WEBVTT - Colin Cowherd Podcast - TNF Reaction, Derek Carr, MSU Coaching Opening, Sharp Or Square 0:00:01.440 --> 0:00:07.200 The volume. Is there a better sports month than October? 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:11.360 Let me think about that. Uh No, Football's Underway, baseball playoffs, 0:00:11.520 --> 0:00:14.200 basketball hockey seasons are upon us pretty good. While we 0:00:14.280 --> 0:00:17.800 love watching our favorite teams on TV, there is nothing 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:20.400 better than watching sports in person. You know that. 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:21.040 I know that. 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:24.479 The drama, the crowd, the energy, the adrenaline. It's perfect. 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:25.880 And the best way to go to any of these 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:28.960 games and see these games in person is game Time, 0:00:29.120 --> 0:00:33.040 the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States. 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So download the 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:08.280 game Time app quickly, create an account and use the 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:12.800 redeem code column. That's me, redeem code Colin COOLi and 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:15.520 twenty dollars if you do that, twenty bucks off your 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:18.960 first purchase. If you do that, terms now apply again. 0:01:19.040 --> 0:01:22.480 Create an account the redeem code Colin col I n 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:29.000 for twenty bucks off download game time today, last minute tickets, 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:37.360 lowest prices guarantee. All right, Hi, everybody, welcome in. I 0:01:37.400 --> 0:01:39.440 got about a ten minute rant before we get to 0:01:39.520 --> 0:01:41.680 Sharper Square, which is a good one. This week. We 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.000 have some theories that Chad Melman of the Action Network 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:47.400 and I go back and forth on one regarding Jordan 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.520 Love of the Green Bay Packers. So a really good 0:01:49.920 --> 0:01:53.520 twenty twenty five minute Sharper Square with Chad Melman. So, 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.120 you know, how do you define a franchise quarterback? Tonight? 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:01.600 Trevor Lawrence is a franchise quarterback. Doesn't practice all week, 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:08.280 bad knee, facing a better defense Saints than Derek Carr 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:12.239 faces in the Jacks. He's on the road, one of 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:17.760 the louder stadiums. Trevor Lawrence, unlike Carr, doesn't make the 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:21.440 big mistake, doesn't have a pick six. A very tidy 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.320 twenty for twenty nine, two hundred and four yards, sixty 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.760 yards rushing and a touchdown on the road against the 0:02:28.800 --> 0:02:35.040 better defense. Did not practice. That's a franchise quarterback. It's 0:02:35.080 --> 0:02:39.160 not having to play great, it's just making enough plays 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:43.280 to win a road game when you don't practice all week. 0:02:44.560 --> 0:02:48.680 Derek Carr at home has Alvin Kamara arguably the best 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:54.560 player in the game. A lave Michael Thomas. Derek Carr's 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:58.440 line a less efficient thirty three of fifty five of 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:03.119 pick six, one touchdown. The offense was essentially Alvin Kamara 0:03:03.320 --> 0:03:07.400 seventeen carries and twelve catches. Think about that, twenty nine 0:03:07.720 --> 0:03:11.600 times he touched the ball. Oh, running backs, The life 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:14.840 of a running back. I am not anti Derek Carr, 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:22.680 but when Derek Carr was in Vegas or Oakland, he 0:03:22.840 --> 0:03:30.120 was almost a sympathetic figure. Right, weird ownership, kooky organization, 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:38.400 Al Davis into his son, and so when you watched him, 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:42.000 team had to move to Vegas. When you watched Derek Carr, 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:45.400 he was almost a sympathetic figure. You know, if he 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.880 could only get a good defense, a star back, a 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:54.120 couple of great weapons, a functional, stable ownership group, a 0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:59.800 weaker conference, a wait, a weaker division. O. Wait, he 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:03.600 got all of them with the Saints, and it feels 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:07.080 like he's standing in the way of success. Weaker division, 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:14.160 Nomah Holmes, Herbert twice a year, weaker conference, better defense, 0:04:14.920 --> 0:04:18.040 more functional ownership, one of the top gms, Mickey Loomis 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:21.960 in the league. Two star receivers, star back, and at 0:04:22.040 --> 0:04:24.080 least a good run blocking line. I don't know if 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:25.919 they're a good pass blocking line the Saints, but a 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:31.320 pretty good run blocking line. And he's at home facing 0:04:31.360 --> 0:04:35.360 a quarterback who didn't practice and loses. And years ago, 0:04:35.520 --> 0:04:41.120 Raider fans just would relentlessly call me out when I 0:04:41.120 --> 0:04:43.440 would say, you know, I think Derek Carr is about 0:04:43.440 --> 0:04:45.480 the twelfth best quarterback in the league. He's around that 0:04:45.560 --> 0:04:50.720 Dak Prescott level. And I really did believe that. But 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:54.240 what's happened is Derek's not in his prime. He's just 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:57.160 out of it, and the league's gotten better at quarterback. 0:04:57.240 --> 0:04:59.680 There's just five or six guys that weren't around five 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.839 years ago. And if you right now look at the 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:05.799 top ten quarterbacks in the league, and I would say Mahomes, 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:11.599 Allen Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Stafford, Hurtz, Trevor, Lawrence Goff, 0:05:11.680 --> 0:05:15.240 Aaron Rodgers. I'll put in there too. Those are ten. 0:05:15.520 --> 0:05:18.839 I would take Kyler, Murray, Dak and Tua above Derek Carr. 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.000 And I watched them play against c J. Stroud last 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.799 week and I thought c J. Stroud was a better 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:27.000 distributor of the ball, a more accurate thrower, and played 0:05:27.040 --> 0:05:30.120 with more confidence. So now he's the fifteenth best quarterback 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:32.440 Derek Carr in the league. And he got the bag, 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:34.040 which is going to limit for the next couple of 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:36.359 years what the Saints can do in free agency. And 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:40.359 I was talking about this on FS one today. If 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:44.039 you're questioning whether you should give your quarterback big money, 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:49.280 Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, you know, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:53.640 ask yourself, this would at least half the league, and 0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:59.799 preferably over half the league make a call on them. 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:04.920 No for Garoppolo, Tannehill, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. Derek 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:07.920 Carr had a market of about three teams, that's it. 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:12.720 And Herbert would have twenty two, Allen would have twenty eight. 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:16.920 Mahomes would have everybody except Kansas City make a call, 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.240 right that's the difference. The market tells you how good 0:06:20.240 --> 0:06:22.880 your quarterback is. It's what I've said about Tua. Tua's 0:06:22.880 --> 0:06:26.080 market would be about six seven teams. Let's say I'm wrong, 0:06:26.279 --> 0:06:30.320 double it to twelve. It's still not enough. You got 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:33.040 ten bad quarterbacks in the league and ten okay quarterbacks 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.920 in the league, right, and then ten to twelve guys 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:38.320 we kind of rt like and really about six we 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:42.640 love maybe seven. So I mean, that's the mistake the 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:45.920 Saints made. Now. They were a little desperate. Taysom Hill 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:50.040 doesn't feel like a franchise guy. Jamis Winston, Drew Brees left, 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:53.599 so Sean Payton left, so you're looking for some stability 0:06:53.640 --> 0:06:55.640 with Derek Carr and I like him, but right now 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:58.120 I feel like he's about the fifteenth best quarterback in 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:00.400 the league, losing it home to a court back that 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:03.320 didn't practice with a better defense. The best player on 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:08.479 the field probably Alvin Kamara, lave Michael Thomas and had 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:11.679 one great drive. It's not being critical, just being honest 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:13.840 about it. So when you look at the Saints now, 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:16.000 you know there's going to be a lot of decisions 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:17.840 in this league. Do you pay a guy or not 0:07:18.000 --> 0:07:21.480 people in Chicago or backing Justin Fields. Would over half 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:24.840 the league call on Justin Fields? Absolutely not. He's probably 0:07:24.880 --> 0:07:27.800 not the guy, right, doesn't mean he doesn't have talent. 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:30.920 And I think there would be four or five teams 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:34.840 that would call on Justin Fields today, maybe six, maybe eight. 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:39.640 But look at it. If it's not over half the 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:43.560 league last ten years, you're probably spending too much money 0:07:43.800 --> 0:07:46.120 on that quarterback. And that's how I feel about the 0:07:46.120 --> 0:07:51.000 Saints and Derek Carr. So there's been this story, a 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:54.080 rumor out there about the Michigan State job now Michigan 0:07:54.120 --> 0:07:58.080 State Athletics, between the mel Tucker mess and another coach 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:02.680 in their organization that did some criminal things. The brand's 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:07.440 gross right now, and so there's been talk about, like, 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:12.240 you know, would Urban Meyer go to Michigan State? And 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.840 the most attractive thing about Michigan State football is that 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:19.040 the word Michigan, isn't it right? That's how big the 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:23.320 Wolverines brand is. So as the PAC twelve's four best 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:27.200 football programs four of five, Utah is better than u CLA, 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.760 but I would say USC, Washington, Oregon. Historically, those are 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:33.520 the best last twenty years programs in that conference. Are 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:38.240 joining the Big Ten Conference. So Michigan State is not 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.720 Ohio State. It's not Michigan, it's not Penn State, it's 0:08:41.760 --> 0:08:45.240 not Oregon. Go look at their last twenty years. Washington, 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:48.400 who is a top ten program every time they get 0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:51.040 the right coach, and it's not usc with six or 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:54.720 seven national titles. You can argue it's UCLA. I don't 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:57.000 think it is, but it's an argument. Nick Saban couldn't 0:08:57.000 --> 0:09:03.199 win at Michigan State, Chris Peterson, Don James Rick Neuheisel, 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:08.400 and the current Huskies coach Caitlin n Boor winning big 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.680 at Washington, so it's not Washington. So at best, it 0:09:12.679 --> 0:09:15.080 would be the seventh best program in the Big Ten. 0:09:15.320 --> 0:09:18.000 And I would take the Wisconsin job over Michigan State 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:20.599 just because right now, I wouldn't mind if I was 0:09:20.640 --> 0:09:24.520 a coach attaching my brand to Wisconsin's cleaner brand. That 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:27.520 makes it the eighth best job at best in the 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:31.120 Big Ten. I don't have this sourced, but why in 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:33.320 the world would Urban Meyer, who has paid over forty 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:38.320 million dollars to not coach the Jaguars, leave Sarasota, Florida 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:42.840 for that? I wouldn't. I think that would be if 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:46.800 you're his agent and recommended that you get a new agent. 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:49.840 Now he may take the job. Money talks. Somebody offers 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:52.480 him a hundred million dollars. But when I hear rumors 0:09:52.520 --> 0:09:55.120 about that, I think to myself, the best part about 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:59.280 Michigan State is the word Michigan's in it. General rule, 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:03.240 don't take the Auburn job. Take the Alabama job, right, 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:06.080 Don't take the UCLA football job, take the usc job. 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:09.160 Don't take the Oklahoma State job. Take the Oklahoma job. 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:11.760 Take big brother, not little brother. 0:10:12.520 --> 0:10:12.840 All right. 0:10:12.920 --> 0:10:15.880 Chad Milman comes on a lot to talk about a 0:10:15.960 --> 0:10:19.199 lot of different things. To talk about the NFL season. 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:24.600 It's going strong and DraftKings Sportsbook hooking new customers up 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:28.080 with an offer even stronger bet five books. That's it 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:32.080 on any game this week to score two one hundred 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:35.600 dollars instantly in bonus bets. How easy is that? And 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:39.200 DraftKings isn't stopping there. All customers can take advantage of 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:44.800 a sweetener offer every game this October. Get in on 0:10:45.200 --> 0:10:48.840 the action, get in on the game day greatness. Download 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:54.080 the DraftKings Sportsbook AP now. The code is Colin Coln. 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:59.800 New customers can score two hundred dollars instantly in bonus 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:02.880 bet when you just bet five bucks on the National 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:03.640 Football League. 0:11:03.640 --> 0:11:04.120 That easy. 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:08.319 That's the code Colin Coli n only on Draft King 0:11:08.440 --> 0:11:12.800 sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL. The 0:11:12.920 --> 0:11:23.240 crown is yours all right, Time for another edition Sharper Square. 0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:25.920 It's the CEO of the Action Network, Chad Millman. My 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.920 buddy O odds provided by Draft Kings. So Warren Sharp 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:32.000 sent me something over the week that was really fascinating. 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:36.080 Underdogs are not doing well this year, and Warren Sharp 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:40.479 not only theorizes but indicates that the holding calls defensively 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.760 have gone down sharply. And so when you look at 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:48.080 the numbers of the holding calls defensively, it's now understood 0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:50.640 that you're allowed to grab receivers down the field. It's 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:53.840 just understood. It was not three years ago that was 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.000 we would all as fans go, that's a penalty. Now 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.200 you can do it while the ball's in the air. 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:02.680 If it's not, you know, lurching at the player and 0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:06.080 disrupting him. And so what does that mean. My theory 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:13.360 is that that will punitively punish the mediocre to below 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:17.319 average quarterbacks. Daniel Jones can't even get a touchdown this month. 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:22.679 So the Tannehills, the Daniel Jones, the backups, the gap 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:26.840 between starters and stars and backups Tannehill and Mahomes. Now 0:12:28.240 --> 0:12:31.559 five years ago he could be competitive. The gap now 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:36.400 between Daniel Jones and Mahomes. It's like junior varsity. Varsity 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:40.520 underdogs are not covering the best quarterback. If Baker is 0:12:40.520 --> 0:12:43.440 better than Derek Carr, and I think he is, leads 0:12:43.720 --> 0:12:48.280 already leads in seven divisions. The exception has brought pretty. 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:51.600 He's not as good as Stafford, but he's better than 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:56.040 Arizona's backup and arguably better than Geno Smith. So my 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:58.440 point being is, I've always been a fan of underdogs, 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:02.760 but increasingly this year, my winning bets are on superior 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:08.040 quarterbacks covering and Warren Sharp detailing. Now, this is really 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:13.200 hurting scorings down, but there are more blowouts in two 0:13:13.240 --> 0:13:16.800 years than we've ever had, and the scoring is declining 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:20.319 even for Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore. And so I look 0:13:20.320 --> 0:13:21.800 at my bets this week and I think I wouldn't 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.480 have made these bets a year ago. But I'll throw 0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:28.680 one at you Ravens minus three at home against the Lions. 0:13:29.360 --> 0:13:32.120 So I watched Baltimore. I thought their first half against 0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:34.960 Tennessee was the single most impressive half of the season 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:39.760 by a quarterback in any game. I thought Lamar was spectacular. 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:43.600 Detroit has been on a little bit of a streak. 0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.880 They've won on the road. This is a whole different ballgame. 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:51.920 Baltimore is one of the hardest places to play. I 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.080 still think the Ravens, I told you last week it 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:58.120 was my favorite bet are undervalued. So again plus three 0:13:58.160 --> 0:14:00.360 Detroit hot would have been my pick. I'm going to 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:03.040 go Baltimore minus three sharper square. 0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:08.000 So it's definitely sharp. Speaking of I think I think 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:13.480 Warren's uh sort of inclination about the holding penalties is interesting. 0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:17.839 But you could also argue that teams that are underdogs 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:22.400 aren't covering because not because there's holding calls, but because 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:26.280 quarterbacks haven't been making plays. Just look this past weekend. 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:29.240 How many downfield throws that could have made a difference 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:33.040 did Baker miss? How many downfield throws that could have 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:36.960 made a huge difference to Justin Herbert miss. I think 0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.480 there's a combination of a lot of things that are 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.840 impacting some of these games. Some of them are sort 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:47.720 of factors that are are not repeatable. Some of them 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.680 are a regression, some of them are things that are 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:54.160 going to be patterns. Certainly, offense is down considerably and. 0:14:54.200 --> 0:14:56.360 Sacks are up, by the way, so on line players, 0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:02.240 so media with pressure and defensive holding, like, the sacks 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:05.720 are way up. So if you can escape it, you're okay. 0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:07.080 This year. 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:12.000 I think right now, the average yards per attempt, yards 0:15:12.000 --> 0:15:15.600 per completion, it's something like ten point six. It's amongst 0:15:15.640 --> 0:15:17.880 the lowest and in the modern. 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:18.960 Era of the NFL. 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:23.960 So certainly defenses are on the up and offenses are 0:15:24.120 --> 0:15:27.360 leveling out, which probably means when the Competition Committee meets 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:29.800 in the spring, they will figure out a way to 0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:30.680 make it easier for. 0:15:30.680 --> 0:15:32.520 Offenses to score the football. 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:32.960 You know. 0:15:33.480 --> 0:15:36.000 But to your point about the Ravens, yeah, it's the 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:37.760 sharp side. The line opened to two and a half. 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:42.560 Everybody believes the Lions are way over valued. You're talking 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:45.000 about a team that was eleven to one to win 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.920 the NFC before the season began. They're now down to 0:15:47.920 --> 0:15:52.480 six to one, just behind the Dallas Cowboys and obviously 0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:54.880 the Niners and the Eagles. And you have to take 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:57.800 a look for a second at who the Lions have beaten, right, 0:15:58.160 --> 0:16:02.080 the Panthers, the Bucks. They have not beaten very good teams, 0:16:02.360 --> 0:16:06.960 the Packers, and meanwhile the Ravens. A they scored twenty 0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:09.920 eight points against the Cleveland Browns, which is an historically 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:12.960 great defense. And your point about Lamar is spot on. 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:16.640 Like they've been red zone inefficient in certain games. That 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:18.600 game against the Steelers they should have won. We talked 0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.040 about this last week. A lot of drop passes that 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:23.040 would have made the difference and put the game away. 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:25.840 He's actually playing really well. And Lamar, when he is 0:16:25.880 --> 0:16:29.640 a short favorite, is actually very very good against the spread. 0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:31.920 Bigger favorite, not so much short favorite. 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:33.920 I like it. Wise, guys like it. 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:37.080 You're sharp all right, Browns minus two and a half. 0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:42.280 It is a staggeringly good defense. And I think San 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:44.800 Francisco settling for field goals should have made him but 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.520 missed him. And this is a team that is loaded 0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:51.200 with weapons, a brilliant head coach. Now, yes it's on 0:16:51.240 --> 0:16:55.000 the road, but backup quarterbacks or backups for a reason. 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:58.440 If I said this last week, you know Gardner Minshew, 0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:03.080 the analytics said take Colts against right, the Jags the 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.760 better quarterback at home. So I don't love the quarterback 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:10.840 situation for Cleveland. I do not trust a backup quarterback 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:14.680 against this defense. I think Cleveland's for real. I may 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.600 be disgusted by Deshaun Watson, he still may play. But 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:21.320 if this is three, I pass at two and a half. 0:17:21.600 --> 0:17:24.600 This is a playoff level, elite defense. I'd take it 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:25.720 sharper square. 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:30.760 A little trappy, Colin, here's the challenge. I agree with 0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:32.840 you about Gardner Minshew. When I was taking notes on 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:35.239 the games last weekend, one of the notes that I 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:39.720 took was have the shoes fallen off? Is Cinderella no 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:43.040 longer Cinderella? And Gardner Minshew because in the games that 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:45.879 he had been playing for Anthony Richardson, he had been winning, 0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:49.760 he had been covering, he had been playing, unlike Gardner Minshew, 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:54.119 who had gone winless for so long last week a 0:17:54.240 --> 0:17:56.760 lot of bad turnovers, turnovers that took them out of 0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:00.320 that game from the very beginning. Meanwhile, you get the 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:05.639 Browns at home backup quarterback. They just beat the team 0:18:05.640 --> 0:18:08.240 that everybody thought was the best team in the NFL, 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:10.639 that had just beaten up on the Cowboys in an 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:14.679 embarrassing fashion that Catapult had brought Purdy to be seven 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:18.680 to one to win the MVP in the NFL. That's 0:18:18.760 --> 0:18:22.479 overvalue City man versus a team at home that is 0:18:22.680 --> 0:18:25.800 entirely undervalued because of how badly they played and because 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:28.439 of Gardner Minshew. Honestly, for me, it's a pass like 0:18:28.440 --> 0:18:32.000 I want nothing to do with this game. So if 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:33.959 you want to play it, buy or beware. 0:18:34.960 --> 0:18:38.160 Eagles minus two and a half. Another favorite, hosting Miami. 0:18:38.280 --> 0:18:40.480 I think Miami, I've got a pretty good read. They're 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:42.720 a heavy weight with a glass chin. If you punch 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.000 them back, can get a rush with four. They fold 0:18:45.000 --> 0:18:48.760 pretty quickly. Lane Johnson should play. That's a more comfortable 0:18:48.840 --> 0:18:52.879 quarterback against the less comfortable quarterback. Miami will score. But 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:55.359 if you look at their defensive front for Miami and 0:18:55.400 --> 0:18:57.919 the offensive front of Lane Johnson plays, this could be 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:03.680 ball control. I'minan I'm gonna take for the record, Philadelphia 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:07.359 night game at home. Watch the Phillies games lately, like 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:10.520 it's just different. I'm gonna take Eagles minus two and 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:14.320 a half. Sharper square totally sharp throughth is. This line 0:19:14.359 --> 0:19:16.960 opened at one and a half and moved up to two. 0:19:17.200 --> 0:19:18.639 Now it's a two and a half. It is a 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:22.280 pros Joe's game, right. The wise guys are one hundred 0:19:22.320 --> 0:19:27.160 percent on the Eagles. The Joe's the amateurs, the squares 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:28.920 they are on the Dolphins. 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:30.320 And you mentioned a couple. 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:33.000 You mentioned two things that are really important here. One, 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:38.320 Lane Johnson, if he plays, this is a significantly different team. 0:19:38.320 --> 0:19:38.919 When he doesn't. 0:19:39.000 --> 0:19:42.160 I think they're ten and twenty two without Lane Johnson, 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:45.120 and when he plays, they're a super Bowl caliber team. Two, 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:49.320 Jalen hurts against pressure not so good. Jalen hurts when 0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:52.480 he's not against pressure with teams that can't pressure him 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:54.320 more than forty percent of the time. I think he's 0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:56.840 twenty and five in his career. So you're talking about 0:19:56.840 --> 0:19:59.040 a Miami Dolphins team that is not great at pressuring 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:02.879 the quarterback, and you're talking about an Eagles team that 0:20:03.000 --> 0:20:05.760 is coming off a loss that they were headed for. 0:20:05.840 --> 0:20:07.879 You and I have talked about this, like, the Eagles 0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:11.920 have been winning because they have a really good head coach, 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:15.560 they have a really good quarterback, they have really good 0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:19.000 weapons on the edges, but they haven't been gelling offensively 0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:23.480 at all. And also last week, Jalen Carter didn't play right. 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:25.680 He was resting, so this week he should be back 0:20:25.720 --> 0:20:29.600 on defense. And the Eagles had that moment like, Okay, 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:34.000 we've been stealing wins. We were embarrassed by the Jets. 0:20:34.320 --> 0:20:37.360 We understand better now what we need to do. We're 0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:39.679 going to come back because that's who we are. The 0:20:39.720 --> 0:20:41.240 wise guys are on the Eagles. 0:20:41.600 --> 0:20:46.239 One more favorite I think I would take. I'm not 0:20:46.280 --> 0:20:47.879 sure I love it, but I'm going to wait for 0:20:47.920 --> 0:20:50.639 the injury report. Minnesota is just not that good. I 0:20:50.640 --> 0:20:54.240 hear about how unlucky they are. Maybe that's not the issue. 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:56.840 Forty nine ers off a loss are a really good 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:00.800 football team. Minnesota is not. I don't think it's a 0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:04.160 great locker room. I don't think I don't think they 0:21:04.240 --> 0:21:07.880 create pressure situations for offenses. I think San Francisco will 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:12.399 control the ball at some point. If you do something 0:21:12.440 --> 0:21:14.320 five or six weeks in a row, you're not unlucky. 0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:16.960 It's who you are. And I don't think Minnesota is 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:19.680 very good. I think quietly in the building they're moving 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.760 off Cousins. They moved off to Alvin Cook. I don't 0:21:22.800 --> 0:21:25.760 think it's I just I don't love this team. I'm 0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:27.520 going to take the Niners minus six and a half. 0:21:27.520 --> 0:21:28.240 Sharper square. 0:21:28.960 --> 0:21:32.800 You are who your record says you are. Didn't some 0:21:32.960 --> 0:21:37.120 brilliant coach say that one will ourselves. The Vikings are 0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:39.840 not a very good football team. They weren't very good 0:21:40.119 --> 0:21:43.040 last week against a terrible team and the Bears. The 0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:46.080 only reason they won that game is because a second 0:21:46.080 --> 0:21:49.040 string quarterback who's a rookie who had never played, came 0:21:49.040 --> 0:21:52.600 in off the bench, fumbled scoop and score for the Vikings. 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.240 That was the difference in the game. Otherwise the Bears 0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:58.760 with a backup quarterback win that game. Right, And so 0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:01.720 this has been the center on the Vikings all year. 0:22:01.840 --> 0:22:05.120 People were fading the Vikings. They did not expect them 0:22:05.160 --> 0:22:08.200 to win at the rate they did last year. There 0:22:08.240 --> 0:22:10.000 was gonna be a regression because of how many one 0:22:10.040 --> 0:22:12.880 score games they won. This line has moved up from 0:22:12.880 --> 0:22:15.240 six and a half it did seven. The wise guys 0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:20.600 are hesitant to come in on big road favorites, but 0:22:20.880 --> 0:22:23.560 in this case they are aligned with you. 0:22:23.760 --> 0:22:26.320 All right, here's my one dog I don't love the 0:22:26.359 --> 0:22:29.119 slate this week for dogs Chargers plus five and a 0:22:29.160 --> 0:22:32.000 half at Kansas City listen, they're in close games, they're 0:22:32.000 --> 0:22:35.000 a good team. I don't love them situationally. If it's close, 0:22:35.040 --> 0:22:37.720 I'll take Andy Reid. But I think their personnel matches 0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:40.800 up very well with Kansas City. It has with Anthony Linn, 0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:43.840 it has with Brandon Staley. This feels like kind of 0:22:43.840 --> 0:22:47.000 a gimme. I don't ever love the Chiefs as a favorite. 0:22:47.400 --> 0:22:49.800 They're not a high fire power team. Now, they did 0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:51.920 get their receiver back from the Jets, but it'll take 0:22:51.960 --> 0:22:54.959 probably a couple of weeks to get him right situated. 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:56.720 I'm going to take the Chargers plus five and a 0:22:56.720 --> 0:22:57.680 half sharper. 0:22:57.320 --> 0:23:00.000 Square, totally sharp, and Look, this is one of the 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:03.160 those games that's really interesting, right because you're talking about 0:23:03.200 --> 0:23:06.880 it from multiple levels. Are you talking about what you're 0:23:06.880 --> 0:23:10.119