WEBVTT - Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 28, 2025 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:06.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:15.440 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 0:00:15.440 --> 0:00:18.680 with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.239 for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 0:00:22.400 --> 0:00:24.880 from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 0:00:24.920 --> 0:00:27.680 live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 0:00:27.680 --> 0:00:31.280 am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.919 anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:37.239 Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:39.959 with stock steady ahead of fresh inflation data at eight 0:00:40.040 --> 0:00:43.040 thirty Eastern time. Victoria Fanadez a Crossmark, writing, we have 0:00:43.159 --> 0:00:46.400 witnessed a definite shift from the animal spirits driving markets 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:48.080 to a new all time hire just a few weeks 0:00:48.080 --> 0:00:51.000 ago to now an increased probability of recession becoming the 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:54.400 topic of conversation. Victoria joined us now for more. Victoria, 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:57.680 welcome back. A week away from Liberation Day early next week. 0:00:57.720 --> 0:00:59.600 That's going to be the big focus for this market. 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.040 It feels like you've changed you a few on things. 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:02.960 What's changed? 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.679 Well, I think it's actually kind of what you guys 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.160 were talking about it's that sentiment of the consumer. 0:01:09.360 --> 0:01:10.920 When we look over the past year. 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:13.280 You know, we kept saying, there's so many red flags 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:15.160 that tell us we should be in a pullback, we 0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.920 should be in a recession, but the consumer. 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:18.440 Was always there. 0:01:18.480 --> 0:01:21.360 We talk about a FED put or a Trump put, 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:24.679 but really it was the consumer put for the longest. 0:01:24.240 --> 0:01:26.760 Period of time. That's what has changed. 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:29.039 Now we see the consumer and you guys have already 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:31.960 talked about it this morning, all those companies coming out 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.360 on their earnings on their conference calls talking about the 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:35.640 concern that they're seeing. 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:38.240 Lulu Women being the late latest example. 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:41.000 I mean, I thought my kids alone would help support 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:43.800 the numbers at Lulu Women with their purchases, but apparently 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:46.880 it is not enough, and the consumers are starting to 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:50.280 pull back, and you get in that negative feedback loop. 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:52.320 As the consumers start to. 0:01:52.240 --> 0:01:56.320 Pull back, revenues come down, margins start to get affected. 0:01:56.400 --> 0:01:59.960 What happens nine months after margins get affected, companies start 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:03.240 laying off. And we've seen that with the Challenger layoffs 0:02:03.440 --> 0:02:05.480 in the last month. And so I think it's that 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:09.320 consumer element that has changed that's giving us more concern, 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:11.840 especially with potentially more tariffs coming. 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:14.240 How much is this company's kitchen sinking it? Though you 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:17.840 mentioned Lululemon and your kids would single handedly cause this 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:19.880 shared to go up, But a lot of the kids 0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:22.120 are actually getting baggy stuff right now, and that was 0:02:22.160 --> 0:02:24.800 something they address that actually the styles are moving past 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:28.400 that sort of trademark legging spandex Look, I'm just wondering 0:02:28.680 --> 0:02:31.320 how do you parse through how significant the hit is 0:02:31.360 --> 0:02:33.640 and how big of a slowdown you have to price 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:35.000 into market expectations. 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:38.079 Yeah, I mean it's going to be different for every company, 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:40.639 and the companies that have been out there talking about 0:02:40.680 --> 0:02:43.680 the slowdown have been along a wide range. It's not 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:49.400 just apparel, right We saw Best Buy as one of those. Yes, 0:02:49.440 --> 0:02:52.480 there was Nike and Lululemon, but you see Walmart, which 0:02:52.520 --> 0:02:55.240 is a different cohort of a consumer. And I think 0:02:55.400 --> 0:02:58.720 part of the issue, Lisa, is that it's not just 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:02.640 the low incoming middle income consumer anymore. We've talked for 0:03:02.680 --> 0:03:04.919 the last year year and a half on that high 0:03:05.000 --> 0:03:08.799 income consumer really supporting that economy and continuing to spend. 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:12.560 Even if they shifted their spending habits they went maybe 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:17.120 from a higher element kind of store now shopping at Walmart. 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:18.480 We saw Walmart gain a lot of. 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:20.600 Share, but now they're talking about even the high end 0:03:21.120 --> 0:03:24.280 income consumer pulling back. So I think you have to 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:26.440 take that longer term approach and say, as we go 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:28.720 through this year and consumer start to pull back as 0:03:28.720 --> 0:03:31.760 they're worried about their jobs, and we see that in 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.639 the quits rate coming down, we see it with hiring 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:37.720 rates slowing. That's the element you have to look at 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:41.480 to determine what does growth look like if that consumer 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:43.120 engine is not there driving it. 0:03:43.240 --> 0:03:45.800 Peter Cheer earlier told Bloomberg TV that the US is 0:03:45.840 --> 0:03:49.119 trading kap trade flows for capital flows and the rest 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:50.720 of the world is going to outperform. 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:51.880 Do you look to the rest of. 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:54.760 The world ahead of Liberation Day because you're really unsure 0:03:54.800 --> 0:03:57.120 about what is going to happen here in the United States. 0:03:57.960 --> 0:03:59.320 Yeah, I think the rest of the world. 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.600 We've heard from plenty of leaders around the globe talking 0:04:02.640 --> 0:04:06.119 about the concerns and already trying to make steps beforehand. 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:08.160 We've seen it come out of India, We've seen it 0:04:08.160 --> 0:04:10.480 come out of some of the European countries, where what 0:04:10.560 --> 0:04:14.680 can we do and before the idea of reciprocal tariffs 0:04:14.680 --> 0:04:16.240 come to lower that rate. 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:19.520 What can we do to help our consumers. We saw 0:04:19.640 --> 0:04:21.760 inflation this morning. 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:23.800 Out of Europe actually come in lower than expected and 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:28.560 ECB rate cuts moving higher, So you have to, you know, 0:04:30.040 --> 0:04:32.080 look at it and see what are rates going to 0:04:32.160 --> 0:04:34.640 do between the two What does it look like on 0:04:34.720 --> 0:04:38.520 exchange rates? International has done much better because of the 0:04:38.560 --> 0:04:42.800 concept of growth continuing, especially in Europe with the steps 0:04:42.800 --> 0:04:44.320 that Germany has making in defense. 0:04:44.360 --> 0:04:46.360 But has some of that already run out? 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:49.880 Is that already priced in to the European market? So 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:51.880 I might wait for a little bit of a pullback 0:04:51.880 --> 0:04:54.800 on international before putting my toe on the water if 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.160 I haven't already, and let that consolidate a little bit 0:04:58.200 --> 0:04:58.920 before going there. 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:01.800 Victoria. This is not only headwind for markets. In fact, 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.400 that dominant headwind has been the pain trade, and the 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.880 pain trade's been TechEd so far in twenty twenty five. Stayside, 0:05:08.040 --> 0:05:09.920 Let's think about the shots that's been fired at tech 0:05:09.960 --> 0:05:12.520 over the last week or so. Reports that Microsoft is 0:05:12.520 --> 0:05:15.560 pulling back on data cent to spending, Ali Bamba firing 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:19.599 shots about over capacity and bubbles, and then overnight a 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:23.479 heavily downsized IPO from core Weave. How constrained is the 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:25.000 AI trade at the moment? 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:28.479 Yeah, I mean no one likes that word bubble, but 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:32.000 there is a lot of questions now going into hearing 0:05:32.160 --> 0:05:34.839 all of the money the KAPEC spends that people that 0:05:35.000 --> 0:05:38.320 companies are going to do in regards to AI. Seeing 0:05:38.320 --> 0:05:40.520 some of that pull back you mentioned Microsoft is a 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:43.560 perfect example of it, and what does that mean going forward? 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:46.640 I think, you know, look tech, as we went. 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:50.400 Into this correction, Tech had already pulled back. They haven't 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:54.320 become leadership during this correction period that we're in, So 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.279 I don't think we should look to tech to be 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:59.120 the leaders coming out of this correction. I think they're 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:02.000 going to continue to struggle because of some of the 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.680 headlines that you've mentioned. Maybe you start to look at 0:06:04.720 --> 0:06:09.440 some of the secondary companies that will benefit from productivity 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:13.320 enhancements from AI and not necessarily the tech names, the 0:06:13.400 --> 0:06:16.720 data warehouse components of it that people were really looking at. 0:06:16.880 --> 0:06:19.560 We've seen utility sector pull back a little bit as 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:22.279 well because of the headlines that you're mentioning. So I 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.000 think we continue to see some struggles in tech and 0:06:25.000 --> 0:06:28.000 you're probably going to have to look at places like healthcare, 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:32.839 maybe certain types of materials, financials. These are the sectors 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:35.000 I think that will lead us coming out of the 0:06:35.040 --> 0:06:35.960 correction that we're in. 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:37.440 That's where you should probably focus. 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:40.480 Can you walk us through how all of these prongs 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:44.640 of sentiment hits have translated into your view shift over 0:06:44.720 --> 0:06:47.000 how you should allocate your assets? And I ask this 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:49.479 at a time when gold is at recordize and people 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:51.640 aren't sure whether to go into bonds or whether to 0:06:51.680 --> 0:06:52.600 go into healthcare. 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:53.760 Yeah. 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:55.560 Well, I mean, look, you know you're talking to the 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.400 bond girl here, So I would always recommend having some 0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:02.200 bonds in your portfolio. People want to hedge what they're seeing, 0:07:02.760 --> 0:07:06.080 and when there's concerns around growth, gold is the hedge 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:09.320 that people go into when that's not the concern. When 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:11.640 growth is actually looking like it might pick up, then 0:07:11.680 --> 0:07:14.800 you see people go more into industrial metals or things 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:18.560 like copper. Copper's actually down this morning after having a 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:21.760 pretty good run, gold continues to move higher, so you 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:25.680 see there's that concern around growth. We look at centiment 0:07:25.920 --> 0:07:28.600 and it's always important to break cinniment down and say 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.800 what's driving that number? Is it the more volatile component 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:35.040 of centiment that's the expectations part, or is it the 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:39.360 present situation that's driving it. That's usually more focused on 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:43.440 jobs and fundamentals. We saw both elements come down in 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:47.000 the last sentiment numbers, so there is maybe a little 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:49.920 bit of support to that stagflation argument that people are 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:53.440 talking about as we have concerns around the growth component 0:07:53.760 --> 0:07:57.760 which supports gold, and still have concerns around inflation and 0:07:57.800 --> 0:07:59.920 how sticky that's going to be. Obviously we have pa 0:08:00.480 --> 0:08:03.080 later today, but I think you have to look at 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.480 sentiment and say this feeds into the story of a 0:08:06.520 --> 0:08:09.960 pullback of the consumer, pulling back of growth concerns, of 0:08:10.040 --> 0:08:13.160 GDP concerns at least in the first half of this year. 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:15.560 Since you're a bond girl, could you really say that 0:08:15.600 --> 0:08:17.720 bonds are going to have the same kind of a 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:21.200 buffering effect that they have traditionally at a time where 0:08:21.200 --> 0:08:23.360 inflation expectations are actually rising. 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:24.440 Yeah. 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:27.320 I don't think you're going to go into fixed income 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:29.880 right now and say, oh wow, spreads are going to tighten. 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:31.680 I'm going to get, you know, a. 0:08:31.600 --> 0:08:35.000 Lot of a price return coming out of that part 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.160 of the market. I don't think that's what you're going 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:39.720 into fixed income for right now, I think you're going 0:08:39.760 --> 0:08:42.559 into fixed income to lock in some steady cash flow 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:45.760 components in your portfolio. Some people may like to do 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:48.400 that with dividend payers in the equity market, but that's 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:50.640 a little more volatile. If you can lock in some 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:53.200 steady cash flow on the short end and the long 0:08:53.320 --> 0:08:55.520 end of the treasury curve, it gives you a little 0:08:55.520 --> 0:08:58.160 bit more buffer in your portfolio, as we think we're 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:01.160 going to continue to see volatility at least for the 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.480 next six months in the equity side. 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:03.840 Of the market. 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.520 Victoria, I appreciate your take on things going into the weekend. 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:19.280 Victoria Fernandez a crossmark Nvidia backed coal Weave, raising one 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.080 point five billion with a starting share price of forty 0:09:22.160 --> 0:09:24.280 The firm initially seeking to raise as much as two 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:26.920 point seven billion ahead of its first day of trading. 0:09:26.960 --> 0:09:30.000 Later on today, Angela Zino CFI eight joined us Now 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:31.960 for more. Angela, welcome to the program. What kind of 0:09:31.960 --> 0:09:34.640 signal do you take from this heavily discounted IPO. 0:09:35.960 --> 0:09:38.360 Well, you know, well, first off, thanks for having me. 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:40.040 But when we kind of look at this, I mean, 0:09:40.040 --> 0:09:42.520 we're not necessarily surprised by the discount here and I 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:45.520 don't think most of the market are necessarily surprised kind 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:47.840 of in light of recent events and what we've seen 0:09:47.880 --> 0:09:51.400 over the last couple of weeks from just overall sentiment 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:53.719 on the tech side of things just you know, really 0:09:53.800 --> 0:09:57.200 kind of going sour overall. You've got these tariff macro 0:09:57.320 --> 0:10:00.240 issues out there and the implications that they're having on 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:03.559 you know, tech. You've got these you know, obviously the 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.839 Deep Seek concerns out there and the implicated creations on 0:10:07.440 --> 0:10:09.440 the tech side of things there. I think also as 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:13.199 far as four Weave is concerned, specifically, when you kind 0:10:13.200 --> 0:10:15.600 of look at that business model and kind of, you know, 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:17.800 how they handle the financing side of things, kind of 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:21.959 being more of this kind of GPU infrastructure backed lending 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:24.920 type of company, I think that's a business model that 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:27.880 really doesn't kind of, you know, bode well with a 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:31.560 lot of investors out there, especially amidst a period where 0:10:31.720 --> 0:10:34.319 kind of the a, we've got a risk off trade 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:36.320 for AI right now. 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:38.600 It's a huge risk off trade and has been ever 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.400 since the Deep Seeks revelations. Angelo, So let's build on that. 0:10:41.600 --> 0:10:43.840 It's not just that Ali Papa out this week. The 0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:46.600 chairman came out and said maybe there's some other capacity, 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:48.679 perhaps even a bubble. Then we had a report from 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.360 td count that suggested Microsoft was pulling back from projects 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.880 in both the United States and in Europe too. It's 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:56.840 a question we asked earlier Angelo, just how constrained is 0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:57.880 this trade at the moment? 0:10:59.640 --> 0:11:01.400 Listen. I think when you kind of look at the 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:05.120 sentiment out there, I mean, it's it's pretty it's pretty negative. 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:08.160 I mean we kind of look at the hyperscalers out there, 0:11:08.200 --> 0:11:12.640 from the likes of Microsoft, Oracle, Metas out there declining 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:15.319 anywhere from fifteen to twenty five percent. When you kind 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:17.600 of look at the AI semi names out there, they've 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.280 kind of declined more notably, kind of in the twenty 0:11:20.320 --> 0:11:23.760 five to fifty percent range out there. So a lot 0:11:23.800 --> 0:11:26.880 of kind of the uncertainty out there whether it's kind 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:29.599 of what you alluded to as far as the Microsoft 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.200 situation is concerned. And I think that'll be the most 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:36.040 important event this earning season, is that earning's call from Microsoft. 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:38.640 We really need to hear from them, find out exactly 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.920 what their intent out there is. I Mean our view 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.400 is it partly has to do with that open AI 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:47.400 relationship as well, as the fact that hey, listen, maybe 0:11:47.440 --> 0:11:50.760 they're well and they will clearly articulately the fact that 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.440 they are going to shift more towards their server side 0:11:53.480 --> 0:11:55.959 of things and less towards the infrastructure side of things, 0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:57.800 which we think makes a lot of sense. We do 0:11:57.960 --> 0:12:01.160 like the Microsoft's trade at this point time, given the pullback, 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:03.600 but there's a lot of uncertainty as far as all 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:05.920 that is concerned out there. We think a little bit 0:12:06.000 --> 0:12:07.960 kind of to an extreme, and we do think a 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:09.719 lot of those valuations are kind of baking some of 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:10.920 that stuff into it. 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:13.199 To build on that. I'm kind of whipsid here because 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:14.880 it was just a couple months ago that we had 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:18.319 people on here who are saying that truly these hyperscalers 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.920 can't invest enough in infrastructure, and that frankly, the energy 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:25.440 system and the infrastructure currently out there is nowhere near 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.360 what's necessary for the AI build out as people imagine it. 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.480 So which is it? How do you understand how much 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.520 what we're hearing from China is fact versus fiction in 0:12:34.600 --> 0:12:38.760 terms of just how much technological advances transforms that story. 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.280 Yeah, No, I think that's a great question, And I 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:43.560 don't know if there's an actual way to answer that, 0:12:43.600 --> 0:12:45.480 to be honest with you, But when we kind of 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:47.520 look at it, right, I think deep Seak did change 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.720 things more than people kind of want to acknowledge out there. 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:53.280 I think you kind of take a look at China, 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:56.600 look at the efficiencies that they've kind of accomplished on 0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:59.400 their end of things, and then you kind of look 0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:01.440 at what's happening in the US, and I think kind 0:13:01.440 --> 0:13:03.400 of that's the bigger issue out there, because if you 0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:05.440 kind of look at the pace that these kind of 0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:09.240 hyperscalers are investing at and now at a point in 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:12.160 time right where we do have these tariff concerns out there, 0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:14.880 we do have those growth concerns out there at a 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.440 point where we could potentially see some pressures on the 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:20.440 top line, whether you know, come from some deceleration on 0:13:20.480 --> 0:13:22.520 the cloud side of things, whether it be you know, 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:26.280 some challenges on the digital ads side of things that 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:30.200 puts pressure kind of on these hyperscalers out there. Not 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.280 to mention, these tariffs out there also increase the cost 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:36.559 of kind of installing these servers out there, So these 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.120 these hyperscalers are going to have to, you know, look 0:13:40.160 --> 0:13:42.920 to be a little bit more efficient in nature and 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.040 in many cases, what we've seen here over the last 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:47.080 couple of months is really going to force them to 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:48.040 do that is core. 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:50.680 We have a litmus test for other potential companies that 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:53.240 want to IPO this year in the tech space or 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.280 is it idiosyncratic and I hate to use that word, 0:13:56.400 --> 0:14:00.520 but special because of its connection particularly to some of 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:03.080 these areas that are part of the peak uncertainty. 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.920 Yeah, I mean we personally wouldn't be using them as 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:10.440 a benchmark for other potential tech IPOs and other IPOs 0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:12.920 in the market out there. Again, this isn't the name 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:15.800 that we would potentially or would like to see us 0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.040 kind of that first name being thrown out there in 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:20.920 this tech IPO market kind of you know, since the 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.680 Trump administration has taken over. But that said, this is 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.520 what we've got out there. It is going to be 0:14:27.520 --> 0:14:29.320 somewhat of a test out there. We'll see what the 0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.280 sentiment looks like. But in our view, no, it shouldn't 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:35.600 kind of be used as kind of this test longer 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.040 term or over the next nine to twelve months in 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.880 terms of, you know, what the sentiment looks like for 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:42.200 tech longer term. 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:46.640 So Angela for you, right, now to pick what is it. 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.120 It's a great question. We've told investors over the last 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:53.680 couple of months to continue to shift towards software over semiconductors. Now, 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.680 you know, we'd acknowledge that neither side have really kind 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:59.000 of worked that well, but we'd say the lesser of 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.200 both evils. Right now, I was still on the software 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:03.880 side of things. We remain believers kind of on the 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:05.840 side of things where you are going to see more 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.240 M and A on that side of things. We also 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:10.640 believe that kind of the fundamentals are also going to 0:15:10.680 --> 0:15:13.760 hold better up better on the software side of things. 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:17.120 And for us, a name like Microsoft that these levels 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.680 is a name that I feel pretty confident recommending to investors. 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:23.000 I think Salesforce is another name which has seen a 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.440 notable pick pullback as well, which is a name you 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:27.000 can kind of be looking at at these levels. 0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:29.320 Angela, I appreciate the input as always, Thank you, sir. 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:31.760 I have a good weekend, Angela. Zina There of CFL 0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:44.200 Rating Center. Republicans working on changes to the House GOP 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:47.400 tax plan looking to require few accounts in Medicaid benefits 0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:50.080 for the poor and disabled. The move aiming to appease 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:53.200 members of the party worried about public backlash, and please 0:15:53.240 --> 0:15:54.960 decide the good friend of this program, a good friend 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:57.560 of ours. The Congressman from Arkansas French Hill, joins us 0:15:57.560 --> 0:15:59.320 now for more. Congressman, good to see you, Sir. 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:03.280 Jonathan with you and Lisa and Anne Marie always going 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:04.120 to be back in New York? 0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:05.800 Is it tennangasp be as much fun as you thought 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:08.720 it would be? Don in Washington every day is a 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:11.560 joy eight pril Second, how much of a joy is that? 0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:11.920 Can it be? 0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:14.240 I'm just glad it's not April first, because that would 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:16.040 even increase even more. 0:16:16.400 --> 0:16:18.920 Actually, what are your constituents telling you about what's hanniganaw 0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:19.880 counsaw on the ground. 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:24.480 Yeah, look on the relations to tariffs. About thirty percent 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:28.360 of our output in Arkansas goes to Mexico or Canada, 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:31.840 and that's food and manufactured goods and back and forth. 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.200 And then you have the North American Free Trade Agreement 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:38.320 now under USMCA that was crafted to make North America 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:42.360 the destination for manufacturing. So for thirty years it's been 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:46.360 knitted together. And so I think the first thing that 0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.960 I'm hearing is certainty and just lay out the plan 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:51.880 on how you want to use tariffs to open up 0:16:51.880 --> 0:16:54.960 more markets for Americans, have reciprocity on fairness and certain 0:16:54.960 --> 0:17:00.960 markets that are highly disportionate disportionate treatment like for example. 0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:07.960 But when it comes to North America, let's renegotiate USMCA. 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:12.280 If you want to limit certain inputs from China into Canada, 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:14.399 Mexico or the United States, you can do that in 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:17.679 the agreement. Those countries can do that on an input basis. 0:17:17.680 --> 0:17:20.680 If you want to have the American manufactured content higher, 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:24.320 you could negotiate to do that, as President Trump successfully 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:28.160 did last time he was president on the North American 0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:31.480 auto content. He got more American content. So I think 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:36.000 it's best to tackle this Canadian and Mexican issue inside 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:37.920 a new and revised USMCA. 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:41.080 But USMCA was done under Trump. It replaced NAFTA, So 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.960 you want USMCA. Part two is do you think that's 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:46.480 what he's getting at Donald Trump? Here, the president he's 0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.520 getting at the start bringing those twenty twenty six talks 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:51.160 up into the mid twenty twenty five. 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:54.240 Yeah, potentially, And I think that's not wrong thinking on 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:58.560 his part. If you're concerned about Chinese dumping through transshipment 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:02.240 of steel, for example, or Mexico. Let's deal with that 0:18:02.400 --> 0:18:05.399 inside the agreement. Let's have Mexico deal with that in 0:18:05.440 --> 0:18:08.680 their own trade policy on inputs coming into the country. 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:12.320 Because at the same that's how I think you have 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:16.280 a more robust, competitive international system where manufacturing is at 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:18.760 the heart of America. I think President Trump strategically in 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:21.359 trade diplomacy, I'd like to see more things made in 0:18:21.400 --> 0:18:26.560 America that takes time to do. It's not overnight. We 0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:28.920 had steal an aluminum terraffs, you know, for the past 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:32.880 five or six years, and they haven't you been overnight 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:34.800 changes across the board. 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:37.200 Walmart is headquartered in your state. They went to China 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:39.159 and said, look, we're dealing with tariffs. You're going to 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:40.679 have to eat some of this costs. And the Chinese 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:42.800 are saying, no, are you concerned about the cost being 0:18:42.840 --> 0:18:44.000 passed on to consumers? 0:18:44.800 --> 0:18:47.159 I am when I don't know what the strategy is. 0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:50.080 This is the whole point. You have trade diplomacy on 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:54.000 using trade as a sanctioned potential, like you saw the 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:58.760 President do on Columbia on repatriation of immigrants. You had 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:03.600 trade used for prosty to bring down actual barriers benefit 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:06.320 actually both countries potentially over time, and we did that 0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:10.240 successfully for forty years. We did it targeted when I 0:19:10.320 --> 0:19:13.560 was in the White House working during the Bush administration. 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:17.800 We use Section three oh one to target bad activities 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:22.280 by the principally then Japan to open those markets doing 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:26.280 this kind of terriff activity and limitation on imports to 0:19:26.359 --> 0:19:29.320 the US. So you can do that in a classic 0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:33.359 trade diplomacy situation. But when you have across the board 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:36.240 and not clear on what the timeframe is for the 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:39.240