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Speaker 1: Team Buck. Welcome to the Freedom Huts. Tuesday, February twenty

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Speaker 1: second edition of the program. We have the Biden administration

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Speaker 1: calling in an invasion by Russia in Ukraine. We'll discuss

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Speaker 1: where this is likely to go. Plus Canadian cops apparently

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Speaker 1: gloating about their excessive use of force on peaceful trucker

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Speaker 1: protesters up in Ottawa. And I'm here in Mara Lago

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Speaker 1: and doing a sit down with my MainMan, Clay Travis,

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Speaker 1: and of course former President Trump today. So we got

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Speaker 1: a lot to discuss, as you no doubt can tell

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Speaker 1: based on what I'm already talking about. What does it

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Speaker 1: mean that they're calling it an invasion? And what are

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Speaker 1: Russia's next moves? What are they going to do? What

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Speaker 1: if they escalate dramatically? Could they even try to eliminate

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainian government in a matter of days. I'll break

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Speaker 1: down for you the best war gaming of this situation

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Speaker 1: that I can here in just a moment. Have you

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Speaker 1: Tell my friends at Dunfey real Estate, I say, Hi.

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Speaker 1: So they're calling it an invasion in Ukraine. Here's what's

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Speaker 1: gone on last twenty four hours. You have Russian forces

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Speaker 1: have occupied now officially they've even had a vote in

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Speaker 1: the Duma in the Russian parliament to allow for Russian

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Speaker 1: external military operations. And right now there is in fact

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Speaker 1: a ten to fifteen thousand and it's probably more than that.

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Speaker 1: We didn't even really know person military incursion Russian forces

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Speaker 1: into two breakaway provinces. The provinces in what is generally

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Speaker 1: referred to as the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine. You

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Speaker 1: have Luhansk and Donetsk. Those are the two main cities

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Speaker 1: and main areas within Donbass of the concentration of these

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Speaker 1: Russian forces. This is obviously a matter of grave concern

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Speaker 1: for all of our European allies. Let's remember that we

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Speaker 1: have been brought into military conflict in Europe in the

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Speaker 1: recent past. There was the bombing campaign in the former Yugoslavia,

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Speaker 1: there was what happened with the US forces in Kosovo,

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Speaker 1: US involvement in the Balkans, really two times over. So

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Speaker 1: it's not unthinkable that our European allies could get drawn

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Speaker 1: into this and that maybe with them we could have

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Speaker 1: a larger role than what you want to Here's the

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Speaker 1: issue as we're seeing it play out, everyone's i think,

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Speaker 1: recognizing this right now. First of all, the time for

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Speaker 1: diplomacy is rapidly disappearing. Here's the former NATO Supreme Allied

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Speaker 1: Commander's quite a title, James Stavridis on Ukraine saying diplomacy

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Speaker 1: is running out. Play nine. I think you continue to

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Speaker 1: strengthen the Ukrainian military, you prepare for further military action,

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Speaker 1: and you prepare to create a resistance movement inside Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: and I think that could have a deterrent effect on

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin as well. So I think it's time to

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Speaker 1: move out pretty strongly. The time to parsewords and to

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Speaker 1: try and find a path to diplomacy I think is

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Speaker 1: slipping away from listen, path to diplomacy does seem to

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Speaker 1: be rapidly slipping away. And let's understand that this is

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Speaker 1: now all in Putin's hands. NATO is not going to

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Speaker 1: take military action against Russia, and I think to do

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Speaker 1: so would be crazy. Ultimately, we're in a tough position

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Speaker 1: here because this is a story of substantial news interest,

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Speaker 1: and I know people are going to say to me,

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Speaker 1: We'll hold on a second, Why are we so focused

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Speaker 1: on this Ukraine is not our problem, and that's true.

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Speaker 1: It is not our problem, and we should not deploy

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Speaker 1: military there, but understand that it will very quickly become

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Speaker 1: an issue that affects the global economy. If this turns

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Speaker 1: into all out war, which is a a real possibility

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Speaker 1: here between Russia and Ukraine, you're going to see we've

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Speaker 1: already seen a drop in the stock market, and people say, well,

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Speaker 1: if I don't know in stock do I care? It

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Speaker 1: affects the broader economy. But you're also going to see

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Speaker 1: gas prices spike and inflation could get even worse. In fact,

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Speaker 1: it's likely to get even worse. So there will be

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Speaker 1: ramifications of this that affect us. But that's a long

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Speaker 1: way from saying this is our fight or our problem

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Speaker 1: in a military sense. So I want to make sure

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Speaker 1: that we have that distinction. If anything we've learned of

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Speaker 1: the last twenty years, you don't want to be drawn

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Speaker 1: into fights where you don't have a clear sense of

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Speaker 1: exactly what you're trying to accomplish and what the goal

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Speaker 1: is and why are you there, what is the purpose

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Speaker 1: of it. So I understand that our border and I'm

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Speaker 1: an advocate for keeping this in mind, our southern border

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Speaker 1: is more important than Ukraine's borders and should get more

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Speaker 1: media focus and should get more attention. But right now

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Speaker 1: we do have an invasion underway, or at least that's

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Speaker 1: what the White House is calling it, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's worth us focusing in for a moment on what

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Speaker 1: that could mean for us as well. All to talk

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Speaker 1: about sanctions, I was going to tell you, as a

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Speaker 1: guy he used to be a CIA analyst and spent

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Speaker 1: a lot of time studying and learning about sanctions against

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Speaker 1: Saddam and sanctions against other sanctions are not gonna cut it.

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Speaker 1: That's not the big weapon. People in diplomatic circles like

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Speaker 1: to say those sanctions, sanctions are going to stop Putin.

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Speaker 1: Putin is worth billions and billions of dollars that we

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Speaker 1: estimate we know about. I mean, we don't even know.

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Speaker 1: He could be one of the richest people in the world.

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Speaker 1: What you think that this is a guy who's got

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Speaker 1: financial disclosure reports every year that people are looking at.

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Speaker 1: But the sanctions stopping him, it's not something that's likely

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Speaker 1: to happen. Here's NBC News International correspondent Ker Simmons pointing out, yeah, Putin,

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Speaker 1: he is not scared of these threatened sanctions. Play one.

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Speaker 1: President Puchin has been preparing for this day for many,

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Speaker 1: many years. And why I say that, it's because in

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Speaker 1: the Sexteo of States, I'll meet the Press yesterday talks

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Speaker 1: about massive sanctions, but in a viscial sense. Fundamentally, President

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Speaker 1: Puching isn't Tritons. He's not frightened because he's inner circular

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Speaker 1: already sanctioned. They can't leave Russia. He's not frightened because

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Speaker 1: he has those reserves. And I think he's not frightened too,

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Speaker 1: because he knows that potentially his next moves down the

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Speaker 1: line might be to cut off the gas to Russia,

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Speaker 1: causing to cut off the gas to Germany, causing panic

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Speaker 1: in Germany. Maybe some kind of a massive cyber attack,

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Speaker 1: massive cyber attack. There are a lot of things that

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Speaker 1: Putin could do here the question that I have, they've

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Speaker 1: sees the breakaway regions, and this is the playbook used

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Speaker 1: in late two thousand and eight, right as the transition

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Speaker 1: was happening from Bush to Obama. In late two thousand

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Speaker 1: and eighth, there was the reality here of a Russian

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Speaker 1: playbook underway in Georgia. Abkhazia at South Ossetia, and those

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Speaker 1: breakaway provinces then were used. Now I think as a

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Speaker 1: means of testing out. They tested out how they would

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Speaker 1: do this, so they have breakaway provinces and going forward

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Speaker 1: they will absolutely do the same thing in this area

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine, although this is a much more substantive, larger,

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Speaker 1: more populous region. You're talking about the whole of the

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Speaker 1: Dawn Boss. So that's an important indicator here. What are

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Speaker 1: the Russians next move? There are a couple of options

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Speaker 1: as I see it. Putin could walk away with what

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Speaker 1: he's got, the full consolidation of these as part of

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Speaker 1: the Russian Federation. He's created the reality on the ground,

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Speaker 1: they've been distributing Russian passports, they have the narrative in place.

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Speaker 1: He could walk away, and that doesn't mean he won't

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Speaker 1: try to take the rest of Ukraine later. This may

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Speaker 1: just be a long term beachhead for that, subsuming if

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Speaker 1: you will. If I think that's the word of the

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Speaker 1: entirety of Ukraine into the Russian Federation over time, that's

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Speaker 1: the best case scenario as I see it. Right now,

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Speaker 1: He's not going to bend the need of sanctions, No

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Speaker 1: way putin. Please this guy's x KGB. He's not messing around.

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Speaker 1: Next level of problems or concern here would be if

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Speaker 1: they use this as a means for a provocation, a

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Speaker 1: PROVOCATSI where they decide that they're going to have a

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Speaker 1: false flag in these regions, say that the Ukrainian military

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Speaker 1: attack them. I don't think you Ukrainting military will attack them,

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Speaker 1: but say there's been an incident, Ukrainian military attack and

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Speaker 1: now because Russian Federation forces have come under assault from

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Speaker 1: an active war. That will be the end of it.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna leave it there for today. Team, I'll talk

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Speaker 1: to you more about everything tomorrow. Thanks for being with me.

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Speaker 1: Shields high,