WEBVTT - The Great Resignation Is Great for Low-Paid Workers 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carrol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.840 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.640 plus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.160 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000 analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.239 Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.200 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.760 pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us 0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:31.360 on YouTube. Searched Bloomberg Global News A couple of things 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:33.839 going on. Wearing a face mask more than have the 0:00:33.920 --> 0:00:36.559 risk of getting COVID. That's according to a review of 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:40.240 eight studies published in the British Medical Journey. And then, Tim, 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:42.559 you've got a more infectious new version of COVID nineteens 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:45.120 Delta variant spreading fast in the UK. It does seem 0:00:45.200 --> 0:00:48.239 less likely though, to cause symptomatic illness. But there you 0:00:48.240 --> 0:00:50.400 have it. Yeah, we've heard this story before, right right, 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:53.519 new variant. The most recent one that caused issues here 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:55.200 and around the world was the Delta variant. It has 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.040 been the delta variant, but epidemiologist and experts have been 0:00:58.080 --> 0:01:00.880 saying that this thing continues to mutate exactly. All right, 0:01:00.920 --> 0:01:04.320 let's get our daily check on the pandemic and the vaccine. 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:07.000 Joining us right now is Tara Kirksel, Senior Scholar for 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:09.480 the Center for Health Security and Assistant professor in the 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:12.640 Department of Environmental Health and Engineering over at Johns Hopkins 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:16.880 University Bloomberg School of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder, 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:19.520 Bloomberg GILP, and Bloomberg Philanthropist. She, by the way, an 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:22.800 Olympic medal winning athlete, which I just think is really cool. 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:26.720 She's on the phone from Bremerton, Washington. Tara, so great 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:30.760 to have you here. Uh, lots of information on a 0:01:30.880 --> 0:01:34.640 daily basis, We rely on folks like you and other 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:38.679 members of the medical community to really pull fact from fiction, 0:01:39.000 --> 0:01:44.399 if you will. Misinformation about all of it is so key. Yeah. Well, 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:47.080 you know, the real problem here is that miss misinformation 0:01:47.120 --> 0:01:50.160 really reduces trust, and so you know, when we're communicating 0:01:50.160 --> 0:01:52.680 about what you need to do to protect you and 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:55.320 your family, it's really hard because we have this in 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.080 pandemic where we just have so much information, and some 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.320 of it's true and some of it's not, and it's 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:02.840 just blasting people, and people just don't know what to believe. 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:05.000 So it's really tricky. And the problem here is now 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:07.760 people have sort of lost trust and there's an uptil 0:02:07.800 --> 0:02:10.320 babble here on you know, getting people to do the 0:02:10.360 --> 0:02:11.920 things you need to do to end the pandemic. Well, 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:16.480 somebody who studies this stuff closely, misinformation in particular, I'm 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:20.359 wondering what your research has told us and told you 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:22.799 about where this comes from. What is the number one 0:02:22.840 --> 0:02:27.280 source of this misinformation? Well, I mean there are different sources, right, 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:31.919 that can be different, you know, different political, different social, 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:36.240 different monetary motivation, and it's coming from all over the place. 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:38.640 But you know, I think that the important thing here 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:40.959 is to know that it's not just words, right, it 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:44.000 causes real harm. Um. And so like if we did it, 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:47.040 actually we did an economic analysis, um that you know, 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:50.239 show that Look, can we just look at non vaccination 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:52.799 and we make a really conservative estimate. You know, it's 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:57.519 just fivet of non vaccination is attributable to misinformation, the 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:01.200 cut between fifty and million dollars of harm every day, 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.360 which is just an incredible amount of harm and it's 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:06.840 hard to sort of imagine, oh, these words are really 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:10.680 actually translating into you know, these problems in real life. 0:03:11.080 --> 0:03:12.840 So what is the best way to combat this? Because 0:03:13.400 --> 0:03:14.680 you know, I hear you talking about this, and this 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:16.120 is something we've been talking about for more than a 0:03:16.160 --> 0:03:17.880 year at this point, and I think to myself, well, 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:21.320 you know what that ship is sailed? Yeah, well, you know, 0:03:21.440 --> 0:03:23.400 this is not an easy solution, and I think that 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:25.360 that's something that we're still trying to figure out the 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:27.960 best ways to go about solving this. I think, you know, 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:31.200 we can have these big, big communication campaigns, but that 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.160 doesn't really solve the problem. Right. The problem is is 0:03:34.280 --> 0:03:36.240 in um, you know, how we deal with each other 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:39.120 on an in a personal basis, how we use social 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:42.680 media UM, and how we you know, value what's true 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:44.920 and what's not true UM. And so I think it's 0:03:44.920 --> 0:03:46.840 going to come down to when we're talking about, you know, 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:49.560 dealing with misinformation about the vaccine, that's coming down to 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:52.560 trusted sources. We can't you know, depend on PDC to 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:55.440 blast out any more information because those people aren't listening anymore. 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:57.920 So it needs to be more on these community level 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.720 interventions that are that need to go on, um Tara, 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:03.840 we have so many conversations about the inequities that are 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:07.480 out there when it comes to healthcare, how it's affected 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:11.480 different people during the pandemic, What signs, what hope do 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:13.600 you have that as we get on the other side 0:04:13.600 --> 0:04:17.360 of this that some of those inequities are truly dealt with, 0:04:17.400 --> 0:04:19.400 that we stopped talking about it and actually do something 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:21.599 and fix it and make it better for more, uh, 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:25.080 not only Americans, but global citizens. Well, I think the 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.559 pandemic has really highlighted that this is you know, these 0:04:28.560 --> 0:04:31.919 global inequities of affect everyone UM, and that you know, 0:04:31.960 --> 0:04:34.120 when we are dealing with big problems like the pandemic 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:36.839 or other health issues that sort of you know, continue 0:04:36.880 --> 0:04:40.520 continue every day that you know, these these equities, UM, 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.240 you know are really really part of the biggest part 0:04:43.240 --> 0:04:46.960 of the problem. UM. Now, are they solved? Definitely not. 0:04:47.080 --> 0:04:48.640 You know, weason to come out of the pandemic and 0:04:48.680 --> 0:04:51.479 say we've solved, you know, the problem with health and equities. Know, 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:53.640 but I think that you know, we have shined a 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:55.440 light on it, and I think that this is something 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:57.840 that is gaining more and more attention UM as something 0:04:57.880 --> 0:05:00.360 that needs to be addressed when we deal with for parents, 0:05:00.440 --> 0:05:02.960 for pandemics. You know, you can't just just think about 0:05:02.960 --> 0:05:05.840 how well just one broad solution. You need to think 0:05:05.880 --> 0:05:08.440 about all these subpopulations that really do need this attention. 0:05:08.520 --> 0:05:11.240 What holds it up from us making more significant progress? 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:13.120 I mean, we think about some of those big global issues, 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:17.840 whether it's climate change, inequities, certainly healthcare. I know it's 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:20.039 a big nut to fix. But what is it that 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:21.920 holds us up the most? Is it policy? Is it 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:24.520 politicians caring? Is it that the people that are affected 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:27.400 that most don't have much say in government? What is it? 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:30.520 I mean, I think it's all of those things. Um, 0:05:30.600 --> 0:05:32.320 But you know, at the end of the day, I 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:34.840 think you know, I study misinformation play. Do you think 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:37.440 a lot of stuff which is related to misinformation? People don't. 0:05:37.640 --> 0:05:40.680 People don't see it as an important problem because you know, 0:05:40.760 --> 0:05:44.200 that's some other information they're seeing. It's just not a priority. 0:05:44.200 --> 0:05:45.960 It's not a priority for people that it's not a 0:05:45.960 --> 0:05:48.800 priority for politicians. But I do think, you know, when 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:51.560 we talk about misinformation, when we talk about these pandemics, 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:53.599 you know, this is something that needs like a whole 0:05:53.640 --> 0:05:56.599 of society approach. We need to have, you know, a 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:00.120 national strategy to deal with health related misinformation in and 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:01.960 for that matter, you know, we do have these strategies 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:05.200 for pandemics. We need to sort of understand that we 0:06:05.279 --> 0:06:06.839 just can't make a plan that we actually have to 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:09.800 invest it. All right, we gotta run. Hey, thank you 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:12.120 so much. I know it's Thursday, but still have a 0:06:12.160 --> 0:06:15.120 good weekend. We call it Friday's Eve here, so uh, Tara, 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:18.240 take care. Tara Kirksl she's senior scholar for the Center 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:21.800 are at the Center for Health Security. She's an assistant 0:06:21.800 --> 0:06:24.360 professor in the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering overt 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:27.680 Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health. Of course, 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:30.680 as we say, because it's true, it's a part of 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:33.920 by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder, Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. 0:06:34.080 --> 0:06:37.080 We didn't talk about her Olympic silver medal, No we didn't. 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:40.000 It isn't that cool, Very just in awe of anyone 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:44.839 who's achieved that. Also just career switch such as this, Yeah, incredible, 0:06:44.880 --> 0:06:48.080 doing some incredible work as well. This is Bloomberg Business 0:06:48.120 --> 0:06:51.919 Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick takes Tim Stinovic 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:55.560 on Bloomberg Radio. Well, we talk about this a lot 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.320 when it comes to trying to understand today's labor market. Really, 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:01.280 the impact of the COVID pan make writing about it 0:07:01.279 --> 0:07:04.440 in a Bloomberg opinion column about how the Great Resignation 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:06.760 is great for low paid workers is known other than 0:07:06.800 --> 0:07:09.680 justin Fox. He's calmnest to Bloomberg Opinion. He joins us 0:07:10.000 --> 0:07:13.040 here in our interactive brokers studio, nice to have you here. 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:14.800 We're chatting a little bit before we got going. We 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.280 talked about this a lot. Tell us what your intel 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:20.640 has said are shown about what really is going on 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:22.680 when it comes to the Great Resignation. Well, I mean, 0:07:22.720 --> 0:07:25.040 everybody's been talking about it for months, and at least 0:07:25.080 --> 0:07:29.200 in my inbox, it's mostly all these consulting firms and 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:33.239 pr people wanting to talk about white collar workers being 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:37.280 dissatisfied with their jobs or otherwise wanting to reboot their 0:07:37.320 --> 0:07:40.360 lives and work life traitors on while studio can't date 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.840 and they switch for another job exactly, And a lot 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:46.880 of that's totally real and for love Carol, exactly. But 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:51.000 there's this monthly report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics 0:07:51.000 --> 0:07:53.720 put out and the one for September came out um 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.920 last week and where and where they measure the quits rate, 0:07:56.960 --> 0:08:01.520 which is just the percentage of jobs that people left 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:04.720 voluntarily in that month, and it was the quits rate 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:08.000 was three September. That's the highest it's ever been since 0:08:08.040 --> 0:08:11.600 they started measuring it in two thousands, and it's jumped 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:14.400 a ton over the past um six months or so. 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:18.320 And if you look at it by industry, it turns 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:22.800 out it's not the financial industry. It's not information, which 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:24.520 is where a lot of the tech companies are and 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:29.800 where Bloomberg is too. It's leisure and hospitality. It's um 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:33.040 non durable goods manufacturing, which doesn't pay as well as 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:37.920 durable goods. It's um healthcare, but you know you've got 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:42.520 most healthcare jobs are not highly paid doctors or nurses. Uh. 0:08:42.600 --> 0:08:45.800 And so what it seems to be, at least lately 0:08:45.840 --> 0:08:48.680 and again over the course of the pandemic, different things 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:52.000 have been happening. But the phenomenon of right now is 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.800 low paid people are quitting to take slightly higher paying jobs. 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:59.040 And that's how because hires are up even more highers 0:08:59.040 --> 0:09:02.560 are higher than quits. Are, and that's just happening all 0:09:02.600 --> 0:09:05.480 across the board, and it's kind of I mean, I'm 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:08.319 sure it's very frustrating for the employers who are losing 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:10.200 some of those people, but it's kind of a very 0:09:10.240 --> 0:09:13.800 healthy phenomenon that was not happening for most of the 0:09:13.840 --> 0:09:15.880 two thousand tents. It was starting to happen a bit 0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.280 in two thousand and seventeen. Age I'm glad you say 0:09:18.320 --> 0:09:20.040 it was kind of a healthy phenomenon because I think 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:23.280 about the way that prices have not been raised in 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:26.000 many parts of our lives over the last decade, and 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:28.480 I wonder to what extent this type of pattern is 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:31.120 supposed to happen, where workers are supposed to have this 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:35.439 type of choice that if they do actually find a 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.800 job that pays more, they can go to that and 0:09:37.800 --> 0:09:40.240 those jobs are available when they haven't been in the past. 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:43.559 I mean, one the the Atlanta fed um breaks down 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:49.560 wage gains by income quartile, and basically the bottom quartile 0:09:49.679 --> 0:09:52.520 people who make the least money are seeing the biggest 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.160 gains right now, and the last time that happened in 0:09:55.200 --> 0:09:57.040 an extended and then and they've been seeing the biggest 0:09:57.080 --> 0:10:00.440 gains since about two thousand, fifteen, but they keep going higher. 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:02.559 And the last time that happened in a significant way 0:10:02.559 --> 0:10:04.559 it was the late nineties, which was a pretty great 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:09.120 time economically speaking. And so that's a good thing. That's like, 0:10:09.280 --> 0:10:13.120 that's decreasing. Wage inequality has totally been decreasing over the 0:10:13.120 --> 0:10:16.240 past few years. I don't know if overall economic inequality 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:18.640 has because obviously a lot of people are getting rich 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:22.280 off things other than wages, but wage inequality has been decreasing. 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:25.920 Opportunities for people who don't have college educations have been 0:10:25.960 --> 0:10:29.040 improving for the last few years. It's good stuff in 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:31.360 a lot of ways. So net net to take away 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:33.640 do be does this work towards reducing the gap that 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:36.360 we're seeing between the halves and have nots essentially? Um 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:39.160 and longer term, does it mean wage inflation? Maybe it 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:41.120 isn't sticky because sometimes those jobs have a lot of 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:43.760 turnover and just kind about thirty five seconds, I mean, 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:47.200 who Yeah, it seems like wage wage inflation might be 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:50.679 a little stickier, though I would imagine COVID is still 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:54.280 holding some people back from the labor market. Um. And yeah, 0:10:54.320 --> 0:10:56.560 this closes the gap, it doesn't close at all, And 0:10:56.600 --> 0:10:58.640 it's not the only thing that needs to be done, 0:10:58.679 --> 0:11:02.360 but yeah, it decreases inequality well, and it equips us 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.200 with a smart a smarter round of conversation because we 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.720 are talking about just people rethinking right, they're rolling in 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:11.040 the workforce. Also, after reading a column, makes me wonder 0:11:11.080 --> 0:11:12.880 too about price increases that we'll see at some of 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:15.080 these places that haven't been raising wages that realized they 0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:16.679 do because they're going to need more money to pay 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:18.480 their workers. All Right, we gotta run. Justin, thank you 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.240 so much. Justin Fox. He's calumnist of Bloomberg Opinion. Check 0:11:21.280 --> 0:11:24.040 him out at Twitter at Fox just and he's joining 0:11:24.080 --> 0:11:27.120 us in our Interactive Broker Studio. You're listening to Bloomberg 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.840 Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:34.600 Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, the news show, Bloomberg business 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.080 Week Magazine. It is out. It's on the Bloomberg at 0:11:38.080 --> 0:11:41.520 business Week dot com, also on newsstand and the cover 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:45.160 It's all about inflation. Yep, it's back. Several articles covering 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:47.120 what is one of the most talked about subjects this year, 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.880 including a story by Bloomberg News Cross Asset Reporter on 0:11:49.880 --> 0:11:53.079 Bloomberg Quick Take host Katie Greifeld, which is about getting 0:11:53.080 --> 0:11:55.680 inflation right. Is a make or break trade on Wall Street. 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:57.280 The folks on Wall Street have had a hard time 0:11:57.320 --> 0:11:59.280 figuring this one out. Joining us now is Joe Webber, 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:01.440 editor at bloom Burg Business Week. He joins us on 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:04.000 the access line from Brooklyn. Katie Graandfeld is in the 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:07.000 studio with us. She's Bloomberg News cross asset reporter. She's 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.800 also the co host of Bloomberg Quick Take stock at 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:12.960 as each and every day at noon Wall Street time. Joel, 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:14.719 I want to start with you and just talk a 0:12:14.760 --> 0:12:17.760 little bit about the entire package here because this is 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:22.080 this is a special issue of Bloomberg Business Week that 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.319 really focuses on inflation. And I think for a lot 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.959 of people, uh, they might think back to the question 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:29.840 of wait a second, wasn't inflation dead just a few 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:33.560 years ago? Were we out of the era? In fact, 0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:37.120 we even had a cover story that was is Inflation dead? 0:12:37.880 --> 0:12:40.960 Which was uh, you know, in the before times and 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:43.440 boys at not now. Um, but you know, this has 0:12:43.480 --> 0:12:46.640 been an obsession on in finance and on Wall Street 0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:50.240 for for years. You know, this idea that inflation which 0:12:50.240 --> 0:12:53.040 basically just disappeared, like what was going to bring it back? 0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:56.280 And then all of a sudden, Um, it's back and 0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:58.840 in back in a big way. UM. So we tried 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.120 to look at that um for as many different angles 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:05.199 as we could. There's historical elements, there's the political ramifications 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.040 and what it means for for President Biden who really 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.559 doesn't have that many options to even attempt to deal 0:13:10.640 --> 0:13:13.400 with it. Um. And then where where Katie fits in 0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:15.920 with technically the cover story, which is a joke between 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:18.920 her and me, uh is that careers are going to 0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:23.360 be made or or or or broken over this thing, um, 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.640 especially on Wall Street in terms of of who who 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.520 doing what, what their calls are, what their trades are. UM. 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.240 So Katie, what's that? What's that inkst feel like on 0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:35.840 the street? Well, Joel, technical cover story, I will take it. 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.120 I do remember the Inflation is Dead cover as well. 0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:40.760 I think there was a deflated dinosaur on it had 0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:42.520 an article in that one with a question mark to 0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:46.679 be it was a question mark, not a state. There 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:50.000 is a dinosaur that was out of inflatable dinosaur that 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:51.880 was out of air at the bottom of the question 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.440 there it is. I remember that we're showing it to 0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:58.160 everybody who's watching right now on YouTube. Great cover man, 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:03.680 What a time this article. I think, um, there's sort 0:14:03.679 --> 0:14:06.760 of an optimistic or silver lining here, because I mean, 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.400 we're looking at it from the psychology of money managers, 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:11.560 this inflation question. I feel like we come at it 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:13.920 from the economic angle a lot trying to answer the 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:16.720 question of whether inflation is transitory. But if you're a 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:20.120 money manager, this is the question you have to answer 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:23.680 in designing a portfolio. And if you're wrong, I mean, 0:14:23.840 --> 0:14:27.560 for sure that can destroy your returns. But if you're right, 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.040 I mean, you can really be a hero here, you 0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:32.080 can really make a name for yourself. So there there's 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.880 a little bit of an optimistic bent there, Katie. Though 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:39.120 here we are you and I anchor this show on 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.000 on quick Take that's geared towards retail traders. A lot 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.560 of our audience doesn't hasn't ever lived through an inflationary environment. 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:47.960 And I wonder what your sources told you about the 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:51.320 idea of us entering a time when you know, we 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:53.040 were I think in the words of Matt Miller, this 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:55.320 was like pre nirvana, is what he said earlier today. 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:00.480 I think that's what he said that that was a 0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.720 fun interview. But yeah, I mean we're talking about numbers 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:07.479 that we haven't seen since if you think about headline inflation, 0:15:07.520 --> 0:15:09.720 if you think about core PC, which is what the 0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:13.160 FED likes to look at. I mean a lot of 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:15.600 money managers that I talked to that, I mean, even 0:15:15.600 --> 0:15:18.800 if you've been money managing money for fifteen for twenty years, 0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:21.640 you haven't seen these numbers in a long time. And 0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.320 I mean myself, as a millennial, I know a lot 0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:27.680 of people who casually trade in the market. I mean 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.600 that when they came into being started, you know, paying 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:34.080 attention to trading stocks, all they've really known is super 0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:38.520 low interest rates, tech dominating everything. There's a potential for 0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:41.200 a real reshuffling of leadership here, which is a really 0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:46.600 interesting time to be alive. And so, Katie, when when 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:50.640 we're talking to people who are attempting to like navigate 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.840 how they construct portfolios around this and this feeling like, 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:55.480 as one guy said, it's like if I get this, 0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:58.280 if I get this wrong a year out, like I'm 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.080 kind of screwed. I have to get it right. Um, 0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.560 how how existential is this for people? Are they feeling like, 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:07.440 are they feeling it with every decision that they make 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:10.080 or and and how far out are they even attempting 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.560 to look? Well, if you're looking two to three years 0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.960 out and you know you think this is uh just 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:18.960 going to be an issue, maybe you know inflation will 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:22.200 peak in February two and start to cool off. If 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:24.680 you really in two to three out three years out, 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:28.160 you're probably not that stressed about it. You're still going 0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.760 to be, you know, looking for the best companies, etcetera. 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:34.120 But if you think that this really is we're going 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:37.080 to see a sustained spiral upward and inflation may be 0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:40.360 driven by wage pressures, you're probably nervous here. And I 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:43.120 spoke to Michael schul for this. Peach SE's the CEO 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.040 of market Field Asset Management, Super Smart. He said, the 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.640 real risk here is that basically bond investors reach a 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.800 psychological breaking point when it comes to real rates, because 0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:57.960 real rates at record lowse deeply negative. At a certain point, 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:01.440 you start to demand more, and you know this starts 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.120 and ends with the bond market. If that starts to happen, 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:07.119 you start to get cracks where the bond market isn't 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:09.680 necessarily taking its cues from what the FED is saying 0:17:10.160 --> 0:17:13.960 that reverberates across assets. That has you know, really wide ranging, 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:17.040 not very good implications for equities. I'd say, for sure, 0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:19.240 what about what the FED does and how that will 0:17:19.280 --> 0:17:22.760 impact this is That's the question. And this is something 0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:25.119 I was talking about with Matt Miller that you know, 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:29.360 you think back to Volker who what hyped rates to 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:31.639 which which kind of went against the thinking, right like 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.360 why would you do higher rates in a high rate environment? 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:37.080 But that's exactly what was needed absolutely. I mean I 0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:40.240 can't imagine a power FED doing that. I can't imagine 0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:43.520 a brainerd Fed doing that. I mean, this current regime 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:47.160 of FED policy, we know that they want to let 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:49.800 inflation run hot for a while. And I mean, even 0:17:49.840 --> 0:17:51.840 if you look at what's priced into markets right now, 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:54.800 the terminal rate is priced in at one point seven 0:17:54.920 --> 0:17:58.280 five per cent. That's a pretty shallow hiking cycle that's 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:03.440 priced in. It's far, far, far cry from So what's 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:05.520 at stake here for the folks you talked to on 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:07.280 Wall Street about the ones who are going to make 0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:09.680 or break their careers. Well, again, did bring it back 0:18:09.680 --> 0:18:12.400 to Michael Scholl. He said that you know, if the 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:16.639 worst case scenario is right, that absolute psychological breaking point. 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:19.159 This wouldn't be a five to send percent correction and 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.679 then we bounced back. This would be a sign a 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:26.239 market of significant losers. That wouldn't be winners and losers. Right, 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:27.959 there's the likes of somebody getting it right and for 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.159 us for like the next five years saying remember he 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:32.600 made or she made that great call. I mean, Michael 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:34.480 Burry is proof. We talked about him all the time, 0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:37.159 like big short fame came to prominence during you know, 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.640 the last financial crisis. How many years ago? Was that 0:18:39.840 --> 0:18:41.520 a long time? And he did just end his bet 0:18:41.720 --> 0:18:45.840 against Tesla, Yeah, he sure did. Anyways, great stuff and 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:50.480 the whole takeover that the section devoted to inflation in 0:18:50.480 --> 0:18:52.760 the magazine must read really looking at it from so 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:55.040 many different angles. Katy gray Pelt, thank you so much, 0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:57.200 Bloomberg News crocess at report of Bloomberg Quick Take co 0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.920 anchor here in our interactive broker studio, and of course 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:02.720 old Weber editor Bloomberg Business Week on the access line 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:05.600 from Brooklyn. Check out that new issue of Business Week 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:09.120 on newsstands, online and on the Bloomberg So much to come. 0:19:09.280 --> 0:19:14.320 You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:18.400 with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovich from 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:21.679 Bloomberg Radio. All right, so we love the ticker, we 0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:23.960 love the company. We're talking about Petco Health and Wellness, 0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:28.840 which reported earnings this morning. No, it was a third 0:19:28.920 --> 0:19:31.640 quarter beat for earnings, revenues and com sales outlook from 0:19:31.640 --> 0:19:34.160 the CEO, Ron Coglin, saying the third quarter comp sales 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:37.240 growth to giving them confidence to raise guidance for the 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:40.920 full year of one. Even so, investors not impressed. The 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:43.680 stockdown hovering near lows, down about twelve and a half percent. 0:19:44.040 --> 0:19:45.880 So great to have back with us in our interactive 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.400 broker studio. The chairman and CEO of Petco, Ron Coglin, 0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.240 joining us. Good to have you here, great to be here, 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:54.160 Thanks for having me. We'll talk to us about the quarter. 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:56.160 It seemed like a pretty good one. Yeah, I mean 0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:57.720 we had a great quarter. If you look on the 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:00.480