43,920 Speaker 6: that from an eyeball standpoint, you want Trump there. That 563 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,560 Speaker 6: can play two ways with the candidates. If they're ready 564 00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:50,160 Speaker 6: to go in and punch and really have land some 565 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 6: smart attacks against Trump, it's in their benefit because as 566 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,800 Speaker 6: we've seen with Republican primaries, for you know, mini cycles, now, 567 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:01,200 Speaker 6: there is always a peak, there's always a momentum with 568 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 6: a lot of the underdogs. Every know, the Republican candidates 569 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 6: will randomly start gaining momentum and voters will take a look. 570 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,360 Speaker 6: And I think that what you've seen in the polling 571 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 6: so far is people don't know who to look to, 572 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 6: right now and so the debate will provide that first 573 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:18,880 Speaker 6: kind of opportunity for voters to start listening to those messages. 574 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,920 Speaker 6: And so from that standpoint, I would say that it 575 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,000 Speaker 6: would be beneficial for Trump to show up for the 576 00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 6: other candidates. 577 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, Genie, I just have to say, I keep wondering, 578 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:29,720 Speaker 2: and I need to get over this because we've got 579 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 2: fifteen months left of this. But how much of this 580 00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 2: just comes down to a Biden Trump question and everything 581 00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 2: else that we talk about between now and then is 582 00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 2: not necessarily going to be game changing? I don't know. 583 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:43,880 Speaker 2: Can you help me make sense of that? 584 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 7: It's so true, I wonder the same thing. Are we 585 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,280 Speaker 7: just looking at a repeat? I think one of the 586 00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 7: things we are hearing from both sides is that the 587 00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 7: you know, people don't know what's going to happen. They 588 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 7: don't know what's going to happen legally, they don't know 589 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 7: what's going to happen health wise, So you know, there 590 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 7: could always be a surprise in the mix. But you know, 591 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,200 Speaker 7: just to get back to the debate for a minute, 592 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 7: I think you know, the reality is is that on 593 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 7: Fox and Friends this morning, they were downright begging Donald 594 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 7: Trump to show up because viewership will be you know, 595 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 7: just incredibly low if they don't get Donald Trump there, 596 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 7: and you know, one of the people who's got to 597 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 7: probably be you know, sort of hoping he shows up 598 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 7: for viewership, but sort of hoping he doesn't, is Brett 599 00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,560 Speaker 7: Behar because he is co hosting with Martha McCallum. And 600 00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 7: you know, Donald Trump is no friend of Brett Barret 601 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 7: at this point after that last interview, so he is 602 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 7: going to go after Brett Bhar if he is there. 603 00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,880 Speaker 7: That's gonna be fascinating to see. And also, of course 604 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:43,800 Speaker 7: he is promising counter programming if he doesn't show up 605 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,080 Speaker 7: on somebody like Tucker Carlson. So you know, this thing 606 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,320 Speaker 7: could go anyway, just like the election itself. 607 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 2: Medicine. 608 00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 7: So I wish I had a good answer for you, 609 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,640 Speaker 7: but I'm hoping it's not a repeat. But you know, 610 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,000 Speaker 7: at this point they're the leading candidates, so I think 611 00:30:58,040 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 7: it might be. 612 00:30:59,040 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 2: Well, it makes me wonder too, I think back to 613 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 2: the CNN town hall and how he shows up for 614 00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 2: that and not for a debate like this. But having 615 00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 2: said that, you know, we do have that new Gallup 616 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 2: poll showing both former President Trump and President Biden same 617 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 2: favorability ratings at forty one percent. Genie, I wonder to 618 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,840 Speaker 2: what extent does anything that Trump does or doesn't do, 619 00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 2: if he does or doesn't show up to the debate, 620 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 2: does that change that favorability rating for him? 621 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 7: You know, I don't think so, and I don't think 622 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 7: it does except around the edges for either Biden or Trump. 623 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:35,200 Speaker 7: They are both, you know, former presidents or current president. 624 00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 7: They are both incredibly well known. It's not like these 625 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 7: people are just being introduced to the American public by 626 00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 7: any stretch of the imagination. The one thing we do 627 00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 7: here repeatedly from the Republican base is that one more 628 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:51,280 Speaker 7: indictment may sway them more toward President Trump. But I 629 00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 7: don't get the sense that that is because they're learning 630 00:31:53,640 --> 00:31:55,360 Speaker 7: something new about him or they're going to see him 631 00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:58,200 Speaker 7: more favorably. It's the other side that they're angry at 632 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,719 Speaker 7: that might push them over to that edge. So I 633 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 7: don't think we're seeing going to see their favorables change 634 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,160 Speaker 7: that much. This is going to be an election if 635 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 7: it's Trump versus Biden once again, like twenty sixteen and 636 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 7: twenty twenty, where both of the major party candidate candidates 637 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,920 Speaker 7: are wildly unpopular. Unfortunately. 638 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:17,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like another round of the same when 639 00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 2: it comes to what we're going to be talking about 640 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,160 Speaker 2: heading into twenty twenty four. Thank you Genie sheen Zo 641 00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:26,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor and Lauren Tomlinson, Steer PR partner and 642 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 2: Republican strategists joining us to discuss that coming up debate 643 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,640 Speaker 2: two weeks from today. Obviously, we'll be covering all of 644 00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 2: the updates for you right here at Bloomberg, so be 645 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 2: sure to stick with us for all of the debate 646 00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 2: coverage that you need. 647 00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the 648 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:48,480 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 649 00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,880 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 650 00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:54,880 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 651 00:32:54,880 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 652 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,840 Speaker 2: All right, Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, we got to 653 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:08,360 Speaker 2: talk about her because she was hospitalized on Tuesday. She 654 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,520 Speaker 2: fell in her San Francisco home. She's now back at home. 655 00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 2: No serious injuries reported, but it's yet another incident for 656 00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,240 Speaker 2: the senator and brings up a lot more questions about 657 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,840 Speaker 2: her health and the overall situation when it comes to 658 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 2: these members of Congress and how they're doing in terms 659 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 2: of age and health. So we're going to talk to 660 00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:30,160 Speaker 2: our panel a little bit about this at Genie Schanzano, 661 00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:34,040 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's politics contributor and Lauren Tomlinson's steer PR partner and 662 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,280 Speaker 2: Republican strategists still on with us, Jeanie. This kind of 663 00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 2: puts Senator Feinstein's peers in a tough spot as well, right. 664 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 7: It does, and we have heard them, you know, quietly 665 00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:51,120 Speaker 7: discussing this. We have seen, unfortunately, as she's had trouble, 666 00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:54,200 Speaker 7: she was out for a while earlier this year, she 667 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,680 Speaker 7: came back, she had trouble with some of the votes, 668 00:33:57,720 --> 00:34:01,320 Speaker 7: you know, amongst many other things. In clue in this discussion, 669 00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 7: there's also real discussions about gender. We've had men who 670 00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,600 Speaker 7: have served in the Senate for a long time and 671 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,680 Speaker 7: of older ages like Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd, and 672 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,440 Speaker 7: you know, the reality for women is they tend to 673 00:34:15,640 --> 00:34:19,440 Speaker 7: enter politics later due to issues involving family and children, 674 00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,759 Speaker 7: and they want to serve later because they want to 675 00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:25,480 Speaker 7: make their mark in that way. And so this has 676 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,000 Speaker 7: become a real question. And I don't think there is 677 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 7: any easy answer to this. I mean, I think we're 678 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 7: all just very happy to hear she is okay, but 679 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,320 Speaker 7: it is a tough thing for both her, her family 680 00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:36,320 Speaker 7: and her colleagues. 681 00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:36,640 Speaker 1: Yeah. 682 00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:38,560 Speaker 2: Well, and to your point, Genie, she's not the only 683 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 2: one who has had some health issues and some very 684 00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:45,640 Speaker 2: public health issues as of late. I think about Mitch McConnell, 685 00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:50,080 Speaker 2: for example, when he was struggling at the hot Mic Lauren, 686 00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,840 Speaker 2: what do you make of the dichotomy when it comes 687 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 2: to the different ways that different officials are being talked 688 00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,400 Speaker 2: about when it comes to their health and their age. 689 00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,240 Speaker 6: I don't see as much of a dichotomy here, because 690 00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,799 Speaker 6: you know, when the hot night happened with McConnell and 691 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,279 Speaker 6: when he fell during that fundraising event. I think a 692 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 6: lot of the conversations were very similar to what we're 693 00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,960 Speaker 6: talking about with Diane Feinstein, which is quietly people raising 694 00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:18,600 Speaker 6: a lot of concerns, the media obviously talking about it 695 00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:22,040 Speaker 6: a good bit, and the you know, the question being 696 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:26,680 Speaker 6: about age in general of our politicians, how the average 697 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,320 Speaker 6: age of Congress has gone up, how we might potentially 698 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:32,360 Speaker 6: have two eighty year olds running for president, and so 699 00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,520 Speaker 6: I think that generally age and you know, maybe it 700 00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 6: reflects you know, a moment in time too, as we're 701 00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,919 Speaker 6: kind of entering into a period where our average age 702 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,319 Speaker 6: as Americans are growing up as well, where we're going 703 00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:46,920 Speaker 6: to have to contend with this where you know, boomers 704 00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:48,880 Speaker 6: are not retiring from the office the way that some 705 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:50,640 Speaker 6: of the younger generation would like them too. I think 706 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,319 Speaker 6: there's a lot of parallels between what we're seeing in 707 00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 6: Congress and also what we're seeing in the workplace. But 708 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:57,400 Speaker 6: I will say I do think that this is a 709 00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,799 Speaker 6: little of homestake politics as well. With Diane Feinstein. You know, 710 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 6: at some point the state party needs to get in 711 00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,120 Speaker 6: front of her and talk about realistically how she serves 712 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,480 Speaker 6: going forward. And again, the Senate has a long tradition 713 00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:13,560 Speaker 6: of people sitting there for a long time, you know, 714 00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,120 Speaker 6: in their wheelchairs. So I don't think that there needs 715 00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,960 Speaker 6: to be undue pressure for her to leave until she's ready. However, 716 00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,359 Speaker 6: you know they do have. It's not they're not going 717 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:26,319 Speaker 6: to see the state seed the seat to a Republican 718 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,560 Speaker 6: governors can appoint someone when they're ready, and he has 719 00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:35,239 Speaker 6: promised to appoint a black female into that Senate seat. 720 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 6: And so I think there's a little bit of the 721 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,120 Speaker 6: home state politics coming to play here, where they're trying 722 00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,160 Speaker 6: to figure out the timing for that and who would 723 00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,840 Speaker 6: be the right person to appoint, and when they're ready, 724 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,320 Speaker 6: they may have a more serious conversation with Senator Feinstein 725 00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 6: about stepping down. 726 00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,359 Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, it's interesting you bring up the ages of 727 00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,320 Speaker 2: the potential presidential candidates as well, because we've been talking 728 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 2: about that new Gallup poll today that talks about former 729 00:36:58,680 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 2: President Trump and President Biden in but what we haven't 730 00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,319 Speaker 2: talked about is that First Lady Jill Biden is one 731 00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:07,440 Speaker 2: of only two Americans to get a favorable rating in 732 00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:10,279 Speaker 2: that poll. Genie, we got about twenty seconds left here, 733 00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,080 Speaker 2: But do you think the Biden campaign needs to be 734 00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,960 Speaker 2: bringing First Lady Biden out on the trail a little 735 00:37:17,000 --> 00:37:17,359 Speaker 2: bit more? 736 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:21,480 Speaker 7: They absolutely do. She is, you know, the most popular 737 00:37:21,600 --> 00:37:23,720 Speaker 7: of the Bidens and of the people on the campaign 738 00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:25,440 Speaker 7: trail right now, so they need to get her out 739 00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 7: there as much as possible. 740 00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,319 Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems like it if you look at this 741 00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 2: Gallup pole. For sure, there Jeanie Shenzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor 742 00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:37,680 Speaker 2: and Lauren Tomlinson, STEERPR partner and Republican strategist in for us. 743 00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to The Sound On podcast. 744 00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,640 Speaker 7: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 745 00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 7: and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and. 746 00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:51,719 Speaker 1: You can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 747 00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,960 Speaker 1: at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com