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Speaker 1: got about a ten minute rant before we get to
Speaker 1: Sharper Square, which is a good one. This week. We
Speaker 1: have some theories that Chad Melman of the Action Network
Speaker 1: and I go back and forth on one regarding Jordan
Speaker 1: Love of the Green Bay Packers. So a really good
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five minute Sharper Square with Chad Melman. So,
Speaker 1: you know, how do you define a franchise quarterback? Tonight?
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence is a franchise quarterback. Doesn't practice all week,
Speaker 1: bad knee, facing a better defense Saints than Derek Carr
Speaker 1: faces in the Jacks. He's on the road, one of
Speaker 1: the louder stadiums. Trevor Lawrence, unlike Carr, doesn't make the
Speaker 1: big mistake, doesn't have a pick six. A very tidy
Speaker 1: twenty for twenty nine, two hundred and four yards, sixty
Speaker 1: yards rushing and a touchdown on the road against the
Speaker 1: better defense. Did not practice. That's a franchise quarterback. It's
Speaker 1: not having to play great, it's just making enough plays
Speaker 1: to win a road game when you don't practice all week.
Speaker 1: Derek Carr at home has Alvin Kamara arguably the best
Speaker 1: player in the game. A lave Michael Thomas. Derek Carr's
Speaker 1: line a less efficient thirty three of fifty five of
Speaker 1: pick six, one touchdown. The offense was essentially Alvin Kamara
Speaker 1: seventeen carries and twelve catches. Think about that, twenty nine
Speaker 1: times he touched the ball. Oh, running backs, The life
Speaker 1: of a running back. I am not anti Derek Carr,
Speaker 1: but when Derek Carr was in Vegas or Oakland, he
Speaker 1: was almost a sympathetic figure. Right, weird ownership, kooky organization,
Speaker 1: Al Davis into his son, and so when you watched him,
Speaker 1: team had to move to Vegas. When you watched Derek Carr,
Speaker 1: he was almost a sympathetic figure. You know, if he
Speaker 1: could only get a good defense, a star back, a
Speaker 1: couple of great weapons, a functional, stable ownership group, a
Speaker 1: weaker conference, a wait, a weaker division. O. Wait, he
Speaker 1: got all of them with the Saints, and it feels
Speaker 1: like he's standing in the way of success. Weaker division,
Speaker 1: Nomah Holmes, Herbert twice a year, weaker conference, better defense,
Speaker 1: more functional ownership, one of the top gms, Mickey Loomis
Speaker 1: in the league. Two star receivers, star back, and at
Speaker 1: least a good run blocking line. I don't know if
Speaker 1: they're a good pass blocking line the Saints, but a
Speaker 1: pretty good run blocking line. And he's at home facing
Speaker 1: a quarterback who didn't practice and loses. And years ago,
Speaker 1: Raider fans just would relentlessly call me out when I
Speaker 1: would say, you know, I think Derek Carr is about
Speaker 1: the twelfth best quarterback in the league. He's around that
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott level. And I really did believe that. But
Speaker 1: what's happened is Derek's not in his prime. He's just
Speaker 1: out of it, and the league's gotten better at quarterback.
Speaker 1: There's just five or six guys that weren't around five
Speaker 1: years ago. And if you right now look at the
Speaker 1: top ten quarterbacks in the league, and I would say Mahomes,
Speaker 1: Allen Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Stafford, Hurtz, Trevor, Lawrence Goff,
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. I'll put in there too. Those are ten.
Speaker 1: I would take Kyler, Murray, Dak and Tua above Derek Carr.
Speaker 1: And I watched them play against c J. Stroud last
Speaker 1: week and I thought c J. Stroud was a better
Speaker 1: distributor of the ball, a more accurate thrower, and played
Speaker 1: with more confidence. So now he's the fifteenth best quarterback
Speaker 1: Derek Carr in the league. And he got the bag,
Speaker 1: which is going to limit for the next couple of
Speaker 1: years what the Saints can do in free agency. And
Speaker 1: I was talking about this on FS one today. If
Speaker 1: you're questioning whether you should give your quarterback big money,
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, you know, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo,
Speaker 1: ask yourself, this would at least half the league, and
Speaker 1: preferably over half the league make a call on them.
Speaker 1: No for Garoppolo, Tannehill, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. Derek
Speaker 1: Carr had a market of about three teams, that's it.
Speaker 1: And Herbert would have twenty two, Allen would have twenty eight.
Speaker 1: Mahomes would have everybody except Kansas City make a call,
Speaker 1: right that's the difference. The market tells you how good
Speaker 1: your quarterback is. It's what I've said about Tua. Tua's
Speaker 1: market would be about six seven teams. Let's say I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: double it to twelve. It's still not enough. You got
Speaker 1: ten bad quarterbacks in the league and ten okay quarterbacks
Speaker 1: in the league, right, and then ten to twelve guys
Speaker 1: we kind of rt like and really about six we
Speaker 1: love maybe seven. So I mean, that's the mistake the
Speaker 1: Saints made. Now. They were a little desperate. Taysom Hill
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like a franchise guy. Jamis Winston, Drew Brees left,
Speaker 1: so Sean Payton left, so you're looking for some stability
Speaker 1: with Derek Carr and I like him, but right now
Speaker 1: I feel like he's about the fifteenth best quarterback in
Speaker 1: the league, losing it home to a court back that
Speaker 1: didn't practice with a better defense. The best player on
Speaker 1: the field probably Alvin Kamara, lave Michael Thomas and had
Speaker 1: one great drive. It's not being critical, just being honest
Speaker 1: about it. So when you look at the Saints now,
Speaker 1: you know there's going to be a lot of decisions
Speaker 1: in this league. Do you pay a guy or not
Speaker 1: people in Chicago or backing Justin Fields. Would over half
Speaker 1: the league call on Justin Fields? Absolutely not. He's probably
Speaker 1: not the guy, right, doesn't mean he doesn't have talent.
Speaker 1: And I think there would be four or five teams
Speaker 1: that would call on Justin Fields today, maybe six, maybe eight.
Speaker 1: But look at it. If it's not over half the
Speaker 1: league last ten years, you're probably spending too much money
Speaker 1: on that quarterback. And that's how I feel about the
Speaker 1: Saints and Derek Carr. So there's been this story, a
Speaker 1: rumor out there about the Michigan State job now Michigan
Speaker 1: State Athletics, between the mel Tucker mess and another coach
Speaker 1: in their organization that did some criminal things. The brand's
Speaker 1: gross right now, and so there's been talk about, like,
Speaker 1: you know, would Urban Meyer go to Michigan State? And
Speaker 1: the most attractive thing about Michigan State football is that
Speaker 1: the word Michigan, isn't it right? That's how big the
Speaker 1: Wolverines brand is. So as the PAC twelve's four best
Speaker 1: football programs four of five, Utah is better than u CLA,
Speaker 1: but I would say USC, Washington, Oregon. Historically, those are
Speaker 1: the best last twenty years programs in that conference. Are
Speaker 1: joining the Big Ten Conference. So Michigan State is not
Speaker 1: Ohio State. It's not Michigan, it's not Penn State, it's
Speaker 1: not Oregon. Go look at their last twenty years. Washington,
Speaker 1: who is a top ten program every time they get
Speaker 1: the right coach, and it's not usc with six or
Speaker 1: seven national titles. You can argue it's UCLA. I don't
Speaker 1: think it is, but it's an argument. Nick Saban couldn't
Speaker 1: win at Michigan State, Chris Peterson, Don James Rick Neuheisel,
Speaker 1: and the current Huskies coach Caitlin n Boor winning big
Speaker 1: at Washington, so it's not Washington. So at best, it
Speaker 1: would be the seventh best program in the Big Ten.
Speaker 1: And I would take the Wisconsin job over Michigan State
Speaker 1: just because right now, I wouldn't mind if I was
Speaker 1: a coach attaching my brand to Wisconsin's cleaner brand. That
Speaker 1: makes it the eighth best job at best in the
Speaker 1: Big Ten. I don't have this sourced, but why in
Speaker 1: the world would Urban Meyer, who has paid over forty
Speaker 1: million dollars to not coach the Jaguars, leave Sarasota, Florida
Speaker 1: for that? I wouldn't. I think that would be if
Speaker 1: you're his agent and recommended that you get a new agent.
Speaker 1: Now he may take the job. Money talks. Somebody offers
Speaker 1: him a hundred million dollars. But when I hear rumors
Speaker 1: about that, I think to myself, the best part about
Speaker 1: Michigan State is the word Michigan's in it. General rule,
Speaker 1: don't take the Auburn job. Take the Alabama job, right,
Speaker 1: Don't take the UCLA football job, take the usc job.
Speaker 1: Don't take the Oklahoma State job. Take the Oklahoma job.
Speaker 1: Take big brother, not little brother.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Chad Milman comes on a lot to talk about a
Speaker 1: lot of different things. To talk about the NFL season.
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Speaker 1: crown is yours all right, Time for another edition Sharper Square.
Speaker 1: It's the CEO of the Action Network, Chad Millman. My
Speaker 1: buddy O odds provided by Draft Kings. So Warren Sharp
Speaker 1: sent me something over the week that was really fascinating.
Speaker 1: Underdogs are not doing well this year, and Warren Sharp
Speaker 1: not only theorizes but indicates that the holding calls defensively
Speaker 1: have gone down sharply. And so when you look at
Speaker 1: the numbers of the holding calls defensively, it's now understood
Speaker 1: that you're allowed to grab receivers down the field. It's
Speaker 1: just understood. It was not three years ago that was
Speaker 1: we would all as fans go, that's a penalty. Now
Speaker 1: you can do it while the ball's in the air.
Speaker 1: If it's not, you know, lurching at the player and
Speaker 1: disrupting him. And so what does that mean. My theory
Speaker 1: is that that will punitively punish the mediocre to below
Speaker 1: average quarterbacks. Daniel Jones can't even get a touchdown this month.
Speaker 1: So the Tannehills, the Daniel Jones, the backups, the gap
Speaker 1: between starters and stars and backups Tannehill and Mahomes. Now
Speaker 1: five years ago he could be competitive. The gap now
Speaker 1: between Daniel Jones and Mahomes. It's like junior varsity. Varsity
Speaker 1: underdogs are not covering the best quarterback. If Baker is
Speaker 1: better than Derek Carr, and I think he is, leads
Speaker 1: already leads in seven divisions. The exception has brought pretty.
Speaker 1: He's not as good as Stafford, but he's better than
Speaker 1: Arizona's backup and arguably better than Geno Smith. So my
Speaker 1: point being is, I've always been a fan of underdogs,
Speaker 1: but increasingly this year, my winning bets are on superior
Speaker 1: quarterbacks covering and Warren Sharp detailing. Now, this is really
Speaker 1: hurting scorings down, but there are more blowouts in two
Speaker 1: years than we've ever had, and the scoring is declining
Speaker 1: even for Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore. And so I look
Speaker 1: at my bets this week and I think I wouldn't
Speaker 1: have made these bets a year ago. But I'll throw
Speaker 1: one at you Ravens minus three at home against the Lions.
Speaker 1: So I watched Baltimore. I thought their first half against
Speaker 1: Tennessee was the single most impressive half of the season
Speaker 1: by a quarterback in any game. I thought Lamar was spectacular.
Speaker 1: Detroit has been on a little bit of a streak.
Speaker 1: They've won on the road. This is a whole different ballgame.
Speaker 1: Baltimore is one of the hardest places to play. I
Speaker 1: still think the Ravens, I told you last week it
Speaker 1: was my favorite bet are undervalued. So again plus three
Speaker 1: Detroit hot would have been my pick. I'm going to
Speaker 1: go Baltimore minus three sharper square.
Speaker 3: So it's definitely sharp. Speaking of I think I think
Speaker 3: Warren's uh sort of inclination about the holding penalties is interesting.
Speaker 3: But you could also argue that teams that are underdogs
Speaker 3: aren't covering because not because there's holding calls, but because
Speaker 3: quarterbacks haven't been making plays. Just look this past weekend.
Speaker 3: How many downfield throws that could have made a difference
Speaker 3: did Baker miss? How many downfield throws that could have
Speaker 3: made a huge difference to Justin Herbert miss. I think
Speaker 3: there's a combination of a lot of things that are
Speaker 3: impacting some of these games. Some of them are sort
Speaker 3: of factors that are are not repeatable. Some of them
Speaker 3: are a regression, some of them are things that are
Speaker 3: going to be patterns. Certainly, offense is down considerably and.
Speaker 1: Sacks are up, by the way, so on line players,
Speaker 1: so media with pressure and defensive holding, like, the sacks
Speaker 1: are way up. So if you can escape it, you're okay.
Speaker 2: This year.
Speaker 3: I think right now, the average yards per attempt, yards
Speaker 3: per completion, it's something like ten point six. It's amongst
Speaker 3: the lowest and in the modern.
Speaker 2: Era of the NFL.
Speaker 3: So certainly defenses are on the up and offenses are
Speaker 3: leveling out, which probably means when the Competition Committee meets
Speaker 3: in the spring, they will figure out a way to
Speaker 3: make it easier for.
Speaker 2: Offenses to score the football.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 3: But to your point about the Ravens, yeah, it's the
Speaker 3: sharp side. The line opened to two and a half.
Speaker 3: Everybody believes the Lions are way over valued. You're talking
Speaker 3: about a team that was eleven to one to win
Speaker 3: the NFC before the season began. They're now down to
Speaker 3: six to one, just behind the Dallas Cowboys and obviously
Speaker 3: the Niners and the Eagles. And you have to take
Speaker 3: a look for a second at who the Lions have beaten, right,
Speaker 3: the Panthers, the Bucks. They have not beaten very good teams,
Speaker 3: the Packers, and meanwhile the Ravens. A they scored twenty
Speaker 3: eight points against the Cleveland Browns, which is an historically
Speaker 3: great defense. And your point about Lamar is spot on.
Speaker 3: Like they've been red zone inefficient in certain games. That
Speaker 3: game against the Steelers they should have won. We talked
Speaker 3: about this last week. A lot of drop passes that
Speaker 3: would have made the difference and put the game away.
Speaker 3: He's actually playing really well. And Lamar, when he is
Speaker 3: a short favorite, is actually very very good against the spread.
Speaker 3: Bigger favorite, not so much short favorite.
Speaker 2: I like it. Wise, guys like it.
Speaker 1: You're sharp all right, Browns minus two and a half.
Speaker 1: It is a staggeringly good defense. And I think San
Speaker 1: Francisco settling for field goals should have made him but
Speaker 1: missed him. And this is a team that is loaded
Speaker 1: with weapons, a brilliant head coach. Now, yes it's on
Speaker 1: the road, but backup quarterbacks or backups for a reason.
Speaker 1: If I said this last week, you know Gardner Minshew,
Speaker 1: the analytics said take Colts against right, the Jags the
Speaker 1: better quarterback at home. So I don't love the quarterback
Speaker 1: situation for Cleveland. I do not trust a backup quarterback
Speaker 1: against this defense. I think Cleveland's for real. I may
Speaker 1: be disgusted by Deshaun Watson, he still may play. But
Speaker 1: if this is three, I pass at two and a half.
Speaker 1: This is a playoff level, elite defense. I'd take it
Speaker 1: sharper square.
Speaker 3: A little trappy, Colin, here's the challenge. I agree with
Speaker 3: you about Gardner Minshew. When I was taking notes on
Speaker 3: the games last weekend, one of the notes that I
Speaker 3: took was have the shoes fallen off? Is Cinderella no
Speaker 3: longer Cinderella? And Gardner Minshew because in the games that
Speaker 3: he had been playing for Anthony Richardson, he had been winning,
Speaker 3: he had been covering, he had been playing, unlike Gardner Minshew,
Speaker 3: who had gone winless for so long last week a
Speaker 3: lot of bad turnovers, turnovers that took them out of
Speaker 3: that game from the very beginning. Meanwhile, you get the
Speaker 3: Browns at home backup quarterback. They just beat the team
Speaker 3: that everybody thought was the best team in the NFL,
Speaker 3: that had just beaten up on the Cowboys in an
Speaker 3: embarrassing fashion that Catapult had brought Purdy to be seven
Speaker 3: to one to win the MVP in the NFL. That's
Speaker 3: overvalue City man versus a team at home that is
Speaker 3: entirely undervalued because of how badly they played and because
Speaker 3: of Gardner Minshew. Honestly, for me, it's a pass like
Speaker 3: I want nothing to do with this game. So if
Speaker 3: you want to play it, buy or beware.
Speaker 1: Eagles minus two and a half. Another favorite, hosting Miami.
Speaker 1: I think Miami, I've got a pretty good read. They're
Speaker 1: a heavy weight with a glass chin. If you punch
Speaker 1: them back, can get a rush with four. They fold
Speaker 1: pretty quickly. Lane Johnson should play. That's a more comfortable
Speaker 1: quarterback against the less comfortable quarterback. Miami will score. But
Speaker 1: if you look at their defensive front for Miami and
Speaker 1: the offensive front of Lane Johnson plays, this could be
Speaker 1: ball control. I'minan I'm gonna take for the record, Philadelphia
Speaker 1: night game at home. Watch the Phillies games lately, like
Speaker 1: it's just different. I'm gonna take Eagles minus two and
Speaker 1: a half. Sharper square totally sharp throughth is. This line
Speaker 1: opened at one and a half and moved up to two.
Speaker 1: Now it's a two and a half. It is a
Speaker 1: pros Joe's game, right. The wise guys are one hundred
Speaker 1: percent on the Eagles. The Joe's the amateurs, the squares
Speaker 1: they are on the Dolphins.
Speaker 2: And you mentioned a couple.
Speaker 3: You mentioned two things that are really important here. One,
Speaker 3: Lane Johnson, if he plays, this is a significantly different team.
Speaker 2: When he doesn't.
Speaker 3: I think they're ten and twenty two without Lane Johnson,
Speaker 3: and when he plays, they're a super Bowl caliber team. Two,
Speaker 3: Jalen hurts against pressure not so good. Jalen hurts when
Speaker 3: he's not against pressure with teams that can't pressure him
Speaker 3: more than forty percent of the time. I think he's
Speaker 3: twenty and five in his career. So you're talking about
Speaker 3: a Miami Dolphins team that is not great at pressuring
Speaker 3: the quarterback, and you're talking about an Eagles team that
Speaker 3: is coming off a loss that they were headed for.
Speaker 3: You and I have talked about this, like, the Eagles
Speaker 3: have been winning because they have a really good head coach,
Speaker 3: they have a really good quarterback, they have really good
Speaker 3: weapons on the edges, but they haven't been gelling offensively
Speaker 3: at all. And also last week, Jalen Carter didn't play right.
Speaker 3: He was resting, so this week he should be back
Speaker 3: on defense. And the Eagles had that moment like, Okay,
Speaker 3: we've been stealing wins. We were embarrassed by the Jets.
Speaker 3: We understand better now what we need to do. We're
Speaker 3: going to come back because that's who we are. The
Speaker 3: wise guys are on the Eagles.
Speaker 1: One more favorite I think I would take. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure I love it, but I'm going to wait for
Speaker 1: the injury report. Minnesota is just not that good. I
Speaker 1: hear about how unlucky they are. Maybe that's not the issue.
Speaker 1: Forty nine ers off a loss are a really good
Speaker 1: football team. Minnesota is not. I don't think it's a
Speaker 1: great locker room. I don't think I don't think they
Speaker 1: create pressure situations for offenses. I think San Francisco will
Speaker 1: control the ball at some point. If you do something
Speaker 1: five or six weeks in a row, you're not unlucky.
Speaker 1: It's who you are. And I don't think Minnesota is
Speaker 1: very good. I think quietly in the building they're moving
Speaker 1: off Cousins. They moved off to Alvin Cook. I don't
Speaker 1: think it's I just I don't love this team. I'm
Speaker 1: going to take the Niners minus six and a half.
Speaker 1: Sharper square.
Speaker 3: You are who your record says you are. Didn't some
Speaker 3: brilliant coach say that one will ourselves. The Vikings are
Speaker 3: not a very good football team. They weren't very good
Speaker 3: last week against a terrible team and the Bears. The
Speaker 3: only reason they won that game is because a second
Speaker 3: string quarterback who's a rookie who had never played, came
Speaker 3: in off the bench, fumbled scoop and score for the Vikings.
Speaker 3: That was the difference in the game. Otherwise the Bears
Speaker 3: with a backup quarterback win that game. Right, And so
Speaker 3: this has been the center on the Vikings all year.
Speaker 3: People were fading the Vikings. They did not expect them
Speaker 3: to win at the rate they did last year. There
Speaker 3: was gonna be a regression because of how many one
Speaker 3: score games they won. This line has moved up from
Speaker 3: six and a half it did seven. The wise guys
Speaker 3: are hesitant to come in on big road favorites, but
Speaker 3: in this case they are aligned with you.
Speaker 1: All right, here's my one dog I don't love the
Speaker 1: slate this week for dogs Chargers plus five and a
Speaker 1: half at Kansas City listen, they're in close games, they're
Speaker 1: a good team. I don't love them situationally. If it's close,
Speaker 1: I'll take Andy Reid. But I think their personnel matches
Speaker 1: up very well with Kansas City. It has with Anthony Linn,
Speaker 1: it has with Brandon Staley. This feels like kind of
Speaker 1: a gimme. I don't ever love the Chiefs as a favorite.
Speaker 1: They're not a high fire power team. Now, they did
Speaker 1: get their receiver back from the Jets, but it'll take
Speaker 1: probably a couple of weeks to get him right situated.
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Chargers plus five and a
Speaker 1: half sharper.
Speaker 3: Square, totally sharp, and Look, this is one of the
Speaker 3: those games that's really interesting, right because you're talking about
Speaker 3: it from multiple levels. Are you talking about what you're
Speaker 3: seeing on the field. Check, you're going to take the Chargers.
Speaker 3: Are you talking about what you see historically between these
Speaker 3: two teams. Check, you're going to take the Chargers. Are
Speaker 3: you talking about what you would see between two teams
Speaker 3: in the division?
Speaker 2: Check you're going to take the Chargers.
Speaker 3: Are you talking about what you would see from Patrick
Speaker 3: Mahomes as a favorite of more than three points? Check
Speaker 3: you're going to take the Chargers. So let's start at
Speaker 3: the beginning. What you're seeing on the field. Justin Herbert
Speaker 3: has lost games by six or more points three times
Speaker 3: in the past twenty three games. He keeps the games close.
Speaker 3: Their disadvantage is they have a terrible coach who does
Speaker 3: not put them in a winning position and makes the
Speaker 3: most inconsistent, awful decisions at the worst possible time for
Speaker 3: this team to win. He just does right. So you've
Speaker 3: got that moving against them. But it's also be the
Speaker 3: talent is so good. Between what they have in the
Speaker 3: edge is what they have defensively, what they have with
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert, they can stay in games two. The games
Speaker 3: between these two teams are always close, right. Justin Herbert
Speaker 3: has never not covered a six point spread. There was
Speaker 3: one push because they went to overtime and they lost
Speaker 3: by six points in overtime. So it's a great matchup
Speaker 3: for these two teams. The Chiefs offense has not been gelling.
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes has now found the right rhythm with his
Speaker 3: receiver Jet And then you're talking about teams in the
Speaker 3: division in this scenario. Over the past twenty years, underdogs
Speaker 3: have covered sixty there sixty games above five hundred covering
Speaker 3: a number like this in the division. Meanwhile, the home
Speaker 3: team covers at a forty seven percent rate in this
Speaker 3: position when they are favorites. When they are favorites of
Speaker 3: three or more, it moves down to forty four percent.
Speaker 3: And finally, Mahomes as a favorite of three and a
Speaker 3: half or more, is far below five hundred because oftentimes
Speaker 3: his favorite, when he's a favorite, he's a favorite of
Speaker 3: so many points, it's an impossible to cover. So in
Speaker 3: every way, whether it's a trend, whether it's on the field,
Speaker 3: whether it's a system.
Speaker 2: The wise guys like the Chargers.
Speaker 1: Okay, now I ask you for a game to convince me,
Speaker 1: and then a game I missed Green Bay. Denver's fascinating.
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones comes back. I feel like there are limitations
Speaker 1: to Jordan love. But it's a good locker room. It's
Speaker 1: full of hope. I have a lot of continuity with Denver.
Speaker 1: I don't know what the identity is. I don't like
Speaker 1: the locker room. I don't think they do anything well.
Speaker 1: I do think the Packers do some things well. I
Speaker 1: would tend to lean all of our odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: I don't know what is it now minus one? Green Bay?
Speaker 1: Is green Bay plus one minus one?
Speaker 2: I would lean down to minus one?
Speaker 1: Okay, I would lean green Bay. What's sharper square?
Speaker 2: The wise guys are on the Broncos.
Speaker 3: This game opened to two, it's moved down to one.
Speaker 3: It's ugly. They don't love the Broncos. Look their defense
Speaker 3: played a little bit better against the Chiefs. The bigger
Speaker 3: challenges should Jordan Love as a rookie who's played what
Speaker 3: five games as a starter consecutively, who looked good at
Speaker 3: the first couple of games, but has really been missing
Speaker 3: a lot of open targets. And as much as Matt
Speaker 3: Lafleur is scheming to get him open targets, if he
Speaker 3: can't hit the targets, then you can't cover the game.
Speaker 3: So now he's going on the road as a favorite.
Speaker 3: There couldn't be less interests. There couldn't be a team
Speaker 3: more undervalued than the Broncos. Because while Sean Payton has
Speaker 3: been making Russell Wilson look brilliant in the first couple
Speaker 3: of drives of every game, he kind of craters after that.
Speaker 3: So a lot of fading of Russell Wilson. I think
Speaker 3: the biggest fear of the wise guys have in betting
Speaker 3: the Broncos, which is the side their betting is from
Speaker 3: now through the end of the year.
Speaker 2: Are they just going to tank?
Speaker 3: Are they getting tank and try to get Caleb Williams
Speaker 3: and compete with the Bears or the Panthers for that
Speaker 3: number one overall?
Speaker 1: Pa?
Speaker 3: Because which the Bears get the Panthers, by the way,
Speaker 3: because he's got to look at this team and realize,
Speaker 3: we don't have any talent. Our receivers can't get separation,
Speaker 3: our quarterback can barely get plays called. He doesn't know
Speaker 3: what he's doing to get the ball deep like it's
Speaker 3: it's a pretty nasty situation there. But they're taking the Bromos.
Speaker 1: And finally, an ugly game, a game I missed, A
Speaker 1: game that you really have a strong opinion about, are
Speaker 1: feeling about, but I just didn't discuss.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, Colin, remember last week, I'm like, do
Speaker 3: me a favor, you want to win take the Jets
Speaker 3: plus seven against the team?
Speaker 1: No, no, no, that wasn't ugly. I that was the
Speaker 1: one blazing five. I should have gone three and two.
Speaker 1: I went two and three. I liked that bet. I
Speaker 1: didn't take it. It was my last bet the Jets
Speaker 1: the last two weeks against the Broncos and Eagles was
Speaker 1: my last bet out. So I like the Jets back
Speaker 1: to back week, so that was a good pick. It
Speaker 1: made a lot of sense.
Speaker 3: I also wanted you take the Browns, which was a
Speaker 3: better pick and made a lot of sense and won.
Speaker 3: So here's what I'm going to ask you to do.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna I'm not the kind of guy Colin
Speaker 3: who rubs people's nose in their mistakes. That's not what
Speaker 3: I do. Okay, here's what I want you to consider.
Speaker 3: Can I interest you in the New York Giants plus
Speaker 3: two plus two and a half hosting the Washington Commanders.
Speaker 3: So consider what I just said about the Chargers and
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the underdogs historically being the advantage in
Speaker 3: that situation. And then consider Tyrod Taylor, who, by the way,
Speaker 3: has one of the lowest interception percentages based on the
Speaker 3: number of games minimum attempts anybody in NFL history. And
Speaker 3: then account for the fact that the offensive line played
Speaker 3: a little bit better and the defense played a little
Speaker 3: bit better against the Bills.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: So, now, all of a sudden, you've got a Washington
Speaker 3: team that really they should have lost to Atlanta, like
Speaker 3: they were outplayed in every respect in that game. And
Speaker 3: to me, there's a two pronged thing here. One, I
Speaker 3: kind of like Atlanta as an underdog against Tampa for
Speaker 3: all the same intradivisional reasons that I've talked about. And
Speaker 3: also I think they were incredibly unlucky in that game,
Speaker 3: with some regression coming because Desmond Ritter made so many mistakes,
Speaker 3: but also that highlighted Washington and then made them overvalued. Look,
Speaker 3: they've won some games, but they haven't won well, they
Speaker 3: haven't been good. They lost to the Bears by twenty points,
Speaker 3: so I don't know. I think the Giants are going to.
Speaker 2: Be the side that the wise guys like. This week.
Speaker 1: I thought most of the lines like I think Seattle
Speaker 1: hosting the Cardinals. I thought, initially if it was six
Speaker 1: and a half, I really like Seattle. I think people
Speaker 1: have figured out Arizona. So it's seven. So if Blazing
Speaker 1: five was on Monday, I would have taken Seattle. Now
Speaker 1: the numbers not good. My question is if it's seven,
Speaker 1: so you take Seattle seven and a half, you don't seven,
Speaker 1: do you? No?
Speaker 3: No, no, I agree with you, and I think what
Speaker 3: happened with Arizona is like it's another sort of Cinderella
Speaker 3: story where the shine has come off a.
Speaker 1: Little bit and people, we know what.
Speaker 2: They figured that out right, And.
Speaker 3: Honestly, the biggest challenge for them they lost James Connor.
Speaker 3: Like he was bull rushing over everybody, right, and he
Speaker 3: was really powering their offense. And without him, they really
Speaker 3: don't have any weapons that scare anybody. So to me,
Speaker 3: seven is a pass. If you could have gotten itto
Speaker 3: six and a half, you know, like you could still
Speaker 3: get San Francisco, you can get it at six and
Speaker 3: a half. I think those are the two sort of
Speaker 3: bigger favorites. The other game that's really interesting and this
Speaker 3: one is like, remember for years we've been doing segments
Speaker 3: like this together and every year I'm telling you you
Speaker 3: got to take the Jags when they were terrible.
Speaker 2: It's they're plus.
Speaker 3: Thirteen and a half on the road. You got to
Speaker 3: take the Jags. That's what the wise guys are going
Speaker 3: to do. The New England Patriots had become the jack.
Speaker 1: I can't I told you I can't. When I can't
Speaker 1: watch a team, I can't bet him.
Speaker 3: So you can watch the Green Bay Denver.
Speaker 1: Game fascinated by Sean Payton and Russell Wilson fascinated And
Speaker 1: is Jordan Love gonna make it or not? If Jordan
Speaker 1: Love is a lousy Sunday we have to be honest
Speaker 1: here sitting for three years completing fifty five percent of
Speaker 1: his throws with Matt Lafleur. If he can't move the ball,
Speaker 1: we got a white flag thing here, like you can't
Speaker 1: keep defending him. So that game's got a lot like
Speaker 1: we know Russell's not gonna last. But if Jordan Love struggles,
Speaker 1: you cannot sit there by the way, C J. Stroud,
Speaker 1: no offensive lineman, can't run rookie play caler rookie coach
Speaker 1: game one good. He can't be in a place four
Speaker 1: years and complete fifty five percent of your throws. I
Speaker 1: don't want to hear about Kristin Watson's not available. Give
Speaker 1: me a break. So, I mean, I think that game
Speaker 1: is actually whatever the word is the French word for
Speaker 1: so ugly. It's attractive, that's greed bay better.
Speaker 3: You know it's interesting. So I come from a startup
Speaker 3: culture with Action Network, right, you're building a really valuable, strong,
Speaker 3: incredible business with the volume. Yeah, if you're in a
Speaker 3: venture backed business. One of the best phrases I ever
Speaker 3: heard some of the folks who helped to who bankrolled
Speaker 3: Action when we started, is are you being intellectually honest
Speaker 3: about what you're looking at? Meaning? Can you look at
Speaker 3: the data? Can you make a decision not based on
Speaker 3: what you want it to be, not based on what
Speaker 3: you think it could be if X factors hadn't impacted
Speaker 3: the numbers. It's like, can you look at the numbers?
Speaker 3: Can you say, Okay, this is what's happening, and then
Speaker 3: can you make decisions about the business going forward based
Speaker 3: on those numbers, regardless of your input into deciding how
Speaker 3: you got to that point or if it's going against
Speaker 3: what you believed it should be. Same goes if it's
Speaker 3: going well, Like can you be intellectually honest about examining
Speaker 3: what you see in front of you? Can the packers
Speaker 3: be intellectually honest about Jordan Love if he continues to
Speaker 3: be a fifty five percent completion rate pastor who who
Speaker 3: misses open looks?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think you know my favorite saying.
Speaker 1: By the way, you mentioned your favorite saying, it was
Speaker 1: so funny somebody the other day, I have a plaque
Speaker 1: in my office and they saw the plaque and they
Speaker 1: got all excited, like orders. You get that amateurs chase
Speaker 1: the sun and get burned. Power stays in the shadows.
Speaker 1: That the smartest people are strategic. The amateurs want to
Speaker 1: get noticed and get headlines. The smart people do all
Speaker 1: their business behind the scenes. And I don't know why
Speaker 1: I brought that up apropos of nothing. I do think
Speaker 1: Green Bay they're decent people. And the problem sometimes you know,
Speaker 1: there's a reason there's a lot of money in New
Speaker 1: York and in Wall Street and in tech world. People
Speaker 1: are harsh and they're brutal. And I don't think the
Speaker 1: Steelers could move off Kenny Pickett for three years because
Speaker 1: he's a Pittsburgh kid, because it's the decency of the Rooneys.
Speaker 1: And I think Green Bay is going to stick with
Speaker 1: Jordan Love because that's what good people do. They give
Speaker 1: young people a chance. And I think Pittsburgh and green
Speaker 1: Bay this solid foundationally respectful. They're always looking for value.
Speaker 1: They're the guy at a nightclub wearing Dockers. They're not cool,
Speaker 1: but they're probably the richest guy in the room. And
Speaker 1: I don't think the Steelers can be honest about Kenny Pickett,
Speaker 1: and I don't think the Packers for a year or two.
Speaker 1: And by the way, if i'm both, I'm drafted a
Speaker 1: quarterback this year, not first or second third round quarterback.
Speaker 1: I just want somebody in the room to compete with them.
Speaker 1: There's plenty of talent. But I do think sometimes what's
Speaker 1: hurt Green Bay in Pittsburgh is this unwillingness to just
Speaker 1: be harsh and harsh in our businesses. Sometimes it works
Speaker 1: like I've got to make a horribly hard decision, You're fired.
Speaker 1: It sucks, but it sometimes it's what's needed in professional football.
Speaker 1: Like Bill Belichick, Bill will Bill, your statue, your tone deaf.
Speaker 1: We got to get off Bill Belichick. That seems incredibly hard.
Speaker 1: But Philadelphia fired Andy Reid, the Cowboys fired Tom Landry.
Speaker 1: You know what, Both the Eagles and the Cowboys did
Speaker 1: just fine. And we both love Andy Reid. So I
Speaker 1: think the Jordan Love question is do they have the
Speaker 1: stomach for it. I don't know if they do.
Speaker 3: It's a hard it's a hard question to answer, and
Speaker 3: after five games of data, nobody is going to be
Speaker 3: ready to do that. After you know, twelve games of
Speaker 3: data with Kenny Pickett. Nobody is going to be ready
Speaker 3: to do it, but I think you can do it.
Speaker 3: After a season. That's when you start to get a
Speaker 3: full data set. Right when we talk about betting, all
Speaker 3: of the data I give you is going to be
Speaker 3: based on the data set of at least one hundred games.
Speaker 3: You need to have like a full picture to understand
Speaker 3: is it a trend? Is it something that someone can overcome?
Speaker 3: Is it something that people were overperforming? Like what were
Speaker 3: the factors?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, you have the full
Speaker 3: data set and you've got a much cleaner look at
Speaker 3: what the real pattern is, and you know if someone's
Speaker 3: gonna change it or not. And so then you got
Speaker 3: to ask yourself, with someone like Jordan Love, what was
Speaker 3: the missing factor?
Speaker 2: You know, we've talked about this before.
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts in year one was good, but there were
Speaker 3: questions about how good of a full quarterback he could be,
Speaker 3: how good of a pastor he could be. Year two,
Speaker 3: you get Aj Brown, you get DeVante Smith comes along.
Speaker 3: If you're a quarterback, you need to have weapons you
Speaker 3: believe in. You need to have weapons who can make
Speaker 3: you look better. You need to have weapons that you
Speaker 3: feel comfortable throwing a fifty to fifty ball. Same thing
Speaker 3: with Josh Allen as Stefan Dicks. Josh Allen his first
Speaker 3: couple of years was not nearly as good as he
Speaker 3: was when he got Stefan Dicks right, and then all
Speaker 3: of a sudden his game changed. I think there was
Speaker 3: hope that Justin Field would be that with DJ Moore,
Speaker 3: I think the patterers are going to have these questions
Speaker 3: about Jordan Love if he doesn't get a full season
Speaker 3: of Christian Watson being a number one caliber receiver, They're
Speaker 3: gonna have to make a call. Do we have to
Speaker 3: get a receiver? Is Jordan Love someone that we believe
Speaker 3: can grow into being a great quarterback? By the way,
Speaker 3: you like the Bears this week, Well, of course I do.
Speaker 2: I mean it's a wise guy spy, you know. I
Speaker 2: was funny.
Speaker 3: I was talking with my co host Simon Hunter on
Speaker 3: The Favorites this morning, and I had told him on Tuesday,
Speaker 3: I feel like the wise guys are going to be
Speaker 3: on the Bears. And then on Thursday we always do
Speaker 3: this segment called Sharp Calls, and we're like, the wise
Speaker 3: guys are giving us feedback on what we talked about
Speaker 3: on Tuesday, and they all liked the Bears, And it's
Speaker 3: a lot of the same principles we've been talking about. Right,
Speaker 3: the Bears are undervalued, They're a terrible team. Meanwhile, you
Speaker 3: got the Raiders coming in. Should the Raiders be three
Speaker 3: point favorites against anybody?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: They weren't even three point favorites at home against the Packer,
Speaker 3: against the Patriots, and all of a sudden they're going
Speaker 3: on the road. They're a badly coached team with a
Speaker 3: backup quarterback who's been in the league for fifteen years, Like,
Speaker 3: this is not a scenario where they should be a
Speaker 3: field goal or more favorite.
Speaker 2: So yeah, wise guys are going to be in the
Speaker 2: Bears as olways.
Speaker 1: Chad Melman, it's good seeing you.
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure brother.
Speaker 1: The volume