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Speaker 1: Welcome to today's edition of the Clay Travis and Buck

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Speaker 1: Sexton Show podcast.

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Speaker 2: Welcome in Clay Travis Buck Sexton Show. We've got a

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Speaker 2: fun time coming for all of you. Eric Hovedy, who

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Speaker 2: is running for the Senate from Wisconsin, will join us

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Speaker 2: in the next hour. Ryan Gerdusky at the top of

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Speaker 2: the third hour to break down all of the data

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Speaker 2: and analytics as we sit six months away from election day.

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Speaker 2: But we begin today with the what I would say

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Speaker 2: is farcicle continuation of the New York City case against

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. We have had Stormy Daniels on the witness

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Speaker 2: stand and absolutely insanely ridiculous continuation of the sham law

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Speaker 2: fair that has been taking place in New York City.

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Speaker 2: And before we get into Stormy Daniels and what she

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Speaker 2: might have said to me, the story here Buck and

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Speaker 2: we talked about this quite a lot yesterday with Andy

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Speaker 2: McCarthy is they haven't to me, really proven any criminality

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Speaker 2: on Donald Trump's behalf. And I'm gonna lay into that

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Speaker 2: in a moment, But you know that I like to

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Speaker 2: look at the odds markets you can gamble on basically anything,

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Speaker 2: and the odds that there is going to be a

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Speaker 2: felony conviction of Donald Trump have dropped to seventy five

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Speaker 2: percent likely. That sounds still like a lot, but it

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Speaker 2: means and the chances here have now, according to the

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Speaker 2: gambling markets moved up to a quarter that there is

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Speaker 2: no conviction at all. And I think that's because people

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Speaker 2: are paying attention here and again it comes down to

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Speaker 2: the jury and how well they apply the law. But

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Speaker 2: they haven't actually proven anything. And I want to play

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Speaker 2: a couple of cuts here cut. Here is Trump speaking

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Speaker 2: before he went in today using sorry cut three left

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Speaker 2: wing media reports about how the trial isn't going well

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Speaker 2: for prosecutors.

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Speaker 1: This is him reading cut three.

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Speaker 3: Some of the statements made about this witch hunt On

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Speaker 3: CNN Fake New CNN Michael Barre said the proof of

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Speaker 3: falsifying records has not been accomplished. On Good Morning America,

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Speaker 3: they said, we heard that expense fayments to lawyers are

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Speaker 3: legal expenses. Also, NBC Today show the challengers that there

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Speaker 3: is no smoking gun, no email on or tape to

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Speaker 3: prove the president's in tenth they don't have a way

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Speaker 3: to prove that.

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Speaker 1: That's NBC Today's show.

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Speaker 3: And then Fox News Kadi Cha Casski said that the

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Speaker 3: gag order is unconstitutional, which of course it is.

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Speaker 2: I think all that's true, Buck, and I will play

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Speaker 2: a couple of those cuts that he referenced here in

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Speaker 2: a moment. But ultimately, I think what even left wing

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Speaker 2: political commentators who have some legal basis and knowledge are

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Speaker 2: having to recognize is what we've told you for some time.

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Speaker 2: This is an incredibly weak case. But even within that context,

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Speaker 2: prosecutors are not doing a very good job actually proving

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Speaker 2: a crime was committed here.

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Speaker 1: Well, I think it really does matter to look.

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Speaker 4: At the language we say this when it comes to immigration,

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Speaker 4: for example, illegal immigration. Right now, they want you to

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Speaker 4: say newly arrived, and before that it was undocumented, and

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Speaker 4: before that it was illegal immigrant, and before that it

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Speaker 4: was legal alien. And they've been winning the argument by

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Speaker 4: changing the language.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: That's true on many things. The left is unfortunately better

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Speaker 4: at this than we tend to be, because there's something

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Speaker 4: underhanded about it. I mean, they're shifting language without addressing

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Speaker 4: the argument. But I just think, Clay, we talked about

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Speaker 4: a hush money trial. A hush money isn't a crime, correct,

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Speaker 4: So that's not you know, it's almost like saying the

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Speaker 4: stormy Daniels alleged affair trial. Well, hold on a second.

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Speaker 4: An affair not that you know, it's not a good thing,

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Speaker 4: but an affair is not illegal. So it's not an

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Speaker 4: affair trial. It's not a hush money trial. It is

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Speaker 4: a business records trial. And even when people say it

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Speaker 4: was it's about a campaign finance violation. The campaign finance

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Speaker 4: violation component of it is assumed right. The falsification of

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Speaker 4: the business record allegedly occurred so that it wouldn't get

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Speaker 4: into the realm of a reportable campaign finance issue. And

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Speaker 4: therefore there's a broader scheme here, which is how he

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Speaker 4: turns it into a felony, and that this is legal alchemy.

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Speaker 4: This is turning a nothing burger into a nothing burger

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Speaker 4: with cheese.

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Speaker 1: And we are seeing this.

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Speaker 4: All all unfold before our very eyes in a way

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Speaker 4: that once again I think Democrats you're starting they're starting

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Speaker 4: to be concerned about the outcome here. You're seeing some

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Speaker 4: of the legal analysts. There are legal analysts who go

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Speaker 4: on MSNBC, for example, whose only goal is to say

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Speaker 4: whatever they think the brainwash lib audience wants. There are

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Speaker 4: some who want to do that, but also don't want

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Speaker 4: to look like total jackasses and say things that make

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Speaker 4: a fool of them when the facts actually come out.

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Speaker 1: There aren't many of them.

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Speaker 4: But there are a few. You've already started to see them.

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Speaker 4: I think Clay Hedging a little bit saying, Oh, I

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Speaker 4: wish this was really about the January sixth case and

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Speaker 4: not this. Oh, hold on a second, I thought that

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Speaker 4: Alvin Bragg was, you know, the new sheriff in town

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Speaker 4: to get justice.

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Speaker 1: Uh, this is slowly.

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't say it's falling apart, but there are there

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Speaker 4: are cracks in the wall here.

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Speaker 1: Something's happening.

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Speaker 2: And remember the only reason this is not a misdemeanor

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Speaker 2: is because they're claiming that there was a second crime

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Speaker 2: that was committed while not necessarily really claiming and proving

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Speaker 2: the second crime, which feels to me like legally untenable terrain,

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Speaker 2: which is why I said yesterday, I think this is

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Speaker 2: going to get tossed. And here's the other thing that

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Speaker 2: I think is well. Well, first of all, let's play

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Speaker 2: that cut that Trump referenced. I believe it is cut five.

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Speaker 2: This is Attorney Michael Moore, not the filmmaker, saying that

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Speaker 2: proof of Trump falsifying records hasn't been accomplished yet.

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Speaker 5: Cut testim it was important because it starts to connect

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Speaker 5: some of the dots, and that is, you know, can

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Speaker 5: you actually put a pin in Donald Trump's hand? Can

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Speaker 5: you put a check in his hand? Under his signature?

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Speaker 5: But that really is not the crux of the government's case.

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Speaker 5: The case deals with heavy falsified records as it relates

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Speaker 5: to the federal election law, and so that has not

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Speaker 5: been accomplished yet.

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Speaker 2: I think that's important. Also, Bara, I might be mispronouncing

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Speaker 2: his name, Burrara, long time SDN Y prosecutor.

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Speaker 1: Right, he was high up and he was the US

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Speaker 1: attorney for the Southern District of New York. Yes, here

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Speaker 1: he is saying, you know, this is not the crime

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Speaker 1: of the century.

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Speaker 6: I think based on what happened today and how uninspiring

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Speaker 6: the crossing examination was. Because the documents largely speak for themselves.

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Speaker 6: The prosecution has basically proven the basic case, which is

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Speaker 6: falsification of business records, which people can argue is or

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Speaker 6: is not the crime of the century.

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Speaker 1: It's a misdemeanor.

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Speaker 6: The New York law recognized it as a misdemeanor, and

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Speaker 6: we can argue and see how the evidence comes in

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Speaker 6: with respect to the next phase, which is whether that

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Speaker 6: can be accelerated into a felony if it was done

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Speaker 6: for the purposes of concealing or furthering some other crime,

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Speaker 6: an election law crime or a tax crime.

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Speaker 1: But the basic fundamental.

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Speaker 6: Case, the elements of which were laid out in crystallized

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Speaker 6: form today in court, I think we're made.

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Speaker 2: Out Okay, So what I would say buck is and

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Speaker 2: this is what we talked about a little bit with

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Speaker 2: Andy McCarthy. The more I read, and obviously we can't

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Speaker 2: listen to it because a lot of this is taking

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Speaker 2: place while we're on air and we're not able.

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Speaker 1: To get audio.

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Speaker 2: But to me, Trump has a really strong argument here

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Speaker 2: that the reason he paid Stormy Daniels was not for

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Speaker 2: election related reasons, but to try to avoid family embarrassment.

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Speaker 2: And he did that already for someone who was a

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Speaker 2: dorman claiming that he had an illegitimate child. I think

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Speaker 2: most people out there who were married, whether it's true

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Speaker 2: or not, would not want this story out there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, But I also think we shouldn't lose

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Speaker 4: sight of the fact that prosecutorial discretion is a very

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Speaker 4: powerful tool and it should have been used here with

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Speaker 4: all the facts of the case presented to do exactly

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Speaker 4: what the federal government did, which is say, there's nothing

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Speaker 4: to do here, there's nothing to see here, there's no

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Speaker 4: dan image, there's no crime, there's no harm, there's no loss,

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Speaker 4: and there's no argument otherwise.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I mean, this whole thing is an absurdity.

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Speaker 4: And I do think we're at the place now, we're

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Speaker 4: the same way that we to just keep it honest

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Speaker 4: and keep it real.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 4: You know, we've woar gamed what happens if he's found guilty.

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Speaker 4: Will they send him to prison? Will they put him

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Speaker 4: under house arrest? And we've talked this through and we

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Speaker 4: don't have the answers, but we're looking at what the

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Speaker 4: possible pathways are, what the outcomes are here. I think

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Speaker 4: we should also start to think about what happens if

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Speaker 4: they actually get a not guilty verdict?

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, And what does that do to the other prosecutions,

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Speaker 1: which are clearly political? What does that do to the

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Speaker 1: media arts you mean not guilty or you mean that

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Speaker 1: it is just a mistrial, like I, oh, not guilty?

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Speaker 2: If they got it not guilty verdict? If Trump won

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Speaker 2: this trial, twelve jurors said he didn't do this. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think there's still is z zero percent chance of

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Speaker 2: that because I think.

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Speaker 4: Zero percent, yeah, and I'm not I wouldn't even say

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Speaker 4: there's a zero percent chance that I wake up tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: So I think zero percent is a little too strong.

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Speaker 2: There's there is no way twelve New York City jurors,

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Speaker 2: it's possible to see a jury that doesn't hate Trump.

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Speaker 1: What I say, he's guilty, I think what we have seen.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but we've seen how this plays out if one

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Speaker 4: person says he's guilty and everyone else is like, this

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Speaker 4: is a sham, This is a scam. Look, I think

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Speaker 4: this is a one in ten shot. I'm not trying

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Speaker 4: to get too crazy. Okay, I did like twenty thousand.

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Speaker 1: No, I think, yes, it's zero. It rounds down to zero.

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Speaker 4: This is even if they hate Trump. People who are

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Speaker 4: you know they're showing up to these core proceedings.

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Speaker 2: There's you are way too optimistic all of a sudden

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Speaker 2: for that.

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Speaker 1: I think I think it's ninety percent that Trump is

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Speaker 1: going to get convicted. And do you think I'm too optimistic?

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Speaker 4: I'm just saying no, I used to be ninety nine, Okay,

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Speaker 4: I used to be ninety nine I would make I.

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Speaker 2: Think there's a twenty five percent chance all twelve won't

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Speaker 2: say guilty, but for all twelve to say not guilty,

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Speaker 2: I think is around down to zero, like one in

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Speaker 2: twenty thousand or something like that. Now, I think there's

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Speaker 2: a twenty five percent chance ish maybe even higher, that

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Speaker 2: there's at least one journey who will refuse to say

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Speaker 2: he's guilty. I'll just tell you this.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I saw what was going on in the

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Speaker 4: States with Colorado and Maine, and my inclination was so

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Speaker 4: do Mayor and Catanji Brown Jackson are the most left

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Speaker 4: wing and clearly politicized jurists who have ever sat on

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Speaker 4: the Supreme Court. And even they said, guys, this is

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Speaker 4: too gross.

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Speaker 1: You can't do.

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Speaker 4: This because of what it does to the system, A

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Speaker 4: system that even the craziest leftists want to yes corrupt,

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Speaker 4: but use for their own purposes down the line. This

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Speaker 4: trial is such a joke that I do think the

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Speaker 4: outlier possibilities need to be considered. I'm not betting you

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Speaker 4: a steak on this one because I just like collecting

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Speaker 4: steaks from you. I don't like it to go the

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Speaker 4: other way. Trump I'm merely saying, guilty verdict. It would

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Speaker 4: they would, it would, I would be glorious. I don't

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Speaker 4: even know what they would do on MSNBC. I think

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Speaker 4: they might just in the network effectively. I mean, a

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Speaker 4: hung jury would be is a win. It's a win

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Speaker 4: for sure, and it's pretty darn close, uh in terms

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Speaker 4: of the effect. I don't think the effect afterwards of

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Speaker 4: a not guilty versus a hung jury matters to Trump

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Speaker 4: all that much under the circumstances. But I'm just saying

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Speaker 4: this is it's so weak, and now we're now we're

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Speaker 4: not able to see the court proceedings, so everything is

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Speaker 4: what's being reported on. But this, this is the honestly

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Speaker 4: the dumbest criminal trial I have ever heard of in

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Speaker 4: my life. I've never heard of someone being prosecuted for

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Speaker 4: a felony for less than Donald Trump is right now.

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Speaker 4: I cannot And I was in counter terrorism cases where

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Speaker 4: people lied to the FEDS about things and they got

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Speaker 4: jammed up, and people did financial structuring and they got

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Speaker 4: jammed up, and you know, I've seen some stuff that's

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Speaker 4: pretty borderline. This is the most absurd felony prosecution of

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Speaker 4: anyone that I can think of and they're doing it

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Speaker 4: to a leading presidential candidate in the election year. It's

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Speaker 4: so gross that you have to think that there are

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Speaker 4: some possibilities here that people wake up. It's so wrong

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Speaker 4: that I think you have to leave open that chance.

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Speaker 1: But again, the odds are with you. But then again,

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Speaker 1: how did your horse do there, mister odds guy? Horse

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Speaker 1: lost by like a head.

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Speaker 2: I mean it was a three way tie and it

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Speaker 2: was a ten to one payout that I almost hit on.

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Speaker 2: So carry had some had some good success. I think

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Speaker 2: she won the most, went like three for three on

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Speaker 2: bat out at the Kentucky Derby.

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Speaker 4: So I should I should just like her run the

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Speaker 4: stock portfolio. Anyway, we'll see. We'll take some of your

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Speaker 4: calls too. And by the way, our good friend Christy

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Speaker 4: Nome went on with our good friend Jesse Waters last night.

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Speaker 4: I really think that she's trying to light herself on

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Speaker 4: fire at this point. I watched the interview live and

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Speaker 4: I just thought to myself, does her staff hater?

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Speaker 1: What is going on here?

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Speaker 2: We'll have some more fun ridiculously with that as well.

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Speaker 2: But I want to tell you I was just out

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Speaker 2: in Seattle and I spoke at Hillsdale's big event out there,

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Speaker 2: and I sat next to doctor Larry Arn, who runs Hillsdale,

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Speaker 2: and I got to tell you, as the father of

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Speaker 2: three kids, I thought to myself, I would be ecstatic

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Speaker 2: if one of my boys ended up going to Hillsdale College,

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Speaker 2: because you know what they do.

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Speaker 1: They do something radical.

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Speaker 2: They actually teach them and give them an education, hold

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Speaker 2: them accountable, make them work. And the kids coming out

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Speaker 2: of Hillsdale are kicking ass all over the country doing

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Speaker 2: so many different great things. And you can read about

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Speaker 2: the battles that Hillsdale is fighting in Imprimus. It's their

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Speaker 2: free digestive life liberty that goes to more than six

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Speaker 2: and a half million homes. In businesses, Imprimus will give

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Speaker 2: you a smart constitutional commentary from people like Christopher Rufo,

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Speaker 2: Victor Davis Hansen, Heather MacDonald and doctor Larry Arn, who

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Speaker 2: I sat next to an actual doctor, by the way,

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Speaker 2: unlike doctor Jill Biden. You can receive a free subscription

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Speaker 2: at clayanbuck for Hillsdale dot com right now, no cost,

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Speaker 2: no obligation. Hillsdale produces and mails and Primus as part

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Speaker 2: of its educational mission on behalf of Liberty. Sign up

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Speaker 2: today at clayanbuckfo Hillsdale dot com.

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Speaker 1: The campus protest.

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Speaker 4: Let's take a look at the latest with hoes the

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Speaker 4: Biden base out on college campuses, and this is still ongoing.

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Speaker 4: There are now, I think a lot of people who

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Speaker 4: are wondering, will they try to disrupt graduation ceremony even

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Speaker 4: if they have been cleared out? Also, will they do

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Speaker 4: anything at the Chicago DNC, the Democratic National Convention, which

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Speaker 4: will be this summer. Certainly possible, and that would harken

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Speaker 4: back to sixty eight and I think that would be

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Speaker 4: a bad look for the Democrats, but who knows. And

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Speaker 4: then there's some other feelings play that I wanted to

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Speaker 4: get into here, or some sense of what's happening from

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Speaker 4: those who were watching this whole thing playoff. First of all,

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Speaker 4: as I mentioned the situation with the Israel Hamas war,

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Speaker 4: Israel is poised to go into Rafa and it's the

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Speaker 4: last bastard in the last holdout area of Hamas in

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Speaker 4: the very southern portion of Gaza, and there's concern.

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Speaker 7: Now.

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Speaker 4: I think they are negotiations that are happening, and there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of politics about this. Keep in mind, Moss

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Speaker 4: could have ended this a long time ago. Amas could

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Speaker 4: have stopped all of this, Hamas chooses not to stop it.

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Speaker 4: Hamas still has hostages. There are many questions, for a

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Speaker 4: tragic how many of those hostages, including there are some

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Speaker 4: Americans held hostage, are still alive. I think we're going

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Speaker 4: to find that the answer to that is tragically far

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Speaker 4: lower than would be expected if Hamas was not run

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Speaker 4: by barbarous, violent thugs, which it is. And so that's

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Speaker 4: all ongoing in the background. The Biden administration. There's now

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Speaker 4: back and forth over whether they delayed this arm shipment

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Speaker 4: of the Israelis intentionally or not. It certainly looked like

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Speaker 4: some kind of a win for the protesters. Okay, now

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Speaker 4: we'll get to the other part of this, which is

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Speaker 4: that there are a lot of as much as we

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Speaker 4: focus on the crazy Bolsheviks of higher education, and there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of that going on. You know, there's an

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Speaker 4: Axios poll clear that just came out that had the

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Speaker 4: following numbers, and I think it's a reminder that while

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Speaker 4: there's far too much craziness on the campus and the

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Speaker 4: professors are overwhelmingly nuts, not all. There's some great conservative

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Speaker 4: professors and there's some great campuses with nothing but conservative professors, right,

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Speaker 4: I mean, Clay, You've spoke to Hillsdale recently, But the

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Speaker 4: overwhelming majority of professors, certainly in the liberal arts, are

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Speaker 4: nuts and and go along with this stuff and are

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Speaker 4: a part of you know, BLM and pro hamas Er,

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Speaker 4: you know, down with Israel and all this, all this stuff,

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Speaker 4: all the stuff that goes together, climate change, all this.

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Speaker 1: Trump is going to destroy the world. But there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of normal.

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Speaker 4: People on campus still, or at least more normal. Sixty

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Speaker 4: seven percent, according to the Saxio's poll, say occupying campus

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Speaker 4: buildings is unacceptable. Ninety percent say blocking pro Israel students

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Speaker 4: from parts of campus is unacceptable fifty eight percent majority.

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Speaker 4: But I think it should be bigger, say refusing a

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Speaker 4: university's order to disperse is unacceptable, that number should be higher.

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Speaker 4: But when you have almost seventy percent recognizing that the

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Speaker 4: occupation of buildings is just you can't do that, and

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Speaker 4: ninety percent saying you can't tell Jewish students you're not

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Speaker 4: welcome in this part of campus, how about ten percent

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Speaker 4: of people are okay with telling Jewish students you're not

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Speaker 4: welcome in this part of campus. That actually seems a

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Speaker 4: little bit alarming to me. And one hundred percent of

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Speaker 4: them are voting Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Just I mean this is entirely I mean that's like

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Speaker 2: ninety percent is good. But like restricting anybody based on

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Speaker 2: their ethnicity, or their gender or their sexuality to be

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Speaker 2: able to walk through campus, that's so a little bit

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Speaker 2: ominous to me, and I think speaks to that ten

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Speaker 2: percent base that's out there that's doing this.

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Speaker 1: But some of that is encouraging, as you're laying out.

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Speaker 1: So this is.

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Speaker 4: Mario Torres speaking. He is a custodian at janitor. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I think janitor is an entirely honorable profession. I don't

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Speaker 4: know why we have to play custodian. Jenner is the

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Speaker 4: same thing. Janitor as every bit as honorable profession as custodian,

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Speaker 4: et cetera. But fine, I'll use the term custodian just

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Speaker 4: you know, I think it's a little unnecessary. But the

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Speaker 4: Columbia University custodian Mario Torres saying that the school should

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Speaker 4: have done more to protect them and that the school, really,

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Speaker 4: Columbia University, was kind of asleep at the wheel for

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Speaker 4: this whole thing.

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Speaker 7: Play one, is Columbia going to retaliate and find a

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Speaker 7: reason to fire me. Is is someone going to come

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Speaker 7: after me? We are taking a big risk, you know,

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Speaker 7: doing this.

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Speaker 8: But I I think that I think that they failed,

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Speaker 8: they failed us, and I think that's that's the that's

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Speaker 8: the bigger story. They failed us. They should have done

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Speaker 8: more to protect us, and they did it.

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Speaker 1: They absolutely didn't Clay.

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Speaker 4: There are people in this process who have been treated

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Speaker 4: as this is unfolded really badly, and there's all this

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Speaker 4: concern of, oh, what about are we being too harsh

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Speaker 4: with the protesters? And you know, what about the people

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Speaker 4: who have been under lunatic threat from the occupations that

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Speaker 4: are happening, or the people that want to just go

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Speaker 4: to class and they've paid money to be there and

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Speaker 4: they want to have a normal experience at the end

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Speaker 4: of their school year. Like there are a lot of

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Speaker 4: victims here. The protesters are not victims. They've created this

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Speaker 4: whole thing themselves.

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Speaker 1: And really there seems to be this idea.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure you saw that UCLA has gone remote all

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Speaker 2: week because people aren't able to move around on campus

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Speaker 2: freely and safely. GW which is where I went in Washington,

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Speaker 2: d C, has been begging for the Metro Police in

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Speaker 2: DC to come and clean up the protesters, but the

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Speaker 2: mayor of DC, Muriel Bowser, will not allow it to occur.

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Speaker 1: All of this is chaotic.

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Speaker 2: The question is at this point, I think will it

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Speaker 2: occur around found the Democrat National Convention in August in Chicago?

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Speaker 1: Because if it does?

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Speaker 2: And I think you said, you're you're not optimistic or

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Speaker 2: maybe optimist or a word, but you're you're not of

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Speaker 2: the belief that it will because you think Democrats altern it.

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Speaker 4: Can I tell you why I think that is? Yeah,

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Speaker 4: because I think that these are these are useful idiots.

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Speaker 4: And remember there's many tiers, as many layers here. You

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Speaker 4: have the useful idiots who are you know, a junior

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Speaker 4: at Columbia or you know, a senior at GW or whatever,

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Speaker 4: and they actually believe that this has some.

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Speaker 1: Merit and they're the good guys here.

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Speaker 4: But there's also the professional agitators and protesters who have

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Speaker 4: been in the mix. We know this because they've been arrested.

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Speaker 4: We have their mugshots and they're like, you know, they're

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Speaker 4: in their fifties. They're like retirees who are showing up

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Speaker 4: to protest this. I mean, it's clear, they're not undergrads.

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Speaker 4: And uh, what you have I think is going to

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Speaker 4: be the Soros funded left is going to recognize that

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Speaker 4: trying to foment these protests that the DNC is problematic,

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Speaker 4: is not helping the cause ultimately, because Biden will either

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Speaker 4: either give them the policies they want or bend the

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Speaker 4: knee if enough pressure is on him to be a leftist.

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Speaker 4: So they want him to be president. They do not

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Speaker 4: want Donald Trump to be president. So that's what they

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Speaker 4: show up in Milwaukee. Where will be that might yes,

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Speaker 4: that I could see for sure, but I mean I

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Speaker 4: assume that Trump it's tough to gauge, like obviously there'll

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Speaker 4: be lunatics protesting Trump all over the place. I don't

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Speaker 4: know if it'll be enough to make a mess, And

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Speaker 4: actually it'll be a bad look. I think it'll be

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Speaker 4: a bad look for them if it gets out of hand,

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Speaker 4: and if they're just standing there with here's the thing.

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Speaker 4: The reason they do all this childish nonsense with the

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Speaker 4: encampments and in the occupying buildings and we refuse to

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Speaker 4: leave and all this is because if they were just

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Speaker 4: standing around channing slogans, nobody cares. Here a bunch of imbeciles.

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Speaker 4: You're not convincing anyone of anything, so that's why they

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Speaker 4: do these things. It's like lying down in the street

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Speaker 4: to make you, you know, three hours late for work because

438
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 4: the highways blocked.

439
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: Like.

440
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,640
Speaker 4: These people have no good arguments, so they inflict themselves

441
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:13,479
Speaker 4: upon the normal people.

442
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 2: I wonder if they're able to turn this off. They

443
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 2: dialed up the crazy to such an extent. I think

444
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:27,479
Speaker 2: what they want to do is jump this energy into

445
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 2: BLM again. I think if you could go into their

446
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: sort of hive mind, what they're hoping for is the

447
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 2: energy that they've unlocked with the Hamas protests and the

448
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: anti Israel protest. They hope to be able to combine

449
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: it with something BLM related because the BLM protests are

450
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 2: super positive for them. Now here's the challenge in general

451
00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 2: with protests. When you're in all of the positions of power,

452
00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 2: how does that play with independent voters? Because it's one

453
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: thing when you can kind of drag it around as

454
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 2: a weight on Donald Trump in twenty twenty oh, look,

455
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:10,639
Speaker 2: the country's falling apart. This is all Donald Trump's fault.

456
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 2: When you're in basically control of the entire government, I know,

457
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 2: we got a two or three seat majority in the House,

458
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:21,960
Speaker 2: Republicans do. But basically you've got Democrats in the Senate.

459
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,239
Speaker 2: You've got complete control in the White House. Right now,

460
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 2: Does it work against Joe Biden if there's any kind

461
00:25:31,119 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 2: of unrest, even if it's motivated like BLM was by

462
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 2: the George Floyd related incident, I don't know how that

463
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 2: plays if you're in the White House.

464
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, it depends on what the issue is and how

465
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 4: they're going about it. Remember, while all the BLM two

466
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 4: point zero stuff was happening, obviously Trump was president, and

467
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 4: so there was this implicit Oh, the racist Donald Trump

468
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 4: president is in office, and so that's why one cop

469
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 4: put a knee on the shoulder of you know, like

470
00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:11,120
Speaker 4: it's Trump's fault somehow. What happened in Minnesota with with

471
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 4: one cop actually was you know, unfortunately they threw the

472
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 4: other cop in prison to the one who's just there.

473
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, it was it was total injustice.

474
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 4: By the way, these officers, none of them wanted to

475
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 4: hurt anybody, Uh, the idea that they should. That one

476
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,960
Speaker 4: what's his name got like Chauvin got like twenty years

477
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 4: or something.

478
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's it. They were absolutely just handed

479
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 1: over to the mob.

480
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,639
Speaker 4: It was wrong. It was mob justice. And now I

481
00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 4: think we're allowed to actually finally talk about what's going

482
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 4: on there. Maybe that's been the case for a while,

483
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:45,160
Speaker 4: but Clay, I think that it even if they mobilize

484
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:49,199
Speaker 4: and Biden is in power, the problem is the people

485
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 4: who do not go along with Biden, Right, Biden would

486
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 4: get so much more done. Biden would have achieved so

487
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 4: much more for the black community, let's say, in America

488
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 4: under his tenure. Now, the black community, I think knows

489
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 4: this is not true, but the narrative would be Biden

490
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 4: would have achieved so much if only the Trump Republicans

491
00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 4: weren't standing in his way. So anything that they protest

492
00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 4: is our fault somehow. On the Israel issue, it's a

493
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,199
Speaker 4: little bit more bipartisan, but generally speaking, they always have

494
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 4: a way to say that is the fault of the

495
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 4: other side, even when they're in power, because we should

496
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:29,639
Speaker 4: just go along with everything they want. If we went

497
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:31,959
Speaker 4: along with everything they want, then there wouldn't be these problems.

498
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:32,240
Speaker 1: Right.

499
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 4: But Biden, to the earlier point I made, he is

500
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 4: losing support among particularly young blackmail voters and If Biden

501
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 4: does not get ninety percent plus of the black vote,

502
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 4: it's all overh.

503
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 1: No way he wins.

504
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 4: So I think that's I think there are encouraging signs

505
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 4: that the usual Democrat playbook of lies will not rest.

506
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,439
Speaker 4: And again encouraging signs. I know, who knows what's going

507
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 4: to happen, but I do see some reason for optimism.

508
00:27:59,400 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: Look at that CLI.

509
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 4: I'm optimistic, although the Boy Scouts did just change their name.

510
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,400
Speaker 4: Have you seen this, Yes, I saw that story. I mean,

511
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 4: you saying that you thought there was a possibility for

512
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 4: a not guilty verdict for Trump is maybe the most

513
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:14,640
Speaker 4: optimistic thing I've heard you say in months. I said

514
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 4: ten percent shot. I think it's that's a pretty high percent.

515
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 4: You know, I think that that's well. I would have

516
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,240
Speaker 4: said it was one until this week. But I think

517
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,719
Speaker 4: it's such a debacle. And also it's so clear as

518
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 4: they're having the Stormy Daniels testimony that they really just

519
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 4: want to humiliate Donald Trump. And if they took the

520
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 4: law seriously and if this really was about justice and

521
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 4: about our sacred democracy, they wouldn't have some very sad

522
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 4: former porn star telling tales from twenty years ago about

523
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 4: something that Trump completely denies, but even irrespective of that,

524
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 4: certainly not criminal. And why are we having this told

525
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 4: again in a court twenty years later?

526
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: What is the purpose of this?

527
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 4: They just want to humiliate him play They hate him

528
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 4: so much that it makes them irrational. That is true

529
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 4: of the anti Trump Democrats across the board. They lose

530
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 4: context and it looks like they've lost context and they've

531
00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 4: lost their judgment when it comes to all of these

532
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,959
Speaker 4: criminal trials. I'm hoping that that's the case. Six SI

533
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 4: your calls and this also Eric Hovdy, running for Wisconsin

534
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 4: Senate going to join us. I want to talk to

535
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 4: him about the economy, Biden economy, some of the very

536
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 4: troubling headwinds out there, and basically and people realizing the

537
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 4: government's just taking away your money. They don't say it

538
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 4: that way, but the government, the Biden administration, is spending

539
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 4: so much that they are spending your savings into oblivion

540
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 4: and your paycheck into oblivion. That is happening, and that

541
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 4: is a way to destroy an economy, and it has

542
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 4: destroyed economies historically a very large sophisticated markets. So we'll

543
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,960
Speaker 4: talk more about that, but you know, my collection of

544
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 4: firearms now includes my first two guns from Bear Creek Arsenal.

545
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 4: I got an ar and I got a pistol. The

546
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 4: pistols the Grizzly, it is phenomenal. I love the way

547
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 4: that the grip on the gun make sure that I'm

548
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 4: putting my thumb high up so that I get a

549
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 4: stable platform for shooting. Is one of the things I see.

550
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,480
Speaker 4: I do it myself a lot of people. You go

551
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,959
Speaker 4: out there and you don't really bring your hands together

552
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 4: in a way that creates that secure, stable shooting foundation.

553
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 4: The Grizzly has the grips for the thumb, not just

554
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 4: for your hand, for the thumb in the right place.

555
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 4: I love this firearm and also Bear Creek Arsenal is

556
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,240
Speaker 4: all about the Second Amendment, is all about the right

557
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 4: to bear arms and bringing you the highest quality firearms

558
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 4: possible at an everyday value for more than a decade now,

559
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 4: but they bring together four decades of firearms experience backing

560
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 4: that up. They've got a wide range of premium calibers

561
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 4: that a fraction with the competitors offer. Look for a

562
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 4: lot of you, I think you already have some firearms

563
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 4: right you maybe haven't heard of Bear Creek Arsenal. Go

564
00:30:56,560 --> 00:31:00,719
Speaker 4: check out the website see for yourself, have their stuff.

565
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 4: I have used their firearms at the range. I've got

566
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 4: a whole I mean I went to their factory. I

567
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 4: was shooting everything we could put out on the table.

568
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 4: It was a lot of fun. I'm not gonna lie

569
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 4: Go to Bear Creek Arsenal dot com slash buck see

570
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 4: what they've got. See for yourself Bear Creekarsenal dot com

571
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 4: slash buck. When you see those prices and then you

572
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 4: get to try the quality of their farms yourself, this

573
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 4: is gonna be your new favorite farms manufacturer. Like I said,

574
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 4: I've got some of the most expensive firearms that you

575
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 4: could have as a civilian anywhere in terms of general manufacturing,

576
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 4: and Bear Creek Arsenal is every bit is good. And

577
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 4: when you add the value proposition in, you're like, this

578
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 4: is way better. It's better than the biggest names in

579
00:31:37,880 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 4: the business. Bear Creekarsenal dot com slash buck and use

580
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 4: my name buck as your promo code to get ten

581
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:55,080
Speaker 4: percent off your first order. We've got our friend Eric

582
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 4: Hovedy in the mix. He's running for a critical Senate

583
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 4: seat up in Wisconsin, which is also where the RNC

584
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 4: will be this summer, so no doubt we will be

585
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 4: drinking some Bruce Kes eating some cheese curds with him

586
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 4: during RNC week, although I will have to find gluten

587
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 4: free beer. Good to have you, Eric, thanks for coming

588
00:32:13,480 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 4: back on the show.

589
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 9: Great being on the show. And we're gonna we're gonna

590
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:21,440
Speaker 9: eat some brats as well. You can't appear, Yeah, you

591
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 9: gotta have braz Man.

592
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 4: Bro bro any any excuse to eat some form of

593
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 4: the seasoned meat family. I'm generally a fan of Ron DeSantis.

594
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: Here he is.

595
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 4: I wanted because you're you're an economics guy just understands

596
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 4: or not like an economics professor, but somebody who has

597
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 4: to actually succeed in the markets. You took over community banks.

598
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 4: You have a background in the private sector. You've done

599
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 4: very well, and so you understand financing where where you

600
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:50,520
Speaker 4: have to be right and you have to see what's

601
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 4: really happening in the economy around you. Governor Santis obviously

602
00:32:54,080 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 4: super sharp guy. I wanted you to react to what

603
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 4: he says about what's been going on with all the

604
00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 4: spending and how effects Wisconsin Nights and everybody across the country.

605
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 10: Play twelve This federal government has borrowed, printed, and spent

606
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 10: trillions and trillions of dollars far beyond what they should

607
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 10: have done over the last many years. We know that

608
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 10: when they were doing it, there were a lot of

609
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,959
Speaker 10: people saying, you are going to have inflation. When the

610
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 10: Fed was printing so much money, people were saying, you're.

611
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 11: Going to have inflation. And that's exactly what's happened. And

612
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 11: so that has been an invisible tax on every American.

613
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 11: People are paying more for groceries, they're paying more for

614
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 11: for goods, paying more for services.

615
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 4: Tell us about this invisible tax that Ron DeSantis is

616
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 4: setting up here.

617
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 9: So let me give you hard numbers behind it. So

618
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 9: Joe Biden spent basically four point seven trillion dollars after

619
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 9: the economy had already come out of COVID. Remember we

620
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,479
Speaker 9: spent about four trillion dollars during the heart of COVID.

621
00:33:56,240 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 9: So he spent four point seven Well, when you spend

622
00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 9: that amount of money, the Federal Reserve, which is the

623
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 9: bank for the federal government, had to monetize that debt,

624
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,759
Speaker 9: and in that process they increase the money supply by

625
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 9: an enormous amount. Well, what is inflation? Inflation is too

626
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 9: much money chasing a fixed amount of goods and services.

627
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 9: So it's the reckless spending that has created this wave

628
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 9: of inflation that has driven up the cost of people's food.

629
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 9: They're gasoline everything that they touch in life. And it

630
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 9: was never transitory. That was just a total misnomer by

631
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 9: Jerome Powell who runs the FED. So they've been engaging

632
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 9: in voodoo economics and it has cost the American public dearly.

633
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 9: But there's a video I don't know if you guys

634
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 9: have shown it or have played it for your listeners

635
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 9: where it's Jared Bernstein, who's spent Biden's chief economic advisor

636
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 9: since his Vice presidents day. And this guy never was

637
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 9: trained in economics and they're literally asking them about MMT

638
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 9: modern monetary theory, and he can't even explain the most

639
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 9: basic things. And you watch this and go, yeah, you

640
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 9: wonder why we have all these negative consequences because we

641
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 9: have completely incompetent people leading our government and our government finances.

642
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 9: And that's the sad thing about it. So you talk

643
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:35,280
Speaker 9: about an insidious tax, inflation is just a back toward

644
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 9: tax that whittles away the standard of living for every American.

645
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 2: How much difference and better off. Do you think the

646
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 2: United States would be if everyone representing the United States

647
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 2: was like you and had had to run a successful

648
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 2: business at some point in time. Because what Buck and

649
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,480
Speaker 2: I talk about sometimes is Joe Biden's been in government

650
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 2: for forty seven or forty eight years. You got AOC's

651
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: running around. I don't think they understand basic economics. And

652
00:36:07,160 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 2: if you don't understand basic economics, you end up making choices.

653
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 2: It feels like that many of our politicians make one

654
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 2: hundred percent.

655
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 9: And look, we have a lot of that on the

656
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:22,600
Speaker 9: Republican side too, And that's why we're in this position

657
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 9: where we have thirty four trillion dollars in debt, where

658
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 9: the interest costs on our debt now is bigger than

659
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 9: any expenditure in the federal government other than Social Security.

660
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 9: It's bigger just the cost of servicing our debt is

661
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 9: bigger than our Defense department, and by the way, in

662
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 9: a year, will be bigger than Social Security. And it's

663
00:36:41,520 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 9: putting Social Security at risk. So you know the problem

664
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 9: is you have these career politicians. Center Baldwin, who I'm

665
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 9: running against, is one of the most liberal. Their whole

666
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 9: life has been politics thirty eight years. It has been

667
00:36:56,480 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 9: in Washington, d C. For coming on twenty six years.

668
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 9: She knows nothing about how the real economy works, how

669
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 9: business works. Think of it this way. She's never had

670
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 9: to buy herself health insurance. She's always had health insurance

671
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 9: offered by whatever government position. I've not only had to

672
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 9: buy health insurance, I've had to buy it for thousands

673
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 9: of people how to manage it. I've seen the disaster

674
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 9: that Obamacare has created. So unless you've had to deal

675
00:37:26,719 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 9: with these issues and understand these issues and understand economics,

676
00:37:31,040 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 9: then you've got people sitting in Washington, which sadly we've

677
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 9: had for far too long, that don't know what the

678
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 9: hell they're doing, and they don't understand the consequences of

679
00:37:41,800 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 9: the decisions they're making.

680
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 4: We're speaking to Eric Hovedy. He's running up in Wisconsin

681
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 4: for a critical Senate seat. He's running against career politician

682
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 4: Tammy Baldwin. And on the issue of the spending and

683
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 4: what it's doing, the economy price is certainly going up.

684
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 4: But I saw the statistic and it I found it

685
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 4: really concerning, Eric, and especially given that they're going to

686
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 4: try to pull whatever levers they can in the Biden

687
00:38:06,080 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 4: White House to make things look better than they are. Right,

688
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 4: they're going to put lipstick on the pig, so to speak.

689
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:14,440
Speaker 4: Between now an election day. Even with that going on,

690
00:38:15,239 --> 00:38:19,279
Speaker 4: forty three percent of small businesses couldn't pay their rent

691
00:38:19,440 --> 00:38:21,880
Speaker 4: in full because of the economy. Right now, that was

692
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 4: just from Bloomberg. What's going on with that?

693
00:38:25,120 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 9: Look the economic data that's being put out, I'm starting

694
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 9: to really question. I'll give you this one example employment data.

695
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 9: We've never had a time series like this where what

696
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,919
Speaker 9: they report for job growth in a given month, because

697
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 9: they do it the first Friday of every month, and

698
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 9: then they'll always put in their revision for the prior

699
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 9: month we've had was at sixteen out of seventeen times

700
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 9: they say, oh, we've created this amount of jobs, and

701
00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 9: then the next month they always lower how much jobs

702
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:00,120
Speaker 9: they created the last time. Nor do they tell tell

703
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,399
Speaker 9: you that most of all the jobs that have been

704
00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 9: created are second time jobs, not full first time jobs.

705
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 9: So if you look at you know, underneath the belly,

706
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 9: if you look at what's happening with credit card debt

707
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 9: or auto debt and the default rates that are rising significantly,

708
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 9: particularly to those that are you know, in the lower

709
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 9: bottom quarter of you know, economic earnings, they're being crushed

710
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 9: by inflation. And you know, it's so sad.

711
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:33,520
Speaker 1: I was.

712
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 9: I was with a younger person and this young gal

713
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:42,280
Speaker 9: came up to me and said, I'm working two jobs.

714
00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 9: I work all the time, and I'm still having to

715
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 9: live with my parents. And I decide how sad I mean,

716
00:39:49,040 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 9: clearly she wants to, you know, be standing on her

717
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 9: own two feet, but she can't get ahead, and she's

718
00:39:54,719 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 9: working hard. It's not somebody just CouchSurfing. So what they're doing,

719
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 9: they've really damaged the American economy and so many Americans

720
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 9: and on multiple different levels. And again, look at healthcare,

721
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 9: look at the cost of health care and the access

722
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:14,960
Speaker 9: to healthcare. I really want more Republicans to start talking

723
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 9: about this issue because the consequences of what Obamacare, what

724
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 9: they passed, are all coming home to roost now with

725
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,280
Speaker 9: access to care and the cost of care. So they've

726
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 9: created a total mess, and it's time we get real

727
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:33,480
Speaker 9: people that understand how the economy works and how you know,

728
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 9: society works in there, you know, taking over, because that's

729
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 9: what our founding fathers wanted. They wanted citizen legislators, people

730
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 9: that brought expertise, went and served for a term or

731
00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:48,680
Speaker 9: two and then got the heck out of there. Instead,

732
00:40:48,680 --> 00:40:54,280
Speaker 9: we've created this career politician political class that's been running Washington,

733
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 9: d C.

734
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:57,759
Speaker 2: All right, I got a gift for you. Could be

735
00:40:57,800 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 2: a good thing, could be a bad thing. Serious, serious question.

736
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:03,399
Speaker 2: I think I asked you about this last time. I'm

737
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 2: coming up now to Madison, Wisconsin. On September fourteenth, Alabama

738
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,720
Speaker 2: Crimson Tide is going to be on the road playing

739
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 2: against your beloved Wisconsin Badgers. Should we do I know

740
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 2: you want to watch the game? Should we do some

741
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 2: form of fun Friday evening in Wisconsin area event for

742
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:27,800
Speaker 2: all of the Alabama and Wisconsin fans that are going

743
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 2: to be in town. To me, this feels like a

744
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 2: no brainer. Be an awesome time.

745
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:36,320
Speaker 9: I think it would be a blast. I'm so excited

746
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 9: about this. You know, it's always fun when you get

747
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 9: big rivals from Earth from different conferences that haven't been

748
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 9: rivals in the past, but big well named program. So

749
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 9: we're really excited to have Alabama come up and we

750
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 9: look forward to putting on, you know, a great show

751
00:41:56,280 --> 00:42:01,640
Speaker 9: here in Madison, Wisconsin. It's a great space stadium Camp

752
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,920
Speaker 9: Randall to watch a game. So we're super excited.

753
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 2: We I will be there. I think I'm going to

754
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,320
Speaker 2: be in town. We should talk about a fun Friday

755
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 2: event leading into that game on Saturday. Can't wait to

756
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,640
Speaker 2: check it out. And I would imagine there are a

757
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 2: lot of Wisconsin Badger as well as Alabama Crimson Tide

758
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 2: fans listening to us right now who would like to

759
00:42:21,360 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 2: be a part of that. And oh, by the way,

760
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: you're also in the most important state maybe in the

761
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,759
Speaker 2: entire country, not only for your Senate race, but for

762
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 2: who's going to be the next president of the United States.

763
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 9: One hundred percent. I mean, look, I don't think Wisconsin's

764
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,399
Speaker 9: the battleground state. I mean it's one to five. And

765
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,320
Speaker 9: if I can win this Senate race, this can pretty

766
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 9: much not only assured you know, the next two years,

767
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,880
Speaker 9: but potentially the next four and six years and we

768
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 9: move it from a hardcore progressive lefty to somebody with

769
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 9: common sense and you know it's a conservative. So yeah,

770
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 9: it's it's gonna be fun. Look forward to it and

771
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:07,640
Speaker 9: drinking beer and eating brats and cheese kurds and watching

772
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:11,240
Speaker 9: some great football and all the rest awesome.

773
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:13,279
Speaker 1: Cannot wait. It's gonna be fantastic.

774
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 2: We'll see you then and certainly we'll have you on

775
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 2: between now and then for everything else associated with the

776
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:20,879
Speaker 2: race as well.

777
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 1: That is gonna be fun one. It's gonna be a

778
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 1: heck of the game.

779
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:27,920
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Speaker 2: Ryan Gerdusky and I say this finally one of our

834
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Speaker 2: favorite data nerds out there.

835
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Speaker 9: Ryan.

836
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 2: I think the last time we had you on was

837
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 2: a couple of months ago if I remember correctly, and

838
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 2: you were at that point.

839
00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, Siled, you are.

840
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 2: At that point becoming somewhat increasingly optimistic on Trump's chances

841
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:08,880
Speaker 2: to win the race. So let me start with you

842
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 2: right now, since we last talked to you, as we

843
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 2: sit here almost exactly six months out, how would you

844
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:20,279
Speaker 2: assess this Trump versus Biden race? Are you still optimistic

845
00:47:20,360 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 2: on Trump's side? What has the data shown you in

846
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:24,520
Speaker 2: the last two months or so?

847
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:26,440
Speaker 1: Well?

848
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 12: So I write this in the National Populist newsletter on

849
00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:32,320
Speaker 12: sub sec my National Populist newsletter, and he wants to subscribe.

850
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 12: There's basically a dichotomy of two conflicting regions of the country,

851
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,399
Speaker 12: the Sun Belt and the russ Belt. That's really where

852
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:41,840
Speaker 12: almost all of our swing states preside in one of

853
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 12: those two regions. The sun Belt is everything below the

854
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 12: thirty sixth parallel, so basically Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona and below.

855
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 12: And they include swing states or traditional swing states like Florida,

856
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:57,359
Speaker 12: North Carolina, now Texas which is pretty much of Spring State,

857
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 12: and Arizona and Nevada. What we've seen in the Sun

858
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 12: Belt is those states Trump has a very healthy margin

859
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:12,040
Speaker 12: outside the margin of error in most polls. Florida and

860
00:48:12,080 --> 00:48:15,040
Speaker 12: Texas are way beyond the marginal era. They're almost in

861
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 12: double digit territory, and even in North Carolina is basically there.

862
00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:24,399
Speaker 12: Trump is pulling about five points. Even in Nevada, Arizona,

863
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:28,440
Speaker 12: and Georgia. Trump's lead in Arizona is about four points,

864
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,919
Speaker 12: in Georgia is three point seven, and Nevada is three

865
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 12: point five. What's more interesting, if you look at it,

866
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 12: is where the averages have been for so long. This

867
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:43,399
Speaker 12: isn't a new thing. Trump has led in Georgia since October,

868
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 12: He's led in North Carolina since last August, and he's

869
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:50,360
Speaker 12: been that way with Arizona and Nevada since November. So

870
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:53,239
Speaker 12: this has been six straight months and about lots of

871
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 12: news stories and lots of different headlines and lots of

872
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:59,680
Speaker 12: money by the Biden administration Democratic Party being put into

873
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 12: these states that have had a little impact. Remembers I've

874
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,640
Speaker 12: moved out point in Biden's favor, but not enough to

875
00:49:06,680 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 12: sit there and move them out of the margin of error.

876
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 12: Then there's the Roust Belt. The Rust Belt is places

877
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 12: mostly three big states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has

878
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:19,960
Speaker 12: been leading in the Ross Belt in all those areas,

879
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 12: but by very very small numbers by a point a

880
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 12: point and a half to two and a half points

881
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:28,400
Speaker 12: in Michigan. That is not a safe place to be now.

882
00:49:28,440 --> 00:49:30,880
Speaker 12: That is remarkably better than he was in twenty sixteen

883
00:49:30,880 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 12: and twenty twenty, when state polling was very off in

884
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,960
Speaker 12: twenty sixteen and somewhat off in twenty twenty. But Trump

885
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 12: has got much more to move, has a lot more

886
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 12: work to do in the Midwest that is older and

887
00:49:44,160 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 12: whiter than he does in the sun Belt, which is

888
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:50,720
Speaker 12: younger and more diverse, and that will be the deciding

889
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 12: factor in this upcoming election.

890
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: Hey, Ryan, it's buck.

891
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:58,600
Speaker 4: Where do you think the Democrats believe their best shots

892
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,959
Speaker 4: at taking swings? We all know what those swing states are.

893
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 4: Where do they think they have their best shot? You

894
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:08,359
Speaker 4: believe based on the polling and the data you can see.

895
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:12,800
Speaker 12: Well, absolutely, Pennsylvania is very very very important, Michigan, especially

896
00:50:12,800 --> 00:50:15,480
Speaker 12: with Robert F. Kenny Junior making the ballot in Michigan

897
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:19,680
Speaker 12: and Wisconsin, those three places because they have while they

898
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:22,279
Speaker 12: have a huge working class white population, there is a

899
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:26,920
Speaker 12: very very very small Latino population, and as Latinos are

900
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:29,840
Speaker 12: re orienting themselves much like white voters did in the

901
00:50:29,880 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 12: nineteen seventies and nineteen eighties, where conservative whites were no

902
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 12: longer voting Democrat, they we voting Republican for president. We're

903
00:50:36,600 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 12: seeing a lot of that among Latinos, where conservative Latinos

904
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:42,360
Speaker 12: who traditionally vote Democrat are voting more and more Republican.

905
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:45,319
Speaker 12: They don't have He does not have that boost. It's

906
00:50:45,360 --> 00:50:48,200
Speaker 12: going to be completely among college educated whites and working

907
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:51,840
Speaker 12: class whites. And the thing that Trump has has the

908
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,280
Speaker 12: numbers right now working in his favor. But the people

909
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:58,320
Speaker 12: who vote often and vote continuously, especially college educated whites,

910
00:50:58,640 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 12: are very, very heavy in Joe Biden's camp. And that

911
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 12: is how Joe Biden could lose the entire Sunbelt, all

912
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 12: the swing states and the Sunbelts and still win the

913
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 12: presidency if he manages to hold on to enough working

914
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,879
Speaker 12: class whites and college educated whites. Pew research in their

915
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 12: exit holes of twenty twenty, twenty seven percent of all

916
00:51:19,440 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 12: Biden voters were non college educated whites. That's a lot.

917
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 12: That is the second largest part of his coalition outside

918
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 12: of college educated whites. So these are tens of millions

919
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 12: of people that should be Republican, that would be Republican.

920
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 12: That positive for grabs if they try to appeal to them,

921
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:41,360
Speaker 12: and that would be the main priority I think of

922
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:42,240
Speaker 12: the Trump campaign.

923
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 2: All right, this is a super nerd question. But correct

924
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 2: me if I'm wrong on the math. Here we are potentially,

925
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 2: if Biden were to hold on to the Midwest, Let's

926
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 2: say he won Wisconsin, Let's say he won Michigan, and

927
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 2: he won Pennsylvania. Based on what you're saying, Russ Belt

928
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:04,520
Speaker 2: versus Sun Belt, if Trump flipped Georgia, if he flipped Nevada,

929
00:52:04,600 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: and if he flipped Arizona, it would come down potentially

930
00:52:09,320 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 2: to a two sixty nine to two sixty nine tie.

931
00:52:13,560 --> 00:52:13,799
Speaker 11: Uh.

932
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 2: If he wins the sun Belt loses the Rust Belt,

933
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 2: depending on what would happen in the Omaha Nebraska congressional seat,

934
00:52:21,000 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 2: the way that they divide out things in.

935
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: Is that correct?

936
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 12: Yes, that's correct.

937
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:30,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, because because would win Trump would win if this

938
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 2: got tossed into the House of Representatives, tied up at

939
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 2: two sixty nine, and by the way, that's not a

940
00:52:35,120 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 2: crazy result based on polling right now, right, if they.

941
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 12: If the or But the thing is that Republicans have

942
00:52:42,239 --> 00:52:45,600
Speaker 12: to hold the House because what happens is not the

943
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:51,080
Speaker 12: old Congress motes for the new Congress does so if republic.

944
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:51,600
Speaker 1: But it's by state.

945
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:54,360
Speaker 2: Sorry to nerd out even more, but it's by state

946
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:58,319
Speaker 2: delegation right, not necessarily control of the House, and I

947
00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:02,400
Speaker 2: believe Republicans would be fair to still have more states.

948
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 2: But I mean this is this is how tight end

949
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:05,040
Speaker 2: could be.

950
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 12: Yes, it's it is a yes, that is one potential

951
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:17,520
Speaker 12: depending how swing states in places like Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania

952
00:53:17,640 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 12: go where the majority of members could be Democrat or

953
00:53:21,520 --> 00:53:24,719
Speaker 12: Republican from either which state it is potential It is possible,

954
00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:27,720
Speaker 12: but yeah, that would mean like places like North Carolina

955
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 12: and Georgia with Delute vudding Republican. But there are a

956
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 12: number of swing states which would draw the majority of

957
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:39,800
Speaker 12: the delegation being Democratic Republican in critical battlegrounds in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan,

958
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,919
Speaker 12: so we'd have to wait and see Minnesota.

959
00:53:44,320 --> 00:53:48,040
Speaker 4: We're speaking to Ryan Gardowski, National Populist Newsletter is his

960
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 4: sub stack.

961
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 1: Go subscribe to it. Ryan.

962
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 4: How's the money game looking right now? As I understand it,

963
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:57,640
Speaker 4: The RNC has started out in a rough spot this

964
00:53:57,760 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 4: year in terms of cash on hand, but has been

965
00:54:00,320 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 4: really ramping up fundraising successfully ramping it up recently. What

966
00:54:05,640 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 4: can you tell us about about how that component of

967
00:54:08,400 --> 00:54:10,440
Speaker 4: it is lining up right now as we get closer

968
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:11,000
Speaker 4: to this, I.

969
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:14,399
Speaker 12: Mean, Lard Trump has really done a number of good

970
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 12: work when it comes to She's definitely not spending money

971
00:54:16,960 --> 00:54:19,279
Speaker 12: like Ronal McDaniel was, which is a good thing. And

972
00:54:19,320 --> 00:54:22,319
Speaker 12: she's been increasing in her fundraising efforts. And the main

973
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 12: job of the RNC is too fundraise. The same job

974
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 12: with the DNC. One of the big problems for Hillary

975
00:54:27,440 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 12: Clinton in twenty sixteen was the DNC was functionally bankrupt

976
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 12: when she took it all when when she became the

977
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 12: party's nominee Obama really didn't fundraise very well for whatsoever.

978
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:40,719
Speaker 12: But the problem that the RNC is having right now,

979
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 12: the Republicans are having right now is that they are

980
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,960
Speaker 12: the state parties, which were ones very strong in a

981
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:48,920
Speaker 12: number of states, are extremely weak. The Michigan State Party,

982
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 12: the Arizona State Party. They are in terrible shape a

983
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:57,719
Speaker 12: number of them. And the reliance on state parties to

984
00:54:57,760 --> 00:55:00,880
Speaker 12: sit there and move the needle with which was intro

985
00:55:01,480 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 12: it was so important in twenty sixteen, is not available today.

986
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:08,040
Speaker 12: I'll say on ports in twenty sixteen in Ohio, the

987
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:11,800
Speaker 12: state party was so well run, but do check I

988
00:55:11,800 --> 00:55:14,560
Speaker 12: think ran at that point, but it was so well

989
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 12: run that on election Day of twenty sixteen and their

990
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,359
Speaker 12: early get up the vote plan, by noon they had

991
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:24,320
Speaker 12: stopped using any resources in Ohio and shifted everything to Michigan.

992
00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 12: And Michigan obviously was won by I think less than

993
00:55:27,600 --> 00:55:31,120
Speaker 12: half a point, but by the Ohio GOP saying we

994
00:55:31,200 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 12: have this election of the bag, we want it, let's

995
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:36,840
Speaker 12: move all of our resources to Michigan was so important

996
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 12: to helping flip that state and mobilize low propensity voters

997
00:55:40,239 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 12: and getting them out to vote. Ohio still is a

998
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 12: very good state party. Other states, though, do not, and

999
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:50,440
Speaker 12: those resources are very, very badly needed when it comes

1000
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:54,439
Speaker 12: to helping elect people and helping elected president so Johnald Trump.

1001
00:55:54,560 --> 00:55:57,280
Speaker 12: The one thing that the RNC and the Trump campaign

1002
00:55:57,320 --> 00:56:00,160
Speaker 12: have not done is they do not have a lot

1003
00:56:00,160 --> 00:56:02,960
Speaker 12: of state offices or local offices as of yet, and

1004
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:05,560
Speaker 12: Biden has a number. That doesn't mean a lot necessarily

1005
00:56:05,560 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 12: because Trump hat very few in sixteen and Biden had

1006
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:10,960
Speaker 12: almost none in twenty, but in title races that get

1007
00:56:10,960 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 12: out the vote effort does mean.

1008
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: A lot Ryan.

1009
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:18,520
Speaker 2: In sixteen we saw Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan all go

1010
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:22,600
Speaker 2: for Trump. In twenty we saw them all go for Biden.

1011
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:26,680
Speaker 2: Do you believe that it's likely that all three of

1012
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 2: those states go the same direction in twenty four, either

1013
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:34,919
Speaker 2: for Biden or for Trump? Part one, Part two? If

1014
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:39,440
Speaker 2: you were analyzing this from Trump's perspective, do you believe

1015
00:56:39,480 --> 00:56:44,440
Speaker 2: that Michigan, may be based on the Israel and Palestine situation,

1016
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:47,759
Speaker 2: has moved more than Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.

1017
00:56:47,880 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 1: If Trump were gonna win one.

1018
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,880
Speaker 2: Of those three, which one or maybe ranked them in

1019
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 2: likelihood of winning, do you think it's different than in

1020
00:56:56,040 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 2: sixteen and twenty Well, one of.

1021
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,960
Speaker 12: The big problems in twenty four Republicans was the Green

1022
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:06,000
Speaker 12: Party was not qualified on the ballot in either Wisconsin, Arizona,

1023
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 12: or Georgia. They had all been thrown off the ballot,

1024
00:57:09,080 --> 00:57:12,400
Speaker 12: and had the Green Party performed equally as well in

1025
00:57:12,400 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 12: any of those states as they did in the neighboring state,

1026
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:17,440
Speaker 12: the election would have been different. Now, the Green Party,

1027
00:57:17,440 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 12: as I understand it, is on the ballot in all

1028
00:57:19,560 --> 00:57:22,280
Speaker 12: of those states. So a really hardcore progressive, which is

1029
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 12: Jill Stein, who's campaigning on a pro Palestinian message, in

1030
00:57:25,640 --> 00:57:29,720
Speaker 12: a pro Gaza statehood message is on the ballot all

1031
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:31,600
Speaker 12: those places, so that may make up a big thing.

1032
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:35,000
Speaker 12: RFK Junior I believe is on the ballot in Georgia

1033
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 12: and Michigan. I'm not so sure about Arizona as of yet.

1034
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 12: That will make up a certain difference. The reason that

1035
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 12: those states really swung in twenty sixteen was there a

1036
00:57:43,600 --> 00:57:49,120
Speaker 12: proportion of the population, specifically white college educated and non college educated,

1037
00:57:49,320 --> 00:57:53,560
Speaker 12: who genuinely hated Hillary Clinton and couldn't And I portioned

1038
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 12: the black population by the who hated Hillary Clinton either

1039
00:57:56,320 --> 00:57:58,280
Speaker 12: wouldn't turn out for her, or when they did, they

1040
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 12: voted for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein twenty sixteen, That

1041
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 12: hatred did not happen in twenty twenty. They didn't feel

1042
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 12: the same thing for Joe Biden. So although Trump improved

1043
00:58:08,000 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 12: his performance among non college educated whites by a point

1044
00:58:11,480 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 12: from sixty four to sixty five percent nationwide, the percentage

1045
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:17,840
Speaker 12: of the five or six percent that had sat out

1046
00:58:17,960 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 12: or had voted for a third party came to Joe Biden.

1047
00:58:21,200 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 12: And that's where the margin made the difference. The margin

1048
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 12: was smaller because a lot of people who sat out

1049
00:58:26,480 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 12: third party had come home to the Democratic Party. Now

1050
00:58:29,920 --> 00:58:32,720
Speaker 12: that six to seven percent still exists today, they may

1051
00:58:32,760 --> 00:58:34,880
Speaker 12: set out again. They may sit there and vote for

1052
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:37,919
Speaker 12: Joe Biden, or they may vote third party. Trump should

1053
00:58:38,000 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 12: make a real appeal to those voters because non college

1054
00:58:41,920 --> 00:58:46,080
Speaker 12: educated voters one they have. The economy is hurting them

1055
00:58:46,120 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 12: the most too. They are the most fragile from mass

1056
00:58:48,320 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 12: immigration as far as their jobs go. Conversations over AI

1057
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:56,280
Speaker 12: replacing their jobs is power amount that no one's really

1058
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 12: talking about yet. And I'll put up one other last thing.

1059
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 12: There is a huge, huge population in this country that

1060
00:59:02,080 --> 00:59:04,960
Speaker 12: are that live in mobile home communities that are being

1061
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 12: increasingly purchased by large companies that are displacing millions upon

1062
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:11,959
Speaker 12: millions of people, are threatening to displace millions upon millions

1063
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:14,600
Speaker 12: of people. That's a real conversation. And mobile home societies

1064
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 12: communities rather are very large in swing states in this country.

1065
00:59:18,240 --> 00:59:21,760
Speaker 12: Their biggest I think are Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona.

1066
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,000
Speaker 12: I think those are the top four. So that's a

1067
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:28,240
Speaker 12: very very important Democratic Speaking to working class white voters

1068
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:30,040
Speaker 12: right now is critical. In the same way that he

1069
00:59:30,080 --> 00:59:33,040
Speaker 12: attempted to black voters in twenty twenty talking about the

1070
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 12: Platinum Plan. There should be a plan for the white

1071
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 12: working class Americans who feel completely unrecognized, and I think

1072
00:59:40,120 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 12: speaking to them is critical at this moment when six

1073
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:46,920
Speaker 12: or seven percent of their vote could easily swing one

1074
00:59:46,920 --> 00:59:47,600
Speaker 12: way or the other.

1075
00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 4: Ryan or Dusky, everybody check out National Populist newsletter on substack.

1076
00:59:53,720 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 1: Ryan, keep your phone handy. We're gonna to talk to

1077
00:59:56,640 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 1: you as this gets closer.

1078
00:59:58,160 --> 01:00:00,400
Speaker 2: By the way, do you think Trump is still winning

1079
01:00:00,440 --> 01:00:02,800
Speaker 2: two months ago? You said yes, just yes or no?

1080
01:00:02,840 --> 01:00:04,880
Speaker 2: Would he win if the election were today based on

1081
01:00:04,920 --> 01:00:05,720
Speaker 2: your analysis?

1082
01:00:06,160 --> 01:00:08,919
Speaker 12: Yes, yes, absolutely, yes as all today.

1083
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:11,440
Speaker 2: Yes, that's good to hear. We'll talk to you again soon.

1084
01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:14,160
Speaker 2: Hopefully the result will stay the same. My Pillow twenty

1085
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 2: five dollars Extravaganza sale gives you a chance to buy

1086
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Speaker 2: some of the most popular products at record low prizes.

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Speaker 2: Giza dream sheets, the towel sets, sandal slippers, many other items,

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Speaker 2: all twenty five bucks. They're able to give this great

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Speaker 2: price point because they've eliminated the middleman retailer, passing the

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Speaker 2: savings directly onto you. Here's how you get hooked up.

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Speaker 2: Go to my Pillow dot com. Use our names Clay

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Speaker 2: and Buck as the promo code. And if you got

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Speaker 2: pampered pets like Buck does, they've got dog beds and

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Speaker 2: blankets in the Extravaganza Sale two. Just go to my

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Speaker 2: pillow dot com, click on the radio listeners special Square

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Speaker 2: twenty five dollars deals, free shipping on orders over seventy

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Speaker 2: five bucks. Use promo code Clay and Buck for this

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Speaker 2: sale today.

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Speaker 5: He