1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,040
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Day pre acurate podcast, available every

3
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:15,960
Speaker 2: morning on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Monday,

4
00:00:16,000 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 2: the seventeenth of February in London. I'm Caroline Hepki and.

5
00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:21,840
Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today, the Prime Minister Kiir

6
00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:26,239
Speaker 1: Starmer says Britain will send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine if needed.

7
00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 2: France's Emmanuel Macral holds an emergency meeting with key European

8
00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:35,120
Speaker 2: leaders to discuss Ukraine, as Donald Trump says, President Zelenski

9
00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,040
Speaker 2: will be involved in peace talks with Russia.

10
00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:42,560
Speaker 1: Plus boosting business support, China's President Shooting Ping meets key

11
00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,440
Speaker 1: private sector leaders, including the e commerce icon Jack Maher.

12
00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,560
Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. UK

13
00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,240
Speaker 2: Prime Minister Kirs Starmer has pledged to send British peacekeeping

14
00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,800
Speaker 2: troops to Ukraine if needed. Writing in the Telegraph newspaper,

15
00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,800
Speaker 2: he said, we have got to show we are truly

16
00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:04,200
Speaker 2: serious about our own defense and bearing our own burden. However,

17
00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:07,160
Speaker 2: the reality of delivering on that pledge is already in question.

18
00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:10,520
Speaker 2: Speaking to the BBC's The Week in Westminster in advance

19
00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,280
Speaker 2: of those comments, the former head of the British Army,

20
00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,600
Speaker 2: Richard Dannett, warned that the UK would not be able

21
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,240
Speaker 2: to play a leading role in any peacekeeping operation.

22
00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,919
Speaker 3: It would probably require to say, about one hundred thousand people.

23
00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:26,000
Speaker 3: The UK would have to supply quite a proportion of that,

24
00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,760
Speaker 3: and we really couldn't do it. Our military is so

25
00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:32,440
Speaker 3: run down at the present moment numerically and as far

26
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,120
Speaker 3: as capability and equipment is concerned, it would be potentially

27
00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:36,000
Speaker 3: really quite embarrassing.

28
00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:40,959
Speaker 2: Lord Dannett's warning comes after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegsith

29
00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:45,679
Speaker 2: rejected a proposal from Ukraine's President Zelenski for American troops

30
00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:49,320
Speaker 2: to be deployed to help guarantee any cease far with Russia.

31
00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,440
Speaker 1: Starmer is expected to join Germany's Olaf Schultz, Italy's Georgia

32
00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:56,640
Speaker 1: Mononi and other European leaders in Paris today after French

33
00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:01,360
Speaker 1: President Emmanuel Macron convened urgent talks Ukraine and the continents

34
00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:05,120
Speaker 1: wider security. However, the UK Prime Minister faces domestic pressure

35
00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,000
Speaker 1: to say whether he'll raise Britain's defense spending or when

36
00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,400
Speaker 1: he'll raise Britain's defense spending to a promise two and

37
00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,360
Speaker 1: a half percent of GDP. Paul Johnson from the Institute

38
00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:16,840
Speaker 1: for Fiscal Studies says doing that will have a major

39
00:02:16,919 --> 00:02:21,120
Speaker 1: impact on the UK's finances. For decades, we funded a

40
00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,800
Speaker 1: growing welfare state by continually cutting defense spending. We start

41
00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,920
Speaker 1: really increasing it fast. That's going to put huge pressure

42
00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:32,080
Speaker 1: on everything else. Paul Johnson's comments commas. The Trump administration

43
00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:35,360
Speaker 1: has insisted that NATO's European members should spend five percent

44
00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:38,720
Speaker 1: of GDP on defense, far exceeding the three point four

45
00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,359
Speaker 1: percent that his own country spends well.

46
00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,880
Speaker 2: The US move to pull back from providing European security

47
00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,280
Speaker 2: guarantees comes as Donald Trump said that he is open

48
00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:51,839
Speaker 2: to allowing Europe to buy US made weapons to give

49
00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,880
Speaker 2: to Ukraine. European officials are working on a major new

50
00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:58,320
Speaker 2: package to increase defense spending and support for Ukraine, but

51
00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,440
Speaker 2: the plans won't be announced until after the German election

52
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:05,359
Speaker 2: this coming weekend. Ahead of the vote, German charleser Olave

53
00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,640
Speaker 2: Schultz spoke to Bloomberg about Western support for Kiev.

54
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:12,320
Speaker 4: I spoke to President Trump very early about how to

55
00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:17,200
Speaker 4: support Ukraine. My plea is that there should be first

56
00:03:17,200 --> 00:03:20,280
Speaker 4: the message to put in that Europe and the United

57
00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,120
Speaker 4: States will continue with their support to Ukraine because he

58
00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:28,799
Speaker 4: has to understand that he cannot hope that we stop

59
00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:29,919
Speaker 4: our support.

60
00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:34,600
Speaker 2: Olave Schultz speaking to Bloomberg Stephanie Flanders there as trade

61
00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,560
Speaker 2: has began, pricing in the potential for higher defense costs,

62
00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:42,360
Speaker 2: dampening the outlook for the region's sovereign bonds. Should the

63
00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,000
Speaker 2: debate on using common debt to fund their efforts intensify,

64
00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:51,720
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Economics estimates that upgrading defense and protecting Ukraine may

65
00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:55,880
Speaker 2: cost Europe's major powers and additional three point one trillion

66
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:57,680
Speaker 2: dollars over ten years.

67
00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:00,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg has learned the about US An stration has told

68
00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,200
Speaker 1: European officials that it wants to secure usies far in

69
00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:08,560
Speaker 1: Ukraine by Easter. After one top US advisor suggested peace

70
00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:12,080
Speaker 1: talks could happen without Zelensky, Donald Trump now says the

71
00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,080
Speaker 1: Ukrainian president will be involved. Here's what he told reporters

72
00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:18,360
Speaker 1: as he got ready to board Air Force one on Sunday.

73
00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,360
Speaker 3: We're trying to get a piece with Russia Ukraine, and

74
00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:22,160
Speaker 3: we're working.

75
00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:23,360
Speaker 1: Very hard on it.

76
00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,200
Speaker 3: It's a war that should have never started.

77
00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,599
Speaker 1: Him excellent me to be involved in these conversations. What

78
00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,360
Speaker 1: will you Jajami I do he will be involved, yes.

79
00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:37,120
Speaker 1: Trump says he's planning to see Putin as soon as

80
00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:41,560
Speaker 1: this month, while US representatives are traveling to Saudi Arabia

81
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:42,840
Speaker 1: for peace talks with Russia.

82
00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:47,480
Speaker 2: This week now, President Shijinping met major Chinese tech founders

83
00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:50,560
Speaker 2: in a sign of support for the sector after years

84
00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:54,480
Speaker 2: of turmoil. E commace Icon, jack MA, and deep Seek foundered.

85
00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:58,799
Speaker 2: Yang wen Feng we're among those meeting. China's leader global

86
00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,400
Speaker 2: ex investment strash is Billy Lyung, says that it is

87
00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,520
Speaker 2: a rare but not unprecedented endorsement.

88
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,520
Speaker 5: Obviously, this is very symbolic in terms of she calling

89
00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,200
Speaker 5: a medium arranging a symposium meeting. But if you look

90
00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:13,839
Speaker 5: back into historically, you know, we've seen this happen probably

91
00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,880
Speaker 5: once during twenty eighteen. In the twenty eighteen when she

92
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:21,560
Speaker 5: very similarly caught a meeting between private enterprises. During that time,

93
00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,000
Speaker 5: the outcome of that was very much more on the

94
00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,040
Speaker 5: narrative side. You know, there was recognition, there was acknowledgment,

95
00:05:27,120 --> 00:05:29,880
Speaker 5: but there was very little to do with actual guess policies.

96
00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:34,640
Speaker 2: Lyong ads Deep Seak has changed the narrative around investing

97
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,520
Speaker 2: in China's tech stocks. Optimism over AI's potential has sparked

98
00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,680
Speaker 2: a blistering rally over the past month, turning the HAN

99
00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:47,200
Speaker 2: saying China Enterprises Index into the world's best performer. Strategists

100
00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:49,840
Speaker 2: at Gold and Sachs have also raised targets for the

101
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:54,640
Speaker 2: MSCI China and CSI three hundred, expecting double digit gains

102
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:55,160
Speaker 2: from here.

103
00:05:56,520 --> 00:05:59,200
Speaker 1: More than one in five British managers expects they will

104
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,600
Speaker 1: roll back par and to leave parks to pay for

105
00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:06,279
Speaker 1: rising employment costs. A Chartered Management Institute poll found twenty

106
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:10,200
Speaker 1: two percent of managers offering enhanced parental benefits said that

107
00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,960
Speaker 1: it's likely they'll be made less generous. Bloomberg's James Wilcock has.

108
00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,479
Speaker 6: More companies are staring at a twenty six billion pound

109
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:21,120
Speaker 6: hike in payroll taxes coming this spring that leaves bosses

110
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,440
Speaker 6: looking for creative ways to save money without firing staff,

111
00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:28,240
Speaker 6: some eyeing their parental leave policies that go beyond what's

112
00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:32,080
Speaker 6: required in law. The CMI survey showed small and medium

113
00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,919
Speaker 6: sized businesses are almost twice as likely as large employers

114
00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,200
Speaker 6: to review their parental benefits, but it's a choice that

115
00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,040
Speaker 6: may end up backfiring in the long run. One employment

116
00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:46,760
Speaker 6: lawyer says better parental policies help firms retain female employees,

117
00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,040
Speaker 6: particularly in senior positions.

118
00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,920
Speaker 1: In London. James Wilcock, Bloomberg Radio, and those are your

119
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,039
Speaker 1: top stories on the markets. Equities in Hong Kong and

120
00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,560
Speaker 1: China trading chopperly this morning. The Hangsang Index down by

121
00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:02,600
Speaker 1: fourteen of one percent, thankstng Tech Index down by one

122
00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,359
Speaker 1: point one percent after gains earlier, partly supported by reports

123
00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,120
Speaker 1: the cheating paying met with private sector leaders, including Ali

124
00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,200
Speaker 1: Baba's Jack Matt ten Cent shares at one stage jumping

125
00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,960
Speaker 1: as much as seven percent, hitting a three year high

126
00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 1: after news that it's app as testing deep seek AI.

127
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: On currency markets, the Japanese ends half of a percent

128
00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:25,200
Speaker 1: stronger against the dollar at one fifty one fifty two,

129
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:27,600
Speaker 1: the Member Dollar Spot index a touch weaker. The euro

130
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,720
Speaker 1: is flat ahead of that meeting of European leaders in

131
00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,400
Speaker 1: Paris at one oh four to ninety against the dollar

132
00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,679
Speaker 1: as well. President's Day in the US, So no cash

133
00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:41,320
Speaker 1: treasuries trading today and no stocks trading either now.

134
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,040
Speaker 2: In a moment, the latest on how Europe is responding

135
00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,720
Speaker 2: to Donald Trump's policy shift on the war in Ukraine.

136
00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,680
Speaker 2: We're going to try to bring you all the angles

137
00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:53,920
Speaker 2: as those European leaders, key European leaders are meeting in

138
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,440
Speaker 2: Paris today. But then there's another story that caught my

139
00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:00,520
Speaker 2: eye this morning about tech about AI. We talk a

140
00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,760
Speaker 2: lot about it, but AI powered note takers are apparently

141
00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:04,800
Speaker 2: taking over meetings.

142
00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:06,920
Speaker 1: Have you noticed, well, I mean they are everywhere.

143
00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:07,040
Speaker 2: Now.

144
00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:09,880
Speaker 1: I have to say, as my younger colleagu's eyes glaze

145
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,960
Speaker 1: over when I talk about having to actually type out

146
00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,280
Speaker 1: the transcript of an interview that you've done afterwards. I

147
00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:15,920
Speaker 1: think there are lots of good things to be said

148
00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,840
Speaker 1: for note taking ups that allow that process to be

149
00:08:18,920 --> 00:08:22,280
Speaker 1: sped up now. But there is this question then of

150
00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:27,480
Speaker 1: how well an AI can summarize a meeting because there's

151
00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:30,520
Speaker 1: so much of nuance involved, and you know, if somebody

152
00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,880
Speaker 1: makes a sarcastic comment, does that become a key action

153
00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:37,359
Speaker 1: point in the summary from an AI which makes.

154
00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:39,880
Speaker 2: The nuancewers of human interaction? Yes, I mean, look, it

155
00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:43,040
Speaker 2: saves my hand from having to scribble out all the notes,

156
00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:45,400
Speaker 2: but yes, it does raise all of these questions about

157
00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:49,199
Speaker 2: privacy and about security and whether it picks up on

158
00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:52,000
Speaker 2: those non verbal cues. There's a lovely piece by Bloomberg's

159
00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:56,560
Speaker 2: Chris Stockholwalker who writes about, you know, worrying about whether

160
00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,840
Speaker 2: his words are going to be taken out of context

161
00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,920
Speaker 2: and just how much needs to be thought about as

162
00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,760
Speaker 2: you bring in and sometimes actually multiple people are bringing

163
00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:09,000
Speaker 2: in a different AIS note takers to try to summarize

164
00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,760
Speaker 2: meetings and how careful we should be about that.

165
00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting conversation to be had in many meetings to come.

166
00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:17,280
Speaker 1: Let's turn back though to our top story this morning

167
00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:20,120
Speaker 1: in French President Emmanuel Macron holding an emergency meeting with

168
00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:23,720
Speaker 1: several European leaders today to discuss Ukraine and to respond

169
00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:26,240
Speaker 1: to what US officials laid out in stark terms this

170
00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:30,040
Speaker 1: weekend that after almost eighty years of US security guarantees,

171
00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,559
Speaker 1: the Transatlantic Alliance as we know it could be dead.

172
00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:36,199
Speaker 1: Joining us now to discuss Bloomberg's EMEA and THES director

173
00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,240
Speaker 1: Rosalind Matheson, and we're bringing our correspondent in Berlin, Oliver

174
00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:40,840
Speaker 1: Krook in just a moment, who was at the Munich

175
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,240
Speaker 1: Security conference, to you first, raz this is a wake

176
00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,040
Speaker 1: up call for Europe. It has been coming for a

177
00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,880
Speaker 1: long time, but the comments at the Munich Security Conference

178
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,600
Speaker 1: from Jadie Vance and Pete Hagseth have left European leaders

179
00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:57,679
Speaker 1: looking for, I suppose, a completely different relationship with the

180
00:09:57,760 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 1: United States when it comes to security.

181
00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,760
Speaker 7: Well the way, it's kind of surprising that they are

182
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:07,079
Speaker 7: surprised to some extent because the US administration of Donald

183
00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:11,319
Speaker 7: Trump has been telegraphing this even before he took office,

184
00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,520
Speaker 7: but it was just very starkly laid out, and of

185
00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:19,040
Speaker 7: course the location being European soil at Munich, and you

186
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:23,520
Speaker 7: had those speeches, including from dat events from the Defense

187
00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:25,880
Speaker 7: Secretary making it very clear that it's going to be

188
00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:30,080
Speaker 7: a very different environment for the relationship on a variety

189
00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:32,880
Speaker 7: of fronts, of course the economic and trade front, but

190
00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 7: also very much on the security front, and that Europe's

191
00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:38,520
Speaker 7: going to have to really step up and find a

192
00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:42,480
Speaker 7: way finally to really arrange its own defense, that it

193
00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:46,520
Speaker 7: cannot presume that the US will provide that umbrella into

194
00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,200
Speaker 7: the long term, and particularly when it comes to Ukraine,

195
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,280
Speaker 7: that Europe's going to have to at least put some

196
00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:57,439
Speaker 7: of the bill there, particularly around future security of Ukraine.

197
00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,760
Speaker 7: And so we've got this meeting obviously today of leaders

198
00:11:00,840 --> 00:11:03,600
Speaker 7: a select group of European leaders in Paris where they'll

199
00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,080
Speaker 7: talk about some of these issues. But at this point

200
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,680
Speaker 7: it's really a fundamental reset of the relationship because it

201
00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:15,160
Speaker 7: crosses not just economics, investment and business, but also DOO security.

202
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, in terms of defense spending, what do you think

203
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,040
Speaker 2: the discussions are going to look like in Paris today?

204
00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,600
Speaker 2: Peacekeeping troops in Ukraine? The UK has offered to do

205
00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:29,000
Speaker 2: that debate about whether that's even possible. What do you

206
00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:31,480
Speaker 2: think is going to be discussed or emerged from Paris?

207
00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,000
Speaker 7: Well, there will be that conversation around defense spending, and

208
00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:37,320
Speaker 7: it sounds like there will be a plan we understand

209
00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,400
Speaker 7: that will come forward about that, but not until after

210
00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:43,840
Speaker 7: the German election this weekend, the idea being you do

211
00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,480
Speaker 7: not want to plunk that in the middle of the

212
00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,360
Speaker 7: final stages of a German election campaign. But it sounds

213
00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:53,240
Speaker 7: like they're really talking about how they can speed up

214
00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:56,320
Speaker 7: their defense spending collectively. I mean it has sped up,

215
00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:59,480
Speaker 7: of course since the first term of Donald Trump, but

216
00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,880
Speaker 7: what more can they do and also how can they

217
00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:08,160
Speaker 7: then fund troops potentially for Ukraine. And that includes the

218
00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:11,480
Speaker 7: UK Prime Minister suggesting that he'd be willing to send

219
00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,920
Speaker 7: British troops to Ukraine under certain circumstances, I mean obviously

220
00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,160
Speaker 7: away from any ceasefire line, for example, and would other

221
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,360
Speaker 7: European leaders be prepared to do the same. And it's

222
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,840
Speaker 7: all about sending a message to Donald Trump that they're

223
00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,960
Speaker 7: hearing what he's saying and they're going to respond to

224
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 7: it and step up and give him something in return.

225
00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:35,240
Speaker 7: And that's probably also very much all about two things.

226
00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,160
Speaker 7: One is making sure Europe has a seat at the

227
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:41,240
Speaker 7: table in the conversation and be slowing this conversation about

228
00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,200
Speaker 7: a ceasefire down. The concern is that Donald Trump is

229
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,679
Speaker 7: rushing towards something he wants it done by Easter. And

230
00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,440
Speaker 7: then if you do that very quickly, what does that

231
00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:49,880
Speaker 7: look like.

232
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,920
Speaker 1: Well, let's bring in our correspondent to the Berlin, Oliver Krok,

233
00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:55,720
Speaker 1: who was at them in Oxecurity conference over the weekend

234
00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,440
Speaker 1: over we're just hearing there from Roslamarthas and about how

235
00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,559
Speaker 1: you're leaders were caught by surprise but perhaps shouldn't have

236
00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:05,920
Speaker 1: been by some of the positions being taken by the US.

237
00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:08,880
Speaker 1: What was your impression from the conversations that you had

238
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:12,400
Speaker 1: at the mean of security conference about where European leaders

239
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:15,120
Speaker 1: might be able to find common ground on this looking

240
00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,040
Speaker 1: ahead to that meeting today in Paris.

241
00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:19,240
Speaker 8: Well, listen, I think that this has been sort of

242
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,280
Speaker 8: the I think frustration for many people looking at basically

243
00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,920
Speaker 8: the Trump administration and sort of the European reactions that

244
00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,640
Speaker 8: everyone in Europe has felt like they're in reaction mode.

245
00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,080
Speaker 8: They've been reaction modes since November and they sort of

246
00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,000
Speaker 8: remained that way. And again what we kept hearing again

247
00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:36,960
Speaker 8: this weekend, but we've heard basically as a permanent refrainsin November,

248
00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:39,360
Speaker 8: is that Donald Trump is a wake up call for Europe.

249
00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,000
Speaker 8: The question is what are the Europeans going to wake

250
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,000
Speaker 8: up to? What are they going to actually start doing?

251
00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:47,520
Speaker 8: You know, when you start talking about things like troop deployment,

252
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 8: security guarantees, I mean, everyone is very reticent to go

253
00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,600
Speaker 8: into any of these details. Obviously, Donald Trump is in

254
00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:57,000
Speaker 8: a sort of mode of demanding action and demanding things

255
00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,280
Speaker 8: that are concrete from the Europeans, and that is going

256
00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,760
Speaker 8: to is going there's going to be forced to do so.

257
00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,160
Speaker 8: I mean I've spoken to some senior lawmakers in Germany

258
00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:08,079
Speaker 8: about this idea of potentially could the Germans put sort

259
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 8: of troops in Ukraine in the future as sort of

260
00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,079
Speaker 8: peacekeeping operation. And this person I spoke to was a

261
00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:15,280
Speaker 8: very sort of hawkish voice, one who is much more

262
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:18,680
Speaker 8: encouraging of supporting of Ukraine sending those long range missiles,

263
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,080
Speaker 8: which the German government never did in the end, But

264
00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 8: even he was saying that basically it may be just

265
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 8: a shade too far to think about sending German troops

266
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,960
Speaker 8: into the situation in Ukraine. Potentially, you know, there's a

267
00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,000
Speaker 8: non zero chenset if someone day there are troops firing,

268
00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:35,760
Speaker 8: Russian troops firing on German troops, would they fire back.

269
00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:37,960
Speaker 8: This is something that is very very rich for them

270
00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,640
Speaker 8: to consider, you know, in any sort of realistic way,

271
00:14:40,640 --> 00:14:43,760
Speaker 8: particularly at a time when in domestic politics in Germany,

272
00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,560
Speaker 8: for example, you have a party that's number two that

273
00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:48,840
Speaker 8: really wants to have sort of less and less to

274
00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:50,880
Speaker 8: do with the world and is a bit more supportive

275
00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:52,160
Speaker 8: of Russia. So again, this is going to be a

276
00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,160
Speaker 8: very difficult conversation. Would be very interesting to see what

277
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:58,960
Speaker 8: these leaders can come up with concretely in Paris.

278
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and in terms of what emerged from the discussions

279
00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,120
Speaker 2: between the leaders, we mentioned that there was a TV

280
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,120
Speaker 2: debate overnight. The election is coming up at the weekend.

281
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:13,640
Speaker 2: I mean JD Vance did not meet with Olaf Schultz.

282
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 2: He saw the AFDs Alice Vital instead. What did you

283
00:15:17,480 --> 00:15:21,000
Speaker 2: make of the four way party leader debate last night?

284
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:23,640
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, listen. I think it's very sort of

285
00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:26,320
Speaker 8: interesting to see what happened with Jdvent in that speech.

286
00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:28,160
Speaker 8: I would just to linger on that just for a moment,

287
00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,200
Speaker 8: because everybody was going into the Munich Security Conference really

288
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,520
Speaker 8: expecting a sort of speech about the sort of foreign policy,

289
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 8: about what the United States was supposed to be sort

290
00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 8: of doing with Ukraine and basically what their vision of

291
00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,400
Speaker 8: Ukraine was, and basically what you got was a very

292
00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:45,000
Speaker 8: sort of short reference to Ukraine at the very beginning.

293
00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:47,480
Speaker 8: And then when you got instead of basically trying to

294
00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,520
Speaker 8: extract sort of economic benefit out of the EU, which

295
00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,320
Speaker 8: has sort of been what Donald Trump has been trying

296
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:54,560
Speaker 8: to do ever since he was elected and kind of

297
00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:56,760
Speaker 8: been talking about with tariffs and these sorts of things,

298
00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 8: it was really about sort of exporting a domestic political ideology,

299
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,480
Speaker 8: a sort of political manifesto into Europe and really sort

300
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,480
Speaker 8: of getting involved in a way that again is not

301
00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,360
Speaker 8: sort of common in sort of political practice between the

302
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,720
Speaker 8: United States and Europe in the domestic affairs of Europe.

303
00:16:12,720 --> 00:16:14,960
Speaker 8: And as you mentioned, Jade Vance meant with alas Vital

304
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:18,800
Speaker 8: he did not meet with Olaf Schultz and basically advising

305
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 8: effectively the next German chancellor to basically enter into coalition

306
00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 8: with the AfD right saying that basically there's no it's

307
00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,480
Speaker 8: inappropriate and there's no room for firewalls in politics anymore.

308
00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:31,920
Speaker 8: So now take that into sort of overlay to the

309
00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,480
Speaker 8: German sort of election campaign that is now in its

310
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 8: absolute final stretch over the next couple of days. I mean, listen,

311
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 8: this could really cut you know, either way, this sort

312
00:16:39,720 --> 00:16:42,560
Speaker 8: of gives again more and more legitimacy to the AfD

313
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:44,600
Speaker 8: in the mainstream. But on the other hand, no one

314
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 8: really likes to be told how to vote and how

315
00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,239
Speaker 8: to behave in their own country by other leaders.

316
00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,120
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

317
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,240
Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

318
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning on Apple,

319
00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:01,520
Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

320
00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,600
Speaker 1: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

321
00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

322
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:10,119
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station, is also available on your

323
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:14,879
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

324
00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:16,359
Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and.

325
00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:19,000
Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Carol. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

326
00:17:19,040 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day right here

327
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:25,240
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe