1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:32,239 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. Well 7 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 1: as Greg Jarrett was just mentioning the dollar showing strength 8 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: at least against the Japanese end right now one ten forty, 9 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,840 Speaker 1: also strength against the pounds sterling at one fifty three. 10 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: Here to tell us more about exchange rates and the 11 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: US dollars, Dr Win Thin, Global head of Emerging Markets 12 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 1: FX for Brown Brothers Harriman uh Win Thin, thanks very 13 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,320 Speaker 1: much for being with us. The strength of the US 14 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: dollar is that going to continue against emerging market uh, 15 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,160 Speaker 1: currencies such as Mexico and Brazil, as well as Indonesia, 16 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 1: Malaysia and so on. Yes, but first of all, thanks 17 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 1: thanks for having me. It's always a pleasure. Um. Yes, 18 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 1: uh I look for continued e M weakness. Um, it's 19 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: for a riot of reasons. You know. Obviously the big 20 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:19,680 Speaker 1: stories is higher U S rates, but I think what's 21 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:24,000 Speaker 1: really given this UH, this last leg lower in the 22 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,600 Speaker 1: e M pushes the is the rising trade tensions, you know, 23 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: and strong global growth, strong global trade flows are are 24 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,399 Speaker 1: really bullish for em and with all the risks that 25 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: are out there, all the tip for tat um uncertainty, 26 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: but where where the US WE stands, that's all hurting 27 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: the emerging markets. So yes, it's a broad based dollar rally. 28 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: It's not just against the e M, it's also been 29 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: rallied against the majors. So um that broad based rallually 30 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: being driven by the US interest rate outlook. So when 31 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: you know, one thing that I'm struck by is the 32 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: strengthening dollar has been a trend for many weeks now 33 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: and people have been adjusting to that. The rapid depreciation 34 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 1: of the Chinese un however, seems to be picking up speed. 35 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: Has been the biggest weekly drop since tu in that currency, 36 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:15,239 Speaker 1: and you just have to wonder, you know, is this 37 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: UH an active devaluation by the Chinese government or does 38 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: this signal further and and rapidly deteriorating outlook for the 39 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: Chinese economy. Well, I think it's uh. Two thinks that 40 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: it's still early on so I don't want to tell 41 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: the alarm bells. It's it's certainly uh, you know, raising 42 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:35,079 Speaker 1: eyebrows the speed of the move this week. But what 43 00:02:35,200 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 1: I've noted and what I've been telling our clients is 44 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,240 Speaker 1: that this is a short period of you want under 45 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: performance follows a long extended period of you want a performance. 46 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 1: And when the rest of em was selling off in 47 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: uh do out most of Q two UM, the Chinese 48 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: one was really holding up pretty well. It was almost unchanged. 49 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 1: I would say a year to date, if you look 50 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: at your w c RS page, the Chinese you want 51 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: is the fifth best performing currency is down only one 52 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:07,399 Speaker 1: against the dollar year to date. That compares to minus 53 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 1: for past though, minus seventeen and a half a turkey. 54 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: So I just want to keep things sort of in 55 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:14,000 Speaker 1: in perspective. The other thing I would also add is 56 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: if you look at China's real effective exchange rate that 57 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,959 Speaker 1: is just for the trade inflation, et cetera. UM, it's 58 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: done at the b I S. If you look on 59 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:25,960 Speaker 1: your on your page, you carry that b I S 60 00:03:26,080 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: DCNR index. UM, it's it's been rising this past year, 61 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: and that's because the yuan is outperforming. That is is 62 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: it's training partners. The currency of its trading partners have 63 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: been weakening much more than yuan, and so the in 64 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: real effective terms, the yu want's actually appreciating. So again, 65 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: just things that sort of think about you know, I 66 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: know that you know these headlines, but you know, and 67 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 1: you have to think a sort of longer view that. 68 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: Uh and look, remember just that they're also reminded one 69 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: there in two thousands of team the last time China 70 00:03:54,720 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: shock the marks of evaluation, it ends up having contend 71 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,840 Speaker 1: with the massive cap rout flows out of China, know, uh, 72 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 1: and it really roys CAPA marks. I don't think that's 73 00:04:03,080 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: something they want to do right now. So for now, 74 00:04:04,880 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: I think it's just sort of regular adjustment. Well, I 75 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: mean to talk about some of those headlines, I just 76 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,800 Speaker 1: want to think give you one of them. China think 77 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:14,760 Speaker 1: tank warns of financial panic risk and leaked note. I 78 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:18,279 Speaker 1: mean there was a leaked report by a Chinese government 79 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: backed think tank talking about how with the rising defaulse, 80 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,279 Speaker 1: with the trade tensions, liquidity shortages, China's looking pretty shaky 81 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: right now. What do you make of China? Like the 82 00:04:28,800 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: rest of them is struggling um with a global environment 83 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 1: that's that's not as friendly as it used to be. 84 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 1: Of course, China has its own domestic issues with the 85 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,919 Speaker 1: banking sector, financials that I totally agree with that. My 86 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: base case has always been that that that it will 87 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 1: moddle through and I think that and the reason that's 88 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: one of the main things that I feel that evaluation 89 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: is unlikely is that's just gonna add just more uncertain 90 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 1: to the mix. Um they really in times uncertainty. I 91 00:04:55,800 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: think in general, the Chinese policy makers seemed a favor stability, 92 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: at least appearance of stability, and I think I'd be 93 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 1: sort of pushing the panic button if they were the 94 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: value now. So um, you know again it's keep we 95 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: gotta keep buying this. You know a lot of people 96 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,159 Speaker 1: in calling for disaster and from China's last pan twenty years, 97 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: and you'll continue to model through and then that's that's 98 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 1: still my basic case. Win. Then give you about twenty seconds. 99 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,920 Speaker 1: If emerging market currencies continue to weaken against the US dollar, 100 00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:23,279 Speaker 1: all things being equal, isn't that going to be better 101 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:28,160 Speaker 1: for their exports? Uh? It's better for their exports, yes, Um, 102 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 1: But again it's for instance, a lot of these countries 103 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,160 Speaker 1: that have taken on a lot of external debt in dollars, 104 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 1: so it becomes much more owners to repay that actor 105 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: in finance excellent nets. So there's pros and cons um 106 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: you know. To me, I think the emerging markets just 107 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: prefer a stable global environment, free trade, the currencies you 108 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,080 Speaker 1: know rise, their currencies fall. But I think the possible 109 00:05:52,080 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: making the in which is like some clarity out of 110 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: the US. They like they have to step back from 111 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,479 Speaker 1: uh this this trade war talk, um, and you know 112 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: that's what the US will take care of themselves. Dr Winton, 113 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Dr Winton, 114 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 1: global head of Emerging Markets and Effects at Brown Brothers Harriman, 115 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:11,560 Speaker 1: coming to us UH in New York and some some 116 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: good insight and good perspective when people start to wring 117 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: their hands over this really rapid evaluation of the UN 118 00:06:19,160 --> 00:06:22,279 Speaker 1: given the fact that it has appreciated for the most part. 119 00:06:22,440 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 1: In recent months, the US Food and Drug Administration has 120 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:45,680 Speaker 1: approved g W Pharmaceuticals treatment for two rare forms of 121 00:06:45,839 --> 00:06:50,080 Speaker 1: childhood epilepsy. Now the treatment, it's a liquid. It's made 122 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: from a compound in the marijuana plant. And to tell 123 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: us more about this, we've got the chief executive of 124 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: g W Pharmaceuticals, Justin go over, Justin, thank you very 125 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,560 Speaker 1: much for being with us. Tell us about this treatment 126 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 1: and is it epidialects or epity Alex, I beg your part. 127 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 1: That's correct, it's epidialects, So thank you very much for 128 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 1: having me on your show. Yes, the treatment is called epidialects. 129 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 1: It is made from a molecule called cannabi dial, which 130 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 1: is a part of the cannabis plant that does not 131 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: make you high. So it's a purified um cannabi dial 132 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: formulation administered to children in the form of an oral solution. 133 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: We have developed this treatment within the field of childhood 134 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 1: onset epilepsy, conducted three controlled clinical trials published in leading 135 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: medical journals, and obviously delighted earlier this week that the 136 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 1: FDA has approved this medication. The types of conditions that 137 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: we treat, these two examples of that are called lenox 138 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 1: gasto syndrome and travase syndrome are two of the most 139 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: difficult forms of epilepsy to treat, often uh commencing in 140 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:09,400 Speaker 1: very early childhood, characterized by seizures that tend not to 141 00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: respond to other anti epileptic drugs. So it's a real breakthrough. 142 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: The first medicine approved by FDA derived from the cannabis 143 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: plant and the first and a new type of anti 144 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: epileptic drug. So I see that the Drug Enforcement Administration 145 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:27,880 Speaker 1: has yet to reclassify this form of cannabis and that 146 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: it has to do so before it can be put 147 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 1: to market. Can you give us a sense of how 148 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,079 Speaker 1: long that could take and what the outreach has been 149 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 1: like there? Yes, So it's important to say that this 150 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 1: is not a political issue. It's very much a procedural 151 00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: one that follows the FDA's approval. So under the rate 152 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: relevant regulations, the d e A has up to ninety 153 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 1: days um to what is termed reschedule this product Epidialects, 154 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 1: so that it can be prescribed by for positions and 155 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: available through pharmacy. So um, the the FDA will have 156 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: made a recommendation to the d e A as to 157 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: the schedule which they believe epidialect should be placed into. 158 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: The d e A will currently be reviewing that recommendation 159 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: and will rule on that within a ninety day period. 160 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,839 Speaker 1: So what that means commercially is that the product will 161 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 1: be available. We believe in the early fall of this year, 162 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: could this could this drug to be used to treat 163 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: other types of conditions well, our focus for epidialects has 164 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: very much been in within the epilepsy arena and specifically 165 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: within these two forms of childhood epilepsy. UM. I think 166 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: it's fair to say that our focus for future development 167 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: of this product falls within the epilepsy arena. So there 168 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: are several other forms of epilepsy, particularly those in childhood, 169 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: which summer suffer similar we have suffer similar situations with 170 00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:08,160 Speaker 1: regard to seizures that are difficult to control. So there 171 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: really continues to be an unmet need within the field 172 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: of epilepsy, and our focus remains dedicated towards addressing those 173 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: patient needs. I mean, more broadly, I would say that 174 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,599 Speaker 1: there are within the cannabis plant and within our own pipeline, 175 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:26,800 Speaker 1: a range of other molecules which we call cannabinoids that 176 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 1: may not be epidone X, but maybe different molecules within 177 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: the plant that may well have applications and other disease areas. 178 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: And I certainly can provide a few examples well, but 179 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:38,800 Speaker 1: justin before you get into that, I think that one 180 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: reason why we found this so particular particularly interesting is 181 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: because the FDA has been slow to approve medications that 182 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: are based on cannabis or marijuana. And I'm wondering, you know, 183 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: you've been in the industry, the pharmaceutical industry for nearly 184 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 1: two decades. Was the process of getting this drug approved 185 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 1: different when it comes to dealing with the FDA. Well, 186 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: i'd firstly, I would say, I think, I mean, the 187 00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: FDA will be the first agency in the world to 188 00:11:08,280 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 1: have approved epidialects, So I'm not sure I would say 189 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: that they've been slow. In fact, I think this review 190 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:18,080 Speaker 1: timeline has been rapid, and the engagement that we've had 191 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: with FDA over the last five years as we've developed 192 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 1: this medicine has been very constructive. Indeed, so I think 193 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,160 Speaker 1: where I think, uh, And you saw statements from FDA 194 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 1: ear earlier this week which I think ring true with us, 195 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: which is when when it comes to the rigors of science, 196 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 1: when it comes to looking at the cannabis plant and 197 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 1: identifying molecules from it that may be developed as prescription medications. Um, 198 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: you know, the FDA are willing to assess and potentially 199 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: approve those kinds of medications and engage constructively. I think 200 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 1: what they have been pointing out is that that's a 201 00:11:53,160 --> 00:11:58,199 Speaker 1: different process and a different way of of approaching patients 202 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: treatment uh to um, you know, marijuana per se. So 203 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: I think it's what what this approval does do, is 204 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: it it very much signals the fact that if one 205 00:12:10,559 --> 00:12:15,679 Speaker 1: looks at cannabis and tries to apply rate modern pharmaceutical 206 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: principles to components of the cannabis plant, that f d 207 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: A will and have shown themselves to engage very constructively 208 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 1: with industry. Thank you so much for being with us. 209 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: Justin go Over, chief executive of GW Pharmaceuticals based in California, 210 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: coming to us after having their drug based aimed at 211 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: curing epilepsy approved by the FDA. Congratulations. Our next guest 212 00:12:57,360 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: has a fascinating story and he over sees a fascinating company. 213 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: So I'm very glad to bring in Abe and Kuma, 214 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: his chief executive and co founder of Nyanza, which is 215 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: based in San Francisco, but he joins us here in 216 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: our eleven three oh studios. Abe, your company is uh 217 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: pretty pretty significant and it does business with a lot 218 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:20,200 Speaker 1: of the biggest companies out there. But I want to 219 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 1: start with your story because you hadn't even seen a 220 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: computer when you were growing up in Ghana before arriving 221 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 1: in the US. Tell us a little bit about that. Sure. 222 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: First of all, thanks for having me, um. So I 223 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 1: grew up in Ghana. As you mentioned, I went to 224 00:13:35,160 --> 00:13:37,839 Speaker 1: high school in Ghana, but moved to the United States 225 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 1: for college. And so I went to college at Caltech 226 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:45,439 Speaker 1: in southern California, where I, without seeing a computer, I 227 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 1: did the crazy thing of deciding to major in computer 228 00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:52,079 Speaker 1: science and electrical engineering and so and so far it's 229 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: worked out great. Yeah, that's what everybody does, right. You know, 230 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: you don't know, you don't have a computer growing up, 231 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 1: and you decide comp you there's technology is where it's at. 232 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: Like you go to cal Tech and then you go 233 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: to Harvard Business School and then you've become a chief 234 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: executive of a tech Yeah. Right, that's those no stumbling 235 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 1: blocks there right now there you go. Um, let's talk 236 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 1: a little bit about how you decided that the founding 237 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: the answer that this company serves a need. What did 238 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: you see out there and what caused you to think 239 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: I can solve this problem? For sure? So, so I 240 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: started your answer, first of all with a group of 241 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: very talented UM other individuals as well. Um I have 242 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: two other co founders, um Dan and on and both immigrants, 243 00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: both immigrants, UM a couple of m I T pH 244 00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: d s. The problem that we saw was basically sort 245 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: of a melding of what's happening within large businesses today. 246 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: Right within large businesses, there there is an untapped opportunity 247 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: to actually make sense of the data that's flowing freely 248 00:14:56,600 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 1: on their networks today. Data is the new oil, and 249 00:15:00,280 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: what we do is we enable our customers actually makes 250 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: sense of the data on their networks to solve a 251 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 1: number of different business problems. One of the core business 252 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 1: problems we allow them to use the data for is 253 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: around user experience and performance management. In the world where 254 00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 1: things are growing from the types and diversity of devices 255 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: connecting to their networks and the growth of IoT devices, 256 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: a lot of customers have the ability to harness and 257 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: generate tremendous new business value on the database on their networks. 258 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: Think about what we do as being akin to what 259 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: Google does with websites right. Google allows you to make 260 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,840 Speaker 1: sense out of your websites. Google allows you to make 261 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:46,920 Speaker 1: sense out of the data that UM your people are 262 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: searching on the Internet for we're doing something similar with 263 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 1: the data on computer networks. I don't think though of 264 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: Google Search as having artificial intelligence sort of algorithms trying 265 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: to parse out and turn in large codes in the 266 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:04,720 Speaker 1: same way. I mean, perhaps that is the case, but 267 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,080 Speaker 1: when you're talking, I wonder how important it is to 268 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: have some sort of intelligence in analyzing the data for 269 00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 1: say an uber or what are the other companies you 270 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 1: work with? Yeah, so so what Whether it's um Uber 271 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: leveraging our technology for driving user experience on their computer networks. 272 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 1: Whether it is large universities um whether it's Stanford, whether 273 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: it's USC, whether it's Notre Dame leverage internet technology to 274 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: generate insights for the I T teams to better support 275 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: the students and the end users. Whether it's a large 276 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: global manufacturing organization leveraging the data on their networks in 277 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: order to effectively um UM if um UM drive the 278 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 1: manufacturing process because of the device land themselves, big data, 279 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:56,920 Speaker 1: machine learning AI. It's all about making It allows us, 280 00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,480 Speaker 1: It allows our customers to see the invisible. It allows 281 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: our customers to make sense of invisible of what's happening 282 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: on their networks. By bringing you know, all this disparate 283 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: unstructured data, making sense of it to solve different business problems. 284 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 1: One of those could be performance, another one could be, um, 285 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: you know, improving the manufacturing process. Let's say I'm the 286 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 1: Atlanta Braves, I come to you, I say I need help. 287 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: You tell me great and tell people the story. Yeah. 288 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:30,000 Speaker 1: So you know, whether it's the Atlanta Braves, whether it's 289 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 1: a large public venue that has lots and lots of 290 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: users leveraging the network. What we allow a company like 291 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: the Atlanta Braves to do is to actually ask questions 292 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:43,400 Speaker 1: out of the data that's on their networks, right, ask 293 00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:46,879 Speaker 1: questions about, Hey, for this particular game or for this 294 00:17:46,960 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 1: particular time on the network, what were people actually doing, 295 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 1: all in an anonymised fashion, right. And so one of 296 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 1: the things with big data and data sciences, while there's 297 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,359 Speaker 1: a fair bit of insights to clean out of that data, 298 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 1: companies that enable that data transformation also have a big 299 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:07,159 Speaker 1: responsibility in terms of respecting sort of the privacy of 300 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 1: the users on their networks. And so for Atlanta Braves, 301 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 1: we give them the tools in order to sort of 302 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:13,880 Speaker 1: ask questions of the networks and also give a world 303 00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: class user experience off for their fans. Well done. Thanks 304 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 1: very much for being with us and giving us a 305 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:23,639 Speaker 1: look inside the world of analyzing data on Internet systems 306 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: that are Internet networks that are based inside of corporations. 307 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: Much appreciated. Aba h on Kuma. He is the chief 308 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: executive and the co founder of Nyanswa, joining us here 309 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 1: in our eleven three oh studios. I do want to 310 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: just get a note here in on emerging markets because 311 00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 1: the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index is now ropping today 312 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 1: for the biggest one day drop. It's the biggest since 313 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: March of last year. And our next guest has a 314 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 1: really interesting theory as to why. Dr Brendan Brown joins 315 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: US now chief economist and head of Economic research at 316 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: Mitsubishi u f J Securities. Dr Brown, so, how do 317 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 1: you interpret the weakness we've seen in emerging markets assets? 318 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:23,840 Speaker 1: Interpreted for the the emerging market weakness as being a first 319 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 1: sign of a credit cycle turning globally And you have 320 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 1: to remember that the emerging markets have been the absolute 321 00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: focal point of the credit inflation in this cycle. It's 322 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: been where the hunt for yield has been at its 323 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: greatest and where the various forms of financial engineering and 324 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 1: leverage have been the greatest. Okay, so this could be 325 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: sort of the canary in the coalbine that more than 326 00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,040 Speaker 1: a canary in a cor mine. Even the emerging market 327 00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: economies these days PPP exchange rates account for six world GDP, 328 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,399 Speaker 1: so so this was this could actually a signal a 329 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: real turning point. I'm just wondering how this relates to 330 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:10,199 Speaker 1: monetary policies, which, yes, the US is tightening um, but 331 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 1: the e c B is still holding on so well. 332 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 1: I would make a general observation that monetary normalization at 333 00:20:16,080 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: this point is a fiction. Even in the US, we 334 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: have interest rates well below rate of inflation, negative real 335 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 1: interest rates, So from a point of view of money 336 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:28,440 Speaker 1: supply from a central bank side of the equation, there 337 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: is really no normalization taking place. That maybe a bit 338 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,920 Speaker 1: less in the US and elsewhere, but monetary policy is 339 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,000 Speaker 1: still set at a pretty inflation redial. But there's another 340 00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 1: there's another dynamic in monetary policy, and that's what's happening 341 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: on the credit side. You can have for central bank 342 00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: still with their foot down on the accelerator, but if 343 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,200 Speaker 1: the credit cycle is turning, the accelerator doesn't work so well. 344 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: And may even actually not work at some point, and 345 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:55,800 Speaker 1: I think that's where we're approaching. Then, Okay, I'm just 346 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: going to do a brief list of, you know, supposedly 347 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: the problems in the world. Right, Okay, So you've got 348 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 1: the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the European Union. 349 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: They seem to be a mess. You have the political 350 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:13,159 Speaker 1: situation in Italy and the potential for some kind of 351 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: challenge to the European Union in the euro and Angela 352 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 1: Merkel in Germany facing political uh pressure. Um, you had 353 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: a change of government in Spain recently. You have the 354 00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: issues related to Venezuela and oil politics in the Middle East. 355 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:33,359 Speaker 1: I raise all of the trade wars in the United 356 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 1: States and NAFTA and child I raise all these things. 357 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:38,240 Speaker 1: At the same time, we haven't seen a big sell 358 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 1: off in stock prices, and I'm wondering why, well, stock 359 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 1: prices are not where this all starts. I mean, yes, 360 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: we can all talk about the bubble and the fangs 361 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,679 Speaker 1: or whatever, but either I think the core of the 362 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:56,439 Speaker 1: asset inflation process is in the credit markets. It's in 363 00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: the irrational strategies we see for leverage. It's in the 364 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 1: financial engine nearing, which camouflages believe ridge and that's that's 365 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,440 Speaker 1: where the irrational forces are. By the bye, you get 366 00:22:06,480 --> 00:22:08,679 Speaker 1: asset prices which may be too high, but that's not 367 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: where the unwinding starts, or it may and it may 368 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,719 Speaker 1: unwind at any time, I think. Just to take your 369 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 1: points about Europe, the key point to watch there is 370 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: that the mercle era is coming to an end and 371 00:22:21,000 --> 00:22:24,600 Speaker 1: Germany is almost certainly or know nothing certain in politics, 372 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,520 Speaker 1: but it's going to swing towards the right away from 373 00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 1: the center euro center and and and that presents a 374 00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: big change in the set of opportunities for Italy on 375 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,480 Speaker 1: the one hand, and also for the UK. And my 376 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: view in the UK and Brexit is that everyone will 377 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 1: remain quiet amongst the Brexiteers in the UK until Britain 378 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 1: is actually out of the door next March. But that's 379 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,920 Speaker 1: when the fun starts. But the fun will start, hopefully 380 00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: when Merkel is also going out for the door quite soon. 381 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: So you know, you're saying that the the the asset 382 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 1: inflation that's really most important is in the credit markets 383 00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,360 Speaker 1: are where you need to really focus. Um. A lot 384 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 1: of people have been looking to the U S HIG 385 00:23:01,880 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 1: yield bond market as the canary in the coal mine 386 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: of cracks forming in credit markets globally, and you just 387 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,119 Speaker 1: really haven't seen it. Why, what I would say was 388 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: two points there. Clearly in the US market, how yield 389 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:16,880 Speaker 1: is related to a price of equity, So if you're 390 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: still in the middle of a real bull market in equities, 391 00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 1: that sort of keeps for high yield market up. The 392 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 1: second point, which is more strange, is well, we're not 393 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: so strange, is that we had that volatility sell off 394 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 1: in February, but volatility is a way back down again. 395 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: I there is a key mathematical relationship, of course, which 396 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,439 Speaker 1: every quant will tell you between rising volatility and the 397 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: price of hw yuel bonds, so that that's an accident 398 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,199 Speaker 1: waiting to happen at some point in the future, but 399 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,120 Speaker 1: it's not happened yet. So I think for key pressures 400 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 1: have been on the emerging markets rather than on the 401 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,479 Speaker 1: US hi yield credit market. So do you think that 402 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:52,720 Speaker 1: people who are saying now is a time to pick 403 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 1: up extra yield go into emerging markets are fooling themselves 404 00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,880 Speaker 1: and that there's more pain ahead. Absolutely, I think the 405 00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: emerging markets situation is the center of the asset price 406 00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: deflation when it comes, and it almost certainly will go further. 407 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:09,080 Speaker 1: The question is how much contagion is going to be 408 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 1: onto other asset inflated markets. Give you about thirty seconds. 409 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 1: Trade wars and currency wars. Haven't heard much about currency wars, 410 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: have we, Which is sort of a big puzzle, because 411 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:23,679 Speaker 1: if you were advising President Trump, you would think a 412 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,360 Speaker 1: big point would now be being made about the manipulation 413 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: of currencies by Germany and Japan. After all, Japan sticking 414 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: long term interest rated zero with the economy at overheating, 415 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:39,280 Speaker 1: and Germany and easy b chief Draggy, who's fully backed 416 00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: by Bundas Bank and Chancellor Merkel keeping rates negative for 417 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 1: another eighteen months despite the German economy and boom. What 418 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: greater currency manipulation can you have? So it's very strange, 419 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: but this hasn't really a focal point of US trade negotiations. 420 00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,640 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Dr Brendan Brown is the chief 421 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:58,920 Speaker 1: economist and head of economic research for Mitsubishi u f 422 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: J Securities, also the author of the Global Monetary Plague, 423 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:11,639 Speaker 1: Asset price Inflation, and Federal Reserve Quantitative Easing. Thanks for 424 00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,360 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg p and L podcast. You can 425 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:18,199 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 426 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,719 Speaker 1: whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm on 427 00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 1: Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abramo. 428 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: It's one before the podcast. You can always catch us 429 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 1: worldwide on Bloomberg Radio