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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay, and then Proud Otto with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Technically it is a district work period that they're in

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Speaker 2: right now, but others would call it recess. They'll return

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Speaker 2: to the capital next week, and when they do so,

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Speaker 2: the House could in pretty short order potentially be facing

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Speaker 2: down a vote on Ukraine eight. At least that's the

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Speaker 2: signal from House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was talking on

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Speaker 2: Fox last night about the idea, as well as what

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Speaker 2: that could actually look like. Some suggestions of the aid

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Speaker 2: coming in the form of a loan potentially money from

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Speaker 2: frozen Russian assets being put toward Ukraine. The question is

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Speaker 2: can it go anywhere? And can he keep the Speaker's

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Speaker 2: gabble if he moves forward with this. Joining us now

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Speaker 2: is Kate Ackley, who reports on Congress for Bloomberg Government.

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Speaker 2: So Kate, first just walk us through what exactly it

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Speaker 2: seems that Johnson is propositioning here when it comes to

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Speaker 2: Ukraine AID. Keeping in mind we haven't seen an actual

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Speaker 2: plan on paper or any kind of legislative text.

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Speaker 3: Right well, you're you hit the exact points that he

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Speaker 3: made last night in that interview. I think he called

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Speaker 3: them sort of innovations that he might look at some

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Speaker 3: you know, innovations to move this measure. I mean, I

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Speaker 3: think we're still in a lot of the same with

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Speaker 3: a lot of the same options as we were a

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Speaker 3: couple of weeks ago. You remember, at the beginning of

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Speaker 3: we call it a recess, at the beginning of the

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Speaker 3: just just to kick off the recess, Marjorie Taylor Green,

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Speaker 3: you know, entered that potential sort of motion to vacate

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Speaker 3: the chair, which you know is nothing happening with that

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Speaker 3: right now, but it's that sort of thread that looms

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Speaker 3: over speaker Mike john as he looks through these options.

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Speaker 3: I think he's basically right now been trying to set expectations.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's been talking about that he is dealing

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Speaker 3: with a historically sort of low number majority, that he

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Speaker 3: doesn't have a lot of options, but you know, some

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Speaker 3: of them still include, you know, where we can see

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Speaker 3: a discharge petition where you see a majority from you know,

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Speaker 3: including Democrats trying to move the Senate bill that's still

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Speaker 3: out there. But but Mike Johnson, Speaker Johnson's been talking

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Speaker 3: about adding some innovations to this this piece of legislation,

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Speaker 3: like you said, using maybe funding the Ukraine Aid with

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Speaker 3: money that's been seized from Russian oligarchs one of the

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Speaker 3: ideas that he has floated. So we'll be watching that

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Speaker 3: as as he sort of looks at that over the

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Speaker 3: next few days.

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Speaker 2: Well, Kate, I'm glad you brought up as well, the

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Speaker 2: fact that there is a motion to vacate hanging over

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Speaker 2: his head. He did say in that interview last night

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Speaker 2: that he's been texting with Marjorie Taylor. Green referred to

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Speaker 2: her at one point as a friend, said they're going

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Speaker 2: to talk next week. Is the fact that he is

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Speaker 2: out there vocally talking about Ukraine Aid, which is what

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Speaker 2: she said would be the triggering effect essentially that that

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Speaker 2: vote is what would actually bring the motion to vacate

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Speaker 2: forward into that privileged resolution. Potentially, is he calling her

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Speaker 2: bluff or does he think if it's Ukraine Aid he

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Speaker 2: is offering that Democrats are going to be willing to

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Speaker 2: step up and save him.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think both of those things, you know, could

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Speaker 3: be that could be going on. He thinks that Democrats

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Speaker 3: might be there to save him. He's also tried to say,

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Speaker 3: you know, with this like he's called it a historically

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Speaker 3: low majority for House Republicans. He's really tried to message

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Speaker 3: that the more they kind of put their divisions on display,

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Speaker 3: the worse they are off in terms of negotiating with

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Speaker 3: Democrats on this and other things. So's he's certainly trying

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Speaker 3: to bring that message that you know, they should be unified,

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Speaker 3: which they have not been, you know, that and the

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Speaker 3: things that are on the horizon Ukraine Aid, but other

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Speaker 3: things like the Foreign Intelligence Surveillan Act, you know, reauthorization.

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Speaker 3: These are things that divide Republicans that are on the

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Speaker 3: agenda ahead. So you know, yes, he's said he was

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Speaker 3: texting with Marjorie Taylor Green. She also said the day

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Speaker 3: that she, you know, entered that motion to vacate, you know,

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Speaker 3: threw that out there basically to have that hanging over

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Speaker 3: his head, that it wasn't personal that she you know,

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Speaker 3: likes Speaker Johnson personally, but she's unhappy with the policies.

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Speaker 3: He too said in his own messaging, you know that

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Speaker 3: he didn't like some of the policies that Republicans have

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Speaker 3: agreed to, but that they don't have a lot in

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Speaker 3: their own hand because they have this tiny majority in

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Speaker 3: the House. They don't hold the Senate, and their party

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Speaker 3: doesn't hold the White House. So he he's kind of saying,

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Speaker 3: what do you expect me to be able to do?

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Speaker 3: He has said that he's looking to November. He's fundraising

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Speaker 3: this week. You know, he's starting off not with the

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Speaker 3: level of fundraising that his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy had, just

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Speaker 3: a huge fundraising network, so he's been working to build

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Speaker 3: up his fundraising network, and he's saying, you know, Republicans

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Speaker 3: need to grow the majority in the House, which is

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Speaker 3: a tall, tall order.

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Speaker 2: All right, Kate Ackley of Bloomberg Government, great reporting, Thank

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Speaker 2: you so much for joining us on Bloomberg Television and Radio.

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Speaker 2: Of course, as we debate the future over aid for Ukraine,

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Speaker 2: it's worth noting that in that supplemental package that did

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Speaker 2: pass the Senate, it wasn't just aid for Ukraine but

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Speaker 2: also Taiwan and Israel. And on the subject of Israel,

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Speaker 2: we have much to discuss there as the war in

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Speaker 2: Hamasa is still ongoing, approaching the six month mark, and

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Speaker 2: we heard from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a

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Speaker 2: news conference yesterday saying he plans to have the military

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Speaker 2: move a million Palestinian civilians out of the southern city

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Speaker 2: of Rafa in Gaza and then move in to attack

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Speaker 2: the remaining Hamas battalions in that city. This of courses,

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Speaker 2: he was also facing tens of thousands of protesters in

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Speaker 2: Israel calling for a change in government. Joining us now

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Speaker 2: is an expert on the subject of Israel, Aaron David

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Speaker 2: Miller is with us, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for

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Speaker 2: International Piece. It's always great to have you here on

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. First of all, how hard will

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Speaker 2: it be to netnya who actually accomplish what he says

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Speaker 2: he is going to moving a million people safely out

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Speaker 2: of Rafa, getting them aid, and then going in to

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Speaker 2: finish the job of eradicating Hamas. Can this actually be

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Speaker 2: done credibly?

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Speaker 4: You know, I have no doubt that the Israelis can eliminate,

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Speaker 4: at least as an organized military presence Hamas's remaining battalions

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Speaker 4: in Rafa.

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Speaker 5: The idea of.

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Speaker 4: Moving one point three four million people, If the Israelis

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Speaker 4: had three months, the Israelis were tightly coordinated both with

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Speaker 4: the United States and international aid organizations. If the Israelis,

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Speaker 4: together with its organizations, could create sanctuaries where in fact

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Speaker 4: Palestinians would have access to potable water, to shelter, to sanitation,

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Speaker 4: medical facilities, you could imagine that it would be possible

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Speaker 4: under those Under these circumstances, with pressure mounting, particularly with

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Speaker 4: respect to release in hostages, and the Israelis persuaded that

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Speaker 4: only by going into Rafa, will Hamas be persuaded to

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Speaker 4: cut any sort of deal to release hostages seems highly unlikely.

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Speaker 4: But I think the only saving grace here, frankly, is

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Speaker 4: that we are weeks, perhaps even more weeks away, not

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Speaker 4: until May, I would imagine with the Israelis monsters nupers,

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Speaker 4: and today, even as we speak to senior members of

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Speaker 4: mister mister Nettenai's government, I've been talking virtually with Jake Sullivan,

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Speaker 4: National Security Advisor, and other administration officials. This was the

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Speaker 4: much delayed bally Who'd Visit that was supposed to take

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Speaker 4: place last week, canceled as a consequence of the American

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Speaker 4: extension on you and Security Council resolution by the Prime Minister.

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Speaker 4: But those conversations took place today, I suspect they'll be

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Speaker 4: ongoing because the administration.

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Speaker 5: Understand I suspect, has real.

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Speaker 4: Concerns about whether or not the Israelis can do what

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Speaker 4: they need to do in Rafa without endangering hundreds of

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Speaker 4: thousands of Palestinians.

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Speaker 2: So maybe there is the opportunity for the US to

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Speaker 2: express those views, to provide suggestions that they have said

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Speaker 2: as they have said they will for alternatives to how

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Speaker 2: the operation in Rafa could be handled. But it's still

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Speaker 2: the remaining question is whether or not the Israelis are

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Speaker 2: hearing that message, whether they're giving much credence at all

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Speaker 2: to whatever the US has to say.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's a very good question. The other intercening development,

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Speaker 4: of course, could be an agreement. Negotiators are now in

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Speaker 4: cover Israelis, Egyptians, cutteries, Americans to try to broke it,

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Speaker 4: a broker a limited exchange hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and

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Speaker 4: a temporary let's call a temporary cease fire.

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Speaker 5: For six weeks.

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Speaker 4: That might actually create a situation where you could break

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Speaker 4: the battlefield dynamic. But again, mister Ninteno, has said so

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Speaker 4: many times that they've got to do raff quote unquote

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Speaker 4: do rafa.

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Speaker 5: He's really public, including the.

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Speaker 4: War cabin At Benny Gantz, who is the putative successor,

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Speaker 4: if you believe the polls, and I do, Should elections

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Speaker 4: be held today or even three months from now, Nintonia

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Speaker 4: would not be able to put together a government. But

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Speaker 4: the vast majority of the Israeli public is still very

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Speaker 4: much supportive, not of Ntoniell, but of his warriams.

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Speaker 2: Well, and of course we saw the Israeli public, or

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Speaker 2: at least tens of thousands of members of the Israeli

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Speaker 2: public out over the weekend protesting calling for new elections.

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Speaker 2: And I just wonder to what extent you think that

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Speaker 2: domestic pressure would actually change the behavior of BB Netanyahu,

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Speaker 2: Knowing there also was great pressure and a long period

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Speaker 2: of protests over the judicial reform that he was trying

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Speaker 2: to push through, and it took a long time for

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Speaker 2: that actually to turn into changes in those proposals. What influence,

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Speaker 2: if any, do those protesters have.

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Speaker 4: I'm glad you referred to the mass protests in a

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Speaker 4: country of nearly ten million people, hundreds of thousands of

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Speaker 4: people out in the streets forty plus weeks in a row.

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Speaker 5: I'm wondering, frankly whether or.

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Speaker 4: Not, on any issue we would be capable of doing

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Speaker 4: something quite like that. But it stalled the judicial, it

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Speaker 4: prevented Ninteniel from acting, and I think mass public opinion

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Speaker 4: and demonstrations is now the new force in Israeli politics.

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Speaker 4: The problem is there's no mechanism.

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Speaker 5: Right now.

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Speaker 4: To topple this Israeli government. If there aren't defections from

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Speaker 4: mister Natiniao's coalition, and they probably won't be, there's no

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Speaker 4: way to call for new elections. And the notion of

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Speaker 4: constructive vote of no confidence where the parties would identify

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Speaker 4: a prime minister prime ministerial candidate they got more than

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Speaker 4: sixty plus one votes that could create a new government

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Speaker 4: without elections, that's almost impossible. And Benjamin Attaniell, on trial

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Speaker 4: for bribery, fraud, breach of trust, is not going to resign,

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Speaker 4: so I think right now there's no mechanism to remove him.

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Speaker 4: I think if this war down shifts, then I think

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Speaker 4: the issue of accounting and accountability will come to the

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Speaker 4: four And it strikes me as almost impossible to imagine

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Speaker 4: that a prime minister who's presided of the worst terror

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Speaker 4: attack in the history the state of Israel, the Bloody's

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Speaker 4: Day for Jews since the Nazi Alocaust, is going to

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Speaker 4: be able to survive.

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Speaker 5: Every poll suggests he can't and won't.

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Speaker 2: Meantime, we're still getting fresh news out of the weekend, Aaron,

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Speaker 2: and we want to be careful with this is This

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Speaker 2: is just reporting from Iranian and Syrian state media, but

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Speaker 2: they are reporting today that an Israeli airstrike on Iran's

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Speaker 2: embassy compound in Syria has killed a number of people,

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Speaker 2: including a top military commander, Mohammad Raza Zahiti Zaheti rather

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Speaker 2: a high ranking Iranian general who had been linked to

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Speaker 2: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard CORP. Is that a major escalation

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Speaker 2: in this conflict when we're talking about strikes in Syria

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Speaker 2: against Iranian's keeping in mind that it hasn't just been

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Speaker 2: Israel versus Hamas, but other Iranian proxies active in this

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Speaker 2: region as well since October seventh.

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Speaker 4: Add to that the fact that these early struck in

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Speaker 4: December and killed a top IRGC commander, rest As Ahiti,

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Speaker 4: though I think it was even more senior than the

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Speaker 4: one they killed last year. If you told me that

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Speaker 4: six months into this war which you have is a

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Speaker 4: mini confrontation every single day between Isbula and Israeli Israelis

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Speaker 4: along the Israeli Lemnies border, that we wouldn't have had

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Speaker 4: a major escalation.

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Speaker 5: I wouldn't have believed you.

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Speaker 4: Although his bull end Is and the Iranians have been

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Speaker 4: operating under a kind of escalatory threshold simply and willing

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Speaker 4: unwilling to take the kinds of steps that could trigger

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Speaker 4: a major escalation. We talk on major escalation, we're talking

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Speaker 4: about an Israelis bull of war which in six summer

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Speaker 4: of O six shut down the northern half of the

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Speaker 4: Middle East. Most preeminent military power Israel. This time around,

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Speaker 4: it's well, it's got between one hundred and fifty thousand

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Speaker 4: and two of one thousand high trajectory weapons of various ranges,

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Speaker 4: lethalities and precision. You don't want to go there because

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Speaker 4: you could easily in that situation morph into strikes by

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Speaker 4: the US and or Israel on Iranian territory. Ron's retaliation

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Speaker 4: with ballistic missiles. Then you'd see something the Middle East

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Speaker 4: has never experienced before, which is a major regional war.

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Speaker 5: I don't think you're going to get there.

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Speaker 4: But certainly Israelis have not claimed responsibility for this, but

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Speaker 4: that's this sort of escalation could in fact trigger an

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Speaker 4: escalatory cycle.

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Speaker 5: Hopefully it won't.

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Speaker 2: Well, And while we're considering other forces in the Middle

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Speaker 2: East and just our remaining minute here with you. Over

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Speaker 2: the weekend as well, we did get news out of

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Speaker 2: Turkey the party of President Airdowan suffering an unprecedented defeat

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Speaker 2: in municipal elections. Just how consequential is what's happening in

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Speaker 2: Turkey for the balance in the wider Middle East.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure it has much of an impact yet,

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Speaker 4: at least in the broader Middle East. I think it

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Speaker 4: does have consequences for Airdowan, who is from a done

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Speaker 4: Bull he served as mayor. He considers it a major stronghold.

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Speaker 4: The fact that one of his key opponents actually best

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Speaker 4: at him by significant number of votes doesn't augur well

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Speaker 4: for his legacy or perhaps for the policies that he

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Speaker 4: wants to continue to push for internally in Turkey. So

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Speaker 4: again I'm not sure you're talking about a major regional consequence,

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Speaker 4: but certainly for internal Turkish politics is very significant.

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Speaker 2: All right, So maybe some domestic pressures in Turkey as

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Speaker 2: well as in Israel against their respective leaders. Aaron David Miller.

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Speaker 2: Always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much for joining us. He, of course,

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Speaker 2: is Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

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Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 2: We have to talk to our signature political panel, Rick

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Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno. They'll be with us on the

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Speaker 2: other side of this break. This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast, kens

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roud

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Speaker 1: Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: Welcome back, indeed to Washington, where we are broadcasting to

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Speaker 2: you live on Bloomberg Television and Radio. I'm here. Joe

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Speaker 2: Matthew is taking a well deserved day off, and Congress

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Speaker 2: is taking the day off today as well. Actually the

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Speaker 2: rest of this week. They're still on recess or the

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Speaker 2: district work period, whatever you want to call it, but

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Speaker 2: they might have some work to do. When they return,

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Speaker 2: specifically on aid for Ukraine. We heard from HOW Speaker

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson on a Fox News interview last night talking

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Speaker 2: about potentially a path forward for a vote this month,

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Speaker 2: in the month of April. But he's floating some ideas

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Speaker 2: of what form it could take, including potentially being a

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Speaker 2: loan or taking frozen Russian assets which could be complicated

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Speaker 2: and need Europe involved, and using that to pay for

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Speaker 2: Ukraine's war effort. So with more, let's bring in now

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Speaker 2: our signature political panel, Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno. So

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Speaker 2: it seems Genie that he is looking at putting this

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Speaker 2: on the floor despite the threats to his speakership that

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Speaker 2: might result from Marjorie Taylor Green, who was already filed

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Speaker 2: but not acted upon a motion to vacate. There is

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Speaker 2: the question, though, before we get to his future, about

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Speaker 2: what future, if any of these ideas would actually have,

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Speaker 2: Considering they don't need to just pass the House but

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Speaker 2: Democratic controlled Senate as well and be passed by a

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Speaker 2: Democratic president, could we see Democrats sign on to this

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Speaker 2: idea of it being alone rather than direct aid, or

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Speaker 2: of using Russian assets to pay for Ukraine's efforts.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, it was a fascinating interview because he

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Speaker 6: was like pert coach. He kept using these sort of

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Speaker 6: foobolish metaphors about hail Mary's and yards and dust and

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Speaker 6: all these things.

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Speaker 7: That I don't know about.

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Speaker 6: And then he also was like being a little bit

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Speaker 6: professorial and trying to you know, explain to the viewers

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Speaker 6: that he only has a one vote margin. He can't

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Speaker 6: get everything he wants. You know, we have to be incremental.

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Speaker 6: So it was a fascinating interview. You could really feel

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Speaker 6: the challenge that he has in front of him. You know,

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Speaker 6: the Democrats to these three ideas that he has been floating,

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Speaker 6: have been you know cold. To the idea of a loan,

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Speaker 6: which Donald Trump raised. I wouldn't say it's off this

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Speaker 6: table by any stretch of the imagination, but you know,

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Speaker 6: this is the challenge with all of these ideas. He's

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Speaker 6: got to make sure he keeps the Democrats on board

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Speaker 6: and of course brings his conservative as many as he

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Speaker 6: needs element together. I think it's doable. I think they

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Speaker 6: will get it done. The L and G idea is

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Speaker 6: one that's you know, creative, a little bit Felosian. Some

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Speaker 6: people are saying trying to trade there like an old

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Speaker 6: fashioned legislator. So, you know, I felt like five months in,

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Speaker 6: you know, Johnson is really getting his legislative feet under

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Speaker 6: him and really pushing and sounds like an old fashioned

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Speaker 6: legislature legislator here.

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Speaker 2: Well, we're five months into his speakership, and as these

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Speaker 2: five months have progressed, Rick, the majority that he's dealing

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Speaker 2: with has gotten smaller and smaller and smaller. And we'll

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Speaker 2: get even more so on April nineteenth, when Mike Gallagher,

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Speaker 2: the current chair of the China Selectimittee, retires early. So

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Speaker 2: this speaks to the one vote margin he was talking

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Speaker 2: about last night, and it also speaks to the idea

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Speaker 2: that he can't afford to lose many If a motion

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Speaker 2: to vacate vote actually was forced by Marjorie Taylor Green,

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Speaker 2: there wouldn't be that many people that would need to

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Speaker 2: join her to kick him out of a job. It

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Speaker 2: raises the question of whether she's just bluffing or if

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Speaker 2: he's deciding he's just going to call it and hope

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Speaker 2: Democrats step in.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Kyley, I mean you called it right.

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Speaker 8: I mean, here's a guy with basically a functioning one

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Speaker 8: vote majority today because Mike Gallagher isn't going to do

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Speaker 8: him any favors in showing up when he wants him,

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Speaker 8: even between now and the nineteenth. And then on top

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Speaker 8: of that, you've got all these added conflicts within the caucus,

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Speaker 8: including Marjorie Taylor Green's sort of threat to depose the chair.

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Speaker 8: Nobody wants a speaker's election between now and November. We've

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Speaker 8: got enough problems in the House of Representatives not to

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Speaker 8: go through the charade of trying to pick another leader

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Speaker 8: at this point in time, especially with all the political

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Speaker 8: pitfalls that fall in front Genie's right. He is up

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Speaker 8: to wanting to try and take a vote on Ukraine. Now,

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Speaker 8: it's taken him a while. We've had that Senate bill

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Speaker 8: path for over a month now and nobody in the

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Speaker 8: House has acted upon it. And and that is the

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Speaker 8: prescription for getting something done. The idea that you're going

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Speaker 8: to give a loan to the Ukraine so they can

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Speaker 8: then give that money back to the United States Industrial

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Speaker 8: Establishment to produce the guns and missiles that they need

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Speaker 8: is crazy. The idea here is that we are funding

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Speaker 8: our capacity to build here in this country, which is

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Speaker 8: sorely needed, and we don't need Ukraine. In the middle

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Speaker 8: of that transaction, they default. Who's going to go back

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Speaker 8: and get the money from, you know, the various weapons

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Speaker 8: manufacturers in the United States. Sorry, it doesn't work.

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Speaker 7: I love the.

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Speaker 8: Idea using REPO to use Russian dollars to fund a

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Speaker 8: war machine against them. The downside is you've got to

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Speaker 8: go get that money. It's in the form of assets

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Speaker 8: and banks and luxury yachts and houses. When is that

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Speaker 8: going to get done in time to you know, continue

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Speaker 8: the war, in time to sort of you know, build

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Speaker 8: a Ukraine after the fact. So none of these ideas

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Speaker 8: are particularly keen on anybody who really watches the Ukraine movement.

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Speaker 8: But at least he's talking about a vote, and if

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Speaker 8: there's a vote, there can be amendments, and if there

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Speaker 8: are amendments, then you get a bill that could potentially work.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Rick, to your point about seizing those frozen I

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Speaker 2: guess assets that already have been seized, but then deploying

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Speaker 2: them in Ukraine's favor. It's worth noting a lot of

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Speaker 2: those billions of dollars in assets are not held or

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Speaker 2: controlled by the US. A lot of that is zerop

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Speaker 2: So essentially, what you're saying is that's a lot harder

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Speaker 2: to actually make reality, even if the principle seems like

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Speaker 2: it could work in theory.

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Speaker 8: That's right, these guys have kicked the can in the House.

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Speaker 8: A lot of people losing their lives in Ukraine because

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Speaker 8: of it, and they need to get really serious about

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Speaker 8: this war. It's a particularly important war to Europe and.

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Speaker 7: To the United States.

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Speaker 8: Ukraine's shedding the blood and we need to shed some

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Speaker 8: treasure and together we can actually have an impact there.

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Speaker 8: And I think the heat is going to go on

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Speaker 8: the House of Representatives and Speaker John when they return

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Speaker 8: after a two week absence where they are out talking

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Speaker 8: to constituents rather than helping the people of the Ukraine.

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Speaker 8: But look, I get it. The schedule's a schedule. It's

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Speaker 8: the only thing that actually happens in Washington is vacation.

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Speaker 8: And so the reality is here. He's going to come

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Speaker 8: under intense scrutiny to get a bill pass, and a

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Speaker 8: bill pass quick.

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Speaker 2: Well, we know that getting funding bills in particular past

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Speaker 2: has proven very difficult. It took us almost half of

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Speaker 2: the entire fiscal year to get appropriation bills across the

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Speaker 2: floor just last month, and as we're seeing pan out

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Speaker 2: with Ukraine. Supplemental requests don't necessarily move quickly either, but

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Speaker 2: we're potentially going to see another coming from the White

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Speaker 2: House and the billions of dollars Genie related to rebuilding

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Speaker 2: the Francis Scott Keybridge in Baltimore. We got news from

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Speaker 2: the White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre just within

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Speaker 2: the last hour that President Biden will be making a

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Speaker 2: trip to Baltimore visiting the location of the bridge collapse

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Speaker 2: on Friday. When Congress returns. Do you expect that they

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Speaker 2: will deal with this in short order or we too

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Speaker 2: see some politicking around Emergency eight In this instance.

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Speaker 6: We always see politicking, So I wouldn't put that out.

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Speaker 6: I would hope they take this up. You know, upwards

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Speaker 6: of one billion to respond to this. And I think

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Speaker 6: you know the thing too, we you know, you hope

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Speaker 6: all members of Congress keep in mind is that unfortunately,

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Speaker 6: almost all of their districts and states will be impacted

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Speaker 6: by an emergency and need the support of emergency funds

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Speaker 6: from the federal government. So they should be supportive of

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Speaker 6: this one because unfortunately it will be them next. So

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Speaker 6: they will take this up. It is good the President

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Speaker 6: is visiting. But again with this Republican caucus and the

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Speaker 6: one vote margin, it's awfully difficult to know if you

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Speaker 6: see Johnson working with Democrats or Democrats helping get something

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00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 6: like this over the line, does it again cause him

437
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,239
Speaker 6: to be worried about his speakership that that is, you know,

438
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 6: the way in which he has had to operate for

439
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 6: five months, and I don't suspect it's going to get

440
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,439
Speaker 6: any better after East or break well in Genie.

441
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 2: Counting on Democratic votes also raises the question if Democrats

442
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 2: will vote for everything. We already discussed whether they'd get

443
00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 2: on board with some of these ideas around Ukraine, but

444
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 2: also on Israel, we know that Democrats, specifically more progressive Democrats,

445
00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 2: have been resistant to the idea of continuing to provide

446
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 2: funding for Israel without actual conditions around that aid, considering

447
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 2: what we're seeing happening to Palestinian life in Gaza. On

448
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 2: that note, we did just get some headlines out of

449
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 2: the spokesman for the State Department, Matt Miller, who says

450
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,919
Speaker 2: that the virtual talk with Israel on the subject of RAFA,

451
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 2: that southern Gaza city with more than a million Palestinians

452
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 2: taking refuge. There is now underway at the White House,

453
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 2: and the Secretary of State Antony Blincoln is among those participants. Rick,

454
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 2: just in our final minute here, do you expect much

455
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:53,159
Speaker 2: headway will be made in these talks today? Is Israel

456
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,840
Speaker 2: really listening to the US even if they're deciding to

457
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,360
Speaker 2: hear them out? Are they really hearing them?

458
00:24:58,960 --> 00:24:59,160
Speaker 9: Yeah?

459
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 8: I think there's been p progress made with BB's administration

460
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:08,280
Speaker 8: and the Israeli army over their conduct in Gaza, and

461
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 8: they've hesitated on the full engagement in Rafa until at

462
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 8: which point in time they could have these conversations with

463
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 8: the United States. So I'm hopeful that they can change

464
00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:21,119
Speaker 8: their tactics to the point where you still have an

465
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 8: effective military response to clean out hamas, but at the

466
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 8: same time minimize civilian casualties.

467
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: It's always a moving.

468
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 8: Target, but we're hopeful that these conversations will produce that result.

469
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 2: And Jennie, finally, are these conversations knowing that the US

470
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,119
Speaker 2: is changing their messaging toward Israel. President Biden being quite

471
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 2: public about that enough to actually change the mind of

472
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 2: voters who might be reluctant to cast a vote for

473
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 2: him in November because of his stance in being supportive

474
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 2: of Israel.

475
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 6: You know, I haven't seen evidence of that on the ground.

476
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,360
Speaker 6: The protests have been you know, continual. They have been

477
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 6: focused on the president in the administration and the Democrats.

478
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 6: I think those will likely continue, and I think we

479
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,560
Speaker 6: may have the first presidential election in a while in

480
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 6: which a foreign policy issue like this plays larger than

481
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 6: usual and the but I didn't team knows that, Hence

482
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 6: these conversations that they're having.

483
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 2: All Right, Jeanie Shanzeno and Rick Davis, our signature political

484
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:23,360
Speaker 2: panel kicking us off on this Monday. Thank you so much.

485
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

486
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Evocarplay and then

487
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 1: Froudoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

488
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

489
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 2: Now, we know that when the feed is looking at

490
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 2: inflationary forces, they like to look at core. They ex

491
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 2: out food and they x out energy because those are

492
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:51,960
Speaker 2: more volatile inputs. But that's not to say that the

493
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:56,120
Speaker 2: American voter isn't very cognizant of energy prices, specifically prices

494
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:58,280
Speaker 2: at the pump, which right now, on average, according to

495
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,119
Speaker 2: tripa A are at three fifty three a gallon the

496
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 2: continuing really the steady climb we have seen since the

497
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 2: start of the year. So for more on gas prices

498
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 2: and what exactly is happening, we are joined now by

499
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 2: Patrick Dehan. He is gas Buddy's head of petroleum analysis. Patrick,

500
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 2: great to have you back here on Bloomberg Television and radio.

501
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 2: When you look at really what has been just a

502
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 2: consistent upward trajectory in prices at the pump, how much

503
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 2: do you expect that will continue on further into twenty

504
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 2: twenty four. When do we hit the peak?

505
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 9: Well, if history is a guide, we usually hit a

506
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 9: peak anywhere in the next four day weeks. Depends on

507
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 9: refinery maintenance. But utilization numbers have been showing some improvement.

508
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 9: That is, refineries finishing their seasonal maintenance getting back online. Eventually.

509
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 9: That will contribute to gasoline supplies going up and that

510
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 9: should help put downward pressure on the pump. But that

511
00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 9: could take a little while to get here, and there

512
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 9: still could be some refinery issues that could prolong maintenance.

513
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 9: But here and now, I think we're getting close to

514
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 9: a top. But keep in mind the mid Atlantic and

515
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 9: Northeast still have to make the final step over to

516
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 9: summer gaso line and with it a jump of anywhere

517
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 9: from fifteen to forty cents a gallon is going to

518
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 9: be coming in those areas in the next few weeks.

519
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 2: Well, you talk about the mid Atlantic Patrick and specifically

520
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 2: when we think about the mid Atlantic, things have perhaps

521
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 2: changed over the last week in that the Port of

522
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 2: Baltimore and a lot of flow around that area have

523
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 2: been affected by the collapse of the Key Bridge. Do

524
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:27,719
Speaker 2: you expect that that actually is going to have an

525
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 2: impact on energy prices or is that really just hyper local?

526
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 9: Yeah, it certainly is hyper local. There are a few

527
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 9: terminals in the Baltimore area, but gasoline is continuing to

528
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 9: flow thanks to the Colonial Pipeline, which basically goes right

529
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,440
Speaker 9: through the backyard of where the bridge collapse occurred. Now,

530
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 9: the Port of Baltimore being closed then for movements of

531
00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 9: things like ethanol and refined products, but it's not typically

532
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 9: a big port when it comes to some of those,

533
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 9: so thankfully there is a pipeline here. Ethanol could be

534
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 9: a little bit of a challenge, but with the Coast

535
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 9: Guard and Army Corps of engineers starting to move on

536
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 9: potential reopening part of the port. I think that's very

537
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 9: good news. But the bottom line here is that the

538
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 9: Port of Baltimore is not going to have an impact

539
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 9: on what we see nationally now getting into some of

540
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 9: those talks obviously later this year, there have been some

541
00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,719
Speaker 9: talks about hurricane season being busier than normal. It's going

542
00:29:15,760 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 9: to be a big wildcard going into August and September,

543
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 9: just a couple of months before the election if we

544
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 9: do see a major hurricane that could disrupt refineries and

545
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 9: send gas prises temporarily higher.

546
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 2: And all of that, of course, is on the supply side,

547
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: right you have less supply but the same amount of demand.

548
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 2: That's what pushes prices upward. But it does raise the

549
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: question around demand as well. Patrick, we know that there

550
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 2: is a relationship between gas prices and consumer sentiment. They

551
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: see higher prices, consumers maybe feel not as good about

552
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 2: the economy or their inflation expectations move higher. But also

553
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 2: if they're feeling good about the economy and demanding more gasoline,

554
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 2: spending more at the pump, or at least you know,

555
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 2: continuing those activity, that also can drive prices higher. How

556
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 2: do you think about that relationship when it comes to demand.

557
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 9: Well, I mean, as you mentioned, the Fact has a

558
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 9: very interesting conversation about you know, when they start to

559
00:30:04,960 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 9: lower interest rates, I think that could be a negative

560
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 9: on gasoline demand. If Americans start to see some of

561
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 9: the numbers improving, well, it may cause them to go

562
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:15,720
Speaker 9: out and say, well, hey, I've got this extra money.

563
00:30:15,720 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 9: The cost of borrowing is improving, so maybe I'll take

564
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 9: a trip, or maybe I'll fill the improvement and interest

565
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 9: rates with some sort of increase in demand. So I

566
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 9: think that is the risk here is how quickly the

567
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 9: economy starts to fire back up and even more cylinders

568
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 9: if interest rates start to come down. But looking at

569
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 9: things now, that's where the euue transition also comes into view. Now,

570
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 9: the EU transition has been happening, but it's been slowing down.

571
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 9: Less Americans showing an appetite for ditching their internal combustion

572
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 9: engine vehicles. But all in all, twenty twenty four summer

573
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 9: gasoline demand will be nowhere near what we saw in

574
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 9: twenty nineteen. Part of the pandemic. There's still the additional

575
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 9: flexibility of working from home, and still a lot of

576
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 9: Americans who are feeling that gas prices as they drive

577
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 9: to work, seeing those prices are prohibiting them from going

578
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 9: out on a summer road trip.

579
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 5: In traveling.

580
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 2: Well, you mentioned the ev question. Of course, it was

581
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 2: just a few weeks ago that the EPA formally ruled

582
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 2: out its new emission standards looking out to twenty thirty

583
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 2: two here. But the idea is there's going to be

584
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 2: a larger representation of hybrid or at least all electric

585
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 2: vehicles for climate related purposes. That has gotten a good

586
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 2: deal of pushback from more conservative conservatives here in Washington.

587
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,760
Speaker 2: Of course, all of it playing a factor probably in

588
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: the election in November. Patrick, I know it's very hard

589
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 2: to dif and difficult to forecast these energy markets even

590
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 2: a month out, let alone seven months out. But come November,

591
00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 2: where do you think we will be in terms of

592
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 2: prices at the pump? Do you expect they will be

593
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 2: higher or lower than they are now?

594
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 9: I think there's going to be a lot of conspiracy theories.

595
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 9: In fact, I'm seeing a lot of them now, But

596
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 9: gas praise is almost always I can't think of a

597
00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 9: year as an exception go down into the cooler months,

598
00:31:54,480 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 9: and that's simply because Americans drive born this summer, they

599
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 9: drive less than the fall and winter, especially you know,

600
00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 9: the fall foliage tours or whatnot. I think after that,

601
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 9: as we get into early November, there's less reason for

602
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 9: Americans to be out on the road barring Thanksgiving. But

603
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 9: that is going to push gas prices lower starting in

604
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:13,959
Speaker 9: mid to late September. Again, hurricane season could be a

605
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 9: major wildcard, but I would forecast to see possibly tens

606
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 9: of thousands of stations seeing prices back below three dollars

607
00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 9: a gallon just in time for the election. And the

608
00:32:23,920 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 9: two are not connected. This is simply gas prices go

609
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,760
Speaker 9: up in the spring and they fall in the fall.

610
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 2: Well, of course, we have seen a lot of connection

611
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 2: between gas prices and potentially President Biden's approval rating when

612
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 2: it comes to the economy. We have seen under the

613
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 2: course of his administration him try to take action to

614
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 2: fix that, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order

615
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 2: to keep a lid, if you will, on prices. Do

616
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,080
Speaker 2: you expect at any point over the next year that

617
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 2: will be necessary?

618
00:32:52,160 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 9: Again, I can't think of any sort of action that

619
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 9: will require the spr although if you would have asked me,

620
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 9: you know, five before Russi's invasion of Ukraine. I wouldn't

621
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 9: have thought it would have been necessary as well. But

622
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,680
Speaker 9: when you see oil prices suddenly jump fifty to sixty

623
00:33:07,720 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 9: dollars of varil this time because of Russia's invasion, that's

624
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 9: really what the SPR, the definition of a strategic reserve

625
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 9: is is because there's a huge economic consequence to jolting

626
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 9: gas prices up, which follow oil. So I think in

627
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 9: this case, Americans obviously don't like high gas prices. What

628
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 9: they don't like even more is when they suddenly jump

629
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 9: fifty cents to eighty cents. So I don't think the

630
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 9: administration is going to tap the SPR. I don't really

631
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 9: see any action that would necessitate it. But having said that,

632
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 9: there's still tensions in the Middle East that are flaring

633
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 9: up and that could become a destabilizing factor later this year.

634
00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, obviously there's a lot going on around the world

635
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 2: to keep an eye on. Just in our final second

636
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 2: here with you, Patrick, in terms of what's going on

637
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,239
Speaker 2: around the country, where's the most expensive place and then

638
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: the cheapest place to buy gas right now?

639
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 9: Well, the most expensive if you're headed into California, the

640
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 9: average there back over five dollars a gallon some stations,

641
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 9: as you'll find on social media, closer to seven dollars.

642
00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 9: In some areas of California, the averages five. On the

643
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 9: other side of that, going down to areas like Mississippi, Oklahoma,

644
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 9: and Texas, you'll find some areas where most communities are

645
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,360
Speaker 9: still seeing gasoline below three dollars a gallon.

646
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 2: All right, Patrick Dahan of gas Buddy, thank you so much,

647
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 2: as always for joining us here.

648
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

649
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

650
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 1: royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

651
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

652
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

653
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 2: It's worth noting that before this week is out, we

654
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:49,080
Speaker 2: will mark six months since October seventh and the Hamas

655
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:53,800
Speaker 2: attacks against Israelis, and of course the resulting war between

656
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas which is still ongoing as we speak.

657
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 2: And of course Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Natan Yahoo was

658
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 2: the one speaking. Yesterday, held a news conference in which

659
00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 2: he talked about a plan to prepare to move more

660
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 2: than a million Palestinians out of Rafa, that's southern Gaza City,

661
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 2: and then carry out an attack against the remaining Hamas battalions.

662
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:18,280
Speaker 2: There is there is ongoing pressure both internationally and potentially

663
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: domestically as well for a ceasefire deal with the Mosses.

664
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 2: Tens of thousands of Israelis were protesting over this weekend

665
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 2: as well, calling for a new government. We want to

666
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,479
Speaker 2: break it all down now with Nick Wadhams, who leads

667
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 2: our US national security coverage here in Washington. He is

668
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: joining me in studios. So Nick, first of all, great

669
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: to see you. Happy happy Monday. As we heard from

670
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 2: Etnyahu over the weekend talking about how they're going to

671
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 2: move more than a million people out of Rafa, can

672
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 2: they realistically do that? How hard is that going to be?

673
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 10: I mean, that is the great question, and that's what

674
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:53,880
Speaker 10: the administration has really been pushing because Prime Minister Netnya,

675
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 10: who has said for many weeks you know, they intend

676
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,800
Speaker 10: to do this. The US has been pressing and saying, listen,

677
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,360
Speaker 10: you don't need to do this kind of military campaign.

678
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 10: We would rather see a campaign that relies on precision

679
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 10: strikes targeting the leaders of Hamas, but a full scale

680
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:09,000
Speaker 10: campaign like that.

681
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 7: Don't do it.

682
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 10: If you do do it, you need to give us

683
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 10: a credible plan for what you're going to do with

684
00:36:14,120 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 10: all these civilians who have fled to Rafa from the north,

685
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 10: and so far the administration says, you know, they just

686
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,400
Speaker 10: have not seen any sort of plan. I mean, a

687
00:36:21,440 --> 00:36:24,040
Speaker 10: million people is a lot of people to move. You're

688
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 10: going to have to house them, You're going to have

689
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 10: to feed them, provide medical care. Where do they go?

690
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 10: They can't go back to northern Gaza, so do they

691
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 10: go somewhere else Egypt? Is there going to be a

692
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 10: I mean, there's so many questions around this and so far,

693
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 10: I mean, this is a tension point between the US

694
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:39,880
Speaker 10: and Israel that we just have not seen resolve for

695
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:40,399
Speaker 10: several weeks.

696
00:36:40,520 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 2: Well, speaking of tension between the US and Israel are

697
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: perhaps more specifically between Benjamin Nenyahu and President Biden. We

698
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 2: heard from Senator Chris van Holland, the Democrat from Maryland,

699
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,879
Speaker 2: speaking on one of the Sunday shows this weekend, who said,

700
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 2: net Yahoo, this is a quote continues to essentially give

701
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 2: the finger to the President of the United States, and

702
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,760
Speaker 2: we're sending more bombs. Are we going to keep sending

703
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 2: bombs in the face of the fingernail?

704
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, Chris van Hollen has been one of

705
00:37:07,200 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 10: the most outspoken US senators on this issue, and he

706
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 10: is pushing this idea of conditioning more military aid on

707
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 10: humanitarian on improvements from the net Nyahu administration. So this

708
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 10: is not out of character for him so far, though. No,

709
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 10: the answer is the Biden administration has made clear that

710
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 10: they are going to support Israel through thick and thin.

711
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 10: There may be some effort on the margins or a

712
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 10: broader diplomatic effort to shape his campaign, but I very

713
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 10: strongly believe you are not going to see a situation

714
00:37:41,920 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 10: where the US suspends military aid along the lines of

715
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 10: what Chris van holln would want. I mean that just

716
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 10: the blowback would be so fierce and it goes against

717
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 10: everything we know about how President Biden sees this relationship.

718
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 2: So maybe there's limits to the pressure the US realistically

719
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 2: can apply on Netanyahu's government for that reason, but it

720
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 2: raises the question of what domestic pressure Netanyahu may face

721
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 2: though that maybe he's a bit more beholden to. Over

722
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 2: the weekend, tens of thousands of people out calling for

723
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 2: a new government something, mind you, which the Senate Majority

724
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:14,720
Speaker 2: Leader Chuck Schumer himself called for just a few weeks ago.

725
00:38:15,160 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 2: What does this do to net Nyahu's position and potentially

726
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 2: his conduct moving forward throughout this company.

727
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 10: Well, I mean, you know, these sort of protests are

728
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 10: not necessarily a new thing. You saw a lot of

729
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 10: this around the judicial reforms that his administration wanted to

730
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 10: push through, and it took a long time for his

731
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 10: administration to budge the central tension there is. Yes, you

732
00:38:35,400 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 10: may have thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of

733
00:38:38,440 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 10: people on the streets in Israel, but his cabinet is

734
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 10: so right wing, and the pressures he's take getting internally

735
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 10: are moving in exactly the opposite direction. Drive a harder bargain,

736
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 10: be harder against the Palestinians, hit them harder. So he's

737
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 10: going to have to balance those two things. But you know,

738
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 10: the issue is the the right wing colleagues he has

739
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 10: in the cabinet would be a much more imminent threat

740
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 10: to his grip on power if he decided to reverse course.

741
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 10: I mean, he would be gone in minutes, whereas these protests,

742
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 10: it looks like a big deal. But that's something he

743
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 10: could reasonably withstand for quite some time, so you're really

744
00:39:18,120 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 10: going to see a challenge and how he navigates on that.

745
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 10: But the judicial reforms are a great example. It took

746
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:26,640
Speaker 10: a very very long time for him to make any

747
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 10: sort of movement on that, so I wouldn't expect to

748
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 10: see anything happen really quickly here.

749
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 2: Okay, so that's the spot that the Israeli leader is

750
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 2: in it this time. I want to talk though about

751
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 2: another leader in the Middle East. The President of Turkey,

752
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 2: Regip type aradiwon there were municipal elections over the weekend,

753
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:45,200
Speaker 2: pretty unprecedented defeat where the opposition party actually gained ground

754
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: in a number of areas that have been a stronghold

755
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 2: for his governing party. What does what's happening in Turkey

756
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:56,320
Speaker 2: mean for broadly the conditions in the Middle East.

757
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 10: You know, it's a great question because the I think

758
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,880
Speaker 10: the issue with Ardion is that he doesn't actually face

759
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 10: any real challenge to his own power until twenty twenty

760
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 10: eight when he would come up for reelections. So it's

761
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 10: a blow. But is this going to shape or put

762
00:40:13,760 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 10: pressure on him internationally in terms of his position to

763
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 10: work as a powerbroker, his position in NATO sometimes as

764
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:23,760
Speaker 10: an irritzant. I mean, he is just sort of getting

765
00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 10: things back on track with the US and NATO. They

766
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 10: abandoned their blockage of Sweden's a session to NATO. So

767
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 10: you know, this is someone who the US and others,

768
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 10: they may have their problems with him, but they feel

769
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 10: that there is this is a relationship that can be managed.

770
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:43,399
Speaker 10: This sort of domestic pressure. I think it's a big

771
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 10: deal for him in terms of what's going to happen

772
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 10: long term, but it's very long term. I mean, he

773
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 10: doesn't face any real threat to his legitimacy until twenty

774
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 10: twenty eight, so certainly a foreboding, a warning shot. But

775
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:58,000
Speaker 10: he's also had shown a great tendency in the past

776
00:40:58,040 --> 00:41:00,399
Speaker 10: to be able to use the power of the presentency

777
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 10: to sideline his opponents. So he's got a lot of

778
00:41:03,239 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 10: time to sort of pivot and figure out how to

779
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,799
Speaker 10: address this before he faces any real challenge to his

780
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 10: power in a few years.

781
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 2: All right, Nick Wadams, who leads our national security coverage

782
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 2: here in Washington, Thank you so much. Nick. Of course,

783
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:17,320
Speaker 2: running us through domestic pressures that the Turkish president is facing,

784
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:19,919
Speaker 2: the Israeli Prime minister is facing. Now, let's talk about

785
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,880
Speaker 2: the domestic pressures that the President of the United States

786
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:26,160
Speaker 2: is facing as he, of course campaigns for reelection. And

787
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 2: there is a great deal if you look at the

788
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 2: primary vote of those who are potentially not satisfied with

789
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 2: his handling of the war between Israel and Hamas, and

790
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 2: that has shown up in people voting uncommitted in democratic primaries.

791
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 2: On this subject, we want to turn now to Pat Dennis.

792
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 2: He is the president of American Bridge twenty first Century. Pat,

793
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 2: thank you so much for joining us here on balance

794
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 2: of power. We know that there is some dissatisfaction with

795
00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 2: a primary electorate in places like Michigan, for example, where

796
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 2: there is a heavy Arab and Muslim population, as this

797
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 2: with young people as well, with the way that the

798
00:42:00,600 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 2: president has handled this conflict. What does he need to

799
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 2: change moving forward in order to make sure those people

800
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 2: actually are willing to vote for him in November.

801
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 7: Hey, Kaylee, it's great to be back.

802
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:16,240
Speaker 11: So these issues are some of the most difficult issues

803
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 11: in American politics, and ultimately, you know, I think what

804
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 11: people want in a president is a steady hand on

805
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,799
Speaker 11: the tiller, somebody who's reasonable somebody who can take you know,

806
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 11: these problems, you know, deal with them as they change,

807
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 11: and you know, somebody that you can trust in there

808
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 11: and not be freaked out all the time, which I

809
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 11: think is in real contrast to Donald Trump's just like

810
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 11: completely erratic leadership on foreign policy but really on everything.

811
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 11: But also the current chaos in the House of Representatives,

812
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:48,399
Speaker 11: I think is also an incredible contrast to just how

813
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 11: can we govern with these people? You know, how can

814
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 11: we govern globally with folks who can't even.

815
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 7: Govern their caucus.

816
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 11: So, you know, we have challenges inside the government, We

817
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 11: have challenges with you know, some of the hardest geopolitical

818
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:06,239
Speaker 11: challenges that presidents face. But ultimately, you know, it is

819
00:43:06,280 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 11: an issue of doing the work, showing up, and being

820
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:12,680
Speaker 11: a steady hand.

821
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 7: As opposed to erratic stuff we're getting from the Republicans.

822
00:43:16,719 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 2: But when it comes to this issue in particular of

823
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 2: what's happening in Gaza, the loss of Palestinian life, we

824
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 2: have seen this resonating specifically with young voters pat a

825
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 2: demographic that the president is going to need to hold

826
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 2: on to if he has any hopes of winning a

827
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 2: second term. Do you think with young voters in particular

828
00:43:35,000 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 2: that this vote, this issue is paramount or is it

829
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,560
Speaker 2: something else Like the economy, for example.

830
00:43:42,239 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 11: It's an important issue, but when you're a president, you're

831
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 11: president of the entire country and everything that's going on.

832
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 11: This is an extremely important issue. The economy is important.

833
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 11: Issues to loans are an important issue. All of these

834
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 11: things are extremely important. The contrast here is again, you

835
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 11: know with somebody like Donald Trump, who whose leadership and

836
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 11: statements on these things are frankly, frequently very disgusting and

837
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:08,760
Speaker 11: I think scare people a lot. So you've seen Donald

838
00:44:08,840 --> 00:44:14,399
Speaker 11: Trump almost deliberately jettison whole portions of the Republican Party

839
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:18,359
Speaker 11: saying he doesn't need he doesn't need Nikki Haley supporters,

840
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 11: he doesn't need anybody who isn't automatically loyal to him.

841
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 11: And I think that right there is absolutely the wrong

842
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:29,520
Speaker 11: strategy to get elected president. But that's what you see

843
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,279
Speaker 11: Donald Trump doing, as opposed with Joe Biden, who is

844
00:44:33,080 --> 00:44:35,200
Speaker 11: working to make the country better.

845
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:40,239
Speaker 2: Well, you raised former President Trump. Of course, there was

846
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 2: some news over the weekend, or at least a dialogue

847
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,719
Speaker 2: over the weekend, about something that Trump had reposted on

848
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 2: true social It was a video of basically traffic that

849
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:54,840
Speaker 2: included a pickup truck which emblazoned on the back of

850
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 2: the truck was an image of the President President Biden

851
00:44:58,040 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 2: Hogtide laying on his side in the bed. Of course,

852
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:03,279
Speaker 2: the Biden campaign was very quick to seize on that,

853
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 2: talking about how this was essentially another example of Trump

854
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 2: encouraging political violence, whereas the Trump campaign alluded to the

855
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 2: fact that Democrats are making a very big deal of

856
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 2: this at the same time that they're weaponizing the Justice

857
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 2: Department in their words against him. Should the Biden campaign

858
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:24,520
Speaker 2: be reacting to each and everything that we see from

859
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:27,040
Speaker 2: President Trump on social media or everything he says in

860
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 2: a press conference, or is it best to let some

861
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 2: things go? What should the strategy be here in dealing

862
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 2: with who you're going to be up against in the

863
00:45:35,200 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 2: general election?

864
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,319
Speaker 11: Well, this is the dilemma, right You either let it

865
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 11: go and then what does he do? He pushes it further,

866
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 11: he pushes it further, or you know, you call it

867
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 11: out every time and then you're playing on his playing field.

868
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 7: Honestly, the real answer.

869
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 11: Here is that Donald Trump oversaw political violence against the

870
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 11: United States of America. Like this is who the guy is?

871
00:45:57,160 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 11: This is what he's done. It's what he's going to do,

872
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,200
Speaker 11: and that is a very important part of the message overall.

873
00:46:03,400 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 11: So look, he's not taking us off message by promoting

874
00:46:06,040 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 11: political violence.

875
00:46:06,880 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 7: That is something that.

876
00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 11: People need to know about, something they need to remember

877
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:11,439
Speaker 11: that this is a guy.

878
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 7: We had a.

879
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 11: Long history of peaceful transitions of power in this country

880
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 11: until Donald Trump came into office.

881
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:20,560
Speaker 7: So this is we got to talk about it. You

882
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 7: can't just let this stuff go.

883
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,480
Speaker 11: If you do let it go, he'll take it further

884
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:26,919
Speaker 11: and who knows, you know, people could get hurt.

885
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 2: Well, pat and we know President Biden has put a

886
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 2: lot of focus into contrasting himself with President Trump, be

887
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 2: it for questions around political violence or the state of democracy,

888
00:46:37,120 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 2: But theoretically he could also need to contrast himself with

889
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 2: others including RFK Junior for example, potentially a no labels ticket.

890
00:46:44,120 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 2: If we ever get the announcement of who actually is

891
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 2: going to be on it, does more effort need to

892
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,919
Speaker 2: go into acknowledging those potential third party threats and trying

893
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 2: to counter them.

894
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:54,399
Speaker 7: Yeah.

895
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 11: Well, at my organization in American Bridge twenty first Century,

896
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:00,120
Speaker 11: a big part of what we do is opposition research

897
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 11: on candidates and somebody like RFK, it's actually kind of interesting.

898
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 7: He the less people know about him, the better he does.

899
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 11: If they just know the last name Kennedy, they go, oh,

900
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 11: you know, maybe this is kind of reasonable guy. But

901
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,440
Speaker 11: the second they learn about his positions, you know, his

902
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 11: also flirting with political violence, his you know, he's flirted

903
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 11: with a fifteen week abortion band, obviously, his extreme anti

904
00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:30,320
Speaker 11: vaccine rhetoric, all these things, the second people learn about them,

905
00:47:30,800 --> 00:47:33,760
Speaker 11: especially people who might otherwise be considering voting for Biden,

906
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 11: they're like, I'm out here, you know, I'm not voting

907
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 11: for this guy. So our job is really just to communicate.

908
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 11: And there's no world where OURFK runs are president without

909
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 11: anybody learning about him.

910
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 7: So we're happy to be here to tell the world.

911
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,799
Speaker 11: And no labels. Look, we would be doing the same

912
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 11: if they could figure out how to find a candidate,

913
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,560
Speaker 11: And if they do, I'll probably be saying the same thing.

914
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 2: Pat. We only have about a minute left, but we

915
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 2: know that President Biden has a great deal of cash

916
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:03,320
Speaker 2: at his disposal. He raised more than twenty five million

917
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 2: dollars in one night last week alongside former presidents Biden

918
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 2: and Clinton. More than one hundred million dollars on hand.

919
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:14,080
Speaker 2: Should some of that be spent specifically on countering or

920
00:48:14,120 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 2: at least providing information on RFK or others, rather than

921
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:19,520
Speaker 2: just on going after Trump.

922
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:23,640
Speaker 11: Well, my organization, you know, we're a super pac. We're

923
00:48:23,640 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 11: separate from Joe Biden spending, but we've announced a two

924
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 11: hundred million dollar effort to just to communicate with swing voters.

925
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:33,800
Speaker 11: Part of that is the RFK stuff, So it's definitely

926
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 11: something that we're focusing on. I'm sure Joe Biden is

927
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 11: aware that this is also a priority. But yeah, this

928
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,760
Speaker 11: is the kind of thing where you can run ahead

929
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 11: of Donald Trump on money and we're happy to do so.

930
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:50,120
Speaker 11: But ultimately we're going to act like we're behind every

931
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 11: single day until election day and not take a single

932
00:48:52,040 --> 00:48:52,720
Speaker 11: vote for granted.

933
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 2: All right, Pat Dennis, always great to have you here

934
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 2: on Balance and Power. Thank you so much for your time.

935
00:48:58,600 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 2: Pat Dennis, of course, is the president over at American

936
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 2: Bridge twenty first Century.

937
00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:08,680
Speaker 9: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

938
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 9: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify

939
00:49:11,760 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 11: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

940
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:18,120
Speaker 11: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

941
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:19,360
Speaker 11: Bloomberg dot com.