WEBVTT - U.S. Unemployment Rescue Left Millions Without Help

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. But among our virus headlines,

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about some of them about the US rising

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<v Speaker 1>to the top of Bloomberg's COVID Resilience ranking for the

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<v Speaker 1>first time. It's really a measure that indicates how all

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<v Speaker 1>countries are handling the pandemic. Your pin nations are also

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<v Speaker 1>moving higher on the list as I opened for the summer.

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<v Speaker 1>But we did report that the UK today saying that

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<v Speaker 1>I had the most new COVID cases since January. So

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<v Speaker 1>they continue to struggle through here with how though the

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<v Speaker 1>health care system continues to grapple with the pandemic. Jennet Elkin,

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<v Speaker 1>she's president CEO at Icon Medical Network. She joins us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Dallas, Texas. Janet, nice to have

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<v Speaker 1>you here on this Monday. How are you. I'm good.

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<v Speaker 1>Nice to be heard, Carol. Well, tell me a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit about what you are seeing when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>health care systems dealing with the pandemics still but getting

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit more back to normal. But also, as

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<v Speaker 1>you know, other medical needs arise. What does that mean

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<v Speaker 1>for demand for healthcare workers? Well, for healthcare workers overall.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously there's a high demand UM we saw for nursing

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<v Speaker 1>during the because the height hopefully it was the height

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<v Speaker 1>of the pandemic. But now we're seeing physicians staffing really

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<v Speaker 1>warring back. Obviously people were not going to the doctor

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<v Speaker 1>unless they had to and really putting off surgeries. But

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<v Speaker 1>what was already high and demand to begin with, just

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<v Speaker 1>really not enough physicians is causing almost really a crisis

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<v Speaker 1>point with especially with more physicians retiring now. Well, and

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<v Speaker 1>that's interesting. Where are we kind of generally speaking, in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States when it comes to UM people wanting

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<v Speaker 1>to be us because we know who we've seen the

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<v Speaker 1>Ebbs and Flowers here. Well, it's not. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>not so much a question of the wanting to become doctors,

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<v Speaker 1>it's that they want a different life, different lifestyle. You know.

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<v Speaker 1>The The A m A recently published something that for

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<v Speaker 1>the first time ever, less than half of all active

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<v Speaker 1>physicians are not working in the smaller private practices. They've moved,

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<v Speaker 1>like everything else, right to the large systems because it's

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<v Speaker 1>just too expensive for someone in private practice. That's making

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<v Speaker 1>a real demand difference, because I think the loyalty is

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<v Speaker 1>different when it's not like just someone in a one

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<v Speaker 1>person shops, so to speak. And so we're finding that

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<v Speaker 1>there's they want more choices and they want a more

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<v Speaker 1>flexible lifestyle like everybody else. Does that mean that they're

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<v Speaker 1>gravitating or continuing to gravitate towards major cities, And what

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<v Speaker 1>does that do for rural communities. I'm just curious about that. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's always been difficult oly for the royal communities. Right

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<v Speaker 1>now I think even more so. Um, we recently did

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<v Speaker 1>something because we staff temporary um positions for physicians in Arizona,

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<v Speaker 1>where there was a very rural town. They opened up

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<v Speaker 1>a new mine, which meant they doubled the population in

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<v Speaker 1>just a few weeks between that and the pandemic. We

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<v Speaker 1>had to get people, but how do you get them there?

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<v Speaker 1>So we did a telehealth project where we had overnight

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalists that use laptops and they brought the laptop from

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<v Speaker 1>patient to patient. But it was a way to get

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<v Speaker 1>them served. Yeah, how's that working? How do you feel like,

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<v Speaker 1>how do doctors? What's the feedback that you're hearing about telehealth?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's not obviously going to take over the industry.

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<v Speaker 1>There's sometimes where you have to lay hands on people,

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<v Speaker 1>right and you have to actually see them. But I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that in some areas where we have such

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<v Speaker 1>critical shortages, like psychiatrists, where I'm sure we've all read

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<v Speaker 1>the articles about the demand now more than ever for

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<v Speaker 1>mental health services, that's an area where you also really

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<v Speaker 1>could use more telehealth, And I think it's a way

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<v Speaker 1>of trying to be effective and efficient and just get

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<v Speaker 1>more people taken care of wherever they live. Yeah. I

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<v Speaker 1>know a fair amount of people just anecdotally that when

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<v Speaker 1>especially came to mental well beings, that for the first time,

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<v Speaker 1>because it was much more accessible in many ways, an

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<v Speaker 1>easier to reach out to a therapist, and I do

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<v Speaker 1>wonder if the tables have really or things have really shifted,

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<v Speaker 1>especially when it comes to psychiatry and mental well being

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of professionals being able to reach a kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a wider swath of our population. I think you're right,

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<v Speaker 1>and they need to because they're just Psychiatry has been

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<v Speaker 1>in demand for a long time, but now we cannot

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<v Speaker 1>keep up with the demand for assignments for our psychiatrists

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<v Speaker 1>because and no one can. It's just that it's just

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<v Speaker 1>that critical. Really, And remember also that some of the

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<v Speaker 1>psychotrates tend to be a little bit of an older age,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're finding this is amazing to me. They escape

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<v Speaker 1>to the survey recently that of all physicians are looking

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<v Speaker 1>to do an early retirement than they used to and

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<v Speaker 1>we can't afford that. Yeah, that's pretty why old. What

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<v Speaker 1>about the medical community that you deal with the doctors?

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<v Speaker 1>Are we seeing vaccinations continue to be handed out? Are

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<v Speaker 1>we reaching those underserved areas as rural areas? Have we

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<v Speaker 1>have we reached out there to to the people who

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<v Speaker 1>really do want the vaccine? Right, well, they are. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the supply is definitely, um, you know, considerably better

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<v Speaker 1>than it was. But I think regardless um, whether it's

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<v Speaker 1>now or post or pre pandemic, they're just or not.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, rural areas are not often considered really desirable

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<v Speaker 1>for physicians to want to set up a practice or

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<v Speaker 1>go and work at a hospital, and so that continues

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<v Speaker 1>to be an issue. Primary care is one grant example

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<v Speaker 1>of that. There's just there aren't enough There aren't enough

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<v Speaker 1>scholarships to be given to be able to get the

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<v Speaker 1>folks there, and that's where really temporary staffing physicians helps dramatically.

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<v Speaker 1>It's interesting. I don't often think about temporary staffing when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to doctors. You just assume that they're all

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<v Speaker 1>full time positions that's at hospitals or healthcare. But it's

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<v Speaker 1>not the way it works. Just got about thirty seconds left. Sure, No,

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<v Speaker 1>there's more demand for temporary and we're seeing it either

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<v Speaker 1>new grads at a regidency, middle career and doctors are

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<v Speaker 1>taking about retiring. What's hey, one of the last question

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<v Speaker 1>just a few seconds. Wages are wages going up for doctors?

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<v Speaker 1>Wages are in certain special castes um, psychiatry, cardiology, surgery. Yep. Alright,

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<v Speaker 1>good to know, hey, Great to check in with you.

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<v Speaker 1>Janet Elkin she's president CEO Icon Medical Network. On the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Dallas, Texas. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stenovich on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. I mentioned this was a most read story.

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<v Speaker 1>It is the most read story on the Bloomberg on

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<v Speaker 1>this Monday. It's about President find targeting two weapons that

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<v Speaker 1>the richest one tenth of one percent used to avoid taxes.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's find out exactly what's going on. Bloomberg New Senior

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<v Speaker 1>Tax reporter Allison vers Sprill is on the phone from Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>d C. Allison, So, what exactly are we talking about?

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<v Speaker 1>So we're talking about the you know, details of the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden proposals that were released late last month. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think at first people kind of needed some time

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<v Speaker 1>to dig through these. But on close inspection, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we learned that the Biden administrations plans would you know,

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<v Speaker 1>essentially dismantled these two popular planning techniques. Um, we have

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<v Speaker 1>one that's called a dynasty trust. Essentially you can set

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<v Speaker 1>these up and they aren't you know, incurring gift to

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<v Speaker 1>state or generation skipping taxes for multiple generations. So the

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<v Speaker 1>Biden plan would actually charge a capital gains tax on

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<v Speaker 1>appreciated assets in these trusts every ninety years. Um. But

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<v Speaker 1>because of the way it's drafted, we could see taxes

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<v Speaker 1>come to us early as December. And then we also

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<v Speaker 1>have language that would charge capital gains taxes. One property

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<v Speaker 1>is transferred into an out of trust and in talking

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<v Speaker 1>with the Treasury official, you know, this is aimed specifically

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<v Speaker 1>at this very common tool, um, if not complicated, tool

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<v Speaker 1>known as the intentionally defective grand toward trust. Uh So

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<v Speaker 1>as people start the great name yes, yeah, it's definitely

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<v Speaker 1>a long name, definitely in a a state planning type of

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<v Speaker 1>type name. Um. But you know, people have started to

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<v Speaker 1>become really concerned about some of this language. We kind

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<v Speaker 1>of missed this earlier. Well, you know, the broad strokes

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<v Speaker 1>of the outline that the President was talking about didn't

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<v Speaker 1>specifically go into how trust were impacted. And then even

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<v Speaker 1>getting into the green book language, some of it's a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit vague. I think that Dyna dynasty trust proportion

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<v Speaker 1>was um, a bit more obvious than some of this

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<v Speaker 1>other language on transfers. And you know, I'm told that

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<v Speaker 1>the second piece of that could affect even beyond um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, these intentionally defective trust that I mentioned, But

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<v Speaker 1>we'll have to see how kind of the legislation is drafted.

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<v Speaker 1>And you know, I R S riggs even further beyond

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<v Speaker 1>that you writing your reporting, Allison. I mean, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>not just a U S thing. We're seeing it around

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<v Speaker 1>the globe where governments are looking countries are looking to

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<v Speaker 1>implement new taxes on capital gains inheritance basically go after

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<v Speaker 1>the wealthy when it comes to paying maybe a greater share,

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<v Speaker 1>a fairer share that some might argue of taxes. No,

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<v Speaker 1>that's absolutely right. You know, we see these in uh Stockholm,

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<v Speaker 1>we see these in other countries. And I think the

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<v Speaker 1>idea here is that obviously COVID nineteen has um you know,

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<v Speaker 1>poked these massive holes in government budgets, and during that time,

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<v Speaker 1>especially in the US, you saw that the rich weren't

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<v Speaker 1>really necessarily impacted like the rest of uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>like the rest of the country. So this has definitely

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<v Speaker 1>been a priority in the US. It's definitely a priority

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<v Speaker 1>of class across the globe. Alright, So what's going on

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<v Speaker 1>with all the financial advisors to the wealthy? You're there

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<v Speaker 1>like wait, wait, wait, wait, what trying to figure it out, like,

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<v Speaker 1>what what's the feedback because it's a great quote in

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<v Speaker 1>your story one lawyer, Um, I guess that advises individuals

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<v Speaker 1>or a tax lawyer. What they're doing is creating a

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<v Speaker 1>whole new tax regime, and it sounds like that's what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on. So you know, if enacted, I think people

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<v Speaker 1>are are starting to say that they would really have

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<v Speaker 1>to reconsider the techniques they're using. Um. I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>this makes plan and go away. There are always going

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<v Speaker 1>to be smart planners that can help people get around

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<v Speaker 1>their taxes. Um. But but these are things that have

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<v Speaker 1>become really popular in recent years. And so you know,

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<v Speaker 1>essentially people question is it worth using the specific tool

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<v Speaker 1>that I've I've had in my arsenal for for the

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<v Speaker 1>last several decades, and you have there's definitely consideration of that.

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<v Speaker 1>Two key words you said, if enacted right the final language,

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<v Speaker 1>as we know, in any kind of bill or legislation,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, ultimately it's up to Congress how they lay

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<v Speaker 1>it out. Definitely, and you know we've already seen so

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<v Speaker 1>we have this infrastructure package that's now moving along that

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<v Speaker 1>would be bipartisan that doesn't have any of these tax increases.

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<v Speaker 1>In it um. There has been discussion that Democrats would

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<v Speaker 1>pursue in the budget sort of their own standalone package

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<v Speaker 1>that would um, you know, make some of these tax

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<v Speaker 1>increases along party line, which has obviously created some controversy.

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<v Speaker 1>But you have to get essentially everyone, you know, every

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<v Speaker 1>Democratic vote in the Senate. UM. There's not a huge

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<v Speaker 1>margin in the House, and so it still remains to

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<v Speaker 1>be seen, you know, if this gets enacted, if this

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<v Speaker 1>gets paired back at all. So we'll just have to

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<v Speaker 1>see how the conversation moves forward. Hey, just fifteen seconds here.

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<v Speaker 1>How quickly does it move forward? Is it before the summer,

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<v Speaker 1>before the end of the year. Just is there a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of a timeline just quickly? I would not anticipate

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<v Speaker 1>if we're talking about reconciliation, that usually start coming together

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<v Speaker 1>around the fall. I mean, you might have some things

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<v Speaker 1>beginning to crystal a lot or discussions are definitely gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be happening this summer, but you have to consider there's

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<v Speaker 1>the recess in August. UM, so I see most of

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<v Speaker 1>the action coming in this fall. All right, good to know,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll put that on our calendars. Alison vers Bill, Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you so much, Senior Tax reporter at Bloomberg News on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Washington, d C. This is Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. Well, and the current is show of

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week Magazine. It's a Bloomberg exclusive looking at

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<v Speaker 1>the US unemployment benefits given out during the pandemic. Who

0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 1>got them? Really? That story from Bloomberg News Senior Trade

0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 1>and Globalization reporter Shawn don and he joins us from

0:12:27.800 --> 0:12:30.439
<v Speaker 1>our one studio in Washington, d C. Along with Business

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:33.440
<v Speaker 1>Week nitor Joel Webber in our Interactive Broker studio in

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:36.120
<v Speaker 1>New York. This is such an important story, especially with

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.040
<v Speaker 1>the debate about why workers aren't coming back Joel, because

0:12:39.040 --> 0:12:41.600
<v Speaker 1>they're getting lots of benefits. This story really looks into

0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:44.800
<v Speaker 1>the numbers and it's been one that I think culturally

0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:47.439
<v Speaker 1>we've been aware of for a while. But what Sean

0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:51.680
<v Speaker 1>donnan and Read picker Um did in this particular issue

0:12:52.320 --> 0:12:55.520
<v Speaker 1>was go even bigger. And the number that they came

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:57.680
<v Speaker 1>out up with was that there were at least nine

0:12:57.720 --> 0:13:01.040
<v Speaker 1>million Americans who were thrown out of work by the pandemic,

0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:05.319
<v Speaker 1>and they didn't receive unemployment benefits UM despite there being

0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:09.760
<v Speaker 1>billions trillions of dollars that flowed into the system. And

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.599
<v Speaker 1>as they were reporting that, obviously that big of a

0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.960
<v Speaker 1>number sticks out to you, and then you start to wonder,

0:13:16.040 --> 0:13:20.000
<v Speaker 1>why so so, Sean bring you in here? Why what happened?

0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.480
<v Speaker 1>What went wrong? Well, I mean the answer is that,

0:13:22.559 --> 0:13:24.959
<v Speaker 1>and we've all learned this in the in the last year,

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.920
<v Speaker 1>is that the unemployment system in the United Stage is

0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:31.320
<v Speaker 1>just in really lousy shape. And it's everything from being

0:13:31.400 --> 0:13:37.560
<v Speaker 1>overloaded with unprecedented amount of claims or UH as I

0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 1>like to think of people reaching out for for help

0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:45.920
<v Speaker 1>UM and UH also old I T systems and just

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:51.920
<v Speaker 1>trying to to process these applications and also getting caught

0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:55.080
<v Speaker 1>up in this question of fraud that's been hanging over

0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.719
<v Speaker 1>the system as well. There there's been a lot of

0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:00.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, when you dig into this system, a lot

0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:03.920
<v Speaker 1>of state officials talk about the high number of fraudulent

0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:05.839
<v Speaker 1>claims that they've seen, but you scratch the surface a

0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:07.400
<v Speaker 1>little bit and you discover there's also a lot of

0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:11.719
<v Speaker 1>innocent people who have been accused of fraud. I look,

0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 1>I was on the phone this morning with someone who

0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:17.800
<v Speaker 1>reached out to me after after seeing our story, and

0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:21.240
<v Speaker 1>who says, you know, they've been waiting six weeks for

0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:26.960
<v Speaker 1>their latest unemployment benefits after having after getting benefits for

0:14:27.040 --> 0:14:30.240
<v Speaker 1>without any problem for most of the last year. Uh.

0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:32.880
<v Speaker 1>And the reason is that the state of Maryland says

0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:36.440
<v Speaker 1>they can't verify uh their identity, even though this person

0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:39.840
<v Speaker 1>has sent all sorts of ideas uh their ways. So

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.360
<v Speaker 1>it's just it's a system that's overloaded. But it's a

0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.560
<v Speaker 1>system that also in a lot of places seems to

0:14:45.680 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 1>be kind of biased towards assuming that someone reaching out

0:14:50.480 --> 0:14:54.880
<v Speaker 1>for help may not always be doing so, uh, you know,

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.240
<v Speaker 1>with the right intentions. What's great about this story by

0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.120
<v Speaker 1>you and read shall one is that, right, we often

0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:03.240
<v Speaker 1>see headlines, we see numbers, but we forget that there

0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:06.200
<v Speaker 1>are people behind those numbers. Take us to either barbed

0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:09.880
<v Speaker 1>story or raised story. You actually get into their details. Yeah. Look,

0:15:09.920 --> 0:15:12.080
<v Speaker 1>I I just got an imimo in the last hour

0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:16.160
<v Speaker 1>from Barbashbrook as well in Indiana. And Barb is like

0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people in this country, and that she

0:15:18.760 --> 0:15:22.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of cobbles together a living on a couple of different,

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 1>uh part time jobs. Before the pandemic, she worked twenty

0:15:26.680 --> 0:15:29.200
<v Speaker 1>hours a week at Dollar Tree, and she worked twenty

0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:33.240
<v Speaker 1>hours a week or so as a cashier in the

0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:37.600
<v Speaker 1>food court in Eli Lily's, one of their office buildings

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.800
<v Speaker 1>in Indianapolis. Uh And when the pandemic hit, she lost

0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:43.080
<v Speaker 1>that job in the food court because no one was

0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 1>going to the office anymore. She applied for unemployment, and

0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:50.480
<v Speaker 1>she was told that she wasn't eligible for unemployment because

0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 1>she made more than a d twenty one dollars a

0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 1>week at a Dollar Tree where she worked as a cashier.

0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:01.640
<v Speaker 1>And that is more than she would have received in

0:16:01.800 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>benefits from the state of Indiana just to make up

0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>for her lost income at the food court job. Now,

0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:11.600
<v Speaker 1>you just got to back up for a second there,

0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:17.080
<v Speaker 1>imagine trying to exist one dollars a week, first of all.

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 1>Second of all, the benefits that she would have been

0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:22.640
<v Speaker 1>entitled to with the federal top up at the time

0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.520
<v Speaker 1>would have been more like seven dollars a week. That

0:16:25.520 --> 0:16:31.120
<v Speaker 1>would have completely changed Barbashbrooks experience in this pandemic. And

0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:35.680
<v Speaker 1>then it kind of gets almost into a weird kaf

0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:39.840
<v Speaker 1>Gaysk tale where a few months after she was denied benefits,

0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:41.720
<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden some money turned up in her

0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:45.480
<v Speaker 1>bank account from the state of Indiana, um, and she

0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 1>sent most of it back right away. It took the

0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:50.920
<v Speaker 1>state a couple of months to acknowledge that. And now

0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:56.400
<v Speaker 1>they've accused her of being overpaid these benefits and at

0:16:56.400 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 1>one point in March they were threatening to garnish her

0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:02.200
<v Speaker 1>wages and her tax were turns um and she's you know,

0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:06.480
<v Speaker 1>she reached out for help and she didn't get the

0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:08.439
<v Speaker 1>help she needed, and then she got caught up in

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.400
<v Speaker 1>this bureacratic nightmare. And you know, the message and her

0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:14.320
<v Speaker 1>email just an hour ago to me was you know,

0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:17.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm never going to apply for unemployment benefits again. That's

0:17:17.280 --> 0:17:19.160
<v Speaker 1>the big lesson from here is that there's no one

0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:22.680
<v Speaker 1>there to help me. Another another lesson or inside and

0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:26.000
<v Speaker 1>interested in as you mentioned Indiana there, Sean, and it

0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:30.399
<v Speaker 1>really reveals what a patchwork quilt of a country we have,

0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:33.680
<v Speaker 1>because every state has its own systems and its own

0:17:33.720 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 1>problems that they have to wrestle with her. What did

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:40.640
<v Speaker 1>you learn on that front? How inconsistent are the states? Look,

0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:43.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean there's huge inconsistency in the states. And this

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 1>is the you know, the Grand Bargain that was struck

0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:48.720
<v Speaker 1>in a new deal was for the states to control

0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:52.040
<v Speaker 1>a lot of how unemployment benefits are paid, and that

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.840
<v Speaker 1>means they get to decide how much is paid on

0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:56.919
<v Speaker 1>on on a weekly basis basis. So you have some

0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:58.720
<v Speaker 1>states that will pay you a hundred bucks or so

0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.240
<v Speaker 1>a week, up to eight hundred dollars a week in

0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.679
<v Speaker 1>the maximum level in Massachusetts. That's even before this federal

0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.239
<v Speaker 1>top up that we've had during the pandemic. And then

0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:11.439
<v Speaker 1>you have also states that are incredibly strict in terms

0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:14.280
<v Speaker 1>of who they will give benefits to. If you lived

0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:17.199
<v Speaker 1>in Arizona and you worked thirty hours a week at

0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:19.960
<v Speaker 1>the minimum wage job, you would not be eligible for

0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:24.119
<v Speaker 1>unemployment benefits because you would not hit their minimum income threshold.

0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:27.120
<v Speaker 1>In Indiana, you know a third of the people who

0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:31.040
<v Speaker 1>applied for benefits in that state, Uh, we did not

0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:34.440
<v Speaker 1>receive any benefits. So what your I always think about

0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:36.160
<v Speaker 1>when you do something like this and you guys went

0:18:36.160 --> 0:18:39.080
<v Speaker 1>through a ton of data. Uh, it's not always perfect,

0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:42.320
<v Speaker 1>right because the reporting isn't always perfect. Um, where's the

0:18:42.359 --> 0:18:45.560
<v Speaker 1>problem is it that we need federal guidelines on this

0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:48.199
<v Speaker 1>or what do we need? What is the problem? How

0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:51.560
<v Speaker 1>do we fix this? Because we're going to have another crisis. Yeah, no, absolutely,

0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's the that's the real thing that's

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.480
<v Speaker 1>exposed here is that the system that we have is

0:18:56.560 --> 0:19:00.640
<v Speaker 1>too narrow in terms of who it defines UH as

0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:04.520
<v Speaker 1>being eligible for benefits. So we need to think about

0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:07.240
<v Speaker 1>how the economy has changed and we need to broaden

0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:10.440
<v Speaker 1>out the system to catch more of these people who

0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:14.119
<v Speaker 1>are there. And we also need to understand that, um,

0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:16.480
<v Speaker 1>we need to get this money out there two people

0:19:16.560 --> 0:19:20.240
<v Speaker 1>quickly because that money has actually been hugely effective in

0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:23.320
<v Speaker 1>reducing a lot of the broader economic damage that we've

0:19:23.440 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 1>seen in this pandemic. This is a great way to

0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:29.000
<v Speaker 1>get money out there when it works. The problem is

0:19:29.359 --> 0:19:32.480
<v Speaker 1>it just doesn't work enough and for enough people. Well,

0:19:32.480 --> 0:19:34.360
<v Speaker 1>it's an incredible read, and I know you guys did,

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:36.359
<v Speaker 1>like I said, going through all the data points. Sean,

0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:38.719
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Really appreciate you bringing it to us.

0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:41.760
<v Speaker 1>Sean donn And, Senior Trade and Globalization reporter at Bloomberg

0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:44.440
<v Speaker 1>News from our bureau in d C. Joe Weber, editor

0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:47.520
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Business Week here in our interactive broker studio.

0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:51.840
<v Speaker 1>Important story. Absolutely, And when that you know that there's

0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:56.640
<v Speaker 1>the wrestle with the amount of data. Only imagine there

0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:58.120
<v Speaker 1>is a part right at the end of the story

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 1>that talks about here's a here's a really hefty paragraph

0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:04.719
<v Speaker 1>to understand how we actually like dealt with the numbers,

0:20:05.359 --> 0:20:07.320
<v Speaker 1>which is what it's all about. All right, chel, thanks,

0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:15.359
<v Speaker 1>I'm rom journal. Yeah, but you let me drive? Oh no,

0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:20.160
<v Speaker 1>no, no no, no home, honey, please, I'll do the right drivel.

0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:30.480
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive, just drive by the question trying.

0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:40.240
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks.

0:20:40.280 --> 0:20:43.720
<v Speaker 1>We'll drying us down on Bluebird Radio. All right, just

0:20:43.760 --> 0:20:46.840
<v Speaker 1>about ten and a half minutes left in today's trading session.

0:20:46.920 --> 0:20:48.920
<v Speaker 1>We have definitely seen a leg up when it comes

0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:51.280
<v Speaker 1>to the S and P five hundred and the NASDAC

0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:54.560
<v Speaker 1>just off their highs of the session. It really is, though,

0:20:55.400 --> 0:20:58.680
<v Speaker 1>generally speaking, risk off trade today, except if you happen

0:20:58.720 --> 0:21:00.520
<v Speaker 1>to be in the text base, if happened to be

0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:03.280
<v Speaker 1>a chip stock, and we know that. We also saw

0:21:04.000 --> 0:21:07.000
<v Speaker 1>some of those big tech names, specifically Facebook, pishing past.

0:21:07.560 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 1>It's one trillion dollar market cap, So let's get to

0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:12.960
<v Speaker 1>it and let's talk about the drive to the close.

0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:16.400
<v Speaker 1>Joining us once again is one of our favorite guests here,

0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:19.080
<v Speaker 1>and we're talking about Tom Plum. He is president chief

0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:22.600
<v Speaker 1>investment officer at Plum Funds based in Madison, Wisconsin, joining

0:21:22.680 --> 0:21:24.520
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from there. I talked about this

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:27.480
<v Speaker 1>all the time. His balance fund consistently a top performer.

0:21:27.920 --> 0:21:30.200
<v Speaker 1>It has been pretty much all of its peers in

0:21:30.240 --> 0:21:33.639
<v Speaker 1>the past five years, returning on average annually fifteen percent.

0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:35.600
<v Speaker 1>Forgive me, Tom, I have a ton of notes around

0:21:35.600 --> 0:21:38.040
<v Speaker 1>me and I couldn't find we're I wanted to go.

0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:40.040
<v Speaker 1>Nice to have you back with us. How are you?

0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:43.040
<v Speaker 1>It's great to talk to you. It's that kind of

0:21:43.040 --> 0:21:45.440
<v Speaker 1>a Monday. I'm just gonna put it out there. So

0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:48.720
<v Speaker 1>this marketplace, what have you been doing? Have you been buying?

0:21:48.720 --> 0:21:50.600
<v Speaker 1>Have you been selling? How do you see it? Are

0:21:50.600 --> 0:21:55.440
<v Speaker 1>their opportunities? Well, Caroline, like we've talked in the past, um,

0:21:55.600 --> 0:22:02.320
<v Speaker 1>the market initially had the cyclical bound economy, and those

0:22:02.400 --> 0:22:05.320
<v Speaker 1>were the stocks that really were performing first part of

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:09.520
<v Speaker 1>this year as they rebounded from some real significant problems

0:22:09.760 --> 0:22:12.880
<v Speaker 1>caused by the pandemic. But now we're starting to see

0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:16.600
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of moderation of the growth rates that

0:22:16.720 --> 0:22:21.600
<v Speaker 1>we'll see, and we're starting to discern between value companies

0:22:21.640 --> 0:22:26.480
<v Speaker 1>and value traps because I think that there's a lot

0:22:26.560 --> 0:22:28.680
<v Speaker 1>of areas of the economy. They are still going to

0:22:28.800 --> 0:22:32.000
<v Speaker 1>be stressed, They're still going to have some difficulty growing,

0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:34.840
<v Speaker 1>and there's going to be some companies that are going

0:22:34.880 --> 0:22:39.080
<v Speaker 1>to do pretty well because they've weathered through this and

0:22:40.080 --> 0:22:42.320
<v Speaker 1>they've you know, as we've talked in the past, we

0:22:42.440 --> 0:22:47.280
<v Speaker 1>prefer growth stocks. But the fact that some of these financials,

0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:50.160
<v Speaker 1>for example, now that they're going to be able to deleverage,

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:55.040
<v Speaker 1>that loan quality has not deteriorated and we we see

0:22:55.480 --> 0:22:59.040
<v Speaker 1>more loan demand pick up, they could actually start to

0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:02.879
<v Speaker 1>become true values and see some growth in their stock

0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:05.399
<v Speaker 1>prices even from these levels. So what name you like

0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:08.159
<v Speaker 1>is JP Morgan. We did have a headline today that

0:23:08.240 --> 0:23:10.399
<v Speaker 1>they are buying a stake in a digital bank C

0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:14.840
<v Speaker 1>six in uh move into Brazilian the retail space there,

0:23:14.880 --> 0:23:19.000
<v Speaker 1>the retail banking sector there specifically, so expanding their reach.

0:23:19.400 --> 0:23:21.159
<v Speaker 1>I'm guessing you're gonna be watching for some of the

0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:23.159
<v Speaker 1>headlines after the clothes today to see what they do

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:28.400
<v Speaker 1>with that extra extra cast cash post the FED stress tests.

0:23:28.720 --> 0:23:32.199
<v Speaker 1>What is though you're thinking about JP Morgan, Well, you know,

0:23:32.240 --> 0:23:36.880
<v Speaker 1>basically the best company out there in the financial the

0:23:36.920 --> 0:23:40.880
<v Speaker 1>major banks that we've seen, and they they have excess capital.

0:23:41.240 --> 0:23:43.679
<v Speaker 1>And when we go back to the times at the

0:23:43.720 --> 0:23:47.159
<v Speaker 1>bank stocks were the leaders um that was back in

0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:50.879
<v Speaker 1>the eighties and early nineties and even the early parts

0:23:50.880 --> 0:23:55.560
<v Speaker 1>of this decade century when they were de leveraging, when

0:23:55.600 --> 0:23:59.200
<v Speaker 1>they had high quality growth and they didn't have to

0:23:59.240 --> 0:24:04.720
<v Speaker 1>continuely borrow more money at expensive rates. So the return

0:24:04.760 --> 0:24:09.040
<v Speaker 1>of capital through dividends and through UH stock buybacks is

0:24:09.080 --> 0:24:11.840
<v Speaker 1>going to be something that's going to fuel true growth.

0:24:12.280 --> 0:24:14.560
<v Speaker 1>It's one of those things that like a Warren Buffett

0:24:14.600 --> 0:24:18.160
<v Speaker 1>has always liked about certain companies like Coca Cola for example,

0:24:19.160 --> 0:24:22.199
<v Speaker 1>it makes sense at this stage and those type of

0:24:22.200 --> 0:24:26.119
<v Speaker 1>companies that have been well capitalized whether through this, I

0:24:26.160 --> 0:24:29.800
<v Speaker 1>think they can be growth stocks. Again. That's interesting. So okay,

0:24:29.840 --> 0:24:32.440
<v Speaker 1>so you're thinking about that about JP Morgan. Another financial

0:24:32.480 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 1>that you like is Discover Financial tickers d F ACID.

0:24:36.119 --> 0:24:38.199
<v Speaker 1>It's actually had a pretty nice bounce this year. It's

0:24:38.280 --> 0:24:42.080
<v Speaker 1>up about you're also talking about a dividend five year

0:24:42.119 --> 0:24:43.960
<v Speaker 1>net growth of about nine and a half percent. Is

0:24:43.960 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 1>it the dividend story again that you like or what? Well,

0:24:47.680 --> 0:24:51.560
<v Speaker 1>it's the it's the conversions of the reopening story with

0:24:51.680 --> 0:24:56.840
<v Speaker 1>the structural move to digital wallet, So UM Discover was

0:24:57.240 --> 0:25:02.720
<v Speaker 1>significantly impacted because a lot of their urchranses are through restaurants,

0:25:03.119 --> 0:25:07.399
<v Speaker 1>UH and retail their point of their point of sale

0:25:07.680 --> 0:25:11.400
<v Speaker 1>where you're in contact with the person on the other

0:25:11.520 --> 0:25:14.680
<v Speaker 1>end who's UM. You're buying your product from your at

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:17.760
<v Speaker 1>the restaurants. So the reopening of the economy is going

0:25:17.800 --> 0:25:21.600
<v Speaker 1>to help them significantly. And then the fact that they

0:25:21.640 --> 0:25:24.120
<v Speaker 1>have real high capital ratio and then we'll be able

0:25:24.160 --> 0:25:26.919
<v Speaker 1>to start to return some of that. They also have

0:25:27.000 --> 0:25:31.200
<v Speaker 1>a network that we think is valuable and can be

0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:34.800
<v Speaker 1>used as all these companies are trying to build up

0:25:34.800 --> 0:25:38.000
<v Speaker 1>their digital wallets. It's a lot of financials that you like,

0:25:38.040 --> 0:25:40.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm just looking to your list. MasterCard is another one,

0:25:40.520 --> 0:25:44.840
<v Speaker 1>and that's again what As the economy reopened, whether it's services,

0:25:44.840 --> 0:25:47.000
<v Speaker 1>whether it's good, people are gonna be using their cards more,

0:25:47.960 --> 0:25:50.880
<v Speaker 1>and especially they're going to use them at restaurants, They're

0:25:50.880 --> 0:25:54.160
<v Speaker 1>going to use them for business traveling, entertainment, and they're

0:25:54.160 --> 0:25:57.680
<v Speaker 1>going to use them for cross border transactions. Those three

0:25:57.720 --> 0:26:01.160
<v Speaker 1>areas were very weak for master Card last year, even

0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:07.280
<v Speaker 1>though they showed revenue modestly increasing because of the online

0:26:07.359 --> 0:26:10.560
<v Speaker 1>purchasing and things and the digital wallet that we've talked about.

0:26:11.000 --> 0:26:14.119
<v Speaker 1>But we expect them to see a real cyclical rebound

0:26:14.560 --> 0:26:18.080
<v Speaker 1>and they're probably going to have earnings maybe even revenues

0:26:18.160 --> 0:26:21.399
<v Speaker 1>up the quarter that we're in, and we're looking for

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:23.359
<v Speaker 1>the whole year for the earnings to be up almost

0:26:24.320 --> 0:26:26.680
<v Speaker 1>So here's a little bit of a different company ol

0:26:27.680 --> 0:26:30.320
<v Speaker 1>Uh and this is a company that had its I

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:33.080
<v Speaker 1>p O earlier this year. Tell us about the thinking

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:37.919
<v Speaker 1>on this one, Well, it's online ordering, So that's what

0:26:37.960 --> 0:26:41.560
<v Speaker 1>it stands for as the interface between the restaurants and

0:26:41.640 --> 0:26:45.959
<v Speaker 1>the on demand world. They've got. They're basically Switzerland for

0:26:46.000 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 1>those companies, those restaurants that don't want to develop their

0:26:51.280 --> 0:26:55.520
<v Speaker 1>own apps and their own interfaces. This is a company

0:26:55.560 --> 0:26:58.320
<v Speaker 1>that then can put you together with door Dash and

0:26:58.520 --> 0:27:03.080
<v Speaker 1>cavir that and get it you combined with your ordering

0:27:03.119 --> 0:27:07.000
<v Speaker 1>system on at the restaurant with clover and toast and

0:27:07.320 --> 0:27:13.080
<v Speaker 1>processing your transactions. So it's wedding the the person who

0:27:13.119 --> 0:27:15.720
<v Speaker 1>wants to buy something. You want to go to a

0:27:15.720 --> 0:27:19.359
<v Speaker 1>fast food or any type of restaurant and order your food.

0:27:19.880 --> 0:27:22.879
<v Speaker 1>We've all gone there. Now you see the line. You

0:27:22.880 --> 0:27:26.080
<v Speaker 1>can skip the line if you've pre ordered that's what

0:27:26.119 --> 0:27:30.400
<v Speaker 1>this company does. And uh, basically that's the world where

0:27:30.520 --> 0:27:32.720
<v Speaker 1>now people are not going to sit in line to

0:27:32.840 --> 0:27:36.600
<v Speaker 1>go to your subway or something like that, when when

0:27:36.640 --> 0:27:39.520
<v Speaker 1>they can use this app and and get in out

0:27:39.720 --> 0:27:42.600
<v Speaker 1>do whatever they want to do. Yeah, it definitely plays

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:44.280
<v Speaker 1>into what we've seen over the past year in the

0:27:44.359 --> 0:27:46.639
<v Speaker 1>changing world. Hey, um, Tom just got about thirty seconds

0:27:46.680 --> 0:27:48.640
<v Speaker 1>left here. One name it or not even a name.

0:27:48.680 --> 0:27:51.879
<v Speaker 1>But you are the crypto world. We're all obsessed. And

0:27:51.960 --> 0:27:55.439
<v Speaker 1>you say, don't confuse crypto technology with cryptocurrency, just quickly

0:27:55.840 --> 0:28:01.639
<v Speaker 1>explain that, Well, you know, crypt crypt drole currency is basically,

0:28:01.880 --> 0:28:07.439
<v Speaker 1>I think somewhat of an artificially created shortage story. And

0:28:07.520 --> 0:28:09.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you call back and you don't have

0:28:09.600 --> 0:28:12.240
<v Speaker 1>to live the Tulip bubble, but you can go back

0:28:12.240 --> 0:28:15.280
<v Speaker 1>to twenty five years ago to the brute beanie babies,

0:28:15.800 --> 0:28:19.400
<v Speaker 1>and you can see that when you have artificially restrained

0:28:19.720 --> 0:28:24.240
<v Speaker 1>um supply and then you have a story, it becomes

0:28:24.240 --> 0:28:27.479
<v Speaker 1>a fan, it feeds on itself, but it doesn't have

0:28:27.520 --> 0:28:32.960
<v Speaker 1>any real sustainable value. Yeah, it's it's difficult to think

0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:36.640
<v Speaker 1>that you would actually use a bitcoin to buy something

0:28:36.680 --> 0:28:42.320
<v Speaker 1>at Starbucks that you're going to drink and disappears, and well,

0:28:42.360 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 1>it's certainly something we talked about a lot. Tom Always

0:28:45.640 --> 0:28:47.680
<v Speaker 1>get to check in with you, Tom Plumb, He's President,

0:28:47.760 --> 0:28:53.520
<v Speaker 1>chief investment officer at Plumb Funds from Madison, Wisconsin. Thanks

0:28:53.560 --> 0:28:57.440
<v Speaker 1>for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:28:57.560 --> 0:28:59.680
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0:28:59.720 --> 0:29:01.960
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0:29:02.040 --> 0:29:05.200
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