WEBVTT - White House Calls it 'Invasion' in Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>Team Buck. Welcome to the Freedom Huts. Tuesday, February twenty

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<v Speaker 1>second edition of the program. We have the Biden administration

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<v Speaker 1>calling in an invasion by Russia in Ukraine. We'll discuss

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<v Speaker 1>where this is likely to go. Plus Canadian cops apparently

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<v Speaker 1>gloating about their excessive use of force on peaceful trucker

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<v Speaker 1>protesters up in Ottawa. And I'm here in Mara Lago

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<v Speaker 1>and doing a sit down with my MainMan, Clay Travis,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course former President Trump today. So we got

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<v Speaker 1>a lot to discuss, as you no doubt can tell

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<v Speaker 1>based on what I'm already talking about. What does it

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<v Speaker 1>mean that they're calling it an invasion? And what are

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<v Speaker 1>Russia's next moves? What are they going to do? What

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<v Speaker 1>if they escalate dramatically? Could they even try to eliminate

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian government in a matter of days. I'll break

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<v Speaker 1>down for you the best war gaming of this situation

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<v Speaker 1>So they're calling it an invasion in Ukraine. Here's what's

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<v Speaker 1>gone on last twenty four hours. You have Russian forces

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<v Speaker 1>have occupied now officially they've even had a vote in

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<v Speaker 1>the Duma in the Russian parliament to allow for Russian

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<v Speaker 1>external military operations. And right now there is in fact

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<v Speaker 1>a ten to fifteen thousand and it's probably more than that.

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<v Speaker 1>We didn't even really know person military incursion Russian forces

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<v Speaker 1>into two breakaway provinces. The provinces in what is generally

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<v Speaker 1>referred to as the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. You

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<v Speaker 1>have Luhansk and Donetsk. Those are the two main cities

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<v Speaker 1>and main areas within Donbass of the concentration of these

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<v Speaker 1>Russian forces. This is obviously a matter of grave concern

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<v Speaker 1>for all of our European allies. Let's remember that we

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<v Speaker 1>have been brought into military conflict in Europe in the

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<v Speaker 1>recent past. There was the bombing campaign in the former Yugoslavia,

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<v Speaker 1>there was what happened with the US forces in Kosovo,

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<v Speaker 1>US involvement in the Balkans, really two times over. So

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<v Speaker 1>it's not unthinkable that our European allies could get drawn

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<v Speaker 1>into this and that maybe with them we could have

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<v Speaker 1>a larger role than what you want to Here's the

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<v Speaker 1>issue as we're seeing it play out, everyone's i think,

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<v Speaker 1>recognizing this right now. First of all, the time for

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<v Speaker 1>diplomacy is rapidly disappearing. Here's the former NATO Supreme Allied

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<v Speaker 1>Commander's quite a title, James Stavridis on Ukraine saying diplomacy

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<v Speaker 1>is running out. Play nine. I think you continue to

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<v Speaker 1>strengthen the Ukrainian military, you prepare for further military action,

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<v Speaker 1>and you prepare to create a resistance movement inside Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that could have a deterrent effect on

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<v Speaker 1>Vladimir Putin as well. So I think it's time to

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<v Speaker 1>move out pretty strongly. The time to parsewords and to

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<v Speaker 1>try and find a path to diplomacy I think is

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<v Speaker 1>slipping away from listen, path to diplomacy does seem to

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<v Speaker 1>be rapidly slipping away. And let's understand that this is

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<v Speaker 1>now all in Putin's hands. NATO is not going to

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<v Speaker 1>take military action against Russia, and I think to do

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<v Speaker 1>so would be crazy. Ultimately, we're in a tough position

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<v Speaker 1>here because this is a story of substantial news interest,

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<v Speaker 1>and I know people are going to say to me,

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<v Speaker 1>We'll hold on a second, Why are we so focused

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<v Speaker 1>on this Ukraine is not our problem, and that's true.

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<v Speaker 1>It is not our problem, and we should not deploy

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<v Speaker 1>military there, but understand that it will very quickly become

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<v Speaker 1>an issue that affects the global economy. If this turns

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<v Speaker 1>into all out war, which is a a real possibility

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<v Speaker 1>here between Russia and Ukraine, you're going to see we've

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<v Speaker 1>already seen a drop in the stock market, and people say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>if I don't know in stock do I care? It

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<v Speaker 1>affects the broader economy. But you're also going to see

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<v Speaker 1>gas prices spike and inflation could get even worse. In fact,

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<v Speaker 1>it's likely to get even worse. So there will be

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<v Speaker 1>ramifications of this that affect us. But that's a long

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<v Speaker 1>way from saying this is our fight or our problem

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<v Speaker 1>in a military sense. So I want to make sure

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<v Speaker 1>that we have that distinction. If anything we've learned of

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<v Speaker 1>the last twenty years, you don't want to be drawn

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<v Speaker 1>into fights where you don't have a clear sense of

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<v Speaker 1>exactly what you're trying to accomplish and what the goal

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<v Speaker 1>is and why are you there, what is the purpose

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<v Speaker 1>of it. So I understand that our border and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>an advocate for keeping this in mind, our southern border

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<v Speaker 1>is more important than Ukraine's borders and should get more

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<v Speaker 1>media focus and should get more attention. But right now

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<v Speaker 1>we do have an invasion underway, or at least that's

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<v Speaker 1>what the White House is calling it, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's worth us focusing in for a moment on what

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<v Speaker 1>that could mean for us as well. All to talk

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<v Speaker 1>about sanctions, I was going to tell you, as a

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<v Speaker 1>guy he used to be a CIA analyst and spent

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of time studying and learning about sanctions against

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<v Speaker 1>Saddam and sanctions against other sanctions are not gonna cut it.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not the big weapon. People in diplomatic circles like

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<v Speaker 1>to say those sanctions, sanctions are going to stop Putin.

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<v Speaker 1>Putin is worth billions and billions of dollars that we

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<v Speaker 1>estimate we know about. I mean, we don't even know.

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<v Speaker 1>He could be one of the richest people in the world.

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<v Speaker 1>What you think that this is a guy who's got

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<v Speaker 1>financial disclosure reports every year that people are looking at.

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<v Speaker 1>But the sanctions stopping him, it's not something that's likely

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<v Speaker 1>to happen. Here's NBC News International correspondent Ker Simmons pointing out, yeah, Putin,

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<v Speaker 1>he is not scared of these threatened sanctions. Play one.

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<v Speaker 1>President Puchin has been preparing for this day for many,

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<v Speaker 1>many years. And why I say that, it's because in

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<v Speaker 1>the Sexteo of States, I'll meet the Press yesterday talks

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<v Speaker 1>about massive sanctions, but in a viscial sense. Fundamentally, President

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<v Speaker 1>Puching isn't Tritons. He's not frightened because he's inner circular

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<v Speaker 1>already sanctioned. They can't leave Russia. He's not frightened because

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<v Speaker 1>he has those reserves. And I think he's not frightened too,

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<v Speaker 1>because he knows that potentially his next moves down the

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<v Speaker 1>line might be to cut off the gas to Russia,

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<v Speaker 1>causing to cut off the gas to Germany, causing panic

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<v Speaker 1>in Germany. Maybe some kind of a massive cyber attack,

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<v Speaker 1>massive cyber attack. There are a lot of things that

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<v Speaker 1>Putin could do here the question that I have, they've

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<v Speaker 1>sees the breakaway regions, and this is the playbook used

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<v Speaker 1>in late two thousand and eight, right as the transition

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<v Speaker 1>was happening from Bush to Obama. In late two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and eighth, there was the reality here of a Russian

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<v Speaker 1>playbook underway in Georgia. Abkhazia at South Ossetia, and those

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<v Speaker 1>breakaway provinces then were used. Now I think as a

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<v Speaker 1>means of testing out. They tested out how they would

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<v Speaker 1>do this, so they have breakaway provinces and going forward

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<v Speaker 1>they will absolutely do the same thing in this area

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<v Speaker 1>of Ukraine, although this is a much more substantive, larger,

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<v Speaker 1>more populous region. You're talking about the whole of the

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<v Speaker 1>Dawn Boss. So that's an important indicator here. What are

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<v Speaker 1>the Russians next move? There are a couple of options

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<v Speaker 1>as I see it. Putin could walk away with what

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<v Speaker 1>he's got, the full consolidation of these as part of

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian Federation. He's created the reality on the ground,

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<v Speaker 1>they've been distributing Russian passports, they have the narrative in place.

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<v Speaker 1>He could walk away, and that doesn't mean he won't

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<v Speaker 1>try to take the rest of Ukraine later. This may

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<v Speaker 1>just be a long term beachhead for that, subsuming if

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<v Speaker 1>you will. If I think that's the word of the

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<v Speaker 1>entirety of Ukraine into the Russian Federation over time, that's

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<v Speaker 1>the best case scenario as I see it. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>He's not going to bend the need of sanctions, No

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<v Speaker 1>way putin. Please this guy's x KGB. He's not messing around.

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<v Speaker 1>Next level of problems or concern here would be if

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<v Speaker 1>they use this as a means for a provocation, a

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<v Speaker 1>PROVOCATSI where they decide that they're going to have a

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<v Speaker 1>false flag in these regions, say that the Ukrainian military

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<v Speaker 1>attack them. I don't think you Ukrainting military will attack them,

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<v Speaker 1>but say there's been an incident, Ukrainian military attack and

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<v Speaker 1>now because Russian Federation forces have come under assault from

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<v Speaker 1>an active war. That will be the end of it.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna leave it there for today. Team, I'll talk

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<v Speaker 1>to you more about everything tomorrow. Thanks for being with me.

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<v Speaker 1>Shields high,