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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pot all right,

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Speaker 1: here we go, fifteen funny, twenty five, thirty thirty five,

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Speaker 1: forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the kick as Black look call it football, Laura

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Speaker 2: stunned us good Oh my goodness, he stumbled and football

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Speaker 2: the lateral turn a canter on the epside, don't you

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Speaker 2: The lad.

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Speaker 3: Came off the veil.

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Speaker 4: Of the Knights go.

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Speaker 1: It's not the side of the dog in the fight, it's.

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Speaker 2: The size of the fight in the doll.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast is the

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Speaker 5: group of five deep dive And if you're hearing that music,

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Speaker 5: that means college football season is here. The bands are playing,

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Speaker 5: the bets are flying. You've made it all the way

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Speaker 5: through the off season. We laid out lots of breadcrumbs

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Speaker 5: for you with conference previews for all ten FBS conferences.

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Speaker 5: You can go back through the podcast feed and listen

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Speaker 5: to those at your leisure. And additionally, we put so

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Speaker 5: much on YouTube. Please subscribe on YouTube. See all of

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Speaker 5: our content there, our shorts, our full episode, subscribe comment

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Speaker 5: all of it helps. And speaking of commenting, if you

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Speaker 5: can go ahead and comment on our podcast feed, we'll

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Speaker 5: go ahead and give out some merch this year. Have

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Speaker 5: some giveaways throughout So five stars, please subscribe, unsubscribe, Tell

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Speaker 5: a friend, tell an enemy. You know how we do

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Speaker 5: here at BBOC. All right, Ianella, we've made it college

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Speaker 5: football season this year. We got real bets, real bullets flying.

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Speaker 5: How are you feeling with just hours to go before kickoff?

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Speaker 4: I feel phenomenal. I'm gonna say it one time and

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Speaker 4: we're not gonna I don't want to hear this word

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Speaker 4: again for five months. We are officially putting an embargo

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Speaker 4: on the word realignment. I don't want to hear that

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Speaker 4: word again for five months. Let's play some football.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I am absolutely pumped. G five Lands. You know,

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Speaker 5: wasn't unscathed. The AAC ends up being an organ donor

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Speaker 5: for the Big Twelve. Some major programs moving there, sliding

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Speaker 5: in some conference essay teams, but a lot of our

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Speaker 5: pride and enjoy the sun Belt, the mac Moundwest pretty

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Speaker 5: much untouched. You know, there was a will they won't they,

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Speaker 5: Texas two step situation with San Diego State, all of that.

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Speaker 5: I agree, let's put it on the sideline. Let's get

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Speaker 5: to some picks. But before we do so, let's get

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Speaker 5: into who are our guys? This year, when this podcast

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Speaker 5: was launched, the group of five deep dive under the

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Speaker 5: Big Bets on campus banner. We were a Bailey Zappi

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Speaker 5: first on board conductor situation. We were waving people in

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Speaker 5: and he hit, you know, cult hero status. So we're

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Speaker 5: hoping this year to do the same. Let's go with

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Speaker 5: three guys each. Who is your first for quote unquote

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Speaker 5: your guy from G five Land.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, like you said, I think that's something that this

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Speaker 4: podcast has been very good at planning our flag Zappi.

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Speaker 4: A lot of them moved on West. We lost our

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Speaker 4: baby boy, Jay Cayner. We lost Holan Aylers after. I

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Speaker 4: mean he's not really a baby boy, he's like forty.

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Speaker 4: But we got to get some new guys. So we

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Speaker 4: want to get get our listeners knowing here's the guys

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Speaker 4: we're playing our flags, our new kids. I'm starting off

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Speaker 4: prest Stone. I've talked about SMU all offseason. It is

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Speaker 4: officially the Stone Age in Dallas. I'm riding with prest

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Speaker 4: Stone all year. In my SMME future.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna match your quarterback with another one. We're going

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Speaker 5: to go Diego Pavia, New Mexico. State. It's been a

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Speaker 5: while since New Mexico State has been playable from a

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Speaker 5: gambling perspective. They were red hot down the stretch last year.

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Speaker 5: I know they played a lot of ten cans. They

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Speaker 5: beat Valpo to get Bowl eligible. I don't care. They

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Speaker 5: went to the Quickling Bowl and he was the MVP

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Speaker 5: of that game. He scores thirteen total touchdowns in their

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Speaker 5: last three games. He's in New Mexico, legend in the state.

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Speaker 5: He's from Albuquerque. He went junior college there in New Mexico,

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Speaker 5: won a JUCO national title like Cam Newton and now

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Speaker 5: here he is resurrecting this dead program with Jerry Kill

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Speaker 5: as his coach. I love the storyline and Tim Beck.

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Speaker 5: Not that Tim Beck from Coastal Carolina. Another Tim Beck,

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Speaker 5: who is a legend at the D two level is

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Speaker 5: his offensive coordinator Guru. He really got him going down

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Speaker 5: the stretch. And I love what the Aggies have this year,

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Speaker 5: particularly against the slate of teams that they should be

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Speaker 5: winning six or seven games like this late maybe is

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Speaker 5: the easiest in all of FBS football. We'll get to

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Speaker 5: them for a week zero picks, But diego Pavia. We

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Speaker 5: love you. This Apavia podcast, I can't wait to see

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Speaker 5: him ball out on Saturday against UMAs. All right, number two,

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Speaker 5: who you got?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, this is a bit of a you know, he

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Speaker 4: may not even be the true starter. I don't care.

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Speaker 4: He should be Burt Manuel, central Michigan quarterback. I've said

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Speaker 4: it before. I'm a simple man. I see one thing.

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Speaker 4: I make a good first impression. When he came in

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Speaker 4: against Buffalo and ran for three touchdowns in the second half,

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Speaker 4: I decided he's the next coming of Michael Vick, maybe

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Speaker 4: even Jesus Christ. Who's to say? Can he throw the ball?

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure, but in the final games final three

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Speaker 4: games of last season, he had four hundred and sixty

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Speaker 4: six yards and seven touchdowns rushing. He is an absolute

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Speaker 4: human electric factory. He can legitimately score every time he

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Speaker 4: touches the ball and he takes a snap, So pretty

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Speaker 4: good odds there.

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Speaker 5: Fire up chips, so Ianello and I put together our

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Speaker 5: G five All American Team. You can catch that online

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Speaker 5: at actionnetwork dot com or on our award winning app.

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Speaker 5: And I'm gonna go ahead and grab our all purpose

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Speaker 5: player on the first team, and that's Frank Gore Junior

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Speaker 5: from Southern miss The guy was phenomenal. Last year, he

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Speaker 5: did everything for the Eagles, rushing, receiving, passing. He racked

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Speaker 5: up eighteen hundred total yards, thirteen total tds. He had

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Speaker 5: eight games of twenty plus touches and the end of

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Speaker 5: the year. I mean, I just talked about Pavia being

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Speaker 5: on a heater like he put him to shame. Last

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Speaker 5: two games, five hundred and twenty eight rushing yards and

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Speaker 5: three tds, including that bowl game romp over Rice. Southern

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Speaker 5: Miss returns seventy five percent of their offensive line starts.

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Speaker 5: He's going to roll again. They are one of my

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Speaker 5: favorite sleepers to win a conference in all of college football.

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Speaker 5: I think they're going to be a live dog in

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Speaker 5: the Sunbelt West, and I wouldn't be shocked to see

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Speaker 5: them in the SBC title game. So I'm going with

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Speaker 5: Frank Gord Juniors my second pick. All right, wrap it

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Speaker 5: up here, Ianello.

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Speaker 4: Also, you've got to mention Frank Gore Junior is so elusive.

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Speaker 4: He literally stiffed he armed his aunt a mid interview.

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Speaker 4: That's how hard he is to bring down. I'm gonna

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Speaker 4: go to the defensive side of the ball. It's been

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Speaker 4: a lot of offensive talk. Another guy from our G

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Speaker 4: five All American Team. You know I got a rep

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Speaker 4: Connecticut every chance I get. Jackson Mitchell from Yukon might

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Speaker 4: be the best linebacker in the G five. He was

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Speaker 4: on our All American team. I believe he was our

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Speaker 4: defensive player of the year going into the year for

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Speaker 4: the G five. One hundred and forty tackles last year,

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Speaker 4: fourth in the country. Did everything for Yukon nine and

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Speaker 4: a half tackles for loss, four and a half sacks.

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Speaker 4: He's a beast, He's a freak. He's all over the field.

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Speaker 4: Probably could have gone pro. Came back because just the

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Speaker 4: opportunity to live in Connecticut for one more year was

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Speaker 4: too good to pass up. Jackson Mitchell, Go Huskies.

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Speaker 5: I gotta finish with a quarterback who's not yet been

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Speaker 5: named the starter, but the upside is incredible. Here Malie

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Speaker 5: Hornsby at Texas State, Colin Wilson's probably moving his chair

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Speaker 5: a little bit closer to his speaker because he's a

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Speaker 5: former Arkansas quarterback. Four star out of high school, led

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Speaker 5: a five to a program in high school to the

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Speaker 5: Texas State championship game. Unbelievable fast ten point seven eight

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Speaker 5: and one hundred meter dash, which for those of you

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Speaker 5: not in the track and field world, anywhere between ten

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Speaker 5: to five and ten eight. That's elite speed. And now

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Speaker 5: he's plugged into GJ. Kinney's offense. That made Lindsay Scott Junior,

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Speaker 5: another big program transfer who went down to the FCS level,

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Speaker 5: a superstar last year. He won the Walter Payton Award.

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Speaker 5: Seventy one total touchdowns at the FCS level last season

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Speaker 5: for Scott Junior, and the receiving core in San Marcos

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Speaker 5: is ready to go. Ashton, Hawkins, bo corrallies Joey Hobert,

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Speaker 5: who is the son of Billy Joe Hobert, the quarterback

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Speaker 5: of the ninety one Washington Husky's, one of the greatest

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Speaker 5: college football teams of all time. This receiving court and

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Speaker 5: Hornsby can make magic happen if their offensive line can

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Speaker 5: come together. Lots of new pieces there a big transfer

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Speaker 5: portal team. But if he gets the job, I could

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Speaker 5: see him blowing up by. You know, let's call it

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Speaker 5: mid October, once they get into Sun Belt play and

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Speaker 5: really get to carve up some of those weaker defenses.

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Speaker 5: Love Hornsby.

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Speaker 4: I could be making this up. I do think he

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Speaker 4: was named the starter.

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Speaker 5: I've been searching, like the last couple of days. I

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Speaker 5: know that Kenney was basically saying that they had both

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Speaker 5: earned the right to start. So I'm hoping you're right.

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Speaker 5: I hope you're a newsbreaker here. Move over, Brett McMurphy.

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Speaker 5: We got our own sources in Mike Ianella. If Hornsby's

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Speaker 5: the guy, he's absolutely my guy for this season. Speaking

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Speaker 5: of this college football season, it's almost here, and I

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Speaker 5: have some old habits that will never die, like betting

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Speaker 5: every single week, zero game. But I want to tell

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Speaker 5: you about a new habit that I'm getting into, which

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Speaker 5: is Caldera Lab skin regiment. It's simple and just takes

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Speaker 5: one minute in the morning and one minute a night.

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Speaker 5: You're already in the habit of brushing your teeth, so

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Speaker 5: why not add another habit on top of that and

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Speaker 5: take care of your skin move it up a notch

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Speaker 5: West Coast football before it is rest and peace there

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Speaker 5: on the West Coast PAC twelve after dark. So you

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Speaker 5: want to make sure that you're looking your best on

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Speaker 3: Before we go any further. As a reminder, Big Bets

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Speaker 6: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, at Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Misissippi, Nevada,

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Speaker 6: New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington,

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Speaker 5: All right, back to the show here. This is our

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Speaker 5: second little preseason before we get to week zero segments,

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Speaker 5: and it's us drafting our group of five teams to

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Speaker 5: make the New Year's sixth Bowl game. We did this

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Speaker 5: last year, Ianello, and it was pretty simple. We were saying,

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Speaker 5: you got five teams, I got five teams. If you win,

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Speaker 5: I will buy you a bowl pack with you know,

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Speaker 5: a hat, a shirt, a quarter zip, all the official swag,

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Speaker 5: the gear for your team that makes it. And if

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Speaker 5: by some random chance one of our ten teams doesn't win,

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Speaker 5: we'll just you know, throw it to Mitchell. He doesn't

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Speaker 5: have to have skin in the game. Well, Tulane went

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Speaker 5: from what was it three and nine to the Connon

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Speaker 5: Bowl beating the Heisman Trophy winner, So Mitch is his

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Speaker 5: drip is looking good. He's got the two lane swag,

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Speaker 5: the quarter zip this year. I'm hoping that we don't

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Speaker 5: run that back because now we have two producers, David

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Speaker 5: Payne at Matt Mitchell. So it's starting to get pricey

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Speaker 5: for us. So hopefully we don't whiff on this one.

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Speaker 5: Why don't you get us started with your pick from

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Speaker 5: the G five to go to a New Year six

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Speaker 5: Bowl game.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, I've been I've been riding the Ponies

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Speaker 4: all off season. I'm not stopping now give me smu

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Speaker 4: Stone age. I'm riding. I'm right, I'm riding the Ponies

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Speaker 4: all the way to the Cotton Bowl. They have a

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Speaker 4: pretty manageable, not maangible, non com but like I said,

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Speaker 4: I've talked about they should be favoring every conference game.

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Speaker 4: They're probably gonna lose to Oklahoma, but I like the

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Speaker 4: fact that they have TCU on the schedule because if

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Speaker 4: they beat TCU, that's a good Power five win. Who

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Speaker 4: knows what tc will be especially early on in placing

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Speaker 4: so many starters, DA could springboard them up into the

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Speaker 4: G five combo conversation. So give me SMU.

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Speaker 5: I know this is a good pain you. I'm taking

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Speaker 5: one of your guys, doctor Frank Harris in his seventh

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Speaker 5: year in San Antonio. That's utsa that go Roadrunners meet meep.

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Speaker 5: This offense is still ready to go. I understand that

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Speaker 5: they lost will Stein as their OC to Oregon, but

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Speaker 5: I love Trailer. I love what he's built at the

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Speaker 5: G five level. They've given him a contract extension, so

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Speaker 5: I really believe in what they're capable of this year.

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Speaker 5: And defensively, they get their quarterback of their defense back,

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Speaker 5: Rashad Wisdom. He could be the difference maker if they

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Speaker 5: can move into that just mediocre conversation defensively against the past,

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Speaker 5: I think they're gonna have a chance to make it

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Speaker 5: a three peat. Conference USA. Two years ago Conference USA

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Speaker 5: title last year and then AAC in year one. I

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Speaker 5: would love to see it from the roadrunner, So I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna go and hitch my wagon too. A great offense

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Speaker 5: and a great quarterback. All right, who do you have

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Speaker 5: as your third overall pick? Yeah? That was good.

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Speaker 4: That was gonna be my next pick. I'm sticking the AC.

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Speaker 4: I was gonna take Yousa, but I'll take the AAC favorite.

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Speaker 4: I'll take Tulane. They burned us last year. I'm not

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Speaker 4: gonna let it happen again. They play All Miss in

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Speaker 4: the non con. But you know, realistically, South Alabama, if

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Speaker 4: we both like them to win the Sunbelt, that could

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Speaker 4: be a good game on their resume if they get

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Speaker 4: that win, and then, like I said, they're the favorite

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Speaker 4: in the American So if they can run the table

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Speaker 4: again and get back to the when the AC, I

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Speaker 4: like their chances to be right back in that game.

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Speaker 5: You brought it up early in terms of non conference

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Speaker 5: schedule and how it relates to SMU and an opportunity

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Speaker 5: to get a marquee win. Boys, he's got two shots

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Speaker 5: at it. They go to Seattle and they play Washington

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Speaker 5: and the opener, and then they host UCF with their

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Speaker 5: new Big twelve affiliation at home on the Taylor Green,

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Speaker 5: to me, was one of the most underrated players in

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Speaker 5: the entire country. Like when Boise got off to a

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Speaker 5: slow start, you know, they get rid of their play caller,

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Speaker 5: there was some dysfunction, there was a feeling that's they

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Speaker 5: could move on from their head coach. I think that's

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Speaker 5: where the national narrative left. And then they go ahead

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Speaker 5: and they just run rough shot over the mountin West

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Speaker 5: Conference last year, they get to the title game, they

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Speaker 5: do all these great things, and Taylor Green was an

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Speaker 5: incredible dual threat. The Air Force head coach called him

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Speaker 5: Vince Young esque. So at the fourth overall pick, I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna go ahead with a quarterback getting those kind of

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Speaker 5: compliments and hope that their new play caller OC doesn't

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Speaker 5: ruin what made him special last year, which was breaking

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Speaker 5: out of the pocket, making extending plays and making huge

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Speaker 5: you know, gash running plays with his legs. So I'm

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Speaker 5: hoping that Boise sticks with that script because Ashon gene

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Speaker 5: t At running back and George Tilane that's one hell

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Speaker 5: of a backfield. So I'll go ahead and hitch my

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Speaker 5: wagon to the Broncos and hope that they split, you know,

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Speaker 5: those two against UCF and Washington, and get a marquee

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Speaker 5: win out of it.

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Speaker 7: All.

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Speaker 5: Right, where are you going next?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they probably win the Mountain West, and that's obviously

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Speaker 4: the first step of this is when you're conference. So

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with the team we both think wins

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Speaker 4: the Sun Belt. I'll take South Alabama. You know, I

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Speaker 4: think there's a chance they played Tulane in the opener

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Speaker 4: and they could be favored in every game after that,

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Speaker 4: and that Tilian games winnable. They get their if they

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Speaker 4: get their revenge on Troy. You know, they have a

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Speaker 4: pretty pretty good slate here. I think they could they

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Speaker 4: could rack up some wins and be right up there

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Speaker 4: in that conversation.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna go with a team that I don't necessarily love.

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Speaker 5: I think that they underperform visa via their talent as

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Speaker 5: relates to their conference, and that's the Toledo Rockets. They

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Speaker 5: have by far the most talented roster in the MAC.

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Speaker 5: They bring back to Kwan Finn. They have a really

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Speaker 5: nice offensive line and running back room. I think that

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Speaker 5: they're going to be able to overwhelm a lot of teams,

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Speaker 5: but can they avoid that sleepwalking moment? And most importantly,

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Speaker 5: because they're going to be up against you know, these

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Speaker 5: AAC programs that, as you mentioned, have been knocking out

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Speaker 5: so many New Year's Six Bowl invitations over the years.

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Speaker 5: A program like Boise State, who has national notoriety. You

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Speaker 5: gotta get some, you know, big wins. You gotta go

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Speaker 5: buck hunting, you gotta have those trophy prizes up on

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Speaker 5: the wall. They open with Illinois, that's your opportunity. Illinois

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Speaker 5: is a winnable game. I believe they're a nine or

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Speaker 5: ten point underdog there, but they have the veteran quarterback

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Speaker 5: play to get it done. You win there, and then

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Speaker 5: it's a question of does Jason Kandell keep this team

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Speaker 5: focused for all twelve regular season games so that there's

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Speaker 5: no letdown, there's no bowling Green game from last year

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Speaker 5: that rears its ugly head. I'll go with Toledo. It's

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Speaker 5: kind of a value play here at six overall.

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Speaker 4: I'll go with the last conference favorite left on the board.

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Speaker 4: Give me Western Kentucky. You know, no Bailey's happy, but

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Speaker 4: Austin Reid lit it up last year. And other than

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Speaker 4: they play Ohio State, other than that, they can go

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Speaker 4: eleven one. I'm down on liberty. So the Hilltoppers could

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Speaker 4: go eleven to one. If they can, you know, not

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Speaker 4: lose by one hundred to Ohio State, they could. They

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Speaker 4: should end up rank if they do that.

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Speaker 5: My next pick here comes with a big asterisk. Can

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Speaker 5: they figure out defense. I don't know if Memphis can

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Speaker 5: figure out defense, but offensively they should have a really

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Speaker 5: potent offense seth Andigan is getting up there in terms

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Speaker 5: of experience. This is his third year as the starter.

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Speaker 5: What they have in the running back room, I really like,

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Speaker 5: I just want to kind of load up with as

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Speaker 5: many AAC teams as I can, because I do think

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Speaker 5: you have an opportunity not only to get those marque

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Speaker 5: non conference wins, but even ranked wins within your conference

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Speaker 5: down the stretch where you're going to have, to your point,

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Speaker 5: a Western Kentucky team that may have one regular season loss,

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Speaker 5: how do you leapfrog them at the very end getting

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Speaker 5: to an AAC title game playing a team that's ranked

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Speaker 5: you know, sixteenth, seventeenth to the country. So I'll go

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Speaker 5: ahead with Memphis. I think they have a chance to

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Speaker 5: hang around be a thorn in the side of some

390
00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:54,520
Speaker 5: teams here. If they figure it out on defense, it's

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Speaker 5: a big if. But I was between them and one

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Speaker 5: other AAC team. So here's fingers crossed that you don't

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Speaker 5: dip into a little more time with your last pick.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I know, do I do? There's one more AAC team.

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Speaker 4: Now I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go with Coastal Carolina.

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Speaker 4: If South Alabama doesn't win defenses.

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Speaker 5: I mean, Grayson McCall can't play both ways.

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Speaker 4: True, but if South Alabama doesn't win the Sunbelt, coach

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Speaker 4: Wal's got a good shot to do it. And I

400
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Speaker 4: think too when it comes down to let's be honest,

401
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 4: the college football you know, playoff ratings or a TV

402
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Speaker 4: show and it's hard to come out of nowhere and

403
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Speaker 4: like get on people's radars. Coastal is a brand name

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Speaker 4: at this point. Grayson McCall is one of the most

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Speaker 4: recognizable names in college football. I think that helps him

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Speaker 4: a lot. I think if it's you know, how many

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Speaker 4: you know college football writers and fans can name South

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Speaker 4: Alabama's quarterback where everyone knows McCall. So it comes down

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Speaker 4: to it, you know, if they're both ten and two,

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Speaker 4: eleven to one, Coastal probably gets ranked higher because it's

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Speaker 4: Coastal and it's McCall. So I'll take the shots here.

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Speaker 4: So my last pick, I'm going to.

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Speaker 5: Take a shot on a name that used to be

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Speaker 5: a G five superstar, and that's Tom Herman. He's landed

415
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Speaker 5: in Boca Ratan and he's leading the fau Als and

416
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Speaker 5: this team to me, has everything it needs to kind

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Speaker 5: of surprise and win the AAC. They got sixteen returning starters,

418
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Speaker 5: they're plus seven and the net tarp. Hat tip to

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Speaker 5: Colin Wilson for that. Their quarterback play could be great

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Speaker 5: with Casey Thompson, they have a really good running back room,

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Speaker 5: like the wide receiving core with Wester There's just like

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Speaker 5: a lot to like. But really just comes down to

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Speaker 5: Herman for me. Like other than his stop at Texas,

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Speaker 5: which by the way, he went thirty two and eighteen,

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Speaker 5: it's not like he absolutely bombed out and it was

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Speaker 5: an embarrassment. He goes four to own bowl games. He

427
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Speaker 5: just didn't get them to the College Footbol Playoff, which

428
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 5: I understand that's the threshold of Texas. But everywhere else

429
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 5: he has been a superstar innovator on offense. Back to

430
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,959
Speaker 5: Texas State in the FCS at Rice, you know, transformed

431
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,639
Speaker 5: that offense. It was really the only time in the

432
00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,280
Speaker 5: last fifty years that Rice has had opponent offense goes

433
00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,359
Speaker 5: to Iowa State orchestrate. It's one of the biggest upsets

434
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 5: in college football history, knocking off the twenty eleven Oklahoma

435
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 5: State Cowboys, ruining their BCS streams, wins a nattie at

436
00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 5: Ohio State with all their quarterback injuries, and then kills

437
00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,280
Speaker 5: it at Houston. He's already done this in the AAC,

438
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,639
Speaker 5: took him to a New Year six Bowl, the Peach Bowl.

439
00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 5: They smashed Florida State. I think it's a great value

440
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:15,800
Speaker 5: played this late in the draft. What do you think

441
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,399
Speaker 5: about FAU. Is there just too much of a crowd

442
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 5: in the AAC for them to get to the top.

443
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 5: Do you think there's a chance that gets to the

444
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:22,160
Speaker 5: title game?

445
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:24,199
Speaker 4: Yeah, that would have been my other pick. I was

446
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:28,720
Speaker 4: deciding between. I basically didn't want to take three American teams.

447
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 4: But to your point, you know, we kind of how

448
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 4: many how many AAC teams did we take last year?

449
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,200
Speaker 4: I know we took UCF, Houston, Cincinnati, and we whipped

450
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 4: on two lane. So I think the more we should

451
00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,280
Speaker 4: we should have just picked the whole AAC and then

452
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 4: whoever wins that conference, let's go one more round. I'll

453
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 4: take Temple, you can have Charlotte. We'll cover all of

454
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 4: our bases.

455
00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 7: Justin kicks, all right.

456
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 5: So that's our ten picks there. I'm sure Mitchell and

457
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 5: Payne are listening closely. A programming reminder, Colin Wilson Stuckey

458
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 5: will release a date early this week so their week

459
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:04,159
Speaker 5: is zero. Preview will drop Thursday morning. And with the

460
00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,400
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461
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462
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464
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465
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466
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467
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468
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469
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470
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471
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472
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474
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475
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476
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477
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478
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479
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480
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481
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 5: best bets, baby, Let's let's get to what the people

482
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 5: came for. We got real football on Saturday, the very

483
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 5: first game the Emerald Isle in Ireland, Navy traveling to

484
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 5: play Notre Dame. I'm going to get started here with

485
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,960
Speaker 5: my best bet. I like under fifty and a half.

486
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 5: So let's do some housekeeping on Navy. Ken Neamozalolo out

487
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 5: Newberry in as their head coach. He brings Grant Chestnut

488
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 5: over as their oc from their days at Kennessas State

489
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,479
Speaker 5: at Knasaw State's running game here's a quick stat from

490
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:36,199
Speaker 5: the fcs Land. They finished in the top three of

491
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 5: rushing six in the last seven years. So Chesnutt knows

492
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 5: exactly how to add wrinkles to this offense to make

493
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 5: them more potent, specifically in the short passing game. And

494
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 5: Bill Wagner from the Capitol Gazette, he does great work

495
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 5: for the Baltimore Sun as well. He was recently interviewed

496
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 5: and I was listening in and he was basically saying,

497
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 5: when the Navy offense got stagnant in the last three years,

498
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 5: they're running the triple and then they were going play

499
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 5: action deep shots. They didn't have the receiving corps and

500
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,160
Speaker 5: they didn't have the accuracy from their quarterbacks to make

501
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 5: that efficient. And because of that, the offense just couldn't

502
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 5: hit those big plays. So what is Chess not going

503
00:23:07,200 --> 00:23:09,200
Speaker 5: to do. He's going to put tight ends on the field.

504
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 5: He's going to do more short passes, more passes in

505
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 5: the flats, flaares, crossing routes to get a little bit

506
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 5: more for the defense to have to keep in their

507
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,959
Speaker 5: mind and prepare for to cover the field horizontally. So

508
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 5: I think what that translates to is less of a

509
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 5: learning curve for their quarterbacks. They're not asking them to

510
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 5: be threatened needles, you know, making thirty five yard passes.

511
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 5: Just hit a wide open guy in the flat for

512
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 5: a five yard game. And what that says to me

513
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 5: is if Navy can get some more first downs, huge

514
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 5: alert here the new rules for college football, they're getting

515
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 5: rid of the first downs, stopping the clock except in

516
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 5: the last two minutes of the first and second half.

517
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 5: So what is that going to mean? Could mean that

518
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,399
Speaker 5: we're burning an additional three to five minutes off of

519
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 5: every single game. And when you look at a service academy,

520
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,360
Speaker 5: that potentially could be a little bit trickier in those

521
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,639
Speaker 5: third and manageable situations. Because of a new passing I

522
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 5: think they're going to be able to play keep away

523
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 5: in this game, at least early now. I remember Navy

524
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 5: finished one hundred and twenty fifth in seconds per play

525
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 5: last year, so this is already their preferred tempo. And

526
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 5: when you pair it with what they have on defense,

527
00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 5: Navy I understand fell short under Nia Matalolo in the

528
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 5: last few years, but their defense really came to play.

529
00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 5: They bring back nine starters from that defense last year

530
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,439
Speaker 5: that finished third against the run. They're up against a

531
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 5: Notre Dame offense that wants to run the football. Estime

532
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 5: is going to be their belcal and Jared Parker their OC.

533
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 5: When he was the OC at West Virginia, he just

534
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 5: fed Letty Brown the ball over and over and over again.

535
00:24:35,640 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 5: So I think it's a strength on strength battle. Notre

536
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,359
Speaker 5: Dame offensive line is very good. I just see longer

537
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 5: drives on both sides here, and Collins projection is calling

538
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 5: for this to be forty five for the total. It's

539
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:47,959
Speaker 5: in at fifteen and a half. You know, you can

540
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 5: argue about what those key numbers are between those two.

541
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 5: I think there's a lot of value here. I'm calling

542
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 5: Notre Dame twenty seven to seventeen, and I think it's

543
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 5: going to comfortably go under one little perk as a

544
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 5: final aside, just a cherry on here if I haven't

545
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 5: convinced you, maybe as a new kicker, so I'm hoping

546
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,679
Speaker 5: for a few shanks, you know, maybe take some points

547
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 5: off of the board that otherwise would have been some

548
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 5: free points for the Mids. What are your thoughts on

549
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 5: this game?

550
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think your play leads perfectly into my play,

551
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 4: which I'm taking Navy plus the points, it's twenty and

552
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 4: a half at bet MGM. I do believe there's a

553
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:23,919
Speaker 4: couple of twenty ones out there. They've kind of been

554
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 4: popping up, going back and forth twenty Obviously, I'd like

555
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 4: twenty one, but I still like twenty and a half. Honestly,

556
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 4: I would take twenty. So if you can get twenty one, great,

557
00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 4: If it drops a little, still take it. And as

558
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 4: you mentioned it, it's between you know, no one really

559
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:40,199
Speaker 4: knows what Navy's gonna be. So sure you can go

560
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:44,200
Speaker 4: watch you know, kennisow film and you can assume, try

561
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 4: to guess how much they'll throw, what their offense looks like.

562
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 4: But I think there's gonna be a lot of uncertainty.

563
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 4: It's kind of gonna be hard to scout this Navy team.

564
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 4: It's hard to know exactly what they're gonna do on offense.

565
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 4: You mentioned Notre Dame wanting to run the ball a lot,

566
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 4: and that's kind of Navy strength is defending the run.

567
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 4: You said it all with the clock rules and everything

568
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 4: getting smaller. So Navy, just in general, all service academies

569
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 4: is just these are good spots for them. Since in

570
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,639
Speaker 4: our Action Labs database, Since two thousand and five, Navy

571
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 4: is thirty one nineteen and two against the spread as

572
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 4: an underdog in non conference games. That is sixty two

573
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 4: percent hit rate. They're ten four and one as an

574
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,919
Speaker 4: underdog of more than ten five and one of at

575
00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,359
Speaker 4: least seventeen and three to zero as an underdog of

576
00:26:30,400 --> 00:26:33,119
Speaker 4: at least twenty Two of those came against thunder Day.

577
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 4: So just service academies as big dogs. I know Stockey

578
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 4: talks about this all the time. Is kind of an

579
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,119
Speaker 4: auto bet, and I love it even more. I don't

580
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 4: auto bet them. But given the uncertainty around how to

581
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 4: scout Navy, you mentioned the total is fifty. You like

582
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 4: the under If that hits, how does Navy not cover?

583
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 4: You think it's gonna be forty to ten? Like I don't.

584
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be you know, twenty eight fourteen.

585
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 4: So give me Navy plus two points. I liked twenty

586
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 4: can give twenty one even better.

587
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 5: Just the quick aside, What are your thoughts on Sam

588
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:07,360
Speaker 5: Hartman for me coming from the claw offense in Winston Salem,

589
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 5: Like they made that offense perfectly tailored for him, but

590
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 5: he had some really underrated receiving targets where Notre Dame

591
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 5: has a lot of highly touted recruits that just haven't

592
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 5: materialized yet. So in week one, week zero in this case,

593
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 5: I just don't necessarily see it all coming together with

594
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 5: a new play caller. There's just too many unknowns for

595
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 5: this to automatically click against a Navy defense that's actually

596
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 5: very good, has a lot of experience, plays hard, and

597
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 5: doesn't give up the big play.

598
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's also part of it. So I'm I am hot.

599
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 4: I really like Hartman. I think Hartman's awesome. I think

600
00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 4: he's the best quarterback Notre Dame's had in a while.

601
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 4: But you mentioned it, it's his first game. They have

602
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,439
Speaker 4: a new offensive coordinator and it's kind of if you

603
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 4: remember back to when was it like when did recently

604
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 4: Marchish never really had that weird situation where they were

605
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:56,160
Speaker 4: trying to hire Utah's offensive coordinator but apparently there wasn't

606
00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,479
Speaker 4: enough you know, donations at church that Sunday and Notre

607
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,560
Speaker 4: Dame couldn't afford him, so they like scrambled and hired

608
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 4: like they promoted like their tight end coach. And I

609
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,160
Speaker 4: don't know, I don't know much about him, but tight

610
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 4: end coach doesn't typically scream like sling the rock around

611
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 4: the yard. It kind of says, makes me to believe

612
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 4: like it's more bullyball and like big meaty tight end.

613
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,040
Speaker 4: Let's run the ball and run two tight end sets.

614
00:28:19,080 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 4: So again, I like Harman, but I can't picture him

615
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 4: coming out week one and just throwing the ball all

616
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 4: over this Navy back end. I think more like you said,

617
00:28:29,400 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 4: they're gonna lean on the run. They're gonna try to

618
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 4: ease in. They know they should be able to win

619
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,880
Speaker 4: this game without a huge sweat. So it's like, run

620
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 4: the ball, control the control the clock, beat Navy by fourteen.

621
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 4: Everyone goes, I'm happy, all right.

622
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 5: I know. How about back to you. We basically had

623
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 5: a mind meld there on the very first game in

624
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 5: week zero. Let's see if there's any friction between us.

625
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 4: I mean, what better place to start the season then

626
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,560
Speaker 4: with a little maction, baby, give me Ohio plus the points.

627
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 4: What's the line at now? It was at four, and

628
00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 4: now it's down. I think it's down to two and

629
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 4: a half. Now I like the money line. I'll take

630
00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 4: any points I can get because I think it's a

631
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 4: low scoring game. But give me whatever you got it

632
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:11,479
Speaker 4: dropped after Curtis Rourke was officially announced good to go starter.

633
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 4: I liked it anyway because I was kind of assuming that,

634
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 4: so hopefully you got in early. Ohio was every gamblers

635
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 4: darling last season, and I think they pick up right

636
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 4: when they left off. The Maple Missiles back mac Player

637
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 4: of the Year last year, thirty two hundred yards, twenty

638
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 4: five touchdowns, fourth in the country, and yards per attempt.

639
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 4: They like to sling it. Ben Gerro's back at running back.

640
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 4: He hit one thousand yards and thirteen touchdowns for the

641
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 4: five offensive linemen are back, the top receivers are back,

642
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 4: and on the other side of the ball, their strength.

643
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 4: They weren't the best defense, but their run defense was

644
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 4: really good. And that's what San Diego State wants to

645
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:48,680
Speaker 4: do the most, and that's kind of what they've always

646
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,520
Speaker 4: tried to do. They literally have a converted safety playing quarterback.

647
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 4: I'm not exactly worried about him taking the top off

648
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 4: the defense. And last year they took a huge step

649
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,800
Speaker 4: back running the ball. They were one hundred and twenty

650
00:29:58,840 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 4: second in rushing success last year, and I think we're

651
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 4: you know that as text, We've always known them to

652
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: be a great defense, great upfront pass rush, I think

653
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 4: that takes a big step back this year. I also

654
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 4: think they're kind of vulnerable in the secondary, and I

655
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 4: mentioned it with Rourke. He can beat that, he can

656
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 4: exploit that week secondary where that's also Ohio's weakness in

657
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 4: San Diego State can't take advantage of that. They don't

658
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 4: have the weapons on the outside and they don't have

659
00:30:22,800 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 4: the quarterback who can take the top off the defense.

660
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 4: So assuming Rourk's good to go one hundred percent, which

661
00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 4: it sounds like he is, which is why this number

662
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 4: has come down, I think Ohio wins the game. So

663
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 4: I'm I'm the type of person that loves to take

664
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 4: usually takes the points when I can get them, because

665
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 4: you know, if they lose by one, I'll kill myself

666
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 4: if I have a money line, so it's like, give

667
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 4: me the two and a half points. But I don't

668
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 4: hate a little sprinkle on the money line. I think

669
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 4: Ohio wins this game.

670
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 5: I'm with you. I like the bobs. I was on

671
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 5: their money line when they're plus one forty five. I

672
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 5: think they're down to plus one twenty out on the market.

673
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 5: Make sure a shot round for the best number there.

674
00:30:56,320 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 5: I don't need the points. I am confident. Pro Footballs

675
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 5: selected five Bobcats for preseason All MAC First Team. You know,

676
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 5: Curtis Rook you mentioned ban Goora running behind the line

677
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 5: that returns seventy five percent of their offensive line starts

678
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 5: is great. And then Sam Wiglass, I mean you talk

679
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 5: about a perfect like running oriented offense. And then deep

680
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 5: shot guy. He had eleven touchdowns last year. He was,

681
00:31:18,320 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 5: you know, his the Mac version of Chris Carter All.

682
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 5: He does catch touchdowns so bad, he's so fast. I

683
00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 5: love the team. I just want to see a MAC team.

684
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 5: It's been a few years at least since the MAC

685
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 5: team's really come out hot and played incredibly well in

686
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 5: a marquee kind of non conference game, and I want

687
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 5: to see them do this. I understand that their front

688
00:31:36,040 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 5: seven lost a lot of experience, and they were top

689
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 5: fifty against the run last year, so that's going to

690
00:31:40,120 --> 00:31:42,200
Speaker 5: be the focal point against the San Diego State team

691
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 5: that does like to run the football, but the secondary

692
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 5: could be much improved. And Mayden like he just doesn't

693
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 5: impress me. You know, he's a converted safety at quarterback

694
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 5: and I think he's going to have more on his

695
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 5: shoulders this year. As you pointed out the Aztecs, you know,

696
00:31:53,800 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 5: from a personnel standpoint of taking a step back in

697
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 5: their front seven. Much respect to Kurt Maddox, their DC.

698
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 5: I think he's one of the very best in the country,

699
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 5: but I think he's gonna have his handsful in this game.

700
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 5: So I'm on the bobs right there with you.

701
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 4: So I don't think we're doing an official Our longtime

702
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 4: listeners will know every week we usually do a money

703
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 4: line underdog parlay. I don't think we're doing an official

704
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 4: one this year. But you're saying, OHIOO would be in

705
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 4: it this week.

706
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 5: Oh, it would absolutely be in there for me this week.

707
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 4: Maybe pair them with a Jacksonville State maybe something like that.

708
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 5: Something like that. You know, there has been line movement there,

709
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 5: so technically, you know the game Cocks count in their

710
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 5: first FBS game. But we can actually get to that

711
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 5: as our additional comments, news and notes here at the

712
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 5: end of the pod. I need to go with my

713
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 5: second best bet. I tease it up, Diego Pavia, my guy.

714
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 5: They're hosting UMass in Las Crusis. You know, let me

715
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 5: get started with a little weather Channel dot com here

716
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 5: the past week up in Amherst, Massachusetts, it's been downright lovely,

717
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 5: mid seventies, little breezy. You know what the weather in

718
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 5: Las Crusis is going to be for this game, ninety

719
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 5: two degrees with a heat index of over one hundred.

720
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 5: Jerry Kill, defensive mastermind, is setting up a trap for

721
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 5: this minute man all offense that was awful last year.

722
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 5: They didn't even average twelve points per game. That was

723
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 5: one hundred and thirtieth in the country. They ran the

724
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 5: ball a lot. Here's a little spoiler. They couldn't run

725
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 5: it three point four yards per carry, one hundred and

726
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 5: third in the country. And now they're handing the reins

727
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 5: over to a three time transfer in Tyson Pumachan. This

728
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 5: team is no good. I understand that Don Brown defensively

729
00:33:19,200 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 5: is going to make life difficult on New Mexico State.

730
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 5: He's got some good corners. He's gonna you know, doctor

731
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 5: Blitz is gonna live up to his namesake and bring

732
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 5: the pressure. But Diego Pavia is mister improvisation. I don't

733
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,720
Speaker 5: even think I mentioned this. Pavia was an all state wrestler.

734
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 5: He had a scholarship offer from Nebraska and for those

735
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 5: not in the know Nebraska is a national powerhouse in wrestling.

736
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 5: This guy is tough as nails. He saw it off.

737
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 5: He's like five to ten. He's gonna be breaking tackles

738
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 5: and making wild throws. I love the Aggies in this game,

739
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 5: and really the only argument if you listen to Stucky's

740
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 5: best bets for the season, he was shitting all over

741
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 5: in New Mexico State. You know, the defense lost so

742
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 5: much and they were lucky to beat you know, the

743
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 5: crappy teams on their schedule, More crappy teams on the schedule,

744
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 5: and starts with UMass and Jamar Budden comes in from

745
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 5: Penn State. He was a four star guy. He's going

746
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 5: to anchor that linebacking corps. They also add Dion Wilson

747
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,880
Speaker 5: Junior at defensive tackle from Arizona Glinton at cornerback from Wyoming.

748
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 5: These are all three star guys kind of plugging in,

749
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 5: and Jerry Kill kept his coaching staff together. I listened

750
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 5: to Conference USA media days. I listened to some interviews

751
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 5: with him. He's now speaking from a place of confidence

752
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 5: that this defense is going to be just as good

753
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 5: as they were down the stretch last year, and offensively

754
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 5: under Tim Beck the Pittsburgh State Tim Beck. They took

755
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 5: that huge jump in the last three games of the season,

756
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 5: and I expect more star Thomas at running back, Jones

757
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 5: at running back, Pavia like they're gonna hit some big

758
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 5: plays in the run game and open things up for

759
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 5: their passing game. So you may be scared away because

760
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 5: of that hook, because of the unit seven and a half,

761
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 5: and you figure these are two teams that historically don't

762
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,359
Speaker 5: win many games. New Mexico state'surreal this year they're going

763
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 5: to be a bold team again. UMass is far far

764
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 5: away from that, with a lot of retreads on offense.

765
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:00,960
Speaker 5: So I'm gonna go with the Aggies in cruises.

766
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 4: Well, well, well, calibres. I were doing my research last

767
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 4: night and I wrote down lean New Mexico State minus

768
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 4: seven and a half because I was iffy because I

769
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 4: don't like going against Stuckey. It's just something I don't

770
00:35:13,440 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 4: tend to do as often because I don't think it's

771
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 4: profitable to go against Stucky very much. But the G

772
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,440
Speaker 4: five boys have to stick together. And as of now

773
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 4: i'm looking it's Tuesday night. I'm looking at bet MGM

774
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,799
Speaker 4: New Mexico State minus six and a half. Give me

775
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 4: the hook on the other way, I'm locking it in

776
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 4: with you. Six and a half. I'll take it. You

777
00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 4: said it. New Mexico State was fifth in the country

778
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 4: and explosiveness last year. They should get big plays all

779
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:39,880
Speaker 4: game here, And yeah, I have questions about their defense,

780
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 4: but you want to know what I have answers to

781
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 4: is UMass socks. On offense, they were one hundred and

782
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 4: thirty third in success rate. I'll be honest, I don't

783
00:35:45,840 --> 00:35:48,320
Speaker 4: even remember how many teams are in college football anymore.

784
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 4: It's hard to keep track.

785
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:50,399
Speaker 5: That's all of them at this point.

786
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:52,839
Speaker 4: It's one hundred and thirty third is not how many

787
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 4: there are.

788
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 5: That's right.

789
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:55,919
Speaker 4: Well, then they were dead last and that's not good.

790
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:58,479
Speaker 4: And while New Mexico State might have take a step

791
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 4: back on defense, I don't you Mass took a step

792
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 4: forward on offense. So there's not much better to answer

793
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 4: a question than to play U Mass's offense. Week one,

794
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 4: and you mentioned that I think they get enough big

795
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 4: plays to cover the spread and pull away late. I

796
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:14,480
Speaker 4: wasn't going to take it at seven and a half.

797
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 4: I'll take it at six and a half. G five

798
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 4: boys ride together, Suck it, Stucky, all.

799
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:22,240
Speaker 5: Right, let's go through the cutting room floor the games

800
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,479
Speaker 5: that did not make our best bet slate. Let's start

801
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 5: with Jacksonville State hosting UTEP, a former darling of this

802
00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:31,359
Speaker 5: podcast here in their very first FBS game. I went

803
00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:33,839
Speaker 5: ahead and bet it when it was Jacksonville State minus one.

804
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 5: I believe on in the market. Now they're actually catching points.

805
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 5: I was a little bit discouraged that Zion Web, their

806
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,320
Speaker 5: seventh year starter, was actually named as the co starter

807
00:36:41,480 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 5: on the depth chart this week. Don't love that from

808
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 5: rich Rod. What I do love is that, as Colin

809
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 5: Wilson likes to say, this is a hon Ready offense,

810
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 5: little Caesars style. They come in. They were fifth nationally

811
00:36:50,840 --> 00:36:53,399
Speaker 5: and rushing last year tenth and scoring at thirty six

812
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 5: points per game. They're going to run that famed rich

813
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 5: Rod offense, the West Virginia Rich Rod, the successful Arizona

814
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 5: Rich Rod, and where lewis at running back is a

815
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 5: stud as well. I stole am on the game Cocks

816
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 5: here because I have questions about how much UTEP lost defensively.

817
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,279
Speaker 5: Praise them all away is one of our G five

818
00:37:11,320 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 5: All Americans. I love them on the edge, but outside

819
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 5: of that, I think everything is kind of trending a

820
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 5: little bit closer to Jacksonville State here, and it's going

821
00:37:18,600 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 5: to be a zoo. As I mentioned very first FBS game,

822
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,320
Speaker 5: this has been a proud program that's won a lot

823
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 5: of games at that level. They've been a playoff team.

824
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 5: They upset Florida State a couple of years ago. Like,

825
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 5: this is a team that's ready for the jump, and

826
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:32,399
Speaker 5: we saw it in the sun Belt so many times.

827
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 5: James Madison moves up, they start kicking ass. App State

828
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 5: moves up, they do the same. I see something similar

829
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:39,960
Speaker 5: for Jacksonville State. I gonna go ahead and take an

830
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 5: offense with the veteran quarterback, hopefully he plays. They also

831
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 5: return thirteen starters outside of him, seventy percent of their

832
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 5: line starts. I like the game Cocks here. What are

833
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 5: your thoughts. I know that UTEP is a team we've

834
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:52,879
Speaker 5: been banging the drum for our iron skillets. I don't

835
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 5: know what they do out there in El Paso, but

836
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 5: pick axes onto the Skillets.

837
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, you TEPS team. I've always kind of

838
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 4: been up and down on because I feel like they

839
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 4: should be better than they are on paper. But they're frustrating,

840
00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 4: But what kind of seal do for me? I just

841
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:08,960
Speaker 4: I took a shot at stockys now a butter up

842
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 4: Colin so that we don't start a war with the

843
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 4: other podcast. But you know, the two kind of main

844
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 4: stats Colin always talks about being so important to covering

845
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 4: spreads is finishing drives and exposed to this in big plays.

846
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 4: UTEP's defense ranked in the hundreds in both of those categories,

847
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 4: finishing drives on offense and preventing big plays on defense.

848
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,879
Speaker 4: So is rich Rod offense is going to be able

849
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 4: to pick up big plays. That's kind of what Richrod

850
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:38,000
Speaker 4: likes to do. And if UTEP's not able to cash

851
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 4: in on their chances when they get in scoring position,

852
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 4: I'm gonna do. I think Jacksonville State can win this game,

853
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 4: So I took Jacksonville State as well, not as confident

854
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 4: to lock it up as my best. But obviously, you know,

855
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 4: plus one one and a half kind of a coin

856
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,400
Speaker 4: toss game. But yeah, I kind of do like the

857
00:38:54,440 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 4: idea of kind of tying that in with Ohio. Give

858
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 4: you a nice, nice big payout on two games that

859
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 4: potentially could be kind of coin flippy, get you a

860
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:03,200
Speaker 4: nice profit to start your season.

861
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:07,280
Speaker 5: The next game is a frequent Flyer mile special Hawaii

862
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 5: flying all the way to Nashville to play van Zy.

863
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 5: My power rankings call for this to be exactly seventeen

864
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 5: and a half. That's what the market has, So it's

865
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 5: a pass for me. There's lots of questions I have

866
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 5: about the Swaii team in terms of overall depth, in

867
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 5: terms of protection for Strader. I think he could be

868
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 5: under dress a lot. But I'm just not comfortable banking

869
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:29,319
Speaker 5: on a Vandy runaway win three plus touchdowns. So it's

870
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:30,919
Speaker 5: a pass. Is it that simple for you too?

871
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not gonna bet it, just kind of

872
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 4: because I don't want to to be honest with you.

873
00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 4: But if you're in like a pool, like I would

874
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 4: bet Vandy one hundred out of one hundred times before

875
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 4: I bet Hawaii. Know you say you don't trust the

876
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 4: Vanity to pull. I mean, they won this game sixty

877
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 4: three to ten last year on the island. Now it's

878
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 4: in Nashville. I like what Vandy's doing. I like what

879
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 4: Clark Lee's building. You know, they have a harder schedule,

880
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 4: so it might not show in the record, but I

881
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 4: think Vanderbilt is better than they were last year. I

882
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 4: think they're getting better. AJ Swan's back and we mentioned

883
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 4: it on our Mountain West preview. I don't think why

884
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 4: you did anything to improve or get better. So I

885
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 4: do think Vandy probably runs away with this. I don't

886
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 4: really kind of feel like betting it, but I bet

887
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 4: them a hell of a lot faster than.

888
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 7: I've bet Hawaii.

889
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 5: This next one on the card has an even bigger number.

890
00:40:12,440 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 5: It is USC minus thirty and a half thirty one

891
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:19,040
Speaker 5: depending on your book. This one kind of just it's

892
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:22,440
Speaker 5: a question of motivation. So if we were a fly

893
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,960
Speaker 5: on the wall inside of those USC offseason meetings in

894
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 5: their locker room, their spring game, Like, how did they

895
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 5: emotionally handle losing that classic Connon Bowl to Tulane. Do

896
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 5: they view it as an embarrassment? Do they view how

897
00:40:34,760 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 5: they finished the season, you know, getting pushed around defensively

898
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:40,839
Speaker 5: against Utah and the Pacxwell title game as an insult?

899
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 5: Or you know, do they kind of look at it

900
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 5: as we can just roll out the helmets, we can

901
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 5: roll out the Heisman Trophy winner and win this game

902
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 5: by twenty four points and just you know, go back

903
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 5: to our apartments and sleep it off because like they

904
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,320
Speaker 5: can do that. San Jose State does not have the defense.

905
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:57,400
Speaker 5: They do not have the D line pressure and superstars

906
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 5: that they really had the last two years. They do

907
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 5: have some punch offensively. Chevin Cordero used the butt of

908
00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:05,720
Speaker 5: our jokes leading into last season. He looks pretty solid

909
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 5: throughout the year, and you got to figure against the

910
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 5: USC defense that you got to prove it. To me,

911
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 5: you got to prove you can make open field tackles.

912
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 5: I know, bet Bear Alexander comes in on the d line.

913
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,879
Speaker 5: Arguably they should be better against the run. But there's

914
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 5: two things that I remember before last year. It was

915
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,080
Speaker 5: not being able to make tackles when it mattered and

916
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:25,480
Speaker 5: having incredible turnover luck in the first half of the season.

917
00:41:25,560 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 5: So I don't know. I'm kind of on the fence

918
00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:29,719
Speaker 5: and I want to see it from USC. There's a

919
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:31,480
Speaker 5: live beat opportunity. I think if they come out with

920
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 5: their hair on fire mainly on defense, if they show

921
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:38,120
Speaker 5: their physical they have a different tone, maybe I'll jump

922
00:41:38,120 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 5: in and lay a big number. But at this point

923
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 5: I'm just not interested.

924
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I bet USC. Colin Wilson wrote a

925
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:50,800
Speaker 4: really good piece over the summer about the biggest tarp

926
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 4: mismatches in week zero, and he highlighted how USC returned

927
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 4: seventy cent of their production on offense, obviously highlighted by

928
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 4: Caleb Williams in San Jose State returns just thirty five

929
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 4: percent on defense their place. You know, they have to

930
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 4: replace two of the last three Mountain West defensive players

931
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 4: of the year in addition to a three time All

932
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:14,320
Speaker 4: Conference linebacker. So I do like the Trojans here, I

933
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 4: will say the more I kind of dug in at

934
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 4: San Jose, the stay obviously ended up playing a future

935
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 4: on them. Cordero is my boy. Now we mentioned our

936
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 4: guys at the top, Cordero might be an honorable mentioned

937
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 4: for that. I feel like me and him used to

938
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 4: be budding rivals and then now we're like when when

939
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 4: Cain and Undertaker come together as the brothers of Destruction

940
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 4: after their long feud. That's gonna be me and Cordero

941
00:42:33,120 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 4: this year, tearing up the Mountain West. So I'll be honest,

942
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 4: if I had to re bet this today, I probably

943
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:41,160
Speaker 4: wouldn't take it. But I do have USC already in

944
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 4: my pocket.

945
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,480
Speaker 5: All right, let's look at the last game. Hammerin Hank

946
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:49,120
Speaker 5: Bachmeier has new home in rustin taking on FIU. FIU

947
00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 5: returns more offensive line starts than just about anybody in

948
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 5: Commerce USA eighty three point three percent thirteen returning starters overall,

949
00:42:56,880 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 5: including both specialists, Grayson James, a quarterback their plus six,

950
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,879
Speaker 5: and then that tarp. I guess I would lean that way,

951
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:07,760
Speaker 5: you know, for a team like them, losing Tyrese Chambers

952
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 5: to Maryland's, their wide receiver was really their best perimeter weapon.

953
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 5: If he was still there, I'd be a little bullish

954
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 5: and I'd hop in here. Other than that, I just

955
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:17,880
Speaker 5: want to see did La Tech fix their horrific defense?

956
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 5: Can Bachmeyer be effective and stay healthy at least, you know,

957
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,200
Speaker 5: through one game? Probably, But there's not a whole lot

958
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:25,879
Speaker 5: of sex appeal in this game, And like I said,

959
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 5: I'm gonna be focused more on live opportunities in the

960
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 5: late night game between San Jose State and USC. Anything

961
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:33,839
Speaker 5: interesting to you in this one? Not really?

962
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 4: This one of those games where I started writing my

963
00:43:35,360 --> 00:43:37,640
Speaker 4: notes without having a path and just kind of see

964
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 4: where the road took me. And you know, it's a

965
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 4: week zero. I get it. There's only eight games. If

966
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 4: you're a true degenerate and You're like, I gotta have

967
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 4: game action on every game. As I was writing these notes,

968
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,400
Speaker 4: I don't have much thoughts on FYU. Great you mentioned it,

969
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,280
Speaker 4: change is back. I don't know or think he's necessarily good.

970
00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 4: I don't really have any thoughts on FYU. The more

971
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:59,760
Speaker 4: I kind of dug into law Tech. You know, obviously

972
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 4: I think Bachmeyer's terrible if you listen to this pod before,

973
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,720
Speaker 4: but he's probably better than James. He's better than anybody

974
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 4: the Bulldogs have last year. They have some nice pieces.

975
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 4: Marquise Crosby, Squirrel Williams is electric smoke, Harris's back kind

976
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,840
Speaker 4: of a do it all do with wide receiver kick returner,

977
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:17,720
Speaker 4: And you mentioned that this defense was horrific. They added

978
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:19,759
Speaker 4: a ton of transfers, but it may take a few

979
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 4: games for them to get gelling. If you want to

980
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 4: bet every game, I probably would take the over in

981
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 4: this game. I don't love FIU's def or offense per se,

982
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 4: but the La Tech defense is so bad, you know,

983
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 4: total of fifty nine. I like the law Tech has

984
00:44:34,680 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 4: on offense. They have exciting pieces, and the thing that

985
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 4: I like about FIU to contribute to this is they're

986
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 4: one of the most aggressive teams in the country in

987
00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 4: terms of going for it on fourth down, which last

988
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:46,919
Speaker 4: year led them to either win the game or get

989
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,399
Speaker 4: lose by one hundred because they so for an over's sake,

990
00:44:50,840 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 4: maybe they go for an on fourth down score touchdown

991
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 4: instead of a field go get you an extra four points,

992
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 4: or they turn it over in law tech territory, give

993
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 4: them a short field quick, you know, Smoke Harris touchdown

994
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,839
Speaker 4: and run the score up a little bit. So if

995
00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 4: you want to play all eight games, I would probably

996
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:07,399
Speaker 4: lean over in this, but I probably won't have any

997
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 4: action in this one.

998
00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 5: I think you talked me into the over there. I

999
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 5: love Smokekeresey made our G five All American team, you know,

1000
00:45:13,600 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 5: because a special teams touchdown that's a huge, you know,

1001
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 5: boost to your over chances. So if I'm having a

1002
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 5: good week zero, maybe I'll go ahead and sprinkle if we.

1003
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's the last game of the night, right, it's

1004
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 4: the last game here? Yeah? Sorry, So after you cash,

1005
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:30,040
Speaker 4: youre Ohio Jacksonville State Parlay, throw a few shackles on

1006
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 4: this over and have yourself a good night.

1007
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 5: This has been the BBOC podcast The Group of five

1008
00:45:35,040 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 5: Deep Dive, presented by Bett MGM. We will be back

1009
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,680
Speaker 5: throughout the entire season. We have so much programming. Colin

1010
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 5: and Stucky are actually going to do their Week zero

1011
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 5: preview earlier this week, so we'll drop on your podcast

1012
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 5: feed on Thursday morning. And throughout the year, we're gonna

1013
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:53,359
Speaker 5: have the BCS with Brett McMurphy, Colin Stuckey, We're gonna

1014
00:45:53,360 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 5: have reaction shows. We're gonna have the Live Saturday show

1015
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:58,439
Speaker 5: as well. Over on YouTube, you can follow us there.

1016
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 5: Please subscribe, comment, tell a friend, tell him enemy. You

1017
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 5: know how we do here. Thank you so much for listening.

1018
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:05,840
Speaker 5: I'm Mike Calories. That's Mike Ianello. This has been the

1019
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,240
Speaker 5: group of five Deep dive. Let's get some winners here.

1020
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 7: In Week zero.

1021
00:46:20,239 --> 00:46:24,759
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1022
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1023
00:46:27,600 --> 00:46:30,720
Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler