1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. 7 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us on Balance of Power alongside 8 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 3: Tyler Kendall here in the nation's capital on what is 9 00:00:31,600 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 3: expected to be the last day of the longest government 10 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,479 Speaker 3: shutdown in American history. The votes are teed up for 11 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 3: a few hours from now, and we're going to have 12 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 3: a special edition of Balance of Power for you starting 13 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 3: at five pm Eastern as all of this is set 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 3: to get going with Tyler, as we kind of unpack 15 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 3: everything that we just heard from Kevin Hassett really interesting. 16 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 3: Beginning with the shutdown itself, he says it will have 17 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 3: an impact on GDP, which could come in quarterly between 18 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 3: one and a half two percent. For the year, he's 19 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 3: targeting about two percent. Set inflation is not all the 20 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 3: way down to where you'll want it to be, was 21 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 3: the quote. But he agrees with the presidents that rates 22 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 3: can be a lot lower. 23 00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 2: Right. 24 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,120 Speaker 4: I was actually pretty struck by the laughter in the 25 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 4: room when he was asked why he would want to 26 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 4: be the next bed chair. Of course he's on the 27 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 4: shortlist for that. He also said, if he's reading the 28 00:01:16,440 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 4: tea leaves, he's looking at a likely twenty five basis 29 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 4: point cut when the FMC meets in December. But of course, 30 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 4: the backdrop here the fact that we haven't gotten as 31 00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 4: much economic data as there should be. As we try 32 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 4: to weed through the forecast. 33 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 2: We're learning a little more about that. 34 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 3: By the way, I guess within forty eight hours of 35 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 3: the government reopening, we'll get a new calendar from BLS, 36 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:36,840 Speaker 3: and then you know, it's off to the races at 37 00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:37,199 Speaker 3: that point. 38 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 2: Liz PENCOTTI is with us. 39 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,320 Speaker 3: I'm glad to say, managing director Policy Advocacy at the 40 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 3: Groundwork Collaborative, having listened to that conversation and sort of 41 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 3: noting broadly what's happening here against the backdrop of a 42 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 3: government shut down, Liz, welcome back. It's great to see you. 43 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,040 Speaker 3: This is going to have an impact on data. The 44 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 3: question is when do we start seeing data. BLS is 45 00:01:57,040 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 3: going to take some time and We're never going to 46 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: fill these gaps that we have for the month of October, 47 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 3: are we No. 48 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:04,400 Speaker 5: I mean, there was some data collection that was already 49 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 5: in process prior to the government shutdown for what was 50 00:02:07,240 --> 00:02:11,119 Speaker 5: to be released in October. The government shutdown on September thirty. 51 00:02:10,880 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 2: We get a stale September Jobs report. 52 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 5: We'll get a stee September Jobs report, we may get 53 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:18,919 Speaker 5: some CPI indications, kind of a mini release, and then 54 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 5: we will hopefully start to get back to collecting data. 55 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:25,120 Speaker 5: Some of the data that goes into especially the jobs report, 56 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 5: is reported on a pretty continual basis. It is not 57 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 5: a survey that phone calls or online surveys have to 58 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 5: go out to households. It's kind of incoming data. So 59 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 5: it's sifting through that, analyzing it, and then getting the 60 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 5: surveys back on track. That will probably take a couple 61 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 5: of weeks to get those stale reports, and then hopefully 62 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 5: by the beginning of the year we'll have an accurate picture. 63 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 5: But of course the FED we'll have to meet once 64 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 5: again before that without that full picture. 65 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 4: So let's talk about where we currently stand from what 66 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 4: we do know. What are the indicators that you've been 67 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 4: watching for as we try to piece together a picture 68 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 4: particularly related to the labor market, because of course we're 69 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 4: talking about two missed monthly jobs reports. 70 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,240 Speaker 5: Yeah, un Fortunately, the private sector data, as you both know, 71 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 5: is not always the most high quality or the most sensitive. 72 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,359 Speaker 5: You know, we've seen ADP kind of all over the place. 73 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 5: But what we have seen is record numbers of layoffs 74 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 5: when we look at the Challenger report, That to me 75 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 5: is a little bit concerning. We had started to see 76 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 5: layoffs tick up, but they were still within a normal range, 77 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 5: and we got information from Challenger last week that they 78 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 5: were really at historic highs. The other thing I have 79 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 5: been watching is among small businesses how hiring has been faring. 80 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 5: And we've seen both in Gusto, another private payroll processor, 81 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 5: and ADP. Those small business numbers not look great. Small 82 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,640 Speaker 5: businesses obviously employ about half of workers in the United States. 83 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 5: They have been hit the hardest by tariffs, just unable 84 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 5: to kind of increase inventories and keep cash on the 85 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 5: books as interest rates are very high. So those are 86 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 5: the couple of things I am looking out for. And 87 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 5: then we've gotten some indications that seasonal temporary hiring will 88 00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 5: be down through the season. Which is typically a big 89 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 5: kind of push. In many areas. We saw Spirit Halloween 90 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 5: really slow their openings, and we are seeing for the 91 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 5: retail spending ahead of the holiday season that not to 92 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 5: look so great given where consumers are, and so a 93 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 5: lot of retailers are holding back on hiring. 94 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,799 Speaker 3: Caroline Levitt was just asked about the lack of data 95 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 3: she's holding forth in the White House briefing room. Now, 96 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 3: the Press secretary at the White House check this out, 97 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:30,440 Speaker 3: Liz October CPI in jobs data likely never to be 98 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 3: released for October. I guess you can't go back in 99 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 3: time and get that snapshot. Will it be more difficult 100 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 3: for the Federal Reserve to understand the impact of this 101 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 3: government shutdown if we start putting numbers on data like 102 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,159 Speaker 3: this between one and a half to two percent growth 103 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:49,000 Speaker 3: this quarter according to Kevin Hassett. What happens though, when 104 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 3: you cut off forty two million Americans from snap benefits 105 00:04:52,360 --> 00:04:54,239 Speaker 3: for a month, What do you know what the impact 106 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 3: of that is? 107 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:58,599 Speaker 5: The snap benefits, you know, even knowing what when they'll 108 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 5: be turned back on is something we we don't know 109 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:02,479 Speaker 5: right now. A lot of states were able to send 110 00:05:02,520 --> 00:05:05,520 Speaker 5: out at least partial benefits, either because governor stepped in 111 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:08,560 Speaker 5: or we had a couple of late breaking court rulings 112 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,000 Speaker 5: forcing some of that money to go out. The administration 113 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,440 Speaker 5: has not committed to a specific schedule for when those 114 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 5: benefits will resume going out. I think, you know, there's 115 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 5: a tension in wanting to know what the effects of 116 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 5: the shutdown were after the shutdown is over, and for 117 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:24,280 Speaker 5: the FED, especially in other policy makers, to know what 118 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 5: the current state of the economy is. I would put 119 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 5: those in the opposite order of we need to know 120 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 5: exactly what our economy looks like right now so we 121 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,680 Speaker 5: can make decisions about interest rates, about fiscal policy. It 122 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 5: would be nice to have that historical look back, but 123 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 5: missing one month is not catastrophic. I think the bigger 124 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 5: issue is that we are unlikely to have that data 125 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 5: by the FED meeting in a couple of weeks here 126 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:49,040 Speaker 5: for the current snapshot, which is the more concerning thing 127 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 5: to me than missing those data points. But you know, 128 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,160 Speaker 5: we saw the President a couple times in the last 129 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 5: week say inaccurate things about how prices are down. We 130 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 5: saw that Walmart report about a Thanksgiving meal costing us, 131 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 5: when in fact they were just moving around all of 132 00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 5: the items that go into that. I think the more 133 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 5: and more that the administration tries to rely on fuzzy 134 00:06:08,680 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 5: private market data as they you know, withhold that information 135 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 5: about the typical reliable government reports, that to me is 136 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 5: more concerning. 137 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:18,760 Speaker 4: I did want to ask you also about the broader 138 00:06:18,839 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 4: backdrop of the economy here when it comes to tariffs. 139 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:22,960 Speaker 4: You brought up tariffs. It was also part of this 140 00:06:23,000 --> 00:06:25,359 Speaker 4: conversation that we just heard with Kevin Hassett, and he 141 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 4: said that the administration is considering some of these other 142 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 4: tariff authorities as the Supreme Court looks at the big 143 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 4: one i EPA, those broad based tariffs based on emergency powers. 144 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,520 Speaker 4: We are. President Trump earlier this week suggests that there 145 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:43,039 Speaker 4: could be two thousand dollars refund checks. How do these 146 00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 4: headlines jive when you have the administration looking at disbursing 147 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 4: money from tariff revenue, but also preparing a backstop if 148 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:53,839 Speaker 4: those tariffs get struck down. 149 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:56,120 Speaker 5: You know, in the Supreme Court arguments last week, we 150 00:06:56,200 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 5: really saw these solicitors struggle with how to respond to 151 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 5: questions from the just just says about these revenue effects 152 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,160 Speaker 5: of the tariffs. They say they're minor the President tweets 153 00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 5: out that they're going to be four jillion dollars, the 154 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 5: President truths again that they're going to be three trillion dollars, 155 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 5: and they're going to fund stimulus checks. I mean, it's 156 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 5: really all over the place and quite incoherent. I'd say, 157 00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:17,280 Speaker 5: on the checks, I am not running out to put 158 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 5: two thousand dollars on my credit card because I think 159 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 5: the government will be sending me a check in the 160 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 5: next thirty days, and I would not suggest that anyone 161 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 5: else do so. And then, you know, I think we're 162 00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 5: likely even if the Supreme Court does weigh in on 163 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 5: those emergency i EPA tariffs. The Trump administration has signaled 164 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 5: and they have even started, you know, over a dozen 165 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 5: investigations using those other authorities on specific inputs, so that 166 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 5: could be you know, copper, aluminum, semiconductors, but we could 167 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 5: see those spread to other industries using other authorities, some 168 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 5: of which you know, could allow him to enact time 169 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 5: limited across the board tariffs of ten to fifteen percent. 170 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,840 Speaker 5: Others would require six month typically investigations before they could 171 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:56,760 Speaker 5: put higher rates on. 172 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 3: Them, so there would be an interruption then waiting for 173 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 3: the next round of tariffs to come in that world. 174 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 3: Would the money need to be paid back during that 175 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 3: period of time? I guess the court needs to decide that, Lizen, 176 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 3: I won't make you decide that now. 177 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 2: I guess the question I have is what happened? 178 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 3: President says it will ruin the country, It'll destroy the 179 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 3: country to pay back what he says is three trillion dollars. 180 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 3: It seems to be in the billions, not the trillions. 181 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 3: But what would be the impact of running checks like that. 182 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 5: There's kind of two separate things happening right here. So 183 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 5: one is if the IEPA tariffs that have been somewhat 184 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 5: collected over the last six months my customs, there are 185 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 5: lots of delays and lots of kind of mixed implementation 186 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 5: of those. If the Supreme Court strikes down those tariffs, 187 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 5: there are already companies lining up as part of class 188 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 5: action lawsuits trying to get those refunds from the Treasury 189 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 5: Department for the tariffs that they've paid. I think it's 190 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:49,040 Speaker 5: very unlikely those would then be passed on to consumers, 191 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 5: though some consumers did directly pay those tariffs on shipments 192 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 5: to their doorsteps. 193 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 2: To get the class action lawsuit. 194 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,679 Speaker 5: Going correct, which is a whole other disaster and of itself. 195 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 5: And I think you have both seen how long it 196 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 5: takes for lawsuits to work through our court system. So 197 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 5: that's one aspect. The President is separately suggesting that these 198 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 5: magical dividend checks will be sent out to consumers that 199 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 5: are completely separate, so those would be funded by the 200 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 5: revenue from the tariffs coming in. The tariffs, which could 201 00:09:15,960 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 5: of course be interrupted by the Supreme Court's ruling. But 202 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 5: as you said, there are not three to four trillion 203 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 5: dollars worth of revenue. We have at most seen you know, 204 00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 5: two to three hundred billion dollars taken in in revenue, 205 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 5: and the administration has drawn on that pot of money 206 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 5: to pay for this, that and the other over the 207 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:34,319 Speaker 5: course of the last six months, trying to pay troops, 208 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 5: or trying to pay snap benefits, or you know, paying 209 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 5: for the ballroom. I mean there. He seems to view 210 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:42,920 Speaker 5: this as kind of an unlimited slush fund. Whether he 211 00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 5: spends it or tweets it out, this is really not 212 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:47,959 Speaker 5: a thing I think the American people can rely on. 213 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:50,200 Speaker 4: We actually have a great story on the Bloomberg terminal 214 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 4: about how there's already a case forming for a class 215 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 4: action so that we could see those tariff reefunds paid 216 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 4: out more broadly, because we know that the issue of 217 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 4: universal junctions has come up before with this administration on 218 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 4: it sticking on at tariffs. We heard from the Treasury 219 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:07,760 Speaker 4: Secretary Scott Besson earlier today who said that we could 220 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 4: see some potential planned reductions when it comes to things 221 00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:15,120 Speaker 4: like coffee, bananas, other food that we don't grow here 222 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 4: in the US. How would targeted reductions work and does 223 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 4: that make a dent when we're talking about potential pass 224 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,680 Speaker 4: throughs and prices for consumers. 225 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:30,200 Speaker 5: The targeted carve outs are very complicated to implement, as 226 00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 5: are the broad sweeping tariffs that the President has put 227 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 5: into place. They also seem to the administration has historically 228 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 5: not stuck with the thing that they announced. So do 229 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 5: I think that it will be smooth sailing for exempted coffee, bananas, 230 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 5: et cetera. No, because none of these tariffs have been 231 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 5: smooth sailing. I think this is a really fascinating press 232 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 5: tour that you know, both Vest and Hassett are doing 233 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,080 Speaker 5: right now, where they realize that American people are very 234 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:57,240 Speaker 5: frustrated with higher prices. The President campaigned on lowering prices. 235 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 5: On day one last week, he walked this back, saying 236 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 5: that's a twenty six priority for them. So I guess 237 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 5: this is kicking off that tour. But you know, a 238 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 5: couple of months ago, the President said groceries, what a 239 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:07,959 Speaker 5: fascinating word. 240 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:08,240 Speaker 6: No one. 241 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 5: I wonder where that word came from. And I guess 242 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 5: now he has figured to help them. In fact, the 243 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 5: American people do care about their grocery prices. We of course, 244 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 5: do not grow coffee or bananas here in the United States. 245 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 5: It's not so much about onshoring supply chains just genuinely impossible. 246 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 5: And so now they are exploring these you know, limited 247 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 5: carve outs. We have seen the President look at other 248 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 5: limited carveouts. There was a deal struck with Apple where 249 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,840 Speaker 5: they would be able to get out of semiconductor tariffs. 250 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 5: These have been you know, implemented in different ways, and 251 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 5: in many cases tariffs are not being collected anyway because 252 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 5: there's so much confusion at the border. So do I 253 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 5: expect you know, bananas to magically become cheaper at the 254 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 5: grocery store in the next couple of weeks. No, I 255 00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 5: mean coffee's up twenty thirty percent over the past year. 256 00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,240 Speaker 5: And there are a number of other grocery costs that 257 00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,720 Speaker 5: are not so impacted by the tariffs. Ground beef is 258 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 5: up double digits over the past year. Given other issues 259 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 5: in the economy that tariffs will not really affect, though, 260 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 5: I guess the president is looking at increasing imports from 261 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 5: Argentina to fix that problem. 262 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 3: Well, he does cite beef pretty frequently. That is, the 263 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 3: whole grocery store is cheaper, but beef is the cost 264 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:11,120 Speaker 3: that we need to deal with. And of course he's 265 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 3: running a foul our ranchers here in the United States, 266 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 3: the cattlemen who have been not terribly happy about that idea. 267 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 2: What is his obsession with grocery? You brought this up? 268 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 3: He says it's an old word, a beautiful word, a 269 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 3: strange word, grocery, And then he started using blt as 270 00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 3: a descriptor of what grocery is, bacon, let us tomato. 271 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 3: Has he ever been in a grocery store? Ah, that's 272 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 3: a great question, being serious about that. 273 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,559 Speaker 5: I would love to have, you know, a Bloomberg reporter 274 00:12:34,640 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 5: ask that the next time that they get a press 275 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:38,080 Speaker 5: briefing question. It's a good one. 276 00:12:38,120 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 3: You remember the gallon of milk with George Bush. These 277 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 3: used to be like treacherous ground for a politician. It's 278 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:42,880 Speaker 3: not anymore, is it. 279 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 6: Yes? 280 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 5: I mean I remember President Joe Biden opening up a 281 00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 5: bag of chips and saying, there's not too many curritos 282 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 5: in here, right. I think, you know, maybe we'll see 283 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 5: as part of this press store Donald Trump going to 284 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 5: Kroger and take a couple of things off the shelf. 285 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 2: I would be seriously when this stuff happened. 286 00:12:57,240 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 5: How long it's been since he went into a Kroger 287 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 5: and pulled a cup things off the shelf. But you know, 288 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 5: we saw in elections last week in Virginia, New York City, 289 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 5: and New Jersey and even in Georgia where power bells 290 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 5: were on the ballot that Americans are really frustrated by 291 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 5: the prices they're paying, whether it's at the grocery store, 292 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 5: the gas pump for rent. And I think the President 293 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 5: hates to be an unpopular guy. His approval readings on 294 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,440 Speaker 5: the economy and inflation are in the tank, and he 295 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 5: realizes that he's going to have to get acquainted with 296 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 5: the beautiful word groceries if he wants to turn it around. 297 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 2: It's a little fashion word, Tyler. 298 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 4: Yes, okay, well, this has been great insight after that 299 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 4: conversation between Kevin Hassett and Yeah. 300 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:34,560 Speaker 2: I'm glad we can spend some time. This is a 301 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 2: great dive. 302 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:37,080 Speaker 3: We should keep this going actually, as long as the 303 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 3: press tour is on the radio. 304 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 4: All right, Liz Pancotti, Managing director of Policy and Advocacy 305 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 4: at the Groundwork Collaborative, thanks so much. 306 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 2: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 307 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,040 Speaker 2: more coming up after this. 308 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 309 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 310 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:02,839 Speaker 1: apple Cocklay, Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen 311 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:06,000 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 312 00:14:06,040 --> 00:14:07,959 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 313 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 3: Counting down to some important votes in the House of 314 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 3: Representatives on what is expected to be the last day 315 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 3: of the longest government shut down in American history, and 316 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,240 Speaker 3: it's a pleasure to bring in a voice from the 317 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 3: House of Representatives now that the Chamber. 318 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 2: Is back in session. 319 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 3: Democratic Congressman Rocanna of California is with us live from 320 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 3: Capitol Hill, and Congressman, it's good to see you back 321 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 3: in the Capitol here welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 322 00:14:31,880 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 2: We've missed our conversations. 323 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 3: I know that a lot of Democrats are pretty unhappy 324 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 3: about the way this has gone in the Senate, and 325 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 3: you're not terribly happy with the way Senator Chuck Schumer 326 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 3: has handled things. Now that the bill is coming into 327 00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 3: your chamber, are you a no vote? 328 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 6: I'm a no vote because I don't believe we can 329 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 6: sit idly buy like while twenty million Americans face astronomical 330 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 6: spikes in their healthcare, we have a moral responsibility to 331 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,480 Speaker 6: make sure people have food assistants, to make sure they 332 00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 6: have healthcare, and we're not meeting that moment. 333 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:05,920 Speaker 2: A congressman. 334 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 4: President Trump has said that he's willing to negotiate on healthcare. 335 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 4: Isn't it better to negotiate what the government reopened, alleviate 336 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 4: the stress on our air travel system, get food benefits 337 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 4: to Americans, and pay our federal workers. 338 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 6: Well, we could have done all of that. I mean, 339 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 6: the president held this country hostage. He refused to release 340 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 6: aid food aid for Americans, which would have cost nine 341 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 6: billion dollars, while he's giving forty billion dollars to a 342 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 6: corrupt libertarian in Argentina. My question for the President is 343 00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 6: why aren't you putting Americans first? Why are you withholding 344 00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 6: aid from American kids and giving money to Argentina Instead, 345 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 6: we should have been funding the food, We should have 346 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 6: been funding our federal workers and paying our troops, and 347 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,280 Speaker 6: then we could be negotiating on healthcare to make sure 348 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 6: that twenty million people under Donald Trump's watch are not 349 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 6: going to have the largest increase in healthcare since Barack Obama. 350 00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 3: We understand that you will have a new colleague in 351 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 3: the House as of a couple of hours from now. 352 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 3: Congressman is Adelita Grihalva is at last sworn in, having 353 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,280 Speaker 3: been elected on September twenty third. This means only a 354 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 3: two vote margin if you will for Speaker Johnson in 355 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 3: passing this CR minibus package. It also means you have 356 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 3: the vote that you need to bring the Jeffrey Epstein 357 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 3: discharge petition to the floor of the House. How quickly 358 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 3: do you expect that will happen and does it need 359 00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:27,080 Speaker 3: to pass the Senate? 360 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 6: I expect that Adelita Grihova will sign today that gives 361 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 6: us two and eighteen and early December. 362 00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:36,600 Speaker 2: We will have a vote. But look, the. 363 00:16:36,480 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 6: Epstein class in American politics need to go. These are 364 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 6: rich and powerful people who either covered up for Jeffrey 365 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:47,280 Speaker 6: Epstein or who themselves abused young girls, and the American 366 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 6: people are tired of it. They're tired of one set 367 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 6: of rules for rich people who have friends who are politicians, 368 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,520 Speaker 6: and another set of rules for ordinary Americans. So I 369 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 6: believe the House will pass this, and it's going to 370 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 6: send a message for the full release of the Epstein 371 00:17:01,720 --> 00:17:05,080 Speaker 6: files and for the Senate to pass it. 372 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 3: I know that you want to bring obviously all members 373 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 3: to account on this and have them take a vote, 374 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 3: which will take place in the House. But to be clear, 375 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 3: it does need to pass the upper chamber to force 376 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 3: the release of these files. 377 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:23,119 Speaker 6: Congressmen, it does, and I believe that the vote margin 378 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:25,680 Speaker 6: in the House will matter. If it just seeks through, 379 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 6: the Senate may kill it. But if we get forty 380 00:17:28,320 --> 00:17:31,679 Speaker 6: to fifty Republicans, as I am hearing we may, then 381 00:17:31,760 --> 00:17:33,199 Speaker 6: it's going to put a lot of pressure on the 382 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 6: Senate to act. 383 00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:38,719 Speaker 4: We're seeing the Democrats on the House Oversight Committee release 384 00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,520 Speaker 4: their own tranch of I believe twenty thousand emails today. 385 00:17:42,520 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 4: Could you give us any insight into the timing here 386 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 4: is this to coincide with your new colleague coming in 387 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 4: and momentum behind the discharge petition. 388 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 6: Well, we had a subpoena the Epstein estate. I had 389 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 6: written a letter to the Epstein estate with mister Comer, 390 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 6: and we had gotten these files. And one of the 391 00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 6: things we got today we're emails where Jeffrey Epstein is 392 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:07,439 Speaker 6: talking to Glaine Maxwell saying that Donald Trump is aware 393 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 6: that they're underage girls at the Epstein estate, and so 394 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 6: it implicates Trump in the Epstein files. And there's much 395 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,240 Speaker 6: more to be released, but we just need it all 396 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 6: out there. We need transparency. 397 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 2: You made clear on Twitter. 398 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 3: The only reason these emails are out is that at 399 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 3: Lawrence has the survivor's lawyers on who gave me the 400 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 3: tip to subpoena of the estate. You asked, why did 401 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 3: Justice or the FBI not get and release these Do 402 00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:38,080 Speaker 3: you have an answer? 403 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 2: I don't. 404 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 6: I mean here they were claiming they're doing a thorough investigation, 405 00:18:42,520 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 6: they're going to do everything, and then you have a 406 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:48,160 Speaker 6: congressman who's more focused on economic issues than anything along 407 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:52,160 Speaker 6: Laurence O'Donnell, and a lawyer for the survivors basically says, hey, 408 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 6: tell the congressman, you should write a letter to the estate. 409 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:57,720 Speaker 6: They have the documents, and so I write a letter 410 00:18:57,760 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 6: to the estate and get the documents. And you're telling 411 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:02,240 Speaker 6: me that the FBI and the Justice Department couldn't do that. 412 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:05,480 Speaker 6: Of course they could. They haven't taken this investigation seriously. 413 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 6: That's why Congress has gotten involved. We need a full 414 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:10,200 Speaker 6: release of the Epstein files. 415 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 4: In the final minute that we have you, Congressman, I 416 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 4: know that you have been working on a ban crypto 417 00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 4: corruption legislation. Now that the House is back in session, 418 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,000 Speaker 4: can you give an update to us on this. And 419 00:19:24,040 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 4: I'm also curious about the linked here to your purchase 420 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,040 Speaker 4: the ranking member on the Armed Services Committee, what's the 421 00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 4: national security angle to this legislation. 422 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:37,920 Speaker 6: Well, members of Congress and the President and their families 423 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 6: should not be trading cryptocurrencies and they should not be 424 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:46,080 Speaker 6: trading stock. But look, the president's family has made millions 425 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 6: of dollars on cryptocurrency. They sold World Liberty as a 426 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 6: stable coin, and they have this guy who's gotten now 427 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 6: a pardon, a foreign billionaire who's basically accepting payments of 428 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,960 Speaker 6: world This should not be going on. It makes us 429 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 6: vulnerable to foreign countries to foreign interests, and so my 430 00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 6: bill is simple. No trading of cryptocurrency by any elected official, 431 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 6: whether it's in Congress, whether it's the Presidency, whether it's 432 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,159 Speaker 6: the Supreme Court as an appointed person. 433 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 4: All right, Congressman Rocana, Democrat representing California's seventeenth district, thanks 434 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 4: so much for joining us here on Bloomberg Television and radio. 435 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,639 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 436 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 3: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 437 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 438 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 439 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com