1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,480 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast, but this one is good. 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:08,560 Speaker 2: All right. 3 00:00:08,560 --> 00:00:09,120 Speaker 3: Here we go. 4 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: Throwing in so we're saying it's a cash toto. 5 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 2: That's all we see. 6 00:00:17,200 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind. 7 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: That's incredible. 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. 9 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right. 10 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 2: This is the ultimate kabai if you want to pass, 11 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: and we are underway. Hello, and welcome to another episode 12 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 2: of strong Side Fridays Here on the Action Network podcast. 13 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: I'm your host, Brandon Anderson here with Raheem Palmer, getting 14 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,839 Speaker 2: you ready for some week seventeen action. It is our 15 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 2: most jam packed Sunday of the season. We got fifteen 16 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:56,319 Speaker 2: games on Sunday, No Thursday, one Monday. We're loading them 17 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 2: all up on Sunday. We are headed toward the postseason. 18 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:02,279 Speaker 2: We're heeem, the playoffs are just around the corner. You're 19 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 2: getting excited yet. 20 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: I am excited, but I think I'm more so. I 21 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 1: just want the regular season. And because you're starting to 22 00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: see with this extra week, it's starting to drag. Obviously, 23 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: you have all this COVID stuff going on. So it's 24 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: throwing a monkey wrench and everything. It's like we're all 25 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: were excited about that extra week eighteen. But it's like, 26 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: come on, man, let's get into it. Let's get to 27 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 1: the serious game. 28 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, it does seem like these new COVID rules will 29 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:28,960 Speaker 2: lighten the COVID mess a little bit, getting some guys 30 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 2: back on the field. It does make our jobs a 31 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 2: little trickier though, because suddenly we got like all these 32 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 2: coltskuys that might sneak back in the lineup. So we'll 33 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,119 Speaker 2: see about that. Don't forget if you haven't yet, make 34 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 2: sure to rate and review the podcast Apple and Spotify 35 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 2: now you can do that, so make sure to give 36 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 2: us the five stars. 37 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:46,199 Speaker 1: There. 38 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 2: I'll sit there from BETMGM, the official outs provider of 39 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast, And like usual today we're going 40 00:01:52,320 --> 00:01:55,080 Speaker 2: to do our three Marquee game breakdowns and we'll do 41 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 2: matchups and analysis. We'll get to our best bets, and 42 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 2: then we'll hit the look ahead at the end, last 43 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 2: look ahead before we get to the postseason. Let's get 44 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 2: down to business and make some picks. Let's get down. 45 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 1: Let's get down business. So let's get down. 46 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,720 Speaker 2: Let's get so. Our games are split up this week. 47 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 2: We got one early, one late afternoon, one in the evening, 48 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 2: starting early Looking at the AFC one seed race, the 49 00:02:20,160 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 2: Chiefs and the Bengals both still alive for the one seed. 50 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 2: The Bengals can win out, get some help from the 51 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 2: Chiefs losing next week, and possibly still get there. Bengals 52 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 2: win the division if they get the win here. They're 53 00:02:32,240 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 2: not even necessarily a playoff team yet. The Chiefs, we 54 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,799 Speaker 2: gave them up for dead. They're back. They're rolling now, 55 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 2: Chiefs minus five in Cincinnati. What are you thinking about 56 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 2: this game or him? 57 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 1: I love the Chiefs in this spot. I mean, I 58 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: absolutely love this team. Look, the Chiefs have been rolling. 59 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: They've won eight in a row, six against the spread. 60 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: We're a far crowd from the team who just couldn't 61 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 1: cover the number for nearly a year. I mean, this 62 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: Chiefs defense has just been absolutely dominant lately. They're only 63 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: giving up fourteen point five points per game over the 64 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:08,639 Speaker 1: last ten. And when you look at the other side 65 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: of the ball, that's where the handicap really really kicks in. 66 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: This Bengals defense really can't stop any anybody who's good. 67 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,519 Speaker 1: They're fourteenth in football outside of defensive dv away despite 68 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,079 Speaker 1: playing the fourteenth Frank schedule of opposing offense. So when 69 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 1: you look, they gave up thirty four points to the Jets, 70 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 1: they gave it forty one points to the Browns, and 71 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:32,519 Speaker 1: they give up forty one points to the Chargers. The 72 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: forty Nineers pretty much got anything that they wanted on them. 73 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: So anytime they're playing a good offense, they're in trouble. 74 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: And you got Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, they're all back 75 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 1: in the lineup. The Chiefs have found something. They're gonna 76 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: be able to do whatever they want on this Bengals defense. 77 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, Kelsey should be back. Tyreek Hill played last week 78 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:53,200 Speaker 2: but was mostly a nonfactor. I think you played like 79 00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 2: forty percent of the snaps and they rolled anyway. It 80 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: didn't even matter against the Steelers, who are still possibly 81 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 2: you know, are in this division with the Bengals, and 82 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: they still could have win this thing. I'm with you 83 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: on this. I like the Chiefs a lot here. The 84 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,480 Speaker 2: Bengals on the season have faced the league's weakest schedule overall, 85 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 2: number thirty two strengths to schedule at Football Outsiders, and 86 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 2: especially the Bengals offense, that's who's facing just nobody on defense. 87 00:04:20,560 --> 00:04:24,360 Speaker 2: They have only faced all season four teams in the 88 00:04:24,400 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 2: top twenty DVA defensively four in the top twenty. So 89 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: they have eleven games against the bottom twelve teams. There's 90 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 2: seven to four in those games, thirty points a game. 91 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 2: In those four games against the top twenty defense, which 92 00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: the Chiefs clearly are at this point, they're two and 93 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:42,479 Speaker 2: two twenty points a game, so ten points lest they 94 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 2: got blown out by the Browns, they had three toss ups. 95 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,359 Speaker 2: I think the Bengals were giving them a little too 96 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:51,200 Speaker 2: much credit here if you look at the schedule. Yeah, 97 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 2: the Bengals blew out the Ravens, they blew out the Steelers, 98 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 2: they blew out the Lions and the Raiders. Those are 99 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 2: not necessarily great teams. They're not terrible teams other than 100 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 2: the Lions, but they're not necessarily the most impressive wins. 101 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 2: And I wonder is this team good or is this 102 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:12,200 Speaker 2: just the best team in the worst division. Maybe Outside 103 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 2: of those games, the Bengals have six games within a 104 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: field goal. They have seven to one score games. They 105 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 2: had a one score game against the Bears, the Jaguars, 106 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 2: the Broncos, the Jets. They're going to wire to wire 107 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 2: fighting to get wins against these teams. They have blown 108 00:05:26,440 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 2: out by the Browns and by the Chargers. This is 109 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:32,200 Speaker 2: a team where if it looks good, it's really good. 110 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,160 Speaker 2: We saw last week Joe Burrow could have thrown for 111 00:05:34,200 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 2: a thousand yards if you wanted. But when it's not good, 112 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 2: it's really not good. And I've seen the Chiefs are 113 00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 2: much better team here. 114 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, we're on the same page here. The Baltimore Ravens 115 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: didn't have their starting two quarterbacks and they still gave 116 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,120 Speaker 1: up twenty one points to this team. The Ravens actually 117 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:52,920 Speaker 1: they were in it for the first court and obviously 118 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 1: at some point talent takes over. But Josh Jashner was 119 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: twenty eight to forty for three hundred and four yards 120 00:05:58,279 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: in two touchdowns. What is Patrick Mahomes in a better 121 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: offense going to do. I just think it's a really 122 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 1: bad spot for the Bengals. I think it says a 123 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 1: lot that this line is five and a half and 124 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: has come down because to me, what would this line 125 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,800 Speaker 1: be if they didn't blow out the Ravens last league 126 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: they lost to the Jets and the Browns. Like, what 127 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:19,200 Speaker 1: do we say it? 128 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's this is a spot where you've got to 129 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 2: zoom outa and think what if this game was a 130 00:06:23,960 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 2: different spot on the schedule and not the game right 131 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 2: after that big Ravens win. What if it's right after 132 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 2: that Jets loss or the Browns blowout. What if it's 133 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 2: any other spot the Chiefs, you know, other than that 134 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 2: like one month where it went really bad. The Chiefs 135 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,479 Speaker 2: have been playing good ball again for a long while. 136 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,720 Speaker 2: Now move this around in the schedule and this line goes, 137 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:43,600 Speaker 2: you know, like, what would this line have been before 138 00:06:43,640 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 2: the season for that matter, And the Bengals have been 139 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 2: much better than we thought. But yeah, this is a 140 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 2: spot where it's a it's a sell high on the Bengals. 141 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 2: One way that Sincinny could hang in here, They'll keep 142 00:06:54,920 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 2: my eye on. I noticed the turnovers battle, and we 143 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 2: saw that early on with the Chiefs first seven games, 144 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,040 Speaker 2: and the Chiefs went three and four, they forced only 145 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 2: seven turnovers, so one per game they turn it over 146 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,159 Speaker 2: seventeen times. We remember Patrick Mahomes had the worst luck 147 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 2: in the world, like all those red zone turnovers. Since then, 148 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 2: Chiefs of one to eight in a row during the 149 00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 2: eight wins one one turnovers forced only eight turnovers given up, 150 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 2: So now they're only turning over once a game. Forcing 151 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 2: almost three per game. So you know, we know the 152 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 2: turnover battle is huge. That's true of every football game ever. 153 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 2: If the Bengals can keep the ball and not turn 154 00:07:31,840 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 2: it over, it's going to be a loud home crowd 155 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 2: at the Jungle. That's I think the path we're staying 156 00:07:37,320 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 2: in this one. But yeah, we're on the same page. 157 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 2: We're both on Chiefs. This is a playoff game, and 158 00:07:43,320 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 2: we know the Chiefs show up for playoff games. We 159 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 2: know what we're going to get from them. We don't 160 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:50,400 Speaker 2: know yet from the Bengals. We don't know yet against 161 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 2: a genuinely, really, definitely good team, and I'm just gonna 162 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 2: have to see them do it before I can give 163 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 2: them the respect of my money. 164 00:07:57,720 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, without a doubt. I think we can move 165 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: on to the next game. We had Cardinals versus the Cowboys. 166 00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: I'm really excited about this one. Obviously, I am a 167 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: Cowboys fan. We're coming off that major, major win against 168 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: the Washington football team. We probably put up the worst 169 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: performance of the season. So what's your thoughts on this one? 170 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, so Cowboys, this is another one. This was out 171 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 2: five and a half, only this one's moving the other way. 172 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 2: This one is up to six now for the Cowboys. 173 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:25,480 Speaker 2: So the public is coming in on Dallas here no surprise. 174 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 2: Dallas is eleven and three against the spread on the season, 175 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 2: that leads the NFL. You know, the public is making 176 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 2: a lot of money this year because the Cowboys and 177 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 2: the Packers, the most public of public teams, just cannot 178 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 2: lose against the spread. And this to me is not 179 00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 2: about the matchup. We'll get to the matchup part two. 180 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,760 Speaker 2: This is just an absolutely classic bi low cell high spot. 181 00:08:50,080 --> 00:08:52,559 Speaker 2: This is again just what we talked about. Dallas just 182 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 2: blew out Washington in a game where they literally could 183 00:08:56,640 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 2: not have had it go more their way than a 184 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,520 Speaker 2: defensive touchdown. They had a punt block touchdown. That punt 185 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,160 Speaker 2: I never seen the guy before get so far past 186 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,480 Speaker 2: the line. He literally volleyball spiked it like you go 187 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 2: out with two hands. No, no, He's like, nah, I'm 188 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 2: just here, I got one hand. I'm just gonna spike 189 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 2: the ball down and grab it. They just let everything 190 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,240 Speaker 2: go right, and Washington has everything going wrong with all 191 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 2: the COVID stuff. But I don't know, is the Cowboys 192 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,719 Speaker 2: offense really back here? So Dallas has won four in 193 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: a row now, but all four have been against backup 194 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,360 Speaker 2: quarterbacks Saints Washington twice and the Giants, and no way 195 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 2: Tyler Henneke was back. Wait, he's still the backup Chits 196 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 2: Patrick was supposed to be their quarterback. So before those 197 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 2: four games, they had lost three out of four, and 198 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 2: Dak Prescott's numbers have been really not great since he 199 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:46,960 Speaker 2: came back from that injury. I'm not convinced that the 200 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 2: Cowboys offense really is back. Of course, we know the 201 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 2: Cardinals have not been playing very good football, but this 202 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:55,200 Speaker 2: is just a spot to me where the Cardinals really 203 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: can't be much worse than they have been. It's still 204 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 2: a talented team. There's still a lot of talent over there, 205 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 2: and the Cowboys are flying high. It's this big Sunday 206 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 2: night National TV when there's too many points to me, 207 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:09,120 Speaker 2: this line of fields in the flavor, I think it 208 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 2: should have been around a field goal, and it's just 209 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 2: going up up at those points. So I'm leaning towards 210 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 2: the Cardinals here. 211 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 1: I do think from a numbers perspective, you see this number, 212 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:20,839 Speaker 1: and it's very similar to what we said last week 213 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: against the Indianapolis coachs. This is a great number spot 214 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 1: for Arizona. Well, last week they went out there and 215 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 1: they laid it in. My numbers actually put this at 216 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: around five. So it's tough to back the Cowboys in 217 00:10:33,400 --> 00:10:35,400 Speaker 1: this spot, but I think I'm gonna do it. Look, 218 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: we spoke about Cook Kingsburg and his struggles towards the 219 00:10:39,080 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: end of the season. Before Week eight under Kingsbury, this 220 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 1: Cardinals team is fifteen to five and one. After Week 221 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:48,679 Speaker 1: eight and later the Cardinals are eight and nineteen, And 222 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 1: I think when you look at the matchup, there's some 223 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: problematic things and some advantages for the Cowboys. First and foremost, 224 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 1: the Cardinals are nineteenth and rushing success rate since JJ 225 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 1: weissman out, this is not the same defense. You look 226 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: at the offense, they completely sputter. They're ranking in the 227 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: bottom five in the NFL and points per play during 228 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 1: your losing streak, the three game losing street, they have 229 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: thirty points against the Detroit Lions. They're in the bottom 230 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: ten in points per play allowed over that spin. So 231 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: it's just sometimes the public wins. And you look at 232 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: these last three losses, the Rams were playing good football. 233 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: Like the Rams came into that game with the losing 234 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:28,599 Speaker 1: streak in their own the Lions. I mean, I know 235 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 1: they're playing solid football, but we're talking about the Lions, 236 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 1: and Carson Wentz really hasn't been playing good football as well. 237 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,080 Speaker 1: So I'm concerned about this Cardinals team. I'm gonna be honest, 238 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: I think they're cooked. And sometimes you have to know, 239 00:11:43,120 --> 00:11:44,760 Speaker 1: like sometimes you kind of have to throw out the 240 00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: full season numbers and recognize, you know, what this team is. 241 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: It what they were earlier on in the season, and 242 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: maybe we need to start fading, and I think we 243 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:57,200 Speaker 1: saw it. A good example is probably the Carson Palmer 244 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:00,400 Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals forwards the end of their rank. They start 245 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 1: off the season really hot, and you can just see 246 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: after Carson Wentz's finger injury, they just never were the same. 247 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,160 Speaker 1: And I think that Cardinals team reminds me of this. 248 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 1: So for me, I'm looking to play the Cowboys or pass. 249 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 2: I really can't argue with any of that logic. If 250 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,559 Speaker 2: you look at if you look on paper, the Cowboys 251 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,319 Speaker 2: are just the better team right now. That defensive line 252 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 2: is so good, as good as any unit as there 253 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 2: is in football right now. And like somebody just asked me, 254 00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:29,720 Speaker 2: you know, last week at the Christmas dinner, my family 255 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:31,680 Speaker 2: asked me, who's going to win the Super Bowl this year? 256 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 2: I said the Cowboys. I think the Cowboys are legitimately 257 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 2: super Bowl contender. I'm just playing the number here and 258 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,720 Speaker 2: I'm just Mike Gut says. This is a spot and 259 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 2: I've gotten better at this even this season. This is 260 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 2: a spot where you look and you think, yeah, the 261 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 2: Dallas is going to win this game. Dallas is just 262 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,719 Speaker 2: they're playing well. Arizona's fading. All the stuff you just said, 263 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 2: I don't disagree with any of it, and it's just 264 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 2: who wants to take Arizona in the spot though, as 265 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,360 Speaker 2: awful as they're looking, as good as Dallas looks, And 266 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 2: that's for me, just why my gut says, you gotta 267 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 2: do what you gotta take Arizona. So road dogs this 268 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 2: season under a touchdown sixty seven percent cover rate. Teams 269 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 2: who covered by twenty six or more points their last 270 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 2: game forty four percent cover rate. That's the Cowboys, So 271 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,960 Speaker 2: that's pointing towards some inflation. Teams like the Cardinals, who 272 00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 2: have lost three and failed to cover all three of 273 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:24,880 Speaker 2: them in a row fifty five percent against the spread 274 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 2: the next game. These aren't huge trends, but all the 275 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 2: trends point to the same gut feeling I have, which 276 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,440 Speaker 2: is it just feels a little inflated, and especially with 277 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:37,480 Speaker 2: the line moving that way. Last one, Cliff, Kingsbury, we 278 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 2: dump a lot on Cliff. We will do it again 279 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,959 Speaker 2: Cliff as an underdog seventeen to seven and two against 280 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 2: the spread, seventy one percent cover five and o this 281 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,599 Speaker 2: season against the spread, and straight up five and o 282 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 2: on the road as an underdog this season. Kingsbury underdog 283 00:13:54,480 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 2: teams have won ten of the last fourteen underdog spots. Outright, 284 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 2: I don't think I will play the money line here. 285 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,520 Speaker 2: I do have to play the plus six just because 286 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 2: I'm just playing the number and the spot, and I 287 00:14:07,520 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 2: just feel like, despite all the things that we agree on, 288 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: I just have to play the number here and hope 289 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 2: that I'm reading the number right. 290 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. I can't argue with that. From a numbers perspective. 291 00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: It makes all the sense of the world. I just 292 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: think this team is completely cooked and they're not a 293 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,080 Speaker 1: team that I really want to be. Back to me 294 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: when I look at the Cowboys. They play the Philadelphia 295 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: Eagles next week. That's the spot where I think I'm 296 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 1: be more interested in baiting. 297 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting, all right. From your team to my team. 298 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 2: We had the Sunday night, my Minnesota Vikings fighting for 299 00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 2: their lives against the Green Bay Packers, big division rivalry game. Again, 300 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 2: this is the one where the line is moving a 301 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:46,600 Speaker 2: little bit. Just today, it's moved up to minus seven 302 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: at most boards. So I want to start here. We 303 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 2: talked with the Packers. We've done a lot of Packers 304 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 2: games on this Friday spot. We talked about their home 305 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 2: field advantage. You've got them as the biggest home field 306 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 2: advantage in football. I think you said about four and 307 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 2: a half points. So my metrics make these teams not 308 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: so far off from each other. We've said all year 309 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 2: and for seasons in a row, the Packers continue to 310 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 2: like sleep with the Angels and just get all these 311 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 2: close wins. But the metrics show a team that's a 312 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 2: little flawed. So even if you count in the extra Packers' 313 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 2: home field advantage, is this line right to you? Or 314 00:15:23,960 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 2: are we giving green Bay too many points here? 315 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: I think this line is right for no other reason 316 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:32,760 Speaker 1: than the fact that the Vikings just put Adam Delan 317 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: on ir and that's a really really really big loss. 318 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: We can't say enough about them. Justin Jefferson is great, 319 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 1: but you got to have that other receiver on the 320 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:48,120 Speaker 1: other side. I do think there are some advantages the 321 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: Vikings have, obviously with their ability to run the ball 322 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 1: and their conservative nature. We saw last week the Cleveland 323 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: Browns ran the ball at will over this team, and 324 00:15:58,240 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: that's something that the Vikings could do which could put 325 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:05,200 Speaker 1: them in a good position. But I don't know what 326 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 1: to make of this. Kirk Cousins in prime time situation, 327 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: he's truly struggled. If you look at his prime time 328 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 1: record on Sunday Night Football, he's just four and four. 329 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 1: He's two and nine on Monday Night Football, at three 330 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 1: and four on Thursday Night Football. At three prime time 331 00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: games this season, he has one hundred and sixty two 332 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: passing yards per game, fifty four percent completion percentage, five TVs. 333 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: Three interceptions, seventy three point six passer rating. I don't 334 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 1: know what to make of it. Obviously, that could be noise, 335 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,600 Speaker 1: but that's something that's played him throughout his career. The 336 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: big thing in this matchup is that this game is 337 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: expected to be five degrees at kickoff, and the average 338 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: passing game over the last eight years in single digit 339 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: wather or colder, it's sixteen completions, one hundred and sixty 340 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 1: yards and zero touchdowns. So when you hear that, when 341 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: you hear those numbers, that that kind of makes you think, 342 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: you know, maybe we should be taking the Vikings with 343 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 1: the seven points. But I'm really skeptical. 344 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting the weather. To me, you hear that 345 00:17:03,280 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 2: weather in those passing stats, and it makes me think, okay, 346 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 2: So then we got to look closer at the run game. 347 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 2: And that makes me feel good as a Vikings fan 348 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:14,000 Speaker 2: because the Packers run defense, we know, has been very 349 00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 2: leaky all season. We've talked about who are the teams 350 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:18,880 Speaker 2: that we want to see face the Packers a spot 351 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 2: in the playoffs, and it's those run centric offenses. Dalvin 352 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 2: Cook is back. So Dalvin Cook this season, I noticed 353 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 2: twice he's missed a game. When he comes back after 354 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 2: a miss game with that extra little week of rest, 355 00:17:32,840 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 2: here's his game after he missed one against Carolina. Twenty 356 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 2: nine carries one hundred and forty yards in a touchdown. 357 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,639 Speaker 2: Against Pittsburgh twenty seven carries two hundred five yards, two touchdowns. 358 00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,479 Speaker 2: That's is two best games of the season. It's just 359 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:47,879 Speaker 2: a little bit of extra juice in the legs with 360 00:17:47,960 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 2: the extra rest, so that could be big here. Aaron 361 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 2: Jones plays in this one. He missed the first game 362 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 2: between these teams. That game, like every Minnesota game this year, 363 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 2: the Vikings took the early lead, they gave up. The 364 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:03,640 Speaker 2: Packers battle back and had the lead late. Minnesota drove 365 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 2: for the long touchdown, took the lead. The Packers immediately 366 00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,199 Speaker 2: got the long touchdown MVS and then the Vikings had 367 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 2: the walk off field goal. I was leaning over here. 368 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 2: That game was thirty four to thirty one, sixty five points. 369 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,320 Speaker 2: Looking at the last times these teams have played, so 370 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 2: the Vikings this season ten out of fifteen games have 371 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:27,040 Speaker 2: had over forty six points. Packers have been forty six 372 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 2: or more in their last five. However, the cold weather 373 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 2: puts a damper on that for sure. We know that 374 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 2: that tends to make the scoring go down a little bit. 375 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:40,360 Speaker 2: The Packers, though, this just feels like an inherently flawed 376 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 2: team to me. Over the last six games, Packers are 377 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 2: number twenty seven in EPA per play Defensively for the season, 378 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,919 Speaker 2: they're dead last on special teams on DVOA. It's just 379 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 2: it's a team that they make the plays, they're getting 380 00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 2: the wins. But we just we know from history that 381 00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:02,480 Speaker 2: doesn't last. It looks more and more unfortunately for me 382 00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 2: and my Tom Brady position. Aaron Rodgers is the MVP. 383 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 2: Rogers is awesome. Rodgers is probably going to win it 384 00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,680 Speaker 2: and should win it. The last MVP to win a 385 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 2: Super Bowl was Kurt Warner in nineteen ninety nine. When 386 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 2: you're the MVP, part of what it means to be 387 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 2: the MVP is that your team is a little flawed, 388 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 2: and the MVP has to be good enough to get 389 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 2: you over the hump. And I just think in a 390 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 2: game like this, against a talented Minnesota team that is 391 00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 2: fighting for its season, fighting for its coach, maybe they 392 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 2: seem to really go out and fight in these Zimmer 393 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 2: games where they're a spot against the back against the wall, 394 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 2: and that's where those flaws come through. And at plus seven, 395 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 2: we only need a one score game here. The Vikings 396 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 2: have in one score games fourteen out of fifteen for 397 00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 2: the season, So I just I have a hard time 398 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 2: seeing Minnesota get blown out in this game. I think 399 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,520 Speaker 2: it's a great spot to take the plus seven here. 400 00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't argue with that at all. And I 401 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 1: think we listed all the reasons between the weather, between 402 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: the run game, and just the Packers be and flawed. 403 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: I think they were lucky to escape that game against 404 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 1: Cleveland with the victory, and a lot of it had 405 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 1: to do with the fact that Baker threw for interceptions. 406 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,439 Speaker 1: If Kirk can play a clean game, they could possibly 407 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: win this game. Out right, I'm personally not touching it 408 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:16,280 Speaker 1: just because I'm kind of off the Vikings. I was 409 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: the king of the Minnesota Vikings betting syndicate earlier this season, 410 00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:22,879 Speaker 1: but I'm off of it now just because I just 411 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 1: think this team has tail spin. After the forty nine 412 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,040 Speaker 1: Ers game, It's just it's tough to trust this team. 413 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 1: We saw it last week against the Rams. They probably 414 00:20:30,040 --> 00:20:32,600 Speaker 1: should have covered that game, but it's just I'm done 415 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:32,920 Speaker 1: with them. 416 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't blame you, and I will say this 417 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:38,560 Speaker 2: the Vikings. I've said it. This is my team. I 418 00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 2: think that I have the worst record against the spread 419 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 2: picking Vikings games of any team. I picked every game 420 00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 2: for the season. I think the Vikings are my worst team. 421 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 2: So maybe the real thing to do is just watch 422 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,360 Speaker 2: for my Vikings pick and fade my Vikings pick here. 423 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 2: But I just think this is a spot to fade 424 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:56,120 Speaker 2: the Packers. A couple of things, a couple more trends here. 425 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,719 Speaker 2: You mentioned the Kirk cousins and primetime trends. The trends 426 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 2: are coming back to even a little bit. Kirk started 427 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,880 Speaker 2: out seven and fifteen against the spread in nighttime games. 428 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 2: Four out of the last five he's covered now, so 429 00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,439 Speaker 2: he's starting to show up in some of those spots. 430 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 2: Another thing too, it feels like in this this game 431 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,600 Speaker 2: the rivalry, if you just think who's winning this rivalry, 432 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,400 Speaker 2: it seems like the Packers are dominating this rivalry. However, 433 00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 2: Packer Or Minnesota had won only two of twelve games 434 00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 2: against the Packers about a half decade ago, but since then, 435 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 2: out of the last twelve, Packers have only won four 436 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 2: times out of those twelve games, including one out of 437 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 2: the last four at home. So the Vikings are getting 438 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 2: the job done. Mike Zimmer's team, like Zimmer's defense, even 439 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 2: when the defense is flawed, seems to have some answers 440 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 2: against this team to show up. I do expect a 441 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 2: lot of points. Jefferson Packers don't really have an answer 442 00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,640 Speaker 2: for him. The Vikings haven't had an answer for Devonte 443 00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:57,120 Speaker 2: Adams for years now, so this feels like a game 444 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,439 Speaker 2: that's going to be close late. I think the Viger're 445 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 2: going to have a shot, So I'm gonna take the 446 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 2: seven plus two to fifty on the money line. I'm 447 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 2: gonna have to play that a little bit too. I 448 00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 2: think this is a close game, and boy, if it's close, 449 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 2: you gotta want Aaron Rodgers at home and Lambeau you 450 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 2: gotta think the Packers pull out the win with your MVP. 451 00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 2: But there's a lot at stake for green Bay here. 452 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,320 Speaker 2: You're fighting for the one seed. You need the win here. 453 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 2: So it's it's a spot that I like the Vikings. 454 00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:28,600 Speaker 2: Hopefully my track record on Minnesota this season is wrong, 455 00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 2: so that way I can enjoy a good Vikings game 456 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 2: with my family and get a good one Sunday night. 457 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean for me, I would feel better about 458 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 1: it if feeling was out there. Obviously, Jay R Alexander 459 00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: actually we don't know if he's gonna play, but he's 460 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: actually been activated from injury preserve, so he actually has 461 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: been practicing. So that's that's really that'd be huge Yeah, 462 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: that'd be huge for the Packers. I mean, we'll see, 463 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:52,159 Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. 464 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 2: Yeah, Feeling I think eight for eighty two in a 465 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 2: touchdown the first game. He's the security blanket, so Jefferson's 466 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 2: the big play guy. But you want to have your 467 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 2: options against the Packers. I certainly feel much better if 468 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,320 Speaker 2: Feeling goes out there. But we'll see. I like the Vikings, 469 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,880 Speaker 2: We'll see if my guys can pull it out. 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Thanks so much for listening. 501 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 3: Let's get back to the show. 502 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 2: All right, best bets again like usual, just a quick 503 00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 2: radio version of these. You can read more at see 504 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 2: our videos and articles and everything check out the app Bahiem. 505 00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 2: What's your first best bet for Week seven ten? 506 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 1: Look, I'm gonna go with the Washington football team plus 507 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:07,840 Speaker 1: three and a half. They've been ravaged by COVID nineteen Obviously. 508 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,920 Speaker 1: Last week they probably played the worst game I've seen 509 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,400 Speaker 1: any team play this season, and a couple of weeks 510 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 1: ago they had COVID losses against the Eagles. They were 511 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 1: missing guys on both sides of the ball, they didn't 512 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: have the starting quarterback, and they still played this Eagles 513 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,520 Speaker 1: team relatively tough. I think you mentioned it in your article. 514 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:29,200 Speaker 1: The Eagles will be without Miles Sanders. Jayalen Hurts is 515 00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: still a little banged up. He only ran twice last week. 516 00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 1: Look the Eagles, they they dominated the Giants. It's not 517 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,400 Speaker 1: like they beat anybody good. Just look ahead line was 518 00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,920 Speaker 1: Washington Football Team minus two and a half. So I 519 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: don't know how in the world you get to the 520 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 1: Eagles land almost four points on the road. Look, teams 521 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 1: will lose by thirty five or more. Are sixty seven, 522 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 1: forty and five sixty three percent against the Spress in 523 00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 1: two thousand and three. I got a back this strump. 524 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,960 Speaker 2: I almost took the Eagle on the look ahead. I 525 00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:03,080 Speaker 2: mentioned them last week when we were doing the pod. 526 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 2: I like the Eagles to get the win here. It's 527 00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,439 Speaker 2: a rough spot, though. I'm with you on this. The 528 00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 2: more I looked into it, I ended up picking Washington 529 00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,159 Speaker 2: to cover here. It's too many points and it's just 530 00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:15,400 Speaker 2: it's the line has moved too much from what it 531 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 2: was even a couple weeks ago when these teams played. 532 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 2: Washington a goat to throw out a little bit of 533 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 2: the recent numbers. With the way that they've been missing 534 00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 2: their COVID guys, they're all back now, so I think 535 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 2: it's the right number to play in a division game. 536 00:26:25,960 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 2: Washington's still in the playoffs too, in the hunt, so 537 00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,160 Speaker 2: I like that one. I'm gonna take a risky pick here. 538 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:35,199 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Miami plus three and a half 539 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,719 Speaker 2: in Tennessee, and I know it is a spot that 540 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 2: a lot of us, even at Action Network, are looking 541 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 2: to fade Miami after this seven game win streak. I'm 542 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,920 Speaker 2: looking to fade Tennessee. If you look at the last 543 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:51,480 Speaker 2: six weeks, Titans offense by EPA twenty ninth in the NFL, 544 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:55,000 Speaker 2: twenty ninth passing offense in that span, the Dolphins are 545 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,879 Speaker 2: number two defensively, number one against the pass. And I 546 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:00,720 Speaker 2: know they haven't played anyone. They haven't played a good quarterbacks, 547 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,440 Speaker 2: any good passing games. We're still not. Ryan Tannehill not good. 548 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill has not been good this season. He's a 549 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 2: turnover machine. We know the Dolphins bring huge blitz pressure. 550 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 2: I think that's gonna lead to more turnovers. This is 551 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,600 Speaker 2: Tannehill's first game against Miami. You know that was his 552 00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 2: team for so long, and I think that they're gonna 553 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,880 Speaker 2: have something special for him here. These teams are both 554 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:24,720 Speaker 2: fighting for position. The Titans are still in the race 555 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 2: for the one seed. Get out of here. The Titans 556 00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 2: are not the one seed. Two was playing well. I 557 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 2: trust to more than I trust Ryan Tannehill. 558 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: Right now. 559 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,600 Speaker 2: I don't trust him a ton, But given the two, 560 00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 2: I just think the Titans are going to lose the 561 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,160 Speaker 2: passing game on both sides of the ball. Miami during 562 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 2: the seven game wins streak eleven point seven points per 563 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 2: game allowed, so I think it's probably a low scoring game. 564 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 2: I don't love Miami here to get the win, but 565 00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,919 Speaker 2: at plus three and a half, I'm just gonna take 566 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,199 Speaker 2: the cover. I'm not gonna play the money line, but 567 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 2: I think we got a shott even like a two 568 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 2: or three point game here. Even if the Dolphins lose, 569 00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,439 Speaker 2: they might still cover, going on a LM and taking Miami. 570 00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: And I don't like this, but I'm sorry I can't 571 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,399 Speaker 1: get there with you. I'm actually I think I might 572 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: be on the other side of this one. I mean, 573 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 1: the Dolphins just you said they haven't played anybody, but 574 00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 1: they played the Texans, the Ravens, the Jets, the Panthers, 575 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,479 Speaker 1: the Giants, the Jets, the Saints, a Saints team that 576 00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:19,480 Speaker 1: was had Ian book into two backup offensive tackles. I mean, 577 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,640 Speaker 1: these teams are twenty ninth, nineteen, twenty six, twenty eight, 578 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: twenty seventh, twenty six, and fourteenth and dvo way. The 579 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,479 Speaker 1: only team that's top eighteen is the Saints, and like 580 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:32,920 Speaker 1: I said before, they'd start a backup quarterback, third string 581 00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,959 Speaker 1: quarterback and just missing their tackle. So look, this Miami 582 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,959 Speaker 1: Dolphins team really, really struggled against the Jets, and I 583 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:44,280 Speaker 1: think it's actually when you look at the Titans, a 584 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: lot of EPA numbers were misleading because they were missing 585 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 1: aj Brown in a lot and you could see the 586 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,000 Speaker 1: difference in their passing game against the San Francisco forty 587 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:55,360 Speaker 1: nine ers. Of course, one of the big things that 588 00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 1: they have in their advantage is they still run the ball. 589 00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 1: And I know Derrick Henry isn't out there, but they're 590 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 1: still capable of running the ball. We've seen this team 591 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 1: put up two hundred york rushing days even after Derrick 592 00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 1: Henry was out of the lineup, and the Dolphins can't 593 00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 1: stop to run. So I think this is a situation 594 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 1: where you're selling high on the Dolphins and you have 595 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: a good spot. When the Titans they had a Thursday 596 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 1: night when they got extended rest, we got the Dolphins 597 00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,320 Speaker 1: on short rest. I love the Titans in this spot. 598 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 1: I think I think this is the ideal spot to 599 00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,080 Speaker 1: finally sell high on this Dolphins team who've just been 600 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: beating up really really bad competition. 601 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I get it, I get all that. I think 602 00:29:37,080 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 2: that Stucky and Ray Bahn love the Titans in this 603 00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 2: spot as well. I think Simon on the Favorites podcast 604 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 2: is on the Titans. It looks like this is a 605 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 2: public underdog spot for the Dolphins too, So I guess 606 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:49,800 Speaker 2: I'm back. I'm back going square. I'm with the Dolphin 607 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,320 Speaker 2: public on this one. You know, you mentioned all the 608 00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,960 Speaker 2: DVOA is for the teams the Dolphins have faced. You 609 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,280 Speaker 2: didn't mention the Titans. They're in that same range of 610 00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,080 Speaker 2: teams that are not very good. The Titans are not 611 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:02,560 Speaker 2: even top twenty DVOA. So I just I don't think 612 00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 2: this team is very good. I just think the Titans 613 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:06,840 Speaker 2: kind of stinked. I think it's not a great team. 614 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 2: They're not even locked into the playoffs yet. I wouldn't 615 00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,040 Speaker 2: be shocked personally if the Titans lost this game and 616 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 2: lost to the Texans and maybe still miss the playoffs 617 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 2: or drop out of the division race. So I just 618 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,560 Speaker 2: this is a bet on Miami a bit. But it's 619 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,760 Speaker 2: a chance to fade Tennessee where I've been looking for 620 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 2: chances for that that game Thursday night against the forty 621 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,040 Speaker 2: nine ers. They had no business being in that game. 622 00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 2: They were they looked out of it. They should have 623 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 2: been down by like twenty four and a half and 624 00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 2: the Niners gave that In a way, I think to 625 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 2: me that is buying us some value on Tennessee by saying, oh, look, 626 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 2: the record's still good here. So I'm on a lamb. 627 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,160 Speaker 2: I'm going to Miami. What's your other best bet for 628 00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:45,600 Speaker 2: this week? 629 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,320 Speaker 1: Look, I'm going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus thirteen 630 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 1: and a half. I gave this out the other day. 631 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 1: Didn't have Mike Gavans, didn't have Chris Godwin, didn't have Leonardinet, 632 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 1: still scored thirty points on a better defense. Now they 633 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,200 Speaker 1: gott to face the Jets dead last EPA could play 634 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: thirty if a success rate. And I think the more 635 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:06,840 Speaker 1: important thing is, even without these guys being necessarily healthy 636 00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 1: in the secondary, Zach Wilson is going to struggle against 637 00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 1: this defensive line to be rting under pressure forty six 638 00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:19,600 Speaker 1: point three turnover worthy throw rate almost four percent. I mean, look, 639 00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 1: Tom Bowles is gonna blitz Zach Wilson into oblivion. Tom 640 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 1: Brady has owned it Yets for god knows when, so 641 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 1: I'm laying at thirteen and a half. I think it's 642 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:34,640 Speaker 1: one of those spreads. It's probably a little bit. 643 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 2: Too sure, so I can't join you on this one. 644 00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 2: And it's because Tampa is on the road here. We 645 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 2: know the Box have struggled on the road all season, 646 00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,560 Speaker 2: really both years with Brady, they just haven't been a 647 00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 2: great road team. And then just looking at the trends, 648 00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 2: home dogs of ten to fourteen points, like the Jets 649 00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 2: are here fifty six and forty two against the spreads, 650 00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,400 Speaker 2: so fifty seven percent cover rate. December or later, those 651 00:31:56,440 --> 00:32:00,160 Speaker 2: home dogs are sixty three percent cover rate. So we've 652 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 2: got we've got four games. I think this week with 653 00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 2: a huge favorite. The Bucks are the team I'm fading 654 00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 2: in the group. I don't think the Bucks are gonna 655 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 2: lose here. Tom's gonna be at the Jets. But just 656 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 2: Tampa to me, I think is just going through the 657 00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,200 Speaker 2: motions and getting to the playoffs. They're missing so many guys. 658 00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 2: You mentioned that that the blitzing that does make me 659 00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 2: pause here. I don't like that against Todd Bowles. But 660 00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:22,840 Speaker 2: Shaq Barrett's out too, Like they just there. This is 661 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,880 Speaker 2: a hospital, like you said, like they got guys misting everywhere. 662 00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,000 Speaker 2: I just I'm fading the Box. I'm gonna I think 663 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:31,400 Speaker 2: that they know the bye week is gone and they're 664 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,080 Speaker 2: tweeting this last few weeks as their bye week. I 665 00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 2: think they're just gonna do what they need to do, 666 00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 2: do the old Bill Belichick thing and just like grind 667 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,200 Speaker 2: out a win, run the ball, keep the clock, move 668 00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:43,000 Speaker 2: and get out of here and get to next week 669 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 2: and get to the playoffs. So I think the Bucks 670 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 2: do win. I'm not worried about that, but uh, I'm 671 00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 2: not going to back the Bucks. I can't really back 672 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 2: the Jets that much because it's the Jets, and you 673 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:55,240 Speaker 2: scared me off with the Todd Bowles stuff. You're right 674 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,040 Speaker 2: about that, but I think the Jets are the better number. Here. 675 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 2: My other best bet, I'm with the Steelers three and 676 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:04,120 Speaker 2: a half at home against the Browns. We talked about 677 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,600 Speaker 2: that one on the look Ahead Classic Mike Tomlin underdog spot. 678 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,720 Speaker 2: Seventy two cover rate as an underdog week five or 679 00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:14,000 Speaker 2: after twelve two and a one as an underdog at 680 00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:17,440 Speaker 2: home there come Stefanski one and nine against the spread 681 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 2: in the division. I just think there's a classic spot 682 00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 2: to back Pittsburgh here. We'll talk about that one more 683 00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:26,160 Speaker 2: on our next podcast pre you for Monday. So we'll 684 00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 2: leave it there and I'll fill in a few more 685 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 2: details there, but that is our best bets. Let's hit 686 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:34,240 Speaker 2: our look ahead for week eighteen before we hit the road. 687 00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 2: Here Hot rap. 688 00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,640 Speaker 1: Bo seventy ice rights, ice cream. 689 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,040 Speaker 2: Rahim, We're looking ahead. One last look ahead. What do 690 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:46,080 Speaker 2: you got for Week eighteen? 691 00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to go with the Pittsburgh Stellers plus six 692 00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 1: and a half to play the Baltimore Ravens, and I'm 693 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,560 Speaker 1: going to continue fading this Ravens team, and a big 694 00:33:56,600 --> 00:34:00,480 Speaker 1: part of it is their secondary, which is all in 695 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,400 Speaker 1: the hospital. I mean, look, you're gonna have to deal 696 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:09,399 Speaker 1: with Deontay Johnson, Chase Claypool. And this is possibly Big 697 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,280 Speaker 1: Benjamin's last game. 698 00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 2: Ever, Big Benjamin, I love it. 699 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, this could be his last game ever. Playoff spot 700 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 1: on the line. Ravens can't stop a nosebleed defensive. It's 701 00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:24,200 Speaker 1: probably worst secondary in the league at this point. Six 702 00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:28,520 Speaker 1: and a half between these two teams. This is typically 703 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:31,200 Speaker 1: a three point game either way, and I'm not sure 704 00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:34,520 Speaker 1: that these two teams are that far all first matchup, 705 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:37,600 Speaker 1: the Steelers one and the Ravens probably should have won 706 00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 1: that game and probably should have covered. But obviously you 707 00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 1: had Lamar Jackson throwing some interceptions. Maybe Lamar will be back. 708 00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:45,719 Speaker 1: We don't know how he's gonna play, but I mean, 709 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:48,040 Speaker 1: the way the secondary is going, I'm gonna be faining them, 710 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,479 Speaker 1: especially in Big Benjamin possible last game. So i gotta 711 00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 1: roll with six and a. 712 00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:56,040 Speaker 2: Half possible possible last game and loss and loss the 713 00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,359 Speaker 2: Steelers eaken of the playoffs and give us one more 714 00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 2: last game. So that's my play. I'm with you all 715 00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,799 Speaker 2: over Pittsburgh here. I love it. Pittsburgh is thirteen to 716 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,880 Speaker 2: one to win the division. If the Steelers win out 717 00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 2: and if the Bengals lose to the Chiefs. Like we said, 718 00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,239 Speaker 2: we're both on the Chiefs and that one we like 719 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,080 Speaker 2: the Steelers' home on Monday Night against the Browns. If 720 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:19,000 Speaker 2: they win their win here, then there are Bengals lost 721 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:21,719 Speaker 2: to the Browns and week eighteen away from winning the division. 722 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,839 Speaker 2: And so thirteen to one, I'm going to add on 723 00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:27,120 Speaker 2: that's just kind of parlaying all of our positions we 724 00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,600 Speaker 2: got here. So I'm with you, great spot to back 725 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 2: the Steelers. I'm going disgusting on my look ahead pick here. 726 00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 2: It's gross. It's so gross. It's because Week eighteen is 727 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 2: all about situational I think that there's a chance this 728 00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 2: line drops by like ten points if the starters decide 729 00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:48,880 Speaker 2: not to really play. I'm taking the Carolina Panthers plus 730 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:53,600 Speaker 2: sixteen and a half in Tampa Bay, and it's all situational. 731 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,239 Speaker 2: The Bucks, basically at this point, they're not playing for 732 00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:58,960 Speaker 2: the one seed anymore. The only way they get the 733 00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,640 Speaker 2: one seed is they got to win out, which they will, 734 00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:04,839 Speaker 2: but they've got to have two Packers losses. So if 735 00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:07,880 Speaker 2: the Packers beat the Vikings Sunday night, it's over. The 736 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 2: Bucks can't get the one seed anymore. They need a 737 00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:13,359 Speaker 2: Cowboys loss, they need a Rams loss, and they got 738 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,279 Speaker 2: to have all the rest that happen. And again, I 739 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:18,800 Speaker 2: just don't think that the Bucks think they're getting the 740 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,719 Speaker 2: one seed, and I don't think they really give a 741 00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:22,600 Speaker 2: rip about whether the two, three, or four seed. The 742 00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,399 Speaker 2: division's locked up. They got the home game. They know 743 00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 2: if they're healthy they can hang with anyone. Just get healthy, 744 00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,879 Speaker 2: rest Tom. I think there's a chance that Tom gets 745 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,560 Speaker 2: announced as sitting this one out. I think there's a 746 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,399 Speaker 2: chance that he maybe plays a series. I think even 747 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,319 Speaker 2: if that doesn't happen, we might get to halftime. We 748 00:36:41,360 --> 00:36:44,440 Speaker 2: know they'll schedule all these games together, and then okay, 749 00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,200 Speaker 2: we're at halftime. Now the Packers are up twenty five 750 00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,319 Speaker 2: on the lines at the half. Now the Bucks pull 751 00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 2: the starters. I just think there's almost no way the 752 00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:56,080 Speaker 2: Bucks are going to really care about this game. And yeah, 753 00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 2: all their guys are missing. Get Tom in bubble wrap, 754 00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,920 Speaker 2: get him of the playoffs. Panthers sixteen and a half, 755 00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:05,279 Speaker 2: I don't know. I might even play a little bit 756 00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:07,280 Speaker 2: of money line just because I'm not sure this result 757 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,440 Speaker 2: is gonna matter for them, and it's just such a 758 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 2: high line. The Panthers are terrible. This is not back 759 00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,279 Speaker 2: in the Panther. Is this just playing the number? I 760 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,879 Speaker 2: look for those spots Denver at Denver against Kansas City 761 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,360 Speaker 2: is another one. Philly against the Cowboys. You mentioned that one. 762 00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,600 Speaker 2: Those are again both spots where we could see those 763 00:37:24,680 --> 00:37:27,040 Speaker 2: favorite teams pull off the dog or call off the 764 00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,040 Speaker 2: dogs a little bit. But the Panther sixteen and a half, 765 00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,200 Speaker 2: get out of here. Campa Bay is not going to 766 00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:32,960 Speaker 2: be trying the one. 767 00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:34,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that. I think that's a good I 768 00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,640 Speaker 1: think that's a really good spot to back an underdog. 769 00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:42,520 Speaker 1: I mean, body's underdogs in week well eighteen now, obvious 770 00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:47,080 Speaker 1: see Week seventeen. They tend to overperform. Only concern I 771 00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,160 Speaker 1: have about the Panthers. It does feel like they quit 772 00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,960 Speaker 1: to a certain extent. But I mean other than that, 773 00:37:53,360 --> 00:37:56,400 Speaker 1: if they're not playing for anything, then this number is 774 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 1: gonna come down. It's too high and you're gonna get 775 00:37:58,040 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 1: the best of it. So I'm not mad. 776 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:02,360 Speaker 2: At Yeah, Well, at least we got Cam Newton out here. 777 00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,480 Speaker 2: It looks like Sam Darnold will be starting, but who knows. 778 00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 2: By week eighteen, maybe we'll get all three quarterbacks out there. 779 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,200 Speaker 2: That's going to wrap it up for the Action Network Podcast. 780 00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:13,120 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. Don't forget to download the app and 781 00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,160 Speaker 2: make sure to rate and review the podcast Apple and 782 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 2: Spotify where it is now able to be reviewed. Don't 783 00:38:19,640 --> 00:38:21,799 Speaker 2: forget to listen to Stuckying and Rebound on a six pack. 784 00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,120 Speaker 2: Raheem and I are back first thing Monday to wrap 785 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 2: up Week seventeen and get you some recap and looking 786 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 2: ahead at a final week of football for Raheem Palmer, 787 00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,239 Speaker 2: I'm Brandon Anderson. This has been the Action Network Podcast. 788 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,799 Speaker 2: Happy New Year, enjoy your weekend, and we will see 789 00:38:38,800 --> 00:39:00,200 Speaker 2: you in twenty twenty two.