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Speaker 2: Roth walks in and it's really wicked cold in your folks,
Speaker 2: I like it that way.
Speaker 3: And the whole room heats up because she's working the
Speaker 3: terminal short like nothing. What do you see over there
Speaker 3: in the terminal, Stephanie Roth, Oh, this inflation report?
Speaker 2: This shock?
Speaker 4: I certainly, it certainly is a shock. I think the
Speaker 4: main thing that we have to remember is there is
Speaker 4: a lot of error in this report, so I would
Speaker 4: not take much away from this. A key thing that
Speaker 4: there's an issue with in the sense that when they're
Speaker 4: sampling the data specifically around November, that the survey period
Speaker 4: was condensed until later in the month when you typically
Speaker 4: have significant holiday discounting. And when we spoke with BLS,
Speaker 4: they said they're not doing anything to adjust those seasonals,
Speaker 4: so that automatically makes the data artificially weak and we're
Speaker 4: probably going to see a bounce back in December.
Speaker 5: Is there a trend we can take away from here that, boy,
Speaker 5: it's at least inflation is not going up from here.
Speaker 6: Is that a fair takeaway? Maybe it's not cooling as much.
Speaker 5: As these numbers might suggest, but it doesn't appear to
Speaker 5: be rising.
Speaker 6: I think that's entirely fair.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 4: There was this concern that around the holiday season companies
Speaker 4: wouldn't really do the typical discounting that they usually do
Speaker 4: because of the tariffs. That doesn't appear to be the case,
Speaker 4: and we knew this heading into the data print because
Speaker 4: if you looked at a number of different indicators that
Speaker 4: survey the company is ahead of the holiday season, it
Speaker 4: showed a normal holiday discounting year. So it doesn't appear
Speaker 4: like there was this lapse in discounting just because of tariffs.
Speaker 4: In fact, it was a typical year for discounting. And
Speaker 4: then on top of that, you have some of the
Speaker 4: issues within the data because of the government shutdown.
Speaker 3: So Myron's been out here, Governor Myron, We've got a
Speaker 3: lower rates, a whole bunch of other people. There's been
Speaker 3: a clear tendency within Bloomberg's surveillance of people looking at
Speaker 3: a disinflationary tendency. Is it a January tendency or is
Speaker 3: it a FED meeting waiting out mid summer.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean so I think I think what we'll
Speaker 4: see is inflation will bounce back in the next couple
Speaker 4: of prints, the economy will start to pick up again,
Speaker 4: in which case the Fed's probably going to be on
Speaker 4: hold for much of the beginning.
Speaker 6: Of next year.
Speaker 5: So again, so the Fed, I mean if you look
Speaker 5: at so you don't think the Fed's going to look
Speaker 5: at these numbers and say we've got inflation. I sure,
Speaker 5: hope not sure, because you think that data in the
Speaker 5: next couple of months could in fact show a little
Speaker 5: bit more inflation in the economy.
Speaker 6: Yeah, And we know that there was a there was
Speaker 6: an issue.
Speaker 4: I mean, it didn't even collect in the October CPI
Speaker 4: for the most part, we know that there are issues
Speaker 4: with the data. So to form a strong conclusion about
Speaker 4: this print up two as being some massive disinflationary period,
Speaker 4: I think is entirely inaccurate.
Speaker 2: Stephanie Roth through this.
Speaker 3: With a Wolf Research and we continue here Paul Sweeney
Speaker 3: and Tom Keane with Lisa Matteo and John Tuckler. Good
Speaker 3: Morning Across the Nation series XM Channel one twenty one,
Speaker 3: Good Morning Canada. I mentioned David Rosenberg up in Toronto
Speaker 3: with a disinflationary call.
Speaker 2: Nailed that into this report on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Subscribed to Bloomberg Podcasts, We're thrilled to finish twenty twenty
Speaker 3: five strong, humbled by the sign ups there each and
Speaker 3: every day at Bloomberg podcast Paul Sweeney was Stephanie rough.
Speaker 5: All right, so we've got an inflation environment that's at
Speaker 5: least okay at this point.
Speaker 7: How about the labor market.
Speaker 6: What did you take away.
Speaker 5: From some of the labor data earlier.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean so, I think what we're seeing is
Speaker 4: a live market that's holding up a lot better and
Speaker 4: in fact starting to inflect a bit higher from here.
Speaker 4: And I think that's the main conclusion that we should
Speaker 4: take away from the headline jobs numbers. Let me replace
Speaker 4: the private payrolls numbers. The headline jobs numbers are impacted
Speaker 4: again by not necessarily the government shut down in particular,
Speaker 4: but the the third resignation program which ended into at
Speaker 4: the end of September. These are people who took severance package.
Speaker 4: This is not people who lost their jobs. So if
Speaker 4: you look at the private payroll numbers, they were actually
Speaker 4: quite decent. Now we're looking at, you know, a trend
Speaker 4: that's close to in the seventy thousand range, which is
Speaker 4: really not bad so and the effect the unemployment rate
Speaker 4: rose is less of a less of a concern, I
Speaker 4: think partially because there was again some issues with the
Speaker 4: government shut down impacting the data, and then in today's
Speaker 4: inflation data, the airlines were a big driver of the
Speaker 4: weakness and that there was also canceled flights.
Speaker 6: There was just a lot going on in your first.
Speaker 2: Look at the noises the airlines.
Speaker 4: First look at the noises the airlines. They fell six
Speaker 4: point five percent over two months, so it comes out
Speaker 4: to about three percent each month. If you look at
Speaker 4: the you know, the core number was point one five
Speaker 4: nine across both months. That's you know, quite low. What
Speaker 4: peril was was pretty weak. That is probably tied to
Speaker 4: this whole holiday discounting issue. So there's a lot of
Speaker 4: sort of noise within within the report, and part tied
Speaker 4: to the government shut down in port tied to the
Speaker 4: fact that it's just a sort of less inflationary backdrop.
Speaker 3: North Fries of market higher features of forty now out
Speaker 3: of forty seven nansdeck up one point three half percent.
Speaker 3: The nansdack one hundred, I should say vict sixteen point
Speaker 3: eight three. You know, I look at this stuff, I
Speaker 3: look at the whole ballet of it all, and I
Speaker 3: am more than certain. I learned this from David Rosenberg
Speaker 3: at Merrill years ago, Merrill, Lynch, Pierce, Fenner, and Smith.
Speaker 2: I saw an article that is just Meryl. I said,
Speaker 2: it will never just be maryl.
Speaker 3: You just mentioned that the pros like you look at
Speaker 3: each line item. What did the service sector line items say?
Speaker 3: And the angst of a four to be in purchasing.
Speaker 2: Power, utility bills, bills, the auto insurance. Can you see
Speaker 2: those in the report?
Speaker 4: Yeah, we can see that in the report. Motor vehicle
Speaker 4: insurance looks pretty flat. Transportation services, lodging, all that stuff
Speaker 4: was pretty soft. It's hard to know to what extent
Speaker 4: this is government shutdown related. My senses it probably is,
Speaker 4: and we'll see a bit of a bounce back. And
Speaker 4: then on the good side, that was all pretty soft,
Speaker 4: outside of maybe some used.
Speaker 2: Vehicles fed pick.
Speaker 6: What do you think who should it be or who
Speaker 6: do I think it will be?
Speaker 2: Book? We have time for both answers.
Speaker 6: I would love to see Waller.
Speaker 4: I think he'd be a great pick, and I think
Speaker 4: markets would really prefer to see Waller, who I.
Speaker 7: Think is more likely.
Speaker 4: It's probably more likely to be Hassett, although it does
Speaker 4: seem like incrementally over the past couple of weeks there
Speaker 4: seems to be some more concerns about Hasset, or at
Speaker 4: least more hesitation out of the White House for picking him.
Speaker 2: Stephanie Roth, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 3: Your commitment to surveillances appreciated of course, with the FED
Speaker 3: sides and other great moments.
Speaker 2: Stay with us.
Speaker 8: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
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Speaker 2: We're gonna go to Emily Rowland right now.
Speaker 3: She is a Johnny anecock and I just can't say
Speaker 3: enough Howard manual life. She has just said you have
Speaker 3: to participate. First of all, congratulations.
Speaker 2: On the last three, four, five years. You've just absolutely
Speaker 2: killed the common sense nature of just own quality stocks.
Speaker 2: Any variants for next.
Speaker 9: Year, No, Tom, I mean we have long recognized the
Speaker 9: fact that over time, stock prices follow profits.
Speaker 7: It's pretty simple.
Speaker 9: The challenge, of course this year is quality has honestly
Speaker 9: been left in the dust.
Speaker 7: This year has been all about momentum.
Speaker 9: It's been about technicals, it's been about finding a chart
Speaker 9: that's going on, checking out.
Speaker 2: What does it signal to you that they've been left behind.
Speaker 9: Well, it just signals that there just has been a
Speaker 9: sentiment driven market, whether it's political sentiment, whether it's sell
Speaker 9: US dollars and buy everything else, whether it's embrace Europe.
Speaker 9: I mean, look at things like Spain and the cosby
Speaker 9: this year. They're both up eighty percent. They are trading
Speaker 9: not like companies but almost like ticker symbols. So we've
Speaker 9: seen investors really be driven by sentiment. We've been getting
Speaker 9: out our old technical investing textbooks from years ago to
Speaker 9: try to figure out what's going on. But I think
Speaker 9: there could be a bid for quality as we head
Speaker 9: into a trickier year in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 5: Some concerns out there about a bubble around this whole
Speaker 5: AI story broadly defined and maybe just not in those
Speaker 5: seven names, but maybe more broadly in the market.
Speaker 6: How do you think about that?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, there's no doubt about it.
Speaker 9: The valuations are elevated around twenty two and a half
Speaker 9: times forward earnings.
Speaker 7: Of course, the peak.
Speaker 9: Historically was twenty five or But what we're really focused
Speaker 9: on is the denominator of the pe ratio, it's earnings.
Speaker 9: And the earnings engine in the United States is on.
Speaker 9: We have a lot of tailwinds in the next year.
Speaker 9: We've got the provisions from the one big beautiful Bill.
Speaker 9: We've got energy prices close to support here that helps consumers.
Speaker 9: So there's a lot going right for corporate America.
Speaker 2: Okay, inflation comes at lower Yeah, and you're on Trush
Speaker 2: came in.
Speaker 3: I don't know if you saw the report, but you know,
Speaker 3: way under three percent. Yeah, let's say we get a
Speaker 3: FED cut this time whenever, maybe when the red sox
Speaker 3: finally enter the free agent market whatever, I'm sorry. Money
Speaker 3: market funds, Paul, at what three point six percent? Yeah,
Speaker 3: they're going to be three point five percent? What does
Speaker 3: the John Hancock Manual Life Research of the emotion of
Speaker 3: money market funds coming down?
Speaker 7: There is a love affair with money markets.
Speaker 9: There are seven plus trillion dollars sitting in cash right now,
Speaker 9: and we think that those yields could disappear before your
Speaker 9: eyes into next year. The bond mark mart is just
Speaker 9: not sniffing out the disinflation that we see coming from
Speaker 9: the housing market. Just this morning, looking at the CPI report,
Speaker 9: it was still like groundhog Day. It was like the
Speaker 9: shelter component was still driving the bulk of the gains
Speaker 9: in CPI, even though we're at the lowest level since
Speaker 9: twenty twenty one. The labor market's gotten more cracks in
Speaker 9: it than I would suggest. The official data is telling
Speaker 9: us that means bond yields lower. There's an opportunity right
Speaker 9: now to lean into the income that's available in high
Speaker 9: quality bonds. Investors won't do it. Our work suggests that
Speaker 9: people buy money market funds on mass until rates are zero.
Speaker 7: We don't want that to happen.
Speaker 3: Well A Sure, Paul Capital Economics publishes I love the
Speaker 3: PA I've never seen this, folks in humpteen years.
Speaker 2: BLS reports hard to believe slum in delation exactly A
Speaker 2: sure needs more data exactly right.
Speaker 5: Earnings earnings have been really solid in the last several quarters.
Speaker 5: Here are they strong.
Speaker 2: Enough to support this marketing going forward, I.
Speaker 9: Think, yeah, you know, analysts are penciling in fourteen percent
Speaker 9: earnings growth for the US next year. That is pretty lofty,
Speaker 9: but as I mentioned before, there are a number of
Speaker 9: tailwinds in place for corporate America. I would say, just
Speaker 9: building on the America theme, we have the best earnings
Speaker 9: growth of any companies globally in the United States.
Speaker 7: You've seen that not be rewarded. This year.
Speaker 9: The S and P five hundred up around fifteen percent.
Speaker 9: European equities are up twice that amount. Guess what their
Speaker 9: earnings growth is. It's low single digits. So what we've
Speaker 9: seen again is this sentiment driven trade.
Speaker 7: Bringing it over.
Speaker 9: European financial stocks are up almost sixty percent this year.
Speaker 7: Their earnings growth is.
Speaker 2: Left for a decade.
Speaker 3: I mean, in your shot, sure, with your track record,
Speaker 3: what's the minimum timeline.
Speaker 2: Our listeners and viewers should use. To me, it's three years.
Speaker 2: The media doesn't do that right, and Sweeney's out at
Speaker 2: seven years. But the answer is we're so the short
Speaker 2: termism is unreal.
Speaker 9: Well, that's fair, but if you look at the economic
Speaker 9: growth picture, the macro is like on a different planet
Speaker 9: from what's going on in these markets. The US from
Speaker 9: an economic perspective is kind of like the clean of
Speaker 9: shirt and the dirty laundry. Right now, if you look
Speaker 9: at Europe, the data are coming in. I mean pmis,
Speaker 9: for example for the Eurozone at forty nine point two.
Speaker 7: It's okay, but it's not.
Speaker 9: I don't think it justifies a thirty plus percent return
Speaker 9: in Europe and eighty percent return in Spain. I think
Speaker 9: these markets have run a lot and need trim into
Speaker 9: strengthen too.
Speaker 6: Next year.
Speaker 2: Well, good one, Martin.
Speaker 5: What do you do with dividends? Does that you play
Speaker 5: with you guys at all?
Speaker 9: Or I like anything that has like the word income
Speaker 9: in it for next year? I think income over capital appreciation.
Speaker 9: The problem is that the dividend yield on the S
Speaker 9: and P five hundreds one point two percent right now,
Speaker 9: and the fact that you can get four to five
Speaker 9: percent in high quality bonds, I like that a bit better.
Speaker 3: Okay, but you know, with a view of Trinity chops
Speaker 3: from old and new, John Hancock, Emily Rowland and Tom
Speaker 3: Keane worshiped at the altar of Margie Patel to Paul's
Speaker 3: great question is dividend growth and alternative to yield?
Speaker 7: I think so.
Speaker 9: I mean again, we like this kind of relative value play,
Speaker 9: and I think you're going to find those dividend growers
Speaker 9: in that bucket. It's value and quality at a reasonable price.
Speaker 2: What a God's name of the Red Sox do? When
Speaker 2: I saw Bredman, we're the Patriots.
Speaker 7: We're eleven and two, like unbelievable?
Speaker 2: Are you in the Manual Life? Johnny Hancock's seats are
Speaker 2: fifty yard line?
Speaker 7: Yeah right, those are for the clients. I wish, I wish.
Speaker 2: Emily Roland, thank you so much. You should see the
Speaker 2: Red Sox tickets. It's just sick. She's with the Johnny
Speaker 2: Hancock company.
Speaker 3: I should say Manual Life John Hancock to do it correctly,
Speaker 3: Emily Rowland, and she has been dead on about participating
Speaker 3: in the markets.
Speaker 8: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekdays
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: We have a special tree for your folks. I want
Speaker 3: to frame this out as well as I can. You've
Speaker 3: got a really odd headline this morning of breaking news.
Speaker 3: I'm going to go right to the Bloomberg where we've
Speaker 3: got Trump Media to combine with a company you don't know.
Speaker 2: Tae to build nuclear fusion business.
Speaker 3: My family goes back in this derby over forty years
Speaker 3: to the Lawrence Livermore Lab and Paul the Endless Quest
Speaker 3: to squeeze two atoms and two nucleus together.
Speaker 2: Dan Ives is quite good on this.
Speaker 3: We're going to talk to him with web Bush about
Speaker 3: this combination before we talk to him about the state
Speaker 3: of mag seven and technology. Well, Dan, thank you so
Speaker 3: much for joining us on short notice. I go back
Speaker 3: decades on this. Fusion has been a hope and a
Speaker 3: dream forever. How is Donald Trump gonna finally get us
Speaker 3: over this fragile line of successful physics.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I focus more like with THAE.
Speaker 10: I remember they're backers because I know them from a
Speaker 10: fusion perspective.
Speaker 2: Google, Chevron. Google and Chevron have been there, two major
Speaker 2: recent players.
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, you know Goldman some others. Look, I
Speaker 10: think when it comes to nuclear fusion, what that's twenty
Speaker 10: five plus years of the Maxwell winners, the Nobel winners
Speaker 10: that they've had here.
Speaker 2: So I've always viewed this is gonna be.
Speaker 10: If there's a winner in the US and global nuclear fusion,
Speaker 10: it's Tha.
Speaker 2: So I think that's at the centerpiece of this whole deal.
Speaker 10: It's much more about Thae and my view than in
Speaker 10: terms on the Trump angle that's always the political backing.
Speaker 3: Is this an arms race, if you will, a fusion
Speaker 3: race with China. We saw what they did with electric vehicles,
Speaker 3: your conversant in China and AI, the Nvidia chip debate
Speaker 3: in that Is this like getting out in front of
Speaker 3: China catching up a nuclear fusion.
Speaker 2: That's what it's all about.
Speaker 10: I mean, I think you know me and you've talked
Speaker 10: about this and you know on the show this is
Speaker 10: an arms race first China. I mean, everything they're focused
Speaker 10: on is going in two thoy thirty, how they fuel AI,
Speaker 10: arms ors technology. US is way ahead of China because
Speaker 10: of the Vidio, because of Microsoft, because of Palentinger and others.
Speaker 2: Energies are scarce.
Speaker 10: The guy I've always said, like energy is going to
Speaker 10: be the big scarcy in nuclear has to be the play.
Speaker 10: You know, obviously there's AKA and others, but this will
Speaker 10: clearly be the first fusion public play.
Speaker 5: So Dan, I think most people understand the Trump Media
Speaker 5: Company as a media play, a digital media play, if
Speaker 5: you will, Can you tell us about TA because most
Speaker 5: of us don't know a whole lot about Tha.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, Thae I think is the centerpiece of
Speaker 2: the whole deal.
Speaker 10: I mean, even though it's a merger, it's it's really
Speaker 10: about TAM I view. I think, look, when you look,
Speaker 10: this is what twenty five, twenty eight years, you know,
Speaker 10: most of out of California they've built I think it's
Speaker 10: about five you know, sort of you know, but I'll
Speaker 10: say few successful fusion buildouts this is one.
Speaker 2: I think it's five Nobels, so many.
Speaker 10: Maxwell's, you know, in terms of from scientists that have
Speaker 10: been through their schwab backing, you know, it's kind of
Speaker 10: who's who in terms of what they've had back. But
Speaker 10: this has really been one coming out of the cow
Speaker 10: system science community, and that's always what it was known as.
Speaker 2: It was always sort of a gem in the science community. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I noticed Jeff Immil was a former board member.
Speaker 3: But with TAE, folks to see Eugene mondays there it
Speaker 3: was just absolutely definitive across all political lines of America.
Speaker 3: Doctor Moneys, of course associated with MIT they let's say
Speaker 3: Dan as a statement, Tae has a heavyweight board, but
Speaker 3: you got to get something done. Going back to Lawrence
Speaker 3: Livermore lab ages ago, it's a lot of theory, it's
Speaker 3: a lot of politics, including the Advance Act accelerating deployment
Speaker 3: of versatile advanced nuclear for clean energy. It sounds like
Speaker 3: an episode Dan Iisa gets Smart, except you're too young
Speaker 3: to remember Get Smart.
Speaker 2: But the answer is, is there any indication fusion will work? Oh?
Speaker 2: I think that's that's you don't do this deal. But
Speaker 2: you don't think this is going to work.
Speaker 10: I mean, if you look with Tae is done, it's
Speaker 10: not just I think like the best bet from a
Speaker 10: US perspective and even global relative to energy. And clearly
Speaker 10: there have been obviously so many starts and stops when
Speaker 10: it comes to fusion. But I do believe this is
Speaker 10: one where when you look at breakthroughs combined with what
Speaker 10: you'd get from a capital perspective.
Speaker 2: Because we've alreays said like that's part arms raised. That's
Speaker 2: why this would be such unique combo. You know, Paul
Speaker 2: this is great.
Speaker 3: I want to thank the Kliman Center for Energy Policy
Speaker 3: at the University Pennsylvania for getting me up to speed
Speaker 3: on this. They got a chart in here from Sorbone
Speaker 3: nineteen fifteen, a proposed power plant.
Speaker 11: It looks like the set of Silo, right, I mean
Speaker 11: that's what yeah, I did, Lanman in hydrocarbons. The fusion
Speaker 11: thing looks like the set of Silo's.
Speaker 5: Exactly what Dan from Ta East perspective. Why are they
Speaker 5: merging with Trump's media president Trump's media company?
Speaker 10: I think probably two reasons, right, I mean one capital,
Speaker 10: I'm I think Trump you will get what two two
Speaker 10: and a half billion cash and you know, bigcoins your
Speaker 10: capital you get right away if you did this right
Speaker 10: as I suppose, if it just merged into just a.
Speaker 2: Regular spot, they'd have no capital. So that's one.
Speaker 10: And obviously it's political backing, right, I mean implied relative
Speaker 10: Trump administration.
Speaker 2: It's a essentially kind of them picking the winner more
Speaker 2: or less. I think that's how it be viewed.
Speaker 10: Dan.
Speaker 3: Let us migrate over to technology right now. Of course,
Speaker 3: it's a day to day thing. My book of the Summer,
Speaker 3: I think a year ago, two years ago is chip War.
Speaker 3: It was just a fabulous book and Shipwoark showed how
Speaker 3: discrete and apart Micron of Idaho is. They're really really
Speaker 3: good at making simple technology simple semiconductors and such. Dan, iives,
Speaker 3: what did you glean from the Micron optimism we saw yesterday?
Speaker 10: Look, I mean you talk about like the right news
Speaker 10: at the right time relative to nervousness Oracle data center,
Speaker 10: you know, and obviously a lot of the war is
Speaker 10: about the build out. Look that is just for the
Speaker 10: validation demand, the supply ten to one, right, twelve to one.
Speaker 10: It just shows what's happening in terms of these AI buildouts,
Speaker 10: and of course Nvidia and aim the another Micron is
Speaker 10: obviously front and center relative to you know what I
Speaker 10: kind of view as the core sort of you know,
Speaker 10: barometer relative to these AI buildouts. And I think that's
Speaker 10: investors are going to view this. I think it's come
Speaker 10: some nerves.
Speaker 2: Especially given where we are with the lack of news
Speaker 2: relative to companies coming to pulse. That's the huge thing here.
Speaker 3: You've experienced this too, the lack news pop Microme in
Speaker 3: the last ten years. Yeah, it's just appalling thirty three
Speaker 3: point two percent per year.
Speaker 2: Yep, that's what the recent moonshot.
Speaker 5: Hey, Dan, just with this deal with TAE today just
Speaker 5: highlight for us again kind of what to what extent
Speaker 5: will power and access to power and the grid be
Speaker 5: maybe a headwind for this AI rollout in development.
Speaker 2: Look, I mean.
Speaker 10: Today three percent of companies have gone down the AI path.
Speaker 10: I mean you get the twenty percent you don't essentially
Speaker 10: have enough power. So obviously right now in terms of
Speaker 10: a grid solar that's going to be sort of important
Speaker 10: in terms of stop gaps.
Speaker 2: But but to me, the only way you get there
Speaker 2: is nuclear.
Speaker 10: And like I've said, like nuclear has to be the answer,
Speaker 10: and you have a clean energy right when it comes
Speaker 10: to fusion, like this is gonna be the bet you
Speaker 10: got to make big bets quick and obviously ta in
Speaker 10: my own view in the US that that continues to
Speaker 10: be probably the best bet we have.
Speaker 3: I have real trouble with this, Dan, because I've seen
Speaker 3: decades and decades and decades of Yeah, we're gonna do it,
Speaker 3: We're gonna do it, cross our.
Speaker 2: Fingers, hope to die, We're gonna do nuclear fusion.
Speaker 3: In your research, I mean, people don't realize this, but
Speaker 3: away from the camera, lives actually works short. Yeah, do
Speaker 3: you see imminent research where someone at Google and Physics
Speaker 3: can say this stuff is gonna work.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 10: I mean, look, I don't think Google, Chevron, you know, Gold,
Speaker 10: and I think many other tech players that you know
Speaker 10: that have looked at this company, they're not doing it
Speaker 10: if nothing's happened.
Speaker 2: I mean, I truly.
Speaker 12: Believe like they've had breakthroughs, which is what's unique after
Speaker 12: obviously decades and decades, like you've said, coming out of
Speaker 12: labs of the theory, but not actually being able to scale.
Speaker 2: Dan.
Speaker 3: I so this is what Bush. We continue this morning.
Speaker 3: We welcome all of you across at the nation, around
Speaker 3: the world. Good evening on the Pacific rim a place
Speaker 3: for mister Ives visits often. Good evening over to India
Speaker 3: as well, Tom Kane and Paul Sweeting.
Speaker 5: Dan, what's the as you think about twenty twenty six
Speaker 5: and you travel a lot, meeting with institutional investors, meeting
Speaker 5: with companies within the tech space, what's kind of the
Speaker 5: number one talking point for twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: I think it's ultimate.
Speaker 10: It's modernization of AI, right, In other words, it's to
Speaker 10: build out what the use cases look like, not just
Speaker 10: on the enterprise and on the consumer side, and it
Speaker 10: will get to race right like from Meta to Microsoft
Speaker 10: to you know whoever.
Speaker 2: From a cap backs perspective, that continues to be.
Speaker 10: The focus demondization, and I think that's really going to
Speaker 10: define the winners.
Speaker 3: Qicklear, Dan, I've I got January twenty ninth of next
Speaker 3: year twenty six, twenty twenty six Microsoft earnings.
Speaker 2: I agree with you, Dan. Part of the angst here
Speaker 2: is an information vacuum.
Speaker 3: What's the information you're going to see it four fifteen
Speaker 3: in the afternoon, January twenty ninth from MSFT.
Speaker 10: I think it's the monization from Azure and what you
Speaker 10: see from AI. I think the reality is is that
Speaker 10: thirty percent of the Microsoft deals are track and have
Speaker 10: been accelerated when it comes to AI over the last
Speaker 10: few months. So as that plays out and the forecast
Speaker 10: plays out and they reiterate their cap backs, I think
Speaker 10: it's further validation that when it comes to the enterprise,
Speaker 10: Microsoft is going to be the core winner.
Speaker 2: When it comes to AI.
Speaker 3: I think that to get the nuclear fusion thing over
Speaker 3: the line, they got to merge dan ives Bright Pink
Speaker 3: and bright Green jackets together.
Speaker 2: That'll get you there. The entropy to get us to
Speaker 2: a successful fusion Dan ives stay with us.
Speaker 8: More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty digitally.
Speaker 2: She's here today with the newspapers.
Speaker 13: Now, I want to start with this because we have
Speaker 13: a few headlines about the Warner Brothers deal. First, you
Speaker 13: have the Wall Street Journal right there talking about how
Speaker 13: Warner Brothers wants more info about the use of an
Speaker 13: Ellison family trust to backstop that deal because a big
Speaker 13: part of that trust is Oracle shares, and Warner wants
Speaker 13: Larry Ellison to give this stronger personal guarantee that he
Speaker 13: and not the trust, is committed to the bid. And
Speaker 13: then you have the Financial Times reporting that a Warner
Speaker 13: Brothers shareholder is reaching out to an investor to acquire
Speaker 13: all our part of it's cable TV ascids, CNN, CNN,
Speaker 13: tn T Discover like all those all those it's said
Speaker 13: it's Sue Kim, founder of New York hedge funds Standard General.
Speaker 13: He's been in talks apparently for buying investing in the
Speaker 13: television networks and he's done.
Speaker 6: TV deals before.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Well, Bloomberg's Matt Levine's his Money Stuff column yesterday goes
Speaker 5: to this whole revocable trust from the Ellison really explains it.
Speaker 5: It's basically saying, hey, revocable trust has it's gota jillions
Speaker 5: of dollars of Oracle stock, but at any point in
Speaker 5: time that can be removed from the trust, and then
Speaker 5: the trust has got no value. And then you're like, Okay, well,
Speaker 5: where's my backstop, mister Ellison. And that's kind of where
Speaker 5: the Warner Brothers board is here. They're saying, we need
Speaker 5: the we need mister Ellison's personal guarantee in some form
Speaker 5: for this.
Speaker 2: We had to go. It's Lisa's newspaper segment.
Speaker 3: But Paul, are we surprised at the I'm going to
Speaker 3: say modest valuation of the traditional TV product?
Speaker 5: Yeah, the cable network businesses are being it's like teen
Speaker 5: sweets and it's almost who cares. It's just you know,
Speaker 5: I get Lisa, I mean Laura Martin from Yeah, she
Speaker 5: just said shut them down, just turn them off off
Speaker 5: the likes Lisa next.
Speaker 13: Please all right, this is an interesting look into the
Speaker 13: housing market. This was in the journal. How more wealthy
Speaker 13: renters are customizing their spaces and the landlords.
Speaker 2: Are okay with it.
Speaker 6: They even encourage it sometimes.
Speaker 13: I mean, we're talking about those who spend between twenty
Speaker 13: thousand and fifty thousand a month, you know, for a
Speaker 13: luxury single family home or apartment. So they spoke with
Speaker 13: realtors who say the landlords are okay if it increases
Speaker 13: the value. More and more people are doing it. They
Speaker 13: gave the example of a three bedroom condominium. These owners
Speaker 13: bought it in Lennox Hill and they paid about fourteen
Speaker 13: point eight million, but their renters paid fifty thousand dollars
Speaker 13: a month to rent it. They made two million dollar
Speaker 13: renovation when they moved into. The renters did so it's
Speaker 13: showing how much they're putting into it.
Speaker 2: I don't know, just that bizarre doesn't capture it. It's
Speaker 2: just strange they're renting it. What's the taxes on fourteen
Speaker 2: million dollars? Oh gosh, yeah, then there's that. So this
Speaker 2: is more than just throwing a coat of pain at it.
Speaker 13: No, it is it's getting new bathrooms, like redoing the kitchen,
Speaker 13: like getting and putting up wallpaper, which you know is
Speaker 13: tough to take down, so all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 13: They're just redoing the house to their likings, and the
Speaker 13: landlord's okay, if it increases.
Speaker 6: Their value, you go, okay, that was painful, and this
Speaker 6: one okay.
Speaker 13: So we talk about birth rates falling, but there's new
Speaker 13: research out there because a lot of people blame, oh, well,
Speaker 13: people want pets and they're doing that instead of having kids.
Speaker 13: You know, they're pushing the pets around in the carriages
Speaker 13: and dressing them up like kids.
Speaker 6: That's that's what we're dealing with.
Speaker 13: But now there's this new research that say, actually having
Speaker 13: a pet can make people want to become parents more.
Speaker 7: They did this study in tai w.
Speaker 13: With the birth rate is one of the lowest in
Speaker 13: the world, and that's what they're showing is that pets
Speaker 13: aren't replacing babies, are actually pre seating them. So really
Speaker 13: it's more like a trial run. I guess you could say,
Speaker 13: why why they have the dogs first and then they
Speaker 13: have the kids after, So it's not in replace of it's.
Speaker 2: Just like the kennel fee for kennel fee.
Speaker 6: Yes, it's like like a.
Speaker 2: Precursor for child.
Speaker 13: So you should have had the pets first before the kids,
Speaker 13: and then you realize how expensive they are.
Speaker 3: The latest battle was Paul, should the dogs have the
Speaker 3: little booties on as they walk around out right?
Speaker 2: Yeh, nothing. We don't have the booties. The boy, we don't.
Speaker 2: We don't do the booties.
Speaker 13: I've seen the booties.
Speaker 6: They're very cute, they're very social.
Speaker 2: I've got some of their sweaters out. You know that
Speaker 2: Bill is very festive. But we didn't go with the booties.
Speaker 3: The newspapers, Lisa Matteo, always interesting, always entertaining.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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