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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then Roudo with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio, and on YouTube,

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Speaker 2: where we invite you to join us. Search Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 2: News Live. Simple as that you'll be with us here

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Speaker 2: in the studio. One week from today. We will be

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Speaker 2: talking to you at this time from Chicago and what

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Speaker 2: will be day one of the Democratic National Committee, the

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Speaker 2: convention of course for Kamala Harris and Tim Walls, and

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk more about that, what role Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden will play on this night a week from now,

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Speaker 2: and what role protesters will play. This some pretty interesting

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Speaker 2: out there showing that tens of thousands of pro Palestinian

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Speaker 2: protesters could be in Chicago even with the change at

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Speaker 2: the top of the ticket. And with that change, we're

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Speaker 2: waking up again today to new questions about Kamala Harris's agenda.

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Speaker 2: We don't have much of one, a skeleton of an agenda,

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Speaker 2: if not what we saw in the Biden administration. And

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Speaker 2: it's interesting as well to see the agenda form on

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Speaker 2: the Trump side. What kind of a world are we

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Speaker 2: in here where jd. Vance is promoting expanding the child

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Speaker 2: tax credit and Kamala Harris is parroting Donald Trump on

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Speaker 2: ending taxes on tips. So that's where we're going to

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Speaker 2: start here. This is the one thing we can hold

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Speaker 2: our hands on, right with a couple of exceptions. Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris already said that she would support an independent FED

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Speaker 2: and so forth, but this is specific. When I'm president,

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Speaker 2: we will continue our fight for working families of America,

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Speaker 2: including to raise the minimum wage there's one. And eliminate

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Speaker 2: taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers. There's two.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump, by the way, says, hey, wait a minute,

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Speaker 2: that was my idea. He rolled it out in June,

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Speaker 2: and at that time we talked to Mark Goldwin, Senior

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Speaker 2: Vice President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,

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Speaker 2: who had crunch numbers on this, finding that ending taxes

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Speaker 2: on tips would add a couple of one hundred million dollars,

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Speaker 2: if not more, to the deficit. He's with us right

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Speaker 2: now to talk about this. I should say billion. By

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Speaker 2: the way, live on Bloomberg Radio, Mark Goldwine, it's great

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Speaker 2: to have you from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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Speaker 2: Did your eyes roll when you heard about this one

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Speaker 2: from Kamala Harris? Now both presidential candidates are calling for this.

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Speaker 3: I mean, the tip for tat here is amazing. You know,

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Speaker 3: it just seems like Biden wants a child tax credit.

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Speaker 4: So now JD.

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Speaker 3: Fance was bigger child tax credit. Donald Trump says no

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Speaker 3: taxes on tips, So Kamala Harris says no taxes on tips.

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Speaker 3: Who's going to pay for all of this?

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Speaker 2: That's what I'm going to ask you now, because if

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Speaker 2: there isn't a plan to offset that, it would result

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Speaker 2: in about two hundre billion dollars in deficit spending based

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Speaker 2: on your calculations, right.

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Speaker 4: That's right.

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Speaker 3: We think the Harris plan, and they've given us some

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Speaker 3: more details, including that it's income tax only. But we

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Speaker 3: think that Harris plan to exempt tips from taxes and

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Speaker 3: raise the minimum wage would cost between one hundred and

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Speaker 3: two hundred billion dollars. That's real money, and if there's

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Speaker 3: not a plan to pay for it, it's going straight

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Speaker 3: to the credit card.

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Speaker 2: Okay, if you put that together with the other one here,

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Speaker 2: the expanded child tax credit. JD. Vance is suddenly promoting

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Speaker 2: this and I'm not sure he talked to the boss

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Speaker 2: about this one, because Republicans have been pushing back pretty

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Speaker 2: hard on Capitol Hill with every time the Biden administration

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Speaker 2: proposed doing this. What would that also mean for deficit spending?

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Speaker 4: Right? So, the current chow tax credit two thousand dollars.

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Speaker 3: Some Democrats have been talking about raising it to three thousand,

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Speaker 3: even thirty six hundred in some cases. Vice President cho

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Speaker 3: candidate Vance has now said five thousand dollars. That five

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars, depending on design, that could be another two

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Speaker 3: to three trillion dollars over the next decade.

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Speaker 4: That again, like that.

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Speaker 3: Makes our two hundred billion look small, even though two

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Speaker 3: hundred million is already massive.

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Speaker 2: This is incredible. So without a way to pay for these,

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Speaker 2: we add to the deficit no matter who we elect,

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Speaker 2: and therefore potentially increase inflation while we're at it. Am

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Speaker 2: I right?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, you know.

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Speaker 3: One of the ironies is the idea of the child

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Speaker 3: taxpert is to help children, But how much are you

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Speaker 3: really helping children if you're burning them with all this

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Speaker 3: new debt, Like, who is going to pay this back?

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Speaker 4: It's going to be higher taxes on future generations.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with Mark Oldwine at the Committee for a

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Speaker 2: Responsible Federal Budget, the knock on the Harris campaign Mark

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Speaker 2: has been no real agenda, no real details. What does

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Speaker 2: the committee want to hear?

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Speaker 3: Well, it's only been a few weeks, so I'm looking

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Speaker 3: forward to the convention and hoping that we'll get some

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Speaker 3: more details there. But what we want to do is

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Speaker 3: have a full plan from Donald Trump and a full

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Speaker 3: plan from Kamala Harris, and then we will score those plans.

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Speaker 3: That's what we've done in every other election, and so

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Speaker 3: far we're not there in this one.

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Speaker 2: Well, give us a sense of what she's required to

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Speaker 2: tell us. What it is that we're actually asking about here.

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Speaker 2: You want a tax proposal, I'm sure more broadly than

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Speaker 2: taxes on tips or a child tax credit. You want

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Speaker 2: her to weigh in on the twenty seventeen Trump tax

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Speaker 2: cuts that are set to expire in the term of

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Speaker 2: whomever becomes president next. What else do you want to know?

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Speaker 2: What should we be listening for?

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Speaker 4: Yes?

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Speaker 3: So, what I really I want to know her agenda,

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Speaker 3: but what I especially want to know is her solutions.

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Speaker 3: As you mentioned, we have tons of tax cuts expiring

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Speaker 3: at the end of twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: I want to know what she's.

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Speaker 3: Going to do about them, and I want to what

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump is going to do about them. We have

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Speaker 3: three major trusts Funds, Highway, Medicare, Social Security, all hurdling

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Speaker 3: towards insolvency. I want to know how she's going to

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Speaker 3: address that. We have a debt limit that's about to

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Speaker 3: come back and we need to raise it. We have

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Speaker 3: discretionary spending caps that are going to expire. I want

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Speaker 3: to know how she's going to solve all these problems.

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Speaker 3: I also want to know what she's going to do

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Speaker 3: about our massive debt and interest payments.

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Speaker 4: Interest costs this year will.

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Speaker 3: Be larger than Medicare, larger than Defense, our second largest

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Speaker 3: government program. That's just not sustainable, and I want to

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Speaker 3: hear how President Trump and how Vice President Harris are

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Speaker 3: going to turn that around.

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Speaker 2: Well, you know we're going to want to hear from

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Speaker 2: you when we learn more. Mark, It's great to see

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Speaker 2: you and thank you for the reality check as ever.

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Speaker 2: Mark Oldwine, Senior, Vice President, the Committee for a Responsible

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Speaker 2: Federal Budget here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio

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Speaker 2: and on YouTube. Just coming off of this interview with

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden, a lot of folks are wondering what it

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Speaker 2: is he might say a week from tonight at the

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Speaker 2: Democratic National Convention. It's clearly going to be a passing

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Speaker 2: of the baton the torch, whatever cliche you want to

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Speaker 2: reach for. He did talk about it with CBS News

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Speaker 2: the headline on the terminal, Biden says he dropped out

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Speaker 2: due to risk he'd be a distraction. Interesting listen to

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Speaker 2: the President speaking with Bob Costa on CBS.

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Speaker 5: Folse we had showed that it was neck and neck

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Speaker 5: race down on the wire. But what happened was a

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Speaker 5: number of my Democratic colleagues and the House and Senate

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Speaker 5: thought that I was going to hurt them in the races,

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Speaker 5: and I was concerned if I stayed in the race,

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Speaker 5: that would be the topic you'd be in interviewing about.

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Speaker 5: Why did Nancy Pelosi say? Why did some it? And

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Speaker 5: I thought it would be a real.

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Speaker 2: Distraction, a distraction the President of the United States, a

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Speaker 2: distraction from his own election. Of course, he was looking

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Speaker 2: down ballot I presume when he said that, and it's

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Speaker 2: one of the many things I want to talk about

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Speaker 2: with Kevin Walling. It's been way too long since he's

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Speaker 2: been with US Democratic strategist, former surrogate of course, for

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden the twenty twenty race. He's back on it

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Speaker 2: now with Kamala Harris. Kevin Walling, welcome back to Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: It's good to see you. I want to ask you

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Speaker 2: about the convention. I've got a lot of things that

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Speaker 2: I want to talk to you about, Kevin. But of

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Speaker 2: all the people we're going to talk to you and

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Speaker 2: hear from today on Bloomberg, I will venture to say

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Speaker 2: that you know Joe Biden more than any of them.

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Speaker 2: And I wonder your thoughts on this as he's trying

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Speaker 2: to go through the motions, trying to emotionally, of course,

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Speaker 2: to deal with this decision that he's now billing himself

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Speaker 2: as a distraction. What did you make of that?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, Joe, good to be back and good to be

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Speaker 6: with you. I think you're seeing the president in real time,

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Speaker 6: still processing some of the emotions with regards to his

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Speaker 6: decision not to seek reelection. He took some time off

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Speaker 6: this weekend gathering with family. Your right to point out

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Speaker 6: just a week from today, it's going to be actually

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Speaker 6: kind of the Joe Biden Knight at the convention in Chicago,

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Speaker 6: so there'll be a number of tributes to the president.

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Speaker 6: He will obviously have a speaking role on Monday night

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Speaker 6: and kind of kick off the convention, and to your point,

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Speaker 6: passed the baton to his number two, to his running mate.

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Speaker 6: And in that conversation he had on CBS, he talked

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Speaker 6: about being a transitional president, a transitional leader, something that

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Speaker 6: he talked about early on in his term, then wanted

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Speaker 6: to run for reelection, and then through a discernment process,

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Speaker 6: realized that, you know, Donald Trump, to him is an

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Speaker 6: existential crisis to this country. And we've seen, you know,

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Speaker 6: just in the past couple of weeks with the rollout

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Speaker 6: with the Harris Waltz ticket, that you know, their best

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Speaker 6: positioned to take on the former president.

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Speaker 2: When he says I thought it would be a real distraction,

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Speaker 2: you can almost tear Nancy Pelosi in that remark, Kevin,

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Speaker 2: and I wonder if that just underscores the idea that

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Speaker 2: it was not so much his own election he was

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Speaker 2: thinking about. It was all the House races, all the members,

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Speaker 2: all the Democratic front liners who were looking at him

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Speaker 2: asking for him to step aside.

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Speaker 6: Yeah. I mean the president at the end of the

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Speaker 6: day as a team player and cares deeply about his legacy.

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Speaker 6: He knows, you know, if the House and the Senate

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Speaker 6: were to become totally in Republican control and the former

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Speaker 6: president to come back, most of his legacy would be

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Speaker 6: washed away with the Republicans in control. So this is

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Speaker 6: a guy, you know, forty years in the Senate, eight

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Speaker 6: years as Vice president, four years as president, you know,

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Speaker 6: who served with any number of these individuals, both in

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Speaker 6: the House and the Senate, and I think really cares

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Speaker 6: deeply about the bench and making sure that Democrats not

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Speaker 6: just the win the presidency, but are successful down ticket

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Speaker 6: in a way that's contrasting with the former president who

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Speaker 6: really seemingly only cares about his own election and not

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Speaker 6: being the best kind of surrogate for you know, down

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Speaker 6: down ballot races.

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Speaker 2: Well, take us to Chicago, Kevin, We're all going to

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Speaker 2: be there together, DNC. A lot of questions about the

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Speaker 2: form this is going to take. I'll ask you about

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Speaker 2: the element of protesters in a minute. There's some troubling

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Speaker 2: reporting on that this morning. But Joe Biden's going to

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Speaker 2: open this convention. That's going to be the sort of

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Speaker 2: passing of the baton, maybe literally on the stage in

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Speaker 2: front of the delegates in Chicago. How high should our

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Speaker 2: expectations be for Kamala Harris to outline a detailed agenda

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Speaker 2: by the time we leave Chicago.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think she's certainly going to. And that's what

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Speaker 6: the convention is all about, not just in terms of,

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Speaker 6: you know, putting our two front folks front and center,

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Speaker 6: in terms of, you know, making it issues of character

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Speaker 6: and experience, but also laying out a vision. And you're

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Speaker 6: starting to see the Vice president talk about key aspects

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Speaker 6: of her agenda, right. So she talked about lowering the

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Speaker 6: cost of prescription drugs in addition to all the drugs

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Speaker 6: that they've done over the last three and a half

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Speaker 6: years with the Biden administration, making housing more affordable. You

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Speaker 6: brought up Joe and the outset taking a line from

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Speaker 6: Donald Trump in terms of taxes on tip to tip

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Speaker 6: workers in Nevada that she previewed before that crowd of

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Speaker 6: twelve thousand folks. So we got to not forget that,

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Speaker 6: you know, she just became, you know, the nominee officially

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Speaker 6: just last week, and will continue, I think, to roll

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Speaker 6: out each of these policy prescriptions. She also talked about

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Speaker 6: some of her positions on the border and immigration in

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Speaker 6: that speech outside Phoenix last week as well, teasing some

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Speaker 6: of the elements of that signing on to that bipartisan

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Speaker 6: border bill that we had that reformed asylum laws and

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Speaker 6: things like that. So as this process goes forward, she's

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Speaker 6: going to outline a lot more for her policy prescriptions,

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Speaker 6: and certainly that will be on displaying Chicago.

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Speaker 2: Well, I wonder how worried you are about this event

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Speaker 2: being interrupted, Kevin. There is reporting this morning that just

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Speaker 2: because there's a change the top of the ticket, Joe

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Speaker 2: Biden is not going to be the nominee, pro Palestinian

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Speaker 2: protesters will be out in force, in fact large numbers

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Speaker 2: next week, tens of thousands, is with the Washington Post

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Speaker 2: reports creating scenes of fury and dissent. It says, in

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Speaker 2: a moment when Democrats will be working to project unity.

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Speaker 2: A coalition of Muslim and Arab American grass roops groups

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Speaker 2: lived based in the Midwest, have sent a letter to

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris outlining what it would take to win back

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Speaker 2: their votes, including a plank in the party platform calling

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Speaker 2: for a permanent ceasefire, Kevin. They're not going to get that.

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Speaker 2: So what are these protests going to look like?

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Speaker 6: Well, as we saw you know, Vice President handle protests

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Speaker 6: in Michigan last week, you know, kind of when they

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Speaker 6: were trying to shout her down, I think she pretty

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Speaker 6: effectively managed that situation. She was the first, you know,

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Speaker 6: senior administration official to call for a seas fire. Got

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Speaker 6: some grief from different aspects of my party being so

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Speaker 6: outspoken on that front. So, as she said in that

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Speaker 6: event in Michigan, I don't know why you're protesting me

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Speaker 6: go after Donald Trump that wants to bring back a

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Speaker 6: Muslim band for example, that would never sign onto a ceasfire,

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Speaker 6: who stands lockstep with Bebe in terms of the current

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Speaker 6: situation on the ground in Gaza. So you know, we'll

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Speaker 6: see these protests. Chicago is obviously set for that. I

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Speaker 6: think you know, in conversations with the convention team, they

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Speaker 6: continue to extend the perimeter of that with an eye

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Speaker 6: towards security. These people have every right, obviously to express frustration.

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Speaker 6: But you know, as the Vice President said, focus your

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Speaker 6: frustration on where the actual issues are, and you'll see

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Speaker 6: that she's much more lockstep in terms of calling for

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Speaker 6: the ceasefire and trying to work and bring an end

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Speaker 6: to the Hamas Israel war than we've seen, you know,

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Speaker 6: from the other side.

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Speaker 2: Kevin, I have to ask you before you leave us

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Speaker 2: as a Capital D Democrat, what went through your mind

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Speaker 2: when you heard JD Vance make the rounds on Sunday

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Speaker 2: morning calling for an expanded child tax credit.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, listen, I love you know. I'm a Catholic, so

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Speaker 6: you know I believe in converts. So we're happy to

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Speaker 6: have you know, JD Vance, you know, touting our line.

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Speaker 6: I'll note that his voting record doesn't line up for

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Speaker 6: what he's actually calling for. I think he actually missed

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Speaker 6: the vote to extend that childhood tax child tax credit

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Speaker 6: serving in the Senate. So you know, words speak, you know,

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Speaker 6: less louder than actions here. But certainly you know, if

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Speaker 6: you're looking for a pro family party, that's the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 6: It ain't these attacks on IVF and other things that

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Speaker 6: jd is trafficking in.

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Speaker 2: Well, it's interesting JD. Vance. He likes Lena Khan, he

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Speaker 2: wants a higher minimum wage, and an expanded child tax credit.

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Speaker 2: Maybe he should talk to Kamala Harris about getting those

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Speaker 2: done to have them on board. It's just, you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe nothing matters. Kevin. It's good to see you. I'll

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Speaker 2: meet you in a week, Okay in Chicago. Thanks for

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Speaker 2: being back with us as always, Democratic strategist former Biden

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Speaker 2: surrogate in twenty.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

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Speaker 2: Here in New York at World Headquarters. Yes, indeed, the

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Speaker 2: fastest show in politics is on the road here. Kaylie

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Speaker 2: will join us about twenty minutes here in the studio

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Speaker 2: as well as we carry on our conversation on a

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Speaker 2: campaign that is going to bring its focus to X Tonight,

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Speaker 2: we just got another post, I say tonight. Apparently this

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Speaker 2: is an all day affair. Donald Trump posted on what

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Speaker 2: most people still call Twitter for the first time in

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Speaker 2: about a year a short time ago to talk about

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Speaker 2: the campaign. He posted a campaign video whatever, But we

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Speaker 2: just got a new one. Now it's an image. It

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Speaker 2: looks like kind of a wrestling promo or something. Donald J.

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Speaker 2: Trump and Elon Musk live on X remember the big

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Speaker 2: interview tonight eight pm Eastern. He writes, enjoy just one word,

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Speaker 2: Enjoy exclamation point, and we probably will. Genie Shanzano and

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis were taking the phone off the hook starting

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Speaker 2: at eight o'clock tonight. We do wonder how well this

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Speaker 2: is going to work, knowing how these have gone before.

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Speaker 2: This is a Twitter spaces or an x Spaces thing

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Speaker 2: like Elon Musk did with Ronda Santis. Now we've got

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Speaker 2: a whole pile of polls to go through, and I

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Speaker 2: want to hear from the panel on that. But since

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Speaker 2: we just got this drop, Genie Shanzano, I know, is excited.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, Political science professor, Ioni University, Rick Davis partner,

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Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital, also Bloomberg Politics contributors. Happy Monday. Great

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Speaker 2: to see both of you, hear Genie, eight pm Eastern time.

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Speaker 2: What is going to happen on X? Is Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: going to endorse evs or something? How does this go tonight?

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Speaker 7: I think it could be anything. You know, they're going

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Speaker 7: to be hoping to your point that they don't have

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Speaker 7: a repeat of what happened to poor Ron DeSantis when

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Speaker 7: he did that. But you know, I think this is

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Speaker 7: an indication that we've seen actually for the last few

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Speaker 7: weeks that the campaign really feels like if they can

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Speaker 7: target this small group of under fifty men who don't

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Speaker 7: get their news from traditional news organizations. They're described sometimes

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Speaker 7: as low information voters, gamers and others that people like

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Speaker 7: he went and talked last week with Aiden Ross that

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Speaker 7: these will be the people who can put him over

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Speaker 7: the edge in this campaign, and they are very narrowly

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Speaker 7: focused on this group. So we've had them upset about

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Speaker 7: the Rogan endorsement of R of K, which he took

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Speaker 7: back the Aiden Ross interview, and now tonight Elon Musk,

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Speaker 7: I think it's just a continuation of where they feel

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Speaker 7: they can pick up this support and start to turn

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Speaker 7: this thing around where they've had a bad few weeks.

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Speaker 2: Now, Rick, I don't know your thoughts on this as

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Speaker 2: a campaign tool, but let's be honest, an endorsement by

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Speaker 2: Elon Musk is a pretty big deal. This is one

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Speaker 2: of the most famous people on the planet. Does he

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Speaker 2: bring too much baggage for it to help?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 8: He does divide the room. I mean, there's no question

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Speaker 8: that there's a lot of dissent in amongst the world

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Speaker 8: domestic politically around Elon Musk. He puts himself out there.

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Speaker 8: He's sort of veered toward the right all year long.

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Speaker 8: He's been a topic of scorn and also inspiration to

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Speaker 8: hundreds of thousands of people. He's even claimed he's gonna

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Speaker 8: deliver just under a million votes for Donald Trump. That's

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Speaker 8: powerful stuff, and he's got the financial means to do it.

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Speaker 8: The question is who does he turn off in the process.

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Speaker 8: I mean, sure, matth is, politics is addition and subtraction.

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Speaker 8: So in addition to trying to target these voters that

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Speaker 8: GINI was just talking about, what are you losing in

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Speaker 8: the process, because these are tough acts to follow us literally,

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Speaker 8: suburban women, goodbye to the Republican Party again for another cycle.

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Speaker 8: They've found somebody else that can speak their language. And

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Speaker 8: then how deep does it go? How far out in

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Speaker 8: the experts do you get, you know, losing votes while

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Speaker 8: getting them in the rural areas.

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Speaker 2: We've got a couple of important polls out they dropped

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Speaker 2: over the weekend. They don't all agree, and I'm curious

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Speaker 2: to get both of your impressions on them, because we

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Speaker 2: spent the last two weeks talking about a honeymoon, and

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Speaker 2: now we can put numbers on some of these. We

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Speaker 2: had the Bloomberg Swing State pole showed them statistically tied

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Speaker 2: in the seven swing states. Now Sienna is out with

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Speaker 2: its Swing state pole, Harris at fifty percent to Trump

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Speaker 2: at forty six percent among likely voters. That's important, not

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Speaker 2: just registered, are likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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Speaker 2: Now we can talk all day long about the headline numbers,

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Speaker 2: but there's something specific here, and Genie, I'll start with

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Speaker 2: you that argues with what we're seeing in the new

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Speaker 2: FT poll. The Financial Times worked with the University of

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Speaker 2: Michigan Ross School. Also it's in Kamala Harris's favor on

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Speaker 2: the headline, but they found as well that there's disagreement

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Speaker 2: among voters on who to trust when it comes to

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Speaker 2: the economy. The Econ pole on the ft looks good.

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Speaker 2: The Siena poll, however, finds that voters still prefer Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle

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Speaker 2: the economy as well as immigration. Genie, how are you

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Speaker 2: dissecting all of these.

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Speaker 7: Numbers, Yeah, it was difficult to make sense of the

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Speaker 7: ft Pole in conjunction with what we've seen throughout the campaign,

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Speaker 7: and of course the latest New York Times Sienna Pole

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Speaker 7: and on the issue of the econ me. Overall throughout

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Speaker 7: this campaign, pre Harris and now post Harris, the Republicans

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Speaker 7: and Donald Trump have had a strong advantage, So I

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Speaker 7: would not suggest that she has turned that around. This

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Speaker 7: may be an indication that the numbers are moving in

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Speaker 7: her direction, that she is doing better on the economy.

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Speaker 7: She is not as tied to Joe Biden's economic record

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Speaker 7: in the mind of likely voters as as he was

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Speaker 7: specifically responsible for, So numbers may be moving in her direction.

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Speaker 7: But I think it's really premature to say she is winning,

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Speaker 7: certainly on this economic numbers. The reality is those issues

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Speaker 7: economy and immigration favor the Republicans and Donald Trump. The

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Speaker 7: problem is he doesn't have the discipline to talk about

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Speaker 7: those and that's where the rub is. I mean, we

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Speaker 7: even heard that in the Wall Street Journal editorial the

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Speaker 7: other day. Can Can he be disciplined enough to talk

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Speaker 7: about these issues which favor him. Still, if he continues

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Speaker 7: with these sort of meltdown diet tribes on truth, social X,

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Speaker 7: and on these rallies about everything except issues, then he

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Speaker 7: is going to lose this middle of the road that

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Speaker 7: he needs in these some of these swing states on

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Speaker 7: these issues. And that's maybe what could be driving down

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Speaker 7: his numbers. There are probably more, to the point driving

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Speaker 7: up per numbers.

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Speaker 2: Rick before the weekend, most of the polls showed and

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Speaker 2: remarkable in its own right, Kamala Harris essentially tying up

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Speaker 2: this race statistical tie, making up for the gap that

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden was showing in the polls. Do you believe

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Speaker 2: these new numbers showing her actually taking a lead in

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Speaker 2: such a small period of time.

436
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 8: You know, I don't get hung up on the actual number,

437
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 8: you know, I see these as directional signals, and She's

438
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 8: got some pretty good directional signals, and they're all pointing up.

439
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 8: And literally, ever since Donald Trump's speech at the Report

440
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 8: Looking Convention, his directional signals, pulling wise, have been pointing down.

441
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 8: So this is where the Democrats want to be going

442
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 8: into their convention. This is a fully scripted event in

443
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 8: about a week. So the assumption is they'll punch through

444
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 8: even more positives than they have today, maybe get a

445
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,399
Speaker 8: buck bump in the convention, which means you're rolling in

446
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:29,199
Speaker 8: a labor day with those directional signals pointing up for

447
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,960
Speaker 8: the Democrats a critical period of time to start that campaign.

448
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 8: You know, you have to count this as a you know,

449
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 8: toss of a coin election right now. And I would

450
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 8: say on the economy, what was interesting about that Financial

451
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 8: Times poll that I read was that sixty percent of

452
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 8: the people pulled thought that Kamala Harris needed to take

453
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 8: a different direction than Joe Biden's economic policy.

454
00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:56,080
Speaker 4: And what you're.

455
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 8: Probably seeing is this idea that Kamala Harris is sort

456
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 8: of people are writing what they want on her right now.

457
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 8: They don't really know much about her sense of specific

458
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,240
Speaker 8: metrics on issues, so they're willing to give her a chance,

459
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,479
Speaker 8: right and I think her speech at the Democratic Convention,

460
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 8: which will be the next time tens of millions of

461
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:17,679
Speaker 8: people see and hear her, is going to be her

462
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 8: opportunity to either make that good for them, in other words,

463
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 8: be able to appeal to the broadest section of America

464
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 8: she can, or start to take people off of that

465
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 8: list of folks who kind of are sitting on her

466
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 8: ballot right now wondering who she's all about.

467
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 2: Really interesting, Rick, because Kamala Harris says this week she

468
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: will roll out a more comprehensive economic agenda, So presumably, Genie,

469
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 2: we're going to get that before the convention. There'll be

470
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 2: a lot of reporting on it over the weekend going

471
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: into day one on Monday, and that's when we're really

472
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:53,560
Speaker 2: going to learn how fragile this lead is because we're

473
00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: adding actual policy positions to her candidacy. But the other

474
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: side of this convention, Genie, could be a very difficult

475
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 2: one when it comes to protests. The Washington Post today

476
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 2: reporting tens of thousands are still expected even without Joe

477
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 2: Biden at the top of the ticket. In fact, a

478
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 2: coalition of activists, Muslim and Arab American groups based in

479
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 2: the Midwest have sent a letter to the Vice president

480
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:21,919
Speaker 2: outlining what it would take to win back their votes.

481
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 2: They include demands that are clearly not going to be met,

482
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 2: like changing the party platform to call for an immediate

483
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,040
Speaker 2: and permanent cease fire. What are we in for. You're

484
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 2: going to be there, We'll all be there a week

485
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 2: from today. How much will these protesters change.

486
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 4: The DNC, you know, I don't.

487
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 7: Obviously they're not going to get that on the platform

488
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,239
Speaker 7: for the DNC. I think this is a test for

489
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 7: the DNC and for the Harris campaign, and quite frankly

490
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 7: Harris herself. How does she manage this? I think she

491
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 7: really does have to speak her truth to these to

492
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 7: these protesters and say where she stands on this issue.

493
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 7: We saw her do a little bit of that after

494
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 7: her meeting with Benjamin and Yahoo. I think we're going

495
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 7: to see her do more of that, and I think

496
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 7: we're going to see her resort to the argument she

497
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 7: made the other day at the rally when they interrupted her,

498
00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 7: which was, if you want to elect Donald Trump, then

499
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 7: go ahead, because he is even further against the positions

500
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 7: they're at than she is. So she is going to,

501
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 7: I think, keep with those messages. But it certainly will

502
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 7: be a test, and I think Democrats have to hope

503
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,680
Speaker 7: this isn't a repeat of nineteen sixty eight. There's no

504
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 7: suggestion at this point there will be, but this is

505
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 7: where they are at and they have to be ready.

506
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,880
Speaker 7: And to Rick's point, this is a scripted event, so

507
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,680
Speaker 7: they should have this under control in the venue it's

508
00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 7: going to be outside where we hear a lot more

509
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 7: about this.

510
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll meet you there. Rick, What would you advise

511
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 2: the candidate to do in this case? Do you take

512
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 2: the hard line? Do you continue to say no, let

513
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 2: me talk if you want to fit this problem, I'm

514
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 2: your only hope because Donald Trump will make it worse.

515
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 2: Or does she invite them into the room, have a

516
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,959
Speaker 2: sit down, try to welcome them to the party.

517
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 8: What would be your approach, Well, you kind of hope

518
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 8: a lot of that is that sort of sitting down

519
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:18,199
Speaker 8: is happening now, right You want to preempt this as

520
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,359
Speaker 8: much as you can, and then if they show up,

521
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,880
Speaker 8: they show up. But right now, I would think it's

522
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,680
Speaker 8: smart on her part to have some leaders from her team,

523
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 8: you know, sitting down with these groups and you know

524
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 8: they want to argue, they want.

525
00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:31,160
Speaker 4: To make a case.

526
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 8: That's great, Just do it peacefully, do it and assign locations.

527
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 8: Don't you know, harass delegates, don't harass the media. You know,

528
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 8: get it as contained as you possibly can, and then

529
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 8: and then don't give it much Brooke, I mean, honestly,

530
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 8: the performance that you want reported is on the inside,

531
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 8: not the outside of that convention. Hall, and and if

532
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 8: they make it interesting enough, they'll get their share of eyeballs.

533
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 8: And and the reality is I think that that the

534
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 8: student protests at the end the last semester really wore

535
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 8: out the American public, right.

536
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 4: There wasn't a whole lot of you know.

537
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 8: Kind words for these folks who held up people's graduations,

538
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 8: tore up school buildings, you know, and made a mockery

539
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 8: of a lot of the rules and regulations governing speech

540
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 8: at these famous universities. So I don't think there's a

541
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 8: lot of good will for them going into this thing.

542
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 8: They they're they're they're they're very vulnerable to having this

543
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 8: backfire on their movement, and I would think that they

544
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 8: should consider that before, you know, basically trying to disrupt

545
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 8: a Democratic convention that, as we've all been saying, makes

546
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 8: no sense if you look at the politics, who's more

547
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 8: likely to bring a ceasefire to the Middle East? Donald

548
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 8: Trumper or the Biden administration. Look, we could even see

549
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 8: a cease fire between now and the Democratic Convention, So

550
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 8: all of this could even change. But again, I mean,

551
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 8: you know, you've got to be positive if you're the

552
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 8: Democrats and run your own convention.

553
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 2: Well, that's a great point. A lot of things could change,

554
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 2: including this expected retaliatory strike against Israel by Iran. There

555
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: is reporting on that as well as Lloyd Austin, the

556
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 2: Defense Secretary, orders the USS Georgia guided missile submarine to

557
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 2: the Middle East, speeding up the Abraham Lincoln the aircraft

558
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: carrier to get to the area. With a strike still

559
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: expected this week, that could be the backdrop of the

560
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 2: convention that we're talking about starting a week from today.

561
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 2: By the way, the big Donald Trump Elon interviewed tonight.

562
00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 2: Shares of DJT down five percent. This is Bloomberg.

563
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

564
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on APO car Play

565
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 1: and then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

566
00:29:43,400 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

567
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

568
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 9: No matter where we are.

569
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 10: Joe, We've obviously been tracking carefully all of the headlines

570
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 10: coming out of the Middle East, as Israel is still

571
00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 10: a waiting retaliation from Iran for the killing of to

572
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 10: leaders of Iranian proxies. And then of course there's also

573
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 10: the questions around ceasefire talks, which allies would like to

574
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 10: see happen later on this week. We just got a

575
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 10: statement out from the National Security Council here in the

576
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 10: US that says President Biden today spoke with France, Germany,

577
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 10: Italy and the UK to discuss the situation in the

578
00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 10: Middle East and ongoing efforts to de escalate tensions and

579
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 10: rese ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza.

580
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 2: Important update here, Kaylee, this is ahead of talk starting

581
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 2: on Thursday. Is the idea that everyone, at least so

582
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,479
Speaker 2: far we think might be at the table. Hamas has

583
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 2: been suggesting. It will not have a representative there, But

584
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:36,560
Speaker 2: how you have this at the same time as this

585
00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 2: impending retaliation from Iran is remarkable that has not gone away.

586
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 2: Reports today suggest that this is still in the works

587
00:30:46,360 --> 00:30:50,080
Speaker 2: and could in fact happen within days. Kailey, Defense Secretary

588
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 2: of Lloyd Austin now ordering more assets into the region,

589
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 2: the USS Georgia that's a guided missile submarine. We've also

590
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 2: got the Lincoln Aircraft Carrier Strike Group said to be

591
00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 2: speeding up its voyage to the area. The end of

592
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: this week is going to be remarkable, and that's going

593
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 2: to be the backdrop for our convention in Chicago next

594
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: week when I say we were all going and it's

595
00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 2: going to be quite a conversation that we have at

596
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 2: that point. So before we get to the stalwarts, you know,

597
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 2: Joe Wisenthal's coming in here. If this is one of

598
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 2: the benefits, remember he sends one tweet and then we'll

599
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 2: have like this is going to be the most listeners

600
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 2: we've ever had. Nick Wadams is with us in Washington

601
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,600
Speaker 2: right now, of course, leading our national security team. With

602
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 2: the headlines on Israel and Iran, Nick, it's great to

603
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 2: have you. Are we going to see possibly both of

604
00:31:34,600 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 2: these happen this week, a ceasefire and a retaliation.

605
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 11: Well, that is definitely the question everybody wants an answer to.

606
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 11: I mean, I think these two things are actually linked

607
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 11: in the sense that the Biden administration and allies are

608
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 11: hoping to get more momentum around the idea of a

609
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 11: ceasefire in part to try to head off that Iranian attack.

610
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 11: The idea being that if they can show Iran and others, look,

611
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:08,080
Speaker 11: there is a credible possibility that we could get this

612
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 11: thing buttoned up by the fifteenth, when they're supposed to

613
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 11: be a new round of talks for the seasfire that

614
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 11: that may in some ways deter or shape the Iranian response.

615
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 11: If you can basically make the argument, hey, listen, an

616
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 11: Iranian response an attack on Israel will scuttle the chances

617
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 11: for the ceasefires. So obviously Iran feels that it's compelled

618
00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 11: to attack Israel. Though Israel has not taken credit for

619
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:39,239
Speaker 11: the killing of a senior Hamas leader in Tehran. But

620
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 11: these two things are very much connected. We're all waiting

621
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 11: to see what happens next.

622
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 10: Well, and the question I have listening to you, Nick,

623
00:32:45,640 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 10: is the other party that needs to agree to the

624
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 10: ceasefire is Hamas, which is an Iranian proxy. So if

625
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 10: Iran doesn't want the ceasefire to be agreed to so

626
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 10: that they can retally against Israel, why would Hamas say, Okay,

627
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 10: we're on board, here's your hostages.

628
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 11: Well, yeah, I mean it's a great question because we're

629
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 11: always trying to figure out who exactly has the influence

630
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 11: and to what degree Iran is actually shaping this thing.

631
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 11: I mean, you know, I think it's just also the

632
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 11: death of Ismaeil Haniya a couple of weeks ago really

633
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 11: upended the whole power structure. I mean, one thing we

634
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 11: really have not been able to get to the bottom

635
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 11: of anyhow is how much either side really wants to

636
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 11: have this ceasefire because their goals, as we've talked about

637
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 11: so many times before, seem to be so opposite. Hamas

638
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 11: wants Israel out of Gaza for good. Israel wants Hamas

639
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 11: no longer to exist. So it's very unclear where you

640
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 11: find an actual resolution when the two sides demands are

641
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 11: so opposite. But I think what you're seeing here really

642
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 11: is a sense that what the US and Allies want

643
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 11: is listen, let's just pause the fighting, get this thing

644
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 11: to stop for a little bit, try to ease some

645
00:33:57,360 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 11: of the pressure out of this situation, avoid the s

646
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 11: into a bigger war, and then we can figure out

647
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 11: what happens next. So many big challenges over the long term,

648
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 11: but in the short term, what you really are seeing

649
00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,760
Speaker 11: is just let's just get the guns to be silent

650
00:34:12,840 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 11: for the time being and then kick the can down

651
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:16,839
Speaker 11: the road a little bit.

652
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: Nick, we have to ask you about Ukraine while you're

653
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,240
Speaker 2: with us. Just in our last moment here, massive evacuations

654
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 2: in the Cursk region of Russia. As of course Ukraine continues,

655
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:31,320
Speaker 2: this incursion across the border. Vladimir Putin is sending reinforcements.

656
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 2: What is this going to turn into? Are they in

657
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 2: fact moving the border in the process.

658
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 11: Well, I mean a lot of questions about the Ukrainian

659
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 11: motivation here, But obviously if they are able to hold,

660
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:47,839
Speaker 11: to occupy, and then crucially to hold that Russian land,

661
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 11: that's not something that they're going to be able to

662
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 11: do for a very very long time, presumably given the

663
00:34:52,600 --> 00:34:55,399
Speaker 11: number of forces they actually have. But whether that would

664
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:58,200
Speaker 11: be some sort of a bargaining chip when you do

665
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,800
Speaker 11: start thinking down the line about the possibility of negotiations,

666
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 11: a little bit of like, hey, you took some of

667
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 11: our land, Now look at us, We've got some of yours.

668
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 11: It gives Ukraine a little bit of leverage, a little

669
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,560
Speaker 11: bit of something to trade. Obviously, a big shock for

670
00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:16,319
Speaker 11: Vladimir Putin makes him look very very bad, looks like

671
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 11: he's not totally in control. Certainly something that gives a

672
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 11: little bit of an advantage to the Ukrainians.

673
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 10: All Right, Nick Wadams, who leads our national security coverage

674
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 10: in Washington, thank you so much. As always, Obviously, President

675
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,279
Speaker 10: Biden keeping himself apprised with this phone call today of

676
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 10: what's happening in the Middle East, surely what's happening with

677
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 10: Ukraine and Russia as well. But Joe, he's also gearing

678
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 10: up for later this week to actually appear beside his

679
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 10: vice president now Democratic nominee on Thursday in Maryland to

680
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:47,720
Speaker 10: talk specifically about the economy and bringing costs down for people.

681
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 10: This is something we're hearing Harris talk more and more about.

682
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 2: I guess a preview of Monday. He's going to be

683
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 2: speaking the first night of the convention, Kailey. This will

684
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 2: be the first time we see them together though on

685
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 2: a stage, even as they've been both talking around this

686
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 2: incredible that we've seen. He sat down with CBS News

687
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 2: over the weekend, Joe Biden suggesting he left because he

688
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 2: was becoming a distraction, presumably down ballot. And she's been

689
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 2: asked about fed independence, whether she would continue the line

690
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 2: of independence that we heard and saw, of course from

691
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:18,600
Speaker 2: Joe Biden. Every time we talked to Jared Bernstein, we

692
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,399
Speaker 2: joke about it, or be like Donald Trump, who would

693
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 2: like to be basically setting interest rates himself.

694
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:25,760
Speaker 12: Yeah, Well, he said that at mar A Lago.

695
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 10: He thinks the president should have a role in setting

696
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:30,879
Speaker 10: monetary policy. He had just said that at the end

697
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 10: of last week. Obviously, the Vice president thinks differently about this.

698
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 10: And someone who's thinking always differently or not is Joe Wisenthal,

699
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:39,719
Speaker 10: who is here with us in New York. He's co

700
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 10: host of Bloomberg's Odd Loot Odd Lots podcast, also the

701
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 10: Way Stalwart.

702
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 11: Here from the other side of star Wart.

703
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 2: We can't get you on the Sherwood lest we come

704
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 2: to New York.

705
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 9: I'll come down sometimes. Irritation, all right, I will call

706
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 9: it any time you want me to call in. But

707
00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 9: I'm thrilled to be here.

708
00:36:59,040 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 2: So cool, I r O.

709
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,240
Speaker 9: You guess, well, what do we talking about?

710
00:37:04,080 --> 00:37:05,200
Speaker 12: We were talking about this.

711
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 10: In our morning editorial meeting. Does the voter care about

712
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 10: FED independence or is it just us sitting in this room?

713
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 9: And there are many FED independence voters, even on Wall Street.

714
00:37:17,840 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 9: I mean, I'll say a couple of things about this.

715
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 9: One is that you know, there is a widespread consensus

716
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 9: internationally among economists that economists or that economies benefit when

717
00:37:32,120 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 9: there is an entity that is not directly directly politically sensitive,

718
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 9: that the FED share doesn't have to stand for re election,

719
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 9: et cetera. There is a view that you know, countercyclical

720
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 9: monetary policy is good, particularly when inflation gets too high.

721
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 9: I mean, you see this look right like, so right

722
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 9: now we're at a period where inflation has come down

723
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 9: a lot. But you know, the talking point that both

724
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 9: of you mentioned is the idea of cutting taxes on

725
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 9: tip to workers right now. Now economists would say, when

726
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 9: the economy is doing really well, that is not a

727
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,680
Speaker 9: good time to cut taxes. That's an accelerant. It's the

728
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 9: exact opposite. But no one wants to talk about that,

729
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 9: or no one wants to do that. That's difficult politically

730
00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 9: to do. There was the comment that I believe Trump

731
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 9: also made about ending taxes on Social Security, which is

732
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 9: essentially another you know, it's a tax cut, it's more spending,

733
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,919
Speaker 9: et cetera. Again, probably not the type of thing you'd

734
00:38:29,960 --> 00:38:35,839
Speaker 9: necessarily want to do when the inflation is as high

735
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 9: as it's been. All that being said, Trump had some

736
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 9: decent instincts about monetary policy. Many people would say he

737
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 9: was right, particularly in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen during some

738
00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 9: of the tightening cycle, and in fact Powell himself had

739
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 9: to walk back some of the cuts prior to COVID.

740
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 9: So you know, there is a sense in which Donald

741
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 9: Trump seems to have some pretty good instincts about where

742
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 9: the economy is, what's necessary at the time, but fundamentally changing.

743
00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 9: You know, who has a say in interest rates setting?

744
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 9: I think many people consider it to be a fairly

745
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:13,640
Speaker 9: radical idea.

746
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 2: He's sitting down with Elon Musky. Yeah, did you see

747
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 2: that's like a wrestling ad that they put up here.

748
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,400
Speaker 9: Yeah, so he's been gone other than so he last

749
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 9: year he tweeted his photo of the mugshot. Yes, he's

750
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 9: been disappeared from Twitter. First sold. It's kind of amazing.

751
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:31,319
Speaker 2: DJT stock is down five percent. Now, yeah, that's an earthshaker,

752
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 2: it is.

753
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:34,879
Speaker 9: Because that's like the one thing that truth social had

754
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 9: going for was the.

755
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 2: One guy posts. So what what are we in for here?

756
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 2: Are you compelled by this sort of uh pairing of personalities?

757
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:48,919
Speaker 2: Is their policy? Here? Does the Elon Musk endorsement mean

758
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 2: a lot to somebody who does who cares about it?

759
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 9: We'll see. I mean, look, both Trump and Musk have

760
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,600
Speaker 9: their sort of cults of personality, so to speak, and

761
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:02,319
Speaker 9: they obviously dovetail ideological on a lot of things. You know,

762
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:06,320
Speaker 9: it's an interesting it's an interesting choice. Is it a

763
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 9: vote getter or a dial mover? You know what I

764
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:12,759
Speaker 9: will say, though, there is something about Twitter specifically that

765
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 9: I believe is very influential in the media. And it's

766
00:40:16,200 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 9: the sense that like reporters, and I'm guilty of this myself,

767
00:40:20,000 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 9: like we see stories, things that people talk about on

768
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 9: Twitter more than any other platform, become things that we

769
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 9: write articles about, two podcasts about, et cetera. And there's

770
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 9: no there's no escaping that fact that. So I don't

771
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:39,800
Speaker 9: think like Twitter itself is a medium that like changes votes,

772
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 9: but Twitter itself, I do honestly believe changes what the

773
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 9: media will cover. And so therefore I think if you

774
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 9: want to influence reporters, which I think is important for

775
00:40:50,680 --> 00:40:53,879
Speaker 9: both candidates, if you want to influence reporters, it makes

776
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:55,720
Speaker 9: a lot of sense to be active on Twitter.

777
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:58,439
Speaker 12: So we're still calling it Twitter to be close.

778
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 9: Oh yeah, what happened this old school?

779
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 2: What happens on this is the one that I was

780
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 2: trying to call it x too, and now everyone's.

781
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 9: You know what's funny is I think During uh Trump's

782
00:41:08,440 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 9: trial in Manhattan last year, Trump's legal team objected to

783
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:17,080
Speaker 9: a juror who still called it twitter, which I know

784
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,400
Speaker 9: was really interesting and they were probably right to because

785
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 9: I feel like the sort of like Elon Musk fans

786
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,080
Speaker 9: like they're really quick to like switch from Twitter to X.

787
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 9: Where's the old school? People were like, we're going to

788
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 9: keep calling it twitter. So when that potential Jersey, No,

789
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 9: I still call it twitter. The Trump lawyers are like, no,

790
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 9: he's out.

791
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:35,920
Speaker 12: Well, I also am curious.

792
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,320
Speaker 10: I think we all remember what happened when Ron DeSantis

793
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 10: launched his presidential campaign over spaces and it was.

794
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 12: Didn't go very well.

795
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 10: And I noted Elon Musk tweeted last night X posted exit.

796
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 9: Yeah, no, that's the problem.

797
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:53,800
Speaker 12: The verb still feels like tweet.

798
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:56,279
Speaker 10: But he said he's doing scaling tests ahead of this

799
00:41:56,360 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 10: thing because you potentially break the system.

800
00:41:58,840 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 12: Again.

801
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 9: No, And that was a disaster because then they had

802
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 9: other folks like the VC David Sachs was on that

803
00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 9: call and he was getting interrupted like, probably the worst

804
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 9: way to introduce your campaign, imaginable.

805
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 2: That's saying a lot on the platform.

806
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's right, that's right.

807
00:42:13,719 --> 00:42:16,840
Speaker 2: I spent a lot of money on who cares about

808
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 2: this election right now? In the financial world because we

809
00:42:20,640 --> 00:42:23,759
Speaker 2: keep hearing analysts tell us that nobody pays attention until

810
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 2: we come back to the beach and the kids go

811
00:42:25,239 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 2: to school. But I feel like Joe, people are paying

812
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 2: closer attention than ever earlier.

813
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 9: Well, what I would say is it felt like nobody

814
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 9: was paying attention at all of the election until the debate,

815
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:38,359
Speaker 9: and I feel like the debate mark basically day one

816
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:41,800
Speaker 9: of this election. You know, it's a really good question

817
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 9: because if you took if you take Trump's at his

818
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 9: words seriously about what he wants to do, there's some

819
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 9: pretty big implications for the economy. I'm thinking particularly on

820
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 9: tariff policy specifically, which he takes seriously. It's one of

821
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 9: the things that in the twenty sixteen he talked about tariffs,

822
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 9: and he kept his promise. You know, politicians don't always

823
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:08,320
Speaker 9: keep their promises. He did introduce new tariffs.

824
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: He believed Joe Biden kept this promise.

825
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 9: But if you look at like the market, does it

826
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:16,840
Speaker 9: look like we're about it's like enters some major escalation

827
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,400
Speaker 9: of a trade war. I don't really see it. So,

828
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 9: you know, one of the questions seems to me is like, well,

829
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:25,919
Speaker 9: why isn't the market more anxious about you know, I'm

830
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 9: not even saying bad or good. I'm just saying potential changes.

831
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 9: There's still kind of hard. It's hard to see the

832
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 9: fingerprints on the election, so or you know, at this

833
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,760
Speaker 9: point in twenty sixteen, everyone's like in the twenty sixteen cycles,

834
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 9: like we're all watching the Mexican peso, right, and like

835
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,439
Speaker 9: when Trump's polls would go up and the paco would

836
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:44,000
Speaker 9: go down, et cetera. It's not obvious to me looking

837
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 9: at this market that there's like some clear Trump trade

838
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 9: that has emerged.

839
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 10: Well, that's just because everybody's trying to figure out if

840
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,000
Speaker 10: the Fed's gonna cut by twenty five that's right, the

841
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:56,280
Speaker 10: next month, right, data so important, Yeah.

842
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 9: And everyone's looking at the short term and the what

843
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 9: is happening with the state of the labor market. But

844
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 9: there's not some clear basket of stocks or something that

845
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:07,320
Speaker 9: seems to be directly like toggling related to what happens

846
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 9: in this election, at least as far as I've seen.

847
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:12,919
Speaker 2: Well, that's honest, what do we get after this thing tonight?

848
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 2: He endorses EV's and does Elon must work with the

849
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 2: UAW or something that does. He He's gonna complain about

850
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 2: the unions. That's why he hasn't been invited to the

851
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:23,399
Speaker 2: White House.

852
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 9: It's so right, it's it's really funny. I don't know

853
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 9: there was a comment, because you know, Trump made a

854
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 9: comment in his speech recently saying, oh, he likes evs,

855
00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 9: he owns an EVA and in part because Elon musk endorsement.

856
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:42,719
Speaker 9: It's so refreshing to hear a politician talk like that

857
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 9: in some way, because we're not really supposed.

858
00:44:44,920 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 2: To, like be honest.

859
00:44:46,719 --> 00:44:48,839
Speaker 9: Yeah, you're not really supposed to say like, well, this

860
00:44:48,880 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 9: person endorsed me, so now I'm gonna say good things

861
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 9: about their product or their industry, et cetera. We know

862
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 9: that Trump has been really critical of electrification. He's talked

863
00:44:58,080 --> 00:44:59,879
Speaker 9: about all the problems it's going to cause, and he's

864
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 9: talked about if we have electric trucks, then they're not

865
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 9: going to be able to The weight that bridges can

866
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 9: stand is not going to be enough for them. Some

867
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 9: interesting points. It'll be interesting to hear if EV's specifically

868
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:12,359
Speaker 9: come up.

869
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 2: Amazing, he landed the plane just like that. I thought

870
00:45:15,719 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 2: with podcasts you just talked there's no outtime ever, like

871
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 2: we have noil On Bloomberg.

872
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

873
00:45:26,960 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

874
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 1: roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business at You can also

875
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:36,240
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

876
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

877
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 2: Kaylie, we should talk more about what's happening in Israel

878
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: right now. Of course, we have the potential at this

879
00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 2: moment for a cease fire with Hamas this week. We

880
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 2: also have the potential for a new war between Israel

881
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 2: and Iran, or at least a retaliatory strike. Joe Biden

882
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 2: was talking about it in that CBS interview we discussed

883
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,279
Speaker 2: in which he referred to him is a distraction. That's

884
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 2: why he left the presidential race. He also talked about

885
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:08,160
Speaker 2: the chances of a ceasefire emerging in Israel. Here's what

886
00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 2: he said.

887
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 5: The plan I put together, endorsed by the G seven,

888
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 5: endorsed by the Uman Security.

889
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:16,160
Speaker 1: Council, etc.

890
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 5: Is still viable and I'm working literally every single day

891
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:26,920
Speaker 5: too and my whole team to see to it that

892
00:46:27,000 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 5: it doesn't escalate into a regional war, but it easily can.

893
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:33,400
Speaker 12: So it easily could escalate.

894
00:46:33,440 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 10: And that's the other complicating factor in this Joe that yes,

895
00:46:36,560 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 10: they want to achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas,

896
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 10: which is a proxy of Iran, and yet the threat

897
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 10: of Iran is still very much hanging over Israel, as

898
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 10: an Israeli military spokesperson just delivered a televised statement moments

899
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 10: ago saying that they are at the highest state of alert.

900
00:46:53,000 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 10: So for more on this, we bring in down Natasha Hall.

901
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 10: She a senior fellow with the Middle East Program at

902
00:46:56,960 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 10: the Center for Strategic and International Studies. So Natasha, were

903
00:47:00,800 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 10: really on watch for two things this week that theoretically,

904
00:47:04,040 --> 00:47:07,720
Speaker 10: at least to me, would seem that they would counter

905
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:11,160
Speaker 10: act each other or they contradict each other to a

906
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 10: certain extent, reaching a ceasefire agreement, which would be cooperation

907
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 10: between Israel and Hamas. At the same time that Hamas,

908
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,400
Speaker 10: which is a proxy for Iran, is potentially going to

909
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 10: take part or at least could in an Iranian retaliation

910
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:28,760
Speaker 10: against Israel. What are you actually expecting will go down

911
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:30,760
Speaker 10: in the coming days.

912
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:33,640
Speaker 13: Well, thanks for having me. I think that's a perfect

913
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 13: way to put it. It's essentially a checkmate at the

914
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 13: moment between Iran and Israel. As you had mentioned earlier,

915
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:45,759
Speaker 13: Israel had assassinated Ismail Hanie, who is the top sort

916
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 13: of humass negotiator within Tehran, in a very highly secure

917
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 13: IERGC building. This was a huge humiliation for Iran and

918
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 13: they felt like they probably would have to respond in

919
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,120
Speaker 13: some way. At the same time, you see a new

920
00:48:01,120 --> 00:48:04,759
Speaker 13: Iranian government taking shape, which could be delaying sort of

921
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 13: a response towards Israel, and you also have these ceasefire

922
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 13: negotiations which are supposed to be jumpstarted this Thursday, and

923
00:48:13,760 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 13: many of the negotiators have said, this is the final

924
00:48:16,400 --> 00:48:17,440
Speaker 13: this is the final step.

925
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:18,000
Speaker 8: This is it.

926
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:22,879
Speaker 13: There won't be any more real efforts, doesn't You don't

927
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 13: know what that means. But Iran is in a very

928
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:29,959
Speaker 13: difficult situation. They know that any kind of retaliation would

929
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 13: likely attracts a much larger Israeli retaliation, and at the

930
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,080
Speaker 13: same time they also know that it could blow up

931
00:48:38,120 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 13: the ceasefire negotiations.

932
00:48:41,320 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 2: What does it tell you, Natasha, when you see the

933
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,880
Speaker 2: news that we're seeing at the Pentagon Here the Secretary

934
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:53,680
Speaker 2: of Defense surging the guided missile submarine USS Georgia and

935
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 2: the aircraft carrier Strike Group Abraham Lincoln into the area.

936
00:48:58,520 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 2: What is the Pentagon bracing for.

937
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:06,000
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean we see aircraft and warships and even

938
00:49:06,040 --> 00:49:09,120
Speaker 13: a submarine heading into the region. I think a lot

939
00:49:09,160 --> 00:49:12,840
Speaker 13: of this could be also, what posturing making it known

940
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,040
Speaker 13: that the United States will be there if there is

941
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 13: any regional escalation and hoping to sort of check it

942
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 13: before it begins with that predominant posture in the region

943
00:49:24,719 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 13: that said it will be there if it needs to

944
00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 13: be used. But I think that what they're hoping to

945
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 13: do is to signal signal something to Iran and to Israel.

946
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:37,600
Speaker 13: I think that regional escalation should not be in the

947
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 13: cards at this point, at this very very tenuous point

948
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:42,200
Speaker 13: of ceasefire negotiations.

949
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:46,480
Speaker 10: Well, and considering at the parties in those negotiations are

950
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 10: not just Israel and Hamas, it is also the US

951
00:49:49,880 --> 00:49:52,879
Speaker 10: and Egypt and Cutter and these are the allies who

952
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,400
Speaker 10: have been pushing for these talks to take place this

953
00:49:55,520 --> 00:49:58,960
Speaker 10: coming Thursday. What role are they playing here? And how

954
00:49:59,000 --> 00:50:01,600
Speaker 10: do you expect the dip matic back channels between these

955
00:50:01,640 --> 00:50:04,879
Speaker 10: countries and others in Tehran or elsewhere are working right now?

956
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 13: Yeah, I mean this has been the really fascinating part.

957
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 13: You actually saw the Jordanian Foreign Minister go to Tehran

958
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:14,680
Speaker 13: for the first time a high level diplomat from Jordan

959
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 13: has gone to Iran in about twenty years, to really

960
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:21,240
Speaker 13: try to take the pulse I think of the Iranian regime.

961
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:25,160
Speaker 13: You saw this unprecedented joint statement from cut Out in

962
00:50:25,200 --> 00:50:28,920
Speaker 13: Egypt and the United States on Friday, really imploring the

963
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 13: warring parties to take these ceasefire negotiations seriously and get

964
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:35,760
Speaker 13: it done. So you have a lot of other players here,

965
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:40,800
Speaker 13: and that could be who Iran goes to for their response.

966
00:50:40,880 --> 00:50:45,360
Speaker 13: These other players, like the houthis to to try to

967
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 13: demonstate some kind of plausible deniability for a military retaliation

968
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 13: on Israel, and that could be what US forces, the

969
00:50:55,480 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 13: US Defense Department is bracing for at the moment, because

970
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 13: it remains to be seen where that response will come from,

971
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 13: and so it makes sense to have this sort of

972
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:08,960
Speaker 13: overwhelming presence in the region at the moment.

973
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 2: Natasha, there was a strike, an Israeli strike on Saturday

974
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 2: in Gaza against a school killed nearly one hundred Palestinians,

975
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,320
Speaker 2: and the Idea of says there were Hamas fighters operating

976
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:25,400
Speaker 2: in that school. But this is just yet another example

977
00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 2: of why so many people have been upset about what's

978
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:32,120
Speaker 2: happening here, calling for restraint, calling for the protection of

979
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,880
Speaker 2: Palestinian civilians. This is one of the deadliest bombings that

980
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 2: we've seen in this ten month conflict. Is it just

981
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:42,759
Speaker 2: part of the day to day headline now or could

982
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:46,360
Speaker 2: this in fact jeopardize a ceasefire from being reached this week?

983
00:51:48,560 --> 00:51:52,200
Speaker 13: I mean, unfortunately, it wasn't a new incident. We'd seen

984
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 13: schools that are being used as essentially displacement camps being

985
00:51:57,239 --> 00:51:59,760
Speaker 13: bombed about five times in just the past few weeks.

986
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 13: This one was particularly devastating, probably killed around one hundred people.

987
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:09,080
Speaker 13: There are about six thousand people that were sheltering in

988
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 13: this school mosque compound that had been told to evacuate

989
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:16,920
Speaker 13: from other areas by Israeli forces. So I think it

990
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 13: just shows the sort of the lack of clarity on

991
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 13: how serious warring parties, including Israel, are about ceasefire negotiations

992
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,800
Speaker 13: and really the way forward, because at the end of

993
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 13: the day, if Israel still sees the elimination of Hems

994
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 13: as the end goal, it remains to be seen how

995
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:39,839
Speaker 13: you can get these ceasefire negotiations done with that very

996
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:44,400
Speaker 13: same group, and that's why all of these various attacks

997
00:52:45,280 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 13: are so devastating for Palestinians and for their future as well.

998
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 10: All Right, Natasha, it's always great to have you here

999
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 10: on Balance of Power. We really appreciate your time, as

1000
00:52:55,600 --> 00:52:57,520
Speaker 10: we are all on watch for what happens Thursday or

1001
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 10: potentially even sooner. Natasha Hall of Center for Strategic and

1002
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:03,920
Speaker 10: International Studies, where she is a Senior Fellow with the

1003
00:53:03,920 --> 00:53:05,279
Speaker 10: Middle East Program, Thank you.

1004
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,799
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1005
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1006
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,439
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1007
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

1008
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.