WEBVTT - NFL Divisional Round Best Bets (Ep. 73) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:16.640 Hey, everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL podcast. 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:18.840 I'm your host Dan Harris with me is Matt Perrault. 0:00:18.920 --> 0:00:21.200 Find us on Twitter at Dan Harris ad and at 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:23.200 Sports Talk Matt. Matt, how are you? 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:27.320 We got T shirts for the Daily Juice. I'm great. 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:30.000 You are so excited about the Daily Juice T shirts. 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:30.200 I know. 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:33.120 Look, if you listen to this, you hopefully listen to 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:35.479 Daily Juice, which we talked about a lot. Daily podcast 0:00:35.479 --> 0:00:38.479 hosted by Matt finally got T shirts that everybody has 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:40.720 been asking about. You can find them at fantasypros dot 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:44.320 com slash shop. Just look for the newest items. It's 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:46.720 one of our newest I mean, Matt on Discord, they 0:00:46.720 --> 0:00:49.320 were going like hot gigs. I mean I checked in 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:52.120 on your the Daily Juice channel and everybody just like, 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.520 I got two. I'm getting one here. I like this. 0:00:54.920 --> 0:00:58.080 I've already gotten requests for sweatshirts. People in Chicago were like, 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.640 I need sweatshirts. It's too I was like, you want sweatshirt? 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:04.959 I was like, let's walk first, Okay, Like I just 0:01:04.959 --> 0:01:08.160 just got the T shirts, Like eventually hats, Eventually we'll 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.839 get sweatshirts. We'll get all sorts of fun stuff going. 0:01:10.880 --> 0:01:13.760 And people were like throwing out slogans they want on 0:01:13.840 --> 0:01:16.120 the back of the shirt and whatnot, Like all right, 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:19.319 like we'll have runs one, two, and three. This is 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:20.959 just like the beginning, just the start. 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:24.720 Well, I were producer of this show. Clinton hard working 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:26.960 guy and begged me not to throw him shot up, 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:29.400 but I am anyway, was the one who finally got 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.000 the shirts up and running, and he produces the show, 0:01:32.040 --> 0:01:33.720 so he's listening. So Clinton, you got it. Now we 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:37.240 need everything. We need hats, we need sweatshirts, we need slogans, 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:38.800 so we will get on that. Shud. 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:40.520 Sorry the record, Clinton, I'm very happy you just have 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:42.400 the T shirts. Well, thank you for so. 0:01:42.440 --> 0:01:45.000 Matt WANs more. Matt wants more. It's very clear he 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:47.840 is not satisfied until he's got like her. I don't know, 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:49.680 he's got a banner flying it, you know, with an 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:52.040 airplane or something like that. All right, let's get into it. 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:54.240 It's the divisional rounds to only four games, so it's 0:01:54.240 --> 0:01:56.000 probably gonna be a little bit of a shorter show 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:59.600 than usual, but we'll break down each game. But last week, Matt, 0:01:59.640 --> 0:02:02.880 we were really not not we did not have last week. 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:05.360 I don't think most people had last week correct as 0:02:05.360 --> 0:02:07.680 far as I could tell. But let's just talk about 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:11.960 the official picks that we made yesterday, and we have 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:15.000 to if we don't have to, actually, would you prefer 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:16.440 to skip? It? 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:17.640 Were better? 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:20.600 Your yours were better than mine. My official picks were 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:23.640 we did one spread, one over under, and one teaser. 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:25.800 My spread was the Bills lank six and a half. 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:29.000 That was wrong. My over under was the Bucks and 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:31.359 the Washington football team under forty four and a half, 0:02:31.400 --> 0:02:33.920 which was a loss. Thankfully. My two team teazer did hit, 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.480 which was the Bills down to only a pick which 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.400 was half a point. That was pretty close, and the 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:41.000 Bucks down to lane two and a half. So that 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:43.280 did hit. Matt. You had the Steelers laying five and 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:45.040 a half in that game, forget about. I don't even 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:46.560 know what to say. And that was on me. I 0:02:46.680 --> 0:02:49.559 was you were very much like I have some minor trepidation, 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:51.760 and I was like, why they have no coach, They're 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.760 not practiceding, it's gonna be great. That was ridiculous. You 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:57.440 had the Bills at the podcast, Matt, you had it 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:00.359 over fifty one. So that's a push, right, you added 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:01.200 fifty one and a half. 0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:03.200 I bet the and a half. It was just the 0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:05.800 story of my last two weeks has been half unit losses. 0:03:05.840 --> 0:03:06.640 It's been brutal. 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:08.919 Well, you also hate your teaser, which was the Bill's 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:10.799 minus half a point and the Rams getting nine and 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.160 a half. I have already bet a two team teaser, 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:15.320 so I will give that later. But let's start it off. 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.079 Let's go to the Rams visiting the Packers. That's the 0:03:18.080 --> 0:03:20.160 first game of the week. Right now, the Packers are 0:03:20.240 --> 0:03:22.440 laying six and a half points. A little surprising to 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:24.840 me that this hasn't jumped back up to seven, because 0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:27.560 it kind of has been back and forth a little bit. 0:03:27.639 --> 0:03:29.119 So it's at six and a half. I'm not saying 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:31.000 it's a bad line. I just think that they're from 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:33.840 what I could tell, the Packers seem to be pretty 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:36.560 heavily bet considering all the issues that are going on. 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:40.960 So why so let's let's play bookmaker? Yes, why wouldn't 0:03:41.080 --> 0:03:44.040 If the line is six and a half stagnant and 0:03:44.120 --> 0:03:47.160 all the money's coming in on the Packers, what does 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:47.960 that tell you. 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.640 That what that the books think that the Rams are 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:53.680 going to cover? All? Right? 0:03:53.760 --> 0:03:57.240 Yeah, the are live here in this game. 0:03:57.720 --> 0:03:59.800 Do you think that they're got that that bookmakers think 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:01.000 that chance to win the game? 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:01.440 Yes? 0:04:02.720 --> 0:04:05.360 Goodness? All right, So first of all, the over unders 0:04:05.360 --> 0:04:10.040 at forty five and a half. Here's the deal. Wolford 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.600 is out right, he's been ruled out completely. So it's 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:16.560 Goff with Blake Bortles. Back them up Goff as much 0:04:16.600 --> 0:04:18.280 as they want. You were on that game, Matt. You 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.359 you had a good feel for that Rams game. We 0:04:20.400 --> 0:04:21.880 both liked him at three and a half for sure, 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:23.800 but you did think that they had the chance to 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.200 win out right. Their defense is legitimate. I guess Aaron 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:29.159 Donald today was taking off the injury report. I still 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:32.000 find it very difficult to believe that he's one hundred 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:35.159 percent healthy, particularly with the cold whatever he's got, with 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:38.600 the rib injury. Cooper Cup is battling, you know, the knee. 0:04:38.760 --> 0:04:40.960 You've got Jared Goff who kind of looked like he 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:43.600 was me pushing the ball, you know, down the field, 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:46.360 and just I don't know, I'm surprised. I guess that 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.320 the that they think it's like, have you talked to anybody, 0:04:48.320 --> 0:04:49.880 do you have a good sense of why? And do 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.159 you think that the Rams are alive to win this game. 0:04:52.279 --> 0:04:54.720 Yes, I think the Rams are allowed to win the game. 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:56.839 I think the Rams are allowed to cover the spread. 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:00.800 And the number is seven. So so last week on 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:04.040 the podcast, everybody was talking to me about the Washington 0:05:04.080 --> 0:05:06.880 football team and Tempa Bay Bucks, right, and I told 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.159 everybody here on the podcast the number was nine. Nine 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:12.320 was the number where the bad guys were coming in 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:15.520 and dropping large sums. What did the line? What did 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:19.800 the game end at? Eight? Okay, same thing here. Seven's 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:22.560 the number. It went to seven for like a second 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:24.960 in Vegas and they got it, just blitzed with money, 0:05:25.160 --> 0:05:28.679 tons of money on plus seven. That's the number I want. 0:05:28.839 --> 0:05:31.120 I want plus seven. I may have to buy it 0:05:31.200 --> 0:05:34.919 to get there. Yeah, seven is the number for the Rams. 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:37.719 And then it comes down to whether or not that 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:40.760 defense can turn the football over. I think it's a 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:42.880 twenty four to twenty type of victory. I think the 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:45.600 number for the total is right there. I wouldn't touch that, 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.479 I wouldn't go near it, but I think you might go, well, 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:52.840 how are the Rams gonna score? One? Akers running the football? 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:57.279 Two dink and dunk? Okay, and look it's Lambeau. Could 0:05:57.360 --> 0:05:59.800 we get a freak snowstorm. Could we get really cold. 0:06:00.240 --> 0:06:02.200 I mean, let's see what the weather looks like before 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.919 we bet it. But the worse the weather, the better 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:07.640 it is here, in my opinion, for the Rams defense 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:09.920 to be able to keep the game close, Ramsey could 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.800 take away potentially. Now you could say Ramsey does great 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:16.080 against DK Metcalf. DeVante Adams is a different story. He's 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:18.600 quick twitch, he's very smooth, he's very quick in and 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.960 out of the brakes. He's tough to guard crue true, 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:23.840 but if footing's a problem, Ramsey may be able to 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:25.440 stay with them a little bit more. And if you 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:27.360 take him out of the equation and you make somebody 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.160 else beat you. I'm not saying that there aren't mvs 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:32.640 can't do it, but I think the Rams are pretty comfortable, 0:06:32.839 --> 0:06:36.240 you know, worrying about MBS versus DeVante Adams here, So 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:39.680 I just wonder about possessions. Can the Rams keep the 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:42.720 football away and can the Rams not turn the ball over? 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:45.000 That is the biggest It's a key in every game, 0:06:45.080 --> 0:06:46.680 but to me, it's the biggest key in this game. 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:48.760 If they don't turn the ball over, they're going to 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:49.320 be in the game. 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:53.480 Yeah, this is I think you have it right. Everything 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.160 you've said I think is exactly right. If I am 0:06:56.200 --> 0:06:58.320 forced to pick a side on the total, which again 0:06:58.360 --> 0:07:01.040 I think is right on at forty five and a half, 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:03.440 I actually kind of would lean under. I'm very gun 0:07:03.560 --> 0:07:06.360 shy on unders right now because of last week where 0:07:06.640 --> 0:07:08.120 it felt like right, it felt like there were a 0:07:08.120 --> 0:07:10.880 couple of unders and just didn't really come close. So 0:07:11.000 --> 0:07:12.880 with this one, though, I do think because I think 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:14.600 you're right, I think you're going to see a whole 0:07:14.640 --> 0:07:17.080 lot of cam akers as you have seen over the 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:20.119 last several weeks for the Rams, but especially with Goff. 0:07:20.160 --> 0:07:23.240 And again that is how you attack Green Bay is 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.720 their run defense. Now, I think that it The issue 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:29.800 for me is if Cup is not healthy for this game, 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.800 even if he plays, but he's limited in this game, 0:07:33.000 --> 0:07:35.120 then you're gonna be able to stick j R. Alexander 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:37.400 on Robert Woods and you're going to be able to 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:39.960 kind of sell out to stop the run and then say, 0:07:39.960 --> 0:07:42.160 all right, Jared Goff, we're going to take away your 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:46.080 one legitimate wide receiver. Good luck beating us elsewhere, you know, 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:48.880 And if they can do that, then they can do that. 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:52.240 But I don't see the Rams being able to put 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:54.360 up a ton of points in this game absence some 0:07:54.400 --> 0:07:56.600 sort of defensive score, which you can't really count on 0:07:56.840 --> 0:07:59.640 with Rogers. But the reason I kind of lean towards 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:02.280 the under is that exact thing, which is they're gonna 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:04.440 run the ball time, that's gonna bleed the clock as 0:08:04.480 --> 0:08:07.120 much as possible. And I don't think that the Packers 0:08:07.160 --> 0:08:09.000 are going to be able to just drive down the 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.240 field that you know, you've seen these games, right the 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:14.760 Bucks game with Rogers right where Oh my goodness, what 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.040 in the world you get pressure on Rogers every once 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:18.640 in a while, and now all of a sudden, that 0:08:18.640 --> 0:08:22.560 Green Bay offense doesn't really work. So for me, I 0:08:22.760 --> 0:08:24.680 lean the under, but I wouldn't touch it because I think, 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:27.040 you know, forty five and a half, just with the 0:08:27.080 --> 0:08:29.040 way the game is right now, I wouldn't go near 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.080 it if I had to choose the side. Are you 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:33.680 basically saying that you're staying away from the side unless 0:08:33.720 --> 0:08:36.360 it gets to seven, in which case you take the Rams. 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:39.920 Right, I need seven. I want seven to feel comfortable 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:42.280 because I am concerned about the ability for the Rams 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:45.719 to score. I think people who are questioning saying I 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:48.520 don't see the Rams scoring more than seventeen points. I'll 0:08:48.520 --> 0:08:50.720 give you that. I think I think the total is right. 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:51.959 I think the Rams are gonna have to play the 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:54.480 game that they played last week, and they're gonna have 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.559 to play defense. And their defense is you know, they 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:00.880 need short fields. They need Aaron Donald to be Aaron Donald, 0:09:00.920 --> 0:09:02.520 whether he's a one hundred percent or not. They need 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:05.280 him to be double teamed, and they got to be, 0:09:05.760 --> 0:09:08.800 you know, making the Packers worry about him every single 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:12.120 snap and then other players go and make plays and 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:16.760 hopefully you know, either pressure Rogers or stripsacks or whatnot 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:20.720 and get after it. Rogers is you know, it's always 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:22.920 difficult to look at him off of a bye week, 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:25.120 in the cold weather, in the playoffs. I mean, just 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:28.280 there are a ton of things pushing that the Packers 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:32.000 are going to be extremely public in every teaser. This 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:35.360 is the Steelers all over again. Okay, everyone is teasing 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:37.280 this game down to a half a point and taking 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:40.800 the Packers. So that's my only concern about this game 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:44.520 is just the numbers not moving, and there the liability 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:46.880 keeps on stacking up and up and up. And I've 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:49.960 been a fan of this Rams team all year, and 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.280 I just wish it was John Whalferd because if it 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.480 was John Walford a quarterback, I would I would be 0:09:54.520 --> 0:09:55.920 taking the Rams outright. 0:09:56.360 --> 0:09:59.240 That's actually what I was a little surprised that. I 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:03.719 thought when Walford wouldn't was declared out that that might 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:06.959 move into seven right right, it still didn't. 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:09.400 Nothing, not even a tick, not even touch nothing. I 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:11.800 was like, okay, that's interesting. 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:14.079 Out of curiosity. Do you know what it's going to 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:16.079 take to buy the half a point to get from 0:10:16.120 --> 0:10:16.720 six and a half to. 0:10:16.840 --> 0:10:19.760 Probably be one thirty to forty would be my guest 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:23.199 would be somewhere in that general range in terms of cost. 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:24.800 I mean, it's not going to be cheap to do it, 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:29.480 but I think in terms of avoiding losing versus pushing, 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:31.120 it might be worth it. 0:10:31.400 --> 0:10:33.720 Yeah. No, no, I get it. I because I have 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:36.560 not been so basically to sum it up as much 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.920 as possible, I don't love either anything in this game, 0:10:40.080 --> 0:10:41.959 like just where it is right now at six and 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:43.920 a half and at forty five and a half, I 0:10:44.000 --> 0:10:48.920 don't like it either side. I lean the under really, 0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:50.480 I just don't have a good sense. I think the 0:10:50.520 --> 0:10:52.520 Packers are going to win this game, okay, and I 0:10:52.840 --> 0:10:55.920 could see it being you know, a you know, a 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:58.880 double digit win for the Packers, but it is so public, 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:01.080 and you're right, I mean that just screams tease us 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:03.520 down to a half point, right and then so for 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:05.319 that makes me a little nervous. 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:08.240 So scary, that's what's scary. See the thing about right 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:11.720 now is all of the data, all the information. These 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:16.040 lines are as razors sharp as they of all year. 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:19.600 This is the weekend the public gets destroyed. Last weekend 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:21.520 that got destroyed too, But this is normally the weekend 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.560 they get annihilated because all the data. You just see 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:28.520 that line, it looks so tempting. Oh Packers under a touchdown? 0:11:28.600 --> 0:11:31.680 Oh Rogers, of course, how are they gonna score? And 0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:33.079 then we're gonna be sitting here. It's gonna be like 0:11:33.120 --> 0:11:35.200 a twenty one seventeen type of game. And it's like, 0:11:35.320 --> 0:11:37.160 oh they knew right? 0:11:37.559 --> 0:11:39.720 Yeah, no, I I get it. I mean I wonder 0:11:39.760 --> 0:11:41.360 whether or not if you do involvement in the teaser, 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:43.080 would you rather tease the rams up? 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:45.960 Yes? Twelve and a half, I would, yes, and I would, 0:11:46.000 --> 0:11:47.839 and again I would hope that we can you cross 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:49.760 a key number of seven across key number of ten, 0:11:50.040 --> 0:11:51.800 so the couple of key numbers you cross there by 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.920 doing that. But it's it's a hard it's a hard game. 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:57.280 I'm looking at debate that it's a really hard game. 0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:00.280 Yeah, yeah, I agree. It's one that I don't really 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:01.920 want to go near. And I'd feel a lot better 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:04.760 about it if this doesn't feel like they're just begging 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.880 you to do to take the Packers and to tease 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.559 the Packers down to half a point. That does make 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:12.400 me worried. I do still think that the Packers are 0:12:12.400 --> 0:12:14.760 going to win this game. That's particularly true because I 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:17.800 don't believe. I'm glad Donald is off the injury report, 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:19.640 but you saw him last week. That dude's like the 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.679 toughest due in the NFL. He really struggled last week. 0:12:22.679 --> 0:12:24.360 It's hard for me to believe that he's one hundred percent, 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:27.079 particularly going now to the cold and you've got Cup 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:29.600 and now you've got golf like all of that. Just 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:31.640 as sort of I can't talk myself into the Packers. 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.120 Let's go to the next game. Interesting one. I'm interested 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:36.040 here how you feel you've been fading the bills for 0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:38.480 most of the year. You've got the Ravens visiting the Bills. 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:41.600 Right now, the Bills are laying two and a half, 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:43.400 which has kind of bounced back and forth a little 0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:45.440 bit between two and two and a half. The total. 0:12:45.760 --> 0:12:47.920 What I'm saying is it's dropped now to forty nine 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:49.720 and a half. It was fifty when I looked early 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:51.120 in the day. So what do you think of this game? 0:12:52.000 --> 0:12:56.200 I'm all over the Ravens, all all over the Ravens. 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:02.280 This is where having a outdoor game in Buffalo, New 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:06.240 York burns the Bills because they're not built for it. 0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.840 It's cold, it's not gonna be nice. You got an 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.800 issue with the knee for Cold Beasley. You've got a 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:15.559 defense that's got a secondary that's playing really well, that 0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.440 can take away digs, and you're gonna put it on 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.400 a running game that only is the quarterback. Because of 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:26.000 injury and ineffectiveness for the Buffalo Bills, the Ravens were 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:29.160 the best team going into this year. Everyone loved the Ravens. 0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:31.720 They had COVID problems, they had bad losses, they didn't 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:34.640 look right. Well, they're right now, and I think having 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.719 a running quarterback in this type of weather. This is 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:39.680 the guy you want, This is the play you want, 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:41.319 This is the MODI, this is what you want to 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:44.000 have happen. You want a guy like Lamar Jackson in 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:46.440 the game in a cold weather situation. I know he 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.440 doesn't like the cold. I don't care. Okay, in his career, 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.240 I think under forty degrees, he's seven to zho straight 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:54.559 up in temperatures below forty. So it's not like he 0:13:54.640 --> 0:13:57.520 can't play in this game. I this is just you 0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:00.480 can say, Matt, it's a typical fading of of Jared. 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:02.680 Josh Allens is going to come back and burn me. 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:05.760 But if I may have to buy it to three, 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:07.880 but I will be on the Ravens money line in 0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:08.319 this game. 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:12.160 Yeah, I don't have a great feel for it. Again, 0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:14.120 like I hate to say that if I do go 0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:16.880 one way, I do kind of lean the under, just 0:14:16.960 --> 0:14:19.600 because I think that, you know, forty nine and a half, 0:14:19.680 --> 0:14:22.240 just again betting on I haven't bet the under. I'm 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.120 probably not gonna bet the under. I lean the under, 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.440 but again, betting unders. Right now, I'm doing whatever I 0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:28.400 can to avoid it because it's just not where we are. 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.800 But you know, I think these teams kind of match up, 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:35.960 at least defensively pretty well. I mean, the Ravens defense 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:39.240 is playing very, very solid football at this point. I 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.560 mean you saw Derek Henry couldn't do anything, and again 0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:43.560 you mentioned it correctly. The Bills can't run the ball, 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:45.960 and Zach Moss's out anyway, and he is their better runner. 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.200 So it's just going to be Devin Singletary, maybe TJ. Yeldon. 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:53.080 Josh Allen is fantastic, Stefan Diggs is fantastic. They'll find 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:56.320 a way to put up points because their offense is creative, 0:14:56.400 --> 0:14:58.440 you know, with their system and everything like that. The 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:01.160 Ravens obviously you attack the Bills for the most part. 0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:04.320 The Bills defense, when you just step back from it, 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:06.760 you're like, well, this doesn't match up well, Like we 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:09.640 have a great outside corner. But really, like, even if 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:12.280 you take away Hollywood Brown, depending on where Hollywood Brown 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:14.640 runs out of, they're not great against tight ends necessarily. 0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:17.080 I mean, they're not a complete shutdown defense against tight ends. 0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:19.040 Mark Andrews should be fine in the game. They don't 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:22.240 stop the run particularly well. The Ravens love to run, 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:25.640 so on paper, it doesn't look like a fantastic matchup. 0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:28.360 But you remember last year the Bills weren't that great 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:30.480 against the run either, and they played the Ravens I 0:15:30.520 --> 0:15:33.720 think last year, and they they held Lamar in check 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.840 for the most part, you know, not completely shut them down, 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.120 but they know how to play this offense. So I 0:15:40.160 --> 0:15:41.560 do think that this is going to be a game 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.240 that's going to be generally speaking, pretty low scoring, a 0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:46.800 little bit like the Titans and then and the Ravens. 0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:48.680 So I kind of lean towards the ender. If I 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.720 had to pick a side, I don't. I don't have 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:54.360 a great feel for it. Matt, Like, I mean, you're confident, 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:57.920 I mean confident in quotation marks you confident that the 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:01.000 Ravens are going to win this game? Yes, okay, is 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:04.680 this your favorite play of the week Ravens? No? Oh, okay, 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:08.680 very good. Then I will I will put it out 0:16:08.680 --> 0:16:12.360 there that if I'm forced to choose a side, I'm 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.800 gonna go with the Bills. And this is not I 0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.280 don't feel great about it. And again I'm just being 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.000 as honest with you guys as possible. I have not 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:21.720 bet this game, like I haven't because I don't have 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:23.480 a good feel for it. I can see the Ravens. 0:16:23.600 --> 0:16:28.600 But I do see a scenario where the Bills kind 0:16:28.600 --> 0:16:31.080 of just completely sell out to stop the run. And look, 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.000 the Titans kind of did the same thing last week, 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:35.080 and they did they held him in check until they 0:16:35.080 --> 0:16:38.640 didn't because Lamar Jackson is just a complete freaking nature 0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:39.320 on the ground and. 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:43.520 Alma though, don't don't don't sell the wide receivers that 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:47.000 short here. I mean, I know Lamar played poorly in 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:49.440 the first quarter throwing that jump ball down down the field. 0:16:49.480 --> 0:16:52.240 That wasn't good, But he really played well after that. 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.800 I mean, he settled down, he really played well. 0:16:55.160 --> 0:16:58.120 He did, he did, he did, But it's just, you know, 0:16:58.160 --> 0:17:02.280 it's again I think that at the Bills offense and 0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:06.040 just how well coached they are, and how good Josh 0:17:06.080 --> 0:17:07.960 Allen is and how good Stefan Diggs is. I know 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:10.920 the corners are great for Baltimore, but you know, part 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:12.960 of me thinks I was a little surprised with the 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:15.520 with the Titans, for example, why they got away from 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.879 Brown right like they didn't. They went to Brown early, 0:17:19.119 --> 0:17:21.120 he had the touchdown and then you didn't really see 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.240 all that much from him. Again, I think, you know, 0:17:23.320 --> 0:17:26.239 Diggs is borderline uncoverable at this point. So I do 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:28.280 expect the Bills to put a point and if they 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:30.440 can get a lead, and if they're home, I think 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:32.080 it's going to be a little tougher for Jackson to 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:32.400 come back. 0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.400 But again, they came back now ten on the road 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:34.880 last week. 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:36.760 Yeah, very true, very true, But. 0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:40.360 That narrative's gone that they can't up back on the road. 0:17:40.720 --> 0:17:42.800 Uh, you're absolutely right, And that's why I said, I 0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:45.120 don't think like they can't. I think though, that they're 0:17:45.119 --> 0:17:47.520 playing a team that has a better defense now, because 0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:49.679 I know the Bills defense. You you're right, you you 0:17:49.720 --> 0:17:51.520