1 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Gloomberg eleventh ry oh to Washington, 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:12,000 Speaker 1: d C Bloomberg to Boston Bloomberg twelve hundreds, to San 3 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Francisco Bloomberg nine to the Country Series Exam Channel one nineteen, 4 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio plus Aven Bloomberg 5 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:25,200 Speaker 1: dot Com. This is Bloomberk Surveillance. Good morning, I'm Karen 6 00:00:25,280 --> 00:00:27,600 Speaker 1: Moscow along with Tom Keene and Michael McKee and the 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 1: opening now brought to you by American Arbitration Association. Business 8 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: disputes are inevitable, resolve faster with the American Arbitration Association, 9 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 1: the global leader in alternative dispute resolution for over eighty 10 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: five years. Learn more at a d R dot org. 11 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:46,920 Speaker 1: Stock higher at the open the SNP five hundred or 12 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: four tenths per cent or eight points to twenty seventy 13 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 1: Dow Jones industrial average up about four tens percent or 14 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: sixty six points to seventeen thousand, seven d eighty eight. 15 00:00:55,640 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: Then as to acts up seven tenths percent or thirty 16 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: three points to five ten. Your treasury down four or 17 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 1: day seconds. The yield one point seven eight percent. The 18 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: yield on the two year point seven five percent. Nimax 19 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: herd Oil down one percent or forty four cents to 20 00:01:09,560 --> 00:01:12,399 Speaker 1: have already won seventy three of barrel Comx goal down 21 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 1: eight ten percent or nine dollars ninety cents at twelve 22 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,120 Speaker 1: fifty one, announced the euro A dollar thirteen ten the 23 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: end one oh nine point one too, Tom and Mike 24 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 1: Karen thanks so much. He was not on the conference 25 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: call for JP Morgan. David Kelly is with JP Morgan Funds, 26 00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 1: where he is chief global Strategist. Good to catch up 27 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,960 Speaker 1: with him, given, Uh, the SWIRLD that's out there, Mike, 28 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 1: there's like eighteen ways to go here. I'm gonna start 29 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: with Animal Spirit. David Kelly, where is Global nominal g 30 00:01:44,240 --> 00:01:48,800 Speaker 1: d P? Is it alive? Uh? It's pretty slow. Um. 31 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: The problem is that there's no particular part of the 32 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: world is actually adding to growth right now. Um. You know, 33 00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: the global economy is a tortoise's not a hair right now. 34 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:00,960 Speaker 1: So we've got low and state and overall we don't 35 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: have any real pockets of strong growth. And of course 36 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: we go places like Russia and Brazil and Venezuela and 37 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 1: so forth in recession. But having said all that, I 38 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: still think the global economy is moving forward. I don't 39 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 1: see anything that's going to push the global economy actually 40 00:02:15,639 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 1: into a free fall here. Well, if that's the case, 41 00:02:20,040 --> 00:02:25,839 Speaker 1: then are we properly priced in the major indexes at 42 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 1: this point? Well, the thing that's most out of whack 43 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,640 Speaker 1: is is the pricing of central banks UM, and and 44 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,799 Speaker 1: where short term interest rates are, because, as I said, 45 00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: you know that this is this, this is a boring 46 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 1: global economy. It's a tortoise, but it doesn't seem to 47 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: be under any particular threat. But monetary policy is positioned 48 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: in the developed world for depression. And because of that, 49 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 1: short term interest rates are extraordinarily low. And given how 50 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 1: low those short term rates are, UM, I think risk 51 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 1: acids still look relatively attractors. So I'd still be a 52 00:02:56,120 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 1: little overweight equities in this environment globally, despite the valuations 53 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: are pretty normal, because you know, although evaluations are normal 54 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:07,919 Speaker 1: for equities, they are not normal for cash. Well, at 55 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 1: this point, UM, then you know, what's what can you 56 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: say about the outlook UH? Since we seem to not 57 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 1: be necessarily coupled to what's going on in UH the 58 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: economy and and UH and our fundamentals, Well, I think 59 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:28,519 Speaker 1: I think we have we have to have some patients here. 60 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: I mean, these are these are going to be troubling 61 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: times over the next few weeks. We we've got we're 62 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,560 Speaker 1: gonna have a nasty first quarter GDP report out of 63 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: the US. I'm thinking that we could be as weak 64 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: as negative one percent, depending on how the inventory numbers 65 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,560 Speaker 1: come out at ten UM. That's that's gonna be a 66 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: bit of a shock to the system and and it's 67 00:03:47,160 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: going to be a pretty weak first quarter earning season also, um. 68 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 1: When we look at the economy in the way it's operating, 69 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,160 Speaker 1: and when we look at earnings, I think we're going 70 00:03:55,200 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: to see a big bounce back by the end of 71 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: the year, but it's a little unnerved and have to 72 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: wait that long for for that bounce back. Does does 73 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 1: the dynamics of what I'm gonna call economic cash flow 74 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: sustain and that we've had a huge lack of labor productivity, 75 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: good capital productivity, maybe not great, all of the benefit 76 00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: going to corporations. You see that in use of cash. 77 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 1: You see that in dividend growing. You see the dividend 78 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: ETFs out to new highs, balloon chip cash generators out 79 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: to new highs. Does that change given exogenous factors, or 80 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,799 Speaker 1: does that change given central bank temperament over the next 81 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 1: say three years. I think it will eventually change. But 82 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,479 Speaker 1: you really highlighted what the problem is. The problem is 83 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,360 Speaker 1: that the places cash is in the world are in 84 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: the hands of people who aren't don't aren't inclined to 85 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: spend it. Uh. You know, one of the problems of 86 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: growing inequality is that if you give a poor person 87 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: how the dollars, they will spend hound the dollars. If 88 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: you give a corporation to hundred dollars and they don't 89 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 1: don't ever get into a liquidity crisis, don't ever fold 90 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: the clutches of the central banks or anybody else. They 91 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: will simply stash it away in the in the vault 92 00:05:09,440 --> 00:05:12,280 Speaker 1: and added to their their war chest. And so I 93 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: think there's a lot of war chesting going on and 94 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 1: not enough enough. They's expending by by companies and consumers, 95 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 1: and that's really part of the problem, and it's being 96 00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: caused by central banks. Well that's true certainly in the financials. 97 00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: Um Well what about in other companies You give them 98 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 1: a hundred dollars and they're just sitting on it or 99 00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:34,360 Speaker 1: using it to buy back stock. Well, well, that's right, 100 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 1: and and part of the problem, I mean there's it 101 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: does come back to central banks to some extent because 102 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 1: I think that they're they're contributing to low nominal GDT growth. 103 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 1: And one of the problems for companies is if you 104 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:46,719 Speaker 1: can tell them that their market is going to grow 105 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,200 Speaker 1: by ten percent or twenty percent or thirty percent over 106 00:05:49,240 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 1: a number of years, they will invest. If you tell 107 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:53,599 Speaker 1: them the growth is gonna be very slow, they don't 108 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:56,040 Speaker 1: really have that much of an incentive. The other thing 109 00:05:56,080 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 1: that's very that really hurts growth in the US is 110 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: UH a very complicated and punite of corporate tax structure, 111 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 1: which keeps cash overseas and companies have to put cash 112 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:08,840 Speaker 1: in a little bit of pockets to try and hide 113 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: it from the from the tax man as opposed to 114 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:13,479 Speaker 1: actually deploying it. Yeah. Well, our John Tucker knows that 115 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: it is every third week trip to Panama that he's been. 116 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: You're on a cheeta borrow on that, John. Yeah, well, 117 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 1: I can't really say, you know, I look, Mike McKee, 118 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 1: I think this is important. The dividend, one of the 119 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:30,719 Speaker 1: dividend ETFs is up six point percent change over the 120 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: last ugly ten years, coming pretty much off the Lehman lows. 121 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 1: It's up seventeen point two percent per year. I mean, 122 00:06:38,880 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 1: the world's coming to an end. Nominal GDP is terrible, 123 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: and people like David Kelly are having have faith. That's why. Well, no, 124 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: nominal GDP is is terrible, and we're seeing earnings recession. 125 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: I mean for a year now we've watched earnings contract 126 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: and the forecast. Sorry, this is going to continue for 127 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:02,799 Speaker 1: a while. So David, at what point does it turn? 128 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: At what point do companies start to believe again? Is 129 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: it going to take some sort of action in Washington 130 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 1: and Congress to change the tax code or can something 131 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,280 Speaker 1: happen absent that. Well, well, for the first thing that 132 00:07:15,440 --> 00:07:17,239 Speaker 1: I do take issue a little bit with the concept 133 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: of an earnings recession, because to me, a recession is 134 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:23,880 Speaker 1: a broad based decline in earnings, and this is very 135 00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 1: much the dollar in oil. Okay, I got interrupt. This 136 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: is incredibly important, this insight. You just said, Dr Kelly, 137 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: Are we in a cash flow recession? Um? No, I 138 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: don't think we're in any I don't think we're actually 139 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: in any recession. I think I think over overall corporations 140 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 1: um their profits outside of the dollar head wind and 141 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: the oil headwind is those profits are positive. And what's 142 00:07:46,560 --> 00:07:48,520 Speaker 1: going to happen by the end of this year is 143 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 1: those headwinds are going to turn into tailor winds and 144 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: profits going to bounce back to double digit year over 145 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: year growth. So I do think we will see that, 146 00:07:55,840 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: but it's it's contributing to a you know, an atmosphere 147 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: of gloom when we you know, the fact that earnings 148 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: are down year over years. So I think that's part 149 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: of the problem in terms of a catalyst. I mean, 150 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: it's the ultimately you need you don't you don't need 151 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: more government actions. That's that's really been the whole problem 152 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 1: for the last twenty years, is that everyone's the mindset 153 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: of what is the government going to do about the economy, 154 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: And the more the government does about the economy, the 155 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 1: more it squashes the animal spirits and the natural greed 156 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 1: which would cause businesses and consumers to go ahead and 157 00:08:31,760 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 1: make a bit of money for themselves. Um. So I 158 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: really feel that the the the constant morphine drip of 159 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,960 Speaker 1: federal regulation and uh super easy and appropriate to easy 160 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 1: money is actually slowing long from growth slowing demand around 161 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: around the world. What the government needs to do is 162 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 1: get out of the way. We're hearing more and more 163 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: people say that time we are, and not within a 164 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 1: political stance. Someone less political as David Kelly will come 165 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: back with the chief Global Strategist JP Morgan funds as 166 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: well with the optimism. I'm not on the record watch yet, 167 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: but we are getting there abruptly. Seventeen thousand, eight fifty 168 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: six on the dall Up hundred thirty vics fourteen point 169 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:19,439 Speaker 1: four three. This hour of surveillance brought to by Volvo 170 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 1: Cars White Planes. Visit Volvo Cars White Planes dot com. 171 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 1: Here's Michael Barr with headlines, Thank you very much. Mike 172 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 1: Tom A South Carolina judge is being asked to delay 173 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: the state death penalty trial of Dylan Rufe. Rufe has 174 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,960 Speaker 1: charged with nine accounts of murderer after prosecutors say he 175 00:09:35,000 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: went into a Charleston church last year and shot black parishioners. 176 00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 1: Ruf's attorneys say starting the trial as schedule on July 177 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:46,040 Speaker 1: eleven won't give them enough time to mount in adequate defense. 178 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,320 Speaker 1: Health officials say at least thirty states could potentially be 179 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: at risk for the zeke of virus. Dr Anthony Fauci, 180 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infections Diseases 181 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,560 Speaker 1: at the National Institutes of Health, says, the more that 182 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 1: is about ZEKEA, the scarier the virus is. Its ability 183 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,520 Speaker 1: to cause damage to the neurological system is really getting 184 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,280 Speaker 1: right rather concerning, even more so than we thought originally. 185 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: The House of Representatives yesterday passed a bill to speed 186 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: up Zeka Drug research. US charges a workplace discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual, 187 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: and transgender employees jumped twenty eight percent last year, according 188 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: to the chairman of the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. 189 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,680 Speaker 1: More and more people are willing to talk about the issues, 190 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,520 Speaker 1: Jenny Yang told Bloomberg. The national dialogue has really shifted 191 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: global news twenty four hours a day, powered by our 192 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 1: twenty four hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news 193 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 1: bureaus from around the world at Michael Barr to Michael, 194 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: thanks so much. We do Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, 195 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:49,400 Speaker 1: front and Center up on it in thirty three on 196 00:10:49,679 --> 00:10:53,679 Speaker 1: the DAO sp up thirteen points seventy four with David 197 00:10:53,760 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 1: Kelly of JP Morgan Bloomberg surveillance. Bloomberg's valance brought to 198 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 1: by Bank of America Mary Lynch, committed to bringing higher 199 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 1: finance to lower carbon named the most innovative investment bank 200 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:11,240 Speaker 1: for climate change and sustainability by the banker. That's the 201 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 1: power of global connections, Bank of America in a f 202 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:19,920 Speaker 1: D I C global business news twenty four hours a day. 203 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 1: If Bloomberg dot com the radio plus mobile lact and 204 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: on your radio, he's a Bloomberg business flash and I'm 205 00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 1: camer in moscown. This's updates ronty. You buy national realty 206 00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 1: returns on cash and rented real estate, find them at 207 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 1: n r I A dot net. US docks rising for 208 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 1: a second day, buoyed by improving Chinese trade data and 209 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: better than expected results from JP morgan Chase, the biggest 210 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: US lender by assets. We checked the markets every fifteen 211 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 1: minutes throughout the trading day. On Bloomberg, the S and 212 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: P five hundred is up seven tenths per cent, up 213 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:53,600 Speaker 1: thirteen points at seventy five down Jones Industrial average up 214 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: eight tenths per cent or a hundred thirty three points 215 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: to seventeen thousand, eight hundred fifty four and then as 216 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 1: DAK up one percent or forty seven points to forty 217 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 1: nine one nine Tenure Treasury is down four thirty seconds, 218 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: the yield one point seven nine percent. The yeld on 219 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 1: a two year point seven five percent nine night screwed 220 00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: oil down one point six percent or sixty nine cents 221 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 1: to forty one forty seven of barrel comas goal down 222 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: one percent or twelve dollars twenty cents at twelve forty 223 00:12:17,559 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: eight seventy and ounce. The euro a dollar twelve ninety 224 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: three and one oh nine point oh eight. JP morgan 225 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,439 Speaker 1: Chase is up three and a half percent this morning 226 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 1: after reporting first quarter profit that was boosted by pay 227 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:33,200 Speaker 1: cuts and trading revenue that declined less than most analysts predicted. 228 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,559 Speaker 1: JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and three other major 229 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:39,679 Speaker 1: US banks failed to persuade regulators they could go bankrupt 230 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 1: without disrupting the financial system. It can now face a 231 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,839 Speaker 1: tighter leash from Washington after government agencies used one of 232 00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:49,520 Speaker 1: the most significant post crash powers bestowed under the Dodd 233 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: Frank Act. And that's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and 234 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:56,920 Speaker 1: Mike Karen, thanks so much. One of my great phrases, folks, 235 00:12:57,000 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: is nobody cares. When I get upset, I'll say nobody cares. 236 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 1: Nobody cares about business inventories usually Michael McKee, I was 237 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: suggest in eleven minutes nobody cares goes out the window. 238 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 1: A lot of people care about business inventories. Explain why 239 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: and then bring it into Mr Kelly gotta turn on 240 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: the red button. Um. Business inventories a key piece of 241 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 1: the GDP number because inventories are counted as just playing 242 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: around in warehouses because they were it was built, it's counted. 243 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:31,959 Speaker 1: Now business inventories are expected to decline and that could 244 00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 1: push the initial guesses about GDP negative. This is a 245 00:13:37,520 --> 00:13:40,800 Speaker 1: February number, though we'll get another one in March, and 246 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: uh you know it all just continues to to to 247 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: point to what marks Andy said about paying attention to 248 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 1: the jobs numbers as opposed to the GDP numbers. David Kelly, 249 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: I heard you laughing there about business inventories. It was 250 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: like it was like third week in March and school. Remember, yeah, yeah, okay, 251 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:00,439 Speaker 1: I don't need to know that for the exam to 252 00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: business inventories matter right now? Oh yeah, I think they do. 253 00:14:04,080 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 1: I mean that they are going to shape that first 254 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 1: quarter GDP number. Because the problem is, you're right, we 255 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: get the March numbers, uh um in in a month. 256 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: But the problem is the first quarter GDP is going 257 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: to come out with the government's estimates of March and 258 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: you know, depending on you know, how strong or how 259 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:22,480 Speaker 1: weak the number is on retail inventories today. Um, you know, 260 00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: I think we could be down as much as one 261 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 1: percent on real GDP for the first quarter. I think 262 00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: it will clear. I think things will get better going forward. 263 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: But one of the problems is that a year ago 264 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,960 Speaker 1: we were accumulating inventories very fast. We're getting back to 265 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 1: a normal level of accumulation. But if you do that 266 00:14:36,960 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: as you slow down production, and that's one of the 267 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: things that think's going to show up in the GDP report. Well, 268 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: at this point, does does it make more sense, as 269 00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 1: Mrs Andy said, to ignore the GDP numbers and look 270 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: to the jobs numbers. I think I think so, because 271 00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 1: I think there are a lot of problems with these 272 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: GDP numbers. I mean, if GDP comes in negative, that's 273 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 1: going to be in a quarter in which pay un 274 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:03,680 Speaker 1: employment rose by one point nine percent annualized and household 275 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 1: employment rose by four percent. Annualized, and the only thing 276 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: is just getting back to these inventory numbers. I mean, 277 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:12,040 Speaker 1: you know, I do think that inventories will be growing 278 00:15:12,040 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: more slowly. But when I look at surveys on whether 279 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: people actually say they've got too much inventory, but don't 280 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 1: say that. I mean the service sector in the manufacturing 281 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: sector is saying inventories are about right. So I don't 282 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:24,600 Speaker 1: even know that businesses regard their inventories as being too high. 283 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 1: So there's a lot of noise here, and I think 284 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,440 Speaker 1: I would trust the employment numbers a little bit more 285 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 1: than the GDP numbers, particularly in the first quarter they have. 286 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: I have a real problem getting the first quarters right. 287 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: What's the run rate on non firm payrolls right now? 288 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 1: With our new demographics are new American dynamics? Is two 289 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: oh five like better than good? Or is that average? No, 290 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: that's that's better than that's that's better than good. Right now, 291 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: we've had a big revival in labor force participation just 292 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: in the last six months, and we've added something like 293 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 1: two point four million people to the labor force. I 294 00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: think what's happening is that a lot of people who 295 00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 1: were on things like disability and then so forth coming 296 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: back into the labor market. But that's a short term effect. 297 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:04,760 Speaker 1: In the long run, our labor force is only going 298 00:16:04,800 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: to grow by about five tenths will present per per 299 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: per year, and that means anything above about eighty thousand, 300 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: ninety thousand jobs per month will actually push unemployment down. 301 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,880 Speaker 1: So two other thousand is way above the normal run rate. 302 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 1: UH at this point, should we then be optimistic pessimistic neither? 303 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 1: I think. I think the whole key is to to 304 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: understand what sort of economy we have here. You know, 305 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 1: we we sort of think about the economy is a 306 00:16:35,200 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: thirty year old under performing, and this economy is really 307 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 1: a six year old performing just as expected. This is 308 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,120 Speaker 1: a slow, older economy. It's going to grow more slowly 309 00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:45,800 Speaker 1: the long run, but relatively those expectations, it's doing what 310 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: it's supposed to do. And I think a lot of 311 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:50,480 Speaker 1: our problems coming from trying to get this economy heated 312 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 1: up and jacked up in a way that it's not 313 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: gonna It's not gonna work in an economy with the 314 00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: low labor force growth, the low productivity growth, you just 315 00:16:57,640 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: kind of pushing more demands and this kind of a 316 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,560 Speaker 1: calm me doesn't really work, David when I when I 317 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 1: look at this and link it into investment, I want 318 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,840 Speaker 1: to go back to a doll again. Your record highs. 319 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: Many chips breaking out the record highs. If we can 320 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: all agree collegiately, it's been the most unloved rationalized bull 321 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 1: market since time began. What do you actually do at 322 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,720 Speaker 1: JP Morgan Funds? They come in with a pot of money, 323 00:17:23,800 --> 00:17:27,360 Speaker 1: Some of us have a smaller pot. What's the David 324 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:31,280 Speaker 1: Kelly to do list? In the equity market, you just 325 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 1: acrost the average in No, I don't think you don't. 326 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:37,119 Speaker 1: I don't really believe in that. I mean, as for 327 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: the most part, I mean dollocost averaging will give you 328 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: half the expected to return on cash and half the 329 00:17:41,760 --> 00:17:44,560 Speaker 1: expected return equities. UM, if you believe that the keeping 330 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: is not the timing, it's is just being allocated appropriately. 331 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: I do think there's you know, US equities, we've got 332 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: some upside here. I think UM high qualities, ext income, 333 00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:57,120 Speaker 1: treasuries in cash, I think I got underweight. But also 334 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 1: look at international equities. I mean, I think there's an opposite, 335 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: a sick local opportunity. In Europe, it's got to years 336 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: of growth ahead of it. I think there's a long 337 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 1: term opportunity and emerging markets. I know it's it takes bravery, 338 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:08,040 Speaker 1: but I think this is a good time to be 339 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: a little bit braver there. But but the key thing is, 340 00:18:10,520 --> 00:18:12,159 Speaker 1: you know, if cash pays you nothing, you need to 341 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:17,399 Speaker 1: get invested in something. And and to review here, you 342 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: think equities over ponds where you're going to clip the 343 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:23,359 Speaker 1: coupon and not get total return. Um, I you know, 344 00:18:23,440 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: I think I think you should look for total return. 345 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: I understand that that dividends are very fashionable because everybody's 346 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: trying to get their their portfolios to give them a 347 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: certain amount of income. But that means of stuff that 348 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: produces income. He is actually a little expensive to stuff 349 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: that produces growth. So I'd rather as a long term 350 00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: investor by the stuff that's producing more growth and the 351 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 1: less income. Actually, David Kelly, thank you so much with 352 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: JP Morgan Fund. So it's just a great synthesis and 353 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 1: very brilliant whether you or disagree with the uh the 354 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,680 Speaker 1: view and I like that idea of you know me persistent, 355 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 1: find find what you're comfortable with and go with it. Mike, 356 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 1: what did we learn in the last three months? Well, 357 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,880 Speaker 1: maybe it's six months and in the last six hours 358 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: about the GDP analysis. Friends that you have been brilliant 359 00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: over the years, Bloomberg on the Economy and Bloomberg surveillance, 360 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: you and the Amaron Richie Amaron of being measured about 361 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:22,879 Speaker 1: market data hysteria. Are we going to a new level 362 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:28,639 Speaker 1: of idiocy with week by week, day by day analysis 363 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 1: of something as complex as vasily Leonti couldn't figure it out. Well, 364 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: you know, it's not the data that the make the mistakes. 365 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 1: It's the people who react to the data. So I 366 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 1: guess it's the question of what you do with it. 367 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 1: It's the you know, the the Atlanta FED and the 368 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 1: New York FED. Without getting into the details of their methodology, basically, 369 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: they're just counting things up. They're giving you the numbers 370 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: as they shake out. You know, some things they have 371 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,080 Speaker 1: to impute, so that's why they're not always exactly correct. 372 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,159 Speaker 1: But it doesn't really tell you anything you didn't know. 373 00:20:07,520 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 1: What it does give us is another data point to 374 00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:11,840 Speaker 1: trade on, and traders got a trade, so they're always 375 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 1: looking for something. The next obvious question, and this is 376 00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,199 Speaker 1: with great respect to the many interviews you've done with 377 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,400 Speaker 1: the FED over the years, and I think of our 378 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:23,440 Speaker 1: colleague Kathleen Is as well. Is this becoming a competitive 379 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: game between independent, wonderful research houses. Every FED has a 380 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: unique character, a unique skill set, And I'm sorry these 381 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 1: guys are as competitive? Is the New York Rangers in 382 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: the Washington in in the Pittsburgh Penguins. I mean, I 383 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:43,600 Speaker 1: mean we're getting into a competition of economic data? Is 384 00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 1: that good? Uh? You know it, It's neither good nor bad. Again, 385 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:50,640 Speaker 1: it gets back to just the fact that they take 386 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: the data and they put it into their models. And 387 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: if you're serious about it, you look at what the 388 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 1: models are and you decide whether you agree with the 389 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: way they figure it out. All the bank have done 390 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,240 Speaker 1: financial and economic research for years. It's just a matter 391 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 1: of sorting it out. Yeah. But but to take a 392 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: counter factual, are we smarter now about the American labor 393 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: economy because we've had a DP for X number of years? 394 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,360 Speaker 1: Not necessarily because we've had a DP. It's another data 395 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:22,160 Speaker 1: point to pluge another, and and it has it has 396 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: some impusition issues, but uh, you know, we have more 397 00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,640 Speaker 1: data and more accurate, more timely data than we ever did. 398 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 1: And then overlight with the I s M frenzy. I mean, 399 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 1: you know, Bangladesh just coming out with six I s 400 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: M series. Now I'm kidding folks, but the answers, there's 401 00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: an I s M p P. Yeah, there were. Manufacturing 402 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: is one of the best ways to to figure out 403 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: how many countries economies are doing, not necessarily the US. 404 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,280 Speaker 1: And we got a headline here speaking. This wraps it 405 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 1: up perfectly. Time magazine apparently did an interview with Janet Young. 406 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 1: Here's the headline on Bloomberg U, there is uncertainty in 407 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: the economy, Janet yell and repeats that uncertainty warrants cautious 408 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 1: approach by the fan. There it is the headline. And 409 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 1: what's great about some dogs is there's no difference between 410 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,600 Speaker 1: asking Cherry yelling New York Federal, Atlanta Fed GDP now 411 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,919 Speaker 1: or Cherry yelling do you go with Abbie Joseph Cohen's 412 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 1: Washington Capitals or the dreaded Philadelphia Flyers. I put about 413 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 1: the same waiting. She's she's going with the Islanders. She's 414 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: going to the Islanders. This is Bloomberg surveillance. Have a 415 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:28,160 Speaker 1: great Stanley Cup