1 00:00:03,160 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Grodowski. Thank 2 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:09,360 Speaker 1: you guys for being here. Happy Labor Day. I hope 3 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,440 Speaker 1: you're all relaxing on this holiday. Everyone is off a 4 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 1: side from me because there's no rest for the wicked. Well, 5 00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: for those who subscribe to my newsletter, you may have 6 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,960 Speaker 1: noticed I didn't send it out this week on Sunday 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: like I usually do because I was sick with COVID. 8 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: I contracted COVID last week when probably last Monday, I 9 00:00:32,720 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: think I contracted. I think I know exactly where I was, 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: and apparently COVID still exists, and it knocked me on 11 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,480 Speaker 1: my rear end for the better part of a week. 12 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: I'm on the men. I'm feeling much better. I sound 13 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: much better. I had to quarantine for a few days, 14 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: cancel all my plans. I didn't. I really didn't work 15 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: for like three days, which is very rare for me. 16 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: I just I couldn't focus on anything. Fever, every you 17 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: name it, I had it, and I just watched documentaries 18 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: from like the sixties, in seventies and eighties, like every 19 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: kind of depressing documentary. The Holocaust aids Homelessness, Elvis's manager 20 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,280 Speaker 1: stealing all his money. I was in a dark place, 21 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 1: so I just jumped right in and I saw watch 22 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 1: Daisy Jones and the Six by the Way on Amazon. 23 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: Highly recommend it. It's about a seventies rock band, very 24 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: loosely inspired by Fleewood Mac. But it was really really 25 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:27,039 Speaker 1: good anyway. So since I was down and out most 26 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: of last week, I wanted to be a bit easier 27 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: with the podcast episode this week. Give you some important numbers, 28 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: both domestically and abroad, and then do an extra long 29 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: ask me anything. So first the numbers. Domestically, they are 30 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 1: on special elections. You may have seen a news clipping 31 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,400 Speaker 1: last week that Republicans lost the super majority in the 32 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: Iowa State Senate. That was after three consecutive double digit losses, 33 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: sorry losses in three consecutive double digit Trump seats, so 34 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 1: seats that Trump won by more than ten points the 35 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: Republicans had lost after winning them originally in twenty twenty four. Now, 36 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:12,239 Speaker 1: special elections, especially when they're isolated, are not good predictors 37 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: of the future. When I worked for my first big 38 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,239 Speaker 1: campaign back in twenty ten, it was for Congress and 39 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: Bob Turner. He was the Republican running in Brooklyn and 40 00:02:20,639 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: Queens against Anthony Wiener. He lost his first election, but 41 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: then won the special the following year, and he flipped 42 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: a D plus seven seat. It was a big deal. 43 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: It was a big flip, right. But the very next 44 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: year Obama went on to win reelection. He only lost 45 00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,560 Speaker 1: two states that he had won before in two thousand 46 00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:43,839 Speaker 1: and eight, in North Carolina and Indiana. What the little trend, though, 47 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:47,880 Speaker 1: you saw from Bob Turner's victory was that the Jewish vote, 48 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:51,600 Speaker 1: especially the Orthodox Jewish vote, was turning away from Obama, 49 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:55,080 Speaker 1: especially over Israel. So on their own, they don't tell 50 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 1: you that much information, right, but you have to look 51 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:03,359 Speaker 1: at them collectively. You look at them collectively, you kind 52 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: of get history tells us. They have a way of 53 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,640 Speaker 1: pointing the direction upcoming elections go. So I got this 54 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 1: data from David near from the website the down Ballad. 55 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: He's blocking on Twitter, by the way, just he's a 56 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 1: liberal nutbag, but the data is correct anyway. From twenty 57 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 1: seventeen to twenty eighteen, there were one hundred and nineteen 58 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 1: special elections for mostly state legislative seats across the country. 59 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:32,560 Speaker 1: Those state Senate and state House seats and congressional seats 60 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 1: that have those special elections. Those districts on average voted 61 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 1: ten point six percent more Democratic than they had in 62 00:03:41,520 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, ten point six percent to the left of 63 00:03:44,880 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. Then the twenty eighteen midterms came out and 64 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: Democrats won the popular vote by nine points, so there 65 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 1: was an indicator in the special elections that the way 66 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: the general election was going in the midterms. Then during 67 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: the twenty nineteen twenty twenty special elections, there were seventy 68 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: seven races and they moved considerably to the right compared 69 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: to those of the twenty seventeen twenty eighteen special elections. 70 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: The twenty nineteen twenty twenty special elections saw that the 71 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: districts only moved five points to the left compared to 72 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: twenty and sixteen. The twenty twenty vote comes out and 73 00:04:20,640 --> 00:04:24,480 Speaker 1: Democrats win the popular vote by three points, So once 74 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 1: again it shows that the Democrats had a momentum, but 75 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,800 Speaker 1: not like they did in the twenty eighteen election. In 76 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two special elections, 77 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 1: remember this is when Joe Biden's in office. Now there 78 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:40,440 Speaker 1: are seventy seven special elections, those districts that had special 79 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: elections in that time period, they vote four points to 80 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 1: the right of where they voted in twenty twenty. So 81 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 1: Republicans do better in those special elections. The twenty twenty 82 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,279 Speaker 1: two midterms comes out, Republicans win the midterms by three points. 83 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: Then twenty twenty four happens, and I want to just 84 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: I know that's a lot of numbers, and probably your 85 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: eyes are glazing over, but this is like the little caveat. 86 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: So the special elections in twenty twenty one twenty twenty 87 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 1: two had Republicans winning them, Republicans win them. The terms 88 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three to twenty twenty four, Democrats won 89 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: specials right. They won the special elections by three point 90 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,720 Speaker 1: five percent more than the presidential election in twenty twenty 91 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 1: with the caveat that as momentum grew towards the twenty 92 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: twenty four election, Republicans started doing better and better and 93 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 1: better and winning more and more elections. But they had 94 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: lost so badly in the very beginning around twenty twenty 95 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: three that it couldn't mend the entire it couldn't average out. 96 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 1: But as the election grew, new grew near Republicans did 97 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: better Democrats did three point five percent, three point five 98 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: percent better than they had in twenty twenty. Republicans won 99 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: the popular vote by two points. So why did this 100 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: break from tradition? Right? Why was this election cycle, this 101 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: last election cycles a big deal? And how has the 102 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:06,760 Speaker 1: norms changed? Well? Because Donald Trump changed the coalitions. He 103 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: brought people who don't normally vote to come vote. And 104 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: what we saw from the David Shore data, had more 105 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 1: people voted in the twenty twenty four election, Trump would 106 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: have won by a bigger margin. Republicans have become a 107 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: party that is younger, that is more ethnically diverse, that 108 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:25,839 Speaker 1: is less religious, that is less politically tapped. Democrats, on 109 00:06:25,839 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: the other hand, have become an older voting block. They 110 00:06:28,480 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 1: are more dependent on highly engage while the older voters. 111 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: And so you see from this, I mean, but you 112 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: could see this anywhere. By the way, this is not 113 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 1: like just data numbers. Go watch MSNBC for any anti Doge, 114 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:48,719 Speaker 1: anti Trump protests over the last six months. Everybody has 115 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:51,719 Speaker 1: got gray hair in those crowds. Everyone going to an 116 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: Eric Sleewell rally has got gray hair. There is no 117 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 1: shame for people of a particular age. I mean My 118 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 1: mom has always said aging is a blessing, not a guarantee. 119 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: But this is a very specific type of voter that 120 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: is so much a part of the Democratic coalition, so 121 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 1: much a big part of the Democratic Party, that they 122 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: are dependent on them to fill their town halls, to 123 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: fill their rallies, to vote in their special elections. And 124 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: because special elections so far this year have not there's 125 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: not been that that many, but where they have happened 126 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: those districts where those districts have had special elections so 127 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 1: far this year, those districts have voted thirteen points to 128 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 1: the left of where they had voted in twenty twenty four. 129 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 1: That's the biggest leftward shift in at least the last 130 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: eight years. That's a huge movement towards Democrats. And is 131 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: it because Trump is incredibly unpopular? Trump is Trump is 132 00:07:56,920 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: Trump right? He never had the Obama Bush by and 133 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: balanced post election. I think his highest favorability numbers was 134 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 1: fifty one percent. There hasn't been a ton of high 135 00:08:07,640 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: quality polling taken recently, but among the ones that I've 136 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 1: seen that I really trust, in the last month, Trump's 137 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:16,080 Speaker 1: approval ratings probably around forty six percent on favorable's probably 138 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 1: fifty one percent, not awful, it's probably it's definitely on 139 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: par with President obama second term. So here's the question 140 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:26,360 Speaker 1: that I'm going to explore. I don't have the answer 141 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: for this episode. I'm gonna explore the next few months, 142 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 1: and then I'm trying to read the tea leaves on. 143 00:08:31,720 --> 00:08:37,080 Speaker 1: Are we witnessing a case where Republicans are headed towards 144 00:08:37,080 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 1: a historic blowout loss in this midterm A thirteen point negative, 145 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 1: a thirteen point shift in the specials is very very, 146 00:08:46,440 --> 00:08:53,199 Speaker 1: very very bad. Or are we seeing a more permanent 147 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:57,200 Speaker 1: change to the way our elections are happening in the 148 00:08:57,280 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 1: sense of in the two thousands, in the twenty tens, 149 00:09:01,440 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: Democrats counted on general elections with huge turnout numbers. Republicans 150 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 1: dependent on these special elections. These midterm elections were less 151 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: people voted because Trump has changed the coalition, because Democrats 152 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: are increasingly the party of baby boomers and hyperly active 153 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: baby boomers who watch MSNBC all day. Are we just 154 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 1: witnessing the way that we change politics that special elections 155 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,319 Speaker 1: are not going to be as good as an indicator 156 00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 1: for the future. I looked up what the generic ballad 157 00:09:38,040 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: looks like Democrats have a two point five percent lead 158 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: of Republicans. That's that doesn't say it's a wave because 159 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: in twenty ten, in twenty fourteen, in twenty eighteen, the 160 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:51,800 Speaker 1: polls all showed the wave was coming. This doesn't there. 161 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 1: The poll doesn't show there's a wave coming. Voter registration 162 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 1: doesn't show there's a wave coming. Special elections show there's 163 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: a wave coming. So I think that that's the question 164 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: that I can't answer for you guys right now. But 165 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,680 Speaker 1: it's important data to look at on whether or not 166 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: Republicans will lose the House and maybe the Senate. I 167 00:10:11,160 --> 00:10:13,760 Speaker 1: don't think that they can lose the Senate, but you know, whatever, 168 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: things have been stranger. So but if we're going to 169 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 1: have a twenty twenty six blue wave, I think depends 170 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 1: a lot on that and one of the three indicators 171 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:27,319 Speaker 1: I would look at to sit there and say, oh wow, 172 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: showing a wave is happening, says blue wave. And that's 173 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: special elections because they are voting once again. Special elections 174 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: that have happened this year so far have voted thirteen 175 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,560 Speaker 1: points to the left of where those districts were in 176 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. And if your district is having a 177 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: special election, please get out and vote. Because Republicans are 178 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: not voting in special elections, they're not voting in midterm elections, 179 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: they're not voting in local elections. It's a huge track 180 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: on the party. This is why, by the way, at 181 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: last Deponic did not get her UN job. She did 182 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,520 Speaker 1: not get the UN job because trends have turned out 183 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 1: so poinally for Republicans and special elections that Republicans couldn't 184 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:08,439 Speaker 1: afford the idea, the fact that they may hold her 185 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 1: seat in upstate New York. They thought that maybe they'd 186 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:12,400 Speaker 1: actually lose it if they had to go to a 187 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 1: special election. They can't depend on the Republican electorate when 188 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: it's not a presidential election. So yeah, that's that is 189 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: where that's that's what's also going to change the way 190 00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: future presidents pick their cabinets. They will not pick them 191 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: in any swingy Ish district at all if it means 192 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: that they're going to have to hold special elections that 193 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:46,439 Speaker 1: will put will compromise the majorities. And that's something I 194 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 1: don't think it's going away. Okay, enough about special elections. 195 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: I'm going to go to one other issue before I 196 00:11:52,679 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 1: get to ask me anything that about something that's really 197 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:59,160 Speaker 1: important that's happening in Europe that nobody's covering. Stay tuned, 198 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 1: so if you're paying attention to the news from Europe, 199 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: you can see that the continent is really dealing with 200 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: a lot of turmoil and political instability that's only going 201 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:16,959 Speaker 1: to get worse next week, specifically on the date September eighth, 202 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,319 Speaker 1: that's when France's parliament will take a vote of no 203 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 1: confidence on their prime minister. Okay, let me take a 204 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 1: step back to my mostly American audience. I have a 205 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: few European listeners, but the most American audience who don't 206 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: know French politics. France has a very strong presidency, the 207 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: strongest in all of Europe. Right parliament is basically there 208 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 1: to rubber stamp the president's agenda. This is the historical truth, 209 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: and the president appoints the prime minister and then the 210 00:12:43,559 --> 00:12:48,720 Speaker 1: legislature approves it. When you have the majority, your party 211 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 1: has the majority in the legislature, it's very easy to 212 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: get your prime minister approved. Emmanuel mccron, who was first 213 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 1: elected president of France in twenty seventeen, came with a 214 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: huge parliament majority representing political centrism in France. He was 215 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: a capitalist who supported reforming France's finances, supporting the institutions 216 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,320 Speaker 1: of Europe. He was socially progressive for France. The media 217 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,199 Speaker 1: was absolutely in love with him, and most importantly, people 218 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:21,680 Speaker 1: hoped he would fill the role that Angola Merkel German 219 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: Chancellor Angela Merkel left when she retired, that he could 220 00:13:26,400 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 1: basically be this unifying political juggernaut within Europe. Macron's popularity 221 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: has fallen into Tathers right. It has fallen apart like unbelievably, 222 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: especially in the last year. He surprisingly last year called 223 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: for snap elections for the parliament, special elections, as I 224 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:50,839 Speaker 1: was just saying, and it resulted in his party losing 225 00:13:51,240 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 1: the majority. Basically, the parliament, the French Parliament, which has 226 00:13:55,600 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 1: always had historically one party governing it at any given time, 227 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:05,440 Speaker 1: is base is essentially now a third nationalist right and 228 00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: right wing parties, a third centrist parties and a third 229 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 1: socialist and far left parties, so there's no real chance 230 00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: to govern the parliament. It is completely splintered into thirds 231 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: and there's no way to form a cohesive government and 232 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: trying to tie together people who really hate each other 233 00:14:25,960 --> 00:14:27,880 Speaker 1: and want nothing to do with each other. I'll tell 234 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: you this perfect example. In France, there's a tradition where 235 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: the youngest member of parliament who's elected gets to he 236 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: like shakes the hand of every new member as they're 237 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 1: sworn in. It's weird traditionally having France. Anyway, it's nice. Actually, 238 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: when you look at it, you're like, oh, this is 239 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: this is nice anyway. The youngest member of the French 240 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 1: Parliament is from a from the National Rally, from Marine 241 00:14:54,800 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: le Penz nationalist right wing party, the National Rally other members. 242 00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 1: For the first time, I think ever, they refuse to 243 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: shake his hand from all the other parties at a 244 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 1: protest that her party, which is the largest party in 245 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: the largest single party in the parliament, had his member 246 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: as the youngest elected. I mean, it's crazy. They really 247 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: hate each other. So with Macran right now, his current 248 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: Prime Minister, Francoise Bayroux, he's pushing forward a forty four 249 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 1: billion dollar spending cut, which is highly unpopular the French. 250 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 1: They loved spending a lot of money and retiring early 251 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:36,960 Speaker 1: and all the rest of it. Well, he thought he'd 252 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:40,000 Speaker 1: be able to push this through and he'd be able 253 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,600 Speaker 1: to kind of wiggle his way, but actually the members 254 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,840 Speaker 1: of the far left and the nationalist right are saying, no, 255 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 1: we're not going along with this, and in fact, not 256 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 1: only are we not going along with this, but we're 257 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: going to hold a vote of no confidence against you, which, 258 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:58,640 Speaker 1: unless some miraculous thing happens, he's going to fail. He 259 00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: will be ousted as the prime minister. On September the eighth. 260 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: France is going to go from one of the most 261 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,880 Speaker 1: stable political governments in Western Europe since nineteen fifty eight 262 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: to the most chaotic because this is the sixth prime 263 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: minister under Emmanuel Macron, three in the last two and 264 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: a half years. And if AP poll found that sixty 265 00:16:24,560 --> 00:16:27,160 Speaker 1: three percent of French edizens want to hold another stap election. 266 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: But if that happens, we're going to get basically close 267 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 1: to the same hung parliament we're going to get now, 268 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: No one will get a majority. I mean, party numbers 269 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 1: will shift. Macron's party will probably decline even further, and 270 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 1: the far left and the nationalists right are going to 271 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: grow in numbers. But France is in dire financial financial shape. 272 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 1: Their budget is crazy because of their generous pension program, 273 00:16:54,560 --> 00:16:59,200 Speaker 1: and they don't know what to do. Macron has said 274 00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: that he's going to tap his current Defense secretary as 275 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: the next prime minister if if they hold this no 276 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:08,760 Speaker 1: confident vote, which was going to I don't see how 277 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: any prime minister, given the number of members in the 278 00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:14,679 Speaker 1: Parliament and how the parliament breaks down, and is going 279 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,959 Speaker 1: to vote any different. I just don't. I don't see that. 280 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 1: The big question is will mccron end up resigning because 281 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 1: I mean, he lost six prime ministers, three in two 282 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 1: and a half years. He's going through them every couple 283 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: hundred days. This is not a good look people. Right 284 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: now he's saying no, he's saying I'm staying until my 285 00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: term ends in twenty twenty seven, but almost, and he's 286 00:17:39,560 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 1: saying this is come one. He always wants to protect 287 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: his legacy. He doesn't want to be the man who 288 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 1: stepped down. Guess what your legacy looks worse if you 289 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:50,919 Speaker 1: leave with like a seven percent approval rating and someone 290 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 1: you hate, well, he's gonna hate whoever the successor is, 291 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,359 Speaker 1: no matter what, because there's no there's no soft landing 292 00:17:56,440 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: right now for France. It will be worse for him though. 293 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 1: If Jordan Bardella, who is of the Nationalist Party, or 294 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:09,880 Speaker 1: if one of the far left leaders becomes the next 295 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: president of France in his in his absence after he retires. 296 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:20,000 Speaker 1: I just don't see how he comes out of this 297 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 1: smelling like daisies, and he doesn't want to resign, but 298 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 1: there's literally no safe place for him. Right now, France 299 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: is headed towards a giant political crisis, and either Jordan 300 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 1: Bardella and the National Rally and this is the Nationalist 301 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: party of the National Rally, or the far Left will 302 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,439 Speaker 1: inherit the political throne. Is my prediction of France. Something 303 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: is going to happen that will be like never seen 304 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: before and France. If France gets a nationalist government, it 305 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: will be the largest nationalist right wing government in all 306 00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:57,359 Speaker 1: of Europe aside from Italy. And right now, for the 307 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: first time ever, I don't think there's been a time 308 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 1: the nationalists right are polling in first place in Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, 309 00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: the Netherlands, France and England. I think they're still in 310 00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,439 Speaker 1: second space, their third in Spain, third and portraital I'm 311 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:18,959 Speaker 1: not reading this by the I'm going on my head 312 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 1: of the poles I've seen before. Second in Sweden. So yeah, 313 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: first in England, France, Italy, Austria, Czech Republic, Germany and 314 00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: Switzerland and the Netherlands. That's never happened before. That is 315 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,360 Speaker 1: a fundamental shift. If all those countries had out Georgia Maloney, 316 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 1: you know how different Europe will love you know how 317 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: in Bold and Georgia Maloney would be. Anyway, it's fascinating times. 318 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,479 Speaker 1: Next week it all happens. We'll see if emnual machron 319 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: can survive. Next up is ask Me Anything. Okay, now 320 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: it's time for Ask Me Anything. If you want to 321 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 1: be part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me 322 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan at 323 00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: numbers Game podcast dot com. First question comes from Kevin 324 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,479 Speaker 1: from Vermont. He said, I've heard it said, more guns 325 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,240 Speaker 1: equal less crime. What do the numbers say? If you 326 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,760 Speaker 1: could conclude numbers from other countries around the world, I'd 327 00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: love to see the numbers line up with what you 328 00:20:16,280 --> 00:20:18,600 Speaker 1: see in the US. Kevin, thank you for your question. 329 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:22,640 Speaker 1: So the phrase more guns, crime less crime comes from 330 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 1: John Lott, who's a very smart writer. He wrote a 331 00:20:25,800 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: book with that name in nineteen ninety eight. He's republished 332 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 1: it several times if you would like to get it. 333 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:32,879 Speaker 1: It's more up to date than nineteen ninety eight. But 334 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 1: I actually sent John Lott a DM inviting him to 335 00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 1: this podcast to discuss it for a whole episode, because 336 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: I think it's actually a really great topic and he's 337 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: done so much of the research about this. His stuff 338 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:49,440 Speaker 1: has a lot of detractors, as anyone who makes those 339 00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,200 Speaker 1: kinds of sentences and claims would have, but he's a very, 340 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: very smart guy. When it comes to gun ownership. The 341 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: United States is far and away the most you know, 342 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 1: gun happy country in the world. Right. We are first 343 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 1: only behind Yemen, Serbia, Montenegro, Canada, Uruguay, Cyprus, Finland, and Lebanon. 344 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 1: Those are very diverse countries, so it's not helpful to 345 00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: compare what gun ownership and crime look like in all 346 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:24,600 Speaker 1: those places. I look specifically at America, and when you 347 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 1: talk about crime, and I'm going to go specifically into 348 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:31,560 Speaker 1: gun violence, right and homicide by guns, you hear a 349 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,960 Speaker 1: lot of Republican states have the highest amount of homicides, 350 00:21:36,480 --> 00:21:40,400 Speaker 1: and Republicans that's what democrats like Avenues say, and then 351 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: Republicans say, well, those are democratic cities and democratic mayors, 352 00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,840 Speaker 1: and they try to boil everything down to partisan politics. 353 00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 1: When you examine which states have the lowest level of 354 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,920 Speaker 1: gun crime, they are main Hawaii, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, 355 00:21:55,920 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: and Idaho. Three of those five states have concealed carry law. Maine, 356 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,439 Speaker 1: New Hampshire, and Idaho all have concealed carry laws. You 357 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 1: can all you can all constitutional carries what they also 358 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:09,959 Speaker 1: call it, they can carry a gun with you at 359 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: all times. Idaho is the fourth most heavily armed state 360 00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,479 Speaker 1: in the entire country too, So there's lots of guns 361 00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:20,199 Speaker 1: and very little crime. But I think that the easy association, 362 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 1: and I'm not happy to sit there and say this, 363 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 1: but the easy association is race. I mean, that's a 364 00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:30,520 Speaker 1: lot to do with gun crime in this country. Gavin 365 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 1: Newsom likes to sit there and say, oh, it's bred states. Well, 366 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:37,919 Speaker 1: the top five highest states for homicides are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, 367 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:41,639 Speaker 1: New Mexico, and South Carolina. So I'll put New Mexico 368 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: as a side for an outlier, right, But the four 369 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 1: of the five other ones are four or five blackest states. 370 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 1: If the According to the FBI and CDC statistics, the 371 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 1: homicide rate by race is overwhelmingly one sided on all 372 00:22:56,920 --> 00:23:01,320 Speaker 1: these other states. In Mississippi, the number of blacks killed 373 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,920 Speaker 1: in the state was thirty nine point two per one 374 00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 1: hundred thousand. For whites it was four per one hundred thousand. 375 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,439 Speaker 1: You are ten times as likely to be murdered in 376 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: a gun crime if you are black in Mississippi then 377 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: if you are white. Now, I know I have a 378 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: few liberal listeners and I love them, and they'll sit 379 00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: there and say, well, what makes you think that it's 380 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,200 Speaker 1: not the white people killing the black people. Well, because 381 00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:30,400 Speaker 1: federal statistics and lots of crime statistics, black homicide rate 382 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 1: is ninety four percent intraracial. That means ninety four percent 383 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:38,480 Speaker 1: of the time someone who is also black has killed 384 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,480 Speaker 1: a black person, right, nineteen out of twenty times. For 385 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:45,119 Speaker 1: white people, it's also very high, it's eighty six percent 386 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: intra racial. It's five out of every six times. Not 387 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 1: as high as the blacks, but it's an overwhelming majority. 388 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 1: Black men in Mississippi between the ages of fifteen to 389 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 1: thirty four are five point four percent of the population 390 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 1: and forty eight percent of all homicide victims in the state. 391 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,679 Speaker 1: So when we sit there in site, we have a 392 00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: gun a crime problem, a homicide problem. You know a 393 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: problem with gun crime in our country, Yes, but it 394 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: is so overwhelmingly within one very small demographic. How you 395 00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,639 Speaker 1: fix that problem I don't have an answer to. I 396 00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: don't have a clear cut answer to. But if you 397 00:24:29,880 --> 00:24:35,160 Speaker 1: were to separate the races in how crime is happening 398 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: to them, Black Americans, if they were their own country 399 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:40,879 Speaker 1: would be one of the most dangerous countries in the world, 400 00:24:40,960 --> 00:24:44,400 Speaker 1: and white Americans would basically be what Canada is. It's 401 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: very easily on par it is. It is a complete 402 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 1: racial breakdown, which is why the crime breakdown is difference. 403 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 1: Why you always see like New England States is some 404 00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: of the safest anyway, all right, I'm not. It doesn't 405 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: even pleasure to sit there and say these things. I'm 406 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 1: not sitting there and be like, oh, this is amazing, 407 00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 1: this is you know, look at how great white Americans are. 408 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: I'm saying that this is tragic, and it's been going 409 00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 1: on for a very, very very long time, and hopefully 410 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 1: one day someone figures out a way to crack down 411 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 1: it and stop so much blood shedding. Okay, and by 412 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:20,879 Speaker 1: the way, I'm going to invite John Lott on I 413 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,600 Speaker 1: really want them on to talk about specific that gun 414 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 1: ownership and crime and other store swords. All right. Next 415 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 1: question comes from Matt Osborne. He writes about the horrible 416 00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,160 Speaker 1: incident in Florida where an illegal alien driver from India 417 00:25:33,240 --> 00:25:36,159 Speaker 1: killed three Haitian migrants because he was driving a tractor 418 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:37,920 Speaker 1: trailer and he clearly didn't know any of the laws 419 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,640 Speaker 1: on the road. He writes, rogue states issuing driver's licenses, 420 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 1: especially commercial driver's licenses, create huge problems for law abiding 421 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,800 Speaker 1: parts of our society. What are the numbers data on 422 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,920 Speaker 1: illegal aliens with driver's licenses and commercial driver's licenses? Wasn't real? 423 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 1: I d supposed to fix this, okay? So there are 424 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 1: nineteen states that offer driver's licenses to illegal aliens. They 425 00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 1: are Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, 426 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: New Jersey, and New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, 427 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 1: and Hawaii. And Utah is the only state with a 428 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 1: Republican legislator and Republican governor who would overturn that in 429 00:26:18,280 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 1: a heartbeat. The District of Columbia also gives out driver's 430 00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:27,400 Speaker 1: licenses to illegal aliens, as does Puerto Rico, which okay anyway, 431 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,440 Speaker 1: So I don't know why Hawaii does. I mean, I 432 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: guess they're on an island whatever. So there's no national 433 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,040 Speaker 1: data base with a number of illegals with driver's licenses. 434 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: This is a data compiled. The data I'm offer New 435 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: York is compiled by the National Conference of State Legislators 436 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 1: and the National Immigration Law Center. There are an estimate, 437 00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 1: and this is just an estimate because we only really 438 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: have data on a few states, so we have to 439 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:53,480 Speaker 1: kind of like average them ount from what other states 440 00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 1: are issuing. But there's probably two million illegal aliens with 441 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 1: legal drives licenses on the road throughout the country today. 442 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: When it comes to commercial driver's licenses, it's really even 443 00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 1: more difficult to figure out the exact number. But the 444 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,640 Speaker 1: best estimate that comes is a twenty twenty five over 445 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 1: Driver report that finds approximately sixty thousand non citizens currently 446 00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 1: have commercial driver's licenses, which is I mean, like crazy high, 447 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 1: I mean, we anyone can I mean not anyone? Most 448 00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 1: people should be able to get a driver's licenses or 449 00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 1: has one. So I don't know why p American citizens 450 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 1: who can't find a job, aren't getting those jobs over 451 00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: non citizens? But whatever, the question of a real ID, yeah, 452 00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,520 Speaker 1: real ID should have worked. But like so much of 453 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: the nine to eleven Commission's findings, that was pushed aside 454 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,439 Speaker 1: and implementation was pushed aside because we the Bush administration 455 00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 1: was so dead set on going to war in Iraq. 456 00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:56,880 Speaker 1: There was a lot in the nine to eleven Commission 457 00:27:56,960 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 1: that was that came out in two thousand and four 458 00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,879 Speaker 1: that seems like such common sense to deal with counter 459 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 1: terrorism that was never implemented, like entry eggs of visa systems, 460 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,160 Speaker 1: like a border barrier. Yeah, the nine to eleven Commission 461 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: called for a fence or wall type situation long before 462 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 1: Trump ever came down, you know, the escalator, but the 463 00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 1: Bush administration just flat out ignored it. They had some 464 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,440 Speaker 1: dimsy little thing over a few hundred miles. It wasn't 465 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 1: a complete defense. It was a It was a joke, 466 00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: is what it was. And he did not do the 467 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: real idea act. So some of the stuff still hasn't happened, Like, 468 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,880 Speaker 1: some of this stuff is still not complete twenty years later, 469 00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 1: twenty what is it? Twenty one years later? And twenty 470 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,800 Speaker 1: one years after the commission was reported and twenty four 471 00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,840 Speaker 1: years since nine to eleven, and states have certainly have 472 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: a level autonomy and the Republican president and no Republican president, 473 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 1: not even Trump, has put teeth to this issue. If 474 00:28:56,880 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 1: you wanted the federal government to stop this, all you 475 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: would have to do is get the Republican Congress and 476 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 1: Republican Senate or Republican president to sit there and to 477 00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:13,920 Speaker 1: deny highway funds to states that offer illegal aliens driver's licenses. 478 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 1: That's all you'd have to do. This is how the 479 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 1: seat belt laws really took off. Seat belt laws. I mean, 480 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 1: there was Moms against drunk driving, that was a big 481 00:29:22,680 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: part of it, but seat belt laws really started popping 482 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 1: up across states back in I think the nineteen seventies 483 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:33,840 Speaker 1: and sixties. I think that's mostly the seventies, but they 484 00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 1: really started popping up a lot in the seventies and eighties. 485 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,640 Speaker 1: Because there is it is attached to federal highway funds. 486 00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:44,480 Speaker 1: That is why only one state, New Hampshire, does not 487 00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 1: have seatbelt laws, and that's why they do not get 488 00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 1: federal highway funds, or they I guess they get part 489 00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 1: of it. They don't get the full amount because they 490 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,200 Speaker 1: will not pass the seat belt law. Okay. Last question 491 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 1: comes from Frank. He writes, I live in Westchester County, 492 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 1: New York. I'm a registered as an independent years ago, 493 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 1: but I thought it would cut down on mails and 494 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 1: phone calls from the Republican Party. Is there any benefit 495 00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,440 Speaker 1: of switching my registration to a Republican other than being 496 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,680 Speaker 1: able to vote in primaries? I don't think I've ever 497 00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 1: voted for a Democrat except for a local judge where 498 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 1: Conservatives run as Democrats just to win. Is there any benefit? Well, 499 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 1: I think actually as an independent, you're more likely to 500 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 1: get called in a general election, in my opinion, because 501 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:28,840 Speaker 1: it depends on west part of Westchester you're living. If 502 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 1: you're living in a very heavily democratic part of the county, 503 00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 1: it is likely that there's probably no Republican primaries to 504 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 1: begin with. The Republican Party just nominate somebody and they 505 00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:47,400 Speaker 1: get the party line and then they run. And independents 506 00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,040 Speaker 1: are really a good group to go to to try 507 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:53,800 Speaker 1: to swing towards them. So I think that you probably 508 00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,360 Speaker 1: get actually more letters and registration being an independent than 509 00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 1: a Republican. I don't know. That's when my opinion is 510 00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: I'm a Murger Republican. I've I think that being able 511 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: to vote in the primaries matters a lot more. And 512 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: I don't think you'd be actually inconvenience that much with 513 00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 1: mail and other stuff. I think, I really do think 514 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,960 Speaker 1: you probably get more as an independent. So yeah, I mean, yes, 515 00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 1: you got to vote in primaries. That's the one advantage. 516 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 1: I think you'll actually get less male and that's it. 517 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,560 Speaker 1: I mean, there's nothing else really to it, aside from 518 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 1: I guess showing support for the party. Support for it 519 00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,200 Speaker 1: looks good on when when newsreels come out, they sit 520 00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 1: there and say so when so many people join the 521 00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,480 Speaker 1: republic Party as a one person thing, it doesn't really matter. 522 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 1: When thousands of people do it, it does matter. I 523 00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,360 Speaker 1: mean that's when people say they should I join, Should 524 00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,000 Speaker 1: I become a Catholic? I mean I've been a Catholic 525 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 1: my whole life. Yeah, I would say yes, but that's 526 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 1: my own But it's my own bias. So so come 527 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 1: and join the Republican Party. The water is warm. I 528 00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:01,200 Speaker 1: don't think there's any specific advantage to it, aside from 529 00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:03,520 Speaker 1: voting in primaries. But I do think if you're worried 530 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 1: about the mail and the phone calls. I don't think 531 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 1: that you're gonna I think the only thing that will 532 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: happen for you is you'll get petitioners to come to 533 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,200 Speaker 1: sign a petition so people get on the ballot. Aside 534 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,760 Speaker 1: from that, now it's about the same amount. So thank 535 00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: you guys for listening to this podcast. Happy labored Day. 536 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,480 Speaker 1: I'll be back on Thursday, post COVID feeling much better. 537 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 1: If you like this podcast, please subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, 538 00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,960 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts, and I will 539 00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 1: see you guys then