WEBVTT - Countering a Nasty Threat.  Mike Lyons talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>From the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington

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<v Speaker 1>Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Show Jetty Armstrong and Jetty Show.

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<v Speaker 1>President Biden is praising US intelligence workers while also warning

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<v Speaker 1>them not to underestimate Chinese President He is deadly earnest

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not becoming the most powerful military force in the

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<v Speaker 1>world as well as the largest and most prominent economy

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<v Speaker 1>in the world. Today, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin clarified the

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<v Speaker 1>Pentagon's position. You know, a conflict with China. We recognize

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<v Speaker 1>that we will compete. So we're gonna talk to Mike

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<v Speaker 1>Lions a little bit about China and other things. Mike

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<v Speaker 1>Lines is our go to military analysts, served with all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of military organizations in both the United States and

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<v Speaker 1>Europe throughout his career. Um was commander during Operation Desert

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<v Speaker 1>Shield and Desert Storm, Award of the Bronze Star for

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<v Speaker 1>his actions in combat. Also has a Bachelor Science degree

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<v Speaker 1>from West Point and we love talking to him about

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<v Speaker 1>all things military. Mike leins, welcome to the show. A

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<v Speaker 1>great to be back with you. You know, before we

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<v Speaker 1>get into the details of the military stuff, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>more that's more technical and things you can predict how

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<v Speaker 1>much of how much of military strategy is trying to

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<v Speaker 1>read somebody's personality like president and I shouldn't even call

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<v Speaker 1>him president, dictator she and trying to figure out is

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<v Speaker 1>he the kind of guy that would try to move on,

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<v Speaker 1>move on Taiwan or not? Yeah, it's you know, rational

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<v Speaker 1>leader theory. It happens all the time in foreign policy

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<v Speaker 1>and how diplomats try to you know, when they put

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<v Speaker 1>together their deals. So, but from the military's perspective, you

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<v Speaker 1>have to consider all possibilities from the worst possible things.

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<v Speaker 1>He launches a first strike nuclear attack too, he sits

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<v Speaker 1>back and does nothing and lets us basically wind up

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<v Speaker 1>our military and put it into position where it can

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<v Speaker 1>do something. So the military has got a tougher job

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<v Speaker 1>because again has to take in all those scenarios where

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<v Speaker 1>when you're sitting across the table as a diplomat you

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<v Speaker 1>just have to look at and say, well, as he rational,

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<v Speaker 1>is he going to be rational and trying negotiate from there?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you comfortable making a read on him or are

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<v Speaker 1>you not comfortable without having more information? Oh? No, I

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<v Speaker 1>think he's definitely very aggressive moving forward. I mean, what

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<v Speaker 1>he's done in the South China. See in the past

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<v Speaker 1>five years, he's you know, built missile basis. He didn't

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<v Speaker 1>build condos. He's not moving people out there into those places.

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<v Speaker 1>Another report came out in the New York Times that

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<v Speaker 1>shows nuclear sights and some of their deserts in the

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<v Speaker 1>in the western part of China that will clearly threaten Europe.

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<v Speaker 1>These i cb ms fundamentally can be can hit the

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<v Speaker 1>United States. Um, they need to be part of any

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<v Speaker 1>future Russia US nuclear proliferation Uh, you know treaty uh

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<v Speaker 1>that that that have that have since expired. Right now,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean there's real threat that that there's an arms

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<v Speaker 1>race taking place. And it's not just the US and Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not the U S and China and Russia. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>since you brought up Russian and we'll get back to China. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>they announced last week that they've got a supersonic weapon

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<v Speaker 1>that that that that that they say are our technology

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<v Speaker 1>can't stop a missile and a new plane that matches

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<v Speaker 1>our best stuff. Are you worried about that? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not. I mean those are kind of fire once

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<v Speaker 1>and in some ways fire and forget that none of

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<v Speaker 1>them are really into the world weapons. I mean, the

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<v Speaker 1>existential threats still remains the undred nuclear tip warheads that

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<v Speaker 1>could be fired from their their launch sites inside of Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>They could decide to move their people into two bunkers

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<v Speaker 1>to try to prevent anything that would happen on the

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<v Speaker 1>way back if we decided to respond. The existential threat

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<v Speaker 1>is really that as opposed to any kind of one

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<v Speaker 1>of one or two one off weapons they might create.

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<v Speaker 1>It might create havoc or so, and will eventually come

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<v Speaker 1>up some way to fight against it, but it can't

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<v Speaker 1>be mass produced and it won't be something that will

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<v Speaker 1>affect over the long run miclines military analysts. So back

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<v Speaker 1>to China. It troubled me. I was watching the opening

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<v Speaker 1>ceremony the Olympics with my son, and they don't call

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan Taiwan in the Olympics. They call it the Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>Republic of Taipei or something like that, And I thought, wow,

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<v Speaker 1>So the world bends over backwards to uh to go

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<v Speaker 1>with the language that China wants because they don't consider

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan a country. Yeah, the more you see things out

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<v Speaker 1>there from project that this is where this great you

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<v Speaker 1>know nation battle is going to take place. Um, there

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<v Speaker 1>was a recent war game that took place but last

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<v Speaker 1>year again US versus China over Time one. It took

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<v Speaker 1>place well into the future ten years, and we got

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<v Speaker 1>our butts kicked in it. And you know, again, war

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<v Speaker 1>games are it happens all the time and it's not

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<v Speaker 1>that not that big a deal in some ways. But

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<v Speaker 1>what's the big deal is that they released the results

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<v Speaker 1>of it. Usually these are classified and they keep these

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<v Speaker 1>things in close hold. Um. And that's because we kind

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<v Speaker 1>of fought the normal way we normally fight, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>we kind of wind up our military. And you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the last two wars we wound up. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>the Desert Storm, we took five months, we brought all

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<v Speaker 1>the troops there, and even Iraq we wound up in

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<v Speaker 1>the troops there. China's not gonna let any of that happen.

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<v Speaker 1>China's gonna come after us, initially first with a cyber

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<v Speaker 1>attack that will knock all our command and control out,

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<v Speaker 1>and then they'll they're gonna go after our carriers. They

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<v Speaker 1>go right through our navy right away. So this was

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<v Speaker 1>no match in this war game that took place in

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<v Speaker 1>the Air Force run. And maybe you they didn't lean

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<v Speaker 1>towards the Navy like they should have. But but I

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<v Speaker 1>think there's no question China is gonna fight differently than

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<v Speaker 1>anyone we haven't seen since, you know, really the Second

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<v Speaker 1>World War. Wow, that is troubling stuff. So I taken

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of podcasts about this stuff, and um, it

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<v Speaker 1>seems to me that the Biden administration, the Obama administration

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<v Speaker 1>kind of tried it, and Trump tried it, and Biden's

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<v Speaker 1>going further with it, just like saying, Okay, the hell

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<v Speaker 1>of the Middle East, we gotta focus on China. And

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<v Speaker 1>so getting into position, like you call it winding up, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>getting into positions so that there's a deterrent that China want.

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<v Speaker 1>The best way to win the war the battle for

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan is to make it clear to China that it

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't be easy to do. So we're trying to focus

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<v Speaker 1>that direction. Is at what we're doing exactly. There's an

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<v Speaker 1>article written by a congressman and you're out talk to

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<v Speaker 1>me about you know, prepared now for this war that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to take place in the Pacific. It's not theory.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's really gonna be. And you know, again

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<v Speaker 1>in Desert Storm and in the first I Rock, we

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<v Speaker 1>found up, we had the opportunity to move hundreds of

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<v Speaker 1>thousands of troops to the region. Um, they did nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll take a quick story. We were in August of

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<v Speaker 1>sitting in the conference room watching the twenty fourth Evertry

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<v Speaker 1>Division come off their boats, their ships and and being

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<v Speaker 1>deployed inside of Saudi Arabia. How the Iraqis attacked them

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<v Speaker 1>and destroyed that division while they were in the port. Basically, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the Middle East looks completely different and would have taken

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<v Speaker 1>a Sunday, say four years to get back a foothold on.

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<v Speaker 1>So they just didn't do anything. And that's the point.

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<v Speaker 1>The Iraqis had that capability, but they just did. Call

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<v Speaker 1>it God's call whatever you want to do it. But

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<v Speaker 1>the Chinese will. The Chinese will do that. They'll they'll

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<v Speaker 1>go after They'll sink a carrier with five thousand sailors

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<v Speaker 1>on it and go on to the next one. They

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<v Speaker 1>won't think anything of it. And I think that's that's

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<v Speaker 1>the difference between this enemy versus previous enemies we've had

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<v Speaker 1>over the past thirty years. While in their ability with

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<v Speaker 1>their population and just their their their attitude, their nationalism,

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<v Speaker 1>uh their ability to absorb losses is anything unlike you know,

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<v Speaker 1>certainly anything of the Western powers would do. Yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean again, the first attack comes cyber, they're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>blind us, they'll shut our command and control down. That

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<v Speaker 1>where this war game failed was they did that. And

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<v Speaker 1>we have a lot of joint things. We have a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of sexy technology that kind of connects a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of dots and you know, if you find a target

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<v Speaker 1>on one side of the battlefield and then it allows

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<v Speaker 1>that to be communicated to the group that's over there. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>if you shut that all that stuff down, that side

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't see it, um, then the threats are just they

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<v Speaker 1>just keep magnifying. And that that's what this war game showed.

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<v Speaker 1>And again the fact that they released this tells me

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<v Speaker 1>that they're concerned about it um and that they're going

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<v Speaker 1>to start moving and changing certain things and and and

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<v Speaker 1>bring different people into different leaders in because we're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have to fight a very different war like likely within

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<v Speaker 1>the next ten years. And I hate to stay that.

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<v Speaker 1>I got a son of the Navy, believe me, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>not I'm not looking to advocate for that. But this

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<v Speaker 1>is what this is, what the world is as as

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<v Speaker 1>it currently is outlined, and who knows, maybe we won't

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<v Speaker 1>even fight for time wine when the time comes, who knows?

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<v Speaker 1>Who knows what the exactly? Yeah, and that the world

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<v Speaker 1>would look different the day we make that decision. Yeah

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<v Speaker 1>for sure. Um yeah, we want to be this specific power.

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<v Speaker 1>We want to be this power. We're gonna have to

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<v Speaker 1>reallocate a lot of those resources towards these strategic weapons.

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<v Speaker 1>We're gonna have to do better in space. We're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have to become more resilient in our in our cyber

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<v Speaker 1>and and we're gonna have to have a navy that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be able to protect air field and protected

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<v Speaker 1>carriers from what's going to be a very nasty Chinese

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<v Speaker 1>threat of missiles and all kinds of technology that they

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<v Speaker 1>have that other our enemies didn't have in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>It's so hard to wrap your head around. I think

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<v Speaker 1>for most people, the idea of a country attacking is

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<v Speaker 1>it's just it's been so long and it's been so

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<v Speaker 1>unlikely most of everybody's lives that it just seems like, well,

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<v Speaker 1>nobody would ever do that. We're the big bad you know,

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<v Speaker 1>there were there were the big bad bully. Nobody would

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<v Speaker 1>ever do that. But the time will come I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>the history of the world is the history of the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and the time will come when somebody takes a shot. Yeah, Jack,

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<v Speaker 1>And you're right. And the bottom line is, this is

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<v Speaker 1>still in away game for us, right, I mean, we

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<v Speaker 1>still have to deploy these resources eight nine, twelve time

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<v Speaker 1>zones from from here in order to get that done. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And but the Chinese again, or or the type that

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<v Speaker 1>could do that and could reach us here in the

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<v Speaker 1>US and could reach us on the West coast and

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<v Speaker 1>the East coast and go after our cities. Are we

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<v Speaker 1>willing to trade off Taiwan for New York City, for

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<v Speaker 1>Atlanta for Los Angeles San Francisco. I'm not sure. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't know what an American president does. We made bad

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<v Speaker 1>assumptions in this in this war game. We didn't assume

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<v Speaker 1>that they would nobody would use nuclear weapons. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's a bad assumstances good The newly Midway has got

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<v Speaker 1>a great example of what happened with the Japanese. Tried

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<v Speaker 1>to G two and figure out what's gonna happen at

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<v Speaker 1>Midway before and they made the Japanese American side fight

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<v Speaker 1>a certain way, and they fought. They didn't fight the

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<v Speaker 1>way the Americans were going they wanted to fight because

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<v Speaker 1>they were losing and they just didn't want to see

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<v Speaker 1>it that way. And that's the question here. We have

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<v Speaker 1>to become much more open as to what what's the

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<v Speaker 1>realm of possibilities and be ready for that that scenario. Man,

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<v Speaker 1>that's fascinating stuff. I'm just the kind of guy. I

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<v Speaker 1>could talk to you about that all day long, but

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<v Speaker 1>we are out of time. Mic Lions. We always appreciate

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<v Speaker 1>your time. We'll link your Twitter account to ours end.

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<v Speaker 1>People should follow you. Great check, Thanks very much, thank you. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you talk about something that we can't imagine. We just

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<v Speaker 1>can't imagine that another country would actually ever use nuclear weapons. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna happen someday, and you have to be prepared

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<v Speaker 1>for it. And you know, every indication from Winnie the

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<v Speaker 1>Pooh over there in China is that he's held bent on,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, becoming the dominant force in the world. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>what's the old saying when somebody you know tells you

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<v Speaker 1>who they are, believe him that sort of thing, or

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<v Speaker 1>shows you who they are, believe him. That's what she's doing.

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<v Speaker 1>He's showing, He's telling everybody, he's showing the world who

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<v Speaker 1>he is. We need to believe him