1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Why do people sometimes buy into ideas that seem obviously 2 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: falls from the outside, as we see with conspiracy theories. 3 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:17,320 Speaker 1: Is this kind of misbelief a failure of intelligence or 4 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: something deeper and more universal to human brains? Do conspiracy 5 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 1: theories offer a sense of clarity and belonging when reality 6 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 1: feels chaotic and threatening? And what would it take for you, 7 00:00:31,200 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: under the right emotional conditions, to begin believing something that 8 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 1: your past self would find unbelievable. Today we'll speak with 9 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: behavioral economist Dan Arieli, who has thought a lot about misbelief. 10 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: For him, it's a scientific question, but also an interest 11 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:53,320 Speaker 1: that started very personally. Welcome to Inner Cosmos with me, 12 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: David Eagleman. I'm a neuroscientist and author at Stanford and 13 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: in these episodes we sail deeply into our three pounds 14 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: universe to understand how we see the world even when 15 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: it doesn't match the facts. Today we're diving into one 16 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: of the most perplexing phenomena about the mind. When we 17 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 1: think about brains or computers, we think about how to 18 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:33,320 Speaker 1: gather facts about the world and put them together into 19 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: a model. So one of the most interesting problems in 20 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 1: brain science is that of misbelief. Now, I'm not talking 21 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 1: about misinformation here. If someone hands you the wrong fact 22 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: and then you repeat it, that's one thing. I'm talking about, 23 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 1: the deeper psychological journey by which a person becomes convinced 24 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 1: of something that outsiders find totally detached from reality. So 25 00:01:56,040 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: we've got conspiracy theories, medical skepticism, political fan These are 26 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 1: all meaningful forces in our culture. Now, one thing to 27 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: note right away, these aren't new. You can see these 28 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: throughout history, dating back at least two and a half millennia, 29 00:02:11,800 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 1: when people had conspiracy theories about, for example, Socrates's execution 30 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: and who is really behind it? Or the same thing 31 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: happened later with the death of Alexander the Great and 32 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 1: then with the assassination of Julius Caesar. Now, if this 33 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 1: reaction to a national tragedy sounds familiar, it's because it 34 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: is throughout history. Every time there's a significant event, people 35 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: jump in with their hypotheses, and these live in a 36 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:40,519 Speaker 1: spectrum from reasonable to outlandish. I'm not sure if there's 37 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,960 Speaker 1: really an upper limit to how wild the hypotheses are 38 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: likely to get. Now, this all would be nothing but 39 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: an academic interest, except that often crazy ideas are capable 40 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:57,119 Speaker 1: of tilting elections or fracturing political alliances, or influencing things from. 41 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 2: Public health to wars. 42 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: Okay, so whenever we look at historical features that are 43 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: present in every generation like this, it tells us we're 44 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:10,519 Speaker 1: not looking at some local cultural phenomenon or some consequence 45 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,280 Speaker 1: of social media. Instead, we're looking at some issue about 46 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: how brains naturally work and what their failure modes are. 47 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 2: The general story. 48 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: Is that the brain's job is to make good predictions 49 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:29,080 Speaker 1: about the world, to reduce uncertainty, to create coherence from chaos, 50 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: and to generate frameworks that make us feel safe and oriented. 51 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: But under stress, those systems can shift, emotions can become 52 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: louder than evidence, threat detection ramps up, Identity becomes a filter, 53 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: and into this vacuum come narratives that promise clarity. You 54 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: find communities that promise belonging or stories that give you 55 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: a clean explanation for why everything feels wrong. These narratives 56 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 1: are structured to be sticky. Once you take the first step, 57 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: the next one is easier, and before long, someone who 58 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: once trusted the people around them or the institutions around 59 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: them might find themselves trapped in a self reinforcing ecosystem 60 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: of mistrust. Now, I have my own take on conspiracy theories, 61 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,520 Speaker 1: which you can hear in episode sixty six from last year. 62 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,240 Speaker 1: But recently, my friend and colleague Dan Arieli wrote a 63 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: book called Misbelief Now. Dan is a behavioral economist at 64 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: Duke University who has spent his career studying how humans 65 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 1: make decisions, why we often get things wrong and predictable ways, 66 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: and the ways in which our circumstances shape our judgment. 67 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 1: You may know him from his book Predictably Irrational or 68 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: his other excellent books, and you might also know him 69 00:04:47,000 --> 00:04:50,479 Speaker 1: from his enormous body of research over the years. Nan 70 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: is an expert in rationality and trust and incentives, and 71 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 1: this gives him a rare vantage point into why people 72 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 1: fall into conspiracy thinking. His book Misbelief goes further. It's 73 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: a scientific deep dive, but it's also a personal story 74 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: as well. Here in a minute. It starts with his 75 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:14,359 Speaker 1: experience of getting targeted with crazy COVID era conspiracy theories, 76 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: where some people accused him online of collaborating with pharmaceutical 77 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: companies to destroy humanity with COVID. Now, it goes without 78 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: saying that Dan's research hopes to save humanity, not destroy it. 79 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 1: But here's the thing, because he's a super thoughtful person, 80 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,360 Speaker 1: one of the results of being on the barrel end 81 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: of this was a fascination with the process by which 82 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: people take on beliefs, beliefs about other people or the 83 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 1: news media or whatever. He became entranced with the ways 84 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: that people go down a funnel of beliefs to arrive 85 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 1: in a place that's unrecognizable. So here's my interview with 86 00:05:51,760 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: Dan Rilly. So, Dan, you've spent in your career studying rationality, 87 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: but misbelief is more personal. So what you started down 88 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: this road of trying to understand why people have conspiracy theories? 89 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 3: So first of all, you're absolutely right. 90 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 4: And usually when I write books, I finished the research 91 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 4: and then I write about it. 92 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 3: This was a very, very different story. 93 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:28,039 Speaker 4: So COVID started and I dropped everything and I was 94 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:29,719 Speaker 4: just doing COVID related things. 95 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 3: And COVID of courses is. 96 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 4: A problem with biology, but it's also a problem of 97 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 4: social science. Domestic violence increased by about nine hundred percent. 98 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 4: What do you do with remote work, What do you 99 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 4: do with kids studying remotely? What do you do with 100 00:06:46,400 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 4: furlough with firing people, What do you do with government subsidies? 101 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,119 Speaker 4: Lots and lots of big questions. Do you give people 102 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 4: finds for not putting masks? 103 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 3: And so on? 104 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,600 Speaker 4: And I dropped everything and I just did COVID and 105 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 4: I was just trying to do research, trying to understand, 106 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 4: trying to give advice whatever I could. And about five 107 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 4: months into it, I get an email from a woman 108 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 4: I once helped with the presentation she was doing for 109 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 4: her company, and. 110 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 3: She said, Dan, what's wrong? Would you what happened? How 111 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 3: did you become that person? 112 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 4: You know? I don't think very much about this email. 113 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,880 Speaker 4: We get lots of emails, let's send back what do 114 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 4: you mean? And I get back an email with lists 115 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,000 Speaker 4: of links that tell me that I'm an awful person. 116 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 4: For example, there was one link that showed a video 117 00:07:38,880 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 4: of me in the burn department saying that I was 118 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 4: burned when I was eighteen, through seventy percent of my 119 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 4: body through almost three years in hospital. True, but then 120 00:07:47,880 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 4: the video went to say that because of that, I 121 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,720 Speaker 4: started hating healthy people and that's why I joined the 122 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,440 Speaker 4: cabal to try and kill as many people possible. First 123 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 4: with COVID and then with the vaccine there was no 124 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 4: vaccine yet there were videos of me in Nazi uniform 125 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 4: concentration care. 126 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 2: Like. 127 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 4: The amount of things were incredible, and my first reaction 128 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 4: was to set them straight, like this must be some misunderstanding. 129 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:15,000 Speaker 3: How can that be? 130 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,679 Speaker 4: I wake up every day trying to do the best 131 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 4: I can for the world with this very very difficult pandemic, 132 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 4: and these people think I'm evil, Like, how can that be? 133 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 4: But I thought better of it, and I said, let 134 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 4: me call two PR experts and asked what would they do. 135 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:37,560 Speaker 4: People are experts in this, and they said, don't touch it. 136 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 4: And I was very proud that I called them, but 137 00:08:40,840 --> 00:08:46,160 Speaker 4: they couldn't follow their advice. You know, imagine, imagine somebody 138 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 4: came to you and said, David, I know that you're 139 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 4: just an awful person, and here's all the things you've done. 140 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:57,240 Speaker 4: It like feels Anyway, I spend a month trying to 141 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:57,959 Speaker 4: convince people. 142 00:08:58,400 --> 00:09:01,559 Speaker 3: It was awful. It was awful because I showed people 143 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 3: my calendar. People thought I had the contract with Pfizer. 144 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 3: I said, look, I'll show you a way tax with hers. 145 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 3: It was incredible. These people are so convinced. 146 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 4: Anyway, I spent a month trying to convince them, and 147 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 4: I failed terribly felt but in the meantime, the anger 148 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 4: against me increased further and I started getting death threats. 149 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:31,600 Speaker 4: And then I said, okay, I'm not convincing anybody. 150 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 3: Let me stop that. But I truly think that there's 151 00:09:36,040 --> 00:09:39,000 Speaker 3: a big topic here that I need to understand. You know, 152 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 3: I'm a social. 153 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 4: Scientist for a reason, and you know there's something people say, Okay, 154 00:09:43,280 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 4: I believe the earth is flat. Okay, but when somebody 155 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 4: comes to you and say I know something about you, 156 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 4: and he said, no, no, no, I don't have a contract 157 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 4: with Pfiser. How can you say that I have one? 158 00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 4: I had to study this. So the next two years 159 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,080 Speaker 4: I spent. I started by talking to the same people 160 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,640 Speaker 4: who are my accusers, and I called them up and 161 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 4: I said, look, forget about me. I want to understand 162 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 4: your journey. Tell me what happened, like like, you started 163 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 4: with something, At what point did you become somebody with 164 00:10:16,960 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 4: very very different beliefs? 165 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 3: What was the trigger? What happened? 166 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 4: And I try to understand the journey that people move 167 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 4: from being, you know, believing the normal things that people 168 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 4: believe in society to become I call the misbelievers, people 169 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 4: who view the world not just believe in something that 170 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 4: is not correct, but view the world from that lens. 171 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 4: Because the people who who believed that did not just 172 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:47,320 Speaker 4: believe that there was a cabalance so on, they looked at. 173 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 3: Everything through that through that lens. 174 00:10:50,240 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 4: And psychologically I divided into four parts emotion, stress, cognition, personality, 175 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:06,880 Speaker 4: and social And the stress part is the first thing 176 00:11:06,920 --> 00:11:10,160 Speaker 4: where you ask yourself, why would somebody wake up in 177 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 4: the morning and they have a choice. They can believe 178 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,480 Speaker 4: in the benevolent God that is taking care of us 179 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:18,959 Speaker 4: and helps us, and you. 180 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,320 Speaker 3: Don't need to worry and everything has a purpose. 181 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 4: Versus believing that there's a cabau there's a hugely powerful 182 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 4: group of people who are trying to hurt them, poison them, 183 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 4: getting their kids not to have kids so they don't 184 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:34,120 Speaker 4: have grandchildren, trying to all kinds of control. Why would 185 00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 4: somebody want to believe that? It is a very very 186 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 4: strange set of belief. And what I found is that 187 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:48,199 Speaker 4: stress is the answer. So that when people are saying, 188 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,520 Speaker 4: I don't understand the world. I thought things were supposed 189 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 4: to go this way. Why am I hurting? Why am 190 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 4: I hurting more than other people? Why am I not 191 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 4: getting my share of. 192 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 3: Things like that? 193 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 4: We want an answer, and the answer better has a 194 00:12:04,559 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 4: villain and a story, and I'll give you kind of 195 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:13,600 Speaker 4: a kind of My two favorite studies of this. One 196 00:12:13,640 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 4: is a very old study in anthropology where they looked 197 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 4: at tribes and they look at tribes that fish in 198 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 4: the ocean versus tribe that fish in lakes. And of 199 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 4: course the tribe that fish in the lake have much 200 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 4: more predictable life. The lake is basically the same every day. 201 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 4: The ocean has huge fluctuations. Which tribes have more superstitions 202 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 4: or the ocean? 203 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:40,120 Speaker 3: Why? 204 00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 4: Because it gives you a feeling of control, feeling of control. 205 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 4: Or I'll give you another example. And you know these 206 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 4: studies about white noise, not not hearing, but sight. So 207 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 4: you have a picture with black and white thoughts randomly organized. 208 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 2: Like an all television screening. 209 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, and you show them, You say do you see 210 00:13:01,400 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 4: an image? And people say yes, no, yes, and no. 211 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 4: It turns out that as you increase stress, for example, 212 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 4: you go skydiving, the more stress you have, the more 213 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 4: patterns you see. Now, why does this happen? Imagine you're 214 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 4: an animal in the jungle and you think there's a predator. 215 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 4: What is your mind doing? It goes into hyper drives, saying, well, 216 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 4: these two leaves are moving, maybe there's a tiger there. 217 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 4: You overinterpret patterns because you want to make sense of 218 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 4: the work. So the first thing to understand is that 219 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 4: when people feel stressed, like kind of learned helplessness, kind 220 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 4: of stressed, I don't understand the world. Things are not 221 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:49,199 Speaker 4: going my way, there's a temptation to solve that problem 222 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 4: by creating a belief that says, I now understand what's 223 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 4: going on. It's the bad entities creating this bad outcome. 224 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 4: You can't say, oh, something bad happen and to be 225 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 4: I believe this is a benevolent God because you're trying 226 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 4: to explain the bad thing. And then from there are 227 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 4: things a theory we can talk about this, but that 228 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 4: that's the starting point. 229 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,480 Speaker 3: We say, why would people start believing that? 230 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: And so walk us through the funnel that people go 231 00:14:16,840 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: through as they go from having some idea all the 232 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 1: way to full blown belief. 233 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, so you start with this beginning, I'm stressed, things 234 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 4: are not going well. What is going on? You start, 235 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 4: you go YouTube, you try to understand, you find some 236 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:35,680 Speaker 4: beginning of a journey, and that gives you comfort. Shorten, 237 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 4: it gives you comfort because you say, oh, now I 238 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 4: understand it's not my fault, it's these people and so on, 239 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 4: and then things can't keepe. So they continue through cognitive processes, 240 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 4: and there's a few of them, but let's talk about one. 241 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 4: And so you know, first of all, we all know 242 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 4: that we don't view all the information. 243 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 3: We view the information that agrees. 244 00:14:56,680 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 4: With us, right We what we like from the media 245 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 4: is to tell us, oh, you're really smart, you know 246 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 4: all this, you know everything, but here's something extra new, 247 00:15:05,760 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 4: but you're very genuinely correct. We don't want to be 248 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 4: confronted with things that would say you're an idiot, you 249 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 4: have no idea what you're talking about the world is 250 00:15:13,080 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 4: very different than what you think. So we look for 251 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 4: things that as our confirmation pots. So that's the beginning. 252 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 4: But one of the interesting version of the cognitive part 253 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 4: is what is called the illusion of explanatory depth. And 254 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 4: the way I kind of tested it in one experiment 255 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 4: was with flash toilets. So I show people a flash toilet. 256 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 4: Do you understand how a flash toilet works? Absolutely? On 257 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 4: the scale from one to seven, almost seven. That's wonderful. 258 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 4: Here all the pieces for a perfectly brand new flash toilet, 259 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 4: please assemble it. What do you think is the percentage 260 00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 4: of people who manage to assemble it? Zero? And then 261 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 4: I asked them, and how well do you understand flash toilet? 262 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,080 Speaker 4: And say, you know what, not so much. Now, think 263 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 4: about it. In a regular conversation, we go at people, 264 00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:11,280 Speaker 4: we argue, they argue, We argue, they argue at the 265 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 4: end of those so they we think about you, all 266 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 4: your debate in the last three years, how many of 267 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 4: them ended when the other person is saying, you know what. 268 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 3: I've never heard such good arguments. I'm changing my opinion completely. 269 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 3: You're absolutely correct. 270 00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 2: Right, zero small number? 271 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 4: And how many ended the other way when you said 272 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:37,720 Speaker 4: to somebody, you know what. 273 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:41,040 Speaker 3: I'm being good. It's a really interesting thing because when 274 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 3: we discuss things with people, the mechanism is that we 275 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:49,200 Speaker 3: counter argue when we say things. We say things, and 276 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 3: when they see things we already counter argue. I think 277 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 3: that's kind of. 278 00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 4: I don't know if it was always the case like this, 279 00:16:55,200 --> 00:17:00,880 Speaker 4: but we're not working toward joint new understand ending. We're 280 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 4: really kind of protecting our position. And what the illusion 281 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 4: of explanatory depth says is, don't worry about the facts initially, 282 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 4: worry about overconfidence. So with the flash dollar, don't worry 283 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 4: about the facts, worry about crush people's overconfidence first, and 284 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,320 Speaker 4: then we can talk later. So the strategy is to 285 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:30,240 Speaker 4: say people are resisting facts because of their overconfidence, and 286 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 4: what we need to do for persuasion is to first 287 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 4: think about them the overconfryt. 288 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:38,760 Speaker 1: So a lot of listeners are probably familiar with the 289 00:17:38,840 --> 00:17:41,680 Speaker 1: Dunning Kruger effect, which is the less you know about 290 00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 1: a topic, the more confident you are that you know It's. 291 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:47,920 Speaker 3: It's not the less, it's it's. 292 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 4: A function where it's like when you know something, you're 293 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 4: the most dangerous. It's when you know nothing, you know 294 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 4: you know nothing, When you know a lot, you know 295 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 4: you know a lot. 296 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 3: The danger then in Kruger effect is when you know 297 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 3: a little. 298 00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 4: Like the metaphor is like first year undergrad, you finished 299 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:11,240 Speaker 4: right the introductory to biology textbook, Okay, I know biologic 300 00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 4: yes exactly. 301 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 1: And by the way, with the illusion of explanatory depth, 302 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,639 Speaker 1: and one I always uses the electoral college, I asked people, hey, 303 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:17,920 Speaker 1: do you. 304 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 2: Know how that works. They say, yeah, now that works. 305 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 2: I said, great, can you explain it to me? 306 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 1: Nobody is nobody so far has been able to really 307 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:24,440 Speaker 1: tell me all the way down. 308 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,199 Speaker 4: And by the way we used it with the Trump elections, 309 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 4: some people thought that he that you won. And we 310 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 4: came to people and we said, you think the Trump 311 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 4: on the election, Yes, you think the elections were stolen. Yes, 312 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:40,240 Speaker 4: explain to us how, but walk us through the details. 313 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 4: People go into the booth what happens. And people did 314 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 4: not say, oh, you know, he really lost the election, 315 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 4: but they said, you know what, I don't know how 316 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 4: it really happened. So the illusional it's a very important 317 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 4: issue to go into the mechanism and get people to 318 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:55,960 Speaker 4: be more modest about their beliefs. 319 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 3: That's right. 320 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,439 Speaker 1: Does that actually change anybody's mind? Now, let's say you 321 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 1: felt the election was stolen and you don't know how 322 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 1: because you feel like, look, it's a big world, hundreds 323 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,679 Speaker 1: of millions of people doing things in the United States. 324 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: I can't know all the details, and yet I have 325 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 1: reasona believe that's true. Would increase intellectual humility do anything 326 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 1: in that situation, or would a person still say, look, 327 00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:21,840 Speaker 1: there's no way for me to know the answer to that, 328 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:25,679 Speaker 1: But I have other reasons to believe this, So. 329 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 4: Let me say that you're right. So intellectual humility is 330 00:19:31,000 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 4: the is the key. And of course we teach our 331 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 4: students to say not knowing is great and not knowing 332 00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:38,000 Speaker 4: is a very good thing. 333 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 3: So I would say that I believe it very strongly. 334 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 4: I believe that if you think about misbelief and you say, 335 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:50,720 Speaker 4: there's the belief in something that is not true, and 336 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 4: there's adopting it as a perspective on life. So I 337 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 4: think the earth is flat, and I'm looking at everything 338 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 4: from the perspective that the earth is flat. I think 339 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 4: that the illusion of explanatory depth of intellectual humility would 340 00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:08,640 Speaker 4: reduce the second part first, So I would not look 341 00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 4: at the world from that lens initially because I'm not 342 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 4: the moment, you know, one hundred percent sure it's not 343 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 4: a lens from which you view things. But this is 344 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 4: kind of a general argument. I'll tell you what I 345 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 4: have data about. So I have now a site where 346 00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 4: I invite Antisemites to talk to me Solemn Israeli and 347 00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 4: Jewish I. October seventh was terrible in all kinds of ways. 348 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 4: But when October seven happened, I decided to come to 349 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 4: Israel as quickly as possible, and the flight I could 350 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 4: take came through London, and I was in London during 351 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:57,520 Speaker 4: the first prop Palestinian demonstration, and this was before Israel 352 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 4: went to Gaza, and there were already a lot of 353 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 4: anger told Israel. Even though Israel just suffered a huge 354 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 4: attack and didn't do anything. My daughter, who was in 355 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 4: high school, almost got canceled. Her mother, my ex wife, 356 00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,640 Speaker 4: is Indian, so my daughter is, you know, half Jewish Israeli, 357 00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 4: half Indian and Hindu, both my kids. But she was 358 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 4: at the risk of being canceled just just by having 359 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,119 Speaker 4: this affiliation. And she didn't vote for she doesn't have 360 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 4: a citizenship in Israel. She didn't vote for the Antennao government, 361 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 4: and nobody in her family did. But she felt unbelievably attacked, 362 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 4: and the antisemitism part. 363 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:43,920 Speaker 3: Was very, very surprising. 364 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 4: So anyway, so I opened this website that I'm trying 365 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 4: to understand antisemitism, and I invite people to nominate antisemites 366 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 4: that I should talk to, and then once or twice 367 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 4: a week I have discussions with anti Semites, and I 368 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,400 Speaker 4: don't talk to anti Zionists. I don't talk to people 369 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 4: who just have complains about the Nathaniel government, which I. 370 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 3: Do as well. 371 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:08,879 Speaker 4: I talk to people who define themselves as antisemite, and 372 00:22:09,000 --> 00:22:12,119 Speaker 4: I do with them this exercise we just talked about. 373 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,239 Speaker 3: I say, I'm not trying to convince you. 374 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 4: Just tell me, like, when was the first time you 375 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:21,919 Speaker 4: heard negative things about Jewish people? In most cases it 376 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 4: comes from early childhood and how did it develop and 377 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 4: what else did you learn and who did you meet? 378 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 4: And I we basically talk about the evolution of the idea. 379 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:36,479 Speaker 4: And I would say that almost everybody at the end 380 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 4: of the conversation says, I still am antisemite, but I 381 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 4: know that not all Jewish people are like this, So 382 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 4: there is And by the way, one of the triggers 383 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,440 Speaker 4: that I think is very interesting is when people recognize 384 00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 4: that they got this idea very early on at home. 385 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 4: When somebody says I heard it when I was, you know, 386 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,640 Speaker 4: before Elmntory school for my father, who said a few things, 387 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 4: and I said, okay, so did I really come to 388 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 4: that conclusion or was I given it? So for me, 389 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 4: kind of this exercise of where did you get this idea? 390 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 4: When did you test it? When did you test reality? 391 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 4: And so on? 392 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 3: Seems to be very good for. 393 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,800 Speaker 4: People not to change your opinion, but say, you know what, 394 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 4: I know it's more nuanced than that. And that's really 395 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 4: all I can hope for in a discussion, to say 396 00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:31,000 Speaker 4: I'm more nuanced in that. 397 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 1: Okay, so many people imagine that conspiracy theorists are uneducated, 398 00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,480 Speaker 1: but in fact your research shows they can be perfectly 399 00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 1: smart people. 400 00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:55,679 Speaker 2: So what's your take on that. 401 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, first of all, I don't like the term conspiracy theorists, 402 00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 4: and it's derogatory by now, so I adopt the term 403 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 4: misbelievers and again, and the other thing about it is 404 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:13,440 Speaker 4: that it's not just believing in something that is wrong. 405 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:16,160 Speaker 4: It's about adopting that as a perspective. I think it's 406 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:19,879 Speaker 4: very important. So, you know, when I ask people what 407 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 4: is the least harmful wrong belief, people say the Earth 408 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 4: is flat, because if you don't believe in COVID, you 409 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 4: might in fact other people, you might do all kinds 410 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 4: of things. If you believe that the Earth is flat, 411 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 4: you're not going to change the curvature of the Earth. 412 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,880 Speaker 4: But it turns out that people who believe the Earth 413 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 4: is flat that belief expands because they believe that the 414 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 4: US government is lying and NASA is lying, and every 415 00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 4: airplane pilot knows the truth, and they're lying, and every 416 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:51,720 Speaker 4: government knows the truth, they're lying. 417 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,400 Speaker 3: And then no satellites. 418 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 4: And and they look at everything through what else are 419 00:24:55,920 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 4: they doing to So it's it's a really for me. 420 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 4: The issue is not just I don't believe in x is. 421 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:09,199 Speaker 4: There's a sense of perspective in everything. One of the 422 00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,879 Speaker 4: women we talked to for the book who really hated 423 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 4: me the beginning and decided to hate me a little 424 00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 4: less after COVID she called me up. 425 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:21,400 Speaker 3: She had cancer. 426 00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:26,399 Speaker 4: She had cancer, and she thought she would consult me 427 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 4: about taking and not taking treatment. I was very much 428 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,159 Speaker 4: in favor of treatment, and she decided not to take it, 429 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 4: and she passed away about a year later. But she 430 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:46,240 Speaker 4: expanded her view to the whole medical system. Everything was corrupt, 431 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:48,640 Speaker 4: everything was wrong, everything was poison. 432 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:50,560 Speaker 3: And so on. 433 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:56,920 Speaker 4: Now, the thing about your question was it's us versus there. 434 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 4: And you know, it's very easy to say, oh, us 435 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 4: the reasonable people, smart, intelligent, understand truth from not and 436 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 4: they're them and so but the reality is that we 437 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:16,679 Speaker 4: have not had the stress some of them had we 438 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 4: had not had the initial conditions for it, and we 439 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:24,840 Speaker 4: can't judge. We can't judge what would have happened to us, 440 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,480 Speaker 4: like what like what sort of initial conditions. So somebody 441 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 4: who lost their job when other people don't. Some people 442 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:39,760 Speaker 4: who had a terrible personal tragedy and they say why 443 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,800 Speaker 4: why me? Some people who invest in the market like 444 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 4: they were supposed to and stock goes down and they. 445 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,920 Speaker 3: Lose, They lose a lot of things. 446 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,280 Speaker 4: So when you think about this initial condition of what 447 00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:57,840 Speaker 4: gets people to start looking at something else. So almost 448 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:03,120 Speaker 4: everybody has in their close circuit somebody that five years ago, 449 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:04,960 Speaker 4: ten years ago, you would say, me and this other 450 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 4: person understand the world in the same way. And now 451 00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:10,800 Speaker 4: they look at that person and say, I just don't 452 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:11,920 Speaker 4: understand how. 453 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:12,040 Speaker 3: We do this. 454 00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 4: Now go back to that person when they started their journey. 455 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:21,160 Speaker 4: Most likely there was some stressful event that a person 456 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 4: wanted to deflect play and then and then they start, 457 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 4: and then they start the journey. And the journey also 458 00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 4: has a lot of frandomness. What do you encounter on YouTube? 459 00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:34,439 Speaker 4: Who do you talk to? 460 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:36,600 Speaker 3: So you know, when we. 461 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 4: Let's say you're in a workplace and there's lots of 462 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 4: people you respect and they have different opinions. You have 463 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,880 Speaker 4: to be exposed to very different opinions. Move to COVID 464 00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 4: your home. You don't talk about chit chat, you don't 465 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:53,639 Speaker 4: talk about other things. Everything you talk at work is 466 00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 4: just over zoom about the work. You don't get exposed 467 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:02,080 Speaker 4: to other people. You join social media, you meet only people. Okay, 468 00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 4: now we're moving to the last part. 469 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:05,960 Speaker 3: The part that. 470 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 4: Consolidates those beliefs, and that's very important whether you move 471 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 4: there or not, is the part in which you leave 472 00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:14,120 Speaker 4: your friends. 473 00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:16,240 Speaker 3: And you join a different group. 474 00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 2: The social aspect to it. 475 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,160 Speaker 4: The social aspect very hard to if you get into 476 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 4: that part, very hard to escape. So you feel ostracized 477 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 4: from your friends, you go into another group that accepts you. 478 00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 4: Then you become more extreme, and then things move from there. 479 00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 4: And by the time, like if you think about the 480 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 4: range of opinions, it kind of keeps intellectual humility. Okay, 481 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 4: I think this, but you think this, and I respect you, 482 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 4: so I'm not going to be one hundred percent sure. 483 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 4: The moment you moved into a group that just has 484 00:28:55,160 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 4: that and uses extreme opinions and signaling, now it becomes 485 00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 4: very very tough, very very tough. So I would say, 486 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:09,120 Speaker 4: if you have somebody in your life that is a misbeliever, 487 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,680 Speaker 4: what you really want to do is stop them early 488 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:18,040 Speaker 4: before they change their social circle to include just people 489 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 4: who believe those thicks. There's one very interesting element in 490 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:29,680 Speaker 4: all of this called she Bullet. So the story of 491 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,120 Speaker 4: she Bullet is that there were this war in the 492 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,840 Speaker 4: Bible between two tribes. After the war, they settled on 493 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,920 Speaker 4: two sides of the river. But you know, the river 494 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,280 Speaker 4: is small, you can move from side to another. So 495 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:43,280 Speaker 4: you walk around and you meet people, and you want 496 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 4: to know if they're your tribe or the other tribe. 497 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 4: And it just so happened that these two tribes pronounce 498 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 4: the name of the plant she bollet slightly differently. One 499 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,000 Speaker 4: of them said she Bollet. One of them said sea Bollet. 500 00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:57,719 Speaker 3: So I meet you. 501 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 4: I said, hey, you, how do you this plant? If 502 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,280 Speaker 4: you say the way I'd say it, you're from my tribe. 503 00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 4: If you say the way the other tribe is saying it, 504 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,320 Speaker 4: I have to chase your way or try to injury. 505 00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 4: And we now use these terms she bullet for a 506 00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 4: discussion that looks like it's about the facts, but It's 507 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 4: really about identity. Because when I show you the plant 508 00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:22,120 Speaker 4: and I ask you what any of this plant? Do 509 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 4: I care about the anair of the plant? 510 00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:24,640 Speaker 3: No. 511 00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,240 Speaker 4: Now, think about how much of the discussion in our 512 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:34,960 Speaker 4: world are she Bullet are really like President Trump in 513 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 4: the election saying the immigrants are eating cats and dogs. 514 00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 4: Is it a statement that he's indicating as truth or 515 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 4: is she Bollet saying, look at my identity, I'm willing 516 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 4: to say such extreme things against immigrants as a signaling 517 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 4: from my identity. So the social element, especially in social media, 518 00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 4: and especially when you want to be seen above the fault, 519 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 4: basically creates this pressure to become more and more extremely 520 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 4: what you say. 521 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:09,600 Speaker 3: It's a very confusing kind of discussion. 522 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 4: Imagine you look today at the news and you try 523 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:17,360 Speaker 4: to figure out what people are saying that it's real, 524 00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 4: and what people are saying that is she Bullet that 525 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,240 Speaker 4: is just singing from. 526 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:23,880 Speaker 3: The river to the sea. 527 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,560 Speaker 4: I mean, it's the people who say from the river 528 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 4: to the sea really mean let's kill everybody in Israel, 529 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,560 Speaker 4: get them get I don't think so some people do, 530 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:38,720 Speaker 4: but I think for most people it's not a statement 531 00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:42,360 Speaker 4: that is real. By the way, the same thing is true. 532 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 4: Lots of lots of Israel's saying statement that are that 533 00:31:47,560 --> 00:31:50,400 Speaker 4: are shep bullet and our are not taken like this. 534 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 4: So but but the thing about she bullet is that 535 00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 4: once you get into that speech, it is very confusing, 536 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 4: and it's also gets things to go into a downward 537 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:06,240 Speaker 4: spiral of what was what was outrageous a year ago 538 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 4: and next year you might need something during it. So 539 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 4: that's kind of the final start with stress, cognition, some 540 00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:18,360 Speaker 4: personality within touch on, and then the social element is 541 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:22,760 Speaker 4: kind of what seals the deal. And maybe the last 542 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,080 Speaker 4: thing to say about all of this is that for me, 543 00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 4: the whole thing is that it kills trust. 544 00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:36,160 Speaker 3: Imagine that was COVID twenty six January. 545 00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,400 Speaker 4: We're going to get new COVID. How prepared are we 546 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 4: for that? And I think we're less prepared for that 547 00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:49,800 Speaker 4: because we can't work together. Everything is political. They're like, 548 00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 4: there's so many things. COVID is an example, but there's 549 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,000 Speaker 4: so many things that we have to work together. Like 550 00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:57,640 Speaker 4: imagine ten years ago they asked us what are the 551 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,920 Speaker 4: big problems of the world. We would say poverty, We 552 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 4: say a list of things. I think now misinformation and 553 00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:10,680 Speaker 4: polarization is at the top, because how can we agree 554 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:14,720 Speaker 4: on any action If we can't agree, we have to 555 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 4: we have to get the shared understanding, caring, seeing each 556 00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 4: other with mutual interest moving forward, and we don't have 557 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 4: any of those, you know. 558 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:28,960 Speaker 1: I just want to come back to this social aspect 559 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 1: because I think there are a couple of other social 560 00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:31,880 Speaker 1: aspects that are. 561 00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 2: That are important but are rarely talked about. 562 00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:39,560 Speaker 1: One is, if you're a conspiracy theorist or a misbeliever, 563 00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:44,479 Speaker 1: you can get to show up at the cocktail party 564 00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:48,200 Speaker 1: and say something and other people think you're pretty smart. 565 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:50,080 Speaker 2: Possibly at least you believe that. 566 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 1: People think that because you're the guy with the answers 567 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: and you get to explain something that everyone else has 568 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:56,720 Speaker 1: been confused about. 569 00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,400 Speaker 4: So so we started with stress and we say you 570 00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 4: feel hard done by the moment, you feel you have 571 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:08,080 Speaker 4: more knowledge than other people. You basically reverse that. So 572 00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 4: the misbelievers caught us sheep for example, They're saying, you 573 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 4: think that I'm not doing well, but really what's happening 574 00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 4: is you don't understand what's going on, and I'm the 575 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 4: one who understand it, So I absolutely agree with you. 576 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:28,919 Speaker 4: The stories people look for are stories that allow them 577 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,839 Speaker 4: to feel more in control but also more knowledgeable, superior 578 00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:33,920 Speaker 4: rather than inferior. 579 00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 1: Yes, And actually this is consistent with what the second thing. 580 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:39,319 Speaker 1: I talked to some kid who had gone pretty far 581 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 1: down the rabbit hole where he felt that everything he. 582 00:34:42,680 --> 00:34:44,319 Speaker 2: Saw on the news and the papers and so on 583 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:45,319 Speaker 2: was lying to him. 584 00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:47,640 Speaker 1: And he explained to me that he felt a sense 585 00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:53,239 Speaker 1: of success at coming to understand, to see through the 586 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:57,279 Speaker 1: veil to learn the truth. He felt really empowered by 587 00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:02,680 Speaker 1: that was the sense of you know, okay, everyone's lying 588 00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:04,360 Speaker 1: to me, and I solve the puzzle. 589 00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:05,919 Speaker 3: That's right. 590 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 4: QAnon QAnon has been an unbelievable like like somebody like 591 00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,879 Speaker 4: somebody compared it to a game. It's really it's really 592 00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:19,120 Speaker 4: a game. There were there's a Q and there were 593 00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 4: people who are interpreting, and there were drops, and there 594 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,399 Speaker 4: was and a You got to feel to be one 595 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,320 Speaker 4: of the elite group that understands how the world works 596 00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,240 Speaker 4: compared to everybody else. It's a very very satisfying feeling. 597 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:34,920 Speaker 4: You know, you and I when we do an experiment 598 00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 4: and we find out something new, we feel at the 599 00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,920 Speaker 4: top of the world in this world. And and by 600 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:43,600 Speaker 4: the way you want a misbelief about something that updates, 601 00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,400 Speaker 4: like there's more news, there's more information that there's a 602 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,440 Speaker 4: keeping keeping on top of that. But yes, but it's 603 00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:55,799 Speaker 4: a very it's a very good feeling of superiority, control, understanding, 604 00:35:56,080 --> 00:35:58,719 Speaker 4: being unique, very very important. 605 00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:17,319 Speaker 1: So if you could design one or two features in 606 00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:20,400 Speaker 1: our information environment and social media or the way we 607 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 1: get our news to lessen the degree of misbelief, what 608 00:36:25,520 --> 00:36:26,719 Speaker 1: would you implement? 609 00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:32,439 Speaker 4: So there's all kinds of simple things to implement, And 610 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,319 Speaker 4: let's take Facebook as an example, but it doesn't it 611 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:39,840 Speaker 4: doesn't have to be Facebook. I would ask people to 612 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:44,840 Speaker 4: separate between facts and opinions. So when you generate something 613 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:48,879 Speaker 4: or so, just tell me fact and opinion. That's one. 614 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,080 Speaker 4: And the second thing I would do is I would 615 00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,600 Speaker 4: when people like something, I would pop up a window 616 00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,080 Speaker 4: and say, are you sure this is the truth? Because 617 00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:06,160 Speaker 4: liking something it's a very ambiguous statement. Are you saying 618 00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:09,319 Speaker 4: it's ridiculous? Are you saying it's true? Are you saying 619 00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:11,239 Speaker 4: it's interesting? I was saying it might be true. What 620 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 4: exactly are you say? So I think that I would 621 00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:20,120 Speaker 4: I would solve those two ambiguities if I could do 622 00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,920 Speaker 4: something else. So I had a lot of discussion with 623 00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:28,000 Speaker 4: the social media networks when I was I started really 624 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:29,880 Speaker 4: bothering when I started getting death threats. 625 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,400 Speaker 3: I got death threats almost every day for two years. 626 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 3: Duke where I teach, they got some very frightening letters 627 00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:40,840 Speaker 3: and that they had to refer to the authorities. It 628 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:43,319 Speaker 3: was a complex periit and I talked to lots of 629 00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:43,840 Speaker 3: those people. 630 00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,680 Speaker 4: By the way it terms that I could convince that 631 00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:52,359 Speaker 4: it's against against just policy standards to threaten someone. 632 00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,680 Speaker 3: And one of the interesting thing. 633 00:37:55,600 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 4: That is happening is that people don't understand this reputation. 634 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:06,120 Speaker 4: So imagine again Facebook, and imagine it. You start posting 635 00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:09,839 Speaker 4: things that people appose, people say, this is this is fair. 636 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:14,759 Speaker 4: What happen is your reputation goes down. So imagine you 637 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,520 Speaker 4: have one hundred thousand followers and when you post something, 638 00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,359 Speaker 4: ten percent of them get it, and then people start 639 00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:25,919 Speaker 4: complaining about you. So your reputation goes down. It doesn't 640 00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 4: go to ten percent, it goes to nine percent or 641 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:33,240 Speaker 4: eight percent. What do you see as an information generating engine? 642 00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,680 Speaker 4: You see less likes, so you said to yourself, let 643 00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:42,440 Speaker 4: me get more aggressive. So ironically, the solution that they 644 00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:49,880 Speaker 4: have is actually doing the opposite. But I think the 645 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:57,360 Speaker 4: easiest thing to do is not allow bots. Think about 646 00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:02,400 Speaker 4: X versus LinkedIn, Like if you came from out of space, 647 00:39:02,440 --> 00:39:04,640 Speaker 4: you would say, these are not the same universe. I 648 00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:07,799 Speaker 4: think what's happening here sin is what's happening here. One 649 00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,920 Speaker 4: is allowing bots and anonymity. One doesn't allow bots and anonymity. 650 00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:16,040 Speaker 4: Things change very very quickly. So anyway, I think there's 651 00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:22,160 Speaker 4: lots of little things we can do. And and when 652 00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,680 Speaker 4: I started writing this book, I promised the publisher a 653 00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:28,719 Speaker 4: chapter on solutions. I don't have a chapter on solutions. 654 00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:31,799 Speaker 4: I have a chapter on you know, hopefully helpful. I 655 00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:36,280 Speaker 4: think there are solutions, but they are at the regulator level. 656 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 4: So all the all the media company can get together 657 00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,680 Speaker 4: and self regulate. The regulate can regulate them. But I 658 00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,439 Speaker 4: think there are lots of things that we could do. 659 00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,359 Speaker 4: We as the people need to decide we care enough 660 00:39:49,360 --> 00:39:53,239 Speaker 4: and it's important enough to act it. I don't think 661 00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:56,440 Speaker 4: I don't think it's impossible, but we need to suffer 662 00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,680 Speaker 4: enough from that to make it a priority, and I 663 00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:00,760 Speaker 4: think we getting there. 664 00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:03,200 Speaker 1: So I have a quick tangential question here, which is 665 00:40:03,640 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 1: sometimes on social media we see people who pedal conspiracy theories, 666 00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: and I don't know if they actually believe it. I 667 00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,760 Speaker 1: don't know if it's a misbelief or if it's something 668 00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:18,520 Speaker 1: that works for them. This is consistent with what you 669 00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:21,040 Speaker 1: said about the likes and the algorithms and so. 670 00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:22,719 Speaker 2: On, So how do you classify them. 671 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 1: They're not exactly misbelievers, they're just taking advantage of other people. 672 00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:31,920 Speaker 4: So there are lots of actors with bad intentions. So 673 00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:37,759 Speaker 4: there are states that are meddling in our life, and 674 00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:42,040 Speaker 4: there are bad actors that do things either financially or 675 00:40:42,120 --> 00:40:48,240 Speaker 4: for a social reason. Just for example, a real battle 676 00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:53,280 Speaker 4: happening in Wikipedia. People are trying to rewrite the world's history. 677 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:58,240 Speaker 4: I think what I read is that in twenty twenty four, 678 00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:01,880 Speaker 4: the item that was most edited and re edited on 679 00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:05,160 Speaker 4: Wikipedia as Hitler. It has been dead for a while. 680 00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,080 Speaker 4: The fact that the debates are still going on tells 681 00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:13,960 Speaker 4: you something about So there are groups that are fighting 682 00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:16,920 Speaker 4: about reframing the truth, and there are groups that are 683 00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,360 Speaker 4: trying to create havoc. And yes, there are lots of 684 00:41:19,400 --> 00:41:25,680 Speaker 4: bad actors. So I focused on the psychology of not 685 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:31,759 Speaker 4: people with bad intentions, but the people with good intentions 686 00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:34,680 Speaker 4: who get get dragged into it. But you're absolutely right 687 00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:39,160 Speaker 4: that there's lots of bad intentions. Like if you look 688 00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:43,920 Speaker 4: at COVID, there was one chiropractor in Florida that produced, 689 00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:46,440 Speaker 4: like I don't know exactly, but about ten percent of 690 00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:52,719 Speaker 4: the misinformation on COVID came, okay, came from him. At 691 00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,440 Speaker 4: some point it was ten percent. But there's lots of 692 00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:58,120 Speaker 4: very strange incentive in this in this world. 693 00:41:58,239 --> 00:41:58,560 Speaker 2: Okay. 694 00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:01,640 Speaker 1: So now you've said in your book that under the 695 00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:05,080 Speaker 1: right circumstances, anyone can become a misbeliever. 696 00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:07,160 Speaker 2: And presumably there are small. 697 00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:11,359 Speaker 1: Things that you and I have misbeliefs about. So what 698 00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,520 Speaker 1: do we do about that? How do we put checks 699 00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:14,680 Speaker 1: on ourselves? 700 00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:21,479 Speaker 4: I don't think we can fix wrong beliefs. That's really hard. 701 00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:27,920 Speaker 4: We need to trust lots of things. I ask my 702 00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,280 Speaker 4: friends usually, I said, what do you believe in global warming? 703 00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,360 Speaker 4: All of my friends I believe it's a real problem. 704 00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,200 Speaker 4: And then I said, what if you read and they 705 00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,600 Speaker 4: said the UN report? And they said, did you really 706 00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:43,680 Speaker 4: read the UN report? And they said the summary? And 707 00:42:44,239 --> 00:42:47,799 Speaker 4: there's a lot of our beliefs that are based on trusts, 708 00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,680 Speaker 4: are based on partial information and there's just too much 709 00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:52,360 Speaker 4: to know. There's too much. No, I don't think we 710 00:42:52,400 --> 00:42:56,920 Speaker 4: can fix that. I think the real key is intellectual humility. 711 00:42:57,600 --> 00:43:02,080 Speaker 4: I think the real key is to recognize that we 712 00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:05,880 Speaker 4: know something, we believe something, but to be open to 713 00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:08,879 Speaker 4: the fact that we're wrong. And I think that's what 714 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:13,200 Speaker 4: we try to do in scientific training for ourselves and 715 00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:18,319 Speaker 4: for students, is to embrace uncertainty. So if you ask 716 00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:20,960 Speaker 4: me what to do for ourselves and what I would do, 717 00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,840 Speaker 4: like if I could include a new course at the 718 00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:29,200 Speaker 4: University of high school, it wouldn't be media literacy because 719 00:43:29,200 --> 00:43:33,480 Speaker 4: that I think changes too quickly. It would be intellectual humility. 720 00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:36,759 Speaker 4: I think that's that's kind of a key. The key 721 00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,000 Speaker 4: for ourselves, and the other thing is is when we 722 00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:42,840 Speaker 4: talk to people, adopt the perspective of I'm trying to 723 00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:47,920 Speaker 4: learn here together. What's the point of fighting like it 724 00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:51,560 Speaker 4: doesn't work? Like it's an unbelievable thing. Right, people have 725 00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,640 Speaker 4: zero success Right, that's what you want to spend your 726 00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,399 Speaker 4: time on something you has zero success rate. 727 00:43:56,440 --> 00:43:57,319 Speaker 3: It's unbelievable. 728 00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:02,600 Speaker 4: So I think I think figuring out discussions of how 729 00:44:02,600 --> 00:44:06,080 Speaker 4: to get to a new shirt understanding and intellectual humility 730 00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:07,920 Speaker 4: are tightly linked, and that's what we need to do 731 00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:08,600 Speaker 4: for ourselves. 732 00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:16,600 Speaker 1: That was my interview with behavioral economists Dan Arili, and 733 00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,560 Speaker 1: to me, what surfaces is that misbelief is not just 734 00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,920 Speaker 1: something we can write off to a few misguided people, 735 00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,640 Speaker 1: but instead it's a feature of the human mind under 736 00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:30,959 Speaker 1: the right conditions. Our brains are prediction engines, and they're 737 00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:35,000 Speaker 1: constantly trying to weave data into a coherent picture of 738 00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,640 Speaker 1: the world, and they usually do a reasonable job, but 739 00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:43,400 Speaker 1: that same machinery can lead us astray when stress rises, 740 00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,840 Speaker 1: or when trust e roads, or when someone does something 741 00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:50,480 Speaker 1: mean to us, or when our social circles shift. In 742 00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:54,279 Speaker 1: these moments, the brain reaches for the explanations that are 743 00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:58,080 Speaker 1: comforting and coherent enough, and ones that feel like they 744 00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,799 Speaker 1: restore agency. It's of course tempting to imagine that we 745 00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 1: are immune. In other words, that misbelief is something that 746 00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:08,640 Speaker 1: happens to other people. But with enough pressure or uncertainty 747 00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:12,440 Speaker 1: or emotional vulnerability, presumably every one of us has the 748 00:45:12,520 --> 00:45:17,960 Speaker 1: cognitive ingredients to slide into narratives that distort reality. And 749 00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:22,239 Speaker 1: understanding how this all happens matters for our communities, for 750 00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:26,879 Speaker 1: our scientific institutions, for keeping a healthy democracy, because when 751 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,760 Speaker 1: misbelief takes root, it can reduce trust and create. 752 00:45:30,880 --> 00:45:33,600 Speaker 2: Entire parallel worlds of meaning. 753 00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:37,520 Speaker 1: So the challenge is not to correct bad facts, because 754 00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:39,960 Speaker 1: that's often a fool's errand what we should be doing 755 00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:45,080 Speaker 1: is always working to understand the emotional terrain beneath the stories. 756 00:45:45,440 --> 00:45:49,719 Speaker 1: If we approach misbelief with humility and understanding, we can 757 00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:53,040 Speaker 1: do better not only at helping others, but recognizing the 758 00:45:53,160 --> 00:45:58,480 Speaker 1: subtle ways that our own beliefs are shaped by our communities, 759 00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:07,480 Speaker 1: our identity, these and our emotions. Go to eagleman dot 760 00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,960 Speaker 1: com slash podcast for more information and to find further reading. 761 00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,440 Speaker 1: Join the weekly discussions on my substack, and check out 762 00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,239 Speaker 1: and subscribe to Inner Cosmos on YouTube for videos of 763 00:46:17,280 --> 00:46:20,560 Speaker 1: each episode and to leave comments until next time. I'm 764 00:46:20,600 --> 00:46:23,239 Speaker 1: David Eagleman and this is Inner Cosmos.