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Speaker 1: Let me think about that. Uh No, Football's Underway, baseball playoffs,

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Speaker 1: lowest prices guarantee. All right, Hi, everybody, welcome in. I

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Speaker 1: got about a ten minute rant before we get to

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square, which is a good one. This week. We

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Speaker 1: have some theories that Chad Melman of the Action Network

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Speaker 1: and I go back and forth on one regarding Jordan

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Speaker 1: Love of the Green Bay Packers. So a really good

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five minute Sharper Square with Chad Melman. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, how do you define a franchise quarterback? Tonight?

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence is a franchise quarterback. Doesn't practice all week,

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Speaker 1: bad knee, facing a better defense Saints than Derek Carr

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Speaker 1: faces in the Jacks. He's on the road, one of

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Speaker 1: the louder stadiums. Trevor Lawrence, unlike Carr, doesn't make the

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Speaker 1: big mistake, doesn't have a pick six. A very tidy

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Speaker 1: twenty for twenty nine, two hundred and four yards, sixty

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Speaker 1: yards rushing and a touchdown on the road against the

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Speaker 1: better defense. Did not practice. That's a franchise quarterback. It's

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Speaker 1: not having to play great, it's just making enough plays

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Speaker 1: to win a road game when you don't practice all week.

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Speaker 1: Derek Carr at home has Alvin Kamara arguably the best

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Speaker 1: player in the game. A lave Michael Thomas. Derek Carr's

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Speaker 1: line a less efficient thirty three of fifty five of

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Speaker 1: pick six, one touchdown. The offense was essentially Alvin Kamara

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Speaker 1: seventeen carries and twelve catches. Think about that, twenty nine

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Speaker 1: times he touched the ball. Oh, running backs, The life

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Speaker 1: of a running back. I am not anti Derek Carr,

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Speaker 1: but when Derek Carr was in Vegas or Oakland, he

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Speaker 1: was almost a sympathetic figure. Right, weird ownership, kooky organization,

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Speaker 1: Al Davis into his son, and so when you watched him,

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Speaker 1: team had to move to Vegas. When you watched Derek Carr,

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Speaker 1: he was almost a sympathetic figure. You know, if he

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Speaker 1: could only get a good defense, a star back, a

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Speaker 1: couple of great weapons, a functional, stable ownership group, a

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Speaker 1: weaker conference, a wait, a weaker division. O. Wait, he

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Speaker 1: got all of them with the Saints, and it feels

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Speaker 1: like he's standing in the way of success. Weaker division,

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Speaker 1: Nomah Holmes, Herbert twice a year, weaker conference, better defense,

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Speaker 1: more functional ownership, one of the top gms, Mickey Loomis

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Speaker 1: in the league. Two star receivers, star back, and at

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Speaker 1: least a good run blocking line. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: they're a good pass blocking line the Saints, but a

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Speaker 1: pretty good run blocking line. And he's at home facing

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Speaker 1: a quarterback who didn't practice and loses. And years ago,

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Speaker 1: Raider fans just would relentlessly call me out when I

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Speaker 1: would say, you know, I think Derek Carr is about

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Speaker 1: the twelfth best quarterback in the league. He's around that

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Speaker 1: Dak Prescott level. And I really did believe that. But

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Speaker 1: what's happened is Derek's not in his prime. He's just

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Speaker 1: out of it, and the league's gotten better at quarterback.

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Speaker 1: There's just five or six guys that weren't around five

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Speaker 1: years ago. And if you right now look at the

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Speaker 1: top ten quarterbacks in the league, and I would say Mahomes,

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Speaker 1: Allen Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Herbert Stafford, Hurtz, Trevor, Lawrence Goff,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. I'll put in there too. Those are ten.

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Speaker 1: I would take Kyler, Murray, Dak and Tua above Derek Carr.

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Speaker 1: And I watched them play against c J. Stroud last

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Speaker 1: week and I thought c J. Stroud was a better

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Speaker 1: distributor of the ball, a more accurate thrower, and played

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Speaker 1: with more confidence. So now he's the fifteenth best quarterback

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Speaker 1: Derek Carr in the league. And he got the bag,

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Speaker 1: which is going to limit for the next couple of

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Speaker 1: years what the Saints can do in free agency. And

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Speaker 1: I was talking about this on FS one today. If

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Speaker 1: you're questioning whether you should give your quarterback big money,

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, Ryan Tannehill, you know, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo,

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Speaker 1: ask yourself, this would at least half the league, and

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Speaker 1: preferably over half the league make a call on them.

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Speaker 1: No for Garoppolo, Tannehill, Daniel Jones, and Derek Carr. Derek

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Speaker 1: Carr had a market of about three teams, that's it.

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Speaker 1: And Herbert would have twenty two, Allen would have twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: Mahomes would have everybody except Kansas City make a call,

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Speaker 1: right that's the difference. The market tells you how good

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Speaker 1: your quarterback is. It's what I've said about Tua. Tua's

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Speaker 1: market would be about six seven teams. Let's say I'm wrong,

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Speaker 1: double it to twelve. It's still not enough. You got

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Speaker 1: ten bad quarterbacks in the league and ten okay quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: in the league, right, and then ten to twelve guys

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Speaker 1: we kind of rt like and really about six we

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Speaker 1: love maybe seven. So I mean, that's the mistake the

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Speaker 1: Saints made. Now. They were a little desperate. Taysom Hill

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Speaker 1: doesn't feel like a franchise guy. Jamis Winston, Drew Brees left,

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Speaker 1: so Sean Payton left, so you're looking for some stability

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Speaker 1: with Derek Carr and I like him, but right now

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Speaker 1: I feel like he's about the fifteenth best quarterback in

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Speaker 1: the league, losing it home to a court back that

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Speaker 1: didn't practice with a better defense. The best player on

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Speaker 1: the field probably Alvin Kamara, lave Michael Thomas and had

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Speaker 1: one great drive. It's not being critical, just being honest

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Speaker 1: about it. So when you look at the Saints now,

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Speaker 1: you know there's going to be a lot of decisions

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Speaker 1: in this league. Do you pay a guy or not

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Speaker 1: people in Chicago or backing Justin Fields. Would over half

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Speaker 1: the league call on Justin Fields? Absolutely not. He's probably

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Speaker 1: not the guy, right, doesn't mean he doesn't have talent.

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Speaker 1: And I think there would be four or five teams

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Speaker 1: that would call on Justin Fields today, maybe six, maybe eight.

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Speaker 1: But look at it. If it's not over half the

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Speaker 1: league last ten years, you're probably spending too much money

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Speaker 1: on that quarterback. And that's how I feel about the

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Speaker 1: Saints and Derek Carr. So there's been this story, a

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Speaker 1: rumor out there about the Michigan State job now Michigan

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Speaker 1: State Athletics, between the mel Tucker mess and another coach

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Speaker 1: in their organization that did some criminal things. The brand's

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Speaker 1: gross right now, and so there's been talk about, like,

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Speaker 1: you know, would Urban Meyer go to Michigan State? And

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Speaker 1: the most attractive thing about Michigan State football is that

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Speaker 1: the word Michigan, isn't it right? That's how big the

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Speaker 1: Wolverines brand is. So as the PAC twelve's four best

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Speaker 1: football programs four of five, Utah is better than u CLA,

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Speaker 1: but I would say USC, Washington, Oregon. Historically, those are

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Speaker 1: the best last twenty years programs in that conference. Are

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Speaker 1: joining the Big Ten Conference. So Michigan State is not

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Speaker 1: Ohio State. It's not Michigan, it's not Penn State, it's

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Speaker 1: not Oregon. Go look at their last twenty years. Washington,

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Speaker 1: who is a top ten program every time they get

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Speaker 1: the right coach, and it's not usc with six or

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Speaker 1: seven national titles. You can argue it's UCLA. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it is, but it's an argument. Nick Saban couldn't

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Speaker 1: win at Michigan State, Chris Peterson, Don James Rick Neuheisel,

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Speaker 1: and the current Huskies coach Caitlin n Boor winning big

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Speaker 1: at Washington, so it's not Washington. So at best, it

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Speaker 1: would be the seventh best program in the Big Ten.

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Speaker 1: And I would take the Wisconsin job over Michigan State

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Speaker 1: just because right now, I wouldn't mind if I was

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Speaker 1: a coach attaching my brand to Wisconsin's cleaner brand. That

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Speaker 1: makes it the eighth best job at best in the

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Speaker 1: Big Ten. I don't have this sourced, but why in

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Speaker 1: the world would Urban Meyer, who has paid over forty

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Speaker 1: million dollars to not coach the Jaguars, leave Sarasota, Florida

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Speaker 1: for that? I wouldn't. I think that would be if

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Speaker 1: you're his agent and recommended that you get a new agent.

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Speaker 1: Now he may take the job. Money talks. Somebody offers

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Speaker 1: him a hundred million dollars. But when I hear rumors

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Speaker 1: about that, I think to myself, the best part about

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Speaker 1: Michigan State is the word Michigan's in it. General rule,

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Speaker 1: don't take the Auburn job. Take the Alabama job, right,

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Speaker 1: Don't take the UCLA football job, take the usc job.

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Speaker 1: Don't take the Oklahoma State job. Take the Oklahoma job.

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Speaker 1: Take big brother, not little brother.

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Speaker 2: All right.

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman comes on a lot to talk about a

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Speaker 1: crown is yours all right, Time for another edition Sharper Square.

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Speaker 1: It's the CEO of the Action Network, Chad Millman. My

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Speaker 1: buddy O odds provided by Draft Kings. So Warren Sharp

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Speaker 1: sent me something over the week that was really fascinating.

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Speaker 1: Underdogs are not doing well this year, and Warren Sharp

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Speaker 1: not only theorizes but indicates that the holding calls defensively

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Speaker 1: have gone down sharply. And so when you look at

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Speaker 1: the numbers of the holding calls defensively, it's now understood

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Speaker 1: that you're allowed to grab receivers down the field. It's

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Speaker 1: just understood. It was not three years ago that was

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Speaker 1: we would all as fans go, that's a penalty. Now

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Speaker 1: you can do it while the ball's in the air.

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Speaker 1: If it's not, you know, lurching at the player and

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Speaker 1: disrupting him. And so what does that mean. My theory

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Speaker 1: is that that will punitively punish the mediocre to below

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Speaker 1: average quarterbacks. Daniel Jones can't even get a touchdown this month.

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Speaker 1: So the Tannehills, the Daniel Jones, the backups, the gap

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Speaker 1: between starters and stars and backups Tannehill and Mahomes. Now

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Speaker 1: five years ago he could be competitive. The gap now

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Speaker 1: between Daniel Jones and Mahomes. It's like junior varsity. Varsity

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Speaker 1: underdogs are not covering the best quarterback. If Baker is

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Speaker 1: better than Derek Carr, and I think he is, leads

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Speaker 1: already leads in seven divisions. The exception has brought pretty.

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Speaker 1: He's not as good as Stafford, but he's better than

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Speaker 1: Arizona's backup and arguably better than Geno Smith. So my

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Speaker 1: point being is, I've always been a fan of underdogs,

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Speaker 1: but increasingly this year, my winning bets are on superior

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks covering and Warren Sharp detailing. Now, this is really

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Speaker 1: hurting scorings down, but there are more blowouts in two

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Speaker 1: years than we've ever had, and the scoring is declining

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Speaker 1: even for Kansas City, Cincinnati, Baltimore. And so I look

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Speaker 1: at my bets this week and I think I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: have made these bets a year ago. But I'll throw

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Speaker 1: one at you Ravens minus three at home against the Lions.

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Speaker 1: So I watched Baltimore. I thought their first half against

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Speaker 1: Tennessee was the single most impressive half of the season

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Speaker 1: by a quarterback in any game. I thought Lamar was spectacular.

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Speaker 1: Detroit has been on a little bit of a streak.

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Speaker 1: They've won on the road. This is a whole different ballgame.

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Speaker 1: Baltimore is one of the hardest places to play. I

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Speaker 1: still think the Ravens, I told you last week it

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Speaker 1: was my favorite bet are undervalued. So again plus three

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Speaker 1: Detroit hot would have been my pick. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: go Baltimore minus three sharper square.

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Speaker 3: So it's definitely sharp. Speaking of I think I think

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Speaker 3: Warren's uh sort of inclination about the holding penalties is interesting.

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Speaker 3: But you could also argue that teams that are underdogs

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Speaker 3: aren't covering because not because there's holding calls, but because

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks haven't been making plays. Just look this past weekend.

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Speaker 3: How many downfield throws that could have made a difference

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Speaker 3: did Baker miss? How many downfield throws that could have

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Speaker 3: made a huge difference to Justin Herbert miss. I think

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Speaker 3: there's a combination of a lot of things that are

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Speaker 3: impacting some of these games. Some of them are sort

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Speaker 3: of factors that are are not repeatable. Some of them

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Speaker 3: are a regression, some of them are things that are

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Speaker 3: going to be patterns. Certainly, offense is down considerably and.

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Speaker 1: Sacks are up, by the way, so on line players,

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Speaker 1: so media with pressure and defensive holding, like, the sacks

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Speaker 1: are way up. So if you can escape it, you're okay.

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Speaker 2: This year.

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Speaker 3: I think right now, the average yards per attempt, yards

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Speaker 3: per completion, it's something like ten point six. It's amongst

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Speaker 3: the lowest and in the modern.

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Speaker 2: Era of the NFL.

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Speaker 3: So certainly defenses are on the up and offenses are

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Speaker 3: leveling out, which probably means when the Competition Committee meets

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Speaker 3: in the spring, they will figure out a way to

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Speaker 3: make it easier for.

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Speaker 2: Offenses to score the football.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: But to your point about the Ravens, yeah, it's the

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Speaker 3: sharp side. The line opened to two and a half.

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Speaker 3: Everybody believes the Lions are way over valued. You're talking

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Speaker 3: about a team that was eleven to one to win

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Speaker 3: the NFC before the season began. They're now down to

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Speaker 3: six to one, just behind the Dallas Cowboys and obviously

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Speaker 3: the Niners and the Eagles. And you have to take

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Speaker 3: a look for a second at who the Lions have beaten, right,

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Speaker 3: the Panthers, the Bucks. They have not beaten very good teams,

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Speaker 3: the Packers, and meanwhile the Ravens. A they scored twenty

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Speaker 3: eight points against the Cleveland Browns, which is an historically

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Speaker 3: great defense. And your point about Lamar is spot on.

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Speaker 3: Like they've been red zone inefficient in certain games. That

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Speaker 3: game against the Steelers they should have won. We talked

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Speaker 3: about this last week. A lot of drop passes that

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Speaker 3: would have made the difference and put the game away.

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Speaker 3: He's actually playing really well. And Lamar, when he is

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Speaker 3: a short favorite, is actually very very good against the spread.

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Speaker 3: Bigger favorite, not so much short favorite.

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Speaker 2: I like it. Wise, guys like it.

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Speaker 1: You're sharp all right, Browns minus two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It is a staggeringly good defense. And I think San

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Speaker 1: Francisco settling for field goals should have made him but

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Speaker 1: missed him. And this is a team that is loaded

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Speaker 1: with weapons, a brilliant head coach. Now, yes it's on

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Speaker 1: the road, but backup quarterbacks or backups for a reason.

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Speaker 1: If I said this last week, you know Gardner Minshew,

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Speaker 1: the analytics said take Colts against right, the Jags the

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Speaker 1: better quarterback at home. So I don't love the quarterback

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Speaker 1: situation for Cleveland. I do not trust a backup quarterback

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Speaker 1: against this defense. I think Cleveland's for real. I may

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Speaker 1: be disgusted by Deshaun Watson, he still may play. But

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Speaker 1: if this is three, I pass at two and a half.

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Speaker 1: This is a playoff level, elite defense. I'd take it

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Speaker 1: sharper square.

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Speaker 3: A little trappy, Colin, here's the challenge. I agree with

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Speaker 3: you about Gardner Minshew. When I was taking notes on

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Speaker 3: the games last weekend, one of the notes that I

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Speaker 3: took was have the shoes fallen off? Is Cinderella no

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Speaker 3: longer Cinderella? And Gardner Minshew because in the games that

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Speaker 3: he had been playing for Anthony Richardson, he had been winning,

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Speaker 3: he had been covering, he had been playing, unlike Gardner Minshew,

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Speaker 3: who had gone winless for so long last week a

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Speaker 3: lot of bad turnovers, turnovers that took them out of

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Speaker 3: that game from the very beginning. Meanwhile, you get the

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Speaker 3: Browns at home backup quarterback. They just beat the team

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Speaker 3: that everybody thought was the best team in the NFL,

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Speaker 3: that had just beaten up on the Cowboys in an

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Speaker 3: embarrassing fashion that Catapult had brought Purdy to be seven

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Speaker 3: to one to win the MVP in the NFL. That's

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Speaker 3: overvalue City man versus a team at home that is

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Speaker 3: entirely undervalued because of how badly they played and because

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Speaker 3: of Gardner Minshew. Honestly, for me, it's a pass like

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Speaker 3: I want nothing to do with this game. So if

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Speaker 3: you want to play it, buy or beware.

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Speaker 1: Eagles minus two and a half. Another favorite, hosting Miami.

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Speaker 1: I think Miami, I've got a pretty good read. They're

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Speaker 1: a heavy weight with a glass chin. If you punch

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Speaker 1: them back, can get a rush with four. They fold

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Speaker 1: pretty quickly. Lane Johnson should play. That's a more comfortable

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Speaker 1: quarterback against the less comfortable quarterback. Miami will score. But

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Speaker 1: if you look at their defensive front for Miami and

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Speaker 1: the offensive front of Lane Johnson plays, this could be

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Speaker 1: ball control. I'minan I'm gonna take for the record, Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: night game at home. Watch the Phillies games lately, like

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Speaker 1: it's just different. I'm gonna take Eagles minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half. Sharper square totally sharp throughth is. This line

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Speaker 1: opened at one and a half and moved up to two.

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Speaker 1: Now it's a two and a half. It is a

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Speaker 1: pros Joe's game, right. The wise guys are one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent on the Eagles. The Joe's the amateurs, the squares

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Speaker 1: they are on the Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: And you mentioned a couple.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned two things that are really important here. One,

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Speaker 3: Lane Johnson, if he plays, this is a significantly different team.

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Speaker 2: When he doesn't.

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Speaker 3: I think they're ten and twenty two without Lane Johnson,

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Speaker 3: and when he plays, they're a super Bowl caliber team. Two,

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Speaker 3: Jalen hurts against pressure not so good. Jalen hurts when

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Speaker 3: he's not against pressure with teams that can't pressure him

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Speaker 3: more than forty percent of the time. I think he's

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Speaker 3: twenty and five in his career. So you're talking about

338
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Speaker 3: a Miami Dolphins team that is not great at pressuring

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Speaker 3: the quarterback, and you're talking about an Eagles team that

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Speaker 3: is coming off a loss that they were headed for.

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Speaker 3: You and I have talked about this, like, the Eagles

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00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 3: have been winning because they have a really good head coach,

343
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Speaker 3: they have a really good quarterback, they have really good

344
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Speaker 3: weapons on the edges, but they haven't been gelling offensively

345
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Speaker 3: at all. And also last week, Jalen Carter didn't play right.

346
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Speaker 3: He was resting, so this week he should be back

347
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Speaker 3: on defense. And the Eagles had that moment like, Okay,

348
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 3: we've been stealing wins. We were embarrassed by the Jets.

349
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Speaker 3: We understand better now what we need to do. We're

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Speaker 3: going to come back because that's who we are. The

351
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Speaker 3: wise guys are on the Eagles.

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Speaker 1: One more favorite I think I would take. I'm not

353
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Speaker 1: sure I love it, but I'm going to wait for

354
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Speaker 1: the injury report. Minnesota is just not that good. I

355
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Speaker 1: hear about how unlucky they are. Maybe that's not the issue.

356
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Speaker 1: Forty nine ers off a loss are a really good

357
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Speaker 1: football team. Minnesota is not. I don't think it's a

358
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:04,160
Speaker 1: great locker room. I don't think I don't think they

359
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,880
Speaker 1: create pressure situations for offenses. I think San Francisco will

360
00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:12,399
Speaker 1: control the ball at some point. If you do something

361
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Speaker 1: five or six weeks in a row, you're not unlucky.

362
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 1: It's who you are. And I don't think Minnesota is

363
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Speaker 1: very good. I think quietly in the building they're moving

364
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Speaker 1: off Cousins. They moved off to Alvin Cook. I don't

365
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Speaker 1: think it's I just I don't love this team. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to take the Niners minus six and a half.

367
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Speaker 1: Sharper square.

368
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Speaker 3: You are who your record says you are. Didn't some

369
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Speaker 3: brilliant coach say that one will ourselves. The Vikings are

370
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Speaker 3: not a very good football team. They weren't very good

371
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Speaker 3: last week against a terrible team and the Bears. The

372
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Speaker 3: only reason they won that game is because a second

373
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Speaker 3: string quarterback who's a rookie who had never played, came

374
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Speaker 3: in off the bench, fumbled scoop and score for the Vikings.

375
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Speaker 3: That was the difference in the game. Otherwise the Bears

376
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Speaker 3: with a backup quarterback win that game. Right, And so

377
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Speaker 3: this has been the center on the Vikings all year.

378
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,120
Speaker 3: People were fading the Vikings. They did not expect them

379
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Speaker 3: to win at the rate they did last year. There

380
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,000
Speaker 3: was gonna be a regression because of how many one

381
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 3: score games they won. This line has moved up from

382
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 3: six and a half it did seven. The wise guys

383
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 3: are hesitant to come in on big road favorites, but

384
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Speaker 3: in this case they are aligned with you.

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Speaker 1: All right, here's my one dog I don't love the

386
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 1: slate this week for dogs Chargers plus five and a

387
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Speaker 1: half at Kansas City listen, they're in close games, they're

388
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: a good team. I don't love them situationally. If it's close,

389
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: I'll take Andy Reid. But I think their personnel matches

390
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: up very well with Kansas City. It has with Anthony Linn,

391
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 1: it has with Brandon Staley. This feels like kind of

392
00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: a gimme. I don't ever love the Chiefs as a favorite.

393
00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 1: They're not a high fire power team. Now, they did

394
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 1: get their receiver back from the Jets, but it'll take

395
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,959
Speaker 1: probably a couple of weeks to get him right situated.

396
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Speaker 1: I'm going to take the Chargers plus five and a

397
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 1: half sharper.

398
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Speaker 3: Square, totally sharp, and Look, this is one of the

399
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Speaker 3: those games that's really interesting, right because you're talking about

400
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Speaker 3: it from multiple levels. Are you talking about what you're

401
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 3: seeing on the field. Check, you're going to take the Chargers.

402
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 3: Are you talking about what you see historically between these

403
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 3: two teams. Check, you're going to take the Chargers. Are

404
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 3: you talking about what you would see between two teams

405
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 3: in the division?

406
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 2: Check you're going to take the Chargers.

407
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,119
Speaker 3: Are you talking about what you would see from Patrick

408
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 3: Mahomes as a favorite of more than three points? Check

409
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 3: you're going to take the Chargers. So let's start at

410
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Speaker 3: the beginning. What you're seeing on the field. Justin Herbert

411
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,360
Speaker 3: has lost games by six or more points three times

412
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Speaker 3: in the past twenty three games. He keeps the games close.

413
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:44,640
Speaker 3: Their disadvantage is they have a terrible coach who does

414
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,199
Speaker 3: not put them in a winning position and makes the

415
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 3: most inconsistent, awful decisions at the worst possible time for

416
00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 3: this team to win. He just does right. So you've

417
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 3: got that moving against them. But it's also be the

418
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 3: talent is so good. Between what they have in the

419
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,119
Speaker 3: edge is what they have defensively, what they have with

420
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 3: Justin Herbert, they can stay in games two. The games

421
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 3: between these two teams are always close, right. Justin Herbert

422
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 3: has never not covered a six point spread. There was

423
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 3: one push because they went to overtime and they lost

424
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 3: by six points in overtime. So it's a great matchup

425
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 3: for these two teams. The Chiefs offense has not been gelling.

426
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes has now found the right rhythm with his

427
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 3: receiver Jet And then you're talking about teams in the

428
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 3: division in this scenario. Over the past twenty years, underdogs

429
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 3: have covered sixty there sixty games above five hundred covering

430
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 3: a number like this in the division. Meanwhile, the home

431
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: team covers at a forty seven percent rate in this

432
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 3: position when they are favorites. When they are favorites of

433
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:50,479
Speaker 3: three or more, it moves down to forty four percent.

434
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: And finally, Mahomes as a favorite of three and a

435
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 3: half or more, is far below five hundred because oftentimes

436
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 3: his favorite, when he's a favorite, he's a favorite of

437
00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 3: so many points, it's an impossible to cover. So in

438
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 3: every way, whether it's a trend, whether it's on the field,

439
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:06,120
Speaker 3: whether it's a system.

440
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 2: The wise guys like the Chargers.

441
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 1: Okay, now I ask you for a game to convince me,

442
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: and then a game I missed Green Bay. Denver's fascinating.

443
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: Aaron Jones comes back. I feel like there are limitations

444
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: to Jordan love. But it's a good locker room. It's

445
00:25:24,320 --> 00:25:28,479
Speaker 1: full of hope. I have a lot of continuity with Denver.

446
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 1: I don't know what the identity is. I don't like

447
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: the locker room. I don't think they do anything well.

448
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,679
Speaker 1: I do think the Packers do some things well. I

449
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: would tend to lean all of our odds provided by DraftKings.

450
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 1: I don't know what is it now minus one? Green Bay?

451
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 1: Is green Bay plus one minus one?

452
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 2: I would lean down to minus one?

453
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 1: Okay, I would lean green Bay. What's sharper square?

454
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:51,640
Speaker 2: The wise guys are on the Broncos.

455
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 3: This game opened to two, it's moved down to one.

456
00:25:55,920 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 3: It's ugly. They don't love the Broncos. Look their defense

457
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 3: played a little bit better against the Chiefs. The bigger

458
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 3: challenges should Jordan Love as a rookie who's played what

459
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:13,959
Speaker 3: five games as a starter consecutively, who looked good at

460
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 3: the first couple of games, but has really been missing

461
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 3: a lot of open targets. And as much as Matt

462
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 3: Lafleur is scheming to get him open targets, if he

463
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 3: can't hit the targets, then you can't cover the game.

464
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:27,680
Speaker 3: So now he's going on the road as a favorite.

465
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 3: There couldn't be less interests. There couldn't be a team

466
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 3: more undervalued than the Broncos. Because while Sean Payton has

467
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 3: been making Russell Wilson look brilliant in the first couple

468
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 3: of drives of every game, he kind of craters after that.

469
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 3: So a lot of fading of Russell Wilson. I think

470
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,680
Speaker 3: the biggest fear of the wise guys have in betting

471
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 3: the Broncos, which is the side their betting is from

472
00:26:51,320 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 3: now through the end of the year.

473
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 2: Are they just going to tank?

474
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 3: Are they getting tank and try to get Caleb Williams

475
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 3: and compete with the Bears or the Panthers for that

476
00:26:59,080 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 3: number one overall?

477
00:26:59,800 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 1: Pa?

478
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 3: Because which the Bears get the Panthers, by the way,

479
00:27:04,160 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 3: because he's got to look at this team and realize,

480
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 3: we don't have any talent. Our receivers can't get separation,

481
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 3: our quarterback can barely get plays called. He doesn't know

482
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 3: what he's doing to get the ball deep like it's

483
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 3: it's a pretty nasty situation there. But they're taking the Bromos.

484
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 1: And finally, an ugly game, a game I missed, A

485
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: game that you really have a strong opinion about, are

486
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 1: feeling about, but I just didn't discuss.

487
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 3: Oh my god, Colin, remember last week, I'm like, do

488
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 3: me a favor, you want to win take the Jets

489
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 3: plus seven against the team?

490
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: No, no, no, that wasn't ugly. I that was the

491
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 1: one blazing five. I should have gone three and two.

492
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 1: I went two and three. I liked that bet. I

493
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 1: didn't take it. It was my last bet the Jets

494
00:27:47,000 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: the last two weeks against the Broncos and Eagles was

495
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: my last bet out. So I like the Jets back

496
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: to back week, so that was a good pick. It

497
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: made a lot of sense.

498
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,159
Speaker 3: I also wanted you take the Browns, which was a

499
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 3: better pick and made a lot of sense and won.

500
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 3: So here's what I'm going to ask you to do.

501
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna I'm not the kind of guy Colin

502
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,679
Speaker 3: who rubs people's nose in their mistakes. That's not what

503
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 3: I do. Okay, here's what I want you to consider.

504
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 3: Can I interest you in the New York Giants plus

505
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 3: two plus two and a half hosting the Washington Commanders.

506
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,679
Speaker 3: So consider what I just said about the Chargers and

507
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and the underdogs historically being the advantage in

508
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 3: that situation. And then consider Tyrod Taylor, who, by the way,

509
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 3: has one of the lowest interception percentages based on the

510
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 3: number of games minimum attempts anybody in NFL history. And

511
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 3: then account for the fact that the offensive line played

512
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 3: a little bit better and the defense played a little

513
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 3: bit better against the Bills.

514
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:51,960
Speaker 2: Right.

515
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 3: So, now, all of a sudden, you've got a Washington

516
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 3: team that really they should have lost to Atlanta, like

517
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 3: they were outplayed in every respect in that game. And

518
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,720
Speaker 3: to me, there's a two pronged thing here. One, I

519
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 3: kind of like Atlanta as an underdog against Tampa for

520
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: all the same intradivisional reasons that I've talked about. And

521
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 3: also I think they were incredibly unlucky in that game,

522
00:29:14,360 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 3: with some regression coming because Desmond Ritter made so many mistakes,

523
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 3: but also that highlighted Washington and then made them overvalued. Look,

524
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 3: they've won some games, but they haven't won well, they

525
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 3: haven't been good. They lost to the Bears by twenty points,

526
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 3: so I don't know. I think the Giants are going to.

527
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 2: Be the side that the wise guys like. This week.

528
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: I thought most of the lines like I think Seattle

529
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: hosting the Cardinals. I thought, initially if it was six

530
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 1: and a half, I really like Seattle. I think people

531
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 1: have figured out Arizona. So it's seven. So if Blazing

532
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,320
Speaker 1: five was on Monday, I would have taken Seattle. Now

533
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 1: the numbers not good. My question is if it's seven,

534
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 1: so you take Seattle seven and a half, you don't seven,

535
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: do you? No?

536
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 3: No, no, I agree with you, and I think what

537
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 3: happened with Arizona is like it's another sort of Cinderella

538
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: story where the shine has come off a.

539
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: Little bit and people, we know what.

540
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 2: They figured that out right, And.

541
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 3: Honestly, the biggest challenge for them they lost James Connor.

542
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 3: Like he was bull rushing over everybody, right, and he

543
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: was really powering their offense. And without him, they really

544
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 3: don't have any weapons that scare anybody. So to me,

545
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: seven is a pass. If you could have gotten itto

546
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 3: six and a half, you know, like you could still

547
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 3: get San Francisco, you can get it at six and

548
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 3: a half. I think those are the two sort of

549
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 3: bigger favorites. The other game that's really interesting and this

550
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 3: one is like, remember for years we've been doing segments

551
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 3: like this together and every year I'm telling you you

552
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 3: got to take the Jags when they were terrible.

553
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 2: It's they're plus.

554
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 3: Thirteen and a half on the road. You got to

555
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 3: take the Jags. That's what the wise guys are going

556
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:59,360
Speaker 3: to do. The New England Patriots had become the jack.

557
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 1: I can't I told you I can't. When I can't

558
00:31:03,520 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: watch a team, I can't bet him.

559
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: So you can watch the Green Bay Denver.

560
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: Game fascinated by Sean Payton and Russell Wilson fascinated And

561
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,240
Speaker 1: is Jordan Love gonna make it or not? If Jordan

562
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: Love is a lousy Sunday we have to be honest

563
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: here sitting for three years completing fifty five percent of

564
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: his throws with Matt Lafleur. If he can't move the ball,

565
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: we got a white flag thing here, like you can't

566
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: keep defending him. So that game's got a lot like

567
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 1: we know Russell's not gonna last. But if Jordan Love struggles,

568
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: you cannot sit there by the way, C J. Stroud,

569
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: no offensive lineman, can't run rookie play caler rookie coach

570
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 1: game one good. He can't be in a place four

571
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: years and complete fifty five percent of your throws. I

572
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 1: don't want to hear about Kristin Watson's not available. Give

573
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 1: me a break. So, I mean, I think that game

574
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: is actually whatever the word is the French word for

575
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 1: so ugly. It's attractive, that's greed bay better.

576
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,840
Speaker 3: You know it's interesting. So I come from a startup

577
00:32:06,880 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: culture with Action Network, right, you're building a really valuable, strong,

578
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 3: incredible business with the volume. Yeah, if you're in a

579
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 3: venture backed business. One of the best phrases I ever

580
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 3: heard some of the folks who helped to who bankrolled

581
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 3: Action when we started, is are you being intellectually honest

582
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,959
Speaker 3: about what you're looking at? Meaning? Can you look at

583
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 3: the data? Can you make a decision not based on

584
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 3: what you want it to be, not based on what

585
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 3: you think it could be if X factors hadn't impacted

586
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,920
Speaker 3: the numbers. It's like, can you look at the numbers?

587
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,880
Speaker 3: Can you say, Okay, this is what's happening, and then

588
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 3: can you make decisions about the business going forward based

589
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 3: on those numbers, regardless of your input into deciding how

590
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 3: you got to that point or if it's going against

591
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 3: what you believed it should be. Same goes if it's

592
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: going well, Like can you be intellectually honest about examining

593
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 3: what you see in front of you? Can the packers

594
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 3: be intellectually honest about Jordan Love if he continues to

595
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 3: be a fifty five percent completion rate pastor who who

596
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 3: misses open looks?

597
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:16,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think you know my favorite saying.

598
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 1: By the way, you mentioned your favorite saying, it was

599
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: so funny somebody the other day, I have a plaque

600
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:25,479
Speaker 1: in my office and they saw the plaque and they

601
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: got all excited, like orders. You get that amateurs chase

602
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: the sun and get burned. Power stays in the shadows.

603
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 1: That the smartest people are strategic. The amateurs want to

604
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,959
Speaker 1: get noticed and get headlines. The smart people do all

605
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:45,720
Speaker 1: their business behind the scenes. And I don't know why

606
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 1: I brought that up apropos of nothing. I do think

607
00:33:50,400 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 1: Green Bay they're decent people. And the problem sometimes you know,

608
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 1: there's a reason there's a lot of money in New

609
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: York and in Wall Street and in tech world. People

610
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: are harsh and they're brutal. And I don't think the

611
00:34:12,080 --> 00:34:14,520
Speaker 1: Steelers could move off Kenny Pickett for three years because

612
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 1: he's a Pittsburgh kid, because it's the decency of the Rooneys.

613
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 1: And I think Green Bay is going to stick with

614
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,520
Speaker 1: Jordan Love because that's what good people do. They give

615
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 1: young people a chance. And I think Pittsburgh and green

616
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 1: Bay this solid foundationally respectful. They're always looking for value.

617
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: They're the guy at a nightclub wearing Dockers. They're not cool,

618
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 1: but they're probably the richest guy in the room. And

619
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:43,760
Speaker 1: I don't think the Steelers can be honest about Kenny Pickett,

620
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: and I don't think the Packers for a year or two.

621
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 1: And by the way, if i'm both, I'm drafted a

622
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 1: quarterback this year, not first or second third round quarterback.

623
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 1: I just want somebody in the room to compete with them.

624
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: There's plenty of talent. But I do think sometimes what's

625
00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: hurt Green Bay in Pittsburgh is this unwillingness to just

626
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 1: be harsh and harsh in our businesses. Sometimes it works

627
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 1: like I've got to make a horribly hard decision, You're fired.

628
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 1: It sucks, but it sometimes it's what's needed in professional football.

629
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: Like Bill Belichick, Bill will Bill, your statue, your tone deaf.

630
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: We got to get off Bill Belichick. That seems incredibly hard.

631
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 1: But Philadelphia fired Andy Reid, the Cowboys fired Tom Landry.

632
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 1: You know what, Both the Eagles and the Cowboys did

633
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: just fine. And we both love Andy Reid. So I

634
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 1: think the Jordan Love question is do they have the

635
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 1: stomach for it. I don't know if they do.

636
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 3: It's a hard it's a hard question to answer, and

637
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 3: after five games of data, nobody is going to be

638
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 3: ready to do that. After you know, twelve games of

639
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,879
Speaker 3: data with Kenny Pickett. Nobody is going to be ready

640
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,799
Speaker 3: to do it, but I think you can do it.

641
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 3: After a season. That's when you start to get a

642
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 3: full data set. Right when we talk about betting, all

643
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 3: of the data I give you is going to be

644
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:20,520
Speaker 3: based on the data set of at least one hundred games.

645
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 3: You need to have like a full picture to understand

646
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 3: is it a trend? Is it something that someone can overcome?

647
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 3: Is it something that people were overperforming? Like what were

648
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:33,320
Speaker 3: the factors?

649
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 2: Right?

650
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 3: And then all of a sudden, you have the full

651
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:40,040
Speaker 3: data set and you've got a much cleaner look at

652
00:36:40,080 --> 00:36:42,320
Speaker 3: what the real pattern is, and you know if someone's

653
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:44,839
Speaker 3: gonna change it or not. And so then you got

654
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 3: to ask yourself, with someone like Jordan Love, what was

655
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:49,280
Speaker 3: the missing factor?

656
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: You know, we've talked about this before.

657
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,440
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts in year one was good, but there were

658
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 3: questions about how good of a full quarterback he could be,

659
00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 3: how good of a pastor he could be. Year two,

660
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 3: you get Aj Brown, you get DeVante Smith comes along.

661
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 3: If you're a quarterback, you need to have weapons you

662
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 3: believe in. You need to have weapons who can make

663
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 3: you look better. You need to have weapons that you

664
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,279
Speaker 3: feel comfortable throwing a fifty to fifty ball. Same thing

665
00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:12,120
Speaker 3: with Josh Allen as Stefan Dicks. Josh Allen his first

666
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 3: couple of years was not nearly as good as he

667
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 3: was when he got Stefan Dicks right, and then all

668
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 3: of a sudden his game changed. I think there was

669
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 3: hope that Justin Field would be that with DJ Moore,

670
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:22,720
Speaker 3: I think the patterers are going to have these questions

671
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 3: about Jordan Love if he doesn't get a full season

672
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 3: of Christian Watson being a number one caliber receiver, They're

673
00:37:30,239 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: gonna have to make a call. Do we have to

674
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 3: get a receiver? Is Jordan Love someone that we believe

675
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 3: can grow into being a great quarterback? By the way,

676
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 3: you like the Bears this week, Well, of course I do.

677
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 2: I mean it's a wise guy spy, you know. I

678
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 2: was funny.

679
00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 3: I was talking with my co host Simon Hunter on

680
00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 3: The Favorites this morning, and I had told him on Tuesday,

681
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 3: I feel like the wise guys are going to be

682
00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 3: on the Bears. And then on Thursday we always do

683
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 3: this segment called Sharp Calls, and we're like, the wise

684
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 3: guys are giving us feedback on what we talked about

685
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 3: on Tuesday, and they all liked the Bears, And it's

686
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 3: a lot of the same principles we've been talking about. Right,

687
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 3: the Bears are undervalued, They're a terrible team. Meanwhile, you

688
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 3: got the Raiders coming in. Should the Raiders be three

689
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 3: point favorites against anybody?

690
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 2: Right?

691
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:21,840
Speaker 3: They weren't even three point favorites at home against the Packer,

692
00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 3: against the Patriots, and all of a sudden they're going

693
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 3: on the road. They're a badly coached team with a

694
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 3: backup quarterback who's been in the league for fifteen years, Like,

695
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:34,919
Speaker 3: this is not a scenario where they should be a

696
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:36,440
Speaker 3: field goal or more favorite.

697
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 2: So yeah, wise guys are going to be in the

698
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 2: Bears as olways.

699
00:38:41,000 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 1: Chad Melman, it's good seeing you.

700
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 2: Always a pleasure brother.

701
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: The volume