WEBVTT - The Junta’s Sham Elections and a Myanmar Update 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:08.720 Everyone. It's just me today, James again, and I'm talking 0:00:08.720 --> 0:00:11.520 today with my friend Billy Billy Ford. Billy is a 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:14.120 program officer for the Burma team at the United States 0:00:14.120 --> 0:00:18.720 Institute of Peace. And do you want to say hello, Billy, James, 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:22.080 thanks for joining it. Yeah, thanks for joining us. Without 0:00:22.079 --> 0:00:26.480 a decent introduction, have I summed up what you don't 0:00:26.480 --> 0:00:28.920 want to get that wrong? So people will have heard 0:00:28.920 --> 0:00:32.360 Billy before and or heard from Billy when we finished 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:35.120 our last series on them, where we spoke about the 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:38.120 funding that the PDFs are using and how they're using 0:00:38.159 --> 0:00:41.959 a lot of unique and really innovative methods to continue 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:44.720 to support their revolution when they're not getting very much 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:46.960 at all in the way of international support, and certainly 0:00:47.159 --> 0:00:51.320 nothing compared to countries like Ukraine. But what we wanted 0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:53.840 to talk a little bit about today was the s 0:00:53.920 --> 0:00:57.120 a C or the Hunter's attempts at kind of staging 0:00:57.120 --> 0:01:00.400 a sham election, which they've sort of back off on. 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:03.120 Can you explain a little bit about what they had 0:01:03.160 --> 0:01:08.880 proposed and then what they maybe what they're doing now, right? Yeah. Um, 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:14.120 So the expectation was upon UM instigating the coup February 0:01:15.680 --> 0:01:23.400 that UM the state of emergency would end on UM February, 0:01:23.640 --> 0:01:26.600 which was two days ago, UM, giving them six months 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:32.120 after that, uh, that period to kind of undertake an election. 0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:37.039 And so the expectation was that before August one, there 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:41.920 would be this sort of sham electoral process UM, and 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:45.600 the the Hunter would essentially structure of the process in 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:49.200 such a way that they they're there, their political party, 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:54.560 the U s DP, would prevail, UM, and that the 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:59.680 Commander in Chief men online who runs the HUNTA would 0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:02.400 and as he had dreamed to become the president of 0:02:02.440 --> 0:02:05.760 the country and kind of rule in a military dictatorship model, 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:10.040 but under kind of these auspices of civilian governance. So 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:13.000 that was the expectation. But things have changed, as you 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:16.600 kind of alluded to. Yeah, so they've they've said they've 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:18.960 got to extend for another six months. Who's that right, 0:02:19.320 --> 0:02:21.600 that's right? UM, So they said they would extend for 0:02:21.639 --> 0:02:25.280 another six months until August first. But then this morning 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:29.840 they also announced a new political, Economic, and Social objectives 0:02:29.880 --> 0:02:34.600 which includes a five point road map UM, which, for 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:36.280 those of you who have been following m R for 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:38.840 some time, is often the way that they frame their 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:44.880 UM kind of sham and circuitous approaches to civilian governance. UM. 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:50.160 But UM that articulates a series of reforms, restoring law 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:55.120 and order, you know, social development, implementing a peace process, 0:02:55.120 --> 0:03:00.560 and then holding elections UM. And this is I think 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:04.840 indicates to most people that elections are very unlikely to 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:08.760 occur any time in the near future. UM. They did 0:03:08.800 --> 0:03:12.240 something almost identical in two thousand and four articulating a 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:18.000 roadmap to democracy, and that didn't really start until two 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:22.040 thousand and ten, UM, where when there were elections and 0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:25.320 there weren't really meaningful ones until UM. This is kind 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:27.919 of an indication to I think a lot of folks 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:33.400 that UM elections are unlikely this year and that there's 0:03:33.520 --> 0:03:36.880 kind of a long road ahead. UH. The interesting element 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:40.200 of this will be to see how the the hunta's 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:45.480 kind of enablers in the international community, including Thailand, China, 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:48.800 and India in particular, how they will respond, in part 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:53.600 because they were pushing the sac very hard to undertake 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.280 these elections as a potential off ramp to the horrifying 0:03:57.320 --> 0:04:01.680 violence that is UM that resulted from the coup and UM, 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:04.280 you know, all the atrocities that the SEC has committed. 0:04:04.680 --> 0:04:07.160 Maybe we could talk a little bit about the international 0:04:07.240 --> 0:04:10.760 support they have because it's still quite significant, and like 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:15.080 especially in terms of propping up their military force through 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.400 the use of air power they can and they don't 0:04:18.400 --> 0:04:22.680 have domestic like fighting yet manufacturing, right, So can you 0:04:22.680 --> 0:04:24.159 talk a little bit about that, Like I think they 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:28.080 received a couple more planes very recently, right, Yeah, from 0:04:28.400 --> 0:04:32.640 UM the Chinese. UM. Yeah. There it's kind of an 0:04:32.640 --> 0:04:36.720 interesting dynamic whereby you have a an entire country of 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:40.840 fifty three ish million people UM fighting against a tiny 0:04:40.960 --> 0:04:45.119 military institution of about five or fewer if you include 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:48.720 their families and all the medics UM. And that tiny 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.400 institution is being supported by just a handful of countries UM. 0:04:52.440 --> 0:04:55.680 As I said, kind of China, Russia, UH to a 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:59.280 certain agree, Indian and Thailand, UM, and a few others UM. 0:04:59.320 --> 0:05:01.040 And the vast mo jority of the world is kind 0:05:01.080 --> 0:05:05.240 of opposes this military takeover and the subsequent dictatorship and 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:09.160 all the her indos atrocities that they've committed. UM. And 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:12.320 so there's quite a lot of international actors who are 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:18.040 providing kind of UM rhetorical support to the resistance and 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:21.719 some you know, support to civil society and humanitarian assistance 0:05:21.720 --> 0:05:26.240 and others. But you know, on balance the support that 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:30.400 the Chinese, Indians Russians in particular UM have provided in 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:34.440 terms of material assistance to the s A c UM 0:05:34.480 --> 0:05:37.920 as well as the diplomatic assistance that the Chinese provide 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:41.000 at the Security Council in particular, but also the Ties 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:46.440 provide UM with an ascion is you know for outweighs 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:49.520 the rhetorical and small material assistance at the West and 0:05:50.240 --> 0:05:53.200 UM you know other supporters of the resistance movements have 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:57.479 provided UM so yes, to answer your question, the you know, 0:05:57.520 --> 0:06:01.760 the Chinese and Indians continue to provide material military assistance 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:05.640 to the s A c UM. And you know, my 0:06:05.800 --> 0:06:10.200 question is kind of what is there theory of change 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:15.360 here and how will UM supporting the SAC militarily lead 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:19.440 to anything like stabilization. It's just kind of perplexing to 0:06:19.480 --> 0:06:23.640 me when both countries are very UM interested in in 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:27.240 in supporting US a level of functional stability so they 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:31.680 can undertake their economic and geopolitical objectives UM, many of 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:34.480 which go through my Mr UM. I just don't really 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:37.720 understand how they see kind of a military victory bry 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:40.440 the s A c as a pathway to stabilization when 0:06:40.440 --> 0:06:43.480 you have an entire nation that has risen up against 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:49.839 UH the dictatorship and has wholly rejected it and demonstrated 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:53.640 that they're willing to make the these incredible sacrifices to 0:06:54.080 --> 0:06:58.440 UM to ensure that this coup does not succeed. Yeah, 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:00.880 it is. It's very perfecting because like it's not in 0:07:01.520 --> 0:07:05.440 in any sort of conventional sense like a consolidated regime 0:07:05.560 --> 0:07:08.440 and no show any chance of being one. Right, Like, 0:07:08.480 --> 0:07:11.920 it doesn't even have territorial control of a large sways 0:07:12.000 --> 0:07:15.000 of the country that they claims. Yeah, exactly, and you're 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:17.960 you're even hearing this. I mean, there's been quite a 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:21.800 bit of research, contested research that that shows the HUNTA 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:25.640 has less than fifty control. But even today you are differ. 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:28.800 Yesterday you heard from an online the the hunter leader 0:07:29.240 --> 0:07:33.040 UM that he's now admitting that they UM only have 0:07:33.240 --> 0:07:36.760 sixty percent control, which is a pretty sangular analysis of 0:07:36.800 --> 0:07:39.480 what they control. UM, it's probably much smaller than that. 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:42.880 But you know, them demonstrating that they do not have 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:47.160 UM control over forty of the country as a pretty 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:53.560 staggering proposition and kind of indication to their allies that UM, 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:57.320 you know, they just don't have the capacity to administer 0:07:57.440 --> 0:08:01.800 a country that's unwilling to be pacified and um so 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:05.040 and and you know, on top of that, there's very 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.760 little I just don't see a pathway in which they 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:12.400 will capture more territory. Um. I mean they have, you know, 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:16.920 constrained resources. Um they have. I think they had twenty 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.520 two entrants into the Defense Service Academy last year. I 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.720 mean there's when they when there's casualties on the front lines, 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.920 you just there's not a lot of replacement happening. Um, 0:08:26.960 --> 0:08:29.720 They're not able to get spare parts for their Russian 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:33.720 made helicopters. You know, there's just major material constraints that 0:08:33.880 --> 0:08:36.120 the S a c. S. Military is facing, and it's 0:08:36.160 --> 0:08:39.560 just hard to imagine that they will ever regain much 0:08:39.600 --> 0:08:45.240 more than you know, what they say is territorial control. Yeah, 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:47.079 it's it's very if. Then if we look at the 0:08:47.120 --> 0:08:50.040 PDF by comparison, and I got banned from Twitter last 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:55.920 week for posting a picture of them, but their equipment 0:08:56.080 --> 0:09:00.040 compared to even a year ago, is vastly improved. I 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:02.800 don't know if you saw the one group of guys 0:09:02.840 --> 0:09:05.760 with it actually international rifle, but I have no idea 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:08.360 where that came from, but it it's very impressive that 0:09:08.400 --> 0:09:12.520 they have one. Yeah, yeah, it's kind of um Honestly, 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:16.640 the resilience of this movement is partly a testament to 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:20.760 the ingenuity and innovation UM. I mean, we saw it 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:24.160 in the beginning in the non violent action, demonstrating or 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:26.680 kind of deploying tactics that we've never seen before that 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:30.160 have you know, been lessons to other international non violent 0:09:30.280 --> 0:09:33.240 movements around the world. Just really creative fundraising tactics, as 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:35.480 you and I have discussed in the past. But yeah, 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:41.680 now it's the military ingenuity. I mean, essentially creating UM 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:48.559 facilities for retrofitting drones for aerial attacks. UM. One of 0:09:48.600 --> 0:09:52.559 the military's helicopters was taken down this morning. I haven't 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:56.000 I don't know exactly what weapons were used in that, 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:58.320 but you know, it's just kind of a level of 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:03.640 innovation given uh, these you know, the PDFs and most 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:07.520 of the eras have have very little access to very 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:12.480 few kind of international um, you know, arms markets. So 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:15.920 the fact that they're able to sustain themselves at all 0:10:16.040 --> 0:10:19.199 and maintain this, you know, which is probably much more 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.520 of the territory is is kind of an incredible testament 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:25.960 to their innovation and ingenuity. Yeah, it's like there's a 0:10:26.000 --> 0:10:29.240 couple obviously of several PDF fighters who I keep in 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:32.280 touch with, and like they they have spoken to me 0:10:32.360 --> 0:10:34.480 about like first or three D printed guns, which we've 0:10:34.480 --> 0:10:39.400 spoken about extentively, but also torna CA's night vision goggles, 0:10:39.440 --> 0:10:44.320 even process like like limbs people who have lost legs, 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.520 right to land minds and things. So like, it's amazing 0:10:47.520 --> 0:10:49.679 that they've set up all these things which normally require 0:10:49.720 --> 0:10:52.920 like a massive interaction with the state and with an 0:10:52.960 --> 0:10:55.760 international system, and they've done it using in this case, 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:57.880 the Internet and a three hundred dollar printer. They've got 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:02.000 an early Express or something. Yeah, it's incredible. Yeah, it's 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:05.720 it's extremely sort of inspiration on that sense, but also 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:08.160 very sad. Like I want to talk a little bit 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:11.520 about the the s a C seems to have. It's 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:13.640 not fair to say they've pivoted to war crimes, because 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:15.400 it's been kind of integral to what they've done from 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.640 the outset, but they seem to have given up on 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:23.079 trying to make like targeted strikes against the military formations 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:27.200 and just pivoted to dropping bombs on civilians. Could you 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:29.280 talk about a couple of those, like maybe we could 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:34.080 talk about the Kitchen Music cultural festival they bombed, or 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.800 well one of the other examples of that. Yeah, there's 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:42.079 definitely been a shift from UM a strategy of essentially 0:11:42.880 --> 0:11:48.400 augmenting UM or providing air support to UH kind of 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:54.520 exposed frontline light infantry, to a tactic of targeted air 0:11:54.520 --> 0:12:01.760 strikes against civilian targets and against UM or organization headquarters 0:12:02.360 --> 0:12:07.800 which had UM under previous UM negotiation has been deemed 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:10.959 like off limits, but UM it seems as if there's 0:12:11.000 --> 0:12:15.920 nothing off limits now. They bombed UM the Chin National 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:19.760 Front's headquarters which is right on the India Chin border 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:23.880 UM on the western part of the mr UM and 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:28.080 there's pretty reliable accounts that there were UM there were 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:31.760 bombs that landed in Indian territory. UM. I mean, as 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:35.319 you reference, they there was a bombing in um, a 0:12:35.440 --> 0:12:38.840 Chin state on a on a festival, killing at least 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:45.120 sixty civilians. They've done something similar on UM UH ethnic 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:50.920 Armed Organization headquarters in the southeastern Karan territories, including the 0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:54.640 our acount of armies facilities in those areas. So there 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:59.920 has been a shift in tactic to UM targeting headquarters 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.000 facilities in that sense and as you said, kind of 0:13:03.040 --> 0:13:07.000 civilian targets to I don't know, you know, this is 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:11.000 just the modus operandi of an institution that is devoid 0:13:11.040 --> 0:13:16.319 of humanity and um, so alienated from society that they 0:13:16.600 --> 0:13:19.920 you know, they're they're willing to go to any ends 0:13:20.000 --> 0:13:22.920 to kind of protect themselves and their control of power. 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:26.720 I think, particularly now that they've seen that the public 0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:31.400 is against them, and um probably quite concerned that if 0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:34.440 they are unsuccessful in this military endeavor that they will 0:13:34.520 --> 0:13:38.240 be kind of strung up, you know. So it's um yeah, 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:40.760 I think it's kind of a sign of desperation and 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:53.520 as you mentioned, kind of a tactical shifty. Maybe we 0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:57.240 should explain the sort of four cut strategy, which has 0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:00.240 been a long term strategy even before the coupe of 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.440 the military, and what that means and how that sort 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.960 of provide I guess I didn't like a moral framework, 0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:08.560 maybe a certain weight that you know that it's it's 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.240 not like they started doing this ship in February one, 0:14:12.200 --> 0:14:13.720 right like that, this is what this is how they 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.640 do stuff. I mean, this is an institution that's been 0:14:16.640 --> 0:14:21.320 at war with its own people for seventy years. Um yeah, 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:26.960 I mean, the there is an underlying philosophy of them, 0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:31.359 our military that that that they essentially are the protectors 0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:34.400 of national sovereignty and to a certain degree of protectors 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:38.320 of the Bamar ethnic group and Bomar Buddhism in particular. 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:42.800 And UM, this is a deeply in trance philosophy within 0:14:42.960 --> 0:14:49.960 the UM military establishment, and UM it's been to a 0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:55.600 certain degree a fairly compelling narrative for retention and institutional solidarity, 0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:58.120 which is why in some part, I mean, it's one 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:00.240 of the reasons there are a number why this the 0:15:00.400 --> 0:15:03.520 s A C. And the sit that memory military is 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:09.720 has been resilient to UM collapse despite you know, being 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:14.800 extremely incompetent and UM very isolated UM and virtually never 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.320 having one a war, despite being at war for seventy 0:15:17.440 --> 0:15:21.720 years and having structural and military manages UM. And so 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:25.400 this is kind of underlying the justification and the moral 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:30.600 philosophy of this institution that is morally UM corrupted. But 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:35.120 as you said, their UM tactical strategy is essentially one 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:42.000 of social isolation, division UM and ensuring as much human 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:47.200 suffering as possible so as to UM pacify a population 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:51.360 into submission. And so essentially the strategy is to kind 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:56.280 of cut communications and food supply and um uh connections 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:59.000 between communities and these sorts of things, which is um 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.520 we're For a very long time, the military strategy has 0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:05.560 been one of divide and conquer, in which they've um 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:11.200 attempted to exacerbate divisions between ethnic and religious minority communities 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.280 to ensure that they would not face a united front. 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:19.120 And so the incredible challenge and opportunity of the current 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:23.680 resistance movement is one in which the MIAM or military 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:27.640 is no longer at the table in conversations with one another, 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.840 um and they are trying to build cohesion with one another. 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:36.640 And frankly, this is where there's unbelievable progress that I 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:42.320 don't think gets enough attention and appreciation that there's meaningful 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:46.720 changes in behavior in terms of the Bomar majority ethnic communities, 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:52.240 posture towards ethnic and religious minorities, and you know, communication 0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:58.200 and coordination across UM institutions that had historically been at 0:16:58.200 --> 0:17:00.920 odds and happy to go more into that, but yeah, 0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:04.680 the strategy of dividing conqueror is really front and center. Yeah, 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.960 and ironically, by pushing that so high that they've they've 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:10.720 done the complete opposite, which is forced people to form 0:17:10.800 --> 0:17:13.560 like a popular front against him. Yeah, let's talk about that, 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:16.720 because I find it really fascinating, how like even how 0:17:16.840 --> 0:17:19.080 like E A O s and PDFs are kind of 0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:23.680 vaguely underneath a unified command at this point. And again, 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:26.720 let's talk about how those barriers which you doceted for 0:17:26.760 --> 0:17:30.440 so long a sort of gradually breaking down now, yeah, rapidly. 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.679 I guess one of the ways in which there's been 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:36.359 a meaningful shift has been just kind of the individual 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:42.000 experiences of the military's atrocities. I mean, um, I think 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:47.480 in your previous episode with Conchomo, he had indicated that, uh, 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:51.160 you know, public perception of Rohena has shifted somewhat, although 0:17:51.160 --> 0:17:53.399 it's kind of questionable whether it's a durable shift and 0:17:53.440 --> 0:17:56.119 whether it's meaningful and all that. But um, he had 0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:58.600 attributed that shift in part to the fact that the 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:02.639 Bomar majority Buddhist population is now experiencing frankly, some of 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:07.800 the forms of atrocity that the Rohenja had experienced, you know, 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.920 in the seventies and the nineties and then in seventeen 0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:14.880 um when things escalated to genocide. So I think this 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.600 is One of the shifts is that the in the 0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:21.080 Burmese heartland, in the area where the military recruits most 0:18:21.160 --> 0:18:25.440 of its soldiers, UM, they are undertaking the most arguably 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:31.080 the most um extreme atrocities, burning villages to the ground, um, 0:18:31.119 --> 0:18:33.520 you know, just horrendous stuff that like I don't even 0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:36.439 want to say on the air, but just um, you know, 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:40.199 just an incredible campaign of terror. Um. In part because 0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:44.960 the people's defense forces and the resistance forces are are 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:48.880 extremely strong there and only strengthening in response to these atrocities. 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:50.919 So I think that's one of the dynamics is that 0:18:51.000 --> 0:18:55.160 there's um, there's been a shift in perception because of um, 0:18:55.240 --> 0:18:59.000 because of the Hunter's behavior. Another is that, frankly, there's 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.080 just a man of political shift at play. I mean, 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:05.520 you have you know, February one, the National League, like 0:19:05.840 --> 0:19:09.120 Nationally for Democracy led government is deposed and they don't 0:19:09.160 --> 0:19:12.879 necessarily have arms or an experience of military combat, whereas 0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:16.359 the ethnic armed organizations have been fighting for seventy years 0:19:16.359 --> 0:19:20.119 against the central government, including the National League for Democracy 0:19:20.240 --> 0:19:23.440 led government. And so there is a shift in power 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:26.680 at that moment um that you know, shift power from 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:30.159 the Bamar center to ethnic minority communities in a in 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:33.720 a particular way. So UM, that kind of open space 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:38.560 for greater humility and greater dialogue and UM, you know, 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:42.560 willingness to make concessions to ethnic and religious inn arty communities. UM, 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:46.080 and that isn't there's actually been tremendous progress there. So 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:49.919 there's the National Unity Consultative Council, which is, you know, 0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:53.480 probably the most important dialogue platform, but one one that 0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:58.639 is very focused on big picture governance challenges UM and 0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:03.200 long term kind of national dialogue processes. But UM, there's 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:06.280 been some good progress there. But frankly, the most progress 0:20:06.359 --> 0:20:11.640 has been made in UM military and governance coordination platforms. 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:15.600 So this includes the C three C, which is essentially 0:20:15.680 --> 0:20:19.680 a commanded control platform that's between the National Unity government 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:24.840 and ethnic armed organization leadership where they're coordinating military strategy 0:20:24.960 --> 0:20:29.000 and tactics. So that and there's been considerable trust building 0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:33.439 through those sorts of operations. And similarly, there's been trust 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:38.679 building in you know, basic things like coordinating humanitarian assistance 0:20:39.119 --> 0:20:43.439 or UM local administration or policing these sorts of things. 0:20:44.000 --> 0:20:47.280 UM where there's um, you know, there's a problem that's 0:20:47.320 --> 0:20:49.359 needed to be solved in the near term and we 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:52.439 can come together to solve it collaboratively and in that 0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:55.719 process sort of build understanding and trust with one another. 0:20:55.840 --> 0:21:00.080 So UM, there's been really meaningful differences I've seen in 0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:05.359 terms of cohesion across traditional lines of intercommunal division. UM. 0:21:05.359 --> 0:21:07.679 Obviously a long way to go, but this is a 0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:10.480 lot of what what we're working on at the US 0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:13.119 and Student Peace and UM that the U. S. Government 0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:16.720 is supporting is trying to support the resistance capacity to 0:21:16.840 --> 0:21:20.280 chart a viable pathway to stabilization, and a lot of 0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:26.200 that relies upon building cohesion and trust among resistance groups. Yeah. 0:21:26.359 --> 0:21:29.920 Everyone I spoke to Neibly, not everyone I spoke to 0:21:30.000 --> 0:21:33.639 is Mama, some people with Karen UM and some of 0:21:33.640 --> 0:21:35.480 them were some of the people we've spoken to, like 0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:39.760 remotely or Ranger. UM. All of them said that what 0:21:40.520 --> 0:21:43.879 has to come out of this is like a federalized democracy. 0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:46.800 Do you think that that's that's likely? And what does 0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.439 that look like in the country it's spent war with 0:21:49.480 --> 0:21:53.040 itself for most of the last century. Yeah, I mean, 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:56.280 clearly this is a question that needs to be answered 0:21:56.320 --> 0:22:00.600 by them people. UM. And I think the National Unity 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.240 Consultative Council is a good platform for having this discussion. 0:22:03.720 --> 0:22:05.679 But there is a number of free requisits for for 0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:07.880 having that discussion is and one of them is kind 0:22:07.880 --> 0:22:13.440 of new norms of dialogue based on trust and mutual 0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:19.680 um respect. But yeah, I think that um, the only 0:22:19.800 --> 0:22:25.360 viable pathway to stability is you know, is one that 0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:30.159 results in a federal democratic system in which subnational federal 0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:33.879 units have a degree of autonomy, UM, and in which 0:22:33.920 --> 0:22:38.800 there is a baseline of equality. UM, there's rule of law, 0:22:39.000 --> 0:22:43.480 independent judiciary, UM. You know, just the basic fundamentals that 0:22:43.840 --> 0:22:49.360 ensure protections of minority populations. UM. You know. Another challenge 0:22:49.400 --> 0:22:53.240 being that even you know, within states like Kachin State, 0:22:53.320 --> 0:22:55.960 where you know, the Kachin at the community is an 0:22:55.960 --> 0:22:58.680 ethnic minority at the national level, but there are also 0:22:59.119 --> 0:23:02.920 subminaries that you know, like the Shawnee population, and and 0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:05.880 there's concerns that you know, there may um, there needs 0:23:05.880 --> 0:23:08.160 to be protections for the minorities within the minority state. 0:23:08.200 --> 0:23:10.000 So you know, all of these things need to be 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:12.359 sort of worked out. And this is of course, like 0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:16.360 a maybe a decade long national dialogue process that will 0:23:16.440 --> 0:23:20.320 ultimately culminate in a new federal governance structure, a new 0:23:20.840 --> 0:23:24.959 security structure that you know, maybe doesn't have a federal 0:23:25.080 --> 0:23:28.359 you know, a union level military with the level of 0:23:28.400 --> 0:23:32.000 autonomy or political involvement that you know has played this 0:23:32.040 --> 0:23:35.080 country for so long. But this is really like the 0:23:35.160 --> 0:23:38.199 key to long term peace and stability in the country. 0:23:38.240 --> 0:23:42.200 And frankly, like it felt a long way off under 0:23:42.240 --> 0:23:45.560 the NLD administration. I mean, they were making a lot 0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:48.040 of progress in a lot of ways, but you know, 0:23:48.359 --> 0:23:52.719 building a just and inequitable governance structure in which ethnic 0:23:52.720 --> 0:23:56.240 and religious minorities had a voice and didn't feel oppressed 0:23:56.280 --> 0:24:00.639 by the dominant Bmar Budhist population um Avranfully it was, 0:24:01.040 --> 0:24:03.440 it was quite all ways off. And this, you know, 0:24:03.560 --> 0:24:07.080 as horrible as the cure has been, it is definitely 0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:09.640 a shock to the system that may open up new 0:24:09.680 --> 0:24:14.160 pathways for dialogue, um, new opportunities for trust building, and 0:24:14.520 --> 0:24:17.600 you know, the opportunity to you know, think about a 0:24:17.640 --> 0:24:20.440 new model of governance that is you know, more just 0:24:20.680 --> 0:24:23.600 more equitable and more inclusive. Yeah, it's definitely brought in 0:24:23.640 --> 0:24:26.840 a whole generation of younger people who like aren't sort 0:24:26.840 --> 0:24:29.320 of who didn't come through the institutions that created the 0:24:29.320 --> 0:24:31.360 old regime and just came at this it's like I'm 0:24:31.400 --> 0:24:34.879 seventeen and I'm bucking angry and like I'm going to 0:24:35.000 --> 0:24:38.440 make this better sort of however I can. And yeah, 0:24:38.480 --> 0:24:43.880 they're they're really, I mean obviously very inspirational and then 0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:47.359 fascinated to talk to. I wonder, like, how do you 0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:51.960 see the end to this conflict? Because we're still a 0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:56.360 long way from either side having an definitive military victory. Right, Certainly, 0:24:56.800 --> 0:24:59.280 all these big cities are still more or less controlled 0:24:59.280 --> 0:25:02.040 by the Hunter and that's there's not an immediate way 0:25:02.080 --> 0:25:04.480 that I can foresee them not being that way. So 0:25:05.080 --> 0:25:06.800 if I could ask you to like speculate a little 0:25:06.840 --> 0:25:09.439 bit or look at the way things are going, how 0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:11.200 do we get out of the situation where the Hunters 0:25:11.240 --> 0:25:17.360 bombing schools and music concerts and right, um m hmm, 0:25:17.840 --> 0:25:20.720 it's yeah. This is honestly, like I think everyone is 0:25:20.800 --> 0:25:25.240 kind of lost, um in our attempts to make predictions 0:25:25.280 --> 0:25:31.199 of where this is going. Um, Honestly, I don't know 0:25:31.400 --> 0:25:34.439 that there is a path to a military victory for 0:25:35.400 --> 0:25:39.800 either side here. Um, I mean, it seems pretty unlikely 0:25:39.840 --> 0:25:43.639 that you'll SEEPDS marching on nepied on capturing the Ministry 0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:48.520