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Speaker 1: to hoops tonight here at the volume halfew Wednesday. Everybody,
Speaker 1: hope all of you guys are having a great week
Speaker 1: so far. Got a jampackshow for you today. I wanted
Speaker 1: to bounce around to a bunch of different teams that
Speaker 1: we haven't hit so far in the preseason, and so
Speaker 1: a format that I came up with for us to
Speaker 1: do that We're gonna do who's hot and who's not today.
Speaker 1: We've got eight different segments that I'm going to go through.
Speaker 1: I think we're hitting nine different teams, so we're going
Speaker 1: to be bouncing all over the place. It's going to
Speaker 1: be a lot of fun. You guys, owe the drill
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Speaker 1: game Time today. What time is it? Game Time?
Speaker 2: All right? Let's talk some basketball. So this is gonna
Speaker 2: be fun.
Speaker 1: We're gonna bounce all around the league a little quicker
Speaker 1: than usual, but we're gonna hit a bunch of different
Speaker 1: team Also, just a couple a quick breakdown on the
Speaker 1: rest of the week. Right after I'm done recording this,
Speaker 1: I'm recording with Sam Vassini and we're going to debate
Speaker 1: my contender tiers. Okay, that's going to be coming out
Speaker 1: tomorrow morning. Lots of deep dives with additional perspective from
Speaker 1: one of the smartest basketball basketball mines in the business
Speaker 1: in Sam Vasini. We're going to bounce around the top
Speaker 1: end of the league. On Friday, I'm going to do
Speaker 1: my final season preview of the year on the Boston Celtics.
Speaker 1: Probably hit maybe one or two more preseason games, and
Speaker 1: then we're right into it guys next week. On Tuesday,
Speaker 1: we will be live on YouTube after the final buzzer
Speaker 1: of the first regular season game. We'll probably find something
Speaker 1: to do on Monday. I'm not sure what we'll do yet,
Speaker 1: but we'll get to something, maybe some predictions and stuff
Speaker 1: like that. Very very excited. I was actually venting to Paul.
Speaker 1: Paul's our lead producer, and I was venting to him yesterday, like,
Speaker 1: I'm ready for some real basketball. As much as I
Speaker 1: enjoyed the preseason, as much as I enjoy any basketball,
Speaker 1: I'm ready to see these teams actually going out there
Speaker 1: and trying to win the games. And we are very
Speaker 1: very close. We are less than week away. I cannot wait.
Speaker 1: So our first, I'm gonna go back and forth, who's hot,
Speaker 1: who's not our first?
Speaker 2: Who is hot? The Sixers co stars Paul George.
Speaker 1: Obviously, he hyper extended his knee and he's gonna miss
Speaker 1: a week, but he's fine. There's just a little bit
Speaker 1: of a bone bruise that he's gonna be fine. He
Speaker 1: made nine of his fourteen shots in preseason one point
Speaker 1: seven to eight points per jump shot, two points per
Speaker 1: pull up jump shot, seventy five percent at the rim.
Speaker 1: Just looks as smooth as ever. Lots of ball screen stuff,
Speaker 1: manipulating his defender to get caught on screens, to find
Speaker 1: just enough space for him to elevate and to pull
Speaker 1: up jump shots. That got me really excited about what
Speaker 1: that's going to look like with Joe el Embiid, specifically
Speaker 1: because Joe embiads a very big body that is difficult
Speaker 1: to get around, and also because the role man is
Speaker 1: going to be so keyed in on Joel Embiid and
Speaker 1: what he's doing, especially as we know so many of
Speaker 1: em beads ISOs and face up opportunities kind of start
Speaker 1: out of ball screens and feeds in the short role.
Speaker 1: I'm just really really excited about the openings that Paul
Speaker 1: George is going to be able to take advantage of
Speaker 1: in those situations. They also ran a little bit of
Speaker 1: two man game. There was a play at the end
Speaker 1: of the first half against Minnesota where Paul George ended
Speaker 1: up with Mike Conley on him, and it was, you know,
Speaker 1: pretty typical in that sort of situation where you expect
Speaker 1: Mi Conley to hedge on a screen, and so Paul
Speaker 1: George was kind of ran up like he was going
Speaker 1: to screen for Tyrese Maxey and then slipped out of
Speaker 1: it to the left wing and Conley lingered for just
Speaker 1: a second, and that gave Paul George just enough of
Speaker 1: an advantage to hit a dribble combination and get a
Speaker 1: good look from three. And honestly, I didn't even think
Speaker 1: it was executed as good as it could have been.
Speaker 1: Because he didn't actually really commit to the screen enough
Speaker 1: to really get Conley to hedge. And so then I
Speaker 1: started to get excited about some one three to two
Speaker 1: man game with Maxie and Paul George where the two
Speaker 1: of them can kind of play off of each other.
Speaker 1: Liked what I saw from them in preseason. And then
Speaker 1: Tyrese Maxey one point four to seven points per pull
Speaker 1: up jump shot ten for nineteen overall. Remember last year
Speaker 1: the kind of rub on Tyreese was he was shooting
Speaker 1: incredibly well off the catch, incredibly well off the move,
Speaker 1: but was struggling off the dribble. Now, then he did
Speaker 1: have a very good off the dribble shooting series against
Speaker 1: the Knicks in the first round. But movement shooting is
Speaker 1: specifically like the pull up shooting piece, excuse me, is
Speaker 1: specifically valuable because it's the ultimate coverage beater. Most coverages
Speaker 1: are designed to give up lightly contested pull up jump shots,
Speaker 1: right like you don't want to give up open catch
Speaker 1: and shoot threes. You don't want to give up lob dunks.
Speaker 1: You don't want to give up easy opportunities around the basket.
Speaker 1: You want to try to force the guy to make
Speaker 1: the toughest possible shot, and right now in basketball, the
Speaker 1: toughest shot that people are taking or contested pull up
Speaker 1: jump shots, and it's just like an important coverage beater.
Speaker 1: It's a playoff shot, it's a ceiling razor. There's a
Speaker 1: lot that Tyree's can do outside of that, right Like,
Speaker 1: we know he can speed his way downhill and get
Speaker 1: into the rim. He's gotten better as a playmaker over
Speaker 1: the last few years. The movement shooting piece is really cool.
Speaker 1: This is something that is a great counter for ball pressure,
Speaker 1: Like just have him start in the corner and just
Speaker 1: sprint like crazy, easy to come off of a dribble
Speaker 1: handoff and look to shoot the ball, or just come
Speaker 1: off of a couple of screens and look to shoot
Speaker 1: the ball. But one of the things with those movement
Speaker 1: shooting situations is there are some better counters for the
Speaker 1: defense in terms of like top locking and just denying
Speaker 1: the ball altogether forcing him to cut through to the
Speaker 1: opposite side, and so like having the ability to consistently
Speaker 1: knock down jump shots off the dribble with the ball
Speaker 1: in your hands is the ultimate coverage beater. And that
Speaker 1: was the one thing for Tyrese that was kind of
Speaker 1: missing in his development, and it seems just barely a
Speaker 1: small sample coming off the postseason and then into this preseason.
Speaker 1: But given his shooting touch, it was only a matter
Speaker 1: of time before he figured this piece out. And if
Speaker 1: he figures it out this season, it's going to dramatically
Speaker 1: raise his individual ceiling. The two of those guys, Paul
Speaker 1: George and Tyres Masey going to do a great job
Speaker 1: of anchoring that offense when Joelle Embiid is out of
Speaker 1: the lineup.
Speaker 2: Who is not.
Speaker 1: Klay Thompson just three for eighteen from the field so far,
Speaker 1: just three for fifteen on jump shots.
Speaker 2: But to be I don't really care.
Speaker 1: And here's why the MAVs didn't get Clay to anchor
Speaker 1: an offense without Luca. They got him to help capitalize
Speaker 1: on the attention that Luca Garners. There was one play
Speaker 1: in particular in the Clippers game that stood out to me.
Speaker 1: They ran a double drag where Clay set the first screen,
Speaker 1: Derek Lively's at the second screen. Remember, double drag is
Speaker 1: just simply a double ball screen where the screeners are
Speaker 1: staggered by a certain amount and the more athletic player
Speaker 1: is going to roll hard to the rim and the
Speaker 1: better shooter is going to pop out to the three
Speaker 1: point line. It usually forces a guard guard screen or
Speaker 1: a guard wing screen, which can lead to more potential
Speaker 1: for mistakes. Right, It's like if you run a regular ballscreen,
Speaker 1: less opportunity for mistakes, double drag, more opportunity for mistakes.
Speaker 1: In this case, at the beginning of the possession, darre
Speaker 1: Jones Junior was guarding Clay and Terrence Man was guarding
Speaker 1: the ball handler. But as Clay set the first screen,
Speaker 1: Terrence Man switches on to Clay, and as soon as
Speaker 1: the screen happens, as Lively sets the second screen and
Speaker 1: starts to roll, Terrence Man actually sinks down into kind
Speaker 1: of the foul line elbow area to tag on the roller.
Speaker 1: It's a mistake in this case because he is overplaying
Speaker 1: a role off of Clay Thompson, who's one of the
Speaker 1: greatest shooters of all time, like probably the second best
Speaker 1: shooter of all time.
Speaker 2: Right, he's wide open.
Speaker 1: But the ball handler on this play was John Darren Gordman,
Speaker 1: and he forced a bad skip pass to PJ. Washington
Speaker 1: in the right corner and just launched it over his
Speaker 1: head out of bounds. It was a miss read. And
Speaker 1: that's the kind of thing that I'm looking at there.
Speaker 1: That will be Luca or Kyrie in all likelihood and
Speaker 1: they won't miss those reads. Here's another kind of like
Speaker 1: simple stat to drive this point home. All three of
Speaker 1: Clay's makes so far in preseason were unguarded. He's three
Speaker 1: for five or sixty percent on unguarded catch and shoot
Speaker 1: jump shots in preseason. He's zero for ten on guarded
Speaker 1: jump shots and pull up jump shots so far in preseason. Now,
Speaker 1: do I expect Clay to be just left wide open
Speaker 1: all the time? Of course, not against especially against the
Speaker 1: elite defenses in the NBA. I think they're going to
Speaker 1: be more geared towards helping off of PJ. Washington when
Speaker 1: they can, But defenses will make mistakes and Clay will
Speaker 1: get open and Luca will make them pay for that.
Speaker 1: In years past, that player was typically a player that
Speaker 1: might make them pay, but it was either streaky or
Speaker 1: just an inadequate shooter in general. Right, So it's an
Speaker 1: absolute upgrade in that specific regard. They did run quite
Speaker 1: a bit of action for Clay. I thought that was fascinating.
Speaker 1: Lots of double wide pin downs, lots of dribble, handoff stuff,
Speaker 1: but that was obviously with very little Kyrie and Luca.
Speaker 1: I think between those two guys, Kyrie's played twelve ish
Speaker 1: minutes and Luca's played zero. So just not a lot
Speaker 1: of those guys on the floor. So, like the question is,
Speaker 1: will they keep Clay on the move when everyone is healthy,
Speaker 1: because I think that's an important part of their resilience
Speaker 1: on offense against the best defenses in the league. So no,
Speaker 1: I don't care that Clay is missing in preseason because
Speaker 1: it's not relevant to what he'll be doing in the
Speaker 1: regular season or why they signed him to begin with.
Speaker 1: But he is cold to start the year. Who is
Speaker 1: hot The Boston Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. Every offense
Speaker 1: in the league is struggling to start the preseason, which
Speaker 1: is to be expected. Guys are getting back in shape,
Speaker 1: they're learning new sets, they're learning how to play with
Speaker 1: new players. There's a lot of like end of the
Speaker 1: bench guys playing. But there are two teams that have
Speaker 1: picked up right where they left off offensively, the Boston
Speaker 1: Celtics and the Indiana Pacers. Boston is the best net
Speaker 1: rating in the league so far in preseason. They're outscoring
Speaker 1: teams by sixteen point three points per one hundred possessions.
Speaker 1: They have the best offense in the league, a one
Speaker 1: twenty one offensive rating. Jason Tatum, it looks like he
Speaker 1: is returning to form. Jump shot looks great. He's getting
Speaker 1: one point two points per catch and shoot jump shot
Speaker 1: so far in preseason one point zero eight points per
Speaker 1: pull up jump shot. You know, after the postseason run
Speaker 1: where he didn't shoot well, it was a pretty quick
Speaker 1: turnaround to the Olympics, and anytime that he had in
Speaker 1: that stretch, he needed to focus on giving his body
Speaker 1: a rest after a crazy nine month basketball campaign, right,
Speaker 1: So like he had to go straight into the Olympics
Speaker 1: without much of an opportunity to really work on his
Speaker 1: jump shot. Not to mention that was kind of an
Speaker 1: awkward situation for him in terms of a shift in role,
Speaker 1: bunch of different players already in a slump and now
Speaker 1: he's looking from the outside in in terms of the rotation. Right, So,
Speaker 1: like he didn't really have much of a chance after
Speaker 1: the Olympics. Sometimes you just need to get out of
Speaker 1: playing five on five and just get into a gym
Speaker 1: and work on your game. Sometimes you need to disconnect
Speaker 1: from the results. So who cares if you miss? Who
Speaker 1: cares if you go into the gym and miss twenty
Speaker 1: five shots in a row. You're working on your shot,
Speaker 1: whereas if you're just playing basketball and you're missing shots,
Speaker 1: it can cause you to continue to spiral in terms
Speaker 1: of your confidence.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Well, it's very clear that Jason spent a bunch of
Speaker 1: time over the last few months polishing up that jump shot,
Speaker 1: and he just looks more fluid, more confident. He also
Speaker 1: looks super athletic. He had three dunks against Toronto, including
Speaker 1: this like crazy poster dunk on a rip the remove
Speaker 1: from the left wing in the half court. He's playing
Speaker 1: really well out of the post. He's turned ten post
Speaker 1: ups into twelve points including passes. Just a great start
Speaker 1: for him. Again, I was very aware of the fact
Speaker 1: that Tatum was in an extended shooting slump that was
Speaker 1: stemming from the postseason into the Olympics, but I always
Speaker 1: felt like it was a temporary thing. There was never
Speaker 1: a moment where I thought Tatum had forgotten how to shoot,
Speaker 1: or like, oh now he's just too buff and he's
Speaker 1: never going to be able to shoot again. No, that
Speaker 1: was silly, like he's too talented of a player who
Speaker 1: works too damn hard. There was always a ver There
Speaker 1: was always going to be this outcome, which is Tatum
Speaker 1: the career great shooter was going or at least career
Speaker 1: good shooter was going to become a good shooter again
Speaker 1: and again the pull up jump shot, in particular, picking
Speaker 1: up where he left off in like that January stretch
Speaker 1: last year when he was shooting the seams off the basketball.
Speaker 1: Would be curious to see how that goes over the
Speaker 1: course of the season. Lots of bench guys for Boston
Speaker 1: look good to start the season. Pritchard is locked in.
Speaker 1: He's shooting forty nine percent from three on nine attempts
Speaker 1: per games. Xavier Tillman shooting super well, providing some quality
Speaker 1: center minutes. Again, those are going to be so important
Speaker 1: to start the year two as they keep Al Horford's
Speaker 1: minutes down and as Porzingis is recovering from his injury.
Speaker 1: Jordan Walsh looks like he can crack the rotation, just
Speaker 1: good size on the wing. He's been rebounding super well
Speaker 1: with those bench scripts, which again is going to be important,
Speaker 1: especially as you're playing lower quality centers a lot in
Speaker 1: the early part of the season. Lonnie Walker has had
Speaker 1: some really nice driving kick possessions, but we all knew
Speaker 1: that was going to be the case with his athleticism
Speaker 1: in that spacing. Boston just hasn't missed a beat. They
Speaker 1: look super sharp to start the year. Indiana shooting the
Speaker 1: three ball really well. They have the fourth highest three
Speaker 1: point percentage of all teams so far in preseason. Ben
Speaker 1: Matherin's shooting really well. Pascal Siakam's over fifty percent from three,
Speaker 1: aaron Nei Smith's over fifty percent from three. Tyris Halliburton
Speaker 1: is shooting the ball really well. Nem Har's doing pretty
Speaker 1: well as well. Jaris Walker, the draft pick from last year.
Speaker 1: He's shooting it really well. He's over fifty percent from
Speaker 1: three in preseason. Over two thirds of their baskets are assisted,
Speaker 1: and their top ten in transition offense again, so basically
Speaker 1: just picking up right where they left off on offense. Now,
Speaker 1: They're defense looks atrocious. They are the worst defense in
Speaker 1: the NBA so far in preseason by defensive rating, But
Speaker 1: at least their offense is picking up right where it
Speaker 1: left off. Who is not Karl Anthony Towns's jump shot.
Speaker 1: He's just five for twenty one so far in preseason,
Speaker 1: just one for eight when he's unguarded, which is interesting,
Speaker 1: just kind of just noise in a small sample size.
Speaker 1: I don't think of it. I think much of it
Speaker 1: at all. Am I worried about it? No, he's getting
Speaker 1: great looks. Those eight unguarded looks, every single one of
Speaker 1: them has come either out of a pick and pop
Speaker 1: or a transition trailer situation. Those are situations that are
Speaker 1: going to be there throughout the season. I've broken down
Speaker 1: the pick and pop on many different occasions, whether it's
Speaker 1: a ball screen, a dribble handoff, or an off ball screen.
Speaker 1: Anytime Cat screens for somebody who tries to turn the
Speaker 1: corner and go downhill, Kat's defender, who is almost always
Speaker 1: going to be a center, is programmed mentally to naturally
Speaker 1: sink back to help contain guy coming downhill, even if
Speaker 1: it's not part of the game plan. Guys will make
Speaker 1: mistakes by doing that sort of thing just simply because
Speaker 1: they're big guys. That's what they've done their entire career.
Speaker 1: And there's a guy curling over his screen heading downhill
Speaker 1: into the lane, and you got to do something about it.
Speaker 1: In those situations, cat sets the screen and instead of rolling,
Speaker 1: he just flows back to that above the brake line
Speaker 1: and just waits for the ball to come back to him.
Speaker 1: He's gonna get tons of good looks like that all year.
Speaker 1: Transition trailer situations are another situation where Kat's getting a
Speaker 1: ton of good looks in preseason. Another very basic concept.
Speaker 1: Bigs are trained on transition defense all the time, right,
Speaker 1: especially because they are typically slower footed than the wings
Speaker 1: and guards at every level of basketball, and so their
Speaker 1: coaches are just non stop talking to them. I need
Speaker 1: you to run, I need you to run, I need
Speaker 1: you to sprint, I need you to get up and
Speaker 1: down the floor. Got to stay in this foot race, right. Well,
Speaker 1: for the most part, they're running to the rim. They
Speaker 1: run to the rim on both ends of the floor,
Speaker 1: especially at the lower levels of basketball. It's run the
Speaker 1: rim just straight from like just on both ends of
Speaker 1: the floor. Like even on offense, it's like you're just
Speaker 1: running to the rim, right, it's all rim running, right,
Speaker 1: and so on defense, a lot of these big guys,
Speaker 1: when they're guarding Karl Anthony Towns and there's a transition
Speaker 1: wave come in, those guys sink into the lane just naturally.
Speaker 1: How many bigs are thinking in transition, like I need
Speaker 1: to sprint back and then locate Cat at the three
Speaker 1: point line. Even if that's the game plan, it fights
Speaker 1: against their natural instincts. And there were a lot of
Speaker 1: plays so far in preseason where just everyone's going down
Speaker 1: the floor, here comes Kat rumbling down behind everybody and
Speaker 1: just stopping right there at the top of the key
Speaker 1: and getting a wide open look. Again, he hasn't been
Speaker 1: making them yet, but he's too good of a shooter
Speaker 1: not to make them just small sample sized noise. I
Speaker 1: expect him to feast on those types of looks throughout
Speaker 1: this season. I expect them to go in, and I
Speaker 1: expect them to help the Knicks offense in a big way.
Speaker 2: Who is HoTT the Wolves back court?
Speaker 1: Dante Devincenzo six for twelve on jump shots so far,
Speaker 1: one point four to two points per shot, three for
Speaker 1: five off the dribble. He's run eleven ball screens including
Speaker 1: passes that have generated thirteen points. That's a really good
Speaker 1: efficiency number. And he's an excellent defensive player and rebounder
Speaker 1: at the guard position. I can't help but wonder I'm
Speaker 1: actually gonna ask Sam Vassini about this to see what
Speaker 1: he's thinking in our recording here later this afternoon. But
Speaker 1: I can't help but wonder if this story ends with
Speaker 1: Dante as the starting too, and with Mike Conley coming
Speaker 1: off the bench. I just think Dante is a better
Speaker 1: player at this phase in his career. I think he
Speaker 1: is like a force multiplier for the athleticism in defense
Speaker 1: that that starting unit brings. I think at this phase
Speaker 1: of his career, because of his ability to get moving
Speaker 1: and to quickly elevate off the catch and shoot, he's
Speaker 1: actually a be spacer than Mike Conley. He's not the
Speaker 1: connector that Mike Conley is, But at the same time,
Speaker 1: Dante is a quality connector. I just think he's a
Speaker 1: better player, and I think in the long run, you
Speaker 1: could make a case that he's going to end up
Speaker 1: starting next to Ant just beautiful fits. So far in preseason,
Speaker 1: Anthony Edwards is still shooting the seams off the basketball.
Speaker 1: He's twelve for twenty three on jump shots, one point
Speaker 1: four to eight points per attempt. Now, this is where
Speaker 1: we got to start looking at a pretty substantial sample
Speaker 1: size here, going back to last year. In the postseason,
Speaker 1: ant is getting one point one zero points per jump
Speaker 1: shot in the playoffs on one hundred and eighty four attempts,
Speaker 1: one point one four points per jump shot. In all
Speaker 1: of the Team USA games, that's sixty nine attempts one
Speaker 1: point two eight points per shot. In the real Olympic games,
Speaker 1: that's forty seven percent field goals on thirty six attempts.
Speaker 1: So in high leverage Olympic games, hit damn near half
Speaker 1: of his jump shots. And now he's at one point
Speaker 1: four to eight points per attempt on twenty three attempts.
Speaker 1: So we're literally at all almost four hundred attempts excuse me,
Speaker 1: almost three hundred attempts of just Aunt being an elite shooter,
Speaker 1: spanning seven months, several different basketball situations, super high leverage.
Speaker 2: Games, and he's just shooting the ball really well.
Speaker 1: Most of my projection with Aunt is geared around him
Speaker 1: being an elite jump shooter, and his recent stretch has
Speaker 1: to be real in order for that to be the case,
Speaker 1: and so far it has been. And so that's super
Speaker 1: exciting if you're a Wolves fan, because if Ant's just
Speaker 1: going to be a deadly shooter, now we're talking about
Speaker 1: a guy that has the potential to be the best
Speaker 1: player in the world one day, one last random Timberwolves
Speaker 1: shoutout josh Miynutt. The Wolves are kind of thin at forward.
Speaker 1: This is something we talked about in our season preview
Speaker 1: because of the loss of Kyle Anderson. They needed someone
Speaker 1: to pop, right They josh Myno. Six 's eight, little thin,
Speaker 1: not quite as big as Kyle Anderson was, right, but
Speaker 1: very very vertically athletic, shooting the ball super well. He's
Speaker 1: five for ten on three so far preseason. He's run
Speaker 1: seven self creation possessions so ISO's pick and rolls, post ups.
Speaker 1: He's converted them into nine points. Showed a little bit
Speaker 1: of off the dribble pop, bringing functional size and athleticism.
Speaker 1: He's rebounding at a rate of nine point five rebounds
Speaker 1: per thirty six minutes so far in preseason. So like
Speaker 1: josh Minot ends up just slotting into that Kyle Anderson
Speaker 1: spot as like a bench forward that could be a
Speaker 1: huge depth piece for the Minnesota Timberwolves this year. Who
Speaker 1: is not the Denver Nuggets. They got smashed by the
Speaker 1: Thunder last night, albeit without Nicole Yokich or Jamal Murray,
Speaker 1: but they've dropped to zero to four in preseason they
Speaker 1: have a minus fourteen point seven net rating so far
Speaker 1: in preseason. That's the worst in the Western Conference by
Speaker 1: a mile. Only the Washington Wizards have been worse among
Speaker 1: NBA teams. Mike Malone last night was asked whether or
Speaker 1: not he was sensing an air of revenge from the
Speaker 1: Nuggets in preseason. He just flatly said, no, Jamal Murray
Speaker 1: hasn't looked good. They've looked a little apathetic. If you're
Speaker 1: looking for like a revenge campaign with a bunch of
Speaker 1: verve and intensity, it just hasn't been there now. Mike
Speaker 1: Malone also said he's still confident that when they're healthy,
Speaker 1: they can accomplish what they want to accomplish.
Speaker 2: And the numbers show that.
Speaker 1: I mean, Nikole Jokic on the floor in preseason, they're
Speaker 1: plus five point four net, So like they're still doing
Speaker 1: really well when he's on the floor. There's two games
Speaker 1: against the Celtics in there, so, like, as you guys know,
Speaker 1: I just did my season previews yesterday. I still have
Speaker 1: Denver as my number two team in the league and
Speaker 1: I picked to win the Western Conference. So I am
Speaker 1: still high on Denver and I would never change that
Speaker 1: pick based on four preseason games with limited availability of
Speaker 1: your stars. However, it's hard to not be at least
Speaker 1: a little bit annoyed at the general lack of urgency
Speaker 1: to start the season in Denver. Who is hot the
Speaker 1: Warriors movement shooters. I was watching Warriors Pistons yesterday and
Speaker 1: I was amazed that there are ability to run quality
Speaker 1: offense without Steph Curry on the floor. But it's built
Speaker 1: off of a very simple concept. They have a bunch
Speaker 1: of guys who are willing and able to take jump
Speaker 1: shots on the move. This is important because it forces
Speaker 1: whoever's defending them to chase over the top. If they're
Speaker 1: just looking to drive on curls, or if they're not
Speaker 1: competent or comfortable shooting running off of off ball action
Speaker 1: or off of dribble handoffs, their defender in all likelihood
Speaker 1: is going to go underneath those screens and contain the
Speaker 1: basketball and dare you to shoot. You have to have
Speaker 1: a general willingness and ability to hit movement jump shots
Speaker 1: in order in the Warrior system in order for guys
Speaker 1: to chase over the top, and they do. Buddy Heal
Speaker 1: locked in to start the season looks like a shoe
Speaker 1: Infit he's getting one point four to six points per
Speaker 1: jump shot on thirty five attempts so far. The Anthony
Speaker 1: Melton willing and able to take movement jump shots, Moses
Speaker 1: Moody willing and able to take movement jump shots, Brandon
Speaker 1: Pajemski able to make movement jump shots. Lindy Waters looks
Speaker 1: like a guy who, like legitimately could be in this rotation.
Speaker 1: Now again, that's the issue. Too many guys that look
Speaker 1: like rotation players. For the Warrior, Steph was talking about
Speaker 1: it and how some guys are gonna get their feelings
Speaker 1: hurt and we'll see what happens. But in order to
Speaker 1: be able to put together a functional offense without a superstar,
Speaker 1: you have to be able to run action and have
Speaker 1: guys be threats within that action. So if you're running
Speaker 1: action and you've got five guys that are not named
Speaker 1: Steph Curry that are willing and able to come off
Speaker 1: of an off ball screen and knock down a jump
Speaker 1: shot that forces guys to chase as soon as it
Speaker 1: forces guys to chase, and the big guys to show,
Speaker 1: meaning the guys who are defending the screeners to show
Speaker 1: on the other side of the screens. That's when you
Speaker 1: start to get opportunities for guys slipping or rolling to
Speaker 1: the basket. In those situations, you need guys who screen
Speaker 1: well and can playmake well on the role. Tray Jackson, Davis,
Speaker 1: Kevon Looney, Gary Payton, the second Kyle Anderson who was
Speaker 1: awesome against Lakers again last night. Like, having guys that
Speaker 1: are willing and able to do that is the other
Speaker 1: side of that offensive kind of bracket in terms of
Speaker 1: how you make those actions function. That is that simple
Speaker 1: action just having guys who are willing to come off
Speaker 1: of screens shooting and guys who set good screens and
Speaker 1: can playmake on the role. That simple combination gives you
Speaker 1: a pretty high floor offensively. Now, we all know if
Speaker 1: you run into a super elite defense that's super locked in,
Speaker 1: there are limitations on the talent level with this Warriors roster, right,
Speaker 1: we all know that that Steph is basically the only
Speaker 1: guy on the entire roster that you can trust to
Speaker 1: consistently generate quality shots against the best defenses in the league.
Speaker 1: But the floor is super high because of this foundation.
Speaker 1: And this is a testament to how good of a
Speaker 1: coach Steve Kerr is and how good leaders Steph and Draymond.
Speaker 1: Are you just know they're going to maximize the talent
Speaker 1: on this roster by virtue of having functional talent that
Speaker 1: fits a system and then insistent commitment to the details
Speaker 1: on a night in a night out basis. The bench groups,
Speaker 1: in particular for the Warriors last night, kicked the shit
Speaker 1: out of the Lakers. That to me is a sign
Speaker 1: of organizational competence and intensity. Nice start for the Golden
Speaker 1: State Warriors in preseason this year.
Speaker 2: Who is not?
Speaker 1: This is our last segment of the show, the Lakers
Speaker 1: shot selection. Last night, the Lakers took thirty four catch
Speaker 1: and shoot jump shots, only seven of them, according to Synergy,
Speaker 1: were logged as unguarded, So twenty seven of their thirty
Speaker 1: four catch and shoot attempts last night were considered guarded.
Speaker 1: This preseason so far, sixty four percent of the catch
Speaker 1: and shoot jump shots that the Lakers have taken have
Speaker 1: classified as guarded by Synergy. Remember, last year, more than
Speaker 1: half of the Lakers shots were considered unguarded in catch
Speaker 1: and shoot situations in the regular season, so they were
Speaker 1: going at forty nine percent guarded catch and shoot jump
Speaker 1: shots last year in the regular season. To sixty four
Speaker 1: percent guarded catch and shoot jump shots in preseason so far,
Speaker 1: they are simply just forcing a lot of bad shots.
Speaker 1: It's crazy watching them too, because I mean, even last
Speaker 1: night against the Lakers, it's like, how many of these
Speaker 1: attempts are just they dribble the ball off the floor
Speaker 1: and they throw a pass to somebody on the wing,
Speaker 1: and that dude on the wing has just a tiny
Speaker 1: bit of separation and he just lets it fly from three.
Speaker 1: Those aren't good shots. Those are shots you can get
Speaker 1: later in the clock. Remember, the specific reason why the
Speaker 1: Laker offense was awesome last year was they dominated the
Speaker 1: paint and they were deadly on wide open threes that
Speaker 1: they generated off of those paint touches. That's why they
Speaker 1: were such a high three point percentage team and an
Speaker 1: offensive rating. Remember, they were the third best offense in
Speaker 1: the league over the final forty six games of the season,
Speaker 1: that is more than half the season. This was not
Speaker 1: an offense that needed a dramatic shift in approach. This
Speaker 1: was an offense that needed minor tweaking. Okay, now again,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be overly critical of JJ Reddick
Speaker 1: in this regard, because anytime that you come in and
Speaker 1: try to implement new things. There's always sloppiness, and it
Speaker 1: is way too soon after a handful of preseason games
Speaker 1: to act as though we have enough of a sample
Speaker 1: size to just commit ourselves to this idea that JJ's
Speaker 1: screwing things up. That's not what's happening here. I'm just saying,
Speaker 1: on a small sample size, I think the Lakers are
Speaker 1: taking too many bad shots. They're only getting zero point
Speaker 1: eight to two points per attempt in those contested catch
Speaker 1: and shoot jump shots that they're taking, so they're not
Speaker 1: actually helping the offense. And again, there's a ton of
Speaker 1: other positivity. He's added a lot of structure. They're running
Speaker 1: more organized offense on a higher percentage of their possessions.
Speaker 1: They are talking about and emphasizing the right things. I
Speaker 1: am overall positive on the jj FIH with the Lakers,
Speaker 1: but this specific approach to increasing three point volume is
Speaker 1: something that I disagree with. Again, the three point volume
Speaker 1: is not the way that you increase offenses of offensive efficiency.
Speaker 1: As I mentioned last year or last time we talked
Speaker 1: about this, eight of the top twelve three point volume
Speaker 1: teams last year missed the playoffs. Like the actual way
Speaker 1: you increase your offensive efficiency is by hunting the highest
Speaker 1: quality shot on that individual possession. And as we know,
Speaker 1: the highest quality shot in basketball is a quality rim attempt.
Speaker 1: The next highest quality shot in basketball is a quality
Speaker 1: catch and shoot attempt. After that, you can get into
Speaker 1: all these different things in terms of contested rim attempts,
Speaker 1: contested catch and shoot threes, mid range shot attempts, things
Speaker 1: along those lines. And yes, I would like to see
Speaker 1: the Lakers turn some of their contested mid range attempts
Speaker 1: into more catch and shoot threes. I would like to
Speaker 1: see them try to turn more deliberate offensive approach into
Speaker 1: more high quality catch and shoot threes. But the answer
Speaker 1: to improving your efficiency in your shot value is not
Speaker 1: just jacking up more contested catch and shoot threes. Again,
Speaker 1: it's way too early. As I mentioned in our last
Speaker 1: rant about this, there's a whole other element to this,
Speaker 1: which is confidence. Like, if JJ is trying to breed
Speaker 1: confidence in his team, he's going to tell them to
Speaker 1: have just an unbelievable green light and then try to
Speaker 1: parse it back based on results in the season. Okay,
Speaker 1: this guy's just shooting the seams off the basketball. I
Speaker 1: just want him to keep shooting no matter what, anytime
Speaker 1: he gets any space. Okay, this guy's struggling. He's taken
Speaker 1: a lot of bad shots. Let's sit down with him
Speaker 1: and go over some film. Let's try to parse this
Speaker 1: back a little bit. So that's the reason why I'm
Speaker 1: not overreacting to it. There's this whole other confidence element.
Speaker 1: We want to give JJ time to really build this
Speaker 1: out over time. However, in the small sample to start preseason,
Speaker 1: the Lakers approach to increasing the three point volume has
Speaker 1: just been jacking up bad contest to catch and shoot threes.
Speaker 1: That's not a strategy that I agree with, and it
Speaker 1: is something that I will be keeping an eye on
Speaker 1: as we get into the regular season. On the bright side,
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis looks like an absolute monster so far in preseason.
Speaker 1: He had seventeen post ups that have led to twenty
Speaker 1: five points including passes. That's one point four to seven
Speaker 1: points per possession. Last night against the Warriors, he literally
Speaker 1: looked like Ad from the bubble, just knocking down tough
Speaker 1: jump shot after tough jump shot, just fluid scoring, just
Speaker 1: looking like nobody can guard him. If Anthony Davis is
Speaker 1: a bona fide MVP candidate, this year, we have to
Speaker 1: recalibrate the Lakers, and so he's been amazing. Really curious
Speaker 1: to see if that trickles into the regular season. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: that is all I have for today. As always, as
Speaker 1: sincerely appreciate you for supporting the show again. We will
Speaker 1: be back tomorrow with Sanvessini to debate contenders.
Speaker 2: I'll see you guys. Then the volume