WEBVTT - Will The Epstein Files Sink Trump? 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:29.564 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business show about making better decisions. 0:00:29.684 --> 0:00:31.324 I'm Maria Kannakova. 0:00:31.364 --> 0:00:33.724 And I'm Nate Silver, So Nate. 0:00:33.764 --> 0:00:37.724 Today on the show, we're talking about some important things 0:00:38.804 --> 0:00:42.444 that are going on in UH in the government right now. 0:00:42.884 --> 0:00:45.404 The name Jeffrey Epstein probably rings a bell to some 0:00:45.484 --> 0:00:47.964 of our listeners. By the way, please. 0:00:47.724 --> 0:00:53.524 Experience I've never heard of the guy with Maria. I'll 0:00:54.044 --> 0:00:56.404 I think I think I changed emails with him once. 0:01:00.324 --> 0:01:03.444 Add on that note, yes, I am actually taping this 0:01:03.604 --> 0:01:08.964 from an office location, so you might hear some more 0:01:09.004 --> 0:01:13.844 background noise than usual. But yet you and I are 0:01:14.004 --> 0:01:15.764 both back from Vegas. 0:01:15.844 --> 0:01:19.404 Nate, well, First of Maria, I want to congratulate you 0:01:20.404 --> 0:01:26.444 for winning a poker championship trophy. You won the five 0:01:26.484 --> 0:01:30.164 thousand dollars no limit hold Them event at the North 0:01:30.244 --> 0:01:32.804 is it North American Poker Tour anyway, we were both 0:01:32.804 --> 0:01:37.444 out in Vegas. This is the last event of this 0:01:37.684 --> 0:01:41.964 NAPT series. But it's a tough event, five thousand dollars 0:01:41.964 --> 0:01:44.484 price point. I want to be super honest, I thought 0:01:44.524 --> 0:01:47.924 it was a fairly tough tournament. A lot of rags, 0:01:47.924 --> 0:01:51.564 a lot of Vegas local pros. There not the softest 0:01:51.564 --> 0:01:56.364 field I've ever played. I flew home scared. Maria played 0:01:56.724 --> 0:01:58.964 this five thousand dollars event, actually won the fucking event. 0:01:59.164 --> 0:02:05.484 Tell us a little bit about that, Maria. 0:02:03.004 --> 0:02:06.604 Thank you so much. Nate. Yeah, it was the fifty 0:02:06.604 --> 0:02:10.524 three hundred high roller, the final high roller of the series, 0:02:11.284 --> 0:02:15.084 and I had busted out of the ten k high roller, 0:02:15.724 --> 0:02:20.004 as had you. We were playing that together and then 0:02:20.804 --> 0:02:24.404 decided that, you know what, let's let's do one last hurrah. 0:02:24.484 --> 0:02:27.364 I tried to convince you to play, and you said. 0:02:27.204 --> 0:02:29.644 I would have had to. I would have had to 0:02:30.244 --> 0:02:35.764 downgrade from a business class seat on Delta to coach on. 0:02:35.884 --> 0:02:37.404 I would have had to take a red eye on 0:02:37.764 --> 0:02:40.924 Spirit Airlines. Maria, there are some things that are negative 0:02:40.924 --> 0:02:44.684 expected value. But if I had known I would win 0:02:44.724 --> 0:02:47.924 the tournament, then I would have Then I would have 0:02:48.084 --> 0:02:52.004 happily flown Spirit Airlines. But Maria, this is amazing. 0:02:52.324 --> 0:02:55.204 It's it's I was. I was just about to make 0:02:55.244 --> 0:02:57.244 the joke. Note that I'm glad that you decided not 0:02:57.324 --> 0:02:59.804 to downgrade because I would have had to come in second. 0:03:00.404 --> 0:03:03.724 So oh, I'm glad I got to win. So thank you. 0:03:03.844 --> 0:03:07.484 Thank you for flying home in business class it was. 0:03:08.124 --> 0:03:11.324 You know, it's always an amazing experience to win a tournament, 0:03:12.604 --> 0:03:16.364 but there's something extra special about winning a high roller 0:03:16.404 --> 0:03:19.404 where the fields are tough. You know, it feels really 0:03:19.444 --> 0:03:23.364 good when you are able to hold your own and 0:03:23.484 --> 0:03:27.284 kind of prevail against opponents who you know, most of 0:03:27.284 --> 0:03:30.364 them are a lot better players than I am. I'm 0:03:30.444 --> 0:03:34.604 not afraid to say that. And you know it feel 0:03:34.724 --> 0:03:37.044 it feels good when you can actually make it happen. 0:03:38.004 --> 0:03:41.244 I did you know I started It was a multi 0:03:41.324 --> 0:03:44.444 day event, and I started the final day, day day two, 0:03:44.644 --> 0:03:47.444 as the chip leader, which is always a great position 0:03:47.524 --> 0:03:50.324 to be in, but that usually does not translate right. 0:03:50.244 --> 0:03:53.484 Now, it's am, It's almost you have to like remind 0:03:53.484 --> 0:03:57.404 yourself that, like, oh, I'm chip leader at the end 0:03:57.444 --> 0:04:00.564 of day one, fifth and chips out of a thousand people. Yeah, 0:04:00.644 --> 0:04:03.924 your odds of winning are not that much higher than 0:04:03.924 --> 0:04:06.084 they were at the start. Your odds of cashing oftener 0:04:06.284 --> 0:04:09.324 even depends, right, even your adds of cashing can be 0:04:09.444 --> 0:04:11.164 love fifty fifty, right, So you have to you have 0:04:11.244 --> 0:04:12.924 to not rest on your laurels. 0:04:14.124 --> 0:04:20.084 Yeah, that's exactly right. Yeah, not resting on your laurels 0:04:20.124 --> 0:04:24.284 and like being able to get to keep everything going 0:04:25.484 --> 0:04:31.484 is a really, uh really tough thing to do. And I, 0:04:31.924 --> 0:04:35.164 you know, it was one of those days where everything 0:04:35.204 --> 0:04:37.404 went right. You know, all of my bluffs got through. 0:04:37.764 --> 0:04:39.884 You know, when I went all in with Jack High, 0:04:39.964 --> 0:04:43.244 I got the sold I didn't get the call, and 0:04:43.684 --> 0:04:46.044 I got the calls in the big spots where I 0:04:46.084 --> 0:04:49.604 actually had really good hands. That's what needs to happen, 0:04:49.684 --> 0:04:52.004 right Like, you need to make some hands and get calls, 0:04:52.084 --> 0:04:54.644 and you need to be able to you know, play 0:04:54.684 --> 0:04:56.684 when you don't have the best hands. And I also 0:04:56.724 --> 0:04:59.284 made some really good call downs. There were a few 0:04:59.324 --> 0:05:02.364 pots that gave me a lot of chips where really 0:05:02.364 --> 0:05:06.164 good players bluffed into me and I was able to 0:05:06.284 --> 0:05:11.404 call down with with with the hands that made me 0:05:11.444 --> 0:05:14.684 close my eyes and call instead of you know, slam 0:05:14.764 --> 0:05:17.644 dunk calling. I was based on Are there. 0:05:17.604 --> 0:05:19.964 Any particular players you want to mention? Is this based 0:05:20.004 --> 0:05:23.644 on gto? Is it based on live reads? Is it 0:05:23.644 --> 0:05:26.524 based on your expectation of how people play against you? 0:05:26.564 --> 0:05:28.484 Do they do you think they think you're overfolding? 0:05:29.004 --> 0:05:32.124 So I think that it's a combination of all of 0:05:32.164 --> 0:05:36.964 these things. There was a one player who I haven't 0:05:36.964 --> 0:05:41.444 played with before, and he'd been he'd been running well 0:05:41.484 --> 0:05:46.084 the whole series, he'd had some good results, and I 0:05:46.164 --> 0:05:48.844 felt like he was, you know, trying to take advantage 0:05:49.124 --> 0:05:51.964 of that a little bit. And so this was actually 0:05:51.964 --> 0:05:54.244 one of the hands that made me into the chip leader. 0:05:54.804 --> 0:06:01.844 On day two, he triple barrel bluffed into me where 0:06:02.364 --> 0:06:04.404 I ended up having a straight. But I had a 0:06:04.404 --> 0:06:07.444 straight on a double parrot board. So for people who 0:06:07.564 --> 0:06:11.004 don't play poker, not a very strong hand in that 0:06:11.044 --> 0:06:14.684 particular case, because if you, you know, if you're holding 0:06:14.724 --> 0:06:18.444 any one of the other cards, you have a full house. 0:06:18.604 --> 0:06:21.324 And he was the button and the two cards that 0:06:21.364 --> 0:06:23.844 were paired were a Queen and a ten, So those 0:06:23.884 --> 0:06:26.604 were both very likely cards for the button to have 0:06:26.684 --> 0:06:31.044 and for the button to represent, And in that particular case, 0:06:31.084 --> 0:06:33.964 there was just some spidey sense that just made me 0:06:34.084 --> 0:06:36.164 hit the call button. And I actually have no idea 0:06:36.164 --> 0:06:39.484 what he had because he mucked his hand, which is 0:06:39.524 --> 0:06:44.924 something that I actually never never advocate players do. So 0:06:45.044 --> 0:06:46.644 if you mock your hand, that means I don't have 0:06:46.684 --> 0:06:50.644 to show my hand, right, So that means that he 0:06:50.684 --> 0:06:54.564 doesn't get the information with what I was calling him with, 0:06:55.004 --> 0:06:57.404 And had he known that I called him with the 0:06:57.444 --> 0:06:59.364 hand I had, you know, that would have been I think, 0:06:59.484 --> 0:07:02.524 very valuable information. So in that particular case, it was 0:07:02.724 --> 0:07:05.804 you know, it was a combination of just the way 0:07:05.884 --> 0:07:08.764 that the hand played out, and like I said, the 0:07:08.764 --> 0:07:11.564 fact that he had been very aggressive all day, and 0:07:11.604 --> 0:07:13.444 then there was a there were a few hands against 0:07:13.524 --> 0:07:18.724 Joey Weisman. I love Joey, We're friends. He's an amazing player. 0:07:18.724 --> 0:07:22.444 We've played a lot together, and he did he tried 0:07:22.444 --> 0:07:26.244 to bluff me in a in a spot where he 0:07:26.364 --> 0:07:31.004 had the blocker to the nut flush, and I ended 0:07:31.084 --> 0:07:34.884 up calling without a flush, but with uh, you know, 0:07:34.924 --> 0:07:39.084 with a with a good hand, and it was one 0:07:39.084 --> 0:07:43.044 of those things where he understands gto play so well, 0:07:43.604 --> 0:07:45.644 and the way that I played my hand, it was 0:07:45.764 --> 0:07:48.804 pretty clear that I did not have a flush, and 0:07:48.964 --> 0:07:52.004 so I thought that any good player would probably try 0:07:52.044 --> 0:07:54.844 to exploit that, and he did. You know. I I 0:07:54.924 --> 0:07:57.124 had bet the flop and then I checked her and 0:07:57.244 --> 0:07:59.324 he bet big, and then he over bet the river, 0:07:59.924 --> 0:08:03.244 and I ended up using a time bank because in 0:08:03.284 --> 0:08:05.324 these events you do have a limited amount of time 0:08:05.364 --> 0:08:07.364 to make your decision. So I ended up using a 0:08:07.404 --> 0:08:11.004 time bank, and then I did make the call and 0:08:11.404 --> 0:08:14.324 saw that he had just stays high, but he had 0:08:14.964 --> 0:08:17.884 the right ace, right he had he had the ace 0:08:17.964 --> 0:08:20.164 that you wanted to represent the flush, So it was 0:08:20.164 --> 0:08:25.004 a good bluff. I almost folded, but I'm very glad 0:08:25.004 --> 0:08:27.564 that I ended up making the hero call. And that 0:08:27.724 --> 0:08:29.964 was one of the big hands of that final day 0:08:30.404 --> 0:08:33.244 that made me really keep my chip lead. And it 0:08:33.284 --> 0:08:35.684 made Joey short, which is good because Joe is a 0:08:35.764 --> 0:08:38.044 very good player and he was to my left, and 0:08:38.084 --> 0:08:39.804 it was very good to have him bust out of 0:08:39.804 --> 0:08:42.324 the tournament. It's always nice when players who are better 0:08:42.364 --> 0:08:43.124 than you bust out. 0:08:45.844 --> 0:08:48.204 I have a final table to a final table. The 0:08:48.244 --> 0:08:52.804 five hundred and fifty dollars oh, he said eight mixed event. 0:08:52.884 --> 0:08:57.724 I CONGRATU literally won one thousand dollars gross. 0:08:57.964 --> 0:09:02.324 That's four dollars. Hey, you should be proud. You should 0:09:02.324 --> 0:09:07.244 be proud. 0:09:04.364 --> 0:09:07.284 To Delta tell you that much. 0:09:07.564 --> 0:09:11.844 Nice. Nice. On that note, Nate, let's shift gears a 0:09:11.884 --> 0:09:16.284 little and talk about some political news. So we're recording 0:09:16.284 --> 0:09:20.444 this as always on Monday, November seventeenth. By the time 0:09:20.724 --> 0:09:23.844 you're hearing this, there will be more updates in this. 0:09:23.964 --> 0:09:27.884 But there have been things going on in the Trump 0:09:28.084 --> 0:09:33.044 White House, including major shifts on the Dunk Dunk Dun 0:09:33.484 --> 0:09:38.004 Epstein Files. I feel like we need the X Files 0:09:38.044 --> 0:09:39.884 theme or something playing in the back. 0:09:40.364 --> 0:09:43.404 You know, it's a Harvey Weinstein running for city council 0:09:43.484 --> 0:09:45.804 in my district. That seems like an unfortunate. 0:09:45.564 --> 0:09:49.004 That's amazing, that's amazing. What an unfortunate name. Can you 0:09:49.044 --> 0:09:52.004 imagine running for office with the name Harvey Weinstein? Right now? 0:09:52.884 --> 0:09:55.844 I'm pretty bad. Yeah, eight off, I'm not Let's not 0:09:55.884 --> 0:09:58.084 go there. Let's not go there anyway. I don't mean 0:09:58.124 --> 0:10:02.284 to compare anyway. Friend of the pod now the now 0:10:02.284 --> 0:10:08.244 deceased Jeffrey Epstein. I'm just kidding. I where do you 0:10:08.244 --> 0:10:08.684 want to start. 0:10:08.764 --> 0:10:11.364 Someone's going to go Someone's gonna clip that out of 0:10:11.404 --> 0:10:14.444 context night, Someone's gonna clip that out of context. Okay, 0:10:14.804 --> 0:10:18.204 So just you know, for people who've been hiding under 0:10:18.204 --> 0:10:20.884 a rock, the Epstein files have been a point of 0:10:20.924 --> 0:10:24.644 contention for quite some time. It was part of the 0:10:24.684 --> 0:10:27.724 things that the Republicans and Donald Trump ran on. You 0:10:27.764 --> 0:10:30.604 don't release the Epstein files. Tell us what was going 0:10:30.604 --> 0:10:33.404 on with Jeffrey Epstein. You know, we want to protect 0:10:33.404 --> 0:10:36.724 our children. Once Trump got into office, all of a sudden, 0:10:36.764 --> 0:10:40.204 there was don't release the Epstein files. There's nothing to 0:10:40.244 --> 0:10:43.564 see here. Pam Bondi said, you know nothing to see here. 0:10:44.724 --> 0:10:49.844 Let's move on. But the popular clamor for the files 0:10:49.844 --> 0:10:54.644 never died down. It kept growing, kept gaining momentum. Cue 0:10:55.204 --> 0:10:59.764 the an attempt of the Democrats to actually get the 0:10:59.844 --> 0:11:07.044 files released by circumventing the normal way for a measure 0:11:07.404 --> 0:11:08.604 to come in front of Congress. 0:11:09.084 --> 0:11:15.084 So usually the party that controls Congress has control of 0:11:15.124 --> 0:11:19.484 what is litigated or debated in Congress. In the House, 0:11:19.564 --> 0:11:23.804 there is a mechanism known as a discharge petition, whereas 0:11:23.884 --> 0:11:26.404 if an outright majority of all members of the House, 0:11:26.444 --> 0:11:29.604 which in this case or not in this case with 0:11:29.644 --> 0:11:31.724 four members, the match numbers. 0:11:33.204 --> 0:11:33.404 Yes. 0:11:34.404 --> 0:11:39.284 So there had been two hundred and thirteen Democrats in 0:11:39.324 --> 0:11:44.004 the House, there were four Republicans Thomas Massey, who's kind 0:11:44.004 --> 0:11:48.404 of this libertarian from Kentucky, Nancy Mace, Marjorie Taylor Green 0:11:48.444 --> 0:11:50.644 who is now feuding with Trump, and who's the other, 0:11:51.364 --> 0:11:57.564 Lauren Bobert, and uh so that plus all Democrats was 0:11:57.604 --> 0:12:01.244 two hundred and seventeen. However, Democrats won a special election 0:12:01.364 --> 0:12:05.364 in Arizona. The Republican Mike Johnson, Secret of the House, 0:12:05.884 --> 0:12:08.324 dragged his feet to avoid seating her for as long 0:12:08.324 --> 0:12:11.764 as possible until the show down was over. She finally 0:12:11.804 --> 0:12:14.684 got seated and sworn in. They were now two hundred 0:12:14.724 --> 0:12:16.884 and eighteen to force to vote. By the way, there 0:12:16.884 --> 0:12:18.884 are many other Republicans who are going to who are 0:12:18.924 --> 0:12:25.244 planning to vote for this bill, right, And so what 0:12:25.284 --> 0:12:30.044 Trump finally did was he said on Sunday night that Okay, 0:12:30.444 --> 0:12:34.924 go ahead, House Republicans and vote for this Epstein file. 0:12:35.084 --> 0:12:37.644 It's a big hoax and a big distraction, but like, 0:12:38.164 --> 0:12:41.044 you know, go ahead and vote for it. House Republicans. 0:12:41.284 --> 0:12:44.484 Now hopefully our American listeners though maybe some of you 0:12:44.524 --> 0:12:48.324 Europeans don't know, but we actually have multiple chambers of 0:12:48.364 --> 0:12:52.204 Congress in the US, so the bill has to pass 0:12:52.284 --> 0:12:54.444 the Senate. It also has to be signed by the 0:12:54.484 --> 0:12:58.524 president or you need a veto proof majority two thirds 0:12:58.924 --> 0:13:01.004 to overwrite it. So I thought it was interesting that 0:13:01.004 --> 0:13:05.604 Trump and his language said House Republicans and not Republicans overall. 0:13:05.924 --> 0:13:07.804 So it may be a way for him to save face. 0:13:08.204 --> 0:13:10.164 Is going to lose his vote. Now you kind of 0:13:10.204 --> 0:13:12.844 can't tell, you're like, okay, yeah, throw your you know, 0:13:12.924 --> 0:13:16.284 throw your tomatoes at me. I'll take it. Doesn't necessarily 0:13:16.324 --> 0:13:18.004 means he wants to files release, but that's what's kind 0:13:18.004 --> 0:13:22.084 of foreseen, is like finally, finally the Democrat was seated. 0:13:22.604 --> 0:13:26.444 This petition has been in place since September. In the meantime, 0:13:26.484 --> 0:13:29.644 I believe it's the House Oversight Committee has released some 0:13:29.804 --> 0:13:34.444 files related to Epstein. Trump is mentioned quite a bit 0:13:34.564 --> 0:13:39.964 in there, a lot of speculation. I mean, by the way, Maria, 0:13:40.884 --> 0:13:43.804 do you know that I fucking hate email? I hate 0:13:43.844 --> 0:13:45.044 typing out long emails. 0:13:46.164 --> 0:13:50.324 I know you hate email, Nate, as evidenced by the 0:13:50.364 --> 0:13:52.924 impossibility of getting you to reply to. 0:13:53.644 --> 0:13:58.084 First of all, you freaking scandal. But like if I did, 0:13:58.244 --> 0:14:00.684 I wouldn't fucking email this fucking crazyh. 0:14:00.404 --> 0:14:04.444 Yeah, I mean it's it's actually it's quite crazy to 0:14:04.564 --> 0:14:10.084 me how much is in email form and how many 0:14:10.564 --> 0:14:15.084 ridiculously smart people put things into email that you're like, 0:14:15.364 --> 0:14:19.644 are you fucking kidding me? Like we've obviously you know, 0:14:19.844 --> 0:14:23.404 Trump has mentioned many times Larry Summers, former president of 0:14:23.444 --> 0:14:29.484 Harvard University, current university professor. He has quite the correspondence 0:14:29.564 --> 0:14:32.644 with Epstein. You just see, you know, you see all 0:14:32.684 --> 0:14:35.244 of these people and you're like, guys, you know this 0:14:35.324 --> 0:14:39.244 is email. This ain't even you know, you're emailing Gmail 0:14:39.284 --> 0:14:42.564 account to Gmail account, Like I don't need to be 0:14:42.684 --> 0:14:45.604 a great hacker to be able to hack this. And 0:14:45.604 --> 0:14:49.004 and Nate, how many huge leaks and data breaches have 0:14:49.084 --> 0:14:52.084 we had over the last decade, you know, the Sony emails, 0:14:52.124 --> 0:14:55.084 all of these things. Haven't you seen enough to realize 0:14:55.164 --> 0:14:58.244 that everything you put in an email is going to 0:14:58.284 --> 0:15:00.724 be easy to see? Anyway? This isn't aside, but the 0:15:01.044 --> 0:15:03.804 stuff in these emails, it really is truly mind boggling. 0:15:03.844 --> 0:15:06.044 And obviously there are tons of thousands of them. We've 0:15:06.084 --> 0:15:09.444 only seen the tip of the iceberg. But I I 0:15:09.484 --> 0:15:13.524 want to go back just a second to what you 0:15:13.564 --> 0:15:16.484 were saying about Trump's specific language about you know, House, 0:15:16.604 --> 0:15:19.084 go ahead, you know, I want you to release this, 0:15:19.484 --> 0:15:22.204 which is a huge about face. You know, this U 0:15:22.244 --> 0:15:25.164 turn that he pulled to try, I think, as you say, 0:15:25.204 --> 0:15:28.124 to save face, because it was very clear that this 0:15:28.284 --> 0:15:30.644 was going to happen no matter what. Now it looks 0:15:30.684 --> 0:15:32.604 like he's saying, oh, well, I have nothing to hide 0:15:32.884 --> 0:15:35.684 right going on the offense, but we still need the 0:15:35.724 --> 0:15:39.124 Senate unclear if it's going to pass the Senate, and 0:15:39.404 --> 0:15:43.524 on Friday he also issued a command to his favorite 0:15:43.564 --> 0:15:49.604 Pam Bondi to start investigating some of the Democrats that 0:15:49.764 --> 0:15:54.724 are in the emails, such as Clinton and Summers. What 0:15:54.764 --> 0:15:58.884 that means is that he actually has another lever through 0:15:58.924 --> 0:16:03.524 which he can suppress some of these files even if 0:16:03.764 --> 0:16:07.444 the measure passes both the House and the Senate, because 0:16:07.484 --> 0:16:11.324 if they're part of an active investigation, you can say, oh, 0:16:11.684 --> 0:16:14.484 you know, for the integrity of the investigation, we can't 0:16:14.524 --> 0:16:18.964 actually release them. So he has a few different points 0:16:19.004 --> 0:16:22.284 that he could play going forward where we might not. 0:16:22.444 --> 0:16:25.324 You know, people might think, oh, slam dunk, like he's done, 0:16:25.324 --> 0:16:28.204 he's in a quarter. Not so right. There are lots 0:16:28.204 --> 0:16:31.004 of strategic exits that are still left and lots of 0:16:31.004 --> 0:16:32.084 plays still remaining. 0:16:33.804 --> 0:16:36.044 The lopside being, you have subpoena power, you have Freedom 0:16:36.044 --> 0:16:41.844 of Information Act, you have leaks to the media, you know, 0:16:41.884 --> 0:16:43.844 and you have a lot of members of congressman various 0:16:43.844 --> 0:16:46.124 committees who have access to some of these things, and 0:16:46.164 --> 0:16:53.764 so you know, you can do also reporting by organizations 0:16:53.804 --> 0:16:56.684 and organizations. It's not what the federal government is doing. 0:16:57.044 --> 0:16:59.404 If that information is out there, there's a good chance 0:16:59.404 --> 0:17:04.164 it will be discovered eventually. You can make it to 0:17:04.204 --> 0:17:05.244 silver bulletin. 0:17:04.924 --> 0:17:05.444 If you want. 0:17:06.684 --> 0:17:11.244 I have to check our viability insurance situation. Probably would 0:17:11.244 --> 0:17:14.604 get sued. It might be good for subscriptions at first, right, 0:17:14.684 --> 0:17:17.764 I am I even sued by the president subscribed to 0:17:17.804 --> 0:17:20.124 silver Bulletin. No, I would say that it would be 0:17:20.204 --> 0:17:22.124 much more eloquent. Why want to making that baby voice? 0:17:22.164 --> 0:17:23.764 That would be a good fucking That would be a 0:17:23.804 --> 0:17:24.924 good reason to subscribe. 0:17:25.524 --> 0:17:26.964 You need a different voice for that night. 0:17:28.284 --> 0:17:30.764 I've been sued. I am an impartial journalist. I've been 0:17:30.804 --> 0:17:32.604 sued by. 0:17:32.004 --> 0:17:33.244 Yes, the BBC voice. 0:17:33.284 --> 0:17:37.124 That's perfect, okay, but there are ways for the information 0:17:37.164 --> 0:17:38.004 to get out, right. 0:17:38.084 --> 0:17:41.164 I mean, look, yep, absolutely. 0:17:40.604 --> 0:17:44.524 The initial news in July that Trump had been named 0:17:44.604 --> 0:17:48.324 in the Epstein piles didn't actually seem to move the 0:17:48.364 --> 0:17:50.644 needle all that much. Right, There was a little bit 0:17:50.644 --> 0:17:53.244 of a tickdown and the popularity the tickdown seemed to 0:17:53.284 --> 0:17:57.524 be more about the obstruction than anything. Right. When Pam 0:17:57.564 --> 0:18:02.284 Bondi said, oh, well, wea it and it turns out 0:18:02.564 --> 0:18:05.204 nothing funny going on there, you know, let's not let's 0:18:05.244 --> 0:18:07.644 not let's not keep litigating this. Let's move on to 0:18:07.684 --> 0:18:14.084 the things it really matter to the American peace and nobody, nobody, nobody, but. 0:18:15.844 --> 0:18:23.524 I'm sorry your pambody voices stylistic yes, but absolutely. 0:18:23.324 --> 0:18:26.124 But like nobody somebody bought Nobody bought that right, nobody. 0:18:26.404 --> 0:18:28.564 No. And by the way, Pam Bondi is now obviously 0:18:28.764 --> 0:18:31.244 doing it about face because before she said absolutely nothing 0:18:31.284 --> 0:18:34.404 to investigate, and then on Friday she opened investigations, so 0:18:35.804 --> 0:18:39.084 clearly one of the two Pam Bondis was lying. 0:18:39.284 --> 0:18:44.564 So to me, the question is, are we passed not 0:18:44.604 --> 0:18:49.804 necessarily some type of inflection point, but like, is Trump 0:18:49.924 --> 0:18:54.444 in some sort of a lame duck downward spiral? Which 0:18:54.444 --> 0:18:56.964 you're not quite the same thing right. By lame duck, 0:18:57.004 --> 0:19:00.284 I mean so Trump technically is a lame duck unless 0:19:00.284 --> 0:19:03.604 he figures out a way to run for a third term. 0:19:03.644 --> 0:19:06.404 I don't know, I know we should dignify that or not, 0:19:06.564 --> 0:19:10.364 but like putting that aside for now, he has a 0:19:10.444 --> 0:19:11.884 lame duck in the sense that he can't run for 0:19:11.884 --> 0:19:14.004 president again. But by lame duck, I really mean like, 0:19:15.084 --> 0:19:20.244 does he lack the political capital to have the agenda 0:19:20.284 --> 0:19:24.884 setting power, the juice to get things done. In addition 0:19:25.004 --> 0:19:29.484 to this Epstein stuff, there are now more Republicans ignoring 0:19:29.564 --> 0:19:33.084 him on redistricting. Indiana, where there are two Democrats, seems 0:19:33.124 --> 0:19:35.644 not to want to redistrict. I think some of these 0:19:35.644 --> 0:19:39.764 Republicans have been spooked by Democratic success in New Jersey, 0:19:40.284 --> 0:19:43.404 Virginia and so forth. You know, you can have districts 0:19:43.404 --> 0:19:48.364 that are R plus ten, meaning up by ten points. 0:19:48.484 --> 0:19:52.004 Those aren't necessarily safe in a blue wave year, and 0:19:52.084 --> 0:19:54.924 so they might be worried about that. They might thinking, okay, well, 0:19:54.964 --> 0:19:57.284 actually Democrats have shown in California that we can have 0:19:57.324 --> 0:20:00.524 this kind of mutually assured destruction where nobody wins, right, 0:20:00.564 --> 0:20:08.004 and so the game theory is interesting and will be 0:20:08.084 --> 0:20:21.004 right back after this break. If you look at the 0:20:21.124 --> 0:20:25.164 ratings for approval ratings for presence and their second term, 0:20:25.404 --> 0:20:30.964 they're much less resilient. And there are cases like Bush 0:20:31.164 --> 0:20:37.604 in particular, where it was just a downward trend. You know, 0:20:37.724 --> 0:20:42.804 Nixon also because of Watergate, where it deteriorated very fast. 0:20:42.924 --> 0:20:47.644 You know, Truman surprised people by defeating Dewey despite headlines 0:20:47.684 --> 0:20:50.124 of the nineteen forty eight election, was very unpopular in 0:20:50.164 --> 0:20:52.924 his second term, kind of a straight downward arrow, and 0:20:52.964 --> 0:20:57.804 so like once you kind of you know, you don't 0:20:57.844 --> 0:20:59.924 necessarily have your party coming to your defense if you 0:20:59.924 --> 0:21:02.484 don't have to run for election again. In fact, you 0:21:02.524 --> 0:21:05.364 have Republicans maybe positioning themselves for what does life look 0:21:05.484 --> 0:21:10.324 like posts Trump? Right, We've written or talked a lot 0:21:10.324 --> 0:21:11.924 in the show about how Democrats are still a mess. 0:21:11.924 --> 0:21:17.204 It's certainly a very valuable nomination to have in twenty eight, right, 0:21:18.404 --> 0:21:21.844 assuming there's not a constitutional crisis, then they have to 0:21:21.884 --> 0:21:27.484 nominate somebody else, and the jockeying for that starts now. 0:21:27.724 --> 0:21:29.684 It's definitely occurring among Democrats already. 0:21:29.804 --> 0:21:30.044 And so. 0:21:31.524 --> 0:21:35.604 Yeah, I think the base case is always that you know, 0:21:35.644 --> 0:21:38.724 Trump is a high floor, low ceiling, high floor, but 0:21:38.844 --> 0:21:41.044 you never know, there's enough history of second term presidents 0:21:41.844 --> 0:21:44.444 actually going to this downward spiral where first term presidents 0:21:44.484 --> 0:21:48.524 tend to have this U shape or swoosh Nike shape recovery. 0:21:48.724 --> 0:21:51.924 Yeah, I'll be very curious to see how this plays out. 0:21:51.964 --> 0:21:54.004 And I think a lot of it is going to 0:21:54.044 --> 0:21:57.244 depend not on the Epstein files, but on economic indicators, 0:21:57.324 --> 0:22:01.284 right on what is happening with the economy, what's happening 0:22:01.284 --> 0:22:05.924 with inflation. Basically, how is the American public feeling and 0:22:06.884 --> 0:22:09.244 are they what's going to happen with snap benefits, you know, 0:22:09.524 --> 0:22:13.084 Trump asking everyone to reapply for snap benefits with all 0:22:13.444 --> 0:22:17.164 of these different elements. You know, this is a puzzle 0:22:17.404 --> 0:22:20.204 right now. That is you know, Trump has a lot 0:22:20.244 --> 0:22:23.124 of different things that he has to manage correctly in 0:22:23.244 --> 0:22:26.724 order for there not to be a downward spiral. And 0:22:26.804 --> 0:22:29.764 we've talked before many many times on the show, how 0:22:29.924 --> 0:22:32.684 you know, nothing seems to matter right like he happens. 0:22:33.284 --> 0:22:36.484 It seems like he can rebound from anything negative. This 0:22:36.564 --> 0:22:41.004 is the first time night that we're actually seeing in 0:22:41.244 --> 0:22:43.884 since he became president in term number two. This is 0:22:43.924 --> 0:22:47.004 the first time I think that we've seen cracks in 0:22:47.364 --> 0:22:52.564 you know, this monolithic Republican support for Trump in the 0:22:52.604 --> 0:22:56.524 House right before, like basically whatever he wanted, they were 0:22:56.604 --> 0:23:02.364 rubber stamping, they were getting. They were basically even not 0:23:02.844 --> 0:23:04.924 doing what they were supposed to be doing, right. They 0:23:04.964 --> 0:23:08.164 were abdicating their powers of the purse. They were letting 0:23:08.364 --> 0:23:12.044 kind if Trump pass legislation. I realized that Trump isn't 0:23:12.044 --> 0:23:14.724 passing legislation, that's what Congress does, but they were really 0:23:14.804 --> 0:23:18.484 letting that Trump pass this legislation, tariffs, all of these 0:23:18.484 --> 0:23:24.204 different things, and they are finally starting to kind of 0:23:24.364 --> 0:23:26.364 crack a little bit, at least that's what it looks 0:23:26.444 --> 0:23:28.724 like right now. It's certainly I mean, it happened with 0:23:28.764 --> 0:23:31.484 the two hundred and eighteen signatures, right, you actually did 0:23:31.524 --> 0:23:35.724 have the breaking of ranks, So I would really you know, 0:23:35.884 --> 0:23:38.644 I'm very curious to see how this ends up playing 0:23:38.644 --> 0:23:41.564 out and what happens in the Senate. Right Is the 0:23:41.564 --> 0:23:44.364 Senate going to fracture as well after in the wake 0:23:44.404 --> 0:23:48.444 of what happened in the House. Is Trump going to 0:23:49.364 --> 0:23:51.324 is the fact that he said, oh fine, go ahead, 0:23:51.364 --> 0:23:53.444 you know, vote for this thing. We have nothing to hide. 0:23:53.644 --> 0:23:57.484 Is that actually going to propel this through the Senate 0:23:57.524 --> 0:24:00.564 as well? Is he going to backtrack yet again? How 0:24:00.604 --> 0:24:02.524 is this going to play out? And what does that 0:24:02.644 --> 0:24:07.084 mean for his ability to pass everything he wants to 0:24:07.124 --> 0:24:11.084