WEBVTT - Bloomberg's Micklethwait on Potential Upheaval of Brexit(Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com, the Radio plus mobile, last, and on your radio.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business Flash from Bloomberg World Headquarters.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Charlie Pellette's stocks are heading for their longest losing

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<v Speaker 1>streaks since February, down four in a row, this amid

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<v Speaker 1>growing uncertainty about the UK's future in the European Union.

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<v Speaker 1>We will have more on that topic the Brexit vote

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<v Speaker 1>coming up in just a moment. Also, investors are awaiting

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<v Speaker 1>tomorrow's Federal Reserve announcement. So here's where we stand. The

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred index down nine now at two thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>sixty nine, a drop of five tenths of one percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Then ASTAT Composite Index down twenty one points to forty six,

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<v Speaker 1>That is a drop of five tenths of one percent down.

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<v Speaker 1>Industrials down ninety two points to seventeen thousand, six hundred forty,

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<v Speaker 1>a drop of five tenths of one percent. Gold up

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<v Speaker 1>a dollar forty benounced to twelve eighty eight, a gain

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<v Speaker 1>there of point one percent. Crude oil West Texas in

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<v Speaker 1>immediate down fifty three cents for five barrel, down one

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<v Speaker 1>point one percent, Brent down one and a half percent

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<v Speaker 1>to forty nine dollars and sixty cents. I'm Charlie Palett

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<v Speaker 1>and that's a Bloomberg business flash. The Brexit vote on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. Brexit. Yes June, the twenty three voters in

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<v Speaker 1>the United Kingdom will go to the polls to determine

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<v Speaker 1>whether they will remain in the European Union. And right

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<v Speaker 1>now in London there is a debate going on with

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<v Speaker 1>Boris and Johnson, former Mayor of London. He is debating

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<v Speaker 1>the Brexit vote. He of course for the Brexit vote.

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<v Speaker 1>He is debating Alex Salmon of the Scottish National Party,

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<v Speaker 1>which formerly had voted to remain part of the United Kingdom.

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<v Speaker 1>Here to tell us more about this is John mickel Twite.

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<v Speaker 1>He is editor in chief of Bloomberg Editorial. John, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you very much for being here. Um, I wonder if

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<v Speaker 1>you could just describe a little bit about you are

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<v Speaker 1>interview with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and his

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<v Speaker 1>thoughts about Brexit. Well, the interview with Blair is interesting

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<v Speaker 1>from this perspective. On the one hand, m Blair said

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<v Speaker 1>that he expected Britain to remain in the U and

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<v Speaker 1>to be fair to him, that was before a stream

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<v Speaker 1>of very negative polls, but the same token, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it'd be fair to say, and I don't think he

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<v Speaker 1>would dispute this too much. A lot of parts of

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<v Speaker 1>what he might regard as Britain are slightly coming to

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<v Speaker 1>bits at the moment. You have, um, the sense of

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of third way we're all together, center left

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<v Speaker 1>politics that seems to be coming part. There's something very

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<v Speaker 1>similar to the trumpets about the brexitters. Um, there is

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<v Speaker 1>great disquiet with the idea of globalization, whether it's through immigration,

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<v Speaker 1>through elites making too much money, through free trade, all

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<v Speaker 1>those things. You know, Britain is arguably the most pro

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<v Speaker 1>free trade place in the world, but they're still particular

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<v Speaker 1>disputes that immigration. And then at the end of it,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's just that sense of things that the

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<v Speaker 1>politics as we thought we knew them beginning to pray

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<v Speaker 1>a bit, and it could all be all right, It

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<v Speaker 1>could all be fine in the end. Most people, including me,

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<v Speaker 1>still expect remain to win, but it's it's very very close.

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<v Speaker 1>Is this an instance where anybody who's in the government

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<v Speaker 1>now formally, I mean, is there a kind of more

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<v Speaker 1>unity internal there's even less. There's massively less unity because

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<v Speaker 1>the parties are in the following state, the Conservatives, which

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<v Speaker 1>are the traditionally euroskeptic party. There you have, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's a hundred and something of Cameron's MPs all fighting

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<v Speaker 1>to leave. Labor is meant to be the party that

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<v Speaker 1>is sort of fully behind staying that. It's leader Jeremy Corbyn,

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<v Speaker 1>extremely left wing man by Americans. I haven't talked to

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<v Speaker 1>him recently, but he is. He is definitely off the left,

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<v Speaker 1>but he's also part of the old eurosceptic left. He's

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<v Speaker 1>quite elderly in these respects, and he you know, he

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<v Speaker 1>has been at the best, I think, a very lukewarm

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<v Speaker 1>supporter of staying. In his speeches tend to be saying

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<v Speaker 1>things along the lines of the European Union is useless

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<v Speaker 1>at this, terrible at that, awful at this, but I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose you better remain in it. And strangely that that

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<v Speaker 1>appeal doesn't really seem to be working. So you have

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<v Speaker 1>labor not really helping and and the vote will rely

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<v Speaker 1>a lot, I think, on on labor voters if it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be remained, coming out to do it and

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<v Speaker 1>The other big problem is the young, who are the

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<v Speaker 1>other people who in paper look as if they support Remain,

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<v Speaker 1>but we have no evidence that they're definitely going to

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<v Speaker 1>get to the polls, whilst the old who want to

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<v Speaker 1>leave definitely will. The latest Paul the decision to leave

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<v Speaker 1>has is at forty six percent, an increase of three,

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<v Speaker 1>Remain is at forty one point three, decline of about

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<v Speaker 1>seven tenth of a percent. In your conversation with the

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<v Speaker 1>former Prime Minister Tony Blair, you spoke a lot He's

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<v Speaker 1>book about social media and how that can influence not

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<v Speaker 1>only this but the entire political discussion in a country.

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<v Speaker 1>Expand on that. Yeah, and there's a bit of that.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you look at it's possible. I've got

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<v Speaker 1>friends and indeed relations are on the Leave side, and

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<v Speaker 1>you can you can sit in from Leave um Land

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<v Speaker 1>in the same way as you can sit in Trump

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<v Speaker 1>Land or for that matter, in Saunders Land. And it

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<v Speaker 1>means that you can get most of your information from

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<v Speaker 1>pundits who are intrinsically opposed to the European Union in

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<v Speaker 1>its many ways. Um. It means also, you know, it's

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<v Speaker 1>not just obscure websites. This morning, the Sun, the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>tabloid in Britain, came out firmly behind Leave, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting on two counts. One, it is the most powerful

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<v Speaker 1>sort of political voice in Britain. Rupert Murdoch has never

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<v Speaker 1>been a great support of the European Union. It's proprietor.

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<v Speaker 1>But the other thing is Rupert Murdoch doesn't genuinely generally

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<v Speaker 1>like backing losers, and so the fact that he feels

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<v Speaker 1>confident enough to come out in in favor of leading

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<v Speaker 1>is again another straw in the wind. And at the

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<v Speaker 1>moment there aren't many good straws in the wind for

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<v Speaker 1>the remain thing other than the instinct amongst most of

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<v Speaker 1>the commentary at that probably in the end people will

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<v Speaker 1>will be sufficiently frightened by what leave could mean. In

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<v Speaker 1>my view, justifiably well they will say I want to stay.

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<v Speaker 1>We had a story recently this week on on Lubrick

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<v Speaker 1>News the quantity of just modeling for a maxioma coming

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<v Speaker 1>out with research which suggests there be pretty quickly in

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<v Speaker 1>equities uk A crees in globle markets if the lead

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<v Speaker 1>vote goes through, because it would create so much a people.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, what happens then I think that's that's it,

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<v Speaker 1>and that if you were going to explain to the

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<v Speaker 1>leavers John Mcolthwaite, who you're more of a remainer, what

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<v Speaker 1>would what would be the So that's the difficult point.

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<v Speaker 1>On the one hand, um Leave campaign has gained from

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<v Speaker 1>the idea that the remainders have tended to exaggerate, UM

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<v Speaker 1>the horrors of if prison did this, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>they're right in this respect, is that it's got a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty strong, big economy. Um, if it leaves the Open Union,

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<v Speaker 1>it's still houses are still going to stand. There is

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<v Speaker 1>still going to be something there. Um. On the other hand,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it is possible to say that the negative

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<v Speaker 1>consequences of leaving could actually potentially be quite high. You

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<v Speaker 1>just have to look at all these things like maybe

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<v Speaker 1>Scotland leaves the United Kingdom, maybe other bits the Union

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<v Speaker 1>begin to come to bits and you have this immense

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<v Speaker 1>As you've said, declining your currency is not a not

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<v Speaker 1>a small thing to consider. It's certain. Listen, who thought

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<v Speaker 1>we thought we'd be talking about the better reserve? First?

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<v Speaker 1>Ye had two day meeting. I'm sorry to know everyone

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<v Speaker 1>in the world is looking at that Brexit vote on June.

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<v Speaker 1>This is taking stock on Bloombird Radio. Coming up on

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<v Speaker 1>taking stock. While the search for safe haven puts yields

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<v Speaker 1>under pressure, there's been a big sell off in the

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<v Speaker 1>bonds of Greece and Portugal. Let's talk about what happens

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<v Speaker 1>to those countries next