WEBVTT - Surveillance: Mester Says Fed Policy in Good Place 0:00:09.880 --> 0:00:13.880 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm term Keene jay Leie. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.200 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg for 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.960 our audience worldwide. Life from London in New York. Joining 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:32.680 us now on Bloomberg Television and Radio. I'm pleased to 0:00:32.720 --> 0:00:35.479 say is the Cleveland Fed President Lauretta Mester, and of 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:38.240 course my good colleague and friend, Bloomberg International Economics and 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.760 Policy correspondent Michael McKee. President Mster, fantastic to have you 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:44.159 with us again on this program. We've appreciating your time. 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:47.840 Through much of this economy, in this recovery has continued. 0:00:48.159 --> 0:00:50.680 There is a real worry as we go deeper into 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:52.960 winter about what happens with the momentum that we've built 0:00:53.040 --> 0:00:56.000 up through the summer. Let's just start there, President Mster, 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:58.640 what do you see and where do you see deceleration 0:00:58.960 --> 0:01:02.040 that concerns you right now out Well, there's no doubt 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.399 about it that you said it. Well, there was a 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:06.959 lot of momentum. In fact, the economy had come back 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:09.440 stronger in the third quarter than many of us had 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:12.560 thought it would. The economy just proved to be more 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:20.200 resilient than than we had thought. UM. Despair across sectors. UM. Certainly, UM. 0:01:20.240 --> 0:01:24.000 Some sectors that really need that face to face UM 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:27.840 kind of commerce are not doing well at all. Other 0:01:27.920 --> 0:01:31.319 sectors are back to their pre pandemic levels or even beyond. 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:36.160 I'm thinking autos, I'm thinking housing. So that disparity is troubling. 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:39.240 We knew that things were going to slow down UM 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.800 after the bounce back in the third quarter, and you're 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:45.360 seeing that in the data. Now. UM, I am concerned 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:48.280 about the lack of fiscal policy. If you look back 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:52.120 and to the beige book that we had going into 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:55.560 the last fm C meeting, this is the compilation of 0:01:55.600 --> 0:01:58.600 all the contexts that we all um for prior to 0:01:58.600 --> 0:02:02.680 FLMC meetings. You'll see they had three concerns. One was 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:04.920 what was going to happen to the virus in the fall, 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.000 to what was gonna who was going to be the 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:11.720 next president of the United States? Election uncertainty, and three 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:14.400 what was going to happen with fiscal policy? Because they 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.720 were concerned without fiscal policy, things could get a lot worse. 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:21.080 So one of those uncertainty has been resolved. The election 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:26.200 uncertainty is resolved. But the virus case increase is very concerning, 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:29.400 and the fact that we don't have a fiscal package 0:02:29.960 --> 0:02:32.880 is very concerning. So monetary policy, of course, has been 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:35.080 you know, we've said we're using our tools, We're gonna 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:39.519 leave things very accommodative. We have interest rates essentially zero, 0:02:39.680 --> 0:02:43.080 we have UM asset purchases, and we have our thirteen 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:47.840 three facilities that are helping to get UM credit flowing 0:02:47.880 --> 0:02:51.800 to households and businesses. But with the despaired impact of 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:55.880 this pandemic, that's where fiscal policy plays a role, because 0:02:56.000 --> 0:03:00.320 fiscal policy can be really targeted two households and small 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:03.680 businesses that really need the aid, and the states and 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:06.600 local governments which have taken on a lot of the 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:10.400 burden here of helping. So I am concerned. Yesterday we 0:03:10.480 --> 0:03:14.440 had our Community Advisory Council meeting and these are representatives 0:03:14.680 --> 0:03:16.880 UM that are really on the ground in low and 0:03:16.919 --> 0:03:20.919 moderate income neighborhoods and and there's a real need for housing, 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:26.600 affordable housing. Food security is an issue that's becoming more 0:03:27.200 --> 0:03:30.919 a little more problematic as the fall has gone on 0:03:31.080 --> 0:03:34.000 and the virus. You know, the case numbers are troubling. 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:38.520 So you see states um putting on restrictions, and even 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.119 without states doing it, you can see in the mobility 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:45.080 data that we look at that people themselves are being 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:49.240 more restricted. Well exact, there doesn't seem to be any 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:53.120 sign that Congress is going to do anything at least 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:55.520 in the short run here. So does that mean you 0:03:55.560 --> 0:03:57.560 need to act, you need to do something at the 0:03:57.600 --> 0:04:01.839 December sixte meeting, Well, I think we're in a good 0:04:01.840 --> 0:04:05.280 place with our monetary policy because we are very accommodative. 0:04:05.600 --> 0:04:08.560 That I think the need is going to be need 0:04:08.560 --> 0:04:11.080 to be a fiscal response because they need to be 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:14.560 able to shore up the firms and the businesses that 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:17.200 are really being hurt by the pandemic. And as I said, 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:19.320 you can see some parts of the economy are doing 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.200 very well and yet there's a lot of people still 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:24.240 out of work. We have nine million people were not 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:26.880 even back to where we were in February, So you 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:30.600 know that disparity is really caused for a fiscal response. 0:04:31.200 --> 0:04:34.440 And if you continue, if you look back at where 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:37.880 we were at the start of this, the idea was 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:41.479 to come in with strong fiscal policy which happened that 0:04:41.600 --> 0:04:46.760 cares at response and with monetary policy working in tandem 0:04:47.320 --> 0:04:50.360 right to try to get people through that period where 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:54.040 the economy really had to shut down because of the 0:04:54.080 --> 0:04:57.400 surgeon the virus to make sure that we weren't overwhelming 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:01.360 our medical system. We're kind of back to those levels now. 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:03.599 I mean a lot of the medical systems in different 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:05.680 parts of the country now are really under a lot 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:10.400 of stress. And the idea that we're asking people to 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:14.120 make a sacrifice again and not having that aid in place, 0:05:14.240 --> 0:05:17.800 I think it's going to be really burdensome on the 0:05:17.839 --> 0:05:20.920 economy going forward and certainly burnens them on the families 0:05:21.520 --> 0:05:24.320 um that that are bearing the brunt of the small 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:27.800 business owners we talked to that are really, you know, 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:30.520 having to live now through some restrictions that they don't 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:32.160 know whether they're going to come out at the end 0:05:32.320 --> 0:05:34.400 or whether they're gonna have to shut down for good. 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.679 And I think these things are related in the sense 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:40.920 that if you were a small business owner or a 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:44.040 person with a job that has to go into work 0:05:44.880 --> 0:05:48.760 and you don't have that income security, right, it's hard 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:51.159 to follow some of the restrictions. So you know, on. 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:53.240 You know, you may be taking a little more risk 0:05:53.360 --> 0:05:56.000 because I don't have a job. If I don't go in, 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:59.080 so I might have been exposed, possibly to someone who 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:03.120 had the virus not showing symptoms. I may go into work. Similarly, 0:06:03.160 --> 0:06:07.080 a small business rather than you know, you know, shutting down, 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.359 if there's a number of people who might have been exposed, 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:11.640 they're going to try to stay open because they don't 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:13.400 really have a choice of the sense that if they 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:15.799 don't stay open, they're going to go out of business. 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:19.840 So income support I think it's needed for both to 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:22.960 help them get through. But I also think it affects 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:27.240 how well we aren't following what the public health officials 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.800 say are the right things to do to fight the virus. 0:06:30.800 --> 0:06:34.040 And I think that troubles me as well. Well, that's 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:36.000 all well and good, but Wall Street is looking at 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:37.599 this and saying, well, we're not going to get anything 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:39.640 out of Washington, so we need to get something out 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:42.200 of the Fed. Uh, the yield curve is steepened a 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:45.360 little bit. Maybe you need to turn out your holdings 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:47.720 on the balance sheet or maybe do a little more 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:50.640 QUEI do you think either of those things are called 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:54.000 for at the December meeting. Well, I mean, I'm not 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:56.880 going to pre judge the December meeting. We certainly at 0:06:56.920 --> 0:06:59.960 every meeting we go in we talk about where are police, 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.599 he is calibrated, and what we need to do to 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:06.400 make sure that we're adding accommodation and supporting the recovery. 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:10.200 But again, you know, you have to look across different 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:13.280 sectors and sort of evaluate what tool can it help 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:17.000 the most um to bring up the sectors that are 0:07:17.680 --> 0:07:20.760 you know, weakened in this and really affected by this. 0:07:20.880 --> 0:07:24.120 And it's not clear to me that monetary policy necessarily 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:27.200 is the right tool to address those concerns. I grant 0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:30.280 you that, you know, right now it looks like the 0:07:30.320 --> 0:07:33.080 fiscal authorities are not going to come in with another package, 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.400 but you also have to think about what was the 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:40.560 right tool to address this. And you know, to my mind, 0:07:40.560 --> 0:07:45.520 when you have a dispirit um, this such disparity across sectors, 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:48.960 it's the fiscal authorities and that fiscal policy that is 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.960 the right tool to use to address these things. And 0:07:52.040 --> 0:07:56.160 so that's what's sort of the tension here is that 0:07:56.320 --> 0:07:59.560 monetary policy is doing I think the right thing and 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:03.640 keeping things very accommodative and yet we don't have the 0:08:03.640 --> 0:08:06.520 other side, and it's not an either or like one 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:10.480 can't substitute for for the other. Right, the reason it 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.200 worked well in the beginning of the pandemic is they 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:17.119 were working together. They weren't substitutes. They were reinforcing one another, 0:08:18.400 --> 0:08:20.560 pres Messa. One thing you could do, obviously, and I 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:22.600 appreciate you're not here to pre judge the meeting, although 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:24.520 we would love you too. One question that has been 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.880 asked for people in fixed income markets at the moment 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:29.400 is whether you would expect the average maturity of your 0:08:29.400 --> 0:08:31.280 bond buying. I don't expect you to give me a 0:08:31.280 --> 0:08:32.560 decision on that, but could you tell me if you 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:36.440 see the benefits in doing something like that. Well, I mean, 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:40.640 as you know, from the the Great Financial Crisis and 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.760 the Great Recession, right, we went in and bought long 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:47.360 term assets to try to push down right the long 0:08:47.480 --> 0:08:50.960 end of the yield curve in terms of the yields there, 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:54.280 and that's a tool monetary policy. When we started the 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:58.680 asset purchases in this environment, it was more about market 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:02.320 dysfunction that we were being and the treasury market um 0:09:02.360 --> 0:09:05.520 and the mortgage backed security market. So the the actual 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:09.640 catalyst UM was about that dysfunctions we were buying across 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:13.960 the curve. UM. Of course those purchases also added accommodation, 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:18.240 so they had a two twofold effect. UM. But you're 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:20.880 right in the sense that there are things like, you know, 0:09:21.040 --> 0:09:26.559 looking at UM, the maturities that we're buying UM. Clarifying 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:31.400 our forward guidance on asset purchases UM can be helpful. 0:09:31.559 --> 0:09:33.480 You know, I'm a fan of you know, as clear 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:37.800 communications as we can make them UM, so that people 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:40.920 understand our reaction functions. So there are things like that, 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:46.880 UM that certainly would be under consideration UM. And that's 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:49.120 that's you know, going forward, we're going to have those 0:09:49.160 --> 0:09:52.520 discussions that are needing just because with time for time 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:54.960 is that something would discuss the next mate because we 0:09:55.000 --> 0:09:57.920 do understand the reaction function around interest rights very clearly. 0:09:57.920 --> 0:10:00.800 Now we don't un asset purchases. Is that something needs 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:04.360 to clarify. Well, I certainly am always a fan of 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.760 clarifying our communications. And you know, at every meeting we 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:10.200 talk about our communications as part of them. It comes 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:12.920 out of the meeting that statement that you see. So 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:16.640 that's gonna be a fundamental part of any fom C meeting, 0:10:16.640 --> 0:10:19.600 and I can't you know, say what will come out 0:10:19.640 --> 0:10:21.520 of the meeting, but I do think that it is 0:10:21.559 --> 0:10:24.480 an important part of how are we communicating our policy, 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:28.679 compete to the markets, and do that American public understand 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:33.280 why we're taking the actions we're taking um and including 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:37.400 all our tools. You're doing a financial stability conference today. 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:40.680 The last Senior Loan Officers survey showed that banks were 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:43.400 reporting weaker demand for business loans, and there were weaker 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:47.000 demand and tighter standards for commercial real estate. Do we 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:51.000 have a developing credit problem in this country? I don't 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:53.280 think so far, but I think that that's one of 0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:57.199 the things when you're thinking about a resilient financial system, 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.360 it's two fold. It's obviously you don't want your banks 0:11:00.400 --> 0:11:05.120 to fail. You want them to be robust through economic downturns. 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.840 But you also want the banks to be their lending 0:11:08.000 --> 0:11:10.360 through the downturn And as you know, we took some 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:15.120 actions um early in the pandemic to try to ensure 0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:18.760 that the banks were there um and able to lend 0:11:19.240 --> 0:11:24.319 um to their to their customers and to households and businesses. 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:28.360 So those are those actions were taken to ensure that 0:11:28.440 --> 0:11:31.200 credit could flow, and that the banking system was an 0:11:31.240 --> 0:11:34.360 important way of getting that credit flowing. So you know 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:37.840 they're going to be looking, of course at credit risk, 0:11:37.920 --> 0:11:41.440 and so far what's been. I think another strength of 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:45.280 this economy is that losses and credit losses have not 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:48.920 shown up at the banks um as much as they 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:52.520 might have. And so that's a positive in this economy, 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:54.920 is that we don't see the kinds of things that 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:59.400 we might have expected to see um given the shock 0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:01.680 and the d shock of hand now it was, but 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:04.880 we want to make sure that the financial system stays 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:10.640 robust and resilience so that lending continued. President messed Up. 0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:12.679 Always gracious with your time, and we appreciate it. Thank 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:14.000 you so much for jo want to guess hopefully we'll 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:20.160 catch up against soon before your end with us. Now 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:25.559 with immediate and essential labor perspective. Patrick Foy, MTA Chairman 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:28.920 and Chief executive officer, PET, I think you're lying to 0:12:28.960 --> 0:12:31.640 me I'm gonna cut to the chase In no way. 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.960 Do I think you're only gonna cut nine thousand, three 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:39.480 hundred or nine thousand, four hundred employees. What's the real number? 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.800 About six months? If you don't get support from the 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:48.960 federal government. Well, tom UH is a number of operating 0:12:49.040 --> 0:12:53.160 personnel that would be cut. We would obviously cut headquarters. 0:12:53.440 --> 0:12:58.720 Headquarters staffing is down from there's more to cut their 0:12:58.840 --> 0:13:02.320 Those people aren't involved in a delivery of services. But 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.160 we will be cutting we We've taken two point eight 0:13:05.160 --> 0:13:07.319 billion dollars out of the m t a's cost structure 0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:09.439 over the last couple of years. I would expect in 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:13.880 one apart from the service reductions, will take seven to 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:18.080 eight hundred billion dollars. Additionally, we're gonna be constantly cutting 0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:21.920 UH and and reducing our costs because that's the that's 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:23.920 the right thing to do. When the service reductions are 0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:27.360 on top of that, and the service reductions are staggering, 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:30.800 will affect every New Yorker, every one of our employees, 0:13:31.200 --> 0:13:33.400 and the rooting center at n y U says it 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.680 will cost the region of four hundred and fifty thousand 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:40.360 jobs and destroy about six five billion of regional GDP. 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:44.400 And that what's so important here is the conflation of 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.400 variable and fixed costs. And you've got all sorts of 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:53.559 realities including complexity, including union relationships, etcetera. What do we 0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:58.640 most get wrong about the fixedness of your variable costs. 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:05.960 Excellent questions on and I'll distinguished between subways and buses right, Uh. 0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:11.280 Subways have extensive fixed capital cost that has to be 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:14.400 maintained at For instance, if you reduce service on a 0:14:14.400 --> 0:14:17.640 subway line from a percent to eighty to sixty to forty, 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.280 you may be able to cut the number of train 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:24.600 operators and conductors. None of this is anything anybody at 0:14:24.600 --> 0:14:27.120 the MTA wants to do. But the men and women 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:33.200 who maintain the tracks, maintain the trains, communications power, etcetera. 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:38.400 Will have to maintain that subway line regardless of whether 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:41.480 ridership and the number of trains is forty or fifty 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:45.760 percent or eight percent of normal. That is not the case, uh, 0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.640 in in a bus in a bus system, because you 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:51.840 don't have that great fixed cost. And that is and 0:14:51.880 --> 0:14:56.000 obviously the operating leverage also associated with increases and ridership 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.360 increases in declines in in ridership your spot on. So 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.280 a lot of people may be listening to this program 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.360 from des Moyne or Cleveland or El Paso, and they're 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:08.800 looking at a much problem transit authority that has forty 0:15:08.800 --> 0:15:12.400 six billion dollars of debt, and they wonder why should 0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:16.560 we be paying for the situation that currently is at hand, 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:20.840 Albeit this is an extraordinary situation, but why should it 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:24.240 fall on them? What would you say, so A Lisa, 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.120 I, I I say a bunch of things. France, As you 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:29.520 mentioned Cleveland, there's mass transit in Cleveland, there's mass transit 0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:33.840 in Austin, Texas, in Atlanta and Washington, d C, in Chicago, 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:37.560 San Francisco, Los Angeles, across the New Orleans, across the 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:41.800 entire country, Blue States, Rent States. Mass transit is incredibly important. 0:15:42.120 --> 0:15:45.240 It happens to be that the MTA carries about of 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:49.640 mass transit riders, so obviously we're a larger operation with 0:15:49.800 --> 0:15:53.480 larger financial challenges. But every mass transit agency in the 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.280 country has been affected by the pandemic, not to the 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:59.240 same level of the m T A. Given our ridership 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.360 UH on a typical day pre pandemic, we've carried seven 0:16:03.360 --> 0:16:07.760 point five seven point six million customers, largest in North America. 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.280 But every one of the transit agencies in the United 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:13.480 States is feeling the same pressure, and we'll have to 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:17.240 take steps not unlike those that we're talking about. No 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.600 one if the MTA wants to make these service cuts 0:16:19.640 --> 0:16:23.280 because that's not what New York needs to feed the 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.840 economic recovery. And it's not it's not great service for 0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:30.200 first responders, essential employees, and our other customers and pat 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:34.000 There's a question also about a spiral downward spiral for 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:37.640 public transportation that if you don't have fast enough, reliable 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.520 enough service that people stop using it and it just 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:44.160 sort of begets even less service and fewer people using it, 0:16:44.480 --> 0:16:47.520 at what point does the m T a enter death 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.160 spiral that could have an even more profound effect on 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:54.200 the entire region. Look, I think it's an excellent question, 0:16:54.280 --> 0:16:57.960 and the Rooting Centers analysis took that into account. But 0:16:58.080 --> 0:17:00.680 you're right, Lisa, if we have to win rese for instance, 0:17:00.760 --> 0:17:04.119 kateways the time between subways and buses on weekends to 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.520 say fifteen or twenty minutes, a lot of New Yorkers 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:09.399 are going to determine that to get to the to 0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:12.240 the job, to school, to a medical appointment or whatever 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:14.919 they're doing, that it doesn't work for them any longer. 0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:18.320 And it does. It does feed on it succel it's success. 0:17:18.800 --> 0:17:21.680 Success in mass transit and growth in mass transit increases 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:25.440 ridership cutting it back also will cause some of our 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:27.439 customers to say, you know why, it's not worth it. 0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:30.120 We won't get their revenue, we won't get their service. 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:33.080 And that's just a terrible place for any transit agency 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.520 to be. Pet Boy, I would assume in your esteem 0:17:36.680 --> 0:17:39.920 career you seeing the death of New York City somewhere 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:42.960 between three and five times, you know, And folks, I 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:44.879 think a lot of people that know me know I 0:17:44.960 --> 0:17:47.480 was screaming after nine eleven that New York City would 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:49.439 not die. I believe a mayor of New York had 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:52.040 a little bit to do with that thought. Pet four, 0:17:52.160 --> 0:17:57.480 everybody's moving to the suburbs, what do you say to them? Well, look, 0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:00.800 not everybody's moving to the summer tom but he here's 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:04.600 what I'd say. Cities like New York, in London and Bombay, 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:08.320 Mumbai and others have survived, have gone through pandemics in 0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:12.080 the past. Obviously the nineteen eighteen nineteen nineteen flew in 0:18:12.160 --> 0:18:16.120 the United States, which obviously had a significant impact on 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:21.080 New York City. The the movement to urbanization across the 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:25.240 entire globe is a global phenomenon. Uh the rise of 0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:29.640 cities as centers of talent and intellectual capital. New York 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.359 City will be back. I'm bullish on New York City. 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:36.240 This is a particularly tough time, and twenty one or 0:18:36.640 --> 0:18:39.040 going to be tough years. But obviously with the great 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:43.280 news from Fiser and Maderna and and the vaccines and 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:46.000 the offing that will be terrific news, New York City 0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:48.720 will be back after getting through the dark days of 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.920 twenty and twenty one, no question in my mind, Mr Fourth, 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:53.920 thank you so much. Patrick Foyd with the m t A. 0:18:53.960 --> 0:19:00.359 He's chairman and chief executive. Let's get right to it 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:02.760 here on the pandemic, and this is definitive. There's lots 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:05.400 of people managing the message right now. That is something 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.200 Dr Jonathan Quick has never done. He's with the Rockefeller 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:12.920 Foundation and is definitive in thinking about epidemics. This book, 0:19:12.960 --> 0:19:16.240 The End of Epidemic, is truly the bible on these 0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.679 modern processes. Dr Quick, thank you so much for joining us. 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.960 How does a pandemic end? You and I really haven't 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:25.560 lived on. I mean there was a collar in sixty seven, 0:19:25.640 --> 0:19:30.159 I recall, but actually how does a pandemic end? So, 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:34.600 I mean it's basically like a forest fire, and it 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:37.480 either ends when it runs out of wood, which is 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:43.000 us humans. Or it ends when there is a a 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:47.040 response UM basically a dumping water all over it, which 0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:50.359 is what a UH safe and effective vaccine would do. 0:19:51.240 --> 0:19:53.399 And and those are the two ways that it that 0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.760 it can end. And right now, the good news is 0:19:56.800 --> 0:19:59.960 that we're we have seen um I think just remark 0:20:00.080 --> 0:20:03.119 cobled news on the vaccine side. UM. But at the 0:20:03.160 --> 0:20:07.680 same time, UH, we're letting that that forest fire run 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:10.320 uncontrolled in this country. And Dr Quick I say this 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:13.200 with great respect for all watching and listening that has 0:20:13.200 --> 0:20:16.560 suffered this personally, particularly the essential workers and those that 0:20:16.640 --> 0:20:20.840 have lost older loved ones. Is the reason it maybe 0:20:20.880 --> 0:20:26.040 doesn't feel as angry is April or May, because we've 0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:30.960 killed off so many old people. Is our pandemic demographic 0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:36.280 now different than it was in spring, Well, it is 0:20:36.400 --> 0:20:39.240 different than it was in the in the spring in 0:20:39.280 --> 0:20:44.280 the sense that UM, overall, we're seeing a fewer desper 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:49.760 case because it is become a pandemic across all all generations, 0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:53.880 and we're seeing more of the youth. But I mean 0:20:55.000 --> 0:20:58.440 the reality is that we still have tens of millions 0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.520 of people who are at risk. And UM, I think 0:21:02.560 --> 0:21:07.000 we need to understand the consequences of basic the inaction, 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:10.800 because it's it's not just the fact that we're on 0:21:11.520 --> 0:21:14.560 we're on a pathway to be to be um to 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:18.280 hit a death death of of nearly a half million 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:21.720 people by well over four hundred thou people by March 0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:24.080 if we don't do something. That's one part of it. 0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:28.480 The other is millions of people who who have had 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:33.000 COVID who are going to have the lingering consequences we 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:36.160 saw with the stars the first COVID, the one global 0:21:36.480 --> 0:21:38.560 in two thousand and three, and we're seeing it again 0:21:38.640 --> 0:21:42.840 today that perhaps a chord of the people have lingering disability. 0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:46.280 Not to mention the fact that letting this go out 0:21:46.280 --> 0:21:50.879 of control, um, it's people are not gonna feel safe 0:21:50.880 --> 0:21:54.400 going aren't. They're not gonna feel safe in schools. So UM, 0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:57.760 I think we have a real challenge by just letting 0:21:57.800 --> 0:22:01.439 it run wild and and in the channel, and we 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:04.920 know what to do and it doesn't involve crashing the economy. Well, 0:22:05.160 --> 0:22:07.520 hold on a second, because you say about the long 0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:10.679 term effects, you talk about how it's not just the deaths, 0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:13.840 it's that the prevalence could have Our ramifications far beyond 0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:16.520 even our comprehension. Now we have a quarter of a 0:22:16.560 --> 0:22:19.639 million deaths here in the United States. The real issue 0:22:19.720 --> 0:22:21.840 is we don't even know where people are getting the 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.680 virus at this point. Has track and trace died at 0:22:24.680 --> 0:22:28.199 this point given how pervasive COVID has become, Yeah, I 0:22:28.200 --> 0:22:31.320 mean the track of trace at this point is gonna 0:22:31.359 --> 0:22:35.879 be less important in the majority of places that that 0:22:35.960 --> 0:22:39.240 are having it. That's not true though, in in more 0:22:39.440 --> 0:22:43.960 focused settings like schools and workplaces, where we still have 0:22:44.040 --> 0:22:47.880 some opportunity. But overall, track and it's the key thing 0:22:48.359 --> 0:22:53.800 is a handful of of core actions. Everybody masks restrictive 0:22:53.840 --> 0:22:58.440 suspend dangerous indoor places, limit gatherings over ten, stay home 0:22:58.480 --> 0:23:02.679 of symptomatic. This is provide leave and government help support business. 0:23:02.800 --> 0:23:06.840 I mean, it's not complicated, and we can't choose. It's 0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:09.120 not like it's a menu you choose one or the other. 0:23:09.280 --> 0:23:12.879 What we know clearly from nineteen eighteen and again now 0:23:13.320 --> 0:23:16.240 is doing all of these things together until we have 0:23:16.359 --> 0:23:18.240 bent the curve, and we could do it, and we 0:23:18.280 --> 0:23:21.520 could do it without crashing the economy dr quick. This 0:23:21.600 --> 0:23:24.000