WEBVTT - Early Look at Week 6 NFL Lines (Ep. 114) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:16.880 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast. I'm 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:19.440 your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at Dan 0:00:19.520 --> 0:00:21.880 Harris eighty. It is time for an early look at 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:24.280 the week six NFL lines, and to break it all 0:00:24.320 --> 0:00:27.240 down with me is my friend Mike Randall from the 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:31.560 Action Network. You can find him on Twitter at Randall Rant. Mike, 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:32.800 thanks for coming on the show. 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:35.440 How you doing, Dan, I'm doing great. It's an honor. 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:39.840 Week six here, refreshed and replenished from an exciting Week five, 0:00:40.120 --> 0:00:42.200 we can hit week six and go over all the games. 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:44.200 First of all, is the second time we've been talking 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:46.080 that you've said that it's an honor to be on 0:00:46.120 --> 0:00:48.800 this podcast, So I feel like you have definitely put 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:49.760 this up way too. 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:50.760 High on like a pedestal. 0:00:50.840 --> 0:00:54.960 Right, all right for me, I'm fine to be here. 0:00:55.000 --> 0:00:56.680 It's nice to have you whatever. I don't really care 0:00:56.680 --> 0:00:58.240 that much, but anyway, let's get into it. 0:00:58.280 --> 0:00:58.560 We got it. 0:00:58.560 --> 0:00:59.760 You're right. It was a crazy week. 0:01:00.080 --> 0:01:04.000 Watching last night was just nuts, absolutely nuts. You know, 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.039 we do a lot of fantasy, obviously, and it was 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:09.320 just insane, completely decided fantasy. I was thankfully on the 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.000 Colts plus seven and a half did you climb to 0:01:12.040 --> 0:01:13.920 it at the very end, so thankfully, but it was 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:15.679 getting a little nerve wracking there. 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:17.160 Anyway, let's get into it. 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:19.240 Before we do, let me give you the latest software 0:01:19.280 --> 0:01:23.960 of course, from bet MGM. New customers can win one 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:26.640 hundred dollars in free bets that they bet five dollars 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:30.120 for any NFL team to score a touchdown if either 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:32.560 team I'm sorry scores a touchdown on any NFL game 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:33.120 that you bet on. 0:01:33.160 --> 0:01:36.080 So again, you bet five dollars any team, any game you. 0:01:36.040 --> 0:01:38.319 Want, you win one hundred dollars in free bets if 0:01:38.360 --> 0:01:40.520 that team you bet on scores a touchdown. 0:01:40.600 --> 0:01:41.839 Use the code Juice one hundred. 0:01:41.880 --> 0:01:46.000 That is our other podcast, the Daily Juice Gray podcast, 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:48.200 hosted by Matt Parrel. You should listen to it every 0:01:48.240 --> 0:01:50.360 single day you wake up. I mean Matt has not 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:52.600 missed a day in well over a year. He did 0:01:52.600 --> 0:01:55.040 it from the hospital, as he did it from Yeah, 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:57.960 you let amazing the dedication. I by the way, we 0:01:58.000 --> 0:01:59.680 are doing this on the Tuesday instead of a Monday. 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:01.760 I happen to be visiting my mother, which I could 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:04.040 have recorded there I opted not to. That's my low 0:02:04.120 --> 0:02:06.240 level of dedication. That's why I listened to the Jews. 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:09.280 Definitely Deally juice. Juice one hundred is of Codett bet MGM. 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:12.000 All right, Mike, we walked through it a little bit. 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:13.639 Are you ready to get going? Walk through some of 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:14.040 the lines. 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:16.080 Let's go through them. We'll run through them. Dan, if 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:17.799 you want, walk over whatever you want. 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:20.520 I should have you on this podcast every week. Let's 0:02:20.560 --> 0:02:20.880 go with. 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:23.840 The Bucks are visiting the Eagles on Thursday Night Football. 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.920 The Bucks are currently laying seven. The total is fifty 0:02:26.960 --> 0:02:29.440 two and a half. We obviously have some unknowns a 0:02:29.480 --> 0:02:32.680 little bit here. You've got maybe Rob Gronkowski plays. Hopefully 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:35.520 we'll know that soon. Brady has the big rap apparently 0:02:35.520 --> 0:02:37.440 on his thumb. Chances are he's going to play. What 0:02:37.480 --> 0:02:39.760 do you think here with the point spread of seven. 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:42.919 Well, I'm going towards the Bucks. Do you know Dan 0:02:43.160 --> 0:02:46.560 that the Buccaneers have allowed to opposing quarterbacks a grand 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:51.480 total of thirteen yards this year on nine attempts. On 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.080 the other side, we have Jalen Hurts here second among 0:02:54.080 --> 0:02:57.000 all quarterbacks and rushing yards. Something has to give. I'm 0:02:57.000 --> 0:02:59.600 gonna go with the Bucks defense. The Bucks play at 0:02:59.600 --> 0:03:03.320 a real fast paced Philadelphia has been tough. They battled. 0:03:03.360 --> 0:03:05.880 They had the great comeback win against Carolina this week. 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:09.240 But Tampa Bay has just been clicking. Has so many weapons, 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:13.200 Antonio Brown, Tom Brady, the offense is so efficient. I 0:03:13.440 --> 0:03:15.600 just don't see a way that Philadelphia is gonna be 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:19.000 able to generate enough points if they're not dominant on 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:21.519 the ground, and they're not going to be. Jalen Hurts 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:23.679 has been oppressive for fantasy owners. They love him because 0:03:23.680 --> 0:03:25.160 he finds a way to get to those twenty to 0:03:25.200 --> 0:03:28.720 twenty five fantasy points, but I don't trust their passing attack. 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:31.560 The Eagles always play hard, have a strong defense. It 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:33.960 looks like they'll be without Dallas Goddard this week, also, 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:37.160 who was just placed on the COVID list. Bucks are 0:03:37.160 --> 0:03:39.840 also four and one to the over this year in 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:43.480 their games. This game is hovering in that low fifty range. 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:46.360 I think it's gonna go well. Over games in prime 0:03:46.440 --> 0:03:48.880 time were really hot going to the over, then they 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:51.880 slowed down in Week four. I think this one picks 0:03:51.960 --> 0:03:54.840 up again. The Eagles always can score points late. I'm 0:03:54.840 --> 0:03:56.800 gonna take the Bucks and lay the points. I wish 0:03:56.800 --> 0:03:58.120 it was at six and a half, which it was 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:00.440 at earlier in the week, but I'll lay this here 0:04:00.440 --> 0:04:01.600 for the Buccaneers on the road. 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:03.600 It is oddly enough, it is at six and a 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:06.600 half at my book, thankfully at DraftKings, so I will 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:07.960 be able to take it. But I am in agreement 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:10.360 with you all the way around. And again, people have 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:12.400 been listening to this podcast now, I basically back the 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:15.560 Eagles every week we have our three best bets. I 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:18.799 took the Eagles this week against the Panthers. 0:04:19.240 --> 0:04:20.279 I like, sort of. 0:04:20.360 --> 0:04:22.680 I think there's so much more under the surface with 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.000 the Eagles, but not in this game right now. I 0:04:25.040 --> 0:04:27.200 really don't see how it's gonna happen. And again, the total, 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:28.920 you're right, do you think it's gonna move by the way, 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:30.760 I mean, I assume it's probably seven. I feel like 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.840 it's probably where other than DraftKings. Seven is probably where 0:04:33.880 --> 0:04:35.279 it lands in the end. I mean, we all have 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:36.640 a couple of days at this point, but. 0:04:36.720 --> 0:04:38.400 I think it's seven. You don't want to give that 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:40.320 seven and a half. And we saw last night with 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.839 the Colts and the Ravens how important that seven is. 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:45.480 That's the place it's gonna end up. I just see 0:04:45.480 --> 0:04:47.800 this game being very similar when the Chiefs played at 0:04:47.839 --> 0:04:51.279 Philadelphia and it just gets away from them late couple 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.120 turnovers there. They will battle with Hurts, but I don't 0:04:54.160 --> 0:04:57.520 see a situation Dan where Hurts and the Eagles offense 0:04:57.560 --> 0:04:59.599 can dominate on the ground. And if that's the case, 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:01.160 this game could get blown wide open. 0:05:01.400 --> 0:05:03.360 I mean, they're not even gonna Nobody even attempts at 0:05:03.360 --> 0:05:05.560 this point to run the ball whatsoever. It's gonna be 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.000 interesting to see what Hurt says. But it was a 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.520 great sat that you gave there about quarterbacks rushing. Let's 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:12.360 go to the Dolphins visiting the Jaguars. Dolphins are laying 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:13.960 three and a half right now in the total is 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:14.560 forty seven. 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:15.400 What do you think. 0:05:15.960 --> 0:05:18.960 Favorites in the London game over in the pond nineteen 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:22.480 to ten against the spread. That's sixty six percent. Jaguars 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:24.520 have their bye week coming up, and there's a lot 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:27.240 of reports that Urban Meyer will be fired, so you 0:05:27.240 --> 0:05:30.120 can argue he's a dead man walking here. Miles Gaskin 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:33.120 came alive for the Dolphins. He was the PPR RB 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:36.599 two and the Jags are just dreadful on defense, thirty 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:40.640 first overall, only behind the Chiefs. I trust Brian Flores 0:05:40.720 --> 0:05:43.919 more getting his team ready. There's not gonna be Will Fuller. 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:47.080 There's injuries on both sides. No DJ chalk for Jacksonville. 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.400 I just think that the Dolphins right now are the 0:05:49.400 --> 0:05:52.479 more cohesive unit. I think they're better coached, and I 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:54.599 think they find a way here with a little more 0:05:54.640 --> 0:05:57.039 talent than a Jaguars team that is just going in 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:59.680 the wrong direction. I do like the under here, though, 0:05:59.720 --> 0:06:02.280 I have to tell you the Jags in Miami, they're 0:06:02.320 --> 0:06:04.520 both very slow in their pace. I know that the 0:06:04.600 --> 0:06:06.559 over got there last week in sort of an odd 0:06:06.600 --> 0:06:08.880 situation at the end of the game. But I like 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.520 the Dolphins to win this game to cover the number, 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:13.800 and I do like the under here. Over in the 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.760 pond with this game between the Jags and Dolphins. 0:06:16.560 --> 0:06:17.840 This is where you think it ends up, by the 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:18.359 way three and a. 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.279 Half, Yeah, I think so. They're gonna those key numbers 0:06:21.279 --> 0:06:23.040 are three and seven, so they're gonna want to keep 0:06:23.040 --> 0:06:25.520 it there to try to attract the fifty to fifty action. 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:27.800 But I just don't think it's gonna matter because I 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:30.400 think the Dolphins here finally have found a running back 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:33.159 that they need, Jacoby Brissett, is very solid. Trevor Lawrence 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:35.560 has had some turnover problems. They still should have beat 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:37.920 the Cardinals in that game except for that ridiculous flea 0:06:37.960 --> 0:06:40.640 flicker at home that was a pick six. So I'm 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:43.240 just trusting the better team. Other Jaguars going to break 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:46.120 through here for a lame duck coach over in the 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:48.160 pond against the Dolphins, I don't see it. 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:49.120 Hey, can I ask? 0:06:49.200 --> 0:06:52.279 Because I think and again I'm being as totally honest 0:06:52.320 --> 0:06:54.279 with our audience as possible as I said. I was 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:56.520 visiting family in New York. I've been keeping up with 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:58.400 the news. I've still been working, but I've been driving 0:06:58.480 --> 0:07:01.920 pretty much all day. I there seems to be some 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:05.960 kind of remote optimism that Tua could potentially play in 0:07:06.000 --> 0:07:06.320 this game. 0:07:06.440 --> 0:07:08.240 Or am I totally off on that? Is it just 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:09.400 definitely preset in. 0:07:09.360 --> 0:07:12.520 This I'm hearing that I think it's gonna be Brissett. 0:07:12.600 --> 0:07:15.160 If it was Tua, I would feel even stronger about 0:07:15.200 --> 0:07:17.480 this because I think he comes back and he gives them, 0:07:17.560 --> 0:07:20.560 you know, he still has that talent. People are down 0:07:20.560 --> 0:07:23.080 on two are very polarizing in Miami. If he comes back, 0:07:23.120 --> 0:07:25.920 I like it even more. I'm making this pick based. 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:26.880 On Bressett perfect. 0:07:26.920 --> 0:07:28.560 That's exactly what I thought, by the way, because I 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:30.480 also like it more if Tua comes back, and I 0:07:30.520 --> 0:07:32.760 agree like I was very high, again mostly from a 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.080 fantasy perspective, but on what we were going to see from 0:07:35.120 --> 0:07:37.120 two and now they've got injuries. Who who knows a 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:38.680 Parker is going to play, and as you said, they're 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:41.720 already down Will Fuller. I don't think it matters. I 0:07:41.720 --> 0:07:43.480 think they can easily take this game. The Jaguars are 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:45.600 in disarray, and you're right after that bye week, we're 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:47.640 going to see what's coming up. The Vikings now are 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:50.800 visiting the Panthers. The Panthers are laying a point and 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.000 the total is forty six. 0:07:53.120 --> 0:07:54.240 What do you think about this one? 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:57.360 I like the Vikings here. I have had some strange 0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:01.680 attraction to the Minnesota Vikings all year. I trust Mike Zimmer. 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:04.640 I think this defense is going to improve. They should 0:08:04.680 --> 0:08:06.800 have had a couple more wins. Of course, the miskick 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.200 against Arizona. They were gaming at Cincinnati in the opening game. 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:14.120 Both Carolina and Minnesota are great against the pass. The 0:08:14.200 --> 0:08:17.240 Vikings do need Dalvin cookback. I'm hoping he returns here. 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:20.600 Alexander Madison is fine. But I like this Vikings team. 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.240 I think they're gonna get better as the year goes on. Now, 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:26.640 the line opened at three and dropped despite the overwhelming 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:29.080 amount of bets and money are coming in on the Panthers. 0:08:29.360 --> 0:08:32.200 I think the Vikings are very live underdog here. People 0:08:32.240 --> 0:08:33.920 are going to be off them because you can argue 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:37.120 they should have lost against Detroit last week. No problem, 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:39.040 I like the Vikings. I think the Panthers are a 0:08:39.120 --> 0:08:42.439 little overrated right now. Sam Darnold's been fantastic. I don't 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:44.680 think last week is going to repeat itself. But I 0:08:44.720 --> 0:08:46.959 think this is a very close game. I think it's 0:08:46.960 --> 0:08:49.360 a low scoring game and I will take the Vikings 0:08:49.360 --> 0:08:51.480 here to pull the upset straight up against the Panthers. 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:54.040 Yeah, I think that's right. Again. 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:56.959 I actually thought very disappointing with the Vikings because I 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:59.000 mean they were laying I think it might have closed 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:00.679 at ten. It was nine and half when I saw 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:02.920 it early on the week. I thought they were gonna cover. 0:09:02.960 --> 0:09:05.679 I thought they were gonna absolutely blow the doors off 0:09:05.720 --> 0:09:08.040 that game, and they didn't. And they just couldn't put 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:09.960 the lines away. Now admittedly they should, I mean, you 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:11.480 know they fumbled at the end. The fact that they 0:09:11.480 --> 0:09:13.840 won on the last second field go like they also 0:09:14.120 --> 0:09:16.520 fumble the ball away that allowed the Lions obviously to 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:19.800 score and take the lead. But I agree, I've kind 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.760 of look, man, I get that the Panthers start out hot, 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:26.160 their defense played has played better than expected generally, and 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:30.480 it's fairly strong. But realistically, I've seen Sam Donald play 0:09:30.640 --> 0:09:32.960 for years. This does not look like a different version 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:35.000 of Sam Donald right now. So I'm all about fading 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:37.320 the Panthers. I agree with you right now, even on 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:39.719 the road, I would. I do like the Vikings here. 0:09:39.760 --> 0:09:43.360 Bengals are visiting the Lions. The Bengals are laying three 0:09:43.360 --> 0:09:46.199 and a half. The total is forty seven and a half. 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:46.800 What do you think? 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:50.360 You know, the Lions have played very tough and if 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:53.240 you look at the stats, they don't look that great 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:57.480 with DVOA. But I like the Lions at home here 0:09:57.520 --> 0:09:59.560 getting that number. That is a key number you're going 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:01.520 to give to me. The Bengals are going on the road. 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:04.320 They fought against that Packers team. The Lions should have 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:06.760 won this game. They are still fighting for Dan Campbell. 0:10:06.960 --> 0:10:10.440 DeAndre Swift has been absolutely fantastic and the Bengals get 0:10:10.520 --> 0:10:14.240 gashed by opposing pass catching running back second most targets, 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:17.400 third most receptions. I think this is a possible win 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:20.480 for the Lions at home. I think they're gonna get 0:10:20.520 --> 0:10:23.240 off the schneid here and find a way to beat 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:25.600 a Bengals team that still has troubles Dan on that 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:29.920 offensive line, Dan Campbell gets that defense fighting Jared Goff. 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:33.240 Hopefully Hockinson is able to play and can be effective. 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:35.600 I like the Lions here. That's a lot of points 0:10:35.640 --> 0:10:37.560 to be laying with a Bengals team on the road. 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:40.280 They have played well, the defense has played well, so again, 0:10:40.320 --> 0:10:42.319 I like the under here, but I'm not at the 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:44.520 point where I'm laying points with the Bengals on the 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.960 road yet, not against the team that will respond positively 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:51.320 to that Dan Campbell press conference after the loss last week. 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:53.640 This strikes me as a game where the public is 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:56.160 going to be more on the Bengals and the sharp 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:57.840 betterers are going to be more on the Lions, right 0:10:57.880 --> 0:11:00.320 because as long as you are getting that hook, there's 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:01.720 going to be value with that on lines at home. 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:04.120 Who again, as you mentioned, they play their butts off 0:11:04.120 --> 0:11:06.199 all right. They may not have the talent right now. 0:11:06.200 --> 0:11:09.240 Their offensive line has been decimated another injury a wide 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:12.200 receiver right now with quint Stivas and the collar bone, 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:14.440 but they have enough. 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:16.600 Sort of wherewithal I think to keep this game close. 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:18.840 So if you are getting overfield goal out of curiosity, 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.840 do you think, because I'm assuming right now, that when 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:23.440 you're going to count the number of bets that come in, 0:11:23.480 --> 0:11:24.920 it's going to be heavily on the Bengals. When you're 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:26.560 gonna count the money, it's going to be closer to 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:28.800 fifty to fifty, maybe even lean the Lions. Do you 0:11:28.800 --> 0:11:30.559 think the Lion stays at above the field goal? Do 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:33.280 you think there's any possibility of the books putting it down, 0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:34.880 in which case it's better to grab it now. 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:37.560 Yeah, the bets are probably about two to one to 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:39.520 the Bengals right now, but the Lions are getting the 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.400 majority of the money. Of course, I love those situations 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.199 where the majority of bets are going one way and 0:11:45.240 --> 0:11:47.960 the line moves in the favor of those people that 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:49.800 are betting, because it sort of gives you an idea, 0:11:49.800 --> 0:11:51.720 if Vegas has an idea how this is going to go. 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:54.520 But the Lions three and two against the spread despite 0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:56.440 not having a win and two and zero against the 0:11:56.480 --> 0:11:58.600 spread at home. Those bets are going to come in 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:00.640 on the Bengals. But I like the underdo here grabbing 0:12:00.640 --> 0:12:01.040 the points. 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:01.560 Love it. 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:04.400 Texans are visiting the Coults. Killer for the Colt I 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.200 feel so bad right the Cults. The Cults are laying 0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:09.640 nine and a half here at home against the Texans. 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:11.480 Total is low forty two and a half. What do 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:11.800 you think? 0:12:12.040 --> 0:12:14.080 Yeah, I like the Colts. The Cults are gonna make 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:16.600 some noise in this division when all is said and done. 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.440 I remember seeing Dan beginning of the year, like ninety 0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.280 five percent of the bets in that AFC South were 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:24.880 going on the Titans. It was almost like a FATA 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.360 comp play that the Titans are going to win the division. 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.040 I still think the Cults are going to have something 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.199 to say about it. That was a tough, tough loss 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:34.800 last night. Yeah, they found some things. Jonathan Taylor's over 0:12:34.920 --> 0:12:37.160 under proper receiving yards is twelve and a half. He 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:39.360 goes right away, goes seventy three yards right to start 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:39.680 the game. 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:40.080 I love it. 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:42.560 Yeah, Yeah, they've been Michael Pittman should do some things. 0:12:42.600 --> 0:12:44.560 And I also believe in something I call the law 0:12:44.600 --> 0:12:47.920 of efforts. So the Texans really came out against the Patriots. 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.320 They gave it there all. They almost had that game won. 0:12:50.600 --> 0:12:52.160 Now they have to go on the road against the 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:54.480 division rival that's going to be angry, that has not 0:12:54.600 --> 0:12:56.120 won a lot of games to start the year, that's 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.080 having a disappointing season. This one reeks to me to 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.360 be a blowout. I understand Davis Mills played well. I 0:13:02.400 --> 0:13:05.040 think they can scheme something for Brandon Cooks. This is 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.760 a cult win, I think comfortably by double digits. I 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:09.360 know I have to lay a lot of points, but 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:11.160 I'm gonna do that here With Indianapolis. 0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:13.520 This is interesting to me, Mike, because of the fact 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:16.079 that I think there's probably a line of thought out 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:18.840 there that just said the Colts not only are they 0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:20.240 going to be on a short week, of course, but 0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:23.240 they just got their guts ripped out in like the 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:26.400 most painful way. Pageant you might be thinking they might mail. 0:13:26.520 --> 0:13:28.280 I mean, it's one in four at this point. The 0:13:28.280 --> 0:13:30.600 fact that you're talking about the division is fantastic actually 0:13:30.640 --> 0:13:34.959 just for discussion points. But you think that despite that, 0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:37.120 despite the short week, they are gonna come out here 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.200 and make a statement in conjunction with the fact that 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:41.640 the Texans probably poured their heart and soul into that 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:43.319 game against the Patriots and maybe a due for a 0:13:43.360 --> 0:13:44.160 little bit of a letdown. 0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:46.719 Dan, I've seen it before. I think Frank Reich is 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.480 a solid coach. If this was a situation like Jacksonville 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:52.440 with Urban Meyer, no way. But I think Frank Reich 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:54.679 is a good coach. They come home, He's going to 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:56.760 have this team ready. They're not going to mail it in, 0:13:57.040 --> 0:14:00.400 and they've started to unleash Jonathan Taylor. Paris Cambo was 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:03.440 involved as well. Moley Cox at a couple of receptions, 0:14:03.760 --> 0:14:06.120 I think this is a surprise. I know most people 0:14:06.160 --> 0:14:08.120 will grab the points. To me, I was a little 0:14:08.160 --> 0:14:10.640 surprised that it was high, but then I realized, I 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.240 like the Colts. I feel like they're almost tempting you 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.120 to take the Texans. Yeah, Texans almost beat the Patriots, 0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:18.440 so they can certainly cover ten. I'm gonna go the 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:21.120 other way. It reminds me of the Washington Buffalo game 0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:23.480 from a couple weeks ago, when everyone was wondering what's 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:25.760 wrong with Josh Allen. That line was nine and a 0:14:25.840 --> 0:14:27.960 half and then the Bills ended up blowing him out. 0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:30.120 I think the Colts have a big game here on Sunday. 0:14:30.440 --> 0:14:32.640 Yeah, I love it actually, And I love what you're 0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:34.440 saying because when you do look at the line, you 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:36.440 do say this is a you have to take the 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:39.040 Texans on this line like that, that's what it's telling. 0:14:39.040 --> 0:14:41.280 And whenever you see something like that, you're like, Okay, 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:43.240 I probably don't need to be taking the Texans. And 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:46.880 again with the Colts, even with all of that, there 0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:48.880 are so many positives that you could have taken away. 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:51.520 I mean, Rodrigo Blanket Ship got hurt in the game 0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:53.280 or early on in the game. If he's not hurt, 0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:55.640 they win that game. They suffered a massive amount of 0:14:55.640 --> 0:14:57.880 injuries just as that game went on on defense and 0:14:57.920 --> 0:14:59.920 stuff like that. Maybe they hold the ford of that, 0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:02.920 so it's not as if it was a pure choke 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:05.960 job like they obviously could have. And Carson Wentz like 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:10.080 looked fully healthy. Jonathan Taylor is running extremely well. Now 0:15:10.120 --> 0:15:11.920 I'm starting to buy into this and it's making me 0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:13.560 a little annoyed. So let's get to the next game, 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:16.400 which is the Chiefs visiting Washington. The Chiefs are laying 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.560 seven on the road. The total fifty five and a half, 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:20.040 by the way, just came across the wire as we 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:22.280 were recording this that Clyde Edwards Hilaire. We knew he 0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:24.040 was going to be out, but he's officially been placed 0:15:24.080 --> 0:15:25.720 on injured reserve, so he's gonna be out for at 0:15:25.760 --> 0:15:27.440 least three weeks. God Chiefs saying. 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:30.400 Seven desperate time for Kansas City. Here. They are in 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:33.320 last place in the AFC West. Go figure that after 0:15:33.360 --> 0:15:36.360 five weeks they are one in four against the spread. 0:15:36.440 --> 0:15:40.880 I'm gonna take the Chiefs in a desperation situation. Look, Washington, 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:43.240 I think could be a lot better than their two 0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.960 and three record if they had a different quarterback. Taylor 0:15:46.000 --> 0:15:49.160 Heineke is fine. He's a backup. He's doing what he can, 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:51.640 but he is sort of the issue here. One of 0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:55.080 the most disappointing units, I would say in the NFL 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:59.040 has been Washington's defense. I expected a very big performance 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.320 against the Saints. That it was a limited Saints team, 0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:06.240 Winston conservative game plan, coming off a loss to the Giants, 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.000 I expected them to play well. I was disappointed. They're 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.960 going to give up deep passes and bombs to the Saints. 0:16:13.000 --> 0:16:15.160 What's gonna happen with the Chiefs. They need to win 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.320 in the worst way. I would like it if this 0:16:17.400 --> 0:16:20.240 number can get under that seven, stays under that seven, 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:22.600 because of course it's a great teaser play. You can 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:25.760 argue teasing this with the Bucks. Both of those games down. 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.320 But let's keep in mind here before we bury the 0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:30.760 Chiefs or think that maybe they're a notch below their 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:33.840 slate of opponents that have started this year. They started 0:16:33.880 --> 0:16:36.120 with the Browns, who are legitimate contender, at home, and 0:16:36.160 --> 0:16:39.040 they won that game. They played at the Ravens, another 0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:43.000