WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - September 12th, 2025

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily reporting from the magazine

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<v Speaker 2>that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies,

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<v Speaker 2>and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance

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<v Speaker 2>and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 2>Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Hi, everyone, welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week Weekend podcast.

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<v Speaker 3>Our backdrop this week highlights from the annual future Proof

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<v Speaker 3>Festival in Huntington Beach, California, a gathering of the wealth

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<v Speaker 3>management ecosystem, some three thousand financial advisors, wealth management execs,

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<v Speaker 3>and limited partners more than five thousand attendees in all,

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<v Speaker 3>representing an anticipated twenty trillion dollars in assets under management,

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of money.

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<v Speaker 4>All of this happening against a background of records on

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<v Speaker 4>Wall Street, tighter, Tariff's geopolitical tensions, global governments undergoing leadership changes,

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<v Speaker 4>and more. Of course, investors also getting ready for this

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<v Speaker 4>week's meeting of the Federal Reserve and expected rate cut.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, so the next two hours are going to

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<v Speaker 3>include our conversations from future Proof, including one with Sarah Levy,

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<v Speaker 3>CEO of Betterment Advisor Solutions, on serving the advisor community

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<v Speaker 3>and kind of tim shedding to some extent just the

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<v Speaker 3>roboadvisor image.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I was surprised to hear her say how much

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<v Speaker 4>she's trying to move away from that, because I still

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<v Speaker 4>think of Betterment as like a competitor to Wealth Run

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<v Speaker 4>or Schwab Intelligent Portfolio. Those robo advisors that are like

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<v Speaker 4>set it and forget it. They're trying to move away

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<v Speaker 4>from that.

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<v Speaker 3>They definitely are. We also heard from JP Morgan's Pria

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<v Speaker 3>Misra on could it be one and done for the FED?

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<v Speaker 4>What was the term she used for that cut? The

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<v Speaker 4>cautionary cut.

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<v Speaker 3>Something like that, right, an insurance cut.

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<v Speaker 4>In assurance cut, That's what it is.

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<v Speaker 3>Just do it just in case things are coming undone.

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<v Speaker 4>We'll also hear from Masters in Business host Barry Ridholtz

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<v Speaker 4>about FED independence and black rocks, Jamie Majerra on bringing

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<v Speaker 4>private credit to the retirement class, also a psychologist take

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<v Speaker 4>on investing some numbers too to back it all up.

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<v Speaker 3>Get to put emotions to the side. First up, we

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<v Speaker 3>start with the event itself and what future Proof is

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<v Speaker 3>all about. Matt Middleton is the creator and CEO.

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<v Speaker 5>We all grow up my personal experience into the into

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<v Speaker 5>the industry of its conformity. Right, it's you know, talk

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<v Speaker 5>this way, walk this way, dressed like this, act that way.

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<v Speaker 5>If you want to get in that room, this is

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<v Speaker 5>what you have to be. And really, what we're representing

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<v Speaker 5>here is a shift, right, It's a it's a mindset shift,

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<v Speaker 5>it's a generational shift. And what we're seeing is that

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<v Speaker 5>people with real buying power, real influence and assets want

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<v Speaker 5>to actually break up of the status quo. And this

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<v Speaker 5>is a represent a representation of that new industry which

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<v Speaker 5>is not just casual attire.

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<v Speaker 6>Obviously, we're here on and we feel a.

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<v Speaker 4>Little dressed up here, I said earlier. The only one

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<v Speaker 4>you're wearing a suit.

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<v Speaker 6>I know this first timer. That's why.

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<v Speaker 4>That's if you can tell who the first tree.

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<v Speaker 5>But but it is, it's it's mostly about the experience

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<v Speaker 5>here and people connecting. And the industry is better when

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<v Speaker 5>we all connect versus siloing out. And so our hope

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<v Speaker 5>is here is not just to define it as wealth management,

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<v Speaker 5>not to define it as ask management or fintech. It's

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<v Speaker 5>to bring everyone together from all job levels across all

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<v Speaker 5>functions and give them the tools that they have to

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<v Speaker 5>meet a network to see how to build a better business.

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<v Speaker 4>One thing that I noticed about this conference that I've

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<v Speaker 4>never seen before is for a small fee, you can

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<v Speaker 4>bring your partner, meaning your husband, your wife, your boyfriend,

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<v Speaker 4>your girlfriend, your significant other. I've never seen that before.

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<v Speaker 4>What's the thinking behind us?

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<v Speaker 5>Well, personally, obviously I'm an entrepreneur, and you know, I

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<v Speaker 5>always laugh when I have these conversations.

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<v Speaker 6>Everyone's like, what's the vision? What do you do this?

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<v Speaker 6>You know, how do you manage it? You're acquired this business,

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<v Speaker 6>and it's like.

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<v Speaker 5>My co founder is my wife, right at the end

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<v Speaker 5>of the day, it's it's who you have at home,

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<v Speaker 5>to people that are on that journey with you that

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<v Speaker 5>kind of wear all of that. And so part of

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<v Speaker 5>that view is one we're in this beautiful setting, right,

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<v Speaker 5>it should feel like a destination and a vacation to

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<v Speaker 5>some sorts, but also it's a lot until you get

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<v Speaker 5>your spouses to experience what the industry is like, meet

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<v Speaker 5>your clients, meet your partners, and again, I think if

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<v Speaker 5>they are more exposed to it, they'll understand it more.

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<v Speaker 5>And that's a representation of what we're trying to do here,

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<v Speaker 5>which is, if we could get this event to a

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<v Speaker 5>large enough scale and get national attention with the help

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<v Speaker 5>of you all, well maybe some people on the you know,

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<v Speaker 5>the general public will start to look at it and say, oh,

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<v Speaker 5>what is this? Right, They'll scroll through Instagram and it's like, oh,

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<v Speaker 5>I see Coachila and my friends and this is very

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<v Speaker 5>it's a cultural movement. And then the next scroll they're

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<v Speaker 5>scrolling and they're seeing future.

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<v Speaker 7>People like, oh, this is great.

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<v Speaker 5>What is a wealth management conference? This is interesting? What

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<v Speaker 5>is wealth management? And we could expose them to more

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<v Speaker 5>of it? And so it's a little bit of one.

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<v Speaker 5>We want to make a family oriented and the other

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<v Speaker 5>side of it is we want to change the narrative

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<v Speaker 5>and the optics of our industry.

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<v Speaker 3>But do you also think about I thought I read

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<v Speaker 3>somewhere too that you want to kind of cap how

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<v Speaker 3>many people are here, because we've certainly been to lots

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<v Speaker 3>of conferences where it just goes like thousands and thousands

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<v Speaker 3>and thousands of people and tons and tons of booths

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<v Speaker 3>and it's almost overwhelming, and I'm not quite sure what

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<v Speaker 3>the takeaway is.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, So it's two parts, right, One is, yes, that

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<v Speaker 6>is true.

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<v Speaker 5>When you get a large crowd, the word that always

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<v Speaker 5>comes out as boondoggle, right, and you have no people

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<v Speaker 5>get lost, you're drinking from a viro hose. We use

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<v Speaker 5>proprietary event technology so break through what you see this

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<v Speaker 5>big ten here to allow people to connect in meaningful ways.

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<v Speaker 5>And the goal there is you go into the event,

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<v Speaker 5>So three weeks before the event, you basically are making

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<v Speaker 5>connections and guaranteeing certain meetings. So you have one to

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<v Speaker 5>one meetings, you have roundtable discussions, you have all these

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<v Speaker 5>different booth activities. These are all pre scheduled, so it's

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<v Speaker 5>not serendipity happen. So you could create a large scale experience,

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<v Speaker 5>multi thousand person experience, and create a unique agenda and

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<v Speaker 5>a unique networking plan for one specific role or person.

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<v Speaker 5>And that's the benefit of what we do. The second

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<v Speaker 5>side to that is we do want to cap this

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<v Speaker 5>because there's a magic size here, and we believe that's

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<v Speaker 5>around five thousand people. One. We're in four hotels in

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<v Speaker 5>Huntington Beach, we have ten hotels in Newport Beach. People

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<v Speaker 5>staying in Irvine, there's people staying forty minutes away. So

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<v Speaker 5>at some point even if we can't control it. Their

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<v Speaker 5>experience is going to be different than everyone here, and

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<v Speaker 5>so we decided that there's a limit to what we

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<v Speaker 5>want to do here.

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<v Speaker 4>I did see this idea of you know, growth and

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<v Speaker 4>bringing people. I did notice that pretty much everything is branded,

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<v Speaker 4>they're sponsors everywhere. From the perspective ABYSS as a business

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<v Speaker 4>in terms of revenue, is your biggest revenue source still

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<v Speaker 4>tickets or is it sponsorships?

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<v Speaker 6>Now it's it's always sponsorships.

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<v Speaker 4>So how much bigger is that than tickets?

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<v Speaker 6>It's probably seventy thirty ratio.

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<v Speaker 5>We also monetize all these different connection points, so again

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<v Speaker 5>using the technology, right, a lot of these meetings that

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<v Speaker 5>you see, there's somewhere peer to peer.

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<v Speaker 6>Others are you know.

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<v Speaker 5>Buyer seller, and so there's different ways to monetize events

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<v Speaker 5>that we've kind of broken one. It's a different format

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<v Speaker 5>right too. It's the technology allows us to do things

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<v Speaker 5>differently than most other events. But yeah, the idea here

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<v Speaker 5>is like events should be about the community and shouldn't

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<v Speaker 5>just treat the attendees as a product, which is unfortunately

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<v Speaker 5>how it typically happens when you have these booths and

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<v Speaker 5>everyone's trying to pitch and Wheel and so you see

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<v Speaker 5>people that you see a lot of the big brands

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<v Speaker 5>that you see at other events, but they're showing up

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<v Speaker 5>differently here and it's meaningful. They get better ROI and

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<v Speaker 5>the attendees have.

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<v Speaker 4>Better experience our thanks to Matt Middleton, founder and CEO

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<v Speaker 4>of future Proof.

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<v Speaker 3>Also joining us at Futureproof in Huntington Beach this past

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<v Speaker 3>week Sarah kirshbaum Levy. She's the CEO of Betterment, formerly

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<v Speaker 3>chief operating officer at Nickelodeon.

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<v Speaker 4>We didn't talk SpongeBob, maybe we will next time, but

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<v Speaker 4>we did talk a lot about Betterment's robo advisor tool

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<v Speaker 4>and how they're trying to move away from that as

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<v Speaker 4>an image.

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<v Speaker 8>So we're now fifteen years old, we have a million

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<v Speaker 8>customers and we have sixty three billion in assets center management,

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<v Speaker 8>and the Advisor Solutions product is we are an all

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<v Speaker 8>in one custodian for the modern Ria.

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<v Speaker 9>So what does that mean.

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<v Speaker 8>It means we're custody, we're portfolio management, and we have

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<v Speaker 8>an integrated billing solution.

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<v Speaker 4>Do those things work in conflict with one another in

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<v Speaker 4>the sense of like, Okay, well you're offering this this

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<v Speaker 4>robo advisor service. People who use that wouldn't necessarily have advisors.

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<v Speaker 8>So I've tried to shed that those robo roots. I

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<v Speaker 8>think they actually are incredibly aligned. And when we first start,

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<v Speaker 8>well when the business first started, it predates me because

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<v Speaker 8>I've been here about five years, but fifteen years ago

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<v Speaker 8>I think there was a fear.

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<v Speaker 3>Of that from the advisor community.

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<v Speaker 8>But the reality is what we did as a business

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<v Speaker 8>is we use technology to lower the barrier to entry

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<v Speaker 8>for young investors. Right, so, clients that advisors wouldn't want

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<v Speaker 8>to spend time with because they didn't have enough assets

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<v Speaker 8>under management to really you know, be worth their time. Honestly,

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<v Speaker 8>the technology could do it.

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<v Speaker 9>And what we've done.

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<v Speaker 8>Is we've basically started folks on their investing journey in

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<v Speaker 8>you know, started folks with good habits, right diversification, low cost,

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<v Speaker 8>low taxes, like that's really what you want to do

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<v Speaker 8>early on, not day trading. And those folks grow into

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<v Speaker 8>really really great advised clients, and we have an ability to, basically,

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<v Speaker 8>as they grow with us, bring them on to the advisors.

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<v Speaker 3>How is technology and changing demographics really impacting you guys.

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<v Speaker 8>Well, technologies at the heart of what we do. I

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<v Speaker 8>think fundamentally, we are a technology solution. We're a fintech

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<v Speaker 8>company that is.

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<v Speaker 3>But changing technology and AI and all that, like, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>that's makes soot.

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<v Speaker 8>It's it's interesting because AI has come on the scene

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<v Speaker 8>faster than anything we've ever seen. We just released a

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<v Speaker 8>survey asking advisors how they're using a IAI Are they

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<v Speaker 8>worried about AI? And they're sort of a paradox in there,

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<v Speaker 8>which is yes and yes, which is they're all using it,

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<v Speaker 8>and they're also all terrified that their clients are going

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<v Speaker 8>to use it and that they're going to be replaced.

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<v Speaker 10>Are right?

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<v Speaker 9>I think they're right to some extent.

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<v Speaker 8>We saw actually an incredible shift in just one year.

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<v Speaker 8>The source of advice that that young clients are seeking

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<v Speaker 8>was via social media and is now AI within the

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<v Speaker 8>course of just a year, which amazing, And so I think, yes,

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<v Speaker 8>they're right to be, you know, to be worried. But

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<v Speaker 8>at the end of the day, an advisor relationship is

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<v Speaker 8>a human relationship and it's a relationship and that's the

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<v Speaker 8>important word. And I think technology can really supercharge that.

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<v Speaker 8>So the smart advisors are saying, how do I embrace

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<v Speaker 8>it and how do I have it make me better, stronger, faster,

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<v Speaker 8>one other.

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<v Speaker 4>Uh, there's the survey is huge in One of the

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<v Speaker 4>results that struck me was the optimism that the arias

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<v Speaker 4>right now are feeling about the economy. We've spoken about

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<v Speaker 4>this over the last two hours. Here. There seems to

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<v Speaker 4>be an opt optimism here. I don't know if it's

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<v Speaker 4>the sun shining and the waves crashing right there that's

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<v Speaker 4>leading to that enable the people playing pickleball and surfing

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<v Speaker 4>over there, but there's a lot that we talk about

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<v Speaker 4>each and every day that seems to be stressing people out.

0:10:22.880 --> 0:10:24.199
<v Speaker 4>Rias are pretty optimistic.

0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:26.360
<v Speaker 8>Well, I think a lot of it is time horizon.

0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:28.160
<v Speaker 8>I mean when we think about even when we look

0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.640
<v Speaker 8>at the different groups of rias, when you think about

0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:33.960
<v Speaker 8>the different generations, right, the younger generations have a really

0:10:33.960 --> 0:10:37.320
<v Speaker 8>long time horizon, and so they're thinking about retirement.

0:10:37.640 --> 0:10:37.720
<v Speaker 11>Right.

0:10:37.800 --> 0:10:39.520
<v Speaker 8>There's a lot of times to plan for your future.

0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.320
<v Speaker 8>So some of the volatility that we're experiencing now and

0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:43.880
<v Speaker 8>some of the you know what's going to happen in

0:10:43.920 --> 0:10:45.920
<v Speaker 8>the economy in the next twenty four months, these are

0:10:45.960 --> 0:10:49.000
<v Speaker 8>investing journeys and rias are thinking about a much longer

0:10:49.040 --> 0:10:52.000
<v Speaker 8>time horizon, and so I think they're clients who are

0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:54.960
<v Speaker 8>most worried are the ones who are in retirement, entering retirement.

0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:56.560
<v Speaker 8>You know what's going to happen to my nest egg.

0:10:56.880 --> 0:10:59.439
<v Speaker 8>But a lot of the clients we serve, we're more

0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:02.839
<v Speaker 8>a segmentation play for the big arias who put their

0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:05.520
<v Speaker 8>next generation clients with us, Ones who want a more

0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:09.520
<v Speaker 8>delightful user experience, ones who maybe don't want to talk

0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:11.520
<v Speaker 8>to the advisor quite as much, they'd like to do

0:11:11.559 --> 0:11:15.920
<v Speaker 8>a little more self service. That's really the customer we serve. Ultimately,

0:11:16.920 --> 0:11:18.160
<v Speaker 8>What in terms of types.

0:11:17.960 --> 0:11:20.200
<v Speaker 3>Of investment, Sarah, do you find that those on the

0:11:20.200 --> 0:11:22.440
<v Speaker 3>platform are increasingly want to know about. I feel like

0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:25.880
<v Speaker 3>for years all we talked about was crypto. I'm just

0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.640
<v Speaker 3>curious what it is that people are like, wait, I

0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.000
<v Speaker 3>want to be able to do this on your platform.

0:11:31.080 --> 0:11:34.960
<v Speaker 8>Well, so our platform started as really a great ETF

0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:37.640
<v Speaker 8>solution on the theory that you know, ETFs is where

0:11:37.679 --> 0:11:40.640
<v Speaker 8>the average investor should be, and we actually attracted rias

0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:44.280
<v Speaker 8>who were primarily building ETF portfolios and as an RIA,

0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:47.560
<v Speaker 8>you can build custom portfolios on our platform. There's also

0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:52.280
<v Speaker 8>model portfolios available. We read more recently introduced mutual funds

0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:56.640
<v Speaker 8>and then last up single stocks. We are actually complementing

0:11:56.679 --> 0:12:00.200
<v Speaker 8>that with some self directed and advisor directed investing, which

0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:03.080
<v Speaker 8>is coming imminently because I think the biggest change we've

0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:05.760
<v Speaker 8>seen is there used to be clients either who want

0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:07.880
<v Speaker 8>a self direct or who want a set it and

0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:10.360
<v Speaker 8>forget it managed portfolio, and now what we're seeing is

0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:12.679
<v Speaker 8>that there's much more of a blending, which is people

0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:14.679
<v Speaker 8>want a little bit of agency with some part of

0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:17.760
<v Speaker 8>their wealth, and then they want some of it in diversified,

0:12:17.920 --> 0:12:20.040
<v Speaker 8>long term, globally diversified position.

0:12:20.160 --> 0:12:21.520
<v Speaker 3>So wait, where does the crypto fit in?

0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:24.720
<v Speaker 8>Well, we you know, interestingly, in twenty twenty one, we

0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.960
<v Speaker 8>actually bought a small crypto company and we did diversified

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:31.000
<v Speaker 8>crypto portfolios and what we found is that the advisors

0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.120
<v Speaker 8>shied away from it on the on the advisor solution

0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:37.080
<v Speaker 8>side and on the retail side. Our audience wanted bitcoin

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.240
<v Speaker 8>and ethereum, but didn't want much else. A lot of

0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:41.120
<v Speaker 8>it was and maybe that speaks to who our customer

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:41.800
<v Speaker 8>segment is.

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:42.440
<v Speaker 3>More than anything.

0:12:42.520 --> 0:12:45.760
<v Speaker 8>We're not a gamified crowd right where we really do

0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.280
<v Speaker 8>attract the long term mindset investor.

0:12:48.520 --> 0:12:51.520
<v Speaker 4>That was Sarah kirschbaumd Levy, CEO of Betterman joining us

0:12:51.600 --> 0:12:53.079
<v Speaker 4>on site at future Proof.

0:12:53.320 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 3>Coming up, He's an Apple bull and now he's sharing

0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:59.600
<v Speaker 3>a company hoarding a sam Altman linked cryptocurrency.

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.800
<v Speaker 4>We're talking about Dan Ives. He's Next is our coverage

0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:06.119
<v Speaker 4>from future Proof twenty twenty five in Huntington Beach, California. Continues,

0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:07.559
<v Speaker 4>This is Bloomberg.

0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:16.600
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily Podcast. Catch us

0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:20.160
<v Speaker 2>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen

0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:23.760
<v Speaker 2>on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:25.720
<v Speaker 2>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:13:26.360 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 3>We continue with highlights from our coverage this past week

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.559
<v Speaker 3>in the future Proof Festival from Huntington Beach, California. And

0:13:31.600 --> 0:13:33.680
<v Speaker 3>I gotta say, I know we said it a lot

0:13:33.720 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 3>on air, but man, it was so nice doing a

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.240
<v Speaker 3>financial conference on the beach. We could see the ocean,

0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:42.600
<v Speaker 3>the wind blowing. It definitely had a different feel.

0:13:42.760 --> 0:13:44.679
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you and I go to a lot of conferences.

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.160
<v Speaker 4>Most of those, if not all, are actually indoors. I mean,

0:13:48.200 --> 0:13:50.840
<v Speaker 4>even something like the Milkin Institute Global Conference, which is

0:13:50.880 --> 0:13:54.400
<v Speaker 4>in Beverly Hills, another part of the country right there,

0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:57.800
<v Speaker 4>just north of Huntington Beach that actually has perfect weather

0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:01.560
<v Speaker 4>year round, so they could do it outside. But there's

0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.880
<v Speaker 4>something unique about having a festival that is literally on

0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 4>a parking lot next to the beach. You're in the

0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:08.560
<v Speaker 4>sand for some of it.

0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:10.640
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, no, you absolutely are. It would be really funny

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:12.440
<v Speaker 3>because I was walking and I was like emptying my shoes.

0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:13.960
<v Speaker 3>Once I got home, I'm like, oh, a little sand

0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.000
<v Speaker 3>in there. It's a casual feel, and there's people running

0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 3>into each other. They're dressed casually. I mean you even

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:21.640
<v Speaker 3>wore shorts and flip flops.

0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:21.960
<v Speaker 4>The second day.

0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 3>The second day, the second day on air, I mean,

0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:27.800
<v Speaker 3>but it's just there is and it's about setting up

0:14:27.840 --> 0:14:33.880
<v Speaker 3>meetings and conversations. I mean, there were rias right that said, listen,

0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:36.920
<v Speaker 3>this is the only investment financial conference I go to.

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 3>This is the one that really makes sense for me.

0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:40.800
<v Speaker 3>And I thought that was really kind of telling, considering

0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:42.480
<v Speaker 3>there are many many out there.

0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.680
<v Speaker 4>The tone also very bullish from really pretty much everyone

0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:48.520
<v Speaker 4>we spoke to, and I'm wondering to what extent that's

0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:52.600
<v Speaker 4>because financial advisors are inherently optimistic. They kind of need

0:14:52.640 --> 0:14:55.200
<v Speaker 4>to be that way for clients who call when they're

0:14:55.200 --> 0:14:58.680
<v Speaker 4>nervous and sort of calm them, or because the festival

0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:01.720
<v Speaker 4>vibe was like that, or if they're actually feeling like, Okay,

0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:04.520
<v Speaker 4>we're not so concerned about the impact of tariffs. We

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:06.560
<v Speaker 4>think the FED is moving in the right direction, and

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:08.560
<v Speaker 4>even though we're starting to see some cracks in the

0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.320
<v Speaker 4>labor market and the economy, things are pretty good still.

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.240
<v Speaker 3>I think it's interesting that you said that, because I

0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 3>did still hear the word uncertainty used an awful lot,

0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:19.240
<v Speaker 3>and I was kind of maybe surprised by that because

0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 3>there are some things that we know. We've had a

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:25.840
<v Speaker 3>massive spending and tax package passed by the President, We've

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:28.920
<v Speaker 3>had some other moves. We've seen tariffs already set for

0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:31.240
<v Speaker 3>a lot of countries, so we know we're in a

0:15:31.320 --> 0:15:33.840
<v Speaker 3>higher tariff environment. So I think it's kind of interesting

0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:35.400
<v Speaker 3>that there are some things that have been set and

0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:39.960
<v Speaker 3>yet many still said there's uncertainty out there about kind

0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:41.560
<v Speaker 3>of what comes next, and not.

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:44.920
<v Speaker 4>The uncertainty around what SPF to use thirty or or twenty.

0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 3>When you're out there on that, I can't believe.

0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:47.040
<v Speaker 6>You went there.

0:15:48.200 --> 0:15:51.360
<v Speaker 3>No, it's a really interesting environment. You're right, it's not

0:15:51.400 --> 0:15:52.960
<v Speaker 3>like a lot of people were using the R word.

0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:55.640
<v Speaker 3>They weren't talking about recession. But we are going in

0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:58.160
<v Speaker 3>this interesting period with a FED meeting this coming week

0:15:58.200 --> 0:16:00.360
<v Speaker 3>and a FED decision, and then we're in kind of

0:16:00.400 --> 0:16:02.560
<v Speaker 3>a period where we won't hear from companies in terms

0:16:02.600 --> 0:16:04.720
<v Speaker 3>of earnings, and that won't start till January.

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 4>Well, one company that we did hear from this past

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:09.480
<v Speaker 4>week is Apple, the company holding its biggest product launch

0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:12.360
<v Speaker 4>event of the year this past week, ushering in four

0:16:12.400 --> 0:16:16.640
<v Speaker 4>new iPhone models, including its thinnest ever iPhone, an end

0:16:16.640 --> 0:16:19.720
<v Speaker 4>to end refresh of its smart watch lineup, and updated

0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 4>air pods. Someone who watches the company very closely, as

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:25.600
<v Speaker 4>web Bush's global head of Technology Research, Dan ives Dan

0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 4>joined us from future Proof to talk Apple AI plus

0:16:28.360 --> 0:16:32.120
<v Speaker 4>becoming chair of a crypto treasury company that had a

0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:34.960
<v Speaker 4>really big day this past week. You and the team

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:37.080
<v Speaker 4>at webush has to make their three hundred and fifteen

0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.560
<v Speaker 4>million folks out there who are ready to upgrade their iPhones.

0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.000
<v Speaker 4>Is the seventeam gonna get them to upgrade? Look, I

0:16:43.000 --> 0:16:44.760
<v Speaker 4>think it's going to move the needle. I mean, I

0:16:44.800 --> 0:16:48.200
<v Speaker 4>think especially in China, there's definitely what I to pin

0:16:48.320 --> 0:16:51.840
<v Speaker 4>up demand. I think street numbers continue to be pretty

0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:55.360
<v Speaker 4>conservative to maybe low and that's a great setup. Look,

0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:57.240
<v Speaker 4>the reality is that this is not going to be

0:16:57.320 --> 0:17:00.680
<v Speaker 4>a super cycle. There's nothing here there makes you think

0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.560
<v Speaker 4>that this is gonna be the game change that everyone's

0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:06.800
<v Speaker 4>been waiting for. But I do believe given the install base,

0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:10.320
<v Speaker 4>given some of the tweaks here, and ultimately on the

0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.200
<v Speaker 4>on sort of the second half of this upgrade cycle,

0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:16.520
<v Speaker 4>you will have an AI driven ecosystem.

0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 12>I believe it will be Google Gemini. This could be

0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:23.159
<v Speaker 12>a sneaky upgrade cycle that I think surprises investors on

0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.760
<v Speaker 12>the upside. What do you mean because right now, expectations

0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:30.480
<v Speaker 12>New York City cab drivers barrish on Apple, and I

0:17:30.520 --> 0:17:32.880
<v Speaker 12>think that what I like about the setup is it's

0:17:32.920 --> 0:17:34.600
<v Speaker 12>all about it's kind of left behind.

0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:34.719
<v Speaker 4>Now.

0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.679
<v Speaker 12>A lot of that's been self inflicted because every Apple

0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:40.399
<v Speaker 12>event feels like it's a I feel like Michael J.

0:17:40.520 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 7>Fox and back to the future, you know. So there they.

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.760
<v Speaker 12>Continue to be left behind AI, but now with the

0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.760
<v Speaker 12>Google DOJ issue in the rear view, they will double

0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:52.840
<v Speaker 12>down ultimately that Gemini partnership. And when you look at

0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.760
<v Speaker 12>the install base, I think that I think Street is

0:17:56.880 --> 0:18:00.920
<v Speaker 12>underestimating what numbers look like for iPhone When you look

0:18:00.960 --> 0:18:04.399
<v Speaker 12>out over the next six, nine, twelve months, and I

0:18:04.440 --> 0:18:07.560
<v Speaker 12>think in big tech, I view Apple from a sentiment

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:09.919
<v Speaker 12>perspective relative to where I viewed Alphabet.

0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.440
<v Speaker 7>Maybe about six months ago.

0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:15.439
<v Speaker 4>You in your note ahead of the launch called Apple's

0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:19.200
<v Speaker 4>AI strategy quote invisible. You said the elephant in the room,

0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 4>and is the black over the stock AI's invisible or

0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:29.440
<v Speaker 4>Apple's invisible AI strategy? Did you get any more information

0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:31.400
<v Speaker 4>today at the launch about its strategy?

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:36.320
<v Speaker 12>I mean, I think fundamentally it they're keeping it close

0:18:36.359 --> 0:18:38.520
<v Speaker 12>to the vest right like you in the words, it

0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:39.480
<v Speaker 12>continues to be.

0:18:39.440 --> 0:18:40.600
<v Speaker 7>That black cloud.

0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:45.000
<v Speaker 12>I think they're waiting for ultimately what's going to be Gemini,

0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.680
<v Speaker 12>because I think they had a choice either go down

0:18:47.720 --> 0:18:51.120
<v Speaker 12>the route with Perplexity and ultimately look to acquire that,

0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.920
<v Speaker 12>or if it was a favorable ruling, then the candlelight

0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:59.359
<v Speaker 12>dinner with Google and sun Dar could ultimately start again

0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:02.480
<v Speaker 12>and then you could actually double down that partnership. And

0:19:02.480 --> 0:19:05.680
<v Speaker 12>that is I believe the direction. But look, tim they

0:19:05.720 --> 0:19:09.400
<v Speaker 12>got it. It was a black eye moment a year

0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:12.159
<v Speaker 12>ago when they weighed out the AI strategy.

0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:13.679
<v Speaker 7>I mean it's ninety five percent of that had a

0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:14.359
<v Speaker 7>backtrack on it.

0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:16.080
<v Speaker 4>Well, now and now they've lost a lot of the

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.280
<v Speaker 4>senior executives that were working on that to matter.

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.760
<v Speaker 12>And we've talked about there's a better chance to me

0:19:20.960 --> 0:19:26.480
<v Speaker 12>playing Ryder Cup bef page than any internal AI strategy

0:19:26.520 --> 0:19:27.679
<v Speaker 12>happening at Apple.

0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:29.560
<v Speaker 3>But is that such a bad thing? And this is

0:19:29.600 --> 0:19:30.880
<v Speaker 3>one of the things that Dan we talk a lot

0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:33.119
<v Speaker 3>about that maybe Apple's just kind of watching. There's a

0:19:33.200 --> 0:19:36.040
<v Speaker 3>lot of money slashing around trying to figure out what

0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.680
<v Speaker 3>ultimately are the standards, the methods the companies that really

0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.840
<v Speaker 3>dominate right in terms of AI kind of protocols, and

0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:45.520
<v Speaker 3>maybe Apple's like, I'll just watch and then we'll figure

0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:45.840
<v Speaker 3>it out.

0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:46.720
<v Speaker 9>Are that bad?

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:47.760
<v Speaker 7>I think it's bad.

0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:50.880
<v Speaker 12>I compare it to like Saturday night in New York City,

0:19:50.880 --> 0:19:52.880
<v Speaker 12>there's a restaurant where there's one person in there at

0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:55.600
<v Speaker 12>eight thirty, like, oh, they must know something everyone else does.

0:19:55.680 --> 0:19:57.480
<v Speaker 12>I'd rather go to the place where people are lining

0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:01.680
<v Speaker 12>up outside. When it comes to old AI, time's not

0:20:01.800 --> 0:20:05.800
<v Speaker 12>on their side. Lookquid open AI, look at Meta wartime CEO,

0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:09.040
<v Speaker 12>look at Microsoft. Look what are Google's done? That's why

0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.800
<v Speaker 12>you as in an all time high. So I do

0:20:11.920 --> 0:20:16.120
<v Speaker 12>believe cooks recognize this. But The problem is is that

0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:18.919
<v Speaker 12>now it's a go time moment when it comes to

0:20:19.080 --> 0:20:21.919
<v Speaker 12>AI and that look we've talked about, that's how you

0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:24.440
<v Speaker 12>get through three twenty five three point fifty four hundred

0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:28.240
<v Speaker 12>dollars stock is AI, you know relative to right now Apple,

0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:31.240
<v Speaker 12>they're kind of on the outside looking in of that

0:20:31.359 --> 0:20:34.359
<v Speaker 12>AI party where it's still ten pm going to four am.

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:37.000
<v Speaker 4>Everyone wants to know about what the heck is going

0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:40.320
<v Speaker 4>on over at eight Co Holdings, your chairman of this company. Now,

0:20:40.320 --> 0:20:42.160
<v Speaker 4>I think it took a lot of people by surprise.

0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:45.200
<v Speaker 4>It's a crypto treasury firm. And for those who aren't

0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:48.600
<v Speaker 4>familiar with the way this works, it's a Michael Sayler strategy,

0:20:48.720 --> 0:20:52.240
<v Speaker 4>but with a different cryptocurrency. This is world Coin backed

0:20:52.240 --> 0:20:57.320
<v Speaker 4>by Sam Altman eyeball scanning stuff what is going on here?

0:20:57.480 --> 0:21:00.240
<v Speaker 12>So I wouldn't have done this as chairman if just

0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:03.159
<v Speaker 12>a regular token back strategy. The reason I did this

0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:06.280
<v Speaker 12>it has to do with Sam, It has to do

0:21:06.359 --> 0:21:08.879
<v Speaker 12>with my view world is going to be a de

0:21:08.960 --> 0:21:13.080
<v Speaker 12>facto standard for identification authentication in terms of human proof

0:21:13.119 --> 0:21:15.000
<v Speaker 12>in AI world. This is much more of a tech

0:21:15.040 --> 0:21:18.320
<v Speaker 12>infrastructure play than when I'd say the traditional crypto play.

0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:22.000
<v Speaker 12>So obviously the reason I'm so excited about it is

0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:25.679
<v Speaker 12>really this is going to become I think a huge

0:21:25.720 --> 0:21:28.080
<v Speaker 12>part of the story and the narrative.

0:21:28.400 --> 0:21:31.480
<v Speaker 7>It's really an intersection of AI and crypto.

0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:33.080
<v Speaker 3>Explain that damn.

0:21:33.160 --> 0:21:35.800
<v Speaker 12>So what that means is, you know, as timpto, it's

0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:39.520
<v Speaker 12>IRIS scanning the orbs. Right going forward in the future,

0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:42.760
<v Speaker 12>especially in the robotic world bots everywhere, you're not going

0:21:42.800 --> 0:21:44.480
<v Speaker 12>to be able just identify through a boot check.

0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:46.240
<v Speaker 7>It's really going to be IRIS scanning.

0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:50.640
<v Speaker 12>What they've done already fifteen million humans on the platform

0:21:50.680 --> 0:21:52.880
<v Speaker 12>I believe, going about one hundred million over the next year.

0:21:53.520 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 12>That's going to be a form of identification. That's probably

0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:59.720
<v Speaker 12>the most privacy lock box out there, and it's secured

0:21:59.720 --> 0:22:03.600
<v Speaker 12>by token, a world token. So my view and our

0:22:03.680 --> 0:22:06.439
<v Speaker 12>view as a team, this is our early days in

0:22:06.520 --> 0:22:08.399
<v Speaker 12>terms of where this is all heading, and that's why

0:22:08.440 --> 0:22:09.560
<v Speaker 12>we want to do the strategy.

0:22:09.600 --> 0:22:11.680
<v Speaker 3>Now, what's to prevent somebody else from doing the same.

0:22:11.480 --> 0:22:12.359
<v Speaker 7>Thing they are.

0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:15.879
<v Speaker 12>They're playing a different game than they they're Nvidian twenty

0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:18.000
<v Speaker 12>twenty two, And in other words, like relative to what

0:22:18.200 --> 0:22:21.400
<v Speaker 12>Sam Alex and the team have built out, I mean

0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:24.760
<v Speaker 12>from an infrastructure and authentication perspective. They are I think

0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:27.000
<v Speaker 12>miles ahead. I don't see anyone that could catch them.

0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:30.320
<v Speaker 12>That's why we bet on World as part of the

0:22:30.320 --> 0:22:33.080
<v Speaker 12>acres strategy. And obviously having someone like Tom Lee and

0:22:33.080 --> 0:22:36.359
<v Speaker 12>bitmnor Huge, you know, big investor, that's another support that

0:22:36.400 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 12>we're so excited to have.

0:22:37.680 --> 0:22:40.679
<v Speaker 4>You've also got an ETF the launch back in June.

0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:45.879
<v Speaker 4>It's the dan Ives Webbush Ai Revolution ETF. It's up

0:22:45.920 --> 0:22:48.000
<v Speaker 4>sixteen percent since launch. It's up performing the S and

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:52.639
<v Speaker 4>P five hundred and the Nasdaq one hundred, Broadcom, Google

0:22:52.640 --> 0:22:57.119
<v Speaker 4>and Video, TSMC, Apple, They're the top holdings. Somebody watching

0:22:57.160 --> 0:22:59.480
<v Speaker 4>right now might be like, Okay, he's got a clothing company,

0:23:00.160 --> 0:23:03.000
<v Speaker 4>he's chairman of this crypto treasury company, he has this

0:23:03.119 --> 0:23:06.280
<v Speaker 4>day job at webbush. How am I sure that he's

0:23:06.320 --> 0:23:09.199
<v Speaker 4>going to manage this ETF and have the time and

0:23:09.280 --> 0:23:11.200
<v Speaker 4>resources to manage the CTF in my interest?

0:23:11.280 --> 0:23:13.520
<v Speaker 12>And that's a great question. I'd say, when you think

0:23:13.520 --> 0:23:17.679
<v Speaker 12>about my chairman role, it's all related to to AI

0:23:17.880 --> 0:23:20.480
<v Speaker 12>in the infrastructure, and there was this is interrelated to

0:23:20.600 --> 0:23:23.120
<v Speaker 12>my view of where the AI revolution gets built out,

0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:26.000
<v Speaker 12>and the reality is that ninety five percent of my

0:23:26.080 --> 0:23:28.720
<v Speaker 12>time has spent you know, three and a half million

0:23:28.760 --> 0:23:29.160
<v Speaker 12>aire Miles.

0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:30.120
<v Speaker 7>Well, I was twenty five years.

0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:32.879
<v Speaker 12>I think what's what's enabled to distinguish us is feet

0:23:32.920 --> 0:23:37.679
<v Speaker 12>on the ground talking whether it's private public partners and really,

0:23:37.720 --> 0:23:39.520
<v Speaker 12>you know, I think that's how investments have grown to.

0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:41.639
<v Speaker 4>Do you add do you add eight co holdings to

0:23:41.840 --> 0:23:42.680
<v Speaker 4>the IV ETF?

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:46.960
<v Speaker 12>No, No, that would be totally it's a total separate operation.

0:23:47.160 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 3>How do you keep firewalls between it? Though, Like there's

0:23:49.600 --> 0:23:51.600
<v Speaker 3>going to be people who are saying, yeah, of course

0:23:51.680 --> 0:23:54.199
<v Speaker 3>Dan's going to talk up that he loves alphabet and

0:23:54.200 --> 0:23:56.159
<v Speaker 3>that he looked loves nvidio. I mean he's got an

0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:58.040
<v Speaker 3>ETF like I've just how.

0:23:57.920 --> 0:24:01.119
<v Speaker 12>Do we sure on the on the UTF and for

0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:05.600
<v Speaker 12>like and and remember and part of how investors know

0:24:05.680 --> 0:24:08.440
<v Speaker 12>us the ETF is all based on our ives AI thirty.

0:24:08.440 --> 0:24:09.560
<v Speaker 7>It's all based on our research.

0:24:10.000 --> 0:24:11.880
<v Speaker 12>So the reality is I think part of how we've

0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:15.800
<v Speaker 12>gotten so, you know, the the customer, I'd say, from

0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:20.040
<v Speaker 12>an investor perspective, we've had massive you know, I think

0:24:20.080 --> 0:24:23.639
<v Speaker 12>reception for the ETF is because it's our thirty names

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:26.879
<v Speaker 12>that altermate. We've used the winners and we and we

0:24:27.040 --> 0:24:30.159
<v Speaker 12>change out every quarter. And that's I think you do

0:24:30.240 --> 0:24:32.719
<v Speaker 12>about ETF what it's based on. It's all based on

0:24:32.760 --> 0:24:36.080
<v Speaker 12>the research. And got everyone here that knows dan ives,

0:24:36.160 --> 0:24:39.280
<v Speaker 12>they know like feet on the street, not sitting there

0:24:39.280 --> 0:24:41.720
<v Speaker 12>in some Peter Malar fifteen to four of New York

0:24:41.720 --> 0:24:44.320
<v Speaker 12>City office building. And the only time we travel is

0:24:44.320 --> 0:24:45.680
<v Speaker 12>two times in San Francisco.

0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:47.880
<v Speaker 4>Now you just got back from Australia.

0:24:47.960 --> 0:24:50.040
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, so I literally landed here from Australia.

0:24:50.160 --> 0:24:51.320
<v Speaker 4>What were you doing there? Yeah?

0:24:51.400 --> 0:24:53.840
<v Speaker 7>So part part work, part pleasure.

0:24:54.359 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 12>So it's fun because look, I mean we when we

0:24:56.640 --> 0:25:00.439
<v Speaker 12>talk at AI Revolution, like in Sydney, in Melbourne, weren't

0:25:00.720 --> 0:25:03.640
<v Speaker 12>packed meetings because the reality is that this is not

0:25:03.720 --> 0:25:06.040
<v Speaker 12>just us. And that's why I spend so much my

0:25:06.200 --> 0:25:08.040
<v Speaker 12>time traveling around the globe.

0:25:08.080 --> 0:25:12.200
<v Speaker 3>What might be the irrational exuberance part of kind of

0:25:12.240 --> 0:25:15.000
<v Speaker 3>the trade today or the tech trade or the AI trade.

0:25:15.040 --> 0:25:17.120
<v Speaker 3>And just got about thirty seconds. There's got to be

0:25:17.200 --> 0:25:18.120
<v Speaker 3>some fluff out.

0:25:18.200 --> 0:25:21.080
<v Speaker 12>Just because you say AI forty times in a conference

0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:24.080
<v Speaker 12>call doesn't make yourself an AI need Look just because

0:25:24.400 --> 0:25:26.639
<v Speaker 12>like Tim he was wearing an AI shirt because he

0:25:26.720 --> 0:25:29.320
<v Speaker 12>says it fifteen times and says Tim on the back AI,

0:25:29.600 --> 0:25:32.119
<v Speaker 12>it doesn't mean. My view is you have to distinguish

0:25:32.200 --> 0:25:34.879
<v Speaker 12>the winners and the real ones from the fakes, and

0:25:35.240 --> 0:25:36.960
<v Speaker 12>that's the reality. And then look, that's what we spend

0:25:36.960 --> 0:25:37.880
<v Speaker 12>all of our time doing.

0:25:38.000 --> 0:25:40.880
<v Speaker 4>The one company you're most bullish on right now, public company.

0:25:40.640 --> 0:25:43.560
<v Speaker 12>mESC Ofai Pounteer, that's going to a trillion next two

0:25:43.560 --> 0:25:45.439
<v Speaker 12>to three years. And I always say the haters hate it,

0:25:45.760 --> 0:25:48.960
<v Speaker 12>hated fifteen, despise it, eighties, say it's super expensive one

0:25:48.960 --> 0:25:49.520
<v Speaker 12>point fifty.

0:25:49.800 --> 0:25:51.400
<v Speaker 7>They'll be saying the same thing at a trillion.

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:54.240
<v Speaker 4>Thanks to Dan I's Global head of Technology Research at

0:25:54.240 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 4>Webbush Securities.

0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:58.399
<v Speaker 3>Still ahead on Bloomberg Business Week, JP Morgan's Pria Mizra

0:25:58.600 --> 0:26:01.800
<v Speaker 3>on the bond market, the ming Fed meeting, that is

0:26:01.840 --> 0:26:05.280
<v Speaker 3>our coverage from future Proof twenty twenty five in Huntington Beach,

0:26:05.359 --> 0:26:06.760
<v Speaker 3>California continues.

0:26:06.920 --> 0:26:08.040
<v Speaker 4>This is Bloomberg.

0:26:09.440 --> 0:26:13.600
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live

0:26:13.640 --> 0:26:16.879
<v Speaker 1>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarflay and

0:26:16.880 --> 0:26:19.920
<v Speaker 1>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

0:26:20.040 --> 0:26:23.680
<v Speaker 1>listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

0:26:24.240 --> 0:26:26.919
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:26:27.520 --> 0:26:30.560
<v Speaker 4>We continue with this special edition of Bloomberg Business Week,

0:26:30.600 --> 0:26:33.960
<v Speaker 4>highlighting interviews from this week's future Proof Festival in sunny

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:35.440
<v Speaker 4>Huntington Beach, California.

0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:38.840
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a great opportunity to talk to people all

0:26:38.880 --> 0:26:42.280
<v Speaker 3>different types of rias, registered investment advisors and some with

0:26:42.359 --> 0:26:48.320
<v Speaker 3>specialties whether it comes to private credit, alt assets. But

0:26:48.400 --> 0:26:51.199
<v Speaker 3>we also got a lot of the I don't know,

0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:54.840
<v Speaker 3>traditional investment financial community, a lot of folks that are

0:26:54.840 --> 0:26:57.959
<v Speaker 3>often on Bloomberg, and you know, got to talk about

0:26:58.000 --> 0:27:01.800
<v Speaker 3>the upcoming FED meeting this week, the jobs data revisions

0:27:01.840 --> 0:27:04.560
<v Speaker 3>that we got last week, you know, all of the

0:27:04.640 --> 0:27:06.680
<v Speaker 3>data that was coming at us, and try to make

0:27:06.960 --> 0:27:10.879
<v Speaker 3>some consensus about what this means for investors in terms

0:27:10.880 --> 0:27:13.520
<v Speaker 3>of strategy. And you know, whether it was equities we

0:27:13.600 --> 0:27:15.080
<v Speaker 3>talked or often fixed income.

0:27:15.359 --> 0:27:18.560
<v Speaker 4>On that surging debt and deficits, a relentless attack on

0:27:18.640 --> 0:27:22.000
<v Speaker 4>the US Central Bank, and the most aggressive tariff policies

0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:25.120
<v Speaker 4>in almost a century. The question a recipe for bond

0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:27.760
<v Speaker 4>market chaos, one person says, guess again.

0:27:27.920 --> 0:27:30.159
<v Speaker 3>For all the shocks US treasuries have absorbed during the

0:27:30.160 --> 0:27:34.119
<v Speaker 3>first months of President Donald Trump's tempestuous second term, the

0:27:34.160 --> 0:27:37.280
<v Speaker 3>market has held up remarkably well, even as government bonds

0:27:37.280 --> 0:27:40.400
<v Speaker 3>from the UK to Japan have been pummeled amid heightened

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:41.399
<v Speaker 3>fiscal concerns.

0:27:41.640 --> 0:27:43.960
<v Speaker 4>We also got news this week that the Core consumer

0:27:44.040 --> 0:27:47.240
<v Speaker 4>price index rose as expected in August, keeping the Fed

0:27:47.320 --> 0:27:49.000
<v Speaker 4>on track to cut rates next week.

0:27:49.200 --> 0:27:51.520
<v Speaker 3>Now, before we got any data, we caught up with

0:27:51.560 --> 0:27:56.000
<v Speaker 3>Pria Misra Core Plus Bond ETF portfolio manager JP Morgan,

0:27:56.040 --> 0:27:57.760
<v Speaker 3>who joined us at future Proof.

0:27:58.080 --> 0:28:00.520
<v Speaker 13>There's a lot going on if you think about we've

0:28:00.520 --> 0:28:04.480
<v Speaker 13>had to deal with this year. You know, tariffs, fed, independence,

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:08.679
<v Speaker 13>the deficit, it's just and then you look at equities

0:28:08.680 --> 0:28:11.280
<v Speaker 13>at their highs and now bond's doing well, So what's

0:28:11.359 --> 0:28:14.439
<v Speaker 13>going on? So our view is everything's actually consistent with

0:28:14.520 --> 0:28:17.160
<v Speaker 13>the soft landing. What I actually think equity people called

0:28:17.200 --> 0:28:18.480
<v Speaker 13>soft landing and bond.

0:28:18.280 --> 0:28:18.919
<v Speaker 9>People called.

0:28:20.359 --> 0:28:24.440
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, the growth in the one to two percent range inflations.

0:28:24.480 --> 0:28:26.439
<v Speaker 13>The problem is not at two percent, but it's not

0:28:26.720 --> 0:28:29.639
<v Speaker 13>as high as people feared when we first heard tariffs.

0:28:29.840 --> 0:28:32.160
<v Speaker 13>So it's allowing the Fed to start to cut rates,

0:28:32.160 --> 0:28:34.359
<v Speaker 13>and then you have this slowdown in the labor market.

0:28:34.560 --> 0:28:36.480
<v Speaker 14>I think the hope stops right here.

0:28:36.720 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 13>There's low fire, low, higher we don't quite make it

0:28:40.040 --> 0:28:43.280
<v Speaker 13>to the high fire world that the FED can cut

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:45.720
<v Speaker 13>just enough in terms of time as well as how

0:28:45.800 --> 0:28:48.200
<v Speaker 13>much they cut to get the economy to stain the

0:28:48.240 --> 0:28:49.040
<v Speaker 13>soft landing mode.

0:28:49.040 --> 0:28:50.080
<v Speaker 14>I think that's the hope.

0:28:50.160 --> 0:28:55.240
<v Speaker 4>Why are you so confident that the tariff induced inflation

0:28:55.400 --> 0:28:59.120
<v Speaker 4>that we've seen has not been as prominent as people

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:01.800
<v Speaker 4>initially thought it would be. We just had very ridoults on.

0:29:01.880 --> 0:29:04.720
<v Speaker 4>He said, Hey, a lot of people did pull a

0:29:04.760 --> 0:29:06.600
<v Speaker 4>lot of people pulled pulled forward, a lot of companies

0:29:06.640 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 4>pulled forward. So the tariffs hadn't hit them yet.

0:29:09.000 --> 0:29:11.200
<v Speaker 13>Right, And so I think that is the risk scenario.

0:29:11.200 --> 0:29:13.000
<v Speaker 13>But I'll get to your question why I have so

0:29:13.080 --> 0:29:16.440
<v Speaker 13>it hasn't happened yet. Now again we're looking at the future,

0:29:16.480 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 13>and maybe it can happen because I was using inventory

0:29:19.640 --> 0:29:21.920
<v Speaker 13>and now when I'm paying more as a company, I can.

0:29:21.800 --> 0:29:22.200
<v Speaker 3>Pass it on.

0:29:22.480 --> 0:29:23.240
<v Speaker 14>Here's the issue.

0:29:23.240 --> 0:29:27.560
<v Speaker 13>Companies are realizing that consumers are cost conscious, and passing

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:32.760
<v Speaker 13>on price increases entirely runs the risk of consumers stopping

0:29:33.200 --> 0:29:36.000
<v Speaker 13>buying or reducing the amount that they're buying. So I

0:29:36.040 --> 0:29:38.400
<v Speaker 13>think that's why companies might be taking some of the

0:29:38.480 --> 0:29:41.680
<v Speaker 13>tariffs in their margins margins are high, so they can

0:29:41.680 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 13>afford to take some of the costs and the margins.

0:29:43.840 --> 0:29:45.920
<v Speaker 13>Some of it the currency's work, some of it may

0:29:45.920 --> 0:29:49.280
<v Speaker 13>be the foreign producer is taking some of that hit.

0:29:49.400 --> 0:29:51.800
<v Speaker 13>So I think that through the value chain is being

0:29:51.800 --> 0:29:54.600
<v Speaker 13>absorbed at different spots. But the other part is look

0:29:54.600 --> 0:29:57.000
<v Speaker 13>at the rest of inflation. So maybe goods inflation does

0:29:57.080 --> 0:29:59.560
<v Speaker 13>pick up because companies have to pass on at least

0:29:59.560 --> 0:30:02.400
<v Speaker 13>some of it, and a governor Waller thinks about half

0:30:02.440 --> 0:30:03.360
<v Speaker 13>of it will be passed.

0:30:03.360 --> 0:30:05.720
<v Speaker 14>Some people argue one third. Some part is going to

0:30:05.720 --> 0:30:06.120
<v Speaker 14>be passed.

0:30:06.160 --> 0:30:09.880
<v Speaker 13>Look at I mean, the US consumer basket is really

0:30:09.920 --> 0:30:13.520
<v Speaker 13>seventy five percent services, So we're looking at service inflation, wages,

0:30:13.960 --> 0:30:18.800
<v Speaker 13>rent inflation, X rent course services that it's not coming down,

0:30:18.920 --> 0:30:21.479
<v Speaker 13>but it's not going back up. In fact, wages were

0:30:21.560 --> 0:30:23.880
<v Speaker 13>seeing signs that wages are starting to slow down. So

0:30:24.280 --> 0:30:26.760
<v Speaker 13>our thought is, even if you get the goods related

0:30:26.800 --> 0:30:30.840
<v Speaker 13>price increases, services will likely offset it. And that's why

0:30:30.920 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 13>Chair Power something he said in Jackson Hall, which I

0:30:33.360 --> 0:30:35.720
<v Speaker 13>thought was the first time I've heard it in a while,

0:30:35.760 --> 0:30:39.320
<v Speaker 13>that it could be short lived, meaning that they can look.

0:30:39.200 --> 0:30:41.400
<v Speaker 14>Through any tariff related increases.

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:43.040
<v Speaker 13>Now it has to be TARIF related. So let's see

0:30:43.080 --> 0:30:45.440
<v Speaker 13>we get a CPI report later this week. Our view

0:30:45.520 --> 0:30:48.560
<v Speaker 13>is services is going to not be as troublesome. Goods

0:30:48.680 --> 0:30:51.040
<v Speaker 13>might look troublesome, but they can put it down as

0:30:51.080 --> 0:30:51.560
<v Speaker 13>one off.

0:30:52.120 --> 0:30:55.080
<v Speaker 3>It sounds like if things aren't so bad in terms

0:30:55.160 --> 0:30:58.360
<v Speaker 3>of inflationary pressures, and if you, as you kind of

0:30:58.400 --> 0:31:00.200
<v Speaker 3>laid out in terms of the jobs report, me, maybe

0:31:00.240 --> 0:31:02.680
<v Speaker 3>it was just that one month you know that we're

0:31:02.720 --> 0:31:05.280
<v Speaker 3>not going to continue to see losses. Why do we

0:31:05.400 --> 0:31:08.920
<v Speaker 3>need to cut rates? Is it justin I keep hearing naw,

0:31:08.880 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 3>I should say keep But the idea of an insurance

0:31:11.080 --> 0:31:13.719
<v Speaker 3>cut just in case? Is that what this is all about?

0:31:14.120 --> 0:31:17.280
<v Speaker 13>So I think the starting point is where I focus

0:31:17.360 --> 0:31:20.360
<v Speaker 13>on the starting point. We're in restrictive territory. If we

0:31:20.360 --> 0:31:21.840
<v Speaker 13>were at neutral levels.

0:31:21.560 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 3>Even though financial conditions are really loose, like you said.

0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:28.160
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, but intrasensitive sectors look at housing, look at consumer durables.

0:31:28.240 --> 0:31:30.960
<v Speaker 13>So sectors of the economy that are sort of levered

0:31:31.000 --> 0:31:33.480
<v Speaker 13>two interest rates are in.

0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:34.160
<v Speaker 9>A weak spot.

0:31:34.560 --> 0:31:37.880
<v Speaker 13>So that's why that restrictive level of interest rates matter.

0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:39.440
<v Speaker 14>And if the FED scenes.

0:31:39.320 --> 0:31:41.800
<v Speaker 3>It's not the FED mandate right, Like I think about

0:31:41.800 --> 0:31:44.000
<v Speaker 3>when I think about interest rates to help the housing market.

0:31:44.040 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 3>All I can think about is the financial crisis, and

0:31:45.880 --> 0:31:47.400
<v Speaker 3>I realize there are a lot of things going on

0:31:47.760 --> 0:31:49.959
<v Speaker 3>at that point prier, but I do wonder is that

0:31:49.960 --> 0:31:51.640
<v Speaker 3>what the FED needs to be concerned about.

0:31:52.040 --> 0:31:54.160
<v Speaker 13>So I think they've got other tools for it, whether

0:31:54.200 --> 0:31:57.239
<v Speaker 13>it's regulation or making sure that you know, banks are

0:31:57.280 --> 0:32:00.000
<v Speaker 13>not lending to remember the Ninja loans back.

0:32:00.040 --> 0:32:04.520
<v Speaker 14>And or assets. That was what the A was for

0:32:04.640 --> 0:32:06.400
<v Speaker 14>and people were getting loan. So I think there's other

0:32:06.400 --> 0:32:08.280
<v Speaker 14>ways to ensure that there's not excesses.

0:32:08.600 --> 0:32:10.640
<v Speaker 13>But when you look at the one tool that they have,

0:32:10.840 --> 0:32:15.200
<v Speaker 13>interest rates, we're in restrictive territory. Inflation slowly heading down,

0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:18.680
<v Speaker 13>which is impressive given the extent of tariffs. So average

0:32:18.680 --> 0:32:22.800
<v Speaker 13>effective TARIFFAF is fifteen percent, and yet inflation's not accelerating

0:32:23.280 --> 0:32:25.680
<v Speaker 13>and the job market is slowing. I think why Chair

0:32:25.760 --> 0:32:29.280
<v Speaker 13>Power was a little maybe hesitant in July was wasn't

0:32:29.280 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 13>sure it's a demand or supply and it's both factors

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:34.840
<v Speaker 13>are impacting the labor market. But there's clear evidence I

0:32:34.840 --> 0:32:37.520
<v Speaker 13>think that the demand side is there. Demand is slowing.

0:32:37.560 --> 0:32:40.920
<v Speaker 13>You're seeing it in college age. You know, the unemployment

0:32:41.000 --> 0:32:43.720
<v Speaker 13>rate for young people you're seeing it in hiring thousands.

0:32:43.800 --> 0:32:47.160
<v Speaker 4>That was pretty start. On Friday we talked about that.

0:32:47.200 --> 0:32:49.320
<v Speaker 4>The numbers that we got for young people. I mean,

0:32:49.600 --> 0:32:52.960
<v Speaker 4>anybody can speak anecdotally about this who has young graduates

0:32:53.000 --> 0:32:55.880
<v Speaker 4>from college or young people in their household. It's not

0:32:55.920 --> 0:32:56.640
<v Speaker 4>pretty out there.

0:32:57.120 --> 0:32:59.920
<v Speaker 13>And then that's why it's hard to put that on immigration.

0:33:00.200 --> 0:33:03.880
<v Speaker 13>There's absolutely an immigration impact on the labor market, but

0:33:04.040 --> 0:33:05.960
<v Speaker 13>not when you look at the young people who are

0:33:06.040 --> 0:33:08.239
<v Speaker 13>not getting jobs straight out of college. So I think

0:33:08.280 --> 0:33:12.080
<v Speaker 13>there's a demand aspect. Now, is it AI, is it tariffs?

0:33:12.200 --> 0:33:15.960
<v Speaker 13>Is it uncertainty? Hard to disentangle what's driving it, but

0:33:16.040 --> 0:33:18.120
<v Speaker 13>there is a demand aspect, and so I think the

0:33:18.160 --> 0:33:20.440
<v Speaker 13>FED is looking at that and saying, well, let's reduce

0:33:20.480 --> 0:33:23.600
<v Speaker 13>some of that restrictiveness. I think talk of fifty basis

0:33:23.640 --> 0:33:26.440
<v Speaker 13>points cut next week that might be a little aggressive,

0:33:26.760 --> 0:33:29.000
<v Speaker 13>because I think that is in case you see signs

0:33:29.000 --> 0:33:31.040
<v Speaker 13>that layoffs have really picked up. We do have an

0:33:31.040 --> 0:33:34.600
<v Speaker 13>initial claims report, one report that really spikes. I think

0:33:34.600 --> 0:33:36.880
<v Speaker 13>we can talk back about fifty. They don't have to

0:33:36.920 --> 0:33:40.280
<v Speaker 13>get aggressive, but just start that process and remain data

0:33:40.320 --> 0:33:40.720
<v Speaker 13>depends what.

0:33:40.760 --> 0:33:41.000
<v Speaker 10>Do you think.

0:33:41.000 --> 0:33:43.360
<v Speaker 3>There are visions on the labor data tomorrow. I mean,

0:33:43.400 --> 0:33:45.080
<v Speaker 3>we've been so focused on that. What do you think

0:33:45.080 --> 0:33:45.800
<v Speaker 3>that's going to show.

0:33:45.960 --> 0:33:48.840
<v Speaker 13>It's going to be between eight hundred thousand and a million,

0:33:48.960 --> 0:33:51.320
<v Speaker 13>So it's going to be a big number down. I

0:33:51.360 --> 0:33:53.240
<v Speaker 13>don't think it should be a big surprise. The labor

0:33:53.280 --> 0:33:56.520
<v Speaker 13>market was the outperformer when we looked at everything else.

0:33:57.000 --> 0:33:59.360
<v Speaker 13>So I think the fact that these revisions will actually

0:33:59.360 --> 0:34:01.960
<v Speaker 13>bring the labor get in line with GDP, in line

0:34:01.960 --> 0:34:05.080
<v Speaker 13>with consumer spending and so you know, and is it

0:34:05.520 --> 0:34:08.160
<v Speaker 13>I don't think it's political. I think it's just data

0:34:08.200 --> 0:34:11.120
<v Speaker 13>collection has been an issue really since the pandemic, and

0:34:11.160 --> 0:34:13.960
<v Speaker 13>globally you look at response rates globally, it's something we

0:34:13.960 --> 0:34:18.120
<v Speaker 13>should all think about. How do we get more accurate data?

0:34:18.160 --> 0:34:20.400
<v Speaker 13>And I think this is maybe revisions is the way.

0:34:20.280 --> 0:34:20.600
<v Speaker 7>To do it.

0:34:20.719 --> 0:34:22.600
<v Speaker 3>Or Mark Bickie was talking about this and he says,

0:34:22.640 --> 0:34:25.840
<v Speaker 3>you know, people are responding, they're just it's the responses

0:34:25.880 --> 0:34:28.719
<v Speaker 3>are slower and so that the revisions finally take all

0:34:28.760 --> 0:34:31.000
<v Speaker 3>that into accounts. So how do we get people to

0:34:31.040 --> 0:34:33.120
<v Speaker 3>respond more quickly right, so that the data is more

0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:34.359
<v Speaker 3>relevant in a timely matter?

0:34:34.560 --> 0:34:36.520
<v Speaker 13>Yeah, maybe you're supposed to spend more money. You figured

0:34:36.520 --> 0:34:38.359
<v Speaker 13>out some modern way of asking.

0:34:38.040 --> 0:34:44.520
<v Speaker 15>People technology maybe speaking of that, I'm curious about the

0:34:44.520 --> 0:34:46.759
<v Speaker 15>immigration side of things and the way you're looking at

0:34:46.920 --> 0:34:51.120
<v Speaker 15>immigration from your perspective as somebody who invests in fixed income,

0:34:51.200 --> 0:34:54.000
<v Speaker 15>recommends fixed income and thinks.

0:34:53.840 --> 0:34:57.120
<v Speaker 4>About strategy, because we're seeing a real crackdown obviously here

0:34:57.160 --> 0:34:59.560
<v Speaker 4>in the US, and that has implications for labor to

0:34:59.600 --> 0:35:03.000
<v Speaker 4>market up as implications for demand. Augusta Sarava, who writes

0:35:03.000 --> 0:35:05.399
<v Speaker 4>for our Economy team, had this really interesting piece out

0:35:05.400 --> 0:35:08.480
<v Speaker 4>over the weekend about Hispanic consumers hitting the brakes as

0:35:08.600 --> 0:35:11.279
<v Speaker 4>US firms worn a bit pullback. So now we're starting

0:35:11.320 --> 0:35:13.920
<v Speaker 4>to hear US firms talk about this segment of the

0:35:13.960 --> 0:35:17.600
<v Speaker 4>population spending least as a result of an immigration crackdown.

0:35:17.840 --> 0:35:18.600
<v Speaker 4>How are you looking at that?

0:35:18.680 --> 0:35:19.880
<v Speaker 14>Yeah, there's a great article.

0:35:20.080 --> 0:35:21.879
<v Speaker 13>I read it and it sort of hit a nerve

0:35:21.920 --> 0:35:24.279
<v Speaker 13>because a lot has been talked about immigration and the

0:35:24.280 --> 0:35:26.960
<v Speaker 13>impact on the labor market. What about immigration and growth,

0:35:27.280 --> 0:35:31.880
<v Speaker 13>it's a source of demand housing consumption in general, and

0:35:31.920 --> 0:35:34.279
<v Speaker 13>this idea that our star. So I'm going to take

0:35:34.280 --> 0:35:36.440
<v Speaker 13>it down to a bond PM, so I live in.

0:35:36.400 --> 0:35:37.000
<v Speaker 10>The art star.

0:35:37.120 --> 0:35:39.960
<v Speaker 13>I love this, But what is neutral interest rate? And

0:35:40.000 --> 0:35:42.520
<v Speaker 13>there's been this argument that actually neutral rate is maybe

0:35:42.560 --> 0:35:45.319
<v Speaker 13>it's three and a half, maybe it's four. You know,

0:35:45.360 --> 0:35:47.279
<v Speaker 13>you didn't ask me, but people who tell me we're

0:35:47.280 --> 0:35:50.120
<v Speaker 13>at neutral stock markets high, we're at neutral. FED doesn't

0:35:50.120 --> 0:35:52.080
<v Speaker 13>need to cut rates. And then I'd say, look at

0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:55.360
<v Speaker 13>the intrasensitive sectors. They are all kinds of frozen slowing.

0:35:57.320 --> 0:36:00.440
<v Speaker 13>It is restrictive, But what is that neutral rate? I

0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:02.800
<v Speaker 13>think immigration was a big part of why that neutral

0:36:02.840 --> 0:36:05.880
<v Speaker 13>rate has gone up, Like in you know, two thousand

0:36:05.920 --> 0:36:08.920
<v Speaker 13>and ten or two thousand and eight to twenty twenty,

0:36:09.200 --> 0:36:11.440
<v Speaker 13>we argue the neutral rate was two two and a half.

0:36:12.080 --> 0:36:13.560
<v Speaker 13>Now people are saying, maybe it's three to three and

0:36:13.600 --> 0:36:16.040
<v Speaker 13>a half. How much of that is immigration? And so

0:36:16.120 --> 0:36:19.280
<v Speaker 13>if immigration is heading low and this is a structural trend,

0:36:19.800 --> 0:36:22.160
<v Speaker 13>then I would argue, maybe that neutralate is low, and

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:25.360
<v Speaker 13>so where should the tenure be in equilibrium? Three and

0:36:25.400 --> 0:36:28.239
<v Speaker 13>a half to four seems fine in a recession. It's

0:36:28.280 --> 0:36:29.320
<v Speaker 13>going well below.

0:36:29.080 --> 0:36:29.720
<v Speaker 14>Three and a half.

0:36:30.040 --> 0:36:32.399
<v Speaker 13>But we're not pricing in a recession. So I don't

0:36:32.400 --> 0:36:36.760
<v Speaker 13>see a disconnect between bonds and stocks. They're both all spreads.

0:36:36.840 --> 0:36:40.080
<v Speaker 13>For that matter, They're all telling you an okay economy.

0:36:40.520 --> 0:36:43.799
<v Speaker 13>FED cutting just enough and hopefully we just stay here.

0:36:44.280 --> 0:36:46.200
<v Speaker 13>But if things slow down more wele then the Fed's

0:36:46.200 --> 0:36:46.760
<v Speaker 13>going to cut.

0:36:46.600 --> 0:36:48.680
<v Speaker 14>A lot more. Then that ten year is getting much lower.

0:36:48.719 --> 0:36:51.279
<v Speaker 13>So I bring it to whether it's consumption or the

0:36:51.400 --> 0:36:54.920
<v Speaker 13>labor market that immigration impacts that neutral rate lower.

0:36:54.840 --> 0:36:57.120
<v Speaker 3>Pre It just got about thirty forty seconds here. So

0:36:57.200 --> 0:36:59.480
<v Speaker 3>you add all this up, there's your macro. What does

0:36:59.520 --> 0:37:01.560
<v Speaker 3>it mean for investors in the fixed income world? Where

0:37:01.560 --> 0:37:03.040
<v Speaker 3>should they be allocating assets?

0:37:03.120 --> 0:37:05.560
<v Speaker 14>So fixed income should give you income and diversification.

0:37:05.640 --> 0:37:08.880
<v Speaker 13>It's giving you both right now in income in real terms,

0:37:08.960 --> 0:37:11.600
<v Speaker 13>the tenure is giving you two percent real rates thirty

0:37:11.680 --> 0:37:14.080
<v Speaker 13>years giving you even more. So I would say own

0:37:14.160 --> 0:37:16.480
<v Speaker 13>fixed income for yield, and then you have to go

0:37:16.560 --> 0:37:19.840
<v Speaker 13>out the curve. Diversification is where that curve comes, and

0:37:19.880 --> 0:37:21.440
<v Speaker 13>you need a little bit of duration. I don't know

0:37:21.440 --> 0:37:23.839
<v Speaker 13>anybody who's long the tenure. Well I know myself. We're

0:37:23.920 --> 0:37:25.800
<v Speaker 13>long a little bit of the tenure. A lot of

0:37:25.800 --> 0:37:28.360
<v Speaker 13>people are nervous about the deficit, right the deficit is

0:37:28.400 --> 0:37:31.719
<v Speaker 13>better today because of tariff revenues, So I think it's

0:37:31.800 --> 0:37:34.680
<v Speaker 13>priced in. You're getting paid to extend. Take a little

0:37:34.680 --> 0:37:38.440
<v Speaker 13>bit of credit risk, own some duration. The economy is okay.

0:37:38.520 --> 0:37:41.600
<v Speaker 13>So you can look at fixed income for that income

0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:45.360
<v Speaker 13>and if you've got what role does fixed and complain

0:37:45.360 --> 0:37:47.520
<v Speaker 13>a portfolio, if you've got risk assets, you want to

0:37:47.520 --> 0:37:49.919
<v Speaker 13>hedge those risk assets own a little bit of five

0:37:50.040 --> 0:37:52.040
<v Speaker 13>ten year duration, don't have to go further out, but

0:37:52.280 --> 0:37:54.240
<v Speaker 13>that's where you'll get that diversification benefit.

0:37:54.360 --> 0:37:57.480
<v Speaker 4>Our thanks to Priam isra Core plus bond ETF portfolio

0:37:57.600 --> 0:37:58.840
<v Speaker 4>manager at JP Morgan.

0:37:58.880 --> 0:38:00.239
<v Speaker 3>And that wraps up our first hour or of the

0:38:00.280 --> 0:38:03.160
<v Speaker 3>weekend edition of Bloomberg Business Week from Bloomberg Radio coming

0:38:03.239 --> 0:38:05.840
<v Speaker 3>up in the next sixty minutes. Much more from future

0:38:05.840 --> 0:38:07.040
<v Speaker 3>Proof twenty twenty five.

0:38:07.320 --> 0:38:09.719
<v Speaker 4>We hear from Masters and Business host Barry Ridholts to

0:38:09.719 --> 0:38:12.799
<v Speaker 4>get his opinion of fed independence plus black Rocks, Jamie

0:38:12.880 --> 0:38:15.760
<v Speaker 4>Majera on bringing private credit to the retirement class.

0:38:15.920 --> 0:38:20.240
<v Speaker 3>Also a psychologist's take on investing, and well, I gotta

0:38:20.280 --> 0:38:22.400
<v Speaker 3>say he also added some numbers two to back it

0:38:22.480 --> 0:38:25.040
<v Speaker 3>all up in terms of his thinking. This is Bloomberg

0:38:25.080 --> 0:38:25.640
<v Speaker 3>Business Week.

0:38:25.680 --> 0:38:28.480
<v Speaker 4>I'm Carol Masser and I'm Tim Steineveeck. Stay with us.

0:38:28.640 --> 0:38:31.560
<v Speaker 4>More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:39.120
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast. Catch

0:38:39.200 --> 0:38:42.440
<v Speaker 2>us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern

0:38:42.560 --> 0:38:45.640
<v Speaker 2>Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg

0:38:45.680 --> 0:38:50.040
<v Speaker 2>Business app, or watch us live on YouTube Plenty.

0:38:49.760 --> 0:38:51.799
<v Speaker 3>Ahead in our second hour of the weekend edition of

0:38:51.800 --> 0:38:55.320
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Business Week, highlighting our conversation from this past week's

0:38:55.360 --> 0:38:59.040
<v Speaker 3>future Proof Festival held in Huntington Beach, California, I should

0:38:59.040 --> 0:39:02.840
<v Speaker 3>say lovely Huntington Beach, California was pretty sweet.

0:39:03.040 --> 0:39:04.600
<v Speaker 4>You sound like you still want to be there.

0:39:04.719 --> 0:39:06.959
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know, I'm a happy girl on I'm Mirror Beach.

0:39:07.400 --> 0:39:11.520
<v Speaker 4>You really are. I will say, I didn't know you

0:39:11.560 --> 0:39:14.760
<v Speaker 4>could be so productive, Carol, Master lying in the sand

0:39:14.960 --> 0:39:17.719
<v Speaker 4>just at your iPhone working on the show, Because that's

0:39:17.760 --> 0:39:18.279
<v Speaker 4>pretty cool.

0:39:18.640 --> 0:39:19.440
<v Speaker 3>I did do it.

0:39:19.560 --> 0:39:23.040
<v Speaker 4>He did, Hey, Blenny Moore. Including a conversation with the

0:39:23.080 --> 0:39:26.200
<v Speaker 4>host of the Masters in Business podcasts. Yeah, Barry Redholts

0:39:26.239 --> 0:39:29.160
<v Speaker 4>you all know him, plus a chief behavioral officer on

0:39:29.239 --> 0:39:32.680
<v Speaker 4>how psychology and behavioral finance are coming to the forefront

0:39:32.880 --> 0:39:35.719
<v Speaker 4>of wealth management. Carol, I didn't even know this job

0:39:35.760 --> 0:39:36.880
<v Speaker 4>existed exactly.

0:39:37.360 --> 0:39:38.920
<v Speaker 3>That's a fascinating conversation.

0:39:39.400 --> 0:39:39.560
<v Speaker 7>You know.

0:39:39.719 --> 0:39:42.880
<v Speaker 3>The other interesting conversations and a major theme of future

0:39:42.880 --> 0:39:45.560
<v Speaker 3>proof was AI. No surprise, right, but everybody trying to

0:39:45.560 --> 0:39:47.960
<v Speaker 3>figure out how to use AI when it comes to

0:39:48.000 --> 0:39:50.440
<v Speaker 3>investment management. What does it mean going forward?

0:39:50.680 --> 0:39:52.880
<v Speaker 4>I don't know. I don't think anybody knows.

0:39:52.960 --> 0:39:53.759
<v Speaker 3>I don't think so either.

0:39:53.920 --> 0:39:56.120
<v Speaker 4>And I think the question a lot of people have is, Okay,

0:39:56.760 --> 0:39:59.560
<v Speaker 4>am I still going to take on the same role

0:40:00.160 --> 0:40:02.200
<v Speaker 4>in the world of AI moving forward? Will I still

0:40:02.200 --> 0:40:04.360
<v Speaker 4>need the same number of employees? What's it going to

0:40:04.360 --> 0:40:07.360
<v Speaker 4>do for my business? But also equally important, what's it

0:40:07.400 --> 0:40:09.920
<v Speaker 4>going to do for the non AI companies that we

0:40:10.000 --> 0:40:13.120
<v Speaker 4>invest in? When are we going to see that result

0:40:13.280 --> 0:40:14.440
<v Speaker 4>of increased productivity?

0:40:14.600 --> 0:40:14.839
<v Speaker 8>Yeah?

0:40:14.880 --> 0:40:17.600
<v Speaker 3>Exactly. I think that's the stage we're moving into when

0:40:17.600 --> 0:40:19.719
<v Speaker 3>it comes to AI in a big way, all right,

0:40:19.760 --> 0:40:22.600
<v Speaker 3>First up this hour, though, there is a trend picking

0:40:22.680 --> 0:40:26.040
<v Speaker 3>up momentum as the big US banks partner up with

0:40:26.239 --> 0:40:29.799
<v Speaker 3>asset managers. Just about a week ago, Bloomberg reported that

0:40:29.840 --> 0:40:32.600
<v Speaker 3>City Group is entrusting Blackrock with tens of billions of

0:40:32.600 --> 0:40:35.600
<v Speaker 3>dollars of clients investments, in a move that will close

0:40:35.640 --> 0:40:38.880
<v Speaker 3>the bank's only remaining in house asset manager and outsource

0:40:39.120 --> 0:40:41.120
<v Speaker 3>more of its wealth units offerings.

0:40:41.719 --> 0:40:44.600
<v Speaker 4>In a new partnership, Blackrock will manage the assets of

0:40:44.680 --> 0:40:47.400
<v Speaker 4>thousands of the bank's wealthiest clients who currently have accounts

0:40:47.440 --> 0:40:50.600
<v Speaker 4>with City Investment Management. Our next guest involved in all

0:40:50.680 --> 0:40:53.799
<v Speaker 4>of this, Jamie Majeira, was named head of US Wealth

0:40:53.800 --> 0:40:57.200
<v Speaker 4>Advisory in July. Her job also includes heading up retirement

0:40:57.239 --> 0:41:00.399
<v Speaker 4>at Blackrock, it's the world's largest asset manager, which natched

0:41:00.480 --> 0:41:03.680
<v Speaker 4>a record twelve point five trillion dollars in assets as

0:41:03.680 --> 0:41:06.719
<v Speaker 4>of the company's most recent quarterly update. She joined us

0:41:06.760 --> 0:41:07.640
<v Speaker 4>from future Proof.

0:41:07.880 --> 0:41:08.440
<v Speaker 3>How are you.

0:41:08.840 --> 0:41:11.440
<v Speaker 16>I'm great. I mean, we're at the future Proof Festival. Like,

0:41:11.600 --> 0:41:13.360
<v Speaker 16>it doesn't get better than this. This is beautiful.

0:41:13.400 --> 0:41:15.440
<v Speaker 3>It's pretty amazing, right to talk about like kind of

0:41:15.440 --> 0:41:17.560
<v Speaker 3>what's going on in the markets against this backdrop. I

0:41:17.600 --> 0:41:20.200
<v Speaker 3>want to ask you though about the news last week.

0:41:20.280 --> 0:41:22.399
<v Speaker 3>You were definitely quoted in one of the Bloomberg stories.

0:41:22.440 --> 0:41:25.480
<v Speaker 3>It was exclusive. You said, this is a sector defining moment.

0:41:25.719 --> 0:41:26.160
<v Speaker 3>How come?

0:41:26.800 --> 0:41:27.040
<v Speaker 17>Well?

0:41:27.080 --> 0:41:29.320
<v Speaker 16>You know, the thing that I find so interesting about

0:41:29.320 --> 0:41:32.000
<v Speaker 16>the wealth market is that as firms are getting larger,

0:41:32.120 --> 0:41:34.680
<v Speaker 16>right as wealth management firms, as banks, they're getting larger,

0:41:34.920 --> 0:41:37.560
<v Speaker 16>and they're looking to really lean in on what they

0:41:37.560 --> 0:41:41.239
<v Speaker 16>do best, which is serving their clients, expanding their relationships

0:41:41.239 --> 0:41:43.719
<v Speaker 16>with their clients, and as they do that, they need

0:41:43.760 --> 0:41:46.840
<v Speaker 16>to work with partners, partners who can be their outsource provider,

0:41:46.880 --> 0:41:49.440
<v Speaker 16>who can take on the investment management, who can build

0:41:49.560 --> 0:41:52.799
<v Speaker 16>custom solutions for them. And so this is just one

0:41:52.840 --> 0:41:57.640
<v Speaker 16>example of a very large global bank asking Blackrock, selecting

0:41:57.680 --> 0:42:00.359
<v Speaker 16>Blackrock to be their outsource provider. But we're still this

0:42:00.600 --> 0:42:04.160
<v Speaker 16>every single day from financial advisors all around the country.

0:42:04.360 --> 0:42:06.680
<v Speaker 16>They're looking to work with firms like Blackrock so that

0:42:06.719 --> 0:42:08.960
<v Speaker 16>we can customize solutions for them and take on the

0:42:09.000 --> 0:42:11.400
<v Speaker 16>investment management so they can do what they do best,

0:42:11.640 --> 0:42:13.719
<v Speaker 16>serve their clients, expand their sol This is just the

0:42:13.719 --> 0:42:15.120
<v Speaker 16>beginning of the beginning.

0:42:15.160 --> 0:42:18.360
<v Speaker 4>I was just going to ask, should we should investors

0:42:18.480 --> 0:42:20.440
<v Speaker 4>expect more of these partnerships to be announced.

0:42:20.440 --> 0:42:21.920
<v Speaker 9>Absolutely absolutely.

0:42:21.960 --> 0:42:26.200
<v Speaker 16>And by the way, today Blackrock has over thirty thousand

0:42:26.440 --> 0:42:30.040
<v Speaker 16>financial advisors just in the US who are already relying

0:42:30.080 --> 0:42:32.759
<v Speaker 16>on us to be their outsourced provider. Then you enter

0:42:32.760 --> 0:42:35.160
<v Speaker 16>a firm Lake City, a massive global bank, there will

0:42:35.200 --> 0:42:37.719
<v Speaker 16>be more firms coming who are going to come to

0:42:37.760 --> 0:42:39.640
<v Speaker 16>Blackrock and ask for this type of partnership.

0:42:40.000 --> 0:42:43.160
<v Speaker 3>So you guys see a lot. How would you describe

0:42:43.200 --> 0:42:45.359
<v Speaker 3>the investment environment we were reminded. We were just talking

0:42:45.400 --> 0:42:47.680
<v Speaker 3>to Matt Middleton, who puts on this event, and said,

0:42:47.760 --> 0:42:49.920
<v Speaker 3>last year it was all about the upcoming US elections.

0:42:50.239 --> 0:42:53.040
<v Speaker 3>They've happened, right, we have a president who's very active

0:42:53.640 --> 0:42:56.399
<v Speaker 3>on things that really impact the investment environment. How would

0:42:56.440 --> 0:42:57.720
<v Speaker 3>you describe the environment today?

0:42:58.160 --> 0:43:00.840
<v Speaker 16>Look, I think a lot of people with reason, of course,

0:43:00.920 --> 0:43:05.600
<v Speaker 16>have uncertainty around economics, uncertainty around tariffs, uncertainty around everything

0:43:05.600 --> 0:43:06.200
<v Speaker 16>and what that.

0:43:06.080 --> 0:43:09.040
<v Speaker 9>Means for their portfolio. What I find most.

0:43:10.520 --> 0:43:13.279
<v Speaker 16>Positive and exciting is the fact of all of these

0:43:13.320 --> 0:43:15.719
<v Speaker 16>people who are thinking about what does this mean to

0:43:15.800 --> 0:43:18.240
<v Speaker 16>my savings, What does this mean to my ability to retire,

0:43:18.320 --> 0:43:20.000
<v Speaker 16>What does this mean to my ability to send my

0:43:20.080 --> 0:43:23.719
<v Speaker 16>children to school. Well, they're working with professionals like financial advisors,

0:43:23.719 --> 0:43:25.799
<v Speaker 16>like so many of the advisors that are here, and

0:43:25.840 --> 0:43:28.080
<v Speaker 16>the job of the advisor is to help them navigate

0:43:28.080 --> 0:43:30.960
<v Speaker 16>that uncertainty and help them focus on the long term. Right,

0:43:31.000 --> 0:43:33.360
<v Speaker 16>It's about time in the market, not timing the market.

0:43:33.440 --> 0:43:35.120
<v Speaker 16>And that's something that we believe very strongly.

0:43:35.480 --> 0:43:37.440
<v Speaker 4>What are the questions that they're asking right now, especially

0:43:37.480 --> 0:43:40.080
<v Speaker 4>the wealthier clients, What do they want to know? What

0:43:40.080 --> 0:43:42.200
<v Speaker 4>do they want to invest in? What opportunities do they

0:43:42.239 --> 0:43:42.960
<v Speaker 4>want you to provide.

0:43:43.160 --> 0:43:46.840
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, there's two massive things. One is taxes. Help me

0:43:47.000 --> 0:43:49.320
<v Speaker 16>better manage my taxes. I can control for that, I

0:43:49.360 --> 0:43:49.960
<v Speaker 16>can't control.

0:43:50.000 --> 0:43:51.719
<v Speaker 9>Markets. Help me b better managing.

0:43:51.760 --> 0:43:53.160
<v Speaker 3>It's so funny that you say that. I feel like,

0:43:53.200 --> 0:43:55.319
<v Speaker 3>all of a sudden, we've noticed too. I think in

0:43:55.400 --> 0:43:59.200
<v Speaker 3>conversations that it's yes, about returned but it is about

0:43:59.280 --> 0:44:03.759
<v Speaker 3>text self advantages. Yes, exact exactly. Tax ope, so go go,

0:44:03.760 --> 0:44:04.120
<v Speaker 3>go ahead.

0:44:04.560 --> 0:44:07.360
<v Speaker 16>But you're right, that is the that is top of

0:44:07.400 --> 0:44:10.720
<v Speaker 16>mind for high net worth ultra high networth investors because

0:44:10.760 --> 0:44:12.960
<v Speaker 16>one they can control it too. There's actually a pretty

0:44:12.960 --> 0:44:16.600
<v Speaker 16>significant implication on their portfolios when you think about taxes.

0:44:16.920 --> 0:44:18.799
<v Speaker 9>And so it's exactly why a.

0:44:18.719 --> 0:44:22.000
<v Speaker 16>Few years ago Blackrock acquired a company called a Perio.

0:44:22.680 --> 0:44:25.960
<v Speaker 16>A Perio was a direct indexing company, a platform that

0:44:26.000 --> 0:44:30.560
<v Speaker 16>had best in class capabilities to help end investors customize portfolios,

0:44:30.719 --> 0:44:33.920
<v Speaker 16>writ single security portfolios, maybe for their values, their beliefs,

0:44:33.920 --> 0:44:36.640
<v Speaker 16>most importantly their taxes. And today that's one of our

0:44:36.719 --> 0:44:40.879
<v Speaker 16>largest growing platforms. A Perio direct indexing also spider Rock,

0:44:41.440 --> 0:44:45.160
<v Speaker 16>where you can do custom overlay, custom options overlay. Think

0:44:45.160 --> 0:44:48.520
<v Speaker 16>about that Apple executive that worked at Apple for years

0:44:48.560 --> 0:44:50.400
<v Speaker 16>and years and years and has all of this Apple

0:44:50.440 --> 0:44:53.560
<v Speaker 16>stock that's emotional for them. They want to hold onto that.

0:44:53.560 --> 0:44:55.520
<v Speaker 16>There's a lot of tax implications in that, but at

0:44:55.520 --> 0:44:57.239
<v Speaker 16>the same time they can hedge against that, they can

0:44:57.320 --> 0:44:59.160
<v Speaker 16>run options on top of that, and that is top

0:44:59.200 --> 0:44:59.520
<v Speaker 16>of mind.

0:44:59.600 --> 0:45:01.560
<v Speaker 4>Okay, taxes is one thing. What's the other one?

0:45:01.640 --> 0:45:02.440
<v Speaker 9>Private markets?

0:45:02.680 --> 0:45:04.440
<v Speaker 4>Yeah? I knew you were going to say, of course.

0:45:04.200 --> 0:45:06.080
<v Speaker 9>You did private markets every headline.

0:45:06.080 --> 0:45:08.160
<v Speaker 4>Well, what part of that specifically when you when you

0:45:08.160 --> 0:45:10.920
<v Speaker 4>think of alternatives, when you think of private markets where.

0:45:10.840 --> 0:45:12.800
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, So let me take a step back and say

0:45:13.560 --> 0:45:16.520
<v Speaker 16>one of the things we believe very very very strongly

0:45:16.560 --> 0:45:18.640
<v Speaker 16>at Blackrock is our job is to help make it

0:45:18.719 --> 0:45:21.880
<v Speaker 16>easier for investors to access the full power of the

0:45:21.920 --> 0:45:26.719
<v Speaker 16>capital markets. Now previously capital markets meant public markets. We

0:45:26.880 --> 0:45:30.160
<v Speaker 16>know the opportunities that exist beyond the public markets in

0:45:30.200 --> 0:45:33.799
<v Speaker 16>the realm of private companies. And so it's why last

0:45:33.920 --> 0:45:36.759
<v Speaker 16>year we acquired pre Quinn. From a data perspective, we

0:45:36.880 --> 0:45:41.080
<v Speaker 16>inquired g I p HPS because we feel so strongly frequent.

0:45:40.800 --> 0:45:43.520
<v Speaker 3>Being I know, for those of us in the journalism world,

0:45:43.600 --> 0:45:45.120
<v Speaker 3>I mean, that's where we go in terms of for

0:45:45.200 --> 0:45:46.440
<v Speaker 3>data on the private markets.

0:45:46.520 --> 0:45:50.200
<v Speaker 16>Every slide, every chart you see source Prequin and it

0:45:50.280 --> 0:45:52.920
<v Speaker 16>is really the only source of truth on private markets.

0:45:52.960 --> 0:45:55.240
<v Speaker 16>And so if we if we have that in addition

0:45:55.280 --> 0:45:58.279
<v Speaker 16>to all of these capabilities that help us build products

0:45:58.360 --> 0:46:01.880
<v Speaker 16>that allow people to more efficiently access the private markets,

0:46:02.160 --> 0:46:04.800
<v Speaker 16>then we can better serve our clients in the wealth market,

0:46:05.080 --> 0:46:07.680
<v Speaker 16>not just institutions any longer. And also in retirement.

0:46:08.040 --> 0:46:10.560
<v Speaker 3>We're talking with Jamie Madeira, managing director ahead of US

0:46:10.560 --> 0:46:12.839
<v Speaker 3>Wealth Advisory and head of Retirement at black Rock here

0:46:12.880 --> 0:46:17.319
<v Speaker 3>at future Proof in Huntington Beach. We reported too that

0:46:18.000 --> 0:46:20.160
<v Speaker 3>I think Lari Fink, your CEO, has talked about in

0:46:20.200 --> 0:46:24.440
<v Speaker 3>your CFO about offering target date retirement funds that include

0:46:24.480 --> 0:46:28.200
<v Speaker 3>private assets next year. I mean it meshes kind of

0:46:28.239 --> 0:46:30.040
<v Speaker 3>with the survey that you guys put out today that

0:46:30.120 --> 0:46:33.320
<v Speaker 3>talks about twenty four percent of retirement plans are considering

0:46:33.360 --> 0:46:36.240
<v Speaker 3>adding all the assets over the next year, private equity,

0:46:36.280 --> 0:46:39.400
<v Speaker 3>credit and other investments. Is that still on track? Give

0:46:39.480 --> 0:46:40.520
<v Speaker 3>us Can you give us an update?

0:46:40.640 --> 0:46:40.799
<v Speaker 18>Yeah?

0:46:40.840 --> 0:46:43.600
<v Speaker 16>Absolutely so, yes, it is still on track. Look, I

0:46:43.600 --> 0:46:45.200
<v Speaker 16>think there's been a lot of headlines from a lot

0:46:45.200 --> 0:46:48.600
<v Speaker 16>of different firms about people coming to market with ideas

0:46:48.800 --> 0:46:51.000
<v Speaker 16>of how to incorporate private markets.

0:46:50.680 --> 0:46:53.000
<v Speaker 3>Safely, right, because we have to remind everybody they're not

0:46:53.040 --> 0:46:55.279
<v Speaker 3>as liquid as a lot of investments that normally your

0:46:55.280 --> 0:46:56.399
<v Speaker 3>retirement funds go into.

0:46:56.560 --> 0:46:59.560
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, there are many considerations that planned sponsors and investors

0:46:59.560 --> 0:47:01.680
<v Speaker 16>need to think about to make sure it's right for them.

0:47:02.080 --> 0:47:04.640
<v Speaker 16>Our view is that if we can do this thoughtfully

0:47:04.680 --> 0:47:08.960
<v Speaker 16>strategically integrating private markets private assets into a target date

0:47:08.960 --> 0:47:12.200
<v Speaker 16>fund alongside of public markets, and manage that glide path

0:47:12.280 --> 0:47:15.000
<v Speaker 16>so it's appropriate for people at different stages of their life,

0:47:15.160 --> 0:47:18.560
<v Speaker 16>then we can actually deliver them fifteen percent more returns

0:47:19.040 --> 0:47:21.560
<v Speaker 16>over a forty year or fifteen percent more retirement asset's

0:47:21.560 --> 0:47:23.759
<v Speaker 16>a just say over a forty year time horizon, that's

0:47:23.760 --> 0:47:26.239
<v Speaker 16>a long time, and that's a lot more a lot

0:47:26.239 --> 0:47:27.480
<v Speaker 16>more retirement savings.

0:47:27.680 --> 0:47:30.040
<v Speaker 9>And so we believe strongly in that we are on track.

0:47:30.239 --> 0:47:32.640
<v Speaker 16>We actually are already in market as well in the

0:47:32.680 --> 0:47:36.160
<v Speaker 16>smaller and mid size retirement space. So we partnered with

0:47:36.200 --> 0:47:39.719
<v Speaker 16>a company called Great Gray, and we're powering their glidepath

0:47:39.920 --> 0:47:42.719
<v Speaker 16>so that they can incorporate public and private markets into

0:47:42.719 --> 0:47:43.760
<v Speaker 16>one target date solution.

0:47:44.040 --> 0:47:46.720
<v Speaker 4>Do you you know when we think about target date solutions, now,

0:47:47.800 --> 0:47:50.440
<v Speaker 4>what we know and what we've experienced is like the

0:47:50.680 --> 0:47:53.920
<v Speaker 4>asset allocation between equities and fixed income. Do we get

0:47:53.920 --> 0:47:57.040
<v Speaker 4>to a point where that's not even a choice anymore,

0:47:57.040 --> 0:47:59.719
<v Speaker 4>It's like equities, fixed income, and.

0:47:59.680 --> 0:48:01.360
<v Speaker 9>Private It's interesting.

0:48:01.400 --> 0:48:03.239
<v Speaker 16>I think for so long people have thought about the

0:48:03.280 --> 0:48:07.960
<v Speaker 16>sixty forty portfolio equity is fixed income. Some people may

0:48:08.160 --> 0:48:10.800
<v Speaker 16>be as old we are to say fifty thirty twenty

0:48:11.000 --> 0:48:13.839
<v Speaker 16>that twenty percent might be ten percent private equity, ten

0:48:13.880 --> 0:48:18.040
<v Speaker 16>percent private credit, different diversified assets in there. But absolutely

0:48:18.080 --> 0:48:20.800
<v Speaker 16>I think the new portfolio, the portfolio of the future,

0:48:20.840 --> 0:48:24.360
<v Speaker 16>to fund these longer lives, has to incorporate private assets.

0:48:24.640 --> 0:48:24.840
<v Speaker 10>You know.

0:48:24.880 --> 0:48:26.359
<v Speaker 3>One of the things out of your survey that thought

0:48:26.360 --> 0:48:29.960
<v Speaker 3>was really interesting was guaranteed income is now a top priority.

0:48:30.160 --> 0:48:32.360
<v Speaker 3>Eighty six percent of workplace savers want it, and for

0:48:32.400 --> 0:48:35.160
<v Speaker 3>the first time, one hundred percent of employers say they

0:48:35.160 --> 0:48:38.840
<v Speaker 3>feel responsible for helping participants generate income and retirement. I

0:48:38.960 --> 0:48:42.080
<v Speaker 3>keep thinking about my father who had a pension and

0:48:42.200 --> 0:48:45.479
<v Speaker 3>VA benefits and investments, and not a lot of people

0:48:45.520 --> 0:48:48.640
<v Speaker 3>are doing pensions right or anything anymore, and so I

0:48:48.680 --> 0:48:51.319
<v Speaker 3>am curious about how employers are thinking about this. That

0:48:51.440 --> 0:48:51.920
<v Speaker 3>struck me.

0:48:52.120 --> 0:48:54.400
<v Speaker 16>Yeah, So it's so interesting because you raise such a

0:48:54.400 --> 0:48:56.920
<v Speaker 16>good point. So employers used to have pension plans, right,

0:48:56.960 --> 0:48:59.960
<v Speaker 16>and then the conversion to defined contribution. Well, we're now

0:49:00.239 --> 0:49:04.719
<v Speaker 16>seeing pensionization of defined contribution. Think about private assets have

0:49:04.800 --> 0:49:07.600
<v Speaker 16>been available in pensions for decades, Well, now they'll be

0:49:07.640 --> 0:49:11.080
<v Speaker 16>available in four oh one K plans, retirement plans. Same

0:49:11.120 --> 0:49:13.440
<v Speaker 16>thing with guaranteed income. That's what the benefit of a

0:49:13.480 --> 0:49:16.560
<v Speaker 16>pension was. But there's no flexibility around that. So black

0:49:16.640 --> 0:49:17.280
<v Speaker 16>Rock has.

0:49:17.520 --> 0:49:18.440
<v Speaker 9>Created a solution.

0:49:18.480 --> 0:49:20.640
<v Speaker 16>It's a target date fund solution, and it's called Life

0:49:20.680 --> 0:49:24.200
<v Speaker 16>Path Paycheck. And what it does is it actually delivers

0:49:24.280 --> 0:49:27.600
<v Speaker 16>you the option the choice to have guaranteed income. You

0:49:27.640 --> 0:49:30.200
<v Speaker 16>can choose to take that or not. But it's giving

0:49:30.400 --> 0:49:34.920
<v Speaker 16>savers and employers the option to have their employees have

0:49:35.040 --> 0:49:37.960
<v Speaker 16>more security, have more simplicity, have more confidence in their

0:49:37.960 --> 0:49:41.200
<v Speaker 16>retirement income. One of the things I'll just add is

0:49:41.680 --> 0:49:44.040
<v Speaker 16>that I found so interesting in our survey when you

0:49:44.040 --> 0:49:49.400
<v Speaker 16>look at retirees, twenty seven percent of retirees, only twenty

0:49:49.400 --> 0:49:52.479
<v Speaker 16>seven percent are confident in their ability to live through

0:49:52.520 --> 0:49:53.640
<v Speaker 16>retirement on their savings.

0:49:53.680 --> 0:49:54.480
<v Speaker 3>Well, that's discouraged.

0:49:54.480 --> 0:49:55.239
<v Speaker 9>Its discouraging.

0:49:55.239 --> 0:49:57.200
<v Speaker 4>Well, so what's the implication of that. Just in last

0:49:57.280 --> 0:49:59.200
<v Speaker 4>minute that we have with you, because that has implications

0:49:59.200 --> 0:50:01.879
<v Speaker 4>beyond our own portance. That is real societal implications.

0:50:02.000 --> 0:50:04.560
<v Speaker 16>It has societal implications, and that there is going to

0:50:04.560 --> 0:50:06.759
<v Speaker 16>be this whole group of Americans who are trying to

0:50:06.800 --> 0:50:09.399
<v Speaker 16>live through retirement. Maybe they do another job, maybe they

0:50:09.520 --> 0:50:12.319
<v Speaker 16>spend differently. That shouldn't be the case. Longer live should

0:50:12.320 --> 0:50:14.359
<v Speaker 16>be a blessing. They shouldn't be a challenge. And that's

0:50:14.400 --> 0:50:17.520
<v Speaker 16>where guaranteed income comes in. That's where the modernization of

0:50:17.560 --> 0:50:20.040
<v Speaker 16>four to one K plans to include private assets comes in.

0:50:20.239 --> 0:50:22.399
<v Speaker 16>And that's where more advice comes in, which is why

0:50:22.400 --> 0:50:25.480
<v Speaker 16>we're here at future Proof Festival. Advisors play a massive

0:50:25.520 --> 0:50:26.000
<v Speaker 16>role in this.

0:50:26.120 --> 0:50:29.000
<v Speaker 4>Our thanks to Jamie Majia, head of US Wealth Advisory

0:50:29.000 --> 0:50:30.359
<v Speaker 4>and Retirement at black Rock.

0:50:30.480 --> 0:50:32.959
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Business Week

0:50:33.000 --> 0:50:36.080
<v Speaker 3>featuring our favorite conversations from the future Proof Festival.

0:50:36.360 --> 0:50:39.440
<v Speaker 4>Next up, a familiar voice to the Bloomberg audience, Barry Redholts,

0:50:39.480 --> 0:50:42.200
<v Speaker 4>the host of Masters in Business and at the Money.

0:50:42.280 --> 0:50:45.040
<v Speaker 3>We talk interest rates and fed independence and a whole

0:50:45.040 --> 0:50:45.839
<v Speaker 3>lot more with him.

0:50:46.120 --> 0:50:48.040
<v Speaker 4>That's next. This is Bloomberg.

0:50:49.600 --> 0:50:53.479
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Listen live

0:50:53.560 --> 0:50:56.440
<v Speaker 2>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car

0:50:56.560 --> 0:50:59.359
<v Speaker 2>Play and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

0:50:59.440 --> 0:51:02.239
<v Speaker 2>You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

0:51:02.239 --> 0:51:06.400
<v Speaker 2>flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:51:07.600 --> 0:51:09.560
<v Speaker 3>As you know, we are highlighting our coverage of the

0:51:09.560 --> 0:51:11.960
<v Speaker 3>future Proof Festival that was held early in the week

0:51:11.960 --> 0:51:15.799
<v Speaker 3>in Huntington Beach, California. Now the event brings together financial advisors,

0:51:15.840 --> 0:51:19.400
<v Speaker 3>wealth managers, and company execs, all involved in the wealth

0:51:19.480 --> 0:51:22.279
<v Speaker 3>ecosystem to talk about the future of the business and

0:51:22.320 --> 0:51:24.879
<v Speaker 3>the factors impacting investor money.

0:51:24.840 --> 0:51:27.000
<v Speaker 4>With us at future Proof. A man quite familiar to

0:51:27.040 --> 0:51:30.400
<v Speaker 4>our audience, Barry Ridolts. He's host of the Bloomberg podcasts

0:51:30.440 --> 0:51:33.719
<v Speaker 4>and broadcast Masters in Business and at the Money. He's

0:51:33.719 --> 0:51:37.200
<v Speaker 4>also chairman and CIO of Ridholt's Wealth Management, which is

0:51:37.239 --> 0:51:39.160
<v Speaker 4>a close partner with the event.

0:51:39.440 --> 0:51:42.400
<v Speaker 17>We also know that sometimes you got to scratch a

0:51:42.520 --> 0:51:46.160
<v Speaker 17>clients itch to prevent them from engaging in worse behavior.

0:51:46.440 --> 0:51:48.279
<v Speaker 17>I like to say, you can't get alpha if you

0:51:48.320 --> 0:51:51.759
<v Speaker 17>don't at least lock in beta. So think of your portfolio.

0:51:51.880 --> 0:51:55.000
<v Speaker 17>It's I know, it's Sonny and eighty hard to talk

0:51:55.000 --> 0:51:58.840
<v Speaker 17>about Christmas trees. But if you're the CORER portfolio is

0:51:58.880 --> 0:52:02.920
<v Speaker 17>a broad passive, that's the tree. Hey, what's the garland?

0:52:03.080 --> 0:52:06.080
<v Speaker 17>What's the ornaments you want to put on that? If

0:52:06.120 --> 0:52:08.840
<v Speaker 17>you want to say, hey, I want to broad value

0:52:10.080 --> 0:52:14.560
<v Speaker 17>index to accentuate all the games I've already seen in technology.

0:52:14.960 --> 0:52:18.080
<v Speaker 17>And by the way, the same thing is taking place overseas.

0:52:18.600 --> 0:52:23.920
<v Speaker 17>You have fifteen years of US outperformance. Maybe it's time

0:52:23.960 --> 0:52:29.640
<v Speaker 17>to think about broader exposure overseas, international and international value.

0:52:30.239 --> 0:52:31.600
<v Speaker 10>That's how you'll if.

0:52:31.480 --> 0:52:34.600
<v Speaker 17>You can't pick who's the big winner from AI, pick

0:52:34.680 --> 0:52:36.920
<v Speaker 17>all the secondary winners that are going to be able

0:52:36.960 --> 0:52:40.000
<v Speaker 17>to be more productive, more more profitable.

0:52:40.200 --> 0:52:44.520
<v Speaker 3>So it's I love talking with you. I'm amazed that

0:52:44.560 --> 0:52:47.120
<v Speaker 3>we haven't talked politics at all, and especially like AI.

0:52:47.160 --> 0:52:48.960
<v Speaker 3>If you think about last was it last week the

0:52:48.960 --> 0:52:51.640
<v Speaker 3>big dinner of the big tech CEOs all in DC

0:52:52.160 --> 0:52:55.480
<v Speaker 3>surrounding the President AI was a big part of you know,

0:52:55.520 --> 0:52:57.719
<v Speaker 3>they were kind of thanking him for what he's doing

0:52:57.760 --> 0:53:00.880
<v Speaker 3>in terms of the world of AI. Where is politics?

0:53:00.920 --> 0:53:02.560
<v Speaker 3>What did y'all have to say about politics? Did it

0:53:02.600 --> 0:53:03.840
<v Speaker 3>even enter into the conversation?

0:53:04.080 --> 0:53:06.879
<v Speaker 17>So I tried to push that question a little bit.

0:53:07.200 --> 0:53:10.320
<v Speaker 17>And the consensus I've gotten, and I don't want to

0:53:10.320 --> 0:53:13.680
<v Speaker 17>put words into his mouth, but the consensus I've gotten

0:53:13.840 --> 0:53:19.000
<v Speaker 17>from economists on both the left and the right have been, Hey,

0:53:19.040 --> 0:53:22.680
<v Speaker 17>this was a very robust economy heading into twenty twenty five.

0:53:23.360 --> 0:53:26.480
<v Speaker 17>It's starting to slow. That doesn't mean we're going into

0:53:26.480 --> 0:53:29.400
<v Speaker 17>a recession, but it's starting to look more and more

0:53:30.080 --> 0:53:33.000
<v Speaker 17>like growth is going to not be three percent. Yeah,

0:53:33.080 --> 0:53:34.600
<v Speaker 17>probably isn't going to be two percent.

0:53:35.160 --> 0:53:36.799
<v Speaker 10>And the consensus seems.

0:53:36.560 --> 0:53:38.680
<v Speaker 17>To be that this is an unforced error, that this

0:53:38.880 --> 0:53:44.400
<v Speaker 17>is between the craziness of the Doge layoffs and just

0:53:44.640 --> 0:53:48.480
<v Speaker 17>generally the mayhem, not just the tariffs themselves. Hey, if

0:53:48.520 --> 0:53:51.080
<v Speaker 17>I said we're going to pass a consumer VAT tax,

0:53:51.640 --> 0:53:54.520
<v Speaker 17>you would think that's bearish for consumer spending and bearish

0:53:54.560 --> 0:53:58.879
<v Speaker 17>for the economy. Someone like Joe says, it's we look

0:53:58.880 --> 0:54:02.200
<v Speaker 17>at tariffs as a tax on the consumer. So far,

0:54:02.800 --> 0:54:06.480
<v Speaker 17>the pass through hasn't showed up yet because, first of all,

0:54:06.520 --> 0:54:09.040
<v Speaker 17>a lot of companies ordered and this is me speaking,

0:54:09.080 --> 0:54:11.560
<v Speaker 17>not him, there was a lot of inventory build in

0:54:11.600 --> 0:54:14.720
<v Speaker 17>advance of the tariffs, and then taraffs were on tariffs.

0:54:14.719 --> 0:54:18.959
<v Speaker 17>We're off right, So it's taken a while to work

0:54:19.000 --> 0:54:22.680
<v Speaker 17>its way through the system. It seems that it's just

0:54:22.760 --> 0:54:25.720
<v Speaker 17>starting to show up, both in hiring and in inflation.

0:54:25.760 --> 0:54:27.480
<v Speaker 4>We got a minute left, Berryer, I promised we talk

0:54:27.520 --> 0:54:29.640
<v Speaker 4>about the FED with you, because it doesn't seem like

0:54:29.680 --> 0:54:32.400
<v Speaker 4>the bond market is taking seriously the threat to FED independence.

0:54:32.440 --> 0:54:33.239
<v Speaker 4>Why do you think that is?

0:54:34.400 --> 0:54:37.560
<v Speaker 17>I honestly don't know. To me, I'm a stock guy

0:54:37.800 --> 0:54:40.880
<v Speaker 17>as much as I own fixed income on munis and

0:54:40.920 --> 0:54:44.360
<v Speaker 17>tips and things like that. It seems like James Carvell

0:54:44.440 --> 0:54:46.480
<v Speaker 17>was right in the nineteen nineties, but in the twenty

0:54:46.520 --> 0:54:51.680
<v Speaker 17>twenties the stock market is the most feared index and

0:54:51.760 --> 0:54:52.880
<v Speaker 17>most feared asset class.

0:54:52.920 --> 0:54:54.120
<v Speaker 10>Because it was the stock market.

0:54:54.239 --> 0:54:57.680
<v Speaker 4>It's not sending a message that it's is threatened that well.

0:54:58.680 --> 0:55:02.120
<v Speaker 17>I think the mark it is pragmatic and cares less

0:55:02.120 --> 0:55:05.080
<v Speaker 17>about academic discussions of independence.

0:55:04.880 --> 0:55:06.600
<v Speaker 10>And loves lower rates.

0:55:06.640 --> 0:55:10.200
<v Speaker 17>Now maybe it's inflationary down the road, but the difference

0:55:10.239 --> 0:55:13.680
<v Speaker 17>between stocks and bonds is bonds are about a return

0:55:13.719 --> 0:55:16.360
<v Speaker 17>of capital, which means you're waiting five or ten years.

0:55:16.840 --> 0:55:20.600
<v Speaker 17>Stocks are about the next quarter at least when you look

0:55:20.640 --> 0:55:22.640
<v Speaker 17>at you know in the short run, it's a voting

0:55:22.680 --> 0:55:24.759
<v Speaker 17>machine and a long run, it's a weighing machine. I

0:55:24.760 --> 0:55:27.440
<v Speaker 17>think in the short run it's a probability machine. And

0:55:27.480 --> 0:55:31.080
<v Speaker 17>the stock market is saying that independence is a concern.

0:55:31.680 --> 0:55:34.520
<v Speaker 17>But give us some of those delicious low rates. We

0:55:35.280 --> 0:55:37.480
<v Speaker 17>will we will let us show you what we can do.

0:55:37.800 --> 0:55:40.200
<v Speaker 17>If you take seventy five one hundred basis points off,

0:55:40.480 --> 0:55:43.200
<v Speaker 17>everybody's going to party, and that's what the market is

0:55:43.239 --> 0:55:45.399
<v Speaker 17>looking at one to two quarters out.

0:55:45.480 --> 0:55:47.440
<v Speaker 3>As long as you're not worried that those low rates

0:55:47.480 --> 0:55:50.320
<v Speaker 3>mean that everything's coming undone and the economy's falling apart.

0:55:50.560 --> 0:55:52.320
<v Speaker 10>I mean the the odds.

0:55:52.360 --> 0:55:55.920
<v Speaker 17>If you Torsten Slock said there was a zero percent

0:55:56.000 --> 0:56:00.040
<v Speaker 17>chance of a recession in January, he moderated that what

0:56:00.200 --> 0:56:02.719
<v Speaker 17>I said ten percent in January. Now we're forty five

0:56:02.800 --> 0:56:03.680
<v Speaker 17>fifty five percent.

0:56:03.760 --> 0:56:06.480
<v Speaker 4>Does it change your view, as chief investment officer at

0:56:06.560 --> 0:56:09.080
<v Speaker 4>Ridolts Wealth Management on what your clients should be doing,

0:56:09.120 --> 0:56:10.800
<v Speaker 4>because you have a whole part of your book dedicated

0:56:10.800 --> 0:56:13.280
<v Speaker 4>to buying the entire haystack. Don't look for the needle

0:56:13.640 --> 0:56:14.520
<v Speaker 4>just by the haystacks.

0:56:15.880 --> 0:56:18.680
<v Speaker 17>So yeah, we very much do that, but we also

0:56:18.800 --> 0:56:21.839
<v Speaker 17>know that sometimes you got to scratch a client's itch

0:56:21.960 --> 0:56:25.400
<v Speaker 17>to prevent them from engaging in worse behavior. I like

0:56:25.440 --> 0:56:27.319
<v Speaker 17>to say, you can't get alpha if you don't at

0:56:27.360 --> 0:56:30.759
<v Speaker 17>least lock in beta. So think of your portfolio. It's

0:56:30.920 --> 0:56:33.919
<v Speaker 17>I know it's sonny and eighty hard to talk about

0:56:33.960 --> 0:56:37.080
<v Speaker 17>Christmas trees. But if you're the core of your portfolio

0:56:37.440 --> 0:56:39.920
<v Speaker 17>is a broad passive index, that's the tree.

0:56:40.280 --> 0:56:43.560
<v Speaker 10>Hey, what's the garland. What's the ornament you want to

0:56:43.600 --> 0:56:44.040
<v Speaker 10>put on that?

0:56:44.600 --> 0:56:46.800
<v Speaker 17>If you want to say, hey, I want to broad

0:56:47.040 --> 0:56:52.319
<v Speaker 17>value index to accentuate all the games I've already seen

0:56:52.360 --> 0:56:55.400
<v Speaker 17>in technology and by the way, the same thing is

0:56:55.480 --> 0:56:59.880
<v Speaker 17>taking place overseas. You have fifteen years of US outperforming.

0:57:01.400 --> 0:57:06.360
<v Speaker 17>Maybe it's time to think about broader exposure overseas, international

0:57:06.719 --> 0:57:08.320
<v Speaker 17>and international value.

0:57:08.880 --> 0:57:10.200
<v Speaker 10>That's how you'll if.

0:57:10.160 --> 0:57:13.279
<v Speaker 17>You can't pick who's the big winner from AI, pick

0:57:13.360 --> 0:57:15.600
<v Speaker 17>all the secondary winners that are going to be able

0:57:15.640 --> 0:57:18.680
<v Speaker 17>to be more productive, more more profitable.

0:57:18.840 --> 0:57:20.760
<v Speaker 4>We're speaking with Barry rid Hoolts. He's the host of

0:57:20.800 --> 0:57:24.000
<v Speaker 4>the Masters in Business podcast on Bloomberg Radio and radio show.

0:57:24.040 --> 0:57:27.080
<v Speaker 4>He's stunder chairman and chief investment officer of rid Holt's

0:57:27.160 --> 0:57:30.120
<v Speaker 4>Wealth Management. He's also the author of How Not to Invest,

0:57:30.160 --> 0:57:32.480
<v Speaker 4>The Ideas numbers and behaviors that destroy wealth and how

0:57:32.480 --> 0:57:35.439
<v Speaker 4>to avoid them. So, Barry, if you were to add

0:57:35.440 --> 0:57:37.480
<v Speaker 4>a new chapter to your book that came out earlier

0:57:37.520 --> 0:57:40.800
<v Speaker 4>this year was published, It came out a few months

0:57:40.800 --> 0:57:43.640
<v Speaker 4>ago in March eighteenth, So a lot has happened between

0:57:43.640 --> 0:57:45.360
<v Speaker 4>now and then. What would it be on.

0:57:45.960 --> 0:57:48.320
<v Speaker 17>So there's a chapter in the book called love Trump,

0:57:48.360 --> 0:57:48.880
<v Speaker 17>Hat Trump.

0:57:48.920 --> 0:57:50.440
<v Speaker 10>That's no way to invest.

0:57:50.680 --> 0:57:54.480
<v Speaker 17>And after the election in November, I heard from a

0:57:54.520 --> 0:57:58.240
<v Speaker 17>number of people, clients, friends, family members, Oh, this guy

0:57:58.280 --> 0:58:00.800
<v Speaker 17>got elected again. I'm selling my house, all my stocks.

0:58:01.240 --> 0:58:04.000
<v Speaker 17>And I said to them, hey, when he was elected

0:58:04.000 --> 0:58:06.680
<v Speaker 17>in twenty sixteen, had you done that, look at all

0:58:06.680 --> 0:58:08.280
<v Speaker 17>the money you would have left on the table on

0:58:08.440 --> 0:58:10.520
<v Speaker 17>By the way, the same is true for Joe Biden

0:58:10.560 --> 0:58:14.480
<v Speaker 17>in twenty twenty and for Barack Obama in eight and twelve.

0:58:15.240 --> 0:58:17.800
<v Speaker 17>Your job as an investor, as a mom and pop

0:58:17.920 --> 0:58:21.680
<v Speaker 17>long term investor, is to not interfere with the market's

0:58:21.680 --> 0:58:26.360
<v Speaker 17>ability to compound your portfolio gains on top of gains

0:58:26.400 --> 0:58:30.240
<v Speaker 17>on top of gains, dividends reinvested. If you look at

0:58:30.240 --> 0:58:32.400
<v Speaker 17>the history of one at Democrats in the White House,

0:58:32.440 --> 0:58:35.600
<v Speaker 17>when Republicans in the White House, it's a fraction of

0:58:35.800 --> 0:58:39.960
<v Speaker 17>just keeping an invested the entire time. Especially you know,

0:58:40.000 --> 0:58:44.840
<v Speaker 17>we see the gen Z and the millennials significantly underinvested

0:58:44.920 --> 0:58:48.000
<v Speaker 17>compared to the gen X and the boomers, And it's like,

0:58:48.080 --> 0:58:52.080
<v Speaker 17>you guys have a thirty forty year investment horizon. What

0:58:52.280 --> 0:58:56.400
<v Speaker 17>happens in any random Tuesday or any random year shouldn't matter.

0:58:56.800 --> 0:58:59.840
<v Speaker 17>You have forty years to let it compound. Hey, if

0:58:59.840 --> 0:59:02.520
<v Speaker 17>you're a boomer and you're retiring in two years, you

0:59:02.560 --> 0:59:05.360
<v Speaker 17>want to throttle back your risk. That has nothing to

0:59:05.400 --> 0:59:07.920
<v Speaker 17>do with the President Tariff's markets. It just has to

0:59:07.920 --> 0:59:11.000
<v Speaker 17>do with, Hey, we understand the sequence of returns problem.

0:59:11.040 --> 0:59:13.160
<v Speaker 17>You don't want to retire into a big down year.

0:59:13.520 --> 0:59:16.080
<v Speaker 17>So maybe one hundred percent equities isn't right. Maybe you

0:59:16.120 --> 0:59:19.600
<v Speaker 17>should be closer to sixty forty and slide that down

0:59:19.680 --> 0:59:23.040
<v Speaker 17>as you go. But the chapter I would write is about,

0:59:23.400 --> 0:59:26.960
<v Speaker 17>here's what everybody said about tariffs in April, and here's

0:59:26.960 --> 0:59:29.160
<v Speaker 17>how this is going to be the end of Packs Americana,

0:59:29.200 --> 0:59:32.320
<v Speaker 17>the end of the US dollar. The US equity market's

0:59:32.360 --> 0:59:34.240
<v Speaker 17>going to hell. By the way, we're up eleven to

0:59:34.280 --> 0:59:35.439
<v Speaker 17>twelve percent for the year.

0:59:35.960 --> 0:59:39.040
<v Speaker 10>If you ignored that from the lows.

0:59:39.560 --> 0:59:42.640
<v Speaker 17>Had you listened to, have you ignored that noise, then

0:59:43.080 --> 0:59:46.800
<v Speaker 17>you're doing great. Had you gotten nervous and tapped out,

0:59:47.280 --> 0:59:49.200
<v Speaker 17>you're pulling your hair out. You don't know when to

0:59:49.200 --> 0:59:53.320
<v Speaker 17>get back in, and it's a problem. So the noise,

0:59:53.600 --> 0:59:58.120
<v Speaker 17>the fear mongering, just the easy temptation to give into

0:59:58.160 --> 0:59:59.439
<v Speaker 17>your olympic system.

1:00:00.080 --> 1:00:01.440
<v Speaker 10>In the book I wrote.

1:00:01.760 --> 1:00:05.320
<v Speaker 17>We are not Wired for This, and the Bill Bernstein,

1:00:05.400 --> 1:00:10.480
<v Speaker 17>the neurologists Last Investors said investors have to learn to

1:00:10.520 --> 1:00:13.920
<v Speaker 17>control their olympic system. People who fail to do that

1:00:14.040 --> 1:00:16.320
<v Speaker 17>are going to die poor, and it's really true.

1:00:16.360 --> 1:00:18.280
<v Speaker 3>We're going to talk like the importance of psychology a

1:00:18.320 --> 1:00:21.120
<v Speaker 3>little bit later on with Dan Crosby. He's a chief

1:00:21.160 --> 1:00:23.720
<v Speaker 3>behavioral officer of a Ryan Advisor Solution, so we're looking

1:00:23.760 --> 1:00:26.080
<v Speaker 3>forward to that. Two things I really want to ask you, though,

1:00:26.480 --> 1:00:28.760
<v Speaker 3>so many people talking about the importance of private markets.

1:00:28.800 --> 1:00:32.160
<v Speaker 3>It makes me think my whole career in business news,

1:00:32.160 --> 1:00:34.520
<v Speaker 3>which is a few decades, has all been about the

1:00:34.520 --> 1:00:38.640
<v Speaker 3>public markets, and increasingly everybody's saying it's all about private markets.

1:00:38.960 --> 1:00:41.040
<v Speaker 3>And I wonder, is there going to be a world

1:00:41.120 --> 1:00:44.240
<v Speaker 3>at some point where private markets are more dominant in

1:00:44.320 --> 1:00:48.000
<v Speaker 3>somebody's portfolio, and rightfully so than public markets. Do we

1:00:48.120 --> 1:00:50.560
<v Speaker 3>really see that kind of a shift.

1:00:50.840 --> 1:00:51.840
<v Speaker 10>I'm not so sure.

1:00:51.960 --> 1:00:56.040
<v Speaker 17>I mean, here's the thing about every financial product that's

1:00:56.120 --> 1:00:59.640
<v Speaker 17>ever come along since the beginning of time, stocks, mutual funds,

1:00:59.640 --> 1:01:04.720
<v Speaker 17>spack trust, whatever it is, ninety percent of them are

1:01:04.960 --> 1:01:08.720
<v Speaker 17>junk and the top ten percent are spectacular. So if

1:01:08.760 --> 1:01:11.040
<v Speaker 17>you can get into the best fill in the blank

1:01:11.560 --> 1:01:16.600
<v Speaker 17>mutual fund, etf venture capital fund, private credit, private equity,

1:01:16.680 --> 1:01:21.640
<v Speaker 17>private real estate, private debt, fantastic, But just be aware

1:01:22.040 --> 1:01:25.160
<v Speaker 17>there's a land rush. The best companies are going to

1:01:25.200 --> 1:01:29.400
<v Speaker 17>deliver the best risk adjusted returns relative to the fees.

1:01:29.920 --> 1:01:32.520
<v Speaker 10>The bottom I don't know, fifty sixty seventy.

1:01:32.160 --> 1:01:36.200
<v Speaker 17>Percent they're in there, They're not contributing to your portfolio

1:01:36.720 --> 1:01:38.640
<v Speaker 17>the way the top tier is.

1:01:38.840 --> 1:01:39.880
<v Speaker 10>It's Sturgeon's lore.

1:01:40.120 --> 1:01:42.880
<v Speaker 17>Ninety percent of everything is grasp Well.

1:01:42.960 --> 1:01:44.919
<v Speaker 4>That just seems to be so concerned about why people

1:01:45.200 --> 1:01:48.200
<v Speaker 4>are concerned about privates going into four oh one k's

1:01:48.280 --> 1:01:50.520
<v Speaker 4>and retirement accounts, because you're not going to get the

1:01:50.520 --> 1:01:51.760
<v Speaker 4>best of the best, is the argument.

1:01:52.800 --> 1:01:55.760
<v Speaker 17>It depends on who's doing it. If you take and

1:01:56.120 --> 1:01:59.640
<v Speaker 17>I won't name names or embarrass anybody now, but there

1:01:59.680 --> 1:02:03.760
<v Speaker 17>are number of shops that are multi trillion dollar companies

1:02:03.800 --> 1:02:05.880
<v Speaker 17>that have been doing this for decades. They have a

1:02:05.920 --> 1:02:11.880
<v Speaker 17>deep research process, and they are fiduciaries and very customer focused.

1:02:12.520 --> 1:02:13.720
<v Speaker 10>I'm comfortable that.

1:02:14.880 --> 1:02:17.800
<v Speaker 17>Five, ten percent, fifteen percent. I'm not quite at the

1:02:18.080 --> 1:02:21.720
<v Speaker 17>fifty thirty twenty level yet. But if you can be

1:02:21.920 --> 1:02:23.960
<v Speaker 17>with a shop that can get you access to the

1:02:24.000 --> 1:02:27.160
<v Speaker 17>best of the best, having a few percentage of it

1:02:27.240 --> 1:02:30.240
<v Speaker 17>is not going to hurt. Just remember, the fees are higher,

1:02:30.280 --> 1:02:33.280
<v Speaker 17>the lock up periods the longer. If you need liquidity,

1:02:33.280 --> 1:02:35.960
<v Speaker 17>maybe not for you. It's amazing how often I have

1:02:36.000 --> 1:02:39.280
<v Speaker 17>conversations with people who are so enthusiastic about privates and

1:02:39.320 --> 1:02:41.240
<v Speaker 17>then you show this is what's going to cost, here's

1:02:41.280 --> 1:02:41.840
<v Speaker 17>the lockup.

1:02:42.320 --> 1:02:45.120
<v Speaker 10>Oh, not to match it kind of scares them.

1:02:45.160 --> 1:02:47.640
<v Speaker 17>So Hey, if you're twenty five, thirty years old and

1:02:47.680 --> 1:02:50.600
<v Speaker 17>you got a thirty forty year investment horizon and you

1:02:50.640 --> 1:02:52.840
<v Speaker 17>want you don't care about the lockup, you want to

1:02:52.880 --> 1:02:55.320
<v Speaker 17>have ten to fifteen percent of your portfolio on that,

1:02:56.000 --> 1:03:00.560
<v Speaker 17>knock yourself out. Just be really selective. It doesn't matter SPACs,

1:03:00.720 --> 1:03:02.720
<v Speaker 17>mutual funds, ETF.

1:03:02.280 --> 1:03:04.240
<v Speaker 3>The public markets are not going away.

1:03:04.680 --> 1:03:05.440
<v Speaker 10>I don't think so.

1:03:05.640 --> 1:03:09.640
<v Speaker 3>And in fact because it Sorps feels really interesting the show.

1:03:09.480 --> 1:03:12.680
<v Speaker 17>So you know, there was a really fascinating study done

1:03:12.720 --> 1:03:15.960
<v Speaker 17>that looked at the concentration in the Mag seven and

1:03:16.040 --> 1:03:19.320
<v Speaker 17>it's really misleading because the Max seven have made eight

1:03:19.400 --> 1:03:22.960
<v Speaker 17>hundred and fifty nine acquisitions over the past twenty years,

1:03:22.960 --> 1:03:26.800
<v Speaker 17>so the Max seven is really almost the Max seven fifty.

1:03:26.920 --> 1:03:29.280
<v Speaker 4>That was Barry Ridholts hoposed to be Bloomberg Masters in

1:03:29.360 --> 1:03:32.560
<v Speaker 4>Business podcast and at the Money. Arry also chairman and

1:03:32.640 --> 1:03:34.320
<v Speaker 4>CIO of Ridholt's Wealth Management.

1:03:34.440 --> 1:03:38.160
<v Speaker 3>Still ahead on Bloomberg BusinessWeek, how psychology and behavioral finance

1:03:38.240 --> 1:03:40.640
<v Speaker 3>are coming to the forefront of wealth management.

1:03:41.000 --> 1:03:43.040
<v Speaker 4>That's next. This is Bloomberg.

1:03:46.920 --> 1:03:50.800
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch

1:03:50.840 --> 1:03:53.520
<v Speaker 1>us live weekday afternoons from two to five eas during

1:03:53.760 --> 1:03:57.640
<v Speaker 1>Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

1:03:57.840 --> 1:04:00.200
<v Speaker 1>or watch us live on YouTube.

1:04:01.160 --> 1:04:04.440
<v Speaker 4>We continue now with a special edition of Bloomberg BusinessWeek,

1:04:04.440 --> 1:04:06.640
<v Speaker 4>where we bring you highlights from our coverage of the

1:04:06.680 --> 1:04:09.120
<v Speaker 4>future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, California.

1:04:09.200 --> 1:04:11.360
<v Speaker 3>Now, before we wrap up our coverage, we wanted to

1:04:11.400 --> 1:04:13.920
<v Speaker 3>share a chat from the event on the Cross between

1:04:13.960 --> 1:04:18.320
<v Speaker 3>behavioral economics and psychology, taking an outsized role in recent

1:04:18.400 --> 1:04:20.560
<v Speaker 3>years on Wall Street and in investing.

1:04:20.920 --> 1:04:23.720
<v Speaker 4>On that we were joined by doctor Daniel Crosby, chief

1:04:23.760 --> 1:04:27.320
<v Speaker 4>behavioral officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. The firm, in its

1:04:27.320 --> 1:04:30.360
<v Speaker 4>own words, supports five point two trillion dollars in assets

1:04:30.440 --> 1:04:34.680
<v Speaker 4>under administration across twenty five thousand advisory firms in the US.

1:04:35.080 --> 1:04:37.280
<v Speaker 4>It also manages more than one hundred billion dollars in

1:04:37.280 --> 1:04:38.720
<v Speaker 4>wealth assets for advisors.

1:04:38.800 --> 1:04:42.360
<v Speaker 3>We should note doctor Crosby's first book, Personal Benchmark, Integrating

1:04:42.400 --> 1:04:46.440
<v Speaker 3>Behavioral Finance and Investment Management, was a New York Times bestseller.

1:04:46.960 --> 1:04:49.120
<v Speaker 4>What is a chief behavioral officer?

1:04:49.320 --> 1:04:52.120
<v Speaker 11>Yes, it's a great question. My mom would like to

1:04:52.160 --> 1:04:55.640
<v Speaker 11>know as well a chief behavioral office. So the role

1:04:55.720 --> 1:04:58.600
<v Speaker 11>of the advisors that we serve is more and more

1:04:58.640 --> 1:05:01.600
<v Speaker 11>about helping people avoid the very worst of human behavior.

1:05:01.680 --> 1:05:03.960
<v Speaker 11>And if you look at the research on how advisors

1:05:03.960 --> 1:05:07.120
<v Speaker 11>ad dollars and cents value to their clients' lives, a

1:05:07.200 --> 1:05:10.320
<v Speaker 11>meta analysis of this shows that they add about seven

1:05:10.360 --> 1:05:12.840
<v Speaker 11>times as much by keeping people out of their own

1:05:12.880 --> 1:05:15.600
<v Speaker 11>way as they do even something like asset management. So

1:05:15.640 --> 1:05:17.959
<v Speaker 11>it's an incredible value and I think in the age

1:05:17.960 --> 1:05:20.200
<v Speaker 11>of AI, it's just going to be an even bigger value.

1:05:20.320 --> 1:05:22.520
<v Speaker 3>So how do they read through the behavioral cues? Because

1:05:22.520 --> 1:05:24.600
<v Speaker 3>I'm just thinking, Daniel, that there are people who are

1:05:24.720 --> 1:05:27.200
<v Speaker 3>overly confident, like I know exactly what I'm doing, and

1:05:27.200 --> 1:05:29.480
<v Speaker 3>then there are people who are really really nervous, and

1:05:29.480 --> 1:05:30.960
<v Speaker 3>I'm just trying to figure out, how do you we

1:05:31.520 --> 1:05:33.280
<v Speaker 3>kind of read through all of those cues if you're

1:05:33.320 --> 1:05:34.320
<v Speaker 3>sitting down with a client.

1:05:34.520 --> 1:05:37.000
<v Speaker 11>Well, what's cool is now we can use technology to

1:05:37.000 --> 1:05:39.800
<v Speaker 11>do that and in a very short order two different ways.

1:05:39.800 --> 1:05:42.000
<v Speaker 11>We have a variety of assessments that we'll get at

1:05:42.000 --> 1:05:45.840
<v Speaker 11>someone's sort of financial personality, but also through what psychologists

1:05:45.880 --> 1:05:49.920
<v Speaker 11>call revealed preferences by looking at what they do. People

1:05:49.960 --> 1:05:53.440
<v Speaker 11>tend to be pretty poor descriptors of their own behavior.

1:05:53.480 --> 1:05:55.400
<v Speaker 11>We don't have to ask them what they're like. We

1:05:55.440 --> 1:05:57.400
<v Speaker 11>can look at how they act and we can infer

1:05:57.440 --> 1:05:58.280
<v Speaker 11>from their behavior.

1:05:58.560 --> 1:05:59.840
<v Speaker 4>That's one of the great things about working.

1:06:00.160 --> 1:06:02.400
<v Speaker 3>Give us an example, Oh, just how in my mind?

1:06:02.520 --> 1:06:05.720
<v Speaker 11>You know, instead of asking someone how how overconfident are you?

1:06:05.720 --> 1:06:09.400
<v Speaker 11>You look at things that that are descriptive of overconfidence,

1:06:09.480 --> 1:06:13.400
<v Speaker 11>over trading, you know, failure to use an advisor, jumping

1:06:13.480 --> 1:06:16.240
<v Speaker 11>in and out of positions, being skittish. Things like this

1:06:16.360 --> 1:06:20.560
<v Speaker 11>would be representative of a fear or overconfidence. So there

1:06:20.600 --> 1:06:24.200
<v Speaker 11>are trading behaviors that are emblematic of the different sorts

1:06:24.240 --> 1:06:26.560
<v Speaker 11>of things that doctor Thaylor studied.

1:06:26.720 --> 1:06:30.080
<v Speaker 4>Is it the right answer to everything? Just you nothing

1:06:30.480 --> 1:06:34.960
<v Speaker 4>like don't follow your well, you know, in the I'll

1:06:34.960 --> 1:06:37.640
<v Speaker 4>give you an example of a friend. He's was freaking

1:06:37.680 --> 1:06:40.760
<v Speaker 4>out during the tariff, you know, so called liberation Day,

1:06:41.400 --> 1:06:45.840
<v Speaker 4>and he he sold a bunch of equities and he's like,

1:06:45.960 --> 1:06:48.440
<v Speaker 4>this is everything is different. We're in a different world.

1:06:48.760 --> 1:06:51.120
<v Speaker 4>He's not an investment manager. He's in medicine. He is,

1:06:51.520 --> 1:06:53.080
<v Speaker 4>you know, he has an advisor, but he told his

1:06:53.120 --> 1:06:55.320
<v Speaker 4>advisor to sell. His advisor told him not to, but

1:06:55.360 --> 1:06:56.960
<v Speaker 4>he did it anyway. And he's convinced that this is

1:06:57.000 --> 1:06:59.200
<v Speaker 4>a different world that we're living in, pre and post tariffs.

1:06:59.280 --> 1:07:01.680
<v Speaker 11>Well, one of the tricky things is that you definitely

1:07:01.680 --> 1:07:04.360
<v Speaker 11>should do less than you think you should. And being

1:07:04.400 --> 1:07:07.200
<v Speaker 11>good at investing requires a different set of understanding and

1:07:07.240 --> 1:07:09.439
<v Speaker 11>a different set of skills than just about anything else

1:07:09.480 --> 1:07:12.360
<v Speaker 11>in life. If you want to get stronger, you lift

1:07:12.400 --> 1:07:14.080
<v Speaker 11>more weights. If you want to get a wiser you

1:07:14.120 --> 1:07:16.320
<v Speaker 11>read more books. If you want to make more money,

1:07:16.360 --> 1:07:18.760
<v Speaker 11>you tend to do less. And in fact, this has

1:07:18.800 --> 1:07:21.880
<v Speaker 11>been studied in nineteen different countries in every country where

1:07:21.920 --> 1:07:25.400
<v Speaker 11>it's ever been studied. The more people trade, the worse

1:07:25.520 --> 1:07:28.240
<v Speaker 11>they tend to do. That is a very consistent finding.

1:07:28.280 --> 1:07:31.400
<v Speaker 11>It's monotonic, it's step wise, right, The more you trade,

1:07:31.440 --> 1:07:34.000
<v Speaker 11>the worse you tend to do. So maybe not do nothing,

1:07:34.040 --> 1:07:36.280
<v Speaker 11>but definitely do less than you think you should.

1:07:36.360 --> 1:07:38.439
<v Speaker 3>So set it and forget it.

1:07:38.160 --> 1:07:38.680
<v Speaker 4>More or less.

1:07:38.680 --> 1:07:39.960
<v Speaker 11>I mean, you could do a lot worse than set

1:07:40.000 --> 1:07:40.560
<v Speaker 11>it and forget it.

1:07:40.640 --> 1:07:42.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So how do you do something like in you

1:07:42.520 --> 1:07:44.360
<v Speaker 3>come to an event like this, You go to a

1:07:44.360 --> 1:07:46.760
<v Speaker 3>lot of other financial conferences. You go to milk in

1:07:46.840 --> 1:07:49.520
<v Speaker 3>on the West Coast in the spring, and everybody's talking

1:07:49.520 --> 1:07:51.840
<v Speaker 3>about private markets, and so you're like, oh my gosh,

1:07:51.960 --> 1:07:53.960
<v Speaker 3>maybe I need to be in this more aggressively. Like

1:07:54.000 --> 1:07:57.120
<v Speaker 3>how do you like kind of weave that into maybe

1:07:57.520 --> 1:07:59.880
<v Speaker 3>your strategy or how do you or should you ignore it?

1:08:00.160 --> 1:08:02.600
<v Speaker 3>How do you I don't know you deal with new

1:08:02.640 --> 1:08:05.120
<v Speaker 3>trends AI the exuberants that we're seeing over that.

1:08:05.880 --> 1:08:06.640
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, yeah, yeah.

1:08:06.680 --> 1:08:09.120
<v Speaker 11>One of the things is that that we understand is

1:08:09.160 --> 1:08:11.480
<v Speaker 11>that the best portfolio for you is gonna look a

1:08:11.520 --> 1:08:13.600
<v Speaker 11>little different than it is for me. So something like

1:08:13.720 --> 1:08:17.680
<v Speaker 11>AI sucks, Something like something like private markets may have

1:08:17.760 --> 1:08:21.200
<v Speaker 11>a place depending on who you are and what you value.

1:08:21.360 --> 1:08:25.360
<v Speaker 11>I'm also a big proponent of, you know, sinning a little, right,

1:08:25.400 --> 1:08:28.760
<v Speaker 11>there's something like I'll encourage people sinning a little, like,

1:08:28.840 --> 1:08:32.360
<v Speaker 11>you know, going like having a three to five percent

1:08:32.400 --> 1:08:34.880
<v Speaker 11>of your wealth and sort of a fun account where

1:08:34.880 --> 1:08:37.400
<v Speaker 11>you get to take big risks because you like being

1:08:37.960 --> 1:08:38.920
<v Speaker 11>involved in markets.

1:08:39.000 --> 1:08:41.680
<v Speaker 4>Eric Falcunas, our colleague of Bloomberg Intelligence, calls this the

1:08:41.720 --> 1:08:44.439
<v Speaker 4>hot sauce. Yeah, where you know people throw something into

1:08:44.600 --> 1:08:45.840
<v Speaker 4>arc or crypto or something.

1:08:45.960 --> 1:08:48.040
<v Speaker 11>Sure, right, it's a it's a cheap and it sort

1:08:48.040 --> 1:08:49.000
<v Speaker 11>of scratches that itch.

1:08:49.000 --> 1:08:50.840
<v Speaker 4>It's like, okay, you can, you can mess around with

1:08:50.920 --> 1:08:52.880
<v Speaker 4>that money, just don't touch everything else.

1:08:53.040 --> 1:08:54.040
<v Speaker 7>That's exactly right.

1:08:54.080 --> 1:08:57.360
<v Speaker 11>So it's an imperfect decision that keeps you from a

1:08:57.479 --> 1:09:01.120
<v Speaker 11>much larger, larger, sort of life altering decision, and I'm

1:09:01.120 --> 1:09:02.200
<v Speaker 11>happy with that trade off.

1:09:02.960 --> 1:09:05.280
<v Speaker 3>I don't know a piece of advice to investors then,

1:09:05.439 --> 1:09:10.960
<v Speaker 3>in thinking about psychology and behavioral economics or behavioral investment thinking.

1:09:10.960 --> 1:09:13.000
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, if you want to change your behavior. There's really

1:09:13.040 --> 1:09:15.120
<v Speaker 11>three things you need. Three e's right. The first is

1:09:15.160 --> 1:09:17.000
<v Speaker 11>the right education. You need to know a little bit

1:09:17.000 --> 1:09:18.880
<v Speaker 11>about markets. They need to listen to you, all right.

1:09:18.920 --> 1:09:22.240
<v Speaker 11>The next is an environment. The environment is very predictive

1:09:22.320 --> 1:09:25.400
<v Speaker 11>of how you do. Are you getting the right inputs right?

1:09:25.439 --> 1:09:27.519
<v Speaker 11>Are you listening to the right sources? Are you listening

1:09:27.520 --> 1:09:30.439
<v Speaker 11>to the right voices? And the last one's encouragement. People

1:09:30.439 --> 1:09:32.600
<v Speaker 11>who work with a professional do a lot better than

1:09:32.640 --> 1:09:35.400
<v Speaker 11>people who don't, and it's largely because they have that

1:09:35.439 --> 1:09:36.320
<v Speaker 11>person in their corner.

1:09:36.439 --> 1:09:39.800
<v Speaker 3>And this applies whether it's a global pandemic and a

1:09:39.840 --> 1:09:43.000
<v Speaker 3>shutdown of the economy, whether it's the global financial crisis,

1:09:43.120 --> 1:09:47.000
<v Speaker 3>or a president that some say is errootic and policies

1:09:47.000 --> 1:09:47.800
<v Speaker 3>can change a lot.

1:09:48.080 --> 1:09:49.400
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, I think that's right.

1:09:49.439 --> 1:09:52.360
<v Speaker 11>The flavor of the disruption will vary from moment to moment,

1:09:52.400 --> 1:09:55.000
<v Speaker 11>but the fundamentals of what we should do beneath that

1:09:55.160 --> 1:09:55.840
<v Speaker 11>very rarely do.

1:09:56.080 --> 1:09:58.240
<v Speaker 3>Well come back. We would love to continue this conversation.

1:09:58.280 --> 1:10:01.560
<v Speaker 3>This is fun lot of Fune Rosby. He's chief behavioral

1:10:01.600 --> 1:10:03.600
<v Speaker 3>Officer to Ryan Advisor Solutions.

1:10:04.040 --> 1:10:07.280
<v Speaker 4>Joining us here at future Proof future Proof Bloomberg BusinessWeek

1:10:07.320 --> 1:10:10.240
<v Speaker 4>Live at Futureproof in Huntington Beach. Today's show is sponsored

1:10:10.280 --> 1:10:13.280
<v Speaker 4>by van Ak Marking at seventieth anniversary this year, with

1:10:13.360 --> 1:10:17.160
<v Speaker 4>a legacy defined by forward thinking strategies, resilience through market cycles,

1:10:17.479 --> 1:10:19.479
<v Speaker 4>and an enduring commitment to clients.

1:10:19.560 --> 1:10:22.080
<v Speaker 3>Jennifer Grancia was back with US Global head of ETFs

1:10:22.120 --> 1:10:24.479
<v Speaker 3>over at TCW. They've got more than two hundred billion

1:10:24.760 --> 1:10:27.600
<v Speaker 3>across investment solutions as as of the mid of this

1:10:27.680 --> 1:10:31.840
<v Speaker 3>year midpoint ETF platforms have more than four billion a

1:10:31.880 --> 1:10:34.080
<v Speaker 3>lot under management. They see a lot of flows. We

1:10:34.120 --> 1:10:37.040
<v Speaker 3>want to remind everybody to Jennifer, the former CEO of

1:10:37.080 --> 1:10:40.320
<v Speaker 3>the impact investment from Engine Number one, which took on exceon,

1:10:40.560 --> 1:10:42.840
<v Speaker 3>You're going to be iconic forever. This is going to

1:10:42.920 --> 1:10:46.640
<v Speaker 3>go with you wherever you go, because it was really significant.

1:10:47.680 --> 1:10:49.920
<v Speaker 4>I think also, I think also you joined us at

1:10:49.960 --> 1:10:52.519
<v Speaker 4>Milkin during that time. Yeah, you guys were in the

1:10:52.560 --> 1:10:55.040
<v Speaker 4>midst of that, and that's where sort of like I

1:10:55.120 --> 1:10:57.280
<v Speaker 4>still know you from, but I think people still know

1:10:57.320 --> 1:10:57.680
<v Speaker 4>you from that.

1:10:57.760 --> 1:11:00.160
<v Speaker 18>As Carol mentioned, Yeah, I mean Engine number one as

1:11:00.200 --> 1:11:02.600
<v Speaker 18>a moment in time where I think we had just

1:11:02.720 --> 1:11:05.599
<v Speaker 18>started to think about energy transition and at a very

1:11:05.640 --> 1:11:08.400
<v Speaker 18>big level. It's not just green, it's brown, and then

1:11:08.479 --> 1:11:11.679
<v Speaker 18>it's going to require so much to move the world

1:11:11.760 --> 1:11:15.160
<v Speaker 18>towards better sources of energy, electrification, all the power we

1:11:15.200 --> 1:11:18.200
<v Speaker 18>need for restoring in the US. So yeah, that was

1:11:18.400 --> 1:11:20.040
<v Speaker 18>it was a great moment in time, and then we

1:11:20.160 --> 1:11:22.000
<v Speaker 18>folded in a lot of the work we had done

1:11:22.040 --> 1:11:23.480
<v Speaker 18>there into TCW.

1:11:23.640 --> 1:11:25.600
<v Speaker 3>We'll talk about what you are doing because energy is

1:11:25.600 --> 1:11:28.160
<v Speaker 3>a big theme in terms of investing here for you

1:11:28.240 --> 1:11:29.519
<v Speaker 3>guys for sure.

1:11:29.640 --> 1:11:32.479
<v Speaker 18>So if you think about the world today as much

1:11:32.479 --> 1:11:35.160
<v Speaker 18>as it's molatile and we're never sure exactly what's going

1:11:35.240 --> 1:11:37.160
<v Speaker 18>to happen or how things are going to play out,

1:11:37.400 --> 1:11:39.839
<v Speaker 18>if you think about TCW, we started as an equity

1:11:39.880 --> 1:11:42.759
<v Speaker 18>firm and then we've got a great public private credit business,

1:11:42.760 --> 1:11:44.760
<v Speaker 18>and so on the equity side, a lot of what

1:11:44.800 --> 1:11:49.280
<v Speaker 18>we do is fundamental concentrated portfolios that help you diversify

1:11:49.720 --> 1:11:52.400
<v Speaker 18>from the index fund and the direct indexing you have

1:11:52.439 --> 1:11:55.479
<v Speaker 18>at the core. Because the market is broadening and we

1:11:55.560 --> 1:11:59.200
<v Speaker 18>have a huge opportunity as investors to actually take advantage

1:11:59.200 --> 1:12:01.840
<v Speaker 18>of how do you profit from the fact that we're

1:12:01.880 --> 1:12:04.240
<v Speaker 18>seeing different sources of energy and we have a huge

1:12:04.280 --> 1:12:07.639
<v Speaker 18>demand for energy for AI and data centers, but also

1:12:07.680 --> 1:12:09.320
<v Speaker 18>for the restoring of manufacturing.

1:12:09.640 --> 1:12:12.960
<v Speaker 4>How do you do that in an environment where the administration,

1:12:13.240 --> 1:12:15.439
<v Speaker 4>depending on who's in the White House, changes their view

1:12:15.479 --> 1:12:17.760
<v Speaker 4>on the future of energy, like does a one ad.

1:12:17.840 --> 1:12:20.800
<v Speaker 4>I mean you have the president wanting to actually doing it,

1:12:20.880 --> 1:12:23.920
<v Speaker 4>trying to cancel offshore wind projects and really anything that

1:12:24.040 --> 1:12:27.479
<v Speaker 4>isn't oil. It seems like he's not interested in safer nuclear.

1:12:27.600 --> 1:12:30.200
<v Speaker 4>But that's a bigger time arise in time.

1:12:30.400 --> 1:12:31.800
<v Speaker 18>Yeah, but that's how we think about it. So from

1:12:31.800 --> 1:12:34.840
<v Speaker 18>a TCW perspective, we've been investing in the energy and

1:12:34.880 --> 1:12:39.280
<v Speaker 18>power transition. We do that through the ETF Powered pr PWRD.

1:12:39.439 --> 1:12:41.519
<v Speaker 18>Pardon me, but when we think about that, that's a

1:12:41.760 --> 1:12:45.360
<v Speaker 18>very long trend. So that's over decades and decades, and

1:12:45.360 --> 1:12:47.400
<v Speaker 18>so the way we think about it as we as

1:12:47.520 --> 1:12:49.679
<v Speaker 18>managers want to invest for you, so that we're paying

1:12:49.720 --> 1:12:53.040
<v Speaker 18>attention to one administration to the other and what happens,

1:12:53.040 --> 1:12:55.280
<v Speaker 18>and there will be some changes. But if you think

1:12:55.320 --> 1:12:58.920
<v Speaker 18>about the changes in the traditional brown so that they

1:12:58.920 --> 1:13:01.720
<v Speaker 18>can electrify and more productive in a market like the

1:13:01.720 --> 1:13:05.360
<v Speaker 18>Permian on oil, that's really important. Nuclear is incredibly important.

1:13:05.400 --> 1:13:09.000
<v Speaker 18>And then what Trump said on actually supporting more nuclear, Yeah,

1:13:09.000 --> 1:13:12.759
<v Speaker 18>it's a long run game. But that's great intermittent power.

1:13:12.880 --> 1:13:14.559
<v Speaker 18>So we like to think about it very broadly, and

1:13:14.600 --> 1:13:15.960
<v Speaker 18>it transcends administrations.

1:13:16.040 --> 1:13:18.920
<v Speaker 4>But does it mean you ignore wind and solar that could.

1:13:18.760 --> 1:13:20.800
<v Speaker 18>Be part of our portfolio as well. We're looking at

1:13:20.840 --> 1:13:23.400
<v Speaker 18>things that from a very long term perspective will make sense.

1:13:23.439 --> 1:13:25.200
<v Speaker 4>And you think, even though Wind is under so much

1:13:25.200 --> 1:13:28.720
<v Speaker 4>pressure right now, in a different administration, it could come back.

1:13:28.800 --> 1:13:30.080
<v Speaker 9>It will be part of the solution.

1:13:30.320 --> 1:13:32.479
<v Speaker 18>It's not the lead place to make money in the

1:13:32.479 --> 1:13:34.840
<v Speaker 18>next couple of years. And we're active managers, so we

1:13:34.840 --> 1:13:36.920
<v Speaker 18>can take that into account in terms of the way

1:13:36.960 --> 1:13:38.000
<v Speaker 18>we manage the portfolio.

1:13:38.160 --> 1:13:40.680
<v Speaker 3>Where is money going across your platforms, where are the

1:13:40.680 --> 1:13:42.880
<v Speaker 3>flows going in, where the flow's coming out?

1:13:43.240 --> 1:13:45.600
<v Speaker 18>We would see if I answer it maybe on an

1:13:45.640 --> 1:13:47.880
<v Speaker 18>industry question, and then I can talk about to PLACW.

1:13:48.640 --> 1:13:52.120
<v Speaker 18>We see active equity is tough, so in active equity

1:13:52.160 --> 1:13:55.240
<v Speaker 18>investments are very selective. So what we're doing in active

1:13:55.240 --> 1:14:00.879
<v Speaker 18>equity products like powered or AIFD for AI, if they're selective,

1:14:00.880 --> 1:14:04.280
<v Speaker 18>they're meant to be complementing to big index holdings. And

1:14:04.360 --> 1:14:06.680
<v Speaker 18>on fixed income, like a lot of money continues to

1:14:06.720 --> 1:14:09.759
<v Speaker 18>come into fixed income and continues to come into active

1:14:09.960 --> 1:14:12.760
<v Speaker 18>fixed income or also big in private credit, not in

1:14:12.800 --> 1:14:15.640
<v Speaker 18>the ETF space and products that are appropriate there, but

1:14:15.760 --> 1:14:18.280
<v Speaker 18>both if fixed income and private credit are probably the

1:14:18.280 --> 1:14:20.120
<v Speaker 18>places we see the most money coming in.

1:14:20.360 --> 1:14:24.960
<v Speaker 3>Really not surprising. It feels like everything is private credit.

1:14:25.680 --> 1:14:26.600
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I don't like.

1:14:26.680 --> 1:14:29.120
<v Speaker 18>Ketty does it does when on the other hand, it's early.

1:14:29.240 --> 1:14:31.880
<v Speaker 18>So if you think about if you think about the portfolio,

1:14:31.960 --> 1:14:34.360
<v Speaker 18>and if you think about it, biggest institutions in the world,

1:14:34.800 --> 1:14:37.280
<v Speaker 18>they're invested in some kinds of private credit, but they're

1:14:37.320 --> 1:14:41.240
<v Speaker 18>looking to get into private ABF because it's diversifying. But

1:14:41.320 --> 1:14:44.200
<v Speaker 18>in wealth portfolios, if you think about the average investor

1:14:44.400 --> 1:14:48.160
<v Speaker 18>or registered investment advisors, they're looking at how to take

1:14:48.200 --> 1:14:52.639
<v Speaker 18>advantage of returns that can be like our core plus

1:14:52.640 --> 1:14:56.040
<v Speaker 18>income ETF flexer. You know that's returning almost seven percent

1:14:56.280 --> 1:14:59.880
<v Speaker 18>with over five percent annual yield. That's very attractive. When

1:15:00.120 --> 1:15:03.840
<v Speaker 18>you move into safe, controlled, careful private credit, you're still

1:15:03.880 --> 1:15:07.320
<v Speaker 18>picking up multiple percentage points a year. So people should

1:15:07.360 --> 1:15:09.560
<v Speaker 18>do it carefully. Yeah, it's a big opportunity.

1:15:09.840 --> 1:15:12.240
<v Speaker 4>Do you see that opportunity continuing to grow in a

1:15:12.320 --> 1:15:13.280
<v Speaker 4>weakening environment?

1:15:13.760 --> 1:15:14.080
<v Speaker 7>We do.

1:15:14.160 --> 1:15:16.240
<v Speaker 18>It's if again, if you go out and you survey.

1:15:16.360 --> 1:15:19.360
<v Speaker 18>There's a McKinsey report that just came out surveying institutions

1:15:19.400 --> 1:15:22.439
<v Speaker 18>and wealth and private credit by far is the place

1:15:22.479 --> 1:15:25.680
<v Speaker 18>that people are most interested in most increasing allocations in.

1:15:26.400 --> 1:15:28.720
<v Speaker 3>What confidence do you have that we have the right

1:15:28.760 --> 1:15:31.960
<v Speaker 3>regulatory oversight on this in a world where private credit

1:15:32.000 --> 1:15:35.320
<v Speaker 3>still there is a lack of transparency and people don't

1:15:35.720 --> 1:15:39.680
<v Speaker 3>maybe not all investors understand that it's not liquid like

1:15:39.720 --> 1:15:40.920
<v Speaker 3>a lot of other investments.

1:15:41.479 --> 1:15:44.719
<v Speaker 18>It's the right question, which is from a responsibility perspective

1:15:44.720 --> 1:15:47.679
<v Speaker 18>as asset managers or for wealth managers, we should always

1:15:47.720 --> 1:15:50.200
<v Speaker 18>be in a dialogue with clients on do they understand

1:15:50.200 --> 1:15:53.479
<v Speaker 18>the liquids when you do a semi liquid product. For example,

1:15:53.520 --> 1:15:55.840
<v Speaker 18>for us, we have things that have many many your

1:15:55.880 --> 1:15:58.479
<v Speaker 18>five plus year draw downs. That's not a liquid product.

1:15:58.520 --> 1:16:00.639
<v Speaker 18>We wouldn't tell clients that that's on the quid product.

1:16:00.920 --> 1:16:03.439
<v Speaker 18>In the asset back finance space, we have an interval fund,

1:16:03.479 --> 1:16:07.040
<v Speaker 18>but the loans there are getting kind of turning over

1:16:07.080 --> 1:16:09.200
<v Speaker 18>within two to four years, so there's a little bit

1:16:09.240 --> 1:16:12.639
<v Speaker 18>more liquidity there. So I think we'll watch the regulatory space,

1:16:12.720 --> 1:16:16.639
<v Speaker 18>but investor education and responsibility by the managers it's critical.

1:16:16.720 --> 1:16:18.479
<v Speaker 3>So when it comes to private credit, you're looking for

1:16:18.520 --> 1:16:20.479
<v Speaker 3>things where it is two to four years that they're

1:16:20.520 --> 1:16:22.960
<v Speaker 3>turning over a little bit more liquid. That's a little

1:16:22.960 --> 1:16:23.599
<v Speaker 3>bit more liquid.

1:16:23.600 --> 1:16:25.559
<v Speaker 18>And so if you think about private credit in the

1:16:25.640 --> 1:16:29.080
<v Speaker 18>private securitized or asset back finance space, the loans you're

1:16:29.120 --> 1:16:31.360
<v Speaker 18>self advertising in two to four years, and that's a

1:16:31.400 --> 1:16:33.599
<v Speaker 18>space we think in interval fund makes sense we manage

1:16:33.600 --> 1:16:36.679
<v Speaker 18>an interval fund. There there are other places where it's

1:16:36.760 --> 1:16:38.559
<v Speaker 18>just not that liquid, and that should be a private

1:16:38.600 --> 1:16:39.280
<v Speaker 18>market product.

1:16:39.800 --> 1:16:43.479
<v Speaker 4>Still a lot of interest in AI and the fund that.

1:16:43.479 --> 1:16:46.120
<v Speaker 18>Tracks that a huge amount of interest in AI, and

1:16:46.439 --> 1:16:50.080
<v Speaker 18>I think everybody's interested in one what's happening with AI,

1:16:50.240 --> 1:16:53.080
<v Speaker 18>who wins, what happens, but people are also looking at

1:16:53.080 --> 1:16:55.479
<v Speaker 18>how to invest in it. So at TCW, we manage

1:16:55.520 --> 1:17:00.680
<v Speaker 18>an ETFAIFD which is investing very broadly in AI, and

1:17:00.800 --> 1:17:01.800
<v Speaker 18>that's an opportunity to.

1:17:01.800 --> 1:17:02.960
<v Speaker 9>Take advantage of.

1:17:03.040 --> 1:17:05.839
<v Speaker 18>Yes, it holds Navidia, but it also holds a broadcom

1:17:05.880 --> 1:17:08.680
<v Speaker 18>and other companies that are benefiting and early winners in

1:17:08.720 --> 1:17:09.200
<v Speaker 18>the trade.

1:17:09.240 --> 1:17:11.200
<v Speaker 3>When you come to an event like this, I mean,

1:17:11.280 --> 1:17:13.000
<v Speaker 3>is there a narrative you're picking up on that might

1:17:13.040 --> 1:17:15.919
<v Speaker 3>be surprising? I'm just curious. Just got about thirty seconds here.

1:17:15.920 --> 1:17:19.880
<v Speaker 18>I think from this conference, which is full of wealth advisors,

1:17:19.920 --> 1:17:22.760
<v Speaker 18>they are trying to figure out how does artificial intelligence

1:17:22.760 --> 1:17:25.599
<v Speaker 18>affect their business, how do they get smarter about it,

1:17:26.240 --> 1:17:29.240
<v Speaker 18>and how can they adopt new outsourcing and new technology

1:17:29.280 --> 1:17:32.240
<v Speaker 18>so that they can spend more time actually serving their clients.

1:17:32.520 --> 1:17:36.160
<v Speaker 4>Our thanks to Jennifer Grancio, Global head of BTFS at TCW.

1:17:36.240 --> 1:17:38.240
<v Speaker 3>And that wraps up the weekend edition of Bloomberg Business

1:17:38.240 --> 1:17:40.760
<v Speaker 3>Week from Bloomberg Radio at the future Proof Festival in

1:17:40.840 --> 1:17:44.160
<v Speaker 3>Huntington Beach, California this past week. You can catch all

1:17:44.280 --> 1:17:46.840
<v Speaker 3>the conversations from the event on the Bloomberg and at

1:17:46.840 --> 1:17:49.120
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg dot com. Thank you so much for joining us.

1:17:49.479 --> 1:17:51.840
<v Speaker 3>I'm Tim Stenebet and I'm Carol Masser. Have a good

1:17:51.840 --> 1:17:53.000
<v Speaker 3>and safe weekend everyone.

1:17:54.080 --> 1:17:59.440
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

1:17:59.560 --> 1:18:02.800
<v Speaker 2>and any where else you get your podcasts. Listen live

1:18:02.880 --> 1:18:06.600
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1:18:06.640 --> 1:18:10.520
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