WEBVTT - What Are the Predictions for Hurricane Season 2021?

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to brain Stuff production of iHeart Radio. Hey brain Stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>Lauren bol Obam here. Hurricane season is already off to

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<v Speaker 1>a record start in the United States. At the time

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<v Speaker 1>of this recording, seven named storms have formed in the Atlantic,

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<v Speaker 1>including Hurricane Elsa, which became a hurricane on July two,

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<v Speaker 1>the earliest fifth named Atlantic hurricane since nineteen sixty six.

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<v Speaker 1>Elsa made landfall July seven in the Florida Panhandle as

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<v Speaker 1>a Category one storm. Now halfway through the hurricane season,

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<v Speaker 1>the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric

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<v Speaker 1>Administration or NOAH, released its annual mid season update on

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<v Speaker 1>August four, which suggests conditions are ripe for another above

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<v Speaker 1>average number of storms. The agency is predicting a busy,

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<v Speaker 1>though not record breaking season with fifteen to twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>named storms. That is, storms with winds of thirty nine

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<v Speaker 1>miles per hour or sixty two kilometers per hour or greater.

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<v Speaker 1>That includes seven to ten hurricanes, with three to five

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<v Speaker 1>of those likely to be Category three, four, or five.

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<v Speaker 1>The higher the category number, the higher the hurricanes winds,

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<v Speaker 1>and the more widespread and serious the damage is likely

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<v Speaker 1>to be. And this is up from noah's former predictions.

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<v Speaker 1>A meteorologists analyzed a mix of atmospheric and oceanic conditions

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<v Speaker 1>when updating the original forecast. In addition, in July, NOAH

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<v Speaker 1>declared a La Nina watch, which means there's a potential

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<v Speaker 1>for La Nina to develop during hurricane season. During a

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<v Speaker 1>news conference on August four, Matthew Rosencrans, Noah's lead hurricane

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<v Speaker 1>season forecaster, explained, quote La Nina occurs when there are

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<v Speaker 1>cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial region

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<v Speaker 1>of the Pacific Ocean, linked to weakening wind shear over

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<v Speaker 1>the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which favors more and

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<v Speaker 1>stronger Atlantic storms. A While conditions suggests that will be

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<v Speaker 1>a busy season, a Rosencranz said he doesn't believe it

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<v Speaker 1>will be as active as the record breaking season because

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<v Speaker 1>Atlantic sea surface temperatures aren't expected to be as warm

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<v Speaker 1>and so far are trending closer to average. Noah's update

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<v Speaker 1>to the outlook covers the entire six month hurricane season,

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<v Speaker 1>which runs from June one until November. The hurricane season

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<v Speaker 1>peaks in mid August through October. While NOAH and its

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<v Speaker 1>Climate Prediction Center are in charge of forecasts, it's the

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<v Speaker 1>National Hurricane Center that tracks storms that actually form and

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<v Speaker 1>predicts their paths, and the best track of a storm

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<v Speaker 1>can be made only about five to seven days out,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's why people living along the coast and in

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<v Speaker 1>low lying areas and regions prone to inland flooding need

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<v Speaker 1>to be prepared now. Rosencranz said, as we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>re and years, threats from hurricanes are not limited to

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<v Speaker 1>damaging winds, but also dangerous storm surge and torrential rain

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<v Speaker 1>and wind flooding. Everyone should know their hurricane risk, have

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<v Speaker 1>a plan, and be prepared for the upcoming core of

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<v Speaker 1>the season. National Weather Service Director Lewis W. Eutelini, PhD,

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<v Speaker 1>said in a press statement. Now is the time for

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<v Speaker 1>families and communities to ensure their preparations are in place.

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<v Speaker 1>These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all

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<v Speaker 1>possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following

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<v Speaker 1>safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.

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<v Speaker 1>These storms can be devastating, so be prepared for all

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<v Speaker 1>possible outcomes by staying tuned to the forecast and following

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<v Speaker 1>safety information and possible evacuation notifications issued by emergency officials.

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<v Speaker 1>Today's episode is based on the article Atlantic hurricane season

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<v Speaker 1>is about to get a second win on how stuff

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<v Speaker 1>works dot com. Written by Sarah Blind. Brain Stuff is

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<v Speaker 1>stuff works dot Com, and it is produced by Tyler Klein.

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