WEBVTT - Petersen Institute's Adam Posen Talks Inflation, Tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, long agoing far away.

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<v Speaker 1>A wonderful person who was a great supporter of mine

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<v Speaker 1>in the early years at stan Freeburg was Fred Burston

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<v Speaker 1>and he was at the Peterson what became the Peterson Institute.

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<v Speaker 1>The toughest job was to pick up from Fred, and

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<v Speaker 1>that is what Adam Posen has done with grace. To

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<v Speaker 1>say the least. The only one working harder than Adam

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<v Speaker 1>Posen at the Peterson Institute is Chad Bone, who hasn't

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<v Speaker 1>a day off since time began. As we look at

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<v Speaker 1>this trade mess, we're in bonus round. Adam Posen is

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<v Speaker 1>expert on the German political economic experiment. Doctor Posen, thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much for joining us today. If Doug err

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<v Speaker 1>went up at Dartmouth was to rewrite his history of

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<v Speaker 1>the tariffs and all, what would Doug Irwin? What would

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<v Speaker 1>Adam Posen be writing right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Tom for having me back. And everyone should read

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<v Speaker 2>Chad Bound and Doug Irwin's new piece and Foreign Affairs

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<v Speaker 2>that just came out on tariffs. Doug has made the

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<v Speaker 2>point repeatedly their charts on THEEPIE website that this is

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<v Speaker 2>historically unprecedented. You really have to go back one hundred years,

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<v Speaker 2>ninety plus years to Smooth Hollie to see anything like

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<v Speaker 2>this in terms of the size scope of tariffs. But

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<v Speaker 2>even more so, this is much more uncertain. As he's

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<v Speaker 2>pointed out Chad, Mary Lovely and I in various ways,

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<v Speaker 2>this is an exercise of discretionary presidential power. I'll leave

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<v Speaker 2>aside the constitutionality or the issues of politics, but just

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<v Speaker 2>from an economic point of view, in the past, when

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<v Speaker 2>there have been large moves of tariffs, it's mostly been

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<v Speaker 2>in the US because Congress has authorized them. This is

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<v Speaker 2>being done day to day or as justin Wolfer's joked

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<v Speaker 2>intra day changes on presidential whim, and that creates even

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<v Speaker 2>more uncertainty. Take them what Doug would say, We're in

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<v Speaker 2>new territory and at ain't pretty.

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<v Speaker 1>Professor Erwin joining us from Dartmouth will do that on

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<v Speaker 1>Friday here in Bloomberg Surveillance. Doctor Posen, as simple as

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<v Speaker 1>I can. Krugman with his Nobel speech would look at

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<v Speaker 1>the microeconomics of the moment and it'd be a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of fancy Adam Posen talk. Forget about it. What's the

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<v Speaker 1>dead weight loss for our audience right now? Our audience

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<v Speaker 1>in Winnipeg, our audience in Wisconsin. What's the dead weight

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<v Speaker 1>loss given all of.

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<v Speaker 2>This on the order of one thousand plus dollars a

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<v Speaker 2>year for the average household, higher for lower income households.

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<v Speaker 2>And that doesn't include the hits to retirement funds or

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<v Speaker 2>the going forward the lower opportunities because investments getting chilled.

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<v Speaker 2>Direct hit is on the order of one thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 2>per household. You could argue if the tariffs get stick

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<v Speaker 2>or if they put on the across the board tariffs,

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<v Speaker 2>it gets closer to fifteen hundred to two thousand dollars

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<v Speaker 2>a household.

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<v Speaker 3>Adam, I'm hearing the recession word more and more over

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<v Speaker 3>the last several weeks. Is that in your cactus anywhere?

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<v Speaker 2>So? I've been saying for a while, the hell did.

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<v Speaker 2>I was expecting a large boom and then fed induced

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<v Speaker 2>bust under Trump. But I always held out that this

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<v Speaker 2>was a radical enough program that it was bimodal, meaning

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<v Speaker 2>again simple talk, it wasn't going to end up in

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<v Speaker 2>the middle. It was going to be one of two outcomes.

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<v Speaker 2>I had the recession probability only at like fifteen plus percent,

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<v Speaker 2>so no different than anybody in a normal time. But

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<v Speaker 2>what I kept saying, and this may have been a hedge,

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<v Speaker 2>but it turns out to be reality, was if Trump

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<v Speaker 2>administration overdid it on tariffs, on migration, on fiscal follies,

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<v Speaker 2>that that would swap us into the tariff around the

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<v Speaker 2>xused me into the recession camp. I've up my recession

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<v Speaker 2>subjective probability to thirty percent. I still think it's more

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<v Speaker 2>likely than not we get a boom bust. But you

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<v Speaker 2>throw in the geopolitical shock, which is enormous and which

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<v Speaker 2>really changes the game for Europe and for everybody. And

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<v Speaker 2>then you throw in the fact that Doge shutting down

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<v Speaker 2>environment education in USAID. I may not like, but I

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<v Speaker 2>expected that throwing a miasma of similar uncertainty overall government contracting,

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<v Speaker 2>all government workforce has huge effects. So, yeah, the recession

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<v Speaker 2>risk has gone way up.

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<v Speaker 3>From some of President Trump's policy people, We're starting to

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<v Speaker 3>hear more and more discussion that what the President is

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<v Speaker 3>aiming to do is to kind of reshape the US

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<v Speaker 3>economy to bring more manufacturing back to the US, and

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<v Speaker 3>some folks are concerned that that's kind of counter intuitive

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<v Speaker 3>to what we've experienced over the last fifty sixty seventy

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<v Speaker 3>years of more of a globalization and and at least

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<v Speaker 3>in the US economy, focus on the services part of

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<v Speaker 3>the economy. How do you view this potential pology policy

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<v Speaker 3>shift for the US.

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<v Speaker 2>I view it as a very mistaken policy shift for

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<v Speaker 2>two reasons. First, in line with what you said, increasing

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<v Speaker 2>manufacturing employment or literal production within US borders isn't necessarily

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<v Speaker 2>a good thing. If they want to force Americans to

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<v Speaker 2>do rare earth's mining or production of generic pharmaceuticals, those

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<v Speaker 2>are steps backward for US workers, and so you would

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<v Speaker 2>either have to vastly overpay, which then makes it totally

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<v Speaker 2>uncompetitive internationally and totally in inflation for the domestic household,

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<v Speaker 2>or you're just subjecting American workers to bad jobs that

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<v Speaker 2>were too well endowed and skilled to do. The second reason, though,

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<v Speaker 2>is it's just not going to work. My colleague Robert Lawrence,

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<v Speaker 2>who's at Harvard and Peterson Institute, had a book out

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<v Speaker 2>fall called Behind the Curve, which I think established brilliantly

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<v Speaker 2>that even if you fantasize about going back to nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>fifty eight and a bunch of guys getting to be

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<v Speaker 2>big bread owners, breadwinners, for their families with no education,

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<v Speaker 2>which there's reasons you might like that. It's just not

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<v Speaker 2>going to happen because the total taste of the world

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<v Speaker 2>and the movement of technology for that globalization has made

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<v Speaker 2>it impossible to create large numbers of manufacturing jobs of

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<v Speaker 2>that sort. So it's a bad goal and it's not

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<v Speaker 2>going to work.

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<v Speaker 1>We continue with Adam posing the Peterson Institute again. Doug

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<v Speaker 1>Irwin with us on Friday from Dartmouth. Breek Krona coming

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<v Speaker 1>up as well from Wellington. Good morning across the nation.

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<v Speaker 1>Good Morning ninety two to nine FM in Boston, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm down to ninety nine one FM in Washington, DC

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<v Speaker 1>as well. Adam. We got a good amount of time here.

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<v Speaker 1>I want to slip this in. I think it's so important.

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<v Speaker 1>Robert Zelik is somebody that I think more than anyone,

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<v Speaker 1>takes our international economics and our sense of constructive globalization

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<v Speaker 1>and folds it into American business. He's been on fire recently.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the message you've taken from one of our trade giants.

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<v Speaker 2>I agree Robert is Bob Zelek is here out of

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<v Speaker 2>me and is a statesperson of the longtime ideal for

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<v Speaker 2>the US and he integrates diplomacy, history, security economics like nobody.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, here's a sentence, and here's a sentence. The zero

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<v Speaker 1>sum logic reverts back to a view in the nineteenth

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<v Speaker 1>and eighteenth centuries called mercantilism. Is that's from Zelek? Is

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<v Speaker 1>that where we are this morning?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that is where we are. I mean when you

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<v Speaker 2>listen to the president, President Trump give the rant he

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<v Speaker 2>gave yesterday about Canada was very unfair. You EU is

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<v Speaker 2>terribly unfair, on and on an on again. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>presume the tok psychology, but as a matter of economic facts,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just a completely self polluted view. It's not true

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<v Speaker 2>on the facts, but it only makes sense if you

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<v Speaker 2>have the mercantilist blinders on, which means you see trade

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<v Speaker 2>as negative some not even zero sum. And you see,

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<v Speaker 2>again going back to the previous comment that only making

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<v Speaker 2>physical stuff matters, and this is just not true. You

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<v Speaker 2>can make national security arguments and Bob would allow for

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<v Speaker 2>this too. That specifically referspect to China or given industry

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<v Speaker 2>like semiconductors. You don't want to have too much concentration

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<v Speaker 2>risk dependence on a particular thing. Even there though you

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<v Speaker 2>don't want to be putting up barriers around, so you're

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<v Speaker 2>dependent on some American company that happens to be a

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<v Speaker 2>friend of the president's and is overly protected, too big

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<v Speaker 2>to fail and makes plains to drop out of the

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<v Speaker 2>spy or semiconductors don't really work right, So you know,

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<v Speaker 2>this is a huge step backward. Where I think Bob

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<v Speaker 2>is much more articulate than I'm being is the international

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<v Speaker 2>systemic part of this, right, There is a feedback loop

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<v Speaker 2>for the US, and this is what I think Trump

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<v Speaker 2>and his and Bessentin has it. Whether they know it

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<v Speaker 2>or not, whether they think it's a means to an

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<v Speaker 2>end or not, I don't know, but they're ignoring that.

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<v Speaker 2>The US, as I argued in Foreign Affairs a few

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<v Speaker 2>years ago, was chairman of the club and therefore got

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<v Speaker 2>to set the rules, got to self deal, got to

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<v Speaker 2>determine who was members, but it had to behave within

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<v Speaker 2>some reasonable set of rules and provide the club some benefits.

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<v Speaker 2>And once the US just says I'm a member and

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<v Speaker 2>a member who may even leave the club, the club

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<v Speaker 2>goes on without you.

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube live chat, thank you out on YouTube. Huge audience

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. Paul Sweeney, Tom you need a beard like

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<v Speaker 1>Adam posts.

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<v Speaker 3>Oh there, I mean there it is.

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<v Speaker 1>Adam's not shaven until the red sox in first place.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see when that happens.

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<v Speaker 2>Continual, sustainably in first place.

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<v Speaker 3>Sustainably in first place. Hey, Adam, I think most Americans

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<v Speaker 3>would agree that this US government, federal government is bloated,

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<v Speaker 3>it's bureaucratic, wh's red tape, all that good stuff. Is Doge.

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<v Speaker 3>The way to address that.

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<v Speaker 2>Not so far. I mean, Paul, You're right, most Americans

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<v Speaker 2>would agree, and there's certainly a point there. I think

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<v Speaker 2>what I tried to say to people before Doge got

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<v Speaker 2>started was the issue with government isn't so much waste fraud.

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<v Speaker 2>It's that because of politics, every task has seventeen key

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<v Speaker 2>performance indicators, has seventeen different constituencies, and then gets funded

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<v Speaker 2>to seventy five eighty percent of what it needs to do.

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<v Speaker 2>That at best, and so what you needed to do.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is the place where I think an outside

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<v Speaker 2>government reform effort could have been good is saying, let's prioritize,

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<v Speaker 2>not let the accumulation through the years of individual, little

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<v Speaker 2>congressional or special interest moves determine our budget. Determine our priorities.

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<v Speaker 2>So again, I'm not in favor of getting rid of education,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm totally against getting rid of USAID. But in

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<v Speaker 2>a sense, as a process, if they had just come

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<v Speaker 2>in and said we're taking out this whole department and

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<v Speaker 2>we're doing this instead, that's okay as a process. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not okay to create terror across the workforce. It's not

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<v Speaker 2>okay to make government contractors not get paid for stuff

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<v Speaker 2>they've already done and not know what they're going to get.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not okay to blow up whole ecosystems just because

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<v Speaker 2>they're in government. And most of all, if you did

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<v Speaker 2>it by priorities, things like energy grid, nuclear power experts,

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<v Speaker 2>air traffic control, and NIH directly into World R and D,

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<v Speaker 2>those things would have been spared because they're directly helpful

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<v Speaker 2>to the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>Adam, I got to do an audible here before we

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<v Speaker 1>let you go. And you know, we all know in

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<v Speaker 1>academics that you are expert on Germany. Let's go back

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<v Speaker 1>to June in nineteen sixty three, when time stop. President

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<v Speaker 1>Obama reducts JFK's unbelievable speech in the heart of the

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<v Speaker 1>Cold War, want ready for my German Paul I nailed it,

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<v Speaker 1>not even close. Oh I got a D minus there,

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<v Speaker 1>But the professor got hockey tickets, so it worked out.

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<v Speaker 1>Adam Posen, you are expert on this. Is this a

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<v Speaker 1>Germany in this new Germany with Conrad at an hour

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<v Speaker 1>and Villi Brandt, would they recognize it?

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<v Speaker 2>They'd have trouble, and that's a good thing. They would

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<v Speaker 2>have trouble imagining a Germany that pursues security without being

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<v Speaker 2>totally reliant on the US. They would have trouble imagining

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<v Speaker 2>a Germany that does use it fiscal capabilities more more

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<v Speaker 2>than not. And they would have trouble with the Germany

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<v Speaker 2>that explicitly is going to rearm. But I think it's

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<v Speaker 2>the right move for Germany. I mean, you've seen the

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<v Speaker 2>meme on Twitter Tom that Chancellor Chancellor Merits incoming. Chancellor

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<v Speaker 2>Merits is shown with the big smartest face, and then

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<v Speaker 2>the blurb is when you realize you can borrow just

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<v Speaker 2>like any other European country. You know, this is genuine progress.

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<v Speaker 2>It's sad that it took the threat to NATO and

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<v Speaker 2>the threat from Russia in the US to make it happen,

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<v Speaker 2>But I think this is a genuine leap board as

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<v Speaker 2>opposed to previous Chancellor Schultz. Site and benda changed, changing time.

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<v Speaker 2>This is the real one right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Generous conversation, Thank you so much. Folks. Look at Chad

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<v Speaker 1>Boone and the rest at Peterson Institute for terrific thought

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<v Speaker 1>provoking essays in the chaos of where we are now.