1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information. Wouldn't 2 00:00:05,160 --> 00:00:08,000 Speaker 1: you agree? A five dollars? 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 2: This is a radle? 4 00:00:10,039 --> 00:00:11,479 Speaker 1: How for they tackled kite. 5 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 2: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. 6 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 1: Humans need fantasy to be human? My goodness, I speak. 7 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:31,520 Speaker 3: I suppose the best, relentless, refusing to give up. 8 00:00:32,040 --> 00:00:37,520 Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, Bayless? What's up, everybody? 9 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 2: And welcome to the Fantasy Flex Way too early season 10 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 2: long props podcast, presented by Prize Picks. I'm your host, 11 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 2: Chris Rayvaughn, and I am joined by Sean Kerner Samantha 12 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 2: Pravidi of the Action Network. We're gonna give you nine 13 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 2: props way too early, I know. But Samantha, what's going on? 14 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,800 Speaker 2: How's your how's your post super Bowl wife? 15 00:01:01,840 --> 00:01:02,240 Speaker 1: Treat you? 16 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 4: It's been pretty relaxing, though of course I already missed football. 17 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 4: We're getting sort of our fixed with the combine. But 18 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 4: I am enjoying a little bit of a break right now. 19 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 4: I'm in Utah. 20 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 1: Nice, Utah. What's going on? Utah? 21 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,399 Speaker 4: Well, because I don't do enough skiing, I went on 22 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 4: a summation. So it's actually super warm here though it's 23 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 4: like slushy, so it's not as fun but still enjoyable. 24 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 2: Thank Sean, what's going on man? I'm guessing you're you're 25 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 2: not skiing as well, so what are you doing? 26 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 3: No, I'm prepping for March Madness, so you know, take 27 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 3: a quick break to discuss some NFL is a welcome 28 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:43,680 Speaker 3: thing for me. And yeah, it's it's never too early 29 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:46,400 Speaker 3: to take advantage of these season long props like this 30 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 3: is one of my favorite things to bet on the 31 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 3: off season. 32 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: So I'm ready for this. 33 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 2: All right, let's uh, let's get into it because it 34 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 2: sounds like you want to you want. 35 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:55,559 Speaker 1: To bang the table for somebody, Sean. 36 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: So I'm going to kick it right to you gave 37 00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 2: with your first season long for. 38 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: Twenty twenty two. He's got fire trucks now, oh my god. Hey, 39 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 1: we got the sound effects all natural this year. 40 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 2: The podcast, we're not the producers have to do nothing, 41 00:02:11,360 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: no add sound effects, no, just like we're going straight 42 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:14,679 Speaker 2: off background to it. 43 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: So you know. 44 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, So the first prop I like is Jonathan Taylor over. Okay, 45 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 3: this is insane, right should I should? I just go 46 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:22,679 Speaker 3: tell them to knock it off. 47 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: I think you're good man, Just tell us about it. 48 00:02:26,960 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: Just tell us why we should bang the over on 49 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:28,959 Speaker 1: Jonathan two. 50 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 3: I love the Johnathan Taylor over fourteen one hundred rushing yards. 51 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 3: You know, the days of worrying about how Naim Hines 52 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 3: or Roland Mack will eat into Jonathan Taylor's workoud are over. 53 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:43,919 Speaker 3: You know that was the case weeks one through four 54 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 3: last season. You know, Taylor only saw fifty five percent 55 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,079 Speaker 3: of the Cults Russia temps. But you know once week ahead, 56 00:02:50,120 --> 00:02:53,360 Speaker 3: that's when we saw Jonathan Taylor explode. And you know, 57 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 3: he averaged seventy five percent of the Cults Russia temp 58 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 3: from Week eight on and he averaged one hundred and 59 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,959 Speaker 3: twenty three yards a game from that point on. So 60 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 3: I think we're going to see more of that in 61 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 3: twenty twenty two. You know, he's going to be turning 62 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:10,079 Speaker 3: twenty three next season. He's entering his prime playing behind 63 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 3: still solid of offensive line. You know, Eric Fisher Mark 64 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:15,639 Speaker 3: Lewinski are free agents, but hopefully they'll be able to 65 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 3: bring him back. So just love what's setting up for 66 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,799 Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor this season. And you know he has mentioned 67 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:23,720 Speaker 3: he's never missed a practice in high school, college or 68 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 3: the NFL. So He's pretty durable. So right now I'm 69 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 3: docking him two games. I do that for every running back, 70 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 3: and I'm still projecting him for fifteen one hundred and 71 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 3: fifty rushing yards, So you know, given his durability, Like 72 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 3: you know, I think it could go over that. To 73 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 3: love Jonathan Taylor over fourteen hundred rushing yards next season. 74 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: That's you know. 75 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm to be honest, not a fan of 76 00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 2: taken over is at this time of the year, but 77 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 2: I will say this is about Taylor. His numbers fourteen hundred, 78 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 2: that would have been about four games worth of rushing. 79 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 2: You could adapt him for almost and he would have 80 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 2: still gotten over. So if there's anybody that you get 81 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 2: taken over with here, I think Taylor would be the guy. 82 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: Samantha, what about you? Where are you going with your 83 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: first prop? 84 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:05,040 Speaker 2: Sure? 85 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, So my first prop that I really like is 86 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 4: Matthew Stafford under forty seven hundred passing yards. So he 87 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 4: did pass for almost forty nine hundred yards this year, 88 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 4: which was his best passing year since twenty twelve. 89 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 1: Grented. 90 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 4: It is tough to do a lot of efficient passing 91 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,839 Speaker 4: on the Lions, but I think that we could definitely 92 00:04:22,839 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 4: see a little bit of a post Super Bowl slump 93 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,839 Speaker 4: for a number of reasons. First, he just turned thirty 94 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 4: four years old. It's not ancient in terms of signal callers, 95 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 4: but it certainly isn't young. Second, the Rams have a 96 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 4: ton of free agent liabilities to deal with this offseason. 97 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,680 Speaker 4: That that includes a whole bunch of people Ed Rusher, 98 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 4: Von Miller, running back Sony Michelle, Odell Beckham, a bunch 99 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 4: of their offensive linemen, their center. I think it'll be 100 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,480 Speaker 4: difficult for them to resign them With the fifth lowest 101 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,600 Speaker 4: cap space right now at approximately thirteen million over the. 102 00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: Cap, tossed on the fact that they have zero. 103 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 4: First or second round picks, I just think it's unlikely 104 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 4: that they actually improve year over year, which is why 105 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 4: I kind of like the Stafford under some of. 106 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 1: That Super Bowl let down too. You know, see what 107 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: happens there. 108 00:05:07,080 --> 00:05:08,799 Speaker 2: But yeah, I think you know he's gonna have Cup, 109 00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,239 Speaker 2: but you know, the receivers might look a little different 110 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 2: as well, so should be interesting. For my first one, 111 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Stefan Diggs under twelve one hundred 112 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 2: and fifty and a half receiving yards. Last year, he 113 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 2: only had twelve twenty five, despite playing in all seventeen games. 114 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 2: So I think that's a good sign for betteranness under, 115 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,159 Speaker 2: especially when you consider Diggs is now. 116 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 1: Entering his age twenty nine season. 117 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 2: Usually wide receivers they peak around age twenty seven, twenty six, 118 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 2: twenty seven, maybe twenty eight, So either way you look 119 00:05:39,640 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 2: at it, dig should be coming out of his prime here. 120 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 2: He's averaged about twelve yards per catch with the Bills, 121 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:47,479 Speaker 2: so that's another thing. You know, he could see high volume, 122 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 2: and that doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to clear 123 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 2: this number again. In fact, he's only eclipsed at once. 124 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:57,880 Speaker 2: You know, that was the year before this. That's despite 125 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 2: missing only ten games in seven pro seasons, So I 126 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 2: know there is an extra game now, but he still 127 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 2: wouldn't have really hit this in any other year except 128 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 2: that first Bill's year. 129 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: So I'm going to bet the under here. 130 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 2: And I think that's kind of how you know, you 131 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:11,960 Speaker 2: have to look at a lot of these props this 132 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 2: time of year. It's just you're kind of looking at 133 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 2: games played and saying, all right, if a guy played 134 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 2: all of his games and he still didn't hit it, 135 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,080 Speaker 2: there's probably a good chance he's gonna not play his 136 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:22,400 Speaker 2: full out motive games next year. 137 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: That's just how football goes. 138 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 2: So love the under twelve one hundred and fifty and 139 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 2: a half for digs sewn back to you. Let's go 140 00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 2: with your second where you go. 141 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 3: You've made a good point saying that we typically want 142 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 3: to attack unders for seas long props. But all the 143 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 3: guys that are up right now are pretty elite. So 144 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 3: I'm going to attack another over here. I'm going to 145 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 3: go Cee Lamb over twelve hundred and a half receiving yards. 146 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 3: You know, I'm expecting a monster season from Ceedee Lamb. 147 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 3: He's entering his third season, which is usually when we 148 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 3: see wide receivers enter their prime. He's only going to 149 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 3: be twenty three years old, so he's pretty young heading 150 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,599 Speaker 3: in his third season, and the Cowboys likely to be 151 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:04,359 Speaker 3: losing you know, Michael Gallup, possibly Dalton Schultz to free agency, 152 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 3: and there's even rumors that they might cut Amari Cooper, 153 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 3: so you know, if that happens, Seed Lamb, he's more 154 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 3: than capable of being a number one wide receiver, but 155 00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 3: this season might be his first chance to actually prove that. 156 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 3: So plus it, it also helps that Kellamore staying as 157 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:22,480 Speaker 3: offensive corner. I think he's great for this offense in 158 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,480 Speaker 3: Ceedee Lamb particularly, so you know, I'm projecting Ceedee lam 159 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 3: right around thirteen hundred yards right now. But like I said, 160 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 3: he's he's you know, only going to go up. He's 161 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 3: entering his prime. And if Mark Cooper gets cut, you 162 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 3: know his the prop's only going to go up. 163 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 1: So I love buy and low on seed Lamb right now. Yeah, 164 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 1: I mean you would think year three would. 165 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 2: Be the breakout. I mean year two was kind of 166 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 2: the breakout. He went from nine hundred and thirty five 167 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 2: yards to eleven oh two. But I thought they left 168 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 2: a lot of meat on the bone with Ceede Lamb 169 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 2: just in terms of his usage. I mean, there were 170 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 2: games where he wasn't playing like a full complement of snaps. 171 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 2: There were games where he just wasn't treated even like 172 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 2: a top two receiver on that that offense. 173 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 1: So it was it was an odd year. 174 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 2: But the fact that he still got to eleven hundred 175 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 2: obviously it is somewhat of projecting. I'm guessing you're projecting 176 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 2: him receivers in general for like one miss game, right yeah, 177 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 2: right around one miss game. Yeah, Okay, so yeah, the 178 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 2: year three breakout probably coming here for Ceedee Lamb Samanta. 179 00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:21,160 Speaker 1: Where are you going with prop number two? 180 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm with you guys in terms of going with 181 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 4: a lot of unders, But I did like one over, 182 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 4: which is Doc Prescott over forty six hundred and a 183 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 4: half passing yards. He would have only hit this over 184 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 4: once in his career, back in twenty nineteen, but he 185 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 4: was on track to do it last season had he 186 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 4: played all seventeen games. Now, yes, that's a lot asking 187 00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 4: a lot of a quarterback, but this is while he 188 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,320 Speaker 4: was dealing with a calf and shoulder injury which required 189 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 4: surgery this offseason. He should be healthy for the Cowboys 190 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:52,040 Speaker 4: off season program after the surgery and everything. And over 191 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 4: the last three seasons he's averaged three hundred and three 192 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 4: passing yards per game. That puts his seventeen game projection 193 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 4: at well over five thousand yards, which means he could 194 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,959 Speaker 4: certainly miss a game and still be comfortably within. 195 00:09:03,720 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: The over here. 196 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 4: Basically, I see this as a bet on his health, 197 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,319 Speaker 4: especially with a lot of his weapons locked up, but 198 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 4: certainly makes me a little bit nervous if Maury Cooper 199 00:09:13,880 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 4: doesn't stay on the team. 200 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 2: I mean Dak, I mean even these last two years, 201 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 2: if you combine that was it like five games he 202 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 2: had in twenty twenty. I mean, he's he's definitely passing 203 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 2: for a lot of yards. So yeah, I think it 204 00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 2: just comes down the house. I think he should surpass 205 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:32,560 Speaker 2: this fairly easily if he's healthy for you know, the 206 00:09:32,600 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: full season. For my second pick here on under Roulette, 207 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 2: which is essentially what I'm playing, I'm gonna go at 208 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:43,880 Speaker 2: Najie Harris under eleven hundred and fifty and a half 209 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:47,160 Speaker 2: rushing yards. So he played all seventeen games last season 210 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 2: and he still got only twelve hundred. So again, like 211 00:09:52,440 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 2: Sean mentioned, the median miss games for running back is 212 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:57,560 Speaker 2: going to be between two and three. Obviously we don't 213 00:09:57,559 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 2: have a big enough stample for the seventeen game year, 214 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 2: but it's usually around two two to three in the 215 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 2: sixteen game years, so I would think it would be 216 00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 2: about the same. 217 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: So that's number one. 218 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 2: Number two is he led the NFL a touch with 219 00:10:09,840 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 2: three hundred and eighty one during the regular season, so 220 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 2: I think there is a good chance that he misses, 221 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 2: you know, perhaps even more than just you know, one 222 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 2: or two or three games, and then he played eighty 223 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,800 Speaker 2: four percent of the snaps get eighty six percent of 224 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 2: the touches for the Steers a year ago. So you 225 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,920 Speaker 2: combine that kind of workload like that's just hard to 226 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 2: repeat year over year. Whether it's because of injury, whether 227 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 2: it's because you know, the team decides that he's so 228 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:34,440 Speaker 2: important that maybe you knock it down a little. There's 229 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:36,280 Speaker 2: a lot of different ways that I think he could 230 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 2: fall short of kind of hitting this twelve hundred rushing 231 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:41,480 Speaker 2: yards and still have a pretty decent season in a 232 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 2: year two. But yeah, I'm going under eleven hundred and 233 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:49,320 Speaker 2: fifty and a half rushing yards for Naji. All right, 234 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 2: Third and final prop for you, Sean. 235 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 3: I'm going Deebo Samuel under twelve hundred and fifty and 236 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 3: a half receiving yards. 237 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: All the guys could go under, I know, right, Yeah, 238 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: you took the dick, so I have to keep with 239 00:11:02,960 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 1: an underund Deebo Samuel. 240 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 3: And you know, there's no denying that Deebo's probably the 241 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 3: best player in the NFL right now, But that doesn't 242 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 3: mean we can't take advantage of his under So last season, 243 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,559 Speaker 3: you know, the first eight games he averaged one hundred 244 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 3: and ten receiving yards a game. Then in Week nine, 245 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,559 Speaker 3: Kyle Shanahan started giving Debot you know, five to eight 246 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 3: rusher attempts per game, and he averaged fifty nine receiving 247 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 3: yards a game over the final twelve games. And another 248 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 3: point I wanted to make about, you know, his monster 249 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 3: first half of the season. That was when Brandon Ayuk 250 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,120 Speaker 3: was in the doghouse, was struggling, you know, and then 251 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 3: the second half Ike stepped up. I think Ayuk will 252 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:36,560 Speaker 3: be a lot better this season, more consistent. So I 253 00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 3: think that's going to impact Debo as well. But also, 254 00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 3: you know, I think with Trey Lance likely going to 255 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 3: be the forty niners starting quarterback next season, you know, 256 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:47,439 Speaker 3: they're going to be a much more run heavy team. 257 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,719 Speaker 3: In his two starts last season, Deebo only averaged six 258 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 3: yards per game, even more reason to just give Debo 259 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 3: direct handoffs, honestly. So you know, I'm still ranking Deebo 260 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 3: in my top four in fantasy, but that's based off 261 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 3: his rushing production, but his receiving art you know, projection 262 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 3: for me right now is closer to eleven hundred receiving yards. 263 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 3: So I think that we have a bit of a 264 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 3: cushion here with twelve fifty. And again you know he's 265 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 3: he's a dual threat player now, so I think we 266 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 3: can dock him on his receiving production. 267 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 2: And here's a guy who I mean, as good as 268 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 2: he is, the way he plays, I think also because 269 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 2: again I think at this time of year, you have 270 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 2: to think about injuries and you have to think about 271 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,680 Speaker 2: games play. The way he plays may not be sustainable, 272 00:12:31,040 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 2: you know, rushing rusher at or receiver just because he's 273 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 2: like hitting people and getting so many hours after the catch. 274 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: He just he plays too much like a. 275 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: Running back for a wide receiver in terms of like 276 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 2: projecting like him to play a full year year over year. 277 00:12:43,320 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 2: So like, you know, I know, Samantha, I know you 278 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:47,320 Speaker 2: like this one too. I actually like it too. I 279 00:12:47,360 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 2: just have principles that will not on this podcast debo 280 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 2: and gave Davis no slander for me on this podcast. 281 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,480 Speaker 1: But no, I totally agree. I think it's the right play. 282 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: I think. I think that's the thing. 283 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:03,079 Speaker 2: If you're you know, playing on making wagers or are 284 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 2: betting on these season one props at this time of year, 285 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 2: you know most of the guys that are posted are 286 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 2: going to be the elite guys because we don't know, 287 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 2: you know, what's going to happen with a lot of 288 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 2: these you know, number two receivers and it kind of 289 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 2: you know, maybe one B running backs or backfields and 290 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:19,880 Speaker 2: things like that. So you're gonna get a lot of 291 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:24,319 Speaker 2: studs and it's harder psychologically maybe to take the under 292 00:13:24,400 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 2: because they're such good players. But you just have to 293 00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 2: look back at Okay, what is the real expectation when 294 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 2: it comes to like games played? 295 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: What could go wrong? And there's a lot. 296 00:13:32,600 --> 00:13:35,280 Speaker 2: So yeah, I think, you know, just off Debo having 297 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,280 Speaker 2: the same role and playing all these games could still. 298 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 1: Go well under this. Samantha, what about your third prop? Sure? 299 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:44,760 Speaker 4: So my final one is going to be Joe Mixing 300 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 4: under one and twenty five and a half rushing yards. Honestly, 301 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 4: I like a lot of these rushing unders, except the 302 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 4: Jonathan Taylor one, because a lot can happen. We talked 303 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 4: about this over the course of the season, especially to 304 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:58,760 Speaker 4: running backs. It does feel a little bit sacrilegious of 305 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,120 Speaker 4: me to go against my do mix In after his 306 00:14:01,360 --> 00:14:05,320 Speaker 4: banner season, his third one thousand rushing yard season of 307 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 4: his career, would have hit this over this year, but 308 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:11,040 Speaker 4: it was also a season where he was highly efficient 309 00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 4: in the passing game three hundred and fourteen receiving yards, 310 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 4: a trend that I also think could continue. His per 311 00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:19,600 Speaker 4: game rushing yard average of a seventy five point seven 312 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 4: means that he has to be healthy for at least 313 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 4: fifteen games this year, which is certainly possible, but that 314 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:27,320 Speaker 4: doesn't leave a lot of margin, especially for a player 315 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:30,640 Speaker 4: who has not been not done a complete season his 316 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 4: entire career and just played six games in twenty twenty. 317 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 4: In terms of competition, Smaje p Ryan becomes a free 318 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 4: agent this offseason, but even if they don't resign him, 319 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 4: they have Chris Evans until twenty twenty five, sadly not 320 00:14:42,840 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 4: Captain America, and then a toss on the fact that 321 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 4: the offensive line continues to be a pain point. There 322 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 4: are a lot of paths for this one to go under. 323 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: I don't think. 324 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 2: I don't think anybody Cincinnati related is happy with Samaji 325 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 2: p Roun except maybe us who better like that samajp 326 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 2: ran under the Super Bowl was mixing on THEO the 327 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:02,359 Speaker 2: last two plays. 328 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: Like ruined the t Higgins MVP prop though. 329 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, so yeah, we're not some majp Ryan 330 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,360 Speaker 2: fans on this show, but you're not. That being said, 331 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 2: I totally agree, I think. I mean, Joe Mixing just 332 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 2: seems like a guy just waiting to play like eight 333 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,000 Speaker 2: games this year, like something. 334 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 1: You know what I mean, Like he's kind of hung 335 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:21,520 Speaker 1: in there these last couple of years. 336 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 2: He's always got a pretty high carry count, you know, 337 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 2: I just you just can't trust these backs. I mean, 338 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 2: look at you know, we were talking about coming into 339 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 2: last year, right, Jarren Henry he never gets hurt. The 340 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:32,840 Speaker 2: year before, Christop McCaffrey, he never gets hurt. And it's 341 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 2: like all these guys got hurt, you know. So I 342 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 2: totally agree. I think at this time of the year, 343 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 2: this time, you know, there's only one way to go 344 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:42,920 Speaker 2: with the with the these running backs, and it's under. 345 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 2: And that brings me to my third and final prop, 346 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,360 Speaker 2: and that's Nick Chubb under thirteen fifty and a half 347 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 2: rushing yards. 348 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: And we were here last year we did the same thing. 349 00:15:52,640 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 2: I think I took the Chubb under and Sean was 350 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 2: making fun of me because I think my yards per 351 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:58,920 Speaker 2: carry maybe he was still a little too low, but 352 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 2: he averaged five point five yards of carry and still 353 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 2: went under. I forget exactly what his number was last year, 354 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 2: but he's actually went under it. I know, by at 355 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 2: least like a fifty to one hundred yards. It's not more. 356 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 2: And that's because miss game. So he's already hit the 357 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: over on his number once in four years. He's in 358 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,640 Speaker 2: his fifty year. He's aged twenty seven now, and he 359 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 2: has been carrying a pretty huge workload for the last 360 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 2: three years, even with you know, guy spelling him in 361 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: Kareem Hunt. But he's missed three and a half games 362 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 2: per season over the last two So despite five point 363 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 2: six and five point five yards per carry, I don't 364 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 2: even know if that's sustainable, you know, going forward. I 365 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 2: mean he was at five point two and five point 366 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 2: zho his first couple of years. Age twenty seven, you 367 00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 2: start to see a little bit of a decline from 368 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 2: running back, sometimes a major one. So I think you 369 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 2: have the outlier efficiency and then you still have to 370 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 2: play a lot of games for Chubb for him to 371 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 2: go over this massive number here. So give me the 372 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 2: under here on Nick Chubb, even though it does not 373 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 2: feel good. I'm thirteen to fifty and a half and 374 00:16:59,080 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 2: that is gonna wrap it up. Nine props for you 375 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 2: way too early March. Let me just recap them for 376 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 2: you guys out there. Sean's gone with Jonathan Taylor over 377 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,920 Speaker 2: fourteen hundred and a half rushing yards, Ceede Lamb over 378 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 2: twelve hundred and a half for seving yards, and Deebo 379 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 2: Samuel under below one hundred and fifty and a half 380 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 2: for seving yards. Samantha's going with Matthew Stafford under forty 381 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 2: seven hundred and a half passing yards, Dak Prescott over 382 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 2: forty six hundred and a half passing yards, and Joe 383 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 2: Mixon under twenty five and a half rushing yards. I'm 384 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 2: going with Stefan Diggs under twelve fifty and a half 385 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 2: for seving yards, Najie Harris under eleven fifty and a 386 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 2: half rushing and Nick Chubb under thirteen fifty and a 387 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 2: half rushing yards. That's gonna do it for the Fantasy 388 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:52,000 Speaker 2: Flex Way too early Season Long Props podcast for twenty 389 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:56,959 Speaker 2: twenty two, presented by Prize Picks. You can find Samantha 390 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 2: on Twitter at Samantha NFL. You can find Sean at 391 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 2: the Underscore Oddsmaker, and you can find me at Chris Raybon. 392 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 2: Also be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for 393 00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 2: all of our offseason Fantasy NFL embedding content, and Fantasy 394 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,120 Speaker 2: Labs dot com once the season kicks in the gear 395 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 2: for our DFS content. Until next time, Get this money