WEBVTT - KKR's Founders Exit Co-CEO Roles

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all furnessing the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one d and twenty countries. You

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com. You can also listen to our radio show

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<v Speaker 1>at two pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch

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<v Speaker 1>us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We're talking about

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<v Speaker 1>some of the COVID headlines. I always like to remind

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<v Speaker 1>everyone about the COVID cases. The global COVID cases count

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<v Speaker 1>topping two hundred thirty seven point nine million, deaths tim

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<v Speaker 1>exceeding four point eight million, and then we've got more

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<v Speaker 1>than six and a half billion COVID vaccine shots given

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<v Speaker 1>at the same time. Here in the United States, we

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<v Speaker 1>are seeing a steady decline of cases from at least

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<v Speaker 1>a peak this time around last month, where cases are

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<v Speaker 1>down under one hundred thousand a day on average, which

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<v Speaker 1>still is too many, but it's going in the right direction. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>The trend line really important. So let's see what Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Ian los Peter has to say about a clinical professor

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<v Speaker 1>of medicine at n y U Landgown. We check in

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<v Speaker 1>with him every week. He joins us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>in New York City, Ian, how are you doing well? Thanks,

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<v Speaker 1>Carol and Tim. Happy Monday. I hope you guys are

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<v Speaker 1>safe and sound. Yeah, same for you. Um, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know what's top of mind for you when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to COVID in the vaccine today. So we're definitely seeing

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of patients asking about the third booster shot,

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<v Speaker 1>and certainly that's approved for fiser for people who are

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<v Speaker 1>older or immuno compromised. We're waiting really to expand that,

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<v Speaker 1>and certainly we're waiting to hear from the FDA and

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<v Speaker 1>CDC on booster shots for MADERNA and J and J.

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<v Speaker 1>The water is a little muddied because Scandinavia has had

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<v Speaker 1>some concerns about younger people with maderna because there is

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<v Speaker 1>a small incident, small but definite incidents of some myocarditis

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<v Speaker 1>and paracardis what is so interesting. Dr los Bader is

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<v Speaker 1>my brother who's in his mid thirties and lives in Seattle.

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<v Speaker 1>He works at a school. He qualified and got a

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<v Speaker 1>booster over the weekend UH Fiser booster. But people here

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<v Speaker 1>in New York, for example, who might you know, might

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<v Speaker 1>be twenty years older than him, aren't yet clear for

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<v Speaker 1>a booster. So there's not really guidance that's coming from

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<v Speaker 1>the federal government about what to do. Right, We're hoping

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<v Speaker 1>for a little more guidance. A little more guidance would

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<v Speaker 1>be useful. And I think part of the reason that

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<v Speaker 1>there is unclear guidance is there's a lot in the

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<v Speaker 1>UH in the salad. You know, we certainly know that

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<v Speaker 1>older people are higher risk, and there are certain groups

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're compromised and people with diabetes, hypertension, obesity,

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<v Speaker 1>and so forth that can benefit. And we know from

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<v Speaker 1>the data in Israel that the vaccines, the Fiser vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>certainly has had less um effectiveness over time, that basically, UH,

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<v Speaker 1>your antibody levels dropped, and that at least for a

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<v Speaker 1>short time after a third vaccine, the antibodies go up

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<v Speaker 1>significantly and the benefit goes up significantly. We don't have

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<v Speaker 1>really long term data, how you know, we think that

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<v Speaker 1>that will create a more durable response. So there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of data to kind of crunch, especially with young

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<v Speaker 1>people obviously, the benefit versus potential risk. Most of my

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<v Speaker 1>patients who are older or immuno compromised who have had

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<v Speaker 1>FISER are either getting a booster shot around this time

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<v Speaker 1>or I've told them that I think it's reasonable to

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<v Speaker 1>do that. Well, it's interesting too, you know, after our conversation, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was our conversation that we had in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of who should get the boosters, and I talked about,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, Tim and I are getting ready to do

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<v Speaker 1>some traveling to the West coast. I'm getting ready to

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<v Speaker 1>do some traveling for work out of the country, and

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<v Speaker 1>I did look into boosters and it seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>and I am someone who doesn't want to jump the

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<v Speaker 1>line until they say it's ready, um, but they seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be very much monitoring when you got your last shot,

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<v Speaker 1>and you can't do it before six months from your

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<v Speaker 1>shot at least. That's you know what I'm I'm hearing

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<v Speaker 1>from hospitals and so on. If you try to, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of do something on an app Um, is that

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<v Speaker 1>the right way we should go about it, or if

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<v Speaker 1>you can get a booster. I mean we hear stories

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<v Speaker 1>Tim and I and people just walking into a pharmacy

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<v Speaker 1>and getting it, So both are true. Uh, usually people

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<v Speaker 1>are well protected. After six months, we're really not seeing

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<v Speaker 1>a real diminution in antibody levels. And certainly people who

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<v Speaker 1>do get COVID, you know, in that range. Um, usually

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<v Speaker 1>you're not very sick at all, they'll have a mild cold,

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<v Speaker 1>but certainly over six months or if you're compromised in

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<v Speaker 1>the benefit really outweighs that. There are a number of

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<v Speaker 1>patients who are cutting the line. And uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this is why it's somewhat confusing. We've got a group

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<v Speaker 1>of people who are very aggressive and and the pharmacies

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<v Speaker 1>really don't have the resources to double check are you

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<v Speaker 1>really I mean compromised you because you don't order it,

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<v Speaker 1>you can just go into the pharmacy. Obviously, there are

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<v Speaker 1>you know, with Southern Border and so forth, a number

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<v Speaker 1>were people coming in who we don't even know their

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<v Speaker 1>status and potentially either infected or could be infected. So

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<v Speaker 1>you've got all these groups of people, some who were

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<v Speaker 1>very worried and trying to be fully vaccinated and and

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<v Speaker 1>some not so really what I would say, if you've

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<v Speaker 1>had your vaccine within six months, your odds of a

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<v Speaker 1>problem are very low, and there's no reason why if

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<v Speaker 1>you're traveling and uh, you feel that you're not feeling well,

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<v Speaker 1>you get a test, get a swab. Monotone lantibodies are available. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>they're really Hopefully the Mark drug will be approved soon,

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<v Speaker 1>So there really are options if when you're traveling you think,

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<v Speaker 1>oh my gosh, I'm feeling well, that's a really good point. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>speaking of the of Mark's COVID I want to touch

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<v Speaker 1>on astra Zenica just in the last minute that we have,

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<v Speaker 1>because the company's antibody cocktail was effective at preventing mild

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<v Speaker 1>or moderate COVID infections from worsening in a study that

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<v Speaker 1>bolsters the drug maker's ambitions for the product. Just in

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<v Speaker 1>the last thirty seconds we have with you, Dr LUs Bader,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you see us moving from a prevention to

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<v Speaker 1>you a treatment as we can turn the corner on

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<v Speaker 1>at least this part of the pandemic. You know, well,

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<v Speaker 1>we we have to view this is three legs of

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<v Speaker 1>the stool, you know, mitigation methods and prevention methods. I

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<v Speaker 1>think certainly vaccines are reasonable. We do need to come

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<v Speaker 1>up with some pills, and overall health will protect you

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<v Speaker 1>to some degree. I'm not sure giving people antibodies passive antibodies, UH,

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<v Speaker 1>to prevent disease would make sense unless you're a household contact.

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<v Speaker 1>If you're in the household, you've been vaccinated. Someone is sick, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>Perhaps then it makes sense to say, let's check the

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<v Speaker 1>spread by giving antibodies before someone gets sick. Um. I

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<v Speaker 1>think we need more data on that. Hey got ten seconds.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Less better, what's the non COVID question you get

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<v Speaker 1>most asked right now? Uh? People are afraid about screening.

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<v Speaker 1>Shall I get my colonoscopy? Shall I get my mammograms?

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<v Speaker 1>Its face? People will have to be tested before they

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<v Speaker 1>do that. Gotta gotta run. Dr e LUs better take

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<v Speaker 1>us out to the ball game, where we will increasingly

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<v Speaker 1>see changes in attempts and even robot umps to fix

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<v Speaker 1>baseball's board and problem to him. Joining us now is

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<v Speaker 1>Joel Webber, editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He's with us

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<v Speaker 1>in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Also joining us is

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<v Speaker 1>Ira Bootleg, Global business reporter for Bloomberg News. Joining us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone, from New Jersey Joel Baseball has got

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<v Speaker 1>a problem when it comes to speed and when it's

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<v Speaker 1>come to action. What are they doing about it? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been a theme for years now, UM and and

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<v Speaker 1>there have been many attempts at it um. But what

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<v Speaker 1>IRA's story really looks at is this little test case

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<v Speaker 1>that they have in UM in a league that is

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<v Speaker 1>called the Atlantic League. And it is literally where um

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<v Speaker 1>MLB will kind of like try a ton of different

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<v Speaker 1>stuff just to see if it helps make the games

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit more exciting. Now they can't and they

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<v Speaker 1>can't make things look like you know, last night Red

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<v Speaker 1>Sox game, but they can actually kind of institutional license stuff.

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<v Speaker 1>And interestingly enough, the players aren't unionized, so they can't

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<v Speaker 1>really resist. So Ira, what what kind of kool aid

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<v Speaker 1>has been forced upon the Atlantic League players? Uh, it's

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<v Speaker 1>been a grab bag. They started in ten. Last season

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<v Speaker 1>was called off because of the pandemic, so it really

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<v Speaker 1>got going this year. But they have allowed pitch hitters

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<v Speaker 1>to try to steal first base on any count when

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<v Speaker 1>the ball get by the catcher. They have made the

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<v Speaker 1>bases three inches bigger, eighteen inches by eighteen instant of

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen by fifteen, they have perhaps the two biggest ones

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<v Speaker 1>are an automated ball strike system or robot pump where

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<v Speaker 1>they called ball and strike call is delivered to the

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<v Speaker 1>human umpire's ear. Uh, and it's a Doppler radar that

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<v Speaker 1>actually establishes the strike zone. And and they this year

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<v Speaker 1>they moved the pitching rubber back by one foot from

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<v Speaker 1>the sort of sacred sixty six inches to six six

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<v Speaker 1>inches for the last couple of months. But did it help,

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<v Speaker 1>did anything? Yeah, they are seeing some stuff work. So

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<v Speaker 1>there's like stealing first base. Nobody wanted to try it

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<v Speaker 1>because they wanted to just to test their luck in

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<v Speaker 1>there at bat um. But the other stuff is showing

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<v Speaker 1>modest effects of the kind they're looking for because they

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<v Speaker 1>don't want it to be jarring. You know, there's stuff

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<v Speaker 1>they said they could have done, like making the ball bigger,

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<v Speaker 1>or adding players on the field or you know there's

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<v Speaker 1>or taking a player off the field that you could do,

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<v Speaker 1>but they don't want to bastardize the game. So they

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<v Speaker 1>are uh seeing modest effects in the bigger bases. And

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<v Speaker 1>and so far, moving the pitching mound back has actually

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<v Speaker 1>raised contact rates and batting averages, which is really what

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<v Speaker 1>they're after. They want more plays where fielders and base

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<v Speaker 1>runners have to move. Um. So that's that, and they

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<v Speaker 1>want to speed the game up. So there's also pure

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<v Speaker 1>mountain visits, which is something the Major League Baseball took

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<v Speaker 1>from the Atlantic League. That whole rule where have to

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<v Speaker 1>finish in eating our phase three batters that started in

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<v Speaker 1>the Atlantic and moved to the major leagues. And the

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<v Speaker 1>idea is to find more stuff like that that helps

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<v Speaker 1>at the margins. Did anyone yell at a robot um

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<v Speaker 1>this year? So my favorite piece of all this is

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<v Speaker 1>ranked by Ala, the former Minnesota Twins pitcher is now

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<v Speaker 1>a pitching coach in the Atlantic League at the High

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<v Speaker 1>Point Rockers, and he hates all of this and um.

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<v Speaker 1>He was the first person ever thrown out for arguing

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<v Speaker 1>with the robot arm. Back in first game that he

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<v Speaker 1>had with it, he went ballistic when it issued a

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<v Speaker 1>five pitch walk and the umpire said that, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I would talk to him that the umpire from that night,

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<v Speaker 1>and he said, you know, he was yelling at me,

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<v Speaker 1>and I said, look, what do you want me to do?

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<v Speaker 1>You know, I'm trying to do my job here. And

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<v Speaker 1>then I didn't satisfy Yola, so he had to throw

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<v Speaker 1>him out of the game. So, yeah, there're but a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of the fans actually don't need to notice another

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<v Speaker 1>umpire talk to you said, there are some who are savvy,

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<v Speaker 1>and they will hackle him by saying, change the batteries

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<v Speaker 1>or uh, you know, call tech support. But but for

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<v Speaker 1>the most part of fans don't actually seem to notice

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<v Speaker 1>because if you're not looking for it's very hard to see. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>and let's get to the reason why all of this

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<v Speaker 1>is happening. I mean, I remember watching games with my

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<v Speaker 1>dad growing up, and you know, they were certain length.

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<v Speaker 1>They've gotten really long, and I mean play is slow,

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<v Speaker 1>and when you're competing with you know, everybody's eyeball, especially

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<v Speaker 1>a younger generation, you know, who are used to fast

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<v Speaker 1>moving stuff and quick videos and so on and so forth. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>baseball's pretty boring. They got to worry about their future audience. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a really interesting case because nothing really changed about

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<v Speaker 1>the game. It's just the way the game was played.

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<v Speaker 1>They basically figured out with this moneyball revolution that your

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<v Speaker 1>best hope as a hitter was to focus on a

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<v Speaker 1>home run or a walk, because if you hit it

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<v Speaker 1>in the field. You never know, you know, there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of random luck involved in a home run was

0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 1>an automatic, you know, way to score and and for pictures, similarly,

0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:59.080
<v Speaker 1>your best hope was to avoid contact and to stry

0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:01.600
<v Speaker 1>to strike people out. So everybody got obsessed with the

0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:04.880
<v Speaker 1>three what they call true outcomes, the walk, the home run,

0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:08.120
<v Speaker 1>the strikeout, and those are all plays on which basically

0:12:08.120 --> 0:12:11.320
<v Speaker 1>nobody runs anywhere. Um And so now you've got, you know,

0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:13.920
<v Speaker 1>second basement. You can hit forty home runs and everyone's

0:12:13.920 --> 0:12:16.560
<v Speaker 1>trying to hit a home run almost every bat, and

0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:18.400
<v Speaker 1>the game just kind of grinds to a halt. And

0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:20.960
<v Speaker 1>they've got a situation now where it's four minutes between

0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:24.040
<v Speaker 1>batted ball events as they call them. The strikeout rate

0:12:24.120 --> 0:12:25.800
<v Speaker 1>is like twice as high as it used to be

0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:29.439
<v Speaker 1>forty years ago. So that is what they're trying to fix.

0:12:29.480 --> 0:12:33.360
<v Speaker 1>They're trying to figure out how to reincentivized players to

0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.960
<v Speaker 1>try things that have gone out of fashion. So what's

0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:41.000
<v Speaker 1>in it for the Atlantic League? Because obviously, you know,

0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.920
<v Speaker 1>there's there's maybe an incentive from a fans perspective that

0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:48.960
<v Speaker 1>I don't have to agonize through a longer game. But

0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:50.960
<v Speaker 1>but you know what, why would a team do this.

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:54.920
<v Speaker 1>The Atlantic League is really interesting because it coincided with

0:12:55.000 --> 0:12:57.960
<v Speaker 1>baseball restructuring all of its minor leagues and getting rid

0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.000
<v Speaker 1>of a bunch of affiliates, cutting down in the number

0:13:00.000 --> 0:13:02.440
<v Speaker 1>of players the teams can carry in their farm systems,

0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:05.520
<v Speaker 1>and creating these things they called partner leagues, which the

0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.480
<v Speaker 1>Atlantic League is one of them, and they are basically

0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 1>a kind of extra auxiliary labor waiting. These are independent

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:15.800
<v Speaker 1>baseball players, but there's a regular way for minor league

0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.160
<v Speaker 1>or for major league teams to buy talent from them. Uh.

0:13:19.200 --> 0:13:21.960
<v Speaker 1>And so what happened in The biggest thing that they

0:13:22.040 --> 0:13:24.600
<v Speaker 1>got was just data about all of their players because

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.840
<v Speaker 1>there's this track Man device tracking every batted ball, every

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:29.600
<v Speaker 1>throne ball, which is what they used to do the

0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:32.400
<v Speaker 1>robot humps. They now have a huge stream of data

0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.160
<v Speaker 1>about all the players because they put one of these

0:13:34.200 --> 0:13:37.360
<v Speaker 1>track Man devices into every ballpark, So the teams all

0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 1>know everything about their players. But more importantly for the players,

0:13:40.200 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>major league scouts don't have to show up to see this.

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>They can see everything about the spin rate of some

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.280
<v Speaker 1>Atlantic League picture just by you know, checking in on

0:13:47.280 --> 0:13:50.480
<v Speaker 1>that data stream. So it's advertising for the players. It's

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:52.960
<v Speaker 1>also advertising for the league. You know, writers like myself

0:13:53.000 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 1>and others come poking around because they're interested in this,

0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:58.800
<v Speaker 1>and it raises the profile of the Atlantic League. So

0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:00.480
<v Speaker 1>if we think about the Atlantic League as a test

0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:04.079
<v Speaker 1>case or as a way to experiment with these new changes,

0:14:04.280 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 1>where does the collective bargaining agreement that MLB has with

0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:10.679
<v Speaker 1>the players union come into Actually think about what kind

0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:14.280
<v Speaker 1>of changes could be adopted by the MLB. Yeah, that's

0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:17.960
<v Speaker 1>a really interesting thing because you've got really poor relations

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 1>right now between players, the players union, and the league.

0:14:21.000 --> 0:14:22.720
<v Speaker 1>And this is mainly to do with nothing with the

0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:25.400
<v Speaker 1>rule changes. It's with pay money, of course, and and

0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 1>that's the collective bargaining agreement expires in December, and everybody

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 1>expects these negotiations to be really difficult, and I think

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 1>the way the rule changes will play into that is

0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:37.960
<v Speaker 1>that it will become leverage for the players. You know,

0:14:38.000 --> 0:14:40.240
<v Speaker 1>they will be able to say if you want us

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 1>to change our working conditions in this way, and that

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.040
<v Speaker 1>you need to do things that increase the pot of

0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 1>money or even this. You know, there's a good chance

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.720
<v Speaker 1>that the National League will adopt a designated hitter this

0:14:50.840 --> 0:14:53.200
<v Speaker 1>coming year. And I think that is partly about just

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.560
<v Speaker 1>creating jobs for veteran sluggers who can't play in the

0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.440
<v Speaker 1>field anymore. So I think that's the kind of way

0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:01.320
<v Speaker 1>this will run. And you put out that the sports

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:03.440
<v Speaker 1>betting industry is really pouring a lot of money into

0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.000
<v Speaker 1>all the league's sports leagues that are out there. Um

0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.320
<v Speaker 1>Imra Boodway, thank you so much. Great to hear from

0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.440
<v Speaker 1>your global business reporter ut Bloomberg News. Check out his

0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:12.800
<v Speaker 1>story in the upcoming issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Told

0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:16.200
<v Speaker 1>Webber editor Bloomberg Business Week. Here in our interactive broker studio,

0:15:16.360 --> 0:15:20.320
<v Speaker 1>this is Bloomberg Radio. This is the Big Take, the

0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:24.560
<v Speaker 1>best of Bloomberg's in depth, original reporting from around the globe.

0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:27.640
<v Speaker 1>We're running on a financial system that's running on old technology.

0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:31.680
<v Speaker 1>We're seeing host places reach fresh record ties. What unfolds

0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:34.040
<v Speaker 1>in mid terms we will no doubt see again in

0:15:34.160 --> 0:15:38.200
<v Speaker 1>the next presidential election. The Big Take on Bloomberg Radio

0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week is brought to you by SEI Crises

0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:45.680
<v Speaker 1>bring out the best in people, character, community partnership. Together

0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.880
<v Speaker 1>as one, SEI go to se i C dot com

0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:51.080
<v Speaker 1>slash I m S. All right, so let's get to

0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:52.920
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Big Take. It is among our most read

0:15:52.960 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 1>stories on the Bloomberg and it has to do with

0:15:56.960 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 1>what five triters, five traders, excuse me, or telling us

0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:05.520
<v Speaker 1>about how you survive in this crazy, disrupted market world.

0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:07.680
<v Speaker 1>So let's get to it with our own Shinnelli Bossi.

0:16:07.800 --> 0:16:09.760
<v Speaker 1>She is Wall Street reporter at Bloomberg News. She's in

0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:14.200
<v Speaker 1>her interactive broker studio. It is a disrupted world, absolutely,

0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:17.240
<v Speaker 1>and we spoke to people five of us around the world,

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:20.800
<v Speaker 1>from people that manage tens of millions of dollars to

0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.560
<v Speaker 1>hundreds of billions of dollars, and there were some similarities Carol,

0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 1>for example, all of these people are thinking about innovation,

0:16:28.400 --> 0:16:31.160
<v Speaker 1>for example, what is crypto doing to descript the markets?

0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:34.680
<v Speaker 1>They're thinking about volatility, and they're very honest in terms

0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:37.920
<v Speaker 1>of knowing that they're going to lose sometimes and so

0:16:38.520 --> 0:16:41.520
<v Speaker 1>knowing how to lose is what I felt was a

0:16:41.640 --> 0:16:43.760
<v Speaker 1>key quality of a trader as we talked to so

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.080
<v Speaker 1>many of them around the world and really dove into

0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:47.760
<v Speaker 1>their day to day I love it. You spoke to

0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:51.119
<v Speaker 1>the crypto trader, the veteran, the quant the distressed asset trader,

0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:55.960
<v Speaker 1>and the credit trader, and I'm wondering who surprised you emotionally.

0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm a little biased because I did the

0:16:58.680 --> 0:17:02.720
<v Speaker 1>credit trader one this guy, so John Zito. I asked

0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.239
<v Speaker 1>Christine Harper, the Markets magazine editor. I was like, can

0:17:05.240 --> 0:17:08.280
<v Speaker 1>we please do John Zito? Because I had heard about

0:17:08.320 --> 0:17:10.840
<v Speaker 1>him throughout the entire crisis. He was the guy at

0:17:10.880 --> 0:17:13.720
<v Speaker 1>Apollo that was putting billions of dollars into work in

0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:16.639
<v Speaker 1>places like Airbnb or just in credit markets as they

0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 1>were at their lows. And you know he also, I

0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.720
<v Speaker 1>mean he was really into Defy and so he was

0:17:22.760 --> 0:17:26.040
<v Speaker 1>not the crypto trader. But yet I found myself in

0:17:26.119 --> 0:17:30.120
<v Speaker 1>a similar conversation as my colleagues around the world, who

0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:32.639
<v Speaker 1>was talking to the crypto trader in Sydney managing thirty

0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:36.640
<v Speaker 1>eight million dollars. Well, and it's interesting too, because I mean,

0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:39.719
<v Speaker 1>you know, when you think about what's going on in

0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:41.399
<v Speaker 1>this world, and I think about you guys having to

0:17:41.440 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of whittle it down to five people talked to

0:17:43.520 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 1>us little bit more though about about your choice here

0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:48.480
<v Speaker 1>in terms of making the pitch to Christine and saying,

0:17:48.520 --> 0:17:50.440
<v Speaker 1>we've got to include this guy. Yeah, my guy was

0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:54.080
<v Speaker 1>the most institutional so John Zito manages three thirty billion dollars,

0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:57.680
<v Speaker 1>and Christine was very intent on making sure we had

0:17:57.720 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of diversity based on where in the world

0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:01.960
<v Speaker 1>they are, are what they traded. So we had equities,

0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:05.480
<v Speaker 1>we had um debt, and we had a crypto of course,

0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.080
<v Speaker 1>and you know Oliver talk the crypto trader, was twenty

0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:10.560
<v Speaker 1>years old. You know John Zito now is you know,

0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:14.200
<v Speaker 1>well into his forties, manages at thirty billion dollars. And

0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:16.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, Jess had a daughter during he actually while

0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.119
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of the crisis while he was trading

0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:20.200
<v Speaker 1>those assets, so that was kind of another fun fact

0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.840
<v Speaker 1>about him. And so you know, this this diversity of

0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.000
<v Speaker 1>thinking was really important and what what was the thread?

0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:28.200
<v Speaker 1>Many of them woke up at different times to trade

0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:30.440
<v Speaker 1>different assets. You know, some woke up late. John woke

0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:34.280
<v Speaker 1>up at five thirty am. But again that comfort with

0:18:34.400 --> 0:18:38.920
<v Speaker 1>losing and also the precision, right, I mean, the thing

0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:41.000
<v Speaker 1>that John was so frustrated about ken of in the

0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:43.400
<v Speaker 1>world more largely is a alpha's harder to come by.

0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:45.919
<v Speaker 1>He's in the credit world, so you know it's not

0:18:46.000 --> 0:18:47.879
<v Speaker 1>he says, he actually doesn't trade much at all anymore.

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:51.440
<v Speaker 1>He they mostly originate loans, and when markets really blow out,

0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.240
<v Speaker 1>that's when they step in. Don't trade just to trade.

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:58.720
<v Speaker 1>That is Keane number one. Number two is analyzed and

0:18:58.760 --> 0:19:03.000
<v Speaker 1>hold off, step away. And also, you know he said

0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:07.640
<v Speaker 1>they were analyzing hundreds of securities line by line, day

0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:11.960
<v Speaker 1>by day. And so that precision in terms of finding

0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:13.960
<v Speaker 1>out what you can know and what you can't know,

0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:18.119
<v Speaker 1>is such an important aspect of trading. And again this

0:19:18.160 --> 0:19:20.280
<v Speaker 1>is relevant now because we're thinking about all these day

0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:22.600
<v Speaker 1>traders entering the market. So what is the difference between

0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:26.920
<v Speaker 1>a day trader and a professional trader? I don't know anymore.

0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:31.639
<v Speaker 1>It's true, Hey, I'm wondering about their outlook, and you know,

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:33.720
<v Speaker 1>if there's anything that ties them together about the way

0:19:33.760 --> 0:19:36.199
<v Speaker 1>that they think we are headed as a as a

0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.480
<v Speaker 1>global economy. Yeah, I mean I think so I talk

0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:42.040
<v Speaker 1>spoke to the distress No, I spoke to the credit

0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.359
<v Speaker 1>trader who happens to trade and distress sometimes. And then

0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:47.679
<v Speaker 1>Rebecca Chuen Wilkins spoke to a distressed asset trader as well.

0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:53.000
<v Speaker 1>And this idea of volatility. So everybody agrees that the

0:19:53.040 --> 0:19:55.960
<v Speaker 1>federal reserve support not just over the last year, but

0:19:56.000 --> 0:20:00.280
<v Speaker 1>over the last ten years has not just disrupted but

0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:04.640
<v Speaker 1>distorted markets. And so now going into this next era

0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:07.840
<v Speaker 1>knowing that you know either you know what could happen next?

0:20:07.920 --> 0:20:10.959
<v Speaker 1>Is the Federal Reserve support more fragile now that they

0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.240
<v Speaker 1>have exhausted so many resources. That's a big theme too.

0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:16.320
<v Speaker 1>But you do wonder write if there is I think

0:20:16.320 --> 0:20:18.760
<v Speaker 1>about that a lot since the financial crisis, and is

0:20:18.800 --> 0:20:23.520
<v Speaker 1>there an understanding that if things fall apart in whatever

0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:27.800
<v Speaker 1>way X y Z, that the Fed another central banks

0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:31.280
<v Speaker 1>will always be there to backstop everything and to what extent?

0:20:31.640 --> 0:20:34.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, the fell The Fed fell short of propping

0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:35.760
<v Speaker 1>up equity markets. But there was a point if you

0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:38.199
<v Speaker 1>guys remember Scott Minored was asking, you know, well the

0:20:38.280 --> 0:20:41.159
<v Speaker 1>Fed start buying stocks. I mean, that's how do you

0:20:41.200 --> 0:20:43.359
<v Speaker 1>guys remember it just a couple of months ago, now

0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:45.399
<v Speaker 1>that we were in the real, dull drums of it,

0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:49.639
<v Speaker 1>and you know, the market participants are feeding off of

0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:51.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, this idea of moral hazard where the Fed

0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:54.360
<v Speaker 1>will step in when things get bad. But the thing

0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:57.120
<v Speaker 1>is it's marginal. The more they step in, the less

0:20:57.119 --> 0:21:00.480
<v Speaker 1>effective it could be. Well, and it's on you know,

0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:02.640
<v Speaker 1>you were asking about kind of threads and that you're

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 1>so good about doing that, But I do wonder. I

0:21:04.600 --> 0:21:07.960
<v Speaker 1>think we're all trying to figure out what's next, and

0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:10.080
<v Speaker 1>I do feel like that there's a consensus, certainly among

0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:13.840
<v Speaker 1>the guests that we talked about that more volatility like nobody.

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:16.840
<v Speaker 1>I think there's optimism optimism out there, but there's also

0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:19.360
<v Speaker 1>like we're going to see more swings just because we're

0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:22.560
<v Speaker 1>gonna go from again a lot of support that to

0:21:22.600 --> 0:21:25.280
<v Speaker 1>the FED eventually easing off and probably other central banks.

0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:27.960
<v Speaker 1>We've already seen that. Yeah, it's interesting because on one hand,

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:31.280
<v Speaker 1>volatility is scary for our markets, but it's also a

0:21:31.320 --> 0:21:34.359
<v Speaker 1>perfect storm for traders. They make money when there is

0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:37.159
<v Speaker 1>vol There are volatile markets, and there used to be

0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.800
<v Speaker 1>a sense that in the past the VIX above twenties

0:21:40.840 --> 0:21:44.160
<v Speaker 1>starts to get choppy for markets, things like equity offerings

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:46.719
<v Speaker 1>really like exciting things for investors to be involved in.

0:21:47.240 --> 0:21:49.280
<v Speaker 1>Now this is a beyond the scope of the story,

0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:52.679
<v Speaker 1>but my sources say VIX at twenty five, that's the

0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:54.720
<v Speaker 1>new level that you start to get a little scared,

0:21:54.720 --> 0:21:57.359
<v Speaker 1>but maybe it'll be okay. Like that is crazy that

0:21:57.480 --> 0:22:01.240
<v Speaker 1>you can sustain a proper ip with a VIX at five.

0:22:01.320 --> 0:22:04.399
<v Speaker 1>It's just exactly a new world. And if I'm not

0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:08.760
<v Speaker 1>saying cryptos here to stay, um defies a central central

0:22:08.840 --> 0:22:12.040
<v Speaker 1>and just in about fifteen seconds, unfortunately, yeah, he defies

0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:14.520
<v Speaker 1>different than crypto. But they're all acknowledging that they need

0:22:14.560 --> 0:22:16.360
<v Speaker 1>to wake up to these changes. And you know, Wall

0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:19.000
<v Speaker 1>Street better catch on. I'm going to squeeze again. Fifteen seconds,

0:22:19.119 --> 0:22:20.600
<v Speaker 1>y k are, We're gonna talk about a little bit

0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:24.000
<v Speaker 1>more with one of our huge change, huge right, long

0:22:24.000 --> 0:22:26.600
<v Speaker 1>time telegraph, but that we are seeing the new guards

0:22:26.640 --> 0:22:30.320
<v Speaker 1>start to turn over. It's like the next generation rising.

0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:34.320
<v Speaker 1>So good, so good, so good. Shinnali, thank you so much.

0:22:34.359 --> 0:22:37.439
<v Speaker 1>She covers all things Wall Street. It really crosses so

0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:40.080
<v Speaker 1>many different things that are going on in our finance world.

0:22:40.119 --> 0:22:44.680
<v Speaker 1>She's Bloomberg News Wall Street reporter here in studio, big news. Uh,

0:22:44.720 --> 0:22:46.840
<v Speaker 1>and really I think it might still be our most

0:22:46.840 --> 0:22:49.000
<v Speaker 1>read story on the Bloomberg. Has to do with two

0:22:49.040 --> 0:22:52.520
<v Speaker 1>kingpins behemoths. I can't speak yourself per relative in the

0:22:52.560 --> 0:22:55.159
<v Speaker 1>private equity space. We're talking about Henry Cravis and his

0:22:55.240 --> 0:22:59.520
<v Speaker 1>cousin George Roberts, quintessential dealmakers who have dominated global private

0:22:59.560 --> 0:23:01.919
<v Speaker 1>equity for almost half a century. Tim they are seating

0:23:01.960 --> 0:23:05.199
<v Speaker 1>their leadership roles at kk are they're making away for

0:23:05.280 --> 0:23:09.600
<v Speaker 1>handpicked successors, essentially the next generation. Yeah, watershed moment for

0:23:09.720 --> 0:23:12.440
<v Speaker 1>private equity, at least according to our next guest, Brian Schapota,

0:23:12.520 --> 0:23:17.000
<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg opinion columnists who covers debt markets. Brian, give

0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:19.480
<v Speaker 1>us your take on on this big news coming out

0:23:19.480 --> 0:23:21.320
<v Speaker 1>of the private equity world, because it also comes at

0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:23.920
<v Speaker 1>a time where we're seeing other huge private equity firms

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:27.560
<v Speaker 1>make big transitions as well. Yeah, KKR was really the

0:23:27.560 --> 0:23:29.880
<v Speaker 1>one to watch though when you think about the big

0:23:29.880 --> 0:23:33.480
<v Speaker 1>private equity firms, Carlisle had already made it, made its move.

0:23:34.080 --> 0:23:36.400
<v Speaker 1>You had Apollo that was sort of a forced decision

0:23:36.720 --> 0:23:39.480
<v Speaker 1>um with Leon black and the controversy around him and

0:23:39.560 --> 0:23:43.960
<v Speaker 1>his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. Blackstone meanwhile still under Stephen Schwartzman.

0:23:44.080 --> 0:23:46.680
<v Speaker 1>So KKR obviously the k and one of the Kays

0:23:46.760 --> 0:23:50.280
<v Speaker 1>and the R are now stepping down. So it was

0:23:50.359 --> 0:23:53.600
<v Speaker 1>kind of seen as as the real, the real interesting

0:23:53.640 --> 0:23:56.120
<v Speaker 1>one because they thought of the firm of nineteen seventy six,

0:23:56.160 --> 0:23:58.560
<v Speaker 1>they've been at it for four and a half decades,

0:23:59.160 --> 0:24:01.000
<v Speaker 1>so there was some question about, Okay, when are these

0:24:01.000 --> 0:24:03.440
<v Speaker 1>guys going to you know, PA paved the way, paved

0:24:03.440 --> 0:24:07.120
<v Speaker 1>the runway for the next generation, and now we're seeing it.

0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:10.479
<v Speaker 1>It's interesting to write considering what we've already seen in

0:24:10.520 --> 0:24:14.440
<v Speaker 1>private equity. Was this a case of the guys getting older,

0:24:14.480 --> 0:24:17.159
<v Speaker 1>they had to do something, They could lose talent if

0:24:17.200 --> 0:24:21.399
<v Speaker 1>they didn't soon do something. In terms of officially putting

0:24:21.400 --> 0:24:24.040
<v Speaker 1>successors in place? What was what? What are you hearing?

0:24:24.119 --> 0:24:26.919
<v Speaker 1>What are you thinking? What's your observations here? Yeah, I

0:24:26.920 --> 0:24:28.680
<v Speaker 1>think that was definitely a part of it. I mean,

0:24:28.760 --> 0:24:31.240
<v Speaker 1>there was a lot of speculation about, Okay, if there

0:24:31.400 --> 0:24:35.920
<v Speaker 1>is no move to have new CEOs step in for them,

0:24:36.560 --> 0:24:40.560
<v Speaker 1>whether people would ultimately go elsewhere and try their hand elsewhere. Um.

0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:43.439
<v Speaker 1>So this this suggests that, you know, things are moving

0:24:43.640 --> 0:24:46.520
<v Speaker 1>as as there as they were planning. Um, the succession

0:24:46.520 --> 0:24:48.400
<v Speaker 1>plan was started a few years ago, but there wasn't

0:24:48.440 --> 0:24:51.800
<v Speaker 1>really a ton of movement on that front until until

0:24:51.840 --> 0:24:54.840
<v Speaker 1>obviously now. So now the question is going to be,

0:24:55.080 --> 0:24:58.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, whether they're ready for the future. And just

0:24:58.720 --> 0:25:02.200
<v Speaker 1>the massive side of these private equity firms actually wrote

0:25:02.240 --> 0:25:05.240
<v Speaker 1>that even hard to call them private equity firms anymore,

0:25:05.280 --> 0:25:07.520
<v Speaker 1>because private equally is just such a small part of

0:25:07.520 --> 0:25:09.480
<v Speaker 1>what they do, especially you know, you look over to

0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:12.479
<v Speaker 1>Apollo and they've done with a theme and it's just

0:25:12.800 --> 0:25:15.400
<v Speaker 1>it's incredible. They're they're they're massive, They're like I went

0:25:15.400 --> 0:25:17.359
<v Speaker 1>back to look at the the Acid under Management and

0:25:17.400 --> 0:25:19.680
<v Speaker 1>they're just huge. So Brian, talk a little bit about

0:25:19.720 --> 0:25:22.320
<v Speaker 1>how private equity. I mean, it's hard to say it's

0:25:22.320 --> 0:25:25.040
<v Speaker 1>shifted because it's this is private equity right under under

0:25:25.080 --> 0:25:28.359
<v Speaker 1>these two guys at KKR UM. How has it shifted

0:25:28.359 --> 0:25:30.000
<v Speaker 1>though in recent years and how has it changed in

0:25:30.040 --> 0:25:34.000
<v Speaker 1>recent years? Yeah, I mean there's definitely been a push

0:25:34.119 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 1>to have some more stable capital coming in um. Apollo

0:25:38.359 --> 0:25:41.440
<v Speaker 1>really pioneered this with It's a theme deal. They ultimately

0:25:41.440 --> 0:25:44.920
<v Speaker 1>went ahead and did purchase of it earlier this year,

0:25:45.320 --> 0:25:47.679
<v Speaker 1>and basically all the others have had to follow suits.

0:25:47.680 --> 0:25:49.800
<v Speaker 1>So they're looking for ways that they can continue to

0:25:49.880 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 1>generate steadied returns rather than have to take all of

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:58.120
<v Speaker 1>this money that they have. I mean, combined a Polo, Blackstone, Carlisle,

0:25:58.200 --> 0:26:02.640
<v Speaker 1>KKR well over half a trillion dollars in assets under management.

0:26:02.920 --> 0:26:04.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they don't want to have to go chasing

0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:07.880
<v Speaker 1>all these private equity deals that might not pan out

0:26:07.920 --> 0:26:10.560
<v Speaker 1>if you start to really uh go after things that

0:26:10.600 --> 0:26:12.639
<v Speaker 1>are that are a little too risky. Um. So they

0:26:12.640 --> 0:26:14.919
<v Speaker 1>want to find a stable source of capital to supplement

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:17.560
<v Speaker 1>what they do best, which is which is fine attractive

0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:20.840
<v Speaker 1>private equity opportunities and buyouts. Well that's the other thing, right,

0:26:20.880 --> 0:26:23.399
<v Speaker 1>the bread and butter PE business. I mean, there's so

0:26:23.480 --> 0:26:26.639
<v Speaker 1>much money out there, there's so much of PE money

0:26:26.680 --> 0:26:30.359
<v Speaker 1>and other investment money kind of chasing similar targets. And

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:32.479
<v Speaker 1>you do wonder how that becomes a little bit tired

0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:35.520
<v Speaker 1>to be doing that, getting too competitive, and then the

0:26:35.560 --> 0:26:38.520
<v Speaker 1>prices that you may be having to pay pay up

0:26:38.560 --> 0:26:41.280
<v Speaker 1>for because there is so much competition for you know,

0:26:41.359 --> 0:26:44.760
<v Speaker 1>a limited amount of targets. Yeah, I mean that's kind

0:26:44.760 --> 0:26:47.720
<v Speaker 1>of what's what's just ended up happening here with institutions

0:26:47.800 --> 0:26:51.520
<v Speaker 1>and wealthy individuals. They've said, Okay, I can get basically

0:26:51.560 --> 0:26:55.479
<v Speaker 1>nothing in fixed income when adjusted for inflation. UM, I

0:26:55.520 --> 0:26:59.359
<v Speaker 1>could buy public equities. They're very pricey right now, it

0:26:59.400 --> 0:27:01.680
<v Speaker 1>looks like we're seeing them coming off the record highs.

0:27:01.800 --> 0:27:03.560
<v Speaker 1>So so where do you go? You know, you call

0:27:03.680 --> 0:27:06.840
<v Speaker 1>your you call your private equity firm, and you try

0:27:06.840 --> 0:27:09.400
<v Speaker 1>to see if you can get some returns of that way. Um,

0:27:09.440 --> 0:27:12.399
<v Speaker 1>but to your point between private equity, between private credit,

0:27:12.560 --> 0:27:14.720
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of money chasing all of these strategies

0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:17.919
<v Speaker 1>right now. So everyone's trying to scale up and and

0:27:18.040 --> 0:27:21.440
<v Speaker 1>deploy capital at you know, two billion dollars, three billion

0:27:21.480 --> 0:27:24.159
<v Speaker 1>dollars at a time, just to just to get a

0:27:24.200 --> 0:27:25.920
<v Speaker 1>lot of money out there and put it to work.

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:28.080
<v Speaker 1>So help us look forward for this new generation of

0:27:28.160 --> 0:27:31.760
<v Speaker 1>leaders in private equity, especially at KKR, what do the

0:27:31.760 --> 0:27:35.160
<v Speaker 1>next thirty or forty years look like? Oh? Man, Um,

0:27:35.280 --> 0:27:37.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean right now? I mean, I think we're seeing

0:27:37.240 --> 0:27:41.080
<v Speaker 1>a real inflection point and a transition point within private equity,

0:27:41.119 --> 0:27:43.320
<v Speaker 1>where like I said, it's not just going to be

0:27:43.840 --> 0:27:46.879
<v Speaker 1>the typical deals that you saw from the previous generation

0:27:47.000 --> 0:27:50.280
<v Speaker 1>that made kk are famous Barbarian to the gate are

0:27:50.320 --> 0:27:52.720
<v Speaker 1>garon Orbisco. Um, It's not going to be that for

0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:55.320
<v Speaker 1>these guys. It's going to be whether they continue to

0:27:55.359 --> 0:28:00.000
<v Speaker 1>build out this asset management practice into something that's large

0:28:00.000 --> 0:28:01.640
<v Speaker 1>and sustainable. And I think you're going to see more

0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:04.480
<v Speaker 1>of a push towards retail and individual investors. I think

0:28:04.520 --> 0:28:06.600
<v Speaker 1>that's the next frontier, and you just figure out how

0:28:06.600 --> 0:28:09.880
<v Speaker 1>they can get more stable sources of money and being

0:28:09.920 --> 0:28:13.800
<v Speaker 1>able to lock up more capital from from retail investors, individuals. Um,

0:28:13.800 --> 0:28:16.280
<v Speaker 1>I think there's another another avenue that they're going to explore,

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:18.919
<v Speaker 1>Crevice and Robert. So they're not going anywhere just quickly.

0:28:20.200 --> 0:28:23.120
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, No, they're They're still gonna have their hands

0:28:23.119 --> 0:28:25.720
<v Speaker 1>and and things. But they won't be CEOs anymore. They'll

0:28:25.720 --> 0:28:28.639
<v Speaker 1>be executive chairman. Yeah, they'll be They'll be around, is

0:28:28.720 --> 0:28:32.200
<v Speaker 1>my guest. Um, Thanks Brian, Really great perspective on a

0:28:32.520 --> 0:28:36.600
<v Speaker 1>big big news here. Brandon to pot Bloomberg opinion columnist

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:38.760
<v Speaker 1>writer and you can check out more of his work

0:28:39.240 --> 0:28:41.440
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg Terminal also at Bloomberg dot com. But

0:28:41.640 --> 0:28:45.560
<v Speaker 1>it is an interesting moment in time where these well

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:47.920
<v Speaker 1>known names who've created this private equity space, and really

0:28:48.000 --> 0:28:50.840
<v Speaker 1>KKR was at the forefront we heard Brian mentioned it.

0:28:50.920 --> 0:28:54.920
<v Speaker 1>But Steve, Steve Schwartzman, he's still at Blackstone, right. I

0:28:54.920 --> 0:28:57.560
<v Speaker 1>mean these are firm so identified with individuals exactly. But

0:28:57.560 --> 0:28:59.800
<v Speaker 1>but he's got to be looking like, you know what

0:29:00.040 --> 0:29:06.680
<v Speaker 1>I have to do. I'm road mac journal. Yeah, but

0:29:06.800 --> 0:29:13.040
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive nor home, Honny, please, I'll ravel,

0:29:13.800 --> 0:29:21.800
<v Speaker 1>lets me I want to drive, just drive baby. The

0:29:21.960 --> 0:29:33.080
<v Speaker 1>questions drying yea this is the drive to the globe. COMU. Thanks,

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:37.440
<v Speaker 1>we'll drying us dawn on Bloomberg Radio. Alright, folks, just

0:29:37.440 --> 0:29:39.600
<v Speaker 1>about ten minutes left in today's trading session. Bit of

0:29:39.600 --> 0:29:42.880
<v Speaker 1>a wacky one again, coming on the heels of that

0:29:43.000 --> 0:29:45.960
<v Speaker 1>Friday trade. Rady Watts so delighted to have back with

0:29:46.040 --> 0:29:48.960
<v Speaker 1>US chief investment strategist over at O'Neil Global Advisors once

0:29:48.960 --> 0:29:51.920
<v Speaker 1>again on the phone in Miami. Randy, nice to have

0:29:52.080 --> 0:29:55.440
<v Speaker 1>you here. Kind of watching the trade. We were higher

0:29:55.480 --> 0:29:59.440
<v Speaker 1>than we've moved off those levels. I called it a

0:29:59.440 --> 0:30:00.920
<v Speaker 1>wacky tra eight, but I feel like it was the

0:30:00.960 --> 0:30:03.680
<v Speaker 1>same way was it on Friday with the jobs report.

0:30:04.160 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 1>What is it interesting about the market trade to you

0:30:07.560 --> 0:30:09.040
<v Speaker 1>right now? What are some of the internals that you

0:30:09.040 --> 0:30:13.480
<v Speaker 1>think are worth noting? Hi, Carol, Tim, great to be back.

0:30:14.000 --> 0:30:16.120
<v Speaker 1>Hope all as well in New York. I would say,

0:30:16.160 --> 0:30:18.640
<v Speaker 1>when we look at the market technically, we're five weeks

0:30:18.640 --> 0:30:22.120
<v Speaker 1>in the consolidation. We're really looking for the recent lows

0:30:22.160 --> 0:30:26.840
<v Speaker 1>on the SMP to hold around. I believe we probably

0:30:26.840 --> 0:30:29.800
<v Speaker 1>have several more weeks here until we regain some more

0:30:29.840 --> 0:30:32.920
<v Speaker 1>comfortable footing and the market can move above the fifty

0:30:33.000 --> 0:30:35.360
<v Speaker 1>d M A. We'd really like to see the market

0:30:35.400 --> 0:30:38.600
<v Speaker 1>retake that fifty day moving average on good volume until

0:30:38.640 --> 0:30:41.080
<v Speaker 1>we started, until we start to get more bullish. And

0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:43.280
<v Speaker 1>I think what's going to determine that is really how

0:30:43.320 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>earning season goes. Everyone knows it's going to be a

0:30:46.320 --> 0:30:50.760
<v Speaker 1>good earning season. Earnings are forecasts for the SMP for

0:30:50.800 --> 0:30:54.400
<v Speaker 1>this Q three results, But I think what really matters

0:30:54.640 --> 0:30:57.960
<v Speaker 1>is how is forward guidance both in terms of revenues,

0:30:58.240 --> 0:31:02.240
<v Speaker 1>but more particularly in terms of margins and profits? Right exactly,

0:31:02.280 --> 0:31:04.560
<v Speaker 1>you're here. That's like literally, Carol and I were talking

0:31:04.600 --> 0:31:06.680
<v Speaker 1>about this during the break. We do this, We do this,

0:31:06.760 --> 0:31:08.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, cross platform coverage with our TV crew, and

0:31:08.720 --> 0:31:10.720
<v Speaker 1>we all kind of bring different things about the market

0:31:10.720 --> 0:31:13.080
<v Speaker 1>trade and we're both all both like, it's just about

0:31:13.080 --> 0:31:16.480
<v Speaker 1>earnings and what we get, right Tim, Yeah, that's exactly right, Randy,

0:31:16.480 --> 0:31:18.360
<v Speaker 1>And I'm wondering where you're looking specifically. Okay, we want

0:31:18.400 --> 0:31:20.160
<v Speaker 1>to talk margins, but what are you concerned about? Are

0:31:20.200 --> 0:31:22.360
<v Speaker 1>you concerned about higher input costs or you concerned about

0:31:22.400 --> 0:31:25.400
<v Speaker 1>higher labor costs? Are you're concerned about rising price of oil?

0:31:25.520 --> 0:31:29.600
<v Speaker 1>Right now? Yes? Yes, and yes, I would say all

0:31:29.600 --> 0:31:32.200
<v Speaker 1>of the above. I would say, really really two things.

0:31:32.480 --> 0:31:35.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm concerned about input costs, which are both materials as

0:31:35.840 --> 0:31:38.080
<v Speaker 1>well as labor. You know, labor has been running up.

0:31:38.080 --> 0:31:41.080
<v Speaker 1>We saw that last week on the average hourly earnings numbers.

0:31:41.120 --> 0:31:44.880
<v Speaker 1>But I'm also worried about demand destruction in that when

0:31:44.920 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 1>prices go up and people can't find something they want

0:31:48.440 --> 0:31:52.000
<v Speaker 1>to buy, sometimes they find a substitute. For example, you

0:31:52.040 --> 0:31:54.320
<v Speaker 1>can't find a new car you like, so you buy

0:31:54.320 --> 0:31:56.640
<v Speaker 1>a used car. That means you're probably not in the

0:31:56.640 --> 0:31:59.480
<v Speaker 1>market for a new car next year. And I'm also

0:31:59.520 --> 0:32:02.640
<v Speaker 1>worried about maybe sometimes you miss that demand window and

0:32:02.640 --> 0:32:04.600
<v Speaker 1>in the year from now, that person doesn't want a

0:32:04.600 --> 0:32:06.440
<v Speaker 1>new car at all. So I'm worried a little bit

0:32:06.440 --> 0:32:08.480
<v Speaker 1>about that and how that's going to play out in

0:32:08.520 --> 0:32:11.560
<v Speaker 1>the fourth quarter, especially, you know, how much of that

0:32:11.680 --> 0:32:14.400
<v Speaker 1>lack of product is going to hit the holiday season.

0:32:14.600 --> 0:32:16.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's interesting that you say that too, what

0:32:16.200 --> 0:32:19.800
<v Speaker 1>about things like and I'm always curious about sentiment indicators,

0:32:20.440 --> 0:32:22.560
<v Speaker 1>maybe above and beyond the traditional market, and that has

0:32:22.560 --> 0:32:25.560
<v Speaker 1>something to do with consumer confidence. Danny Blanche Flowers Ever

0:32:25.600 --> 0:32:29.480
<v Speaker 1>at Dartmouth, former member of the Bank of England. When

0:32:29.480 --> 0:32:31.920
<v Speaker 1>it comes to policy setting and He wrote about how

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:36.520
<v Speaker 1>he's been tracking and and UM a colleague of consumer sentiment,

0:32:36.600 --> 0:32:40.520
<v Speaker 1>and that how that typically precludes a recession, and that

0:32:40.560 --> 0:32:43.600
<v Speaker 1>we're already seeing that. That says that maybe we're already

0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:47.320
<v Speaker 1>in a recession. What about something like consumer sentiment? Does

0:32:47.360 --> 0:32:50.680
<v Speaker 1>that factor in it all? UH into your your market

0:32:50.680 --> 0:32:54.200
<v Speaker 1>thinking here, Randy, I think consumer sentiment is clearly being

0:32:54.320 --> 0:32:58.080
<v Speaker 1>hit by by inflation. Inflation is much bigger than than

0:32:58.160 --> 0:33:00.160
<v Speaker 1>people thought it was going to be, and as I've

0:33:00.160 --> 0:33:02.760
<v Speaker 1>said before in your program, I really question how transitory

0:33:02.800 --> 0:33:05.640
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be, particularly in two areas labor rates

0:33:05.800 --> 0:33:08.600
<v Speaker 1>and rents. Those tend to be pretty sticky. If you

0:33:08.640 --> 0:33:12.120
<v Speaker 1>look at consumer inflation expectations from the recent University of

0:33:12.160 --> 0:33:16.080
<v Speaker 1>Michigan UH consumer expectations pull. People are now looking for

0:33:16.120 --> 0:33:19.200
<v Speaker 1>about three percent going forward. That's the highest it's been

0:33:19.280 --> 0:33:22.120
<v Speaker 1>in the last eight years. And the bond market has

0:33:22.160 --> 0:33:24.240
<v Speaker 1>taken note of this. If you look at the five

0:33:24.360 --> 0:33:28.560
<v Speaker 1>year five five year forward break even inflation rate, according

0:33:28.560 --> 0:33:31.560
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg, that's now that two point three six percent,

0:33:31.920 --> 0:33:33.560
<v Speaker 1>So that's getting close to that sort of two and

0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:36.240
<v Speaker 1>a half level where it hasn't been for a long time.

0:33:36.360 --> 0:33:38.960
<v Speaker 1>So this kind of low inflation world we had from

0:33:38.960 --> 0:33:42.040
<v Speaker 1>two thousand and fourteen to two now maybe starting to

0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:44.720
<v Speaker 1>break and I think that's starting to hurt consumer sentiment.

0:33:45.040 --> 0:33:47.960
<v Speaker 1>I think with regards the economy, they're real key on

0:33:48.000 --> 0:33:49.960
<v Speaker 1>the economy is going to be how much stimulus is

0:33:49.960 --> 0:33:53.240
<v Speaker 1>coming out of Washington. That's unclear right now. If we

0:33:53.320 --> 0:33:55.640
<v Speaker 1>get a ton the economy is probably gonna be pretty

0:33:55.640 --> 0:33:58.320
<v Speaker 1>strong next year. If we don't, I worry that by

0:33:58.360 --> 0:34:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the time we get to the second half of next year,

0:34:00.320 --> 0:34:02.360
<v Speaker 1>we could really be talking about a mark slowing from

0:34:02.360 --> 0:34:04.440
<v Speaker 1>where we are today. What do you what are you

0:34:04.440 --> 0:34:06.480
<v Speaker 1>concerned about when it or are you concerned about the

0:34:06.480 --> 0:34:08.560
<v Speaker 1>Fed raising interest rates at any any point in the

0:34:08.560 --> 0:34:12.080
<v Speaker 1>near future. Is from Golden Sacks saying, Hey, we don't

0:34:12.080 --> 0:34:15.040
<v Speaker 1>think that's going to happen until the year three because

0:34:15.320 --> 0:34:17.080
<v Speaker 1>the economic growth in the US just isn't gonna be

0:34:17.120 --> 0:34:20.359
<v Speaker 1>there to warrant it. I'm not concerned about the FED

0:34:20.480 --> 0:34:22.759
<v Speaker 1>raising rates as long as they stick stick to the

0:34:22.840 --> 0:34:25.560
<v Speaker 1>guide path. But they've really told everyone, which is we're

0:34:25.560 --> 0:34:27.960
<v Speaker 1>gonna We're gonna start the taper in the fourth quarter

0:34:27.960 --> 0:34:29.719
<v Speaker 1>of this year. That's going to take us ten to

0:34:29.760 --> 0:34:32.520
<v Speaker 1>twelve months we're gonna finish in the fourth quarter and

0:34:32.600 --> 0:34:34.959
<v Speaker 1>next year, and then we're gonna start to raise rates.

0:34:35.160 --> 0:34:36.879
<v Speaker 1>So we're really not going to raise rates till late

0:34:36.880 --> 0:34:40.000
<v Speaker 1>in the year of two or the beginning of three.

0:34:40.239 --> 0:34:42.000
<v Speaker 1>And that's what the bond market is set up for.

0:34:42.480 --> 0:34:44.960
<v Speaker 1>I think as long as that's what happens, the market's fine.

0:34:45.360 --> 0:34:48.279
<v Speaker 1>I think if the Fed deviates meaningfully from that, that

0:34:48.280 --> 0:34:50.640
<v Speaker 1>could cause a surprise, and that could cause a dislocation

0:34:51.239 --> 0:34:54.239
<v Speaker 1>worrisome in terms of stocks hitting new fifty two week

0:34:54.320 --> 0:34:56.319
<v Speaker 1>highs versus fifty two week lolows. I mean, is there

0:34:56.360 --> 0:34:58.200
<v Speaker 1>something along that line that also gives us an idea

0:34:58.239 --> 0:35:02.279
<v Speaker 1>of what investors are thinking maybe where we go from here. Well,

0:35:02.320 --> 0:35:04.120
<v Speaker 1>I think one measure I prefer to look at is

0:35:04.120 --> 0:35:07.279
<v Speaker 1>actually the percentage of the SMP that's trading above it's

0:35:07.320 --> 0:35:11.359
<v Speaker 1>fifty day that numbers down to thirty. That's a that's

0:35:11.360 --> 0:35:13.880
<v Speaker 1>a pretty weak number. I do think we maybe have

0:35:13.920 --> 0:35:16.719
<v Speaker 1>a couple more weeks of of rough sledding, but I

0:35:16.719 --> 0:35:18.560
<v Speaker 1>do think the elements are set up for a year

0:35:18.680 --> 0:35:21.239
<v Speaker 1>end rally, which is, you know, get get the dead

0:35:21.280 --> 0:35:25.120
<v Speaker 1>ceiling raised possible. Some of these bills working their way

0:35:25.120 --> 0:35:29.040
<v Speaker 1>through the House pass in terms of infrastructure and reconciliation,

0:35:29.520 --> 0:35:32.200
<v Speaker 1>we have an okay earning season. I think that could

0:35:32.200 --> 0:35:34.480
<v Speaker 1>be really give you the recipe for a strong year

0:35:34.600 --> 0:35:37.319
<v Speaker 1>end rally, and so I do. I am still optimistic

0:35:37.320 --> 0:35:39.400
<v Speaker 1>that we're going to finish the year better than we

0:35:39.440 --> 0:35:41.879
<v Speaker 1>are right now in terms of absolute levels. And then

0:35:41.880 --> 0:35:43.719
<v Speaker 1>I think next year is is it's really going to

0:35:43.800 --> 0:35:46.960
<v Speaker 1>come down to what happens to inflation and race. Well, Randy,

0:35:47.000 --> 0:35:48.279
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if I've spoken to someone who's as

0:35:48.320 --> 0:35:50.920
<v Speaker 1>optimistic as you are about Washington at all in recent

0:35:51.000 --> 0:35:52.839
<v Speaker 1>in recent months, you think all that can happen before

0:35:52.880 --> 0:35:54.920
<v Speaker 1>the end of the year. I think there's a lot

0:35:54.960 --> 0:35:57.759
<v Speaker 1>of pressure to get something done. I think eventually that

0:35:57.840 --> 0:36:00.600
<v Speaker 1>the Democrats are likely to feel that some kind of

0:36:00.600 --> 0:36:03.759
<v Speaker 1>reconciliation bill is better than nothing. And I do think

0:36:03.760 --> 0:36:07.640
<v Speaker 1>there's sentiment to pass the infrastructure bill, and I think, uh,

0:36:07.719 --> 0:36:10.319
<v Speaker 1>this recent economics data, like the recent jobs report, which

0:36:10.360 --> 0:36:13.480
<v Speaker 1>was disappointing, might give a little more emphasis to getting

0:36:13.520 --> 0:36:16.520
<v Speaker 1>something done. So I would be personally surprised if nothing

0:36:16.520 --> 0:36:19.319
<v Speaker 1>gets passed. Hey, just quickly, um Brandy, I don't know

0:36:19.360 --> 0:36:21.759
<v Speaker 1>what if you've technically looked at what's going on in

0:36:21.760 --> 0:36:23.880
<v Speaker 1>the energy space. We know that that has certainly been

0:36:23.880 --> 0:36:25.359
<v Speaker 1>one of the standouts this year. I think the top

0:36:25.360 --> 0:36:27.960
<v Speaker 1>performing group, certainly in the major industry group in the

0:36:28.040 --> 0:36:33.200
<v Speaker 1>SNP five. Just quickly seconds here, uh by not avoid

0:36:33.280 --> 0:36:36.440
<v Speaker 1>what would you say? I think energy is strong, It's

0:36:36.480 --> 0:36:40.520
<v Speaker 1>made a turn, but with oil now in the dollar range,

0:36:40.560 --> 0:36:42.480
<v Speaker 1>I think it's a little bit extended right now. I

0:36:42.480 --> 0:36:44.520
<v Speaker 1>would look for it to pull back and probably buy

0:36:44.560 --> 0:36:47.440
<v Speaker 1>that pullback. But I do think higher energy prices are

0:36:47.440 --> 0:36:48.920
<v Speaker 1>gonna be something we're gonna be dealing with over the

0:36:48.920 --> 0:36:53.239
<v Speaker 1>next year. So equity plays and energy interesting. Uh we

0:36:53.360 --> 0:36:57.000
<v Speaker 1>like the sector again, financials and energy. I've had such

0:36:57.120 --> 0:36:59.640
<v Speaker 1>big moves in the last kind in the last couple

0:36:59.680 --> 0:37:01.640
<v Speaker 1>of weeks that I feel like the stocks are kind

0:37:01.640 --> 0:37:04.520
<v Speaker 1>of set up for a pullback on this earning seven season,

0:37:04.560 --> 0:37:07.760
<v Speaker 1>even the results are good because expectations are so high.

0:37:08.000 --> 0:37:10.360
<v Speaker 1>But I think that might provide investors actually an entry

0:37:10.360 --> 0:37:12.480
<v Speaker 1>point into both of those groups. Got it. Always learn

0:37:12.520 --> 0:37:15.719
<v Speaker 1>a lot, Hey, be well, stay safe. Frandy Watts, chief

0:37:15.719 --> 0:37:18.640
<v Speaker 1>Investment Strategies at O'Neil Global Advisors, with us on the

0:37:18.680 --> 0:37:21.839
<v Speaker 1>phone in Miami. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:37:21.920 --> 0:37:25.520
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:37:25.560 --> 0:37:27.200
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0:37:27.239 --> 0:37:30.280
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0:37:30.400 --> 0:37:31.920
<v Speaker 1>Sarah to Bloomberg Global News