WEBVTT - Dave Nadig on Exchange-Traded Funds

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<v Speaker 1>M. This is Mesters in Business with Very Results on

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<v Speaker 1>Bluebird Radio. This week on the podcast, I have an

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<v Speaker 1>extra special guest. His name is Dave Nodded. And if

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<v Speaker 1>this sounds like to all friends just yammering about all

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<v Speaker 1>sorts of market eso ica, well that's because it is.

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<v Speaker 1>I know Dave for a long time, and we kinda

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<v Speaker 1>fell in love with each other's books, music, film, and

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<v Speaker 1>financial history when we first met a hundred years ago.

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<v Speaker 1>And so if it sounds like just too idiots talking

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<v Speaker 1>about really interesting stuff in great detail, and me probably

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<v Speaker 1>speaking more than I usually do during the podcast, well

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<v Speaker 1>that's probably because it is. Um. Dave is really a

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<v Speaker 1>fascinating person with an incredible depth of knowledge about well.

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<v Speaker 1>He's probably best known as the E T F guy,

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<v Speaker 1>and we literally talk about during the show. I got

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<v Speaker 1>tagged to present to the SEC about their new single

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<v Speaker 1>stock product, and my answer was, well, I get all

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<v Speaker 1>my information about this from nating. Why don't you speak

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<v Speaker 1>to him? And they said, we already do. But he

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<v Speaker 1>also has an incredible death of knowledge about market structures,

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<v Speaker 1>about what people get wrong about thinking about systems, about

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<v Speaker 1>what we get wrong about humans and capitalism and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>and I find Dave to be really just an intriguing,

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<v Speaker 1>fascinating guy, full of great humility and insights. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think you'll find this conversation to be really fascinating. With

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<v Speaker 1>no further ado, my interview with vertifies Dave noting, let's

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<v Speaker 1>start in thees when you were at Barclays, which eventually

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<v Speaker 1>becomes black Rock, I shares tell us about what you

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<v Speaker 1>did at Barclays. Oh, I mean mostly I got coffee

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<v Speaker 1>at the beginning, you know, and I joined, Uh, they

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<v Speaker 1>gave me the hypho leading title of Managing Director of

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<v Speaker 1>Corporate Strategy. What it really meant was I was picking

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<v Speaker 1>up little businesses nobody else wanted to pay any attention

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<v Speaker 1>to through all the acquisitions they were doing so. For

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<v Speaker 1>a while I ran Wells Fargo's four O win K

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<v Speaker 1>business because they had acquired that as part of Wells

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<v Speaker 1>Fargo Nico Investment Advisors when we did the Barkley's acquisition.

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<v Speaker 1>When Barkley's acquired Wells Fargo Nico, I then spent most

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<v Speaker 1>of my time in Asia shutting down Barkley's Dessert Wed businesses,

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<v Speaker 1>which were brokerage shops in Australia and Singapore Hong Kong, Japan. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>So I went around and sort of did some rationalization.

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<v Speaker 1>They basically sent the young kid out to get his

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<v Speaker 1>you know, you know what, handed go go go fire

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of you know, Japanese salaryman that that had

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<v Speaker 1>to be a crazy experience being in Australia and Japan

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<v Speaker 1>in the nineties. It was. It was bonkers, and I

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<v Speaker 1>was very To be clear, I was young and incredibly stupid.

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<v Speaker 1>Now I'm just older and slightly less. Isn't that a

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<v Speaker 1>little redundant I say this. I say this not to

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<v Speaker 1>mock the young, but to reflect on my own youthful

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<v Speaker 1>indiscretions and stupidity. The story of growing a career is

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<v Speaker 1>recognizing how little you knew every previous five years, Yes exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>that five year review was like, wow, I had no

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<v Speaker 1>idea what the hell I was doing? Now I know,

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<v Speaker 1>and then you find out you really don't. So I started.

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<v Speaker 1>I started there. I was lucky enough to be on

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<v Speaker 1>the edges of a product which became webs, which became

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<v Speaker 1>I shares Um. I was absolutely not somebody driving the

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<v Speaker 1>train on that. I was the one reviewing, marketing copy

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, doing presentations to groups of institutions about

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<v Speaker 1>how to use the darn things. Who was driving the

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<v Speaker 1>train on that Oh my gosh, there were so many,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, success as a thousand fall others

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<v Speaker 1>at this point. And the folks that I mean, so

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<v Speaker 1>the people I was working with on the Wells Fai

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<v Speaker 1>Niko side because this was a joint project with Stanley

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<v Speaker 1>and other folks like that. UM, I was working with

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<v Speaker 1>Don Lusk and Patty Donne Fred Grower were sort of

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<v Speaker 1>the main group. Blake Grossman was the chief investment. He

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<v Speaker 1>stuck around at you know, post into b g I

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<v Speaker 1>for the rest of his career. Um. And so that

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<v Speaker 1>was that was the crew that was really doing the

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<v Speaker 1>hard work there. And then you know the Morgan Stanley side.

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<v Speaker 1>I was working with folks like Joe and Hill who

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<v Speaker 1>you know, um, Marian Stanley one of the quants there.

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<v Speaker 1>UM and then of course all the folks who were

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<v Speaker 1>coming in from the Amex like Nate Most. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it was it was a pretty big group of Jim

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<v Speaker 1>was he there at State Street? Um? After that was

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<v Speaker 1>that was Jim Ross was at State Street a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit after that when that was but that was you know,

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<v Speaker 1>when the Spiders build out this was very much counter

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<v Speaker 1>to to spy having been launched. So we were the

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<v Speaker 1>other side of the fence from that. Even though AMX

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<v Speaker 1>was the key, you know, AMEX was the glue holding

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<v Speaker 1>it together because they figured out a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>how to do creation, redemption, and how to handle book.

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<v Speaker 1>So let me fast forward a couple of years. You

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<v Speaker 1>end up at et F dot com, which clearly is

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<v Speaker 1>a or at least at the time was a dominant

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<v Speaker 1>force in the E t F space when a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the world of finance looked at ETFs a little scans,

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<v Speaker 1>a little skeptical like yeah, And that was really Jim Wyant.

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<v Speaker 1>He started something called the Index Universe with Stephen Showen

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<v Speaker 1>Fell somebody else you know in the industry UM who's

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<v Speaker 1>now working for I believe Market Beckers in Texas UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, they they had this vision of understanding

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<v Speaker 1>that E T S which at that point we're still

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<v Speaker 1>largely institutional vehicles early two thousand's right. I mean there

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<v Speaker 1>were some advisor pick up, but you had to be

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<v Speaker 1>kind of on the front edge of finance or a

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<v Speaker 1>quant or running your own models, which in two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>three was not that common. Um they had the vision

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<v Speaker 1>there that oh no, this is where all the wealth

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<v Speaker 1>management is going to head um and built a business

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<v Speaker 1>which eventually, through you know, acquiring the right names in

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<v Speaker 1>you or else, became et F dot com. And then we,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we myself, Matt Hogan, Jim Wyant, a bunch

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<v Speaker 1>of other folks built that business up into a you know,

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<v Speaker 1>pretty respectable, chunky business that had a big conference and

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<v Speaker 1>a huge data but I was focused almost exclusively on

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<v Speaker 1>the data side. Um. And then we broke that into

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<v Speaker 1>pieces so that that was solved though, wasn't it broken?

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<v Speaker 1>So when you say broke into pieces, acquires in a

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<v Speaker 1>positive way. Yeah, Like the pieces ended up being worth

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<v Speaker 1>more than the part, which is not uncom not uncommon

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<v Speaker 1>at all, especially when you're bolting together businesses that do

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<v Speaker 1>in fact have silos themselves. So the data business was

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<v Speaker 1>a natural fit for facts that which needed usc t

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<v Speaker 1>F data. So Elizabeth K Facts is a is a big,

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<v Speaker 1>big operator on that. And now they're now there. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that that we re license the data that I

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<v Speaker 1>helped build over a verify right, I mean they are

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<v Speaker 1>now I still think the go to source for primary

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<v Speaker 1>et F data, So that business continues to run over

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<v Speaker 1>there and and you know, and now here I am

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<v Speaker 1>at Vertifi doing largely a lot of the same work,

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<v Speaker 1>also pushing a big conference that we're excited about Exchange

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<v Speaker 1>in Miami and Florida. We're gonna talk about Vertifi. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna talk about Exchange, which is one of my favorite

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<v Speaker 1>events every year. It's always a blast. Um when you

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<v Speaker 1>were running the conference beforehand. The old conference, this was

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<v Speaker 1>at the Diplomat Hotel in Hollywood, Florida, was always late

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<v Speaker 1>January early February, which occasionally went interview with my vacation schedule.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, to get out of New York in

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<v Speaker 1>February and spend time with three thousand people and just

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely a list speakers. Um, you know, Derek Jeter and

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<v Speaker 1>Go Go I remember, um Joe Montana. Like the sports

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<v Speaker 1>figures were always fascinating, but so too were the finance figures.

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<v Speaker 1>You would people that were very much rock stars in

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<v Speaker 1>that space. Yeah, and that was that was an interesting time.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's sort of the ten years pre prandemics

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<v Speaker 1>are between GFC and pandemic whatever we're gonna call that window.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not a lost decade. It was a great decade,

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<v Speaker 1>but in that window, like the I mean you were

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<v Speaker 1>on it to the conference circuit was lit. There was

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<v Speaker 1>there was a really interesting finance relevant event every other

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<v Speaker 1>week at least all year long. Well, keep in mind

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<v Speaker 1>what was going on back then. So first you had

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<v Speaker 1>the rise of ETFs. You had a radical expansion of passive.

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<v Speaker 1>My my theory is post Great Financial Crisis, mom and

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<v Speaker 1>pop said, you know, we're done playing this game. We're

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<v Speaker 1>just gonna put the money, let Mr Market do his thing,

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<v Speaker 1>and we'll find out how we did when we get

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<v Speaker 1>ready to retire. Um. But you had that, you had

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<v Speaker 1>e t F you rise a passive, but you also

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<v Speaker 1>had this incredible I'm reluctant to call it PTSD, but

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<v Speaker 1>following the financial crisis, there was this pervasive negativity that

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<v Speaker 1>lasted years and years and years. And to run around

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<v Speaker 1>and say, hey, markets are positive here, you need to

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<v Speaker 1>be more constructive because down fifty is a fantastic reset.

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<v Speaker 1>That was kind of a lonely voice for a few years.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's a big part of why you had

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<v Speaker 1>the hard metals people doing a lot of stuff. You

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<v Speaker 1>had the rise of crypto. I mean, think about that crypto.

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<v Speaker 1>Crypto is where that enthusiasm went everybody who was finance adjacent,

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<v Speaker 1>tech positive, growth oriented, all of them went into crypto

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<v Speaker 1>in that window, in that to GFC two pandemic window. Huh.

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<v Speaker 1>That that makes a whole lot of sense. So there's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of other things I want to get to

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<v Speaker 1>with you, but before we do, there's a quote of

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<v Speaker 1>yours that I think is a great leaping off point

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<v Speaker 1>for more discussion. Finance is a problem that has been solved. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so you know, when we think about finance, particularly when

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<v Speaker 1>we think about investing, which is what we spend most

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<v Speaker 1>of our time talking about, right, how to how to

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<v Speaker 1>take your wealth and turn it into more wealth through

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<v Speaker 1>all of these tools out there from you know, I,

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<v Speaker 1>P O S two derivatives. Um, how those pieces fit

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<v Speaker 1>together is no longer a mystery. I mean that's really

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<v Speaker 1>the core of it. Um, the academic side of how

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<v Speaker 1>to build a portfolio. We can argue about the details, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and certainly we could have a whole conversation about you know, Okay, well,

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<v Speaker 1>this combination of interest rates and inflation and expected returns

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<v Speaker 1>on equities is different, and so maybe we need to adjust.

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<v Speaker 1>But the tools to do that are largely baked Anybody

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<v Speaker 1>who has the curiosity and the basic intellectual capacity to

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<v Speaker 1>learn about the markets can become a fairly sophisticated investor. So,

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<v Speaker 1>if you're an advisor, and I spend most of my

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<v Speaker 1>time talking to the wealth management institutional business, if you're

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<v Speaker 1>an advisor, you should not be spending a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>your time trying to add alpha through understanding investing better

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<v Speaker 1>than the rest of the market. That is a mug's game, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So don't try to solve that problem. It's largely solved.

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<v Speaker 1>You can go get some turnkey asset management program as

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<v Speaker 1>an advisor, you could get somebody's model portfolio, or you

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<v Speaker 1>could hire some you know, three c f a s

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<v Speaker 1>and do it yourself. But it shouldn't be your primary focus.

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<v Speaker 1>Your primary focus should be solving the much harder problem,

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<v Speaker 1>which is actually working with human beings. Right. The advice

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<v Speaker 1>part of being a financial advisor is the hard part.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the part where you should earn the money. We're

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<v Speaker 1>kind of upside down and how we compensate and how

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<v Speaker 1>we think about markets. Right, some advisor that's out there

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<v Speaker 1>and can say, oh, I've generated one percent alpha for

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<v Speaker 1>the last three years in my model portfolio, everybody's going

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about that. But when you talk to that

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<v Speaker 1>same advisor and they say, yeah, you know, they are

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<v Speaker 1>these five families I've worked with for ten years, and

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<v Speaker 1>because I've worked with them, generations of wealth are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be preserved and these feel philanthropical exercises are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be put forth like that's the real success story.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't need to tell you that that's your business, right,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the real success story. And that's much harder than investing,

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<v Speaker 1>really really quite quite interesting. You have to explain to

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<v Speaker 1>me the name of this firm. I've given you grief

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<v Speaker 1>about this. What is edify? Alright? So well, the shortest

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<v Speaker 1>answer about how to think about that, if I is

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<v Speaker 1>where morning start without a ratings business? Right, So like

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<v Speaker 1>a financial think tank. Yeah, we're in the business of

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<v Speaker 1>sitting in between asset owners, financial advisors, institutions, retail and

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<v Speaker 1>asset managers right the black Rocks, State Streets, Pimco's of

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<v Speaker 1>the world, and helping them understand each other. What I

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<v Speaker 1>spend most of my time doing is helping advisors understand

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<v Speaker 1>the thousands of crazy ideas the asset management comes up

0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:50.960
<v Speaker 1>with every year. And then I work with the asset

0:11:50.960 --> 0:11:54.480
<v Speaker 1>management community to help them understand the hundreds of thousands

0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.280
<v Speaker 1>of financial advisors and institutions who may or may not

0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.719
<v Speaker 1>be interested in any of those products whatsoever. And so

0:12:00.920 --> 0:12:04.760
<v Speaker 1>what that entails is a lot of good data understanding

0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.680
<v Speaker 1>what both sides want of each other. It understands. It

0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:10.000
<v Speaker 1>means having to understand markets, because if you're gonna understand

0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:12.120
<v Speaker 1>the asset management industry, you need to understand well why

0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.600
<v Speaker 1>you're managed. Future is part of the conversation here today

0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:16.959
<v Speaker 1>but not six months ago, and it means spending a

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of time talking to individual advisors and investors who

0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:22.160
<v Speaker 1>are out there trying to do the real work. So

0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:25.560
<v Speaker 1>that's where vertify sits the company, like the meet and

0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:28.599
<v Speaker 1>the bones underneath it brands folks know on et F

0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:32.079
<v Speaker 1>trans et F database. We recently emerged with Advisor Perspectives,

0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.120
<v Speaker 1>which is the largest advisor newsletter in the country. So

0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:38.840
<v Speaker 1>we've sort of cornered a market on this dialogue between

0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:42.800
<v Speaker 1>asset managers and financial advisors, and it goes both ways.

0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:45.200
<v Speaker 1>We also do a lot of polling with financial advisors.

0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:48.120
<v Speaker 1>We meet them at conferences, we do surveys of them,

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:50.800
<v Speaker 1>We track their behavior as they're doing research using our

0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.439
<v Speaker 1>data and analytics tools, and that lets us really get

0:12:53.480 --> 0:12:57.200
<v Speaker 1>an interesting picture of Hey, what are advisors thinking this week? Well,

0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:58.840
<v Speaker 1>we can kind of tell you because we know what

0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.600
<v Speaker 1>they're researching. We know you know how they answered pole

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.040
<v Speaker 1>questions last week, we know how they answered a survey

0:13:04.080 --> 0:13:06.280
<v Speaker 1>two weeks ago, and then we write about that. We

0:13:06.400 --> 0:13:10.640
<v Speaker 1>produce fifty odd pieces of content today. So here's the question.

0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:15.000
<v Speaker 1>Are your clients the advisors or are your clients the

0:13:15.120 --> 0:13:18.560
<v Speaker 1>institutional asset managers? Or both? Both? Is the real answer?

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:20.360
<v Speaker 1>I think the way to think about this is we're

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:23.199
<v Speaker 1>a business to business organization in terms of where you know,

0:13:23.200 --> 0:13:25.240
<v Speaker 1>if you're gonna look at the revenue lines, but with

0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:28.600
<v Speaker 1>b TWOC responsibilities, right, we take our relationship with the

0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:32.960
<v Speaker 1>financial advisor very very seriously. In my position, that's really

0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 1>almost exclusively what I focus on, all right, And this

0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:38.800
<v Speaker 1>leads me to a question that I never in a

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.680
<v Speaker 1>million years thought I would get to ask on this show.

0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:46.400
<v Speaker 1>But what the hell is the financial futurist? Your title

0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:50.480
<v Speaker 1>is a financial futurist? Yes, who came up with that? Who?

0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:54.840
<v Speaker 1>What are the responsibilities? What does a financial futurist do?

0:13:55.280 --> 0:13:56.920
<v Speaker 1>Like I expect you to be in one of little

0:13:56.920 --> 0:14:02.240
<v Speaker 1>storefronts with the red light people to win financial and

0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:06.160
<v Speaker 1>I hand you a card to the glass Madame Zolof

0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:07.920
<v Speaker 1>with the turban on in the whole night Year, it's

0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:12.320
<v Speaker 1>like big thank you here and I think it's actually

0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 1>a dude in the movie, but it is neither here

0:14:14.520 --> 0:14:17.240
<v Speaker 1>nor there. Um. So look about a year ago. I

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 1>had a conversation with the senior management of the company

0:14:19.480 --> 0:14:21.880
<v Speaker 1>as we were putting Verified together, right, and we would

0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, one of the things we use as a

0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 1>hook when we talk about the company is we're trying

0:14:25.920 --> 0:14:27.760
<v Speaker 1>to turn it from an industry to a community. What

0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:30.760
<v Speaker 1>we mean by that is that we focus on finance

0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 1>a lot on rules, regulations, process operations, none of which

0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:38.280
<v Speaker 1>matter at all, and we've often just ignore the fact

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.240
<v Speaker 1>that they're human beings at the end of this equation.

0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Now that's changed because of a lot of what's going

0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:44.720
<v Speaker 1>in behavioral finance, and I think that's great. I don't

0:14:44.720 --> 0:14:47.600
<v Speaker 1>think it goes nearly far enough. I think human centered

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:50.760
<v Speaker 1>organizations are always going to win, So we really tried

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:54.480
<v Speaker 1>to skew the organization towards that. So with that context,

0:14:54.560 --> 0:14:56.080
<v Speaker 1>I said, here's a bunch of stuff I want to

0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 1>write about, which is the stuff we've been talking about,

0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:00.960
<v Speaker 1>how the markets work, how people it into them. And

0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:03.600
<v Speaker 1>I literally just started putting adjectives and nouns on piece

0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 1>of paper, trying to figure out, like, well, how do

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 1>I describe the work that I think I should be

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:10.760
<v Speaker 1>doing and that hopefully people find at least entertaining, if

0:15:10.760 --> 0:15:13.480
<v Speaker 1>not valuable. Uh and a little from column A little

0:15:13.480 --> 0:15:16.080
<v Speaker 1>column B. You know, I've spent most of my career

0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:19.120
<v Speaker 1>writing and thinking about finance. Most of what I've done

0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 1>has been taking an understanding of the status quo, which

0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.360
<v Speaker 1>is very brief because next tomorrow it's gone, and trying

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:28.400
<v Speaker 1>to help people understand what that means for next week,

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:31.240
<v Speaker 1>in the next year, and the next decade, to position

0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:34.720
<v Speaker 1>products underneath it, like a t S in two or

0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:39.280
<v Speaker 1>model portfolios in two thousand, or direct indexing in two right,

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 1>really trying to focus on that. Now it would be

0:15:41.480 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 1>tokenized asset management. It's like, you can see these things

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 1>if you're paying attention, but it's super easy to get

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.480
<v Speaker 1>really excited and spend lots of money chasing them. Having

0:15:50.480 --> 0:15:53.480
<v Speaker 1>some context is important. So you mentioned direct indexing. Let's

0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:58.680
<v Speaker 1>go there because I always disliked the broad context of

0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:03.080
<v Speaker 1>direct indexing as how it was done previously. I couldn't

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:07.600
<v Speaker 1>stand the fifty pages of stockholdings every month or every quarter.

0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 1>But I give you credit for the person who kind

0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:13.160
<v Speaker 1>of turned me around on that. I don't want to

0:16:13.200 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>say it was ten years ago, but it was probably

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.920
<v Speaker 1>like five years ago, maybe a little longer that you

0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.680
<v Speaker 1>pointed out there are a lot of things you can

0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:25.240
<v Speaker 1>do with direct indexing in terms of and you were

0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:28.320
<v Speaker 1>way ahead of the software. You had talked about things

0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:31.800
<v Speaker 1>before it was available, that you could tilt towards a

0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 1>variety of e s g. Things, Hey show me companies

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:38.960
<v Speaker 1>where the board has at least two women on it,

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.360
<v Speaker 1>or you could tilt towards value where you could tilt

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.960
<v Speaker 1>towards small cap, or you could use it for tax

0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.640
<v Speaker 1>lost harvesting or philanthropy. And you kind of opened my

0:16:49.680 --> 0:16:54.040
<v Speaker 1>eyes up. Full disclosure. We work with O'shanna Sees Canvas,

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:57.280
<v Speaker 1>which was recently purchased by Franklin Templeton, and we're the

0:16:57.360 --> 0:16:59.840
<v Speaker 1>largest client to that about a billion of three billions

0:16:59.840 --> 0:17:03.240
<v Speaker 1>in at But I give you credit because if you

0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:06.520
<v Speaker 1>hadn't opened my eyes to the advantages of what you

0:17:06.560 --> 0:17:09.919
<v Speaker 1>can do with that. Um, we might not have stepped

0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.879
<v Speaker 1>as aggressively into it as we did. I was primed

0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:16.640
<v Speaker 1>two and receptive to see the things that were possible.

0:17:16.680 --> 0:17:20.600
<v Speaker 1>So full credit to you. Now tell us about what

0:17:20.760 --> 0:17:25.199
<v Speaker 1>is tokenized financial investments? Well, so you know, if you

0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 1>think about right now, I have a million dollars I

0:17:27.600 --> 0:17:28.680
<v Speaker 1>want to put the work I wish I have a

0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:30.840
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand dollars I want to put to work. I

0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.359
<v Speaker 1>have lots of different ways I can get that number

0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:35.719
<v Speaker 1>to go up, and ultimately, let's be honest, that's what

0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:37.359
<v Speaker 1>you care about. As an individual investor, I have a

0:17:37.400 --> 0:17:39.280
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand dollars, I would like to have a hundred

0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:41.800
<v Speaker 1>and ten thousand dollars? How do I get there? And

0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:43.959
<v Speaker 1>right now we throw it into the stock market, and

0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:47.639
<v Speaker 1>we effectively use a tokenized system, right, I mean, nobody

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:51.000
<v Speaker 1>really carries shares around anymore. You want, you gotta led

0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:54.000
<v Speaker 1>your entry at seeding company down on Water Street, right like,

0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:57.119
<v Speaker 1>It's it's all just this fiction that we've created to

0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 1>keep track of notional ownership, and then we built this

0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.560
<v Speaker 1>enormous infrastructure around it. So now we have payment for

0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:07.240
<v Speaker 1>order flow and seventeen market centers and you know, reagaan

0:18:07.400 --> 0:18:10.440
<v Speaker 1>MS judging who what has to get broadcast to who.

0:18:10.440 --> 0:18:12.680
<v Speaker 1>When we made all this up, I think it's really

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.919
<v Speaker 1>important to remember this is fiction. We just created the

0:18:15.920 --> 0:18:18.440
<v Speaker 1>system out of whole cloth. You can trace why, and

0:18:18.680 --> 0:18:21.320
<v Speaker 1>there's lots of reasons, but you could invent another one.

0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:24.560
<v Speaker 1>Inventing another one is what crypto has done. If you're

0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:26.960
<v Speaker 1>in Europe right now, for instance, and you open up

0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:29.639
<v Speaker 1>an account at ft X dot d E, which is

0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:32.200
<v Speaker 1>you know f t X is European business in Germany,

0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:35.520
<v Speaker 1>you can trade Tesla, but not as a stock. You

0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:39.199
<v Speaker 1>can trade what is effectively a fungible token, right, a

0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:41.840
<v Speaker 1>unit of Tesla. You and I can trade that in

0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:44.919
<v Speaker 1>the ft X closed ecosystem all day long, with no

0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:48.479
<v Speaker 1>trading costs, no settlement, no slippage, no nothing. It's a

0:18:48.480 --> 0:18:51.439
<v Speaker 1>bearer instrument. It's like me handing you a pencil. You

0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:53.399
<v Speaker 1>just now have the pencil and I don't, and the

0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:55.280
<v Speaker 1>legal claim is the fact that you've got it and

0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 1>I don't. That's scary for all sorts of reasons, but

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:03.040
<v Speaker 1>it's also incredibly powerful because if you imagine that world

0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:06.040
<v Speaker 1>where instead of it being this closed ecosystem in Germany.

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:08.919
<v Speaker 1>It's just sort of how global markets work, all of

0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:12.480
<v Speaker 1>a sudden, almost any beta, any risk, any ownership stake

0:19:12.520 --> 0:19:13.960
<v Speaker 1>that you want, as long as you can get two

0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:16.840
<v Speaker 1>people to agree on what the tokens mean and how

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:20.479
<v Speaker 1>they unwind, to unlock some sort of underlying value, we

0:19:20.560 --> 0:19:23.040
<v Speaker 1>can do all sorts of crazy stuff through the crypto

0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.360
<v Speaker 1>rails that we could never have done before. You want

0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.280
<v Speaker 1>to put together a portfolio, Great, here's a smart contract.

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:30.720
<v Speaker 1>It owns these fifteen other tokens that happened to be

0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:33.800
<v Speaker 1>stocks that can be managed in real time by the

0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:37.800
<v Speaker 1>contract itself. Creation redemption literally just becomes buying the thing

0:19:38.920 --> 0:19:43.720
<v Speaker 1>redemption of right. You can create the TF on the blockchain.

0:19:43.760 --> 0:19:46.040
<v Speaker 1>People have already done this. This is not news. Um.

0:19:46.080 --> 0:19:48.119
<v Speaker 1>There's a thing called the set product all call. You

0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:50.919
<v Speaker 1>can create a portfolio with a set of rules, and

0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:52.399
<v Speaker 1>you can even put in a fee of how much

0:19:52.440 --> 0:19:54.000
<v Speaker 1>you want to get paid because you came up with

0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:56.080
<v Speaker 1>a smart contract. And there's hundreds of thousands of these

0:19:56.119 --> 0:19:59.480
<v Speaker 1>things out there already, so the rails for doing it.

0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:02.800
<v Speaker 1>The smart to the people talking about ethere and being

0:20:02.840 --> 0:20:05.800
<v Speaker 1>the world computer, right, there's real truth to that. There's

0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:09.399
<v Speaker 1>work being done by a computer there to keep track

0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:12.520
<v Speaker 1>of ledger entries and to move those ledger entries around,

0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>which is the entire stock market. It's moving ledger entries around.

0:20:16.480 --> 0:20:19.640
<v Speaker 1>So we're recording this on the same day that Matt

0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Levine's Business Week Right dropped, like this is the second

0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:27.720
<v Speaker 1>time in Business Week's history where one writer has written

0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:32.200
<v Speaker 1>the entire book issue right. It's like fifty words, and

0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:36.080
<v Speaker 1>it begins by saying, everything in the world these days

0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:39.359
<v Speaker 1>that reflects ownership is a data database. You remind me

0:20:39.400 --> 0:20:42.400
<v Speaker 1>of that in what you were talking about UM at FTX,

0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:46.359
<v Speaker 1>which really raises the question if everything is a database

0:20:46.600 --> 0:20:51.919
<v Speaker 1>and the blockchain is a public and verifiable, transparent database.

0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:55.880
<v Speaker 1>The pushback to crypto continues to be, hey, it's been

0:20:55.880 --> 0:21:00.760
<v Speaker 1>around for fifteen years, how come it isn't doing anything

0:21:00.840 --> 0:21:05.600
<v Speaker 1>yet substantially? Why is it still so experimental and so small?

0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:09.240
<v Speaker 1>And I honestly don't know how to answer that. It's regulatory,

0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:13.520
<v Speaker 1>That's the literally the one word answer is it's regulators. Um.

0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:17.600
<v Speaker 1>The thing that is keeping the entirety of normal markets

0:21:17.600 --> 0:21:20.760
<v Speaker 1>from collapsing and being replaced by free crypto software is

0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:23.359
<v Speaker 1>that their rules that won't let that happen um and

0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:25.919
<v Speaker 1>their rules that are there for a very good reason, right.

0:21:25.920 --> 0:21:28.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we have a lot of security laws in

0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:30.960
<v Speaker 1>this country, not because we're obsessed with lawmaking, but because

0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:33.959
<v Speaker 1>some bad stuff happened and we fixed it by breaking

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.359
<v Speaker 1>rules about it, right that, you know, going back to

0:21:36.400 --> 0:21:38.960
<v Speaker 1>the twenties, actually going back to the fourteen hundreds, we

0:21:39.000 --> 0:21:42.040
<v Speaker 1>have rules about how we engage in these transactions. And

0:21:42.080 --> 0:21:44.879
<v Speaker 1>the rule of law is a big deal. How that

0:21:45.000 --> 0:21:48.240
<v Speaker 1>interacts with this sort of bear bond instrument world where

0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:53.000
<v Speaker 1>literally ownership is the entirety of the law is unknown territory. Right,

0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:55.920
<v Speaker 1>we have to rewrite how we think about intellectual property,

0:21:55.960 --> 0:21:59.000
<v Speaker 1>how we think about property rights themselves, how we think

0:21:59.040 --> 0:22:03.080
<v Speaker 1>about ownership and scrow and security is a huge one.

0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:05.920
<v Speaker 1>Knowing your customers a big one. Anti money laundring. Those

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:07.520
<v Speaker 1>are real issues. So I don't want to I don't

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:09.920
<v Speaker 1>want to pretend that those aren't real issues, and they're

0:22:09.960 --> 0:22:12.359
<v Speaker 1>going to take years to solve. This is not something

0:22:12.359 --> 0:22:15.320
<v Speaker 1>we're not gonna flip a switch tomorrow. But what I

0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:18.159
<v Speaker 1>fear is going to happen is because the block is

0:22:18.240 --> 0:22:21.119
<v Speaker 1>now regulatory, we're gonna end up in the world's biggest

0:22:21.160 --> 0:22:24.679
<v Speaker 1>regulatory arbitrage race where you're gonna and we've already seen this.

0:22:24.720 --> 0:22:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Their jurisdictions where you can kind of get away with

0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:29.400
<v Speaker 1>doing anything to do in crypto and hey, I'm sorry,

0:22:29.400 --> 0:22:31.720
<v Speaker 1>if you lost a million dollars, call interpoll, maybe they'll

0:22:31.720 --> 0:22:34.280
<v Speaker 1>figure it out for you. Right, And then there's jurisdictions

0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:37.760
<v Speaker 1>like the United States, which are quite locked down. The

0:22:38.000 --> 0:22:40.840
<v Speaker 1>problem is that if I'm right, if the world does

0:22:40.920 --> 0:22:43.960
<v Speaker 1>move more quickly towards this and you start seeing capital

0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:47.040
<v Speaker 1>follow it more than it even has already, you end

0:22:47.119 --> 0:22:49.240
<v Speaker 1>up with this weird haves and have nots world where

0:22:49.280 --> 0:22:51.199
<v Speaker 1>the United States actually ends up on the sort of

0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:54.240
<v Speaker 1>butt end of innovation UM and plays catch up for

0:22:54.280 --> 0:22:57.720
<v Speaker 1>the next twenty years, and another financial center will emerge

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:00.720
<v Speaker 1>where the I p O s are happening, where private

0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:04.560
<v Speaker 1>equity is is really congealing um, where interesting M and

0:23:04.640 --> 0:23:06.800
<v Speaker 1>A activity is happening, and it ain't gonna be New York.

0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:08.560
<v Speaker 1>I'd like to push against that. I'm kind of a

0:23:08.560 --> 0:23:11.440
<v Speaker 1>fan of the United States. I wouldn't mind us leading here.

0:23:11.480 --> 0:23:13.919
<v Speaker 1>I think you live here rules I I believe I do, yes,

0:23:14.000 --> 0:23:15.719
<v Speaker 1>So you would like to see leadership from the U

0:23:15.840 --> 0:23:18.719
<v Speaker 1>S and it. It just there. There's seems to be

0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:22.960
<v Speaker 1>no interest in a crypto et F. What's that about? Well,

0:23:23.040 --> 0:23:26.119
<v Speaker 1>just Gary ginstlur, is that more institutional? Um? So the

0:23:26.119 --> 0:23:28.919
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin ETF debate right, and gray scale is now suing

0:23:28.920 --> 0:23:31.640
<v Speaker 1>the sec always a great move. Suing your regulators always work.

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:35.960
<v Speaker 1>They love it. They just say yes after you sue them.

0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:38.359
<v Speaker 1>But here and there there. Yeah, So people have been

0:23:38.359 --> 0:23:40.840
<v Speaker 1>trying to put bitcoin in e T F rapper frankly

0:23:40.880 --> 0:23:44.199
<v Speaker 1>since bitcoin was invented um And the problem is it

0:23:44.240 --> 0:23:46.520
<v Speaker 1>makes you have to define what bitcoin is because there's

0:23:46.560 --> 0:23:48.560
<v Speaker 1>certain things you can put into a mutual fund or

0:23:48.600 --> 0:23:50.560
<v Speaker 1>et F rapper and certain things you can't write. You

0:23:50.600 --> 0:23:53.080
<v Speaker 1>can't put a stake dinner in an e T F rapper.

0:23:53.200 --> 0:23:56.400
<v Speaker 1>Their rules about it, and uh, nobody has been able

0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:59.679
<v Speaker 1>to agree yet whether or not bitcoin belongs in those rappers.

0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:02.560
<v Speaker 1>So we've ended up with these weird edge cases where

0:24:02.600 --> 0:24:06.000
<v Speaker 1>the futures based products get approved, but the species based product,

0:24:06.040 --> 0:24:08.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the specie products can't be and it's it's

0:24:08.880 --> 0:24:11.639
<v Speaker 1>an absolute mess. It's the front end of the problem

0:24:11.640 --> 0:24:15.320
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about where crypt where cryptoregulation is actually the

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:17.640
<v Speaker 1>largest problem in the space. So let me push back

0:24:17.680 --> 0:24:22.840
<v Speaker 1>a bit, because I became dramatically enamored of an idea

0:24:22.960 --> 0:24:26.480
<v Speaker 1>of smart contracts and using them. Let me preface this

0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:29.160
<v Speaker 1>by saying, I'm not a big fan of ticket Master

0:24:29.280 --> 0:24:32.680
<v Speaker 1>and Live Nation, which is now monopoly. There are some

0:24:32.800 --> 0:24:36.680
<v Speaker 1>just ridiculous fees and the whole thing is just an

0:24:36.680 --> 0:24:41.000
<v Speaker 1>egregious affront to free market capitalism. Hold that aside, but

0:24:41.119 --> 0:24:47.680
<v Speaker 1>the idea behind smart tickets that if Taylor Swift says,

0:24:48.040 --> 0:24:52.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna put all of my concert seats on a blockchain,

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:56.000
<v Speaker 1>and so therefore I'm going to offer the first round

0:24:56.040 --> 0:24:58.879
<v Speaker 1>to my hardcore fans who have been newsletter subscribers for years,

0:24:59.200 --> 0:25:01.639
<v Speaker 1>and the next going to give to my junior fans,

0:25:01.680 --> 0:25:04.240
<v Speaker 1>and then the last one I'll open to the public.

0:25:04.440 --> 0:25:06.919
<v Speaker 1>And by the way, built into this is if you

0:25:07.080 --> 0:25:09.360
<v Speaker 1>decide to sell it at a markup, I get half

0:25:09.359 --> 0:25:12.119
<v Speaker 1>of that markup, but in no cases canna be higher

0:25:12.160 --> 0:25:14.600
<v Speaker 1>than X, and so you stop the you know, you

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:22.280
<v Speaker 1>basically demolish the entire um. Stub hub seek geek, absolutely egregious.

0:25:22.320 --> 0:25:24.280
<v Speaker 1>How do we use bots? You know, if they were

0:25:24.320 --> 0:25:27.119
<v Speaker 1>just reselling tickets, it's one thing, But they seem to

0:25:27.160 --> 0:25:29.840
<v Speaker 1>have gained the citizens, they buy all the tickets, buy

0:25:29.840 --> 0:25:32.720
<v Speaker 1>the tickets first, and you know, there's a reason why

0:25:32.880 --> 0:25:36.920
<v Speaker 1>artists offer their tickets at affordable prices to their fans,

0:25:37.160 --> 0:25:42.199
<v Speaker 1>and these um rentiers in the middle are abusive. So

0:25:42.240 --> 0:25:45.320
<v Speaker 1>all this comes back to, if the technology exists for that,

0:25:45.560 --> 0:25:48.479
<v Speaker 1>why haven't we seen a major artist who was it?

0:25:48.560 --> 0:25:53.879
<v Speaker 1>Was it Pearl jam tried to buy Nobody seems to

0:25:53.880 --> 0:25:55.239
<v Speaker 1>be able to come up with a way to do this.

0:25:55.480 --> 0:25:58.280
<v Speaker 1>So the reason is because you know, when we look

0:25:58.320 --> 0:26:01.919
<v Speaker 1>at how the corporate economy were works their investments that

0:26:01.960 --> 0:26:03.840
<v Speaker 1>you have to make like the ticketmaster wins a great

0:26:03.840 --> 0:26:06.600
<v Speaker 1>example because the technology to do that is trivial. We

0:26:06.600 --> 0:26:08.320
<v Speaker 1>can stand them up on three of the computers here

0:26:08.359 --> 0:26:11.080
<v Speaker 1>in this control room right now. That's the easy part.

0:26:11.320 --> 0:26:14.560
<v Speaker 1>The hard part is it's Madison Square Garden Friday night

0:26:14.640 --> 0:26:17.720
<v Speaker 1>at seven o'clock and you have twenty five thousand people

0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:19.639
<v Speaker 1>you have to get through the gate in the next

0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:22.040
<v Speaker 1>hour to get to the Taylor Swift concert that's about

0:26:22.040 --> 0:26:26.399
<v Speaker 1>to go live. That infrastructure having forty five guys standing

0:26:26.440 --> 0:26:29.119
<v Speaker 1>there with the scanners going to the network confirming your

0:26:29.119 --> 0:26:31.159
<v Speaker 1>ownership that this is the tip it has already been

0:26:31.200 --> 0:26:34.200
<v Speaker 1>used once, it hasn't been used twice. That and used

0:26:34.240 --> 0:26:36.679
<v Speaker 1>that right now, every time I saw Hades Town and

0:26:36.720 --> 0:26:39.399
<v Speaker 1>they don't even scan the ticket, you put your phone

0:26:39.440 --> 0:26:42.760
<v Speaker 1>on it just it's not you're not even looking at that.

0:26:42.960 --> 0:26:45.119
<v Speaker 1>If you are, find all of that is a whole

0:26:45.119 --> 0:26:49.720
<v Speaker 1>bunch of trust. Infrastructure that says the digital signature coming

0:26:49.720 --> 0:26:53.160
<v Speaker 1>off Barry Ridholt's wallet is the thing that says they

0:26:53.160 --> 0:26:56.480
<v Speaker 1>can go see Haydes Town. Right. That infrastructure is actually

0:26:56.520 --> 0:26:59.760
<v Speaker 1>the hard part because implied in that is a whole

0:26:59.760 --> 0:27:02.760
<v Speaker 1>lot rule of loss stuff like wait a minute, Barry

0:27:02.800 --> 0:27:04.439
<v Speaker 1>and I show up at the same time with the

0:27:04.480 --> 0:27:06.919
<v Speaker 1>same ticket, how do we determine which one of us

0:27:07.000 --> 0:27:08.399
<v Speaker 1>is the one that actually got to go in? How

0:27:08.440 --> 0:27:10.440
<v Speaker 1>do we determine which one of us owns it? What's

0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:13.200
<v Speaker 1>the recourse if you stole it from me? In other words,

0:27:13.200 --> 0:27:15.840
<v Speaker 1>if someone took a scan of that QR. That's the

0:27:15.840 --> 0:27:19.880
<v Speaker 1>problem with enforcement and and the last mile of all

0:27:19.880 --> 0:27:22.040
<v Speaker 1>of these things. Right, This is the part that I

0:27:22.040 --> 0:27:24.960
<v Speaker 1>always I sort of compare to blockchain solve that I've

0:27:25.000 --> 0:27:27.959
<v Speaker 1>been told over and over again. Oh, bitcoin fixes bitcoin

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:31.160
<v Speaker 1>solves everything, Except it's not molecular, right, It's still digital.

0:27:31.200 --> 0:27:33.200
<v Speaker 1>At the end of the day, most of the things

0:27:33.200 --> 0:27:35.680
<v Speaker 1>we actually give a you know what about our molecular

0:27:36.040 --> 0:27:38.760
<v Speaker 1>We want the coffee cup, we want to go to

0:27:38.800 --> 0:27:42.240
<v Speaker 1>the space to see the event where sound waves propagate

0:27:42.280 --> 0:27:45.000
<v Speaker 1>through the air from another human being on stage. At

0:27:45.000 --> 0:27:46.800
<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, you've got to have that

0:27:46.840 --> 0:27:51.119
<v Speaker 1>interface between the virtual and the real. Otherwise none of

0:27:51.119 --> 0:27:54.199
<v Speaker 1>this matters at all. And it's precisely that boundary that

0:27:54.320 --> 0:27:57.359
<v Speaker 1>is the problem right now. So let's talk a little

0:27:57.400 --> 0:28:01.280
<v Speaker 1>bit about a conference. I have participated in the t

0:28:01.400 --> 0:28:05.320
<v Speaker 1>F Exchange over the years. Vitified just purchased this from

0:28:05.359 --> 0:28:09.760
<v Speaker 1>Advisor Circles. I'm an investor in Advisor Circle, so I

0:28:09.760 --> 0:28:12.080
<v Speaker 1>don't know any of all that, right, So full disclosure.

0:28:12.440 --> 0:28:14.800
<v Speaker 1>We're talking about something that I kind of have an

0:28:14.800 --> 0:28:16.600
<v Speaker 1>interest in, or I used to have an interest in,

0:28:17.080 --> 0:28:20.280
<v Speaker 1>but I'm still a participant in the event. Well, we'll

0:28:20.320 --> 0:28:22.879
<v Speaker 1>see whether we get you an that's right, Listen. I

0:28:23.440 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>always feel like more disclosure is better than less, So

0:28:27.200 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 1>I'll let the lawyers sort that part, the part I

0:28:29.119 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 1>pay attention to with the content. So let's talk a

0:28:31.320 --> 0:28:34.640
<v Speaker 1>little bit about e t F Exchange. This has always

0:28:34.680 --> 0:28:38.440
<v Speaker 1>been just a massive event you mentioned earlier in the

0:28:38.680 --> 0:28:43.080
<v Speaker 1>heyday of financial conferences. This I think was one of

0:28:43.120 --> 0:28:45.480
<v Speaker 1>the biggest events I went to each year. Yeah, we

0:28:45.560 --> 0:28:47.760
<v Speaker 1>probably need to point out that like this is in

0:28:47.840 --> 0:28:50.600
<v Speaker 1>some ways the spiritual successor to the old inside et

0:28:50.840 --> 0:28:53.080
<v Speaker 1>S event. That event is still going on, and I

0:28:53.080 --> 0:28:55.800
<v Speaker 1>don't want to pretend that it doesn't exist. It is

0:28:55.800 --> 0:28:58.480
<v Speaker 1>now owned by a big conference company named Informa, and

0:28:58.520 --> 0:29:01.080
<v Speaker 1>they still put on those events. Wealth Stack was an

0:29:01.120 --> 0:29:02.840
<v Speaker 1>event that you all used to do with them. That's

0:29:02.840 --> 0:29:06.080
<v Speaker 1>now part of that event. Again more disclosures. So Informa

0:29:06.440 --> 0:29:10.440
<v Speaker 1>ran uh wealth Stack. We were partners with them for

0:29:10.560 --> 0:29:13.280
<v Speaker 1>Wealth Stack, which ran one year and we were ready

0:29:13.320 --> 0:29:16.040
<v Speaker 1>to do the next one when the pandemic hit. That's

0:29:16.080 --> 0:29:18.600
<v Speaker 1>the only reason that everything got juggled. Everything got juggled,

0:29:18.640 --> 0:29:22.040
<v Speaker 1>and then after everything reopened, their staff had left. It

0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 1>was a whole craziness. The whole world sort of reset

0:29:25.880 --> 0:29:30.280
<v Speaker 1>and so um we worked with Advisor Circle on future Proof,

0:29:30.400 --> 0:29:33.080
<v Speaker 1>not with Informer because they were kind of they're in

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:36.360
<v Speaker 1>Europe and they were a little skittish when the US

0:29:36.440 --> 0:29:39.320
<v Speaker 1>was reopening. But hold all that nonsense aside. Tell us

0:29:39.320 --> 0:29:43.320
<v Speaker 1>a little bit about why have UH an E t

0:29:43.480 --> 0:29:45.880
<v Speaker 1>F conference. You know is an E t F to

0:29:45.960 --> 0:29:48.480
<v Speaker 1>settled area. Tell us a little bit about this event. Well, no,

0:29:48.720 --> 0:29:50.720
<v Speaker 1>because E t F are where everything interesting in the

0:29:50.720 --> 0:29:52.880
<v Speaker 1>world is still happening. I think that's part of the

0:29:53.000 --> 0:29:54.480
<v Speaker 1>part of the reason I'm still in the E t

0:29:54.640 --> 0:29:56.960
<v Speaker 1>F business, although I don't have it in my title anymore,

0:29:57.480 --> 0:30:00.720
<v Speaker 1>is that regardless of what you're trying to get done

0:30:00.800 --> 0:30:03.120
<v Speaker 1>with that hundred thousand dollars you're trying to make go up,

0:30:03.480 --> 0:30:06.200
<v Speaker 1>ETFs are probably the right answer under the hood in

0:30:06.360 --> 0:30:08.960
<v Speaker 1>terms of the structure. So whether you're trying to get

0:30:09.120 --> 0:30:12.880
<v Speaker 1>managed futures from an active manager or you know, two

0:30:12.960 --> 0:30:17.000
<v Speaker 1>month treasuries T bills, like the whole spectrum is now

0:30:17.040 --> 0:30:19.920
<v Speaker 1>available in the close to three thousand et F s

0:30:20.000 --> 0:30:21.800
<v Speaker 1>we have trading here in the US. It's like the

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:23.800
<v Speaker 1>mutual pun business back in the eighties, and so we

0:30:23.880 --> 0:30:27.160
<v Speaker 1>have more ETFs. There are stocks just about getting close

0:30:27.320 --> 0:30:32.840
<v Speaker 1>getting close well in in the world. It's like thirty

0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:35.280
<v Speaker 1>thousand actual tickers out there in the world. But the

0:30:35.360 --> 0:30:37.520
<v Speaker 1>point is they're more E t F than you could

0:30:37.560 --> 0:30:40.560
<v Speaker 1>ever possibly use in one portfolio. Most people probably only

0:30:40.640 --> 0:30:43.520
<v Speaker 1>need a handful to accomplish whatever objectives they're going to do.

0:30:44.120 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>But the reason why we have an event around it

0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 1>is because so much of the interesting innovation and finance

0:30:50.400 --> 0:30:53.720
<v Speaker 1>happens through that structure. Because the et F structure lends

0:30:53.760 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 1>itself naturally to this sort of movement of risk from

0:30:56.840 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 1>bucket to bucket in a very retail friendly package. It's

0:31:00.520 --> 0:31:02.120
<v Speaker 1>sort of like the best thing we've come up with.

0:31:02.160 --> 0:31:04.120
<v Speaker 1>It's like people ask, like, well, why are trains a

0:31:04.200 --> 0:31:07.200
<v Speaker 1>certain width? Well, because history just sort of got us

0:31:07.280 --> 0:31:10.560
<v Speaker 1>to this configuration where now everything runs that way and

0:31:10.600 --> 0:31:13.760
<v Speaker 1>nobody's going to invent a new gage of train track. Uh.

0:31:13.880 --> 0:31:15.920
<v Speaker 1>This of the rails that we have at the moment

0:31:16.080 --> 0:31:18.200
<v Speaker 1>and probably for the rest of my career, the e

0:31:18.320 --> 0:31:20.920
<v Speaker 1>t F still looks like the most efficient set of

0:31:21.040 --> 0:31:23.520
<v Speaker 1>rails anybody's figured out how to put down. So why

0:31:23.600 --> 0:31:26.680
<v Speaker 1>have a conference about it? Well, Uh, largely because we

0:31:26.760 --> 0:31:31.080
<v Speaker 1>want to get those interesting conversations going. My perspective on exchanges,

0:31:31.560 --> 0:31:34.960
<v Speaker 1>I'm there to have interesting conversations, and when I'm talking

0:31:35.000 --> 0:31:37.040
<v Speaker 1>to a bunch of financial advisors and a bunch of

0:31:37.120 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 1>finance investment management types, that tends to be the most

0:31:40.520 --> 0:31:43.520
<v Speaker 1>interesting conversation because you get the real human use in

0:31:43.600 --> 0:31:46.360
<v Speaker 1>the room and you get the real human smarts in

0:31:46.440 --> 0:31:49.600
<v Speaker 1>the room, and that's when the magic happens. So, whether

0:31:49.640 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 1>it's getting a bunch of folks on stage to have

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:55.480
<v Speaker 1>a really interesting conversation about you know, geopolitical concerns in Ukraine,

0:31:56.240 --> 0:31:58.920
<v Speaker 1>or whether it's just being able to have a small

0:31:59.240 --> 0:32:02.840
<v Speaker 1>breakfast with four five advisors and some academic where we

0:32:02.920 --> 0:32:06.320
<v Speaker 1>talk about behavioral finance, those are the interesting conversations. So

0:32:06.440 --> 0:32:09.600
<v Speaker 1>exchange is really all about creating that sense of community

0:32:10.120 --> 0:32:13.360
<v Speaker 1>between groups of folks, and some of that content that's

0:32:13.360 --> 0:32:14.880
<v Speaker 1>on the stage and a lot of it isn't we

0:32:14.960 --> 0:32:16.720
<v Speaker 1>learned that. I think at future Proof this is a

0:32:16.800 --> 0:32:20.560
<v Speaker 1>community event. This is about people getting together and exchanging ideas,

0:32:20.880 --> 0:32:23.440
<v Speaker 1>and I think that's a lesson we've learned from the pandemic,

0:32:23.560 --> 0:32:25.480
<v Speaker 1>not just from that conference. People want to get together

0:32:25.560 --> 0:32:29.480
<v Speaker 1>and talk. You know. It's funny because financial conferences and

0:32:29.560 --> 0:32:33.360
<v Speaker 1>maybe conferences in general, everything is based on an academic model,

0:32:33.920 --> 0:32:37.120
<v Speaker 1>and people took the big lecture halls out as their

0:32:37.360 --> 0:32:39.720
<v Speaker 1>frame of reference. Hey, a bunch of people on stage

0:32:39.760 --> 0:32:41.840
<v Speaker 1>talking to a bunch of people in the audience taking notes.

0:32:42.360 --> 0:32:45.800
<v Speaker 1>But the most interesting part of college wasn't necessarily the

0:32:45.840 --> 0:32:48.480
<v Speaker 1>big lecture halls. It was the class let's out and

0:32:48.520 --> 0:32:50.600
<v Speaker 1>you start to talk to people about, hey, could you

0:32:50.680 --> 0:32:52.440
<v Speaker 1>explain this. I don't understand what's going on? And then

0:32:52.480 --> 0:32:57.720
<v Speaker 1>the subsequent conversations that's the really exciting driver, not you know,

0:32:57.880 --> 0:33:00.360
<v Speaker 1>the panel of people telling you here's why interest rate

0:33:00.440 --> 0:33:02.640
<v Speaker 1>is going to go up or down and what's wrong

0:33:02.680 --> 0:33:06.200
<v Speaker 1>with inflation today. So based on that, let's dive a

0:33:06.280 --> 0:33:10.120
<v Speaker 1>little bit into some of the innovations in finance and

0:33:10.160 --> 0:33:14.640
<v Speaker 1>ETFs you reference. Let's start with active ETFs. Uh. They

0:33:14.680 --> 0:33:17.760
<v Speaker 1>were looked at kind of skeptically a few years ago. Hey,

0:33:17.880 --> 0:33:20.680
<v Speaker 1>e t f s are all that low cost passive indexing.

0:33:21.080 --> 0:33:23.440
<v Speaker 1>Why do I want an active ETF? Well, the short

0:33:23.480 --> 0:33:25.320
<v Speaker 1>answer is because if you're an active manager, it's the

0:33:25.320 --> 0:33:27.560
<v Speaker 1>only way you're gonna get any customers. Right. So right,

0:33:27.720 --> 0:33:29.160
<v Speaker 1>there's a bit of a there's just a bit of

0:33:29.240 --> 0:33:31.680
<v Speaker 1>reality in that. I mean, at this point we're still

0:33:31.960 --> 0:33:34.880
<v Speaker 1>something like ten twelve percent of the flows the assets

0:33:34.920 --> 0:33:37.560
<v Speaker 1>are are inactive. It's still a fairly small number. How

0:33:37.640 --> 0:33:40.040
<v Speaker 1>much of that is just arc and Cathy Woods versus

0:33:40.080 --> 0:33:42.520
<v Speaker 1>everybody a decent chunk. But remember a lot of the

0:33:42.560 --> 0:33:45.200
<v Speaker 1>fixed income complex is actually managed right, most of the

0:33:45.240 --> 0:33:47.640
<v Speaker 1>product I want to say most of the vast majority

0:33:47.680 --> 0:33:49.440
<v Speaker 1>of this. Well, I mean there's like t LT you

0:33:49.520 --> 0:33:52.520
<v Speaker 1>at the big treasury funds l q D and h

0:33:52.640 --> 0:33:54.920
<v Speaker 1>y G, and those are sort of big betas and

0:33:55.040 --> 0:33:57.680
<v Speaker 1>fixed income, and that's where the biggest funds are. But

0:33:57.800 --> 0:33:59.560
<v Speaker 1>if you get below that tier, you know all the

0:33:59.600 --> 0:34:01.840
<v Speaker 1>Pimco of funds, anything sort of interesting being done at

0:34:01.880 --> 0:34:03.800
<v Speaker 1>the short end, even like a lot of the short

0:34:03.880 --> 0:34:07.160
<v Speaker 1>treasury stuff is technically actively managed because it moves so

0:34:07.240 --> 0:34:09.160
<v Speaker 1>fast you couldn't possibly want to try to trade down

0:34:09.160 --> 0:34:13.120
<v Speaker 1>an index. And the academics have demonstrated that active actually

0:34:13.200 --> 0:34:17.279
<v Speaker 1>creates worthwhile returns in bonds where it's certainly at least

0:34:17.320 --> 0:34:19.759
<v Speaker 1>the evidence is a little stronger, a lot stronger than

0:34:19.920 --> 0:34:22.480
<v Speaker 1>versus equities, where there's really no argument left. Yeah, So

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:24.720
<v Speaker 1>this is one of those things where my personal belief

0:34:24.800 --> 0:34:27.319
<v Speaker 1>system tends to I have to check that at the door.

0:34:27.680 --> 0:34:31.120
<v Speaker 1>The reality of the market right now is active management

0:34:31.280 --> 0:34:33.600
<v Speaker 1>is a thing in the E t F space. While

0:34:33.640 --> 0:34:35.879
<v Speaker 1>it is still a fairly small part of flows, call

0:34:35.920 --> 0:34:38.799
<v Speaker 1>it between ten and and a given period um, it's

0:34:38.800 --> 0:34:41.160
<v Speaker 1>an enormous part of revenue because most of these funds

0:34:41.320 --> 0:34:45.319
<v Speaker 1>charge more not judging five judge, so you know, they

0:34:45.360 --> 0:34:47.239
<v Speaker 1>may only be ten percent of the assets, but they're

0:34:47.280 --> 0:34:51.160
<v Speaker 1>more like of the revenue. And active managers are a

0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:53.279
<v Speaker 1>big deal in the E t F space now. And

0:34:53.640 --> 0:34:55.439
<v Speaker 1>I would also point out a lot of the ones

0:34:55.480 --> 0:34:58.840
<v Speaker 1>that have been successful um and are continuing to gain assets,

0:34:59.640 --> 0:35:01.839
<v Speaker 1>whether not they're putting up alpha or not. I think

0:35:01.840 --> 0:35:04.359
<v Speaker 1>it's always a tricky question. It seems like an easy one,

0:35:04.440 --> 0:35:06.719
<v Speaker 1>but there's a lot of miss benchmarking that goes on this. Yeah,

0:35:06.760 --> 0:35:09.360
<v Speaker 1>that's a great cheat, like we're gonna make a benchmark

0:35:09.480 --> 0:35:12.080
<v Speaker 1>much easier, and and and fixed income. This is really

0:35:12.120 --> 0:35:14.200
<v Speaker 1>an issue because a lot of people just default to

0:35:14.280 --> 0:35:19.920
<v Speaker 1>benching against the agg when they have no And you know,

0:35:20.040 --> 0:35:23.000
<v Speaker 1>most people who are an active bond manager, like they're

0:35:23.040 --> 0:35:26.000
<v Speaker 1>focused on credit, right, They're focused on a niche they've got,

0:35:26.200 --> 0:35:29.080
<v Speaker 1>I am working on securitized stuff whatever. They're not trying

0:35:29.120 --> 0:35:32.759
<v Speaker 1>to eek out fifty basics right right, They're not even

0:35:32.880 --> 0:35:35.840
<v Speaker 1>owning the long Treasury attorney of that stuff. So the

0:35:35.880 --> 0:35:38.560
<v Speaker 1>Apple's Apples thing is a real issue. Putting that to

0:35:38.680 --> 0:35:41.440
<v Speaker 1>the side. If you look at what Cathy Wood has

0:35:41.480 --> 0:35:44.719
<v Speaker 1>done at the ARC team, right, they're they're interesting. Their

0:35:44.760 --> 0:35:47.640
<v Speaker 1>performance has been awful, and their flows have been solid,

0:35:47.800 --> 0:35:50.920
<v Speaker 1>meaning money is not leaving. Let me let me annotate

0:35:51.040 --> 0:35:57.840
<v Speaker 1>that slightly, since their performance has been so I'm leading

0:35:57.920 --> 0:36:01.840
<v Speaker 1>up to do went No one even came in second

0:36:02.000 --> 0:36:07.600
<v Speaker 1>they I think she was plus one six when the

0:36:07.719 --> 0:36:10.800
<v Speaker 1>market from the lows. From the lows, the market was

0:36:10.880 --> 0:36:13.440
<v Speaker 1>up six and I think it was up eighteen percent

0:36:13.520 --> 0:36:16.480
<v Speaker 1>for the year. That just astonishing pattern of sort of

0:36:16.640 --> 0:36:20.040
<v Speaker 1>high innovation growth managers. We've seen this several times, not

0:36:20.200 --> 0:36:22.239
<v Speaker 1>just in the dot com era, though we played plenty

0:36:22.280 --> 0:36:25.680
<v Speaker 1>of it. Then look you look over a long cycle

0:36:25.719 --> 0:36:27.040
<v Speaker 1>and it's like, well they kind of did with the

0:36:27.120 --> 0:36:31.680
<v Speaker 1>spire over ten years, but eve and with crazy up

0:36:31.719 --> 0:36:33.600
<v Speaker 1>and down lone. Right, But if you look at that,

0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:36.319
<v Speaker 1>they've managed to hang onto investors. You look at things

0:36:36.440 --> 0:36:41.160
<v Speaker 1>like um Andrew Beers DBMF, which is the pulling a

0:36:41.280 --> 0:36:44.600
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars this year. Really, yeah, good for him. It's

0:36:44.640 --> 0:36:47.480
<v Speaker 1>up three. I mean, that's why. But I also think

0:36:47.520 --> 0:36:49.759
<v Speaker 1>it's a solid strategy. You know, it's effectively a quant

0:36:49.800 --> 0:36:52.480
<v Speaker 1>model that's duplicating that sort of ct A style of

0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:55.840
<v Speaker 1>management has done very well. There are a lot of

0:36:55.880 --> 0:36:58.040
<v Speaker 1>little pockets like that where you can say, oh, here's

0:36:58.040 --> 0:37:01.759
<v Speaker 1>an active manager who's providing interesting beta that other people

0:37:01.800 --> 0:37:04.320
<v Speaker 1>aren't really getting access to, and they're doing it in

0:37:04.400 --> 0:37:07.120
<v Speaker 1>a in a you know, more useful and interesting way

0:37:07.200 --> 0:37:09.759
<v Speaker 1>that there's also some story behind. You understand why you're

0:37:09.760 --> 0:37:12.080
<v Speaker 1>doing it. Now, you understand what it means when rates

0:37:12.120 --> 0:37:15.000
<v Speaker 1>go up another seventy bps um. That I think has

0:37:15.040 --> 0:37:18.319
<v Speaker 1>become pretty important. So as much as I'm personally still

0:37:18.560 --> 0:37:21.400
<v Speaker 1>a pretty strong skeptic of active management, I mean, I

0:37:21.520 --> 0:37:24.480
<v Speaker 1>understand the math and the odds are not in your

0:37:24.520 --> 0:37:26.320
<v Speaker 1>favor as an active manager, but you have to be

0:37:26.440 --> 0:37:30.600
<v Speaker 1>doing something both incredibly disciplined and incredibly well to have

0:37:30.719 --> 0:37:33.399
<v Speaker 1>any success there. I think we're now in a market

0:37:33.480 --> 0:37:35.480
<v Speaker 1>where we'll be able to pick those people out now.

0:37:35.520 --> 0:37:38.640
<v Speaker 1>Whether they're coin flippers who just happened to get heads

0:37:38.680 --> 0:37:41.520
<v Speaker 1>twenty times in a row or not, history will judge.

0:37:42.040 --> 0:37:45.279
<v Speaker 1>But there's demand from advisors, there's demand from institutions, there's

0:37:45.280 --> 0:37:48.160
<v Speaker 1>definitely demand from retail, and there's plenty of supply and

0:37:48.200 --> 0:37:51.160
<v Speaker 1>the asset management business side. So I remember, first of all,

0:37:51.239 --> 0:37:53.279
<v Speaker 1>Andrew Beau was a previous guest. I find him to

0:37:53.320 --> 0:37:57.680
<v Speaker 1>be really fascinating guy. If I recall correctly, he started

0:37:57.760 --> 0:38:00.920
<v Speaker 1>doing hedge fund replications in an at I don't know

0:38:01.000 --> 0:38:03.719
<v Speaker 1>how well those have done, but it wouldn't surprise me

0:38:04.280 --> 0:38:08.279
<v Speaker 1>that managed futures replication given how much commodities have run

0:38:08.400 --> 0:38:12.120
<v Speaker 1>up and run down. If you're doing a trend following model,

0:38:12.200 --> 0:38:14.480
<v Speaker 1>which a lot of the managed futures do, and I'm

0:38:14.480 --> 0:38:17.160
<v Speaker 1>assuming he found a way to create that could be

0:38:17.239 --> 0:38:19.719
<v Speaker 1>a giant winner. Yeah, and it has been right So

0:38:19.880 --> 0:38:21.359
<v Speaker 1>that is, you know, a little bit of a lightning

0:38:21.400 --> 0:38:22.920
<v Speaker 1>in a bottle of right place, right time. Maybe that

0:38:23.000 --> 0:38:24.719
<v Speaker 1>fund was around for year or two before people paid

0:38:24.719 --> 0:38:26.960
<v Speaker 1>any attention. How did the hedge fund replication work out?

0:38:27.040 --> 0:38:28.960
<v Speaker 1>So most of the hedge fund replication products have not

0:38:29.080 --> 0:38:31.440
<v Speaker 1>done particularly well. Index i Q launched a bunch of

0:38:31.480 --> 0:38:34.840
<v Speaker 1>those about a decade. The price you to execute, I meant,

0:38:35.000 --> 0:38:37.640
<v Speaker 1>but the price you to run. But they're also there's

0:38:37.680 --> 0:38:41.040
<v Speaker 1>there's also a mismatch. And anytime somebody says I'm going

0:38:41.080 --> 0:38:45.160
<v Speaker 1>to replicate this unobtainable pattern of returns with this obtainable

0:38:45.200 --> 0:38:48.520
<v Speaker 1>pattern of returns, because I can watch in the mirror

0:38:48.600 --> 0:38:50.680
<v Speaker 1>and see what they're doing, and then replicated over here,

0:38:51.239 --> 0:38:53.880
<v Speaker 1>I read all those academic papers. I understand where the

0:38:53.920 --> 0:38:56.799
<v Speaker 1>math comes from. I'm very skeptical about them. Not because

0:38:56.840 --> 0:38:58.600
<v Speaker 1>I think people get the math wrong, because I think

0:38:58.640 --> 0:39:01.279
<v Speaker 1>the world changes the leg the lag is deadly. You

0:39:01.360 --> 0:39:04.160
<v Speaker 1>and I have talked about the world changes constantly. Right.

0:39:04.280 --> 0:39:06.520
<v Speaker 1>In fact, you and I had a conversation that when

0:39:06.600 --> 0:39:09.880
<v Speaker 1>you perceive the world, you're already perceiving it on a

0:39:10.080 --> 0:39:12.759
<v Speaker 1>leg because of how long it takes for life. Yeah,

0:39:12.760 --> 0:39:15.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is there the foundation of how I view, like,

0:39:15.200 --> 0:39:18.839
<v Speaker 1>my financial futurist model starts with the premise that our

0:39:18.960 --> 0:39:21.480
<v Speaker 1>understanding of how humans work is wrong to start with, Like,

0:39:21.640 --> 0:39:24.680
<v Speaker 1>so just the nature of human existence we've all got wrong.

0:39:25.239 --> 0:39:28.440
<v Speaker 1>So therefore any certainty you apply to anything else in

0:39:28.480 --> 0:39:30.560
<v Speaker 1>the universe you've got to put with a huge grandness.

0:39:30.560 --> 0:39:32.080
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna talk more about that in the bit. I

0:39:32.160 --> 0:39:34.680
<v Speaker 1>want to stick with each other. We no, no, I

0:39:34.760 --> 0:39:37.600
<v Speaker 1>brought it up, but because it's so fascinating, So we

0:39:37.680 --> 0:39:42.839
<v Speaker 1>haven't talked about thematic ets, biblical partisan. Our friend Perth

0:39:42.960 --> 0:39:47.600
<v Speaker 1>Tolls Economic and then there's another one that does emerging markets.

0:39:47.760 --> 0:39:51.319
<v Speaker 1>Dm c Y does emerging and developed market. I think

0:39:51.360 --> 0:39:52.880
<v Speaker 1>that's the one, right, and that's got sort of a

0:39:52.960 --> 0:39:55.920
<v Speaker 1>broader methodology. Per tolls, f R d M is just

0:39:56.080 --> 0:39:59.480
<v Speaker 1>emerging markets ex. China, you know which is It's not

0:39:59.560 --> 0:40:03.719
<v Speaker 1>just ex it's ex dictating you know which has worked out?

0:40:03.760 --> 0:40:07.080
<v Speaker 1>Really another one phenomen another example of an idea that

0:40:07.360 --> 0:40:09.839
<v Speaker 1>right time, right place. This year has been another big

0:40:10.080 --> 0:40:12.040
<v Speaker 1>But we we both know she spent you know, five

0:40:12.120 --> 0:40:14.160
<v Speaker 1>to ten years in the trenches getting to the point

0:40:14.200 --> 0:40:16.600
<v Speaker 1>for the overnight success. That's how it always takes ten

0:40:16.680 --> 0:40:20.120
<v Speaker 1>years to be overnight. So the thematic stuff definitely interesting.

0:40:20.239 --> 0:40:24.080
<v Speaker 1>I think mostly driven by advisors need to have stories

0:40:24.120 --> 0:40:27.759
<v Speaker 1>to talk to their clients about. That's not preservative. Well

0:40:27.960 --> 0:40:31.400
<v Speaker 1>that's that's some of the stories though, and and my

0:40:31.560 --> 0:40:34.680
<v Speaker 1>pushback on the thematics are all right, I can understand

0:40:34.719 --> 0:40:38.120
<v Speaker 1>the concept behind what hims. If we invest in emerging

0:40:38.200 --> 0:40:42.680
<v Speaker 1>markets but leave out the worst players like Russia and

0:40:42.840 --> 0:40:46.000
<v Speaker 1>China that has worked out well this year, the ones

0:40:46.080 --> 0:40:50.200
<v Speaker 1>where I only want to invest in republican or democratic companies,

0:40:50.680 --> 0:40:53.719
<v Speaker 1>or I want to do these sort of biblical based investing.

0:40:54.200 --> 0:40:57.000
<v Speaker 1>They seem to be more emotional, and history has told

0:40:57.080 --> 0:41:00.520
<v Speaker 1>us emotions or the enemy of good investing. Yeah, I'm

0:41:00.600 --> 0:41:03.000
<v Speaker 1>not a super fan of most of that stuff. I

0:41:03.400 --> 0:41:07.319
<v Speaker 1>do think that there's a place for thinking about stewardship,

0:41:07.680 --> 0:41:09.800
<v Speaker 1>and again, part of my longer thesis on how the

0:41:09.840 --> 0:41:13.560
<v Speaker 1>world works um corporate ownership. Who controls what companies do

0:41:14.360 --> 0:41:17.080
<v Speaker 1>is probably a lot more important than who's elected in office.

0:41:17.160 --> 0:41:20.359
<v Speaker 1>We'll talk a bit about in the next But that's

0:41:20.560 --> 0:41:23.680
<v Speaker 1>all that is, all that woke anti woke investing stuff

0:41:24.040 --> 0:41:27.240
<v Speaker 1>that's applying these sort of emotional labels about the world

0:41:27.760 --> 0:41:30.040
<v Speaker 1>to our investments. And I'm with you, I don't think

0:41:30.120 --> 0:41:32.000
<v Speaker 1>that that makes a ton of sense. I think there's

0:41:32.040 --> 0:41:34.920
<v Speaker 1>some threads there around voting that makes some sense, But

0:41:35.080 --> 0:41:37.160
<v Speaker 1>most of that stuff I don't like how it's sold

0:41:37.360 --> 0:41:39.719
<v Speaker 1>more than I don't like how it's built. Where I

0:41:39.800 --> 0:41:41.719
<v Speaker 1>think things get a little tricky is when it's like

0:41:42.200 --> 0:41:46.360
<v Speaker 1>what I call headline funds, you know, electric cars, future food,

0:41:46.840 --> 0:41:51.719
<v Speaker 1>work from home, valid approaches, but they're really so targeted

0:41:51.719 --> 0:41:53.560
<v Speaker 1>towards well, is there going to be a big headline

0:41:53.600 --> 0:41:57.040
<v Speaker 1>like work from home pandemic go right. They're really just

0:41:57.320 --> 0:42:01.080
<v Speaker 1>headline bait. And I think those are interesting speculative plays

0:42:01.160 --> 0:42:02.800
<v Speaker 1>for folks that do that for a living, but I

0:42:02.880 --> 0:42:05.239
<v Speaker 1>don't think they really belonging people's long term portfolio. I

0:42:05.239 --> 0:42:07.400
<v Speaker 1>don't recall a whole lot of work from home ETFs.

0:42:08.960 --> 0:42:12.000
<v Speaker 1>That's that's what is it now, it's already coming gone.

0:42:12.239 --> 0:42:16.000
<v Speaker 1>So last e t F question, why on earth does

0:42:16.080 --> 0:42:20.480
<v Speaker 1>anyone need a single stock e t F. So we've

0:42:20.480 --> 0:42:22.040
<v Speaker 1>got a raft of these things that have come out.

0:42:22.280 --> 0:42:24.520
<v Speaker 1>The SEC is I think going to clamp weight down

0:42:24.640 --> 0:42:28.080
<v Speaker 1>on them. The short answer is they don't. The use

0:42:28.160 --> 0:42:31.439
<v Speaker 1>case for a single stock et is you either it's

0:42:31.600 --> 0:42:34.440
<v Speaker 1>an access to leverage that you couldn't get otherwise two

0:42:34.520 --> 0:42:37.600
<v Speaker 1>to one plus two to one is four to one, right,

0:42:38.160 --> 0:42:40.120
<v Speaker 1>works right? Well, well you could you can own a

0:42:40.160 --> 0:42:42.759
<v Speaker 1>two to one or three to one single stock et F.

0:42:43.239 --> 0:42:45.600
<v Speaker 1>You could buy it on margin, so you could go

0:42:45.680 --> 0:42:48.440
<v Speaker 1>four or six to one, which is kind of against

0:42:48.760 --> 0:42:51.719
<v Speaker 1>It's funny because I got invited to speak at the

0:42:52.560 --> 0:42:54.880
<v Speaker 1>SEC thing and I'm like, you should speak today's nodding,

0:42:55.160 --> 0:42:56.960
<v Speaker 1>and they said, yeah, yeah, we we already have him

0:42:57.000 --> 0:42:59.600
<v Speaker 1>on his artist. I'm like, I swear I get my answers,

0:42:59.640 --> 0:43:02.640
<v Speaker 1>so let cut out the middleman. Go talk to him. Yeah,

0:43:02.680 --> 0:43:04.640
<v Speaker 1>I'll be talking to them about that. So like they

0:43:04.719 --> 0:43:06.480
<v Speaker 1>have a use case if you want to be get

0:43:06.600 --> 0:43:08.520
<v Speaker 1>leverage and you don't want to use your margin account

0:43:08.600 --> 0:43:11.279
<v Speaker 1>or you ran out of margin your margin account. That yeah,

0:43:11.360 --> 0:43:14.160
<v Speaker 1>that's a narrow use case. More importantly, if you want

0:43:14.200 --> 0:43:17.520
<v Speaker 1>to short something, right, so Testla Tesla Q is the

0:43:17.560 --> 0:43:19.440
<v Speaker 1>one that's I caught, the only one that has any

0:43:19.480 --> 0:43:21.879
<v Speaker 1>of the assets right now, and it's the short Tesla fund.

0:43:22.400 --> 0:43:25.120
<v Speaker 1>The biggest benefit of those and I can't believe I'm

0:43:25.120 --> 0:43:27.040
<v Speaker 1>saying this out loud, is you can only lose all

0:43:27.080 --> 0:43:30.000
<v Speaker 1>your money like that can only lose You can only

0:43:30.040 --> 0:43:32.040
<v Speaker 1>lose all your money. That way do I sign up

0:43:32.080 --> 0:43:35.320
<v Speaker 1>for that? That sounds fair as opposed to futures that

0:43:35.640 --> 0:43:38.480
<v Speaker 1>theoretically you put up direct short and you can lose

0:43:38.560 --> 0:43:41.360
<v Speaker 1>a direct shorting finding getting a locate and getting short

0:43:41.840 --> 0:43:44.400
<v Speaker 1>theoretically you know, you have one really bad day and

0:43:44.480 --> 0:43:48.000
<v Speaker 1>you can be out more than your account. Right, that's fair,

0:43:48.960 --> 0:43:52.040
<v Speaker 1>But we are splitting hairs. The short answer, Berry is

0:43:52.400 --> 0:43:55.040
<v Speaker 1>they don't really have much of a use case for

0:43:55.200 --> 0:43:58.520
<v Speaker 1>most investors. The fake a d rs like Roundhill it

0:43:58.600 --> 0:44:00.879
<v Speaker 1>filed for like you know, get am Sung which doesn't

0:44:00.920 --> 0:44:02.360
<v Speaker 1>have an a d R and you can trade it

0:44:02.400 --> 0:44:04.880
<v Speaker 1>like it's an a d R. That one actually that

0:44:04.880 --> 0:44:11.719
<v Speaker 1>would have some utility and I can't buy Why why not?

0:44:12.200 --> 0:44:14.400
<v Speaker 1>Because there are reasons we have a d R rules, right,

0:44:14.480 --> 0:44:16.440
<v Speaker 1>That's part of the reason that you have to go

0:44:16.560 --> 0:44:19.480
<v Speaker 1>through the process of getting a depository receipt listed is

0:44:19.560 --> 0:44:22.040
<v Speaker 1>that the then rules about what that means in terms

0:44:22.040 --> 0:44:24.600
<v Speaker 1>of voting and ownership and reporting and all that jazz.

0:44:24.920 --> 0:44:27.920
<v Speaker 1>Why doesn't Samsung trade as an a d R on

0:44:28.000 --> 0:44:30.040
<v Speaker 1>the New York Stock Exchange. I don't understand that because

0:44:30.040 --> 0:44:31.680
<v Speaker 1>they don't want to go through the process because they

0:44:31.760 --> 0:44:33.759
<v Speaker 1>just don't care. Well, yeah, I mean they'd have to

0:44:33.800 --> 0:44:35.879
<v Speaker 1>do reporting that they don't mean. I'm guessing a little

0:44:35.880 --> 0:44:37.719
<v Speaker 1>bit because I don't live in their boardroom, but you know,

0:44:37.920 --> 0:44:40.000
<v Speaker 1>they have reporting that they'd have to do they don't

0:44:40.040 --> 0:44:42.440
<v Speaker 1>want to do. They've got American investors they don't want

0:44:42.440 --> 0:44:44.920
<v Speaker 1>to have to talk to. You know, they've got requirements

0:44:44.960 --> 0:44:48.160
<v Speaker 1>that the Nisy would put on them. Why would you bother?

0:44:48.400 --> 0:44:50.360
<v Speaker 1>And and also you end up in the situation we

0:44:50.440 --> 0:44:52.400
<v Speaker 1>have right now with Baba, where you end up with

0:44:52.480 --> 0:44:53.840
<v Speaker 1>the I mean, Bob is not an a d R,

0:44:53.920 --> 0:44:55.840
<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a it's a direct list. But you

0:44:56.000 --> 0:44:58.480
<v Speaker 1>end up with this issue where you've got multiple jurisdictions

0:44:58.719 --> 0:45:02.640
<v Speaker 1>governing a country and comes right, especially anything out of

0:45:02.719 --> 0:45:06.360
<v Speaker 1>China these days are really problematic. Alright, I said, no

0:45:06.440 --> 0:45:08.480
<v Speaker 1>more E t F questions. I got to ask you

0:45:08.560 --> 0:45:11.560
<v Speaker 1>the mutual fund question. And you and I again have

0:45:11.680 --> 0:45:14.880
<v Speaker 1>talked about this in the past. If mutual funds were

0:45:14.920 --> 0:45:19.080
<v Speaker 1>a brand new product, would they be approved in Absolutely

0:45:20.080 --> 0:45:23.320
<v Speaker 1>they would not tell us because the E t F

0:45:23.400 --> 0:45:26.480
<v Speaker 1>structure is inherently more tax fair, and that sounds like

0:45:26.560 --> 0:45:30.360
<v Speaker 1>a weird no. The problem with mutual funds, if you

0:45:30.400 --> 0:45:32.920
<v Speaker 1>want them today is that the pitch would be, Hey,

0:45:33.040 --> 0:45:36.879
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna pool our investors, but for tax purposes. If

0:45:37.000 --> 0:45:39.880
<v Speaker 1>you sell out, you can take care of your own stuff,

0:45:39.920 --> 0:45:42.239
<v Speaker 1>but we're gonna book that gain over here with all

0:45:42.280 --> 0:45:44.879
<v Speaker 1>of these other investors, send them all of a check,

0:45:44.960 --> 0:45:47.280
<v Speaker 1>and make all of them restate your base at their basis.

0:45:47.360 --> 0:45:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Because you decided you want out on a Tuesday and

0:45:50.080 --> 0:45:53.560
<v Speaker 1>tax exactly. That's that would be a nonstarter today, end

0:45:53.600 --> 0:45:56.640
<v Speaker 1>of day price, which by the way, works great in

0:45:56.680 --> 0:45:59.320
<v Speaker 1>a four oh one K. Yeah. So it's like I

0:45:59.520 --> 0:46:02.360
<v Speaker 1>I try not to spend a lot of time imagining

0:46:02.400 --> 0:46:04.919
<v Speaker 1>how I think the world should be today and spend

0:46:04.960 --> 0:46:06.320
<v Speaker 1>more of it trying to focus on the word the

0:46:06.360 --> 0:46:09.560
<v Speaker 1>world is today and might end up. We have mutual

0:46:09.640 --> 0:46:12.560
<v Speaker 1>funds now. They're not going to go anywhere because they're

0:46:12.600 --> 0:46:15.840
<v Speaker 1>baked into our retirement system. They're a better fit for

0:46:16.040 --> 0:46:18.560
<v Speaker 1>that specific purpose than E t f s because of

0:46:18.640 --> 0:46:22.520
<v Speaker 1>fractional shares. There's no economic innsenter for anybody to change

0:46:22.560 --> 0:46:25.239
<v Speaker 1>any of that. So I'm gonna die and my four

0:46:25.280 --> 0:46:27.520
<v Speaker 1>ownk is going to be in mutual funds. That's probably

0:46:27.560 --> 0:46:30.800
<v Speaker 1>what's going to happen right whenever, whether that's tomorrow or

0:46:30.920 --> 0:46:33.160
<v Speaker 1>forty years from now. I don't think mutual funds are

0:46:33.160 --> 0:46:36.200
<v Speaker 1>going away because there's no reason for anybody to usurp it.

0:46:36.520 --> 0:46:39.360
<v Speaker 1>Unless we literally throw out the forty Act and rewrite

0:46:39.360 --> 0:46:41.640
<v Speaker 1>the securities laws of this country, the mutual funds going

0:46:41.719 --> 0:46:44.840
<v Speaker 1>to exist. Channeling Ray Dalio's quote, it's the role of

0:46:44.920 --> 0:46:47.440
<v Speaker 1>the investor to deal with the world as it is.

0:46:49.400 --> 0:46:52.799
<v Speaker 1>I'm a huge fan of that quote. Fascinating. So let's

0:46:52.840 --> 0:46:56.080
<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about a quote from you that

0:46:56.280 --> 0:47:00.279
<v Speaker 1>I'm perplexed about, and that is the ants here to

0:47:00.440 --> 0:47:04.120
<v Speaker 1>every question starts at the beginning and gets just as

0:47:04.239 --> 0:47:07.880
<v Speaker 1>detailed as you need it to be until you've satisfied

0:47:07.960 --> 0:47:12.200
<v Speaker 1>the need. What does that have to do with finance? Well, look,

0:47:12.520 --> 0:47:15.279
<v Speaker 1>the world is infinitely complex, right that I think we

0:47:15.320 --> 0:47:18.000
<v Speaker 1>can get down that it's not black and white. It's

0:47:18.000 --> 0:47:20.840
<v Speaker 1>not black and there bumper stickers on the answers to

0:47:20.920 --> 0:47:23.640
<v Speaker 1>our problem to get like, to get really like neurophil

0:47:23.880 --> 0:47:27.360
<v Speaker 1>philosophical about it. As human beings, we walk around looking

0:47:27.440 --> 0:47:30.120
<v Speaker 1>for affordances. And what that word means is like we

0:47:30.239 --> 0:47:32.960
<v Speaker 1>look for the handle on the cup, and we said,

0:47:32.960 --> 0:47:34.800
<v Speaker 1>when we see a cup and there's a handle on it,

0:47:35.280 --> 0:47:37.560
<v Speaker 1>we can say, oh, I've seen this before. I understand

0:47:37.680 --> 0:47:39.799
<v Speaker 1>that's a thing I can grasp, and I understand how

0:47:39.880 --> 0:47:41.440
<v Speaker 1>my hand works, and so now I can get the

0:47:41.480 --> 0:47:43.759
<v Speaker 1>cup of coffee. If all we're trying to do is

0:47:43.840 --> 0:47:46.880
<v Speaker 1>drink the coffee, that's as far as we need to go, right,

0:47:46.960 --> 0:47:49.400
<v Speaker 1>we get the affordance that allows us to work in

0:47:49.480 --> 0:47:51.840
<v Speaker 1>the environment that we're in. Our model of the universe

0:47:51.920 --> 0:47:53.840
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have to be perfect. It just needs to be

0:47:54.000 --> 0:47:56.160
<v Speaker 1>good enough to get us through the day. And it's

0:47:56.239 --> 0:47:58.440
<v Speaker 1>going to be imperfect. That's the other thing I think

0:47:58.480 --> 0:48:00.719
<v Speaker 1>that is an important thing for anybody who's in the

0:48:00.760 --> 0:48:03.400
<v Speaker 1>business of dealing with human beings for a living around

0:48:03.440 --> 0:48:08.560
<v Speaker 1>emotional subjects, which is the job of financial advisor understanding that, Oh,

0:48:09.040 --> 0:48:12.400
<v Speaker 1>everybody lives in their own little interpreted reality where some

0:48:12.560 --> 0:48:16.160
<v Speaker 1>people understand the molecular structure of the cup and some

0:48:16.320 --> 0:48:19.800
<v Speaker 1>people literally just having their head. Oh handle coffee, drink,

0:48:20.440 --> 0:48:23.520
<v Speaker 1>and both of those are okay, depending on what your purposes.

0:48:23.719 --> 0:48:25.920
<v Speaker 1>What does that have to do with finance. Well, in

0:48:26.040 --> 0:48:30.319
<v Speaker 1>finance we approach that constantly. The markets. Just think about

0:48:30.440 --> 0:48:34.120
<v Speaker 1>we talk about the markets. Okay, do you understand the

0:48:34.239 --> 0:48:37.680
<v Speaker 1>markets well? Yes and no, right, yes, you understand the

0:48:37.719 --> 0:48:39.800
<v Speaker 1>basics of like what's going across the ticker and what

0:48:39.880 --> 0:48:42.960
<v Speaker 1>your clients need to do. Do you really understand at

0:48:43.000 --> 0:48:46.520
<v Speaker 1>a really detailed level exactly how payment for order flow

0:48:46.600 --> 0:48:50.520
<v Speaker 1>impacts capital requirements at the dtc C. No, you don't

0:48:50.640 --> 0:48:53.480
<v Speaker 1>need to. It's not important to what your job is

0:48:53.960 --> 0:48:57.120
<v Speaker 1>until something breaks right, and so part of my job

0:48:57.160 --> 0:48:59.920
<v Speaker 1>as a financial futurist is to go down a lot

0:49:00.000 --> 0:49:02.279
<v Speaker 1>of those rabbit holes so that when when the world

0:49:02.320 --> 0:49:04.400
<v Speaker 1>blows up and everybody's like, payment for workflow is the

0:49:04.440 --> 0:49:07.000
<v Speaker 1>worst thing in the world, I'm not starting from square

0:49:07.040 --> 0:49:11.440
<v Speaker 1>one saying what does pfo F stand for? I've already understood. Okay,

0:49:11.560 --> 0:49:14.160
<v Speaker 1>here's the mechanics of how this go. What am I missing?

0:49:14.239 --> 0:49:16.080
<v Speaker 1>I haven't looked at it in eight weeks. Maybe the

0:49:16.160 --> 0:49:18.920
<v Speaker 1>world change, so I can do the update to get current.

0:49:19.640 --> 0:49:21.800
<v Speaker 1>But I'm not starting from scratch every day, and I

0:49:22.000 --> 0:49:24.560
<v Speaker 1>hopefully that's some of the value. So funny you mentioned

0:49:25.040 --> 0:49:28.560
<v Speaker 1>understanding what's going on when the world breaks. The book

0:49:28.640 --> 0:49:32.000
<v Speaker 1>I love to give to younger people who are getting

0:49:32.040 --> 0:49:36.520
<v Speaker 1>started in markets is tim Mets is Black Monday, because

0:49:37.400 --> 0:49:40.839
<v Speaker 1>even today, most people have no idea what happened during

0:49:40.880 --> 0:49:44.600
<v Speaker 1>the eighty seven crash. And it's exactly as you've described.

0:49:45.120 --> 0:49:49.560
<v Speaker 1>It is the logistics, the plumbing, the day to day

0:49:49.680 --> 0:49:53.600
<v Speaker 1>operations that you don't realize that every decision that's made

0:49:54.000 --> 0:49:58.080
<v Speaker 1>has ramifications deep into the future for how markets operate.

0:49:58.160 --> 0:49:59.759
<v Speaker 1>I'll give you one little weird side note on that.

0:49:59.840 --> 0:50:03.520
<v Speaker 1>So seven, I was twenty one years old or something

0:50:03.600 --> 0:50:07.359
<v Speaker 1>like that. I was living in Hollywood, California. I had

0:50:07.400 --> 0:50:10.000
<v Speaker 1>a little tiny bit of money invested, maybe five grand

0:50:10.080 --> 0:50:12.080
<v Speaker 1>that my grandfather had given me in a Smith Barney

0:50:12.080 --> 0:50:16.080
<v Speaker 1>account or something like that. You know, seven happened, pretty

0:50:16.160 --> 0:50:19.120
<v Speaker 1>much lost most of it whatever, But I became fascinated

0:50:19.239 --> 0:50:23.160
<v Speaker 1>at that moment by what the hell just happened. Years later,

0:50:23.320 --> 0:50:25.200
<v Speaker 1>literally four or five years later, I've gone and gotten

0:50:25.239 --> 0:50:27.719
<v Speaker 1>an m b A. I'm studying investment finance in the

0:50:27.800 --> 0:50:29.800
<v Speaker 1>back of my head constantly, I'm like, I want to

0:50:29.880 --> 0:50:31.600
<v Speaker 1>understand what that, So I read everything about it. I

0:50:31.680 --> 0:50:34.719
<v Speaker 1>end up working for Well's far Unico in the very

0:50:34.760 --> 0:50:38.040
<v Speaker 1>early or something like that, Low and Behol. I started

0:50:38.080 --> 0:50:41.040
<v Speaker 1>going through stacks of stuff on portfolio insurance because they

0:50:41.080 --> 0:50:44.560
<v Speaker 1>were a huge writer that at the time and index provider.

0:50:44.760 --> 0:50:46.600
<v Speaker 1>So it's like, and I had never at that point,

0:50:46.680 --> 0:50:48.279
<v Speaker 1>I had not been down that rabbit hole. There was

0:50:48.320 --> 0:50:50.680
<v Speaker 1>no Internet to go search on that. Now I had

0:50:50.719 --> 0:50:53.120
<v Speaker 1>access to all of these internal documents about like what

0:50:53.280 --> 0:50:54.760
<v Speaker 1>was actually going and the ne of it was hidden.

0:50:54.760 --> 0:50:58.520
<v Speaker 1>It was all part of congression, the giant SEC report

0:50:58.600 --> 0:51:02.160
<v Speaker 1>that came out afterwards, and and it was just anyway.

0:51:02.280 --> 0:51:06.440
<v Speaker 1>My point is, it's fascinating to understand. To me, it's

0:51:06.440 --> 0:51:09.719
<v Speaker 1>fascining to understand how the pieces actually work versus how

0:51:09.800 --> 0:51:12.000
<v Speaker 1>we think they work, because they're never the same. One

0:51:12.040 --> 0:51:13.800
<v Speaker 1>of the things in the book that was always so

0:51:13.920 --> 0:51:16.759
<v Speaker 1>vivid to me, and I'm sure I'm gonna misquote this,

0:51:17.000 --> 0:51:21.440
<v Speaker 1>But they used to run the prints from the Chicago

0:51:21.719 --> 0:51:25.839
<v Speaker 1>futures pits into the floor of the New York Stocks Change,

0:51:25.840 --> 0:51:28.200
<v Speaker 1>so you could see how the futures were trading, and

0:51:28.840 --> 0:51:33.160
<v Speaker 1>marry that with portfolio insurance, and suddenly it's a vicious

0:51:33.200 --> 0:51:36.520
<v Speaker 1>cycle downwards as it just be. There is no bottom

0:51:36.560 --> 0:51:37.719
<v Speaker 1>and that, and that's how you end up with a

0:51:37.840 --> 0:51:42.120
<v Speaker 1>down day on on the Dow when it should have

0:51:42.200 --> 0:51:45.320
<v Speaker 1>been you know, a run of the mill correction. But

0:51:45.440 --> 0:51:47.560
<v Speaker 1>part of the reason that's so interesting is that the

0:51:47.640 --> 0:51:50.759
<v Speaker 1>mechanics of that are now gone. The world doesn't work

0:51:50.880 --> 0:51:54.200
<v Speaker 1>that way anymore. But people are the same, right, They

0:51:54.360 --> 0:51:57.920
<v Speaker 1>like Neanderthals are pretty much doing the exact same emotional

0:51:58.320 --> 0:52:02.160
<v Speaker 1>by sell you know, green fear trade off in that cycle.

0:52:02.280 --> 0:52:04.920
<v Speaker 1>And so what happened in eight seven was a cycle

0:52:05.000 --> 0:52:06.480
<v Speaker 1>that was had you know, I don't know, had had

0:52:06.480 --> 0:52:08.920
<v Speaker 1>a cycle time of twenty minutes. Now it has a

0:52:08.960 --> 0:52:11.320
<v Speaker 1>cycle time of twenty milliseconds. But at the end of

0:52:11.360 --> 0:52:13.960
<v Speaker 1>the day, you still have people making those decisions. So

0:52:14.080 --> 0:52:17.400
<v Speaker 1>another quote of yours is history tells us mostly about

0:52:17.480 --> 0:52:21.239
<v Speaker 1>what people did when faced with a specific set of

0:52:21.360 --> 0:52:25.280
<v Speaker 1>constraints and inputs. How does that affect traders and investors

0:52:25.360 --> 0:52:28.279
<v Speaker 1>in market. Well, so you know you do this on

0:52:28.360 --> 0:52:31.360
<v Speaker 1>your podcast, right, you talked to a lot of very professional,

0:52:31.680 --> 0:52:35.080
<v Speaker 1>very successful people. That's why it's called Masters in Business. Right.

0:52:35.680 --> 0:52:38.200
<v Speaker 1>The challenge with that is, I think it's very easy

0:52:38.280 --> 0:52:41.239
<v Speaker 1>to get hung up on the thing that they did,

0:52:41.680 --> 0:52:43.719
<v Speaker 1>not why they did it, and what they needed to

0:52:43.760 --> 0:52:46.200
<v Speaker 1>be able to do it. So we look back at assignments, right,

0:52:46.239 --> 0:52:50.480
<v Speaker 1>people who were wizards of Wall Street, and we were so,

0:52:50.760 --> 0:52:53.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, we Revere Warren Buffett, right, and we said, like,

0:52:53.280 --> 0:52:55.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, and people write books about them and all

0:52:55.960 --> 0:52:58.200
<v Speaker 1>these things, and often what they end up looking like

0:52:58.360 --> 0:53:01.600
<v Speaker 1>is hero worship. The more interesting question is that, Okay,

0:53:01.680 --> 0:53:04.560
<v Speaker 1>Buffet's been really successful. Instead of trying to figure out

0:53:04.640 --> 0:53:06.719
<v Speaker 1>what is it about Buffett that was better, I think

0:53:06.760 --> 0:53:08.960
<v Speaker 1>it's much more interesting to look at, well, okay, what

0:53:09.200 --> 0:53:10.920
<v Speaker 1>was the pond that he was fishing in, who were

0:53:11.040 --> 0:53:14.080
<v Speaker 1>his who were his colleagues, what were his information sources,

0:53:14.400 --> 0:53:16.600
<v Speaker 1>What kind of capital constraints did he have or what

0:53:16.800 --> 0:53:20.240
<v Speaker 1>lack of capital constraints did he have versus competitors. That's

0:53:20.280 --> 0:53:22.759
<v Speaker 1>what makes him an interesting story. Now, of course he

0:53:22.760 --> 0:53:25.759
<v Speaker 1>wouldn't be successful. He wasn't also sharp and brilliant and

0:53:25.800 --> 0:53:28.400
<v Speaker 1>good at his job and good with people. But I

0:53:28.520 --> 0:53:30.880
<v Speaker 1>think it's much more interesting to look at those decisions

0:53:31.080 --> 0:53:35.440
<v Speaker 1>as sort of contextual reactions to their environment, as opposed

0:53:35.480 --> 0:53:37.720
<v Speaker 1>to revering them as like what we should all invest

0:53:37.800 --> 0:53:41.440
<v Speaker 1>like Warren Buffett. No, we should all have the perspicacity

0:53:41.640 --> 0:53:44.960
<v Speaker 1>to invest like Warren Buffett when presented with that exact

0:53:45.000 --> 0:53:48.279
<v Speaker 1>set of situation. It's about process. And one of the

0:53:48.320 --> 0:53:51.360
<v Speaker 1>things I really go out of my way to avoid

0:53:51.760 --> 0:53:56.120
<v Speaker 1>is the classic survivorship bias, because that's why one of

0:53:56.200 --> 0:53:58.320
<v Speaker 1>my favorite questions is always what do you know today

0:53:58.400 --> 0:54:00.840
<v Speaker 1>that you wish you knew to only five years or

0:54:00.840 --> 0:54:03.239
<v Speaker 1>so ago when you started, Because I want to give

0:54:03.280 --> 0:54:05.759
<v Speaker 1>people an opportunity to say, oh, I mess this up

0:54:05.920 --> 0:54:09.319
<v Speaker 1>or I didn't know this otherwise. It's that's the criticism

0:54:09.480 --> 0:54:12.440
<v Speaker 1>of you know good too great. Here are twelve companies

0:54:12.480 --> 0:54:15.080
<v Speaker 1>that did fantastic in the eighties and nineties, and then

0:54:15.120 --> 0:54:17.239
<v Speaker 1>you look forward a decade and half of them are

0:54:17.320 --> 0:54:20.440
<v Speaker 1>either out of business or gone or wildly under performing

0:54:20.480 --> 0:54:22.880
<v Speaker 1>the market. Yeah. I think that's exactly the point. Um,

0:54:22.960 --> 0:54:25.839
<v Speaker 1>So I I get very skeptical of hero worship I'm

0:54:25.960 --> 0:54:29.759
<v Speaker 1>much more interested in understanding decision making. So, like you know,

0:54:30.120 --> 0:54:33.040
<v Speaker 1>in terms of like great business books, I'd rather focus

0:54:33.120 --> 0:54:36.560
<v Speaker 1>on like Choices, values and frames by Ken min Tversky

0:54:37.320 --> 0:54:39.920
<v Speaker 1>versus anything Mountain Gladwell has ever written. I thought you're

0:54:39.920 --> 0:54:43.600
<v Speaker 1>gonna go with money Ball? Well no, but like, actually

0:54:43.640 --> 0:54:46.320
<v Speaker 1>money Ball is a great counter example where that's a

0:54:46.440 --> 0:54:49.080
<v Speaker 1>great narrative, it's a great story. But I think that

0:54:49.200 --> 0:54:51.440
<v Speaker 1>the lesson some people get out of money Ball is, Oh,

0:54:51.480 --> 0:54:52.920
<v Speaker 1>there was this one sharp kid in the right place

0:54:52.920 --> 0:54:54.760
<v Speaker 1>at the right time, and he really did something amazing

0:54:55.040 --> 0:54:57.120
<v Speaker 1>and got just enough people to pay attention and got

0:54:57.160 --> 0:54:59.920
<v Speaker 1>really lucky. And isn't that a great story? Where they're

0:55:00.080 --> 0:55:03.600
<v Speaker 1>real thing is okay, what is it about that environment

0:55:03.640 --> 0:55:05.800
<v Speaker 1>that made a difference. This was somebody who focused on

0:55:06.040 --> 0:55:08.680
<v Speaker 1>data when other people thought data was irrelevant. They got

0:55:08.840 --> 0:55:12.000
<v Speaker 1>nerdy when people were thinking it was hunch. The same

0:55:12.040 --> 0:55:14.600
<v Speaker 1>thing happens in markets all the time. Right when people

0:55:14.640 --> 0:55:17.040
<v Speaker 1>get nerdy but other people are focused on the emotions,

0:55:17.440 --> 0:55:20.239
<v Speaker 1>there's often a real opportunity there, right, because now you're

0:55:20.280 --> 0:55:23.160
<v Speaker 1>dealing with the system, not with the people. You've mentioned

0:55:23.239 --> 0:55:27.480
<v Speaker 1>another book that I think is fascinating as history the

0:55:27.640 --> 0:55:30.680
<v Speaker 1>right stuff tell us about what the right stuff has

0:55:30.719 --> 0:55:33.600
<v Speaker 1>to do with Yeah. So well again, So I'm glad

0:55:33.640 --> 0:55:35.840
<v Speaker 1>you made that bridge because because I think Moneyball is

0:55:35.840 --> 0:55:38.640
<v Speaker 1>an interesting example there. To me, Moneyball is interesting not

0:55:39.080 --> 0:55:42.200
<v Speaker 1>for the like act like this dude, but as a

0:55:42.400 --> 0:55:45.920
<v Speaker 1>character study to understand how human beings reacted there. So like,

0:55:46.440 --> 0:55:48.120
<v Speaker 1>um in the right stuff, which was the example I

0:55:48.239 --> 0:55:50.640
<v Speaker 1>was using in the email I sent you. I'm like

0:55:50.760 --> 0:55:52.840
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people my age and gen X fascinated

0:55:52.880 --> 0:55:55.520
<v Speaker 1>by the Apollo Program and read everything and seeing every

0:55:55.600 --> 0:55:58.040
<v Speaker 1>documentary and built all the models when I was a kid, right,

0:55:58.040 --> 0:56:00.879
<v Speaker 1>I mean it was the Wild West. You're too young

0:56:00.960 --> 0:56:04.480
<v Speaker 1>to have been called down to the assembly when one

0:56:04.560 --> 0:56:07.320
<v Speaker 1>of theo I think the first Apollo landed on the

0:56:07.400 --> 0:56:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Moon or c. Yeah, but I remember watching on TV

0:56:09.600 --> 0:56:11.440
<v Speaker 1>as a kid, sitting on the couch, right, So like

0:56:11.960 --> 0:56:14.600
<v Speaker 1>very very real to me. Um, And so I felt

0:56:14.640 --> 0:56:16.759
<v Speaker 1>like by the time I was sixteen, I felt like

0:56:16.800 --> 0:56:19.560
<v Speaker 1>I had a pretty nerdy understanding of the Apollo Program.

0:56:19.920 --> 0:56:21.880
<v Speaker 1>But then you start reading stuff like Tom Wolf and

0:56:21.960 --> 0:56:24.080
<v Speaker 1>the Great Stuff. Did you read it or did you?

0:56:24.280 --> 0:56:26.600
<v Speaker 1>Full disclosure, I watched the movie, I never know, I

0:56:26.640 --> 0:56:28.200
<v Speaker 1>read the book. I read the book when it came out,

0:56:28.440 --> 0:56:30.680
<v Speaker 1>and the reason I loved it again was not because

0:56:30.719 --> 0:56:33.640
<v Speaker 1>it told me anything about how they made the landers.

0:56:34.160 --> 0:56:37.160
<v Speaker 1>It was because it was like, holy crap, this was

0:56:37.280 --> 0:56:41.040
<v Speaker 1>an ego farm, Like this was a whole like that.

0:56:41.200 --> 0:56:43.600
<v Speaker 1>It felt like Wall Street. Okay, here a bunch of

0:56:43.880 --> 0:56:50.399
<v Speaker 1>extremely high performance, almost exclusively dudes with enormous egos who

0:56:50.560 --> 0:56:54.319
<v Speaker 1>are going to work collectively to do something nearly impossible.

0:56:54.760 --> 0:56:57.480
<v Speaker 1>That's why that's an interesting story. It could be about,

0:56:58.000 --> 0:57:01.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, the Dream Team hockey, right. The fact that

0:57:01.400 --> 0:57:05.000
<v Speaker 1>it was about these like super high performance people interacting

0:57:05.000 --> 0:57:07.160
<v Speaker 1>with each other for a common goal. That's what I

0:57:07.239 --> 0:57:08.880
<v Speaker 1>think was interesting about it. And I think if you

0:57:09.000 --> 0:57:12.000
<v Speaker 1>learned something from the Apollo program, it should be about that,

0:57:12.360 --> 0:57:14.759
<v Speaker 1>not about like, well, government spending did this and we

0:57:14.920 --> 0:57:17.600
<v Speaker 1>invested in No, no, no. This was about creating a

0:57:17.720 --> 0:57:21.000
<v Speaker 1>community of people around a common goal. So you mentioned

0:57:21.080 --> 0:57:23.720
<v Speaker 1>what we get wrong about markets. What else do we

0:57:23.800 --> 0:57:27.400
<v Speaker 1>get wrong about the state of the world. Well, so

0:57:27.600 --> 0:57:30.640
<v Speaker 1>much so. The most interesting thing I think that's markets

0:57:30.680 --> 0:57:32.840
<v Speaker 1>related is probably what's going on in economics. I'm a

0:57:32.880 --> 0:57:36.120
<v Speaker 1>big fan of Oli Peters has run something called ergodicity

0:57:36.200 --> 0:57:39.960
<v Speaker 1>economics from the Fine good city, because every time I

0:57:40.040 --> 0:57:42.600
<v Speaker 1>look it up, it seems Google gives me a different,

0:57:43.320 --> 0:57:46.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, reductionist. And so look with the caveat that

0:57:46.280 --> 0:57:48.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm neither a mathematician or an economist, and neither are

0:57:48.920 --> 0:57:52.680
<v Speaker 1>you either of those things. By training, um, fundamentally, we

0:57:52.840 --> 0:57:55.640
<v Speaker 1>assume certain things about how money and markets work. A

0:57:55.800 --> 0:57:58.960
<v Speaker 1>big one is that when you average something over time,

0:57:59.120 --> 0:58:00.720
<v Speaker 1>you end up with similar or answers to when you

0:58:00.760 --> 0:58:07.040
<v Speaker 1>average things over populations. Right, So if you flip a

0:58:07.080 --> 0:58:09.760
<v Speaker 1>coin a thousand times, we can come up with similar

0:58:09.800 --> 0:58:12.200
<v Speaker 1>expected values too, if we have a thousand people flip

0:58:12.240 --> 0:58:15.520
<v Speaker 1>a coin once. Right. The connection between those is the

0:58:15.680 --> 0:58:18.440
<v Speaker 1>ergotic assumption, as I understand it, And if I'm wrong,

0:58:18.480 --> 0:58:20.880
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure people will send me hate mail. A lot

0:58:21.000 --> 0:58:23.800
<v Speaker 1>of what we do in economics is based on that

0:58:24.000 --> 0:58:26.800
<v Speaker 1>sort of fundamental mathematical assumption that that you don't have

0:58:26.960 --> 0:58:29.280
<v Speaker 1>to worry too much about those things. The problem with

0:58:29.440 --> 0:58:32.959
<v Speaker 1>that is that it's frankly not true. Something as simple

0:58:33.000 --> 0:58:34.840
<v Speaker 1>as starting conditions. You can do this with just the

0:58:34.880 --> 0:58:37.640
<v Speaker 1>coin flip experiment. Right. If you and I flip coins,

0:58:37.720 --> 0:58:40.800
<v Speaker 1>and you flip heads four times in a row top

0:58:40.880 --> 0:58:43.400
<v Speaker 1>to bottom, and I just know I just randomly, you know,

0:58:43.440 --> 0:58:46.000
<v Speaker 1>heads tales, heads tails, but we're betting a hundred dollars

0:58:46.040 --> 0:58:48.640
<v Speaker 1>on each one. I will probably never catch up to

0:58:48.720 --> 0:58:52.720
<v Speaker 1>you because you are your path dependency on those starting

0:58:52.760 --> 0:58:55.160
<v Speaker 1>conditions of like you flip that coin heads five times

0:58:55.200 --> 0:58:58.360
<v Speaker 1>in a row, you now have capital, you have opportunity,

0:58:58.720 --> 0:59:01.240
<v Speaker 1>you can make smaller bets or lower Kelly number like

0:59:01.360 --> 0:59:05.320
<v Speaker 1>you get sort of stuff going on. And because I

0:59:05.440 --> 0:59:09.080
<v Speaker 1>flipped two tails off the beginning, I'm screwed. That is

0:59:09.160 --> 0:59:11.440
<v Speaker 1>a non or gotic function, right, because that's not the

0:59:11.520 --> 0:59:14.160
<v Speaker 1>same as saying, well, we're gonna have ten tho people

0:59:14.280 --> 0:59:17.160
<v Speaker 1>go through that same experiment on average, everybody's gonna flip

0:59:17.200 --> 0:59:19.720
<v Speaker 1>heads and tails about even so you're saying sequence of

0:59:19.800 --> 0:59:22.880
<v Speaker 1>returns matters, and you're agreeing with Bill Sharp that that's

0:59:22.920 --> 0:59:26.080
<v Speaker 1>one of the toughest problems in all of finances, absolutely,

0:59:26.200 --> 0:59:29.200
<v Speaker 1>is how do you model draw downs and withdrawals in

0:59:29.320 --> 0:59:33.200
<v Speaker 1>retirement if you get unlucky or lucky in the beginning

0:59:33.240 --> 0:59:36.280
<v Speaker 1>of your retirement. The implications are actually much more profound

0:59:36.440 --> 0:59:40.400
<v Speaker 1>than that, however, which is that because we've set up capitalism,

0:59:40.520 --> 0:59:44.880
<v Speaker 1>not just your portfolio, but global capitalism bakes these assumptions

0:59:44.960 --> 0:59:48.560
<v Speaker 1>in we end up with things like runaway problems, which

0:59:48.640 --> 0:59:50.480
<v Speaker 1>we see all over the place right the rise of

0:59:50.520 --> 0:59:53.480
<v Speaker 1>the billionaire class. It is no longer the case in

0:59:53.680 --> 0:59:58.640
<v Speaker 1>modern democratic capitalism that the best idea, best executed is

0:59:58.720 --> 1:00:01.680
<v Speaker 1>the one that will win. It's the best idea that's

1:00:01.720 --> 1:00:04.880
<v Speaker 1>best executed, that also has very good starting conditions and

1:00:04.960 --> 1:00:07.920
<v Speaker 1>access to capital, that's the one that wins. So another

1:00:08.000 --> 1:00:10.720
<v Speaker 1>quote of yours, the here and now is never an accident.

1:00:10.880 --> 1:00:15.520
<v Speaker 1>It's the result of myriad actions and influences, and understanding

1:00:15.640 --> 1:00:21.040
<v Speaker 1>those influences provides important context for planning ahead. In other words,

1:00:21.480 --> 1:00:25.200
<v Speaker 1>path dependency is enormous, and it's not just a function

1:00:25.320 --> 1:00:28.880
<v Speaker 1>of a single roll of the dice. It's the whole series, absolutely,

1:00:29.040 --> 1:00:32.680
<v Speaker 1>And also from the advice perspective, part of the reason

1:00:32.720 --> 1:00:35.360
<v Speaker 1>I put it that way is because boy, I just

1:00:35.520 --> 1:00:38.200
<v Speaker 1>get this emotional reaction myself, Like I look at the

1:00:38.240 --> 1:00:40.040
<v Speaker 1>market it's down five per cent, or I look at

1:00:40.080 --> 1:00:42.160
<v Speaker 1>my portfolio value and it's not what it was six

1:00:42.200 --> 1:00:45.080
<v Speaker 1>months ago. It's so easy to get caught up in

1:00:45.200 --> 1:00:47.760
<v Speaker 1>that regret of what happened and I could have done

1:00:47.800 --> 1:00:49.880
<v Speaker 1>things differently, or if I had put this trade on

1:00:50.000 --> 1:00:52.320
<v Speaker 1>on Tuesday, I would have made more money and have

1:00:52.600 --> 1:00:56.000
<v Speaker 1>that dictate what you do today, and that is stupid.

1:00:56.880 --> 1:00:59.800
<v Speaker 1>What you do today should be based on the markets today,

1:01:00.280 --> 1:01:02.520
<v Speaker 1>and the markets today are not the markets that were

1:01:02.600 --> 1:01:04.520
<v Speaker 1>there two weeks ago. When you didn't put on that

1:01:04.600 --> 1:01:07.760
<v Speaker 1>options trade. That would have been brilliant. So the ability

1:01:07.880 --> 1:01:12.840
<v Speaker 1>to let did we talk about that option was not

1:01:13.120 --> 1:01:15.880
<v Speaker 1>going I should have gone bigger. It's killing me and

1:01:15.960 --> 1:01:20.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at but you're hung up on this and

1:01:20.920 --> 1:01:24.240
<v Speaker 1>the reality is like, and it's a rounding. A constraint

1:01:24.320 --> 1:01:26.520
<v Speaker 1>you should have when you're thinking about your money today

1:01:26.680 --> 1:01:28.880
<v Speaker 1>is what are the transaction costs of not being in

1:01:28.960 --> 1:01:31.600
<v Speaker 1>what I'm in right now? Because if the answer was zero,

1:01:32.160 --> 1:01:34.640
<v Speaker 1>then every single morning you should start in cash and

1:01:34.720 --> 1:01:36.560
<v Speaker 1>make a whole new set of decisions about what you're

1:01:36.560 --> 1:01:40.360
<v Speaker 1>invested in today. If in a purely frictionless world, I

1:01:40.640 --> 1:01:42.560
<v Speaker 1>said we were done with ETF, wasn't there a new

1:01:42.600 --> 1:01:45.920
<v Speaker 1>ETF that wants to invest from the close to the

1:01:46.040 --> 1:01:50.680
<v Speaker 1>open and spy night chairs. Yeah. See, I'm fascinated by

1:01:51.200 --> 1:01:54.560
<v Speaker 1>people not understanding, Well, isn't that double or triple the

1:01:54.640 --> 1:01:57.600
<v Speaker 1>amount of time? Isn't that just time compounded? If we're

1:01:57.640 --> 1:02:00.680
<v Speaker 1>open from nine thirty to four six and a half hours.

1:02:00.760 --> 1:02:03.120
<v Speaker 1>The you're closed a lot more. You would think you

1:02:03.120 --> 1:02:05.840
<v Speaker 1>would be up more over time, right right, Well, they except,

1:02:05.920 --> 1:02:08.560
<v Speaker 1>of course, liquidity and sorts of other issues like that.

1:02:08.840 --> 1:02:11.760
<v Speaker 1>But that's kind of interesting, all right. So the biggest

1:02:11.840 --> 1:02:14.720
<v Speaker 1>question I saved four towards the end here, which is

1:02:15.440 --> 1:02:18.560
<v Speaker 1>what do we get wrong about human beings? Oh? Boy?

1:02:19.440 --> 1:02:21.080
<v Speaker 1>I think there are a couple of big ones. And

1:02:21.160 --> 1:02:23.840
<v Speaker 1>these are fairly recent revelations to me, Um, and some

1:02:23.960 --> 1:02:27.520
<v Speaker 1>of them are slightly philosophical. I think recognizing the inherent

1:02:27.680 --> 1:02:31.520
<v Speaker 1>unknowability of reality is an important first step. You know,

1:02:31.640 --> 1:02:35.800
<v Speaker 1>you mentioned the two millisecond lag on on perception. Um

1:02:35.840 --> 1:02:38.240
<v Speaker 1>annal Seth has a great book called Being Human or

1:02:38.240 --> 1:02:40.600
<v Speaker 1>Being You. I always get it wrong. Um. He's the

1:02:40.640 --> 1:02:43.840
<v Speaker 1>one who put forth the scientific proof that effectively we

1:02:43.960 --> 1:02:47.000
<v Speaker 1>hallucinate reality. Like what goes on in our heads is

1:02:47.080 --> 1:02:50.680
<v Speaker 1>a model of the molecular world around us. Do we

1:02:50.760 --> 1:02:52.880
<v Speaker 1>want to call that a hallucination or is it just

1:02:53.240 --> 1:02:56.520
<v Speaker 1>our model of the universe? Well, like, if you imagine

1:02:56.560 --> 1:02:59.280
<v Speaker 1>this coffee cup is here, right, you're already perceiving it

1:02:59.440 --> 1:03:07.040
<v Speaker 1>delayed from its existence here space etcetera. And that can

1:03:07.080 --> 1:03:09.200
<v Speaker 1>all get very woo woo and who cares, And so

1:03:09.320 --> 1:03:11.160
<v Speaker 1>that's fine. It can be woo when he cares, but

1:03:11.360 --> 1:03:13.280
<v Speaker 1>you have to start from there and build up. And

1:03:13.360 --> 1:03:17.480
<v Speaker 1>if you accept that fundamentally I cannot prove the table exists,

1:03:17.840 --> 1:03:20.600
<v Speaker 1>then getting really worked up about Tesla earnings is even

1:03:20.680 --> 1:03:23.840
<v Speaker 1>more ridiculous, right, because now, when you have an opinion

1:03:23.920 --> 1:03:27.360
<v Speaker 1>about Tesla earnings, it's based on a set of information

1:03:27.560 --> 1:03:30.680
<v Speaker 1>that is incredibly incomplete. I don't care whether you're the

1:03:30.800 --> 1:03:33.680
<v Speaker 1>most storied Tesla analyst in the world. I don't care

1:03:33.720 --> 1:03:36.840
<v Speaker 1>if you're Elon Musk. Elon Musk on the conference call

1:03:36.960 --> 1:03:40.040
<v Speaker 1>talking about earnings has no idea what's going on on

1:03:40.120 --> 1:03:42.600
<v Speaker 1>the floor right now. For all he knows, his factory

1:03:42.760 --> 1:03:46.720
<v Speaker 1>is burning down while he's talking. Right, So, we're inherently

1:03:46.920 --> 1:03:50.040
<v Speaker 1>always wrong about the state of anything that we are

1:03:50.080 --> 1:03:54.440
<v Speaker 1>asserting truth on. So it's about being less wrong when

1:03:54.520 --> 1:03:58.200
<v Speaker 1>we're trying to make these assessments about I like to

1:03:58.240 --> 1:04:02.000
<v Speaker 1>say the future is inherently known and unknowable. You're saying

1:04:02.120 --> 1:04:07.360
<v Speaker 1>the present is inherently inherent Yeah, absolutely unknowable. It's all probabilistic, right,

1:04:07.480 --> 1:04:10.560
<v Speaker 1>And you know, fundamentally, you start thinking about quantum computing, right,

1:04:10.680 --> 1:04:14.760
<v Speaker 1>Quantum computing largely ends up being about convincing yourself you're

1:04:14.800 --> 1:04:17.960
<v Speaker 1>not sure right, because you can't actually measure this state

1:04:18.000 --> 1:04:20.160
<v Speaker 1>of a cuban in real time because then the wave

1:04:20.400 --> 1:04:24.320
<v Speaker 1>collapses and it's no longer a quantum computer. So managing

1:04:24.480 --> 1:04:28.240
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty turns out not just to be a managerial tool

1:04:28.400 --> 1:04:30.800
<v Speaker 1>for guys who sit around and talk about money. It's

1:04:30.800 --> 1:04:35.440
<v Speaker 1>actually the fabric of the universe is based on managing probability,

1:04:35.760 --> 1:04:40.640
<v Speaker 1>not understanding certainty. So if you approach everything from that

1:04:40.800 --> 1:04:43.320
<v Speaker 1>perspective that, Okay, whether or not I'm going to go

1:04:43.520 --> 1:04:46.760
<v Speaker 1>on the subway to get down to the hotel, that

1:04:47.040 --> 1:04:50.000
<v Speaker 1>there's an inherent level of uncertainty in that journey, and

1:04:50.080 --> 1:04:52.440
<v Speaker 1>that I have to be willing to accept. It's like, okay, well,

1:04:52.680 --> 1:04:55.080
<v Speaker 1>sixty of the time subway is going to be faster,

1:04:55.640 --> 1:04:57.880
<v Speaker 1>but here's all the things that could go wrong. Right

1:04:59.000 --> 1:05:01.400
<v Speaker 1>time it's slower, and two percent of the time I'm

1:05:01.400 --> 1:05:04.640
<v Speaker 1>going to get or whatever rights. So I think that

1:05:04.800 --> 1:05:07.120
<v Speaker 1>that is, you know, there's a level of humility that

1:05:07.200 --> 1:05:10.480
<v Speaker 1>comes from acknowledging the inherent unknowability of whatever is you

1:05:10.520 --> 1:05:13.200
<v Speaker 1>think you're an expert on um. But at the same time,

1:05:13.280 --> 1:05:16.320
<v Speaker 1>I think thinking probabilistically. I mean, I think Jim O'Shaughnessy

1:05:16.360 --> 1:05:19.240
<v Speaker 1>talks about, you know, learning how to think probabilistically and

1:05:19.280 --> 1:05:23.640
<v Speaker 1>a probabilistic world is opposed to determinalistically, and that I

1:05:23.760 --> 1:05:26.760
<v Speaker 1>think is very true. So, you know, learning to understand

1:05:26.840 --> 1:05:28.880
<v Speaker 1>to think in bets. I think it is really Importanti

1:05:28.920 --> 1:05:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Duke's book on this. I think it's one of the

1:05:31.080 --> 1:05:34.400
<v Speaker 1>key pieces of reading people should have because it makes

1:05:34.480 --> 1:05:36.840
<v Speaker 1>it very human. Right, This idea of thinking and bets,

1:05:36.920 --> 1:05:39.800
<v Speaker 1>thinking and probabilities probably the best thing online poker has

1:05:39.800 --> 1:05:42.320
<v Speaker 1>ever done to the country. That's interesting, And now I

1:05:42.480 --> 1:05:45.200
<v Speaker 1>know why you and I get along so well, because

1:05:45.320 --> 1:05:50.120
<v Speaker 1>we both have the same belief system about how little

1:05:50.280 --> 1:05:55.000
<v Speaker 1>is actually knowable and why probabilistic thinking is the only

1:05:55.080 --> 1:05:57.440
<v Speaker 1>way to approach risk assets. Yeah, I mean, at the

1:05:57.640 --> 1:06:01.200
<v Speaker 1>at the base, all beliefs are wrong right by definition.

1:06:01.240 --> 1:06:03.480
<v Speaker 1>If I can't prove that I'm in this room, if

1:06:03.520 --> 1:06:06.920
<v Speaker 1>I can't prove that fundamental reality is phenomenal logically true,

1:06:07.160 --> 1:06:10.440
<v Speaker 1>I could prove the table is real by just accelerating

1:06:10.520 --> 1:06:13.760
<v Speaker 1>your skull towards it. Rapidly. Does that disprove it? Or

1:06:14.000 --> 1:06:16.440
<v Speaker 1>or am I being too literal and I'm not being sarcastic?

1:06:16.520 --> 1:06:19.720
<v Speaker 1>You know, working with material objects is that where everybody

1:06:19.960 --> 1:06:22.360
<v Speaker 1>falls down on this? The problem is like, what's actually

1:06:22.440 --> 1:06:25.120
<v Speaker 1>going on when you're holding onto this table? Is just

1:06:25.280 --> 1:06:28.080
<v Speaker 1>a set of somatic inputs and visual inputs. So the

1:06:28.120 --> 1:06:31.400
<v Speaker 1>way we perceive it is sufficient for our purposes, but

1:06:31.640 --> 1:06:36.080
<v Speaker 1>objectively isn't really as a species, right, we have learned

1:06:36.280 --> 1:06:39.160
<v Speaker 1>these affordances ways to interact with the environment. I am

1:06:39.200 --> 1:06:41.240
<v Speaker 1>fairly certain if I hit a table, it will always

1:06:41.320 --> 1:06:44.000
<v Speaker 1>be there. That is, of course not true when you

1:06:44.040 --> 1:06:46.520
<v Speaker 1>walk into a really well made illusion. It's not true

1:06:46.520 --> 1:06:49.240
<v Speaker 1>when you put on a VR headset, right, So we're

1:06:49.320 --> 1:06:54.120
<v Speaker 1>accepting this version of our perception as somehow phenomenal, logically real.

1:06:54.640 --> 1:06:56.640
<v Speaker 1>But when we put on the VR headset, we have

1:06:56.760 --> 1:06:58.200
<v Speaker 1>a brain space where we're like, well, I know the

1:06:58.240 --> 1:07:01.080
<v Speaker 1>table is not really there. But then again, most people

1:07:01.120 --> 1:07:03.240
<v Speaker 1>put on that VR headset and they fall down when

1:07:03.280 --> 1:07:04.919
<v Speaker 1>they go to lean on the table that's not there.

1:07:05.160 --> 1:07:07.800
<v Speaker 1>Oh is that true? I mean you've seen the video.

1:07:07.840 --> 1:07:10.360
<v Speaker 1>You've watched millions of these videos of people doing hysterically

1:07:10.400 --> 1:07:12.640
<v Speaker 1>stupid things with VR helmets on, Well, it's when you

1:07:12.760 --> 1:07:15.640
<v Speaker 1>look at them when you're not in the same exact

1:07:15.760 --> 1:07:18.720
<v Speaker 1>and what they're idiots, No, they're not. They're perceiving a

1:07:18.800 --> 1:07:22.960
<v Speaker 1>different reality than you are. And their model got confused

1:07:23.080 --> 1:07:25.720
<v Speaker 1>and thought that the table was real because they're so

1:07:25.960 --> 1:07:27.960
<v Speaker 1>used to seeing a table and thinking the tables really

1:07:28.000 --> 1:07:30.400
<v Speaker 1>And I still think of VR as kind of blocky

1:07:30.560 --> 1:07:34.280
<v Speaker 1>and not you know, when the technology accelerates to the

1:07:34.400 --> 1:07:38.120
<v Speaker 1>whole of deck from Star Trek where the differences and imperceptible,

1:07:38.240 --> 1:07:40.400
<v Speaker 1>and it's like, then, how do you know what's real

1:07:40.480 --> 1:07:42.120
<v Speaker 1>and what's not? And I'm not one of these guys

1:07:42.160 --> 1:07:43.880
<v Speaker 1>who's like, we're all have been a simulation And I

1:07:43.920 --> 1:07:46.280
<v Speaker 1>don't want to go in that argument. Whatever I think

1:07:46.280 --> 1:07:49.000
<v Speaker 1>they're entertaining. But my point is from a very practical,

1:07:49.120 --> 1:07:51.920
<v Speaker 1>real world perspective, let's bring it back to dollars and cents.

1:07:53.080 --> 1:07:55.480
<v Speaker 1>You have to have the humility of your convictions. Like

1:07:55.560 --> 1:07:58.320
<v Speaker 1>I look at my Schwab account right now and I say, oh,

1:07:58.400 --> 1:08:00.720
<v Speaker 1>I get the snapshot of reality what it is. It's

1:08:00.760 --> 1:08:04.200
<v Speaker 1>in these things right now. For reasons that I had

1:08:04.240 --> 1:08:06.240
<v Speaker 1>good reasons to put him in the Emerging Markets Fund

1:08:06.320 --> 1:08:09.160
<v Speaker 1>or whatever, But every day I should be asking myself

1:08:09.200 --> 1:08:12.160
<v Speaker 1>whether that's still true, because the world changes rather quickly

1:08:12.240 --> 1:08:14.560
<v Speaker 1>if you haven't noticed. You and I could do this

1:08:15.040 --> 1:08:20.680
<v Speaker 1>for four hours, and in fact we have um on

1:08:20.800 --> 1:08:24.840
<v Speaker 1>a canoe on a lake talking about this endlessly, but

1:08:25.120 --> 1:08:28.000
<v Speaker 1>we only have the studio for another few minutes. So

1:08:28.400 --> 1:08:31.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna jump to my favorite questions, but I'm gonna

1:08:31.439 --> 1:08:33.479
<v Speaker 1>mix a few of these up, and they're not going

1:08:33.560 --> 1:08:36.640
<v Speaker 1>to be the same questions I think, Um, the what

1:08:36.760 --> 1:08:39.200
<v Speaker 1>are you streaming these days is getting a little long

1:08:39.240 --> 1:08:42.280
<v Speaker 1>in the tooth if I'm asking about video, So I

1:08:42.400 --> 1:08:45.280
<v Speaker 1>want to mix it up and ask you what music.

1:08:45.840 --> 1:08:47.800
<v Speaker 1>I've been on a big music tare lately. One of

1:08:47.840 --> 1:08:49.519
<v Speaker 1>the it turned out on Twitter one of my most

1:08:49.600 --> 1:08:51.360
<v Speaker 1>engaged threads I've ever done, is I just heard of

1:08:51.479 --> 1:08:55.000
<v Speaker 1>post a new song, like every couple of days in there. Um,

1:08:55.160 --> 1:08:57.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm a big believer that you have to be paying

1:08:57.840 --> 1:08:59.800
<v Speaker 1>attention to the now if you want to have any

1:09:00.120 --> 1:09:02.960
<v Speaker 1>of understanding the now. So I try to only listen

1:09:03.040 --> 1:09:05.960
<v Speaker 1>to new music. Really doesn't mean that I don't occasionally

1:09:06.040 --> 1:09:07.680
<v Speaker 1>toss on an old Bowie tune that I love or

1:09:07.720 --> 1:09:10.559
<v Speaker 1>something like that. But four to six hours a day.

1:09:10.840 --> 1:09:13.559
<v Speaker 1>I'm listening as much as I can to brand new music,

1:09:13.720 --> 1:09:16.719
<v Speaker 1>and I tend to really listen to basically college radio.

1:09:17.320 --> 1:09:20.320
<v Speaker 1>Listen to college radio since nine three and I sort

1:09:20.360 --> 1:09:23.360
<v Speaker 1>of never stopped. Now most of that is intermediated either

1:09:23.520 --> 1:09:27.720
<v Speaker 1>through sirius xmu on sirius x where find podcasts are

1:09:27.760 --> 1:09:31.479
<v Speaker 1>held like this one sometimes or various like remember blogs,

1:09:31.720 --> 1:09:34.920
<v Speaker 1>they're big, big music, big music blogs back in the day,

1:09:35.040 --> 1:09:37.920
<v Speaker 1>like Gorilla versus Bear Brooklyn Vegan. These guys are all

1:09:37.960 --> 1:09:41.840
<v Speaker 1>still around um and they're amazing and they're incredible source

1:09:41.920 --> 1:09:43.479
<v Speaker 1>of new music. And I think that we're in a

1:09:43.640 --> 1:09:46.640
<v Speaker 1>golden age of independent music. Like in the last two

1:09:46.720 --> 1:09:49.760
<v Speaker 1>or three years there has been phenomenal There has been

1:09:49.800 --> 1:09:54.960
<v Speaker 1>a number of articles about streaming has gone classic rock,

1:09:55.520 --> 1:09:59.599
<v Speaker 1>thirty year old music, and new music has a really

1:09:59.680 --> 1:10:03.839
<v Speaker 1>different called time being discoverable on all the streaming services.

1:10:04.280 --> 1:10:07.400
<v Speaker 1>So if you want to discover new music, how do

1:10:07.479 --> 1:10:10.679
<v Speaker 1>you do that? So Grilla versus Barron brooklyn Vegan dot com,

1:10:10.800 --> 1:10:14.160
<v Speaker 1>both of them are are blogs where every day, like literally,

1:10:14.240 --> 1:10:16.800
<v Speaker 1>I think one of them posts here's the twenties six

1:10:16.880 --> 1:10:21.280
<v Speaker 1>songs that were released today every day, and you can

1:10:21.640 --> 1:10:25.320
<v Speaker 1>work with new music in the background. It's not terribly distracted. No,

1:10:25.400 --> 1:10:27.160
<v Speaker 1>I mean I skip stuff I don't like. I don't

1:10:27.160 --> 1:10:29.439
<v Speaker 1>want to pretend that I just like universally love everything.

1:10:29.760 --> 1:10:32.400
<v Speaker 1>But you know somebody who's putting up a playlist that's

1:10:32.720 --> 1:10:35.200
<v Speaker 1>new music every week. You know, there's a top forty

1:10:35.200 --> 1:10:37.760
<v Speaker 1>alternative charts that I listened to that's new every week

1:10:37.800 --> 1:10:40.559
<v Speaker 1>based on college radio airplay. And so I'll just put

1:10:40.600 --> 1:10:42.560
<v Speaker 1>down on repeats the same playlist to just keep it

1:10:42.720 --> 1:10:45.600
<v Speaker 1>rolling repeat. But it's new stuff every single day. The

1:10:45.640 --> 1:10:48.640
<v Speaker 1>stuff coming out of particularly like Philadelphia and Chicago in

1:10:48.720 --> 1:10:51.960
<v Speaker 1>the new music scene, Um, all zoomers, like all kids

1:10:52.000 --> 1:10:55.040
<v Speaker 1>in their twenties, just amazing stuff. Like a couple bands

1:10:55.200 --> 1:10:57.439
<v Speaker 1>of note, Um, wet Leg is one that I'm a

1:10:57.520 --> 1:10:59.600
<v Speaker 1>big fan of, very much a sonic youth kind of

1:10:59.800 --> 1:11:02.679
<v Speaker 1>ye Horse Squirrel out of Chicago again, a very sonic

1:11:02.760 --> 1:11:06.160
<v Speaker 1>youth kind of vibe. Philadelphia, there's so many bands down there.

1:11:06.160 --> 1:11:09.559
<v Speaker 1>Alex G just dropped an incredible album down there. Um

1:11:10.360 --> 1:11:12.720
<v Speaker 1>you know Dead d e h D and other incredible

1:11:12.760 --> 1:11:16.080
<v Speaker 1>bands there. Chicago as well. But these little d i

1:11:16.280 --> 1:11:18.880
<v Speaker 1>y music scenes in in a couple of major cities

1:11:19.439 --> 1:11:23.400
<v Speaker 1>just unbelievable creative stuff, very a lot of it's very experimental,

1:11:23.560 --> 1:11:27.040
<v Speaker 1>fourteen minute songs. I'm hearing a lot of alt rock

1:11:27.360 --> 1:11:32.160
<v Speaker 1>and new synth, but not hip hop that list. I

1:11:32.240 --> 1:11:34.759
<v Speaker 1>don't listen to a ton of what I would consider

1:11:34.920 --> 1:11:38.280
<v Speaker 1>mainstream hip hop. Um, it's very distracting if you're trying

1:11:38.320 --> 1:11:41.280
<v Speaker 1>to read or write exactly. That's that's the big issue.

1:11:41.360 --> 1:11:44.920
<v Speaker 1>Is that the lyrics, the lyric, that's it's important. Um.

1:11:45.040 --> 1:11:47.320
<v Speaker 1>I will listen to hip hop generally on headphones, like

1:11:47.720 --> 1:11:50.400
<v Speaker 1>sitting down in a chair with headphones on to listen,

1:11:50.640 --> 1:11:52.439
<v Speaker 1>which I don't think that many people do, and I

1:11:52.479 --> 1:11:55.439
<v Speaker 1>wish more people did. Um. But you know in that

1:11:55.600 --> 1:11:57.479
<v Speaker 1>space like Run the Jewels, I'm a huge Run the

1:11:57.520 --> 1:11:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Jewels fan, and that that's more like an indie hip

1:11:59.800 --> 1:12:02.680
<v Speaker 1>hop artist. UM, so that kind of stuff is a

1:12:02.720 --> 1:12:04.720
<v Speaker 1>little bit more my jam. I was really into hip

1:12:04.720 --> 1:12:07.880
<v Speaker 1>hop back in the eighties nineties era, but you know,

1:12:08.040 --> 1:12:09.639
<v Speaker 1>not not at the level I know some of your

1:12:09.680 --> 1:12:13.280
<v Speaker 1>boys are at a ridd um yeah, my my hip

1:12:13.360 --> 1:12:16.479
<v Speaker 1>hop stop with Paul's boutique from the Beat. Yeah, I

1:12:16.520 --> 1:12:19.799
<v Speaker 1>mean we're both which really which really is the ultimate

1:12:20.080 --> 1:12:23.000
<v Speaker 1>for you? That's the peace I mean, but the law

1:12:23.200 --> 1:12:25.840
<v Speaker 1>changed and you couldn't sample the way they I mean

1:12:25.880 --> 1:12:28.320
<v Speaker 1>they sample beatles and Sergeant pet You couldn't do that

1:12:28.400 --> 1:12:30.800
<v Speaker 1>today without being sued. Well, the interesting thing is now

1:12:30.920 --> 1:12:32.560
<v Speaker 1>in the d I Y community, in the in the

1:12:32.600 --> 1:12:36.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of true indie community, that stuff is really rampant.

1:12:36.360 --> 1:12:39.120
<v Speaker 1>But it's happening outside of the boundaries of the big

1:12:39.200 --> 1:12:42.160
<v Speaker 1>record companies. Right. It's literally, you know, one artist in

1:12:42.200 --> 1:12:45.040
<v Speaker 1>Philadelphia calling up another artist in Chicago saying, Hey, I

1:12:45.120 --> 1:12:46.960
<v Speaker 1>love the beat you put down on that half made

1:12:47.000 --> 1:12:49.200
<v Speaker 1>track you dropped on band Camp. Can I sample that

1:12:49.280 --> 1:12:52.240
<v Speaker 1>in my next thing? And that's happening like crazy, But

1:12:52.320 --> 1:12:54.360
<v Speaker 1>they're not going back to the old blue note, you know,

1:12:54.760 --> 1:12:56.960
<v Speaker 1>archives like the Beastie Boys got to not getting too

1:12:57.000 --> 1:12:59.479
<v Speaker 1>sample a whole lot of love. So it's funny. If

1:12:59.479 --> 1:13:01.679
<v Speaker 1>I'm writing and I want some music on in the background,

1:13:01.840 --> 1:13:04.519
<v Speaker 1>I'll go to a weekly show by John Pizzarelli called

1:13:04.600 --> 1:13:09.360
<v Speaker 1>Radio Deluxe, and it's the classic American songbook from the thirties, forties,

1:13:09.400 --> 1:13:12.640
<v Speaker 1>fifties and jazz, and I can have that operating in

1:13:12.640 --> 1:13:15.840
<v Speaker 1>the background and it doesn't interfere with my ability to

1:13:16.280 --> 1:13:21.559
<v Speaker 1>read or write. The songs are familiar, and it's more music.

1:13:21.760 --> 1:13:25.800
<v Speaker 1>It's more music than lyrics. So the jazz side of

1:13:25.840 --> 1:13:29.799
<v Speaker 1>it allows me to function. I think what you're describing

1:13:29.840 --> 1:13:33.040
<v Speaker 1>would be really hard to work with In terms of

1:13:34.240 --> 1:13:36.760
<v Speaker 1>writ It totally depends on the kind of work that

1:13:36.840 --> 1:13:39.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm doing in the moment. If I'm reading academic work,

1:13:39.800 --> 1:13:42.320
<v Speaker 1>if I'm looking at red legislation, and and you know,

1:13:42.439 --> 1:13:44.800
<v Speaker 1>reading news and catching up on Twitter, and I can

1:13:44.880 --> 1:13:48.080
<v Speaker 1>listen to anything. If I'm actively taking the words out

1:13:48.120 --> 1:13:50.040
<v Speaker 1>of my head and putting them on paper, generally I'm

1:13:50.080 --> 1:13:52.519
<v Speaker 1>in complete silence. But I tend to compose in my

1:13:52.640 --> 1:13:54.519
<v Speaker 1>head and then write all at once. So I'll write

1:13:54.560 --> 1:13:56.439
<v Speaker 1>something in my head for three or four days and

1:13:56.520 --> 1:13:58.759
<v Speaker 1>then I'll put five thousand words out in thirty minutes.

1:13:58.960 --> 1:14:02.840
<v Speaker 1>Yeah you me. Morgan Housel says the same thing, that

1:14:03.120 --> 1:14:05.640
<v Speaker 1>the most important part of writing is the couple of

1:14:05.720 --> 1:14:07.920
<v Speaker 1>days before you sea. It's usually the most important part

1:14:07.920 --> 1:14:09.599
<v Speaker 1>of writing to me is the two hour walk at

1:14:09.640 --> 1:14:12.160
<v Speaker 1>six am. That's the most important part of writing. Then

1:14:12.200 --> 1:14:14.040
<v Speaker 1>I sit down at eight start writing, and then that's

1:14:14.080 --> 1:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>the easy part. My wife makes fun of me. But

1:14:16.200 --> 1:14:18.720
<v Speaker 1>if I'm giving a presentation that gets written in the

1:14:18.800 --> 1:14:22.240
<v Speaker 1>shower and she's like, what are you saying in the shower.

1:14:22.280 --> 1:14:24.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm like, I'm just rehearsing. I have to be moving.

1:14:24.280 --> 1:14:28.560
<v Speaker 1>For me. It's there's there's a somatic company and that

1:14:28.680 --> 1:14:34.719
<v Speaker 1>really helps the get the articular. So I normally ask

1:14:34.800 --> 1:14:38.920
<v Speaker 1>about My second question is about mentors. So I want

1:14:38.920 --> 1:14:41.760
<v Speaker 1>to ask this question because from Barclays to eat f

1:14:41.880 --> 1:14:46.800
<v Speaker 1>dot com to vitify, who helped shape your career? Oh

1:14:46.880 --> 1:14:50.680
<v Speaker 1>my gosh, a million people you know, probably you know,

1:14:50.840 --> 1:14:52.840
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily people who will know, but like, there was

1:14:53.240 --> 1:14:55.559
<v Speaker 1>a a guy who was sort of my uncle growing up,

1:14:55.640 --> 1:14:59.680
<v Speaker 1>who was a Vietnam being on VET mortar surgeon and

1:15:00.320 --> 1:15:01.920
<v Speaker 1>blown off his hand and he was just sort of

1:15:01.960 --> 1:15:04.040
<v Speaker 1>growing up in Lenox. He was an uncle of a

1:15:04.120 --> 1:15:08.200
<v Speaker 1>friend of mine, and he was probably the model that

1:15:08.360 --> 1:15:09.960
<v Speaker 1>I put in my head when I'm sort of like,

1:15:10.040 --> 1:15:12.040
<v Speaker 1>what would so and so do you know? It would

1:15:12.080 --> 1:15:15.360
<v Speaker 1>definitely be Al robertson Um, who was a businessman of

1:15:15.439 --> 1:15:18.439
<v Speaker 1>some note. But in terms of my direct career, you know,

1:15:18.479 --> 1:15:21.960
<v Speaker 1>I look back at those early days at UM Wells Fargo, Nico,

1:15:22.240 --> 1:15:25.840
<v Speaker 1>and for sure I needed to be taught stuff back then.

1:15:26.400 --> 1:15:29.200
<v Speaker 1>UM and I give Patty Dunn and Fred grauer Um

1:15:29.280 --> 1:15:31.719
<v Speaker 1>and Blake Grossman a lot of a lot of credit

1:15:32.040 --> 1:15:34.439
<v Speaker 1>for that because I was very young, and they're all

1:15:34.439 --> 1:15:37.200
<v Speaker 1>probably ten fifteen years my senior at the time, and

1:15:37.479 --> 1:15:40.439
<v Speaker 1>they were they were incredibly important. But um, Honestly, if

1:15:40.479 --> 1:15:43.320
<v Speaker 1>I picked one person, probably Matt Hogan, who's ten years

1:15:43.400 --> 1:15:46.519
<v Speaker 1>my junior. I've been working with him since nineties six

1:15:46.680 --> 1:15:48.519
<v Speaker 1>or seven. He was a biotech analyst when I was

1:15:48.600 --> 1:15:51.960
<v Speaker 1>running money. He and I just have stayed incredibly close

1:15:52.040 --> 1:15:53.840
<v Speaker 1>over the years. And if there's like one person who

1:15:53.880 --> 1:15:55.680
<v Speaker 1>I was like, if I had a business decision, like

1:15:56.200 --> 1:16:00.320
<v Speaker 1>career choice, ethical quandary, something like that is a question,

1:16:00.360 --> 1:16:02.040
<v Speaker 1>would be the first person in call. He seems to

1:16:02.080 --> 1:16:06.479
<v Speaker 1>be a very sensible, thoughtful person and not given to

1:16:07.040 --> 1:16:09.479
<v Speaker 1>you know, he's a main guide. I mean, that's that's

1:16:09.520 --> 1:16:11.719
<v Speaker 1>what that's how he started in life. He was literally

1:16:11.800 --> 1:16:13.960
<v Speaker 1>in college, got his guiding certificate in Maine. And we

1:16:14.040 --> 1:16:17.840
<v Speaker 1>know what those guys are, right, that's the most practical people.

1:16:18.200 --> 1:16:20.639
<v Speaker 1>God dang planet. How do you survive and not get

1:16:20.720 --> 1:16:23.800
<v Speaker 1>trampled by an elk exactly or attacked by a bear

1:16:23.920 --> 1:16:27.240
<v Speaker 1>when you're out hunting moose or bear. It's all about

1:16:27.760 --> 1:16:32.360
<v Speaker 1>reality there talk about recognizing reality. The penalty there for

1:16:32.479 --> 1:16:35.479
<v Speaker 1>being wrong is death, right, it's not. My account is

1:16:35.520 --> 1:16:39.439
<v Speaker 1>down six percent. It's a bunch of bears disembedstment. That's

1:16:39.439 --> 1:16:41.839
<v Speaker 1>why I'm such a fan of being outside in general, honestly,

1:16:42.040 --> 1:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>is because like, if you're three miles in on the

1:16:43.960 --> 1:16:46.639
<v Speaker 1>Appalachian Trail in the middle of the woods and storm

1:16:46.720 --> 1:16:48.840
<v Speaker 1>comes up, that's as real as the world guests. Right

1:16:48.880 --> 1:16:50.800
<v Speaker 1>when you're at a cell phone coverage, standing in your

1:16:50.840 --> 1:16:52.960
<v Speaker 1>sneakers in the middle of the woods, that's as real

1:16:53.040 --> 1:16:55.719
<v Speaker 1>as the world gets. There's no bodies, there's no people,

1:16:56.080 --> 1:16:59.599
<v Speaker 1>there's no stuff, there's no man made anything. That's base

1:16:59.640 --> 1:17:03.000
<v Speaker 1>state reality. I've had this conversation with people who out

1:17:03.040 --> 1:17:05.400
<v Speaker 1>on the water on boats. It's like, listen, you can't

1:17:05.400 --> 1:17:07.760
<v Speaker 1>flip on channel two and get the weather forecast. You

1:17:07.960 --> 1:17:10.679
<v Speaker 1>need the marine forecast because if it's six ft swells

1:17:11.000 --> 1:17:14.120
<v Speaker 1>and forty mile on our winds coming up, you need

1:17:14.240 --> 1:17:17.640
<v Speaker 1>to know that and basically stay in the marina, not

1:17:17.800 --> 1:17:20.240
<v Speaker 1>go out. Not oh, it's gonna be sunny out today.

1:17:20.400 --> 1:17:23.120
<v Speaker 1>That's sort of Donning Krueger. Hey, you need to really

1:17:23.240 --> 1:17:26.040
<v Speaker 1>know what you don't know and not assume you're good

1:17:26.080 --> 1:17:30.880
<v Speaker 1>at this outdoors. Mother nature is a cruel mistress. There

1:17:31.040 --> 1:17:33.720
<v Speaker 1>is no fooling around well. And I've run into this

1:17:33.800 --> 1:17:35.160
<v Speaker 1>all the time. I live in the woods up in

1:17:35.200 --> 1:17:37.760
<v Speaker 1>the Berkshires in Massachusetts. I run into New Yorkers who

1:17:37.800 --> 1:17:39.599
<v Speaker 1>come up to go hiking all the time, who were

1:17:39.640 --> 1:17:42.880
<v Speaker 1>heading off cliffs, like I mean, it's just almost every

1:17:43.000 --> 1:17:45.120
<v Speaker 1>hike that I go out, and particularly this time of year,

1:17:45.320 --> 1:17:46.880
<v Speaker 1>it's so easy to get lost if you're not used

1:17:46.880 --> 1:17:49.080
<v Speaker 1>to walking around in the leaves in the woods. And

1:17:49.400 --> 1:17:51.360
<v Speaker 1>just just this last weekend, I was walking around just

1:17:51.479 --> 1:17:53.200
<v Speaker 1>on a trail and I was just like, what the

1:17:53.400 --> 1:17:55.880
<v Speaker 1>heck are these people doing going over that ridge line.

1:17:55.880 --> 1:17:59.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm like, hello, don't go that, don't go there. One

1:17:59.120 --> 1:18:01.200
<v Speaker 1>more step is that do Yeah, they'll figure it out.

1:18:01.320 --> 1:18:04.040
<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about books. We've mentioned a lot. Give us

1:18:04.080 --> 1:18:06.559
<v Speaker 1>some of your favorites and what you're reading currently. Oh boy,

1:18:07.280 --> 1:18:09.120
<v Speaker 1>the most impressive book I've read in the last couple

1:18:09.120 --> 1:18:12.640
<v Speaker 1>of years is The Matter with Things by Ian McGilchrist,

1:18:12.840 --> 1:18:17.240
<v Speaker 1>which is fIF pages. It's fifteen under pages of neuroscience

1:18:17.520 --> 1:18:20.599
<v Speaker 1>and psychology, I would say is probably the best way

1:18:20.640 --> 1:18:22.479
<v Speaker 1>to describe. How do you attack a book? Like that.

1:18:22.600 --> 1:18:24.880
<v Speaker 1>You don't sit down and start plowing through. Oh no, So,

1:18:25.040 --> 1:18:26.639
<v Speaker 1>like we haven't talked about this, how to read a book?

1:18:26.640 --> 1:18:28.840
<v Speaker 1>You know how to read a book? I think I

1:18:29.000 --> 1:18:30.720
<v Speaker 1>do because I read a lot of books. No, no,

1:18:30.800 --> 1:18:32.800
<v Speaker 1>there's a book called how do the book? Okay, so

1:18:32.920 --> 1:18:34.800
<v Speaker 1>let's talk about So how to read a book is

1:18:34.840 --> 1:18:36.800
<v Speaker 1>something that I was handed when I was You need

1:18:36.880 --> 1:18:39.439
<v Speaker 1>a pamphlet years old or something like that, and it

1:18:39.520 --> 1:18:42.080
<v Speaker 1>basically outlines it's written in the thirties or something like that.

1:18:42.320 --> 1:18:45.360
<v Speaker 1>It's a very straightforward system for breaking down a book.

1:18:45.800 --> 1:18:48.240
<v Speaker 1>And it starts with like, okay, you have been handed

1:18:48.320 --> 1:18:50.840
<v Speaker 1>a book. Here's what you do in the first ten minutes.

1:18:51.200 --> 1:18:53.840
<v Speaker 1>And it's not for fiction where you're worried about spoiling something.

1:18:53.960 --> 1:18:56.439
<v Speaker 1>This is really for nonfiction. And there's a process they

1:18:56.520 --> 1:18:58.920
<v Speaker 1>go through of like, okay, you read the first four

1:18:59.000 --> 1:19:01.519
<v Speaker 1>paragraphs of the entry production. You go through and you

1:19:01.600 --> 1:19:03.840
<v Speaker 1>read all of the chapter headings, and you know, usually

1:19:03.840 --> 1:19:06.200
<v Speaker 1>through the table of contents to try to understand the flow.

1:19:06.520 --> 1:19:08.919
<v Speaker 1>There's something you don't understand, go read the first paragraph

1:19:09.000 --> 1:19:11.280
<v Speaker 1>of that chapter so that you now understand the flow.

1:19:11.760 --> 1:19:15.040
<v Speaker 1>Then go read the introduction to the concluding chapter, and

1:19:15.160 --> 1:19:17.560
<v Speaker 1>by that point you should understand does this book have

1:19:17.720 --> 1:19:20.960
<v Speaker 1>anything in it for me? Right? And in the in

1:19:21.200 --> 1:19:24.720
<v Speaker 1>that modality, you probably reject half the books you open, right,

1:19:24.760 --> 1:19:25.920
<v Speaker 1>you can. You can do that in the in the

1:19:25.960 --> 1:19:29.360
<v Speaker 1>bookstore literally, right that what you're just it's funny you

1:19:29.400 --> 1:19:31.519
<v Speaker 1>said that, because what you're describing used to be my

1:19:31.600 --> 1:19:33.960
<v Speaker 1>bookstore route exactly. So that's at that would be a

1:19:34.080 --> 1:19:38.080
<v Speaker 1>level one read. A level to read is with whatever

1:19:38.200 --> 1:19:42.160
<v Speaker 1>speed you want, you consume the available content of the

1:19:42.240 --> 1:19:46.080
<v Speaker 1>book itself. So that's literally just reading the book. Now.

1:19:46.800 --> 1:19:49.400
<v Speaker 1>I tend to do that very quickly. That kind of

1:19:49.479 --> 1:19:52.000
<v Speaker 1>reading I can be very very quick with. And that's

1:19:52.000 --> 1:19:54.680
<v Speaker 1>a level to read. I don't mean speed reading. I

1:19:54.760 --> 1:19:59.360
<v Speaker 1>mean just turn pages, understand what, understand what's important. You're

1:19:59.360 --> 1:20:01.400
<v Speaker 1>not going to read every single word on the page.

1:20:01.439 --> 1:20:03.960
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna get the gist of every major point made

1:20:04.000 --> 1:20:06.160
<v Speaker 1>in the book. Right, You're doing your own spot. Unless

1:20:06.240 --> 1:20:09.400
<v Speaker 1>it's a Bill Bryson or an Ed Chancelor, somebody who's

1:20:09.479 --> 1:20:12.120
<v Speaker 1>writing is dense and deep and you really need to

1:20:12.880 --> 1:20:16.200
<v Speaker 1>think about each sentence in each Yeah. Well, so even

1:20:16.360 --> 1:20:18.040
<v Speaker 1>in the modality of how to read a book, a

1:20:18.160 --> 1:20:20.320
<v Speaker 1>level to read even that you would let skip through

1:20:20.320 --> 1:20:22.560
<v Speaker 1>a little bit, because the objective of a level to

1:20:22.760 --> 1:20:26.040
<v Speaker 1>read is to understand everything that the book has to

1:20:26.160 --> 1:20:29.040
<v Speaker 1>offer you, right, so like, what are all its key points?

1:20:29.120 --> 1:20:32.160
<v Speaker 1>Where it's you know, sailing, it's observations, where it's facts

1:20:32.240 --> 1:20:35.160
<v Speaker 1>that you haven't gotten A level three read, which I

1:20:35.160 --> 1:20:37.400
<v Speaker 1>can say I've probably done for ten books in my life.

1:20:37.880 --> 1:20:41.080
<v Speaker 1>Is when you go through and every concept you don't understand,

1:20:41.120 --> 1:20:43.160
<v Speaker 1>you go down the rabbit hole. They mentioned a book

1:20:43.200 --> 1:20:46.880
<v Speaker 1>that you haven't read, you go read that book, and

1:20:47.320 --> 1:20:49.800
<v Speaker 1>that's a very rare thing to do there. So on

1:20:49.880 --> 1:20:53.280
<v Speaker 1>a book that's this big, the honest truth is you start.

1:20:53.479 --> 1:20:55.759
<v Speaker 1>I start at level one. Now. My level one read

1:20:55.920 --> 1:20:57.720
<v Speaker 1>on the matter of Matter with Things probably took me

1:20:57.760 --> 1:21:01.160
<v Speaker 1>a week because it's so just to go through and

1:21:01.280 --> 1:21:04.600
<v Speaker 1>read the opening paragraphs of each chapter and read the

1:21:04.640 --> 1:21:06.640
<v Speaker 1>conclusions and be like, nope, I didn't get that. I

1:21:06.720 --> 1:21:09.040
<v Speaker 1>have to go back without actually reading the book. It

1:21:09.120 --> 1:21:11.960
<v Speaker 1>probably took me a week. Then Tom Morrigan from KCP

1:21:12.120 --> 1:21:15.240
<v Speaker 1>and I spent I want to say, three months. Tom

1:21:15.320 --> 1:21:18.599
<v Speaker 1>has by the way of fascinating Twitter feed. He's phenomenal. Yeah,

1:21:19.080 --> 1:21:20.800
<v Speaker 1>and he's way out there on this stuff. He's my

1:21:21.000 --> 1:21:24.360
<v Speaker 1>my sirpa on this sort of phenomenology and consciousness end

1:21:24.400 --> 1:21:26.880
<v Speaker 1>of things. But then we we sort of we're going

1:21:26.960 --> 1:21:29.160
<v Speaker 1>through it together, which helped a lot um and we

1:21:29.200 --> 1:21:31.160
<v Speaker 1>would bounce ideas back and forth with each other and

1:21:31.240 --> 1:21:33.600
<v Speaker 1>compare notes with where we were. And I did a

1:21:33.760 --> 1:21:36.200
<v Speaker 1>full level to read that book over about a three

1:21:36.320 --> 1:21:39.479
<v Speaker 1>month window, reading it every day. Give me one more book,

1:21:39.479 --> 1:21:43.800
<v Speaker 1>because we've talked about so many already. Uh, how about this,

1:21:43.880 --> 1:21:46.240
<v Speaker 1>I'll go with a comic book, trans Metropolitan by Warren

1:21:46.320 --> 1:21:49.080
<v Speaker 1>ellis my one of my favorite comic books. Could not

1:21:49.200 --> 1:21:52.639
<v Speaker 1>be more relevant for the modern world right now. About

1:21:52.680 --> 1:21:56.080
<v Speaker 1>a journalist named Spider Jerusalem covering the apocalypse in a

1:21:56.160 --> 1:21:59.360
<v Speaker 1>major city, and it feels like it was written about

1:21:59.479 --> 1:22:05.080
<v Speaker 1>today today. Interesting. Our final two questions, what sort of

1:22:05.120 --> 1:22:07.840
<v Speaker 1>advice would you give to a college grad who thinks

1:22:07.880 --> 1:22:12.839
<v Speaker 1>they want to be a financial futurist? We'll probably inventive

1:22:12.880 --> 1:22:14.599
<v Speaker 1>better title. But to do like the kind of work

1:22:14.640 --> 1:22:16.200
<v Speaker 1>that I'm doing, the biggest advice I have is to

1:22:16.240 --> 1:22:19.720
<v Speaker 1>be curious, right, never allow a good rabbit hole to

1:22:19.840 --> 1:22:25.040
<v Speaker 1>go unexplored. We've had conversations about that phrase has come up.

1:22:25.439 --> 1:22:28.800
<v Speaker 1>How much time do you spend down various rabbit holes.

1:22:28.880 --> 1:22:31.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I mean pretty much any time that I'm

1:22:31.720 --> 1:22:34.080
<v Speaker 1>not doing something else, I'm like if I if I

1:22:34.160 --> 1:22:37.800
<v Speaker 1>have something in front of me and i'm reading the time,

1:22:37.920 --> 1:22:40.519
<v Speaker 1>it's something that is way deeper than it needs to be,

1:22:40.600 --> 1:22:43.280
<v Speaker 1>because I really want to understand it at a core level. Okay,

1:22:43.360 --> 1:22:47.160
<v Speaker 1>so let me fast forward. I actually by the time

1:22:47.240 --> 1:22:49.200
<v Speaker 1>this comes out, this will be old news. But I

1:22:49.280 --> 1:22:52.760
<v Speaker 1>did a blog post about how the FED is causing inflation.

1:22:53.520 --> 1:22:58.360
<v Speaker 1>The FED, by raising rates, is causing the CPI inflation

1:22:58.520 --> 1:23:02.479
<v Speaker 1>prints to be higher because the crazy way BLS measures

1:23:02.560 --> 1:23:05.600
<v Speaker 1>the cost of shelter. And the only way I was

1:23:05.680 --> 1:23:07.840
<v Speaker 1>able to put that together, and I'm bringing this up

1:23:07.840 --> 1:23:11.040
<v Speaker 1>because I know you'll appreciate it is because I lived

1:23:11.200 --> 1:23:14.160
<v Speaker 1>in that rabbit hole during the two thousands. But I

1:23:14.360 --> 1:23:19.960
<v Speaker 1>was arguing BLS is under reporting inflation because of we've

1:23:20.000 --> 1:23:23.000
<v Speaker 1>had that conversation. But that was in the two thousands,

1:23:23.360 --> 1:23:26.360
<v Speaker 1>so the FEED had taken rates down too quickly, too low,

1:23:27.040 --> 1:23:29.960
<v Speaker 1>and that led to a spike in the cost of shelter,

1:23:30.400 --> 1:23:34.759
<v Speaker 1>which the BLS reports the inverse of. Fast forward twenty

1:23:34.840 --> 1:23:39.320
<v Speaker 1>years years now, the FT is raising rates and that

1:23:39.600 --> 1:23:42.360
<v Speaker 1>leads the b L S c P I to over

1:23:42.520 --> 1:23:46.840
<v Speaker 1>report inflation because the way they measure owners equivalent rent

1:23:46.880 --> 1:23:49.840
<v Speaker 1>because for many people a home is an asset, but

1:23:49.920 --> 1:23:51.800
<v Speaker 1>if you're a renter and it's going up, how do

1:23:51.880 --> 1:23:55.000
<v Speaker 1>you measure that? And it's not this grand conspiracy, it's

1:23:55.080 --> 1:23:59.760
<v Speaker 1>just a complex modeling problem, which, as you've described, we

1:24:00.000 --> 1:24:02.759
<v Speaker 1>it wrong. Yeah, and I think that those are endemic.

1:24:02.840 --> 1:24:05.400
<v Speaker 1>They're everywhere. I mean during the game stop run up,

1:24:05.439 --> 1:24:07.080
<v Speaker 1>people were talking about, well we had to make cap

1:24:07.280 --> 1:24:09.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, why did DTC have to have a capital

1:24:09.120 --> 1:24:11.280
<v Speaker 1>call in Citadel? And this must be somebody buying Ken

1:24:11.320 --> 1:24:15.640
<v Speaker 1>Griffin's damn. And it's like, again, they're so easy to

1:24:16.160 --> 1:24:19.000
<v Speaker 1>disprove that, but only if you've already spent a year

1:24:19.080 --> 1:24:22.479
<v Speaker 1>down the rabbit hole of understanding capital requirements at settlement Bureau.

1:24:22.600 --> 1:24:24.960
<v Speaker 1>We all we all talk about our priors, but if

1:24:25.000 --> 1:24:27.479
<v Speaker 1>your priors were down the rabbit hole, then you have

1:24:27.640 --> 1:24:31.519
<v Speaker 1>a frame of reference to understand these complex endemically with

1:24:31.680 --> 1:24:34.200
<v Speaker 1>the with the enormous caveat that everything you knew about

1:24:34.240 --> 1:24:40.759
<v Speaker 1>financial markets now and so first in in the post,

1:24:40.960 --> 1:24:45.680
<v Speaker 1>I cite something I had quoted from from I think

1:24:45.720 --> 1:24:47.920
<v Speaker 1>it was a Cleveland Fed or Atlanta Fed. Look at

1:24:47.920 --> 1:24:51.200
<v Speaker 1>o we are. And then fortunately my my buddy and

1:24:51.320 --> 1:24:54.280
<v Speaker 1>Victus said, hey, you know that the Federal Reserve and

1:24:54.439 --> 1:24:56.920
<v Speaker 1>the maybe it was the Cleveland FED just did a

1:24:57.000 --> 1:24:59.479
<v Speaker 1>piece on this like three days ago. So I was

1:24:59.560 --> 1:25:02.639
<v Speaker 1>able to site like, oh, and here's the latest change

1:25:03.160 --> 1:25:06.360
<v Speaker 1>that they're changing the they're the FED. Everybody is aware

1:25:06.400 --> 1:25:09.120
<v Speaker 1>that this is a problem, that they're changing the way

1:25:09.200 --> 1:25:12.840
<v Speaker 1>they measure this. But this all goes back to we're wrong,

1:25:12.960 --> 1:25:14.840
<v Speaker 1>the models are wrong. We have have to get it right,

1:25:14.880 --> 1:25:17.760
<v Speaker 1>all right. Final question, what is it that you know

1:25:17.880 --> 1:25:21.880
<v Speaker 1>about the world of investing today or the world today

1:25:22.080 --> 1:25:24.519
<v Speaker 1>that you wish you knew twenty five years or so

1:25:24.840 --> 1:25:27.600
<v Speaker 1>ago when you were first starting out. Oh well, I

1:25:27.640 --> 1:25:29.560
<v Speaker 1>mean it's a beating a dead horse here, but that

1:25:29.800 --> 1:25:32.840
<v Speaker 1>I was wrong and whatever the question is, the answer

1:25:32.960 --> 1:25:36.080
<v Speaker 1>is I was wrong, right that that yeah, that that

1:25:36.680 --> 1:25:39.840
<v Speaker 1>fundamental shift in my perception, which really only happened in

1:25:39.840 --> 1:25:41.800
<v Speaker 1>the last three or four years. The pandemic helped a

1:25:41.880 --> 1:25:46.760
<v Speaker 1>lot to recognize the inherent fallibility of human experience and

1:25:46.880 --> 1:25:51.240
<v Speaker 1>approach every conversation with the humility that that implies. If

1:25:51.280 --> 1:25:53.519
<v Speaker 1>I could go back and beat that into my year

1:25:53.560 --> 1:25:56.360
<v Speaker 1>old self I would do in a heartbeat. Fantastic, Dave,

1:25:56.439 --> 1:25:59.120
<v Speaker 1>Thank you being so generous with your time. We have

1:25:59.360 --> 1:26:03.639
<v Speaker 1>been speaking with Dave Noddig, financial futurists for Vitify. If

1:26:03.760 --> 1:26:06.519
<v Speaker 1>you enjoy this conversation, well, be sure and check out

1:26:06.640 --> 1:26:10.559
<v Speaker 1>any of the previous four hundred and forty we've done

1:26:10.640 --> 1:26:14.120
<v Speaker 1>over the past eight years. You can find those at iTunes,

1:26:14.120 --> 1:26:18.880
<v Speaker 1>Spotify and now YouTube, or wherever you feed your podcast fix.

1:26:19.280 --> 1:26:22.120
<v Speaker 1>We love your comments, feedback in suggestions right to us

1:26:22.240 --> 1:26:25.880
<v Speaker 1>at m IB podcast at Bloomberg dot net. Follow me

1:26:25.960 --> 1:26:28.200
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at rid Halts. You can sign up from

1:26:28.240 --> 1:26:31.800
<v Speaker 1>my daily reading list at dhults dot com. I would

1:26:31.840 --> 1:26:33.920
<v Speaker 1>be remiss if I did not thank the crack team

1:26:33.920 --> 1:26:37.839
<v Speaker 1>who helps put these conversations together each week. Sarah Livesey

1:26:38.120 --> 1:26:41.000
<v Speaker 1>is my audio engineer. A Tick of val Bron is

1:26:41.080 --> 1:26:44.920
<v Speaker 1>my project manager. Paris Wold is our producer. Sean Russo

1:26:45.320 --> 1:26:48.800
<v Speaker 1>is my head of research. I'm Barry Rid Halts. You've

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<v Speaker 1>been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.