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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up,

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Speaker 1: straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Friday,

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Speaker 1: December ninth, And what a night of football from Baker

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Speaker 1: Mayfield in his debut with the Los Angeles Rams. I

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Speaker 1: feel like you've got to play um going back to

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Speaker 1: Callie some sort of Welcome to l A. Baker Mayfield,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Los Angeles folks. For three plus quarters last night,

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Speaker 1: the l A Rams looked completely dead. The game was

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Speaker 1: unwatchable dreck. It was total garbage. Raiders couldn't do anything

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Speaker 1: in the red zone. But they're leading like it's a

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Speaker 1: wired to wire coast to the victory. It was very

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Speaker 1: similar to what the New Orleans Saints were doing in

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Speaker 1: Tampa on Monday night. And then on Monday the Goat

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Speaker 1: woke up Tom Brady two long drives in the final

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Speaker 1: six minutes. Bucks win, Bucks win. So the only difference

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Speaker 1: here is Tom Brady is the Goat and he pulled

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Speaker 1: off an amazing comeback, I think one of the greatest

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter comebacks of his career. The big difference here

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Speaker 1: is Baker Mayfield arrived in Los Angeles on Tuesday. On

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Speaker 1: Thursday night, forty eight hours later, the guy is orchestrating

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Speaker 1: an unbelievable comeback. Just just consider this. The Rams went

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Speaker 1: seventy five yards a nine minute drive, just a marathon drive,

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Speaker 1: basically chewed up the bulk of the fourth quarter. They're

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Speaker 1: down sixteen three. They've gotten no hope. And what does

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Speaker 1: Baker do. Baker delivers. All he does is keep making

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Speaker 1: fourth down conversions happen. Absolutely, just unbelievable stuff from Baker Mayfield, who,

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Speaker 1: by the way, is on his third team this calendar year. Now,

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Speaker 1: they were helped by some penalties, unbelievable offsides on a punt.

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Speaker 1: I'm bad, bad stuff, but Baker kept coming through. Huge,

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Speaker 1: uh third down conversion, Um, I'm sorry, the fourth down

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Speaker 1: conversion inside the five yard line to Cam Akers. Of course,

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Speaker 1: the Raiders, you know, with their great offense that's put

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Speaker 1: up four hundred yards in three straight games. Josh McDaniels

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Speaker 1: figured it out. Davante Adams on fire, Josh Jacob's dominating.

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Speaker 1: And what happens in the one drive where they need

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Speaker 1: to pick up yardage and kill the clock. They go

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Speaker 1: three and out, three and out, punt the ball back

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Speaker 1: to Baker Mayfield. Now, at this point. You know, Jacobs

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Speaker 1: can't get one yard on third down. They punt at

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Speaker 1: the two minute warding and it's basically a punt and pin.

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Speaker 1: They're like, oh, we'll just we'll just pin him back.

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Speaker 1: It's Baker Mayfield. He barely knows the receivers. The team

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Speaker 1: is a disaster. We're fine, and of course Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 1: throws an interception, but there's a penalty for pass interference

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Speaker 1: and just absolute chaos unravels as Baker Mayfield goes down

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Speaker 1: the field and then he uncorks a bomb to Fans

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Speaker 1: Efferson for the twenty three yard touchdown because inexplicably the

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Speaker 1: Raiders somehow we're playing man coverage like no help deep.

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Speaker 1: All you can't do is give up the touchdown and

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Speaker 1: Baker looked off the safety and it's bing bang boom. Folks, listen,

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Speaker 1: the comeback was incredible by Baker Mayfield. Yes, but at

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Speaker 1: some point this morning, Josh McDaniels is gonna get filayed

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Speaker 1: on social media, probably on television, probably on the radio.

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Speaker 1: Consider this, the Raiders have lost to Jeff Saturday and

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Speaker 1: the Colts. Five days after he became the interim coach.

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Speaker 1: Jeff Saturday was pulled out of the ESPN broadcast booth,

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Speaker 1: and the Raiders lost to him. And now they lose

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Speaker 1: to Baker Bayfield two days after he was picked up

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Speaker 1: by the team to play quarterback. Just just let that

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Speaker 1: sick kid for a moment. I know everybody was hot

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Speaker 1: for Josh McDaniels, even this podcast. Two days we celebrated, Hey,

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Speaker 1: maybe the Raiders have a shot at the playoffs, but

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Speaker 1: idea to express some caution about the potential for Baker

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Speaker 1: Mayfield to play spoiler, it didn't look good at sixty

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Speaker 1: three in the fourth quarter, and they're doing nothing. Fun

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Speaker 1: staff for you, just because you know you're the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: Oh and four this season when leading by double digits

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Speaker 1: at halftime. First team since nineteen that's seventy carried the

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Speaker 1: two that's nine two years, first team in ninety two years.

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Speaker 1: To lose four times in a season season when leading

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Speaker 1: by double digits at the half, that, my friends, is ineptitude.

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Speaker 1: And I feel for Rob. G My buddy Dan, who

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Speaker 1: listens to the podcast religiously, actually texted me last night

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Speaker 1: after after the game, you know, and I got a

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Speaker 1: bunch of tweets about Robb. Check on Rob, is he

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Speaker 1: doing okay? My guy, Dan says, please send someone over

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Speaker 1: to Rob G's house for a wellness check. I hope

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Speaker 1: Rob was doing all right. That that was a gut punch. Listen.

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Speaker 1: As a Jets fan, I'm very familiar with those kinds

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Speaker 1: of losses. But when you're the Raiders you win through straight,

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Speaker 1: you gotta be feeling like, hey man, we're close. We're close.

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Speaker 1: We if we can only break through. The schedule lines

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Speaker 1: up for us. Look at the Rams. Their garbage Rams

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Speaker 1: are terrible. They have lost fifteen million games in a row.

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Speaker 1: Worst defending Super Bowl chance ever, Baker Mayfield, and you

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Speaker 1: lose that game, folks. H I don't really know what

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Speaker 1: to say. Baker Mayfield duplicated what Tom Brady did on Monday,

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Speaker 1: except he had just arrived on the team barely probably,

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Speaker 1: I mean, does he really know to to Outwell's name?

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Speaker 1: Does he know Van Jefferson? Like? It really was staggering

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Speaker 1: stuff for Baker Mayfield. On some level, you have to

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Speaker 1: be happy for Baker Mayfield. I don't care if you

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Speaker 1: can't stand Oklahoma football, you hate Baker's attitude, you can't

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Speaker 1: stand his uh jaw jacking and relentless uh cockiness from

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. You've got to really be happy for the guy.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we were literally talking about him maybe being

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Speaker 1: done in the NFL if he couldn't show anything with

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Speaker 1: McVeigh and he did basically nothing for three quarters and

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Speaker 1: then showed out in the fourth quarter in an Island

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Speaker 1: game at home with the Rams to beat the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: And if you're the home inside Oakland Raiders, if you're

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders, folks, that's got to be rock bottom.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what exactly you say in the locker

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Speaker 1: room if you're Josh McDaniels, because you've now blown four

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Speaker 1: games when leading by double digits at the half. Everything

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Speaker 1: was going wrong, everything was going right, and then you

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Speaker 1: have this Thursday night disaster. Folks. Man, it's a it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a long offseason for McDaniels and the Raiders.

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Speaker 1: That is one of those games you don't easily bounce

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Speaker 1: back from. And that's listen, Josh McDaniels is gonna have

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Speaker 1: to answer a lot of questions. Derek carr Um, what

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Speaker 1: are you doing lining up Davante Adams in the backfield?

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Speaker 1: Just a lot of really shaky moves with a big

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Speaker 1: lead on the road, knowing you were inches away from

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Speaker 1: being there. For how about Derek Carr. Derek Carr eleven

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Speaker 1: of twenty a buck thirty seven, two interceptions. One was

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Speaker 1: unbelievably horrendous in the end zone. Forget about the interception

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Speaker 1: on the on the final play um but as just

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Speaker 1: a staggering dose of ineptitude on a Thursday night from

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders. The good news is we've got

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Speaker 1: a great interview coming up on the podcast. Uh. He

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Speaker 1: is at Football Outsiders. He is a hardcore Cincinnati Bengals fans,

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Speaker 1: so he gives me the business. Robert Weintraub, He's written

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Speaker 1: some books. He writes about the Bengals exclude not exclusively,

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Speaker 1: but extensively. And we talked about gambling. We talked about

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Speaker 1: Week fourteen. Listen, it's a good interview. At the end

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Speaker 1: of it, I will offer best bets for this week.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you award of caution before you get

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Speaker 1: to the interview in the best bets. A bit of

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Speaker 1: a hot streak four straight winning weeks in the contest.

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Speaker 1: This week is difficult because it seems to me like

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Speaker 1: everybody likes the same games. Anytime I go on social media,

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Speaker 1: any time I turn on a radio on a TV,

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Speaker 1: everybody likes the same teams and I hate that. I

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Speaker 1: don't like that at all. But without further ado, let's

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Speaker 1: get to our guests from the Football Outsiders Robert Wine Troup.

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Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

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Speaker 1: to sports. I know what sports dance want, but for

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Speaker 1: everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who knows a guy

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Speaker 1: he knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into straight fire.

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Speaker 1: Like I've been sparring with friendly sparring on social media

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Speaker 1: for a while. He writes for Football Outsiders, obviously some

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Speaker 1: incredible stuff. Also a weekly columnist at Cincinnati Magazine writing

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Speaker 1: about the Bengals. Okay, he's an author. You know I've

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Speaker 1: been down on the Bengals Robert Wine trial. Rob How

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Speaker 1: you doing, man? I am doing great. I'm happy to

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Speaker 1: be on with my my twisted fire. And uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't say sparring. I just like to point out

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Speaker 1: and give you are correct. Yes, you when you unnecessarily

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Speaker 1: quent the Bengals down as you are could do. But

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Speaker 1: that's okay, that's what the social media is all about, right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I figured i'd have you want to do a victory

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Speaker 1: lap after the Bengals dispatched Mahomes and reed they now

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Speaker 1: own them obviously three and oh Is Burrow against them.

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Speaker 1: Cincinnati moves up to six in total d v o A.

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Speaker 1: Their their odds to win the Super Bowl are soaring.

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Speaker 1: I gotta be honest, like I wasn't a believer last year.

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Speaker 1: They make this improbable run to the Super Bowl, nearly

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Speaker 1: win the damn thing. Yeah, then they fixed their offensive line,

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Speaker 1: sputtered a little bit out of the gate. Burrow had

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Speaker 1: the appendeck to me, I think in early August, and

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Speaker 1: it looked a little sluggish. But they're quick on our

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Speaker 1: all cylinders. Still no mixing, which may be a blessing

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Speaker 1: in disguise. Will get to But I wanted to bring

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Speaker 1: you on because obviously besides your football acumen. But it's

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Speaker 1: a big, sneaky, big matchup for the Bengals, who have

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Speaker 1: to face Deshaun Watson a week after he looked awful.

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Speaker 1: Burrow has struggled against the browns owen war and next

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Speaker 1: week you got Burrow and Brady. I'm sure we'll read

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Speaker 1: a lot of passing of the torch stories Big four

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Speaker 1: PM game. I'm sure it's gonna be like nationally shown

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Speaker 1: Burrow m v P. Like there's a lot to chew

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Speaker 1: on here. All right, where do you want to start, Robert, Well,

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Speaker 1: let me start with saying this, Yes, the Browns have

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Speaker 1: owned us. It actually pre dates, uh Burrow coming in.

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Speaker 1: They've won eight to nine against Cincinnati. Uh, it's really

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Speaker 1: kind of a historical corrective because the Bengals won eight

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Speaker 1: of the previous nine and something like twenty one of

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Speaker 1: the previous twenty seven or something like that against Cleveland. So,

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Speaker 1: I mean ANFC North game battle, Ohio, You're not gonna

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Speaker 1: have that kind of you know, decade was the dominance

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Speaker 1: over a team in their division. So it's probably a

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Speaker 1: little bit of that. The Browns have owned the Bengals recently,

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Speaker 1: not particularly because of Burrow. It's really because the Bengals

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Speaker 1: are unable to tackle Nick Chubb and they're unable to

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Speaker 1: block Myles Garrett. You know, these are two all pros.

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Speaker 1: A lot of teams can't tackle Chubb, a lot of

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Speaker 1: teams can't block Garrett. But it's really come to a

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Speaker 1: head against them. Garrett continues to destroy the Bengals left

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Speaker 1: tackle Jonah Williams on the game to game basis, Chubb

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Speaker 1: just eats them alive. That the key to the games

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Speaker 1: has been in large part that the Bengals can't get

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Speaker 1: the game script to where they want it, especially recently,

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Speaker 1: they can't take a lead and sort of take Chubb

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Speaker 1: out of the game because the Browns have to throw

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Speaker 1: the ball more than they want to. So he worked

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Speaker 1: in the Brown's favor and most of those games. So

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Speaker 1: you know, that's obviously going to be a key on Sunday,

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Speaker 1: Watson being the X factor who knows what to to think. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: as a Bengal fan, I don't think he should be

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Speaker 1: playing at all. He should be have received a lifetime suspension.

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Speaker 1: But that's a whole another podcast. I told you As

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Speaker 1: a Bengals fan, I'm saying that you always have to

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Speaker 1: color everything through the orange and black stripes, you know that,

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Speaker 1: um as you do with with green. So that's just

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Speaker 1: the way that works. But I just, you know, without

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Speaker 1: knowing what to expect that of him, it's kind of

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Speaker 1: hard to say exactly how the Bengals are gonna, you know,

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Speaker 1: face the Browns offense, which was pretty darn good at

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Speaker 1: least efficiency wise d v O A wise under Jacoby Brisset.

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Speaker 1: That hasn't been their problem. Problem is they have the

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Speaker 1: thirty first rank run defense by d v A A

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Speaker 1: and they've struggled all year to stop other teams from

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Speaker 1: running the ball down their throat. Uh. And the Bengals

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Speaker 1: have found a running game in recent weeks. That's a

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Speaker 1: large part of why they've overcome what you accurately termed

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Speaker 1: their sluggish start. You know, the beginning part of the season. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Burrow was you know, slow to come back from an

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Speaker 1: appendeck to me, and the offensive line was struggling to

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Speaker 1: protect them a little bit, but mainly they were not

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Speaker 1: running the ball well. They were trying to force kind

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Speaker 1: of a zone blocking scheme and athletic outside zone scheme

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Speaker 1: onto a bunch of players who were new but not

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Speaker 1: really fitted to that scheme. They've replaced it in season,

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Speaker 1: which is not that easy to do with more of

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Speaker 1: a sort of straight ahead pin and polls what they

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Speaker 1: call it style of blocking. It fits the lineman better,

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Speaker 1: it fits Joe Mixing better, Uh. Samaj p Ryan, he's

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Speaker 1: good to get. It doesn't what system he's in. He's

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Speaker 1: always good and uh, you know, they've they've really found something.

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Speaker 1: They've been one of the most efficient running teams in

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Speaker 1: the league over the past six eight weeks now, uh,

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Speaker 1: and you know you saw it against Kansas City and

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Speaker 1: so it against Tennessee. They can run the ball even

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Speaker 1: when teams are looking to stop them, and you know,

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Speaker 1: they kind of have to run the ball. That's a rarity.

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Speaker 1: And since that he loaded, these many years, the Bengals

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Speaker 1: have never had a running attack that you can rely

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Speaker 1: on in the fourth quarter when it comes to winning

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Speaker 1: time and putting games away. That's why I think this

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Speaker 1: team has a little bit uh realistic, more realistic chance

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Speaker 1: of going far in the playoffs. Even then last year,

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Speaker 1: last year, as you said, was just a rocket ship

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Speaker 1: out of nowhere. Uh. And what happened was really the

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Speaker 1: special teams in the defense played out of their minds

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Speaker 1: for three weeks and Burrow made just enough plays. But

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Speaker 1: this year's offense is much more balanced, much more reliable.

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Speaker 1: Burrows pointing at a higher level. Of the running game

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Speaker 1: is at a much higher level, and you know, you

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Speaker 1: never know what happens come the postseason. But there's certainly

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Speaker 1: a better team than they were last year. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: my confidence leve of the sky high, which is usually

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Speaker 1: when you know, the other shoot drops. But that's a

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Speaker 1: whole another story. Is it possible, Robert, for this to

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Speaker 1: be a sandwich game? Last week? Chiefs obviously massive? Next

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Speaker 1: week Brady and the Bucks obviously enormous. But is this

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Speaker 1: canceled out because the Browns are such a rivalry with

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. Yeah, I think there's both those things can

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Speaker 1: be true, right, Um, there's definitely uh, you know, this

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Speaker 1: is not just a sandwich game for this little three

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Speaker 1: week stretch, but the Bengals have this really rough schedule

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Speaker 1: all the way down to the end of the season.

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Speaker 1: They still Buffalo had huge game. Potentially with the Ravens ahead,

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Speaker 1: there's an easy possibility they'll be looking down the line

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Speaker 1: towards the games in late December and then into the

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Speaker 1: playoffs and think, wow, the Browns whatever, even if uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, they play us, they're not making the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: who cares? But as you say, hey, it's a division game.

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Speaker 1: B They've had this great success and bragging rights and

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Speaker 1: they're a little chesty over there in Cleveland because of that,

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Speaker 1: and uh, one of the things that you know, Zach

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Speaker 1: Taylor given credit that you can point to this or

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Speaker 1: that in a lot of way with a lot of coaches,

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Speaker 1: But one thing he's done is really keep the team

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Speaker 1: focused on not having that kind of let down, not

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Speaker 1: having games where they've been, you know, just obviously looking

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Speaker 1: ahead to the next week or just throwing the helmets

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Speaker 1: out on the field and expecting to be the team

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Speaker 1: on talent. Uh. You know, he's put in the mantra

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Speaker 1: for Cincinnati. You know, everybody's talking about this hard schedule.

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Speaker 1: He said, Hey, they gotta play us, and I think

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Speaker 1: that he was really you know, brought into that. You know,

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Speaker 1: it sounds a little cheesy, but this is this is

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Speaker 1: team sports. These kind of things are important. And uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, because of the fact that the Browns have

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Speaker 1: had not just a division game, but because they've had

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Speaker 1: this whammy on since he uh and the Deshaun Watson factor,

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Speaker 1: I think that they'll not really be overlooking this game.

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Speaker 1: I think one thing to remember about the game they

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Speaker 1: played back on Halloween is that, you know, one of

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Speaker 1: their assistant coaches, Adam Zimmer, the son of Mike Zimmer,

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Speaker 1: well known former coach of the Vikings and also defensive

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Speaker 1: coordinator and Cincinnati and just joined the staff with coach

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Speaker 1: Prime out there in Colorado, which is in you're saying,

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Speaker 1: that's a whole another podcast too. But uh so, Adam Zimmer,

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Speaker 1: the son of Mike, actually died passed away tragically the

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Speaker 1: day of that game on Halloween against the Browns, And

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Speaker 1: it's impossible to know what that really had an effect

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Speaker 1: on the team, but obviously cast a pall over the

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Speaker 1: entire situation. So um, you know you have to factor

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Speaker 1: that in at least a little bit. The team has

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Speaker 1: put that behind them, hopefully as much as you can.

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Speaker 1: And uh, you know that's that seems like a long

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Speaker 1: time ago now. So yes, the potential for a sandwich

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Speaker 1: game is there. But the way that the Bengals have

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Speaker 1: been playing, in the way the trends have been for them,

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Speaker 1: I like to think that they'll they'll have their full

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Speaker 1: focus on Cleveland this week. They might not beat them,

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Speaker 1: but they they half favorite, not bottom. All right, So

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Speaker 1: it's weird you mentioned Zach Taylor. I didn't think I

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Speaker 1: mentioned him here the first ten minutes of our talk.

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Speaker 1: You know, they're surging. Zach Taylor was so bad his

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Speaker 1: first couple of years that I feel like people are

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Speaker 1: still reluctant to give him credit. I feel like, and

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Speaker 1: I always butcher his last name, I'm Rono. However, you

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Speaker 1: say the defensive coordinator, he gets more credit than Zach Taylor.

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Speaker 1: It's like Burrow the d C Chase Hendrickson, which was

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Speaker 1: a great signing, Like we're reluctant to give Zach Taylor

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Speaker 1: much credit. I don't know who made the switch to

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Speaker 1: go to Burrow in the shotgun as opposed to under

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Speaker 1: center when they had mixed him. Was that a Burrow thing?

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Speaker 1: Was that a Zach Taylor and the offensive coordinator? Talk

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Speaker 1: to us about that situation. Well, let's go back to

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Speaker 1: the beginning, right, Zach Taylor got that job in the

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Speaker 1: wake of being a Sean McVeigh quote unquote acolyte, you know,

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Speaker 1: an assistant whatever you want to say. That was at

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Speaker 1: the height of mcveigh's boy genius powers, and Zach Taylor

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Speaker 1: was just seen as kind of a flavor of the

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Speaker 1: month hiring because of you know, his association with the

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Speaker 1: Rams and McVeigh. Okay, so you look at him, and

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Speaker 1: he had six wins in his first two years. The

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Speaker 1: team was horrible. He was obviously changing over you know,

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Speaker 1: a bunch of personnel from the remnants of the Marvin

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Speaker 1: Lewis era to his own team. Uh. They drafted Burrow

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Speaker 1: in his second year twenty and then obviously he goes

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Speaker 1: down halfway through the season, right as the team seemed

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Speaker 1: to be jelling a little bit. Uh. So you know,

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Speaker 1: it was very easy, as you say, to just say,

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Speaker 1: you know, this guy doesn't know what the hell he's doing.

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Speaker 1: He's Dave shoot with two point oh. But he's done

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Speaker 1: a heck of a job in certain ways. And I

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Speaker 1: think when you bring up the offensive changes, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's not easy to do a lot of coaches, especially

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Speaker 1: a guy like him, who you would think would just

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Speaker 1: bringing the show on McVeigh system and say here's what

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Speaker 1: we did in l a and it worked great, and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna do it here in Cincinnati. But he's done

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Speaker 1: a lot of changes to that system and too, as

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Speaker 1: I mentioned before, like the running game, and as you

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Speaker 1: pointed out, you know, kind of going way more into

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Speaker 1: the shotgun and running out of the shotgun, which they're

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Speaker 1: much more effective at. Uh. Just in season changes. He's

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Speaker 1: not afraid to say, look, this isn't working. I was wrong.

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Speaker 1: Let me get with Brian Callahan and Burrow. Dan picture

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Speaker 1: behind the scenes as a guy who's really influential with

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Speaker 1: the team. He's the quarterbacks coach, but he's a he's

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Speaker 1: an O C in waiting. Uh, you know, I I

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Speaker 1: want to assign percentages, but he's the he's the head coach,

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Speaker 1: so you have to give him the benefit of the doubt.

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Speaker 1: I think he's done a really good job being flexible,

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Speaker 1: not you know, playing favorites. He's a guy who you know,

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Speaker 1: they signed. They drafted Jackson Carmen last year in the

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Speaker 1: second round, and they looked at him and saw that

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Speaker 1: he wasn't good, and they said, let's get him out

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Speaker 1: of here and put his fourth rounder that we drafted

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Speaker 1: this year in his place, Cornell Olson, And he's played

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Speaker 1: much better. He's been always willing to do that, and

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Speaker 1: he's you know, play calling or clock management. You know,

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Speaker 1: every coach has their issues at certain times with both

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Speaker 1: of those things in game things. But I think the

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Speaker 1: big picture is, hey, he's really changed the culture. And

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Speaker 1: you don't hear about that a lot. And every coach says,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm gonna come in and get rid of

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Speaker 1: the ping pong tables and we're going to be a hardcore,

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Speaker 1: you know, football only team, and then the next coach says,

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Speaker 1: put the ping pong tables back, and then we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be loosey, goosey. And that's a player's coach and that

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Speaker 1: kind of thing. And you know, really what it means

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Speaker 1: is he has the trust of the players. They've been

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Speaker 1: very consistent about the kind of play they want. Smart, heady,

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Speaker 1: you know kind of leadership guys who are captains in

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Speaker 1: college and players that other guys listened to. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: you know, he really has changed the culture, which is

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Speaker 1: hard to do in Cincinnati especially and just in general.

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Speaker 1: As a head coach in the NFL, it gets a

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Speaker 1: lot of lip service, but not always that easy to do,

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Speaker 1: and you have to give him credit for that. I

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Speaker 1: think you're right that he gets overlooked partially just because

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Speaker 1: of you know, he's kind of a plane Jane looking

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Speaker 1: Guy's not really dynamic out there. He's not a tough

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Speaker 1: guy like like Vrabel. He hasn't had the length of

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Speaker 1: success and other coaches have had. But you know, he

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Speaker 1: was in the super Bowl last year. That's not easy

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Speaker 1: to do for any coach. And he has the team

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Speaker 1: playing very well again this year. And you know most

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Speaker 1: of his personnel and overall strategy moves have worked out. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know you have to put him. I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: he's the coach of the year and one of the

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Speaker 1: top five in the league necessarily, but how to give

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Speaker 1: him his credit? Fox Sports Radio has the best sports

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Speaker 1: talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows

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Speaker 1: at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the I

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00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 1: Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.

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Speaker 1: All right, so I'm looking at the week four teens late,

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Speaker 1: a lot of great games. I see this um Chargers

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Speaker 1: Dolphins game. I have a beef with all the Miami fans.

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Speaker 1: They think I hate to just for being a little

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Speaker 1: minor leage critical of him. I liked too. I'm rooting

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Speaker 1: for him. I just I don't know what to make

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Speaker 1: of this Miami team. You you look at the numbers

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Speaker 1: that you guys put out at uh Football Outsiders, and like,

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Speaker 1: Miami is good. But according to Football Outsiders, they're eight

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Speaker 1: and overall d v o A, the Jets are ninth.

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Speaker 1: Like I know, there's a bit of a gap. They're

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Speaker 1: they're closer to Kansas City than at seven. And then

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Speaker 1: the Jets are to Miami. What do you make of

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins and and do you like him this week

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Speaker 1: against the Chargers road favorites? Uh? I like them only

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Speaker 1: because in this sense, just because everybody made so much

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Speaker 1: and rightfully so, about two against a rough defense and

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Speaker 1: the forty Niners are about as good as we have

423
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Now, going to play against the Chargers defense,

424
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,240
Speaker 1: that's gonna feel like, you know, a teacup ride for him,

425
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: That's gonna be very comfortable all of a sudden in

426
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 1: the pocket. And as we all know, that's where to

427
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 1: a most quarterbacks struggle is when you get him off

428
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 1: their spot, speed up their decision making process, and to

429
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 1: his game is so much about timing and accuracy and

430
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,399
Speaker 1: being on the same exact mental time, mental slot with

431
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 1: his receivers that if you can disrupt that, he's obviously

432
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,080
Speaker 1: not the same quarterback. And uh, you know, I don't

433
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: believe that the Chargers can do what the forty Nights

434
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 1: did against him. Doesn't mean they're gonna win. It doesn't

435
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: mean that, you know, all of a sudden, the Dolphins

436
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 1: is going to score forty five points against him, but

437
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 1: they should be able to move the ball and feel

438
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 1: much more comfortable than they did against San Francisco. UH

439
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 1: from with the Chargers is so many of their playmakers

440
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 1: on offense I've obviously injured. They kind of a mess offensively.

441
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 1: They're relying so much on Herbert just to be superman

442
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: that it's it's taking a toll on him. I think

443
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: you've seen as the year has gone along, and Uh,

444
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 1: you know, in a matchup where they have to you

445
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 1: wind up scoring as many points as to UH and

446
00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 1: the Dolphins offense, it might be a tall order for them.

447
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:05,359
Speaker 1: I could see his you know, mind me putting him

448
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 1: away with a couple of late scores in that sense,

449
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,640
Speaker 1: and and the Chargers not being able to match them

450
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: score for scores they need to. Obviously, this can all

451
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: change if they get some early pressure and kind of

452
00:23:16,440 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 1: remind too of what he had last week. And you know,

453
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 1: these things tend to carry over sometimes in games, and

454
00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,119
Speaker 1: you see guys, especially quarterbacks, have a bit of a

455
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 1: mental carry over, whereas last week he was so put

456
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 1: off from his you know, kind of carpet ride that

457
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 1: he had the last few weeks where he was really

458
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 1: playing bad defenses. You know, the charges aren't as bad

459
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 1: as some of the defenses he had played in that gap.

460
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 1: But you bring up the Jets, and you know, they're

461
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 1: really very equivalent teams. They just do it in different ways.

462
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 1: We kind of think of the Dolphins is better just

463
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 1: because we are more easily able to see how offense works,

464
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,959
Speaker 1: and we will to I don't think they're better. Now.

465
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,160
Speaker 1: I know the Jets beat him their third string quarterback whatever, um,

466
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 1: But I just I'm not that as impressed with Miami

467
00:24:01,080 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: as everyone else. They beat a lot of bad Yeah,

468
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 1: they I mean I think they are who who's everyone else?

469
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 1: They're not as good as the Dolphins fans think they are,

470
00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 1: and they're probably a little bit better than some of

471
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: the you know, national media who don't love to Ali

472
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 1: and and to was played well this year. He's played

473
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:18,960
Speaker 1: extremely well. You have to give him credit for that.

474
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, he's he's made the most of

475
00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,359
Speaker 1: the situation. It just goes to show again coaching does matter, obviously,

476
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,280
Speaker 1: and the coaching he had from a defensive coach who

477
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 1: apparently had some kind of personality conflict over the past

478
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: couple of years and Brian Flores. Now you have Mike

479
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,479
Speaker 1: McDaniel who is doing for him. I thought we had

480
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:40,120
Speaker 1: an exchange over this, which maybe I was a little

481
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: tongue in cheek about it, but you know, he's doing

482
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 1: for two of what Shanahan did. Mike Shanahan did for

483
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan when he was Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator back

484
00:24:48,960 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 1: in two sixteen, and they went all the way to

485
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 1: the super Bowl and should want it um now is

486
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 1: to uh a season veteran as good as Matt Ryan

487
00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: was that year, maybe not quite, but the it is,

488
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: he's getting a lot of open looks. He's generally speaking

489
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: before last week, extremely comfortable in the pocket, and they're

490
00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 1: playing to his strength. You know, that's what you want

491
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: out of a team. You see that when that that's

492
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: not the case, UH, and you know you can only

493
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: you can only do more than than that. They're only

494
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: going to go as far as they can sort of scheme. Uh.

495
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: Their players open in the especially down the stretch, and

496
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: they'll be playing a lot better defenses. So I don't

497
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,239
Speaker 1: think of them as necessarily a long term threat for

498
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl this year, but I think they're you know,

499
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:34,680
Speaker 1: certainly in the top let's say fourteen thirteen twelve teams

500
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: in the league. UH, and the threat to beat you

501
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 1: on any Sunday, that's for sure. Let me ask you

502
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 1: about the Minnesota Detroit games. Detroits at home. They are favored,

503
00:25:45,880 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 1: which has angered a lot of Minnesota Vikings fans. The Vikings,

504
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 1: who are nine and oh in one score games two

505
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 1: point underdogs in Detroit. Now, I'm sure the professionals have

506
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:00,119
Speaker 1: pushed the Detroit number up. I'm actually seeing geo and

507
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: a half in one spot. But is this a game

508
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: you can ride with Detroit or is just too many

509
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 1: people on this talking about it? You know, if this

510
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: is five years ago, it wouldn't be as big of

511
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: a deal, but I think it's a big deal given

512
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 1: the current gambling climate. Yeah, and that number has changed dramatically, right,

513
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: I mean that opened I believe with the Vikings favorite

514
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 1: maybe about as many as two two and a half points,

515
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 1: So that's a huge move. You would know better than

516
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 1: me as the gambling aficionado. I learned my lessons long

517
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 1: ago not to put any actual money down on these games.

518
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 1: But that's a whole nothers. Some of them are coin flips, dude, Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Listen.

519
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 1: You know, if everybody is suddenly going for Detroit, that

520
00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 1: is reason enough just to think the Vikings win on

521
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,280
Speaker 1: that alone. I will say this, though Detroit is playing

522
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 1: extremely well, their offense is white hot. Uh. You know,

523
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,919
Speaker 1: funnily enough, since trading T. J. Hockenson to the Vikings, Uh,

524
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 1: the Lions have really opened up offensively. Ben Johnson, the

525
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator for the Lions, has put his scandal plague

526
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 1: track and field history behind different Ben Johnson. Uh, what

527
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: do you say that I was going to ask you,

528
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:08,639
Speaker 1: I've never heard of Ben Johnson? Right? Had you ever

529
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,359
Speaker 1: heard of? Only because I happened to friends with the

530
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: close friends with a couple of Detroit guys who mentioned him,

531
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: and passing that they have this guy and that that

532
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:19,959
Speaker 1: really high on him is kind of a you know,

533
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 1: the next offensive guru. Uh, but you know, not in

534
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: terms of like a big picture. Here's the guy who

535
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 1: you know is going to set the league on fire.

536
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,120
Speaker 1: And you know, I'm not so sure necessarily that he has.

537
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,919
Speaker 1: But given credit, they've been really hot these last few games.

538
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 1: They Jared Gopp has played extremely well. Uh. He's the

539
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 1: third in d v o A among all quarterbacks. His

540
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,160
Speaker 1: middle of the field passing is where he really excels.

541
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 1: When he gets him outside the numbers, He's not quite

542
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:49,360
Speaker 1: as as good statistically and metrically speaking. Um, and it's

543
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,320
Speaker 1: really been when Alman ross st Brown is out there.

544
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 1: I saw a couple of numbers essentially point to the

545
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,840
Speaker 1: fact that when Aman ross St Brown is on the field,

546
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 1: Jared Goff his vintage Matt Stafford, and when he's not

547
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 1: on the field, he's Jared Goff. I mean, I think

548
00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 1: that is a little easier way of putting it, a

549
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 1: little simplistic, But I don't see him on the injury reports,

550
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: So that's indoors. That's interest. Now, what about Minnesota? Do

551
00:28:15,119 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: they defend the middle to feel well or because that's

552
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: like an interesting nugget, right, And they are certainly not

553
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:22,680
Speaker 1: in the top. You know that we're not talking about

554
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: the forty niners and Fred Warner over there, right, So,

555
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: I mean definitely not uh. And they've had their struggles

556
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 1: defensively all year. You pointed out, you know, I mean

557
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 1: Mac Jones lit them up, your guy, Mike White lit

558
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,120
Speaker 1: him up. I mean, you know, they they're not exactly

559
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 1: a team that's gonna beat you because they shut you

560
00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 1: down on your crossing patterns and collision, those crossers that

561
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 1: that the Lions like to do and uh, and they're

562
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: not really a great run defensive team either. You know

563
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,160
Speaker 1: that they can't get immediate pass rush. They're pretty vulnerable squads.

564
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: So I like to Troy to score some points. As

565
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: you mentioned, Minnesota is also on a bit of a

566
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:58,040
Speaker 1: magic carpet right there. They're pulling out really unsustainable and

567
00:28:58,160 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: historically uh amazing run of one score games. Of course,

568
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,000
Speaker 1: last year they lost a ton of one score games,

569
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: so that you know, it's called the plexiglass principle in analytics,

570
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 1: when you are extremely good or extremely bad, it's something

571
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: you hit the plexic glass and bounced back towards the middle.

572
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: That's sort of the rationale there. So it makes sense

573
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 1: they would be better at one score games this year,

574
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 1: but they've gone extremely into the other direction. I just

575
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 1: don't like the transfer the vikings, you know, they can

576
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 1: they kind of feel like they're just desperately hanging on

577
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: every week to pull these games out, or you know,

578
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: relying on Josh Allen, uh, you know, pulling the fumble

579
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,400
Speaker 1: at his own goal line instead of game away, that

580
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. And obviously the Jets head I'm

581
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 1: on the ropes and just couldn't get that knock out

582
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: punched last week, which I'm sure was a gut punch

583
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: for you. Um. So, you know, it almost feels like

584
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 1: it's time now that it goes the other direction and

585
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: maybe the Lions get the break. You remember when they

586
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 1: played I think it was Week three. The Lions controlled

587
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 1: the game for almost the entirety of it, and Dan

588
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: Campbell decided to kick a field goal after going on

589
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: port down the whole way and it missed, and the

590
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: Lion the Vikings rather pulled it out with a couple

591
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: of late touchdowns. You know, it feels like a game

592
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,479
Speaker 1: that should go the other way. My only hesitation on

593
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 1: that is, as we were talking about at the top,

594
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 1: because everybody now likes the Lions and the gambling Sharps.

595
00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 1: Everybody seems to be on them, the public and the sharps. Boat.

596
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 1: That might be a reason to think the Vikings have

597
00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: a little bit of magic left in him, but I

598
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: think it myself. Okay, it's just a tough one. I mean,

599
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: it's a tough week. We can wrap up with this one.

600
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: Robert Carolina at Seattle. So this was somewhere near seven

601
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 1: six and a half seven and then all kinds of

602
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: Carolina money came in and now it's coming back the

603
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: other way. Seattle. I know, nobody really believes in the Seahawks,

604
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 1: like truly believes. Everybody has a good run every now

605
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: and then. But Carolina off the buy. Seattle got a

606
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 1: little lucky to escape the Rams last week. Any thoughts

607
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: on this one. I just think getting Baker Mayfield out

608
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: of your building is always a good thing, so that

609
00:30:57,720 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: will obviously help Carolina not now. Uh well, listen, Caroline

610
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,120
Speaker 1: in general has actually played pretty well. I mean it's

611
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: kind of sounds counterintuitive. Uh, and especially once Matt rule

612
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: was fired. Uh. And you know, I think there's a

613
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,680
Speaker 1: little bit of, oh, you know, we're playing loose and

614
00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: there's only for our jobs, and a little bit of

615
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: you know, nobody believes in us anyway, we have nothing

616
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: to play for except each other kind of thing going on.

617
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: All the cliches with Carolina, but in general, outside of

618
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: the game they played against Cincinnati ironically enough, where they

619
00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 1: were just destroyed early on, Uh, they've been competitive and

620
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: have played hard in a lot of these games, especially defensively.

621
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 1: They can give Seattle uh all they want. I think

622
00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 1: Seattle obviously needs the game quite a bit more. Although

623
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 1: you could make the argument that if Tampa didn't pull

624
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: out that game from there rectum, shall we say, on

625
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: Monday night, Carolina might have been, you know, sniffing a

626
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: division title. They're out of nowhere, and it's still not impossible.

627
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: So you know, it's a fascinating game and it's an

628
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: interesting matchup. Obviously, Geno Smith has played far better than

629
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 1: anyone expected. He's metrics wise, he's been excellent. Uh. I

630
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,479
Speaker 1: know it hurts as a Jets fan to see him

631
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 1: doing this kind of stuff out happy for the guys.

632
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,560
Speaker 1: It's like a ten game run basically, he hasn't been

633
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 1: great in all of them, and anybody can pull that

634
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 1: out of you know. Yeah, and I think and I

635
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 1: think he's getting some you know, as we're talking about

636
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 1: with two. You know, it's he's gotten confidence and he's

637
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 1: playing comfortably in the pocket, which she really has not

638
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: had a lot of opportunities to do before. And you know,

639
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: he's getting he's making the most of his opportunities to

640
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: his credit. And Seattle's you know, playing you know, they

641
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 1: built their team. It's a very young team. It's a

642
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,760
Speaker 1: team that makes mistakes when you really don't need them to,

643
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,960
Speaker 1: which his hallmark of young teams, and that's sort of

644
00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: you know, I think that you'll see that more down

645
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: the stretch as the season goes along with Seattle. Teams

646
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 1: like that that are built on a lot of draft

647
00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 1: picks and enthusiasm and Pete Carroll jumping up and down

648
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: on the sideline. It's all great. But then when it

649
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 1: comes to you know, the important games in that long stretch,

650
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,760
Speaker 1: that last month of the season, when everybody's exhausted and

651
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 1: you're playing on muscle memory, that's when it hurts young

652
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 1: teams that don't have a ton of you know, a

653
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: ton of winning experience behind them. So I do think

654
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: Seattle is, you know, a long term play not really

655
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: a team you can look for. They might sneak into

656
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 1: the playoffs just by default in the NFC, but uh,

657
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 1: you know, I definitely think Carolina can play with them

658
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 1: this weekend, and as you mentioned, Alphaby, they'll be fresh,

659
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 1: and uh, it's gonna be a fascinating contest, it really is.

660
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 1: There's a lot of games like this. This particular weekend

661
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: last week was like the you know kind of the

662
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 1: the what the Marquee games where everybody was looking at

663
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 1: those is you know, really collisions at the top. This

664
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 1: week is more. There's a lot of interesting sort of

665
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: subtleties to these games. And you know that at first

666
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: blush you might say, oh, easy win, easy win, easy win.

667
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: But I think we're gonna see, as we do most Sundays,

668
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 1: a lot of games down to the stretch, close games,

669
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: and the gamblers who have actual money on the line

670
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: are gonna be riding that surfboard back and forth on

671
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 1: the waves of despair and ecstasy as they is Seattle

672
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 1: oh and three against the spread their last three. They're

673
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: clearly struggling. I don't look at success rate and ep

674
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,279
Speaker 1: A that much. Are those things you look at or no?

675
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 1: I mean yes, I look at them. I don't think

676
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 1: there will be all an end all, just as I

677
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 1: don't think I mean there's not nothing is all right right,

678
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, even the Football Outsiders metric, which

679
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 1: I should mention that you know I write for Football Outsiders,

680
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 1: but I don't, you know, crunch the numbers. I'm not

681
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 1: the math guy. I'm the guy interprets the math and

682
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 1: puts it out there for the masses of one of

683
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 1: these So I don't want to claim credit for being

684
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,840
Speaker 1: some some math genius. That's Aaron Schatz and and some

685
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 1: of the other guys there. But I definitely believe it's

686
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: an important set efficiency like EPA, like some of the

687
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 1: other success rate. You know, they what they do is

688
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 1: they just they cut out some of the nonsense talk

689
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: around the league where a team is considered a great

690
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,879
Speaker 1: defensive defensive team because they, uh, you know, don't give

691
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:55,799
Speaker 1: up a ton of yards through the air, let's say,

692
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 1: but that's because they're behind all the time and the

693
00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:59,200
Speaker 1: other team is running on them for most of the

694
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: second half. Like that, you know, the drill. It just,

695
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 1: you know, it cuts away some of the fluff and

696
00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 1: gets to the heart of what a team is either

697
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 1: good at or not good at. And I think if

698
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 1: you take them all in in combination, they can really

699
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 1: give you a good sign of how the Bengals are

700
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 1: great and the Jets are so so well. Seattle, Uh,

701
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: their defense in the last month is like bottom five

702
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: in e p A and successful. They can't stop anybody.

703
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: So I think I'm probably with you on Caroline. All right.

704
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: He is Robert wine Trump. Robert, you you're a veteran.

705
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 1: I mean, how many books have you written? I've written

706
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: four books. Thank you for asking, uh, and you're a

707
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: fellow New York guy. If I could throw a quick

708
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:40,880
Speaker 1: plug out there, fire away. All my other stuff is

709
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 1: a newsletter sub stack like everybody else. But if you

710
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 1: go to wine traup our dot substack dot com. I'm

711
00:35:48,480 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: actually counting down the top one thousand games, one thousand games, matches, fights, whatever,

712
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 1: horse races, everything that have ever taken place in New

713
00:35:56,320 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 1: York sports history. So that's a number. Are you at

714
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 1: told me about? Just started it? So we got a

715
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: lot to come, a lot of Jets games. Yeah, yeah, yeah,

716
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: all right, man, thanks a lot for taking the time, Robert,

717
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:13,799
Speaker 1: I have a good one, of course, Jason, thanks so

718
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:16,840
Speaker 1: much for having me man, I appreciate it. Fox Sports

719
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.

720
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,799
Speaker 1: Catch all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot

721
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 1: com and within the I Heart Radio app search f

722
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 1: s R to listen live. The only thing better than

723
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: sitting on your couch watching the game. He's making money

724
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:40,760
Speaker 1: while you do it. Here's your best beat. Good stuff

725
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: from Robert Weintraub of The Football Outsiders, and I wish

726
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: I could report that I was with him on the

727
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: Bengals this week, but unfortunately Robert and Bengals fans. I'm

728
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 1: on the Browns getting six. Now there's a chance the

729
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: Browns get smashed and Cleveland, Cleveland, you know, is officially

730
00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 1: who we thought they were, a team that has a

731
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,759
Speaker 1: rback has played one game in seven hundred plus days

732
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 1: and look quite bad. But as the number state and

733
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: Robert put him out there. Nick Chubb has owned the Bengals.

734
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 1: Myles Garrett has dominated whoever whichever tackle he's faced, and

735
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:15,280
Speaker 1: I just think this is too big of a number.

736
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 1: I think the Bengals are being overvalued a little bit

737
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: in the market because of the win over Casey, and um, yeah,

738
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 1: I'm on the Browns. I will be taking them in

739
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 1: the contest contest locks Brown's for sure at six. Um

740
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 1: the look ahead, by the way, and that game was

741
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:32,920
Speaker 1: three and a half, so the market has adjusted by

742
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,280
Speaker 1: two and a half. Cleveland looked terrible, struggled with Houston.

743
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 1: Cincinnati takes down Casey, which was by everybody's account number

744
00:37:39,360 --> 00:37:41,920
Speaker 1: one in the league. I mean, there's the handicap there.

745
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:44,120
Speaker 1: Do you need much more? You know? When you look

746
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:48,080
Speaker 1: XS and os, Cleveland has done well. Stefanski has showed

747
00:37:48,120 --> 00:37:51,240
Speaker 1: well against Jack Taylor. We'll see if it continues. Brown's

748
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 1: close loss and I'm fine, Um, Carolina Panthers getting three

749
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 1: and a half in Seattle, Folks, at this point, I have,

750
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: you know, reach the stage where I understand that will

751
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 1: be losing the bet on Seattle finishing under five. It

752
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:05,880
Speaker 1: felt like a safe bet when I made it. I

753
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: mean their win total was what six and a half,

754
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: and I bet they. I said I would shave these

755
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: Seahawks logo in the side of my head if they

756
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 1: finished under five. Well, it looks like that's gonna happen.

757
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: I said it on Cowherd Show, and um, yeah, I'll

758
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 1: be doing that because I think Cincinnati's gonna finish over

759
00:38:20,000 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 1: five hundred. They just do two more wins and their

760
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: final five games come on. It feels like a layup.

761
00:38:25,239 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 1: Rams had him blew it. I if the Panthers win,

762
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 1: I'll have a shot, and I think the Panthers will

763
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: be live in this one. Seattle. By the way, Kenneth

764
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 1: Walker not practicing, that's big And I think I said

765
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 1: it in the segment with Robert uh Seattle kind of

766
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 1: fading here, oh and three against the spread in their

767
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,880
Speaker 1: last three when they can't run the football Geno Smith

768
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:44,479
Speaker 1: is forced to do more. You've got J. C. Horne,

769
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: a very good cornerback who should be able to slow

770
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 1: dk Metcalf as long as someone else can find lock

771
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 1: it lock it's been eating. I think Carolina canna hang

772
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 1: around and and get the w. I did take the

773
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 1: three and a half. Looks like it is up to four.

774
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,440
Speaker 1: Oh lovely, I got a bad number. No, it's three

775
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 1: and a half of the contest. I'm sorry, three and

776
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:03,839
Speaker 1: a half in the contest. So if you can get

777
00:39:03,840 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 1: four and Carolina, sure, now there has been an adjustment.

778
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 1: Carolina off to buy Seattle did not look great. Um,

779
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: next game, Baltimore Ravens. This is tough. I didn't even

780
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 1: realize that the Steelers would want four straight against the Ravens. No,

781
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, It'll be Huntley. Huntley did face them last year,

782
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 1: got the cover, but not the win. Pittsburgh favored by two.

783
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: You know you you love Tomlin as a dog? Do

784
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 1: you love him as a favorite against Baltimore? And what's

785
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 1: gonna be a total grinder? Started reference a dating app there,

786
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 1: but I actually believe I took the first half under

787
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,080
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half. I'm looking at the full game

788
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 1: under a yes, under thirty six and a half sounds crazy,

789
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: but this is typical thirteen ten, seventeen thirteen, that kind

790
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:54,200
Speaker 1: of game, you know. Pittsburgh, despite the wins, remember those

791
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 1: two wins came against UH inferior competition like who who did? Damn?

792
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 1: Do you beat Atlanta? Congratulate you want cookie for that.

793
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: Baltimore a little bit of a step up now. Their

794
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:06,320
Speaker 1: offense stinks, but their defense is very good. I expect

795
00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 1: the defense to shut down Picket and this could be

796
00:40:09,120 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: first to thirteen wins, first ten wins. I don't know,

797
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: maybe a defensive touchdown if if Huntly gets loosed with

798
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 1: the ball. But I will almost certainly be taking Carolina,

799
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 1: um not Carolina, well Carolina, but also the Baltimore Ravens

800
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 1: in the contest, one that I bet and I really

801
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 1: really really badly want to take, but I know a

802
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 1: lot of people are against me. Philadelphia Eagles favored by

803
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:32,240
Speaker 1: seven on the road. Yes, I've seen Philly has struggled

804
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 1: on the road. I think they haven't. I think they're

805
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 1: like one in four against the spread on the road

806
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 1: in their last five something like that. But they could

807
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 1: not care cover in Houston did not cover an Indie

808
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,080
Speaker 1: needed some luck. This is a play against the Giants

809
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,800
Speaker 1: overtime game defense on the field for a d do plays.

810
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: They know what's ahead next week in Washington. Philadelphia is

811
00:40:56,960 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 1: I think about as healthy as they've been. If you noticed,

812
00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 1: since they got linve All Joseph and and Dominican Sue

813
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:06,200
Speaker 1: and now Jordan Davis is back, healthy, teams have struggled

814
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 1: to run on them. Jordan Davis only came back last week,

815
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 1: but they haven't. I think they're giving up like nineties

816
00:41:10,680 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: seven yards rushing per games since they acquired those two

817
00:41:13,440 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 1: and now Jordan Davis is back, and if you take

818
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 1: away the run from s Kwon Barkley, I just I'm

819
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,439
Speaker 1: just very curious where we're gonna find Daniel Jones. Here's

820
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:23,759
Speaker 1: gonna be putting the ball in the air, because that's

821
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:25,279
Speaker 1: what I want to see if I'm in the Eagles fan,

822
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:28,040
Speaker 1: and I do have some concerns about the Eagles offense

823
00:41:28,120 --> 00:41:31,759
Speaker 1: kind of regressing after that outburst against Tennessee, but I

824
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: can't resist it. I'm sorry, guys. Eagles seven on the

825
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 1: road Jacksonville three and a half. It's probably going to

826
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: be a contest. Pick for me. I do want to

827
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,520
Speaker 1: see the Trevor Lawrence update as late as I can

828
00:41:41,560 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 1: see it. I just don't think Tennessee is very good

829
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 1: to trail on Burke's injury. You gotta look at that

830
00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 1: injury report for the Titans. They got beat up badly.

831
00:41:50,480 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 1: Burke's concussion is significant. If Denico Autry can't play again,

832
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: they're getting no pressure. That secondary is getting lit up.

833
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:00,080
Speaker 1: It could be a good big game for Chris and

834
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 1: Kirk in my fantasy playoffs. I like a lot about

835
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: the Jaguars this week. Dallas Cowboys seventeen. Listen. I told

836
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 1: you guys earlier this week, I bet it. I can't

837
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:09,840
Speaker 1: go out here and tell you go ahead, lay it

838
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 1: with Dallas. I did you know everybody's in a different

839
00:42:13,400 --> 00:42:17,280
Speaker 1: financial stratosphere. Um, I don't mind laying seventeen with Dallas.

840
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 1: I know that goes against every lesson never bet double

841
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 1: digit favorites. Uh, seventeen is three scores. I mean Dallas

842
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:25,800
Speaker 1: could be up twenty four nothing and David S. Mills

843
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: comes in the back door with a touchdown and you

844
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:32,000
Speaker 1: gotta push or they go for two. You know. But

845
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:34,360
Speaker 1: the problem is Dallas only gonna score twenty four points,

846
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: and then there's no look ahead spot with Jacksonville looming

847
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: for Dallas. Uh. The only potential distraction I see is

848
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: this Odell Beckham stuff, but that's hardly an issue for me.

849
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,919
Speaker 1: Davids Mills back under center. Maybe Dallas takes them lightly,

850
00:42:48,239 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 1: but we haven't seen them take anybody lightly. Really, this

851
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,759
Speaker 1: Dallas defense should be swarming lead league in sacks. I

852
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 1: love everything I've seen from Dallas. I know, I know

853
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 1: I've been irrationally high on them guys, but it's a

854
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 1: damn good Dallas Cowboys team. Just be careful, I know, McCarthy.

855
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 1: In the postseason, there's some questions. Yes, those are very

856
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 1: valid questions, but um, I think I like Dallas at seventeen.

857
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:11,799
Speaker 1: Chargers getting three this is kind of a wait and

858
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:14,080
Speaker 1: see the big news for the Charges. This was three

859
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:17,399
Speaker 1: and a half, now down to three. Charger's offensive lines

860
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 1: getting healthy, boast tackles and Corey Linsley practicing doesn't mean

861
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 1: they're gonna play. Let's see what the injury report says

862
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 1: later today. But I think this is a spot where

863
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert's able to feast under very overrated Dolphin secondary.

864
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 1: Remember brock Purty did a pretty damn good job move

865
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 1: to the football. Justin Herbert is gonna make it rain

866
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:44,400
Speaker 1: out there. Okay, Williams back allegedly, Keenan Allen Um, even Palmer, Eckler, Everett.

867
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 1: This is the total. Here's fifty two highest I believe. Yeah, yeah,

868
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 1: it's actually fifty two and a half. So it's higher

869
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 1: than Vikings Lions. I really want it, by the way,

870
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 1: in that game, I really want to take the Lions.

871
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 1: But everybody in their mom is on the Lions, so

872
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 1: of course that's a game that they're gonna ship the bed.

873
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,640
Speaker 1: Jared Goff is gonna just be awful, and Kirk Cousins

874
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 1: is going to be like an m VP candidate, so

875
00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,640
Speaker 1: I'm a little leari taking him in the contest. I

876
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 1: would love it if the Vikings go down the field

877
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: and score touchdown and I can get the Lions at

878
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 1: like maybe a four four and a half I'm sorry,

879
00:44:16,800 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 1: not four. They would they would be favored. Um. I

880
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:21,640
Speaker 1: was saying if I could get the Lions, that are

881
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 1: an underdog price if they fall behind early, because this

882
00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 1: team will come back. But the Lions first halfs have

883
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 1: been incredible. One of the best scoring teams in the

884
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,040
Speaker 1: first half of the league. I would love an early deficit.

885
00:44:32,440 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: Then they're not favorite, they might be slight dogs at

886
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: down seven nothing, I think there's even more value on

887
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,200
Speaker 1: the Lions. I'm not going to talk about the Jets

888
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 1: here because I'm actually nervous about this game. If Mike

889
00:44:42,239 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 1: White embarrasses himself like he did against the Buffalo Bills

890
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 1: last year with four interceptions, we're back to square one

891
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 1: and maybe seeing Zack Wilson under center next week, and

892
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 1: then it's like, oh, we went from yeah, Mike White,

893
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: good story two games too. Oh got it? Okay, he

894
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,960
Speaker 1: can't play good teams. That's what Zach Wilson was dealing.

895
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:01,839
Speaker 1: And then you need to draft the quarterback where you're

896
00:45:01,840 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: getting the Derek car sweepstakes. It's a big game for

897
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: the Jets. I am nervous. Bills have revenge on the mind,

898
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: but they also have two a looming next week in

899
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 1: what is a massive revenge game, and we'll probably lock

900
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 1: up the division if they win these next two weeks.

901
00:45:15,840 --> 00:45:18,239
Speaker 1: It's a great card. I'm not even gonna talk about

902
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 1: Broncos Chiefs. I want to take the Chiefs, but nine

903
00:45:20,640 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 1: and a half on the road and no thanks, Niners, Bucks.

904
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: It's for me forty Niners or nothing. I would love

905
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 1: to see Tom Brady in this pathetic Bucks offense even

906
00:45:30,440 --> 00:45:32,919
Speaker 1: try to move the football against the Niners. I don't

907
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 1: know what they're possibly gonna do. Like, seriously, this is

908
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:38,480
Speaker 1: you know what this game is gonna remind me of.

909
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:42,759
Speaker 1: Remember that ugly Tampa Green Bay game earlier this year

910
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 1: where it was like fourteen twelve was the final. It

911
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:49,959
Speaker 1: was just ugly, slow, defenses dominated. I think that's gonna

912
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,319
Speaker 1: be the case here. There is some concern like if

913
00:45:52,320 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: brock Purty is bad where he has to play from behind,

914
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 1: Like let's say Tampa gets a kickoff return, touchdown, punt return, touchdown,

915
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: defensive touch something, and they're up seven nothing or ten nothing? Like.

916
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 1: Do I like brock Purty having to come from behind?

917
00:46:05,280 --> 00:46:08,200
Speaker 1: Not particularly? Um, but I do like the Niners here.

918
00:46:08,239 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 1: I think they win unbelievably. I just talked my way

919
00:46:11,160 --> 00:46:13,239
Speaker 1: through every game on the freaking card. Six teams on

920
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 1: a buy a lot of betting opportunities. I'll close out

921
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 1: with a couple. Um. I'm also on the under in

922
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: first half Cincinnati Cleveland, I got under twenty three. I

923
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 1: am over forty four on Jets bills. Looks like it's

924
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:28,839
Speaker 1: come down. So the lines moved against me. That's wonderful news.

925
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 1: I'm on under forty three in case Denver, that's now

926
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:35,080
Speaker 1: forty four. Line moving against me as well. Some either

927
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 1: some great reads or everybody else is wrong and I'm

928
00:46:38,040 --> 00:46:41,439
Speaker 1: right um in the World Cup. Now, the World Cup

929
00:46:41,440 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 1: has been a boon for me. Unbelievable run. I have

930
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 1: Brazil and under two and a half goals. I try

931
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,160
Speaker 1: to predict the score exactly. I have two to one

932
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: Brazil at pretty good odds. I have Venisius Jr. Anytime

933
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 1: goal score. I'm throwing a dart with Rich Charleston as

934
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:03,040
Speaker 1: first goals or for Brazil. I just I don't see

935
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 1: Croatia coming back from an exhausting game against Japan that

936
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 1: went over time, that went penalty kicks. Meanwhile, Brazil is

937
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:15,080
Speaker 1: fully rested after beating down South Korea. I tried to

938
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 1: look into the history of teams that losing penalty kicks

939
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: in the round of sixteen, how they do in the quarterfinals.

940
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: There really wasn't anything going back to like two thousand

941
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:27,160
Speaker 1: and six, nothing that jumped out. But Croatia also and

942
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: this is the key factor. They had, according to one report,

943
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,960
Speaker 1: the oldest starting lineup of any team in the round

944
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 1: of sixteen since two thousand and six. So then you've

945
00:47:38,760 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 1: got to go overtime penalty kicks against a pretty damn

946
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 1: good Japan team. So I have Brazil here. I don't

947
00:47:46,320 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 1: know anybody that's not liking Brazil. That would be a

948
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 1: colossal upset. In the other match today, I have Argentina Netherlands.

949
00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 1: I have I like Argentina in this one, but I

950
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: am a little concerned. I think this one could be close. Um,

951
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: I actually have draw and Argentina wins in overtime. So

952
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,160
Speaker 1: Netherlands is face of good teams, but nothing like Argentina.

953
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 1: This is a huge step up in class. Argentina has

954
00:48:12,640 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 1: looked pedestrian on the back line, the midfield has been

955
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 1: just okay and frankly, I don't think we've seen Argentina

956
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 1: totally turn it on yet. They look good for twenty

957
00:48:22,520 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: five minutes against Mexico. They shredded Australia for a bit,

958
00:48:26,360 --> 00:48:29,799
Speaker 1: but didn't totally run away and hide. This could be

959
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:34,880
Speaker 1: the game. Knowing that Brazil is next, Argentina Brazil rematch

960
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: from the Coppa America Final one by Argentina. If you

961
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: are really looking far far ahead, how's this? You know?

962
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 1: I put some in Spain after they advanced to um

963
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 1: in Germany was eliminated Spain to win the World Cup.

964
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,720
Speaker 1: That's out the window with Morocco gone. But that side

965
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 1: of the bracket, who's coming out? Is it port Portugal?

966
00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:00,400
Speaker 1: Is it England? Is it France? Because the way it

967
00:49:00,520 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 1: shapes up Brazil and Argentina in the semifinal is going

968
00:49:03,680 --> 00:49:08,799
Speaker 1: to be just an unbelievably massive game, absolutely draining for

969
00:49:08,840 --> 00:49:13,839
Speaker 1: both these teams, humongous rivalry to South American powers, and

970
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 1: it's the kind of game where in the n C

971
00:49:16,480 --> 00:49:21,239
Speaker 1: A tournament, awesome matchup, the two teams battle in you know,

972
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 1: the Sweet sixteen or whatever, and then they go to

973
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 1: the Elite eight and they're just so drained from that

974
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: game that they lose. And I can definitely see the

975
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 1: winner of Brazil and Argentina losing in the final two.

976
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:38,479
Speaker 1: And my my guest today is England. But I don't

977
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 1: know if I'm speaking with my heart on England because

978
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,920
Speaker 1: I'm kind of rooting for them. I am betting them

979
00:49:43,960 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 1: to beat France. I have England winning in overtime as

980
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:51,479
Speaker 1: a bet England money line plus one um second half

981
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 1: the highest scoring half. England France is going to be

982
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 1: everything Saturday morning. Now, my son has a volleyball tournament

983
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 1: this weekend. We don't have the times yet, so I

984
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 1: will be watching on my phone. I've already asked a

985
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,399
Speaker 1: couple of dads who I know, UM like, not can

986
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:07,719
Speaker 1: I use your hot spot? But um hey, I might

987
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 1: need it given the TV viewing options. Neither the dad

988
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 1: will be there. One of them has a birthday party

989
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 1: in Vegas. I'm like, jeez, that's not bad. The other

990
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,120
Speaker 1: one is is hosting this incredible event in l A

991
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 1: And so now I'm like, jeez, I might have to

992
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:24,000
Speaker 1: get to a TV. Maybe I'll have to watch it

993
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 1: in the car and just miss my kids volleyball match.

994
00:50:26,360 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 1: I mean England France. That's that's must C TV. I'll

995
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:32,439
Speaker 1: figure it out. And the other one Portugal Morocco. As

996
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 1: I explained with the Croatia Japan situation, Portugal Morocco Morocco

997
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 1: exhausting defensive effort to beat Spain overtime penalty kicks. That

998
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 1: team is still celebrating the victory. I'm certain of it.

999
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:50,360
Speaker 1: The country. We know is Morocco greatest win in the

1000
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 1: in the history of the country in soccer, and now

1001
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 1: you gotta bounce back and play Portugal coming off a

1002
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 1: six one victory. And the other interesting aspect is if

1003
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:03,960
Speaker 1: you're more Brocco, you do you game plan for Christiano

1004
00:51:04,040 --> 00:51:07,319
Speaker 1: Ronaldo starting or his backup? Who Oh, by the way,

1005
00:51:07,320 --> 00:51:08,600
Speaker 1: he had a hat trick And I was talking to

1006
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 1: my dad about my frustrations with the US inability to

1007
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: find a striker, and just I laid this out, like

1008
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:21,200
Speaker 1: we scored three goals in four games. That's it. Our

1009
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 1: strikers have never delivered at the World Cup and not

1010
00:51:23,719 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 1: in many, many years. Portugal puts on a backup for

1011
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 1: Christiano Ronaldo, who is one of the five greatest players

1012
00:51:31,880 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 1: in the history of soccer when you look at his accomplishments.

1013
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 1: His backup is a twenty one year old and he

1014
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: gets a hat trick in sixty five minutes and we

1015
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:41,360
Speaker 1: can't get a forward to score two goals at the

1016
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,600
Speaker 1: World Cup. Like, it's just staggering when you really put

1017
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 1: it into that context. At any rate, I like Portugal

1018
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:50,359
Speaker 1: against Morocco. I like it at one nothing. I think

1019
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: Portugal gets a goal in the first half and they

1020
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 1: have a very stout defense. Portugal's dangerous here, folks, because

1021
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 1: again England France is going to be a war. I

1022
00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: cannot wait for that game. I think it's the greatest

1023
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 1: game here of the quarterfinals and that winner, I think

1024
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 1: we'll face Portugal and I think Portugal is gonna be

1025
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:10,880
Speaker 1: live in that one. Um, if you're looking for a

1026
00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:15,400
Speaker 1: goal scorer in England France, everybody's gonna bet Bob. But

1027
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 1: I love this matchup about Kyle Walker. And if you

1028
00:52:19,320 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 1: know anything about soccer, Kyle Walker is the um fullback

1029
00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: for England. He also plays for Manchester City, one of

1030
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 1: the fastest marking backs UH fullbacks in the world. And

1031
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 1: I was texting some soccer friends like what about this

1032
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 1: Kyle Walker Bob a matchup and they were like, oh,

1033
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 1: Walker has shut him down before. And the key is

1034
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: Walker plays at man City. And I only know this

1035
00:52:39,120 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 1: because I play some FIFA with Stones, another fullback on England.

1036
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 1: So they have in a match I guess recently in

1037
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:50,400
Speaker 1: the last two years shut down Embabe. That will be

1038
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 1: fascinating the familiarity of the England defense and Embobe. So

1039
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:57,200
Speaker 1: I have Harry Kane scoring um in England's game, I

1040
00:52:57,280 --> 00:53:01,279
Speaker 1: have a draw and regulation in England, winning and overtime. Again,

1041
00:53:01,360 --> 00:53:02,879
Speaker 1: some of these are dart throws. You know, you put

1042
00:53:02,880 --> 00:53:05,320
Speaker 1: down fifty bucks Hunter bucks and you can win a lot.

1043
00:53:05,800 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily recommend doing that, depending on your bank roll.

1044
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:16,480
Speaker 1: But again, England, Portugal, Brazil and Argentina. Argentina, I think

1045
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: I'm a little Ifiana. I'm a little nervous about that

1046
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 1: game against otherlands. Anyways, that's a long podcast. Will be

1047
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 1: back Monday. Hopefully the Jets will have taken down the bills.

1048
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 1: You'll win all your bets, the world couple will go

1049
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: my way. We'll talk to you then