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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power here
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Speaker 2: News Live. Simple as that you'll be with us here
Speaker 2: in the studio. One week from today. We will be
Speaker 2: talking to you at this time from Chicago and what
Speaker 2: will be day one of the Democratic National Committee, the
Speaker 2: convention of course for Kamala Harris and Tim Walls, and
Speaker 2: we're going to talk more about that, what role Joe
Speaker 2: Biden will play on this night a week from now,
Speaker 2: and what role protesters will play. This some pretty interesting
Speaker 2: out there showing that tens of thousands of pro Palestinian
Speaker 2: protesters could be in Chicago even with the change at
Speaker 2: the top of the ticket. And with that change, we're
Speaker 2: waking up again today to new questions about Kamala Harris's agenda.
Speaker 2: We don't have much of one, a skeleton of an agenda,
Speaker 2: if not what we saw in the Biden administration. And
Speaker 2: it's interesting as well to see the agenda form on
Speaker 2: the Trump side. What kind of a world are we
Speaker 2: in here where jd. Vance is promoting expanding the child
Speaker 2: tax credit and Kamala Harris is parroting Donald Trump on
Speaker 2: ending taxes on tips. So that's where we're going to
Speaker 2: start here. This is the one thing we can hold
Speaker 2: our hands on, right with a couple of exceptions. Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris already said that she would support an independent FED
Speaker 2: and so forth, but this is specific. When I'm president,
Speaker 2: we will continue our fight for working families of America,
Speaker 2: including to raise the minimum wage there's one. And eliminate
Speaker 2: taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers. There's two.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump, by the way, says, hey, wait a minute,
Speaker 2: that was my idea. He rolled it out in June,
Speaker 2: and at that time we talked to Mark Goldwin, Senior
Speaker 2: Vice President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,
Speaker 2: who had crunch numbers on this, finding that ending taxes
Speaker 2: on tips would add a couple of one hundred million dollars,
Speaker 2: if not more, to the deficit. He's with us right
Speaker 2: now to talk about this. I should say billion. By
Speaker 2: the way, live on Bloomberg Radio, Mark Goldwine, it's great
Speaker 2: to have you from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Speaker 2: Did your eyes roll when you heard about this one
Speaker 2: from Kamala Harris? Now both presidential candidates are calling for this.
Speaker 3: I mean, the tip for tat here is amazing. You know,
Speaker 3: it just seems like Biden wants a child tax credit.
Speaker 4: So now JD.
Speaker 3: Fance was bigger child tax credit. Donald Trump says no
Speaker 3: taxes on tips, So Kamala Harris says no taxes on tips.
Speaker 3: Who's going to pay for all of this?
Speaker 2: That's what I'm going to ask you now, because if
Speaker 2: there isn't a plan to offset that, it would result
Speaker 2: in about two hundre billion dollars in deficit spending based
Speaker 2: on your calculations, right.
Speaker 4: That's right.
Speaker 3: We think the Harris plan, and they've given us some
Speaker 3: more details, including that it's income tax only. But we
Speaker 3: think that Harris plan to exempt tips from taxes and
Speaker 3: raise the minimum wage would cost between one hundred and
Speaker 3: two hundred billion dollars. That's real money, and if there's
Speaker 3: not a plan to pay for it, it's going straight
Speaker 3: to the credit card.
Speaker 2: Okay, if you put that together with the other one here,
Speaker 2: the expanded child tax credit. JD. Vance is suddenly promoting
Speaker 2: this and I'm not sure he talked to the boss
Speaker 2: about this one, because Republicans have been pushing back pretty
Speaker 2: hard on Capitol Hill with every time the Biden administration
Speaker 2: proposed doing this. What would that also mean for deficit spending?
Speaker 4: Right? So, the current chow tax credit two thousand dollars.
Speaker 3: Some Democrats have been talking about raising it to three thousand,
Speaker 3: even thirty six hundred in some cases. Vice President cho
Speaker 3: candidate Vance has now said five thousand dollars. That five
Speaker 3: thousand dollars, depending on design, that could be another two
Speaker 3: to three trillion dollars over the next decade.
Speaker 4: That again, like that.
Speaker 3: Makes our two hundred billion look small, even though two
Speaker 3: hundred million is already massive.
Speaker 2: This is incredible. So without a way to pay for these,
Speaker 2: we add to the deficit no matter who we elect,
Speaker 2: and therefore potentially increase inflation while we're at it. Am
Speaker 2: I right?
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know.
Speaker 3: One of the ironies is the idea of the child
Speaker 3: taxpert is to help children, But how much are you
Speaker 3: really helping children if you're burning them with all this
Speaker 3: new debt, Like, who is going to pay this back?
Speaker 4: It's going to be higher taxes on future generations.
Speaker 2: Spending time with Mark Oldwine at the Committee for a
Speaker 2: Responsible Federal Budget, the knock on the Harris campaign Mark
Speaker 2: has been no real agenda, no real details. What does
Speaker 2: the committee want to hear?
Speaker 3: Well, it's only been a few weeks, so I'm looking
Speaker 3: forward to the convention and hoping that we'll get some
Speaker 3: more details there. But what we want to do is
Speaker 3: have a full plan from Donald Trump and a full
Speaker 3: plan from Kamala Harris, and then we will score those plans.
Speaker 3: That's what we've done in every other election, and so
Speaker 3: far we're not there in this one.
Speaker 2: Well, give us a sense of what she's required to
Speaker 2: tell us. What it is that we're actually asking about here.
Speaker 2: You want a tax proposal, I'm sure more broadly than
Speaker 2: taxes on tips or a child tax credit. You want
Speaker 2: her to weigh in on the twenty seventeen Trump tax
Speaker 2: cuts that are set to expire in the term of
Speaker 2: whomever becomes president next. What else do you want to know?
Speaker 2: What should we be listening for?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 3: So, what I really I want to know her agenda,
Speaker 3: but what I especially want to know is her solutions.
Speaker 3: As you mentioned, we have tons of tax cuts expiring
Speaker 3: at the end of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 4: I want to know what she's.
Speaker 3: Going to do about them, and I want to what
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is going to do about them. We have
Speaker 3: three major trusts Funds, Highway, Medicare, Social Security, all hurdling
Speaker 3: towards insolvency. I want to know how she's going to
Speaker 3: address that. We have a debt limit that's about to
Speaker 3: come back and we need to raise it. We have
Speaker 3: discretionary spending caps that are going to expire. I want
Speaker 3: to know how she's going to solve all these problems.
Speaker 3: I also want to know what she's going to do
Speaker 3: about our massive debt and interest payments.
Speaker 4: Interest costs this year will.
Speaker 3: Be larger than Medicare, larger than Defense, our second largest
Speaker 3: government program. That's just not sustainable, and I want to
Speaker 3: hear how President Trump and how Vice President Harris are
Speaker 3: going to turn that around.
Speaker 2: Well, you know we're going to want to hear from
Speaker 2: you when we learn more. Mark, It's great to see
Speaker 2: you and thank you for the reality check as ever.
Speaker 2: Mark Oldwine, Senior, Vice President, the Committee for a Responsible
Speaker 2: Federal Budget here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio
Speaker 2: and on YouTube. Just coming off of this interview with
Speaker 2: Joe Biden, a lot of folks are wondering what it
Speaker 2: is he might say a week from tonight at the
Speaker 2: Democratic National Convention. It's clearly going to be a passing
Speaker 2: of the baton the torch, whatever cliche you want to
Speaker 2: reach for. He did talk about it with CBS News
Speaker 2: the headline on the terminal, Biden says he dropped out
Speaker 2: due to risk he'd be a distraction. Interesting listen to
Speaker 2: the President speaking with Bob Costa on CBS.
Speaker 5: Folse we had showed that it was neck and neck
Speaker 5: race down on the wire. But what happened was a
Speaker 5: number of my Democratic colleagues and the House and Senate
Speaker 5: thought that I was going to hurt them in the races,
Speaker 5: and I was concerned if I stayed in the race,
Speaker 5: that would be the topic you'd be in interviewing about.
Speaker 5: Why did Nancy Pelosi say? Why did some it? And
Speaker 5: I thought it would be a real.
Speaker 2: Distraction, a distraction the President of the United States, a
Speaker 2: distraction from his own election. Of course, he was looking
Speaker 2: down ballot I presume when he said that, and it's
Speaker 2: one of the many things I want to talk about
Speaker 2: with Kevin Walling. It's been way too long since he's
Speaker 2: been with US Democratic strategist, former surrogate of course, for
Speaker 2: Joe Biden the twenty twenty race. He's back on it
Speaker 2: now with Kamala Harris. Kevin Walling, welcome back to Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: It's good to see you. I want to ask you
Speaker 2: about the convention. I've got a lot of things that
Speaker 2: I want to talk to you about, Kevin. But of
Speaker 2: all the people we're going to talk to you and
Speaker 2: hear from today on Bloomberg, I will venture to say
Speaker 2: that you know Joe Biden more than any of them.
Speaker 2: And I wonder your thoughts on this as he's trying
Speaker 2: to go through the motions, trying to emotionally, of course,
Speaker 2: to deal with this decision that he's now billing himself
Speaker 2: as a distraction. What did you make of that?
Speaker 6: Yeah, Joe, good to be back and good to be
Speaker 6: with you. I think you're seeing the president in real time,
Speaker 6: still processing some of the emotions with regards to his
Speaker 6: decision not to seek reelection. He took some time off
Speaker 6: this weekend gathering with family. Your right to point out
Speaker 6: just a week from today, it's going to be actually
Speaker 6: kind of the Joe Biden Knight at the convention in Chicago,
Speaker 6: so there'll be a number of tributes to the president.
Speaker 6: He will obviously have a speaking role on Monday night
Speaker 6: and kind of kick off the convention, and to your point,
Speaker 6: passed the baton to his number two, to his running mate.
Speaker 6: And in that conversation he had on CBS, he talked
Speaker 6: about being a transitional president, a transitional leader, something that
Speaker 6: he talked about early on in his term, then wanted
Speaker 6: to run for reelection, and then through a discernment process,
Speaker 6: realized that, you know, Donald Trump, to him is an
Speaker 6: existential crisis to this country. And we've seen, you know,
Speaker 6: just in the past couple of weeks with the rollout
Speaker 6: with the Harris Waltz ticket, that you know, their best
Speaker 6: positioned to take on the former president.
Speaker 2: When he says I thought it would be a real distraction,
Speaker 2: you can almost tear Nancy Pelosi in that remark, Kevin,
Speaker 2: and I wonder if that just underscores the idea that
Speaker 2: it was not so much his own election he was
Speaker 2: thinking about. It was all the House races, all the members,
Speaker 2: all the Democratic front liners who were looking at him
Speaker 2: asking for him to step aside.
Speaker 6: Yeah. I mean the president at the end of the
Speaker 6: day as a team player and cares deeply about his legacy.
Speaker 6: He knows, you know, if the House and the Senate
Speaker 6: were to become totally in Republican control and the former
Speaker 6: president to come back, most of his legacy would be
Speaker 6: washed away with the Republicans in control. So this is
Speaker 6: a guy, you know, forty years in the Senate, eight
Speaker 6: years as Vice president, four years as president, you know,
Speaker 6: who served with any number of these individuals, both in
Speaker 6: the House and the Senate, and I think really cares
Speaker 6: deeply about the bench and making sure that Democrats not
Speaker 6: just the win the presidency, but are successful down ticket
Speaker 6: in a way that's contrasting with the former president who
Speaker 6: really seemingly only cares about his own election and not
Speaker 6: being the best kind of surrogate for you know, down
Speaker 6: down ballot races.
Speaker 2: Well, take us to Chicago, Kevin, We're all going to
Speaker 2: be there together, DNC. A lot of questions about the
Speaker 2: form this is going to take. I'll ask you about
Speaker 2: the element of protesters in a minute. There's some troubling
Speaker 2: reporting on that this morning. But Joe Biden's going to
Speaker 2: open this convention. That's going to be the sort of
Speaker 2: passing of the baton, maybe literally on the stage in
Speaker 2: front of the delegates in Chicago. How high should our
Speaker 2: expectations be for Kamala Harris to outline a detailed agenda
Speaker 2: by the time we leave Chicago.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think she's certainly going to. And that's what
Speaker 6: the convention is all about, not just in terms of,
Speaker 6: you know, putting our two front folks front and center,
Speaker 6: in terms of, you know, making it issues of character
Speaker 6: and experience, but also laying out a vision. And you're
Speaker 6: starting to see the Vice president talk about key aspects
Speaker 6: of her agenda, right. So she talked about lowering the
Speaker 6: cost of prescription drugs in addition to all the drugs
Speaker 6: that they've done over the last three and a half
Speaker 6: years with the Biden administration, making housing more affordable. You
Speaker 6: brought up Joe and the outset taking a line from
Speaker 6: Donald Trump in terms of taxes on tip to tip
Speaker 6: workers in Nevada that she previewed before that crowd of
Speaker 6: twelve thousand folks. So we got to not forget that,
Speaker 6: you know, she just became, you know, the nominee officially
Speaker 6: just last week, and will continue, I think, to roll
Speaker 6: out each of these policy prescriptions. She also talked about
Speaker 6: some of her positions on the border and immigration in
Speaker 6: that speech outside Phoenix last week as well, teasing some
Speaker 6: of the elements of that signing on to that bipartisan
Speaker 6: border bill that we had that reformed asylum laws and
Speaker 6: things like that. So as this process goes forward, she's
Speaker 6: going to outline a lot more for her policy prescriptions,
Speaker 6: and certainly that will be on displaying Chicago.
Speaker 2: Well, I wonder how worried you are about this event
Speaker 2: being interrupted, Kevin. There is reporting this morning that just
Speaker 2: because there's a change the top of the ticket, Joe
Speaker 2: Biden is not going to be the nominee, pro Palestinian
Speaker 2: protesters will be out in force, in fact large numbers
Speaker 2: next week, tens of thousands, is with the Washington Post
Speaker 2: reports creating scenes of fury and dissent. It says, in
Speaker 2: a moment when Democrats will be working to project unity.
Speaker 2: A coalition of Muslim and Arab American grass roops groups
Speaker 2: lived based in the Midwest, have sent a letter to
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris outlining what it would take to win back
Speaker 2: their votes, including a plank in the party platform calling
Speaker 2: for a permanent ceasefire, Kevin. They're not going to get that.
Speaker 2: So what are these protests going to look like?
Speaker 6: Well, as we saw you know, Vice President handle protests
Speaker 6: in Michigan last week, you know, kind of when they
Speaker 6: were trying to shout her down, I think she pretty
Speaker 6: effectively managed that situation. She was the first, you know,
Speaker 6: senior administration official to call for a seas fire. Got
Speaker 6: some grief from different aspects of my party being so
Speaker 6: outspoken on that front. So, as she said in that
Speaker 6: event in Michigan, I don't know why you're protesting me
Speaker 6: go after Donald Trump that wants to bring back a
Speaker 6: Muslim band for example, that would never sign onto a ceasfire,
Speaker 6: who stands lockstep with Bebe in terms of the current
Speaker 6: situation on the ground in Gaza. So you know, we'll
Speaker 6: see these protests. Chicago is obviously set for that. I
Speaker 6: think you know, in conversations with the convention team, they
Speaker 6: continue to extend the perimeter of that with an eye
Speaker 6: towards security. These people have every right, obviously to express frustration.
Speaker 6: But you know, as the Vice President said, focus your
Speaker 6: frustration on where the actual issues are, and you'll see
Speaker 6: that she's much more lockstep in terms of calling for
Speaker 6: the ceasefire and trying to work and bring an end
Speaker 6: to the Hamas Israel war than we've seen, you know,
Speaker 6: from the other side.
Speaker 2: Kevin, I have to ask you before you leave us
Speaker 2: as a Capital D Democrat, what went through your mind
Speaker 2: when you heard JD Vance make the rounds on Sunday
Speaker 2: morning calling for an expanded child tax credit.
Speaker 6: Yeah, listen, I love you know. I'm a Catholic, so
Speaker 6: you know I believe in converts. So we're happy to
Speaker 6: have you know, JD Vance, you know, touting our line.
Speaker 6: I'll note that his voting record doesn't line up for
Speaker 6: what he's actually calling for. I think he actually missed
Speaker 6: the vote to extend that childhood tax child tax credit
Speaker 6: serving in the Senate. So you know, words speak, you know,
Speaker 6: less louder than actions here. But certainly you know, if
Speaker 6: you're looking for a pro family party, that's the Democratic Party.
Speaker 6: It ain't these attacks on IVF and other things that
Speaker 6: jd is trafficking in.
Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting JD. Vance. He likes Lena Khan, he
Speaker 2: wants a higher minimum wage, and an expanded child tax credit.
Speaker 2: Maybe he should talk to Kamala Harris about getting those
Speaker 2: done to have them on board. It's just, you know,
Speaker 2: maybe nothing matters. Kevin. It's good to see you. I'll
Speaker 2: meet you in a week, Okay in Chicago. Thanks for
Speaker 2: being back with us as always, Democratic strategist former Biden
Speaker 2: surrogate in twenty.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can
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Speaker 2: Here in New York at World Headquarters. Yes, indeed, the
Speaker 2: fastest show in politics is on the road here. Kaylie
Speaker 2: will join us about twenty minutes here in the studio
Speaker 2: as well as we carry on our conversation on a
Speaker 2: campaign that is going to bring its focus to X Tonight,
Speaker 2: we just got another post, I say tonight. Apparently this
Speaker 2: is an all day affair. Donald Trump posted on what
Speaker 2: most people still call Twitter for the first time in
Speaker 2: about a year a short time ago to talk about
Speaker 2: the campaign. He posted a campaign video whatever, But we
Speaker 2: just got a new one. Now it's an image. It
Speaker 2: looks like kind of a wrestling promo or something. Donald J.
Speaker 2: Trump and Elon Musk live on X remember the big
Speaker 2: interview tonight eight pm Eastern. He writes, enjoy just one word,
Speaker 2: Enjoy exclamation point, and we probably will. Genie Shanzano and
Speaker 2: Rick Davis were taking the phone off the hook starting
Speaker 2: at eight o'clock tonight. We do wonder how well this
Speaker 2: is going to work, knowing how these have gone before.
Speaker 2: This is a Twitter spaces or an x Spaces thing
Speaker 2: like Elon Musk did with Ronda Santis. Now we've got
Speaker 2: a whole pile of polls to go through, and I
Speaker 2: want to hear from the panel on that. But since
Speaker 2: we just got this drop, Genie Shanzano, I know, is excited.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, Political science professor, Ioni University, Rick Davis partner,
Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital, also Bloomberg Politics contributors. Happy Monday. Great
Speaker 2: to see both of you, hear Genie, eight pm Eastern time.
Speaker 2: What is going to happen on X? Is Donald Trump
Speaker 2: going to endorse evs or something? How does this go tonight?
Speaker 7: I think it could be anything. You know, they're going
Speaker 7: to be hoping to your point that they don't have
Speaker 7: a repeat of what happened to poor Ron DeSantis when
Speaker 7: he did that. But you know, I think this is
Speaker 7: an indication that we've seen actually for the last few
Speaker 7: weeks that the campaign really feels like if they can
Speaker 7: target this small group of under fifty men who don't
Speaker 7: get their news from traditional news organizations. They're described sometimes
Speaker 7: as low information voters, gamers and others that people like
Speaker 7: he went and talked last week with Aiden Ross that
Speaker 7: these will be the people who can put him over
Speaker 7: the edge in this campaign, and they are very narrowly
Speaker 7: focused on this group. So we've had them upset about
Speaker 7: the Rogan endorsement of R of K, which he took
Speaker 7: back the Aiden Ross interview, and now tonight Elon Musk,
Speaker 7: I think it's just a continuation of where they feel
Speaker 7: they can pick up this support and start to turn
Speaker 7: this thing around where they've had a bad few weeks.
Speaker 2: Now, Rick, I don't know your thoughts on this as
Speaker 2: a campaign tool, but let's be honest, an endorsement by
Speaker 2: Elon Musk is a pretty big deal. This is one
Speaker 2: of the most famous people on the planet. Does he
Speaker 2: bring too much baggage for it to help?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 8: He does divide the room. I mean, there's no question
Speaker 8: that there's a lot of dissent in amongst the world
Speaker 8: domestic politically around Elon Musk. He puts himself out there.
Speaker 8: He's sort of veered toward the right all year long.
Speaker 8: He's been a topic of scorn and also inspiration to
Speaker 8: hundreds of thousands of people. He's even claimed he's gonna
Speaker 8: deliver just under a million votes for Donald Trump. That's
Speaker 8: powerful stuff, and he's got the financial means to do it.
Speaker 8: The question is who does he turn off in the process.
Speaker 8: I mean, sure, matth is, politics is addition and subtraction.
Speaker 8: So in addition to trying to target these voters that
Speaker 8: GINI was just talking about, what are you losing in
Speaker 8: the process, because these are tough acts to follow us literally,
Speaker 8: suburban women, goodbye to the Republican Party again for another cycle.
Speaker 8: They've found somebody else that can speak their language. And
Speaker 8: then how deep does it go? How far out in
Speaker 8: the experts do you get, you know, losing votes while
Speaker 8: getting them in the rural areas.
Speaker 2: We've got a couple of important polls out they dropped
Speaker 2: over the weekend. They don't all agree, and I'm curious
Speaker 2: to get both of your impressions on them, because we
Speaker 2: spent the last two weeks talking about a honeymoon, and
Speaker 2: now we can put numbers on some of these. We
Speaker 2: had the Bloomberg Swing State pole showed them statistically tied
Speaker 2: in the seven swing states. Now Sienna is out with
Speaker 2: its Swing state pole, Harris at fifty percent to Trump
Speaker 2: at forty six percent among likely voters. That's important, not
Speaker 2: just registered, are likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Speaker 2: Now we can talk all day long about the headline numbers,
Speaker 2: but there's something specific here, and Genie, I'll start with
Speaker 2: you that argues with what we're seeing in the new
Speaker 2: FT poll. The Financial Times worked with the University of
Speaker 2: Michigan Ross School. Also it's in Kamala Harris's favor on
Speaker 2: the headline, but they found as well that there's disagreement
Speaker 2: among voters on who to trust when it comes to
Speaker 2: the economy. The Econ pole on the ft looks good.
Speaker 2: The Siena poll, however, finds that voters still prefer Donald
Speaker 2: Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle
Speaker 2: the economy as well as immigration. Genie, how are you
Speaker 2: dissecting all of these.
Speaker 7: Numbers, Yeah, it was difficult to make sense of the
Speaker 7: ft Pole in conjunction with what we've seen throughout the campaign,
Speaker 7: and of course the latest New York Times Sienna Pole
Speaker 7: and on the issue of the econ me. Overall throughout
Speaker 7: this campaign, pre Harris and now post Harris, the Republicans
Speaker 7: and Donald Trump have had a strong advantage, So I
Speaker 7: would not suggest that she has turned that around. This
Speaker 7: may be an indication that the numbers are moving in
Speaker 7: her direction, that she is doing better on the economy.
Speaker 7: She is not as tied to Joe Biden's economic record
Speaker 7: in the mind of likely voters as as he was
Speaker 7: specifically responsible for, So numbers may be moving in her direction.
Speaker 7: But I think it's really premature to say she is winning,
Speaker 7: certainly on this economic numbers. The reality is those issues
Speaker 7: economy and immigration favor the Republicans and Donald Trump. The
Speaker 7: problem is he doesn't have the discipline to talk about
Speaker 7: those and that's where the rub is. I mean, we
Speaker 7: even heard that in the Wall Street Journal editorial the
Speaker 7: other day. Can Can he be disciplined enough to talk
Speaker 7: about these issues which favor him. Still, if he continues
Speaker 7: with these sort of meltdown diet tribes on truth, social X,
Speaker 7: and on these rallies about everything except issues, then he
Speaker 7: is going to lose this middle of the road that
Speaker 7: he needs in these some of these swing states on
Speaker 7: these issues. And that's maybe what could be driving down
Speaker 7: his numbers. There are probably more, to the point driving
Speaker 7: up per numbers.
Speaker 2: Rick before the weekend, most of the polls showed and
Speaker 2: remarkable in its own right, Kamala Harris essentially tying up
Speaker 2: this race statistical tie, making up for the gap that
Speaker 2: Joe Biden was showing in the polls. Do you believe
Speaker 2: these new numbers showing her actually taking a lead in
Speaker 2: such a small period of time.
Speaker 8: You know, I don't get hung up on the actual number,
Speaker 8: you know, I see these as directional signals, and She's
Speaker 8: got some pretty good directional signals, and they're all pointing up.
Speaker 8: And literally, ever since Donald Trump's speech at the Report
Speaker 8: Looking Convention, his directional signals, pulling wise, have been pointing down.
Speaker 8: So this is where the Democrats want to be going
Speaker 8: into their convention. This is a fully scripted event in
Speaker 8: about a week. So the assumption is they'll punch through
Speaker 8: even more positives than they have today, maybe get a
Speaker 8: buck bump in the convention, which means you're rolling in
Speaker 8: a labor day with those directional signals pointing up for
Speaker 8: the Democrats a critical period of time to start that campaign.
Speaker 8: You know, you have to count this as a you know,
Speaker 8: toss of a coin election right now. And I would
Speaker 8: say on the economy, what was interesting about that Financial
Speaker 8: Times poll that I read was that sixty percent of
Speaker 8: the people pulled thought that Kamala Harris needed to take
Speaker 8: a different direction than Joe Biden's economic policy.
Speaker 4: And what you're.
Speaker 8: Probably seeing is this idea that Kamala Harris is sort
Speaker 8: of people are writing what they want on her right now.
Speaker 8: They don't really know much about her sense of specific
Speaker 8: metrics on issues, so they're willing to give her a chance,
Speaker 8: right and I think her speech at the Democratic Convention,
Speaker 8: which will be the next time tens of millions of
Speaker 8: people see and hear her, is going to be her
Speaker 8: opportunity to either make that good for them, in other words,
Speaker 8: be able to appeal to the broadest section of America
Speaker 8: she can, or start to take people off of that
Speaker 8: list of folks who kind of are sitting on her
Speaker 8: ballot right now wondering who she's all about.
Speaker 2: Really interesting, Rick, because Kamala Harris says this week she
Speaker 2: will roll out a more comprehensive economic agenda, So presumably, Genie,
Speaker 2: we're going to get that before the convention. There'll be
Speaker 2: a lot of reporting on it over the weekend going
Speaker 2: into day one on Monday, and that's when we're really
Speaker 2: going to learn how fragile this lead is because we're
Speaker 2: adding actual policy positions to her candidacy. But the other
Speaker 2: side of this convention, Genie, could be a very difficult
Speaker 2: one when it comes to protests. The Washington Post today
Speaker 2: reporting tens of thousands are still expected even without Joe
Speaker 2: Biden at the top of the ticket. In fact, a
Speaker 2: coalition of activists, Muslim and Arab American groups based in
Speaker 2: the Midwest have sent a letter to the Vice president
Speaker 2: outlining what it would take to win back their votes.
Speaker 2: They include demands that are clearly not going to be met,
Speaker 2: like changing the party platform to call for an immediate
Speaker 2: and permanent cease fire. What are we in for. You're
Speaker 2: going to be there, We'll all be there a week
Speaker 2: from today. How much will these protesters change.
Speaker 4: The DNC, you know, I don't.
Speaker 7: Obviously they're not going to get that on the platform
Speaker 7: for the DNC. I think this is a test for
Speaker 7: the DNC and for the Harris campaign, and quite frankly
Speaker 7: Harris herself. How does she manage this? I think she
Speaker 7: really does have to speak her truth to these to
Speaker 7: these protesters and say where she stands on this issue.
Speaker 7: We saw her do a little bit of that after
Speaker 7: her meeting with Benjamin and Yahoo. I think we're going
Speaker 7: to see her do more of that, and I think
Speaker 7: we're going to see her resort to the argument she
Speaker 7: made the other day at the rally when they interrupted her,
Speaker 7: which was, if you want to elect Donald Trump, then
Speaker 7: go ahead, because he is even further against the positions
Speaker 7: they're at than she is. So she is going to,
Speaker 7: I think, keep with those messages. But it certainly will
Speaker 7: be a test, and I think Democrats have to hope
Speaker 7: this isn't a repeat of nineteen sixty eight. There's no
Speaker 7: suggestion at this point there will be, but this is
Speaker 7: where they are at and they have to be ready.
Speaker 7: And to Rick's point, this is a scripted event, so
Speaker 7: they should have this under control in the venue it's
Speaker 7: going to be outside where we hear a lot more
Speaker 7: about this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll meet you there. Rick, What would you advise
Speaker 2: the candidate to do in this case? Do you take
Speaker 2: the hard line? Do you continue to say no, let
Speaker 2: me talk if you want to fit this problem, I'm
Speaker 2: your only hope because Donald Trump will make it worse.
Speaker 2: Or does she invite them into the room, have a
Speaker 2: sit down, try to welcome them to the party.
Speaker 8: What would be your approach, Well, you kind of hope
Speaker 8: a lot of that is that sort of sitting down
Speaker 8: is happening now, right You want to preempt this as
Speaker 8: much as you can, and then if they show up,
Speaker 8: they show up. But right now, I would think it's
Speaker 8: smart on her part to have some leaders from her team,
Speaker 8: you know, sitting down with these groups and you know
Speaker 8: they want to argue, they want.
Speaker 4: To make a case.
Speaker 8: That's great, Just do it peacefully, do it and assign locations.
Speaker 8: Don't you know, harass delegates, don't harass the media. You know,
Speaker 8: get it as contained as you possibly can, and then
Speaker 8: and then don't give it much Brooke, I mean, honestly,
Speaker 8: the performance that you want reported is on the inside,
Speaker 8: not the outside of that convention. Hall, and and if
Speaker 8: they make it interesting enough, they'll get their share of eyeballs.
Speaker 8: And and the reality is I think that that the
Speaker 8: student protests at the end the last semester really wore
Speaker 8: out the American public, right.
Speaker 4: There wasn't a whole lot of you know.
Speaker 8: Kind words for these folks who held up people's graduations,
Speaker 8: tore up school buildings, you know, and made a mockery
Speaker 8: of a lot of the rules and regulations governing speech
Speaker 8: at these famous universities. So I don't think there's a
Speaker 8: lot of good will for them going into this thing.
Speaker 8: They they're they're they're they're very vulnerable to having this
Speaker 8: backfire on their movement, and I would think that they
Speaker 8: should consider that before, you know, basically trying to disrupt
Speaker 8: a Democratic convention that, as we've all been saying, makes
Speaker 8: no sense if you look at the politics, who's more
Speaker 8: likely to bring a ceasefire to the Middle East? Donald
Speaker 8: Trumper or the Biden administration. Look, we could even see
Speaker 8: a cease fire between now and the Democratic Convention, So
Speaker 8: all of this could even change. But again, I mean,
Speaker 8: you know, you've got to be positive if you're the
Speaker 8: Democrats and run your own convention.
Speaker 2: Well, that's a great point. A lot of things could change,
Speaker 2: including this expected retaliatory strike against Israel by Iran. There
Speaker 2: is reporting on that as well as Lloyd Austin, the
Speaker 2: Defense Secretary, orders the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to
Speaker 2: the Middle East, speeding up the Abraham Lincoln the aircraft
Speaker 2: carrier to get to the area. With a strike still
Speaker 2: expected this week, that could be the backdrop of the
Speaker 2: convention that we're talking about starting a week from today.
Speaker 2: By the way, the big Donald Trump Elon interviewed tonight.
Speaker 2: Shares of DJT down five percent. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 9: No matter where we are.
Speaker 10: Joe, We've obviously been tracking carefully all of the headlines
Speaker 10: coming out of the Middle East, as Israel is still
Speaker 10: a waiting retaliation from Iran for the killing of to
Speaker 10: leaders of Iranian proxies. And then of course there's also
Speaker 10: the questions around ceasefire talks, which allies would like to
Speaker 10: see happen later on this week. We just got a
Speaker 10: statement out from the National Security Council here in the
Speaker 10: US that says President Biden today spoke with France, Germany,
Speaker 10: Italy and the UK to discuss the situation in the
Speaker 10: Middle East and ongoing efforts to de escalate tensions and
Speaker 10: rese ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza.
Speaker 2: Important update here, Kaylee, this is ahead of talk starting
Speaker 2: on Thursday. Is the idea that everyone, at least so
Speaker 2: far we think might be at the table. Hamas has
Speaker 2: been suggesting. It will not have a representative there, But
Speaker 2: how you have this at the same time as this
Speaker 2: impending retaliation from Iran is remarkable that has not gone away.
Speaker 2: Reports today suggest that this is still in the works
Speaker 2: and could in fact happen within days. Kailey, Defense Secretary
Speaker 2: of Lloyd Austin now ordering more assets into the region,
Speaker 2: the USS Georgia that's a guided missile submarine. We've also
Speaker 2: got the Lincoln Aircraft Carrier Strike Group said to be
Speaker 2: speeding up its voyage to the area. The end of
Speaker 2: this week is going to be remarkable, and that's going
Speaker 2: to be the backdrop for our convention in Chicago next
Speaker 2: week when I say we were all going and it's
Speaker 2: going to be quite a conversation that we have at
Speaker 2: that point. So before we get to the stalwarts, you know,
Speaker 2: Joe Wisenthal's coming in here. If this is one of
Speaker 2: the benefits, remember he sends one tweet and then we'll
Speaker 2: have like this is going to be the most listeners
Speaker 2: we've ever had. Nick Wadams is with us in Washington
Speaker 2: right now, of course, leading our national security team. With
Speaker 2: the headlines on Israel and Iran, Nick, it's great to
Speaker 2: have you. Are we going to see possibly both of
Speaker 2: these happen this week, a ceasefire and a retaliation.
Speaker 11: Well, that is definitely the question everybody wants an answer to.
Speaker 11: I mean, I think these two things are actually linked
Speaker 11: in the sense that the Biden administration and allies are
Speaker 11: hoping to get more momentum around the idea of a
Speaker 11: ceasefire in part to try to head off that Iranian attack.
Speaker 11: The idea being that if they can show Iran and others, look,
Speaker 11: there is a credible possibility that we could get this
Speaker 11: thing buttoned up by the fifteenth, when they're supposed to
Speaker 11: be a new round of talks for the seasfire that
Speaker 11: that may in some ways deter or shape the Iranian response.
Speaker 11: If you can basically make the argument, hey, listen, an
Speaker 11: Iranian response an attack on Israel will scuttle the chances
Speaker 11: for the ceasefires. So obviously Iran feels that it's compelled
Speaker 11: to attack Israel. Though Israel has not taken credit for
Speaker 11: the killing of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran. But
Speaker 11: these two things are very much connected. We're all waiting
Speaker 11: to see what happens next.
Speaker 10: Well, and the question I have listening to you, Nick,
Speaker 10: is the other party that needs to agree to the
Speaker 10: ceasefire is Hamas, which is an Iranian proxy. So if
Speaker 10: Iran doesn't want the ceasefire to be agreed to so
Speaker 10: that they can retally against Israel, why would Hamas say, Okay,
Speaker 10: we're on board, here's your hostages.
Speaker 11: Well, yeah, I mean it's a great question because we're
Speaker 11: always trying to figure out who exactly has the influence
Speaker 11: and to what degree Iran is actually shaping this thing.
Speaker 11: I mean, you know, I think it's just also the
Speaker 11: death of Ismaeil Haniya a couple of weeks ago really
Speaker 11: upended the whole power structure. I mean, one thing we
Speaker 11: really have not been able to get to the bottom
Speaker 11: of anyhow is how much either side really wants to
Speaker 11: have this ceasefire because their goals, as we've talked about
Speaker 11: so many times before, seem to be so opposite. Hamas
Speaker 11: wants Israel out of Gaza for good. Israel wants Hamas
Speaker 11: no longer to exist. So it's very unclear where you
Speaker 11: find an actual resolution when the two sides demands are
Speaker 11: so opposite. But I think what you're seeing here really
Speaker 11: is a sense that what the US and Allies want
Speaker 11: is listen, let's just pause the fighting, get this thing
Speaker 11: to stop for a little bit, try to ease some
Speaker 11: of the pressure out of this situation, avoid the s
Speaker 11: into a bigger war, and then we can figure out
Speaker 11: what happens next. So many big challenges over the long term,
Speaker 11: but in the short term, what you really are seeing
Speaker 11: is just let's just get the guns to be silent
Speaker 11: for the time being and then kick the can down
Speaker 11: the road a little bit.
Speaker 2: Nick, we have to ask you about Ukraine while you're
Speaker 2: with us. Just in our last moment here, massive evacuations
Speaker 2: in the Cursk region of Russia. As of course Ukraine continues,
Speaker 2: this incursion across the border. Vladimir Putin is sending reinforcements.
Speaker 2: What is this going to turn into? Are they in
Speaker 2: fact moving the border in the process.
Speaker 11: Well, I mean a lot of questions about the Ukrainian
Speaker 11: motivation here, But obviously if they are able to hold,
Speaker 11: to occupy, and then crucially to hold that Russian land,
Speaker 11: that's not something that they're going to be able to
Speaker 11: do for a very very long time, presumably given the
Speaker 11: number of forces they actually have. But whether that would
Speaker 11: be some sort of a bargaining chip when you do
Speaker 11: start thinking down the line about the possibility of negotiations,
Speaker 11: a little bit of like, hey, you took some of
Speaker 11: our land, Now look at us, We've got some of yours.
Speaker 11: It gives Ukraine a little bit of leverage, a little
Speaker 11: bit of something to trade. Obviously, a big shock for
Speaker 11: Vladimir Putin makes him look very very bad, looks like
Speaker 11: he's not totally in control. Certainly something that gives a
Speaker 11: little bit of an advantage to the Ukrainians.
Speaker 10: All Right, Nick Wadams, who leads our national security coverage
Speaker 10: in Washington, thank you so much. As always, Obviously, President
Speaker 10: Biden keeping himself apprised with this phone call today of
Speaker 10: what's happening in the Middle East, surely what's happening with
Speaker 10: Ukraine and Russia as well. But Joe, he's also gearing
Speaker 10: up for later this week to actually appear beside his
Speaker 10: vice president now Democratic nominee on Thursday in Maryland to
Speaker 10: talk specifically about the economy and bringing costs down for people.
Speaker 10: This is something we're hearing Harris talk more and more about.
Speaker 2: I guess a preview of Monday. He's going to be
Speaker 2: speaking the first night of the convention, Kailey. This will
Speaker 2: be the first time we see them together though on
Speaker 2: a stage, even as they've been both talking around this
Speaker 2: incredible that we've seen. He sat down with CBS News
Speaker 2: over the weekend, Joe Biden suggesting he left because he
Speaker 2: was becoming a distraction, presumably down ballot. And she's been
Speaker 2: asked about fed independence, whether she would continue the line
Speaker 2: of independence that we heard and saw, of course from
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. Every time we talked to Jared Bernstein, we
Speaker 2: joke about it, or be like Donald Trump, who would
Speaker 2: like to be basically setting interest rates himself.
Speaker 12: Yeah, Well, he said that at mar A Lago.
Speaker 10: He thinks the president should have a role in setting
Speaker 10: monetary policy. He had just said that at the end
Speaker 10: of last week. Obviously, the Vice president thinks differently about this.
Speaker 10: And someone who's thinking always differently or not is Joe Wisenthal,
Speaker 10: who is here with us in New York. He's co
Speaker 10: host of Bloomberg's Odd Loot Odd Lots podcast, also the
Speaker 10: Way Stalwart.
Speaker 11: Here from the other side of star Wart.
Speaker 2: We can't get you on the Sherwood lest we come
Speaker 2: to New York.
Speaker 9: I'll come down sometimes. Irritation, all right, I will call
Speaker 9: it any time you want me to call in. But
Speaker 9: I'm thrilled to be here.
Speaker 2: So cool, I r O.
Speaker 9: You guess, well, what do we talking about?
Speaker 12: We were talking about this.
Speaker 10: In our morning editorial meeting. Does the voter care about
Speaker 10: FED independence or is it just us sitting in this room?
Speaker 9: And there are many FED independence voters, even on Wall Street.
Speaker 9: I mean, I'll say a couple of things about this.
Speaker 9: One is that you know, there is a widespread consensus
Speaker 9: internationally among economists that economists or that economies benefit when
Speaker 9: there is an entity that is not directly directly politically sensitive,
Speaker 9: that the FED share doesn't have to stand for re election,
Speaker 9: et cetera. There is a view that you know, countercyclical
Speaker 9: monetary policy is good, particularly when inflation gets too high.
Speaker 9: I mean, you see this look right like, so right
Speaker 9: now we're at a period where inflation has come down
Speaker 9: a lot. But you know, the talking point that both
Speaker 9: of you mentioned is the idea of cutting taxes on
Speaker 9: tip to workers right now. Now economists would say, when
Speaker 9: the economy is doing really well, that is not a
Speaker 9: good time to cut taxes. That's an accelerant. It's the
Speaker 9: exact opposite. But no one wants to talk about that,
Speaker 9: or no one wants to do that. That's difficult politically
Speaker 9: to do. There was the comment that I believe Trump
Speaker 9: also made about ending taxes on Social Security, which is
Speaker 9: essentially another you know, it's a tax cut, it's more spending,
Speaker 9: et cetera. Again, probably not the type of thing you'd
Speaker 9: necessarily want to do when the inflation is as high
Speaker 9: as it's been. All that being said, Trump had some
Speaker 9: decent instincts about monetary policy. Many people would say he
Speaker 9: was right, particularly in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen during some
Speaker 9: of the tightening cycle, and in fact Powell himself had
Speaker 9: to walk back some of the cuts prior to COVID.
Speaker 9: So you know, there is a sense in which Donald
Speaker 9: Trump seems to have some pretty good instincts about where
Speaker 9: the economy is, what's necessary at the time, but fundamentally changing.
Speaker 9: You know, who has a say in interest rates setting?
Speaker 9: I think many people consider it to be a fairly
Speaker 9: radical idea.
Speaker 2: He's sitting down with Elon Musky. Yeah, did you see
Speaker 2: that's like a wrestling ad that they put up here.
Speaker 9: Yeah, so he's been gone other than so he last
Speaker 9: year he tweeted his photo of the mugshot. Yes, he's
Speaker 9: been disappeared from Twitter. First sold. It's kind of amazing.
Speaker 2: DJT stock is down five percent. Now, yeah, that's an earthshaker,
Speaker 2: it is.
Speaker 9: Because that's like the one thing that truth social had
Speaker 9: going for was the.
Speaker 2: One guy posts. So what what are we in for here?
Speaker 2: Are you compelled by this sort of uh pairing of personalities?
Speaker 2: Is their policy? Here? Does the Elon Musk endorsement mean
Speaker 2: a lot to somebody who does who cares about it?
Speaker 9: We'll see. I mean, look, both Trump and Musk have
Speaker 9: their sort of cults of personality, so to speak, and
Speaker 9: they obviously dovetail ideological on a lot of things. You know,
Speaker 9: it's an interesting it's an interesting choice. Is it a
Speaker 9: vote getter or a dial mover? You know what I
Speaker 9: will say, though, there is something about Twitter specifically that
Speaker 9: I believe is very influential in the media. And it's
Speaker 9: the sense that like reporters, and I'm guilty of this myself,
Speaker 9: like we see stories, things that people talk about on
Speaker 9: Twitter more than any other platform, become things that we
Speaker 9: write articles about, two podcasts about, et cetera. And there's
Speaker 9: no there's no escaping that fact that. So I don't
Speaker 9: think like Twitter itself is a medium that like changes votes,
Speaker 9: but Twitter itself, I do honestly believe changes what the
Speaker 9: media will cover. And so therefore I think if you
Speaker 9: want to influence reporters, which I think is important for
Speaker 9: both candidates, if you want to influence reporters, it makes
Speaker 9: a lot of sense to be active on Twitter.
Speaker 12: So we're still calling it Twitter to be close.
Speaker 9: Oh yeah, what happened this old school?
Speaker 2: What happens on this is the one that I was
Speaker 2: trying to call it x too, and now everyone's.
Speaker 9: You know what's funny is I think During uh Trump's
Speaker 9: trial in Manhattan last year, Trump's legal team objected to
Speaker 9: a juror who still called it twitter, which I know
Speaker 9: was really interesting and they were probably right to because
Speaker 9: I feel like the sort of like Elon Musk fans
Speaker 9: like they're really quick to like switch from Twitter to X.
Speaker 9: Where's the old school? People were like, we're going to
Speaker 9: keep calling it twitter. So when that potential Jersey, No,
Speaker 9: I still call it twitter. The Trump lawyers are like, no,
Speaker 9: he's out.
Speaker 12: Well, I also am curious.
Speaker 10: I think we all remember what happened when Ron DeSantis
Speaker 10: launched his presidential campaign over spaces and it was.
Speaker 12: Didn't go very well.
Speaker 10: And I noted Elon Musk tweeted last night X posted exit.
Speaker 9: Yeah, no, that's the problem.
Speaker 12: The verb still feels like tweet.
Speaker 10: But he said he's doing scaling tests ahead of this
Speaker 10: thing because you potentially break the system.
Speaker 12: Again.
Speaker 9: No, And that was a disaster because then they had
Speaker 9: other folks like the VC David Sachs was on that
Speaker 9: call and he was getting interrupted like, probably the worst
Speaker 9: way to introduce your campaign, imaginable.
Speaker 2: That's saying a lot on the platform.
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's right, that's right.
Speaker 2: I spent a lot of money on who cares about
Speaker 2: this election right now? In the financial world because we
Speaker 2: keep hearing analysts tell us that nobody pays attention until
Speaker 2: we come back to the beach and the kids go
Speaker 2: to school. But I feel like Joe, people are paying
Speaker 2: closer attention than ever earlier.
Speaker 9: Well, what I would say is it felt like nobody
Speaker 9: was paying attention at all of the election until the debate,
Speaker 9: and I feel like the debate mark basically day one
Speaker 9: of this election. You know, it's a really good question
Speaker 9: because if you took if you take Trump's at his
Speaker 9: words seriously about what he wants to do, there's some
Speaker 9: pretty big implications for the economy. I'm thinking particularly on
Speaker 9: tariff policy specifically, which he takes seriously. It's one of
Speaker 9: the things that in the twenty sixteen he talked about tariffs,
Speaker 9: and he kept his promise. You know, politicians don't always
Speaker 9: keep their promises. He did introduce new tariffs.
Speaker 2: He believed Joe Biden kept this promise.
Speaker 9: But if you look at like the market, does it
Speaker 9: look like we're about it's like enters some major escalation
Speaker 9: of a trade war. I don't really see it. So,
Speaker 9: you know, one of the questions seems to me is like, well,
Speaker 9: why isn't the market more anxious about you know, I'm
Speaker 9: not even saying bad or good. I'm just saying potential changes.
Speaker 9: There's still kind of hard. It's hard to see the
Speaker 9: fingerprints on the election, so or you know, at this
Speaker 9: point in twenty sixteen, everyone's like in the twenty sixteen cycles,
Speaker 9: like we're all watching the Mexican peso, right, and like
Speaker 9: when Trump's polls would go up and the paco would
Speaker 9: go down, et cetera. It's not obvious to me looking
Speaker 9: at this market that there's like some clear Trump trade
Speaker 9: that has emerged.
Speaker 10: Well, that's just because everybody's trying to figure out if
Speaker 10: the Fed's gonna cut by twenty five that's right, the
Speaker 10: next month, right, data so important, Yeah.
Speaker 9: And everyone's looking at the short term and the what
Speaker 9: is happening with the state of the labor market. But
Speaker 9: there's not some clear basket of stocks or something that
Speaker 9: seems to be directly like toggling related to what happens
Speaker 9: in this election, at least as far as I've seen.
Speaker 2: Well, that's honest, what do we get after this thing tonight?
Speaker 2: He endorses EV's and does Elon must work with the
Speaker 2: UAW or something that does. He He's gonna complain about
Speaker 2: the unions. That's why he hasn't been invited to the
Speaker 2: White House.
Speaker 9: It's so right, it's it's really funny. I don't know
Speaker 9: there was a comment, because you know, Trump made a
Speaker 9: comment in his speech recently saying, oh, he likes evs,
Speaker 9: he owns an EVA and in part because Elon musk endorsement.
Speaker 9: It's so refreshing to hear a politician talk like that
Speaker 9: in some way, because we're not really supposed.
Speaker 2: To, like be honest.
Speaker 9: Yeah, you're not really supposed to say like, well, this
Speaker 9: person endorsed me, so now I'm gonna say good things
Speaker 9: about their product or their industry, et cetera. We know
Speaker 9: that Trump has been really critical of electrification. He's talked
Speaker 9: about all the problems it's going to cause, and he's
Speaker 9: talked about if we have electric trucks, then they're not
Speaker 9: going to be able to The weight that bridges can
Speaker 9: stand is not going to be enough for them. Some
Speaker 9: interesting points. It'll be interesting to hear if EV's specifically
Speaker 9: come up.
Speaker 2: Amazing, he landed the plane just like that. I thought
Speaker 2: with podcasts you just talked there's no outtime ever, like
Speaker 2: we have noil On Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Kaylie, we should talk more about what's happening in Israel
Speaker 2: right now. Of course, we have the potential at this
Speaker 2: moment for a cease fire with Hamas this week. We
Speaker 2: also have the potential for a new war between Israel
Speaker 2: and Iran, or at least a retaliatory strike. Joe Biden
Speaker 2: was talking about it in that CBS interview we discussed
Speaker 2: in which he referred to him is a distraction. That's
Speaker 2: why he left the presidential race. He also talked about
Speaker 2: the chances of a ceasefire emerging in Israel. Here's what
Speaker 2: he said.
Speaker 5: The plan I put together, endorsed by the G seven,
Speaker 5: endorsed by the Uman Security.
Speaker 1: Council, etc.
Speaker 5: Is still viable and I'm working literally every single day
Speaker 5: too and my whole team to see to it that
Speaker 5: it doesn't escalate into a regional war, but it easily can.
Speaker 12: So it easily could escalate.
Speaker 10: And that's the other complicating factor in this Joe that yes,
Speaker 10: they want to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas,
Speaker 10: which is a proxy of Iran, and yet the threat
Speaker 10: of Iran is still very much hanging over Israel, as
Speaker 10: an Israeli military spokesperson just delivered a televised statement moments
Speaker 10: ago saying that they are at the highest state of alert.
Speaker 10: So for more on this, we bring in down Natasha Hall.
Speaker 10: She a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at
Speaker 10: the Center for Strategic and International Studies. So Natasha, were
Speaker 10: really on watch for two things this week that theoretically,
Speaker 10: at least to me, would seem that they would counter
Speaker 10: act each other or they contradict each other to a
Speaker 10: certain extent, reaching a ceasefire agreement, which would be cooperation
Speaker 10: between Israel and Hamas. At the same time that Hamas,
Speaker 10: which is a proxy for Iran, is potentially going to
Speaker 10: take part or at least could in an Iranian retaliation
Speaker 10: against Israel. What are you actually expecting will go down
Speaker 10: in the coming days.
Speaker 13: Well, thanks for having me. I think that's a perfect
Speaker 13: way to put it. It's essentially a checkmate at the
Speaker 13: moment between Iran and Israel. As you had mentioned earlier,
Speaker 13: Israel had assassinated Ismail Hanie, who is the top sort
Speaker 13: of humass negotiator within Tehran, in a very highly secure
Speaker 13: IERGC building. This was a huge humiliation for Iran and
Speaker 13: they felt like they probably would have to respond in
Speaker 13: some way. At the same time, you see a new
Speaker 13: Iranian government taking shape, which could be delaying sort of
Speaker 13: a response towards Israel, and you also have these ceasefire
Speaker 13: negotiations which are supposed to be jumpstarted this Thursday, and
Speaker 13: many of the negotiators have said, this is the final
Speaker 13: this is the final step.
Speaker 8: This is it.
Speaker 13: There won't be any more real efforts, doesn't You don't
Speaker 13: know what that means. But Iran is in a very
Speaker 13: difficult situation. They know that any kind of retaliation would
Speaker 13: likely attracts a much larger Israeli retaliation, and at the
Speaker 13: same time they also know that it could blow up
Speaker 13: the ceasefire negotiations.
Speaker 2: What does it tell you, Natasha, when you see the
Speaker 2: news that we're seeing at the Pentagon Here the Secretary
Speaker 2: of Defense surging the guided missile submarine USS Georgia and
Speaker 2: the aircraft carrier Strike Group Abraham Lincoln into the area.
Speaker 2: What is the Pentagon bracing for.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean we see aircraft and warships and even
Speaker 13: a submarine heading into the region. I think a lot
Speaker 13: of this could be also, what posturing making it known
Speaker 13: that the United States will be there if there is
Speaker 13: any regional escalation and hoping to sort of check it
Speaker 13: before it begins with that predominant posture in the region
Speaker 13: that said it will be there if it needs to
Speaker 13: be used. But I think that what they're hoping to
Speaker 13: do is to signal signal something to Iran and to Israel.
Speaker 13: I think that regional escalation should not be in the
Speaker 13: cards at this point, at this very very tenuous point
Speaker 13: of ceasefire negotiations.
Speaker 10: Well, and considering at the parties in those negotiations are
Speaker 10: not just Israel and Hamas, it is also the US
Speaker 10: and Egypt and Cutter and these are the allies who
Speaker 10: have been pushing for these talks to take place this
Speaker 10: coming Thursday. What role are they playing here? And how
Speaker 10: do you expect the dip matic back channels between these
Speaker 10: countries and others in Tehran or elsewhere are working right now?
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean this has been the really fascinating part.
Speaker 13: You actually saw the Jordanian Foreign Minister go to Tehran
Speaker 13: for the first time a high level diplomat from Jordan
Speaker 13: has gone to Iran in about twenty years, to really
Speaker 13: try to take the pulse I think of the Iranian regime.
Speaker 13: You saw this unprecedented joint statement from cut Out in
Speaker 13: Egypt and the United States on Friday, really imploring the
Speaker 13: warring parties to take these ceasefire negotiations seriously and get
Speaker 13: it done. So you have a lot of other players here,
Speaker 13: and that could be who Iran goes to for their response.
Speaker 13: These other players, like the houthis to to try to
Speaker 13: demonstate some kind of plausible deniability for a military retaliation
Speaker 13: on Israel, and that could be what US forces, the
Speaker 13: US Defense Department is bracing for at the moment, because
Speaker 13: it remains to be seen where that response will come from,
Speaker 13: and so it makes sense to have this sort of
Speaker 13: overwhelming presence in the region at the moment.
Speaker 2: Natasha, there was a strike, an Israeli strike on Saturday
Speaker 2: in Gaza against a school killed nearly one hundred Palestinians,
Speaker 2: and the Idea of says there were Hamas fighters operating
Speaker 2: in that school. But this is just yet another example
Speaker 2: of why so many people have been upset about what's
Speaker 2: happening here, calling for restraint, calling for the protection of
Speaker 2: Palestinian civilians. This is one of the deadliest bombings that
Speaker 2: we've seen in this ten month conflict. Is it just
Speaker 2: part of the day to day headline now or could
Speaker 2: this in fact jeopardize a ceasefire from being reached this week?
Speaker 13: I mean, unfortunately, it wasn't a new incident. We'd seen
Speaker 13: schools that are being used as essentially displacement camps being
Speaker 13: bombed about five times in just the past few weeks.
Speaker 13: This one was particularly devastating, probably killed around one hundred people.
Speaker 13: There are about six thousand people that were sheltering in
Speaker 13: this school mosque compound that had been told to evacuate
Speaker 13: from other areas by Israeli forces. So I think it
Speaker 13: just shows the sort of the lack of clarity on
Speaker 13: how serious warring parties, including Israel, are about ceasefire negotiations
Speaker 13: and really the way forward, because at the end of
Speaker 13: the day, if Israel still sees the elimination of Hems
Speaker 13: as the end goal, it remains to be seen how
Speaker 13: you can get these ceasefire negotiations done with that very
Speaker 13: same group, and that's why all of these various attacks
Speaker 13: are so devastating for Palestinians and for their future as well.
Speaker 10: All Right, Natasha, it's always great to have you here
Speaker 10: on Balance of Power. We really appreciate your time, as
Speaker 10: we are all on watch for what happens Thursday or
Speaker 10: potentially even sooner. Natasha Hall of Center for Strategic and
Speaker 10: International Studies, where she is a Senior Fellow with the
Speaker 10: Middle East Program, Thank you.
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