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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right, here we go,

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Speaker 2: we're throwing in so spect, we're sitting.

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Speaker 1: It's a cash to stop.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

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Speaker 3: they go to winning.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pass and we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined

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Speaker 3: as always by the one, the only, Brandon Anderson for

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Speaker 3: this week's best Best episode. Now, there's been tons of football,

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Speaker 3: but right now we are going to focus on the

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Speaker 3: Saturday slate, the Sunday slate, and a little bit of

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Speaker 3: Monday if we get there. But it's week seventeen, so

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Speaker 3: we're looking towards the weekend here. Now, before we get

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Speaker 3: into this, Brandon, what's up?

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Speaker 2: How are you? How's life? Mary? Chris?

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Speaker 1: You know, we got NFL on Christmas, NBA on Christmas,

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Speaker 1: Grace Saty games on both of those. NFL wasn't the best.

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Speaker 1: We got to get Beyonce concert out of it, and

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Speaker 1: you know, can't complain about a couple of good games

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Speaker 1: we got Thursday night as we tape this. We're watching

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Speaker 1: football nearly every day. How bad can life be?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, only day not Tuesday, so you know, Mac Bowl

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Speaker 3: games or whatever it is outside that window. We are

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Speaker 3: full NFL ahead. But let's just focus now on some

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Speaker 3: of these Saturday I'm sorry, the Christmas games that were

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Speaker 3: on Wednesday. So Casey Pittsburgh, Houston Baltimore, and then we'll

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Speaker 3: get into a few topics here. So let's start with

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Speaker 3: Casey Pittsburgh. I'll let you go first. Just what's your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on the game, thoughts on the result and anything

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Speaker 3: in the future kind of for both teams.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I had to rock the Chiefs shirt today, got

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Speaker 1: it new for Christmas, just in time for the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: to lock up the one seed. We're not going to

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Speaker 1: see a lot of these guys again for a while now.

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Speaker 1: I think that Kansas City now has the dream path

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Speaker 1: as they hoped for the THEFC Championship. They're the one seed,

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Speaker 1: they get the buy The best way to not lose

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs is to not play in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes has the ankle. Chris Jones didn't even to

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Speaker 1: play here. They got five sacks anyway, even without him.

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Speaker 1: He's going to be arresting. I think Mahomes will probably

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Speaker 1: be arresting. They're just getting ready now, and frankly, we

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Speaker 1: talk about peaking at the right time. This is the

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Speaker 1: best four game stretch of the chief season so far.

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Speaker 1: Like they are hitting all the cylinders right now. The

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Speaker 1: offense is getting healthy. They got Joe Tooney moving from

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Speaker 1: guard over to left tackle. They just played three games

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Speaker 1: in eleven days against the Browns and the Steelers and

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Speaker 1: the Texans. Great pass rushes. All three with Mahomes on

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Speaker 1: a bad ankle. They had zero turnovers in one sack.

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Speaker 1: This is the Chiefs in December. This is what we

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Speaker 1: knew we were heading to. I thought they really attacked

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh well, just hitting quick passes to the outside against

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Speaker 1: the Corners that just weren't healthy and weren't ready to

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Speaker 1: do the job. Not really that close to the game,

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Speaker 1: closer turned out than the other one. Pittsburgh probably stuck

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Speaker 1: into the five seed now. So in all likelihood, Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are going to be off for about a month, resting

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Speaker 1: a little bit, and then they're gonna play either Houston

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Speaker 1: or Pittsburgh. In all likelihood, the two teams they just

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Speaker 1: beat in the last week in that first playoff game,

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Speaker 1: and then here we are again for the everieth time

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Speaker 1: in his career, Patrick Mahomes in the FC Championship Gamey

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Speaker 1: had again.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the only takeaway from both games yesterday

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Speaker 3: were the better teams won both games. The more solid

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Speaker 3: teams won both games. I even said on the Sunday

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Speaker 3: Night Football Recap Pod, I think Casey's offense is a

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Speaker 3: little underrated at this point, Like they have more options

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Speaker 3: than they have in previous years, and you know, even

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Speaker 3: without Rashie Rice, I think they've done their job to

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Speaker 3: kind of fill those holes. And their defense second half,

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Speaker 3: especially in absolute stranglehold every other game. It's just every game.

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Speaker 3: It feels like last two seasons they are twenty seven

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Speaker 3: to ten to the under in the second half, under

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Speaker 3: by almost five points per game, and I think you

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Speaker 3: see it every single game, which is they put a

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Speaker 3: strangle hold on the game. Teams have a very difficult

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Speaker 3: time putting up points in the second half against them.

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Speaker 2: So I think.

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Speaker 3: Casey's fine, We'll see them in three weeks to a month.

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Speaker 3: Aside from that, I think Pittsburgh is probably the more

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Speaker 3: interesting thing here. So lost three straight games now of

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Speaker 3: ten plus points, so first time they've done that since

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Speaker 3: nineteen eighty eight, and.

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Speaker 2: I thought this was interesting.

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Speaker 3: So I looked this up November on teams to lose

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Speaker 3: three straight by ten plus to in the end of

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Speaker 3: the season, right, so the end of the year with

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Speaker 3: a winning record, none of them made the conference championship game.

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Speaker 3: So this type of stretch that Pittsburgh is having do,

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Speaker 3: I think there's some potential value there. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: talk about that a little bit because they are forty

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Speaker 3: fifty to one to win it all because of this,

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Speaker 3: but history does not look great on their side. So

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Speaker 3: let's go to Baltimore and Houston quickly. Anything you saw

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Speaker 3: there other than kind of the same game as the first.

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Speaker 1: One, Yeah, I saw the Beyonce half, TIMS show, spectacular

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl show. Basically as far as the game, not

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Speaker 1: a lot.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 1: Texicans scored two points. Obviously. The big swing is they

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Speaker 1: get the safety, they get the ball back, they drive

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Speaker 1: down with the help of pretty questionable DPI, but they

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Speaker 1: get inside the five, go for and fourth down. I

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Speaker 1: like that, but you get stopped. That's it. They don't

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Speaker 1: score again the rest of the game. They only get

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Speaker 1: those two points. First time the Super Bowl era. We

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Speaker 1: got a thirty one to two score. So not quite

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Speaker 1: a score GAMI because we got some old school games

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Speaker 1: in here. But yeah, just dominant performance we're gonna get.

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Speaker 1: I think to the MVP conversation shortly, I thought the

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Speaker 1: MVP this game, much as I've thought off in the season,

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Speaker 1: was not Lamar Jackson. I thought it was Derrick Henry.

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Speaker 1: Twenty seven carries, one hundred and forty seven yards early

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Speaker 1: in the game, just gashing Houston. This is the number

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Speaker 1: one defense by DVA coming to the game, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty seven yards. He had a seventy four percent

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Speaker 1: success rate from next Gen stats. That is the best

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Speaker 1: they have ever tracked for a runner with at least

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Speaker 1: twenty five carries. That's from their stats from twenty sixteen forward.

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Speaker 1: That is a volume just getting downhill on Almost all

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Speaker 1: of it is between the tackles. That's just you can't

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Speaker 1: stop us, Houston. We're coming to right at you. Houston

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Speaker 1: was missing both safeties in this game, and obviously that

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Speaker 1: matters up the middle. Derrick Henry just set the tone early.

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Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson did the thing late and got everyone talking.

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Speaker 1: But this is pretty ugly for Houston. It's fifty nine

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Speaker 1: percent success rate for Baltimore on the game Houston thirty

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Speaker 1: two percent success rate, less than one out of three

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Speaker 1: under twenty percent success rate on the ground for them.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you're more concerned here about what

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Speaker 1: your offense couldn't do or what your defense couldn't do.

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Speaker 1: It's all pretty bad. So I guess my question to

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Speaker 1: you is you just gave the bad news on Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: The way things look with them. Houston a team that

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Speaker 1: you and I have been both kind of fading throughout

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Speaker 1: the season. This is not a great look for them.

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Speaker 1: They didn't even look like a playoff team. But they're

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Speaker 1: already locked into the four seed here and they're gonna

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Speaker 1: probably play another game like this coming up pretty soon.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, my notes were more to it's Houston than they

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Speaker 3: were towards Baltimore. I'm not sure I learned too much

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Speaker 3: about Baltimore in this one. I think their defense look better,

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Speaker 3: which is a positive to them, But from a Texans

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Speaker 3: point of view, Joe Mixon's inconsistencies so last seven games,

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Speaker 3: his yards per carry has just been up and down.

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Speaker 3: It's two I'm gonna go in order here, two point nine,

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Speaker 3: four point one, one point nine, five point one, one

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Speaker 3: point six, five point five, one point eight. As you

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Speaker 3: can see, it's just an absolute roller coaster, and I

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Speaker 3: think what they need on offense, especially when now you

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Speaker 3: definitely don't have both Nico and Tank in the lineup,

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Speaker 3: is you need some run help to kind of open

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Speaker 3: up the passing game, and that just hasn't been there

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Speaker 3: every single week. I also kind of say this, so

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Speaker 3: the Texans have faced ten teams this year, sixty six

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Speaker 3: percent win percentage are higher. They're three and seven in

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Speaker 3: those games they've beaten I'm sorry, that's not just this year,

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Speaker 3: that's just for CJ.

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Speaker 2: Stroud. He's beaten Pickett, Caleb.

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Speaker 3: Williams, and Josh Allen in those three wins. But I

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Speaker 3: think the biggest issue is in the last six games

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Speaker 3: and those opponents, their defense allowed thirty one, twenty seven,

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Speaker 3: twenty six, twenty four, twenty and thirty four. That is

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Speaker 3: just a lot of points that the number one DVOA

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Speaker 3: defense this year hasn't been great event against great offenses

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Speaker 3: and good teams. So I think that's the issue for

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Speaker 3: Houston and then Baltimore. I'm honestly just looking ahead I

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Speaker 3: was looking towards the playoffs. I found this interesting because

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Speaker 3: they're probably gonna face and you'd probably know this better

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Speaker 3: than I, but I think they're gonna face the Chargers

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Speaker 3: or Broncos. It looks like at this point Definel right team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, the AFC A playoff. Pictuer just set the stage.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna get to that in a second. Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: locked at one, Houston is locked at four. Buffalo is

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Speaker 1: effectively locked at two unless they lose out and Baltimore

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Speaker 1: wins out. So that's not gonna happen. So we got

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Speaker 1: Chiefs one, Bills two, Ravens three. As long as they

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Speaker 1: beat the Browns next week with Dorian Thompson and Robinson,

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Speaker 1: we'll be coming back to that. That's a win. So Chiefs, Bills, Ravens,

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Speaker 1: Texans look like Steelers at five and then for now, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Chargers and Broncos kind of jostling for six or seven.

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Speaker 1: So Houston would be probably playing Pittsburgh could still be

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Speaker 1: one of those teams, Chargers or Broncos, depending on how

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Speaker 1: things shake out. Pittsburgh still got to play the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: so they could catch another l and they might just

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Speaker 1: kind of pack it into So it's one of those

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Speaker 1: three for Houston. Baltimore should be playing likely one of

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Speaker 1: those three, probably one of the AFC West teams.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think the issue with the AFC West

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Speaker 3: teams is they're both really good defensively, and I found

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Speaker 3: this interesting. So Lamar in his career twelve and three

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Speaker 3: straight up versus defenses averaging under twenty points per game.

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Speaker 2: That's the good part.

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Speaker 3: The bad part is in the playoffs, the two best

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Speaker 3: defensive teams he's faced scored twenty two total points in

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Speaker 3: those games, and Ozer win two against the twenty three

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Speaker 3: twenty four Chiefs and the nineteen twenty Titans.

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Speaker 2: So regular season versus.

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Speaker 3: Playoff Lamar has been very, very different, and that is

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Speaker 3: a bit of an issue. But let's just keep going here.

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Speaker 3: So AFC playoff picture is an next topic. I think

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Speaker 3: you wanted to rank Chiefs, Bills, Ravens. I'll start in

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Speaker 3: just saying I think it's Casey, Baltimore, and Buffalo that

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Speaker 3: would be probably my order at this rate. I don't

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Speaker 3: know if my order has even really changed the last

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Speaker 3: few weeks. With Buffalo's up and down, Casey's consistency in

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Speaker 3: Baltimore kind of rising. But what are your thoughts and

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Speaker 3: we can talk about anyone else we like in the conference.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it's hard to get past

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Speaker 1: those three in the AFC, especially after these games we

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Speaker 1: just got Saturday and Christmas. The next teams are the

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Speaker 1: Steelers in Texans, who just lost to these teams basically, right,

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Speaker 1: So I agree I would have had a week ago.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore number one. They're the team that I've been investing

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Speaker 1: some futures in. I'm skeptical of bou Lamar Jackson. We

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Speaker 1: all know this about me, but I think the Baltimore

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Speaker 1: entire product, Garrick Henry, the defense that has really come

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Speaker 1: around since cal Hamilton full time of safety like that,

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Speaker 1: I believe. And however, Baltimore, even though they should win

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Speaker 1: the division, now has a path that they're going to

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Speaker 1: have possibly what I think could be the toughest first

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Speaker 1: round opponent in the Chargers among the options in the AFC.

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Speaker 1: And that you know Justin Herbert you want to face.

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Speaker 1: You'd much rather face you know, Russell Wilson or Boonicks

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Speaker 1: than Justin Herbert. I'll just put it that way. And

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Speaker 1: then you got to go to Buffalo. I do like

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Speaker 1: the matchup against Buffalo. They crushed Buffalo earlier, we still

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Speaker 1: got to play at Buffalo. He's gotta played Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: and then you got to go to Kansas City. So

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Speaker 1: I think by the fault here, the Chiefs have to

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Speaker 1: be number one because of the path that they have.

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Speaker 1: They don't have to play the first game. That's a

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Speaker 1: great way not to lose, and then they should play

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Speaker 1: Houston or Pittsburgh, which we just saw they can bleed

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Speaker 1: the life out of the game and just kind of

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Speaker 1: beat you pretty easy in that game. So I think

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Speaker 1: you have to think of the Chiefs as sitting at

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Speaker 1: home in the AFC Championship game, I think against Baltimore,

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Speaker 1: and I would consider Baltimore in that game, and we'll

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Speaker 1: get there when we get there. But Baltimore is to

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Speaker 1: get to that game or Buffalo is to get to

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Speaker 1: that game, and because of that path, you can't put

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Speaker 1: them ahead of the Chiefs in the pecking order anymore.

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Speaker 1: So that's kind of I have to think of it.

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Speaker 1: I do have Buffalo last. I think Buffalo has gone

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Speaker 1: pretty inconsistent defensively and definitely something to keep an eye

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Speaker 1: on with them. If it's not one of those three,

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Speaker 1: who do you think could come out of the AFC

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Speaker 1: if it's somehow not Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if you're just stabbing out of the air, I

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Speaker 3: think Pittsburgh, which I'll talk about in a few minutes,

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Speaker 3: is just a good price at the moment considering, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: bad stretch, bad history based off what I told you before,

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Speaker 3: But still forty and fifty to one in that area

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Speaker 3: feels a little heavy at this point, considering you know

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Speaker 3: they can win on the road, you know their defense

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Speaker 3: is consistent. And the other one I really wanted to

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Speaker 3: say was Denver. Denver's like sixty to seventy to one.

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Speaker 3: I still am interested in that top half of the league,

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Speaker 3: and waited Dboa on offense and they're fourth in defense.

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Speaker 3: So even recently they're going to give some quarterbacks some

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Speaker 3: amount of trouble. And we even saw it against Kansas

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Speaker 3: City that they can stay in those games. And Peyton's

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Speaker 3: a little bit of a wizard. I don't know that

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Speaker 3: that range is a little high to me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I get it with those teams, I'm gonna go

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Speaker 1: the other direction here. I'm just gonna default a quarterback

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Speaker 1: if I'm coming through the AFC. I'm probably gonna have

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Speaker 1: to beat Mahomes. I'm probably gonna have to beat either

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Speaker 1: Allen or Lamar or both. Possibly I'm gonna have to

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Speaker 1: beat all three of those guys. So I want Justin

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Speaker 1: Herbert and the Chargers. Give me the quarterback, the defense,

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Speaker 1: and the coaching. That'd be my pick of a sleeper.

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Speaker 1: And and we'll get back to a second. If I

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Speaker 1: have to take a shot on someone, give me who

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Speaker 1: I think might still be the hottest quarterback right now,

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Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. If they get in. We know they can

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Speaker 1: win on the road. We know he can win a shootout,

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Speaker 1: we know he can win in Arrowhead. He's not gonna

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Speaker 1: be afraid. And they can put up the points on

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Speaker 1: any one of these teams. So I think that's the

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Speaker 1: team nobody wants to see. And if you're those top teams.

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Speaker 3: The margins are just so thin there when they allow

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Speaker 3: like fifty points per game and their defense is terrible.

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Speaker 3: The other question is is the MVP still alive? Kind

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Speaker 3: of an AFC conversation at the moment. The only stats

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Speaker 3: I'll give you here before I toss it to you.

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Speaker 2: Listen.

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Speaker 3: Lamar thirty nine touchdowns and four picks QB rating is

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Speaker 3: twenty points higher than Josh's. He's also twenty first in

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Speaker 3: the NFL in rushing six point six yards per carry.

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Speaker 3: His completion percentage also four four and a half five

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Speaker 3: percentage points higher. Only one quarterback has had forty plus

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Speaker 3: passing touchdowns and five or fewer interceptions. That was Rogers

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty. And then when you look at Josh

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Speaker 3: twenty six touchdowns and six interceptions, and I get it,

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Speaker 3: eleven rushing touchdowns, but to me, a difference of like,

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Speaker 3: let's call it one and a half wins on average,

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Speaker 3: especially Baltimore wins a division. And I know what Derek

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Speaker 3: Henry's done. It's just I think Lamar's award and he's

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Speaker 3: the underdog right now.

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Speaker 2: What's your thoughts?

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Speaker 1: I disagree. I think this is Josh Allen. I think

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Speaker 1: that this thing is over and has been over. I

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Speaker 1: think this is a we're tired over Christmas threat conversation.

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Speaker 1: The only real case you can make for Lamar head

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Speaker 1: to have with Josh, I think is just the counting stats.

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Speaker 1: And I know the counting stats matter for the sort

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Speaker 1: of thing, but Josh Allen has won more games. He's

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Speaker 1: gonna have the better seed only by one. I know

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Speaker 1: he did lose head to head to Lamar. That's the

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Speaker 1: best argument that you can make going back, you know,

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Speaker 1: several months ago to a game that we've forgotten about somewhat.

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Speaker 1: Allen's had the bigger moments down the stretch here, caught

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Speaker 1: the touchdown pass on the little lateral thing, he had

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Speaker 1: the big game against the Chiefs. He's had these big

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Speaker 1: moments here in a weird way. I thought, actually the

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Speaker 1: Texans being so bad on Christmas sort of hurt Lamar's

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Speaker 1: chances because you kind of need the Heisman moment. And

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Speaker 1: I know we had that big run to start the

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Speaker 1: second half, was like, ah well, seventeen to two, like

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Speaker 1: the game was basically over anyway, you put the final

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Speaker 1: nail on the coffin. Baltimore is gonna play Cleveland next week?

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Speaker 1: Who cares? I don't care what Lamar does against Cleveland

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Speaker 1: next week. Like you put up five hundred yards and

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Speaker 1: you know, four touchdowns, he's done that. That's fine, it's Josh.

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Speaker 2: But what if Josh? But what if Josh doesn't play?

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Speaker 3: What if Josh doesn't play next week because they don't

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Speaker 3: need and Lamar tears up Cleveland.

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Speaker 2: You think that helps it all.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it helps. I think the only way

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Speaker 1: that this is a true MVP discussion, and I would

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Speaker 1: hate it, and I don't think it should go this way.

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Speaker 1: But I think Josh Allen has struggled against the Jets

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Speaker 1: very often in his career. He did not earlier this year,

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Speaker 1: and the Jets defense is not good. If Alan on

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Speaker 1: the heels of another big game and the conversation happening,

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Speaker 1: if Allen lays a stinker, has the Josh Allen game

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Speaker 1: against the Jets this weekend right now while everyone's talking,

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Speaker 1: and especially then if he sits out next week because

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Speaker 1: things are locked up anyway, that's not a great way

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Speaker 1: to send it into the conversation. Now. I think it's open.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that happens. I'll be on Allan props

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Speaker 1: in a little bit. I think it goes the other way.

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Speaker 1: I think if this game wasn't a standalone on a

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Speaker 1: Wednesday with the middle of the week, if this just

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Speaker 1: happened on a Sunday, it'd be like, ah, who cares

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Speaker 1: Like Alan had his big game like two hours later.

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Speaker 1: This is just what's happening. The underlying stats, the metrics

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Speaker 1: that look at not just interceptions, but turnovers, the fumbles

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Speaker 1: count two, stuff that counts sacks and sack yardage, the

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Speaker 1: way that he's getting help from his team. Lamar versus

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen just holistic picture. If you reduce it to

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Speaker 1: some cherry picked counting stats, then you can do the

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Speaker 1: Lamar thing. I think beyond that, the fact that Lamar

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Speaker 1: just won also last year and then lost in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be some voter fatigue in we

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Speaker 1: got the expanded ballots now, I think Lamar's gonna finish.

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Speaker 1: I think Alan finishes one or two on every ballot.

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Speaker 1: I think Lamar finishes three, four, five on some ballots.

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Speaker 1: I think Saquon's gonna sneak in there. Some people will

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Speaker 1: be like people like me, if I had a ballot,

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Speaker 1: It'll be like, no, man, Lamar shouldna have had this

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Speaker 1: thing last year. I'm not putting him up on the ballot.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna put Saquon. I'm gonna put Joe Burrow for

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Speaker 1: what he did or something like that. I think Lamar

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Speaker 1: finishes down ballot a little bit, loses some of those

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Speaker 1: second to fourth place margins. I think that matters here

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Speaker 1: to you. So I personally think, unless Josh fails this

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Speaker 1: this weekend, I still think it's over. I still think it.

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Speaker 3: Sounds fantastic conversation. Let's keep rolling here, NFC. So let's

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Speaker 3: do the playoff picture quickly. You wanted to rank Detroit, Minnesota, Philadelphia. Listen,

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Speaker 3: the Hurts thing throws this absolutely in a loop, especially

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Speaker 3: with that line kind of crashing this week. I will

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Speaker 3: say Philadelphia, Detroit, Minnesota. But you know that it's just

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Speaker 3: very hard with the injuries back and forth, especially Detroit

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Speaker 3: kind of crawling to the finish line in terms of

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Speaker 3: what's left on that roster. This one, to me was

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Speaker 3: much more tough. You go first, What do you got?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't necessarily know we have an answer here.

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Speaker 1: The Jalen Hurts stuff has come out of the last couple

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Speaker 1: hours as we're waiting on this. I was ready to

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Speaker 1: do a Cowboys money line pick earlier today. It was

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Speaker 1: like a plus three fifty. That's now down to like

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Speaker 1: a plus two to fifty. It's looking like Hurts may

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Speaker 1: not play yet. Dah. He had a concussion and they

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Speaker 1: don't really need him necessarily this week. That was kind

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Speaker 1: of the point of the pick. I think it makes

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Speaker 1: it all kind of mucky. Though we don't know what

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Speaker 1: he'll be like coming back. He runs a lot, so

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Speaker 1: will he run a lot?

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Speaker 2: Will he be.

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Speaker 1: Tentative of what will that look like? We may not

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Speaker 1: find out and tell the playoffs. I think you have

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Speaker 1: to put Detroit first among the teams here because I

403
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Speaker 1: think they are still the favorite to be the one seed.

404
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Speaker 1: So at this point, to me, we've talked about this

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Speaker 1: a lot this season. I think the AFC is those

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Speaker 1: three teams. I think the NFC is where you want

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Speaker 1: the sleeper from. I'm not gonna comment about my Vikings.

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Speaker 2: I can't do what.

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Speaker 1: I can't believe in this team. I can't recommend as

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Speaker 1: it better. That's just me, the Vikings fan. I can't.

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Speaker 1: The metrics are all pretty good, it looks pretty good.

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Speaker 1: I still think the NFC is where you want the

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Speaker 1: sleeper from, and I still think it's the team that

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Speaker 1: we've been talking a lot about that I've bet a

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Speaker 1: few times. I still think it's the Packers, and I

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Speaker 1: think they are just as good as these other teams

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Speaker 1: at the longer odds, and frankly as a better. I

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Speaker 1: would love to see the Packers lose convincingly in Minnesota

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Speaker 1: this week, so that they kind of fall off the

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Speaker 1: radar a little bit, buy me a little bit of odds.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter. They're gonna be the five with

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Speaker 1: the six seed. Either way. They're gonna have a nice

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Speaker 1: first round look against not either any of these other

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Speaker 1: three teams. And I think the Packers could go on

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Speaker 1: the road and put up points in Detroit, they could

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Speaker 1: put up points in Minnesota. In Philly, they can match

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love can be the best quarterback in the conference.

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Speaker 1: As something, the Packers are really good and the team

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Speaker 1: that in the NFC you want to avoid.

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Speaker 3: Yep, Green Bay was on my list at twelve to one.

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Speaker 3: And then let's go to the next question here because

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Speaker 3: it kind of answers my other one, which is ten

433
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 3: to one or longer, super Bowl or conference. I liked Pittsburgh.

434
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,520
Speaker 3: I said it earlier. Do I think you know the

435
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,359
Speaker 3: stat is helpful with the losing three in a row

436
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,520
Speaker 3: by ten plus it isn't, but at forty or fifty

437
00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:27,480
Speaker 3: to one, hard to pass up the pedigree, and I

438
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 3: think they can win on the road. The other one

439
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,399
Speaker 3: I think is really interesting. It's like ninety to one

440
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 3: or one hundred to one. Right now, it's just Atlanta.

441
00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 3: I mean, their defense is second in EPA per play

442
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 3: since week twelve. Their way to Dvoa still stinks because

443
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 3: their entire season resume isn't great there, but we liked

444
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 3: Atlanta in the preseason. Most of their roster is still intact.

445
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 3: We already got the quarterback change from mal Santa into

446
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 3: a rookie who looks like he's decent, looks like he

447
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,959
Speaker 3: can move. And I know the history of rookies making

448
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 3: winning Super.

449
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:56,440
Speaker 2: Bowl not good.

450
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 3: I don't think twenty twenty four, twenty twenty three, the

451
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 3: idea if a rookie is what it used to be.

452
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 3: I think there's progression. I think there's learning. I think

453
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,399
Speaker 3: they learned quickly. And I think the bon Nixes, the

454
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 3: Michael Pennix's, I think they have a shot as long

455
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 3: as their rosters together.

456
00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,120
Speaker 2: So those are my two. What do you got?

457
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:14,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it's just Packers for me,

458
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:18,200
Speaker 1: the realistic answer, that's the one we've been talking about already.

459
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 1: So I've already got positions on the Packers a couple

460
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 1: of different ways. I don't need a new position. So

461
00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:26,199
Speaker 1: I went way down the board. Here, give me a

462
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 1: ticket and I'm putting it in the app for a

463
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 1: tenth of a unit. Cincinnati Bengals Super Bowl winners one

464
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty to one. Because I want the long

465
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 1: shot to we would make the playoffs. They got to

466
00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 1: beat Denver this weekend. They got to beat Pittsburgh next weekend.

467
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 1: Not looking so bad to be able to do that.

468
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 1: This still needs some other help just to get in,

469
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 1: just to be the seventh seed. Then they got to

470
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,119
Speaker 1: go to Buffalo. I think they could win that one.

471
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 1: They have to go to Kansas City. We already know

472
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 1: how Burrow can play at Burrowhead, as he calls it.

473
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: It is a long shot for sure. At one hundred

474
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: and eighty to one. Nobody as hot as Joe Burrow

475
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 1: and Jamar Chase. The defense is awful, but Louanna Rumo

476
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: has been good in the playoffs and for like a

477
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 1: one off game, getting the right scheme to set up.

478
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,600
Speaker 1: I think to give his team a shot, and it

479
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 1: might be one of those where it's like, can you

480
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,920
Speaker 1: make two stops? Because Burrow and Chase and t are

481
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: gonna score enough drives if you like, stop once once

482
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 1: per half. Give the Bengals a shot. I don't really

483
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 1: think they're gonna win the Super Bowl, but could they

484
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 1: get in and win a game?

485
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:27,560
Speaker 2: Maybe two?

486
00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 1: And suddenly I got a ton of options. One hundred

487
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,239
Speaker 1: and eighty to one ticket that's my case, Bengals one

488
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:33,760
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty to one. Yeah.

489
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 3: I looked at Seattle at one hundred and seventy. I

490
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:38,320
Speaker 3: saw Cincinnati at one hundred and eighty. I decided neither

491
00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 3: of them, but Cincinnati probably has a better shot here,

492
00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 3: all right, Before we get into your best bets on FanDuel,

493
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 3: there is a list of Christmas special bets, and there

494
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 3: were two I kind of liked. I will do them

495
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,880
Speaker 3: quickly after. Was there anything you liked there from that list?

496
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 1: Two yours first, then I'll chime in.

497
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,879
Speaker 3: Okay, So I don't necessarily think these have incredible value.

498
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 3: I know a lot of these odds are kind of

499
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,679
Speaker 3: being stripped a little bit here, but this is just

500
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 3: some fun pizza money. I like the legnog, which is

501
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 3: eleven to one, and a kicker to have a sixty

502
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 3: five plus yard field goal?

503
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 2: Is this happening?

504
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 3: Probably not, but I did look one thing up, so

505
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:18,159
Speaker 3: total field goal attempts this year from the opponent forty

506
00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 3: to the opponent fifty. Basically, you know who the hell knows,

507
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 3: let's throw it up there. There's been thirty.

508
00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 2: Two of them.

509
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 3: We only at eighteen last year, twenty sixth the year before,

510
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,119
Speaker 3: fifteen before that, and twenty three before that. So I

511
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 3: do think coaches are now more likely to kind of

512
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 3: throw them out there in certain situations. So it's just

513
00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 3: a luck box to see where they are in the field,

514
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,520
Speaker 3: Like let's say before the half, and then the other

515
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 3: one jingle Bell Brock, which is four to one Bowers

516
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 3: forty plus receiving yards in each half, New Orleans twenty

517
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 3: eighth and DVOA versus tight ends twenty second in yards.

518
00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 3: And also they're thirty first in middle of the field

519
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 3: DVA on defense and since October first, tight ends eight

520
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 3: and two to their yards over versus New Orleans. They're

521
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,399
Speaker 3: gonna force him the ball. And this just feels like

522
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 3: in a garbage game you look up on red zone

523
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 3: and he's got like one hundred and forty four yards

524
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 3: and he's just like rolling down the field with a

525
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 3: ton of targets. So those are my two bets.

526
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,400
Speaker 1: I love Brock Bowers this week we'll get to him

527
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 1: wrapping up in my prop section. I just I love

528
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 1: the section here, like we got it's say, quanderful life.

529
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 1: We had Santa's Kittle helper like someone was in their

530
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: bag on these. So I got two for you here.

531
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 1: There's no way I'm not betting Mary Thickness any offensive

532
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,199
Speaker 1: lineman to score a touchdown this weekend. Gave me the

533
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 1: thick Man touchdown. You know I'm always wanting that one. Plus,

534
00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:44,320
Speaker 1: we got the Lions playing Monday night to close things out.

535
00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 1: I got one more shot at Dan Skipper. Is some

536
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: goofy offense like this is week seventeen. We got like

537
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 1: three or four awful games. Routine teams doing nothing. Why

538
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: wouldn't you have drop something for your backup right guard

539
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 1: or stupid I don't know what they're doing. Let somebody

540
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 1: score touchdow it's plus eight point fifty. And then one

541
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,720
Speaker 1: that I actually genuinely like and is in my best

542
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 1: bets section. So we'll come back to the case for it.

543
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: Christmas MVP Josh Allen. Two rushing scores, two passing scores,

544
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: fifteen to one. I think that is a bad number.

545
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 1: We'll get back to the case in a little while.

546
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 3: All right, let's go to your best bets.

547
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 2: This is your best.

548
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 3: Bet, Arizona and the Rams. My only stat here is

549
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,840
Speaker 3: Tyler's incredible as an underdog thirty one, seventeen and two

550
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: five hundred or better.

551
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 2: In each of his six seasons. What do you like here?

552
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 1: I love the Cardinals. We talked about this here on

553
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 1: Sunday Night as a good possibility. Give me the Cardinals

554
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 1: plus seven, one last chance for me to lose money

555
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: on this stupid division. That's kind of raking me over

556
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 1: the cold for the last month or two. I just

557
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,919
Speaker 1: don't think these teams are that far apart, even with

558
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: the injuries. I don't love the injuries. I this line

559
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 1: has moved a little bit because of them. The Cardinals

560
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 1: are missing both tackles and possibly James. I don't love

561
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: that for them. Really, the season long metrics, I think

562
00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 1: it paints a different picture than the recency bias we're

563
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 1: feeling offense Dvowa Rams ninth, Cardinals eleventh, basically the same defense.

564
00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: Rams are twentieth, Cardinals sixteenth. Arizona's better. Arizona has much

565
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 1: better special teams. The Rams are always bad special teams.

566
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,919
Speaker 1: Under Sean McVay, I think obviously these teams are going

567
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,959
Speaker 1: in opposite direction. Obviously this is a spot where the

568
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 1: Cardinals just got eliminated. The Rams need to win to

569
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,199
Speaker 1: make the playoffs, win the division. We know, Evan, with

570
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: all the trends, this is the spot to not bet

571
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: on the motivated team that's getting like the boost and

572
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: the line. We know how that goes here. This is

573
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 1: Arizona super Bowl. Now they're out. This is it. This

574
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: is their last chance to do anything of note is

575
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 1: to beat the Rams and take a division rival and

576
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 1: put them on the brink, not necessarily in the playoffs.

577
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: I'd like to we know. I hate these stupid first

578
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,959
Speaker 1: quarter bets. Arizona was one of those teams. I kept betting.

579
00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: They're the number one offense in the first quarter. The

580
00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,920
Speaker 1: Rams are bottom two defensively in the first quarter. I'm

581
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: not betting it. I'm out on the first quarter bets.

582
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 1: But boy, I wouldn't mind it if you go up

583
00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: like fourteen to nothing. Guess who did that the last

584
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 1: time they played the Rams the Cardinals early season, fourteen

585
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,200
Speaker 1: to nothing, first quarter, twenty one nothing before the Rams

586
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,399
Speaker 1: got going. And then here's the stat week sixteen or later,

587
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: teams that are forty sixty percent win rate like the

588
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: Rams playing someone eight to twenty five percent worse thirty

589
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 1: one seventy five to five ats twenty nine percent hit

590
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,239
Speaker 1: rate for the Rams in a must win spot like

591
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: this is not a spot you want to back the team.

592
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: It's the inflated line. The Rams want to clinch the division.

593
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: You gotta bet on the points here. NFCU West has

594
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 1: been the best division to bet road underdogs of under

595
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:45,159
Speaker 1: seven points seventy percent cover rate seventy nine percent when

596
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: it's between three points and a touchdown, and then Cayler

597
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: as an underdog sixty six percent. You mentioned that one

598
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: Matt Stafford favored by more than a field goal forty

599
00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:57,600
Speaker 1: one percent is just too many points. Get the seven

600
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 1: if you can. I don't mind if it's just below.

601
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 1: I think Arizona can cover. I think Arizona can win

602
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,360
Speaker 1: this game and still make that NFC last interesting going

603
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: into the last week.

604
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't disagree there. All right, let's keep going.

605
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 3: NFC matchup Carolina and Tampa Bay. The only note here

606
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 3: Bryce Young has been much much better since he got back,

607
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 3: and the one stat I thought that was great. That

608
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 3: kind of showed that off he's using his legs. First

609
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 3: three starts he had eight scrambles for thirty four yards.

610
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: Week nine on he has twenty two scrambles for one

611
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 3: hundred and ninety yards in three touchdowns. I think it's

612
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:31,720
Speaker 3: opening up the field a little bit. So Carolina Tampa,

613
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 3: what do you like?

614
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, very similar to my last one. I like the

615
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: Panthers here giveing the Panthers plus eight and it's a

616
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 1: really similar sort of case in a division game against

617
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: a team that's got to have the win.

618
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: Here.

619
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 1: Now, it doesn't quite fit that trend. I just said

620
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 1: the Panthers win rate is a little too far below

621
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: for it. But frankly it should fit the trend. The

622
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 1: Panthers should have got a couple of these wins lately.

623
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: They're not quite closing the deal, but they've covered six

624
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: out of the last seven, and if you'll look get

625
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,479
Speaker 1: back in the last six weeks, the Panthers have been

626
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,920
Speaker 1: pretty good now against Carolina. One time we bet Dallas

627
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: when the line was bad. Dallas crushed Carolina. If you

628
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 1: take that game out of the sample, that's not totally fair.

629
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 1: But if you did, the Panthers by DVA are fifteenth.

630
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 1: They're a league average team over the last six weeks.

631
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: Outside of that Dallas game, they're twelfth on offense. Gave

632
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 1: Canallas stand up Bryce Young? Twelfth offense? Like this is

633
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: a legitimately like twelfth is a playoff offense. This is

634
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 1: a real offense right now. The defense has improved a

635
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: twenty second. That's not great, but it's out of the

636
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: bottom ten at least. The Buccaneers season long metrics are

637
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 1: really good, but game to game they're still really inconsistent,

638
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: especially defensively, especially against the pass. Bryce Young. I guess

639
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 1: we're betting on Bryce again to possibly be able to

640
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: light things up here. Carolina's run defense has been terrible

641
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: all year. Tampa's gonna be able to run. I think

642
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: the Panthers may have run in this game too. Bucks

643
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: usually are good run defense, bea beya all is tough.

644
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 1: Their run defense up the middle of this season has

645
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: not been good. They've been bottom five up the middle

646
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: and Carol that is where they live in the run game.

647
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,600
Speaker 1: So I think Cuba Hubbard can match Bucky Irving. I

648
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: kind of like the over here, but that one's been

649
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: bet up a few points. I think this is like

650
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: a fun Sunday shootout back and forth all game Week

651
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: fourteen or later. Division underdogs that are on a one

652
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 1: game covering streak, like the Panthers fifty seven percent ats

653
00:30:21,200 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 1: even better if they're on a one game winning streak

654
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: straight up. Seventy one percent ats Baker as a favorite.

655
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: Thirty eight percent. You'll love to fade Baker as a favorite.

656
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: Eight points is too many for me. I make it

657
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 1: maybe five or six for Tampa Bay. They're clearly the

658
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: better team, just not this much better we get the

659
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: other side of the key number. I think you have

660
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 1: to play the money line a little bit here to

661
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: plus three forty, but main bet Carolina plus eight is

662
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 1: just too many points in a game that's inflated because

663
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 1: the Bucks have to have.

664
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,880
Speaker 3: A Carolina six and one ats last seven games. Let's

665
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 3: say if they can stand inside the number here and

666
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 3: keep it rolling all right next game Cleveland Miami. The

667
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 3: only note here DTR made four starts for the Browns.

668
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 3: They've scored thirty four points in those games, and maybe

669
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 3: the biggest issue in his second half play one passing touchdown.

670
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 3: Eight picks in those games. Not great for DTR. But

671
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 3: so I'm pretty sure you're going to be fading him

672
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 3: on some way. So how's that working out?

673
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 1: Yeah? The question was and if it was, how how

674
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: do we fade DTR? Yeah, and I'm taking the DTR

675
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 1: mind shaft all the way down. Give me the Browns

676
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: under sixteen and a half and then we'll get to

677
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: a couple alts as well. Had to wait and see. Okay,

678
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: is DTR gonna play? He's got a calf injury. I

679
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,760
Speaker 1: want my man out there because he's terrible. Ken Dorsey

680
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: says that they're prepping to start with DTR. So here

681
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: are some of the stats. This season. DTR has had

682
00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:47,120
Speaker 1: eleven passes of fifteen yards or more. He's aer for

683
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: eleven on those passes with three interceptions. This man is

684
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:54,160
Speaker 1: not an NFL quarterback or the last two seasons. Who's

685
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: been fifty five quarterbacks with at least two hundred plays.

686
00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:02,080
Speaker 1: DTR in EPA and completion seneg over expected is fifty

687
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: fifth out of fifty five. He's dead last behind such

688
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: luminaries as Drew Lock, Cooper, Rush East and Stick, Zach Wilson,

689
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 1: and Bailey Zappi, who, by the way, is the backup

690
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 1: if DTR can't go. Just In case, So look, you

691
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 1: may want to wait here. I don't want anything to

692
00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,479
Speaker 1: do with this bet. If Jamis happens to play, we

693
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 1: know how I love betting on Jamis going yolo and

694
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: throwing it all over the place. But ID think the

695
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 1: Browns are leaning full tank. Miami's defense is pretty good too. Actually,

696
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: there have been about average over the last six weeks,

697
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 1: but top ten against the run. So if they can

698
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 1: stop the run a little bit, how's Cleveland gonna score?

699
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:40,800
Speaker 1: They can't pass the ball at all here in those

700
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 1: DTR starts, As you mentioned, eight and a half points

701
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:48,520
Speaker 1: a game, here's the point total by game three, thirteen, twelve,

702
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 1: and six. All four of those easily under this number.

703
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: So sixteen and a half is way too high. I'm

704
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: taking the mind shaft under ten and a half points

705
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: three to one. They've hit that in two of four

706
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: starts for DTR hit the under. I guess, I don't

707
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 1: know if that counts as hitting, but we will take

708
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 1: it as a hit. And then under six and a

709
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 1: half is six to one odds. So I think it's

710
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 1: just an ugly, sloppy game that the Browns are not

711
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: able to score in. But I do have a couple

712
00:33:14,480 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: of props, So let me add a couple of props here.

713
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 1: These are separate, but in this game, somehow, this became

714
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 1: my favorite game of the week to bet on. I

715
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,480
Speaker 1: don't know. Week seventeen Dolphins Browns. Here we are I

716
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 1: like Tyreek Hill to score touchdown plus one twenty. Browns

717
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: are bottom five against wide receiver one by dv Away,

718
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 1: second most fantasy points allowed, nineteen touchdowns allowed, the receivers

719
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 1: already tied for third most in the NFL. Tua has sorry,

720
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: Tyreek has a touchdown and six out of ten full

721
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: two of games, five of the last seven plus one twenty.

722
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 1: I think this should be minus ods, so kind of

723
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 1: marginally in our favor. I love my long shots. Let's

724
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 1: throw in the long shot. Two touchdowns is plus eight

725
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 1: to fifty. Maybe, like, isn't it just this fantasy championship weekend?

726
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: Who's got Tyreek in their championship because he's stunk all

727
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,239
Speaker 1: season long. Isn't it just like that player to go

728
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 1: out and have the huge game when you've finally been

729
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 1: knocked out of your league. This is that game for

730
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:10,960
Speaker 1: tire week. So I like the touchdown and on the

731
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 1: other side, much as I hate DTR. One thing I've

732
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: noticed is the guy that likes DTR is Davin Joku.

733
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: He does not throw the receivers, he loves the tight end. Though.

734
00:34:20,680 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 1: When DTR plays at least half of the game, his

735
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 1: averages for Najoku seven and a half catches sixty one yards.

736
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: His line last week was four and a half catches

737
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 1: and thirty five and a half yards. So we don't

738
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 1: have lines yet here, but I want to get this

739
00:34:33,360 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: out to you. Dolphins have allowed the seventh most receptions

740
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 1: to tight ends last seven games, have allowed five or

741
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 1: more five times. They've allowed eight, nine and thirteen catches

742
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: since Week eight forward. So I will be looking for

743
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 1: a Davin Joku escalator. If DTR plays like a five,

744
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,319
Speaker 1: six to seven receptions nothing crazy, Just give me those

745
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:57,320
Speaker 1: dump offs and this kind of ugly, sloppy weather nothing

746
00:34:57,400 --> 00:35:00,120
Speaker 1: game where the Browns can't get the ball moving. If

747
00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: you want to go crazy, put some of this stuff

748
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,279
Speaker 1: together into big SGP. This is the spot to do it.

749
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 1: It's one of only two games in the afternoon. We

750
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 1: all know I'll have my full attention over on Vikings

751
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 1: Packers watching that one with the family here. But hopefully

752
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 1: Tyre week and then JOK who are doing their thing.

753
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 1: Hopefully DTR is doing his two and taking the mind

754
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: shaft all the way down with no points on the board.

755
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, here's the SGP for me at least Cleveland under

756
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half team total Najoku reception's over and

757
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 3: DTR rushing touchdown. So I'm gonna try to call how

758
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 3: they get into the end zone and still stay under

759
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 3: the number as he's scrambling around. All right, let's go

760
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,160
Speaker 3: to now Brendan's Mary Propsmiths. So we're gonna go through

761
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 3: a bunch of props here pretty quickly. See the thunder

762
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 3: lightning round the thunder. Just to go one by one here,

763
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 3: you're starting with bon Nicks. I mean, he's done great

764
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 3: in terms of scrambling. Bengals allow a lot of scrambles themselves.

765
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: So what's the play here.

766
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:58,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take the over on the rushing yards.

767
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: This is a Saturday afternoon over twenty one and a

768
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: half rushing yards, big game. I was really close to

769
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 1: coming out with a Denver plus three and a half

770
00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:08,319
Speaker 1: plus three A lot of plays in the market. I

771
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: do think it's a pretty good spot for Denver if

772
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 1: it's over a field goal. They got a big special

773
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 1: teams advantage. I think they can score on this Bengals defense,

774
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 1: but have a lot of trends on the Bengals Joe Burrows.

775
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 1: So I did the whole Joe birthing in the top here,

776
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 1: I couldn't quite get there. And Denver does have the

777
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 1: Week eighteen game against the Chiefs in their pocket. They

778
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: really need one of the games, so I think this

779
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:31,680
Speaker 1: is a little less of a desperation spot for them. Here,

780
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: this looks sloppy. We might get like heavy rain twenty

781
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: to thirty mile an hour win. Gus. Also, bo Nicks

782
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 1: had a game like that in September against the Jets

783
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: that went really, really badly for him, so I stayed

784
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,360
Speaker 1: away from that. But if it's sloppy, and if the

785
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 1: Bengals defense is beatable, how could I play it a

786
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:50,919
Speaker 1: different way? Well, I think Denver can pass, I think

787
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 1: bo Nicks can do some stuff, and I think bo

788
00:36:53,360 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 1: Nicks is gonna do some stuff with his legs as well.

789
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 1: We've seen that a lot this season, where his instincts takeover.

790
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: He is a runner. He wants to go make a

791
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: play with his legs if he needs to Trey Hendrickson,

792
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:05,919
Speaker 1: I for the Bengals, leads the league in sacks. He's

793
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 1: the one man pass rushing scene. And here's what's happening.

794
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: The Bengals allow the most rushing yards to quarterbacks. I

795
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 1: think gets Hendrickson, the one guy getting through, gets the

796
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,439
Speaker 1: quarterback out and scrambling, and there's not a lot else

797
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: out there. The rest of the Bengals are not getting

798
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: you the quarterbacks, so there's a little bit of room there.

799
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 1: Ten different quarterbacks this season have run for twenty nine

800
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:28,279
Speaker 1: yards or more against the Bengals defense. Bone Nicks has

801
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:31,000
Speaker 1: run for twenty three or more eight times himself. That

802
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,360
Speaker 1: obviously hits the over here. I think in a big game,

803
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,320
Speaker 1: you always like, this is a playoff game. Essentially. You

804
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 1: love the quarterback rushing in those big games because you

805
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 1: know they're going to try to make some sort of

806
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 1: desperation play with their legs. Just a simple one Bonnicks

807
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: over twenty one and a half rushing yards.

808
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: I like it.

809
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 3: All Right, Let's go to Devontae Adams here. Now, I'll

810
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 3: give you one stat. We talked about the motivation. He

811
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 3: threw four Rodgers' four hundred and ninety ninth touchdown last

812
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 3: two weeks, twenty two targets for Devonte, So I'm seventeen

813
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 3: first read targets, which means he's just looking for him.

814
00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 3: So I what direction do you like, Davante in?

815
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm giving you full credit on this one. I'm

816
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: calling this the Evan Special. We're going for the Devonte

817
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:12,440
Speaker 1: Adams touchdown. And I get a little escalator here, So

818
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: give me the touchdowns plus one sixty five at the

819
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 1: bills and my case is exactly what you just said.

820
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:21,280
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers has forty ninety nine passing touchdowns for his career,

821
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: and boy doesn't look like he wants DeVonta Adams his

822
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 1: body to get number five hundred. Make sure he gets

823
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: the ball back that way, right. Adams has had a

824
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,879
Speaker 1: touchdown in four straight games now with the Jets, five

825
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 1: of the last five touchdowns the last four They got

826
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: that timing back, right. We know how good this pair

827
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: has been in the red zone. Timing is back, go

828
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 1: back to their last stretch. Even in the Packers time

829
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers, he's had a touchdown in ten of

830
00:38:45,320 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 1: sixteen now with Aaron Rodgers at least one and again

831
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 1: multiple TV is like four of those games as well.

832
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: This isn't even really a matchup thing for me. If

833
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 1: Bill's pass defense is a little bit beatable lately, I

834
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 1: just want the Davonte touchdown. They're gonna have a shot somewhere.

835
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 1: But okay, if I need it to be Rogers' first

836
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: touchdown so that we hit five hundred, then I give

837
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,040
Speaker 1: him outs a cookie. I gotta take the escalator here

838
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: plus one sixty five on the touchdown for Adams, but

839
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 1: first Jets touchdown plus three seventy five doesn't have to be.

840
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 1: It could be a rushing touchdown, but we can't get

841
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: Rogers thrown at anybody else. And if it's the first

842
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: Jets touchdown, we saw the Bills start out slow last week,

843
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 1: trail early. How about the same here? First touchdown for

844
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: DeVonta Adams is eleven to one. I'm not going crazy

845
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 1: on those. I don't have a lot of odds on

846
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: these first touchdown bets. We'll let Jill handle that for us.

847
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: But I think just a little fun on DeVante Adams

848
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:41,720
Speaker 1: and then le me just jump right into the flip side.

849
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, I mentioned him earlier. Josh Allen, give me

850
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: his touchdown bet. As well. It's minus one ten out

851
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 1: there a one key book. Get that number for sure.

852
00:39:50,480 --> 00:39:52,359
Speaker 1: It's minus one fifty five or longer all the other

853
00:39:52,360 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: books that I saw. Josh Allen, I think is going

854
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 1: to get with this Bills offense anything he wants. On

855
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 1: the Jets defense their bottom five I pass defense the

856
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: last six weeks, they're bottom quarter of the league defense.

857
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:05,959
Speaker 1: On the road, that Bills are the number one home

858
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 1: offense until last week against the Patriots. The Bills have

859
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,680
Speaker 1: scored thirty or more points eight straight games. So I

860
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 1: don't mind the team total over twenty seven a half.

861
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:17,320
Speaker 1: If you want that, I'll take the Allen rushing touchdown

862
00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 1: minus one to ten. He's done that five of six

863
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,320
Speaker 1: games now. The Jets have allowed seven rushing touchdowns the quarterback,

864
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:27,000
Speaker 1: second most in the NFL. Two touchdowns for Allen on

865
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: the ground is five to one, and that brings us

866
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 1: all the way back to the top. When I got

867
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 1: that Christmas MVP bat at fan duel, fifteen to one

868
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,879
Speaker 1: for two passing touchdowns over one and a half, that's

869
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 1: his line, So basically fifty to fifty on that two

870
00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. Gave me both of those fifteen to one.

871
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 1: He's done that three times already the season, including two

872
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 1: of the last three games. And I think that if

873
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 1: they are close down near the goal line, they're gonna

874
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 1: give him that rushing touchdown because they want the stat

875
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 1: They want him to get that MVP, and I think

876
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,880
Speaker 1: he's gonna go get it this Sunday. So Allen touchdown

877
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 1: and then that MVP bet posted at FanDuel under the

878
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:09,279
Speaker 1: specials two passing and two rushing touchdowns fifteen to one.

879
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:10,479
Speaker 1: Go get that MVP.

880
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:10,919
Speaker 2: Josh.

881
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have an SGP of Josh Allen first touchdown

882
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:16,760
Speaker 3: for the Bills and Devonte first touchdown.

883
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:17,360
Speaker 1: I would love that.

884
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:20,920
Speaker 3: Gonna do that together, all right? Your next prop here,

885
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,799
Speaker 3: Calvin Ridley. The only thing I found interesting. Calvin Ridley

886
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,239
Speaker 3: is twenty third in routes run this year of those

887
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 3: top twenty three wide receivers. He has the highest average

888
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 3: depth of target. So something downfield might be something interesting

889
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 3: for Ridley. So what are you exploring?

890
00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm exploring Calvin Ridley on the reveng Jescalator against

891
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: this old team, the Jaguars. This is an ugly gross game,

892
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: but we got a lot of those games this week,

893
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: so Let's get some props and make them interesting. A

894
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 1: lot of trends like the under here, I can't get there.

895
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 1: I am getting crushed on unders lately. This line is

896
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 1: thirty nine and a half. Jaguars defense is terrible. The

897
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 1: Titans defense has been almost bad lately. I would rather

898
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 1: attack the Jaguars defense with Calvin Ridley like the Titans, well,

899
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: they're dead last in DVA, their dead last passing DVA.

900
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,760
Speaker 1: Jacksonville has a lot of the third most receiving yards

901
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:10,359
Speaker 1: two wide receivers. Thirteen guys this season have at least

902
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: sixty nine yards, very nice. Eight of those guys had

903
00:42:13,440 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: a touchdown with their sixty nine yards. They also have

904
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 1: allowed eight hundred yard games two receivers. So Calvin Ridley

905
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 1: already played Jacksonville a month ago. He had twelve targets

906
00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 1: in that game, his second highest of the season. He

907
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: had seven catches, his second highest the season as well,

908
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,480
Speaker 1: now only fifty nine yards, but he's close to a

909
00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 1: couple other big plays there. Am I like Kelvin Ridley

910
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 1: better with Mason Rudolph. Mason Rudolph with Ridley eight and

911
00:42:37,480 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: a half targets for seventy five yards with Will Levist

912
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:42,279
Speaker 1: six and a half targets for forty eight yards there,

913
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:46,760
Speaker 1: So big difference toward Mason Rudolph. Not really a touchdown

914
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 1: threat this year, but he's a big dude. He's been

915
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,880
Speaker 1: a touchdown threat for his career eight or more touchdowns

916
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:54,359
Speaker 1: in five seas or three out of five seasons so far.

917
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 1: So here's the Revan Jeessclaer. We'll start with just the

918
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:00,520
Speaker 1: receiving yards over fifty eight and a half fifty nine

919
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 1: yards that numbers just a little too low. As much

920
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 1: targets as getting now, I don't need just the touchdown

921
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:09,720
Speaker 1: plus two of five. But again, eight times this season

922
00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 1: the Jaguars have allowed fifty nine or more and a touchdown,

923
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: actually sixty nine or more in a touchdown, So put

924
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: those together, that's plus three forty five. Calvin's done it

925
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: himself three times already this season. And then on the

926
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 1: way up, one hundred yard game is plus four fifty

927
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty plus a touchdown is thirteen to one.

928
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: So obviously kind of slightlyest lower bets on the way

929
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 1: up there. But I think Calvin Ridley in a game

930
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,800
Speaker 1: that doesn't matter much to anybody, it should matter a

931
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 1: lot to him that did not go all for him

932
00:43:38,440 --> 00:43:41,359
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. It's back in Jacksonville this game. I think

933
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 1: you'd like to show the fans there what they missed

934
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:43,400
Speaker 1: out on.

935
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, breaking news, he just said in a press conference. Actually,

936
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 3: I want to get them. They talked shit to me

937
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 3: last time, Calvin Ridley on facing his former team. So

938
00:43:53,040 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 3: let's ride the escalator. Your last two here are both

939
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,040
Speaker 3: tight ends. Give me them back to back.

940
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, at both tight ends. I think it's a good

941
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:02,919
Speaker 1: tight end week. We talked about Joker earlier. I'm gonna

942
00:44:02,920 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: go with TJ. Hockinson over forty three and a half

943
00:44:05,880 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 1: yards against the Packers. This is that other big afternoon game.

944
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 1: I got a lot of notes here about this game.

945
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 1: This is a fun one. It's a really fun good game.

946
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 1: Best game of Sunday for sure. Packers are really good.

947
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:20,480
Speaker 1: No side for me, I just want Hawkinson here. We've

948
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 1: been playing tight ends against the Packers multiple times. We

949
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 1: hit the John New escalator on Thanksgiving, we hit the

950
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 1: Kittle touchdown the week before. Packers are bottom three against

951
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: tight ends by DVA. They've allowed six of them to

952
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: have fifty more yards. They've allowed six of them to

953
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: have five receptions and more just since the start of October.

954
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 1: And my guy Hawkinson loves playing the Packers. Last year

955
00:44:41,440 --> 00:44:44,399
Speaker 1: six catches eighty eight yards in a score, previous year

956
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 1: seven for fifty nine and eight for sixty six with Detroit,

957
00:44:47,760 --> 00:44:51,000
Speaker 1: so on, a totally different team still shredding these Packers,

958
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:55,279
Speaker 1: and Hockinson is playing more. His first three games back,

959
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 1: coming off that ir forty percent snap rate somewhere in

960
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 1: that range. He's up to the sixties the next month.

961
00:45:01,680 --> 00:45:03,879
Speaker 1: Last week he hit seventy percent for the first time.

962
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: And this is a huge game, so I gotta believe

963
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,879
Speaker 1: he's gonna be out there playing a lot, should get

964
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 1: some of those dump offs that Minnesota is throwing every

965
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 1: now and then. His lines are at four and a

966
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:17,200
Speaker 1: half receptions forty three and a half yards. I like

967
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 1: the receiving yards the most. He's hit that one in

968
00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: four of eight and is playing more now. But watch

969
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 1: the app. I'll probably end up working up a little

970
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 1: bit of an escalator here. I think both those lines

971
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,000
Speaker 1: are low. The other one that I love, back full

972
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 1: circle to one that you mentioned on the Christmas specials,

973
00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 1: gave me the brock Bowers. All the brock Bowers let's

974
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 1: take the receptions escalator. I almost almost came to the

975
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,920
Speaker 1: podcast with maybe my grossest pick of the season on

976
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,880
Speaker 1: a Saints Raiders over thirty seven and a half. My

977
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 1: model loves that. I've got some trends backing it. I can't,

978
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 1: I can't do it. I don't want to play that angle.

979
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: I want to play brock Bowers because if they're gonna

980
00:45:53,200 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: do something useful offensively, why not the kid that's ten

981
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 1: yards away from the rookie Ted End record, Mike Dick

982
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 1: his record. By the way, he loves him.

983
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 2: I don't know.

984
00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:06,319
Speaker 1: Dickab probably does love him. We love him. I think

985
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: An O'Connell loves brock Bowers when he starts or plays

986
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: at least a third of the snaps this season, brock

987
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,320
Speaker 1: Bower's lines in six of those games averaged eight and

988
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,880
Speaker 1: a half catches ninety two yards on over eleven targets

989
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: a game. He's had at least seventy one yards all

990
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:25,080
Speaker 1: but one of those games. To your point, he had

991
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 1: a ten catch, one hundred and forty yard game, so

992
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,720
Speaker 1: maybe that hits your special as well. In of those games,

993
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 1: five of the six games he had double digit targets

994
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: and eight or more receptions. The Saints are bottom five

995
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 1: DVA against tight ends. They've only allowed one touchdown this season,

996
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 1: but they really have been faced many good tight ends.

997
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: Guys they have faced put up big games in Djoku

998
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,800
Speaker 1: nine for eighty one, Kelsey nine for seventy, Dallas Goddard

999
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 1: ten for one hundred and seventy. That will go well

1000
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 1: for your special No lines yet on Bowers, but I

1001
00:46:54,200 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 1: liked it so much I had to fit in here

1002
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 1: last week. His line with six and a half receptions,

1003
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 1: I'll be looking for over the six and a half

1004
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,440
Speaker 1: and then probably a receptions escalator like eight, nine to

1005
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 1: ten all the way up. I think the Raiders, what

1006
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 1: else do they have left to do but give Brack

1007
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 1: Bowers a little pushed, Maybe not towards Rookie.

1008
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 2: Of the Year.

1009
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,440
Speaker 1: I think that ship has probably sailed. But could he

1010
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 1: lead the league in receptions? Could he break some all

1011
00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:20,360
Speaker 1: time rookie records? Why not? What else do they have

1012
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:22,640
Speaker 1: to do? I think he has another really big game,

1013
00:47:23,000 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: and I think maybe we get another tight end Sunday.

1014
00:47:25,560 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 1: What do you call the National tight Ends Day? Let's

1015
00:47:28,120 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 1: start a new National tight Ends Day and hit all

1016
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:31,719
Speaker 1: these tight end props to close out the year.

1017
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I can just see it too because Dick

1018
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 3: get coached the Saints, so they can have some sort

1019
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 3: of like you know, Rock Bowers breaks his record.

1020
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:40,720
Speaker 2: And there's the connection.

1021
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,359
Speaker 3: It'll all just work out on the broadcast, all right.

1022
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 2: That's it.

1023
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 3: That's it for the pack Action Network podcast for Week

1024
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 3: seventeen Best Bets episode. Do not forget to download the

1025
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 3: free award winning Action Network app to see more of

1026
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 3: our Action Nework contributors. Plus you can track your own picks.

1027
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 3: Also check out our Action Network discord server to chop

1028
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:01,960
Speaker 3: it up with experts. I'm in there, fellow gamblers. Tons

1029
00:48:01,960 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 3: of people hanging out and chatting during these games. There

1030
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 3: is a link in the description of the podcast. Also,

1031
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:10,320
Speaker 3: do not mess our Week seventeen betting preview episode with

1032
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,359
Speaker 3: Stucky and Ray Bond, which is out now.

1033
00:48:12,800 --> 00:48:13,720
Speaker 2: We will be back.

1034
00:48:13,920 --> 00:48:17,280
Speaker 3: Sunday night for the recap episode, me and Brandon talking

1035
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:20,040
Speaker 3: about the entire Sunday slate. We will recap Saturday, we

1036
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 3: will talk about playoff scenarios, and we will be one

1037
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 3: week till the playoff field is set. Thank you for

1038
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 3: listening to the Action Hour podcast. I'm Evan Abrams, that

1039
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 3: is brandon Edison. Good luck with all of your bets

1040
00:48:32,120 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 3: this week and enjoy the weekend. Action Network reminds you

1041
00:48:52,080 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 3: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

1042
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 3: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to

1043
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 3: seven at one eight hundred Gambler