1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:09,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, long agoing far away. 2 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: A wonderful person who was a great supporter of mine 3 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:16,400 Speaker 1: in the early years at stan Freeburg was Fred Burston 4 00:00:16,560 --> 00:00:20,360 Speaker 1: and he was at the Peterson what became the Peterson Institute. 5 00:00:20,520 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: The toughest job was to pick up from Fred, and 6 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: that is what Adam Posen has done with grace. To 7 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: say the least. The only one working harder than Adam 8 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:33,200 Speaker 1: Posen at the Peterson Institute is Chad Bone, who hasn't 9 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 1: a day off since time began. As we look at 10 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: this trade mess, we're in bonus round. Adam Posen is 11 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: expert on the German political economic experiment. Doctor Posen, thank 12 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,440 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us today. If Doug err 13 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: went up at Dartmouth was to rewrite his history of 14 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,880 Speaker 1: the tariffs and all, what would Doug Irwin? What would 15 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: Adam Posen be writing right now? 16 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 2: Thanks Tom for having me back. And everyone should read 17 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 2: Chad Bound and Doug Irwin's new piece and Foreign Affairs 18 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:09,920 Speaker 2: that just came out on tariffs. Doug has made the 19 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 2: point repeatedly their charts on THEEPIE website that this is 20 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 2: historically unprecedented. You really have to go back one hundred years, 21 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 2: ninety plus years to Smooth Hollie to see anything like 22 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,959 Speaker 2: this in terms of the size scope of tariffs. But 23 00:01:26,040 --> 00:01:29,600 Speaker 2: even more so, this is much more uncertain. As he's 24 00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:33,759 Speaker 2: pointed out Chad, Mary Lovely and I in various ways, 25 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:39,200 Speaker 2: this is an exercise of discretionary presidential power. I'll leave 26 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 2: aside the constitutionality or the issues of politics, but just 27 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: from an economic point of view, in the past, when 28 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:49,559 Speaker 2: there have been large moves of tariffs, it's mostly been 29 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 2: in the US because Congress has authorized them. This is 30 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 2: being done day to day or as justin Wolfer's joked 31 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: intra day changes on presidential whim, and that creates even 32 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 2: more uncertainty. Take them what Doug would say, We're in 33 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 2: new territory and at ain't pretty. 34 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: Professor Erwin joining us from Dartmouth will do that on 35 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: Friday here in Bloomberg Surveillance. Doctor Posen, as simple as 36 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: I can. Krugman with his Nobel speech would look at 37 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: the microeconomics of the moment and it'd be a lot 38 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: of fancy Adam Posen talk. Forget about it. What's the 39 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: dead weight loss for our audience right now? Our audience 40 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: in Winnipeg, our audience in Wisconsin. What's the dead weight 41 00:02:34,320 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: loss given all of. 42 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 2: This on the order of one thousand plus dollars a 43 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 2: year for the average household, higher for lower income households. 44 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 2: And that doesn't include the hits to retirement funds or 45 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 2: the going forward the lower opportunities because investments getting chilled. 46 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 2: Direct hit is on the order of one thousand dollars 47 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:59,920 Speaker 2: per household. You could argue if the tariffs get stick 48 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 2: or if they put on the across the board tariffs, 49 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 2: it gets closer to fifteen hundred to two thousand dollars 50 00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: a household. 51 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 3: Adam, I'm hearing the recession word more and more over 52 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:14,040 Speaker 3: the last several weeks. Is that in your cactus anywhere? 53 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 2: So? I've been saying for a while, the hell did. 54 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 2: I was expecting a large boom and then fed induced 55 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 2: bust under Trump. But I always held out that this 56 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,280 Speaker 2: was a radical enough program that it was bimodal, meaning 57 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 2: again simple talk, it wasn't going to end up in 58 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 2: the middle. It was going to be one of two outcomes. 59 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 2: I had the recession probability only at like fifteen plus percent, 60 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 2: so no different than anybody in a normal time. But 61 00:03:41,720 --> 00:03:43,760 Speaker 2: what I kept saying, and this may have been a hedge, 62 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 2: but it turns out to be reality, was if Trump 63 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:53,119 Speaker 2: administration overdid it on tariffs, on migration, on fiscal follies, 64 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 2: that that would swap us into the tariff around the 65 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,200 Speaker 2: xused me into the recession camp. I've up my recession 66 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 2: subjective probability to thirty percent. I still think it's more 67 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 2: likely than not we get a boom bust. But you 68 00:04:08,160 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 2: throw in the geopolitical shock, which is enormous and which 69 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 2: really changes the game for Europe and for everybody. And 70 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:19,679 Speaker 2: then you throw in the fact that Doge shutting down 71 00:04:20,520 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 2: environment education in USAID. I may not like, but I 72 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 2: expected that throwing a miasma of similar uncertainty overall government contracting, 73 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 2: all government workforce has huge effects. So, yeah, the recession 74 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 2: risk has gone way up. 75 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 3: From some of President Trump's policy people, We're starting to 76 00:04:40,279 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 3: hear more and more discussion that what the President is 77 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 3: aiming to do is to kind of reshape the US 78 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 3: economy to bring more manufacturing back to the US, and 79 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 3: some folks are concerned that that's kind of counter intuitive 80 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 3: to what we've experienced over the last fifty sixty seventy 81 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 3: years of more of a globalization and and at least 82 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 3: in the US economy, focus on the services part of 83 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:07,440 Speaker 3: the economy. How do you view this potential pology policy 84 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 3: shift for the US. 85 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 2: I view it as a very mistaken policy shift for 86 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 2: two reasons. First, in line with what you said, increasing 87 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 2: manufacturing employment or literal production within US borders isn't necessarily 88 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:26,320 Speaker 2: a good thing. If they want to force Americans to 89 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 2: do rare earth's mining or production of generic pharmaceuticals, those 90 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 2: are steps backward for US workers, and so you would 91 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 2: either have to vastly overpay, which then makes it totally 92 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 2: uncompetitive internationally and totally in inflation for the domestic household, 93 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 2: or you're just subjecting American workers to bad jobs that 94 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 2: were too well endowed and skilled to do. The second reason, though, 95 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 2: is it's just not going to work. My colleague Robert Lawrence, 96 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 2: who's at Harvard and Peterson Institute, had a book out 97 00:06:00,200 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 2: fall called Behind the Curve, which I think established brilliantly 98 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 2: that even if you fantasize about going back to nineteen 99 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:10,719 Speaker 2: fifty eight and a bunch of guys getting to be 100 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 2: big bread owners, breadwinners, for their families with no education, 101 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 2: which there's reasons you might like that. It's just not 102 00:06:18,400 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 2: going to happen because the total taste of the world 103 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 2: and the movement of technology for that globalization has made 104 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 2: it impossible to create large numbers of manufacturing jobs of 105 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 2: that sort. So it's a bad goal and it's not 106 00:06:33,720 --> 00:06:34,280 Speaker 2: going to work. 107 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: We continue with Adam posing the Peterson Institute again. Doug 108 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 1: Irwin with us on Friday from Dartmouth. Breek Krona coming 109 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 1: up as well from Wellington. Good morning across the nation. 110 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: Good Morning ninety two to nine FM in Boston, and 111 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: I'm down to ninety nine one FM in Washington, DC 112 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: as well. Adam. We got a good amount of time here. 113 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 1: I want to slip this in. I think it's so important. 114 00:06:56,920 --> 00:07:00,719 Speaker 1: Robert Zelik is somebody that I think more than anyone, 115 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:05,919 Speaker 1: takes our international economics and our sense of constructive globalization 116 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: and folds it into American business. He's been on fire recently. 117 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 1: What's the message you've taken from one of our trade giants. 118 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 2: I agree Robert is Bob Zelek is here out of 119 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 2: me and is a statesperson of the longtime ideal for 120 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 2: the US and he integrates diplomacy, history, security economics like nobody. 121 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: Okay, here's a sentence, and here's a sentence. The zero 122 00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: sum logic reverts back to a view in the nineteenth 123 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: and eighteenth centuries called mercantilism. Is that's from Zelek? Is 124 00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 1: that where we are this morning? 125 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, that is where we are. I mean when you 126 00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: listen to the president, President Trump give the rant he 127 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:58,240 Speaker 2: gave yesterday about Canada was very unfair. You EU is 128 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 2: terribly unfair, on and on an on again. I don't 129 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 2: presume the tok psychology, but as a matter of economic facts, 130 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 2: it's just a completely self polluted view. It's not true 131 00:08:08,040 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 2: on the facts, but it only makes sense if you 132 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 2: have the mercantilist blinders on, which means you see trade 133 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 2: as negative some not even zero sum. And you see, 134 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 2: again going back to the previous comment that only making 135 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 2: physical stuff matters, and this is just not true. You 136 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 2: can make national security arguments and Bob would allow for 137 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:40,559 Speaker 2: this too. That specifically referspect to China or given industry 138 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 2: like semiconductors. You don't want to have too much concentration 139 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 2: risk dependence on a particular thing. Even there though you 140 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 2: don't want to be putting up barriers around, so you're 141 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 2: dependent on some American company that happens to be a 142 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 2: friend of the president's and is overly protected, too big 143 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 2: to fail and makes plains to drop out of the 144 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: spy or semiconductors don't really work right, So you know, 145 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 2: this is a huge step backward. Where I think Bob 146 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 2: is much more articulate than I'm being is the international 147 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 2: systemic part of this, right, There is a feedback loop 148 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:16,200 Speaker 2: for the US, and this is what I think Trump 149 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 2: and his and Bessentin has it. Whether they know it 150 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 2: or not, whether they think it's a means to an 151 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 2: end or not, I don't know, but they're ignoring that. 152 00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,199 Speaker 2: The US, as I argued in Foreign Affairs a few 153 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,440 Speaker 2: years ago, was chairman of the club and therefore got 154 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 2: to set the rules, got to self deal, got to 155 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 2: determine who was members, but it had to behave within 156 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:41,319 Speaker 2: some reasonable set of rules and provide the club some benefits. 157 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 2: And once the US just says I'm a member and 158 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,839 Speaker 2: a member who may even leave the club, the club 159 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: goes on without you. 160 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: YouTube live chat, thank you out on YouTube. Huge audience 161 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 1: this morning. Paul Sweeney, Tom you need a beard like 162 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:56,319 Speaker 1: Adam posts. 163 00:09:56,320 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 3: Oh there, I mean there it is. 164 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:00,920 Speaker 1: Adam's not shaven until the red sox in first place. 165 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 1: We'll see when that happens. 166 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 2: Continual, sustainably in first place. 167 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 3: Sustainably in first place. Hey, Adam, I think most Americans 168 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 3: would agree that this US government, federal government is bloated, 169 00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:15,559 Speaker 3: it's bureaucratic, wh's red tape, all that good stuff. Is Doge. 170 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 3: The way to address that. 171 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 2: Not so far. I mean, Paul, You're right, most Americans 172 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 2: would agree, and there's certainly a point there. I think 173 00:10:24,160 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 2: what I tried to say to people before Doge got 174 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:32,679 Speaker 2: started was the issue with government isn't so much waste fraud. 175 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 2: It's that because of politics, every task has seventeen key 176 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 2: performance indicators, has seventeen different constituencies, and then gets funded 177 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 2: to seventy five eighty percent of what it needs to do. 178 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 2: That at best, and so what you needed to do. 179 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 2: And this is the place where I think an outside 180 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 2: government reform effort could have been good is saying, let's prioritize, 181 00:10:59,880 --> 00:11:03,880 Speaker 2: not let the accumulation through the years of individual, little 182 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 2: congressional or special interest moves determine our budget. Determine our priorities. 183 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 2: So again, I'm not in favor of getting rid of education, 184 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 2: and I'm totally against getting rid of USAID. But in 185 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 2: a sense, as a process, if they had just come 186 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 2: in and said we're taking out this whole department and 187 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 2: we're doing this instead, that's okay as a process. It's 188 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 2: not okay to create terror across the workforce. It's not 189 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 2: okay to make government contractors not get paid for stuff 190 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,560 Speaker 2: they've already done and not know what they're going to get. 191 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,559 Speaker 2: It's not okay to blow up whole ecosystems just because 192 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 2: they're in government. And most of all, if you did 193 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:52,479 Speaker 2: it by priorities, things like energy grid, nuclear power experts, 194 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 2: air traffic control, and NIH directly into World R and D, 195 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 2: those things would have been spared because they're directly helpful 196 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:03,839 Speaker 2: to the economy. 197 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: Adam, I got to do an audible here before we 198 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:08,719 Speaker 1: let you go. And you know, we all know in 199 00:12:08,840 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: academics that you are expert on Germany. Let's go back 200 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 1: to June in nineteen sixty three, when time stop. President 201 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: Obama reducts JFK's unbelievable speech in the heart of the 202 00:12:20,800 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: Cold War, want ready for my German Paul I nailed it, 203 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 1: not even close. Oh I got a D minus there, 204 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 1: But the professor got hockey tickets, so it worked out. 205 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: Adam Posen, you are expert on this. Is this a 206 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 1: Germany in this new Germany with Conrad at an hour 207 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 1: and Villi Brandt, would they recognize it? 208 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,360 Speaker 2: They'd have trouble, and that's a good thing. They would 209 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,520 Speaker 2: have trouble imagining a Germany that pursues security without being 210 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 2: totally reliant on the US. They would have trouble imagining 211 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 2: a Germany that does use it fiscal capabilities more more 212 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 2: than not. And they would have trouble with the Germany 213 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 2: that explicitly is going to rearm. But I think it's 214 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,520 Speaker 2: the right move for Germany. I mean, you've seen the 215 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 2: meme on Twitter Tom that Chancellor Chancellor Merits incoming. Chancellor 216 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 2: Merits is shown with the big smartest face, and then 217 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,160 Speaker 2: the blurb is when you realize you can borrow just 218 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:31,560 Speaker 2: like any other European country. You know, this is genuine progress. 219 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 2: It's sad that it took the threat to NATO and 220 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 2: the threat from Russia in the US to make it happen, 221 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 2: But I think this is a genuine leap board as 222 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:46,000 Speaker 2: opposed to previous Chancellor Schultz. Site and benda changed, changing time. 223 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 2: This is the real one right now. 224 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: Generous conversation, Thank you so much. Folks. Look at Chad 225 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,559 Speaker 1: Boone and the rest at Peterson Institute for terrific thought 226 00:13:55,640 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 1: provoking essays in the chaos of where we are now.