WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 NFL Week 17 Guessing Lines Show 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:02.480 Betting on sports can be hard, but hiring Morgan and 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:05.840 Morgan is easy. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:08.560 law firm. They have over one hundred offices nationwide and 0:00:08.600 --> 0:00:11.920 more than one thousand lawyers. Their fee is free unless 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:14.560 they win. For more information, go to four the People 0:00:14.600 --> 0:00:17.920 dot com slash Best Bets, or dial pound law pound 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:20.200 five two nine from your cell phone. That's f o 0:00:20.360 --> 0:00:23.400 R Thepeople dot com slash best Bets. This is a 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:24.320 paid advertisement. 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:30.400 Check it in, man and. 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:33.120 I'm just told the story. Now he's gone. Swando's idiots 0:00:33.120 --> 0:00:34.360 will believe in analytics. 0:00:34.440 --> 0:00:37.920 This is a numbers game with Gil Alexander gone Vison. 0:00:38.240 --> 0:00:40.880 Good Monday morning, There is a numbers game at Visa 0:00:40.920 --> 0:00:44.280 these sports betting network Visa dot Com game plus iHeartRadio 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.040 YouTube TV. How are you taking a simp? We appreciate it. 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:51.400 It's Gil Alexander alongside why at Tom check in for 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:55.400 the vacationing Kelly Bidlin on this Monday week seventeen guessing lines. 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:56.200 Good morning to you. 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:58.760 Sir, Good morning, wait Kelly's vacationing. He said he was 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:00.520 going to the bathroom and said hold to seat for 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:01.000 five minutes. 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:03.320 Where did he go like Turks Tahiti. Where did he go? 0:01:03.640 --> 0:01:05.240 I think just to Florida. And I think there was 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:07.240 no hurricanes to Florida. I don't think there was any 0:01:07.360 --> 0:01:09.720 hurricanes coming in. 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:11.919 Wyatt Tom Check. For those who don't know his street 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:14.760 cred is that he is the voice of UNLV women's 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:16.320 basketball and other sports. 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:18.600 I did and I prepared for this one today, Gil. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:21.399 I brought in our championship ring from last year. 0:01:21.680 --> 0:01:27.399 Wow, championship of what the Mountain West like championship ring? 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:29.959 I think really they really give out those rings for 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:30.920 the Mountains championship. 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:33.160 Yeah, everybody gets if you were in a conference championship, boy, 0:01:33.360 --> 0:01:37.040 you are. I mean, this thing is is legit. This 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:38.920 is probably the best best one I've gotten so far. 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:41.680 Congratulations on your ring, man, Thank you glad you would 0:01:41.680 --> 0:01:42.480 you wear that every day? 0:01:42.720 --> 0:01:44.240 I just this is the first time I've warned it. 0:01:44.280 --> 0:01:45.280 All right, I wore for you. 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:50.080 Thank you. I appreciate that. Championship of what oh conference? Gotcha? 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:51.080 Okay? 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:53.559 For those who have not been on this show before. 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.400 On Mondays, what we do is we guess the lines 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:58.639 of the upcoming weekends NFL games. We hope to extract 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:01.840 value in that process, and during that we also look 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.520 back at the week that was in the National Football League. 0:02:04.560 --> 0:02:07.680 We always start though, with guessing lines before we get 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:10.320 to the guess of the lines itself. With a Circus 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:14.960 Survivor update, there were fifty headed into this weekend. There 0:02:15.000 --> 0:02:18.920 are now forty five. Four get bounced with the Arizona Cardinals, 0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:22.520 one with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last night. There are 0:02:22.600 --> 0:02:25.359 twenty one still to play, though twenty one are on 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.480 the Green Bay Packers tonight against the New Orleans Saints. 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:30.760 Of course, the Packers two touchdown favorites in that game. 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:34.120 What could possibly go wrong? But if it is in 0:02:34.200 --> 0:02:37.120 fact forty five that advance, If in fact it is 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:40.400 forty five that advance to the Christmas quote unquote week, 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:43.320 the two games on Thursday, the one game on Friday 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:46.079 acting as its own week at Circus Survivor, the intrinsic 0:02:46.200 --> 0:02:48.920 value of each heading into that Christmas week would be 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:54.160 three hundred and seventeen thousand, twenty two dollars and twenty 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:57.800 two cents. Don't forget the cents, three hundred and seventeen 0:02:58.160 --> 0:03:00.200 twenty two dollars twenty two cents. We will get get 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:04.799 into those Christmas Christmas doubleheader, and of course the game 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:08.000 on Thursday night as well. What to do these folks do? 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.120 By the way, can we show that the tweet right 0:03:10.120 --> 0:03:12.640 now before we do that? This is from Tony Farmer, 0:03:13.919 --> 0:03:16.200 who does this courtesy of Survivor Outlics. Survivor Autless is 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:18.400 the one keeping all the stats on Circus Survivor. Tony 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.120 Farmer at Tony's Market Tips is kind enough to pass 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:23.840 them along to me. So on the left you might 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:25.360 not be able to see this on the screen because 0:03:25.360 --> 0:03:27.840 it might be too small when we get to it. 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.680 But on the left would be the availability of the 0:03:30.800 --> 0:03:35.320 six teams playing on Thursday and Friday, the Bears of 0:03:35.400 --> 0:03:38.680 the forty five remaining again, assuming the Packers get through tonight, 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:40.760 of the forty five remaining entries, and by the way, 0:03:40.760 --> 0:03:43.080 it's forty five human beings now there are no more 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:47.320 players with multiple entries. Twenty nine have the Bears available, 0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:49.960 twenty three have the Steelers available, twenty one have the 0:03:50.000 --> 0:03:55.560 Seahawks available, Ravens eleven, Chiefs only available to four, Houston 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:58.040 only available to three. The thing about this is that 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:00.640 if my guests are anywhere close, these are all going 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:03.240 to be tightly lined here on the right. What he 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:06.640 is showing in the yellow is if you were basing 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.000 it on the point spread, and I can see my 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:11.640 point spread is going to be tucking neatly around some 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:13.960 of these, although some of them seem a little off. 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:16.839 But I'll give you my actual guesses Seattle would be 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:22.000 the quote unquote optimal pick based on point spreads and availability. 0:04:22.360 --> 0:04:25.200 If you are playing it that way. That last phrase 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:27.600 is probably the key if you are playing it that 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:31.480 way without any other kind of game theory. My suggestion 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:34.080 in that sentence is perhaps you shouldn't play it that way, 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:36.560 But what do I know? I always bounced long ago. 0:04:36.680 --> 0:04:39.920 Forty five entries remain, and good luck to all that 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:42.120 are in obviously twenty one more on the Packers tonight, 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:44.760 which brings us to guessing lines Week seventeen in the 0:04:44.880 --> 0:04:56.400 National Football League. N Barrio Quick, you're bringing ball? Oh 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.360 you know, all right, Wyatt, you're playing the role of 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:00.480 Kelly Bidley today. 0:05:00.800 --> 0:05:02.359 All right, I'll make sure I won't do what Kelly 0:05:02.360 --> 0:05:05.080 did on the last game last week, which was hilarious. 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:08.800 He goes, he goes thirteen. I was like guess thirteen. 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:13.360 So this week in the NFL is. You mentioned it's 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:16.440 going to be Christmas Day, so the week starts on Wednesdays. 0:05:16.440 --> 0:05:18.320 We have to bump up the megapot too, Tomorrow. 0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:19.320 Megapot is tomorrow. 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:22.599 So first game on Wednesday, one pm Eastern time, the 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:23.960 Chiefs taken on the Steelers. 0:05:24.040 --> 0:05:26.240 Chiefs at Steelers. So we've known obviously for those who 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:28.560 have been in Survivor or locked in Survivor and anyway, 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:31.080 you've known these three games or I haven't locked into 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:34.840 your brain anyway for the entire season. Chiefs at Steelers. 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:38.960 The fourteen and one Kansas City Chiefs against the ten 0:05:39.000 --> 0:05:41.920 and five Steelers. Chiefs coming up coming off the win 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.440 over the Texans on Saturday. Basically, what we have on 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:47.800 Christmas is an opponent swap from what we had this 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:52.039 past week on Saturday. So Kansas City beach Houston. They 0:05:52.120 --> 0:05:55.360 do so on the strength of well, it started out 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.520 with a Houston pick third and twelve with their own 0:05:57.560 --> 0:05:59.640 forty three Stroud picked by Jayden Hicks. That led to 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:02.520 a six six yard Kansas City drive mahomes in from 0:06:02.560 --> 0:06:05.680 fifteen seven to nothing Chiefs. But the Texans did take 0:06:05.680 --> 0:06:08.279 the lead at seven to three. They ran a thirteen 0:06:08.360 --> 0:06:10.760 they ran themselves a thirteen play eighty two yard drive 0:06:10.920 --> 0:06:13.000 Stroud and Nico Collins the big chunk for thirty to 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:15.520 Schultz from ten out. It was ten to seven Houston 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:17.479 with ten oh nine left in the second quarter, but 0:06:17.520 --> 0:06:19.520 that was the last lead. They would have Kansas City 0:06:19.520 --> 0:06:21.960 eighty two yard driver right after that, because God forbid, 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:24.440 they don't have a lead for a long time. Hunt 0:06:24.480 --> 0:06:27.240 in from three fourteen to ten Kansas City. Stroud would 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:29.240 get picked by Trent McDuffie. That would lead to a 0:06:29.240 --> 0:06:32.880 butckerfield goal seventeen to ten Chiefs at the half. Third 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:36.520 quarter Houston four plays fifty yards pardon me they did. 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:39.200 They were about to tie the game Stroud to Dell 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:44.120 for three, but two things happen here. Fair Baron misses 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:46.120 the extra point, so the Chiefs still lead at seventeen 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:49.480 to sixteen, and more significantly, Tank Dell with a significant 0:06:49.560 --> 0:06:53.800 knee injury already a kneecap displacement. That's the first thing 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:56.039 that we know for sure, But the extent of that 0:06:56.120 --> 0:06:59.800 injury still not known, and it looks to what everybody's 0:06:59.800 --> 0:07:01.520 saying is that it is a bad injury and that 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.520 will be probably the season for Tank Dell, So you 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:06.360 don't have Dell, you don't have Diggs if you're Houston. 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:09.880 Moving forward into the postseason seventeen to sixteen, though Kansas 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.160 City would extended ten plays eighty yards Mahomes to Worthy 0:07:12.160 --> 0:07:14.800 from a twenty four to sixteen, they would get to 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.480 twenty four to nineteen, then to twenty seven to nineteen 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:20.760 in favor of the Chiefs, and Houston would then with 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:23.880 five eighteen left in the game, down one possession, three 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:26.520 and out, Kansas City got the ball. After that, they 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:31.600 would never relinquish a ballgame. Chiefs fourteen and one. But apparently, 0:07:31.680 --> 0:07:33.640 as long as Mahomes is playing, we can't give Andy 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:35.320 Reid a Coach of the Year because they'll never get 0:07:35.360 --> 0:07:37.560 credit for it. Even if they go sixteen to one. 0:07:37.600 --> 0:07:39.960 The Chief's magic number, if we were toe to the 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:43.360 baseball way of doing things, is one a Chiefs, one 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:47.160 Chiefs win, one Bill's loss, and the Chiefs will will 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:49.600 have the number one seed throughout the course of the 0:07:49.640 --> 0:07:53.160 AFC playoffs. So once again, all the power rankings, Schmaer 0:07:53.200 --> 0:07:56.200 schmankings that we've had all year long, it looks like 0:07:56.960 --> 0:08:01.840 that it will go through Arrowhead. Yet Againsburg Pittsburgh loses 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:05.000 to Baltimore in a game. Quite frankly, that was the 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:07.080 key play of the game was in the first half, 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:10.320 I think seven to seven game, Pittsburgh is matriculating second 0:08:10.360 --> 0:08:13.840 and six of the Baltimore twenty three. Russell Wilson with 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:16.760 a great run inside the five. He's hit by our 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:20.200 Darius Washington, fumbles recovered by Kyle van Noy, and Baltimore 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:22.040 then goes on an eight play ninety six yard drive 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:25.400 Lamar to Bateman from fourteen out. Halfway through the second quarter. 0:08:25.440 --> 0:08:28.000 It'd be seventeen to ten Baltimore at the half. Pittsburgh 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.600 would tie it up for second drive of the third quarter, 0:08:31.680 --> 0:08:33.800 eight plays eighty eight yards Wilson and Calvin Austin for 0:08:33.800 --> 0:08:36.400 forty four to start to Grederyl Patterson from twelve out 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:40.280 at seventeen seventeen with five fourteen left in the third quarter, 0:08:41.080 --> 0:08:43.440 and then it was all Baltimore. Baltimore six plays sixty 0:08:43.520 --> 0:08:45.840 yards all on Lamar's feet and arms Lamarta Andrews from 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:48.800 seven out twenty four to seventeen. Pittsburgh would then turn 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:50.720 it over on downs. A'd attempt a fourth and seven 0:08:50.760 --> 0:08:54.280 at the Baltimore forty six incomplete intendant for Austin Baltimore 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.040 first and goal with the ten lamoar picked by Fitzpatrick though, 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:00.360 and then the play of the second half Pittsburg xecud 0:09:00.360 --> 0:09:02.080 to seven at their own thirty six Wilson picked by 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:06.480 Marlin Humphrey to that house pick six thirty one seventeen 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:09.560 Baltimore with thirteen oh six left in the fourth quarter. 0:09:09.559 --> 0:09:11.360 And then I just want to bring this point up here. 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:15.680 Pittsburgh is down fourteen in the fourth quarter. Does this 0:09:15.720 --> 0:09:18.160 sound familiar to you from last week against the Eagles? 0:09:18.480 --> 0:09:20.360 They were down fourteen in that game in the fourth 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:23.200 quarter with about ten plus minutes left, and Mike Tomalin 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:26.880 decided to punt here down fourteen. He does the same 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:28.880 thing with nine to twenty six left, fourth and twelve 0:09:28.920 --> 0:09:32.800 at midfield, down fourteen, with nine to twenty six left, 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:36.800 Mike Tomlin punts. I'm sorry, but you cannot be considered 0:09:36.840 --> 0:09:39.520 for coach of the year when you do this. I 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:42.360 do not get this, man. Baltimore would have a field 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:45.040 GOALLL thirty four to seventeen. Ravens win it going away, 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:48.920 as Pittsburgh would then punt in the closing closing minutes 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:51.120 because it didn't matter at that point. So Kansas City 0:09:51.160 --> 0:09:53.600 has at Pittsburgh to start at Christmas Day. I got 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.160 Kansas City minus three and a half on the road 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:57.000 here at Pittsburgh. 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:59.240 Are you pretty close? We've got Kansas City minus two 0:09:59.280 --> 0:09:59.720 and a half. 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:01.559 Oh well, that's through the three though. That is a 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:05.200 that's interesting that it's less than a field goal. Less 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:07.319 than a field goal at Pittsburgh. A little surprised by that. 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:09.120 I just want to say, since we're talking a little 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:10.760 wards here, we'll get to the other games here after 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:14.720 the break. But Lamar Jackson three more touchdown passes he 0:10:14.720 --> 0:10:17.840 does throw the pick to Fitzpatrick. He now has If 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:19.160 you look at the awards in the NFL, I think 0:10:19.200 --> 0:10:20.959 we'll get to it. Jayden Daniels probably at this point, 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:23.160 and the only question is whether he's a unanimous Rookie 0:10:23.200 --> 0:10:24.840 of the Year or not. Offensive Rookie of the Year. 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:27.920 Coach of the Year Kevin O'Connell I think is the 0:10:28.360 --> 0:10:33.040 correct favorite now. When it comes to comeback Player of 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:34.720 the Year, I think we have that slotted for Joe 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:37.480 Burrow going away. They're not good enough, the Bengals aren't 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:39.280 for him to be the MVP. So He's the comeback 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:42.679 player of the year Saquon who's flirting with Eric Dickerson's 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:48.160 season rushing yards record, albeit one extra game than Dickerson had. 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:50.120 He's probably your offensive player of the Year. But when 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:52.760 it comes to MVP, I keep saying this, and I 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:55.600 a full disclosure. I'm saying it through the fact that 0:10:55.640 --> 0:10:58.840 I have a Lamar Jackson ticket at plus seven fifty. 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:00.920 Thankfully I have Daniels seven to one for Rookie the 0:11:00.960 --> 0:11:03.040 Year too, but at plus seven fifty, I have Lamar Jackson. 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:06.560 This went from minus nine hundred on Josh Allen this 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:09.520 past week to minus five fifty on Josh Allen. Lamar 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:11.439 is now at four to one. He went from plus 0:11:11.440 --> 0:11:14.080 five fifty to four to one after this weekend's games. 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:16.720 Lamar Jackson, I just want to say this again. He 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:21.280 has thirty seven touchdown passes and four picks. Nobody has 0:11:21.320 --> 0:11:24.280 ever thrown in the history of the NFL forty or 0:11:24.320 --> 0:11:27.120 more touchdown passes with as few as four picks, so 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.959 he's chasing that. He has the fourth highest passer rating 0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:33.360 the old school passer rating of one fifty eight point three, 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:37.400 the fourth highest. Currently two games left to play in 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:41.920 the history of the NFL. He has nearly eight hundred 0:11:42.000 --> 0:11:44.720 rushing yards as well, He's the twenty fifth leading rusher 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:46.200 in the NFL if you just want to put it 0:11:46.240 --> 0:11:49.360 in that terminology as well. And Josh Allen's performance this 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:53.160 past weekend was pedestrian, very many pedestrian didn't do anything 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:57.200 how And I'm the first one to concede if you 0:11:57.320 --> 0:12:01.000 take the words most valuable player literally, Josh Allen is 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:02.520 probably that because if you remove them with the Bills, 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:05.160 I don't know if they win three games. But those 0:12:05.240 --> 0:12:08.080 stats from Lamar Jackson were just gonna look the other way. 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.480 I don't think so. And based on our conversations with 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:13.880 Aaron Shotts and Mike Sando to voters, I think people 0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:18.040 ought to consider what could happen here coming back more 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.800 guessing line, it's numbers game Visa, These sports betting network. 0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:31.120 Numbers game on Visa. These sports betting network. 0:12:30.840 --> 0:12:33.360 Want to become a sharper better this holiday season, Vison 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:35.600 has the ultimate gift for you or the sport's better 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.040 in your life. If not, you right down, take advantage 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:39.920 of our holiday special. Get Visa Pro access to everything 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.120 we offer through May First for just seventy nine dollars. 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:44.240 Sign them now, get instant access to our daily best 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:47.800 bets to help you cashboard tickets, exclusive betting splits from DraftKings, 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:50.200 and circa twenty four to seven video access. Those all 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.079 are betting guys and expert picks for the college football playoffs, 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:55.160 Super Bowl, March Madness. Everything you need to win big 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.000 this season, make this holiday season unforgettable. With the gift 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.679 of smarter betting. Head to Visa dot com. Subscribe now 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:04.680 and unwrap your winning edge today Skill Alexander why at 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:08.880 Tom check in for Kelly Biddlin today on a guessing line' 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.280 Week seventeen. So I kind of like Kansas City. If 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:14.320 it's less than three, I may bite on that. In 0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:16.640 what has been a slim pickens the last few weeks 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:19.600 in the NFL, that might be the only, uh, that 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:21.840 might be one of the few edges I need to 0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:22.840 trigger a bet here. 0:13:22.880 --> 0:13:24.880 And I think just the way Pittsburgh has played the 0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:26.920 last couple of weeks, it's just been kind of very 0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:29.960 you know, getting beat by double digits, really really dominating 0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:34.240 that Eagles game, and I mean it is Russ starting 0:13:34.240 --> 0:13:35.880 to kind of take a step back. 0:13:36.160 --> 0:13:37.760 I don't know if he's taking a step back. I mean, 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.440 I think he's been as good as as one could 0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.880 hope he could hear that he is, especially after barn 0:13:42.960 --> 0:13:45.120 me what we saw in Denver. But I will say, 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:48.079 you know, Pittsburgh obviously right now, they have the tiebreaker 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.559 over the Ravens right now if it ended tide. They're teetering, though, 0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:56.120 because the Ravens knocking at the door obviously built teams 0:13:56.120 --> 0:13:57.720 with a ten and five record of the AFC North, 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.160 the Ravens might have the edge given Pittsburgh's schedule, we'll 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:03.760 hear the last couple of weeks. Kansas City would love 0:14:04.559 --> 0:14:07.319 to get the number one seed out of the way. 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:10.319 Two days from now. They can if they can win 0:14:10.360 --> 0:14:13.000 this game against Pittsburgh. You're fifteen and one. You do 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:16.160 not have to play Week eighteen. You don't have to 0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:17.680 play any of your players if you don't want to. 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.520 Mahomes is that's healthy ankle, by the way, And you 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:23.000 play in early in week sixteen, So think about that. 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:24.920 I mean, you would have a two and a half week, 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:26.800 is that correct, Yes, a two and a half week, 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.000 two and a half weeks till you played another meaningful 0:14:29.000 --> 0:14:30.840 football game. A lot of people say, oh, but that's 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:34.120 a rust versus rest thing. The Chiefs don't qualify for 0:14:34.160 --> 0:14:35.640 that kind of They could take two months off, they 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:36.560 could do whatever they want. 0:14:36.880 --> 0:14:38.360 Yeah, I was gonna say, we got to give credit 0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:40.720 to the athletic training staff for the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:42.400 looks so good out there. I'm just running. 0:14:42.640 --> 0:14:46.040 I said this last week. His most underrated skill quote 0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:49.080 unquote is his healing power. It does not matter what 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:50.840 happens to him. He seems to be teflon. 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:52.680 If that happened to us, we'd be off for like 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:53.240 three months. 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:55.640 Oh bro, I've become my father with stuff like that. 0:14:55.680 --> 0:14:57.920 He still I remember when as a kid something would 0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.680 happen on a football field, it would take me thirty 0:14:59.680 --> 0:15:02.000 minutes to get up off the grove. I've become him now. 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:04.360 Joe Ryan is not happy with me. We get tweets 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:06.160 and beating of the book. He was tweeting me earlier. 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:09.440 He said he was presenting Caleb Williams stats. He goes, 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:11.040 I present you these stats so you can hold on 0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.200 your continued hating on Williams. He says the guy may 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.680 break the Bears all time yards passing for a season 0:15:16.680 --> 0:15:19.960 with his backup offensive coordinator, head coaching, he is very special. 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.720 He's not very happy with Merril Hodge's assessment of him, 0:15:22.720 --> 0:15:23.840 and he's not very happy with me. And I said, 0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:25.960 I don't hate Williams, says no, I said hating on Williams. 0:15:26.040 --> 0:15:27.720 I feel like you guys dump on him while the 0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:30.000 dude has been stellar in a dumpster fire of a situation. 0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.640 Point well taken. I do think the interesting question here, Joe, 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:38.080 is if you got to redraft this rookie class of quarterbacks, 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:43.160 now having fifteen games in hindsight, would you draft them 0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:46.920 the same way? Rich Eisen's show did this last week? 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:49.360 And you know, the conclusion they came to was that 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.280 the Bear given the same draft order, that the Bears 0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:55.560 would still draft Caleb one. And as a Washington fan, 0:15:55.600 --> 0:15:58.000 I was like, go, I'll take Jade to two again, 0:15:58.040 --> 0:16:01.000 thank you very much. But that was their conclusion was 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:04.080 the Bears would still take Caleb at one, and Washington 0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.960 then would just obviously take Jayden at two. I think 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:10.120 if you if you ranked them based on performance and 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:13.040 obviously given the I get what you're saying, Joe about 0:16:13.120 --> 0:16:18.080 Caleb's surrounding his supporting cast. If you will the offensive 0:16:18.080 --> 0:16:21.480 line being the biggest of those, the the not stellar 0:16:21.600 --> 0:16:25.280 offensive line. I still think based on performance, you'd go 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.720 in a very one one two, A two B two 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:30.520 C kind of way. Jaden one. 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:32.840 I would take Jaden one. 0:16:33.080 --> 0:16:35.160 I think you have to say Bo Nicks had the 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:36.840 second best season of anybody. 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:42.480 His growth from the first five weeks absolutely now has unbelievable. 0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:44.920 Now do you draft him second? If the task is 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:46.960 you are still starting a team from scratch, do you 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:49.440 still believe that that translates to him being the better 0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:52.960 quarterback than Caleb over time? That's a different story. But 0:16:53.000 --> 0:16:54.800 I think based on performance, Bo would have to be 0:16:54.800 --> 0:16:57.440 to Drake May would probably have to be three like they. 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.800 As Aaron Shott said as a Patriots fan, we got 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:04.280 the right guy, that's what he believes. And Caleb. It's 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.000 the only thing about Caleb braced on those other guys 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.560 is he's just a little more of a wild card 0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:11.200 than the other three guys. 0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:15.080 I think Caleb's biggest thing that's holding him back. Obviously, 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:16.879 you got to have a good offensive line if you're 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:19.640 running around like crazy. But when he does get time, 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:21.840 Caleb holds onto the ball way too long, too way 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:24.800 too long, and I was watching the Seahawks game yesterday, 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:27.159 Gino Smith was taking a lot of unnecessary hits. I 0:17:27.160 --> 0:17:29.840 think that's another thing with Caleb, like protect your body, 0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:31.960 if you don't have anybody open, throw it away, don't 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:32.720 take those big hits. 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:34.520 Yeah. But the point also made here was like if 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:38.320 the situation was reversed, Joe was saying that the outcomes 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:40.919 would be reversed also, and I disagree with that wholeheartedly. 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.320 Jayden Daniels is Jayden Nails, doesn't hold onto the ball 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:47.720 like Caleb does. He is calm under any situation. Caleb 0:17:47.800 --> 0:17:49.800 was throwing a tantrum when they kicked that ridiculous field 0:17:49.800 --> 0:17:51.480 goal later in the game yester day. I just think 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.639 they're different guys also, and I don't think that the 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.520 results would be the same. There's no way we can 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:58.840 prove that, but I think it's an interesting thought exercise. 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:00.000 What is next? Aer On Criss? 0:18:00.560 --> 0:18:04.480 On Christmas Day? We have at four thirty pm Eastern time, 0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:06.080 the Ravens taken on the Texans. 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:08.639 All right, as we said, just an opponent swap is 0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:11.080 what this is from this past Saturday. So now Baltimore 0:18:11.119 --> 0:18:13.919 is at Houston. Lamar fifteen of twenty three for two 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:16.440 oh seven, three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked once 0:18:16.480 --> 0:18:18.240 to that game. Derrek Henry twenty four for one to 0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:21.760 sixty Twesday five for one hundred. In Baltimore's win over Pittsburgh, 0:18:21.760 --> 0:18:24.760 we're again Mike Tomlin literally punting on the game for 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:27.200 the second straight week. And then Houston now without Tank 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:30.320 Dell again with a displaced knee cap on that touchdown 0:18:30.400 --> 0:18:32.919 for Houston that brought the game to seventeen sixteen. I'll 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:34.199 say Baltimore minus three and a. 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:38.040 Half pretty close. You've got Baltimore minus four on DraftKings. 0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:41.040 That's probably better. Next, this is all we go to. 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:42.720 Now we go to Friday. This is where we get hit 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.480