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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty twenty five

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Speaker 1: fifty and the kick is his black.

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Speaker 3: Look Comic Football World stund Oh my goodness, he's stumbled and.

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Speaker 2: Fumble the lateral to the core on the inside. Do

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Speaker 2: you believe that I take them up the fail the night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the side of the dog in the fight,

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Speaker 3: it's the size of the fight in the room.

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Speaker 2: What's up the generate nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: This is the Week eight college football betting preview. I'm

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Speaker 2: stuck in with me as always is Colin Wilson. You

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Speaker 2: over the that card South Alabama loss from last.

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Speaker 3: Night, looking at this Saturday card, and I'm wondering the

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Speaker 3: next time I'm gonna get Cephis Johnson.

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Speaker 2: That throw that he threw to the to the sideline

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Speaker 2: and then for a pick six, the goal to go situations,

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Speaker 2: the drive where you know Troy just went down the

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Speaker 2: field and scored a touchdown, and then South I've I have

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Speaker 2: had just no interest in scoring running dives and fumble

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Speaker 2: just your typical fun belt weekday Dog we'll have many

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Speaker 2: more of those.

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Speaker 3: Don't let the latest come between you and the belt.

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Speaker 2: We have more weekday football that we both like on

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Speaker 2: Friday Night, which we'll get to later in the show,

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Speaker 2: as well as the marquee games of the weekend. There's

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Speaker 2: a few we'll also go through each conference. As we

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Speaker 2: do each week, we'll hit on a game or two

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Speaker 2: that peaks our interest. But first, as we do each week,

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Speaker 2: let's start with look ahead or look.

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Speaker 3: Away hangovers, sleepers, and the dread and sandwich spot. Is

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Speaker 3: it time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: For those not familiar, this is when we look at

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Speaker 2: next week slate and try to determine if there's any

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Speaker 2: betting value or angles worth considering for this week's slate.

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Speaker 2: So you know, if the team has a big game

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Speaker 2: on deck, they might be looking ahead. Lack of prep

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Speaker 2: this week, they might pull their starters earlier. There's a

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Speaker 2: few big games next weekend that are worth considering too,

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Speaker 2: in particular, which we'll cover here, the first of which

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Speaker 2: is Ohio State Wisconsin. Just an enormous game next weekend.

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Speaker 2: But before that happens, we have this week where Wisconsin

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Speaker 2: goes to Champagne. Your favorite team Wisconsin is thirty one

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Speaker 2: point favorites. Like I said in Ohio State on deck,

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Speaker 2: there's probably no reason to blow this out. There might

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Speaker 2: be some rain in the forecast. This line seems really steep.

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Speaker 2: But you know, unless Wisconsin's playing the voodoo of Northwestern,

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Speaker 2: they just seem to be blowing out all of these

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Speaker 2: bad teams. Wisconsin's giving up four point eight points per game,

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Speaker 2: that leads the nation. Penn State's next one eight point two.

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Speaker 2: Their defense has been excellent at every level. Jonathan Taylor

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Speaker 2: obviously in that offensive line, but this line seems like

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Speaker 2: it's out of hand. You're gonna make me play Illinois,

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Speaker 2: aren't you.

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Speaker 3: Once I got to thirty one and a half, I said, okay,

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Speaker 3: come on, this is ridiculous. I have to do this.

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Speaker 3: So the number that I have is, you know, it's

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Speaker 3: just assume there's no look ahead, and let's sume Illinois

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Speaker 3: knew how to defend the run. The true pure number

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Speaker 3: against the power rating is twenty four and a half.

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Speaker 3: And I'm not alone there. That's the number that I

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Speaker 3: set this game out. I know sp plus has this

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Speaker 3: at twenty four. I know even ESPNFPI if you follow that,

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Speaker 3: they have this game at twenty nobody has thirty one

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Speaker 3: and a half. It's so overinflated it's crazy. But when

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Speaker 3: you get into the numbers, Illinois one hundred and seventeenth

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Speaker 3: and defending opponent rushes over twenty yards, So Wisconsin's going

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Speaker 3: to be able to run at will. They might as

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Speaker 3: well just roll a red carpet through the middle of

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Speaker 3: the fight in a lion I defense and just let

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Speaker 3: Jonathan Taylor walk right on through, because it's going to

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Speaker 3: be probably that easy. I will say that both teams

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Speaker 3: ranked top thirty in HAVOC, but Illinois offensive line and

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Speaker 3: just offensive general there are one hundred and twelve and

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Speaker 3: havoc allowed just no ball protection. If you're watching an

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Speaker 3: Illinois game, the ball is everywhere. I mean, Wisconsin can

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Speaker 3: name it. It's completely overinflated. Illinois is going to make

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Speaker 3: me play them. It's going to be a minimal amount

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Speaker 3: of money, but I mean the numbers just outrageous.

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Speaker 2: Well think about it. Wisconsin a couple weeks ago was

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Speaker 2: a thirty five point home favorite against Kent State. Now

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Speaker 2: they're a thirty one point favorite against Illinois on the road.

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Speaker 2: So this line is assuming you know, obviously you have

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Speaker 2: adjustments in Wisconsin rolled Michigan State, but just on the surface,

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Speaker 2: take it for what it is. This sign is assuming

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Speaker 2: Kent State and Illinois are equal, and I believe that.

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Speaker 3: If you wanted me to go through like the power

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Speaker 3: ratings real quick, I mean, I think I would make

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Speaker 3: Illinois about a thirteen point favorite on a neutral maybe more.

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Speaker 3: Not the numbers bad now.

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Speaker 2: I said, we'll get to the Friday night's s late later,

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Speaker 2: and we will, but we'll cover one of the Friday

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Speaker 2: night games now because it fits the bill here Ohio

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Speaker 2: State Wisconsin next week in Ohio State first as a

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Speaker 2: Friday night game in Evanston. I think it's a blackout.

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Speaker 2: I think Northwestern's gonna have the all black uniforms. Maybe

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Speaker 2: it'll help with the Northwestern Voodoo Pats Cats. But the

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Speaker 2: Northwestern team is hilarious to me because their defense is

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Speaker 2: playing really well. They don't give up any explosive plays.

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Speaker 2: They give up two pass plays of thirty plus yards

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Speaker 2: only ucfs allowed fewer four runs of twenty plus yards.

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Speaker 2: That's top twenty nationally, so that'll help against Dobbins. And

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Speaker 2: the defense is really good. They're The funny thing is

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Speaker 2: like if you look at their sm P ratings. They're

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Speaker 2: rated fifth on defense and one hundred and twenty fourth

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Speaker 2: on offense. That is the biggest gap of any team

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Speaker 2: since drum Roll twenty fifteen Northwestern. The offense is so

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Speaker 2: fucking bad it's hard to describe. I mean, they average

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Speaker 2: three point nine yards per play. That's dead last in

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Speaker 2: college football. We're talking about a data set that includes

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Speaker 2: U Mass and Akron averaging fourteen point four points per game,

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Speaker 2: the third fewest. The only two teams averaging few are

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Speaker 2: Akron and Rutgers, two teams that have one combined win

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Speaker 2: over UMass and U Mess also beat one of them.

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Speaker 2: So the offense is just so bad. This number seems

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Speaker 2: too high. Pat Fitzgerald has been awesome as a double

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Speaker 2: digit dog. He always gets his teams to overperform. He's

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Speaker 2: eleven to three to one as a double digit dog

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Speaker 2: in his last fifteen games since twenty fourteen. Of those

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Speaker 2: fifteen games, he six outright wins. And you know, maybe

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Speaker 2: Ohio State pulls their starters, maybe they're caught looking ahead,

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Speaker 2: but the talent different. It is so big here, and

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Speaker 2: the Ohio State defense is so good at all three levels.

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Speaker 2: I don't know all the Northwestern scores without voodoo. So

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Speaker 2: while I think the line is a little high, I

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Speaker 2: don't know if I want to get in front of

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Speaker 2: this Ohio State train which has burned me a couple

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Speaker 2: times and ran me over already this year. What are

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Speaker 2: your thoughts here.

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Speaker 3: I don't think this is a well you got to

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Speaker 3: take the points because it's too high. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: make it twenty six and a half, so it's not

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Speaker 3: too far off. But I mean I'll run over a

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Speaker 3: couple of statistics and then I'll tell you what conspiracy

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Speaker 3: calling things. I mean, the Northwestern ofference is one hundred

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Speaker 3: and sixteenth in havoc allowed. That's really bad against this

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Speaker 3: Ohio State defense, who's second in havoc. Wildcats are one

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty eighth in red zone points per attempt.

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Speaker 3: They're one of the worst teams in the nation. Come

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Speaker 3: away from the red zone points, they're one hundred and

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Speaker 3: nineteenth and punning. There are one hundred and ninth and

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Speaker 3: third down conversions. Then numbers are bad. They're bad every

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Speaker 3: year with Northwestern. It sucks us in the statistical analysis

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Speaker 3: that we do every year. It sucks us in and

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Speaker 3: then Pat Fitzgerald makes us pay for it because they've

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Speaker 3: always been one of the worst teams in second order

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Speaker 3: win totals. I will say this, they are fourteenth in

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Speaker 3: defending explosive passing. But that's what we got caught up

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Speaker 3: into last year the Big Ten Championship game, and there

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Speaker 3: was a front door cover from Ohio State there at

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Speaker 3: the end of the game. Power rating me is going

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Speaker 3: to say twenty eight is too much situational. Collin is

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Speaker 3: going to tell you that the Ohio States got Wisconsin

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Speaker 3: on deck and Ryan Day may not run one play

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Speaker 3: that's not already on tape, why wou'd he run anything

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Speaker 3: new at any new scheme? Conspiracy me is going to

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Speaker 3: tell you that the Ryan Field ground crew is growing

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Speaker 3: the grass out as long as they possibly can to

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Speaker 3: slow down the Buckeye's attack. But to me, I mean,

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Speaker 3: at the end of the day, I'm going to take

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Speaker 3: a first half over twenty seven, and then I'm going

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Speaker 3: to take a second half Northwestern and an under. So

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Speaker 3: the basis behind that is Ohio States score at least

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Speaker 3: twenty seven points in the first half of every game

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Speaker 3: they've played. The first half over in this game is

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Speaker 3: twenty seven. Ohio State's been able to do that against

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Speaker 3: every opponent. Hey, we get a Northwestern defensive TD thrown

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Speaker 3: in there, or if they luck out and get something

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Speaker 3: down the field and get some points, get a field

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Speaker 3: goal on the board, great, that helps us out. But

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Speaker 3: I'm going first half over. And then if you take

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Speaker 3: a look at some of Northwestern's box scores, their best quarter,

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Speaker 3: Fitzgerald's best quarter has been the third quarter. They haven't.

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Speaker 3: I think they. I think if you take out Michigan

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Speaker 3: State's ten points, Northwestern is only allowed seven points to UNLV, Stanford, Nebraska,

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Speaker 3: and Wisconsin. When I say second half Northwestern, what I

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Speaker 3: really mean is if Northwestern is going to get the

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Speaker 3: ball to start the second half and they have the

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Speaker 3: last drive of the of the first half in the

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Speaker 3: second quarter, I'm gonna play it live. Obviously, if they

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Speaker 3: get two offensive possessions in a row, I'm gonna play

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Speaker 3: them live. If they don't, then I'm gonna play Northwestern

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Speaker 3: in the second half, and I'm just gonna play the

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Speaker 3: under because I fully expect Ohio State to sit on

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Speaker 3: the ball, and I think that's when Pat Bitserlier get

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Speaker 3: his adjustments in place and come out fired up and

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Speaker 3: cover a second half number.

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Speaker 2: You basically read my mind and in our right up

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Speaker 2: for this game, which we'll have that on the Action

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Speaker 2: app in Action network dot Com. We'll have them for

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Speaker 2: all the weekday games as we always do. I've just

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Speaker 2: said the same thing I said, Look, if you want

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Speaker 2: to play Northwestern, and I may do this, you have

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Speaker 2: to play them live or in the second half. Especially

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Speaker 2: if this gets just way out of hand. Ohio State's

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Speaker 2: just gonna sit on it. They're gonna pull their starters,

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Speaker 2: worry about health, worry about next week. So that's the

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Speaker 2: way to go about this, even though the numbers inflated.

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Speaker 2: I want no part of Northwestern pregame, right, So let's

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Speaker 2: move on here. The other big game next weekend is

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Speaker 2: LSU and Auburn. Before then, they are both going on

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Speaker 2: the road. We're gonna start with your boys. It's time

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Speaker 2: for you to lie to me loud of me. It's

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Speaker 2: up to I think nineteen nineteen and a half Auburn

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Speaker 2: is nineteen nineteen and a half point favorites at Arkansas

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Speaker 2: and Fayetteville. I know I don't really need to go

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Speaker 2: too much into the numbers here or my thoughts, because

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Speaker 2: you know you're an Arkansas fan. Alum, you pretty much

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Speaker 2: always nail their games. I trust your your word pretty

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Speaker 2: blindly on the Hogs here, we do know that Auburn

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Speaker 2: is coming off of a buy after that Florida loss

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Speaker 2: with LSU on deck. But Gus takes this game personally.

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Speaker 2: You think Auburn rolls and doesn't have any look ahead.

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Speaker 3: Here woo pig suy absolute dumpster fire, dumpster fine. I

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Speaker 3: don't know how we win a game the rest of

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Speaker 3: the year. Program up. Give us a death sentence Collins

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Speaker 3: talking razorback football. Yeah, Gus takes this game very personally,

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Speaker 3: and I think that they want to what you and

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Speaker 3: I call get healthy after you know, coming off the

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Speaker 3: buy and having all that time off and taking a

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Speaker 3: loss into the buy. Especially, I think bo Nix wants

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Speaker 3: to further his transformation into throwing downfield being instead of

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Speaker 3: you know, thrown out to the flats all the time,

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Speaker 3: the full effect. It's a perfect defense to do it

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Speaker 3: against so many misassignments in the secondary by Arkansas. But

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Speaker 3: I go back to the whole thing. Is it is

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Speaker 3: it a number that's inflated? Yes, it is against a

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Speaker 3: power rating. I make it sixteen and a half. So

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Speaker 3: at nineteen I don't think it's going to stop. It's

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Speaker 3: probably gonna get up to twenty one. But Gus Bilson

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Speaker 3: uses this as his platform every year to build a

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Speaker 3: bigger buy out and to build a bigger annual salary.

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Speaker 3: People don't understand that anytime Gus is in trouble at Auburn,

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Speaker 3: Arkansas is waiting with one hundred million dollar contract just

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Speaker 3: dying for him to come back home. Gus is originally

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Speaker 3: from He coached at Shiloh Christian High School, then Springdale

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Speaker 3: High School, and he was Arkansas's offensive coordinator. If you

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Speaker 3: don't know all of that entire spiel, it's anything that

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Speaker 3: anyone comes from Arkansas ever talks about. Gus Mauson is

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Speaker 3: our dream. So he uses this game to really kind

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Speaker 3: of play both sides and he runs up to score.

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Speaker 3: If you look at what we've scored against Gus the

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Speaker 3: last three years, three last year, twenty the year before,

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Speaker 3: and three the year before that, if the defense can

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Speaker 3: pitch a shutout, he's obviously going to do it. So

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Speaker 3: we talked last week about Arkansas being one of the

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Speaker 3: worst teams in the nation in red zone scoring. That

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Speaker 3: didn't change against Kentucky. I mean they got some points

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Speaker 3: up on the board, but they are still bottom five

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Speaker 3: in the country in red zone scoring. Auburn's defense is

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Speaker 3: ninth in opponent red zone points per attempt and tenth

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Speaker 3: in opponent red zone scoring. I wouldn't be shocked to

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Speaker 3: see Arkansas either get shut out or have a score

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Speaker 3: less than seven points.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough, there's your hog report from Colin. The other

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Speaker 2: game that we have to talk about here is obviously

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Speaker 2: the other side of the coin with LSU. So before

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Speaker 2: that game, they're coming off this is a big time

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Speaker 2: sandwich spot for us. You're coming off that win against Florida,

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Speaker 2: classic sandwich.

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Speaker 3: We sure have a lot sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches.

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Speaker 2: And then you know they have Auburn on deck. But

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Speaker 2: before that, they go to Stark Vegas in a really

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Speaker 2: interesting game, a really interesting line in that I think

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Speaker 2: I've seen it ticked down to seventeen. Ilis he was

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Speaker 2: a seventeen point favorite here at Mississippi State, and Mississippi

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Speaker 2: State has just looked dreadful. Their defense is dreadful, their

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Speaker 2: offenses lost. They're multiple quarterbacks each quarter. You don't know

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Speaker 2: who's going to play quarterback. Although I think Trader is

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Speaker 2: going to play this week. Mississippi State's coming off of

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Speaker 2: loss as a road favorite at Tennessee, and that was

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Speaker 2: off of a bye. By the way, the game before that,

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Speaker 2: they got trucked by Auburn. Let bow Nicks go absolutely nuts.

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Speaker 2: And we've seen what bo Nicks did against Florida. Well,

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Speaker 2: against Mississippi State, bo Nix looked like Montana. They also

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Speaker 2: lost at home to Kansas State. I mean, this team

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Speaker 2: has just been a mess. There's articles coming out on

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Speaker 2: NJ dot com about all right, what is what would

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Speaker 2: it cost to buy out Joe Moorehead. I don't know

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Speaker 2: if Morehead has lost the team or what's going on

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Speaker 2: with Morehead down there in Starkville. Imagine the crowd is

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Speaker 2: going to be up for it LSU. It's a terrible

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Speaker 2: situational spot. But I haven't seen anything from Mississippi State

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Speaker 2: to give me any confidence of wanting to back them

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Speaker 2: against this super explosive LSU team. I mean, this offense

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Speaker 2: is for real. What do you think here? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I think moread Things are starting to get personal because

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Speaker 3: after the game last week, he talked about how people

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Speaker 3: were yelling at his freshman daughter. The crowd was yelling

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Speaker 3: at his freshman daughter about how you suck and your

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Speaker 3: dad sucks and everything sucks and sucks, suck, sucks, and

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Speaker 3: then Joe Moorehead ended that story by saying, I did suck.

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Speaker 2: I do suck.

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Speaker 3: It wasn't a typical postgame comments coming out of Joe

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Speaker 3: Morehead this past week. And I think things are getting

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Speaker 3: pretty bad. And now I'm starting to see some players

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Speaker 3: transfer out of the program, So I'm not really sure,

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Speaker 3: like from the inside out, from the places that we

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Speaker 3: can't see, I think things are pretty unhappy. And I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure if that applies to Joe Morehead and himself

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Speaker 3: and what he's thinking about what he's got himself into.

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Speaker 3: On the other hand, you write LSUI there is look ahead,

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Speaker 3: but at the same time, I'm not sure LSU is

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Speaker 3: the kind of team that wants to take a week

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Speaker 3: off offensively. I think they want to be firing on

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Speaker 3: all cylinders at all time. I'm not advocating that, you know,

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Speaker 3: over sixty two is a good play, because I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure Ifsissippi State can put up their share. LSU's defense

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Speaker 3: has heard everybody, all of us, talking about how they're

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Speaker 3: giving up too many points. Giving up too many drives

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Speaker 3: with Florida given up too many points to Texas, given

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Speaker 3: up thirty something to Vanderbilt. I think that's been a

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Speaker 3: point of emphasis this week and they've heard about it.

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Speaker 3: So I can't suggest an over here. But at the

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Speaker 3: same time, I can't support Mississippi State, so officially it's

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Speaker 3: a no play. If I had to put some money

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Speaker 3: down somewhere, it'll probably be on just an LSU team

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Speaker 3: total over.

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Speaker 1: I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I

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Speaker 1: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

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Speaker 1: podcast network. Locked On has a daily podcast on your

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Speaker 1: favorite team.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: You are locked onwn of the Dallas Matrick. We can

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Speaker 2: everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast. Let's Go.

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Speaker 1: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

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Speaker 1: know your team better than anyone and give you the

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Speaker 1: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

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Speaker 1: locked On your favorite team subscribe to your locked on podcast.

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Speaker 2: Fair enough? All right, let's move on to the Week

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Speaker 2: eight slate by conference will start in the ACC cover

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Speaker 2: off a few games here. We'll start with Louisville Clemson,

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Speaker 2: Clemson right around twenty four point favorite at Louisville. You know,

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Speaker 2: Clemson did come out after the buy and they throttled

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Speaker 2: and covered against Florida State. But look, they have you know,

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Speaker 2: Louisville this week. They have Boston College at home next week,

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Speaker 2: and then they play Wafford at home, Wolford, Wafford, whatever

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Speaker 2: you want to say, Colin, and then they're you know,

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Speaker 2: NC State and home against Wake. Then they're at South Carolina,

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Speaker 2: which maybe it could be interesting from what we see,

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Speaker 2: but I mean, do they go back into sleep mode here?

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Speaker 2: What has been wrong with Clemson? I mean, they haven't played,

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Speaker 2: they won every game, they just haven't looked as impressively.

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Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence hasn't looked as good. So I was reading

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Speaker 2: a lot of you know, looking into some of their games,

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Speaker 2: reading a lot of Clemson message boards, and it seems

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Speaker 2: to just really miss renfro On. Like third downs, he

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Speaker 2: was just always getting open, and he was such a

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Speaker 2: safety blanket for Lawrence, who now has to you know,

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Speaker 2: instead of that, he's forcing more balls down field, you know,

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Speaker 2: more of them are ending up in hicks and do

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Speaker 2: oring completions and ending drives, and their offense just isn't

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Speaker 2: as explosive. Their defense amazingly. You gotta give credit to

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Speaker 2: the edibles has been awesome. They lost seven starters, they

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Speaker 2: switched to a three three five, completely changed their scheme

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Speaker 2: sometimes three two six, and their defense has been awesome.

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Speaker 2: It's a matter of ken Louisville run the ball on

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Speaker 2: this defense. I mean, they haven't played a ton of

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Speaker 2: good offenses, but the defense still looks solid as always

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Speaker 2: what you would expect from Venables. What do you see

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Speaker 2: here with Louisville Clemson.

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Speaker 3: I think there may be a chance for Louisville to

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Speaker 3: have a little bit of success running the ball. So

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Speaker 3: Louisville is now tenth in rush explosiveness. That number shocked me. Now,

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Speaker 3: I know that we saw the huge yards with the

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Speaker 3: Wake Forest game, Notre Dame game too. I mean that's

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Speaker 3: the reason why, you know, a lot of points were

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Speaker 3: scored there and Notre Dame had to sweat that one

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Speaker 3: a little bit. Now, Clemson's got pretty good success rate

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Speaker 3: against the rush, but if you look into things like

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Speaker 3: on football outsiders like they're thirty second in line yards

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Speaker 3: on defense, they're sixty first and stuff rate defensively, which

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Speaker 3: surprises me. You're not stopping the runner before the line

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Speaker 3: of scrimmage. So I think Louisvill's at least gonna be

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Speaker 3: able to hit the line of scrimmage and they may

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Speaker 3: be off running. I think it's gonna be some success

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Speaker 3: here with Louisville running the ball. Now, can you beat

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Speaker 3: Clemson with just a running attack? Probably not. I mean

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Speaker 3: can you cover the spread? Probably, especially if Clemson is

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Speaker 3: happy with what happened against Florida State and they go

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Speaker 3: back into sleep mode this week. So I'm not rushing

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Speaker 3: to play Louisville, and I definitely want the twenty four

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Speaker 3: and a half, but it's definitely decided that I'm looking on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sure Sadderfield will have a couple things up

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Speaker 2: as sleeve for this game. They can't get too far

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Speaker 2: behind early is the key in this game. Another game

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Speaker 2: of the a SEC that we want to check off

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Speaker 2: is Florida State and wake Forest. This line is I

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Speaker 2: think wake Forest is down to a one and a

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Speaker 2: half two point home favorite, which sticks out to me

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Speaker 2: with Florida State, and we said this going into the year.

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Speaker 2: Last year, their offensive line was an absolute train wreck

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Speaker 2: and it was one of the reasons why they ended

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Speaker 2: their Bowl streak and they just struggled so much. Their

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Speaker 2: offensive line is one of the worst in the nations.

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Speaker 2: Talking about Florida State, well this year, same deal. Their

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Speaker 2: offensive line is atrocious. I think I read somewhere that

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Speaker 2: their left tackle is the lowest rated tackle in all

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Speaker 2: of college football. Again, this is a college football that

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Speaker 2: has UMass and ACRON and all these group of five.

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Speaker 2: Floridas day is the worst. You know. If you look

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Speaker 2: at some of their their metrics, there are one hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty third in line yards. I mean, the offensive

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Speaker 2: line is the train wreck here. Wake Forest defense also

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Speaker 2: can be a train wreck at times. I don't think

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Speaker 2: I'm going to get involved here. It looks like a

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Speaker 2: coin flip to me. What do you see here?

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Speaker 3: Wake Forest is averaging eighty seven point four plays per game.

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Speaker 3: Speed Racer Florida State is one hundred and thirtieth in

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Speaker 3: time of possession. They average twenty four minutes a game.

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Speaker 3: If you're going to give a Wake Force team that

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Speaker 3: is tops in the nation and plays per game thirty

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Speaker 3: six minutes, just grant them thirty six minutes of play.

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Speaker 3: I can't even imagine what the final score now. Projection wise,

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Speaker 3: it's a little bit below. It's a sixty eight, and

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Speaker 3: I got to projectors a little bit below. But considering that,

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Speaker 3: you know, Wake is one hundred nineteenth themselves in defending

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Speaker 3: explosive plays and Florida State is fifty seventh and overall

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Speaker 3: defensive explosive plays, I think Wake Forest is gonna score

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Speaker 3: a whole bunch more. But the fact that Florida State

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Speaker 3: is worse than the nation in time of possession and

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Speaker 3: Wake is number one in plays per game, Wake could

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Speaker 3: get seventy, couldn't they, I mean, could they logistically not

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Speaker 3: get So how many possessions are they going to have? Eighteen, nineteen,

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty one. It's gonna be amazing.

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Speaker 2: But one of the things they consider, remember how we

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Speaker 2: saw early in the year with Florida State, how you

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Speaker 2: know they would kind of just melt down towards in

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Speaker 2: the second halves and they look, you know, like they

431
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 2: weren't well conditioned. It happened against Boise they got outscored

432
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: seventeen nothing in the second half. It happened against La

433
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 2: Monroe they give up thirty one in the second half.

434
00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 2: So maybe something they consider here is, you know, Wake Forest,

435
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 2: as fast as they go, they do they wear out?

436
00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:55,720
Speaker 2: You know, is Florida State their defensive line? Is it

437
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,800
Speaker 2: wore out by the second half? Are they worn out?

438
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,360
Speaker 2: I don't know. It's something to watch at least, but yeah,

439
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 2: that's definitely an interesting thought that you just had any

440
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,160
Speaker 2: interest in betting either side? Or are you gonna wait

441
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 2: for live?

442
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 3: I mean sidewise, I mean, what's the point spread at

443
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:11,000
Speaker 3: one and you're expecting you know, points of about seventy

444
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 3: you're gonna be able to get. This is a perfect

445
00:21:12,760 --> 00:21:14,440
Speaker 3: live betting game. I mean you're gonna be able to

446
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:16,439
Speaker 3: get at least three and maybe seven on both sides.

447
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:19,760
Speaker 2: Yep, completely agree. All right, let's move on to the

448
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 2: A C. I. We'll start with a pretty intriguing game

449
00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 2: here with Temple against our number one SMU undefeated, ranked

450
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 2: six to zero. After that scare against Tulsa at home,

451
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 2: they've had a buy. Now they get Temple at home,

452
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:41,159
Speaker 2: Temple off an upset win over Memphis and again you know,

453
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 2: they got pretty fortunate and early with some turnovers. Is

454
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:49,440
Speaker 2: SMU and they're undefeated and rank and because of that,

455
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 2: are they overvalued here?

456
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 3: I think SMU is overvalued here. I think it should

457
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 3: be at four I think what's the most important handicap

458
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,640
Speaker 3: going on here is that Temple's twenty fifth and defensive

459
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 3: passing success rate that we've talked about this year is

460
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 3: SMU their passing attack. What the seeker has meant to them,

461
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 3: to that.

462
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:08,919
Speaker 1: Machine, the best kept secret in college football.

463
00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 3: SMU has the seeker.

464
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 2: They call me the Seekers.

465
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 3: Giving their reps to their wide receivers. And with Temple

466
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 3: rinking in the top twenty five in defensive passing success rate,

467
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 3: I think that's going to slow SMU down a little bit,

468
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 3: which makes the eight. I expect this game to be

469
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 3: a four, not at eight. So how am I going

470
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 3: to play this? I'm looking for moneyline parlay pieces to

471
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,719
Speaker 3: match with one of the premiere games this weekend, and

472
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 3: SMU is a good looking piece to put into a

473
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 3: moneyline parlay.

474
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 2: Yeah. Something to keep in mind is their star receiver,

475
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 2: Reggie Robson, who we've talked about a lot in this podcast.

476
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 2: He was upgraded to probable and we talk about the

477
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 2: seeker and if you look at most catchable targets without

478
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 2: a drop. This year's per Pro Football focus of wide

479
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:03,160
Speaker 2: receivers of the top six Reggie Roberson and James Perche.

480
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 2: Perche has forty four catches without a drop, Roberson thirty four.

481
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 2: Others on that list Gandy Golden from Liberty get balls

482
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 2: from Buckshot, and Devin Duvernet has caught fifty three balls

483
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 2: without a drop. So those receivers are excellent. The seekers

484
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 2: seems to be working. Another game a ranked team newly

485
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: ranked team might be a little overvalued. Is Cincinnati against Tulsa.

486
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: Tulsa's two and four, but they've really been competitive. We

487
00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:29,679
Speaker 2: just talked about them losing that heartbreaker, and again they

488
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 2: should have won at SMU. They had a lead against

489
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State in the second half. They really just don't

490
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 2: match up well. Against Navy, they had a touchdown call

491
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 2: back which also flipped that game. You know, Cincinnati, their

492
00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,359
Speaker 2: defense is excellent. They have a great punter. I mean,

493
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 2: their defense is just really good. There's no other way

494
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 2: to put it. But seventeen here it seems a little rich.

495
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 2: But I don't know where Tulsa's head is at after

496
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: some of these losses and any faith in back in

497
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 2: the Golden Hurricane going up to Cincy this weekend.

498
00:23:57,000 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 3: I was actually studying when you were tweeting me the

499
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,800
Speaker 3: other night about going through the the dumpster, the dumpster bin,

500
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 3: looking for teams to bet on.

501
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 2: The fine, don't you worry it.

502
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 3: Tulsa does have a top twenty five rank in defensive

503
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 3: pass success rate, which is big against Cincinnati. But there's

504
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,159
Speaker 3: just something I can't get over with Tulson. That is

505
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 3: a Cincinnati's thirty sixth then havoc Tulsa's one hundred and

506
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 3: second havoc allowed. That's a bad matchup. It's the reason

507
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 3: why I've been I've faded Tulsa last week and Navy

508
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 3: just tore them apart. I make this game actually since

509
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,159
Speaker 3: the minus fourteen, so it's a little inflated, so it

510
00:24:25,200 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 3: won't be a play for me. Uh but you know,

511
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:31,200
Speaker 3: if Tulso can protect the ball, if Tulso can keep

512
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 3: havoc allowed from being a problem, then they should cover

513
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 3: this game just fine.

514
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 2: Last game will cover in the AAC. My boys, Tulane,

515
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 2: who I love. We have thirty five to one to

516
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:44,760
Speaker 2: win the conference. Is a huge game. They're off a

517
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 2: bye after just shredding Army in a game that has

518
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: a misleading final score. Taking on Memphis and I was

519
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 2: hoping Memphis pulled out the win against Temple, but didn't

520
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,520
Speaker 2: cover to make this spot better for two late Julane's

521
00:24:56,560 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 2: catching four here. I'm very close to pulling the trigger

522
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: on my boys once again. I have been higher on

523
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 2: them than the market all year long. This should be

524
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,199
Speaker 2: a really good game. Memphis is legit and like I

525
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: said they did, they did kind of get jobbed and

526
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 2: unlucky last week at Temple. What do you make of

527
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:12,920
Speaker 2: this game?

528
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think you should pull the trigger. I

529
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 3: think it's going to come back down. But Memphis is

530
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 3: eighty eighth and defending rush explosiveness and that's going to

531
00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,879
Speaker 3: be a problem against Tulane. I make the game Memphis

532
00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 3: minus two. These team's really similar, like eerily similar in

533
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 3: the stats, like they're almost exactly the same, and yards

534
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: per play versus their opponent yards per play the differential

535
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 3: their strength to schedule is eighty eighth and eighty ninth.

536
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: To this point, two lane's been the better red zone team.

537
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,879
Speaker 3: And there's just a couple other statistical categories as far

538
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 3: as explosiveness goes where it favors TWU lane. So while

539
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 3: you know Memphis is a boomer bust offense, I think

540
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 3: two lane's the one that's going to have a little

541
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 3: bit more success rate on the offensive end, you know,

542
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,240
Speaker 3: could outright upset although I think you know Memphis minus

543
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 3: two is the true number.

544
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 2: All right, let's run through the big twelve here quickly.

545
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 2: You know we both I saw on the app that

546
00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 2: you played Kansas. I played Kansas as well, catching twenty

547
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:02,360
Speaker 2: one and a half. I can't believe I'm going back

548
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 2: to Kansas. But Texas, look, after watching them last week,

549
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 2: they should have been blown out against Oklahoma. Let's be honest,

550
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,119
Speaker 2: they should have lost that game by I don't know,

551
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 2: twenty eight. They were extremely fortunate, so you can't deny

552
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 2: those injuries. This is a huge letdown spot. Also, after

553
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:19,919
Speaker 2: losing that game, it pretty much washes away any of

554
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: their hopes and dreams. You know, they're big aspirations. With

555
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 2: their second loss of the year, Kansas off of buye

556
00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: new offensive coordinator, I think they'll have some things cooked

557
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 2: up here. Classic flat spot for Texas. You're on the

558
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 2: Jay Talks with me, right.

559
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I was looking at the I mean I

560
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,360
Speaker 3: wrote it up in the Sunday Morning column a couple

561
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 3: of weeks ago that they fired their offensive coordinator and

562
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 3: the Brent Deerman guy, that they brought in as a

563
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,920
Speaker 3: disciple of Gus Miles on publishing a couple books about

564
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 3: the art of the RPO and how to run the

565
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 3: RPO successfully. A wizard. Now, I mean we say that

566
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,639
Speaker 3: about people like Shawn Gleason at Oklahoma State. You know

567
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 3: we've said that about other offensive coordinators. It doesn't mean

568
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 3: that it translates immediately. But it's going to be something

569
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 3: that Texas had no way to prepare for. They have

570
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 3: no way to prepare for this. They're in a flat spot.

571
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 3: Everybody's hurt. This is just a game. I don't think

572
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 3: they care about covering a number this big. They just

573
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 3: want to get out with a win. Period.

574
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:13,400
Speaker 2: I completely agree there, and you know it's probably it'll

575
00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 2: I think it'll be scary for a while, as long

576
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 2: as Kansas's doesn't come out like they did against TCU.

577
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: They get an early score and like the new offensive

578
00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 2: coordinator after a buye. So there's some unpredictability, some unfamiliarity

579
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,000
Speaker 2: with what Kansas is gonna run. I'm sure they'll have

580
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,879
Speaker 2: a few trick plays. It's it's it's less at the

581
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 2: end of the day. So I think Kansas can stay

582
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 2: within twenty one. Now, I'll be regretting this when they're

583
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:39,280
Speaker 2: down forty five nothing at the half, but hopefully not

584
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 2: another game here in the Big twelve that I love.

585
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 2: It's probably my favorite play on the board this weekend

586
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 2: is Oklahoma State. I was able to get them three

587
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 2: with a little juice early in the week at home

588
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 2: against Baylor. This is just a classic spot to buy

589
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State at home off a bye, after that loss

590
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 2: against Tech Tech where I think they turned it over

591
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 2: five times. This offense is explosive, explosive, maybe the best

592
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,560
Speaker 2: back in Cuba Hubbard to me. People call them Shobba

593
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: Tylan Wallace on the outside sanders who also can run

594
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:14,960
Speaker 2: the ball. This is a running offense. I think they're

595
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,199
Speaker 2: running it like sixty percent of the time. But you know,

596
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 2: after a bye playing a Baylor team which and don't

597
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:24,440
Speaker 2: sleep on this lost Klay Johnston, their linebacker, leading tackler,

598
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: part of that defense. It's just a huge loss for

599
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,639
Speaker 2: a front seven that was playing so well. Love what

600
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 2: Matt Rules doing down there, and I love usually backing him,

601
00:28:33,960 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: but this is a Gundy spot. I like Oaks State

602
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 2: up to anything for under What do you see here?

603
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 3: Yeah? One hundred percent? I make the game up to five.

604
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 3: You know, Oklahoma State is I echo everything that you say,

605
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 3: especially with the injury, and that's going to be tough

606
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 3: for them to come back from, especially with the numbers

607
00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 3: that they had put up. And I think you know,

608
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 3: one thing that people forget is that last year Oklahoma

609
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 3: State went into a bye week with a lot of issues.

610
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 3: They had offensive linemen missing assignments, they had off of

611
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:04,959
Speaker 3: linemen pulling guards that were moving the wrong way, penalties galore.

612
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 3: Taylor Cornelius was a mess, the defense was a mess.

613
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 3: Everybody needed a reset button. They went into the bye week,

614
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 3: they came out of it, and they upset Texas one

615
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:14,640
Speaker 3: of the best games of the year last year in

616
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 3: the Big twelve, Gundy Is got everybody on the same page. Now,

617
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: coming out of this bye week, I think the number

618
00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 3: is a lot higher, and I think they're going to

619
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 3: be able to expose I mean, Baylor. I know a

620
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 3: lot of people are throwing money down on Baylor, you know,

621
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 3: the ranked team, the big contender in the Big twelve,

622
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 3: being a dog in Stillwater. But yeah, go Pokes all

623
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 3: the way this weekend and this is probably going to be, like,

624
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 3: you know, the biggest moneyline piece that I have because

625
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 3: I did miss out on the three. It's not coming back.

626
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 3: It's at three and a half and a couple shops

627
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 3: for everywhere else. It's not coming back to three. So

628
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 3: I've got to make this a moneyline piece.

629
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. The one thing you worry about in Oklahoma States

630
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: is just so explosive. The one thing they need to

631
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 2: get better at is standards. Need to stop throwing picks.

632
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 2: We killed them against Texas Tech. He at three picks,

633
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 2: So hopefully after the buye they got some of that

634
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: figured out. Only the other game I want to mention

635
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 2: in the Big twelve Iowa State Texas Tech. It is October.

636
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 2: Ioway stayed a seven point favorite at Lubbock. Text defense

637
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 2: is actually playing much better than I thought it would

638
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 2: this year. I love this Higowa State defense. I took

639
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 2: a little piece of the under Do you say anything

640
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 2: in that game you like?

641
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna be taking Texas Tech. There is seven.

642
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:15,880
Speaker 3: The numbers is gonna drop. I'm actually probably gonna be

643
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 3: placing a bet here live against Ceber. I'm going against Brocktober.

644
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 3: I mean it's seven points. I think the seven points

645
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 3: is too high. And Texas Tech's actually put a lot

646
00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 3: of pressure on the quarterback on defense, So I agree

647
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: that it could become a shootout, but at the same time,

648
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 3: I think it's a one possession shootout.

649
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually think it's going to be lower scoring

650
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: in the many thing. Now, it's tough because Texas Tech

651
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 2: wants to play as fast as humanly possible, so it's

652
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: always tough to play and under that circumstance. But all right,

653
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: moving on to the Big Ten. We're gonna get to

654
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 2: Michigan Penn State later. So the only game I want

655
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 2: to talk about here, since we already talked about wiscons

656
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 2: we were talking about high of the state. Just real quick,

657
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 2: one sentence on Minnesota Rutgers. Minnesota is a twenty eight

658
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite. At Rutgers. I have a

659
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,800
Speaker 2: do not bet list every year and I put teams

660
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 2: college basketball, college football, But in every sport in college football,

661
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:04,719
Speaker 2: U Mass has been on there all year. Last year,

662
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 2: Yukon was on there and a couple other teams. UTSA

663
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,360
Speaker 2: ended up on there. This year is just UMass and

664
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 2: then a couple of weeks ago Rutgers was added. Somehow

665
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,280
Speaker 2: I didn't I haven't still added Acron because it's the MAC.

666
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 2: I should and they still haven't covered, by the way,

667
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 2: but I can't bet Rutgers under any circumstance, right, are

668
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 2: are they unbettable?

669
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 3: Yeah? I mean they've been you masked. I mean we

670
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 3: can't bet them under any number, any steam, any market

671
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: indicator that tells us that there should be a play,

672
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 3: any advanced stat in the box, anything, it doesn't matter.

673
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 3: We can't play these days. There are one hundred and

674
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: thirtieth and first downs. They're the worst in the country.

675
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 3: They average eleven per game, eleven. I think they had

676
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 3: six last game. I mean they are they're regressing from

677
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirtieth that you can't do that. One

678
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 3: hundred and thirtieth is the bottom mathematically. They're pretty fun

679
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 3: to watch here on paper, but on the TV it's

680
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 3: it's it's gross.

681
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 2: My favorite, Yeah, My favorite stat of the year so

682
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 2: far though, was Langing he's a third string quarterback, the

683
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 2: transfer from bc BC's down to like their seventh string

684
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 2: quarterback because they had like five guys transfer. Anthony Brown's

685
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 2: out for the year. By the way, Langan last week

686
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 2: with five of thirteen for one yard. That's just sad.

687
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 2: But I would even look better zero yards or negative

688
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 2: and you just say, oh, sack just five to thirteen

689
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 2: for one yard just looks hysterical. And that's what the

690
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,239
Speaker 2: Rutgers program is right now. It really should be a

691
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:25,720
Speaker 2: FCS team. All right, let's move on to Conference USA.

692
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 2: One of the games that I'm looking forward to the

693
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 2: most this weekend is Southern Miss LA Tech. Southern Miss

694
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 2: is a one point favorite at LA Tech. Southern Miss

695
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 2: I backed last week. I backed them against Troy. I

696
00:32:39,600 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 2: think they just really benefited from you know, they played

697
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: Mississippi State in a game they lost by twenty three.

698
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 2: The game is a lot closer than the box score

699
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 2: they played. They went to Bama and got beat up.

700
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 2: I think they're benefiting from that now at a buy

701
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 2: beat North Texas last week by eighteen. But this is

702
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 2: a pretty good game. We have some rest in Voodoo

703
00:32:57,320 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: to worry about law Tech hosting any deal there.

704
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:00,719
Speaker 3: I don't know if it's going to make it. It's

705
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 3: La Tech or nothing for me. And really it comes

706
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 3: down to what are these teams defenses, Because you know,

707
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 3: this is the strength of LA Tech's offense against the

708
00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 3: strength of Southern miss defense. And the one area that

709
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 3: I've been focusing on is like the red zone percentages

710
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 3: and opponent red zone percentage is so red zone defense

711
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 3: La Tech has actually been in the top twenty five

712
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 3: and like every category like points per attempt TD scoring

713
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 3: scoring percentage as to where Southern Miss has been outside

714
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 3: the top one hundred, So that you know, it makes

715
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 3: it tough. And they both have had terrible schedules so far.

716
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 3: There's strength of schedule both behind both under ninety outside

717
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: of ninety, so you know, it's not like either of

718
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 3: them have had a really tough time getting here to

719
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 3: this point. With all things being equal, the you know,

720
00:33:36,960 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: the strength on strength is the law Tech offense against

721
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 3: Southern Miss defense, but Latech's defense in the red zone

722
00:33:41,880 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 3: is what the difference is in this game.

723
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 2: And the moment everyone's been waiting for while you were

724
00:33:46,120 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 2: dumpster diving during the week, and for those who don't

725
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: know what I'm referring to, caught when a notification comes

726
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 2: through in the action app the column put a plan.

727
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 2: We saw a bowling green, which I'll make you explain,

728
00:33:56,520 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 2: and we saw Utsa against Rice. Now this game is funny.

729
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: Rice is oh and sick. They're four and a half

730
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 2: point favorites at UTSA. I told you by the way

731
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:13,560
Speaker 2: that Rice under was a lock notable here. I believe

732
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 2: Utsa's quarterback, not that it matters that much with that offense,

733
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 2: but their quarterback is out for the year. But explain

734
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,280
Speaker 2: your dumpster diving here and playing meat meat.

735
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,319
Speaker 3: Listen. Rice should not be four and a half point

736
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 3: favorites on the road. That's an asen nine number, all right.

737
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:32,760
Speaker 3: And the UTSA defense they're still very much havoc minded.

738
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 3: So Rice is you know, was going to turn the

739
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 3: ball over. Utsa is good at forcing turnovers. Rice should

740
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 3: not be favored on the road. It's a spot where listen,

741
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 3: I know all of you got on me last week

742
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 3: about UTSA and u ab Utsa covered that almost the

743
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,320
Speaker 3: entire game. UTSA is gonna get this week. They're still motivated,

744
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 3: they're still fired up, they're still playing for something. There's

745
00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:51,839
Speaker 3: the way Rice should be a four and a half

746
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 3: point favorite over anybody in the FBS. It's ludicrous.

747
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 2: Did your book pay you eighty percent of your bed amount?

748
00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:57,840
Speaker 2: Since they were covering for eighty percent of the.

749
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 3: Game, they were covering ninety nine pers another game, they

750
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: should have paid me ninety nine percent of it. U

751
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 3: TSA's defense is respectable and they're definitely the better havoc defense.

752
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 2: All right, moving on independence, we have two pretty interesting games,

753
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 2: Army and Georgia State. I mean, you want to talk

754
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: about two teams that are completely contrasting in style. Georgia

755
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 2: State wants to chuck it around. Army obviously is a

756
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 2: triple option team. Army is a four and a half

757
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 2: point favorite. They were five, and I think I got

758
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 2: off to six and a half, down to four and

759
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:29,320
Speaker 2: a half over under fifty seven ish. What do you

760
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 2: see here?

761
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I could the number one against me. I mean

762
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 3: I took it on open with Army at six, and

763
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 3: the whole thinking mind, it was like Georgia State is high,

764
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 3: you know, I was mentioning Wake being at eighty seven

765
00:35:39,880 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 3: plays per game. Georgia State's at eighty five plays per game.

766
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 3: But the thing is, you can't run your offense when

767
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: you're playing Army because Army is going to shave you

768
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 3: down to about eight possessions in the game and you

769
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:50,959
Speaker 3: better make them count. And it's not like Georgia State

770
00:35:51,000 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 3: on offense is any kind of success rate monster or anything.

771
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 3: They're not. So they're gonna have limited number of possessions,

772
00:35:57,680 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 3: and I think Army is going to get back to,

773
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 3: you know, running option. That's a real problem for Georgia

774
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:03,520
Speaker 3: State because the reason why I hit it on open

775
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 3: is because Georgia State is one hundred and fourth in

776
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 3: lineyards one hundred and seventeenth and passing down line yards

777
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 3: ninety eighth. Then an opportunity, I mean, just go on

778
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 3: and on. They're outside everything, and so you know, this

779
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 3: is a game where Army should dominate the trench, and

780
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 3: then games where Army dominates the trench, I'm gonna I'm

781
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:17,879
Speaker 3: going to back them.

782
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 2: Another interesting game independence. We also have Maine at Liberty.

783
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: By the way, Boise stayed at BYU. A lot of

784
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 2: quarterback questions here. I think back Meyer's out for Boise.

785
00:36:32,160 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 2: If they have quarterback dep with Chase Cordy can come

786
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 2: in and play Boise. By the way, six and oh

787
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 2: ranked number fourteenth in the country BYU is just reeling.

788
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 2: They're two and four all kinds of quarterback is just

789
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:44,680
Speaker 2: my favorite thing that I dug up this week was

790
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,920
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson. They're starting quarterbacks out for the year. Jaron

791
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 2: Hall backup who started last week and got hurt. He

792
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 2: now might play. You know, they're being really quiet, and

793
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,720
Speaker 2: they said all three were practicing today. If he doesn't play,

794
00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 2: it'll either be Baylor Romney or Joe Kritchla Well. Baylor

795
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:04,719
Speaker 2: Romney is the brother of Gunner Romney, who's a wide

796
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:07,479
Speaker 2: receiver on the team, and they're both related to Mitt

797
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 2: Romney and Joe Kritchlaw, the other quarterback is married to

798
00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 2: Mitt Romney's granddaughter. So I lost track of what the

799
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 2: hell was going on. But then I see Mitt Romney

800
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 2: is coming out today saying he's in favor of college

801
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: athletes getting paid. Well, makes sense. His whole family's on BYU.

802
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 3: He's tired of footing the bill.

803
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 2: You know, I look at this game and just everything

804
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 2: I've been seeing, and this BYU front offensive line, their

805
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 2: defensive line, their schedule has been brutal. Quarterback questions. Boise's

806
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 2: defense really good and get a lot of pressure, two

807
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:41,000
Speaker 2: great corners. That offense is playing well. I can't back

808
00:37:41,200 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 2: BYU here other than hey, there's gonna be some BYU magic.

809
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:47,200
Speaker 2: I can't lay seven with Boise. And then there's all

810
00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 2: the quarterback questions as well. I'm just staying away here.

811
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 2: How about you.

812
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:51,879
Speaker 3: It's a complete stay away because we don't know how

813
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 3: to power rate all of these quarterbacks that you just

814
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 3: brought up. I know what the number would be if

815
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 3: Zach Wilson was playing. It should be BYU plus five.

816
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,320
Speaker 3: So if you take him out of the quay, I

817
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 3: would make him four points, which would make this game around.

818
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 3: I don't know eight and a half or nine. I

819
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:05,839
Speaker 3: don't know what we're gonna get. I don't know how

820
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 3: you andicapp it or how you get money down in

821
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:08,840
Speaker 3: this game with an angle.

822
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,240
Speaker 2: Yep, all right, but let's move on to some maction.

823
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 2: I swear we won't spend too much time here. I

824
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 2: played ball State. I have a stinking suspicion that Guadali,

825
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 2: their Toledo's quarterback, is going to be out for the year.

826
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 2: No announcement yet. There's also Bowling Green, who you played

827
00:38:22,800 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 2: during your dumpster dive. This weekend, Bowling Green is off

828
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 2: a huge win. They beat Toledo as twenty seven point underdogs.

829
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:34,040
Speaker 2: It'd be twenty to seven. You're going back to the

830
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 2: well here with the what is the MAC Championship going

831
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 2: to be?

832
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 3: If?

833
00:38:36,719 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 2: Hold on, let me just look this up quick. The

834
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 2: season ended today would be Kent State versus Ball State

835
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 2: in the MAC Championship. But yeah, what do you see

836
00:38:42,719 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 2: in the MAC? You can cover Bowling Green wherever you

837
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 2: want to go.

838
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just wanted to go. I mean, I think

839
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 3: Bowling Reading that they're fired up about what they pulled

840
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 3: off last week. They are clicking on all cylinders, the

841
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,200
Speaker 3: best week of practice they ever had. This should continue.

842
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,680
Speaker 3: That they've figured something out. If that is true, then

843
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 3: the market hasn't truly we we were not able to

844
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 3: adjust for that. I know that I did not adjust

845
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,959
Speaker 3: Bowling Green that much from the win over Toledo last week.

846
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:10,240
Speaker 3: And so you know, if they if Bowling Green truly

847
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 3: has fit something out heading in the right direction, then

848
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 3: that's something that I want to ahead of. And if

849
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 3: it cost me a unit to figure it out, I mean,

850
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: that's fine. But I mean they had four hunder and

851
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 3: twenty five yards of offense last week. Now they were

852
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 3: able to beat a decent Toledo team, even if you

853
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:24,800
Speaker 3: know they were missing their quarterback. I'm sure the backup

854
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 3: of Toledo is better than anything that you know Bowling

855
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 3: Green's got. So I We're going to roll with it

856
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 3: here and then see what see what bowling Green can do.

857
00:39:31,239 --> 00:39:33,920
Speaker 2: All right, you'll be alone there. All right, Let's move

858
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 2: on to the Mountain West, another fascinating matchup Here. We

859
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 2: talked about Army and Georgia State and contrasting styles Air

860
00:39:41,440 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: Force Hawaii late night on the Island triple option versus

861
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 2: run and shoot. By the way, Hawaii did play Navy

862
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,319
Speaker 2: last last year, so they did see the option then

863
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 2: when they traveled like seventeen thousand miles for a noon

864
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,399
Speaker 2: kick in Annapolis. But I just don't know how either

865
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 2: team will stop the other, Like, how's the air Force

866
00:39:58,280 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 2: is stock going to run triple option all the way

867
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:02,280
Speaker 2: down the fiel? And how's Hawaii not just going to answer?

868
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:03,920
Speaker 2: I'll be live betting this game.

869
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: Late I'll be playing Hawaii. I think. I mean, air

870
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 3: Force is ninety fifth in defensive passing success rate, so

871
00:40:10,520 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 3: their opponents are able to throw all over them all day.

872
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 3: And I think that's just going to be a huge

873
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:16,879
Speaker 3: change for for air Force. But do you think stop

874
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 3: the Absolutely not. But I think Hawaii is going to

875
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 3: be able to score much quicker. But you know, I

876
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: mean air Force can break it off and run too.

877
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 3: But I mean, if you're going to give me this.

878
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 3: Then air Force has been playing at such a high

879
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 3: pace against different looking teams, and I mean this is

880
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 3: some This is a travel issue here, an elevation issue

881
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 3: coming down. Hawaii is going to be the fresher team

882
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:38,399
Speaker 3: and the team's going to be winning the game through

883
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,439
Speaker 3: the air. So but you're right, I mean, I air

884
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 3: Force is cann be able to do what they want

885
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,360
Speaker 3: on the ground. I just favor the team going up

886
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 3: against the worst pass defense. Air Force is not good

887
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 3: against the pass whatsoever.

888
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't know. Does every Hawaii game

889
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 2: go over this year? I don't know how you don't

890
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 2: bet the over again, but I'll be live betting it.

891
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 2: I mean, I swear every Hawaii game is gone over

892
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 2: all right? And the other game I just wanted to

893
00:40:57,640 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: bring up with the Mountain West San Diego State, San

894
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:02,360
Speaker 2: Jose State. San Diego State is you know, their offense

895
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 2: still can't get it going. Their defense is playing excellent.

896
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 2: They got us to cover last week against Wyoming. But

897
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,520
Speaker 2: if there's one team that cannot figure out the San

898
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 2: Diego State, you know, patting at three three five defense,

899
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 2: it is San Jose State. As techs. Here's what they

900
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,360
Speaker 2: they are points totals since twenty fourteen against San Diego

901
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 2: State final point totals seven seven, three seven. Last year,

902
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 2: they scored thirteen thirty seven points in the last five matchups,

903
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 2: a little over seven a game. They just can't figure

904
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 2: out the San Diego State offen. I just wanted to

905
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 2: bring that out.

906
00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 3: I think it's really tough to take San Jose State

907
00:41:39,160 --> 00:41:41,239
Speaker 3: in this spot, and maybe even tougher to take an

908
00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:42,880
Speaker 3: over in this game. And the reasons because if you

909
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,399
Speaker 3: look at the time of possession San Jose State, I mean,

910
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 3: they've they're one hundred and seventeenth. They only like to

911
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 3: only have the ball about twenty six minutes. They're inefficient

912
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 3: with three and outs, or they are down the field

913
00:41:52,000 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 3: in scoring, they don't score that much though. You know,

914
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 3: San Diego State, even though they've moved to this spread attack,

915
00:41:56,960 --> 00:42:00,920
Speaker 3: it's still rocky long possession ball control. Time of possession

916
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 3: is third. I think this is gonna be a thing

917
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:03,840
Speaker 3: where San Jose State just doesn't get a lot of

918
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:05,399
Speaker 3: they don't get a lot of turns having the ball,

919
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 3: and it's gonna make it tough on them to not

920
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 3: just score points, but I mean, you know, taking it

921
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:11,760
Speaker 3: over here is probably dangerous.

922
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's go on to the PAC twelve.

923
00:42:13,840 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 2: Before we get to a few games in the market

924
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 2: games of the week, Let's talk Arizona USC. It's a

925
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 2: really interesting game that you know. I don't know how

926
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,720
Speaker 2: Arizona stops USC and their air raid and their receivers.

927
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: They don't get any pressure on the quarterback. They've one

928
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,799
Speaker 2: of the worst pass defenses in the country. USC should

929
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 2: score well, but should in Arizona. But I don't know

930
00:42:32,200 --> 00:42:34,959
Speaker 2: what to expect from Khalil Tate. Is he actually gonna

931
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 2: run because if he can, you could run all day

932
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,320
Speaker 2: off the edge and so tailor. I mean, the Arizona

933
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 2: should run wild against USC off the edge of that

934
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 2: young defense has been undisciplined all year, but it's take

935
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 2: Sometimes he doesn't take off and he's inconsistent, but just overall,

936
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 2: the Arizona offense has been extremely explosive and the USC defense,

937
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 2: I mean, the only notable healthy quarterback going into this

938
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 2: game is a true freshman, Chris Steele. They had no

939
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 2: cornerbacks left. They're all hurt. So it makes me want

940
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 2: to look at Arizona. We have some PAC twelve if

941
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:09,840
Speaker 2: the dark here, maybe even the over. I don't know

942
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 2: who stops who in this game. This could be a

943
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 2: classic PAC twelve after Dark matchup. What do you see?

944
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, USC's defensive line metrics are pretty bad too, outside

945
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:19,720
Speaker 3: the top one hundred line yards, one hundred and fifteenth

946
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:21,520
Speaker 3: in opportunity rate one hundred and fifth and stuff. Right,

947
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,240
Speaker 3: they're not getting in the backfield, they're not stopping anybody,

948
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 3: and you know, their sack rates only seventy four, so

949
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 3: it's not like they're gonna get any pressure on Khalil Tate.

950
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 3: But at the same time, Arizona is one hundred and

951
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 3: nineteenth in defensive pass rates passing success rate. They are

952
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 3: allowing teams to throw all over them. That's gonna be

953
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 3: great for Kiddon Slovas. US may have a little bit

954
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 3: of a better defense, although not on the ground against

955
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 3: the rushing attack, Kiddon Slovas should have no problems throwing

956
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 3: on this Arizona team whatsoever. So this is one of

957
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 3: those games where I've got it lined at seven and

958
00:43:49,239 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 3: a half. It's hanging in the dead number at nine

959
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 3: and a half. Throw this in the bucket of teams

960
00:43:53,680 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 3: that I'm looking as a favorite to moneyline parlay because

961
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 3: I'm sitting in this dead range.

962
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 2: Fair enough, Let's move on to the SEC. Let's talk

963
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 2: Florida South Carolina. Talk about a weird situation to andicap

964
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:09,840
Speaker 2: South Carolina off that huge upset at Georgia. And you

965
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,480
Speaker 2: know you have Florida coming off just a brutal stretch,

966
00:44:12,920 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 2: right They beat Auburn and then they go to LSU.

967
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 2: They have a bye next week and then Georgia. So

968
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 2: it could be a little flat spot here for Florida.

969
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 2: But to South Carolina, do they come out emotionally flat

970
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 2: at there's such a big upset. It looks like South

971
00:44:27,160 --> 00:44:29,640
Speaker 2: Carolina's quarterback will play. It looks like Florida's top two

972
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,160
Speaker 2: pass rushers will not. It's a really tough game to

973
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,279
Speaker 2: cap for me. Line's sitting at Florida minus five. This

974
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 2: is a pure stay away from me. How about you?

975
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 3: It's a South Carolina or nothing for me. I mean

976
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:44,759
Speaker 3: you mentioned the injuries here to Florida. South Carolina wasn't

977
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 3: that great at protecting the quarterback on the offensive line,

978
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 3: but they are good at running the ball. Their offensive

979
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 3: line has been successful in line yards ranking nineteenth twelfth

980
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 3: and stuff rate, so they're able to get the yards

981
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 3: when they need in the rushing game. Lenski was kind

982
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 3: of coming into his own, but I think I just

983
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 3: keep coming back to you know. You and I were

984
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 3: tweeting back and forth or in the fourth quarter of

985
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 3: the Florida LSU game, and I think all I could

986
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:07,280
Speaker 3: come back with on you. I mean, man, Florida was scoring,

987
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 3: you know it will against the LSU defense that I

988
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 3: thought was better than what they showed last week. But

989
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 3: at one point, you know, I tweet a back at

990
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 3: you saying Florida's going to run out of gas at

991
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 3: some point. Well, here we are Auburn LSU and now

992
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 3: we're on, you know, another week away from home. I

993
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 3: just don't think Florida's going to have anything in the

994
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 3: tank whatsoever. Now let's talk about South Carolina. Are they

995
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 3: truly on a hangover? See, here's what a hangover is

996
00:45:27,200 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: to me. A hangover is not just upsetting a team

997
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 3: or winning as an underdog. A hangover is where you

998
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 3: played out of your mind, You played out of your

999
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,359
Speaker 3: gord like you were just you did things that you've

1000
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 3: never done before. That's not what happened last week. If

1001
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,560
Speaker 3: you look at the real time box score. South Carolina

1002
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:45,280
Speaker 3: had an eight percent win expectancy in that box score.

1003
00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,040
Speaker 3: They only had one offensive touchdown, They had a pick six.

1004
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 3: They only picked six that ever happened to Jake from Georgia.

1005
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 3: The conservative play calling, what they're doing on standard downs

1006
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,439
Speaker 3: is atrocious. That deserves a whole nother podcast, a whole

1007
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:00,759
Speaker 3: nother time. But you know they didn't care Crodrigo at

1008
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 3: the end. Then they got to overtime and he missed

1009
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 3: a kick. South Carolina didn't win that game. Georgia lost

1010
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 3: that game. South Carolina didn't do anything special to win

1011
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 3: that game whatsoever. So are you truly on a hangover

1012
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:12,839
Speaker 3: if you didn't play out of your mind or if

1013
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:14,919
Speaker 3: you didn't play out of your own boundaries. I don't

1014
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 3: think South Carolina at all is going to be on

1015
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 3: a hangover here. I think they're going to be fired up,

1016
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 3: and I think they may have a little make could

1017
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:22,840
Speaker 3: be false confidence. What I do know is Florida is

1018
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:24,920
Speaker 3: on their third straight SEC game in a row, their

1019
00:46:24,960 --> 00:46:27,440
Speaker 3: second straight week on the road. I think it's a

1020
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:28,720
Speaker 3: good spot to back South Carolina.

1021
00:46:28,920 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, that South Carolina defense is playing really well. That

1022
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 2: defensive line with Dowdle and Feaster and Professor mus CHAMPI

1023
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 2: you know mus Champ, obviously he's going to have this

1024
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 2: team up for this game. That's the one thing that

1025
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 2: Florida go back to. For Florida since he's taken after

1026
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 2: that Missouri game, he took over play calling on defense.

1027
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 2: He switched him to more playing four to three more

1028
00:46:46,640 --> 00:46:48,640
Speaker 2: and it's really served their defense well.

1029
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 3: If South Carolina wins this game against Florida, I mean

1030
00:46:51,800 --> 00:46:54,840
Speaker 3: we are just a Missouri victory over Georgia away from

1031
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 3: having some second third place team in the SEC East

1032
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 3: trying to beat Alabama. I'll see an SEC championship game.

1033
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,799
Speaker 3: I mean Missouri can really I mean if there's a

1034
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 3: loss here, the dominoes are just lined up for Missouri

1035
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 3: to really cause avoc in that in that division.

1036
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, if they are granted their appeal, I think the

1037
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 2: NCA is waiting to see what happens here.

1038
00:47:13,600 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 3: If they're not, you could get an SEC champion with

1039
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,480
Speaker 3: two or three losses. That's what I'm saying, right, If

1040
00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,800
Speaker 3: they are denied their appeal, they could win the SEC East,

1041
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 3: not go to the championship game, which I mean second

1042
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 3: place would go, which you know potentially could have two

1043
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 3: or three losses. The dominoes are lined up for some

1044
00:47:28,680 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 3: craziness to happen, and South Carolina would be the first

1045
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 3: domino of Missouri beating Georgia would be the next.

1046
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:36,400
Speaker 2: To add something. I saw this on on on Twitter.

1047
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,320
Speaker 2: Since two thousand, there's been fourteen teams to win outright

1048
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 2: as twenty point underdogs and then are underdogs in the

1049
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 2: following week. Those teams are eleven and three against the spread.

1050
00:47:46,680 --> 00:47:48,480
Speaker 2: But there's only I think there was only one that

1051
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:50,880
Speaker 2: pulled off the outright upset, so should be an interesting game.

1052
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:54,759
Speaker 2: And keep in mind, look, so if South Carolina wins out,

1053
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 2: I think they go to the College Ball playoff. I

1054
00:47:56,680 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 2: mean it's crazy. They have three losses, but they would

1055
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 2: beat Alabama, they would beat Clemson, they would be I mean,

1056
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: they beat Florida, they'd beat Georgia. I mean, I don't know,

1057
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,480
Speaker 2: But here's what would happen to Alabama. If South Carolina

1058
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:12,240
Speaker 2: wins out, Florida beats Georgia, Missouri loses to both Georgia

1059
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 2: and Florida. South Carolina wins the SEC East with a

1060
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,400
Speaker 2: fourteen tie breaker at six and two. Could get crazy.

1061
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:20,560
Speaker 2: I could have South Carolina and the collegetball playoff. Now,

1062
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 2: they're not gonna win all those games, but it's fun

1063
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,200
Speaker 2: to think about. All right, one more answer. We're running

1064
00:48:24,200 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 2: a lot of time. One more answer, So we cover

1065
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 2: the Sun Belt, La Monroe or app State or over Under?

1066
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 2: What do you like there?

1067
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:32,839
Speaker 3: We're gonna go with app State?

1068
00:48:33,040 --> 00:48:35,000
Speaker 2: Okay State roll All right, Let's get to the marquee

1069
00:48:35,000 --> 00:48:40,239
Speaker 2: games of the week. It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

1070
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: Let's check out the marquee matchups we'll all end up

1071
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: betting for Week eight. Let's talk Michigan, Penn State. Penn

1072
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 2: State nine point favorite. You know, I think they're overvalued again.

1073
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 2: They haven't played anybody. Everyone was so impressed with their

1074
00:48:55,800 --> 00:48:58,960
Speaker 2: win over Maryland. Will Maryland's out here getting curb stomped

1075
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:02,359
Speaker 2: by produced practice at Penn State. Deserved to lose at

1076
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:07,720
Speaker 2: Iowa last week. I mean, Sean Clifford was absolutely horrid, horrid.

1077
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 2: They couldn't do anything on offense and what was he

1078
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 2: three point three and a half yards per attempt? Penn

1079
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 2: State prayer to get out of that game with a win.

1080
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 2: Michigan's defense playing better of late, but what offense have

1081
00:49:18,160 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 2: they played? Wisconsin was the only really good one in

1082
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:24,720
Speaker 2: Wisconsin drilled them. So this line has just inflated because

1083
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 2: you know, I assumed that Iowa and Penn State should

1084
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:30,839
Speaker 2: have been a coin flip in Iowa City last week,

1085
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 2: and pent State's about three points better than Iowa, and

1086
00:49:33,760 --> 00:49:36,359
Speaker 2: I was confirmed that my thoughts were confirmed in that game.

1087
00:49:36,560 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 2: You know, if you look at Iowa, Iowa was what

1088
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 2: a three three and a half point dog at Michigan,

1089
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 2: and now Michigan's catching nine here at Penn State. I

1090
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 2: just don't know if I trust this Michigan offense and

1091
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 2: shape Patterson. He's just been awful. You know, the environment

1092
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 2: will be raucous. I think it's Michigan or nothing based

1093
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 2: on value, But I don't know if I've seen enough,

1094
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 2: and it's a horriball spot that he just hasn't won

1095
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 2: well in ann Arbor. What do you see here?

1096
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's been State or nothing. The problem is,

1097
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,320
Speaker 3: I think it's thin gets inflated. I think it should

1098
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:03,399
Speaker 3: be six and a half. But they're calling for a

1099
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,760
Speaker 3: wide out seismic event. That's exactly what Franklin said. Everybody,

1100
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 3: come bring your white and we're gonna make it a

1101
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 3: seismic event. We're gonna sell the place out and we're

1102
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:13,320
Speaker 3: gonna be rocking. So, you know, Penn State's third and havoc.

1103
00:50:13,440 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 3: Michigan's offense moving up to fifty fifth and havoc allowed.

1104
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 3: They were austrocious to start the season. I think Michigan's

1105
00:50:19,000 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 3: gonna have problems again holding onto the ball. Penn State's

1106
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 3: defense is for real, you know, their third opponent, I'm sorry,

1107
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:27,800
Speaker 3: opportunity rate third and stuff. Right, they're getting into the backfield.

1108
00:50:27,800 --> 00:50:30,600
Speaker 3: Shae Patterson should be in passing downs. Quick second down

1109
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 3: should probably always be a passing down to them. You know,

1110
00:50:33,320 --> 00:50:36,919
Speaker 3: I think finishing drives is the biggest key to this game,

1111
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:39,480
Speaker 3: and that favors Penn State because when Michigan gets into

1112
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:41,919
Speaker 3: a podent territory, they've just been They've been terrible. Penn

1113
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:44,720
Speaker 3: State is seventh in red zone scoring percentage. Penn State's

1114
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 3: defense is fifteenth in red zone points allowed, Michigan's one

1115
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:50,960
Speaker 3: hundred and third in red zone points per attempt, lots

1116
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,719
Speaker 3: of field goals. They have settled for a lot less

1117
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:55,560
Speaker 3: points than what they should have got for as far

1118
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 3: as their offensive got them. So Penn Sainate minus nine

1119
00:50:58,280 --> 00:51:01,239
Speaker 3: might be a small investment. But putting Penn State as

1120
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 3: a money line with some of these others I mentioned

1121
00:51:03,400 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 3: during the podcast is going to be the bigger play.

1122
00:51:05,600 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 2: Now.

1123
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 3: I'm going to put those on the Action App. Don't

1124
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,360
Speaker 3: worry about it. I'm still working on the numbers and

1125
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 3: waiting for him to settle and all that. But you know,

1126
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 3: things like Penn State, Oklahoma State, SMU, those are the

1127
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,480
Speaker 3: ones that I'm saying favorite money line for the week.

1128
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:18,759
Speaker 2: Fair enough, we'll have all these marquee games who have

1129
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:21,319
Speaker 2: in depth right ups on Actionnework dot Com in the

1130
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:23,839
Speaker 2: Action App, so make sure you check out. Those will

1131
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 2: go way more in depth. Kyle and myself, Kyle Miller,

1132
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about another game here. Two PAC

1133
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:33,160
Speaker 2: twelve games will go through quickly. Oregon, Washington, Oregon. It

1134
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: looks like there's still three point favorites ticked down sometimes

1135
00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 2: tick back up three point favorite at Washington. You know

1136
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,800
Speaker 2: what I can't get over is this Washington defense is

1137
00:51:39,840 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 2: just not the same. I know Arizona last week was

1138
00:51:42,400 --> 00:51:45,440
Speaker 2: just kind of beating themselves, and there are two losses.

1139
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 2: Easton looked so bad against Stanford and against cal who

1140
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 2: got pressure on them. And I know Oregon's going to

1141
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:54,200
Speaker 2: bring a ton of pressure. Javon holland their star safety,

1142
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 2: who I love, looks like he's healthy. I thought he

1143
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 2: was going to be out for a while in that

1144
00:51:57,920 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 2: game last week. Now Oregon isn't the same team on

1145
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 2: the road. That is what scares me. I think I

1146
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 2: might end up staying away here. I might get involved live.

1147
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,400
Speaker 2: But you like the Huskies here, right, Yeah? I do.

1148
00:52:08,600 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 3: And you know, first, when the first number first came out,

1149
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,080
Speaker 3: I said, wow, this is way off my projection of

1150
00:52:13,120 --> 00:52:14,800
Speaker 3: minus two and a half. And I know other people

1151
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,800
Speaker 3: have this at a pick, and I know the oddsmaker

1152
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:19,720
Speaker 3: has had it at a pick because this thing balloooned

1153
00:52:19,760 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 3: out to Oregon minus three. You know, I get into

1154
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 3: the narrative that Organ is terrible on the road and

1155
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:26,760
Speaker 3: Washington is good at home. But hey, that's the truth.

1156
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 3: Organ's had three wins in the past twelve road games.

1157
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:31,239
Speaker 3: Washington's nineteen and one the last twenty games a home.

1158
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 3: My problem with Oregon now, I'm not going to talk

1159
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 3: about the defense. I think the defense is stellar, it's outstanding.

1160
00:52:36,200 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 3: It's at Andy Avolos, you know, Broyles Award winner, he

1161
00:52:39,480 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 3: should I mean at least he should be up for consideration.

1162
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 3: They've been fantastic their top ten and tackles for loss,

1163
00:52:44,239 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 3: but Washington's offensive line is within the top twenty and

1164
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 3: havoc allowed, and they have not allowed a lot of

1165
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:53,439
Speaker 3: tackles for loss whatsoever. They've kept Easton fairly clean. They've

1166
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 3: kept the running game at least to get up to

1167
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 3: the line of scrimmage, as they ranked fourteenth and stuff rate.

1168
00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,839
Speaker 3: So Washington's done a good job of keeping defenders out

1169
00:52:59,880 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 3: of the backfield, unlike Auburn, organ was all over them.

1170
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:06,000
Speaker 3: My problem is the Oregon offense and the offensive coordator

1171
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 3: Marcus Arroyo, Mario Christobal. They're not explosive. You have a

1172
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 3: Ferrari in the garage and his name is Justin Herbert,

1173
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 3: and your passing explosiveness is seventy fifth in the country.

1174
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 3: This conservative play calling, this crap with Georgia and Oregon.

1175
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,399
Speaker 3: This conservative play calling in standard downs is what keeps

1176
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:26,440
Speaker 3: the cow game and the Stanford game close for Oregon.

1177
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:28,760
Speaker 3: It's what kept the Notre Dame game close for Georgia.

1178
00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:30,480
Speaker 3: I mean, it gets you into a lot of trouble here,

1179
00:53:30,560 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 3: and that's my problem here. So I'm taking Washington the

1180
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:36,320
Speaker 3: points and then they will be in my round robin

1181
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:37,600
Speaker 3: dog parlay for sure.

1182
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 2: Yep, we'll have a right up for that game as well.

1183
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:43,000
Speaker 2: Keep in mind that there, you know, Oregon's potential All

1184
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 2: American tight end, Jacob Breland, their most reliable bass catcher,

1185
00:53:46,880 --> 00:53:48,920
Speaker 2: is also out for the year. That's a huge loss.

1186
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:52,760
Speaker 2: They also lost their Cumberlander, their great defensive end recently.

1187
00:53:53,000 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 2: Those are two big losses for the Ducks. By the way,

1188
00:53:57,160 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 2: one other thing Vanderbilt I also Akron hasn't covered. Vanderbilt

1189
00:54:00,480 --> 00:54:02,560
Speaker 2: hasn't covered. I wanted to mention them just that there.

1190
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt is twenty one point underdogs the Missouri. I just

1191
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:08,319
Speaker 2: wanted to stay to Cale Garrett, who's out for the year.

1192
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,239
Speaker 2: One of the best linebackers football. I love watching him

1193
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 2: play on Missouri. I hated to see it anyway. The

1194
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 2: last game we wanted to cover year in the Marquet Games,

1195
00:54:14,400 --> 00:54:17,840
Speaker 2: Arizona State Utah. Look, this line is really sharp. It

1196
00:54:17,880 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 2: was a good spot, something that we've been waiting to.

1197
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: We been wanting to play Utah in this spot. Thirteen

1198
00:54:22,040 --> 00:54:24,879
Speaker 2: and a half point favorites. The over runners crashed here

1199
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:28,399
Speaker 2: could be some wind and weather two good defenses too,

1200
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 2: teams that want to run the ball. If this gets

1201
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 2: a fourteen to bove off the seriously, look at Arizona State.

1202
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:36,239
Speaker 2: Herm Edwards has faced fourteen Power five opponents since he's

1203
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:39,239
Speaker 2: got the tempee. Twelve of them have ended in one possession,

1204
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:41,760
Speaker 2: decided in the final minutes. He just you know, people

1205
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:43,760
Speaker 2: want to give him shit, but he has a great

1206
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:46,319
Speaker 2: staff and he's a good coach. You know, he's a

1207
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 2: great defensive coordinator with Gonzales Marvin Lewis one of the

1208
00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 2: best defensive coordinators in NFL history. It's just an assistant

1209
00:54:55,080 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 2: on the team. They come up with great game plans.

1210
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 2: So in a game I think might be lower scoring

1211
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,879
Speaker 2: than the line implies, I might look at this gets

1212
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:04,399
Speaker 2: to fourteen or above. What do you see here?

1213
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:06,279
Speaker 3: I think people don't realize that Herm is that loss

1214
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:08,600
Speaker 3: of pac twelve game by more than seven points. That's

1215
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:11,959
Speaker 3: a crazy stat. After a sluggish, you know, offensive games

1216
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 3: against sax State and Michigan State, Jalen Daniels, he's really

1217
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 3: been great through the air and that might have a

1218
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 3: little bit of success against Utah. I mean, you think

1219
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:22,279
Speaker 3: of defensing passing success rate of ninety first think of

1220
00:55:22,360 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 3: Matt Fink and USC just you know, deep bombs rainbows

1221
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,360
Speaker 3: over the Utah defense. I don't think there's any value

1222
00:55:28,360 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 3: in the side for me. I got it at twelve

1223
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 3: and a half. Obviously there is value on Arizona State

1224
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 3: at fourteen or above. But I project this number to

1225
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 3: be around fifty for the total. And yeah it is

1226
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:38,320
Speaker 3: dipping because of the weather, but there's varying reports fifty

1227
00:55:38,320 --> 00:55:41,600
Speaker 3: percent thunderstorms wind involved. I'm going to wait to see

1228
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:43,840
Speaker 3: what happens with that precipitation because I mean there's a

1229
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:46,959
Speaker 3: chance that it might not happen. There'll be a clear

1230
00:55:47,040 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 3: report early Saturday morning, you know, and both offenses are

1231
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 3: going to be able to get the underneath pass. I

1232
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 3: think with Arizona State's three three five, they're going to

1233
00:55:55,800 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 3: confuse Tyler Huntay a little bit. But there, you know,

1234
00:55:58,320 --> 00:55:59,560
Speaker 3: I think it's going to end turn up to be

1235
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:02,200
Speaker 3: a lot of dumpouts and everything. But forty four is

1236
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:04,360
Speaker 3: low for the you know kind of defenses that we

1237
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:07,319
Speaker 3: got here. So I just think if the weather clears up,

1238
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:09,440
Speaker 3: then I think that an over forty four would be

1239
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:10,239
Speaker 3: the best way to play.

1240
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 2: Fair enough, and like I said, we'll have right up

1241
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:13,759
Speaker 2: at in depth, right up for that game before we

1242
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 2: get out of here, let's go three and out.

1243
00:56:17,560 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 3: Well, let's make it a quick three and out.

1244
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,400
Speaker 2: All right, let's we'll start with Friday Night lights.

1245
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:28,600
Speaker 1: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1246
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:33,880
Speaker 2: Hey, let's go play some football. Give me your favorite

1247
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:35,320
Speaker 2: Friday Night.

1248
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 3: Matt Pitt, Pitt's fifth and Havoc. Syracuse's offenses ninety six

1249
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:40,400
Speaker 3: and havoc allowed. Take Pitt.

1250
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:42,960
Speaker 2: I come on a couple q s D backs. I

1251
00:56:43,000 --> 00:56:45,120
Speaker 2: wrote that up to see if they're gonna be eligible

1252
00:56:45,120 --> 00:56:48,040
Speaker 2: to outstanding freshmen one freshman All American Cisco, which I

1253
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:50,680
Speaker 2: think will help their defensive backfield. Two great defenses in

1254
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 2: that game, and you're right, Pitt's offense has been better,

1255
00:56:52,840 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 2: but don't sleep on. The special teams have had is

1256
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:57,399
Speaker 2: for qs E enormous in that game, Pitt's special teams

1257
00:56:57,400 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 2: have been disastrous. I'll also throw shout out for the

1258
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:04,799
Speaker 2: UNLB Fresdo under Marshall. Yeah, I think Marshall at anything

1259
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:06,920
Speaker 2: five and a half or above. All right, let's move

1260
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:09,080
Speaker 2: on to second down here and go with our favorite overdog.

1261
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:11,719
Speaker 2: For though it's not familiar, that means favorite. We had

1262
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:13,759
Speaker 2: a voicemail caller call it and say you need to

1263
00:57:13,760 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 2: start betting more overdogs, thinking the opposite of an underdog

1264
00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:18,360
Speaker 2: is an overdog. Well that's not how it works, but

1265
00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:20,720
Speaker 2: we adopted it here on the podcast. I think we

1266
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:23,400
Speaker 2: have the same one here. I'm going Oklahoma, I had

1267
00:57:23,440 --> 00:57:26,760
Speaker 2: better first half and for the game, and it's gonna

1268
00:57:26,760 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 2: float around on the dead zone between thirty one and

1269
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,760
Speaker 2: thirty four. Austin Kendall's questionable the quarterback for West Virginia.

1270
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:34,720
Speaker 2: They are down to just all freshmen, and there's suspensions

1271
00:57:34,720 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 2: in their secondary. It's a nightmare their turnover pro and

1272
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 2: the Oklahoma defense is obviously much approved. I think they

1273
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 2: come out with a focused effort after you know, kind

1274
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:45,960
Speaker 2: of execution was really bad last week against Texas. So

1275
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 2: I think Oklahoma rolls West Virginia here after they've played

1276
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:51,320
Speaker 2: Iowa State in Texas. I think they're a little exhausted

1277
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:54,160
Speaker 2: here for noonkick eleven am local, and it's the fourth

1278
00:57:54,200 --> 00:57:56,520
Speaker 2: straight week that Oklahoma's played in this time slot, while

1279
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 2: West Virginia has to travel for it. So I think

1280
00:57:58,360 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 2: Oklahoma rolls.

1281
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:02,920
Speaker 3: It's called the old dog parlay absolutely Oklahoma in this spot.

1282
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 3: Two Red zone turnovers for Jalen Hurts. He was upset

1283
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:08,160
Speaker 3: about it after the game. It's all he could think about.

1284
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 3: I expect a get healthy game this week. OUs have

1285
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 3: ac great is thirty second, that defense is legit and real.

1286
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 3: West Virginia one hundred and eighth and havoc allowed. Oklahoma

1287
00:58:16,760 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 3: is going to put it up on them. I think

1288
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 3: I just talked myself into a first half.

1289
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:22,720
Speaker 2: Bet yup, I already bet them minus twenty and a half.

1290
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 2: And finally, third down underdog money line parlay.

1291
00:58:28,600 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1292
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay. I'm rolling with

1293
00:58:36,920 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 2: two lane. I already mentioned them plus one forty five

1294
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 2: plus one fifty. Who you rolling with here?

1295
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:43,440
Speaker 3: South Carolina already mentioned it plus one eighty.

1296
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 2: There we go. That's your money line underdog parlay of

1297
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:48,560
Speaker 2: the week. We've hit one every single week, so hopefully

1298
00:58:48,600 --> 00:58:51,320
Speaker 2: we could finally marry them this week. Thanks for listening,

1299
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 2: Thanks for joining me, Colin. Make sure you rate review,

1300
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:57,320
Speaker 2: Tell a friend you know the deal. Don't forget about

1301
00:58:57,320 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 2: the voicemail line this weekend.

1302
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 3: Cheers out,