1 00:00:05,120 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Everyone. It's just me today, James again, and I'm talking 2 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: today with my friend Billy Billy Ford. Billy is a 3 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: program officer for the Burma team at the United States 4 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: Institute of Peace. And do you want to say hello, Billy, James, 5 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,080 Speaker 1: thanks for joining it. Yeah, thanks for joining us. Without 6 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 1: a decent introduction, have I summed up what you don't 7 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: want to get that wrong? So people will have heard 8 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: Billy before and or heard from Billy when we finished 9 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: our last series on them, where we spoke about the 10 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:38,120 Speaker 1: funding that the PDFs are using and how they're using 11 00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:41,959 Speaker 1: a lot of unique and really innovative methods to continue 12 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 1: to support their revolution when they're not getting very much 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,960 Speaker 1: at all in the way of international support, and certainly 14 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:51,320 Speaker 1: nothing compared to countries like Ukraine. But what we wanted 15 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,840 Speaker 1: to talk a little bit about today was the s 16 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: a C or the Hunter's attempts at kind of staging 17 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: a sham election, which they've sort of back off on. 18 00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: Can you explain a little bit about what they had 19 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 1: proposed and then what they maybe what they're doing now, right? Yeah. Um, 20 00:01:09,000 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: So the expectation was upon UM instigating the coup February 21 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 1: that UM the state of emergency would end on UM February, 22 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: which was two days ago, UM, giving them six months 23 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: after that, uh, that period to kind of undertake an election. 24 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:37,039 Speaker 1: And so the expectation was that before August one, there 25 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 1: would be this sort of sham electoral process UM, and 26 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: the the Hunter would essentially structure of the process in 27 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 1: such a way that they they're there, their political party, 28 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 1: the U s DP, would prevail, UM, and that the 29 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: Commander in Chief men online who runs the HUNTA would 30 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: and as he had dreamed to become the president of 31 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: the country and kind of rule in a military dictatorship model, 32 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: but under kind of these auspices of civilian governance. So 33 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: that was the expectation. But things have changed, as you 34 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: kind of alluded to. Yeah, so they've they've said they've 35 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:18,960 Speaker 1: got to extend for another six months. Who's that right, 36 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 1: that's right? UM, So they said they would extend for 37 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: another six months until August first. But then this morning 38 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 1: they also announced a new political, Economic, and Social objectives 39 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: which includes a five point road map UM, which, for 40 00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: those of you who have been following m R for 41 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,840 Speaker 1: some time, is often the way that they frame their 42 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: UM kind of sham and circuitous approaches to civilian governance. UM. 43 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: But UM that articulates a series of reforms, restoring law 44 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: and order, you know, social development, implementing a peace process, 45 00:02:55,120 --> 00:03:00,560 Speaker 1: and then holding elections UM. And this is I think 46 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: indicates to most people that elections are very unlikely to 47 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 1: occur any time in the near future. UM. They did 48 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: something almost identical in two thousand and four articulating a 49 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: roadmap to democracy, and that didn't really start until two 50 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: thousand and ten, UM, where when there were elections and 51 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,320 Speaker 1: there weren't really meaningful ones until UM. This is kind 52 00:03:25,320 --> 00:03:27,919 Speaker 1: of an indication to I think a lot of folks 53 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 1: that UM elections are unlikely this year and that there's 54 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 1: kind of a long road ahead. UH. The interesting element 55 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: of this will be to see how the the hunta's 56 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: kind of enablers in the international community, including Thailand, China, 57 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: and India in particular, how they will respond, in part 58 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 1: because they were pushing the sac very hard to undertake 59 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:57,280 Speaker 1: these elections as a potential off ramp to the horrifying 60 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: violence that is UM that resulted from the coup and UM, 61 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 1: you know, all the atrocities that the SEC has committed. 62 00:04:04,680 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 1: Maybe we could talk a little bit about the international 63 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 1: support they have because it's still quite significant, and like 64 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: especially in terms of propping up their military force through 65 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 1: the use of air power they can and they don't 66 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: have domestic like fighting yet manufacturing, right, So can you 67 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about that, Like I think they 68 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: received a couple more planes very recently, right, Yeah, from 69 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: UM the Chinese. UM. Yeah. There it's kind of an 70 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 1: interesting dynamic whereby you have a an entire country of 71 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: fifty three ish million people UM fighting against a tiny 72 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:45,119 Speaker 1: military institution of about five or fewer if you include 73 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:48,720 Speaker 1: their families and all the medics UM. And that tiny 74 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: institution is being supported by just a handful of countries UM. 75 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 1: As I said, kind of China, Russia, UH to a 76 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: certain agree, Indian and Thailand, UM, and a few others UM. 77 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 1: And the vast mo jority of the world is kind 78 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 1: of opposes this military takeover and the subsequent dictatorship and 79 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:09,160 Speaker 1: all the her indos atrocities that they've committed. UM. And 80 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: so there's quite a lot of international actors who are 81 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:18,040 Speaker 1: providing kind of UM rhetorical support to the resistance and 82 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:21,719 Speaker 1: some you know, support to civil society and humanitarian assistance 83 00:05:21,720 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: and others. But you know, on balance the support that 84 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: the Chinese, Indians Russians in particular UM have provided in 85 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 1: terms of material assistance to the s A c UM 86 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: as well as the diplomatic assistance that the Chinese provide 87 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: at the Security Council in particular, but also the Ties 88 00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: provide UM with an ascion is you know for outweighs 89 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: the rhetorical and small material assistance at the West and 90 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: UM you know other supporters of the resistance movements have 91 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 1: provided UM so yes, to answer your question, the you know, 92 00:05:57,520 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 1: the Chinese and Indians continue to provide material military assistance 93 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: to the s A c UM. And you know, my 94 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 1: question is kind of what is there theory of change 95 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 1: here and how will UM supporting the SAC militarily lead 96 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 1: to anything like stabilization. It's just kind of perplexing to 97 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 1: me when both countries are very UM interested in in 98 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 1: in supporting US a level of functional stability so they 99 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: can undertake their economic and geopolitical objectives UM, many of 100 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 1: which go through my Mr UM. I just don't really 101 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: understand how they see kind of a military victory bry 102 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,440 Speaker 1: the s A c as a pathway to stabilization when 103 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,480 Speaker 1: you have an entire nation that has risen up against 104 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 1: UH the dictatorship and has wholly rejected it and demonstrated 105 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: that they're willing to make the these incredible sacrifices to 106 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: UM to ensure that this coup does not succeed. Yeah, 107 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: it is. It's very perfecting because like it's not in 108 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: in any sort of conventional sense like a consolidated regime 109 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: and no show any chance of being one. Right, Like, 110 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: it doesn't even have territorial control of a large sways 111 00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: of the country that they claims. Yeah, exactly, and you're 112 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: you're even hearing this. I mean, there's been quite a 113 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: bit of research, contested research that that shows the HUNTA 114 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: has less than fifty control. But even today you are differ. 115 00:07:25,720 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: Yesterday you heard from an online the the hunter leader 116 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 1: UM that he's now admitting that they UM only have 117 00:07:33,240 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: sixty percent control, which is a pretty sangular analysis of 118 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 1: what they control. UM, it's probably much smaller than that. 119 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: But you know, them demonstrating that they do not have 120 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: UM control over forty of the country as a pretty 121 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: staggering proposition and kind of indication to their allies that UM, 122 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: you know, they just don't have the capacity to administer 123 00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: a country that's unwilling to be pacified and um so 124 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:05,040 Speaker 1: and and you know, on top of that, there's very 125 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: little I just don't see a pathway in which they 126 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 1: will capture more territory. Um. I mean they have, you know, 127 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: constrained resources. Um they have. I think they had twenty 128 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 1: two entrants into the Defense Service Academy last year. I 129 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 1: mean there's when they when there's casualties on the front lines, 130 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: you just there's not a lot of replacement happening. Um, 131 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: They're not able to get spare parts for their Russian 132 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: made helicopters. You know, there's just major material constraints that 133 00:08:33,880 --> 00:08:36,120 Speaker 1: the S a c. S. Military is facing, and it's 134 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: just hard to imagine that they will ever regain much 135 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: more than you know, what they say is territorial control. Yeah, 136 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:47,079 Speaker 1: it's it's very if. Then if we look at the 137 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 1: PDF by comparison, and I got banned from Twitter last 138 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: week for posting a picture of them, but their equipment 139 00:08:56,080 --> 00:09:00,040 Speaker 1: compared to even a year ago, is vastly improved. I 140 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: don't know if you saw the one group of guys 141 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,760 Speaker 1: with it actually international rifle, but I have no idea 142 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: where that came from, but it it's very impressive that 143 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: they have one. Yeah, yeah, it's kind of um Honestly, 144 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: the resilience of this movement is partly a testament to 145 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: the ingenuity and innovation UM. I mean, we saw it 146 00:09:20,800 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: in the beginning in the non violent action, demonstrating or 147 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 1: kind of deploying tactics that we've never seen before that 148 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: have you know, been lessons to other international non violent 149 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 1: movements around the world. Just really creative fundraising tactics, as 150 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 1: you and I have discussed in the past. But yeah, 151 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 1: now it's the military ingenuity. I mean, essentially creating UM 152 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:48,559 Speaker 1: facilities for retrofitting drones for aerial attacks. UM. One of 153 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:52,559 Speaker 1: the military's helicopters was taken down this morning. I haven't 154 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:56,000 Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what weapons were used in that, 155 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 1: but you know, it's just kind of a level of 156 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: innovation given uh, these you know, the PDFs and most 157 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: of the eras have have very little access to very 158 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:12,480 Speaker 1: few kind of international um, you know, arms markets. So 159 00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: the fact that they're able to sustain themselves at all 160 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:19,199 Speaker 1: and maintain this, you know, which is probably much more 161 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: of the territory is is kind of an incredible testament 162 00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: to their innovation and ingenuity. Yeah, it's like there's a 163 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: couple obviously of several PDF fighters who I keep in 164 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: touch with, and like they they have spoken to me 165 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 1: about like first or three D printed guns, which we've 166 00:10:34,480 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 1: spoken about extentively, but also torna CA's night vision goggles, 167 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 1: even process like like limbs people who have lost legs, 168 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: right to land minds and things. So like, it's amazing 169 00:10:47,520 --> 00:10:49,679 Speaker 1: that they've set up all these things which normally require 170 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,920 Speaker 1: like a massive interaction with the state and with an 171 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:55,760 Speaker 1: international system, and they've done it using in this case, 172 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: the Internet and a three hundred dollar printer. They've got 173 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: an early Express or something. Yeah, it's incredible. Yeah, it's 174 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:05,720 Speaker 1: it's extremely sort of inspiration on that sense, but also 175 00:11:05,960 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: very sad. Like I want to talk a little bit 176 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: about the the s a C seems to have. It's 177 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: not fair to say they've pivoted to war crimes, because 178 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: it's been kind of integral to what they've done from 179 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: the outset, but they seem to have given up on 180 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 1: trying to make like targeted strikes against the military formations 181 00:11:23,120 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 1: and just pivoted to dropping bombs on civilians. Could you 182 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:29,280 Speaker 1: talk about a couple of those, like maybe we could 183 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: talk about the Kitchen Music cultural festival they bombed, or 184 00:11:34,080 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 1: well one of the other examples of that. Yeah, there's 185 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 1: definitely been a shift from UM a strategy of essentially 186 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:48,400 Speaker 1: augmenting UM or providing air support to UH kind of 187 00:11:48,440 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 1: exposed frontline light infantry, to a tactic of targeted air 188 00:11:54,520 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 1: strikes against civilian targets and against UM or organization headquarters 189 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: which had UM under previous UM negotiation has been deemed 190 00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:10,959 Speaker 1: like off limits, but UM it seems as if there's 191 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: nothing off limits now. They bombed UM the Chin National 192 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: Front's headquarters which is right on the India Chin border 193 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: UM on the western part of the mr UM and 194 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:28,080 Speaker 1: there's pretty reliable accounts that there were UM there were 195 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: bombs that landed in Indian territory. UM. I mean, as 196 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:35,319 Speaker 1: you reference, they there was a bombing in um, a 197 00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: Chin state on a on a festival, killing at least 198 00:12:38,960 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: sixty civilians. They've done something similar on UM UH ethnic 199 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,920 Speaker 1: Armed Organization headquarters in the southeastern Karan territories, including the 200 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 1: our acount of armies facilities in those areas. So there 201 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: has been a shift in tactic to UM targeting headquarters 202 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: facilities in that sense and as you said, kind of 203 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: civilian targets to I don't know, you know, this is 204 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: just the modus operandi of an institution that is devoid 205 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:16,319 Speaker 1: of humanity and um, so alienated from society that they 206 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,920 Speaker 1: you know, they're they're willing to go to any ends 207 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: to kind of protect themselves and their control of power. 208 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: I think, particularly now that they've seen that the public 209 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: is against them, and um probably quite concerned that if 210 00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 1: they are unsuccessful in this military endeavor that they will 211 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:38,240 Speaker 1: be kind of strung up, you know. So it's um yeah, 212 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: I think it's kind of a sign of desperation and 213 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 1: as you mentioned, kind of a tactical shifty. Maybe we 214 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 1: should explain the sort of four cut strategy, which has 215 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: been a long term strategy even before the coupe of 216 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 1: the military, and what that means and how that sort 217 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 1: of provide I guess I didn't like a moral framework, 218 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: maybe a certain weight that you know that it's it's 219 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: not like they started doing this ship in February one, 220 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 1: right like that, this is what this is how they 221 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: do stuff. I mean, this is an institution that's been 222 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: at war with its own people for seventy years. Um yeah, 223 00:14:21,440 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: I mean, the there is an underlying philosophy of them, 224 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:31,359 Speaker 1: our military that that that they essentially are the protectors 225 00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: of national sovereignty and to a certain degree of protectors 226 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: of the Bamar ethnic group and Bomar Buddhism in particular. 227 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: And UM, this is a deeply in trance philosophy within 228 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: the UM military establishment, and UM it's been to a 229 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: certain degree a fairly compelling narrative for retention and institutional solidarity, 230 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: which is why in some part, I mean, it's one 231 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: of the reasons there are a number why this the 232 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 1: s A C. And the sit that memory military is 233 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 1: has been resilient to UM collapse despite you know, being 234 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 1: extremely incompetent and UM very isolated UM and virtually never 235 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:17,320 Speaker 1: having one a war, despite being at war for seventy 236 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: years and having structural and military manages UM. And so 237 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: this is kind of underlying the justification and the moral 238 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 1: philosophy of this institution that is morally UM corrupted. But 239 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 1: as you said, their UM tactical strategy is essentially one 240 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:42,000 Speaker 1: of social isolation, division UM and ensuring as much human 241 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: suffering as possible so as to UM pacify a population 242 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 1: into submission. And so essentially the strategy is to kind 243 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: of cut communications and food supply and um uh connections 244 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 1: between communities and these sorts of things, which is um 245 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: we're For a very long time, the military strategy has 246 00:16:02,520 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 1: been one of divide and conquer, in which they've um 247 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: attempted to exacerbate divisions between ethnic and religious minority communities 248 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 1: to ensure that they would not face a united front. 249 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: And so the incredible challenge and opportunity of the current 250 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: resistance movement is one in which the MIAM or military 251 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: is no longer at the table in conversations with one another, 252 00:16:28,400 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: um and they are trying to build cohesion with one another. 253 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: And frankly, this is where there's unbelievable progress that I 254 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:42,320 Speaker 1: don't think gets enough attention and appreciation that there's meaningful 255 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: changes in behavior in terms of the Bomar majority ethnic communities, 256 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: posture towards ethnic and religious minorities, and you know, communication 257 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: and coordination across UM institutions that had historically been at 258 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: odds and happy to go more into that, but yeah, 259 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: the strategy of dividing conqueror is really front and center. Yeah, 260 00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:07,960 Speaker 1: and ironically, by pushing that so high that they've they've 261 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 1: done the complete opposite, which is forced people to form 262 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: like a popular front against him. Yeah, let's talk about that, 263 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:16,720 Speaker 1: because I find it really fascinating, how like even how 264 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: like E A O s and PDFs are kind of 265 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 1: vaguely underneath a unified command at this point. And again, 266 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: let's talk about how those barriers which you doceted for 267 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: so long a sort of gradually breaking down now, yeah, rapidly. 268 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 1: I guess one of the ways in which there's been 269 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 1: a meaningful shift has been just kind of the individual 270 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:42,000 Speaker 1: experiences of the military's atrocities. I mean, um, I think 271 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: in your previous episode with Conchomo, he had indicated that, uh, 272 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 1: you know, public perception of Rohena has shifted somewhat, although 273 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:53,399 Speaker 1: it's kind of questionable whether it's a durable shift and 274 00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 1: whether it's meaningful and all that. But um, he had 275 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 1: attributed that shift in part to the fact that the 276 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 1: Bomar majority Buddhist population is now experiencing frankly, some of 277 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:07,800 Speaker 1: the forms of atrocity that the Rohenja had experienced, you know, 278 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: in the seventies and the nineties and then in seventeen 279 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,880 Speaker 1: um when things escalated to genocide. So I think this 280 00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 1: is One of the shifts is that the in the 281 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: Burmese heartland, in the area where the military recruits most 282 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 1: of its soldiers, UM, they are undertaking the most arguably 283 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: the most um extreme atrocities, burning villages to the ground, um, 284 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: you know, just horrendous stuff that like I don't even 285 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:36,439 Speaker 1: want to say on the air, but just um, you know, 286 00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:40,199 Speaker 1: just an incredible campaign of terror. Um. In part because 287 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 1: the people's defense forces and the resistance forces are are 288 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:48,880 Speaker 1: extremely strong there and only strengthening in response to these atrocities. 289 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:50,919 Speaker 1: So I think that's one of the dynamics is that 290 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:55,160 Speaker 1: there's um, there's been a shift in perception because of um, 291 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: because of the Hunter's behavior. Another is that, frankly, there's 292 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: just a man of political shift at play. I mean, 293 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: you have you know, February one, the National League, like 294 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:09,120 Speaker 1: Nationally for Democracy led government is deposed and they don't 295 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 1: necessarily have arms or an experience of military combat, whereas 296 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:16,359 Speaker 1: the ethnic armed organizations have been fighting for seventy years 297 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 1: against the central government, including the National League for Democracy 298 00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:23,440 Speaker 1: led government. And so there is a shift in power 299 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,680 Speaker 1: at that moment um that you know, shift power from 300 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,159 Speaker 1: the Bamar center to ethnic minority communities in a in 301 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: a particular way. So UM, that kind of open space 302 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: for greater humility and greater dialogue and UM, you know, 303 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: willingness to make concessions to ethnic and religious inn arty communities. UM, 304 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 1: and that isn't there's actually been tremendous progress there. So 305 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,919 Speaker 1: there's the National Unity Consultative Council, which is, you know, 306 00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 1: probably the most important dialogue platform, but one one that 307 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:58,639 Speaker 1: is very focused on big picture governance challenges UM and 308 00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: long term kind of national dialogue processes. But UM, there's 309 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 1: been some good progress there. But frankly, the most progress 310 00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:11,640 Speaker 1: has been made in UM military and governance coordination platforms. 311 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:15,600 Speaker 1: So this includes the C three C, which is essentially 312 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,680 Speaker 1: a commanded control platform that's between the National Unity government 313 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: and ethnic armed organization leadership where they're coordinating military strategy 314 00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: and tactics. So that and there's been considerable trust building 315 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 1: through those sorts of operations. And similarly, there's been trust 316 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 1: building in you know, basic things like coordinating humanitarian assistance 317 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:43,439 Speaker 1: or UM local administration or policing these sorts of things. 318 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 1: UM where there's um, you know, there's a problem that's 319 00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:49,359 Speaker 1: needed to be solved in the near term and we 320 00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:52,439 Speaker 1: can come together to solve it collaboratively and in that 321 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,719 Speaker 1: process sort of build understanding and trust with one another. 322 00:20:55,840 --> 00:21:00,080 Speaker 1: So UM, there's been really meaningful differences I've seen in 323 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:05,359 Speaker 1: terms of cohesion across traditional lines of intercommunal division. UM. 324 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: Obviously a long way to go, but this is a 325 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: lot of what what we're working on at the US 326 00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:13,119 Speaker 1: and Student Peace and UM that the U. S. Government 327 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: is supporting is trying to support the resistance capacity to 328 00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 1: chart a viable pathway to stabilization, and a lot of 329 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: that relies upon building cohesion and trust among resistance groups. Yeah. 330 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 1: Everyone I spoke to Neibly, not everyone I spoke to 331 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,639 Speaker 1: is Mama, some people with Karen UM and some of 332 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: them were some of the people we've spoken to, like 333 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,760 Speaker 1: remotely or Ranger. UM. All of them said that what 334 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:43,879 Speaker 1: has to come out of this is like a federalized democracy. 335 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: Do you think that that's that's likely? And what does 336 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 1: that look like in the country it's spent war with 337 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 1: itself for most of the last century. Yeah, I mean, 338 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:56,280 Speaker 1: clearly this is a question that needs to be answered 339 00:21:56,320 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: by them people. UM. And I think the National Unity 340 00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 1: Consultative Council is a good platform for having this discussion. 341 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,679 Speaker 1: But there is a number of free requisits for for 342 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,880 Speaker 1: having that discussion is and one of them is kind 343 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:13,440 Speaker 1: of new norms of dialogue based on trust and mutual 344 00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 1: um respect. But yeah, I think that um, the only 345 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 1: viable pathway to stability is you know, is one that 346 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: results in a federal democratic system in which subnational federal 347 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,879 Speaker 1: units have a degree of autonomy, UM, and in which 348 00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: there is a baseline of equality. UM, there's rule of law, 349 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: independent judiciary, UM. You know, just the basic fundamentals that 350 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:49,360 Speaker 1: ensure protections of minority populations. UM. You know. Another challenge 351 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 1: being that even you know, within states like Kachin State, 352 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: where you know, the Kachin at the community is an 353 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: ethnic minority at the national level, but there are also 354 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: subminaries that you know, like the Shawnee population, and and 355 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,880 Speaker 1: there's concerns that you know, there may um, there needs 356 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,160 Speaker 1: to be protections for the minorities within the minority state. 357 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 1: So you know, all of these things need to be 358 00:23:10,600 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: sort of worked out. And this is of course, like 359 00:23:12,440 --> 00:23:16,360 Speaker 1: a maybe a decade long national dialogue process that will 360 00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:20,320 Speaker 1: ultimately culminate in a new federal governance structure, a new 361 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:24,959 Speaker 1: security structure that you know, maybe doesn't have a federal 362 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:28,359 Speaker 1: you know, a union level military with the level of 363 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: autonomy or political involvement that you know has played this 364 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: country for so long. But this is really like the 365 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,199 Speaker 1: key to long term peace and stability in the country. 366 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 1: And frankly, like it felt a long way off under 367 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 1: the NLD administration. I mean, they were making a lot 368 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 1: of progress in a lot of ways, but you know, 369 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,719 Speaker 1: building a just and inequitable governance structure in which ethnic 370 00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 1: and religious minorities had a voice and didn't feel oppressed 371 00:23:56,280 --> 00:24:00,639 Speaker 1: by the dominant Bmar Budhist population um Avranfully it was, 372 00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,440 Speaker 1: it was quite all ways off. And this, you know, 373 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: as horrible as the cure has been, it is definitely 374 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 1: a shock to the system that may open up new 375 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:14,160 Speaker 1: pathways for dialogue, um, new opportunities for trust building, and 376 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: you know, the opportunity to you know, think about a 377 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: new model of governance that is you know, more just 378 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,600 Speaker 1: more equitable and more inclusive. Yeah, it's definitely brought in 379 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: a whole generation of younger people who like aren't sort 380 00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: of who didn't come through the institutions that created the 381 00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 1: old regime and just came at this it's like I'm 382 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 1: seventeen and I'm bucking angry and like I'm going to 383 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: make this better sort of however I can. And yeah, 384 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:43,880 Speaker 1: they're they're really, I mean obviously very inspirational and then 385 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 1: fascinated to talk to. I wonder, like, how do you 386 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: see the end to this conflict? Because we're still a 387 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:56,360 Speaker 1: long way from either side having an definitive military victory. Right, Certainly, 388 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 1: all these big cities are still more or less controlled 389 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 1: by the Hunter and that's there's not an immediate way 390 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 1: that I can foresee them not being that way. So 391 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: if I could ask you to like speculate a little 392 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,439 Speaker 1: bit or look at the way things are going, how 393 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,200 Speaker 1: do we get out of the situation where the Hunters 394 00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:17,360 Speaker 1: bombing schools and music concerts and right, um m hmm, 395 00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,720 Speaker 1: it's yeah. This is honestly, like I think everyone is 396 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 1: kind of lost, um in our attempts to make predictions 397 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:31,199 Speaker 1: of where this is going. Um, Honestly, I don't know 398 00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:34,439 Speaker 1: that there is a path to a military victory for 399 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: either side here. Um, I mean, it seems pretty unlikely 400 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,639 Speaker 1: that you'll SEEPDS marching on nepied on capturing the Ministry 401 00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:48,520 Speaker 1: of Defense, anytime soon, UM. But equally unlikely that the 402 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 1: s a C will consolidate, you know, control of the country. 403 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:57,199 Speaker 1: I mean, that's just that's just not going to happen. UM. 404 00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,240 Speaker 1: So I mean the the a lot of our work 405 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,680 Speaker 1: is thinking through the best possible outcomes and increasing the 406 00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: probably trying doing the work to try to increase the 407 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:11,360 Speaker 1: probability of those outcomes. And I think the UM this 408 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 1: is where it's just like I have questions for a 409 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,399 Speaker 1: lot of the international actors that are supporting the s 410 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: a C, because I I just don't know of any 411 00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:23,159 Speaker 1: possible pathway to peace and stabilization that goes through a 412 00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 1: stronger s a C. It just seems unfathomable. UM. But 413 00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 1: you know, there are pathways to stabilization that go through 414 00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 1: a stronger resistance movement that either yields some radical transformation 415 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 1: of the SACS composition and then some sort of dialogue 416 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:46,760 Speaker 1: process UM, or you know, just a very very extended 417 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 1: UM conflict in which you know, the resistance holds territory 418 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: UM in some parts of the country, the SAC controls 419 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 1: some other areas UM over an extended period. The ethnic 420 00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 1: arm to organizations contain kind of UM act more and 421 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: more autonomously, and you have areas in you know, Kachin 422 00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,840 Speaker 1: and Wa Ho Kong and the Chinese border, re Kind 423 00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 1: State that's kind of gained a bit more autonomy and 424 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 1: sort of act more independently of one another. So like 425 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 1: this sort of fragmentation process. And honestly, if if there 426 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: is an election, you know, a sham election by the 427 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 1: s a C, it seems to increase the probability of 428 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:32,679 Speaker 1: this fragmentation scenario. Um. You know, it increases the probability 429 00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,240 Speaker 1: that the SAC just maintains its presence in the in 430 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:40,520 Speaker 1: the urban areas, and then Rekind State, Kachin State, Waw State, 431 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: these kind of become more autonomous regions, Chin State, um, 432 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 1: and they start to operate as semi independent states. So honestly, 433 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,399 Speaker 1: that's that's part of why I feel like support to 434 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: the s a C. Not only is it the SAC 435 00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,680 Speaker 1: for the elections, I should say, not only does it 436 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,239 Speaker 1: almost definitely increased violence because you know, the elections are 437 00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,119 Speaker 1: a target, but also it increases the probability of national 438 00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 1: fragmentation UM. And it doesn't do anything to increase the 439 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:14,880 Speaker 1: probability of stability. So I just don't I don't really 440 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:20,040 Speaker 1: see that that being a pathway to any form of 441 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 1: stability or ending the SACS bombings of schools. Yeah, I 442 00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:27,479 Speaker 1: think it gives them this way talking point bit at 443 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 1: the Russian sham elections in the Dom Bass, like like 444 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 1: because we saw like I think it was a mobi 445 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,200 Speaker 1: a PDFU. I don't know if you saw this, but 446 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: they did a drive by and shot some people who 447 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 1: were polling for it out doing some kind of election stuff, 448 00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: and obviously that gives them this kind of Oh, look, 449 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 1: our election workers are being attacked with terrible people. The 450 00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:49,400 Speaker 1: PDFs are kind of but you know, if you've spent 451 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 1: more than ten minutes your entire life reading about Memma, 452 00:28:52,680 --> 00:29:06,680 Speaker 1: then you realize that that's the false claim. The international 453 00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,959 Speaker 1: community just doesn't seem to care to a large degree 454 00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: about the trustees in Miama, about the revolution in Miama, 455 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:17,240 Speaker 1: about the core and MIMA certainly doesn't care in the 456 00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,800 Speaker 1: same way that it cares about what's happening in Ukraine. Right, 457 00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: it doesn't care with man pads and tanks and guns 458 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,840 Speaker 1: and training and all the things that could bring this 459 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,320 Speaker 1: water an end much more quickly. Do you think that 460 00:29:30,520 --> 00:29:34,280 Speaker 1: that will change or it's just going to be Burmese 461 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 1: people liberating Burmese people because the world doesn't care about them, 462 00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 1: It doesn't care in a material fashion. Yeah. I think 463 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,880 Speaker 1: there's like, yeah, I think there's UM sort of like 464 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,400 Speaker 1: two dynamics, and player one is that, Yeah, people care 465 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: a lot less than Ukraine or Taiwan or other geopolitical interest. 466 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,400 Speaker 1: They see this to a certain level as a domestic 467 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 1: issue that doesn't have regional locations, something that we're very 468 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 1: focused on demonstrating is totally untrue. UM. And the other 469 00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: thing is that people don't know what to do. And 470 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 1: like I mean, even UM, the US Congress just past 471 00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: the Burma Act, which is a piece of legislation that 472 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:21,200 Speaker 1: essentially signals congressional interest in Burma and more to be 473 00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 1: done UM, alongside appropriations of resources to support it. UM. 474 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,600 Speaker 1: The challenge now is figuring out what is the best 475 00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,320 Speaker 1: use of resources. And I think that UM countries like 476 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: Japan and UM, honestly some U states, you know, Ascan states. 477 00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:44,560 Speaker 1: It's more they are very uncomfortable with the engaging with 478 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 1: revolutionary actors and there's just not a lot of certainty 479 00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:52,880 Speaker 1: as to how to help because there's like, okay, military 480 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,840 Speaker 1: assistance UM. To the end, EU G It's like there's 481 00:30:56,840 --> 00:31:01,320 Speaker 1: a lot of concern that you know, you know, significant 482 00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 1: expansion of arms access in the country is you know, 483 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 1: you have this mass proliferation of weapons. You have you know, 484 00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 1: concerns about post conflict warlordism or weapons and resources getting 485 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 1: into the hands of narco traffickers. UM. You know, there's 486 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 1: just a lot of uncertainty, and so there's not an 487 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 1: adequate given what the first point that this is really 488 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 1: a kind of peripheral regional matter in the eyes of 489 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:31,840 Speaker 1: some UM, it yields a very low risk tolerance and 490 00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 1: uncertainty as to what to do. And so this kind 491 00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 1: of has resulted in a couple of things, one being 492 00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:45,440 Speaker 1: that the buck is just passed to multilateral institutions like ACON. 493 00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 1: I mean, I think China has done a very effective 494 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:52,160 Speaker 1: job of ensuring nothing happens in the international realm UM 495 00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,760 Speaker 1: by pushing it to Ascion, which it knows is incapable 496 00:31:55,880 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 1: of doing anything meaningful UM. And so it's just relegated 497 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: to multilateral platforms where nothing will happen. You always have 498 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 1: a veto from UM Highland Cambodia or Russia and China 499 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 1: at the n S, at the Security Council, UM and 500 00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:14,800 Speaker 1: so you know, it's these combinations of factors that really 501 00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 1: challenge this thing. And even within the U. S. Government 502 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,480 Speaker 1: there's like a very robust inter agency debate about exactly 503 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: what is the best form of assistance, what is the 504 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 1: most ethical way of engaging and UM, what are risks 505 00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:30,719 Speaker 1: associated with different forms of assistance to the resistance movement UM. 506 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,800 Speaker 1: So I think that uncertainty plays a lot into it, 507 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 1: and so UM a lot of what I think there's 508 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 1: a lot of value that could be added if UM 509 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:45,880 Speaker 1: the resistance movement can come together essentially around a common 510 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:50,480 Speaker 1: set of requests from the international community, essentially saying this 511 00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 1: is what we need UM to be effective. And you 512 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 1: know you, based on your risk tolerance, help us as 513 00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,800 Speaker 1: you can. But we're demonstrating to you that we have 514 00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 1: we're unified in these ways, we have these needs, and UM, 515 00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: you know, help us however you feel is most appropriate 516 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 1: given your risk tolerance. So, I don't know, it's incredibly complicated. 517 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 1: I think them having China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Laos 518 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:24,080 Speaker 1: as your neighbors also makes this just incredibly challenging. You 519 00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 1: can't access the country in the way that you can UM. 520 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:33,480 Speaker 1: For Ukraine. Um so just logistically it's incredibly challenging. Yeah, 521 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 1: that's true. Yeah, it does seem still like like you said, 522 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 1: like it's like in Ukraine, we also have deeply problematic 523 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,920 Speaker 1: groups who we are, who we are arming, And yeah, 524 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 1: it's it's ironic that their concern is spreading the preventing 525 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 1: the proliferation in arms, and what they've done has helped 526 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:53,480 Speaker 1: like a giant leap forward in I don't know, artisanal 527 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:58,640 Speaker 1: homemade weapons technology, like we're probably only seeing the very 528 00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,040 Speaker 1: tip of in like our porting, Like, I'm sure that's 529 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,600 Speaker 1: more stuff that we'll see as time goes on. And 530 00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,760 Speaker 1: but I wonder what can people do? People often ask 531 00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:10,080 Speaker 1: like if where they can donate, how they can help, right, 532 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 1: because obviously it is extremely difficult to see little kids 533 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 1: getting shot in schools, and I want to do something, 534 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:20,080 Speaker 1: And I wonder what you would suggest for people who 535 00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 1: are looking to help. We've both spoken to people who 536 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,759 Speaker 1: are collecting money through click to donate, which is one 537 00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 1: thing people can do. But um, do you want to 538 00:34:28,520 --> 00:34:31,520 Speaker 1: explain that, actually explain how people can and can participate 539 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 1: in click to donate. I think that's cool. Yeah, I 540 00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:38,759 Speaker 1: mean there's been a number of really fascinating fundraising models. UM. Yeah, 541 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,320 Speaker 1: the click to notitate model is essentially the resistance leveraging 542 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,200 Speaker 1: what it has UM a comparative advantage in which is 543 00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:50,279 Speaker 1: huge numbers of people on their side, and essentially, um, 544 00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:55,160 Speaker 1: the resistance creates creates web pages or YouTube content or anything, 545 00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 1: and you know, just engages the advertisements on those pages, 546 00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:01,720 Speaker 1: which increa us is the value of those that ad space, 547 00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,719 Speaker 1: and then they can kind of generate revenue that way. Um. 548 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:08,360 Speaker 1: The National Unity government has also done some really fascinating 549 00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:15,319 Speaker 1: stuff issuing bonds, uh, conducting a lottery, um, selling off 550 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:20,359 Speaker 1: you know, s a c military properties. I think they 551 00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 1: just sold the minile on Alnes House and Yangon for 552 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,000 Speaker 1: a considerable amount. Um. So it's kind of a an 553 00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 1: incredible fundraising model and requiring tremendous innovation. They also created 554 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,800 Speaker 1: uh a financial technology called and new g pay and 555 00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,839 Speaker 1: a digital current currency d mmk um. So yeah, it's 556 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 1: it's kind of a remarkable um innovation there. Um. In 557 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:49,080 Speaker 1: terms of what kind of a uh your listeners could do, 558 00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 1: I think, um, you know, I think engaging in uh 559 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,360 Speaker 1: some of the international kind of advocacy and awareness raising 560 00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:02,399 Speaker 1: is is really valuable I think some of these things 561 00:36:02,480 --> 00:36:06,879 Speaker 1: like if you know, if you're a congress person acknowledges 562 00:36:07,040 --> 00:36:11,280 Speaker 1: demand for this, then that can increase that the pressure 563 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,399 Speaker 1: that they put on the State Department, d D, Natural 564 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,759 Speaker 1: Security Council, UM and potentially increase the risk tolemance of 565 00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,239 Speaker 1: the US government if if there's just more pressure there. 566 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:25,120 Speaker 1: So those sorts of things I think, UM, honestly engaging 567 00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,600 Speaker 1: with some of the content that's being that's being created 568 00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,480 Speaker 1: by the resistance, learning about my mr um, you know, 569 00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:36,640 Speaker 1: just just following the story. I mean, it's like, I 570 00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 1: don't know, you've probably experienced this doing your reporting, but 571 00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:44,399 Speaker 1: it's just like the most unbelievable stories of human resilience 572 00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:48,480 Speaker 1: and just like, I don't know, it's it's such like 573 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,520 Speaker 1: an honor to be near by these people who are 574 00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:56,480 Speaker 1: just risking so much for such a for such an 575 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:59,120 Speaker 1: honorable cause that they truly believe in. It's just like 576 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 1: the quintessential example of integrity and um, yeah, goodness, yeah, 577 00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,200 Speaker 1: it's amazing. It's stuff you couldn't make up and like 578 00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:12,120 Speaker 1: it's stories you can sell as fiction and almost like yeah, 579 00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:15,960 Speaker 1: their integrity, like even they're like and one thing I 580 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,719 Speaker 1: find absolutely amazing like you said, perspectives on ethnic groups 581 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,880 Speaker 1: have changed on so many things that people they're willingness 582 00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,680 Speaker 1: to be like, I've examined my stance on this and 583 00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:27,960 Speaker 1: it was the wrong stance, and I'm changing my stance 584 00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 1: on this. It's like we spoke to so many young 585 00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:35,960 Speaker 1: people who were like, yeah, I was fairly misogynist, like 586 00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:41,120 Speaker 1: a February one, and since then, like I fought alongside women, 587 00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,840 Speaker 1: I've you know, I've seen them do things that I didn't. 588 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:46,960 Speaker 1: I've been told that they weren't capable of, and I've changed. 589 00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:49,239 Speaker 1: I was wrong, and like we need to not be 590 00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,440 Speaker 1: a misogynist country going forward. Yeah, no, there was. I 591 00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,760 Speaker 1: was maybe you know this group, but I was engaging 592 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:58,960 Speaker 1: with organization that was it's led by kind of an activist, 593 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,279 Speaker 1: former active um, and he was kind of saying that 594 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:07,279 Speaker 1: they've essentially tried to eliminate all of the sort of 595 00:38:07,440 --> 00:38:13,000 Speaker 1: misogyny in their in their training protocols, like even just 596 00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:15,960 Speaker 1: using terms like man up or something. It's like wiped 597 00:38:16,000 --> 00:38:18,439 Speaker 1: it from their approach because it's like that's a misogynistic 598 00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:22,279 Speaker 1: kind of you know, approach to thinking about strength and power, 599 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,400 Speaker 1: and so it's like what you're saying is I'm here, 600 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 1: I'm feeling the same hearing the same things. It's which 601 00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:32,279 Speaker 1: is incredibly powerful given particularly given the pressures and what 602 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:36,399 Speaker 1: they're all going through, just having the wherewithal to kind 603 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,640 Speaker 1: of like their head ups and think about, you know, 604 00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:42,280 Speaker 1: be reflective of themselves. Like imagine in the American political discourse, 605 00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:46,359 Speaker 1: people actually changing their minds for once. It's remarkable. Yeah, yeah, 606 00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,439 Speaker 1: genuine is. And it's refreshing in that sense to see 607 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,000 Speaker 1: people like wanting the right thing and not letting tiny 608 00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:55,799 Speaker 1: differences like blow them into severn thousand different pieces, right, 609 00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:57,840 Speaker 1: the broad date grain on one thing. Yeah, exactly, And 610 00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,279 Speaker 1: that's kind of the remarkable. I mean, the nation need 611 00:39:00,320 --> 00:39:03,200 Speaker 1: to consultative Counsel for example. You know, it's had its 612 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:07,120 Speaker 1: challenges um as a dialogue platform, but it's still going 613 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:09,760 Speaker 1: and that is like people are still coming to the table. 614 00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:14,960 Speaker 1: And frankly, it's remarkable because repeatedly, in quote unquote peace 615 00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:19,480 Speaker 1: processes in MR history, they've collapsed because you know, someone 616 00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,000 Speaker 1: said something and you know another party left the table 617 00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:26,800 Speaker 1: um and didn't return. So the fact that these dialogues 618 00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:32,719 Speaker 1: are continuing on is an incredible testament to people's willingness 619 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,440 Speaker 1: to kind of open up and be more humble and 620 00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 1: kind of consider the other's opinion and question their own, 621 00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:45,120 Speaker 1: which is you know, a lesson we could all learn. Yeah, yeah, definitely, Billy, 622 00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:47,920 Speaker 1: where can people like, where can people find you online? 623 00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,040 Speaker 1: And where can they find more get information about my 624 00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:54,279 Speaker 1: m um? I am you know, if you search Billy 625 00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:57,359 Speaker 1: Ford at us I P dot org you can find 626 00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,000 Speaker 1: the stuff I've written recently. And then I'm on Twitter 627 00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:03,080 Speaker 1: here at b I L L E the number four, 628 00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:08,520 Speaker 1: the letter d UM and good sources of information. I mean, 629 00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:13,960 Speaker 1: there's great UM investigative work by Myanmar Witness UM, which 630 00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:18,839 Speaker 1: is just an incredible group of researchers. UM. There's been 631 00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:22,200 Speaker 1: a couple of good reports recently by Global Witness and 632 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,359 Speaker 1: Earth Rights related to sanctions that just came out. UM 633 00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,800 Speaker 1: U S I P. You can check out some of 634 00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,640 Speaker 1: our writing. My colleagues Jason Tower in Brasilo Clop just 635 00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:35,560 Speaker 1: published something related to how the conflict has regional consequences 636 00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 1: that could be of interest UM and UM there's I 637 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,920 Speaker 1: don't know, there's innumerable great UM MEAMR think tanks. The 638 00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:47,880 Speaker 1: Chin Human Rights Organization has done some incredible research and 639 00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:52,840 Speaker 1: reporting about military atrocities and Chin State. Um could go 640 00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,719 Speaker 1: on and on, but um yeah, if you I don't know, 641 00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,880 Speaker 1: check out my Twitter. I've tend to repost stuff that 642 00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:03,239 Speaker 1: I find fascinating and there's there's a lot out there. Yeah. Great, Well, 643 00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:04,960 Speaker 1: thank you so much for giving us some of your 644 00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,359 Speaker 1: time this afternoon. Already appreciate it. It's good to catch up. Yeah, 645 00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,200 Speaker 1: thanks for having me. James has been great, no worries. 646 00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,200 Speaker 1: It could happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 647 00:41:18,440 --> 00:41:21,120 Speaker 1: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 648 00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,239 Speaker 1: cool zone media dot com, or check us out on 649 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:25,800 Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you 650 00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,680 Speaker 1: listen to podcasts. You can find sources for It could 651 00:41:28,680 --> 00:41:31,640 Speaker 1: Happen Here, updated monthly at cool zone Media dot com 652 00:41:31,760 --> 00:41:33,600 Speaker 1: slash sources. Thanks for listening.