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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast about that action.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing out spec We're sitting up a cash toto. That's

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Speaker 3: all we see.

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Speaker 2: Most gamble is ships. When they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to swin.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabine you want to.

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Speaker 3: And we are under way.

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Speaker 2: What is up?

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Speaker 3: Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I

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Speaker 2: am your host, Chris Raybaon. This is our Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: sixty betting preview Seahawks Patriots joining me as always the

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister of the generate nation. Stucky stuck last part

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Speaker 2: of the year. How you feeling.

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Speaker 3: Amazing? Uh? Yeah, it's almost time to flip to full

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Speaker 3: college basketball. But one more game should be exciting. Of

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Speaker 3: a bunch of props. You guys have been doing prop shows.

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Speaker 3: I've been following along with some of those quick plug

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Speaker 3: on Friday afternoon, you'll be on the show. I came

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Speaker 3: up with the show idea that I'm going to host.

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Speaker 3: I think we're shooting around for three Eastern, but I'll

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Speaker 3: have I don't know, eight to ten to twelve people on.

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Speaker 3: You get a hypothetical thousand dollars one to five bets

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Speaker 3: and you can spend it however you want. You know,

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Speaker 3: you can put it all on in one bet, split

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Speaker 3: it up. There's a lot of game theory and it'll

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Speaker 3: be interesting. I think it'll be fun. Winner gets some

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Speaker 3: of my money, whoever ends up with the most at

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Speaker 3: the end, and I think it's a it'll be a

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Speaker 3: fun way for anyone looking for you know, last you know,

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Speaker 3: a few days before where the prop markets still are

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Speaker 3: what people that are really into it are liking, So

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Speaker 3: make sure you tune into that. But I'm excited to

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Speaker 3: ramble about this game, which has I think a lot

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Speaker 3: of fascinating angles on both sides of the ball.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, we'll touch on all of the I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think there's a ton of question marks and this one,

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Speaker 2: and I think it's because we have two defensive minded

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Speaker 2: head coaches, which is not the necessarily the norm for

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Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. Of course, McDonald if he if the Seahawks,

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Speaker 2: will he be the first defensive coach that actually calls

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Speaker 2: the defensive plays. So we'll get into our six pack

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Speaker 2: and that's gonna be open to just all bets, you know, props,

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Speaker 2: team totals, sides. Whatever we'll talk about you know how

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Speaker 2: we think the spreads the total is gonna kind of

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Speaker 2: shake out and get into just our thoughts on the

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Speaker 2: game and of course our props. So if you want

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Speaker 2: to tell the bets we're about to discuss, just look

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Speaker 2: for the quick slip links in the podcast of video

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Speaker 2: descriptions or it is at Action network dot com slash

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Speaker 2: bet now stuck. You've been killing it all year. You're

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Speaker 2: up sixty four fifty four. You so graciously, we wanted

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Speaker 2: to make it fun last last game, so we're gonna

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Speaker 2: make all the six pack, all three six pack bets

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Speaker 2: worth four. So I guess if you go zero and

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Speaker 2: three and I go three and oh, I would technically

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Speaker 2: come back. So appreciate you. But a great year and

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Speaker 2: great moneyline dogs. Didn't forget that. I think, where'd you

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Speaker 2: go seventeen and two on moneyline dogs this year or

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Speaker 2: something like that, seventeen and three some good stuff there.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, you're up for Super Bowl sixty where we.

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Speaker 1: Go Thursday for Action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: For my first pick of Super Bowl Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 3: I'm going with the Seattle Seahawks. Team total under twenty

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Speaker 3: five and a half points widely available there. I so

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Speaker 3: when just we're gonna break down every angle of this game,

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Speaker 3: we'll ramble about this game now, and then we'll into

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Speaker 3: some props, which will be the rest of our picks.

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Speaker 3: I make this three seven around forty three and a half.

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Speaker 3: So I'm I think this will close forty five or

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Speaker 3: lower everywhere the total. So I lean under, I lean Patriots.

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Speaker 3: Let's combine the two and go with Seattle's team total

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Speaker 3: under twenty five and a half points. I thought that,

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Speaker 3: by the way, like I thought that this this spread

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Speaker 3: should be like three and a half. Forty four and

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Speaker 3: a half is what forward. Three and a half forty

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Speaker 3: four is maybe what I would have made it. I mean,

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Speaker 3: last week the Patriots they had an eighty percent more

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Speaker 3: I should say two weeks ago they had eighty percent

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Speaker 3: postgame win expectancy. There was whether they kind of just

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Speaker 3: did what they had to do to win and they

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Speaker 3: just protected May. They were playing Stidham, the Seahawks, they

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Speaker 3: get you know, the look at line is three and

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Speaker 3: a half. Now it's been bet up since. I mean,

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Speaker 3: the Rams had a sixty seventy postgame win expectancy they outgained.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think they were the better team. They

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Speaker 3: came up short on fourth down. They shredded that defense.

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Speaker 3: It's not like Seattle dominated. Sam Donald was really good

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Speaker 3: with their defense got shredded. So I don't necessarily agree

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Speaker 3: that this line should be above four. So I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: go with Seattle team total unders. So let's start on

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks side of the ball. We know that they

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Speaker 3: are a run first offense set up the play action.

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Speaker 3: But the Patriots defense, when healthy this year, with a

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Speaker 3: healthy Milton Williams, with a healthy Robert Splane right, they

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Speaker 3: had some injuries down the stretch. You cannot run on

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Speaker 3: them whatsoever. And when the Seahawks have gone up against

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Speaker 3: top tier run defenses this year, their offense has not

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Speaker 3: looked pretty. I mean, you look at the numbers with

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Speaker 3: Milton Williams, just to add some contacts. The six games

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Speaker 3: without them, they gave up five yards per carry, worse

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Speaker 3: in the NFL. Their stuff fre eight was thirty two percent.

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Speaker 3: That's worse than the league by ten percent. Fourteen games

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Speaker 3: with them three yards per carry three that is the

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Speaker 3: best of the past five years, close to a fifty

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Speaker 3: percent stuff right top three in the NFL, so there's

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Speaker 3: some They're healthy now on the defensive side of the ball,

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Speaker 3: you can't really run on them. The Patriots defense, they

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Speaker 3: do a tremendous job of disguising coverages on the back end.

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Speaker 3: They use stunts very effectively. They've also upped their blitz rate.

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Speaker 3: They've gone from twenty nine to thirty percent through the

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Speaker 3: first thirteen weeks to about forty percent north since Week fourteen. Overall,

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Speaker 3: and especially over the last five to six games, they've

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Speaker 3: just really upped that blitz rate. And I think that

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Speaker 3: the interior pressure specifically is going to give I mean, Bradford, lookout,

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Speaker 3: he might have a room.

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Speaker 2: Bradford Sam Freudian slip for uh freaking anyone who have

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Speaker 2: the over like under five minutes in Sam Donald?

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Speaker 3: No, No, I'm saying their guard Anthony Brown.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, yeah, yeah, he's terrible.

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Speaker 3: And how do how do you get to Donald? It's

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Speaker 3: in tier pressure, which the Patriots can generate. They have

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Speaker 3: two of the best in the interier. They also can

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Speaker 3: do it with stunts. They also can do it with

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Speaker 3: this new focus on the blitz.

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Speaker 2: So I think, so would you before you go on,

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Speaker 2: would you rather the Patriots because I think there's two

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Speaker 2: game plans. They could either go kind of sit back play,

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Speaker 2: maybe place a man but kind of what mat forced

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Speaker 2: them to kind of work you on the field, or

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Speaker 2: they could go super blitzev You would prefer them to

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Speaker 2: go blitzevy against Donald.

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Speaker 3: Uh No, not blitz heavy, but pick and choose your spots.

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Speaker 1: I what.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that they should go forty here. I

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Speaker 3: think it should be like like thirty thirty three percent.

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Speaker 3: But I like that they've developed some of the blitzes

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Speaker 3: and a higher blitz right over the past weeks. They

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Speaker 3: have that tool now in their bag to something the

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Speaker 3: Seahawks have to game plan for as well. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that they should be that aggressive against Darnold, but

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Speaker 3: they're definitely going to use the blitz here and there

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Speaker 3: on third downs, and I think that So the bottom

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Speaker 3: line is and then the Patriots have an excellent corner group.

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Speaker 3: One of the things that I'm very very interested in

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Speaker 3: is how do the Patriots decide to defend JSN. So

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Speaker 3: there are two schools of thoughts here. Two schools of thought.

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Speaker 3: You either man up Christian Gonzalez on JSN and have

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Speaker 3: him follow him around. Now, you can't fall him around

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Speaker 3: every snap. You could have him in motion. They can

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Speaker 3: put him in the slot, which he's done this year

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Speaker 3: less than last year, but I don't know around twenty

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Speaker 3: percent of the time, you could have him coming out

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Speaker 3: of I'm sure they're going to try to do creative

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Speaker 3: ways to get JS and the ball, but he's obviously

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Speaker 3: going to be on the outside a lot. Do you

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Speaker 3: have Christian Gonzalez, who doesn't usually follow, but he has

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Speaker 3: in certain games this year, or do you take the

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Speaker 3: Belichick approach And this is a Patriot's staff obviously that

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Speaker 3: has lots of ties to Belichick. Belichick would take away

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Speaker 3: your biggest strength. He takes away your right arm, says,

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Speaker 3: beat me with your left. So do they what he

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Speaker 3: would do like and he would do this against like

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Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill. He would take Gonzales and have Gonzalez go

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Speaker 3: in Shaheed. And Gonzalez has the speed to Matt Shaheed

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Speaker 3: if on those deep routes some corners, you know you

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Speaker 3: worry about that, but not with Gonzales. And then do

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Speaker 3: you take Carlton Davis and put him on JS and

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Speaker 3: have him press with his physicality, but you always have

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Speaker 3: a safety over top. Interestingly enough, it's in twenty nineteen

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Speaker 3: that Super Bowl Matt Patricia provided the blueprint to Brian

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Speaker 3: Flores who shut down the Rams with that with their

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Speaker 3: front and that they had no idea what was coming.

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Speaker 3: Maybe it's Brian fl su pervided a bit of a

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Speaker 3: blueprint that the Patriots can draw from from the Vikings

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Speaker 3: when they played the Seahawks and the ways that they

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Speaker 3: bracketed Jessn, the ways that they use zone when he

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Speaker 3: was in the slot to take away those quick throws.

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Speaker 3: So maybe they pull from there because they really just said, Jessn,

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Speaker 3: you're not beating me. So I don't know how they're

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Speaker 3: going to approach it. Maybe it's probably a mixed bag

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Speaker 3: of boat. But that's super interesting to me. I would

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Speaker 3: take away Jessn at all costs, and I would put

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Speaker 3: Davis on him press have a safety bracket them say, look,

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Speaker 3: if you want to throw the Shaheed and cup and

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Speaker 3: the tight ends all day, go for it, because we

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Speaker 3: do have two other good corners. And I do think

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Speaker 3: the run defense can hold up. So I think the Patriots,

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Speaker 3: I'm so curious how they handle Jessn, but I think

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Speaker 3: their defense is going to hold up here, and I

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Speaker 3: think their defense will be well prepared for this game.

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Speaker 3: On the other side of the ball, Seattle's defense is dominant.

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Speaker 3: We know that. And you're gonna give McDonald two weeks

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Speaker 3: to prepare for this Patriots offense and they're gonna I

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Speaker 3: just you could. I'm curious again, what are the Seahawks

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Speaker 3: gonna do? Are they gonna run? Are they gonna mix

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Speaker 3: in more man here? Because they can they can say, look,

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Speaker 3: your receivers can't get open, and I don't. I don't

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Speaker 3: think that the Patriots receivers are gonna have a ton

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Speaker 3: of success in this matchup. Get to more of that later.

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Speaker 3: And by the way, Seattle's run defense is historically dominant.

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Speaker 3: So on both you have two dominant run defenses, two

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Speaker 3: offensive lines with holes, and what is that gonna lead

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Speaker 3: to lots of third downs? And that's when I think

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Speaker 3: these offensive lines are gonna break down. And I think

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be a field position game, and I think

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Speaker 3: both defenses are going to dominate play for most and

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Speaker 3: you look back. I mean, I'll get to McDaniel's game

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Speaker 3: plan and in a bit, But for twenty years, the

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Speaker 3: Patriots couldn't score early. I mean Brady didn't have a

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Speaker 3: touch They didn't have a touchdown on the first quarter

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Speaker 3: for like the first seven Super Bowls they were in.

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Speaker 3: So it's not like mcdanial's has come up with these

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Speaker 3: amazing game plans early on that like can so I

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Speaker 3: think I think McDonald has he's he's pretty good at adjusting.

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Speaker 3: But I I'm not like super worried that the Patriots

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Speaker 3: are going to have something that the Seahawks aren't ready

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Speaker 3: for that because I just think the Seahawks defense matches

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Speaker 3: up really well. That Patriots aren't gonna be able to

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Speaker 3: run the ball. The Seahawks can get pressure. Will Campbell's

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Speaker 3: gonna have a very tough time on the left side.

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Speaker 3: And I think both teams want to rely on their

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Speaker 3: defense here until they don't until they're forced not to.

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Speaker 3: So I think they're going to be conservative early. And

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Speaker 3: then you throw in like the nerves here too. You

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Speaker 3: have I mean, you have Sam Donald right first Super Bowl,

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Speaker 3: he's had issues in the past. He played amazing against

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Speaker 3: the Rams, but and then you have Drake May I

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Speaker 3: mean young kid in the Super Bowl. So you could

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Speaker 3: have some nervous quarterbacks with some overthrows and just missed

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Speaker 3: balls early. One thing I worry is turnovers here, which

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Speaker 3: could be a problem for both teams in these startdown situations.

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Speaker 3: But I mean that's random. They could come in the

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Speaker 3: red zone, they could come on their own side of

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Speaker 3: the field. But this plays out to me. I think

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Speaker 3: the Seahawks without too many flukes. You gotta remember this.

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Speaker 3: I mean the Seahawks offense without you know, you take

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Speaker 3: away the Rams when they played the Rams. It's kind

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Speaker 3: of been figured out a bit in the second half

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Speaker 3: of the season, and I think the Patriots defense matches

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Speaker 3: up well. And the Patriots offense we've seen they played

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Speaker 3: no defenses all year. We've seen when they faced top

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Speaker 3: five defenses that Drake may isn't you know, as productive

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Speaker 3: and as efficient. And part of that is because you

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Speaker 3: see the receivers, they're not elite. You see the offensive line,

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Speaker 3: there's major holes, the run games not overly efficient. Well,

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Speaker 3: now you're going up against another top five defense and

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Speaker 3: for my money, the best defensive mind in the NFL

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Speaker 3: with two weeks to prepare. I like the Patriot defensive

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Speaker 3: staff as well. So I think this is low scoring.

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Speaker 3: I think there's value on the little value in the

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Speaker 3: Patriots little value on the game under. So I'm going

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Speaker 3: to combine him go with the Seahawks team total under.

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Speaker 3: The reason I haven't played the Patriots yet. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's kind of correlated to the Seahawks team total under, but

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Speaker 3: there's still This is the most uncertain I can remember

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Speaker 3: with the Super Bowl team in my life, just because

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Speaker 3: the whole year they played the easiest schedule in twenty

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Speaker 3: five years, played backup quarterbacks, bad defenses, and then you

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Speaker 3: get into the playoffs, you face top five defenses. Offense

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Speaker 3: doesn't look great, but there's weather and you didn't have

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Speaker 3: to do much either, and then your defense looks elite,

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Speaker 3: but you were playing You played Yard Stidham in the

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Speaker 3: AFC Championship game. You have the Texans had all those injuries,

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Speaker 3: the charters offensive line, So like, we don't have a

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Speaker 3: great sample size and data set of this Patriots team

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Speaker 3: against like full elite teams. But I do think the

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Speaker 3: line's too high. Think the total is a bit too high.

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Speaker 3: So let's go Seattle team total under. And I'll touch

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Speaker 3: on a lot of the other aspects in the props

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Speaker 3: that are so fascinating in this game. We'll get to

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Speaker 3: like some MVP talks some special teams props as well

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Speaker 3: that I like, But curious to your thoughts on the game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I would lean Seattle on the under Actually,

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Speaker 2: so the thing about the Patriots to me is when

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Speaker 2: I look at both of these teams, I don't really

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Speaker 2: have any confidence in either of their offenses. I think

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Speaker 2: the difference between you and Ies, I'm a little bit

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Speaker 2: more bullet just like I think going into the Championships, like,

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Speaker 2: I'm a little more bullish on Seattle's offenses, particularly their

284
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Speaker 2: passing game, because I don't think they've exactly been figured out.

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Speaker 2: I do think they kind of changed some things up,

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Speaker 2: you know, in that second half. I think they got

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Speaker 2: more conservative at times. I think Shaheed was kind of

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Speaker 2: like a he didn't really add as much as like

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Speaker 2: if you look at Tory Horton and what he did

290
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Speaker 2: versus certain you know, coverages, it's like it Shaheed really

291
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Speaker 2: didn't give them much of anything as a receiver. I

292
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Speaker 2: think that actually held them back. I'm curious to see

293
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Speaker 2: if they end up. You know, Bobo is a better blocker,

294
00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:08,520
Speaker 2: tough as a blocker, you know, if they need help

295
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Speaker 2: in the run game, do you risk taking suit he'd

296
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Speaker 2: speed off the field. I think that's gonna be a

297
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Speaker 2: big kind of element of you know, the game here.

298
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Speaker 2: But overall, I still think I liked what I saw

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Speaker 2: Sam Darnold in that NFC Championship game. I thought he

300
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 2: was I thought he was slinging it. I thought he

301
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Speaker 2: was confident. And that's what he's gonna need to do

302
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Speaker 2: against the Patriots, because I don't know if they're gonna

303
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Speaker 2: be able to take away JSN, especially two weeks to prepare.

304
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Speaker 2: I mean, this Seattle staff is amazing too. I just

305
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Speaker 2: don't I think it's gonna be a chess match. But

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Speaker 2: I mean, aside from maybe you know, maybe you get

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Speaker 2: really super super physical and just kind of risk penalties

308
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Speaker 2: and ejections, usually kind of play it that way, but

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Speaker 2: I don't think. I don't know if the Patriots are

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Speaker 2: gonna do that. But other than that, I mean, Christian

311
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Speaker 2: Dezaliz has been targeted one hundred and one times this

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Speaker 2: year he plays. He would play on the side of

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Speaker 2: the field that Jaysn lines up the most when he's

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Speaker 2: not in the slot, So I feel like they're gonna

315
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Speaker 2: they're gonna match up a ton anyway. He got targeted

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Speaker 2: was it sixteen times against Houston? Uh in, you know,

317
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Speaker 2: and then he gave up almost sixty yards against the

318
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Speaker 2: Broncos on a couple of catches. Five targets. But I

319
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Speaker 2: think JSN is gonna get his And I just think

320
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Speaker 2: that when I look at New England, I don't know

321
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Speaker 2: how they're gonna run the ball. I don't know who

322
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Speaker 2: is going to consistently get open in the past game

323
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Speaker 2: because that Seattle scheme, I mean, they have like four

324
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Speaker 2: safeties they have, right, and so you're gonna you're gonna

325
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Speaker 2: be able to shut down a run. And an underrated

326
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Speaker 2: element of and I'll get to my bet in my

327
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Speaker 2: first bet in a minute, but an underrated element of

328
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Speaker 2: Seattle being able to play dime is that what you

329
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Speaker 2: what's the most dangerous threat for New England's offense at

330
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Speaker 2: this point if you're just handicapping the game, in my opinion,

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Speaker 2: it's Drake May using his leg. So even that, like

332
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Speaker 2: you know, there's some is just to having more, you know,

333
00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,600
Speaker 2: faster defensive backs on the field. You could you could

334
00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 2: play around with spies. You know, you have two guys

335
00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,679
Speaker 2: that can play slot corners. So it's like, you know,

336
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:14,640
Speaker 2: the Patriots they're outside receivers are Mac Collins and Kashawn

337
00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:20,359
Speaker 2: Boute right booty. So it's like if those guys and

338
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 2: you know, you're gonna be running if they if those

339
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Speaker 2: guys go deep, they're going into those safeties, which is

340
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Speaker 2: kind of the best part of Seattle's defense, uh, you know,

341
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Speaker 2: in the secondary. And then if you're going underneath, you've

342
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Speaker 2: gotta got war you got Witherspoon. Who's who's gonna play.

343
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Speaker 2: And that's why they can man up. They can play zone.

344
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:40,080
Speaker 2: They could they could just I mean Drake May.

345
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Speaker 3: They're gonna do a lot of simulated pressures that yeah,

346
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Speaker 3: and then they're gonna be able to get pressure too

347
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Speaker 3: without blitzing. And and the Patriots are definitely gonna be

348
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Speaker 3: in third down known passing situation.

349
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Speaker 2: So like that, and because I thought about the Patriots,

350
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Speaker 2: it was really tempting because and I don't know if

351
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 2: I feel comfortable enough honestly betting the Seahawks, because I

352
00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:59,359
Speaker 2: do have a ton of respect for Brabel and for

353
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Speaker 2: Drake May, and I think Drake May is the kind

354
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Speaker 2: of quarterback that could change this game. Because you're talking

355
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Speaker 2: about Drake May versus Sam Donald. Sam Donald could turn

356
00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,199
Speaker 2: into a pumpkin. Drake may can use his legs and

357
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,560
Speaker 2: be a difference maker, and you know he could. He's fearless, right,

358
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 2: so you know he has what it takes. But I mean,

359
00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 2: my god, was this Patriot. I thought this Patriot offense

360
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,399
Speaker 2: was just awful in the entire playoffs. They just played

361
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 2: like Justin Herbert who just doesn't know how to play once,

362
00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 2: you know, once the regular season is over.

363
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:29,600
Speaker 1: C J.

364
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:33,720
Speaker 2: Stroud who once knew how to play but apparently forgot

365
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:38,959
Speaker 2: and then and then you also, I mean that was

366
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 2: that was on Stroud, right, right? So I mean the

367
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,760
Speaker 2: Patriots offense not only and and again, this is a continuation.

368
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Speaker 2: And this is what worries me. It's like it's essentially

369
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 2: I think both defenses have the edge, but the Patriots

370
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,920
Speaker 2: I find I struggle to even see how they score,

371
00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 2: at least with the Seahawks. Like I think JSN is

372
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:06,359
Speaker 2: still a decent bet to produce. With the Patriots, I

373
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 2: really don't know where I'm getting that production from. I

374
00:20:08,760 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 2: could anywhere you look, you could make a case kind

375
00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,639
Speaker 2: of both ways. Whereas JSN, it's like they're gonna have

376
00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,880
Speaker 2: some Obviously everyone's scheming to stop him. But overall, you're

377
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,800
Speaker 2: gonna hold him, you know, under five or six catches,

378
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,800
Speaker 2: they're gonna hold him under seventy yards, eighty yards probably not.

379
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 2: You know, I don't know where the Patriots get that

380
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 2: kind of offense from. Uh and even if it's hard

381
00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 2: for it to be a group effort because he Hado's.

382
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 3: Defense is so strong.

383
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 2: So that's kind of where I'm at with the Patriots.

384
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 2: I Mean, there was a stat you know, looking at

385
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,640
Speaker 2: the last the quarterbacks quarterbacks over the last ten years

386
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 2: that started, you know, three games in the postseason, and

387
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 2: the ringer had a stat that was essentially like Drake

388
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 2: may has been the worst out of all those quarterbacks,

389
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 2: you know, in terms of the EPA. So he's been

390
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 2: careless with the ball. So all the worries I have

391
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 2: about Donald are kind of exacerbating. It was made because

392
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,360
Speaker 2: he's younger, less experienced, like Darnood was on that Niners.

393
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 2: He was sitting on the bench on that Niner Super

394
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 2: Bowl squad a couple of years ago. So it's like

395
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 2: he's been you know, he's been kind of around the

396
00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:15,120
Speaker 2: block here, two straight fourteen win seasons. You know, he's

397
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 2: not exactly you know, just because he's not the best,

398
00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 2: the most talented quarterback in the game. I don't necessarily

399
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 2: know if that overrides it for me. So that's where

400
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 2: I'm at with the game. I do. I do think

401
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 2: the under I do agree. I think that that total

402
00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 2: is way too high. You're probably getting like a couple

403
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 2: of extra points just because the Super Bowl or something.

404
00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 2: But I you know, there could be turnovers, there could

405
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: be special teams, but both special teams I think will

406
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 2: kind of cancel each other out. Like here's a question,

407
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 2: does anyone punch anyone in this game? Like at all? Yeah?

408
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:48,120
Speaker 3: I like, so there might be a lot of punts,

409
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 3: which is which is scary a lot.

410
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:50,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

411
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 3: So, like like Kerner played that under longest punt, so

412
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 3: I like I I like like that under fifty seven

413
00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 3: and a half for uh longest punt for Dixon. He

414
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 3: like kind of changed his approach after DK returned one

415
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 3: for a touchdown and basically no punts are being returned,

416
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,639
Speaker 3: and I think that, So I kind of like that

417
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 3: and that stadium so that you're that stadium is also

418
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,480
Speaker 3: punts in general have been a little shorter on average historically,

419
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, I think so I like that one. I

420
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 3: also like under under touchbacks that Kerner gave out because

421
00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 3: I I just don't think that either one of these

422
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 3: teams wants to let the others start at the thirty

423
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: five in this game. So and I think this is

424
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,360
Speaker 3: when you're gonna have some wrinkles on your on your

425
00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:49,640
Speaker 3: kick coverage and your punt. Like with all the game

426
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 3: planning Marcus Jones, you have Rashichi, you are not letting

427
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 3: either one of those guys beat you with your defenses.

428
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 3: So no, I think there's going to be a major

429
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 3: focus on not punting to them high hang time or

430
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,360
Speaker 3: hangling punts out of bounds and not giving them opportunities,

431
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 3: which is why I like under eighteen and a half.

432
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,360
Speaker 3: I think it might go up. So I'm waiting under

433
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 3: eighteen and a half longest punt return. It's scary with

434
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: those two, but both coverage units are good and I

435
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 3: don't think that they're going to get many opportunities for

436
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: long returns. And she will fair catch a bunch as well.

437
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 3: He obviously is explosive, but I like that as well.

438
00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 3: The other thing with the Seahawks team total under is

439
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 3: McDonald is very conservative and he's going to coach this

440
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 3: game like unless it's like you know, the Rams game,

441
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: and the Rams are in the thirties and probably screwed anyway.

442
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 3: But I don't think the Patriots office is going to

443
00:23:57,080 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 3: be able to do that. So I mean, they don't

444
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 3: could they don't go for fourth. They'll take the field goals,

445
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 3: they'll play field position, they'll play them. They were seven

446
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,919
Speaker 3: to twelve and fourth down during the regular season. That's it,

447
00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 3: seven and twelve, so that helps as well. And you

448
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 3: know super rules tend to start out slow, which would

449
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 3: help this as well. I mean, I think over the

450
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 3: last ten years they've averaged less than seven points in

451
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 3: the first quarter. I used to always bet the first

452
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 3: quarter under I guess I would lean that way again,

453
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 3: but you know, it's eight seven and a half, eight

454
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 3: and a half. You used to be ten. Not anymore.

455
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:32,760
Speaker 3: Books have adjusted there, but a lot of nerves. I

456
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:35,919
Speaker 3: think I trust both defensive game plans more than the

457
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,959
Speaker 3: offensive game plans. So absolutely, let's go Seattle team total

458
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 3: under where you're going for your first pick?

459
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 2: For my first pick is the second overall of the

460
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 2: Super Bowl sixty Sunday six pack. I'm going with Drake

461
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,720
Speaker 2: May over thirty six and a half rushing yards thirty

462
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 2: seven and a half. Thirty eight and a half is

463
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,959
Speaker 2: out there like them all. I think Drake May is

464
00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 2: going to have to carry the Patriots using his legs

465
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 2: in this game because and there's a there's a couple

466
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 2: of trends as well that kind of put me in

467
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 2: this direction. But let's just look at the the matchups

468
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 2: on the field, and I kind of hit it on

469
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:15,199
Speaker 2: it already. But you know, on the outside, you have

470
00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,399
Speaker 2: two kind of lower volume, you know, low target for

471
00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,199
Speaker 2: route guys and Mac Collins, who they like more as

472
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,360
Speaker 2: a run blocker. Has been good receiver for them this year,

473
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: but more of a run blocker and uh. And then

474
00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 2: you have kashm Booty on the other side. So now

475
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 2: if you're going deep, you're going into those Seattle safeties.

476
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 2: Those guys have given up almost nothing down the field.

477
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 2: And then you have Witherspoon. Diggs is a guy who

478
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 2: can go inside outside. Witherspoon can do the same thing.

479
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 2: He can follow them Emon Wurry. They've also used him

480
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 2: in man coverage at different times on elite receivers. I

481
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,199
Speaker 2: wouldn't be surprised if he's on digs at at points

482
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 2: in the game. But the reason I worry, And you're

483
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 2: gonna talk about Hunter Henry in a bit, and we

484
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,520
Speaker 2: kind of went back and forth in this and the

485
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,240
Speaker 2: only reason Seattle has been like that's been the one

486
00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 2: position that Seattle has given up production.

487
00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 3: Two.

488
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 2: But I don't even think that's a slam dunk. I

489
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 2: think it's the probably the best bet on the Patriots,

490
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,760
Speaker 2: and Hunter Henry is a good tight end. But that's

491
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 2: what worries me is that usually, you know, teams are

492
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 2: gonna kind of weave their running back in the block,

493
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 2: or their running back is going to be running like

494
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: a checkdown and short of the sticks on key downs, right,

495
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,679
Speaker 2: So the most important guy that's actually gonna get out

496
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 2: into the pattern is going to be the tight end

497
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,800
Speaker 2: who's the worst like receiver on a team, Which is

498
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:39,879
Speaker 2: why I think Seattle tends to want to give up

499
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 2: production to tight ends. With Hunter Henry, they may they

500
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 2: may not be fooled by that. They may say, Okay, well,

501
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 2: this guy's, you know, the second best receiver on the team,

502
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 2: so let's put emon worry on him, or let's double

503
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 2: hit him. And you know, they're just so many, they

504
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 2: have all these safeties. So it's that that worries me

505
00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: because I don't think McDonald's going to fall into the

506
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,479
Speaker 2: trap of Okay, Henry had a quiet game. Uh, and

507
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: you know, now and we give up, you know, that's

508
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 2: what we prefer to give up. So let's just automatically

509
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 2: do that. Like it could happen. It could, and it could.

510
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 2: He could just get there in you know, two minute

511
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 2: garbage time whatever. But I don't know that he's not

512
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 2: going to be a big part of the defensive focus

513
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 2: for New England for Seattle. Excuse me, So.

514
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,159
Speaker 3: He's not a slam blunk. Well, I mean the bne rebuttal,

515
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,400
Speaker 3: the bine rebuttal won rebuttal of that is. I mean, yeah,

516
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,680
Speaker 3: the Seahawks do funnel like they just they want to

517
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 3: right too bad tight ends though, like I mean just

518
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: and that's not necessarily true. I mean, they played the

519
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 3: Falcons who didn't have true true Drake London. They were

520
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 3: the wide receivers were David Sills and Devin Tompkins and

521
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 3: Darnel Mooney and Dylan and Pits went for six for

522
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 3: ninety on ten targets. Uh. And then you know McBride

523
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 3: nine for one twenty seven in one game, seven for

524
00:27:57,680 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 3: fifty two on in another game. You know, Schultz went

525
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 3: nine for one hundred against them, and then Hunter Henry

526
00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 3: last year went for over one hundred against them. They

527
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 3: they're okay with you throwing their tight end and then

528
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:14,719
Speaker 3: a lot of times you're gonna have smaller guys on

529
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 3: Henry and just but they're gonna use a lot of

530
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 3: simulated pressures. You gotta get rid of the ball. He's

531
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 3: gonna just have. It's gonna be a well, I don't know.

532
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: I'll get to that in a minute, but go back to.

533
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, but yeah, my point is for me anyway, no

534
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 2: receiver on New England is a slammed up because Diggs

535
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,959
Speaker 2: is going up against their best corner or you know,

536
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 2: they're just best you know, defender period. And then also

537
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 2: got to remember, like I think it was Love didn't

538
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 2: didn't like they didn't have all their safeties healthy at

539
00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 2: the same time, with their full secondary and everybody until

540
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 2: like week fourteen, So you know, some of those tight

541
00:28:49,080 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 2: end numbers, like I thought, I thought McVeigh actually lost

542
00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 2: the game trying to throw the technic. I think we

543
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: talked about it going into last week. It was like,

544
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 2: all right, is you know, is how is this McDonald

545
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 2: McVay matchup gonna play out, and for the most part

546
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: thought McVay had had the edge because he kind of

547
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 2: surprised McDonald a little bit. But that sequence when he uh,

548
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: I think it was like con not a monkfield on

549
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,520
Speaker 2: third down when he drove like eighty four yards from

550
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: their six to like the other side or if they're

551
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 2: ten to the six, and it was like con not

552
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 2: a month Fitt on third down and then Ferguson on

553
00:29:20,480 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: fourth down and then it'll end the game. Before that

554
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:25,280
Speaker 2: he targets like, like, I don't know, it seemed like

555
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: a weird postseason where teams it's like you're getting into

556
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 2: trouble targeting your tight end. So I just don't know.

557
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 2: I think I just think McDonald might have something of

558
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 2: a sleeve for Henry. Uh. That's why I'm not like,

559
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 2: I don't think it's a slam dunk. Stevenson. I think

560
00:29:39,360 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 2: could do some things, but uh, he also you know,

561
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 2: if they're doing a lot of just uh kind of confused.

562
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: And remember Drake may is a second year quarterback. You know,

563
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 2: will he be quick with all the things he has

564
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:56,479
Speaker 2: to change at the line, all the things he has

565
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 2: to do you know, if they're if they're kind of

566
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 2: confusing him, because ramondra Stevenson would then have to stay

567
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 2: in the block, you know, over Henry, because Henry's the

568
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 2: guy you want out run a route. So it's tough

569
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: to find anyone for me, passing wise, for New England

570
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 2: to go. So that's why I like Drake may to

571
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 2: need to scramble a lot. I just don't think guys

572
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 2: are gonna be opened a ton, and I think you know,

573
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 2: he's going to resort to his instincts, you know, when

574
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: if he's confused at the line of he get if

575
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 2: he's wait kind of changing a protection or something like that,

576
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: he's just gonna take off. You know, He's not. I

577
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 2: don't think he's, especially after all these sacks and fumbles.

578
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 2: Like I think he's just gonna be quick to take off.

579
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,480
Speaker 2: But if you look at just down the stretch, they've

580
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 2: also made him a bigger part of the designed run game,

581
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 2: and that might be essential here because Seattle, as you mentioned,

582
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 2: has just been so good against the run. I actually

583
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: think New England might be the better run dye with

584
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 2: Milton Williams healthy. But like Seattle by the Numbers is

585
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 2: historically good. They're number one in run defense DVOA. You

586
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,320
Speaker 2: know New England with Milton Williams. It's sixth and fourth

587
00:30:56,360 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: against back. So Seattle by the numbers is stronger. Greag

588
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 2: Bay is just gonna have to run the ball. And

589
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 2: if you look at Okay, they had the late the

590
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 2: last team with the buy them of the Giants before

591
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 2: the bye, one point one designed runs per game a

592
00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: four percent designed rush market chare. This is excluding Neil downs.

593
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 2: After the buy, he goes from one point one to

594
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 2: two point zero design runs per game. Uh, that market

595
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: chair doubles from four to eight percent. And you could

596
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:30,320
Speaker 2: tell that they started calling more like you know options

597
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 2: that they and you know, uh end around sweeps and

598
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 2: things like that, not just you know, quarterback snakes. Because

599
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 2: you look at his designed rushes yards per carry before

600
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 2: the buy one point four yards per carry, designed yards

601
00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:46,120
Speaker 2: per carry after the by four point three. So that's

602
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 2: you know, that's kind of just like a normal rusher there.

603
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 2: And then not only that, but he he started scrambling.

604
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 2: He wasn't going down as quickly when he was scrambling either.

605
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 2: Over these last seven games after the buy six point

606
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: six yards for scramble before the buy ten point eight

607
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 2: after the bye. So Drake May already has been trending

608
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 2: way up rushing. I think he's gonna have to leave

609
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 2: it all on the field here. I don't think guys

610
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 2: are gonna be open. I think he's gonna get more

611
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 2: designed runs and then stuck. You and I talked about

612
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 2: this in the Conference championship matchup Will Campbell Jared Wilson,

613
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 2: those those young guys on the offensive line, those rookies,

614
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 2: they might have a promising future, but they've been shaky

615
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,200
Speaker 2: and they Drake May has actually gotten sacked at a

616
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: high rate with both of those guys in the lineup,

617
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 2: and he's had a scramble. There's just been more pressure

618
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 2: with those guys in than out. So if you look

619
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,360
Speaker 2: at the weeks one through twelve in nineteen to twenty

620
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 2: one where Campbell and Wilson both played, May has a

621
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: ten point seven sack rate, ten point four percent scramble rate,

622
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 2: and in the weeks where either one or both missed,

623
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 2: his sack rate was six point eight percent and scramble

624
00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: rate was eight point seven. So when those guys are in,

625
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 2: there tends to be more pressure, more issues, more May

626
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 2: just kind of running for his life and New England's

627
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 2: twenty ninth in pressure against you know, four man or

628
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: less rushes. Seattle is fourth in pressure when they do

629
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 2: not blitz. So I do think Seattle will get home.

630
00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 2: I don't think they'll have to blitz, and I think,

631
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: you know, that will kind of make May get out

632
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: of the pocket. And I don't think he's gonna see

633
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 2: receivers open, and I think he's gonna just have some

634
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 2: issues at the line of scrimmage as well. So all

635
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 2: of this leads me to go over on and Drake

636
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 2: May's rushing yardage, I don't mind his attempts either. I

637
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 2: think yardage is the best way to play it. So

638
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 2: going over thirty six and a half.

639
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 3: All right, all have thoughts. I'll add some thoughts to

640
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:53,160
Speaker 3: that in my breakdown of my second pick and the

641
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 3: third overall of the Super Bowl Sunday six pack. I'm

642
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 3: going with Hunter Henry over thirty nine and a half

643
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 3: receiving yards. That's my official pick. I also bet over

644
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 3: sixteen and a half longest reception. I think seventeen and

645
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,359
Speaker 3: a half is the number that's pretty much out there now,

646
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 3: still like that, and over three and a half catches

647
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,080
Speaker 3: spread it out. I also bet him a long shot

648
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,720
Speaker 3: long to lead the lead the game in receiving yards

649
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 3: eleven twelve to one, which he almost did last year

650
00:34:25,920 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 3: against this Seattle defense where he finished with over one

651
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 3: hundred yards and JSN and I think Metcalf also just

652
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:39,360
Speaker 3: eaked him out. I mean that Patriots team was horrific,

653
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:44,240
Speaker 3: but he had a really good day against this McDonald defense.

654
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:48,840
Speaker 3: As tight ends tend to do a funnel a lot

655
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:50,799
Speaker 3: of stuff to the tight ends. And now you could say,

656
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 3: maybe they're going to focus on that, but I could

657
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 3: say the same thing with your Drake May thing. I mean,

658
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 3: that's the thing I'm right about with Drake May. Scrambley,

659
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 3: Like Drake May's legs had been the difference for the

660
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 3: offense over the past couple of weeks. Do they just say, like, look,

661
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 3: we don't trust your receivers that get open. We're going

662
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 3: to dedicate another resource to making sure Mate doesn't scramble.

663
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 3: That will be my concern there. But the Seahawks can

664
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:16,200
Speaker 3: be vulnerable to scrambles in their zone heavy defense. We'll

665
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 3: see what they're split is. I mean, it's a zone

666
00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 3: heavy defense predominantly that doesn't give up explosive plays, but

667
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 3: there's gonna be oper like. So when I think about

668
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 3: how this game is gonna be played out, like I said,

669
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 3: I don't think the Patri's gonna be able to run the ball,

670
00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 3: and I think that the drake may is gonna have

671
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 3: to get rid of the ball quick. There's gonna be

672
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 3: a lot of simulated pressures. There's gonna be pressure even

673
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 3: without blitzing. And I think his and I don't think

674
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,320
Speaker 3: the receiver is gonna be able to get separation. Where

675
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 3: does that lead? If that leads to running backs dump downs,

676
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,959
Speaker 3: the running backs might have to help block some more.

677
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 3: I think a lot of the targets are going to

678
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 3: go to Henry. And if you just look at the

679
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 3: numbers on the season, the Seahawks allowed six catches on

680
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 3: the eight and a half targets for sixty four yards

681
00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 3: per game to tight ends. Fifteen of their nineteen games

682
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 3: they allowed a catch of at least seventeen yards, and

683
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 3: Henry on the year he was targeted four point seven

684
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 3: times a game at three point three catches forty two

685
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 3: and a half yards, and he had twelve of his

686
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 3: twenty games he had at least a seventeen yard catch

687
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 3: eleven of twenty he had least an eighteen yard catch.

688
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 3: And here's what you have to remember, the Patriots for

689
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:32,240
Speaker 3: most of the year in the playoffs, they were playing

690
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 3: in weather and they had the game in hand, and

691
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 3: the entire year they were blowing out bad teams. They

692
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:41,239
Speaker 3: were in favorable game scripts. They're more likely to be

693
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 3: having to play from behind here, having to throw more,

694
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 3: and not being able to run the ball at all. So,

695
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 3: like all of those Henry numbers are probably suppressed, and

696
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 3: you're playing against the defense that you're probably not going

697
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 3: to be able to get separation with your receiver. So

698
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,360
Speaker 3: I just think he's going to get a lot of

699
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 3: targets here. I think he's going to get seven to

700
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 3: eight targets in the game, and I think he's gonna

701
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 3: hit one big one down the scene. That's I think

702
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:08,000
Speaker 3: this plays out. And if you look at McDaniel's over

703
00:37:08,080 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 3: the past, his past five Super bowls with the Patriots,

704
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 3: now three of them are with Gronk, but one of

705
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 3: them was with Martell's Bennett and the other one was

706
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:21,800
Speaker 3: Aaron Hernandez. It's seventeen targets, eleven targets, six targets, fifteen

707
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:27,280
Speaker 3: targets and seven targets to tight ends average fifty six targets.

708
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 3: The tight ends average of over eleven the average for

709
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,640
Speaker 3: the primary tight end. I'm not even counting the secondary

710
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 3: tight ends. The primary tight end finished with an average

711
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 3: of six point eight catches for eighty yards. I mean

712
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:44,520
Speaker 3: Martell's Bennet had five for sixty two in one Super Bowl.

713
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 3: So you know, as the also four and a half

714
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:50,000
Speaker 3: point dog, like I said, likely to be playing from behind,

715
00:37:50,320 --> 00:37:51,759
Speaker 3: may having to throw more. I don't think you're be

716
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 3: able to run more. I don't think they're gonna be

717
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,680
Speaker 3: able to throw to the receivers much. This has to

718
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,240
Speaker 3: be I wouldn't be shocked if Henry got ten targets

719
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,359
Speaker 3: in this game. That's who he's gonna have to look

720
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:08,880
Speaker 3: to early and often. I also don't mind some Hooper props,

721
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 3: to be honest, I just don't know how they're going

722
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 3: to use him. I never do well with the backup

723
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 3: tight end. Remember to try to bet Noah Gray and

724
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 3: oh my goodness.

725
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,400
Speaker 2: I mean I was on Trout. I mean yeah, this

726
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 2: is yeah, that's what I'm saying this. This, this whole

727
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 2: postseason seems like just a disaster for tight ends like McVeigh.

728
00:38:24,920 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 2: Remember at the end of the Bears game, he almost

729
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 2: screwed up that game because he was targeting like Parkinson

730
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,839
Speaker 2: deep ball and then Ferguson deep ball incomplete lucky they

731
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 2: made that field goal. Like it just seems like either

732
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 2: like I don't know, something like all the all the

733
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 2: smart coaches got together and decided like we're actually not

734
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 2: going to go to tight ends and we're gonna try

735
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 2: to trick them when we're gonna do it, and then

736
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 2: still doesn't work. I don't know, it's weird.

737
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just don't think the Pagers have any other

738
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 3: choice than to go to Henry A bunch here, So yeah,

739
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 3: I think and you you projected a forty two and

740
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 3: a half.

741
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think Henry's the best bet him

742
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 2: and you know it's it's him or Stevenson. And then

743
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,239
Speaker 2: I do think Diggs will get his targets. I don't

744
00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:04,879
Speaker 2: know how a fishing will be, but I do think

745
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 2: he'll get his targ I did that Biggs over.

746
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 3: Five and a half receiving yards in a third quarter.

747
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:13,840
Speaker 2: Till oh yeah, Kurney was talking about that.

748
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, his targets. And I think that and like McDaniel's

749
00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 3: makes great adjustments in Super Bowl, so I think that

750
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 3: they'll see what the Seahawks are doing and then get

751
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 3: him a couple. So I like that look from Cerner,

752
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 3: But uh, he'll check out the prop shows where he

753
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 3: talks about that, but his targets go way up in

754
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 3: the third quarter. But yeah, so I'm buying Hunter Henry

755
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 3: as my prop guy for the Super Bowl. Hopefully it

756
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 3: goes as well. One year, I was all in on

757
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 3: Danny Woodhead and McDaniel's rewarded me. Hopefully he rewards me. Here,

758
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 3: where are you going for your second pick?

759
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:51,919
Speaker 2: Before we get to the rest of the six pack,

760
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 2: here's your weekly reminder to sign up for Action Pro.

761
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,360
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762
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763
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,560
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764
00:40:04,600 --> 00:40:07,000
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765
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:10,759
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766
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: experts release picks. You don't have to wait those thirty

767
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 2: minutes when the line may have moved already. All that,

768
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769
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:25,319
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770
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771
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:34,840
Speaker 2: pro right now to take advantage. The rest of the

772
00:40:35,160 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack is coming right up. But first I'll

773
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,760
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774
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783
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 2: the crown is yours. For my second pick and the

784
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 2: fourth overall of the Super Bowl sixty Sunday six pack,

785
00:41:20,440 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 2: I'm going Kenneth Walker under seventy three and a half

786
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 2: rushing yards. And for my third pick and the fifth

787
00:41:27,520 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 2: overall of the Super Bowl sixty six pack, i am

788
00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 2: going with the Seattle Seahawks team total under one hundred

789
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 2: and six and a half rushing yards. So we've been

790
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:40,320
Speaker 2: talking about this, but I'll just go over the splits

791
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 2: with Milton Williams. New England has played fifteen games with

792
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 2: him active, they've given up eighty point six rushing yards

793
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 2: per game. They've given up three point six five yards

794
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 2: per carry. That his first in the league, and without

795
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: him that goes from eighty point six yards per game

796
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: to one hundred and four forty six point eight. So literally,

797
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 2: I mean almost doubles in terms of the yards per game,

798
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 2: and the yards per carry goes from first in the

799
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,880
Speaker 2: league to thirtieth five point zero yards per carry in

800
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 2: the five games that Williams missed. He I mean, and

801
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 2: we remember Vrabel with Simmons down there in Tennessee, like

802
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 2: when he has a guy that could just eat blocks

803
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,680
Speaker 2: and just anchor that middle. I mean, he does some

804
00:42:23,920 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 2: great things with run defenses, and we're seeing that again here.

805
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:31,240
Speaker 2: So with kens Walker. If you look at New England

806
00:42:31,280 --> 00:42:35,719
Speaker 2: specifically against running backs in the games Milton Williams has

807
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 2: been active just three point two yards per carry to

808
00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 2: opposing running backs a minuscule touchdown rate of point seven percent,

809
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 2: which is well I think you know, if you if

810
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 2: you're looking for touchdowns this game, you want to look

811
00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 2: you know, like Donald Over, you know one and a half,

812
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 2: you want to look at the receivers in this game.

813
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,120
Speaker 2: You know, they're third in EPA against running backs at

814
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 2: nearly negative point two negative point one, nine to eight,

815
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 2: which is ridiculous because you know, run plays generally like

816
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 2: you're not. It's just kind of you know, break even

817
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 2: or a little worse like this is like this, their

818
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 2: defense is really making a difference on the ground against backs.

819
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 2: Twenty a negative twenty three point eight percent DVA is

820
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 2: forced against backs in the games Williams has played. So

821
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 2: it's just been lights out. And remember Kenneth Walker, you

822
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 2: know he had that We remember that game he had

823
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:31,799
Speaker 2: against San Francisco when Sharbening went down nineteen carries, one

824
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 2: hundred and sixteen yards, three touchdowns. He was amazing in

825
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: that game, and he was amazing. He was great in

826
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 2: the game before that against the Niners as well, sixteen

827
00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 2: for ninety seven. But outside of that, I mean, you

828
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 2: look at Okay Carolina was the game before that, fifteen

829
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 2: for fifty one, and then against the Rams of the

830
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 2: conference championship when the entire backfield was basically you know,

831
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 2: his with a little bit of Hawani, I guess mixed

832
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 2: in on passing downs. Walker nineteen carries, but just sixty

833
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 2: two yards. So I like him under anything seventy or higher,

834
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,360
Speaker 2: you know, every anything in the sevens. I think he

835
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 2: could come well short of this.

836
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: I also think he was not great against against the

837
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:19,040
Speaker 3: top run defenses that Seattle faced when their their numbers

838
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 3: went way down.

839
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 2: Mentioned the interior. The interior line is just it's not great.

840
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he breaks He gets his explosive runs on

841
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 3: the outside by breaking outside. The Patriots are elite at

842
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 3: defending on the outside against runs, so uh yeah, I mean,

843
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 3: and this Patriots runty is legit. I mean, you look

844
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,719
Speaker 3: they faced they faced a really tough schedule too, and

845
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 3: when they were healthy, they shut everyone down. So yeah,

846
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:45,000
Speaker 3: I like that.

847
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 2: Love. Yeah, and I'll give, I'll give. I'll just give

848
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 2: a couple of stats on the Seahawks team and then

849
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 2: you can close this out. But uh so, for the

850
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 2: team to to rushing one of six and a half,

851
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 2: we don't even think Walker is getting into the seventies.

852
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,480
Speaker 2: We're I mean, you're we're talking about either of like

853
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:05,759
Speaker 2: a Shaheed breaking one like Sam Donald's almost certainly not

854
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 2: getting you, you know, thirty ish plus yards. He doesn't

855
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 2: even do the sneaks. It's it's Barner. So you're gonna talk.

856
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 2: You're gonna need scrambles for him. But Seattle loves to

857
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 2: run outside zone. They do it thirty percent of the time,

858
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 2: four point eight yards per carry with Bill Williams in

859
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 2: New England against outside zone number one in the week

860
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 2: three point zer yards per carry. Uh man is kind

861
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:36,440
Speaker 2: of man concepts. Another thing, Seattle runs about just under

862
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 2: recuord of the time with decent success. New England two

863
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:44,040
Speaker 2: point six yards per carry, first in the league. It's

864
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:46,920
Speaker 2: basically they're basically first against everything but inside zone. For

865
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 2: they're six to three point five yards per carry. Uh So, yeah,

866
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 2: no efficiency expected for Seattle. And also they New England

867
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 2: tends to stack the box and Seattle's already faced a

868
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 2: high rate of stack by ninth highest, but New England

869
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 2: is seven highest. And they allowed just three point three

870
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:07,719
Speaker 2: yards to carry when they stacked the box. So and

871
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,760
Speaker 2: they could because I mean, like you said, Seattle really

872
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 2: has it's just one receiver that you're really worried about.

873
00:46:13,960 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, I just don't see how Seattle gets to

874
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,719
Speaker 2: this anywhere close to the hundreds here. I think it's

875
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,279
Speaker 2: gonna have to be a pass heavy script even from

876
00:46:23,320 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 2: the onset. So yeah, Walker under rushing yardage, Seahawks team

877
00:46:27,760 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 2: total under yardage. Those are my two last two for

878
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl sixty six packs.

879
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:37,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Like, I don't see the Pagers getting blown out

880
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 3: of the water, which is where I would worry about that,

881
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 3: where you just have the Sea Hawks running like thirty

882
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 3: five times, you know, just up big. But I don't

883
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 3: see that happening. So yeah, I like those looks. But

884
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 3: for all I'm gonna stick in that same department for

885
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 3: my third and the final overall pick of the Super

886
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 3: Bowl sixty Sunday six pack end of our season, I'm

887
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:11,720
Speaker 3: going with the Seattle Seahawks over four and a half

888
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 3: players to record a rush attempt. You can find this

889
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 3: at plus one fifteen plus one twenty. I also like

890
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 3: this came out. I bet this logged it on the

891
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 3: Action app. It was over seven and a half. We

892
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 3: were recording the favoriteill I was talking about it. Over

893
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,239
Speaker 3: seven and a half was plus one thirty and over

894
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:30,879
Speaker 3: four and a half of the Seahawks was plus one

895
00:47:30,920 --> 00:47:33,120
Speaker 3: twenty five, which made no sense because if the sales

896
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 3: got five, there's no way that wasn't gonna go over

897
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,280
Speaker 3: seven and a half. It got correct.

898
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: The Qravon they were just baking on like a Travon zero.

899
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:42,920
Speaker 3: I guess the kid, Yeah, they they got correct the

900
00:47:42,960 --> 00:47:44,960
Speaker 3: quick it's like minus one fifty. Now I still like

901
00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 3: it over seven and a half total. So but for

902
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 3: the Seahawks, that's my favorite. Look at plus money over

903
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:53,920
Speaker 3: four and a half. Walker he's gonna get you know,

904
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 3: he's gonna get a carry. Darnold very likely to at

905
00:47:57,160 --> 00:48:01,560
Speaker 3: least have one, and then Alani should get at least one,

906
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:10,280
Speaker 3: and then you're probably gonna have Barner get a sneak

907
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 3: a short yardage. By the way, there's a bet you

908
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,680
Speaker 3: could there's a bet will the Seahawks attempt to pass

909
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 3: inside the one yard line going back. I think it's

910
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 3: a callback to the Super Bowl when they threw when

911
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 3: the interception so Barner could get one, he's their sneak.

912
00:48:28,560 --> 00:48:31,200
Speaker 3: The touch Bush got you know, fourth and one here,

913
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:33,880
Speaker 3: you're not you're going with Barner, You're going with a

914
00:48:33,920 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 3: touch bush the other thing, and then I think you

915
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,360
Speaker 3: have to get creative in this game. We just said,

916
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 3: neither team is going to be able to run the

917
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 3: ball with the way that they usually run it, so

918
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,280
Speaker 3: they're gonna have to get creative. You have two weeks

919
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,439
Speaker 3: to come up with creative ways to run the ball.

920
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:54,080
Speaker 3: So what does that mean here? That's Shaheed probably gets

921
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 3: a rush attempt. In my opinion, you might also get

922
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 3: jsnush attempt. You could also get you know, barner on

923
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:10,279
Speaker 3: just some other type of play, you know, down near

924
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 3: the goal line to get am a carry on, some

925
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 3: kind of trap or something. So I think you have

926
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:18,240
Speaker 3: to get creative. The Seattle has to get very creative.

927
00:49:18,239 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 3: I think that New England does as well. And I

928
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 3: think that there's a really good shot that they get

929
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 3: to at least five players with a rush attempt, and

930
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,080
Speaker 3: then you never know, maybe Drew Locke comes in if

931
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 3: it's a complete blowout. There's other things that could happen.

932
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,240
Speaker 3: Maybe there's a pass, a pass play with a receiver

933
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 3: that you know goes to Ryan he ends up running it.

934
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:41,719
Speaker 3: So there's there's some other things. But I think there's

935
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:43,439
Speaker 3: a really good chance that they get to at least

936
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 3: five and then on the Patriot sideway. I also like

937
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,120
Speaker 3: the over seven and a half. The Patriots could really

938
00:49:49,120 --> 00:49:51,320
Speaker 3: contribute to this as well, because you're gonna have Henderson

939
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 3: Stevenson should get a carry. May is going to have

940
00:49:55,640 --> 00:49:57,879
Speaker 3: a carry. And then they got to get creative too,

941
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 3: so you're you probably will see one of their receivers

942
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:07,440
Speaker 3: with a rush end Drake May. I know they awarded

943
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:09,320
Speaker 3: him the first down, he didn't get it on the sneak.

944
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 3: If the Patriots are smart, they spent the last two

945
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 3: weeks having someone be their their tush push guy, right, Like,

946
00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:19,759
Speaker 3: that's what I would do. Why would you not have

947
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 3: that in your arsenal. So there's a chance that they

948
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 3: have someone that's gonna be maybe a tight end or

949
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:27,680
Speaker 3: someone that's that on a fourth and one might come

950
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:30,680
Speaker 3: in and rush the ball. So I think there's because

951
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 3: of how good these run defenses are, it increases the

952
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 3: chances that you're going to see many more players get

953
00:50:37,640 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 3: an attempt because they have to get super creative. So

954
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:45,920
Speaker 3: we'll go officially over four and a half Seahawks with

955
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:53,319
Speaker 3: a rush attempt plus one point fifteen curious, hey your

956
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 3: thoughts on that and of one other questions, then we'll

957
00:50:54,920 --> 00:50:56,920
Speaker 3: get to our touchdown bet. Yeah.

958
00:50:56,960 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 2: So I think so. The Seahawks, yeah, walk Darnold, definitely

959
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 2: Holdani almost certainly, just because they they've just had a committee.

960
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 2: I think it would have the game would really have

961
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:09,719
Speaker 2: to get out of hand, and even if it did,

962
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:12,560
Speaker 2: I think Halani would get one. And then every game

963
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 2: pretty much since they've got Shaheed, it's Shaheat has gotten

964
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 2: to carry, uh And I think you know the one

965
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:19,800
Speaker 2: he didn't. I think that was when I think JSN

966
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 2: got one in that one. So they're usually gonna give

967
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,399
Speaker 2: a wide receiver one carry, so then you just need

968
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 2: that fifth. But you have multiple outs because you're probably

969
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 2: getting one wide receiver carry anyway, maybe you get two

970
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 2: because like you said, it's usually Shaheeda might be Shheat

971
00:51:32,680 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 2: and jsnuh. Or you could just get that short yardage

972
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:40,399
Speaker 2: barner play, so you could end up with six if

973
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 2: everything goes right. But yeah, I think more more likely

974
00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:46,800
Speaker 2: than not to get the five. And for the Patriots,

975
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 2: you also have like a guy like Westover who plays

976
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:53,319
Speaker 2: full back who hasn't got a carry yet. Maybe maybe

977
00:51:53,360 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 2: in a short yard they just like do a quick

978
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:58,520
Speaker 2: hand to him, so that that's and also Marcus Jones,

979
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:01,839
Speaker 2: but Daniel says, has you know, been there for a while,

980
00:52:01,880 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 2: Marcus Jones been there. They used to use him on

981
00:52:03,640 --> 00:52:06,360
Speaker 2: offense a little bit. Uh, they doesn't look like I

982
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 2: don't think they have this year, but you never know.

983
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 2: It's a super Bowl. So he's another option. I think,

984
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:13,759
Speaker 2: a sneaky one that could get a care So yeah,

985
00:52:13,800 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 2: I like, I like both of those. I think with Seattle,

986
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:18,440
Speaker 2: it really just comes down that you're hoping for either

987
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 2: a second wide receiver to get a carry or or

988
00:52:22,840 --> 00:52:24,440
Speaker 2: to get a short yardage and you're and your good

989
00:52:24,440 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 2: money either way.

990
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, seven and a half plus money was a joke. That

991
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:30,839
Speaker 3: was something. But I like over set and a half two.

992
00:52:32,120 --> 00:52:33,879
Speaker 3: Jalen Milroe, is you gonna be active for the first

993
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:35,640
Speaker 3: time all the year they're gonna play for him?

994
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 2: Probably not, I mean, but I was gonna ask you, like,

995
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:42,880
Speaker 2: what about Elijah Royal? That seems like the more interesting,

996
00:52:42,920 --> 00:52:44,320
Speaker 2: Like I don't think Milroe is gonna be active, just

997
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:46,799
Speaker 2: because like I know what you and I see you're

998
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:50,279
Speaker 2: getting out with the rush. Yeah he's Yeah, I doubt

999
00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 2: I mean, you never know, but I would doubt it.

1000
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 2: But they do have they can't play with the skill

1001
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:59,240
Speaker 2: guys because they have they usually have like Robbie Oops

1002
00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:04,319
Speaker 2: and break Russell active, and then like so those are

1003
00:53:04,360 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 2: both fullbacks technically, like Russell used to be a tight end,

1004
00:53:07,120 --> 00:53:08,400
Speaker 2: now he's not. I don't know. I guess he's just

1005
00:53:08,400 --> 00:53:10,920
Speaker 2: a special teamer. And then like another tight end who

1006
00:53:10,960 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 2: never does anything but block and call her up. So

1007
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:17,759
Speaker 2: I mean, I think Arroyo is really kind of the

1008
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 2: the wild card. I think it's it's interesting to bet

1009
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,719
Speaker 2: Arroyo over is because every game he's been active, he's

1010
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:27,799
Speaker 2: been the number two. So if he's a scratch, you

1011
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 2: would just get your money back. It's unlikely that he

1012
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:32,680
Speaker 2: would be like the number three tight end in in

1013
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 2: this game. Two are inactive, so that's the that's the

1014
00:53:36,480 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 2: active inactive. I'm kind of looking at bench.

1015
00:53:39,600 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 3: Some other questions for you are Stevenson versus Henderson. Henderson props,

1016
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 3: I maybe upside on his props are worth looking at

1017
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:51,640
Speaker 3: because I feel like, you know, you got to throw

1018
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:53,719
Speaker 3: to your running backs. That's what you have to do

1019
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 3: against Seattle, and McDaniels has done that in the past

1020
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 3: a lot in Super Bowls, and I think they need

1021
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:03,400
Speaker 3: his explosiveness and his potential to break one, so they

1022
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:06,240
Speaker 3: got to find ways to get him the ball. Sks

1023
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 3: don't blitz a ton, so I don't think it'd be

1024
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 3: as worried about like the pass protection as much because

1025
00:54:13,480 --> 00:54:16,880
Speaker 3: I know that they trusted Stevenson much more against the Broncos.

1026
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:17,839
Speaker 3: So that's a bit of a bit.

1027
00:54:17,960 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 2: Have you seen Will Campbell block? Yeah?

1028
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 3: No, I agree, but I'm saying, like you, I think

1029
00:54:23,520 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 3: they need to get him on the field and get

1030
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 3: them the ball a couple of times. Did you agree

1031
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 3: with that or are you too worried that he's just I.

1032
00:54:28,920 --> 00:54:31,320
Speaker 2: I agree, but I also felt like that against Houston

1033
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:34,319
Speaker 2: and it didn't happen, and and then like every game

1034
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:41,680
Speaker 2: he's done side rushing, yeah, or receiving too. Maybe, So

1035
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 2: receiving is interesting. I think you like it's a lot

1036
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,920
Speaker 2: lower hanging fruit. But for some reason they just don't

1037
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: really like to use him in the receiving game because

1038
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 2: I think because Stevenson is so good as a blocker

1039
00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:56,400
Speaker 2: that you know, like let's say there's an audible or like,

1040
00:54:56,640 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 2: you know, something like that you can quickly get to Stevenson.

1041
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 2: But my question that to you would be there this

1042
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:06,400
Speaker 2: given that the Seahawks could play for safeties and be

1043
00:55:06,719 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 2: really good at it. And everyone's talking about Okay, you know,

1044
00:55:11,200 --> 00:55:12,839
Speaker 2: you know they're not. They're not. You know they can

1045
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 2: play that against big formations. Like what do you do

1046
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 2: if you're the Patriots, because you you do have like

1047
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 2: Douglas as your fourth receiver, that's it's not I mean

1048
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 2: he's been productive. Do you go two tight end four

1049
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 2: wide or do you go with that six lineman or

1050
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 2: like you just keep going with the full back? Like

1051
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,719
Speaker 2: who who is the skilled guy for the Patriots that

1052
00:55:34,280 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 2: is going to be most involved like or formationally like

1053
00:55:38,400 --> 00:55:39,280
Speaker 2: personnel wise.

1054
00:55:39,360 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 3: Do you think I'm kidding? I think Douglas could be

1055
00:55:44,560 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 3: a sneaky Yeah, have a sneaky game. But yeah, they're

1056
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:52,680
Speaker 3: gonna have to change the formations a lot and get creative.

1057
00:55:52,760 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 3: That's still.

1058
00:55:53,239 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 2: Do you think they go a lot of big like

1059
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:57,400
Speaker 2: like six o linemen because they've been doing that an

1060
00:55:58,600 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 2: yeah right, yes, yeah, yeah that would be good for

1061
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:04,839
Speaker 2: Hendris because then you could go because they've been going

1062
00:56:04,960 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 2: like Stevenson west Over at full back, you could throw

1063
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 2: some wrinkles in there where you just take west Over

1064
00:56:13,120 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 2: off the field. If you don't think there's gonna be

1065
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,520
Speaker 2: a ton of blitzing and not that he's passed bof

1066
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:19,839
Speaker 2: a ton anyway. But and you put like a two

1067
00:56:19,880 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 2: back formation with Henderson and a big guy. So it's like,

1068
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 2: now you have big guys and and like speed in

1069
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 2: the backfield and you're coming at it that way. I

1070
00:56:28,719 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 2: mean that that might be that could be a big rink.

1071
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:32,320
Speaker 2: I mean I could yeah, I could see Henderson getting

1072
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,920
Speaker 2: ten plus touches in this game out of nowhere. But

1073
00:56:35,640 --> 00:56:36,960
Speaker 2: it is zero.

1074
00:56:37,080 --> 00:56:39,359
Speaker 3: So I think, yeah, you want to bet you look

1075
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 3: at the tails, so h and last thing before we

1076
00:56:44,000 --> 00:56:47,239
Speaker 3: give our anytime touchdown bets MVP. Look you kind of

1077
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 3: like js n as, I think Jason is.

1078
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 2: The clear, clear, clear clear value. Like by far, I

1079
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 2: know people are gonna look at the receiver. I was

1080
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 2: on Edelman in the year he would like I was

1081
00:57:00,960 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 2: on cup Theory one too, Like I just think, I.

1082
00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:05,600
Speaker 3: Mean, you just look at his props, like he's getting

1083
00:57:05,640 --> 00:57:09,360
Speaker 3: seven catches, one hundred yards a touchdown, and at the

1084
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 3: page and if they win a low scoring game over

1085
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:14,000
Speaker 3: the past twenty years, it's either a quarterback, a random

1086
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:15,960
Speaker 3: defensive player, or a wide receiver that has like that

1087
00:57:16,040 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: stat line in a lower scoring game.

1088
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:22,480
Speaker 2: And it's like not even beyond just the JSN, Like,

1089
00:57:22,920 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 2: we know he's great, we know he could do that,

1090
00:57:24,880 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 2: but look at it in combination with Donald. Donald's median

1091
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:32,480
Speaker 2: game is like a two thirty yard game one or

1092
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 2: two touchdowns. Gays N's median game is like one hundred

1093
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:39,520
Speaker 2: yard half a right exactly, So who's getting that in

1094
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 2: that Das is the best player on the Fieldho's more

1095
00:57:41,720 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 2: likely to have a highlight gas N, So I think

1096
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:48,520
Speaker 2: he is just a slam dunk play at plus five

1097
00:57:48,520 --> 00:57:51,919
Speaker 2: point fifty, especially when Donald like it's I think that's

1098
00:57:51,920 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 2: going way too hot. It's using the base rate way

1099
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,400
Speaker 2: too strongly. Would like, I know quarterbacks like that is

1100
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:00,880
Speaker 2: that is the base that's the most like, but you

1101
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 2: got to kind of look at all the circumstances here.

1102
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 3: Like Donald's. Also Donald's also a mistake pron so you

1103
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 3: could have like a couple of interceptions too, right, that's case.

1104
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:15,480
Speaker 2: Jason could win it with no touchdowns, like jays could

1105
00:58:15,480 --> 00:58:17,800
Speaker 2: win it with a median receiving game and no touchdowns,

1106
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 2: which is absurd for a wide receiver to say in

1107
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 2: the Super Bowl. And also look at the board, like

1108
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:26,960
Speaker 2: Rashid Shaheed was like top six in the board, Like

1109
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 2: there's like nobody there, like it's it's so wide open.

1110
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:33,880
Speaker 2: After the quarterbacks in JSN that yeah, I think to me,

1111
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 2: JSN like clear, clear, And then I would say Drake

1112
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 2: May number two. You know, if you like the Patriots,

1113
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 2: you're getting you know, decent value on him. But I

1114
00:58:43,600 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 2: think this is one where you kind of go talk

1115
00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 2: because the board is so wide open that it's like

1116
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 2: a lot of the guys up top you can't there,

1117
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 2: you can't really see them winning. And then so now

1118
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:55,600
Speaker 2: you're getting into trying to pick a defensive player, which

1119
00:58:55,760 --> 00:59:00,560
Speaker 2: I mean, good luck with two defensive coaches. It's anyone's

1120
00:59:00,800 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 2: So I just get I just go back to the truck,

1121
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:06,080
Speaker 2: which is j s N, who I love, and then

1122
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:06,640
Speaker 2: Drake May.

1123
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 3: I never really got MVP. They should don't do any

1124
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 3: books have not to twenty books have defensive player win MVP.

1125
00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:20,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, like just like a defensive player, a defensive player

1126
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:23,919
Speaker 2: that is a good I haven't seen it. I would

1127
00:59:23,920 --> 00:59:25,920
Speaker 2: think that would be too much of a liability because

1128
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:30,480
Speaker 2: I mean if you add yeah, I mean yeah you could. Yeah,

1129
00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 2: I haven't seen it.

1130
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 3: But I would like them. I would depending on the price.

1131
00:59:34,200 --> 00:59:37,480
Speaker 3: I would think about it for the Super Bowl, Yeah, definitely,

1132
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:39,400
Speaker 3: But let's get to our anything touchdown.

1133
00:59:39,480 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 2: But okay, let's do it. So now it's time for

1134
00:59:43,800 --> 00:59:48,960
Speaker 2: any time Touchdown Parway presented by DraftKings, Super Bowl sixty

1135
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:51,480
Speaker 2: Stuck Europe First.

1136
00:59:51,480 --> 00:59:56,880
Speaker 3: Where you going, Let's go with Barner. I think that

1137
00:59:57,120 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 3: there's a lot of ways for him to get there.

1138
00:59:59,640 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 3: He could a sneak if they're out the one. You

1139
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 3: know they're not throwing against the Patriots in Super Bowl,

1140
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 3: all the short yardage at the goal line, I think

1141
01:00:06,760 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 3: they're gonna go with a tousch push. It's gonna be

1142
01:00:09,280 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 3: hard to run on the Patriots otherwise. And then the

1143
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 3: Patriots can be vulnerable to tight ends, especially in the

1144
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 3: red zone. Their linebackers and safeties can be got in coverage.

1145
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:22,200
Speaker 3: I think that's the weakest area of their defense. So

1146
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 3: and you know, throughout the season, Darnold has liked to

1147
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:29,680
Speaker 3: target Barner in the red zone. So let's go with

1148
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 3: aj Barner.

1149
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 2: I feel like that is your most used phrase. If

1150
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:36,479
Speaker 2: we just ran the numbers, like vulnerable to tight ends

1151
01:00:36,680 --> 01:00:38,760
Speaker 2: like that, that just got to be your most use

1152
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:42,080
Speaker 2: phrase on this podcast this year. But yeah, I agree.

1153
01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:44,680
Speaker 2: I think that the Toush push really adds a big

1154
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 2: layer because point seven percent of the Patriots touchdown rate

1155
01:00:48,480 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 2: allowed to running backs. With Williams in the middle there,

1156
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:54,320
Speaker 2: that means Kenneth Walker probably a good bet for no,

1157
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have that. I'm gonna have that Bett as well. Yeah,

1158
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:01,680
Speaker 2: plus one fifty of them. But for my official play

1159
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:07,240
Speaker 2: Jackson Smith and Jigba minus one ten to me. Again,

1160
01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:11,480
Speaker 2: I look at this game. I know the Patriots are excellent.

1161
01:01:11,880 --> 01:01:17,200
Speaker 2: We coached defensively with Vrabel. I know they have Christian Gonzales.

1162
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:19,439
Speaker 2: But when I look at this game, I say, who

1163
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:22,160
Speaker 2: is the best player on the field to meet us? JSN.

1164
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:26,120
Speaker 2: If there's any receiver in this league that can beat Gonzales,

1165
01:01:26,800 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 2: it's JSN. Gonzales has been targeted one hundred and one

1166
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:34,640
Speaker 2: times most of any New England defender. The targets perrout

1167
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:37,560
Speaker 2: run highest in the New England secondary amongst the regulars.

1168
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 2: SO and Jaysn scored in just over half of his games.

1169
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 2: And now you're talking about you know, Max snaps. Max,

1170
01:01:46,280 --> 01:01:47,960
Speaker 2: you know you're not probably not coming out of the

1171
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 2: game no matter what. And you have a Patriots rundy

1172
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:55,520
Speaker 2: that just does not give up scores one point a

1173
01:01:55,520 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 2: touchdown rate of one percent versus five percent with Milton

1174
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 2: Williams is hon or. All of the LEA averages around

1175
01:02:01,480 --> 01:02:04,080
Speaker 2: three three and a half. So I think the scores

1176
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 2: are gonna have to come either through the air of

1177
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:07,960
Speaker 2: maybe like a Barner toushblot. So yeah, give me Jasn,

1178
01:02:08,960 --> 01:02:13,280
Speaker 2: you got Barner, you parlay those two together at DraftKings,

1179
01:02:13,320 --> 01:02:17,040
Speaker 2: you get a six to one payout, And yeah, I

1180
01:02:17,120 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 2: think these are the two most likely guys on Seattle

1181
01:02:19,960 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 2: to score. And I wouldn't even mind adding some Kennis

1182
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:26,480
Speaker 2: Walker no to that. But for the official parlay, we're

1183
01:02:26,520 --> 01:02:30,520
Speaker 2: going Barner plus two forty JSN minus one ten plus

1184
01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:35,040
Speaker 2: six hundred. That is our Super Bowl sixty anytime Touchdown

1185
01:02:35,040 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 2: parlay presented by DraftKings.

1186
01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:40,840
Speaker 3: One last thing for me out of a final score production.

1187
01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 2: Seattle twenty three, better.

1188
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 3: Gone under twenty five and a half.

1189
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 2: New England twelve.

1190
01:02:49,840 --> 01:02:56,920
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go Seattle twenty, New England sixteen.

1191
01:02:57,720 --> 01:03:00,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I could see that. I think New England definitely

1192
01:03:01,160 --> 01:03:03,479
Speaker 2: gonna be in that. I'd be surprised New England gets

1193
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 2: to twenty. Maybe maybe I should look at their team

1194
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 2: total under as well, But yeah, I think it's gonna

1195
01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:09,480
Speaker 2: be a lower scoring game. I think the total is

1196
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:12,480
Speaker 2: a bit high. Turnovers could flip it. Special teams could

1197
01:03:12,480 --> 01:03:18,240
Speaker 2: flip it. But yeah, exactly, But I mean great Earstuck.

1198
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:25,000
Speaker 2: Appreciate everybody out there for listening. It's been a just

1199
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:27,560
Speaker 2: a great experience here to to do this with you guys,

1200
01:03:27,600 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 2: and of course out to our sponsor, DraftKings. If you

1201
01:03:30,680 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 2: want to tell the bets we discussed today again, you

1202
01:03:32,720 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 2: can find a quick flip wings in the video and

1203
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:37,919
Speaker 2: podcast descriptions of visit Action Network dot com slash bet

1204
01:03:37,960 --> 01:03:41,800
Speaker 2: now check out that playbook on x stuck anything. Any

1205
01:03:41,840 --> 01:03:43,200
Speaker 2: last words before we get out of.

1206
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:47,720
Speaker 3: Here, No, enjoy the game. Don't get you know, don't

1207
01:03:47,760 --> 01:03:52,760
Speaker 3: get sucked into betting a ton of like the crazy

1208
01:03:52,760 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 3: things to happen. Usually there's no guy like safety and

1209
01:03:57,000 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 3: you know, an octopus. All those odds kick return to

1210
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:03,320
Speaker 3: all those odds are so terrible. But check out all

1211
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:08,000
Speaker 3: of our content. We're that show tomorrow, all the prop

1212
01:04:08,000 --> 01:04:10,320
Speaker 3: shows you guys have done. There's so much good info

1213
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 3: in those. But enjoy the game. Thank you for thank

1214
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:18,120
Speaker 3: you to you for all of your work this year.

1215
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 3: Thank you to our producers who are incredible and then

1216
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:24,680
Speaker 3: most boily thanks to everyone for tuning in, listening, following along.

1217
01:04:24,720 --> 01:04:26,800
Speaker 3: It's been a lot of fun. Let's close the year

1218
01:04:26,800 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 3: out strong and can't wait to do it again next year.

1219
01:04:30,720 --> 01:04:33,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're a shout out to Gift, shout to d Payne,

1220
01:04:33,640 --> 01:04:38,680
Speaker 2: shout out to Eddie love y'all, and yeah, thank you Stuck.

1221
01:04:38,720 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 2: I mean, you were just amazing this year. A great

1222
01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:44,120
Speaker 2: year for you as well. Just on it from week

1223
01:04:44,160 --> 01:04:47,360
Speaker 2: one right through. So hopefully we can close it out

1224
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 2: strong and you can find Stuck on X at Stucky two,

1225
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:53,160
Speaker 2: I at Chris Raybond. We're at those same handles on

1226
01:04:53,200 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 2: the free award winning Actually Network app Go download if

1227
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 2: you haven't already. Be sure to follow Partway Express as

1228
01:05:00,040 --> 01:05:05,200
Speaker 2: well on the Action after some long Shots and get

1229
01:05:05,240 --> 01:05:07,080
Speaker 2: action from until next season.

1230
01:05:07,600 --> 01:05:09,080
Speaker 3: Just get this money no Go.

1231
01:05:24,840 --> 01:05:29,360
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1232
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,200
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1233
01:05:32,240 --> 01:05:35,320
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler