Speaker 1: Come check it down, then.
Speaker 2: Come low down. Then Friday morning, June thirty, twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: it is the Beating the Book podcast, Gil Alexander. It
Speaker 2: is Wimbledon. Tennis is third major of the year, the
Speaker 2: grass Major, if you will, the shortest of all seasons
Speaker 2: in terms of services in tennis. Grass court season is
Speaker 2: like five weeks total. So this podcast and when we're
Speaker 2: sort of wedging it in, reflects the nature of that
Speaker 2: grass court season. Just as it's hard for some players
Speaker 2: to squeeze in matches before Wimbledon, it was hard to
Speaker 2: squeeze in this podcast, but Drew Densick as always kind
Speaker 2: enough to join us to make it happen. You can
Speaker 2: follow him on Twitter at Whale Underscore Capper. He's the
Speaker 2: host of not one but two podcasts, The Deep Dive podcast,
Speaker 2: which he does with Andy Moltur and of course NBC
Speaker 2: Sports Bet the Edge, and one of I don't know,
Speaker 2: I'm embarrassing maybe a little. I don't know if he's
Speaker 2: gonna agree with this. One of the great global tennis
Speaker 2: minds that there is. How about that?
Speaker 1: How about that? Drew?
Speaker 2: You do it man?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll take it. I definitely. I think there are many, many, many,
Speaker 1: many greater global tennis minds. But if you want to
Speaker 1: give me a qualification of being able to weave what
Speaker 1: I'm seeing on tennis into a handicap better than your
Speaker 1: average you know, tennis fan or prognosticator, that's fine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we'll go with that.
Speaker 2: Yeah he's so, here's the deal, everybody. So we're recording
Speaker 2: this at nine am Pacific twelve noon Eastern on Friday.
Speaker 2: The main draw begins in less than less than forty
Speaker 2: eight hours. They just put out the draw this morning
Speaker 2: in terms of overnight Stateside, so while we were sleeping,
Speaker 2: the men's and the women's draw came out. As other
Speaker 2: random grass court tournaments in England and Germany specifically wind down,
Speaker 2: and some people are quitting left and right. Ego, for instance, said,
Speaker 2: I'm not feeling well. She decided after getting to the semis,
Speaker 2: her first semi have a grasscourt tournament. She's like, deuces.
Speaker 2: Sounds to me like she's just getting ready for Wimbledon.
Speaker 2: I don't know, but that's what it sounds like. So
Speaker 2: the concern this morning was because I just did a
Speaker 2: numbers game that started two hours before this. When I
Speaker 2: started a numbers game, I just wanted to talk about
Speaker 2: my thoughts on the draw and hopefully there would be
Speaker 2: some numbers associated with the quarters. At that time two
Speaker 2: hours ago, they were just trickling in while I was
Speaker 2: talking about it. So it's just sort of doing it theoretically.
Speaker 2: And then some came in, we have women's numbers as
Speaker 2: we do this. I don't believe we have men's numbers.
Speaker 2: Are you seeing that.
Speaker 1: I'm looking everywhere. There's men's quarters at a couple of spots. Okay, good, Yeah,
Speaker 1: there's there's a pretty good amount of numbers. I mean,
Speaker 1: my numbers now that we've got the draw and I've
Speaker 1: kind of run some sims and I have, you know,
Speaker 1: actual win probabilities for quarters here are hot off the press.
Speaker 1: I haven't even really I haven't even really digested these
Speaker 1: trying to kind of, you know, kind of give them
Speaker 1: a little bit of added score. So you know, there's
Speaker 1: some we may say some things on this podcast that
Speaker 1: ultimately I either don't act on or revise as I
Speaker 1: continue to, you know, kind of go through this process.
Speaker 1: Because as you're mentioning like we're you're you're getting a
Speaker 1: very raw response reaction to you know, what is uh,
Speaker 1: what is a very interesting draw on a women's tournament
Speaker 1: that is going to be fascinated.
Speaker 2: Yeah, do you want to start with the women or
Speaker 2: should we creshando to the women? Your call?
Speaker 1: I I guess maybe let's go a step back and
Speaker 1: do a little bit of why is grass unique? Okay,
Speaker 1: why is this? Why is this a difficult handicap? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know we have you know, last time we you know,
Speaker 1: talked to Deep Tennis, it was, you know, the finale
Speaker 1: of clay season. Clay season is you know two two
Speaker 1: and a half months long. It even kind of is
Speaker 1: preceded by Indian Wells and Miami Indian Wells very you know,
Speaker 1: very slow hard court. So you have a kind of
Speaker 1: a good sample of you know, player form, uh and
Speaker 1: kind of you know court speed specific form for clay.
Speaker 1: You know, as you head into Roland Garros and then
Speaker 1: everything gets flipped on its head, you know, and the
Speaker 1: entire game is different when you go from clay to grass,
Speaker 1: from rolling Garros to you know, the grass run up
Speaker 1: and the grass run up is extremely compressed. There are
Speaker 1: players who you know, bagged it during clay because they're
Speaker 1: not especially good on that surface, who have come out
Speaker 1: of nowhere and have shown amazing forms so far on grass.
Speaker 1: There are players who you know, you thought were kind
Speaker 1: of putting something together this season who have stepped on
Speaker 1: a grass court and just wildly underwhelmed. And you know,
Speaker 1: I think I tend to try to treat what we
Speaker 1: see in the run up on grass with extreme caution,
Speaker 1: just because there are lots and lots of examples of
Speaker 1: losing quarter bets in my portfolio where we're like, my god,
Speaker 1: did you see how good that guy looked in Halla?
Speaker 1: And then he shows up and loses round one, And
Speaker 1: there's that general sense of success on grass and the
Speaker 1: lead up leading to success at Wimbledon. I don't think
Speaker 1: is surprising because of the compressed schedule, right, A lot
Speaker 1: of the best players don't take it seriously. They literally
Speaker 1: are like, this is too short. As you mentioned, Egas
Speaker 1: played a couple of warm ups. You know, anyone that
Speaker 1: bet on her to win in Bad Homburg for a
Speaker 1: championship is probably like, what the hell like? She's clearly
Speaker 1: the best in that field, not even close. Whatever the
Speaker 1: outright markets were there, she was the right bet. But
Speaker 1: you know, her motivations are a little her motivations are
Speaker 1: a little, a little little different than everybody else's. So
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's the players who have already had
Speaker 1: success this season, who have already won titles, who have
Speaker 1: already gotten points, who have already won money. I don't
Speaker 1: think you can really look at their results and make
Speaker 1: any draw any conclusions. And then the flip side is
Speaker 1: true if you have won a title on grass so
Speaker 1: far on the run up, but you know, you may
Speaker 1: be thinking, man, mission accomplished. You know, I'll go too, Bob,
Speaker 1: and I'll pick up, but I'll enjoy the pomp and circumstance.
Speaker 1: I'll have some strawberries and cream and then you know,
Speaker 1: it's a hardcore season, you know. So it's it's it's
Speaker 1: a little tough to read too much into what you've
Speaker 1: seen the last three weeks. And I'll just say exercise
Speaker 1: some caution. In terms of the game on grass, it's
Speaker 1: different because the rallies are substantially shorter, sets are shorter.
Speaker 1: You know, there's just in general, you know, games are shorter,
Speaker 1: sets are shorter. Hold percentage is substantially higher on grass
Speaker 1: than it is on clay because the speed of the
Speaker 1: surface and because of you know, what it affords certain
Speaker 1: players who have especially strong fast serve or especially good
Speaker 1: placement with their serve. You know, they become quote unquote
Speaker 1: grass specialists just because they're extremely tough to break. Because
Speaker 1: of that, tie breaks, you know, games in a given
Speaker 1: set go up relative to clay. You see a lot
Speaker 1: more a lot higher percentage of tie breaks, particularly in
Speaker 1: sets one on grass relative to any other surface. And
Speaker 1: then as we know specifically look at Wimbledon itself. You know,
Speaker 1: the grass is a living organism and it changes from
Speaker 1: day one to day twelve of this tournament as it
Speaker 1: gets played on and as it gets beaten up, and
Speaker 1: you know, the weather that can you know, the weather
Speaker 1: and the moisture in the air and the heat all
Speaker 1: that definitely tends to, you know, change the overall surface
Speaker 1: speed from you know, from the beginning to the end
Speaker 1: of the tournament. And that's something you got to weave
Speaker 1: in as well. It's different on center court than it
Speaker 1: is on some of the show courts, you know, So
Speaker 1: there is a million moving parts that make this this
Speaker 1: especially difficult and fun handicap. And I think you know,
Speaker 1: just kind of come into this with a little bit
Speaker 1: of a be ready to be surprised by some stuff
Speaker 1: that happens in week one.
Speaker 2: Well, let me get back to that fun comment you
Speaker 2: just made, because in the end you said, oh it's fun.
Speaker 2: You know, part and parcel with everything you just say.
Speaker 2: Because somebody asked me on Twitter this morning during the show.
Speaker 2: They were like, hey, is this your best slam? I
Speaker 2: was like, oh, hey, I didn't say this was up felling.
Speaker 2: Oh hell right, it's not for all the reasons you stay. Also,
Speaker 2: you know, just the data, just the data itself, right,
Speaker 2: there's less of it. And that makes sense because it's
Speaker 2: only like a five week grass court season, so really,
Speaker 2: you know, if I'm doing, if we're doing hard courts,
Speaker 2: I won't just speak for myself. Typically you're looking at year,
Speaker 2: you're looking at six months. Drew is also a guy
Speaker 2: who likes to look at recency Morgan, perhaps others, and
Speaker 2: I think hardcore the numbers are so so predictive. And
Speaker 2: obviously there's different gradations of hardcore too, but generally speaking,
Speaker 2: hardcore numbers are really predictive in a way that grass isn't,
Speaker 2: And so it causes this thing where it's like, if
Speaker 2: you have somebody who's been at this for a long time,
Speaker 2: you can trust those grass numbers but you also if
Speaker 2: you have someone who doesn't have any at all, it's
Speaker 2: not like you can throw them out in the same
Speaker 2: way that you could because you just don't. You don't
Speaker 2: really know in this very truncated thing because you don't
Speaker 2: have as much robust data for others. So I guess
Speaker 2: in the end, the question is use the word fun?
Speaker 2: Is it in the end for you? Or do you
Speaker 2: feel like this is more art than science?
Speaker 1: If you will, Yeah, I know it's it definitely is
Speaker 1: more art, Absolutely I would, And I think your point
Speaker 1: is fair, Like what you have a huge, huge imbalance
Speaker 1: and sample size between players like Patrick Kvitova who have
Speaker 1: played a million grass matches and players like Ego who
Speaker 1: have not, and like coming up with a fair price
Speaker 1: for those two, if that's your final, that's art, it is, yes,
Speaker 1: And I would even say that, like because it's such
Speaker 1: a serve oriented surface. The best bets I tend to
Speaker 1: make a Wimbledon come around the halfway point where you
Speaker 1: get a sense of how good of players serve is
Speaker 1: in terms of just rhythm, Like serve in my mind
Speaker 1: at least is a very hot hand kind of deal,
Speaker 1: right if you're serving with confidence? Yep, you know, you
Speaker 1: you continue to serve well. If you're playing tie breaks
Speaker 1: with confidence, you continue to play tiebreaks well. Like these
Speaker 1: are weird little mental wrinkles that are very much part
Speaker 1: of the art of handicapping on grass. And you know,
Speaker 1: I think, like was remember the Wimbledon that Gabrine Gaberinier one, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: So that one stands out in my mind because coming
Speaker 1: into that she was like what you would have had
Speaker 1: thought fiftieth choice, Like, you know, you hadn't seen anything
Speaker 1: to tell you that that was going to happen, but
Speaker 1: you watched enough of kind of week one from her
Speaker 1: and saw what, you know, what was happening with her
Speaker 1: game that week and the confidence she was playing it,
Speaker 1: and you were like, oh my god, who's beating her?
Speaker 1: You know, like that that type of stuff happens. And
Speaker 1: you know Rebakan the last year, you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't think there were probably people who thought before
Speaker 1: the tournament like, I'm just going to continue to better
Speaker 1: until she wins one, because she ultimately will I have
Speaker 1: confidence in her game blah blah blah. I'm sure people
Speaker 1: did that, but you I certainly didn't see any signal before.
Speaker 1: You know, she showed up and you know, before you
Speaker 1: saw what she was playing with confidence wise, and particularly
Speaker 1: she ousted. Did she oust Ego last year?
Speaker 2: Or was no cornad?
Speaker 1: Did I believe Corny did? Okay? All right, Well, she
Speaker 1: had a couple wins either way. Eating Simone Halp in
Speaker 1: the semi finals is probably the one that stands out then,
Speaker 1: where you know, help was you know, I think she
Speaker 1: was pretty heavy favorite over Bakana in that moment, and
Speaker 1: that was one way match and uh, you know, she
Speaker 1: she wrote that momentum to a title. You don't need
Speaker 1: to really reflect anymore other than that on last year's final.
Speaker 2: But the greatest thing about that final that I will
Speaker 2: always remember is her lack of her lack of a
Speaker 2: reaction when she won the first slam. She was just nonplused.
Speaker 1: She was like business as usual. Yeah, So you know,
Speaker 1: I think, you know, I agree, it's art more than science.
Speaker 1: It's you know, you are stuck with a lot of
Speaker 1: sample sized issues with the data, so that takes you know,
Speaker 1: that levels the playing field a little bit. I don't
Speaker 1: think there's any kind of endboss grass tennis originator out
Speaker 1: there who's coming up with numbers and prices is in
Speaker 1: shaping the market to the way that like even just
Speaker 1: your average show who has been you know, coming up
Speaker 1: with fairs based on some mental model. I don't think
Speaker 1: those type of players are out of the game, whereas
Speaker 1: other services, other tournaments, they definitely are.
Speaker 2: No totally agree this is now. Having said all that,
Speaker 2: the draw came out and there are definitely some lines
Speaker 2: you can draw to bets. And let's start on the
Speaker 2: women's side, because this is more meaty than the men's side,
Speaker 2: which which obviously has Novak Djokovic and Carlos al Karez
Speaker 2: at the top. But on the lady's side. And I
Speaker 2: don't know what your reaction was, but my my reaction
Speaker 2: to the draw was, holy shit, did they make Q
Speaker 2: three and Q four much more densely populated with players
Speaker 2: than Q one and Q two players that can you know,
Speaker 2: have a shot at going deep in this tournament. So
Speaker 2: Q one is the Spia Tech quarter, if you will,
Speaker 2: cassid Keina golf bench, it's there. Q two. I mean
Speaker 2: I already recommended on the shows morning, I have a
Speaker 2: kup dere Matova bet there, you got Pagoula, you got Vekch.
Speaker 2: I know you like Donna vekch Carolyne Garcia is there
Speaker 2: to a lesser extent, Leila Fernandez and Lude Mila Samsonova.
Speaker 2: But then Q three and Q four and I'll just
Speaker 2: leave this for you to come in afterwards. Q three
Speaker 2: has got Jabor Pliskova, kvid of A, Hadad, Maaya Osta,
Speaker 2: Panko and Rebakana, and Q four has got Soakkary keys Andreva, Kurdjikova,
Speaker 2: Alexandrova and Sabalanka.
Speaker 1: Good god, Yeah, I share your sentiment. And when you
Speaker 1: see something like this, it's uh, you know, I would
Speaker 1: qualify it as an imbalanced draw.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: Even though Ega is on the top, the top is weak,
Speaker 1: the bottom is strong, and you I think you correctly
Speaker 1: laid it out. Like my my percentage is for Ego
Speaker 1: to win Q one and Kuda Matova to win Q
Speaker 1: two relative to my percentage for those same players winning
Speaker 1: the title are outsized right right, and so attacking them
Speaker 1: with Q one Q two type of bets as opposed
Speaker 1: to taking them out right makes sense to me. But
Speaker 1: then again, taking them out right and expecting that there's
Speaker 1: going to be chaos on the other side of the draw,
Speaker 1: and you don't know for sure that a you know,
Speaker 1: and especially uh, you know the worst case You know
Speaker 1: that you don't know that the worst case player is
Speaker 1: going to come through, And I don't even know that
Speaker 1: we can sit here and tell you sincerely who the
Speaker 1: worst case player would be for an ego.
Speaker 2: Right, It's exactly right, we don't know.
Speaker 1: I could be it could be uh uh. I would
Speaker 1: say full strength Rebecca probably, yeah, full Strengthbaa, yeah, could
Speaker 1: be Kvitva just because of her you know, experience on
Speaker 1: the surface.
Speaker 2: Actually, I would say it's a toss up between those two.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, I wouldn't entirely rule out Sabolenca if she's
Speaker 1: playing with confidence in her service firing like that's not crazy.
Speaker 2: I'll be honest with you, Drew. I have to keep
Speaker 2: reminding myself that she's a kN tender, Like, I don't
Speaker 2: know what that is about me, but I have I
Speaker 2: have Kavitava and Rebakta. I have the I mean for
Speaker 2: me when I'm just looking at historical numbers, right, Jabor's
Speaker 2: actually great, but she's not in top form. Kvidava's next,
Speaker 2: but like even like Krejikovasakary, kuder Matova, Ostapenko, Like I'm
Speaker 2: just going down the list. You've got Ostapenko and Rebacca
Speaker 2: and Kavidva all in that, Jabor all in that. You know,
Speaker 2: you got a serve bot in Piliskovo, You've got Hadad
Speaker 2: Maya in there. So I mean, I think the answer
Speaker 2: is probably to your question is probably a full strength
Speaker 2: Rebaka and Kovidva. But yeah, if it's I mean, if
Speaker 2: it were a if Ostapenko got there and she was
Speaker 2: just killing, I'd be terrified of her too.
Speaker 1: Sure. Yeah. In a lot of the lead up before
Speaker 1: we saw the draw, I would have told you I
Speaker 1: have a list of twelve women who I have greater
Speaker 1: than two percent chance to win. That's a lot.
Speaker 2: Let's hear that.
Speaker 1: That's a lot.
Speaker 2: That's a lot of players.
Speaker 1: Yeah, ten of them are on the bottom, two of
Speaker 1: them are on the top.
Speaker 2: And the two on the top are taking ku deer Mantova. Correct, yep,
Speaker 2: totally agree.
Speaker 1: That's a huge balance.
Speaker 2: It's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, So what do you do with that?
Speaker 1: I mean, I think basically, if you really had eyes
Speaker 1: for if you specifically have you know, if you already
Speaker 1: have a bed and pocket on you know, on covid
Speaker 1: of a. This was a big old give me a
Speaker 1: break kind of a draw because a ton of the
Speaker 1: equity you've already captured with her form you've seen so
Speaker 1: far this year has kind of been tilted back into
Speaker 1: the ego bucket, which is a bummer, but that's fine.
Speaker 1: You know that the idea of being able to get
Speaker 1: a decent price on covid of A against some of
Speaker 1: these women she's going to have to go through going
Speaker 1: to get a good you know, it'll be a good
Speaker 1: maybe perceived as an interesting matchup against Pushkova in round three,
Speaker 1: a good matchup against your board round four if your
Speaker 1: board gets there. Man, I don't know what's going on
Speaker 1: with her. And then you know, presumably Rebakna in a
Speaker 1: in the quarterfinal like those are that's a that's a
Speaker 1: that's a one two three right there. That's going to
Speaker 1: get you some pretty good rollover type of pricing. And
Speaker 1: then you know sable Anka and the semi finals and
Speaker 1: then again the finals. Like I think a rollover on COVIDVA,
Speaker 1: worst case scenario in terms of who she would face,
Speaker 1: would probably get you in the twelve to fifteen to
Speaker 1: one range. And I think her prices are a little
Speaker 1: shorter than that.
Speaker 2: Little shorter consais you might be able to find a
Speaker 2: twelve to one out there, but.
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, typically shorter. So it's you know, I think
Speaker 1: you have you're gonna have to make some decisions, and
Speaker 1: you actually can be a little bit patient and watch
Speaker 1: a couple of rounds see sort of how you know
Speaker 1: how things are materializing on the bottom, and then kind
Speaker 1: of ride a specific player round by round as opposed
Speaker 1: to outright on the bottom. You know you can get
Speaker 1: but you know, there's always the possibility you wake up
Speaker 1: one morning and Rebacca this out because of illness. Right,
Speaker 1: there's a chance that Jibor gets upset in round one
Speaker 1: or something and then all of a sudden, that section
Speaker 1: of the draw for Kamitova is a lot softer, right,
Speaker 1: So you know, I think there's a little bit of
Speaker 1: ept exercise caution if you're going to look at things
Speaker 1: this way. But I think that's the right way to
Speaker 1: look at it math wise, just because there's you know
Speaker 1: that some of the players we haven't even mentioned that
Speaker 1: are very good or on the bottom. Alexandrova is in
Speaker 1: my twelve for sure, She's got an interesting spot in
Speaker 1: the draw. I really don't know what to make in
Speaker 1: terms of Katchikova right now. But she's shown you enough
Speaker 1: on grass, I think in the run up that and
Speaker 1: enough in this year so far in terms of quality
Speaker 1: of play that Katchikova has to be, you know, in
Speaker 1: the mix. Andreva, I really don't know what to make
Speaker 1: of because she is a total unknown on grass.
Speaker 2: No grass data whatsoever on any tour.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and her outright prices are just wildly unbeddable. There's
Speaker 1: it's nonsense that she's in like the fifty to one range.
Speaker 2: Oh, that's ridiculous. When I was going through Q four,
Speaker 2: I actually I don't know if you caught it. I
Speaker 2: did mention. I mentioned Alexandrova Kjikoba, Andreva. I also mentioned
Speaker 2: soakery and Keys. Socchary's grass numbers are really good and
Speaker 2: we just don't think about her. Could this finally be
Speaker 2: the tournament for her?
Speaker 1: She looks like an out in round three Keys to me, yes, uh.
Speaker 1: And you know, Socchary falls into specific bucket of players
Speaker 1: I just never even really consider because there they consistently
Speaker 1: underperform at the slam level relative to their numbers. Doesn't matter,
Speaker 1: like kind of seems like it doesn't matter. There's some guys,
Speaker 1: guys who fall into that bucket pretty clearly too, that
Speaker 1: we'll talk about, I'm sure, but you know, I kind
Speaker 1: of will pay to see Sokery do it at the
Speaker 1: slam level at this point, the inexcusable that she didn't
Speaker 1: win that Fred Shope and the Chikova won, considering how
Speaker 1: that broke for her. The other name he didn't mention
Speaker 1: in the Q four though, is your French Open finalist
Speaker 1: Carolina Mukhova. Yes, I did not mention your correct Yeah,
Speaker 1: she could. She could pop again, entirely possible. You know,
Speaker 1: she has on record as clay is not her favorite surface,
Speaker 1: and yet there she was in the last two. Actually,
Speaker 1: there she was with a chance to serve it out.
Speaker 2: It's funny, though, you say that, because immediately, like we
Speaker 2: just talked about how you know, with this data, it's
Speaker 2: tough I look at her because my instinct is to
Speaker 2: look at the data, right, and her grass data is
Speaker 2: not that spectacular. But then again, this isn't this isn't
Speaker 2: hard courts, right, this is like, well, do I trust that,
Speaker 2: you know, do I trust her reason form or that?
Speaker 2: And the answer is probably the reason form. If I
Speaker 2: came to you from the future in Q four and
Speaker 2: I said, Okay, Sabalanka didn't win it, Alexandri Kurdjikova, Andreva
Speaker 2: keys Sakari Mukhova who won it.
Speaker 1: Oh man, just seeing what we've seen so far, and again,
Speaker 1: like I'm talking myself into this to a degree, even
Speaker 1: though I cautioned not to overreact to what you've seen
Speaker 1: this year. But Alexandrova's game on Crass has been dynamite. Yes,
Speaker 1: she's got the skill set to pop here. I have
Speaker 1: a little eighty to one in pocket for her. So
Speaker 1: maybe I'm, like, you know, trying to will it to happen.
Speaker 2: Well, no, I mean just to give people a sort
Speaker 2: of a sense. So Alexandrova was supposed to play Codermatova.
Speaker 2: I want to say it was last week and the
Speaker 2: match never happened and one of them decided not to
Speaker 2: play it. But I remember it, yeah, yeah, I remember
Speaker 2: having the over in it. And also it was really
Speaker 2: tightly lined. I think Alexandrova had just beaten Kodermatova. I
Speaker 2: actually was on Kadermatova in that it could have gone
Speaker 2: either way. I think I think money came in on
Speaker 2: Kadermatov as well. But essentially, when we're sitting here, praising
Speaker 2: kader Matova. She just got the benefit of a better draw,
Speaker 2: but Alexandrov was right up there with her.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they played in was it Talkinbosh? I think the final? Wow,
Speaker 1: I would not remember it was Alexandro Vacruiter Mantova, it was.
Speaker 1: It was a draw. Yeah, Alexandrov ultimately won, but it
Speaker 1: was a draw, right, and yeah, she I would say
Speaker 1: that just if you know, again, like what have we seen?
Speaker 1: She's going to be in the mix. Absolutely, She's going
Speaker 1: to be in the third round against Mukova almost certainly,
Speaker 1: and then yeah, god man, what a what a murderer's
Speaker 1: run for her, though Alexandro is gonna have to go
Speaker 1: through Mukova in round three, Sablenka Sabalanka in round four, uh,
Speaker 1: and then somebody awesome in the quarterfinals. Maybe Keys. Keys
Speaker 1: is playing amazingly well, and she's she's the opposite of
Speaker 1: a Sachary, where Keys tends to overperform at the slam
Speaker 1: level relative to the numbers you get from her own tour.
Speaker 1: Although at the same time, like she's deep this week, right,
Speaker 1: she's probably gonna win a winniesborn.
Speaker 2: Yeah, is still alive. She'd be Coco this morning. So
Speaker 2: she's still alive, that's.
Speaker 1: Right, convincingly. Cocoah. Yeah, she's got Coaina in the final tomorrow.
Speaker 2: But this is this is Keys, I mean, like she's again.
Speaker 2: Keys was in a Grand Slam final. I remember she
Speaker 2: lost to Sloan Stevens in twenty eighteen. I want to say, well,
Speaker 2: US Open in twenty eighteen, don't hold me to that year.
Speaker 2: Yeah that sounds right, or twenty seventeen something like that.
Speaker 2: But uh, you know you could see it wouldn't shock
Speaker 2: me if it was like one of these things where
Speaker 2: like later in her career there's a bubble up right
Speaker 2: because of course, yeah, so she's great on these services.
Speaker 2: So I mean, here's what I bet so far, just
Speaker 2: to brass tax it for folks. What I bet on
Speaker 2: the for those who missed it on a numbers game.
Speaker 2: I have an Ega to win it out right from
Speaker 2: many months ago at four to one, she was close
Speaker 2: to four to one all week. Last couple of days
Speaker 2: she's gotten shorter. This draw will make it even shorter.
Speaker 2: But Ega to win it all just because it's my
Speaker 2: reflex in life, like I breathed to better. But I
Speaker 2: also bet a Fiatek Djokovic parlay at bookmaker got plus
Speaker 2: five point fifty on that. I also, though, have a
Speaker 2: Kvidava Djokovic parlay, which is thirteen to one. That's what
Speaker 2: I already have in pocket. I am going to add
Speaker 2: a kavid of An outright. I see a twelve to
Speaker 2: one out there, I'm gonna grab it if it's still
Speaker 2: available after this show, and quarters, hopefully they're available. I
Speaker 2: can't wait to live in a state where it actually
Speaker 2: has legalized sports. But hopefully, hopefully there will be quarters available.
Speaker 2: Because Kudermatova, which I recommended this morning, was at five
Speaker 2: to one, I don't know if it's I think it
Speaker 2: got shorter at four to one after I talked about it.
Speaker 2: Kuder Motova Q two and kvid ofv A Q three
Speaker 2: ultimately at plus three thirty three was the number this morning.
Speaker 2: Even though it is a stacked stacked quarter. I still
Speaker 2: might bet that, but that's what I have. You what
Speaker 2: have you bet so far?
Speaker 1: So I'm holding I am. I'm the same situation as
Speaker 1: you where I'm waiting for quarter prices where I can
Speaker 1: bet them. But I do see I mean IgA at
Speaker 1: evens for Q one one is too many. That's a
Speaker 1: bet by my numbers. Yeah, I think she should be
Speaker 1: about minus one forty five at least. That's you know,
Speaker 1: this is again rap projections. I think she should be
Speaker 1: about minus one forty five kouter Matova. If you got
Speaker 1: her at five to one, it was a great bet.
Speaker 1: Four to one, I still see value my fair there
Speaker 1: is plus three seventy five. And then on the bottom. Uh,
Speaker 1: let's see. I'm surprised Vekic is actually the favorite in
Speaker 1: Q two. Huh huh. Interesting.
Speaker 2: I saw that she is the short shot in Q two,
Speaker 2: which I know you love her. I don't quite understand that.
Speaker 1: I love it's a strong word. No, she's just she's
Speaker 1: just she has she has a uh, she's just got.
Speaker 1: There's enough, there's enough success in signal to not completely
Speaker 1: dismiss her. Certainly, I think you have to stack her
Speaker 1: above the likes of the Pagoulas and the Garcias of
Speaker 1: the world.
Speaker 2: I would agree with.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think kouter Matova and Ega are the
Speaker 1: two quarter plays on the top and then the bottom.
Speaker 1: If you want to take a swing against Rebakana, because
Speaker 1: either she's just not there physically or she may withdraw.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's crazy.
Speaker 2: By the way, just let me just clarify what Drew
Speaker 2: is saying, because some people might not know. Uh sure,
Speaker 2: Elena Rabacchina, who is considered one of the big three
Speaker 2: along with spoutech In Sabolenca, regardless of surface here, she
Speaker 2: pulled out of the French Open, I want to say,
Speaker 2: after round three with a virus just out of the blue,
Speaker 2: and that really Ego was already the favorite, but Rabakkana's
Speaker 2: withdrawal really made her the favorite. That's IGA's surface to
Speaker 2: uh to lose to begin with, but Rabackina has kind
Speaker 2: of been her kryptonite. Seems like the one player that
Speaker 2: IgA sort of can't figure out that virus that she acquired.
Speaker 2: Whatever the virus is. Some people think it's COVID by
Speaker 2: the way, but it has affected her this whole time.
Speaker 2: She had to bullet, she tried. She played a grass
Speaker 2: court tournament earlier. She I can't remember, she get beat her.
Speaker 2: She pulled out of that too, I can't remember, but
Speaker 2: it was really quick, she was in and out and
Speaker 2: it's and it's kind of still affecting her to the
Speaker 2: point where defending her Wimbledon title is not a straightforward
Speaker 2: thing at this point because we don't know what Drew's
Speaker 2: referring to is. We don't know if she's even prepared
Speaker 2: to play at full strength here if she if we
Speaker 2: knew that she was, this is a different sort of
Speaker 2: story here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that's that's fair. She played two
Speaker 1: matches in Berlin. The first she defeated the qualifier Paulina
Speaker 1: kuder Matova, a different couter Matova. There's a v n ap.
Speaker 1: The v is a good one, at least for now,
Speaker 1: I'm sure maybe forever. But the then in round of sixteen,
Speaker 1: Donovecca you got her lost, Donna lost the tiebreak, and
Speaker 1: then six thirty sixty four. Neither of those performances did
Speaker 1: I think Rebaka and I like, she didn't have it right.
Speaker 1: It wasn't obvious to me that she was still dealing
Speaker 1: with it watching those But after the fact she's come
Speaker 1: out and been pretty vocal about how she's not feeling
Speaker 1: one hundred percent. And you know, there's there are a
Speaker 1: lot of videos of her practicing and stuff floating around
Speaker 1: where it's like she just doesn't look like anywhere close
Speaker 1: to the level of player you would have remembered from
Speaker 1: last year's Wimbledon. So yeah, I mean and again like
Speaker 1: the fact that she pulled out so suddenly from Roland Garrow,
Speaker 1: So it just tells you that, you know, she's not
Speaker 1: feeling it. She's going to go, She's going to eject.
Speaker 2: That that ain't that ain't pull it out of this week.
Speaker 2: That's that's a real pullout.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly, exactly, And so yeah, I think the Petra
Speaker 1: three to one, three to one ish for Q three
Speaker 1: is worth a shot because again, like don't understand at
Speaker 1: all where Anstibor's head is at. Like an early exit
Speaker 1: from her would not surprise me. It seems like, you know,
Speaker 1: the just generally the you know, the ghosts of grass
Speaker 1: years past is uh, you know, is affecting her serve
Speaker 1: for whatever reason this year. So Kuvidva could be looking
Speaker 1: at all of a sudden a soft quarter where she
Speaker 1: only really has to get through the likes of Ostapenco
Speaker 1: or Beatrice, and you know, yeah that Q three could
Speaker 1: get a lot softer. Q four is sort of the toughest,
Speaker 1: the pretty clearly toughest for me, and I don't I
Speaker 1: don't mind Alexandrova at ten to one. I make that
Speaker 1: a fair play my Alexandrova. Number four Q four is
Speaker 1: seven five, Okay, so ten to one is a decent
Speaker 1: play for her there.
Speaker 2: I would I agree with every bit of that, Like
Speaker 2: we are so aligned on that that terrifies me because
Speaker 2: now we're.
Speaker 1: Just going yeah, yeah, and.
Speaker 2: I would have to agree with you, even though I'm
Speaker 2: not betting Q four. I would even agree with you
Speaker 2: on the Alexandrova part, likes that's the best value. But
Speaker 2: I'm not betting that, but that would be the best
Speaker 2: value of that group because k Jakova is really a tease. Yeah, yeah, Andreva,
Speaker 2: we have no idea key keys, what's keys number? Q four?
Speaker 1: I'm just curious eight to one?
Speaker 2: Oh, see that. I was hoping that. I was hoping that, yeah.
Speaker 1: There was a there was somebody who is very very
Speaker 1: sharp tennis better who was in the men you know,
Speaker 1: in my you know, we were dming the other day
Speaker 1: and he was like, this keys price doesn't make sense.
Speaker 1: She always platforms well with these slams. She's very lightly
Speaker 1: tested so far, like you know, just in general, like
Speaker 1: what is her fatigue from twenty twenty three? So far,
Speaker 1: it's pretty light. And you can look at that and say, well,
Speaker 1: that's just because she's not going deep in these tournaments.
Speaker 1: She's not playing well, she's slipping, she's aging, whatever, but
Speaker 1: it doesn't change the fact that she's a lot fresher
Speaker 1: than some of these other women who did grind all
Speaker 1: through the clay. Right, Yeah, so.
Speaker 2: Okay, well, let's let's go to the men's side because
Speaker 2: I don't want to I want to get this in now.
Speaker 2: This is not going to be as robust as the
Speaker 2: women's side because Djokovic and Akaraz are at the top
Speaker 2: and they're the only ones in single digits in the outright.
Speaker 2: But it is interesting to look at the quarters, and
Speaker 2: I'm gonna guess Drew and I are not going to
Speaker 2: be quite as aligned on this. Maybe we will be.
Speaker 2: We'll see Q one Alcaaz did I mean it's not
Speaker 2: the easiest at all. I mean, he's got Zverev, he's
Speaker 2: got dem Noor who's got really good grass numbers in there.
Speaker 2: Tfo Rune that's in Q one. So they didn't they
Speaker 2: didn't really do Alcoraz that he favors. In my opinion.
Speaker 2: Q two is Medvedev's Medvedev in Sitzepas's quarter, if you will.
Speaker 2: That features a whole bunch of players that have really
Speaker 2: good recent and non recent grass form, the manner Reinos
Speaker 2: and the Greek spores of the world. Even Serundolo has
Speaker 2: been good on grass round it. You never know. If
Speaker 2: he got his serve going, he's you know, he'd being
Speaker 2: he's basically a serve bot at that point, but he's
Speaker 2: we haven't really seen it quite yet. Tommy Paul is
Speaker 2: a really interesting player in that. Then you got your
Speaker 2: scam Norri, You've got your quarters, you got your Sheltons,
Speaker 2: you got your cresses, and even Andy Murray in there.
Speaker 2: I mean, so it's loaded. So I don't have a
Speaker 2: bet there. I'm curious if you do. Q three's were
Speaker 2: my that would be we'll see if we're a lining there.
Speaker 2: And Q four I'd love to say, it's difficult because
Speaker 2: Rube leven, curios and even a Bublick typer in there.
Speaker 2: But it's jokers, so I can't really make a savings there. Well,
Speaker 2: how did how did it lay out for you? Where
Speaker 2: did you see the bed?
Speaker 1: So whereas the women's draw was clearly imbalanced, the men's
Speaker 1: draw is almost perfectly balanced. There are two people who
Speaker 1: could win this, and one is on the top and
Speaker 1: one is on the bottom.
Speaker 2: If I said to you, if I said to you,
Speaker 2: if I said to you, I agree with you generally,
Speaker 2: but one quarter is slightly easier for the other three.
Speaker 1: What will be well Q four?
Speaker 2: Oh really? Okay?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I don't. I think Joker got an absolute
Speaker 1: beauty here.
Speaker 2: I would have said that. I would have said Q.
Speaker 1: Three Q Well, well, Q three is the weakest, Yes,
Speaker 1: that's what I yes, absolutely, yeah, that that is without question.
Speaker 1: Surely Q three is extremely weak. I guess if you
Speaker 1: were to say winter comes from which quarter and you
Speaker 1: were to price it out, the winner coming from Q
Speaker 1: three would probably be the long shot, and it would
Speaker 1: be substantially the long shot.
Speaker 2: What is what is sinners price to win? Q three?
Speaker 1: Though?
Speaker 2: That's what I want to know.
Speaker 1: Like plus two fifty enough to play? No, no, no,
Speaker 1: not not not with not with what I've seen from
Speaker 1: him this, uh since the French Open, really, I mean
Speaker 1: including the French Open. Really.
Speaker 2: It's interesting because there's an out of form Fritz, Like
Speaker 2: Fritz has the best numbers historically, but he's out of form.
Speaker 2: And then Casparus never caspar Rood's never gotten past the
Speaker 2: second round here.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, talking about he's been playing golf.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's been, and he's going to concerts all around
Speaker 2: the cut Instagram, he's all over the.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's Yeah. The idea that he's in any way
Speaker 1: dialed in or intending to make any kind of noise
Speaker 1: here is pretty pretty far fetched in my mind. The
Speaker 1: middle class. So basically, what you're saying when I and
Speaker 1: we agree in Q three top is is question marks.
Speaker 1: The middle classes not existent, That's right, and so that's
Speaker 1: why then general that that quarter so week. I don't
Speaker 1: hate Fritz at five to one. He's got some ghosts
Speaker 1: from last year too, though people probably very very very
Speaker 1: you know, not very vividly remember the loss to Nadal
Speaker 1: when Nadal had you know, his ab was split and
Speaker 1: he still managed to find a way to beat Fritz
Speaker 1: in that match, and Fritz, uh, you know, lost his
Speaker 1: opportunity at a semi final there and then what Kuriosk
Speaker 1: basically got the walkover to the final.
Speaker 2: That's right, cheated, couldn't go, that's right. Yeah, this after
Speaker 2: you know, the Indian wells where it looked like Fritz
Speaker 2: wouldn't be able to go, and then he beating.
Speaker 1: And Fritz falls into an interesting category of players. Medvedev
Speaker 1: is in this category as well, where they played more
Speaker 1: clay this year than we're used to seeing and I
Speaker 1: played better on clay this year than was expected, and
Speaker 1: then for whatever reason, have completely no shown on grass.
Speaker 2: Well, so have you seen this med Like, I don't know.
Speaker 2: I went to Indian Welles, but you don't have to
Speaker 2: go to a tournament to see this. But Medvedev does
Speaker 2: this thing where he like, uh, he takes serves from
Speaker 2: a mile behind the baseline. Yeah, that's that ship ain't
Speaker 2: working on grass.
Speaker 1: No, that's a nonsense factactic ungrassed. I honestly, he's a
Speaker 1: very very smart guy and very very you know, very
Speaker 1: mentally sharp player. I have no idea why he is not, like,
Speaker 1: you know, talking to coaches or strategists to improve that,
Speaker 1: because that's that is a real, real, obvious, easy to
Speaker 1: fix weakness, weakness. And he has so many of the
Speaker 1: same skill set as Djokovic that it doesn't make sense
Speaker 1: why he doesn't find that, you know, find some form
Speaker 1: on grass and threatening here. I thought maybe it was
Speaker 1: going to come this year after what we saw in clay,
Speaker 1: and it's just has been the opposite. He's regressed from
Speaker 1: what I remember seeing from him in the past. On grass.
Speaker 2: So you got you got no bet in Q two,
Speaker 2: do you?
Speaker 1: I don't mind taking a shot on a bigger number
Speaker 1: there the you mentioned Greek Spoor. He's interesting to me
Speaker 1: at twenty five to one, although he does fall in
Speaker 1: that category of busy, happy to be here after getting
Speaker 1: a title in the Netherlands. This grass run up.
Speaker 2: You know's what's Tommy Paul's number?
Speaker 1: Twenty to one? I was gonna mention, I was just
Speaker 1: gonna mention time call, Yeah, he's there's you know, there
Speaker 1: are a couple of Q two is going to be
Speaker 1: a big number, I think, yeah, And there are actually
Speaker 1: there are a couple of Americans that may end up
Speaker 1: being sort of the the US quarter, right. Cord Shelton,
Speaker 1: Ben Yeah, Ben Shelton's in there, Maxim, Krusty's in the
Speaker 1: uh Krusty has stunk out loud this year. But he
Speaker 1: is a grass player in his It's in his bones,
Speaker 1: it's in his blood. It's everything about the way he
Speaker 1: plays on grass. It is he's built for this. Crusty
Speaker 1: could make a run here. Shelton could make a run here.
Speaker 1: Quorda could you Banks could even He's got a really
Speaker 1: soft little section up there. Going against Scam potentially and
Speaker 1: you know round two. Yeah, so there's there are a
Speaker 1: number of US players that I think could make you know,
Speaker 1: make it to deep into week two coming out of
Speaker 1: I'm talking out of Q two.
Speaker 2: I'm talking myself into a Tommy Paul.
Speaker 1: Drew Twain one is good. Yeah, you know, he's he
Speaker 1: potentially gets he has a he has a qualifier in
Speaker 1: round one who he should get through at worst three one. Uh,
Speaker 1: he gets potentially a qualifier or an out of form
Speaker 1: Melos rounda, the ghosts of roundage still floating around amazing
Speaker 1: in round two and then round three, Francisco Sarundolo, who's
Speaker 1: been lie on grass. Uh yes, Tommy Paul could very
Speaker 1: very very uh uh comfortably get to the fourth round
Speaker 1: of this tournament, and at Medvedev stumbles in round two
Speaker 1: to Saint man A Reno then or in round three
Speaker 1: to Greek Spore, then Tommy Paul could be looking, you know,
Speaker 1: looking at a you know, a quarterfinal here pretty comfortably.
Speaker 1: I feel I don't have it.
Speaker 2: I feel like I have to bring these two guys though.
Speaker 2: So sits APAs who now, by the way, dating Paula Bodosa.
Speaker 2: For those who are curious about such things. We're you're
Speaker 2: not thinking about him in any way, are you.
Speaker 1: No? And if you didn't already know he was dating
Speaker 1: Paul Butdosa, then you're you're doing a very good job
Speaker 1: of staying offline because it's everywhere impossible to miss. Even
Speaker 1: though I don't know who cares about that, but apparently
Speaker 1: a lot of people do enough to, you know, to
Speaker 1: have a lot of social media. Uh, you know, noise
Speaker 1: about that. The the other person, Yeah, he's completely out here.
Speaker 2: The other person I have to bring up is Andy Murray. Yeah,
Speaker 2: who has won this tournament obviously part of the Big
Speaker 2: Four back in the day. You don't think, do you?
Speaker 1: No? No, no, Yeah, there's only two men in this
Speaker 1: straw with oh you know what, I'll give you something fun.
Speaker 1: Only you know, only two men in the draw. One
Speaker 1: Wimbledon joker, Andy Murray. Only one man in the draw
Speaker 1: has ever beaten Novak Djokovic on grass. It is Andy Murray.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Andy Murray. The you know when he did
Speaker 1: it though, it was like twenty fifteen or something. It
Speaker 1: was like good eight eight years ago. But yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know Djokovic's numbers. I feel like we might have
Speaker 1: already covered this on you know, on your show on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: But his grass numbers are absolutely impossibly ridiculous.
Speaker 2: Oh, it's it's ridiculous. He is, he's a good you
Speaker 2: know again, just you can go ahead. I don't want
Speaker 2: to rerupt you, but I've been quantifying it right here,
Speaker 2: just looking. It's he's a good if I if I'm
Speaker 2: doing service points and return points win percentages and I'm
Speaker 2: combining them like, he's a good six seven points clear
Speaker 2: of the field historically. Yes, you know, So it's it's
Speaker 2: not I mean, that's the thing when we talk about
Speaker 2: guys like Djokovic or Ego on clay, it's not hyper
Speaker 2: it's not hyperbolic, right, It's like the numbers just show
Speaker 2: you how can this be? How can this one human
Speaker 2: being be this much better than all of these other
Speaker 2: professional players.
Speaker 1: It's incredible, it really is. And career record for Djokovic
Speaker 1: on grass won twelve one hundred and twelve wins, eighteen losses,
Speaker 1: really eighteen, that is that is rare air. Yeah, he
Speaker 1: has not lost on grass since. Do you want to guess?
Speaker 2: Umm, no, you tell me. I don't want to guess.
Speaker 1: Queen's Final against Maren Chilich in June of twenty eighteen.
Speaker 2: Marinil is not who wanted you open.
Speaker 1: Yes, it has been five plus years since the man
Speaker 1: has beaten Djokovic on grass. He lost to Andy Murray Wimbledon.
Speaker 1: It was actually twenty thirteen, so it has been ten
Speaker 1: years since Andy Murray beat him. His other grass losses
Speaker 1: come at the hands of one Martin del Potro, Roger
Speaker 1: Feeder and Sam Query. You know, all time greats, But
Speaker 1: let me kind of focus on that one and get
Speaker 1: your opinion here. Sam Quarry beat Djokovic in one of
Speaker 1: the most ridiculous upsets I've ever seen on tennis in
Speaker 1: my life. It was in round thirty two at Wimbledon.
Speaker 1: Query at the time had zero pedigree. Was it was
Speaker 1: probably like twenty five fifty to one in that match.
Speaker 1: Djokovic's loss, I would ascribe. I remember in the moment
Speaker 1: thinking this, and nothing since then has changed my opinion
Speaker 1: that he had a big old exhale after he won
Speaker 1: the French Open in twenty sixteen, because that was the
Speaker 1: last career that was the last title he needed to
Speaker 1: close his career slam. And after he wins that twenty
Speaker 1: sixteen French Open, he kind of exhales. He not dialed
Speaker 1: at all into you know, kind of preparing for Wimbledon
Speaker 1: didn't mean as much to him, and I think that's
Speaker 1: kind of how a guy like Query catches him early
Speaker 1: in the tournament. There is a a hair of a
Speaker 1: parallel to this year for him, because he of course
Speaker 1: wins the you know, wins rolling Garos is his twenty
Speaker 1: third slam, which now puts him number one all time,
Speaker 1: top of the mountain. So to the degree that he
Speaker 1: has any exhale and someone could catch him, you know,
Speaker 1: by surprise in this tournament, just because he's not you know,
Speaker 1: dialed in in the normal you know, to the normal
Speaker 1: you know, terminator way. I think is is it's an
Speaker 1: open possibility.
Speaker 2: I hear what you're dealing there. The counter to the counter, right,
Speaker 2: would be, now that he's gotten off the vaccine band slams,
Speaker 2: that he is so keen on grabbing slams, right, and
Speaker 2: he ain't getting any younger either, that that will counter
Speaker 2: the potential lack of focus narrative. That would counter that,
Speaker 2: and he'll be like, no, I want to tie Margaret
Speaker 2: Court here on Wimbledon, which is you know, at Wimbledon,
Speaker 2: which is the one I'm supposed to win, just like
Speaker 2: Ego was supposed to win the French, Right, this is
Speaker 2: the one I'm supposed to win. Let me get to
Speaker 2: twenty four and then let me get to the quarter century,
Speaker 2: and then let me just build a gap. And you know,
Speaker 2: the more he wins, the less Carlos does for future, right,
Speaker 2: because carl is gonna get double digits at one point two,
Speaker 2: So that will obviously, you know, he's he's already ruined.
Speaker 2: He even veteran and Joko and Nadala have already ruined
Speaker 2: a generation of guys getting slams. As John Isner famously said,
Speaker 2: they're just really greedy, you know, So that that will go.
Speaker 2: I think it does beg the question. Now, let's let's
Speaker 2: get to the final. Right, if we get to an
Speaker 2: Alcoraz Djokovic final. You said something interesting on a numbers
Speaker 2: game earlier because you were a you were a Djokovic
Speaker 2: guy at the French as I recall. Yeah, yeah, let's
Speaker 2: say they get to the finals here, Djokovic is going
Speaker 2: to be favored. You actually are going the other way
Speaker 2: you think on this one's.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, price is going to determine a lot, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: if Djokovic looks, you know, a little uninspiring, if his elbows.
Speaker 1: You know, it's concerning if a guy that he has
Speaker 1: no business challenging him challenges him on the run up
Speaker 1: and Alcaz is in absolute dialed in few mode. You know,
Speaker 1: the market may not give us a price to bet
Speaker 1: Alcaaz in the final, But my general sentiment is that
Speaker 1: starting at minus one fifty or whatever he is to win,
Speaker 1: let me see what, wow, minus one seventy three. Starting
Speaker 1: at minus one seventy three to win this title tells
Speaker 1: you that if it is an Alcarez Djokovic final, which
Speaker 1: is again and the most likely outcome by far in
Speaker 1: for this tournament, that's something like greater than fifty percent
Speaker 1: chance that that's what your final is going to be.
Speaker 1: The market is probably going to make it minus four
Speaker 1: hundred d Djokovic plus three you know, plus three twenty
Speaker 1: five three fifty Alcrez, which means betting Alcaz now at
Speaker 1: plus three forty is insane because you can probably get
Speaker 1: that in the final, yes, right, and so you can
Speaker 1: avoid a potential loss where he just no shows in
Speaker 1: some round and somebody catches him on the way there
Speaker 1: and bet him at that time, at that price, when
Speaker 1: in reality there's potentially a narrower gap than people realize
Speaker 1: between Alcoraz and Djokovic on grass. There is a sentiment
Speaker 1: that Alkaz just hasn't played enough grass, he doesn't have
Speaker 1: enough reps, and that's one hundred percent fair like I
Speaker 1: think he has. He has fewer matches on graph than
Speaker 1: Djokovic has losses, even though jok is the winningest player
Speaker 1: of all time agress. That's but you know, I saw
Speaker 1: I definitely saw enough at Queen's from al Krez to
Speaker 1: tell you that he's starting to figure things out. Like
Speaker 1: his strategic approach to grass tennis was very impressive.
Speaker 2: I thought, are you are you worried at all? Obviously
Speaker 2: for those who missed it, what happened at the French
Speaker 2: Open final was this, you know, the most anticipated match
Speaker 2: ever certainly in recent history, and Alcarez just kind of
Speaker 2: tensed up like he just couldn't perform yips. Might one
Speaker 2: might even say, do you believe that that will not
Speaker 2: be the case if they eventually meet here or do
Speaker 2: you worry that we will see some semblance of that
Speaker 2: again and that this will actually like because if that
Speaker 2: happens again we got a problem, right, Oh of course.
Speaker 1: Yeah. And if he's if there's residual you know, mental
Speaker 1: baggage from what happened, then he doesn't really stically stand
Speaker 1: a chance and minus warnered in that moment. For Djokovic's right,
Speaker 1: the my contention would be the pressure was on Alcarez
Speaker 1: in that semi final. It was a minus minus two
Speaker 1: hundred favorite, which.
Speaker 2: Is crazy crazy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it was crazy. In hindsight it was. It
Speaker 1: was ridiculous.
Speaker 2: I even I can't believe even in foresight it was crazy.
Speaker 1: I thought, yeah, yeah, yeah, it was. There was that
Speaker 1: was that was a heaping amount of expectation on not
Speaker 1: the young young on the young man who it just
Speaker 1: doesn't have a ton of uh, you know, just not
Speaker 1: a ton of best of five experience. And for me,
Speaker 1: the way I handicap best of five clay is it
Speaker 1: is like it is a long form chess match. You
Speaker 1: need to be you need to be if you are
Speaker 1: relatively evenly matched with your opponent, you need to have
Speaker 1: some long term strategy about how you ultimately get across
Speaker 1: the finish line. And Djokovic's I thought, was pretty clearly
Speaker 1: on display what he intended to do in terms of
Speaker 1: drawing him out, in terms of making him play the
Speaker 1: you know, trying to make him play some impossible points
Speaker 1: or you know, to get his you know breaks, you know,
Speaker 1: particularly to get that second set. And yeah, the nerves
Speaker 1: I think contributed pretty substantially to the cramping that you saw.
Speaker 1: And that comes along with being the favorite in that
Speaker 1: moment and the expectation that you're going to win your seconds.
Speaker 1: You know that you you win that match, you win
Speaker 1: your you know, your second slam, you take the crown
Speaker 1: from Nadal that everybody is you know, kind of expecting
Speaker 1: you to do. And I think I see this as
Speaker 1: a very very very different, uh you know, kind of
Speaker 1: macro pressure set up right, he's playing with house money.
Speaker 1: If he gets to the final against Djokovic, no one
Speaker 1: is realistically expecting him to win that match. And whereas
Speaker 1: you you know, Djokovic is you know, kind of strategic
Speaker 1: approach to the clay match. I don't think we'll work
Speaker 1: on grass because the points are shorter, and you know,
Speaker 1: just in general, uh, you know, the rate at which
Speaker 1: al krez Is Serve is hitting and his winners versus
Speaker 1: unfourced Arison grass so far from his run of Queen's
Speaker 1: is is wow stuff. I mean it is. It is
Speaker 1: really really, really high level. Djokovic is going to have
Speaker 1: to solve that game in that moment, and I think
Speaker 1: that's going to be a tough, a tough challenge for him.
Speaker 1: You saw in the quarterfinal last year, Djokovic ran into
Speaker 1: an inform Yanick Center and it was a lot of
Speaker 1: the same problems. There was not enough tape, there's not
Speaker 1: enough signal of how do I beat this guy on
Speaker 1: grass that He went into that match with the play
Speaker 1: and that was solid. He went in sort of I'm
Speaker 1: going to figure it out on the fly, and it
Speaker 1: took him until the you know, two and a half
Speaker 1: sets in before he was really kind of able to
Speaker 1: play up to his level against center in that match,
Speaker 1: and he had you know, it comes comes through, you know,
Speaker 1: three to two. Largely, I think his center kind of
Speaker 1: folded it up mentally, which is a center thing to do.
Speaker 1: And you know, alcraz I don't think is built that way.
Speaker 1: And this is a long way of saying, if you
Speaker 1: get three to one on al Kaz against Djokovic in
Speaker 1: Wimbledon final, I will be bucking the kid in that spot.
Speaker 1: And it's not going to be the you know, highest
Speaker 1: confidence play of the year for me, by any stretch
Speaker 1: of the imagination.
Speaker 2: It is not. It won't be your game of the year.
Speaker 1: In other words, yes, no, no, and and and Will
Speaker 1: I be live trading that match and trading out of
Speaker 1: my Alcrez position if he's up to zero entirely possible?
Speaker 1: Is not. It is not a guarantee that I will
Speaker 1: ride that to the finish line. But I think almost
Speaker 1: certainly he's got a puncher's chance, more so than I
Speaker 1: expect the market is going to give us based on
Speaker 1: what we see in the current outright pricing.
Speaker 2: Okay, So on the men's side, do we have bets?
Speaker 2: Are you thinking of making a bet? Or is there no.
Speaker 1: Bet powder dry for that final? Honestly? Okay, I mean yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, I you know, we'll see how this ages.
Speaker 1: But Alcaz's path is tough. For this quarter is more challenging.
Speaker 1: I think you laid that out very fairly. A matchup
Speaker 1: against demon aor in round four is going to be challenging.
Speaker 1: A matchup against didn't even tease like the potential for
Speaker 1: there to be a Carlos versus Rune quarterfinal.
Speaker 2: I mean, I mentioned yeah, I mean there's.
Speaker 1: That would be cool.
Speaker 2: For that, Yeah, Tfo and Rune and then quarter.
Speaker 1: Tough quarter He's going to have to beat at least
Speaker 1: two of those men to get out of there.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: And you know an Alcaz Rune match that you know,
Speaker 1: that's that's popcorn fireworks stuff, Yes it is. That would
Speaker 1: be freaking awesome for a quarterfinal, but by far the
Speaker 1: best potential quarterfinal. There's not even not even anything else close,
Speaker 1: So hoping for that. Ultimately, if Alcraz comes through that,
Speaker 1: I would expect he makes short work of whoever comes
Speaker 1: out of Q two. Hopefully it's you know, the likes
Speaker 1: of a Tommy paul Er big old Price, the old
Speaker 1: Price American flag. It gets to gets to cute, gets
Speaker 1: to the semi finals there and then Alcaz in the
Speaker 1: final against Djokovic would would be my bet in the
Speaker 1: blind we'll see.
Speaker 2: I don't have these bets yet because they're not available,
Speaker 2: but Tommy Paul and Q two and Yonix, I don't
Speaker 2: know if I.
Speaker 1: Want to bet center, what's your read on him?
Speaker 2: I mean again, if I were to do again, we
Speaker 2: do Kelly and I will do sometimes we'll do our
Speaker 2: top rankings he'll do golf, all do tennis. Janick Center
Speaker 2: is the fifth best player in the world all court.
Speaker 2: To me, he's been in every major quarter so far
Speaker 2: already in his career. Never advanced past that, but he
Speaker 2: has had really good results in slams, and he has
Speaker 2: given the benefit of a quarter here. I mean, what
Speaker 2: is it, Fritz Bautista gutten rude, like, I mean, I'm
Speaker 2: looking at his quarter. I'm like, they couldn't have. He
Speaker 2: ain't winning this thing, right, but his quarter, eh, he might.
Speaker 2: I mean, I still trust Ciner more than I do
Speaker 2: the others. And again, historical you know, historical grass numbers
Speaker 2: for Center. Again, combining serve percentage wins and return percentage wins,
Speaker 2: it's like one oh five, which is, you know, not
Speaker 2: quite the elite of the elite, but it's it's top ten,
Speaker 2: you know historically. So he's a he's a solid grass play.
Speaker 2: He doesn't have numbers as high as Fritz does, though
Speaker 2: you know Fritz was informed. I wouldn't be saying this, surely,
Speaker 2: but you know players that have higher numbers than him,
Speaker 2: rune Alcarez, by the way, Barrettini, who were not even
Speaker 2: worth talking about at this point, right, Sasha z Verev
Speaker 2: and obviously Djokovic, so you know, really solid numbers, but
Speaker 2: not like elite. But he just got a really easy quarter,
Speaker 2: so I don't know. I'll see what the number is
Speaker 2: by the time I get to it, and maybe that's
Speaker 2: the play. I wouldn't talk about him if he was
Speaker 2: in any other quarter.
Speaker 1: Though, Yeah, I mean his his loss to Altmeyer at
Speaker 1: Roland Garros was that was painful. That quarter was his
Speaker 1: to lose, and he managed to find a very, very
Speaker 1: uninspiring way to do it. His run up has not
Speaker 1: been especially impressive. Losing to Russovoria and er Togenbash was disappointing,
Speaker 1: and then retiring against Public in hallwe is a is
Speaker 1: a concern because he's a guy that has dealt with
Speaker 1: a lot of bizarro injuries, you know, stuff that you
Speaker 1: can't see when you're watching him play, but you hear
Speaker 1: about it and read about it, and you know they're like, man,
Speaker 1: why was he so off today? And you're like, oh,
Speaker 1: he actually his entire hand is a blister. Oh wonderful,
Speaker 1: Oh cool, glad, I'm glad I knew that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned Public in there too, but Bublic's another guy,
Speaker 2: like if he wasn't in Djokovic's quarter, like he'd be
Speaker 2: an interesting, you know shot if he was in the
Speaker 2: right quarter.
Speaker 1: H yeah, as a long shot. But plus yeah, plus
Speaker 1: he's cursed. You know, he one hallway and you know
Speaker 1: they losing a round one. I don't buy into that
Speaker 1: really at all. I don't think there. I don't think
Speaker 1: there is signal there. And Bublic is a really good
Speaker 1: grass player. I think he got a decent draw. If
Speaker 1: McKenzie McDonald beats him round one, I mean I actually,
Speaker 1: you know what, Ken's McDonald has some wild, weird Wimbledon
Speaker 1: wins on his resume.
Speaker 2: Mcken's and McDonald too. This morning, was just coasting to victory,
Speaker 2: coasting to victory against h Who did he plan?
Speaker 1: I already for the Banks?
Speaker 2: Was he the U Banks guy? Or was that Lloyd
Speaker 2: Harris Harris McDonald's playing Sarundalo. Yeah, he was six six
Speaker 2: two four to one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was beating him convincingly.
Speaker 2: Yeah he's done.
Speaker 1: Lost's amazing, Yeah, amazing.
Speaker 2: So there's that. Okay, Yeah, now here's the thing. We're
Speaker 2: doing this again early morning Friday. So I'd love to
Speaker 2: sit here and say, who do you like in the
Speaker 2: first round but honestly, most of these matches are not
Speaker 2: out yet. From where I'm sitting, you have egos and
Speaker 2: minus three thousand, three hundred and thirty three in her
Speaker 2: match against lynn Ju. You got koder matovakader Matova minus
Speaker 2: one thousand against Kaya Canepy in the first round. That's
Speaker 2: never pleasant, but that's what it ought to be. Kaya
Speaker 2: Cannet be sort of a giant killer sinners minus twenty
Speaker 2: five hundred against one month well Sirundlo. So like you
Speaker 2: said with the kader mattoav was not that Sarundalo the
Speaker 2: other one, and Djokovic the old minus ten thousand against
Speaker 2: the Sene. But really, I haven't I haven't delve in these,
Speaker 2: by the way, Fritz versus Hanfman, Fritz versus Huntsman is
Speaker 2: a pretty interesting first round match.
Speaker 1: Yeah, tough one for him, Yeah, even.
Speaker 2: Though he's a minus four fifty five favorite there. But
Speaker 2: they're not all out at least I'm not seeing all
Speaker 2: of them out. Maybe I'm not looking at the right book.
Speaker 1: No, I'm the same same here. It's weird. It's a
Speaker 1: weird smattering, a weird smattering.
Speaker 2: So not much to say on first rounders, but so
Speaker 2: so the bottom bottom lining it. We're pretty aligned on
Speaker 2: the women's side, certainly on the quarters Fiatek kuder Matova
Speaker 2: one and two. If we knew about Rabakana, we would
Speaker 2: we would figure. But kavitavas our girl in Q three
Speaker 2: generally speaking, and I actually think she has a shot
Speaker 2: to win it all. Q four is the question mark.
Speaker 2: But you do see value the most value in Alexandrov.
Speaker 2: I would agree with that too. And then on the
Speaker 2: men's side, it's it's it's not as robust, but you
Speaker 2: expect the Alkaaz Djokovic final, and you probably depending on
Speaker 2: the price, but if it's the price you're anticipating, will
Speaker 2: be a Carlos guy, and then you'll and then you'll
Speaker 2: manipulate it if you need.
Speaker 1: To, and you're just riding Djokovic.
Speaker 2: Right, I'll be honest with you, I don't. I mean,
Speaker 2: I don't have that bed in pocket yet, but I
Speaker 2: think I will Djokovic to it at all.
Speaker 1: Parlay you said, right, I have the Yes, I have.
Speaker 2: The parlay with the EGA, and I have the parlay
Speaker 2: with Vida, So I don't think I'll take an out
Speaker 2: right on on Djokovic got those in a far away place.
Speaker 2: At book Maker, so those were available there. I don't
Speaker 2: I think Tommy Paul Q two, I think I've talked
Speaker 2: myself into that as my only other thing.
Speaker 1: Do you have a yeah? I like that one. I'm
Speaker 1: with you and if you can get twenty to one there,
Speaker 1: I think that's a fun play. There will be an
Speaker 1: interesting uh interesting somebody comes through Q two. My my
Speaker 1: official predictions all of alcaz over run. In Q one,
Speaker 1: I'll take uh, Tommy Paul over Maxim Kressy. There you go.
Speaker 1: In in Q two, I like, uh, I'll take uh. Man.
Speaker 1: It's tough to it's tough to believe in Fritz, but
Speaker 1: I will take you know who did mention? Who I
Speaker 1: think is going to make an interesting deep runt is
Speaker 1: Quentin Hallie. He's got the he's got the he's got
Speaker 1: the skill set to to do some damage here and
Speaker 1: he's got a nice spot on the draw, so he's
Speaker 1: going to make a deep run. He's a gigantic price,
Speaker 1: so that'll be a fun one. I'll take. I'll take
Speaker 1: the super duper long shot. Quentin Alley's over uh just
Speaker 1: an absolute oh man. That section six is so weak
Speaker 1: always smokes. Quentin Alley's over jeez, man, rude got such
Speaker 1: a soft section and I really did get I bet
Speaker 1: you he's bummed he didn't take this more seriously and.
Speaker 2: He's like, oh my god, I could have won.
Speaker 1: He's like, I could have won. I could have won
Speaker 1: my quarter. Yeah, man, Well yeah, okay, we'll take Calli's
Speaker 1: at the long price in Q three over question Mark,
Speaker 1: and then I like, I'll take Djokovic over Bublik and
Speaker 1: Q four Djokovic in straights to the finals where he
Speaker 1: loses three two to Carlos al Kress.
Speaker 2: He loses three two, and what would have to be
Speaker 2: a classic one.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that would be so good. That would be
Speaker 1: so good. I mean now we're not talking like all
Speaker 1: time like Federer Federer Djokovic in twenty nineteen, but it
Speaker 1: would be that would be a big one.
Speaker 2: What would you say that We'll close with this, What
Speaker 2: would you say are the greatest matches you've ever seen?
Speaker 1: That That Djokovic Federer final that Wimbledon is the number
Speaker 1: one which bullet for me?
Speaker 2: Not the Nadal Federer one where Federer loses and cries
Speaker 2: at the end. No, no really.
Speaker 1: No, no, no, that one. The I mean I like
Speaker 1: that outcome, that was a fun outcome.
Speaker 2: But I interested in Borg McEnroe in eighty one. Could
Speaker 2: I interest you in.
Speaker 1: That wimbled that The Djokovic Federer Wimbledon was that fifth set,
Speaker 1: The high leverage points were like, every one of them
Speaker 1: was emotionally roller coat. It was an emotional roller coaster.
Speaker 1: The Federer not taking the championship points he had was like,
Speaker 1: how is this possible? The quality of the tennis was
Speaker 1: not very good for a lot of that match, but
Speaker 1: the fit set was unbelievable. The quality of the tennis
Speaker 1: was the best and the and the match was the best.
Speaker 1: For the Australian Open final between Federer and Nadal in
Speaker 1: let's say twenty sixteen, maybe for some one was.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting. For some reason when I think of Federer,
Speaker 2: the image that pops in my head for his greatness
Speaker 2: was when he was first winning Australian Opens. We're talking
Speaker 2: like two thousand, don't hold me to the year, but
Speaker 2: like a decade before that, right two thousand and six
Speaker 2: ish somewhere in there, where you just he was doing
Speaker 2: things on a tennis court where you're like, I didn't
Speaker 2: know this was possible, Like the way that he could
Speaker 2: redirect a tennis ball and hit with you know, go
Speaker 2: from defensive to offensive within a point the way that
Speaker 2: he did. I'm like, and that's when McEnroe, even at
Speaker 2: the time, he's like, these guys are better than we were.
Speaker 2: Like that even he was like, that's it, I've seen
Speaker 2: it all. These guys are just incredible and so yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm getting chills just thinking about some of
Speaker 2: these tennis hard oh that we are.
Speaker 1: No, it was twenty seventeen Federer over Nadal went five
Speaker 1: sets at Australian Open. If you have never seen that,
Speaker 1: it was a wild one because Djokovic and Andy Murray
Speaker 1: were clearly the two best players in the world going
Speaker 1: into that tournament, but they had played so much and
Speaker 1: so long in twenty sixteen, deep into that season and
Speaker 1: played each other so many times that they were both
Speaker 1: just totally broken physically. Meanwhile, Fedder and Nadal had taken
Speaker 1: like a huge amount of time off to like fully recover,
Speaker 1: and Istaman beat Djokovic in that tournament. I think Milos
Speaker 1: Mischa Zvere beat Andy Murray, which opened the door for
Speaker 1: a Veederan Nadal to get to that final and no
Speaker 1: one and people were literally like, is Fedder ever going
Speaker 1: to play, you know, at a high level again. He
Speaker 1: came in as a seventeen seed.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe for a little while longer. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he made that final, beat stan Ververrinka in five
Speaker 1: sets in the semis, played in Nadal in the finals,
Speaker 1: and that was This was one where you remember how
Speaker 1: like you remember how important challenges used to be. They're
Speaker 1: not at all really anymore. Like, for whatever reason, challenges
Speaker 1: are like not really part of the game. People are
Speaker 1: just kind of like, yeah, well we believe in hawk
Speaker 1: I announced, We're just kind of accept the result. Challenges
Speaker 1: used to be extremely important. And this was when like
Speaker 1: that fifth set was decided by like the narrowest margins
Speaker 1: on points I've ever seen, and like literally it was
Speaker 1: like was that in or out? I couldn't see it
Speaker 1: by eye. They challenge it and it was literally like
Speaker 1: in by a millimeter, out by a millimeter, and that
Speaker 1: was like the margins that decided that match between those two,
Speaker 1: and it was that was extremely memorable. So that it
Speaker 1: was the most amazingly my favorite.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to me, it's the most amazing thing in sports
Speaker 2: like tennis at the highest level. You cannot compare it
Speaker 2: to me, mentally physically, it's just incredible. And that's the thing.
Speaker 2: Like I've said this before. I don't know if I've
Speaker 2: said on air, but like I remember, I went to
Speaker 2: a high school that was that was considered a pretty
Speaker 2: big tennis powerhouse high school. And I remember that, you know,
Speaker 2: we had a guy that ended up playing number one
Speaker 2: single at UVA Virginia, number one singles at Navy. And
Speaker 2: I remember when the tour was in DC, you know,
Speaker 2: three four years later when they were finishing college. I
Speaker 2: remember asking when I was, oh, so you go on
Speaker 2: pro and they just laughed at me. Right, They're like,
Speaker 2: get killed. Those guys are so much better than right, Like,
Speaker 2: it just the levels that keep getting higher and higher.
Speaker 2: It's impossible. And then when you get to the gods, right,
Speaker 2: like the notion that someone like Sasha Zverev, you know,
Speaker 2: has never won a Grand Slam and he can he
Speaker 2: can never get over the hump with the gods. They're
Speaker 2: so much better than he is. Imagine. So yeah, it's incredible.
Speaker 2: Last thing, because I just thought of one more thing.
Speaker 2: I lied if someone's listening and saying, okay, how many
Speaker 2: bets typically does just Drew have on the in the
Speaker 2: first round daily at Wimbledon. Is there a do you
Speaker 2: is there is there a pad answer to that? Or
Speaker 2: is it just how the numbers shake out?
Speaker 1: No, I usually keep it. I usually try to cap
Speaker 1: it at like seven, so he caps it at seven.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's so many, there's there's so much, there's
Speaker 1: so many like, yeah, I don't have a strong reason
Speaker 1: for that other than like I am a person in
Speaker 1: tennis that I want to put eyes on the matches
Speaker 1: that I bet because I want to know why, if
Speaker 1: I can even figure out why I was right or wrong,
Speaker 1: because that definitely influences future pricing. Like if you got
Speaker 1: lucky in one, you want to know why, you know
Speaker 1: if you if you if you got unlucky and lost,
Speaker 1: you need to know. And so, you know, it's tough
Speaker 1: to get that granularity of coverage because form an eye
Speaker 1: test matter to me a lot, and beyond just having
Speaker 1: a number that you think is fair when it comes
Speaker 1: to tennis, because it's a one v one sport and
Speaker 1: you know, if you can pick up like the nuances
Speaker 1: of a player, form injury, things like that by watching it,
Speaker 1: then you kind of have to I think to.
Speaker 2: Really, I'm glad that we brought this up because I
Speaker 2: I'd never talked to you about that. I too, like
Speaker 2: in a first round of a slam, I will have
Speaker 2: up to six, but once I get to six, it's
Speaker 2: the same thing that you just talked about. I also
Speaker 2: start to feel like I should add more humility, right
Speaker 2: Like if I thought, I think to myself, if I
Speaker 2: think I have an edge in six matches, maybe I'm
Speaker 2: fooling myself kind of thing, like don't go any higher
Speaker 2: than that, because then you're then you're then you're lacking
Speaker 2: a humility in your numbers kind of thing. I don't
Speaker 2: know if that makes sense. That's that kind of how
Speaker 2: my process it. I'm like, Okay, maybe I'm not that smart,
Speaker 2: you know.
Speaker 1: Let mean, maybe it's it's funny too to contrast it
Speaker 1: with like the NBA, because like we could go through
Speaker 1: a week in the end of January and I could
Speaker 1: have twenty five bets in the NBA and I maybe
Speaker 1: didn't watch a game.
Speaker 2: Interesting, Well that's Jason.
Speaker 1: I just assume. I assume I'm going to be able
Speaker 1: to get it out of my number, like I misassume,
Speaker 1: like if I was right or wrong, I can test
Speaker 1: and test it with the data that I've got to
Speaker 1: come up with my fares. It's not that easy to
Speaker 1: do that with.
Speaker 2: Us, Jason and I Jason Wangar, and we're just talking
Speaker 2: about that with baseball this morning. But for an entirely
Speaker 2: different reason. We're just like he's like I have a
Speaker 2: play on the Nationals versus the you know, another FACCTA team,
Speaker 2: and he's like plus one and fifty nine. And I
Speaker 2: always say, because you are not required to watch this
Speaker 2: baseball game, because like I could sit through that, you
Speaker 2: know kind of thing. Drew appreciate it, man, We're less
Speaker 2: than forty eight hours away. I thank you sincerely, man,
Speaker 2: Thank you.
Speaker 1: For tho as a ton of fun and best of luck.
Speaker 1: And I'm sure, I'm sure we'll revisit the men's side
Speaker 1: before it's all said and done. But you know, the
Speaker 1: important thing is is the women's tournament, you know, and
Speaker 1: you're coming up with fairs, I think on the front
Speaker 1: end because it's going to be really good.
Speaker 2: Going to be really good. We'll talk on the radio
Speaker 2: side this week. Drew Dinsick, Everybody, I Whale Underscore Capper
Speaker 2: Deep Dive at NBC Sports Bet the Edge podcast. Thank you, Drew,
Speaker 2: appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Man Ahi, best luck.
Speaker 2: Best luck to you as well on all your Wimbledon bets.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening.
Speaker 1: Yeah Banda Banks, Batan Batada sat band Taba