WEBVTT - What's Next for Iran? 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:05.560 Also media. 0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:09.640 Hi everyone, and welcome to the show. I'm joined today 0:00:09.680 --> 0:00:13.120 by Gordayen, who's a journalist from Kurdistan who's based in Germany, 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:17.320 and we're going to discuss the bombing of Iran. How 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:17.920 you got in. 0:00:18.680 --> 0:00:23.000 Hello, Thank you again for inviting me, and yeah, I'm 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:26.680 ready to talk about what's happening in Iran right now. 0:00:26.960 --> 0:00:31.560 Yeah, Yeah, it's a lot, a lot is happening. I 0:00:31.600 --> 0:00:33.960 mean we should begin, I suppose by if someone happens 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:38.120 to have been avoiding the news and has somehow managed 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.760 to avoid learning what is happening, can we give like 0:00:41.800 --> 0:00:45.880 a small summary of the events that have happened since 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:47.720 Friday night US time. 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:54.160 So yeah, it was early morning, around eight nine in 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:58.920 the morning in Iran time, that the Israeli army attacked 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:04.319 the center of Tehran where Alikamani's house, which is known 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:09.679 as Beraberti, the Leader's house, was located and apparently the 0:01:09.720 --> 0:01:15.560 Iranian officials were having a very important meeting there. And 0:01:16.120 --> 0:01:19.640 following that there were more attacks across Tehran and other cities. 0:01:19.920 --> 0:01:23.800 And by night as the attacks were going on. As 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:26.759 the strikes were going on, Benna Montanio came on TV 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:30.319 and he said that I have some news, I have 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:35.800 some information that confirms that Alikamani is dead, which caused 0:01:35.840 --> 0:01:41.280 a lot of panic and excitement among the people, and 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:45.520 everybody was really excited and they were waiting for this 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:49.800 to be confirmed. And then some people came out and said, no, 0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:54.840 it's not true. But after some hours the Iranian state media, 0:01:55.440 --> 0:01:59.880 the TV channels all started confirming that. So following that 0:02:00.360 --> 0:02:02.920 the attacks did not stop. They were still going on, 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:07.920 and then the American Army also joined. This is a 0:02:08.000 --> 0:02:14.240 completely coordinated cooperation between US and Israel. So as they 0:02:14.240 --> 0:02:19.440 were attacking different IIERGC bases and the facilities belonging to 0:02:19.440 --> 0:02:23.880 the government, the Iranian government started attacking the neighboring countries. 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:28.120 They attacked UAE, they attacked Katar, they attacked Bahrain, they 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:32.320 attacked Iraq, and they attacked also Iraqi Curtistan region. And 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:37.680 they were just mainly targeting the US basis or facilities 0:02:37.680 --> 0:02:41.000 belonging to the US, but soon after they started attacking 0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:47.840 civilian buildings like hotels, like just randomly attacking different directions. 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:51.440 And at the same time they also started sending missiles 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:56.519 and drones towards Israel, which majority of them were intercepted. 0:02:56.560 --> 0:03:02.560 So they've been attacking these neighboring countries since the beginning 0:03:02.760 --> 0:03:08.079 of this war, and they have been specifically targeting Iraqi 0:03:08.160 --> 0:03:12.200 Curtistan because first, the US has a lot of big 0:03:12.240 --> 0:03:15.560 military bases there in Iraq and Iraqi Kuddistan region. And 0:03:15.600 --> 0:03:18.799 at the same time they are the Kurdish parties from 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:22.040 Iran who are based there and the regime has been 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:26.160 seeing them as one of the major threats since decades. 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:29.560 So since the beginning of this whole war, they have 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:34.079 been targeting these Kurdish parties a lot, and they also 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:37.520 attacked there is a refugee base that the families of 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:40.680 the Kurdish forces basically lived there. They also attacked there, 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:45.080 but luckily nobody was killed or injured, but some buildings 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.840 were damaged, and they attacked erville with drones and missiles 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:52.920 several times, which were all mainly intercepted by the US 0:03:52.960 --> 0:03:57.320 air defense systems because of the remainings of the missiles 0:03:57.320 --> 0:03:59.440 and the drones that were falling down from the scuise. 0:03:59.520 --> 0:04:03.320 Some people were lightly injured or some buildings were damaged, 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:07.080 but yeah, still it's a crazy thing to see because 0:04:07.400 --> 0:04:11.920 previously in the past years, Iran had attacked or built 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:15.800 several times and also other regions, but the US or 0:04:15.840 --> 0:04:19.560 the other countries that were there, they didn't really intercept 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:23.960 the drones or the missiles. There's also something new that 0:04:24.000 --> 0:04:27.720 we're seeing. It's also important to know that Iran has 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:32.760 also attacked Cypress, like British military bases were targeted there, 0:04:33.200 --> 0:04:36.240 but the drones or the missiles were sent from Lebanon. 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:39.760 What's going on right now is the full scare war, 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.919 and I think when you look at it, it's nothing 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.400 like what we've seen before. If you want to compare 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.880 it to what happened in Iraq the US invasion, this 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:52.279 is completely different. I think it's even larger than that 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:56.280 because Iran is a very big country and there are 0:04:57.000 --> 0:05:00.640 hundreds or maybe thousands of points across the country that 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:05.600 have been targeted with heavy bombings inside Tehran, around Tehran. 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:09.720 It's also really incredible to know because the amount of 0:05:09.839 --> 0:05:13.280 intel that you need for this is also really a lot. 0:05:13.960 --> 0:05:17.840 I've seen videos, I've seen footage, I've seen reports that 0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:24.000 some random checkpoints on some remote places, especially in Curtison, 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:28.359 we're targeted. So this is also something that shows that 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:33.280 how really coordinated and well planned this attack and this 0:05:33.720 --> 0:05:36.480 war is I want to jump into something because a 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:40.360 lot of people are really focused on these major attacks, 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:45.240 major developments like yeah, they're attacking Dubai, they're attacking Doha. 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:48.280 These are all happening, and of course the civilians they're 0:05:48.320 --> 0:05:51.000 also in danger. I think somebody in Doha was killed 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:53.359 in the first day. It was just a civilian that 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:56.320 was killed by the remainings of a massoul or a drone. 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:59.560 And this has made things really hard for the people 0:05:59.640 --> 0:06:03.240 on the round. Many people are trapped in the airports 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:05.960 on the borders, so this is this is something that's 0:06:06.000 --> 0:06:08.679 happening to the people outside of a round, but inside 0:06:08.680 --> 0:06:14.960 Iran there is massive bombings everywhere wherever the IERGYC or 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:19.320 the intelligence service has a facility. And at the same time, 0:06:19.360 --> 0:06:22.080 the regime has cut off the internet, even though the 0:06:22.120 --> 0:06:25.640 normal phone lines barely work, and it's just so hard 0:06:25.680 --> 0:06:31.160 and almost impossible to get really precise information about what's 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:33.960 happening in the cities in the and the towns around, 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.280 just like what happened in the in the early January, 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:40.440 like during the process. Only a few people have access 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:42.880 to the internet and it's very limited. Yeah, they share 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:47.240 some videos with channels and like with news agencies, but 0:06:47.560 --> 0:06:50.880 it's very limited. For example, in my hometown today, some 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:56.840 of the major iergycy bases and intelligence facilities that were 0:06:57.160 --> 0:07:00.360 some of the most important ones in western side of Iran, 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:03.160 or as we call it, Iranian Critisonal or Rochalot, they 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:06.760 were all bombed and I've been trying to contact people 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:10.440 to see what happened exactly. I'm sure that there are 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:14.400 civilians killed because the regime also has put all these 0:07:14.440 --> 0:07:19.000 bases inside the cities, near parks, near hospitals, near schools, 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:22.840 near just random houses in the city, So a lot 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:26.520 of people are possibly killed, but we don't know how 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:29.360 many who are they. So this is this is also 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:31.400 like not just in my city, in other cities to 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:35.280 it's it's the same. This is also something that a 0:07:35.280 --> 0:07:38.920 lot of people are not talking about. But again, this 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:42.760 is war, and the bombings are so heavy, and they're 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:47.120 all being carried out with really advanced weapons, and it's 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:49.640 just so hard. And when I talk to the people 0:07:49.840 --> 0:07:52.560 outside of Iran, the people in Europe, like some of 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:57.360 my friends relatives, everybody's worried that what if one of 0:07:57.400 --> 0:07:59.440 my relatives, what if one of my one of my 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:03.720 friends get get killed randomly on the street. But because 0:08:03.720 --> 0:08:07.160 of this that people are seeing this also on the news. 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:09.800 At least I know this from my family because I 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:13.120 was able to talk to them two nights ago. Everybody's 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:17.000 staying home, they have enough food for a few weeks, 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:20.840 and they're just watching the news. They don't go out. Yeah, 0:08:21.120 --> 0:08:24.160 they're just trying to stay safe. But at the same time, 0:08:24.400 --> 0:08:28.280 in major cities like for me, for example, the people 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:31.600 who have a house outside of the city or in 0:08:31.640 --> 0:08:35.079 a village, or if they have relatives outside of the city, 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:39.800 they have moved out because it's generally safer. There are 0:08:40.160 --> 0:08:44.000 not many IRGC bases or like government government buildings or 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:47.720 whatever in the villages and smaller towns, so this is 0:08:47.760 --> 0:08:51.880 also happening, and people are trying to stay safe as 0:08:51.960 --> 0:08:56.600 much as possible. And yeah, this is something that's going on. 0:08:56.640 --> 0:08:59.480 And at the same time, when I talk to the people, 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.000 I mean I haven't been able to properly talk to 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:04.720 anyone because the internet is really bad. But like I 0:09:05.120 --> 0:09:07.800 talked to my family and they told me that the 0:09:08.120 --> 0:09:11.679 food prices are really, really, really high, and it's really 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:15.880 hard to buy food now because everybody's panicking and there 0:09:15.880 --> 0:09:19.000 are shortages, like there's some items cannot be found, some 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:22.240 like essential items like I don't know, oil, meat and 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:25.240 rice and things like that. It's it's too hard to 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:28.000 find in the market. And a lot of people are 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:31.120 going to the to the gas stations to get some 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:36.120 gas and to be prepared if something happens. But yeah, 0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:39.080 so this is also something that's going on, and people 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:42.000 are worried about that what if it's it's going to 0:09:42.080 --> 0:09:44.600 get bigger, if it's going to scale it, so, like 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:48.800 how are they going to deal with all these shortages. 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:52.560 There is one more topic that I want to talk about. 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:55.839 I also wrote about it a little bit earlier. I 0:09:56.320 --> 0:10:01.040 published some text. It's the topic of or soldiers. 0:10:01.280 --> 0:10:03.080 Yeah, explain that to people. 0:10:03.160 --> 0:10:07.640 The civilians who are forced into the military service. This 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:11.960 is also like a very sensitive topic because there are 0:10:12.000 --> 0:10:16.680 probably thousands or maybe hundreds of thousands of young men 0:10:17.040 --> 0:10:20.000 who are about eighteen years old that are forced into 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:23.400 the military service because it's mandatory in Iran, and they 0:10:23.440 --> 0:10:26.760 are forced into the service. And there are also in 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:30.600 these military bases, and the military bases are being targeted 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:34.040 non stop, and there is a possibility, I mean not 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:38.360 the possibility of course, it's surreal today. One person, a 0:10:38.679 --> 0:10:41.680 young man from Curtison, was confirmed that he was killed, 0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:44.400 but I'm sure that there are more because we don't 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.880 have a proper internet connection so we cannot like get 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:52.319 all the information. But these military bases are being also targeted, 0:10:52.360 --> 0:10:55.280 and of course I think a lot of them might 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:58.960 get killed or injured. And just from my own family, 0:10:59.000 --> 0:11:01.840 one of my cousins who is twenty four, he was 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:05.720 also forced into this because he wanted to open a business. 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:07.680 And like in Iran, a lot of people also maybe 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.000 I should give a little bit of context, like in Iran, 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:11.880 if you want to open a business, if you want 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:15.480 to have a passport or things like that, you have 0:11:15.559 --> 0:11:17.960 to serve in the army and we'll give you that. 0:11:18.120 --> 0:11:22.040 So yeah, he just he was listed, like I don't know, 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.480 about five months ago or so, and then he wasn't 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.640 in a military base between Tabriz and Urmia, and their 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:35.440 base was targeted. Luckily, the slipping quarters were not targeted. 0:11:35.480 --> 0:11:39.680 It was just where the commanders were I think staying. 0:11:39.920 --> 0:11:42.200 And yeah, I mean I couldn't talk to him, but 0:11:42.320 --> 0:11:46.440 he told my cousin who I called like two days ago, 0:11:46.760 --> 0:11:49.320 he said that the moment they was bombed, everybody just 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:52.080 ran out, and then everybody went back in and they 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:55.120 took all their belongings and backpacks and they just left 0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:58.199 the military base and they went home without telling the 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.839 wiser or something, and they were not they're they're not 0:12:01.880 --> 0:12:04.880 going to go back there anyways. So this is also 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.720 something that I am personally worried about. All those young 0:12:08.880 --> 0:12:12.679 men who are forced to be in the military basis, 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:16.200 and they are absolutely not a part of the regime. 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:19.920 There are just civilians who are forced into this, So 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:22.960 that that's also something that I think it's it's not 0:12:23.200 --> 0:12:26.560 really discussed because the whole focus right now is just 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.480 on the major attacks. Which place was targeted or like 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:33.800 which I don't know commander was killed or things like that. 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:37.880 Yeah, let's take a little break for advertisements and we'll 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:39.760 come back, because I'd like to discuss more of that, 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:43.000 like the structure of the Iranian state and who is 0:12:43.000 --> 0:12:57.720 and it's not like part of it. Okay, we are back, 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:00.200 So I think that will be a really good place 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.679 for us to do some deep dives. Would be people 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:06.679 understand this part of the world through the lens of states, 0:13:06.760 --> 0:13:09.440 because they understand the world through the lens of states 0:13:09.440 --> 0:13:12.240 because they have been raised in a state system. But 0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:14.560 I don't think that that it's a particularly it's not 0:13:14.720 --> 0:13:17.000 useful to see everybody who lives in the Iranian state 0:13:17.000 --> 0:13:19.040 as part of the Iranian state. It doesn't actually give 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:22.959 us a good grasp on reality. So perhaps you could explain, 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.480 first of all, perhaps explaining the structures of the Iranian 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:31.160 state when it comes to like, there are pro regime 0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:35.800 militias right there are the ILGC, and then we have 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:40.160 like the leadership, many of whom are now dead, some 0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:42.400 of whom we know, some of whom we think are dead. 0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:45.000 But then we also have and I know you and 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.800 I have spoken about this before, but it's worth explaining again, right, 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.760 Like Iran is the ethnically diverse country, so we have 0:13:52.320 --> 0:13:56.200 people who are ethnically excluded from power. We also have 0:13:56.280 --> 0:13:59.680 people within the majority ethnicity Persian, people who are not 0:14:00.080 --> 0:14:03.959 pro ratime. So could you perhaps explain like those structures 0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:06.800 that exist. And then you and I spoke about this 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:09.720 a little bit before we were recording, But many of 0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:14.600 the facilities of the regimes, armed forces and repressive forces 0:14:15.200 --> 0:14:17.400 are right in the middle of town, right right next 0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:21.360 to civilian building. So perhaps we could explain the consequences 0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:24.080 of that for civilians as bombs of falling on these facilities. 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:30.160 Yeah, so if I want to explain how the Iranian 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.960 state system is, I would simply compare it to a 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:39.000 full monarchy, but with a different label. Yeah, there's kink 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.760 who owns all of the power, and there are the 0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:46.600 people who are around him m hm that also share 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:49.440 some bits of power with him. And there is the 0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:53.320 army that is a full amount of the leader or 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.240 the people around him. So this is simply something like 0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.600 that if I want to make it very very simple. 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:07.000 But the Iranian state structure is actually quite complicated. You know. 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:13.040 They follow some sort of religious hierarchy that the Supreme 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:17.680 Leader is the representative of God on earth and he 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:23.720 is leading the Muslim nation until the Ima Mahti, the 0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:26.640 savior of the world, comes from the skies and saves 0:15:26.640 --> 0:15:29.240 the world and brings peace. So this is what they 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:33.800 actually believe. So the Supreme Leader is actually the person 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:36.880 who approves everything. Yeah, there is normal parliament with the 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:40.000 representative of the people, but at the same time there 0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:46.520 is another type of religious parliament that decides on the 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:51.880 interests of the regime, which consists of some high level 0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:57.360 clerics or the molas, who are on a higher social level. 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:01.040 And at the same time, there is also a council 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:05.720 of twelve people, six of them are molas, six of 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:10.400 them are like lawyers and jurists that they are monitoring 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:15.200 the let's say, the whole political process in the government. 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:19.440 But whatever happens when you see that, Yeah, this is 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.640 on paper and theory, this is a system that could 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.720 possibly work. But all of these organizations or these parts 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:29.200 of the regions or layers of the regime that I mentioned, 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:33.400 all of them they follow the supreme leader and whatever 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.600 they do has to be approved by him. Yeah. I mean, 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:39.080 I'm not talking about like I don't know, the things 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:42.760 that are decided in a city council or like very lolol. 0:16:42.800 --> 0:16:46.680 I'm talking about the national interests or things like that, 0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:49.840 or who's going to be the next president for example. 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:55.160 But basically that parliamentary system or those counselings are basically 0:16:55.360 --> 0:16:58.800 non functional. They're just there for a show. And at 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:03.400 the same time, especially in the past decades, the iergy 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:07.040 see it's not only a military force that it's not 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:11.560 a militia that follows the leader. It's a whole organized 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:18.199 and complicated structure that owns the economy, owns all the 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:23.359 institutions in Iran and controls all of them. We're talking 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:27.359 about the oil sector, we're talking about industry, we're talking 0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:33.040 about agriculture. I mean, almost everything is owned by them. 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:38.400 And I ergy is a network of countless high level 0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:43.840 commanders or even let's say non military person that are 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.679 that are all working together and they are running the 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:51.000 country somehow, and of course even if the leader is dead, 0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:55.960 they still have some structures to continue to carry carry on. 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.600 And this is how how the structure is in Iran. 0:17:59.640 --> 0:18:02.000 And I think I think this is what makes Iran 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:05.800 very very different from other states and in the Middle East. 0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:08.280 And it's something that makes run also very different from 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:10.119 what for example, if you want to compare it to 0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:13.720 Sudamhossein system or in in Libya or in Syria, it's 0:18:13.960 --> 0:18:19.400 it's very different because the IRGC has put its hands 0:18:19.440 --> 0:18:24.480 and roots everywhere in every institution. We're talking about schools, 0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:27.880 we're talking about universities, we're talking about hospitals, we're talking 0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:31.000 about anything that you can imagine even in a post 0:18:31.080 --> 0:18:35.360 office like we were talking about this earlier, So that 0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:40.320 there is like in every governmental institution, from universities to 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:45.240 schools and hospitals. Ii ERGC always has a specific office 0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:51.480 in every facility. It's supposed to recruit people to join 0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:57.080 the resistance, but in fact it's just a it's just 0:18:57.160 --> 0:19:00.679 an office to observe the people who are there or 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:04.960 the people who are going there for their daily matters. 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:10.040 So they have control over everything, and that's what makes 0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:14.600 this regime very very structured and very hard to just 0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:18.600 topple in two nights. So that's why they are still resisting. 0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.560 There are still fighting back. There are still even though 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:26.400 Israel and America have destroyed majority of their military basis 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:29.199 and facilities, but they are still fighting back. This is 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:32.200 also important to understand, I think, yeah. 0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:36.280 Yeah, And like with it being a little bit unclearly, 0:19:36.400 --> 0:19:40.120 like who is still alive, especially in that top end 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.520 of the pyramid, right, Like we know hamah and I 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.960 is dead, or we know we're pretty sure he's dead. 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:49.560 Ran has announced he's dead. We know that other people 0:19:49.640 --> 0:19:53.400 within that religious leadership and political leadership structure are dead. 0:19:53.920 --> 0:19:57.680 We know that they struck the Assembly of Expert today, 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:00.679 which could have removed a good number but more of 0:20:00.760 --> 0:20:04.000 those religious leaders. Like what they did in Venezuela was 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:06.679 that they found somebody who was no less repressive, but 0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:11.480 was amenable to doing what they wanted right specifically with resources, 0:20:11.520 --> 0:20:14.000 specifically with oil. You know, we run the risk of 0:20:14.040 --> 0:20:17.080 a similar thing happening in it Ran, right of like 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:20.439 someone within the IRGC being like, we will do what 0:20:20.520 --> 0:20:22.320 you need us to do with oil as long as 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:25.159 you allow us to continue murdering the Iranian people as 0:20:25.560 --> 0:20:29.479 much as we wish. Like, that's a real worry. They 0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:31.479 will find someone who they think they can do business 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:35.280 with that that's what they wanted in Venezuela, right, Ran 0:20:35.320 --> 0:20:39.320 in Venezuela are different. They are both allied, but they're 0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:43.199 the very different countries. Yeah, but that's a real worry 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:44.080 for people. 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:48.919 Yeah, I think it's also like with Venezuela, it's completely 0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:54.399 different right now because with Venezuela, America had like a 0:20:54.440 --> 0:20:57.679 clear person as you said that, yeah, he or she 0:20:57.760 --> 0:21:01.960 is going to be the next leader or whatever, yeah, WROTEZ. 0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:06.359 But with it Ron it's not really clear yet. You know, 0:21:07.920 --> 0:21:12.240 the so called Prince Pahlavi, he is he is always 0:21:12.280 --> 0:21:15.960 on TV, always on on his social media saying that 0:21:16.080 --> 0:21:18.000 I'm gonna come back. I'm going to do this and that. 0:21:18.119 --> 0:21:21.760 But it's not really clear if USA and America have 0:21:21.920 --> 0:21:24.640 made a deal with him, because he doesn't really have 0:21:24.720 --> 0:21:28.919 that social base that he claims to have. And on 0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:32.919 the other side, there are the ethnic groups, especially Kurts, 0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:37.919 Balucci's and Aquasi Arabs. They're they're like better organized compared 0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:41.480 to other ethnic groups. And then today we just saw 0:21:41.640 --> 0:21:45.400 that Trump has made phone calls with the Kurdish leaders 0:21:45.440 --> 0:21:49.600 of these parties and the other parties in Iraqi curtism, 0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:54.160 this means something, and so yeah, it's it's not really 0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:56.800 clear that they're going to have a similar plan like 0:21:56.920 --> 0:22:00.800 Venezuela or they're gonna have something completely different for Iran. 0:22:01.080 --> 0:22:04.040 We're just waiting to see what's going to happen in 0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:06.360 the in the upcoming weeks, because it's just a few 0:22:06.440 --> 0:22:10.600 days that the war is going on. The entire region 0:22:10.840 --> 0:22:14.040 is in a shock. It's it's it's still not clear 0:22:14.119 --> 0:22:17.320 that how people are going to decide on their future 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:19.960 now because the war is still going on and it's 0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:23.840 a very very high level. So of course it's it's 0:22:23.880 --> 0:22:26.919 also like even when I when I was talking to 0:22:27.000 --> 0:22:30.520 my family the other day, they were telling me, I 0:22:30.520 --> 0:22:33.560 mean most people in Kurdistan. I would say, majority of 0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:36.880 the people in in Kurdistan, they don't want monarchy back 0:22:36.960 --> 0:22:39.879 of course, they don't want another form of dictatorship. And 0:22:40.240 --> 0:22:43.159 they would say, yeah, we want anyone to be installed, 0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:46.400 but not this Sky, not not this Razapala. We don't 0:22:46.440 --> 0:22:50.480 want him. Anyone is better than him. So this is 0:22:50.520 --> 0:22:55.560 also something and I think probably if they want to 0:22:55.760 --> 0:22:59.000 install Raza Palavi, the ethnic groups will not accept it 0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:02.800 and there's going to be more resistance and therefore more wars. 0:23:03.680 --> 0:23:06.040 Yeah, let's take another break and we'll talk a little 0:23:06.080 --> 0:23:09.000 bit about that, maybe specifically the Curdis situation, as I 0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:10.720 know of interest in both of us. 0:23:21.760 --> 0:23:23.000 All right, we're back. 0:23:23.640 --> 0:23:26.920 So, yeah, you mentioned this piece, right, There was an article. 0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:30.280 It was a very poorly written article. I will say, 0:23:30.440 --> 0:23:33.680 for instance, it seemed to think that Talabani and Barzani 0:23:33.760 --> 0:23:36.879 were Iranian. But nonetheless the central thrust of it was 0:23:36.920 --> 0:23:42.280 correct that Trump has communicated with the KDP and the 0:23:42.320 --> 0:23:44.280 p UK. I understand this is like a lot of 0:23:44.320 --> 0:23:47.520 acronyms coming at people, and so maybe we can just say, 0:23:47.560 --> 0:23:52.320 like political parties in Iraqi, Kurdistan, Southern Kurdistan, but that 0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:57.800 doesn't necessarily tell us anything. I think it's very easy. Again, 0:23:57.880 --> 0:24:01.840 like there's this American media frame of analysis which sees 0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:05.360 groups in the Middle East as monolithic, right, the Kurds, 0:24:05.720 --> 0:24:08.399 as if they're like an entirely homogeneous entity with one 0:24:08.400 --> 0:24:11.760 political interest, which is not the case. But like, for 0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:15.720 America to fully remove this regime and Israel, it needs 0:24:15.760 --> 0:24:18.240 either a partner force or to be willing to commit 0:24:19.080 --> 0:24:22.760 thousands of its own soldiers to fight and know that 0:24:23.440 --> 0:24:26.720 hundreds of them will die, right, like like they'd in 0:24:26.800 --> 0:24:30.800 a ruck, I guess, like knowing what we know and 0:24:30.880 --> 0:24:33.600 knowing that there are these groups, right, and maybe it 0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:35.320 would be good to give people a primer on the 0:24:36.359 --> 0:24:41.280 Eastern Kurdistan resistance groups and the alliance that they've recently formed, 0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:44.960 Like where are they standing right now? And know they 0:24:45.040 --> 0:24:47.240 released a statement yesterday, but can you explain that to 0:24:47.240 --> 0:24:48.080 a little bit to people. 0:24:48.720 --> 0:24:53.080 There are several parties across Eastern Kurdistan or as they say, 0:24:53.200 --> 0:24:56.119 Irenian Kurdistan, and of course they were very diverse and 0:24:56.320 --> 0:25:01.639 each of them have a different ideology. That's that's very normal. Yes, 0:25:01.960 --> 0:25:05.120 what happened in the past few months was that it's 0:25:05.160 --> 0:25:08.760 also a very great development for our people at least 0:25:09.600 --> 0:25:12.439 because they have been also calling for a form of 0:25:13.280 --> 0:25:17.040 cooperation between these parties, and they finally announced that. Of course, 0:25:17.280 --> 0:25:21.000 two parties like the Komala and another branch, they did 0:25:21.040 --> 0:25:25.000 not join it because they had some disagreements, but that 0:25:25.119 --> 0:25:29.720 is also normal. So the thing is that these parties 0:25:30.320 --> 0:25:34.040 would definitely work together if the things are going to 0:25:34.119 --> 0:25:37.400 escalate more. For example, if I want to say about 0:25:37.440 --> 0:25:40.840