1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:29,564 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business show about making better decisions. 2 00:00:29,684 --> 00:00:31,324 Speaker 1: I'm Maria Kannakova. 3 00:00:31,364 --> 00:00:33,724 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver, So Nate. 4 00:00:33,764 --> 00:00:37,724 Speaker 1: Today on the show, we're talking about some important things 5 00:00:38,804 --> 00:00:42,444 Speaker 1: that are going on in UH in the government right now. 6 00:00:42,884 --> 00:00:45,404 Speaker 1: The name Jeffrey Epstein probably rings a bell to some 7 00:00:45,484 --> 00:00:47,964 Speaker 1: of our listeners. By the way, please. 8 00:00:47,724 --> 00:00:53,524 Speaker 2: Experience I've never heard of the guy with Maria. I'll 9 00:00:54,044 --> 00:00:56,404 Speaker 2: I think I think I changed emails with him once. 10 00:01:00,324 --> 00:01:03,444 Speaker 1: Add on that note, yes, I am actually taping this 11 00:01:03,604 --> 00:01:08,964 Speaker 1: from an office location, so you might hear some more 12 00:01:09,004 --> 00:01:13,844 Speaker 1: background noise than usual. But yet you and I are 13 00:01:14,004 --> 00:01:15,764 Speaker 1: both back from Vegas. 14 00:01:15,844 --> 00:01:19,404 Speaker 2: Nate, well, First of Maria, I want to congratulate you 15 00:01:20,404 --> 00:01:26,444 Speaker 2: for winning a poker championship trophy. You won the five 16 00:01:26,484 --> 00:01:30,164 Speaker 2: thousand dollars no limit hold Them event at the North 17 00:01:30,244 --> 00:01:32,804 Speaker 2: is it North American Poker Tour anyway, we were both 18 00:01:32,804 --> 00:01:37,444 Speaker 2: out in Vegas. This is the last event of this 19 00:01:37,684 --> 00:01:41,964 Speaker 2: NAPT series. But it's a tough event, five thousand dollars 20 00:01:41,964 --> 00:01:44,484 Speaker 2: price point. I want to be super honest, I thought 21 00:01:44,524 --> 00:01:47,924 Speaker 2: it was a fairly tough tournament. A lot of rags, 22 00:01:47,924 --> 00:01:51,564 Speaker 2: a lot of Vegas local pros. There not the softest 23 00:01:51,564 --> 00:01:56,364 Speaker 2: field I've ever played. I flew home scared. Maria played 24 00:01:56,724 --> 00:01:58,964 Speaker 2: this five thousand dollars event, actually won the fucking event. 25 00:01:59,164 --> 00:02:05,484 Speaker 2: Tell us a little bit about that, Maria. 26 00:02:03,004 --> 00:02:06,604 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Nate. Yeah, it was the fifty 27 00:02:06,604 --> 00:02:10,524 Speaker 1: three hundred high roller, the final high roller of the series, 28 00:02:11,284 --> 00:02:15,084 Speaker 1: and I had busted out of the ten k high roller, 29 00:02:15,724 --> 00:02:20,004 Speaker 1: as had you. We were playing that together and then 30 00:02:20,804 --> 00:02:24,404 Speaker 1: decided that, you know what, let's let's do one last hurrah. 31 00:02:24,484 --> 00:02:27,364 Speaker 1: I tried to convince you to play, and you said. 32 00:02:27,204 --> 00:02:29,644 Speaker 2: I would have had to. I would have had to 33 00:02:30,244 --> 00:02:35,764 Speaker 2: downgrade from a business class seat on Delta to coach on. 34 00:02:35,884 --> 00:02:37,404 Speaker 2: I would have had to take a red eye on 35 00:02:37,764 --> 00:02:40,924 Speaker 2: Spirit Airlines. Maria, there are some things that are negative 36 00:02:40,924 --> 00:02:44,684 Speaker 2: expected value. But if I had known I would win 37 00:02:44,724 --> 00:02:47,924 Speaker 2: the tournament, then I would have Then I would have 38 00:02:48,084 --> 00:02:52,004 Speaker 2: happily flown Spirit Airlines. But Maria, this is amazing. 39 00:02:52,324 --> 00:02:55,204 Speaker 1: It's it's I was. I was just about to make 40 00:02:55,244 --> 00:02:57,244 Speaker 1: the joke. Note that I'm glad that you decided not 41 00:02:57,324 --> 00:02:59,804 Speaker 1: to downgrade because I would have had to come in second. 42 00:03:00,404 --> 00:03:03,724 Speaker 1: So oh, I'm glad I got to win. So thank you. 43 00:03:03,844 --> 00:03:07,484 Speaker 1: Thank you for flying home in business class it was. 44 00:03:08,124 --> 00:03:11,324 Speaker 1: You know, it's always an amazing experience to win a tournament, 45 00:03:12,604 --> 00:03:16,364 Speaker 1: but there's something extra special about winning a high roller 46 00:03:16,404 --> 00:03:19,404 Speaker 1: where the fields are tough. You know, it feels really 47 00:03:19,444 --> 00:03:23,364 Speaker 1: good when you are able to hold your own and 48 00:03:23,484 --> 00:03:27,284 Speaker 1: kind of prevail against opponents who you know, most of 49 00:03:27,284 --> 00:03:30,364 Speaker 1: them are a lot better players than I am. I'm 50 00:03:30,444 --> 00:03:34,604 Speaker 1: not afraid to say that. And you know it feel 51 00:03:34,724 --> 00:03:37,044 Speaker 1: it feels good when you can actually make it happen. 52 00:03:38,004 --> 00:03:41,244 Speaker 1: I did you know I started It was a multi 53 00:03:41,324 --> 00:03:44,444 Speaker 1: day event, and I started the final day, day day two, 54 00:03:44,644 --> 00:03:47,444 Speaker 1: as the chip leader, which is always a great position 55 00:03:47,524 --> 00:03:50,324 Speaker 1: to be in, but that usually does not translate right. 56 00:03:50,244 --> 00:03:53,484 Speaker 2: Now, it's am, It's almost you have to like remind 57 00:03:53,484 --> 00:03:57,404 Speaker 2: yourself that, like, oh, I'm chip leader at the end 58 00:03:57,444 --> 00:04:00,564 Speaker 2: of day one, fifth and chips out of a thousand people. Yeah, 59 00:04:00,644 --> 00:04:03,924 Speaker 2: your odds of winning are not that much higher than 60 00:04:03,924 --> 00:04:06,084 Speaker 2: they were at the start. Your odds of cashing oftener 61 00:04:06,284 --> 00:04:09,324 Speaker 2: even depends, right, even your adds of cashing can be 62 00:04:09,444 --> 00:04:11,164 Speaker 2: love fifty fifty, right, So you have to you have 63 00:04:11,244 --> 00:04:12,924 Speaker 2: to not rest on your laurels. 64 00:04:14,124 --> 00:04:20,084 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly right. Yeah, not resting on your laurels 65 00:04:20,124 --> 00:04:24,284 Speaker 1: and like being able to get to keep everything going 66 00:04:25,484 --> 00:04:31,484 Speaker 1: is a really, uh really tough thing to do. And I, 67 00:04:31,924 --> 00:04:35,164 Speaker 1: you know, it was one of those days where everything 68 00:04:35,204 --> 00:04:37,404 Speaker 1: went right. You know, all of my bluffs got through. 69 00:04:37,764 --> 00:04:39,884 Speaker 1: You know, when I went all in with Jack High, 70 00:04:39,964 --> 00:04:43,244 Speaker 1: I got the sold I didn't get the call, and 71 00:04:43,684 --> 00:04:46,044 Speaker 1: I got the calls in the big spots where I 72 00:04:46,084 --> 00:04:49,604 Speaker 1: actually had really good hands. That's what needs to happen, 73 00:04:49,684 --> 00:04:52,004 Speaker 1: right Like, you need to make some hands and get calls, 74 00:04:52,084 --> 00:04:54,644 Speaker 1: and you need to be able to you know, play 75 00:04:54,684 --> 00:04:56,684 Speaker 1: when you don't have the best hands. And I also 76 00:04:56,724 --> 00:04:59,284 Speaker 1: made some really good call downs. There were a few 77 00:04:59,324 --> 00:05:02,364 Speaker 1: pots that gave me a lot of chips where really 78 00:05:02,364 --> 00:05:06,164 Speaker 1: good players bluffed into me and I was able to 79 00:05:06,284 --> 00:05:11,404 Speaker 1: call down with with with the hands that made me 80 00:05:11,444 --> 00:05:14,684 Speaker 1: close my eyes and call instead of you know, slam 81 00:05:14,764 --> 00:05:17,644 Speaker 1: dunk calling. I was based on Are there. 82 00:05:17,604 --> 00:05:19,964 Speaker 2: Any particular players you want to mention? Is this based 83 00:05:20,004 --> 00:05:23,644 Speaker 2: on gto? Is it based on live reads? Is it 84 00:05:23,644 --> 00:05:26,524 Speaker 2: based on your expectation of how people play against you? 85 00:05:26,564 --> 00:05:28,484 Speaker 2: Do they do you think they think you're overfolding? 86 00:05:29,004 --> 00:05:32,124 Speaker 1: So I think that it's a combination of all of 87 00:05:32,164 --> 00:05:36,964 Speaker 1: these things. There was a one player who I haven't 88 00:05:36,964 --> 00:05:41,444 Speaker 1: played with before, and he'd been he'd been running well 89 00:05:41,484 --> 00:05:46,084 Speaker 1: the whole series, he'd had some good results, and I 90 00:05:46,164 --> 00:05:48,844 Speaker 1: felt like he was, you know, trying to take advantage 91 00:05:49,124 --> 00:05:51,964 Speaker 1: of that a little bit. And so this was actually 92 00:05:51,964 --> 00:05:54,244 Speaker 1: one of the hands that made me into the chip leader. 93 00:05:54,804 --> 00:06:01,844 Speaker 1: On day two, he triple barrel bluffed into me where 94 00:06:02,364 --> 00:06:04,404 Speaker 1: I ended up having a straight. But I had a 95 00:06:04,404 --> 00:06:07,444 Speaker 1: straight on a double parrot board. So for people who 96 00:06:07,564 --> 00:06:11,004 Speaker 1: don't play poker, not a very strong hand in that 97 00:06:11,044 --> 00:06:14,684 Speaker 1: particular case, because if you, you know, if you're holding 98 00:06:14,724 --> 00:06:18,444 Speaker 1: any one of the other cards, you have a full house. 99 00:06:18,604 --> 00:06:21,324 Speaker 1: And he was the button and the two cards that 100 00:06:21,364 --> 00:06:23,844 Speaker 1: were paired were a Queen and a ten, So those 101 00:06:23,884 --> 00:06:26,604 Speaker 1: were both very likely cards for the button to have 102 00:06:26,684 --> 00:06:31,044 Speaker 1: and for the button to represent, And in that particular case, 103 00:06:31,084 --> 00:06:33,964 Speaker 1: there was just some spidey sense that just made me 104 00:06:34,084 --> 00:06:36,164 Speaker 1: hit the call button. And I actually have no idea 105 00:06:36,164 --> 00:06:39,484 Speaker 1: what he had because he mucked his hand, which is 106 00:06:39,524 --> 00:06:44,924 Speaker 1: something that I actually never never advocate players do. So 107 00:06:45,044 --> 00:06:46,644 Speaker 1: if you mock your hand, that means I don't have 108 00:06:46,684 --> 00:06:50,644 Speaker 1: to show my hand, right, So that means that he 109 00:06:50,684 --> 00:06:54,564 Speaker 1: doesn't get the information with what I was calling him with, 110 00:06:55,004 --> 00:06:57,404 Speaker 1: And had he known that I called him with the 111 00:06:57,444 --> 00:06:59,364 Speaker 1: hand I had, you know, that would have been I think, 112 00:06:59,484 --> 00:07:02,524 Speaker 1: very valuable information. So in that particular case, it was 113 00:07:02,724 --> 00:07:05,804 Speaker 1: you know, it was a combination of just the way 114 00:07:05,884 --> 00:07:08,764 Speaker 1: that the hand played out, and like I said, the 115 00:07:08,764 --> 00:07:11,564 Speaker 1: fact that he had been very aggressive all day, and 116 00:07:11,604 --> 00:07:13,444 Speaker 1: then there was a there were a few hands against 117 00:07:13,524 --> 00:07:18,724 Speaker 1: Joey Weisman. I love Joey, We're friends. He's an amazing player. 118 00:07:18,724 --> 00:07:22,444 Speaker 1: We've played a lot together, and he did he tried 119 00:07:22,444 --> 00:07:26,244 Speaker 1: to bluff me in a in a spot where he 120 00:07:26,364 --> 00:07:31,004 Speaker 1: had the blocker to the nut flush, and I ended 121 00:07:31,084 --> 00:07:34,884 Speaker 1: up calling without a flush, but with uh, you know, 122 00:07:34,924 --> 00:07:39,084 Speaker 1: with a with a good hand, and it was one 123 00:07:39,084 --> 00:07:43,044 Speaker 1: of those things where he understands gto play so well, 124 00:07:43,604 --> 00:07:45,644 Speaker 1: and the way that I played my hand, it was 125 00:07:45,764 --> 00:07:48,804 Speaker 1: pretty clear that I did not have a flush, and 126 00:07:48,964 --> 00:07:52,004 Speaker 1: so I thought that any good player would probably try 127 00:07:52,044 --> 00:07:54,844 Speaker 1: to exploit that, and he did. You know. I I 128 00:07:54,924 --> 00:07:57,124 Speaker 1: had bet the flop and then I checked her and 129 00:07:57,244 --> 00:07:59,324 Speaker 1: he bet big, and then he over bet the river, 130 00:07:59,924 --> 00:08:03,244 Speaker 1: and I ended up using a time bank because in 131 00:08:03,284 --> 00:08:05,324 Speaker 1: these events you do have a limited amount of time 132 00:08:05,364 --> 00:08:07,364 Speaker 1: to make your decision. So I ended up using a 133 00:08:07,404 --> 00:08:11,004 Speaker 1: time bank, and then I did make the call and 134 00:08:11,404 --> 00:08:14,324 Speaker 1: saw that he had just stays high, but he had 135 00:08:14,964 --> 00:08:17,884 Speaker 1: the right ace, right he had he had the ace 136 00:08:17,964 --> 00:08:20,164 Speaker 1: that you wanted to represent the flush, So it was 137 00:08:20,164 --> 00:08:25,004 Speaker 1: a good bluff. I almost folded, but I'm very glad 138 00:08:25,004 --> 00:08:27,564 Speaker 1: that I ended up making the hero call. And that 139 00:08:27,724 --> 00:08:29,964 Speaker 1: was one of the big hands of that final day 140 00:08:30,404 --> 00:08:33,244 Speaker 1: that made me really keep my chip lead. And it 141 00:08:33,284 --> 00:08:35,684 Speaker 1: made Joey short, which is good because Joe is a 142 00:08:35,764 --> 00:08:38,044 Speaker 1: very good player and he was to my left, and 143 00:08:38,084 --> 00:08:39,804 Speaker 1: it was very good to have him bust out of 144 00:08:39,804 --> 00:08:42,324 Speaker 1: the tournament. It's always nice when players who are better 145 00:08:42,364 --> 00:08:43,124 Speaker 1: than you bust out. 146 00:08:45,844 --> 00:08:48,204 Speaker 2: I have a final table to a final table. The 147 00:08:48,244 --> 00:08:52,804 Speaker 2: five hundred and fifty dollars oh, he said eight mixed event. 148 00:08:52,884 --> 00:08:57,724 Speaker 2: I CONGRATU literally won one thousand dollars gross. 149 00:08:57,964 --> 00:09:02,324 Speaker 1: That's four dollars. Hey, you should be proud. You should 150 00:09:02,324 --> 00:09:07,244 Speaker 1: be proud. 151 00:09:04,364 --> 00:09:07,284 Speaker 2: To Delta tell you that much. 152 00:09:07,564 --> 00:09:11,844 Speaker 1: Nice. Nice. On that note, Nate, let's shift gears a 153 00:09:11,884 --> 00:09:16,284 Speaker 1: little and talk about some political news. So we're recording 154 00:09:16,284 --> 00:09:20,444 Speaker 1: this as always on Monday, November seventeenth. By the time 155 00:09:20,724 --> 00:09:23,844 Speaker 1: you're hearing this, there will be more updates in this. 156 00:09:23,964 --> 00:09:27,884 Speaker 1: But there have been things going on in the Trump 157 00:09:28,084 --> 00:09:33,044 Speaker 1: White House, including major shifts on the Dunk Dunk Dun 158 00:09:33,484 --> 00:09:38,004 Speaker 1: Epstein Files. I feel like we need the X Files 159 00:09:38,044 --> 00:09:39,884 Speaker 1: theme or something playing in the back. 160 00:09:40,364 --> 00:09:43,404 Speaker 2: You know, it's a Harvey Weinstein running for city council 161 00:09:43,484 --> 00:09:45,804 Speaker 2: in my district. That seems like an unfortunate. 162 00:09:45,564 --> 00:09:49,004 Speaker 1: That's amazing, that's amazing. What an unfortunate name. Can you 163 00:09:49,044 --> 00:09:52,004 Speaker 1: imagine running for office with the name Harvey Weinstein? Right now? 164 00:09:52,884 --> 00:09:55,844 Speaker 2: I'm pretty bad. Yeah, eight off, I'm not Let's not 165 00:09:55,884 --> 00:09:58,084 Speaker 2: go there. Let's not go there anyway. I don't mean 166 00:09:58,124 --> 00:10:02,284 Speaker 2: to compare anyway. Friend of the pod now the now 167 00:10:02,284 --> 00:10:08,244 Speaker 2: deceased Jeffrey Epstein. I'm just kidding. I where do you 168 00:10:08,244 --> 00:10:08,684 Speaker 2: want to start. 169 00:10:08,764 --> 00:10:11,364 Speaker 1: Someone's going to go Someone's gonna clip that out of 170 00:10:11,404 --> 00:10:14,444 Speaker 1: context night, Someone's gonna clip that out of context. Okay, 171 00:10:14,804 --> 00:10:18,204 Speaker 1: So just you know, for people who've been hiding under 172 00:10:18,204 --> 00:10:20,884 Speaker 1: a rock, the Epstein files have been a point of 173 00:10:20,924 --> 00:10:24,644 Speaker 1: contention for quite some time. It was part of the 174 00:10:24,684 --> 00:10:27,724 Speaker 1: things that the Republicans and Donald Trump ran on. You 175 00:10:27,764 --> 00:10:30,604 Speaker 1: don't release the Epstein files. Tell us what was going 176 00:10:30,604 --> 00:10:33,404 Speaker 1: on with Jeffrey Epstein. You know, we want to protect 177 00:10:33,404 --> 00:10:36,724 Speaker 1: our children. Once Trump got into office, all of a sudden, 178 00:10:36,764 --> 00:10:40,204 Speaker 1: there was don't release the Epstein files. There's nothing to 179 00:10:40,244 --> 00:10:43,564 Speaker 1: see here. Pam Bondi said, you know nothing to see here. 180 00:10:44,724 --> 00:10:49,844 Speaker 1: Let's move on. But the popular clamor for the files 181 00:10:49,844 --> 00:10:54,644 Speaker 1: never died down. It kept growing, kept gaining momentum. Cue 182 00:10:55,204 --> 00:10:59,764 Speaker 1: the an attempt of the Democrats to actually get the 183 00:10:59,844 --> 00:11:07,044 Speaker 1: files released by circumventing the normal way for a measure 184 00:11:07,404 --> 00:11:08,604 Speaker 1: to come in front of Congress. 185 00:11:09,084 --> 00:11:15,084 Speaker 2: So usually the party that controls Congress has control of 186 00:11:15,124 --> 00:11:19,484 Speaker 2: what is litigated or debated in Congress. In the House, 187 00:11:19,564 --> 00:11:23,804 Speaker 2: there is a mechanism known as a discharge petition, whereas 188 00:11:23,884 --> 00:11:26,404 Speaker 2: if an outright majority of all members of the House, 189 00:11:26,444 --> 00:11:29,604 Speaker 2: which in this case or not in this case with 190 00:11:29,644 --> 00:11:31,724 Speaker 2: four members, the match numbers. 191 00:11:33,204 --> 00:11:33,404 Speaker 1: Yes. 192 00:11:34,404 --> 00:11:39,284 Speaker 2: So there had been two hundred and thirteen Democrats in 193 00:11:39,324 --> 00:11:44,004 Speaker 2: the House, there were four Republicans Thomas Massey, who's kind 194 00:11:44,004 --> 00:11:48,404 Speaker 2: of this libertarian from Kentucky, Nancy Mace, Marjorie Taylor Green 195 00:11:48,444 --> 00:11:50,644 Speaker 2: who is now feuding with Trump, and who's the other, 196 00:11:51,364 --> 00:11:57,564 Speaker 2: Lauren Bobert, and uh so that plus all Democrats was 197 00:11:57,604 --> 00:12:01,244 Speaker 2: two hundred and seventeen. However, Democrats won a special election 198 00:12:01,364 --> 00:12:05,364 Speaker 2: in Arizona. The Republican Mike Johnson, Secret of the House, 199 00:12:05,884 --> 00:12:08,324 Speaker 2: dragged his feet to avoid seating her for as long 200 00:12:08,324 --> 00:12:11,764 Speaker 2: as possible until the show down was over. She finally 201 00:12:11,804 --> 00:12:14,684 Speaker 2: got seated and sworn in. They were now two hundred 202 00:12:14,724 --> 00:12:16,884 Speaker 2: and eighteen to force to vote. By the way, there 203 00:12:16,884 --> 00:12:18,884 Speaker 2: are many other Republicans who are going to who are 204 00:12:18,924 --> 00:12:25,244 Speaker 2: planning to vote for this bill, right, And so what 205 00:12:25,284 --> 00:12:30,044 Speaker 2: Trump finally did was he said on Sunday night that Okay, 206 00:12:30,444 --> 00:12:34,924 Speaker 2: go ahead, House Republicans and vote for this Epstein file. 207 00:12:35,084 --> 00:12:37,644 Speaker 2: It's a big hoax and a big distraction, but like, 208 00:12:38,164 --> 00:12:41,044 Speaker 2: you know, go ahead and vote for it. House Republicans. 209 00:12:41,284 --> 00:12:44,484 Speaker 2: Now hopefully our American listeners though maybe some of you 210 00:12:44,524 --> 00:12:48,324 Speaker 2: Europeans don't know, but we actually have multiple chambers of 211 00:12:48,364 --> 00:12:52,204 Speaker 2: Congress in the US, so the bill has to pass 212 00:12:52,284 --> 00:12:54,444 Speaker 2: the Senate. It also has to be signed by the 213 00:12:54,484 --> 00:12:58,524 Speaker 2: president or you need a veto proof majority two thirds 214 00:12:58,924 --> 00:13:01,004 Speaker 2: to overwrite it. So I thought it was interesting that 215 00:13:01,004 --> 00:13:05,604 Speaker 2: Trump and his language said House Republicans and not Republicans overall. 216 00:13:05,924 --> 00:13:07,804 Speaker 2: So it may be a way for him to save face. 217 00:13:08,204 --> 00:13:10,164 Speaker 2: Is going to lose his vote. Now you kind of 218 00:13:10,204 --> 00:13:12,844 Speaker 2: can't tell, you're like, okay, yeah, throw your you know, 219 00:13:12,924 --> 00:13:16,284 Speaker 2: throw your tomatoes at me. I'll take it. Doesn't necessarily 220 00:13:16,324 --> 00:13:18,004 Speaker 2: means he wants to files release, but that's what's kind 221 00:13:18,004 --> 00:13:22,084 Speaker 2: of foreseen, is like finally, finally the Democrat was seated. 222 00:13:22,604 --> 00:13:26,444 Speaker 2: This petition has been in place since September. In the meantime, 223 00:13:26,484 --> 00:13:29,644 Speaker 2: I believe it's the House Oversight Committee has released some 224 00:13:29,804 --> 00:13:34,444 Speaker 2: files related to Epstein. Trump is mentioned quite a bit 225 00:13:34,564 --> 00:13:39,964 Speaker 2: in there, a lot of speculation. I mean, by the way, Maria, 226 00:13:40,884 --> 00:13:43,804 Speaker 2: do you know that I fucking hate email? I hate 227 00:13:43,844 --> 00:13:45,044 Speaker 2: typing out long emails. 228 00:13:46,164 --> 00:13:50,324 Speaker 1: I know you hate email, Nate, as evidenced by the 229 00:13:50,364 --> 00:13:52,924 Speaker 1: impossibility of getting you to reply to. 230 00:13:53,644 --> 00:13:58,084 Speaker 2: First of all, you freaking scandal. But like if I did, 231 00:13:58,244 --> 00:14:00,684 Speaker 2: I wouldn't fucking email this fucking crazyh. 232 00:14:00,404 --> 00:14:04,444 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's it's actually it's quite crazy to 233 00:14:04,564 --> 00:14:10,084 Speaker 1: me how much is in email form and how many 234 00:14:10,564 --> 00:14:15,084 Speaker 1: ridiculously smart people put things into email that you're like, 235 00:14:15,364 --> 00:14:19,644 Speaker 1: are you fucking kidding me? Like we've obviously you know, 236 00:14:19,844 --> 00:14:23,404 Speaker 1: Trump has mentioned many times Larry Summers, former president of 237 00:14:23,444 --> 00:14:29,484 Speaker 1: Harvard University, current university professor. He has quite the correspondence 238 00:14:29,564 --> 00:14:32,644 Speaker 1: with Epstein. You just see, you know, you see all 239 00:14:32,684 --> 00:14:35,244 Speaker 1: of these people and you're like, guys, you know this 240 00:14:35,324 --> 00:14:39,244 Speaker 1: is email. This ain't even you know, you're emailing Gmail 241 00:14:39,284 --> 00:14:42,564 Speaker 1: account to Gmail account, Like I don't need to be 242 00:14:42,684 --> 00:14:45,604 Speaker 1: a great hacker to be able to hack this. And 243 00:14:45,604 --> 00:14:49,004 Speaker 1: and Nate, how many huge leaks and data breaches have 244 00:14:49,084 --> 00:14:52,084 Speaker 1: we had over the last decade, you know, the Sony emails, 245 00:14:52,124 --> 00:14:55,084 Speaker 1: all of these things. Haven't you seen enough to realize 246 00:14:55,164 --> 00:14:58,244 Speaker 1: that everything you put in an email is going to 247 00:14:58,284 --> 00:15:00,724 Speaker 1: be easy to see? Anyway? This isn't aside, but the 248 00:15:01,044 --> 00:15:03,804 Speaker 1: stuff in these emails, it really is truly mind boggling. 249 00:15:03,844 --> 00:15:06,044 Speaker 1: And obviously there are tons of thousands of them. We've 250 00:15:06,084 --> 00:15:09,444 Speaker 1: only seen the tip of the iceberg. But I I 251 00:15:09,484 --> 00:15:13,524 Speaker 1: want to go back just a second to what you 252 00:15:13,564 --> 00:15:16,484 Speaker 1: were saying about Trump's specific language about you know, House, 253 00:15:16,604 --> 00:15:19,084 Speaker 1: go ahead, you know, I want you to release this, 254 00:15:19,484 --> 00:15:22,204 Speaker 1: which is a huge about face. You know, this U 255 00:15:22,244 --> 00:15:25,164 Speaker 1: turn that he pulled to try, I think, as you say, 256 00:15:25,204 --> 00:15:28,124 Speaker 1: to save face, because it was very clear that this 257 00:15:28,284 --> 00:15:30,644 Speaker 1: was going to happen no matter what. Now it looks 258 00:15:30,684 --> 00:15:32,604 Speaker 1: like he's saying, oh, well, I have nothing to hide 259 00:15:32,884 --> 00:15:35,684 Speaker 1: right going on the offense, but we still need the 260 00:15:35,724 --> 00:15:39,124 Speaker 1: Senate unclear if it's going to pass the Senate, and 261 00:15:39,404 --> 00:15:43,524 Speaker 1: on Friday he also issued a command to his favorite 262 00:15:43,564 --> 00:15:49,604 Speaker 1: Pam Bondi to start investigating some of the Democrats that 263 00:15:49,764 --> 00:15:54,724 Speaker 1: are in the emails, such as Clinton and Summers. What 264 00:15:54,764 --> 00:15:58,884 Speaker 1: that means is that he actually has another lever through 265 00:15:58,924 --> 00:16:03,524 Speaker 1: which he can suppress some of these files even if 266 00:16:03,764 --> 00:16:07,444 Speaker 1: the measure passes both the House and the Senate, because 267 00:16:07,484 --> 00:16:11,324 Speaker 1: if they're part of an active investigation, you can say, oh, 268 00:16:11,684 --> 00:16:14,484 Speaker 1: you know, for the integrity of the investigation, we can't 269 00:16:14,524 --> 00:16:18,964 Speaker 1: actually release them. So he has a few different points 270 00:16:19,004 --> 00:16:22,284 Speaker 1: that he could play going forward where we might not. 271 00:16:22,444 --> 00:16:25,324 Speaker 1: You know, people might think, oh, slam dunk, like he's done, 272 00:16:25,324 --> 00:16:28,204 Speaker 1: he's in a quarter. Not so right. There are lots 273 00:16:28,204 --> 00:16:31,004 Speaker 1: of strategic exits that are still left and lots of 274 00:16:31,004 --> 00:16:32,084 Speaker 1: plays still remaining. 275 00:16:33,804 --> 00:16:36,044 Speaker 2: The lopside being, you have subpoena power, you have Freedom 276 00:16:36,044 --> 00:16:41,844 Speaker 2: of Information Act, you have leaks to the media, you know, 277 00:16:41,884 --> 00:16:43,844 Speaker 2: and you have a lot of members of congressman various 278 00:16:43,844 --> 00:16:46,124 Speaker 2: committees who have access to some of these things, and 279 00:16:46,164 --> 00:16:53,764 Speaker 2: so you know, you can do also reporting by organizations 280 00:16:53,804 --> 00:16:56,684 Speaker 2: and organizations. It's not what the federal government is doing. 281 00:16:57,044 --> 00:16:59,404 Speaker 2: If that information is out there, there's a good chance 282 00:16:59,404 --> 00:17:04,164 Speaker 2: it will be discovered eventually. You can make it to 283 00:17:04,204 --> 00:17:05,244 Speaker 2: silver bulletin. 284 00:17:04,924 --> 00:17:05,444 Speaker 1: If you want. 285 00:17:06,684 --> 00:17:11,244 Speaker 2: I have to check our viability insurance situation. Probably would 286 00:17:11,244 --> 00:17:14,604 Speaker 2: get sued. It might be good for subscriptions at first, right, 287 00:17:14,684 --> 00:17:17,764 Speaker 2: I am I even sued by the president subscribed to 288 00:17:17,804 --> 00:17:20,124 Speaker 2: silver Bulletin. No, I would say that it would be 289 00:17:20,204 --> 00:17:22,124 Speaker 2: much more eloquent. Why want to making that baby voice? 290 00:17:22,164 --> 00:17:23,764 Speaker 2: That would be a good fucking That would be a 291 00:17:23,804 --> 00:17:24,924 Speaker 2: good reason to subscribe. 292 00:17:25,524 --> 00:17:26,964 Speaker 1: You need a different voice for that night. 293 00:17:28,284 --> 00:17:30,764 Speaker 2: I've been sued. I am an impartial journalist. I've been 294 00:17:30,804 --> 00:17:32,604 Speaker 2: sued by. 295 00:17:32,004 --> 00:17:33,244 Speaker 1: Yes, the BBC voice. 296 00:17:33,284 --> 00:17:37,124 Speaker 2: That's perfect, okay, but there are ways for the information 297 00:17:37,164 --> 00:17:38,004 Speaker 2: to get out, right. 298 00:17:38,084 --> 00:17:41,164 Speaker 1: I mean, look, yep, absolutely. 299 00:17:40,604 --> 00:17:44,524 Speaker 2: The initial news in July that Trump had been named 300 00:17:44,604 --> 00:17:48,324 Speaker 2: in the Epstein piles didn't actually seem to move the 301 00:17:48,364 --> 00:17:50,644 Speaker 2: needle all that much. Right, There was a little bit 302 00:17:50,644 --> 00:17:53,244 Speaker 2: of a tickdown and the popularity the tickdown seemed to 303 00:17:53,284 --> 00:17:57,524 Speaker 2: be more about the obstruction than anything. Right. When Pam 304 00:17:57,564 --> 00:18:02,284 Speaker 2: Bondi said, oh, well, wea it and it turns out 305 00:18:02,564 --> 00:18:05,204 Speaker 2: nothing funny going on there, you know, let's not let's 306 00:18:05,244 --> 00:18:07,644 Speaker 2: not let's not keep litigating this. Let's move on to 307 00:18:07,684 --> 00:18:14,084 Speaker 2: the things it really matter to the American peace and nobody, nobody, nobody, but. 308 00:18:15,844 --> 00:18:23,524 Speaker 1: I'm sorry your pambody voices stylistic yes, but absolutely. 309 00:18:23,324 --> 00:18:26,124 Speaker 2: But like nobody somebody bought Nobody bought that right, nobody. 310 00:18:26,404 --> 00:18:28,564 Speaker 1: No. And by the way, Pam Bondi is now obviously 311 00:18:28,764 --> 00:18:31,244 Speaker 1: doing it about face because before she said absolutely nothing 312 00:18:31,284 --> 00:18:34,404 Speaker 1: to investigate, and then on Friday she opened investigations, so 313 00:18:35,804 --> 00:18:39,084 Speaker 1: clearly one of the two Pam Bondis was lying. 314 00:18:39,284 --> 00:18:44,564 Speaker 2: So to me, the question is, are we passed not 315 00:18:44,604 --> 00:18:49,804 Speaker 2: necessarily some type of inflection point, but like, is Trump 316 00:18:49,924 --> 00:18:54,444 Speaker 2: in some sort of a lame duck downward spiral? Which 317 00:18:54,444 --> 00:18:56,964 Speaker 2: you're not quite the same thing right. By lame duck, 318 00:18:57,004 --> 00:19:00,284 Speaker 2: I mean so Trump technically is a lame duck unless 319 00:19:00,284 --> 00:19:03,604 Speaker 2: he figures out a way to run for a third term. 320 00:19:03,644 --> 00:19:06,404 Speaker 2: I don't know, I know we should dignify that or not, 321 00:19:06,564 --> 00:19:10,364 Speaker 2: but like putting that aside for now, he has a 322 00:19:10,444 --> 00:19:11,884 Speaker 2: lame duck in the sense that he can't run for 323 00:19:11,884 --> 00:19:14,004 Speaker 2: president again. But by lame duck, I really mean like, 324 00:19:15,084 --> 00:19:20,244 Speaker 2: does he lack the political capital to have the agenda 325 00:19:20,284 --> 00:19:24,884 Speaker 2: setting power, the juice to get things done. In addition 326 00:19:25,004 --> 00:19:29,484 Speaker 2: to this Epstein stuff, there are now more Republicans ignoring 327 00:19:29,564 --> 00:19:33,084 Speaker 2: him on redistricting. Indiana, where there are two Democrats, seems 328 00:19:33,124 --> 00:19:35,644 Speaker 2: not to want to redistrict. I think some of these 329 00:19:35,644 --> 00:19:39,764 Speaker 2: Republicans have been spooked by Democratic success in New Jersey, 330 00:19:40,284 --> 00:19:43,404 Speaker 2: Virginia and so forth. You know, you can have districts 331 00:19:43,404 --> 00:19:48,364 Speaker 2: that are R plus ten, meaning up by ten points. 332 00:19:48,484 --> 00:19:52,004 Speaker 2: Those aren't necessarily safe in a blue wave year, and 333 00:19:52,084 --> 00:19:54,924 Speaker 2: so they might be worried about that. They might thinking, okay, well, 334 00:19:54,964 --> 00:19:57,284 Speaker 2: actually Democrats have shown in California that we can have 335 00:19:57,324 --> 00:20:00,524 Speaker 2: this kind of mutually assured destruction where nobody wins, right, 336 00:20:00,564 --> 00:20:08,004 Speaker 2: and so the game theory is interesting and will be 337 00:20:08,084 --> 00:20:21,004 Speaker 2: right back after this break. If you look at the 338 00:20:21,124 --> 00:20:25,164 Speaker 2: ratings for approval ratings for presence and their second term, 339 00:20:25,404 --> 00:20:30,964 Speaker 2: they're much less resilient. And there are cases like Bush 340 00:20:31,164 --> 00:20:37,604 Speaker 2: in particular, where it was just a downward trend. You know, 341 00:20:37,724 --> 00:20:42,804 Speaker 2: Nixon also because of Watergate, where it deteriorated very fast. 342 00:20:42,924 --> 00:20:47,644 Speaker 2: You know, Truman surprised people by defeating Dewey despite headlines 343 00:20:47,684 --> 00:20:50,124 Speaker 2: of the nineteen forty eight election, was very unpopular in 344 00:20:50,164 --> 00:20:52,924 Speaker 2: his second term, kind of a straight downward arrow, and 345 00:20:52,964 --> 00:20:57,804 Speaker 2: so like once you kind of you know, you don't 346 00:20:57,844 --> 00:20:59,924 Speaker 2: necessarily have your party coming to your defense if you 347 00:20:59,924 --> 00:21:02,484 Speaker 2: don't have to run for election again. In fact, you 348 00:21:02,524 --> 00:21:05,364 Speaker 2: have Republicans maybe positioning themselves for what does life look 349 00:21:05,484 --> 00:21:10,324 Speaker 2: like posts Trump? Right, We've written or talked a lot 350 00:21:10,324 --> 00:21:11,924 Speaker 2: in the show about how Democrats are still a mess. 351 00:21:11,924 --> 00:21:17,204 Speaker 2: It's certainly a very valuable nomination to have in twenty eight, right, 352 00:21:18,404 --> 00:21:21,844 Speaker 2: assuming there's not a constitutional crisis, then they have to 353 00:21:21,884 --> 00:21:27,484 Speaker 2: nominate somebody else, and the jockeying for that starts now. 354 00:21:27,724 --> 00:21:29,684 Speaker 2: It's definitely occurring among Democrats already. 355 00:21:29,804 --> 00:21:30,044 Speaker 1: And so. 356 00:21:31,524 --> 00:21:35,604 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the base case is always that you know, 357 00:21:35,644 --> 00:21:38,724 Speaker 2: Trump is a high floor, low ceiling, high floor, but 358 00:21:38,844 --> 00:21:41,044 Speaker 2: you never know, there's enough history of second term presidents 359 00:21:41,844 --> 00:21:44,444 Speaker 2: actually going to this downward spiral where first term presidents 360 00:21:44,484 --> 00:21:48,524 Speaker 2: tend to have this U shape or swoosh Nike shape recovery. 361 00:21:48,724 --> 00:21:51,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll be very curious to see how this plays out. 362 00:21:51,964 --> 00:21:54,004 Speaker 1: And I think a lot of it is going to 363 00:21:54,044 --> 00:21:57,244 Speaker 1: depend not on the Epstein files, but on economic indicators, 364 00:21:57,324 --> 00:22:01,284 Speaker 1: right on what is happening with the economy, what's happening 365 00:22:01,284 --> 00:22:05,924 Speaker 1: with inflation. Basically, how is the American public feeling and 366 00:22:06,884 --> 00:22:09,244 Speaker 1: are they what's going to happen with snap benefits, you know, 367 00:22:09,524 --> 00:22:13,084 Speaker 1: Trump asking everyone to reapply for snap benefits with all 368 00:22:13,444 --> 00:22:17,164 Speaker 1: of these different elements. You know, this is a puzzle 369 00:22:17,404 --> 00:22:20,204 Speaker 1: right now. That is you know, Trump has a lot 370 00:22:20,244 --> 00:22:23,124 Speaker 1: of different things that he has to manage correctly in 371 00:22:23,244 --> 00:22:26,724 Speaker 1: order for there not to be a downward spiral. And 372 00:22:26,804 --> 00:22:29,764 Speaker 1: we've talked before many many times on the show, how 373 00:22:29,924 --> 00:22:32,684 Speaker 1: you know, nothing seems to matter right like he happens. 374 00:22:33,284 --> 00:22:36,484 Speaker 1: It seems like he can rebound from anything negative. This 375 00:22:36,564 --> 00:22:41,004 Speaker 1: is the first time night that we're actually seeing in 376 00:22:41,244 --> 00:22:43,884 Speaker 1: since he became president in term number two. This is 377 00:22:43,924 --> 00:22:47,004 Speaker 1: the first time I think that we've seen cracks in 378 00:22:47,364 --> 00:22:52,564 Speaker 1: you know, this monolithic Republican support for Trump in the 379 00:22:52,604 --> 00:22:56,524 Speaker 1: House right before, like basically whatever he wanted, they were 380 00:22:56,604 --> 00:23:02,364 Speaker 1: rubber stamping, they were getting. They were basically even not 381 00:23:02,844 --> 00:23:04,924 Speaker 1: doing what they were supposed to be doing, right. They 382 00:23:04,964 --> 00:23:08,164 Speaker 1: were abdicating their powers of the purse. They were letting 383 00:23:08,364 --> 00:23:12,044 Speaker 1: kind if Trump pass legislation. I realized that Trump isn't 384 00:23:12,044 --> 00:23:14,724 Speaker 1: passing legislation, that's what Congress does, but they were really 385 00:23:14,804 --> 00:23:18,484 Speaker 1: letting that Trump pass this legislation, tariffs, all of these 386 00:23:18,484 --> 00:23:24,204 Speaker 1: different things, and they are finally starting to kind of 387 00:23:24,364 --> 00:23:26,364 Speaker 1: crack a little bit, at least that's what it looks 388 00:23:26,444 --> 00:23:28,724 Speaker 1: like right now. It's certainly I mean, it happened with 389 00:23:28,764 --> 00:23:31,484 Speaker 1: the two hundred and eighteen signatures, right, you actually did 390 00:23:31,524 --> 00:23:35,724 Speaker 1: have the breaking of ranks, So I would really you know, 391 00:23:35,884 --> 00:23:38,644 Speaker 1: I'm very curious to see how this ends up playing 392 00:23:38,644 --> 00:23:41,564 Speaker 1: out and what happens in the Senate. Right Is the 393 00:23:41,564 --> 00:23:44,364 Speaker 1: Senate going to fracture as well after in the wake 394 00:23:44,404 --> 00:23:48,444 Speaker 1: of what happened in the House. Is Trump going to 395 00:23:49,364 --> 00:23:51,324 Speaker 1: is the fact that he said, oh fine, go ahead, 396 00:23:51,364 --> 00:23:53,444 Speaker 1: you know, vote for this thing. We have nothing to hide. 397 00:23:53,644 --> 00:23:57,484 Speaker 1: Is that actually going to propel this through the Senate 398 00:23:57,524 --> 00:24:00,564 Speaker 1: as well? Is he going to backtrack yet again? How 399 00:24:00,604 --> 00:24:02,524 Speaker 1: is this going to play out? And what does that 400 00:24:02,644 --> 00:24:07,084 Speaker 1: mean for his ability to pass everything he wants to 401 00:24:07,124 --> 00:24:11,084 Speaker 1: pass in the next two years to actually have that 402 00:24:11,124 --> 00:24:14,284 Speaker 1: monolithic support. Is he still going to have it moving 403 00:24:14,324 --> 00:24:17,044 Speaker 1: forward or not? Obviously you know, a betting person would 404 00:24:17,084 --> 00:24:20,724 Speaker 1: say he probably will because he's always managed to regain it. 405 00:24:20,844 --> 00:24:23,684 Speaker 1: But I think that it's a question mark for me 406 00:24:23,804 --> 00:24:24,564 Speaker 1: for the first time. 407 00:24:25,004 --> 00:24:27,844 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I don't know that Trump has that much 408 00:24:27,924 --> 00:24:31,884 Speaker 2: more of a legislative agenda, really apart from like appropriations bills, which, 409 00:24:31,964 --> 00:24:35,644 Speaker 2: as always for Republicans will try to to lower taxes 410 00:24:35,644 --> 00:24:40,084 Speaker 2: for rich people in corporations and star of the welfare 411 00:24:40,084 --> 00:24:45,324 Speaker 2: state a little bit. But I mean, yeah, look so 412 00:24:45,484 --> 00:24:47,804 Speaker 2: you have you know, it would be subject to a 413 00:24:47,804 --> 00:24:50,644 Speaker 2: filibuster in Congress. It seems like a kind of a 414 00:24:50,684 --> 00:24:54,924 Speaker 2: bad look to if the House votes overwhelmingly for I mean, 415 00:24:54,964 --> 00:24:56,524 Speaker 2: I guess you're kind of hoping that, like if you 416 00:24:56,564 --> 00:25:00,524 Speaker 2: go to Polymarket, which I consult for, then there's only 417 00:25:00,564 --> 00:25:05,004 Speaker 2: like a forty percent chance implied that the Senate passes 418 00:25:05,044 --> 00:25:08,764 Speaker 2: the bill by the end of the year. Now, we 419 00:25:08,764 --> 00:25:11,284 Speaker 2: don't have that many left, and things in the Senate 420 00:25:11,284 --> 00:25:13,484 Speaker 2: are slow, right, so they might kind of slow walk 421 00:25:13,524 --> 00:25:16,164 Speaker 2: it and hope that people forget about it, you know. 422 00:25:16,244 --> 00:25:20,844 Speaker 2: I mean, the fact is that there are entire you know, 423 00:25:21,004 --> 00:25:26,244 Speaker 2: like MSNBC has not been rebranded to MS now, which 424 00:25:26,284 --> 00:25:29,364 Speaker 2: sounds like a multiple sclerosis charity. 425 00:25:30,684 --> 00:25:32,484 Speaker 1: It's not it really does it. 426 00:25:32,964 --> 00:25:35,444 Speaker 2: It's a cable news ess awful, what is it? 427 00:25:35,524 --> 00:25:37,924 Speaker 1: Sorry this is neither here nor there, But what is 428 00:25:37,924 --> 00:25:41,364 Speaker 1: it with all these horrific media rebrands? 429 00:25:41,924 --> 00:25:45,044 Speaker 2: It was like MS like the partnership with M Microsoft 430 00:25:45,124 --> 00:25:50,004 Speaker 2: Network lasted ended what like fifteen years ago or something, right, 431 00:25:50,084 --> 00:25:53,324 Speaker 2: it is that you know the news screaming MSNBC is 432 00:25:53,364 --> 00:25:56,044 Speaker 2: teaming with NBC News. It's like doesn't really or MS 433 00:25:56,204 --> 00:25:58,324 Speaker 2: it doesn't really make sense, right, but like it made 434 00:25:58,324 --> 00:26:00,524 Speaker 2: sense in the early aughts, I guess, and the name 435 00:26:00,564 --> 00:26:04,524 Speaker 2: has stuck. But like you know, basically they're just gonna 436 00:26:04,524 --> 00:26:08,564 Speaker 2: be talking epsteptepstn on MSMB MS. Now it's a new 437 00:26:08,684 --> 00:26:11,684 Speaker 2: kind of Russia gay. So if you're hoping people forget 438 00:26:11,684 --> 00:26:14,124 Speaker 2: about it, then then they won't, right. But like, look, 439 00:26:14,124 --> 00:26:16,684 Speaker 2: maybe Trump figures that. Like what's the scene from a 440 00:26:16,724 --> 00:26:18,764 Speaker 2: Christmas story where the kid gets a bb gun, like 441 00:26:18,804 --> 00:26:21,764 Speaker 2: don't don't shoot your eye out? Am I am? I 442 00:26:21,884 --> 00:26:23,604 Speaker 2: getting that right? I don't know if I've seen the 443 00:26:23,604 --> 00:26:25,244 Speaker 2: whole New Gay know that's scene. I'm sure I've seen 444 00:26:25,284 --> 00:26:26,084 Speaker 2: the movie. 445 00:26:26,204 --> 00:26:28,964 Speaker 1: He Got I don't remember it. I don't remember, but the. 446 00:26:29,004 --> 00:26:30,604 Speaker 2: Kid gets a bb gun and of course he like 447 00:26:31,284 --> 00:26:33,124 Speaker 2: shoots his I don't know what the fuck's going on, 448 00:26:33,204 --> 00:26:34,604 Speaker 2: but it's a little bit like, you know, you have 449 00:26:34,684 --> 00:26:37,924 Speaker 2: Democrats with this bb gun on Epstein and like they're 450 00:26:37,964 --> 00:26:43,244 Speaker 2: so giddy about the story, which, by the way, I 451 00:26:43,364 --> 00:26:46,644 Speaker 2: say open up fucking everything. Right. I don't like these 452 00:26:46,684 --> 00:26:50,124 Speaker 2: political elites. I think they're fucking weird. Social circles and 453 00:26:50,164 --> 00:26:52,764 Speaker 2: parties are fucking weird, right, Like, I hope as many 454 00:26:52,804 --> 00:26:55,524 Speaker 2: people as possible are tainted for this and we get 455 00:26:55,524 --> 00:26:58,284 Speaker 2: a better fucking set of elites to be perfectly honest, right, 456 00:26:58,884 --> 00:27:00,724 Speaker 2: you know, by the way, I you know, I think 457 00:27:00,764 --> 00:27:04,244 Speaker 2: that it's not irrational for someone to ask whether Jeffrey 458 00:27:04,284 --> 00:27:06,284 Speaker 2: Epstein really killed himselves, right, I don't care. I don't 459 00:27:06,284 --> 00:27:08,484 Speaker 2: think I think that should be That's a normal thing 460 00:27:08,484 --> 00:27:09,884 Speaker 2: to ask if you go and like look at like 461 00:27:10,364 --> 00:27:12,524 Speaker 2: what the fuck is going on with this? Right? How 462 00:27:12,604 --> 00:27:14,084 Speaker 2: is he doing all this stuff? And you know, I 463 00:27:14,124 --> 00:27:16,124 Speaker 2: think there are lots and lots of open questions. I 464 00:27:16,164 --> 00:27:18,564 Speaker 2: would love to see every single file on this released 465 00:27:18,804 --> 00:27:21,684 Speaker 2: to the public and debated. Right. At the same time, 466 00:27:22,204 --> 00:27:25,964 Speaker 2: when you have kind of the ms now partisan democrats, right, 467 00:27:26,004 --> 00:27:29,284 Speaker 2: there's a risk that instead of having this kind of 468 00:27:29,324 --> 00:27:33,164 Speaker 2: moment of cross partisan crossover, that it goes back to 469 00:27:33,284 --> 00:27:37,284 Speaker 2: kind of a he said, She said, people I think 470 00:27:37,364 --> 00:27:40,764 Speaker 2: already have kind of low expectations for Trump and so 471 00:27:41,804 --> 00:27:44,444 Speaker 2: and so. I don't know, right, you know, but it 472 00:27:44,484 --> 00:27:47,444 Speaker 2: would be an absolute like epsteina palooza for three months 473 00:27:47,444 --> 00:27:50,004 Speaker 2: if the file, if the files came out, which again, 474 00:27:50,164 --> 00:27:51,724 Speaker 2: if I were Democrats, I'd say, Okay, this is a 475 00:27:51,724 --> 00:27:54,004 Speaker 2: pretty good story for us, But there is an opportunity cost, right, 476 00:27:54,044 --> 00:27:55,684 Speaker 2: and the opportunity costs might be to drive home a 477 00:27:55,684 --> 00:27:57,764 Speaker 2: message about the economy. 478 00:27:57,924 --> 00:28:00,484 Speaker 1: That's actually what I was just about to say, like 479 00:28:00,724 --> 00:28:03,604 Speaker 1: in the grand scheme of things, like right now, you've 480 00:28:03,644 --> 00:28:08,404 Speaker 1: got the economy, right, You've got inflation, you've got snap 481 00:28:08,484 --> 00:28:11,404 Speaker 1: benefits being cut off, you've got the healthcare stuff, You've 482 00:28:11,404 --> 00:28:13,684 Speaker 1: got all this stuff going on. It seems like a 483 00:28:13,684 --> 00:28:18,444 Speaker 1: good moment to release. However, tens of thousands of emails 484 00:28:18,444 --> 00:28:22,004 Speaker 1: and whatever else, all of this just insane amount of 485 00:28:22,004 --> 00:28:27,284 Speaker 1: information and try to kind of bury bury it all, right, 486 00:28:27,844 --> 00:28:35,284 Speaker 1: And Trump is really really good at the politics of distraction, right, 487 00:28:35,564 --> 00:28:40,484 Speaker 1: He is very good at getting people to pay attention 488 00:28:40,924 --> 00:28:46,684 Speaker 1: to things that make them not deal with the issues 489 00:28:46,724 --> 00:28:49,124 Speaker 1: that are actually important at the moment. Like he is 490 00:28:49,244 --> 00:28:53,244 Speaker 1: so good at attention hijacking. And he's I mean to 491 00:28:53,324 --> 00:28:55,204 Speaker 1: be clear, with the Epstein files, he's been trying to 492 00:28:55,244 --> 00:28:58,124 Speaker 1: avoid this, right, because there is we already know that 493 00:28:58,164 --> 00:29:01,004 Speaker 1: he's in the files. We already know that there's damaging information. 494 00:29:01,444 --> 00:29:04,164 Speaker 1: The question is how damaging is it. But I think 495 00:29:04,204 --> 00:29:06,804 Speaker 1: he might be making a gamble now that like, if 496 00:29:06,804 --> 00:29:09,004 Speaker 1: they're going to come out, might as well like just 497 00:29:09,084 --> 00:29:12,284 Speaker 1: have this barrage and try to bury everything else, and 498 00:29:12,364 --> 00:29:16,804 Speaker 1: then you know, people will stop caring or stop paying 499 00:29:16,844 --> 00:29:19,684 Speaker 1: attention to the things that they really should be paying 500 00:29:19,684 --> 00:29:22,924 Speaker 1: attention to in terms of the welfare of the American people. 501 00:29:23,524 --> 00:29:29,564 Speaker 2: No, and look, there are sure to be other Democrats implicated. Yeah, absolutely, 502 00:29:29,564 --> 00:29:33,204 Speaker 2: and there are sure to be and you can, you can. 503 00:29:33,324 --> 00:29:35,764 Speaker 2: It's a little bit morbid. You can bet on like 504 00:29:35,764 --> 00:29:37,684 Speaker 2: who's going to be named the obscene files? And like 505 00:29:37,724 --> 00:29:38,924 Speaker 2: I'm not going to go for. 506 00:29:38,724 --> 00:29:41,724 Speaker 1: Sure, Yeah, for sure, and we get and you know, 507 00:29:41,844 --> 00:29:44,804 Speaker 1: I can. I'm willing to bet that we are going 508 00:29:44,844 --> 00:29:48,324 Speaker 1: to be seeing a lot of news headlines and we're 509 00:29:48,364 --> 00:29:51,524 Speaker 1: going to have a hijacking of the conversation about everything. 510 00:29:51,564 --> 00:29:56,604 Speaker 1: Every single Democrat right who's mentioned, however peripherally in the files. 511 00:29:56,644 --> 00:29:58,964 Speaker 1: So so I think that that will be another great 512 00:29:58,964 --> 00:30:03,724 Speaker 1: opportunity for attention redeployment. 513 00:30:03,364 --> 00:30:06,684 Speaker 2: Shall we say, to some extent in the notion that 514 00:30:06,724 --> 00:30:13,124 Speaker 2: you have like cabal, a bipartisan cabal of like rich 515 00:30:13,204 --> 00:30:17,084 Speaker 2: elites who are behaving very very badly and think that 516 00:30:17,164 --> 00:30:20,324 Speaker 2: money can buy you anything you want, including access to 517 00:30:21,444 --> 00:30:26,964 Speaker 2: underaged women, right children if they're underage, ate their children, 518 00:30:29,204 --> 00:30:31,444 Speaker 2: Like you know, in some sense, that kind of is 519 00:30:31,484 --> 00:30:37,404 Speaker 2: part of what like sparks populist narratives right now, if 520 00:30:37,444 --> 00:30:41,564 Speaker 2: Trump is caught up in this, then he is hardly 521 00:30:41,604 --> 00:30:44,884 Speaker 2: a populist savior obviously. At the same at the same time, like, 522 00:30:48,724 --> 00:30:52,084 Speaker 2: you know, look, there's been people recently who so Trump 523 00:30:52,124 --> 00:30:57,844 Speaker 2: has pardoned a bunch of like January sixth writers, protesters, 524 00:30:57,924 --> 00:31:00,324 Speaker 2: whatever you want to call them, right, people, people that 525 00:31:00,364 --> 00:31:05,244 Speaker 2: were convicted of crimes, and that's some article. It's like, well, 526 00:31:05,484 --> 00:31:11,284 Speaker 2: people who criticized Joe Biden or pardoning Hunter Biden. You know, 527 00:31:11,324 --> 00:31:12,764 Speaker 2: this is so much a bigger deal. And I'm like, no, 528 00:31:12,844 --> 00:31:15,564 Speaker 2: fuck you, right, because like Democrats are running on the 529 00:31:15,644 --> 00:31:18,044 Speaker 2: we are the party of the rule of law and 530 00:31:18,364 --> 00:31:22,604 Speaker 2: democracy and the moral high ground, right and Trump is 531 00:31:22,684 --> 00:31:26,684 Speaker 2: running on everyone's a fucking hypocrite. So do you want Yeah, maybe, 532 00:31:26,724 --> 00:31:29,484 Speaker 2: I like maybe I like younger women. I don't drank, 533 00:31:29,524 --> 00:31:31,564 Speaker 2: I don't smoke, right, I like to hang out. We 534 00:31:31,564 --> 00:31:33,644 Speaker 2: talk about women, you know, I mean, like that's kind 535 00:31:33,644 --> 00:31:37,564 Speaker 2: of you know, Trump is reveling in his hypocrisy in 536 00:31:37,604 --> 00:31:41,204 Speaker 2: a way, kind of his like degenerously almost. I guess 537 00:31:41,204 --> 00:31:43,284 Speaker 2: it isn't like smoke or drink or things like that, right, 538 00:31:43,324 --> 00:31:46,924 Speaker 2: but he's kind of like a proud degen in a way. 539 00:31:47,124 --> 00:31:50,044 Speaker 2: And that's different. They're not trying to like claim it's like, yeah, 540 00:31:50,084 --> 00:31:51,804 Speaker 2: everyone's a hypocrite, So we got to look out for 541 00:31:51,844 --> 00:31:55,924 Speaker 2: our own, right, And so when things happen that discredit 542 00:31:56,404 --> 00:31:59,804 Speaker 2: quote unquote both sides of the establishment, that plays into 543 00:31:59,844 --> 00:32:04,564 Speaker 2: cynicism of political institutions, and that plays into the hands 544 00:32:04,604 --> 00:32:07,204 Speaker 2: of populace, including what outlimited to Trump. 545 00:32:11,644 --> 00:32:25,164 Speaker 1: We'll be back right after this. I'm just curious kind 546 00:32:25,164 --> 00:32:27,684 Speaker 1: of what is the line, right, like what because it 547 00:32:27,684 --> 00:32:31,724 Speaker 1: seems to me that you know that Trump is able 548 00:32:31,804 --> 00:32:37,404 Speaker 1: to withstand most accusations better than most people, right, So 549 00:32:37,564 --> 00:32:40,084 Speaker 1: if we have the Epstein files released and there's bad 550 00:32:40,084 --> 00:32:42,564 Speaker 1: stuff on Trump but also bad stuff on you know, 551 00:32:42,564 --> 00:32:45,484 Speaker 1: a bunch of Democrats, he might be able to kind 552 00:32:45,484 --> 00:32:49,804 Speaker 1: of waltz through it if there's you know, nothing like 553 00:32:50,404 --> 00:32:54,244 Speaker 1: nothing ridiculous, But they won't, right, So, so it's one 554 00:32:54,244 --> 00:32:56,964 Speaker 1: of these things where it may be asymmetric risks. 555 00:32:57,204 --> 00:32:59,084 Speaker 2: No, I think it yeah, you know, I don't know, 556 00:32:59,364 --> 00:33:02,364 Speaker 2: you know, you know, listeners, you'll be hearing whichever version 557 00:33:02,364 --> 00:33:05,524 Speaker 2: of this that Christian lawyers have lit again because their 558 00:33:05,524 --> 00:33:08,204 Speaker 2: president is right. But like, you know, look, I agree 559 00:33:08,244 --> 00:33:13,564 Speaker 2: that like it. It's a little binary in terms of like, look, 560 00:33:13,844 --> 00:33:16,644 Speaker 2: he's not been afraid. I mean, he talks about walking 561 00:33:16,684 --> 00:33:22,204 Speaker 2: into in the locker room and miss America patchets, right, 562 00:33:22,204 --> 00:33:26,204 Speaker 2: It's always kind of been like a a running stick 563 00:33:26,324 --> 00:33:29,284 Speaker 2: or joke that yeah, he likes it, likes women, right, 564 00:33:29,324 --> 00:33:31,524 Speaker 2: maybe he likes women that are a little bit younger, 565 00:33:31,524 --> 00:33:34,964 Speaker 2: and it's kind of like priced in, right, So I 566 00:33:34,964 --> 00:33:40,724 Speaker 2: think it would have to be like pretty definitive, pretty 567 00:33:40,764 --> 00:33:46,764 Speaker 2: salacious evidence, which is possible. But I think it's like, yeah, 568 00:33:46,804 --> 00:33:49,604 Speaker 2: to me, it's a little bifurcated between like either really 569 00:33:49,604 --> 00:33:54,404 Speaker 2: bad or gets swept up rushed aside into the previous narrative, right, 570 00:33:54,404 --> 00:33:58,564 Speaker 2: And there probably are some probably just some leetl ground yeah, 571 00:33:58,804 --> 00:34:01,484 Speaker 2: but yeah. 572 00:34:00,404 --> 00:34:04,044 Speaker 1: Yeah, well it'll be it'll be very interesting to see 573 00:34:04,164 --> 00:34:07,764 Speaker 1: how this process moves forward, what happens in the Senate, 574 00:34:07,884 --> 00:34:12,084 Speaker 1: and whether we do end up seeing a sustained fracturing 575 00:34:12,764 --> 00:34:16,884 Speaker 1: of the base where Congress becomes a little bit less 576 00:34:16,924 --> 00:34:20,924 Speaker 1: of a rubber state, rubber stamp mechanism for the state. 577 00:34:22,404 --> 00:34:25,764 Speaker 1: So or whether this is a one off and it 578 00:34:25,804 --> 00:34:29,244 Speaker 1: will just go back to kind of to see to 579 00:34:29,364 --> 00:34:32,484 Speaker 1: doing exactly what Trump says. And I think that the 580 00:34:32,524 --> 00:34:36,324 Speaker 1: repercussions of that are actually potentially much wider because, as 581 00:34:36,404 --> 00:34:38,924 Speaker 1: you've pointed out, Nan, and as we've talked about, a 582 00:34:38,964 --> 00:34:42,484 Speaker 1: lot of Trump's agenda has been accomplished through executive order, 583 00:34:42,764 --> 00:34:45,644 Speaker 1: right through kind of just saying Okay, this is what 584 00:34:45,684 --> 00:34:48,644 Speaker 1: I'm going to be doing, and a lot of those 585 00:34:48,684 --> 00:34:51,244 Speaker 1: are now making their way to the Supreme Court right 586 00:34:52,044 --> 00:34:53,844 Speaker 1: in front of the Supreme Court, will be in front 587 00:34:53,844 --> 00:34:57,244 Speaker 1: of the Supreme Court soon. And the Supreme Court has 588 00:34:57,364 --> 00:35:00,604 Speaker 1: also shown itself to be very pro Trump. But if 589 00:35:00,644 --> 00:35:04,324 Speaker 1: there's a sustained fracturing of kind of the Republican support 590 00:35:04,324 --> 00:35:08,044 Speaker 1: base in Congress, I'm wondering whether we might actually see 591 00:35:08,044 --> 00:35:10,804 Speaker 1: the Supreme Court also be come a little bit less 592 00:35:10,884 --> 00:35:14,004 Speaker 1: rubber stampy and a little bit more willing to strike 593 00:35:14,044 --> 00:35:14,444 Speaker 1: down things. 594 00:35:14,764 --> 00:35:17,084 Speaker 2: Sure, I don't know if you're don't, but like for sure, 595 00:35:17,204 --> 00:35:21,804 Speaker 2: the Supreme Court is sensitive to public yeah, right, And 596 00:35:21,884 --> 00:35:24,324 Speaker 2: sometimes we'll kind of be honest about that, sometimes less so. 597 00:35:24,484 --> 00:35:29,004 Speaker 2: But like they they are a a political. 598 00:35:28,644 --> 00:35:32,164 Speaker 1: Assay're not supposed to be, but they are. 599 00:35:32,404 --> 00:35:33,524 Speaker 2: Do you have closing thoughts here? 600 00:35:35,324 --> 00:35:39,004 Speaker 1: My closing thoughts are I am you know whatever is 601 00:35:39,044 --> 00:35:41,124 Speaker 1: behind the pivot. I do hope that all of the 602 00:35:41,204 --> 00:35:46,364 Speaker 1: Epstein files are released, and I do hope that they 603 00:35:46,404 --> 00:35:50,084 Speaker 1: are released in a way that actually has a lasting 604 00:35:50,124 --> 00:35:53,524 Speaker 1: effect and helps clean up the elites on both sides 605 00:35:53,524 --> 00:35:56,444 Speaker 1: of the aisle. You know, let's let's be very clear, 606 00:35:56,644 --> 00:36:00,404 Speaker 1: no one should be what what was happening on Jeffrey 607 00:36:00,404 --> 00:36:03,564 Speaker 1: Epstein's island and his mansion. All of these things are 608 00:36:03,564 --> 00:36:07,084 Speaker 1: completely unacceptable and people should be held to account. So 609 00:36:07,124 --> 00:36:09,244 Speaker 1: I hope that we're actually able to see this and 610 00:36:10,044 --> 00:36:11,884 Speaker 1: very curious to see what's going to happen in the 611 00:36:11,884 --> 00:36:16,644 Speaker 1: Senate and whether the American public and Congress is able 612 00:36:16,684 --> 00:36:19,884 Speaker 1: to maintain their focus and their attention on more than 613 00:36:19,884 --> 00:36:22,844 Speaker 1: one thing at a time and keep the kind of 614 00:36:22,884 --> 00:36:24,884 Speaker 1: eye on the prize when it comes to the health 615 00:36:24,884 --> 00:36:29,164 Speaker 1: of the economy, the health of snap benefits, healthcare, all 616 00:36:29,204 --> 00:36:32,324 Speaker 1: of these things, like let's let's multitask people, we can 617 00:36:32,364 --> 00:36:33,684 Speaker 1: do this two things. 618 00:36:33,524 --> 00:36:36,204 Speaker 2: That was what was the island called. 619 00:36:37,484 --> 00:36:38,604 Speaker 1: Little Saint James to day? 620 00:36:39,324 --> 00:36:41,324 Speaker 2: Are you thinking of like the island in Jurassic Park, 621 00:36:41,364 --> 00:36:43,604 Speaker 2: like East Lend, New Blar or whatever it is? Right? 622 00:36:43,924 --> 00:36:49,004 Speaker 2: But why not Jurassic Park eight Epstein Island Island. Why 623 00:36:49,044 --> 00:36:51,244 Speaker 2: not let the dinosaurs be the good guys for ones? Right? 624 00:36:51,804 --> 00:36:56,964 Speaker 2: They eat all these child pedophile rapists? Like that would 625 00:36:57,044 --> 00:37:01,724 Speaker 2: be good, right? Wouldn't it a legend a legend child molesters? 626 00:37:02,844 --> 00:37:11,764 Speaker 1: Yes, yes, but I'll watch that Jurassic Park. Let us 627 00:37:11,764 --> 00:37:13,524 Speaker 1: know what you think of the show. Reach out to 628 00:37:13,604 --> 00:37:18,444 Speaker 1: us at Risky Business at Pushkin dot FM. Risky Business 629 00:37:18,484 --> 00:37:20,804 Speaker 1: is hosted by me Maria Kanakova. 630 00:37:20,524 --> 00:37:23,244 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool 631 00:37:23,284 --> 00:37:27,244 Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 632 00:37:27,284 --> 00:37:31,604 Speaker 2: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia, 633 00:37:31,724 --> 00:37:34,604 Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our 634 00:37:34,644 --> 00:37:38,404 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 635 00:37:39,084 --> 00:37:41,324 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 636 00:37:41,324 --> 00:37:44,044 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again, 637 00:37:44,124 --> 00:37:45,924 Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad 638 00:37:45,964 --> 00:37:48,164 Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in