WEBVTT - Best of Risky Business: Building a Championship Team (with Daryl Morey) 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:28.324 Pushkin the Risky Business listeners. Nate and I are busy 0:00:28.364 --> 0:00:31.364 this week at a different poker tournament, but since the 0:00:31.484 --> 0:00:33.964 NBA is back in season, we wanted to reshare an 0:00:34.004 --> 0:00:36.364 interview that we did on the podcast last year that 0:00:36.484 --> 0:00:37.804 both of us really enjoyed. 0:00:38.204 --> 0:00:40.564 We talked to friend of the pod, Darryl Morey, who 0:00:40.604 --> 0:00:43.364 was the president of basketball operations for the Philadelphia seventy 0:00:43.404 --> 0:00:47.324 six Ers and one of the truly og statnerds that 0:00:47.404 --> 0:00:48.964 made it big and professional sports. 0:00:49.284 --> 0:00:51.524 Yeah, we talked about the seventy six Ers strategy for 0:00:51.564 --> 0:00:54.684 their championship run last year, and we talked in general 0:00:54.724 --> 0:00:58.324 about what you need to do to build a championship team. 0:00:58.964 --> 0:00:59.164 Yeah. 0:00:59.204 --> 0:01:02.764 I look six Ers have made some further high risk bets. 0:01:02.804 --> 0:01:05.044 They directed VJ. Edgecombe, who is one of the brighton 0:01:05.124 --> 0:01:07.084 stars in the NBA. I think things looking a little 0:01:07.244 --> 0:01:10.964 better overall for the franchise. I'm getting the interview with Darryl, 0:01:12.084 --> 0:01:14.084 but like we think you'll get a lot of insight. 0:01:13.844 --> 0:01:17.924 Out of this. Yeah. We've also both played poker with Darryl, 0:01:18.044 --> 0:01:22.244 so we recapped some tournament play, including the absolutely horrific 0:01:22.284 --> 0:01:25.044 summer I had at the World Series last year. Anyway, 0:01:25.084 --> 0:01:33.844 we hope you'll enjoy this. I'm really excited for this conversation. 0:01:34.644 --> 0:01:36.644 Nate and I have both known Darren for a while. 0:01:37.564 --> 0:01:41.924 And Aaron, I said, Darryl, he said, he said, there, 0:01:42.764 --> 0:01:44.084 let's let's see. Let's good to I. 0:01:45.564 --> 0:01:48.724 Use a replay challenge. 0:01:48.764 --> 0:01:52.804 I thought, I thought you were doing really well, Maureene 0:01:52.844 --> 0:01:56.404 and I and I fucked it all up. I'm excited 0:01:56.444 --> 0:01:59.124 to be on because you guys are all about decision making. 0:01:59.244 --> 0:02:03.604 That's the only thing I do. So I'm on. I'm 0:02:03.644 --> 0:02:07.644 on twenty twenty two years. I think. I think that's right. Yeah, 0:02:07.724 --> 0:02:12.044 of just making this for teams, so for people. 0:02:11.764 --> 0:02:14.884 Who don't know you are a true Ravarian to use 0:02:14.924 --> 0:02:16.804 a term from the book, cald like you even play. 0:02:16.884 --> 0:02:19.724 I mean, you're really competitive and you like analytics, but 0:02:19.764 --> 0:02:20.444 you really want to win. 0:02:22.124 --> 0:02:23.684 Yeah, exactly exactly. 0:02:24.604 --> 0:02:26.604 I think I think that's a motivation that we can 0:02:26.764 --> 0:02:28.924 we can all relate to. 0:02:29.604 --> 0:02:34.844 It's funny because of you. Thank you. Sorry, no no. 0:02:35.364 --> 0:02:40.804 I was giving a talk in Miami at uh at 0:02:40.804 --> 0:02:42.684 a conference where where there were a lot of people 0:02:42.724 --> 0:02:46.084 who were very into analytics, and we were talking about, 0:02:46.084 --> 0:02:48.524 you know, different strategies and all this, and I was 0:02:48.564 --> 0:02:50.644 like you know what, but like the bottom line is, 0:02:50.684 --> 0:02:53.284 like I love poker, but like I want to fucking win, 0:02:53.764 --> 0:02:56.084 right you guys. 0:02:56.164 --> 0:03:01.484 That congrats on the bracelet. You're you're You're one up 0:03:01.524 --> 0:03:04.124 on Nate as far as I know on zero. 0:03:04.364 --> 0:03:07.884 So it's thank you so much, Daryl. 0:03:08.084 --> 0:03:11.404 Dear so, I've played Poker Institute two or three times 0:03:11.524 --> 0:03:15.524 or something. Darryl, I'm just gonna tell people has very 0:03:15.524 --> 0:03:20.324 bad chip etiquette. You're supposed to stack your chips and 0:03:20.404 --> 0:03:23.884 miles of twenty twenty. Absolutely, if you don't do that, 0:03:23.884 --> 0:03:26.044 that's actually kind of a disadvance of the players. I 0:03:26.044 --> 0:03:27.164 can't see a many chips you have. 0:03:28.764 --> 0:03:30.684 Those assets. Daryl. I like you so much. 0:03:30.844 --> 0:03:32.884 Don't know totally. 0:03:32.564 --> 0:03:34.964 Like if a player is seen as good for the game, 0:03:35.644 --> 0:03:37.164 there might be less requests. 0:03:38.324 --> 0:03:42.524 No, I uh, Sadly, I haven't put the time into poker, 0:03:42.844 --> 0:03:44.924 and I get invited to a lot of games and 0:03:44.964 --> 0:03:47.284 I'm not sure why. Maybe because I don't win very often. 0:03:47.324 --> 0:03:50.204 So yeah, I will say though, Maria, you're you're a pro. 0:03:50.324 --> 0:03:54.564 So it's Nate. I try to at least let my ego. 0:03:54.964 --> 0:03:56.684 Given the fact that I don't win poker a lot, 0:03:57.164 --> 0:03:59.524 I handle it by pointing out that I'm usually playing 0:03:59.524 --> 0:04:02.644 with two or three pros and it doesn't seem very fair. 0:04:04.364 --> 0:04:07.524 If you guys, absolutely not fair, And I promise I'll 0:04:07.564 --> 0:04:09.404 be nice to you if you let me play. 0:04:11.964 --> 0:04:14.444 You definitely want me in your game area, that's sure. 0:04:14.724 --> 0:04:15.764 You are very aggressive. 0:04:16.164 --> 0:04:16.924 Do you use. 0:04:18.724 --> 0:04:21.964 Game theory in any way in decision making? 0:04:22.644 --> 0:04:26.644 Yeah? So, I mean probably the easiest one to talk 0:04:26.684 --> 0:04:29.644 through is like the two for one is a pretty 0:04:29.644 --> 0:04:33.444 easy sort of game theory problem. No one's really gotten 0:04:33.484 --> 0:04:37.004 to the extreme game theory, but it's coming. It's definitely coming. 0:04:38.124 --> 0:04:40.404 So two for one. Just for your audience, there's a 0:04:40.404 --> 0:04:43.444 twenty four second shot clock in the NBA. If you 0:04:43.484 --> 0:04:47.004 have the ball, let's say forty seconds or thirty five 0:04:47.044 --> 0:04:50.364 to forty seconds. You can either run your normal offense 0:04:50.644 --> 0:04:53.484 and get a shot in twenty seconds and now there's 0:04:53.484 --> 0:04:55.644 fifteen remaining, so you get one shot and they get 0:04:55.684 --> 0:05:00.604 one shot, and or you can take a shot quickly 0:05:00.684 --> 0:05:02.524 and then the other team only it's went for seconds, 0:05:02.524 --> 0:05:04.164 so you'll get the ball back. Well, it turns out 0:05:04.924 --> 0:05:07.524 in thousands of thousands of trials at every level of basketball, 0:05:07.564 --> 0:05:09.364 this is going to shock your audience, which I'm sure 0:05:09.484 --> 0:05:12.844 is pretty sophisticated. Two shots are better than one shot. 0:05:12.924 --> 0:05:16.324 I know, I know that will surprise people, but even 0:05:16.444 --> 0:05:20.284 even even even materially worse, two shots are better than 0:05:20.324 --> 0:05:24.644 one shot. There are some exceptions in the fourth quarter 0:05:24.844 --> 0:05:26.964 and things like that, but but in the first three 0:05:27.044 --> 0:05:30.964 quarters it's pretty straightforward. Well, obviously, if the other team says, okay, 0:05:31.004 --> 0:05:33.044 I'm gonna shoot such that I force you into the 0:05:33.044 --> 0:05:36.924 two for one, the other side isn't just this blod 0:05:37.404 --> 0:05:41.444 you know, undynamic opponent. They can then shoot even faster, 0:05:41.644 --> 0:05:44.524 faster back at you. In fact, the Utah Jazz when 0:05:44.564 --> 0:05:46.444 Joey Sloan was there, would do this more than any 0:05:46.524 --> 0:05:50.324 team that I can recall. And then so now there's 0:05:50.804 --> 0:05:54.084 there's a whole set of other strategies that if they 0:05:54.164 --> 0:05:56.364 somehow manipulate the clock better than you, you can then 0:05:56.404 --> 0:05:59.724 regenerate the two for one, like fouling them or being 0:05:59.804 --> 0:06:02.444 super aggressive to speed up their offense. There's a whole 0:06:02.684 --> 0:06:05.724 set of things. So that's just one off the top. Obviously, 0:06:05.724 --> 0:06:09.044 there's game theory and in in game in terms of 0:06:09.124 --> 0:06:12.084 like how do you react to you know, they put 0:06:12.204 --> 0:06:14.524 five out shooting lineups on the floor, how do you 0:06:14.604 --> 0:06:15.724 guard that things. 0:06:15.524 --> 0:06:21.284 Like that, So, and what about when you're making roster decisions, 0:06:21.324 --> 0:06:23.444 when you're when you're thinking about trading, and when you 0:06:23.484 --> 0:06:27.364 actually have to think about yourself as one player in 0:06:27.404 --> 0:06:30.844 a multiplayer game because there are other yous out there 0:06:31.164 --> 0:06:33.804 who are responsible for other teams who are going to 0:06:33.804 --> 0:06:36.604 be making different moves and responding to you. So how 0:06:36.604 --> 0:06:38.204 do you think about it off the court in that 0:06:38.364 --> 0:06:39.284 kind of that metagame? 0:06:39.644 --> 0:06:44.004 That's right, And it's a heavily repeating game because you know, 0:06:44.004 --> 0:06:47.644 it's the same thirty teams. What's really interesting is it's 0:06:47.644 --> 0:06:51.164 a heavily repeating game, but they can replace the key 0:06:51.204 --> 0:06:53.364 decision maker, so it's actually a repeating game at the 0:06:53.404 --> 0:06:56.604 ownership level more than it is at my level where 0:06:56.644 --> 0:06:59.164 people can get fired. So there have been such sort 0:06:59.164 --> 0:07:02.764 of these famous examples of people, you know, making future 0:07:02.804 --> 0:07:06.444 promises or things like that that they then try to 0:07:07.244 --> 0:07:09.964 duck out of and things like that. So, so yeah, 0:07:10.004 --> 0:07:13.364 we're in a repeating game that can work to advantage 0:07:13.364 --> 0:07:17.524 if you treated as such. Again, your audience probably probably 0:07:17.604 --> 0:07:20.604 pretty familiar with like what non repeating or repeating game 0:07:20.684 --> 0:07:21.924 type differences. 0:07:22.004 --> 0:07:27.324 So so NBA teams place an extremely high premium on 0:07:27.484 --> 0:07:31.204 superstar talent, especially in the short term. You know, the 0:07:31.204 --> 0:07:33.004 New York Knicks what they give up for Bridges like 0:07:33.004 --> 0:07:37.964 four or five first round picks and he's a good player, 0:07:38.044 --> 0:07:42.284 but probably the third best player on a contending team. 0:07:43.084 --> 0:07:47.364 Are gms too short term focused because of the incentive issue, 0:07:47.484 --> 0:07:51.124 or are like analytics nerds doing the math wrong and say, actually, 0:07:51.124 --> 0:07:54.764 these draft picks are not that valuable and superstars are 0:07:54.884 --> 0:07:58.484 very valuable, because if you run it through some model, 0:07:58.524 --> 0:08:02.484 it's like, okay, well, the draft picks worth like, you know, 0:08:02.524 --> 0:08:07.164 twenty five million dollars a year in excess returns, and 0:08:07.524 --> 0:08:09.884 Bridges is underpaid by ten million, And I don't know, 0:08:10.444 --> 0:08:11.444 you know what I'm saying. 0:08:12.284 --> 0:08:15.524 Yeah, I think teams are basically wrong at both extremes. 0:08:15.764 --> 0:08:20.724 So they're both not aggressively long term enough. You probably 0:08:20.724 --> 0:08:22.644 like if you actually run the math and you just 0:08:22.684 --> 0:08:26.204 say that you're optimizing you know p you guys talked 0:08:26.244 --> 0:08:29.444 about P doom on your list of the PE Championship 0:08:29.524 --> 0:08:32.884 over three years, if you actually were just optimizing that variable, 0:08:33.324 --> 0:08:37.004 and I can promise you no team actually does do that. Really, 0:08:37.084 --> 0:08:40.084 like twenty something like twenty four of the team should 0:08:40.124 --> 0:08:44.564 be fully rebuilding just long term every year, because if 0:08:44.604 --> 0:08:46.724 you don't have a top five player, your odds of 0:08:47.244 --> 0:08:53.404 PE championship are extremely low. So it's so I would say, 0:08:53.564 --> 0:08:56.604 you know, that's sort of the first thing. The second thing, 0:08:56.644 --> 0:08:59.204 I just just wanted to set up the for people 0:08:59.284 --> 0:09:03.484 to quite understand why the superstars are so important and 0:09:03.484 --> 0:09:06.084 why it's important to sort of save your assets for 0:09:06.244 --> 0:09:10.644 those moves. I think the easiest way I describe it 0:09:10.644 --> 0:09:13.884 as take show Hao Tani, you know the best hitter 0:09:13.924 --> 0:09:18.404 in baseball. Now, when show Heo Tany hits a home 0:09:18.484 --> 0:09:22.364 run against the Mets, he then has to wait eight 0:09:22.444 --> 0:09:26.884 more times before he gets to hit again. Basketball is 0:09:26.924 --> 0:09:29.164 like show Heyo Tany. He comes on the floor, hits 0:09:29.164 --> 0:09:30.844 a three, and then when he comes on the floor 0:09:30.844 --> 0:09:32.924 again and he goes like, I'm still the best player, 0:09:33.444 --> 0:09:36.924 so I'm shooting again. So just imagine show Heo Tony 0:09:37.004 --> 0:09:39.684 being able to hit every single time with Sho Heo 0:09:39.764 --> 0:09:42.044 Tiny's on the base. So that's what you can do 0:09:42.044 --> 0:09:45.964 in bastball. It's actually gotten worse lately, and this will 0:09:45.964 --> 0:09:48.284 be a little bit for the NBA nerds, But because 0:09:48.364 --> 0:09:50.404 a lot of these players who are so great can 0:09:50.444 --> 0:09:53.524 only be guarded by switching pick and roll. So pick 0:09:53.564 --> 0:09:56.804 and roll is one of the staples of our sport. Basically, 0:09:56.844 --> 0:09:59.964 someone knocks your man off from guarding you. It's pretty simple. 0:10:01.044 --> 0:10:03.724 The easiest way to guard that, but one that hadn't 0:10:03.764 --> 0:10:05.644 been used because you can end up with seven feet 0:10:05.684 --> 0:10:08.684 people on six foot people is you just switch the 0:10:08.724 --> 0:10:12.324 screen and that the person who gets hit stays with 0:10:12.364 --> 0:10:14.484 the guy that they were hit on, and the other 0:10:14.524 --> 0:10:20.244 person switches. So the smart NBA players, you know, see 0:10:20.244 --> 0:10:24.924 that now, and they they can basically screen and decide 0:10:24.924 --> 0:10:27.324 who guards them. So now imagine show, hey, Tony not 0:10:27.364 --> 0:10:29.964 only bats every time he's up, he gets to select 0:10:30.004 --> 0:10:32.444 the pitcher on the other team, he gets to go 0:10:32.524 --> 0:10:35.524 against every time down the floor. So and now you 0:10:35.604 --> 0:10:38.884 understand why you know, someone like Lebron James can at 0:10:39.004 --> 0:10:42.484 his peak be worth thirty, like close to thirty wins 0:10:42.524 --> 0:10:45.924 on eighty two games, like an insane impact that is 0:10:45.964 --> 0:10:50.764 not even closely replicated in any other sport. So back 0:10:50.804 --> 0:10:52.964 back to original question, Nate, which now I feel like 0:10:53.004 --> 0:10:57.604 I've gone far afield, But it's a podcast. The entire 0:10:58.284 --> 0:11:00.044 is that how it works? Is that how works it is? 0:11:00.124 --> 0:11:00.444 It is? 0:11:00.604 --> 0:11:04.484 Yeah? Yeah, that did I answer your original question. I 0:11:04.484 --> 0:11:04.924 feel like I. 0:11:04.884 --> 0:11:09.124 Didn't, well, because you're famous for having this kind of 0:11:09.964 --> 0:11:13.484 in fantasy basically call the stars and scrubs yep approach, 0:11:13.564 --> 0:11:16.844 Like not to denigrate the back half of the current 0:11:16.884 --> 0:11:19.524 seventy six ers roster, but like they're all they're all 0:11:19.564 --> 0:11:23.524 a minimum. Salaries are just barely above minimum. Is that 0:11:23.564 --> 0:11:27.044 partly because you think that you can actually get the 0:11:27.204 --> 0:11:29.324 average talent instead of replacement level talent. 0:11:29.484 --> 0:11:31.764 Yeah, so I think that becomes a linear this is 0:11:31.884 --> 0:11:33.724 the this is the geek podcast, so I can geek 0:11:33.764 --> 0:11:35.884 out of it. It becomes a linear It becomes a 0:11:35.924 --> 0:11:40.964 linear programming problem. So the most efficient spending in the 0:11:41.044 --> 0:11:45.204 league are on minimums and draft picks who are playing 0:11:45.284 --> 0:11:49.364 above their above their weight, essentially where you can they 0:11:49.364 --> 0:11:52.324 can be worth double or triple while you're paying them. 0:11:52.684 --> 0:11:55.244 The problem is you can only put about eight players 0:11:55.284 --> 0:11:59.964 on the floor, so you can't actually fully capture that efficiency. 0:12:00.044 --> 0:12:03.844 Like if I could put sixty draft picks or minimum 0:12:03.884 --> 0:12:07.244 players that I've you know, carefully selected that are worth 0:12:07.284 --> 0:12:09.364 more than I'm paying them, I could, and I could 0:12:09.524 --> 0:12:12.284 do that, I could win the game. But unfortunately you're 0:12:12.284 --> 0:12:14.124 only allowed to put five on the FLOORI ADA time, 0:12:14.164 --> 0:12:17.644 and only really eight even play, usually especially in a 0:12:17.644 --> 0:12:22.324 playoff series. So when you look at the how do 0:12:22.364 --> 0:12:27.124 you like generate the most wins? Even a player who 0:12:27.204 --> 0:12:30.724 is just worth his salary, that's highly paid, is actually 0:12:30.724 --> 0:12:33.604 more important than these players who are worth double or 0:12:33.604 --> 0:12:36.724 triple worth. They're paid at the minimum. Then on top 0:12:36.764 --> 0:12:39.804 of that, because of the mac salary, often the top 0:12:39.804 --> 0:12:42.284 player you have is not only paid the most, but 0:12:42.324 --> 0:12:44.204 also worth quite a bit more than what you're paying 0:12:44.244 --> 0:12:48.004 them because of the dynamics I said before, which is 0:12:48.124 --> 0:12:51.844 so yes, I really really love good players and I 0:12:51.884 --> 0:12:55.284 can't get enough, and people talk about it, but the 0:12:55.324 --> 0:12:59.404 reality is, like USA basketball, what works? I mean, you know, 0:12:59.804 --> 0:13:02.604 if you get lots of highly skilled basketball players together, 0:13:03.364 --> 0:13:04.844 it generally works really well. 0:13:06.164 --> 0:13:09.924 How do you factor in kind of the uncertainty factor 0:13:09.964 --> 0:13:13.484 when you're in a game of individuals and champions, right 0:13:13.564 --> 0:13:18.044 when you're dealing with people who are superstars. How does 0:13:18.084 --> 0:13:20.284 your thinking work or do you just kind of not 0:13:20.324 --> 0:13:23.204 even think about it in terms of injury and that 0:13:23.404 --> 0:13:26.564 risk probability? Where right? If you actually, like if you 0:13:26.604 --> 0:13:31.044 invest everything in one superstar and like game one, shit happens, Like, 0:13:31.204 --> 0:13:32.404 how do you think about that. 0:13:32.324 --> 0:13:37.404 Because the superstar happens to be injury prone hypothetically hypothetical. 0:13:37.444 --> 0:13:40.804 Yeah, it's very analogous to the starting pitcher issue that 0:13:41.004 --> 0:13:45.644 baseball teams have. But just multiply it by ten again. Again, 0:13:46.204 --> 0:13:49.484 if we were trying to just be the fifth best team, 0:13:49.964 --> 0:13:54.604 then it would become a much harder problem because then 0:13:54.684 --> 0:13:57.924 the trade offs of injured superstar comes in. But because 0:13:57.964 --> 0:14:01.724 you're trying to be the best of thirty, you have 0:14:01.804 --> 0:14:04.084 to buy risk all over the place. And it's really 0:14:04.124 --> 0:14:05.844 just like what risk are you buying? Are you buying 0:14:05.924 --> 0:14:07.844 risks that they're not good enough, You're buying risks that 0:14:07.884 --> 0:14:10.564 they're bad people? And right off the court, are you 0:14:10.564 --> 0:14:12.604 buying risks that they're injured all the time, or are 0:14:12.644 --> 0:14:15.724 you buying risks that they're shot, might might fall apart? 0:14:15.764 --> 0:14:18.364 Like what what risk are you buying? Because if if 0:14:18.364 --> 0:14:20.684 you're not buying risks, you're not going to win, right 0:14:20.724 --> 0:14:23.364 you have, like beating the SMP by three to five 0:14:23.364 --> 0:14:26.404 percent is not winning you the title. So I tend 0:14:26.444 --> 0:14:30.964 to like buying injury risk because when if if it 0:14:31.084 --> 0:14:33.564 all hits together, you have a team that can win, 0:14:34.364 --> 0:14:37.724 I'll take I'll take that over a player who's twenty 0:14:37.764 --> 0:14:41.164 percent worse but available all the time. And I'm pretty 0:14:41.204 --> 0:14:44.484 sure the math depends out on that. 0:14:45.684 --> 0:14:49.204 You know, I tried that for my fantasy basketball league 0:14:49.284 --> 0:14:51.564 last year. I had Embiid, I had Persius, I had 0:14:51.644 --> 0:14:56.044 John Morant right Cade Cunningham, all these injury risks, and 0:14:56.084 --> 0:14:58.524 it totally felt in his face I was the worst 0:14:58.524 --> 0:14:59.924 team in the league so far. 0:15:00.004 --> 0:15:03.844 Because I can't believe, like you're arguing with the anecdote, Date, 0:15:03.924 --> 0:15:07.284 I can't can't believe it. Well, Nate, what has happened? 0:15:08.004 --> 0:15:11.804 You read Nate's book on the Edge, and and we 0:15:11.844 --> 0:15:14.844 talked about this on the podcast. But Nate bet over 0:15:14.964 --> 0:15:18.604 a million dollars on sports for for research in one year, 0:15:18.644 --> 0:15:20.924 and Nate, can you remind me how much you ended 0:15:20.964 --> 0:15:23.244 up winning at. 0:15:23.124 --> 0:15:26.044 One point eight million dollars on the NBA and this 0:15:26.084 --> 0:15:26.284 is not. 0:15:28.684 --> 0:15:30.724 He bet. He bet one point eight and how much 0:15:30.724 --> 0:15:31.204 did you win? 0:15:32.844 --> 0:15:35.724 Five k? So if you do the math, that roughly 0:15:35.764 --> 0:15:39.884 equates to per hour? Do you need to like working 0:15:39.924 --> 0:15:45.884 at KFCU after taxes and even before taxes? 0:15:46.004 --> 0:15:49.164 Yeah, Maria, how are your poker winning? Since you're getting 0:15:49.164 --> 0:15:53.444 on Nate for his UH for his UH sports wagery. 0:15:54.364 --> 0:15:57.884 They're good. They're good per hour. You're looking better than night. Okay, 0:15:57.884 --> 0:16:00.244 that's good, Yes they were, They're better than Nate. 0:16:00.924 --> 0:16:05.204 I had a horrible summer at the World Series during 0:16:05.204 --> 0:16:07.684 the Summer Series and was down over one hundred k, 0:16:08.004 --> 0:16:12.564 which is not good. And then went to EPT Barcelona 0:16:13.004 --> 0:16:15.084 where I had a score for almost one hundred and 0:16:15.124 --> 0:16:17.604 forty thousand, which put me in the black for the year, 0:16:18.124 --> 0:16:21.164 and then went on to you know when when the 0:16:21.204 --> 0:16:24.204 bracelet last week, have an eighth place finish in another 0:16:24.244 --> 0:16:28.524 bracelet event, so and I have a few other deep runs. 0:16:28.524 --> 0:16:31.484 So now I'm now I'm doing more than a five 0:16:31.644 --> 0:16:35.164 K in the black to be fair. To be fair, 0:16:35.804 --> 0:16:38.284 I don't think I've had one point eight million dollars 0:16:38.284 --> 0:16:41.284 in poker buy ins in my entire history of playing 0:16:41.284 --> 0:16:44.684 poker over the last five and a half years, however 0:16:44.684 --> 0:16:45.524 long I've been playing. 0:16:45.684 --> 0:16:48.404 So I'm just actually running a long con on poker 0:16:48.444 --> 0:16:50.124 on Nate. So we're going to do it. 0:16:50.324 --> 0:16:51.324 You're a hustler, Dearly. 0:16:51.404 --> 0:16:55.204 We're doing like we've done like ten events together, where 0:16:55.244 --> 0:16:57.164 he sees how aggressive I am, and then I'll just 0:16:57.204 --> 0:17:00.124 tighten up when he when he's shoving on me one 0:17:00.164 --> 0:17:01.444 of these times. 0:17:02.044 --> 0:17:06.284 Speaking of all in, you had a very aggressive strategy 0:17:07.404 --> 0:17:10.324 this summer where you cleared out all your salary cap 0:17:10.324 --> 0:17:13.364 space and then you traded for is a sign and trade. 0:17:13.364 --> 0:17:14.524 You just signed him out right. 0:17:14.484 --> 0:17:17.004 Just signed out right, Yeah, which is rare, super rare. 0:17:17.004 --> 0:17:23.364 Signed out right, which is rare. The superstar, our superstar 0:17:24.164 --> 0:17:27.884 adjacent player named Paul George. He's a two way player, 0:17:28.404 --> 0:17:29.564 superstar player. 0:17:29.444 --> 0:17:31.844 Top top, you know, he's top in the league. 0:17:31.884 --> 0:17:33.924 Come on, he's a very good player, Paul George, who 0:17:33.964 --> 0:17:40.604 compliments your existing roster. Well, I mean, did you think 0:17:40.644 --> 0:17:42.964 you had a reasonable chance of I want to get 0:17:42.964 --> 0:17:45.244 you in a tampering situation? What was Plan B if 0:17:45.284 --> 0:17:46.964 Paul George hadn't become available. 0:17:47.684 --> 0:17:52.284 Yeah, we didn't love Plan B. Well, to be to 0:17:52.324 --> 0:17:54.764 be clear, when we started off on that plan, there 0:17:54.804 --> 0:17:58.844 were several plan as they just you know there, you know, 0:17:58.884 --> 0:18:00.924 they sort of faded their A one, A two, A 0:18:01.004 --> 0:18:04.284 three or four, But they faded over time, as you know, 0:18:04.364 --> 0:18:07.684 different things happened, different trades, different happiness with team, things 0:18:07.724 --> 0:18:12.164 like that. We felt quite confident this was our best strategy, 0:18:12.204 --> 0:18:14.204 but I would say it's not to be recommended. I 0:18:14.244 --> 0:18:18.684 really don't think people have tried to like write, oh, 0:18:18.804 --> 0:18:21.244 this is like a new way to do things. I 0:18:21.284 --> 0:18:25.924 really don't think. So we we given our team, given 0:18:26.044 --> 0:18:28.444 how our contracts laid out when I came to Philly 0:18:28.484 --> 0:18:33.164 into twenty twenty, this we thought was the right approach. 0:18:34.164 --> 0:18:37.284 But it could have we would have been doing what 0:18:37.444 --> 0:18:39.564 I was talking about, like sort of a waiting move 0:18:39.844 --> 0:18:43.084 again if we were into Plan B, where we were 0:18:44.084 --> 0:18:46.844 doing moves that could be flexible down the road if 0:18:47.124 --> 0:18:49.724 the you know, the next Paul George became available. But 0:18:51.044 --> 0:18:54.484 this one, obviously there's just any move because you know, again, 0:18:54.564 --> 0:18:57.684 only one team wins. So the math is horrible. But 0:18:57.884 --> 0:19:00.284 we ended up sort of on the We ended up 0:19:00.324 --> 0:19:03.364 like we had sort of Maria's arc there. We had 0:19:03.364 --> 0:19:06.284 a last season was sort of our you know, we 0:19:06.364 --> 0:19:09.364 lost whatever we didn't we didn't have a great year, 0:19:09.644 --> 0:19:11.964 and then you know then we you know, sort of 0:19:12.084 --> 0:19:17.124 got the front office bracelet and that we were we 0:19:17.244 --> 0:19:18.684 hit on that sort of high end of what we 0:19:18.684 --> 0:19:19.724 were hoping to do this summer. 0:19:25.124 --> 0:19:26.284 We'll be back right after this. 0:19:42.004 --> 0:19:46.444 What are the incentives like for regular season versus maximizing 0:19:46.524 --> 0:19:51.444 championship potential? So you have a undoubted superstar Joel Embiid 0:19:53.124 --> 0:19:55.364 And you listen to all the NBA podcasts and they're like, 0:19:55.484 --> 0:19:59.044 we think that Joel embiid Is should rest more in 0:19:59.084 --> 0:20:01.044 the regular season. I mean, do you a do you 0:20:01.084 --> 0:20:06.124 have a plan and be philosophically, what are you trying 0:20:06.124 --> 0:20:08.684 to maximize? Because if you're bringing your thirteen year old 0:20:08.764 --> 0:20:10.964 daughter to the six game and buy some nice seats 0:20:11.004 --> 0:20:14.164 and and it's who's your backup, it's on Mobamba, who's 0:20:14.164 --> 0:20:17.964 your you know drummer? Come on, man, I mean you know, look, 0:20:19.044 --> 0:20:23.044 it's a drop off. I'd say excitement and right now, 0:20:23.964 --> 0:20:24.364 drop off. 0:20:24.364 --> 0:20:27.724 He keeps trying to do things like Joel in the preseason, 0:20:28.204 --> 0:20:31.564 which has had mixed mixed results. But we love we 0:20:31.604 --> 0:20:35.884 love Andre. He's definitely gonna buffet when Joel's out. Look, 0:20:35.924 --> 0:20:40.884 I mean, we definitely optimizing for the postseason. A lot 0:20:40.924 --> 0:20:43.964 of the analysis you see out there aren't isn't very 0:20:43.964 --> 0:20:48.764 well structured. They they do all these hyper correlated analysis, like, oh, 0:20:48.964 --> 0:20:53.644 teams in the top four, the ones that win, you know, well, yeah, 0:20:53.644 --> 0:20:56.644 if you happen to get if the Warriors had gone 0:20:56.684 --> 0:20:59.724 through a year when they had Kevin Durant where everyone 0:20:59.804 --> 0:21:01.804 was hurt, but then they're healthy for the postseason. I'm 0:21:01.804 --> 0:21:04.484 pretty sure they're going to make the finals or win 0:21:04.564 --> 0:21:08.884 it that year, so you know it for us, it's like, 0:21:09.444 --> 0:21:12.604 if there's one guiding principle, it's just it's the players stupid, 0:21:12.804 --> 0:21:17.204 Like it's just get the best players. And the analysis 0:21:17.404 --> 0:21:20.604 I talked about before of Shoho Tani it gets even 0:21:20.684 --> 0:21:23.644 more pronounced in the playoffs because players go from playing 0:21:23.724 --> 0:21:26.564 thirty to thirty five minutes to forty to forty five minutes. 0:21:28.284 --> 0:21:32.924 Rotations shrink, so all the impacts of star players actually 0:21:33.044 --> 0:21:36.524 again goes up. Superstar players are also the player Everyone 0:21:36.524 --> 0:21:38.524 gets worse in the playoffs. When I say everyone, I 0:21:38.564 --> 0:21:44.084 mean on average everyone some some get better, but in 0:21:44.164 --> 0:21:47.084 general everyone gets worse as the competition level goes up. 0:21:47.084 --> 0:21:50.724 But superstars drop the least, so they get they they 0:21:50.724 --> 0:21:53.284 don't fall as much as pretty much everyone else. 0:21:53.364 --> 0:21:57.764 So and there's not much advantage to I mean, if 0:21:57.804 --> 0:22:00.204 you start as a seven seed, then it's not actually 0:22:00.204 --> 0:22:01.924 that harmful, right. 0:22:01.844 --> 0:22:03.924 Seven has become a little more harmful because the plan, 0:22:04.124 --> 0:22:07.084 oh you're in the plane, yeah, so six six is 0:22:07.204 --> 0:22:10.844 fine because yes, you know in game series where you're 0:22:10.924 --> 0:22:13.964 one more on the one more on the road it 0:22:14.004 --> 0:22:16.404 turns out to be not I think that's a pretty 0:22:16.404 --> 0:22:18.564 small swing in percentage of think it's like two to 0:22:18.604 --> 0:22:20.204 three percent. It's not massive. 0:22:21.204 --> 0:22:29.004 Why did the NBA get religion on analytics before after baseball, 0:22:29.204 --> 0:22:30.524 I suppose, but maybe not that much. 0:22:30.564 --> 0:22:33.124 In oh, I think even at the league level, I 0:22:33.124 --> 0:22:36.844 think before they were the first to do a lot 0:22:36.884 --> 0:22:39.444