WEBVTT - Blinken’s China Trip; Powell's Congress Testimony

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<v Speaker 1>From the Bloomberg Interactive Burgers Studios. This is Bloomberg day

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<v Speaker 1>Break for Tuesday, June twentieth.

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<v Speaker 2>Coming up today, Secretary of State Anthony B. Lincoln comes

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<v Speaker 2>away from China with a promise to keep Talking Wall straight.

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<v Speaker 1>Awaits key congressional testimony from FED chair J.

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<v Speaker 3>Powell.

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<v Speaker 2>A surprise management shake up at Ali Baba.

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<v Speaker 1>And UBS Space is more fines tied to its takeover

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<v Speaker 1>of Credit Suite.

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<v Speaker 4>Search continues for tourists sub at in keep the Titanic

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<v Speaker 4>recorge site, plus of violence and deadly weather. Weekend in

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<v Speaker 4>the South. I'm Michael Barr. More ahead, I'm.

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<v Speaker 5>John Stasharan Sports and eleven to one rump for the

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<v Speaker 5>Mets in Houston, the slumping Yankees home tonight to play Seattle.

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<v Speaker 6>That's all straight Ahead on Bloomberg day Break, the business

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<v Speaker 6>news you need to starn your day in just one

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<v Speaker 6>fifteen minute podcast each morning on Apples, Spotify, the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 6>Business app and everywhere you get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan.

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<v Speaker 1>Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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<v Speaker 1>following today.

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<v Speaker 2>We begin with apparent improvement in relations between the US

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<v Speaker 2>and China. Secretary of State Anthony blinkn has wrapped up

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<v Speaker 2>his trip to Beijing in both sides or saying the

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<v Speaker 2>talks were successful, but it's Bloomberg said, Baxter reports major

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<v Speaker 2>differences still remain.

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<v Speaker 7>The dialogue went well enough that Blincoln did meet with

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<v Speaker 7>President Shi Jimping, so communication lanes are more open, but

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<v Speaker 7>there remain differences and friction. Blincoln saying, evening the economic

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<v Speaker 7>playing field.

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<v Speaker 2>Defending against harmful trade practices, and protecting our critical technologies

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<v Speaker 2>so that they aren't used against US.

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<v Speaker 7>And she through a translator, putting the onus on the

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<v Speaker 7>US to improve things.

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<v Speaker 2>I hope that through this visit, mister Secretary, you will

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<v Speaker 2>make more positive contributions to stabilizing China US relations.

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<v Speaker 7>She admonished Blnkin not to interfere with China's internal affairs.

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<v Speaker 7>Regarding Taiwan, Blincoln said, the US reserves are right to

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<v Speaker 7>defend Taiwan on the case of an attack. In San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 7>I'm at Baxter Bloomberg day break, All.

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<v Speaker 8>Right, thank you well.

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<v Speaker 1>China's foreign ministry is describing President She's meeting with Blincoln

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<v Speaker 1>as a courtesy. We get more from Bloomberg, Steven Engel

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<v Speaker 1>and Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 9>The meeting that She din Ping gave to Blincoln is

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<v Speaker 9>a good sign. He didn't have to do it, and

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<v Speaker 9>he wouldn't have done it on Chinese soil if the

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<v Speaker 9>tone was bad. So that's how I lay out the

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<v Speaker 9>assessment of it. No deliverables other than small agreements perhaps

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<v Speaker 9>on visas and flights and the like, not any specifics,

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<v Speaker 9>but the big issues still remain.

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<v Speaker 1>Still Bloomberg Steven Engeler reports both sides agreed to keep talking.

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese Foreign Minister Chen Goong plans to visit Washington in

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<v Speaker 1>the coming months.

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<v Speaker 2>In other political news this morning, Karen former President Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump is speaking out again about the federal charges against him.

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<v Speaker 2>In a wide ranging interview with Fox News, the former

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<v Speaker 2>president said he did not return hundreds of classified documents

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<v Speaker 2>to the National Archives because he was too busy. Morris

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<v Speaker 2>has more from our Bloomberg ninety nine one newsroom in Washington.

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<v Speaker 8>Former President Donald Trump tells Fox that at the National

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<v Speaker 8>Archives wanted the documents return, they only had to ask.

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<v Speaker 10>Please, please please, could we have it back?

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<v Speaker 8>And while the National Archives did request the return of

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<v Speaker 8>the documents in the form of a subpoena, Trump says

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<v Speaker 8>he's been too busy to remove personal items from boxes

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<v Speaker 8>packed at the White House.

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<v Speaker 6>Before I send boxes over, I have to take all

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<v Speaker 6>of my things out.

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<v Speaker 11>These boxes were interspersed with all sorts of things.

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<v Speaker 8>Trump also claimed he didn't know there were classified military

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<v Speaker 8>plans among those documents, even though in an audio recording

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<v Speaker 8>he can be heard describing a document that shows Joint

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<v Speaker 8>chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milly want to do Invader

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<v Speaker 8>Ron as being highly confidential, saying he can't declassify it

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<v Speaker 8>now that he's out of office in Washington. I maymy

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<v Speaker 8>Morris Bloomberg day break a.

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<v Speaker 1>Right amy, thank you well. Turning to the markets, The

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<v Speaker 1>big event this week is coming up tomorrow and Thursday,

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<v Speaker 1>when Fed Chairman j Powell gives his semi annual report

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<v Speaker 1>to Congress, we get a preview with Bloomberg's Michael McKee.

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<v Speaker 3>Given his testimony comes just a week after his last

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<v Speaker 3>news conference, Chairman Pole isn't expected to make a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of headlines. What analysts and investors would like to hear

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<v Speaker 3>is more guidance about when and under what conditions the

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<v Speaker 3>Fed would raise rates again. Central bankers said last week

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<v Speaker 3>they anticipate two more moves this year. There will also

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<v Speaker 3>be questions about FED supervision of banks, particularly those which

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<v Speaker 3>failed in March. Did the FED consider the impact of

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<v Speaker 3>its rapid series of rate increases on the banks? And

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<v Speaker 3>lawmakers will want to know what additional regulation is coming

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<v Speaker 3>for the financial system. Michael McKee Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, Mike, thank you. Ahead of that testimony, the

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<v Speaker 2>S and P five hundred heads into a holiday shortened

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<v Speaker 2>training week coming off five straight weekly gains. Chris Marangi

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<v Speaker 2>is co Chief Investment Officer at GAMCO.

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<v Speaker 10>The market reaction has been a little bit surprising, obviously,

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<v Speaker 10>give him a hawkish tone from the Fed. Either the

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<v Speaker 10>market doesn't believe the Fed, they think the Fed is bluffing,

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<v Speaker 10>or they don't care about another twenty five fifty bases

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<v Speaker 10>point increase in rates. I think it's more The.

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<v Speaker 2>Former GAMCOS Chris Maji notes the SMP five hundred is

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<v Speaker 2>up more than two twenty three percent from its October low.

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<v Speaker 1>Well back to Asia, we have more big news overnight.

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<v Speaker 1>Apart from the Secretary of State's visit, Ali Baba is

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<v Speaker 1>replacing Daniel Zeng as chairman of the group, and Blueberry

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<v Speaker 1>Daybreak Asia anchor Brian Curtis has more from Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 11>Executive vice chair Joseph Zi becomes chairman of the board.

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<v Speaker 11>CI owns the Brooklyn Nets and is a confidant of

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<v Speaker 11>Ali Baba co founder Jack Maw. Eddie Wu, now chairman

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<v Speaker 11>of the TWBAW and Team Mall divisions, takes over his CEO,

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<v Speaker 11>the outgoing jong Ren Ali Baba as it bled market share.

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<v Speaker 11>His shock departure comes after Baba announced a six way

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<v Speaker 11>restructuring the ree org is an effort to gin up

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<v Speaker 11>growth by creating standalone firms that are more nimble. Some

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<v Speaker 11>analysts we spoke to said the changes show that Jack

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<v Speaker 11>maw is still the spiritual leader of Ali Baba in

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<v Speaker 11>Hong Kong. Brian Curtis Bloombergy Daybreak, Thank.

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<v Speaker 2>You, Brian. Staying in Asia, former Nissan CEO Carlos Goon

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<v Speaker 2>is suing the Japanese automaker over his twenty eighteen ouster

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<v Speaker 2>and arrest. Gon is seeking more than a billion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>from Nissan and connected individuals for what he calls deep

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<v Speaker 2>damage to his finances and reputation. The former auto exec

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<v Speaker 2>filest claims in Lebanon, where he's lived since his escape

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<v Speaker 2>from Japan in late twenty nineteen to flee trial.

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<v Speaker 1>Well in Europe, Nathan shares a UBS or down almost

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<v Speaker 1>one percent. Bloomberg News has learned the Swiss bank is

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<v Speaker 1>facing one hundreds of millions of dollars in fines. Time

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<v Speaker 1>to credit sweeze dealings with Archie Ghost Capital, UBS has

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<v Speaker 1>inherited a long list of unresolved cases following the completion

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<v Speaker 1>of its emergency takeover of Credit Suisse.

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<v Speaker 2>Time now to take a look at some of the

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<v Speaker 2>other stories making news in New York and around the world,

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<v Speaker 2>including a dramatic situation in the Atlantic. Here's Michael bar

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, Michael.

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<v Speaker 4>Good morning, Nathan. A desperate search continues about four hundred

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<v Speaker 4>and thirty five miles south of Saint John's, Newfoundland, as

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<v Speaker 4>the Titanic wreckage site submarine that takes scientists and tourists

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<v Speaker 4>to see the wreck went missing Sunday. Five people are

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<v Speaker 4>on board the Titanic lies at the bottom of the

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<v Speaker 4>thirteen thousand feet down. Coastguard Rear Admiral John Maugert.

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<v Speaker 12>The use of saunar, buies and sonar on the ship

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<v Speaker 12>that's out there to listen for any sounds that we

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<v Speaker 12>can detect in the water column.

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<v Speaker 4>Admiral John Magers says there is enough there to survive

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<v Speaker 4>for just ninety six hours. Gun violence March Juneteenth celebrations

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<v Speaker 4>in several cities. Sixteens were shot in Milwaukee. Police say

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<v Speaker 4>it started as a fight between a group of females.

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<v Speaker 4>Across Chicago, police say at least ten people were killed

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<v Speaker 4>and sixty more injured in shootings. Mass shootings were also

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<v Speaker 4>reported in San Francisco, Baltimore, and Philadelphia. Several tornadoes touched

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<v Speaker 4>down in Mississippi yesterday, leaving at least one person dead

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<v Speaker 4>and more than two dozen herd Officials in Moss Point

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<v Speaker 4>say hundreds of buildings were damaged or destroyed. Mayor Billy Knight.

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<v Speaker 13>Oh jim Nasium is at the high school is heavily damaged,

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<v Speaker 13>and the administration Angy School District's destroyed. The church run

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<v Speaker 13>across the street from given if the roof is off.

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<v Speaker 13>The houses and other businesses in that ariial main street

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<v Speaker 13>perim well damage as well.

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<v Speaker 4>The Mississippi Emergency Management Agency says more than forty nine

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<v Speaker 4>hundred homes in the central part of the state are

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<v Speaker 4>without power. Singer b. B. Rexa was injured after a

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<v Speaker 4>cell phone was thrown from the audience and struck her

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<v Speaker 4>in the face during a concert in Manhattan. It happened

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<v Speaker 4>at the rooftop at Pier seventeen in Lower Manhattan over

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<v Speaker 4>the long holiday weekend. During her last song in the set.

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<v Speaker 4>The phone came in from the crowd, striking near her

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<v Speaker 4>left eye. Rexa dropped to her knees and helped buy

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<v Speaker 4>security off the stage. She was taken to a hospital

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<v Speaker 4>and is set to receive three stitches along with a

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<v Speaker 4>black eye. Police in Manalapan, New Jersey, say twenty seven

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<v Speaker 4>year old Nicholas Malvagna was arrested in charge with a

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<v Speaker 4>salt Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by

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<v Speaker 4>more been twenty seven hundred journalist natilists over one hundred

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<v Speaker 4>and twenty countries. I'm Michael barn This is Bloomberg, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Michael, time now for the Bloomberg Sports up Day.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, John Stan Schewer.

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<v Speaker 4>Good morning, Nathan.

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<v Speaker 5>The Mets went to Houston having lost eleven of their

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<v Speaker 5>last fourteen games and only three National League teams having

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<v Speaker 5>a worst record, and they had to face the Astros,

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<v Speaker 5>defending world champs. Although this season Houston's in just third

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<v Speaker 5>place in the als. Then the Mets crushed them eleven

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<v Speaker 5>to one a five run third inning with home runs

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<v Speaker 5>by Daniel vogelback in Francisco Lindor, and the Mets for

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<v Speaker 5>good measure, tacked on five more in the ninth. Max Scherzer,

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<v Speaker 5>in his previous two starts, had given up eleven runs

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<v Speaker 5>and eighteen hits. This time he gave up one run

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<v Speaker 5>only four hits. He went eight innings for the first

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<v Speaker 5>time as a Met. It's Justin Verlander tonight against his

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<v Speaker 5>old team. Verlander last night got his World Series ring

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<v Speaker 5>at the stadium. Tonight will be Garrett Cole against Seattle's

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<v Speaker 5>George Kirby, the Westchester native who three weeks ago hurled

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<v Speaker 5>eight scoreless innings against the Yanks, who are pretty much

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<v Speaker 5>not scoring against anyone these days. Their manager is Aaron Boom.

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<v Speaker 14>The most part, we've been playing pretty well. We just

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<v Speaker 14>haven't scored a lot, and we find ourselves on the

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<v Speaker 14>losing side of things. So we got a you know,

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<v Speaker 14>the biggest thing right now is just collectively offensively, we

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<v Speaker 14>gotta you know, we got to find a way and

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<v Speaker 14>and and kind of turn the page and know that, yeah,

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<v Speaker 14>this is a little bit of a tough stretch, but

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<v Speaker 14>can't all do it by yourself.

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<v Speaker 5>Thanks Just four and eight since the Aaron Judge toe injury.

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<v Speaker 5>NBA news with the Draft approaching Thursday, the big trade

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<v Speaker 5>Bradley Beale for Chris Paul Bild joining two other big

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<v Speaker 5>scores Kevin Rant, Devin Booker and Phoenix. Paul for now

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<v Speaker 5>is with Washington, but he could be moved again to

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<v Speaker 5>be bought out. Said he found out about the trade

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<v Speaker 5>in a text from his son, Draymond Green. Eleven seasons

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<v Speaker 5>with the Golden State, winner of four championships, he opted out.

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<v Speaker 5>Have we an unrestricted free agent. The Warriors say they

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<v Speaker 5>want to keep Green, He says he wants to stay.

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<v Speaker 2>John Stashing Bloomberg Sports.

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<v Speaker 6>From coast to coast, from New York to Francisco.

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<v Speaker 4>Boston to Washington, DC.

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<v Speaker 6>Nationwide on Syrias Exam, the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 6>dot Com.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Stocks

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<v Speaker 2>are headed into this holiday shortened trading week on a

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<v Speaker 2>five week winning streak for the S and P five hundred,

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<v Speaker 2>but this second quarter rally could be running into some

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<v Speaker 2>resistance from economic headwinds and signs the market is getting overbought.

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<v Speaker 2>But let's get some more analysis. Now we're joined by

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<v Speaker 2>Dennis Gartman, the chairman of the University of Akron Endowment

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<v Speaker 2>Investment Committee and the former publisher of the Gartman Letter.

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<v Speaker 2>Dennis got to ask you, do you think this market's

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<v Speaker 2>getting overbought?

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<v Speaker 15>Just a matter of how seriously overbought it that it

0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:45.080
<v Speaker 15>has become an a is. I hate to bring up

0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:54.760
<v Speaker 15>a another group, but then serin Greed index has risen

0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:58.360
<v Speaker 15>to eighty two, which is as egregiously overbought as I

0:11:58.400 --> 0:12:00.959
<v Speaker 15>have seen it in the past ten years. And when

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.120
<v Speaker 15>you get to anything over eighty on the CNN Fair

0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:08.520
<v Speaker 15>and Greed indexes seriously extended market, You've got The market

0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:11.160
<v Speaker 15>has what we commonly said in the last several months,

0:12:11.240 --> 0:12:13.880
<v Speaker 15>bad breadth. The number of stocks that are down for

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:16.280
<v Speaker 15>the year is substantively higher than the number of stocks

0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:18.280
<v Speaker 15>that are up for the year, and only seven or

0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:19.920
<v Speaker 15>ten of the stocks on the S and P five

0:12:20.000 --> 0:12:22.520
<v Speaker 15>hundred have accounted for all of the gain thus far.

0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:29.119
<v Speaker 15>So yes, the market is egregiously, preposterously, seriously, almost comically overbought,

0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:31.800
<v Speaker 15>and do for correction. But I've said that for the

0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:33.719
<v Speaker 15>past three weeks or four weeks or so. So I've

0:12:33.720 --> 0:12:36.520
<v Speaker 15>been wrong for the past month, sadly wrong. But I'm

0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:38.959
<v Speaker 15>not going to buy the market up here. If anything,

0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.520
<v Speaker 15>I'm going to be slightly not short, or certainly if

0:12:41.559 --> 0:12:44.439
<v Speaker 15>you're egregiously long at this point, getting less long, I

0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:48.320
<v Speaker 15>think is a reasonable and viable and proper course of

0:12:48.360 --> 0:12:49.040
<v Speaker 15>action to take.

0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:52.120
<v Speaker 2>Well, what do you think has fueled the rally at

0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:55.480
<v Speaker 2>this point and what would it take to get to

0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:59.440
<v Speaker 2>that correction that you have been forecasting for the past

0:12:59.440 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 2>few weeks.

0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:06.160
<v Speaker 15>Here, the FET has been less tight then they said

0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.000
<v Speaker 15>it would be. They were supposed to be taking ninety

0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.560
<v Speaker 15>five billion dollars worth of treasury securities out of the

0:13:11.559 --> 0:13:13.360
<v Speaker 15>market out of its balance sheet over the course of

0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:16.400
<v Speaker 15>the past several months, and it's only taking about sixty

0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:20.959
<v Speaker 15>five billion out. That's I think the reason why we've

0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:23.800
<v Speaker 15>had a stronger rally, plus the fact that the Fed

0:13:23.920 --> 0:13:28.679
<v Speaker 15>has been less stringent as far as rate the level

0:13:28.679 --> 0:13:31.160
<v Speaker 15>of the overnight Fed funds rate for the course of

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:33.320
<v Speaker 15>the past several months. We're going to get another increase

0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 15>in the Fed funds rate again when the Fed meets

0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.120
<v Speaker 15>in July, but that probably shall be the end of

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.120
<v Speaker 15>it for the long period of time. But anybody who

0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:45.360
<v Speaker 15>expects to see the THAD begin to ease monetary policy that,

0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.080
<v Speaker 15>anybody who expects to see the THEAED begin to allow

0:13:48.120 --> 0:13:50.720
<v Speaker 15>the overnight deed funds rate to decline in the next

0:13:50.920 --> 0:13:53.640
<v Speaker 15>six months is probably wrong with The Fed is probably

0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:57.480
<v Speaker 15>going to be less amenable to any cut in the

0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:59.960
<v Speaker 15>overnight Fed funds rate until at least twenty twenty four,

0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:03.480
<v Speaker 15>maybe till quite very late in twenty twenty four before

0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:07.280
<v Speaker 15>we see that. So you've had, I think a very

0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 15>small handful of stocks that are driven the stock market higher,

0:14:10.200 --> 0:14:11.920
<v Speaker 15>and I think that's coming to an end. So the

0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:14.960
<v Speaker 15>CNN there and greed indext at eighty two is as

0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.120
<v Speaker 15>egregiously overbought as we have seen the market in several years.

0:14:18.559 --> 0:14:22.120
<v Speaker 2>It's interesting, Dennis, that you think that one more rate

0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 2>hike could be one and done for the FED. What

0:14:25.360 --> 0:14:27.920
<v Speaker 2>makes you say that, given that we did hear from

0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:31.240
<v Speaker 2>Chairman Powell last week the possibility that we could get

0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:34.560
<v Speaker 2>another couple of rate hikes before they head into a

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:35.880
<v Speaker 2>long term pause mode.

0:14:36.600 --> 0:14:40.240
<v Speaker 15>Well, his comments and comments from mister Waller and comments

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:44.680
<v Speaker 15>from the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:48.440
<v Speaker 15>would indicate that they could get two more rate increases

0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:51.160
<v Speaker 15>before they're done. What's the difference between one or two?

0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:53.320
<v Speaker 15>To be quite honest, the fact that we've gotten about

0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.040
<v Speaker 15>five percent is from zero over the course of the

0:14:56.120 --> 0:15:00.240
<v Speaker 15>past two years. If you miss it by one by

0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:02.640
<v Speaker 15>one more, one more increase, you you've done a pretty

0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 15>good job. And when they when the SAD began the

0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:08.320
<v Speaker 15>process of raising the overnight Fed funds rate two years ago,

0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 15>I made the statement then that they were going to

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 15>take rates far farther and for a far longer period

0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.320
<v Speaker 15>of time than anybody had anticipated, and actually said that

0:15:15.360 --> 0:15:17.680
<v Speaker 15>we probably get close to five percent before it was done.

0:15:18.320 --> 0:15:20.440
<v Speaker 15>And I've been right for the past two years on that.

0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:22.520
<v Speaker 15>So if we if we if I miss it by

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.120
<v Speaker 15>one more cut or one more increase, I think they'll

0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:27.880
<v Speaker 15>get one. If they get two. That my miss has

0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 15>been relatively minor at that point. So I'm not too

0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 15>certain that Powell will say much more this week when

0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 15>he appears before Congress. He's going to reiterate the fact

0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:40.880
<v Speaker 15>that they're going to they're sticking to their two percent

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.840
<v Speaker 15>target as far as the inflation rate is concerned. So

0:15:46.360 --> 0:15:50.760
<v Speaker 15>we'll let's just say that we've seen the vast majority

0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.200
<v Speaker 15>of the rate increases. Whether we get one or two

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:55.800
<v Speaker 15>is really quite inconsequential as far as I'm concerned.

0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:59.040
<v Speaker 2>Just thirty seconds left, Dennis, what's your call for recession risk?

0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:02.400
<v Speaker 15>I thought we've been in recession for a while. It's

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:06.760
<v Speaker 15>going to be if we we had. The NBER has

0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.000
<v Speaker 15>not made it statement yet. I think we'll look back

0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:11.000
<v Speaker 15>and realize that in real terms, we were probably in

0:16:11.040 --> 0:16:13.480
<v Speaker 15>recession for the past six months. I think we're going

0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 15>to be in a We'll have toway for the NBER

0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 15>to make it statement later later this year or early

0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:21.240
<v Speaker 15>next year, and they always are six months to nine

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:23.760
<v Speaker 15>months later in making the announcements. So I think we're

0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 15>going to be in recession. And if here depends on

0:16:25.960 --> 0:16:27.840
<v Speaker 15>which industry you're in. If you're in real estate, there's

0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:30.600
<v Speaker 15>no question you're in a very serious recession already.

0:16:32.840 --> 0:16:35.760
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