1
00:00:11,697 --> 00:00:14,977
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Buck Sexton Show podcast, make sure

2
00:00:15,017 --> 00:00:18,017
Speaker 1: you subscribe to the podcast on the iHeartRadio app or

3
00:00:18,057 --> 00:00:19,737
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts.

4
00:00:20,737 --> 00:00:24,057
Speaker 2: Hey guys, welcome to the Buck Brief. Ryan Graduski with us.

5
00:00:24,097 --> 00:00:26,817
Speaker 2: He is the author of the National Populist newsletter on

6
00:00:26,937 --> 00:00:30,977
Speaker 2: Substack great analysis. There go subscribe Ryan. Who is winning

7
00:00:30,977 --> 00:00:33,857
Speaker 2: this election? Where by? How much? What's going on?

8
00:00:34,937 --> 00:00:36,777
Speaker 1: Well, the three states that matter the most right now

9
00:00:36,777 --> 00:00:40,897
Speaker 1: are Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If Trump wins all

10
00:00:40,937 --> 00:00:42,497
Speaker 1: three of those a lot, but third three of those

11
00:00:42,497 --> 00:00:45,257
Speaker 1: states he's got in the bag, he's going to win.

12
00:00:45,497 --> 00:00:47,697
Speaker 1: If he loses any of those three states, it becomes

13
00:00:47,817 --> 00:00:52,937
Speaker 1: much much more difficult. I feel very bullish on Pennsylvania

14
00:00:53,017 --> 00:00:58,297
Speaker 1: given that Republicans are overperforming an absentee requests round twenty

15
00:00:58,337 --> 00:01:02,377
Speaker 1: twenty two about one hundred and one thousand more Republican

16
00:01:02,377 --> 00:01:08,457
Speaker 1: absentee requests since the midterms are in. In Pennsylvania, Democrats

17
00:01:08,457 --> 00:01:11,777
Speaker 1: are down over fifty thousand vote. So even though Democrats lead,

18
00:01:11,777 --> 00:01:15,537
Speaker 1: which are always going to lead an absentee ballots, Republicans

19
00:01:15,577 --> 00:01:18,777
Speaker 1: have a much bigger margin. Republicans are probably going to

20
00:01:18,817 --> 00:01:22,057
Speaker 1: get very close, if not surpass their twenty twenty numbers.

21
00:01:22,457 --> 00:01:24,577
Speaker 1: Democrats are not even going to get close to They're

22
00:01:24,577 --> 00:01:28,337
Speaker 1: probably about a half a million sure their twenty twenty numbers.

23
00:01:28,377 --> 00:01:30,697
Speaker 1: Republicans will probably hit their twenty twenty numbers.

24
00:01:31,417 --> 00:01:35,937
Speaker 2: So Pennsylvania is looking good. Do you have concerns about

25
00:01:36,937 --> 00:01:39,737
Speaker 2: the ability of some of these places that have been

26
00:01:39,737 --> 00:01:43,417
Speaker 2: hardest hit Western North Carolina and others to be able

27
00:01:43,457 --> 00:01:45,857
Speaker 2: to get people to, you know, just to be able

28
00:01:45,897 --> 00:01:47,577
Speaker 2: to vote period right, be able to get there to

29
00:01:47,617 --> 00:01:49,177
Speaker 2: the polling place or do you think that they'll be

30
00:01:49,257 --> 00:01:52,217
Speaker 2: able to figure that out before election day?

31
00:01:52,337 --> 00:01:54,897
Speaker 1: Sure, it depends on what the laws are. They might

32
00:01:54,937 --> 00:01:56,937
Speaker 1: amend some of the laws to allow people to vote

33
00:01:56,977 --> 00:01:59,177
Speaker 1: in different counties than when they reside. And I don't

34
00:01:59,217 --> 00:02:02,017
Speaker 1: exactly know every place that was hit. I know all

35
00:02:02,017 --> 00:02:05,857
Speaker 1: of western North Carolina wasn't hit equally. And where it

36
00:02:05,897 --> 00:02:08,697
Speaker 1: comes to the votes, the city of Asheville and the

37
00:02:08,737 --> 00:02:12,697
Speaker 1: county that Asheville sides and gives about a thirty five

38
00:02:12,897 --> 00:02:18,657
Speaker 1: thousand vote majority to Democrats serving to Biden. The surrounding

39
00:02:18,697 --> 00:02:22,177
Speaker 1: counties give about a thirty five thousand vote lead to Trump.

40
00:02:23,657 --> 00:02:26,297
Speaker 1: It could end up being a wash depending on how

41
00:02:26,857 --> 00:02:28,577
Speaker 1: that was not meant to be a joke at wash,

42
00:02:28,657 --> 00:02:31,777
Speaker 1: but it may end up being even given the fact

43
00:02:31,777 --> 00:02:34,817
Speaker 1: that Asheville is so liberal. I mean within the city

44
00:02:34,857 --> 00:02:38,697
Speaker 1: confines of Asheville, it's like ninety ten Democrat. It's, as

45
00:02:39,017 --> 00:02:42,657
Speaker 1: they call it, the San Francisco of North Carolina. So

46
00:02:42,737 --> 00:02:44,897
Speaker 1: I don't know. It's very very difficult to sit there

47
00:02:44,937 --> 00:02:46,257
Speaker 1: and see they're going to have to change some of

48
00:02:46,297 --> 00:02:49,177
Speaker 1: the laws. But I'm not super hung up either which

49
00:02:49,217 --> 00:02:51,817
Speaker 1: way how it's going to go. Hopefully they do, and

50
00:02:51,817 --> 00:02:54,417
Speaker 1: hopefully they try to give people an option to vote

51
00:02:54,457 --> 00:02:55,697
Speaker 1: aside from the normal ways.

52
00:02:55,857 --> 00:02:58,177
Speaker 2: How is Trump looking in Georgia right now?

53
00:02:59,577 --> 00:03:02,937
Speaker 1: So Georgia does not have party registration, which is a

54
00:03:03,057 --> 00:03:05,777
Speaker 1: very difficult thing because Pennsylvania does, North Carolina does. A

55
00:03:05,817 --> 00:03:09,897
Speaker 1: lot of states don't register voters by party, right, Michigan does,

56
00:03:10,097 --> 00:03:13,657
Speaker 1: in Texas does, in Virginia does, in Wisconsin doesn't. So

57
00:03:14,057 --> 00:03:18,417
Speaker 1: you go on racial estimates and geographical estimates. That's really

58
00:03:18,457 --> 00:03:20,097
Speaker 1: all you have, and you kind of have to sit

59
00:03:20,137 --> 00:03:24,297
Speaker 1: there and guess where that number is in Virginia, which

60
00:03:24,377 --> 00:03:26,777
Speaker 1: is not obviously not Georgia, and they vote to the

61
00:03:26,857 --> 00:03:28,937
Speaker 1: left of Georgia. But it's a lot of the similar

62
00:03:28,977 --> 00:03:35,697
Speaker 1: demographics ex. Surban and rural Democratic voters or people in

63
00:03:35,817 --> 00:03:41,137
Speaker 1: democratic places specifically rural blacks ex. Surban Hispanics have very

64
00:03:41,417 --> 00:03:45,257
Speaker 1: very poor tone out as of right now. If that

65
00:03:46,017 --> 00:03:48,577
Speaker 1: happens in Georgia as well, where the Black Belt, which

66
00:03:48,617 --> 00:03:53,257
Speaker 1: is southern Georgia heavily black. There's almost a line from

67
00:03:53,777 --> 00:03:58,097
Speaker 1: western Georgia to eastern Georgia where you'll see almost continuous

68
00:03:58,217 --> 00:04:01,537
Speaker 1: amount of black counties or sorry, Democratic counties. Those are

69
00:04:01,617 --> 00:04:04,737
Speaker 1: majority black, rural black counties. They become writer and red

70
00:04:04,977 --> 00:04:08,297
Speaker 1: over time. If those are down, which I don't know

71
00:04:08,337 --> 00:04:10,857
Speaker 1: if they exactly are, because early vote is just really

72
00:04:10,937 --> 00:04:14,337
Speaker 1: begun in Georgia. If those are down like they are

73
00:04:14,377 --> 00:04:17,857
Speaker 1: down in Virginia, that could bode well as to offset

74
00:04:18,217 --> 00:04:21,937
Speaker 1: any losses out of Atlanta or the Atlanta suburban region.

75
00:04:22,297 --> 00:04:24,617
Speaker 1: So it's still a little too early as that they're

76
00:04:24,657 --> 00:04:28,097
Speaker 1: intel and without party registration, we're not going to really

77
00:04:28,177 --> 00:04:31,977
Speaker 1: know how Republicans are showing up versus Democrats. It's basically

78
00:04:32,097 --> 00:04:34,817
Speaker 1: race and geography, and that's all we have to really

79
00:04:34,857 --> 00:04:35,257
Speaker 1: go on.

80
00:04:35,457 --> 00:04:38,137
Speaker 2: I want to ask about the key Midwest states Wisconsin

81
00:04:38,177 --> 00:04:40,137
Speaker 2: and Michigan here in a second. But first up from

82
00:04:40,177 --> 00:04:43,657
Speaker 2: our sponsor, Birch Gold. Inflation keeps driving down the value

83
00:04:43,777 --> 00:04:46,537
Speaker 2: of dollars, but the value of gold is up. In fact,

84
00:04:46,537 --> 00:04:49,017
Speaker 2: recently hit an all time high. Owning gold is a

85
00:04:49,017 --> 00:04:53,017
Speaker 2: hedge against inflation and uncertainty and government malfeasans, and it

86
00:04:53,057 --> 00:04:56,737
Speaker 2: has been for really all of history. Purchasing and owning

87
00:04:56,817 --> 00:04:59,457
Speaker 2: gold or silver is easier than you'd think. You can

88
00:04:59,497 --> 00:05:01,657
Speaker 2: own both of them, gold and silver. I rely on

89
00:05:01,657 --> 00:05:03,697
Speaker 2: the Birch Gold Group. You should too, That's what we

90
00:05:03,777 --> 00:05:06,857
Speaker 2: trust to handle your gold and silver purchases. Birch Gold

91
00:05:06,937 --> 00:05:09,417
Speaker 2: makes it understandable and easier than ever to purchase physical

92
00:05:09,417 --> 00:05:11,097
Speaker 2: gold that you can hold on to in your home.

93
00:05:11,257 --> 00:05:13,257
Speaker 2: You can also purchase gold and put in your Ira

94
00:05:13,737 --> 00:05:16,857
Speaker 2: or four to h one K. More Americans than ever

95
00:05:16,937 --> 00:05:19,537
Speaker 2: now own gold and silver. You should join them. Consider

96
00:05:19,577 --> 00:05:21,737
Speaker 2: it with our friends at the Birch Gold Group. They're

97
00:05:21,777 --> 00:05:24,137
Speaker 2: there to help. Text my name Buck to ninety eight

98
00:05:24,217 --> 00:05:27,937
Speaker 2: ninety eight ninety eight receive a free no obligation infokate again.

99
00:05:28,017 --> 00:05:31,377
Speaker 2: Text Buck to ninety eight ninety eight ninety eight Birch Gold.

100
00:05:31,377 --> 00:05:35,897
Speaker 2: Trust them, check them out today, Michigan, Wisconsin. Do the

101
00:05:35,937 --> 00:05:37,337
Speaker 2: thing you do, Ryan, Yeah, look.

102
00:05:37,217 --> 00:05:42,137
Speaker 1: At once again two states without any voter registration, so

103
00:05:42,417 --> 00:05:45,497
Speaker 1: it's very difficult to sit they're insay, but specifically on

104
00:05:45,977 --> 00:05:51,977
Speaker 1: geographical region, certainly the big cities Wayne County, Michigan, Minneapolis

105
00:05:52,137 --> 00:05:58,897
Speaker 1: and Minnempis Minnesota, rather Milwaukee and Dane County in Wisconsin

106
00:05:59,217 --> 00:06:02,577
Speaker 1: are having decently high early voter turnout. About one hundred

107
00:06:02,697 --> 00:06:06,337
Speaker 1: thousand people have voted in Wisconsin so far, many coming

108
00:06:06,337 --> 00:06:09,137
Speaker 1: out of the major cities, some coming out of the suburbs,

109
00:06:09,137 --> 00:06:13,857
Speaker 1: which are usuallyavily Republican. We don't know, it's just the beginning,

110
00:06:13,857 --> 00:06:17,017
Speaker 1: but one hundred thousand. They'll probably closer between two point

111
00:06:17,057 --> 00:06:20,457
Speaker 1: eight and three point one million votes cast out of Wisconsin,

112
00:06:21,017 --> 00:06:24,457
Speaker 1: so it's just the very tip of it. Rurals haven't

113
00:06:24,457 --> 00:06:27,257
Speaker 1: shown up yet, but we'll have to wait and see.

114
00:06:27,937 --> 00:06:31,897
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania looks to be the easiest of the three to flip.

115
00:06:31,937 --> 00:06:34,177
Speaker 1: It has certainly got the most Electoral College votes and

116
00:06:34,217 --> 00:06:38,257
Speaker 1: it is the most valuable for the election purposes, but

117
00:06:38,337 --> 00:06:41,337
Speaker 1: we'll have to wait and see where that goes. And

118
00:06:41,417 --> 00:06:43,737
Speaker 1: we'll have this wait and see how the youth vote

119
00:06:43,777 --> 00:06:47,977
Speaker 1: and the heavily Arab part portions of Michigan sit there

120
00:06:48,017 --> 00:06:50,217
Speaker 1: and show up and turn out, and we won't know

121
00:06:50,377 --> 00:06:54,217
Speaker 1: what they're party, how they're voting obviously until election day.

122
00:06:54,257 --> 00:06:55,817
Speaker 2: Do you think that Trump is in better shape in

123
00:06:55,897 --> 00:06:57,257
Speaker 2: Michigan or Wisconsin right now?

124
00:06:58,937 --> 00:07:02,137
Speaker 1: I would say Wisconsin only because it is they vote

125
00:07:02,257 --> 00:07:05,817
Speaker 1: more frequently Republican than they do Democrat. There was a

126
00:07:05,857 --> 00:07:09,097
Speaker 1: Mitchell pull out today showing and a head to head

127
00:07:09,297 --> 00:07:13,537
Speaker 1: Trump was ahead of kamalaw by a point in the race.

128
00:07:13,617 --> 00:07:15,817
Speaker 1: Overall they retie. The New York Times seeing a poll

129
00:07:15,857 --> 00:07:18,977
Speaker 1: had I think Kamala up by one point. Everything is very,

130
00:07:19,097 --> 00:07:22,137
Speaker 1: very very close. If the polling error is the same

131
00:07:22,177 --> 00:07:24,297
Speaker 1: as twenty twenty, which I'm not saying it will be,

132
00:07:24,497 --> 00:07:26,937
Speaker 1: those will probably be a Trump's seeds. Trump is definitely

133
00:07:26,937 --> 00:07:29,937
Speaker 1: more competitive in this election than in any other previous

134
00:07:29,977 --> 00:07:33,977
Speaker 1: election cycle. It's just a big question of how where

135
00:07:34,097 --> 00:07:35,897
Speaker 1: is the polling off and how much is off? And

136
00:07:35,977 --> 00:07:38,617
Speaker 1: who is turning out? This is much more a turnout

137
00:07:38,657 --> 00:07:41,937
Speaker 1: election than is anything else, simply because Kamala and Trump

138
00:07:42,417 --> 00:07:46,857
Speaker 1: have very high favorability ratings, and given that in the

139
00:07:46,897 --> 00:07:50,217
Speaker 1: last two elections they both had very low favorability ratings,

140
00:07:50,617 --> 00:07:54,217
Speaker 1: both Biden and Hillary and Trump both times. Trump's got

141
00:07:54,257 --> 00:07:57,217
Speaker 1: a pretty high favorability rating, and so does Kamala right now.

142
00:07:57,417 --> 00:08:00,537
Speaker 1: So it's really about who's showing up and how frequently

143
00:08:00,577 --> 00:08:02,417
Speaker 1: they're showing up and if they can get their people out.

144
00:08:02,697 --> 00:08:08,097
Speaker 1: In Pennsylvania specifically, it looks like mid level propensity voters

145
00:08:08,137 --> 00:08:11,617
Speaker 1: are showing up to get an early apposity backalid In Virginia,

146
00:08:11,817 --> 00:08:15,497
Speaker 1: it looks that way for Republicans and lover pensity minorities,

147
00:08:15,577 --> 00:08:18,257
Speaker 1: especially in Virginia, which has the highest I think going

148
00:08:18,257 --> 00:08:21,297
Speaker 1: back to Virginia because it is the most early votes

149
00:08:21,377 --> 00:08:23,937
Speaker 1: cast out of any state over half a million, So

150
00:08:23,977 --> 00:08:25,537
Speaker 1: we can kind of really get a good sense of

151
00:08:25,537 --> 00:08:29,257
Speaker 1: where people are showing up, where they're not showing up. Virginia,

152
00:08:30,297 --> 00:08:33,617
Speaker 1: rural blacks, excert and Hispanics around like Prince William County

153
00:08:33,697 --> 00:08:36,977
Speaker 1: especially very very very low turnout as of right now,

154
00:08:37,657 --> 00:08:40,777
Speaker 1: and they are not the more likely election day voters,

155
00:08:40,777 --> 00:08:43,937
Speaker 1: So those are more likely early voters. So something shows

156
00:08:44,057 --> 00:08:46,817
Speaker 1: a trend sign, it's usually not alone in a single state.

157
00:08:46,857 --> 00:08:48,697
Speaker 1: It will carry on into other states.

158
00:08:48,977 --> 00:08:51,777
Speaker 2: Is it clear yet that well, Actually, I want to

159
00:08:51,857 --> 00:08:54,257
Speaker 2: I'll ask you this question a second about who Kamala

160
00:08:54,297 --> 00:08:58,417
Speaker 2: Harris is underperforming with relative to Biden. I want to

161
00:08:58,417 --> 00:09:00,857
Speaker 2: get to that, but first up from a legacy from

162
00:09:01,697 --> 00:09:05,537
Speaker 2: Stansbury Research, our sponsor. The past decade, I've worked with

163
00:09:05,537 --> 00:09:08,897
Speaker 2: Stansbury Research on and off. They produced incredibly insightful reports

164
00:09:09,097 --> 00:09:11,537
Speaker 2: and they've got one out of a strange accidents that

165
00:09:11,577 --> 00:09:13,737
Speaker 2: are happening. We've seen reports of nine to one call

166
00:09:13,737 --> 00:09:16,577
Speaker 2: centers going offline, red reports of a plane falling apart

167
00:09:16,617 --> 00:09:18,257
Speaker 2: mid flight. And one of the big reveals was the

168
00:09:18,297 --> 00:09:21,337
Speaker 2: number of train accidents last year, some forty seven hundred

169
00:09:21,417 --> 00:09:24,137
Speaker 2: in all. So why is this all happening? Learn why

170
00:09:24,177 --> 00:09:26,417
Speaker 2: so many big accidents are taking place in America and

171
00:09:26,497 --> 00:09:29,017
Speaker 2: exactly where and when the next big accident is most

172
00:09:29,057 --> 00:09:31,577
Speaker 2: likely to occur. Very likely to affect you, especially you

173
00:09:31,577 --> 00:09:33,337
Speaker 2: have money in the bank or the markets. Go to

174
00:09:33,377 --> 00:09:37,417
Speaker 2: America disaster dot com for the full story. That's America

175
00:09:37,577 --> 00:09:40,937
Speaker 2: disaster dot com. Get the full story on America's next

176
00:09:40,937 --> 00:09:44,017
Speaker 2: big accident. How to protect you, your family, and your money.

177
00:09:44,857 --> 00:09:49,057
Speaker 2: Kamala relative to Biden performance with various groups, I mean

178
00:09:49,177 --> 00:09:51,137
Speaker 2: I'm asking about some I'm wondering, is she getting a

179
00:09:51,137 --> 00:09:53,297
Speaker 2: lot more female votes? How she doing with the black

180
00:09:53,377 --> 00:09:54,537
Speaker 2: vote relative to Biden?

181
00:09:54,737 --> 00:09:59,737
Speaker 1: What are you seeing so in the polling Kamala, there's

182
00:09:59,777 --> 00:10:03,457
Speaker 1: no difference in the female vote from Hillary and Biden.

183
00:10:03,577 --> 00:10:06,137
Speaker 1: She's about fifteen points ahead. This is the current in

184
00:10:06,177 --> 00:10:10,017
Speaker 1: your time Sanipol, an average of most ad plus poll serve,

185
00:10:10,057 --> 00:10:13,937
Speaker 1: the Pew Research poll. She's really gotten very little movement

186
00:10:13,977 --> 00:10:16,777
Speaker 1: in bear to Biden, and the polls that show Trump

187
00:10:16,977 --> 00:10:19,937
Speaker 1: losing by four points versus a tide race is a

188
00:10:19,977 --> 00:10:23,417
Speaker 1: difference of not the female vote overall, it's the mail vote.

189
00:10:23,897 --> 00:10:26,297
Speaker 1: Is Trump winning the male vote by six which is

190
00:10:26,297 --> 00:10:28,377
Speaker 1: what he won against Biden, or is he winning it

191
00:10:28,417 --> 00:10:31,457
Speaker 1: by eleven, which is what he won against Hillary. That

192
00:10:31,617 --> 00:10:33,977
Speaker 1: is the difference between a four point spread and a

193
00:10:34,017 --> 00:10:36,817
Speaker 1: tide race. Because she is not advancing at all with

194
00:10:36,897 --> 00:10:40,897
Speaker 1: this where she's underperforming Biden. It looks like is certainly

195
00:10:41,017 --> 00:10:44,577
Speaker 1: some union polls, some poles of union workers, she seems

196
00:10:44,577 --> 00:10:47,177
Speaker 1: to be down among the black vote. She is down,

197
00:10:47,257 --> 00:10:51,857
Speaker 1: it is not a significantly down. She's about Trumps about

198
00:10:51,857 --> 00:10:56,097
Speaker 1: thirteen percent. She's about eighty to eighty five percent of

199
00:10:56,137 --> 00:10:58,857
Speaker 1: the of the black vote, which would mean that she's

200
00:10:58,977 --> 00:11:01,257
Speaker 1: maybe down like six or seven points from weight, which

201
00:11:01,297 --> 00:11:04,097
Speaker 1: is a big number, but not a huge number what

202
00:11:04,217 --> 00:11:07,017
Speaker 1: you would expect. She's slightly down with this spanning vote.

203
00:11:07,017 --> 00:11:10,977
Speaker 1: It is not an enormous downward slope, though it is

204
00:11:11,017 --> 00:11:14,057
Speaker 1: once again other five or six points. The only area

205
00:11:14,057 --> 00:11:17,937
Speaker 1: that Kamala is significantly ahead of where she was where

206
00:11:17,977 --> 00:11:20,737
Speaker 1: Democrats were in twenty twenty and in twenty sixteen is

207
00:11:20,777 --> 00:11:24,497
Speaker 1: among college educated whites. It's really the sole group and

208
00:11:24,537 --> 00:11:28,057
Speaker 1: even some polls that have non college educated whites where

209
00:11:28,177 --> 00:11:30,497
Speaker 1: the polls could be off. And I've written about this

210
00:11:30,577 --> 00:11:35,217
Speaker 1: a lot, is that older white Liberals are answering polls

211
00:11:35,257 --> 00:11:40,297
Speaker 1: at significantly higher levels than they actually would be voting in.

212
00:11:40,657 --> 00:11:44,177
Speaker 1: So in the New York Times Cena pol nationally it

213
00:11:44,257 --> 00:11:47,977
Speaker 1: has Trump winning seniors by six points. He won them

214
00:11:47,977 --> 00:11:51,217
Speaker 1: by four against Biden and nine against Hillary. So it's

215
00:11:51,257 --> 00:11:54,657
Speaker 1: right in the middle. It would make sense in an

216
00:11:54,737 --> 00:11:57,577
Speaker 1: election where the polls are tighter but he's not winning,

217
00:11:57,657 --> 00:12:01,777
Speaker 1: maybe like an a D plus two national environment where

218
00:12:01,817 --> 00:12:04,337
Speaker 1: the polls showed in Pennsylvania the New York Times Cenna

219
00:12:04,337 --> 00:12:07,937
Speaker 1: pol had had Kamala I had among seniors by four.

220
00:12:08,337 --> 00:12:11,377
Speaker 1: That is not ever going to have happen. Pennsylvania seniors

221
00:12:11,417 --> 00:12:15,137
Speaker 1: always vote to the right of seniors nationally, So what

222
00:12:15,177 --> 00:12:17,897
Speaker 1: it suggests to me is that a lot of these

223
00:12:17,937 --> 00:12:23,617
Speaker 1: polling institutions are over sampling liberal seniors and it's causing

224
00:12:23,897 --> 00:12:27,697
Speaker 1: the margins to be wider than they should be, especially

225
00:12:27,697 --> 00:12:30,257
Speaker 1: in the rust belt states where this has happened both

226
00:12:30,297 --> 00:12:33,297
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen and in twenty twenty. The silent Trump

227
00:12:33,337 --> 00:12:36,537
Speaker 1: voter a lot of times is really just white, older

228
00:12:36,577 --> 00:12:39,337
Speaker 1: liberals answering the phones and calling pollsters if they have

229
00:12:39,417 --> 00:12:42,097
Speaker 1: to to tell everyone how much they hate Donald Trump.

230
00:12:43,977 --> 00:12:45,977
Speaker 2: I've met some of those people, by the way, they

231
00:12:46,057 --> 00:12:48,897
Speaker 2: get tell you on those people exactly, yeah, how much

232
00:12:48,897 --> 00:12:51,057
Speaker 2: they hate Donald Trump. You you've walked down the street, like,

233
00:12:51,057 --> 00:12:52,937
Speaker 2: do you realize how much I hate Trump? Like I'm

234
00:12:52,937 --> 00:12:59,017
Speaker 2: just trying to walk my dog the Yeah, you've seen it. Senate,

235
00:12:59,697 --> 00:13:02,857
Speaker 2: how likely is it that there's Republican control now? I mean,

236
00:13:02,897 --> 00:13:06,817
Speaker 2: from what I can see, Tester is looking like he's

237
00:13:07,017 --> 00:13:10,177
Speaker 2: about to get beat as the incumbent in Montana. But

238
00:13:10,217 --> 00:13:13,457
Speaker 2: maybe that's a little too enthusiastic. Right now, what are

239
00:13:13,457 --> 00:13:14,777
Speaker 2: you seeing about Senate control?

240
00:13:16,057 --> 00:13:18,817
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's it's basically a fadea complete that

241
00:13:18,897 --> 00:13:21,737
Speaker 1: Republicans will have a majority in the Senate. It depends

242
00:13:22,137 --> 00:13:25,137
Speaker 1: the question is Bernie Marino Kenny upset and with Share Brown,

243
00:13:25,137 --> 00:13:28,217
Speaker 1: but Tesla looks gone. West Virginia will absolutely flip the

244
00:13:28,297 --> 00:13:31,417
Speaker 1: Republican hands. And Ohio is the big question mark. I

245
00:13:31,457 --> 00:13:34,737
Speaker 1: can go to fifty two Senate seats, Republican Senate seats

246
00:13:34,777 --> 00:13:38,377
Speaker 1: to forty eight, and then there is an open question

247
00:13:38,457 --> 00:13:41,977
Speaker 1: mark over like Michigan. Right, could Michigan flip Republican? I

248
00:13:41,977 --> 00:13:45,897
Speaker 1: think that's the next closest one after Ohio. And it's

249
00:13:46,137 --> 00:13:48,377
Speaker 1: really kind of a bit of a slog just because

250
00:13:48,417 --> 00:13:51,817
Speaker 1: Michigan is much bluer than than you know Ohio would be.

251
00:13:51,857 --> 00:13:55,337
Speaker 1: Let's say, but if it's possible, if Rogers can do it,

252
00:13:55,377 --> 00:13:57,457
Speaker 1: then that would bring it to fifty three. After that,

253
00:13:57,497 --> 00:14:00,057
Speaker 1: it's very hard to see a fifty four then unless

254
00:14:00,097 --> 00:14:03,417
Speaker 1: Republicans really just run the table. The polls are all

255
00:14:03,457 --> 00:14:07,937
Speaker 1: completely off and Trump wins very handily by a point

256
00:14:07,977 --> 00:14:11,657
Speaker 1: to two points in the Roscoe states of Pennsylvania, Michigan,

257
00:14:11,697 --> 00:14:15,177
Speaker 1: and Wisconsin. Unless that happens, though it's looking like a

258
00:14:15,217 --> 00:14:18,377
Speaker 1: fifty one or fifty two seat Republican majority. The question

259
00:14:18,417 --> 00:14:20,937
Speaker 1: is can Burnham Marino get it over the line against

260
00:14:20,937 --> 00:14:24,177
Speaker 1: Shared Brown and holes are starting to swing in Bernie's favor.

261
00:14:24,257 --> 00:14:26,337
Speaker 1: As the late breaking numbers are coming in.

262
00:14:26,937 --> 00:14:28,817
Speaker 2: Is carry Lake going to lose in Arizona again?

263
00:14:30,177 --> 00:14:32,897
Speaker 1: Oh, she is going to lose in an absolute landslide.

264
00:14:32,937 --> 00:14:34,537
Speaker 1: It's going to look like the first fifteen minutes of

265
00:14:34,537 --> 00:14:39,657
Speaker 1: saving Private Ryan. Yeah, it's not. It's she will be

266
00:14:40,017 --> 00:14:42,897
Speaker 1: the She is the Stacy Abrams of the Republican Party,

267
00:14:43,457 --> 00:14:45,897
Speaker 1: and it is about time to stop running those kinds

268
00:14:45,897 --> 00:14:49,417
Speaker 1: of people off for office over and over and over again.

269
00:14:49,457 --> 00:14:52,257
Speaker 1: And also somebody who is never, frankly in the state.

270
00:14:52,377 --> 00:14:54,857
Speaker 1: That is the biggest criticism I've heard about her repeatedly.

271
00:14:54,937 --> 00:14:57,337
Speaker 1: She's always in Florida, she's in another state, she's doing

272
00:14:57,417 --> 00:15:01,137
Speaker 1: media press, but she's never in Arizona. I've heard this

273
00:15:01,217 --> 00:15:05,537
Speaker 1: from time and again from Republican She's not fundraising, and

274
00:15:06,297 --> 00:15:09,137
Speaker 1: she cares a lot about being a personality and not

275
00:15:09,257 --> 00:15:12,097
Speaker 1: so much a poulty. But this will be There is

276
00:15:12,137 --> 00:15:16,057
Speaker 1: a very very very strong chance that Donald Trump wins

277
00:15:16,097 --> 00:15:20,337
Speaker 1: Arizona and Carry Lake loses Arizona, which will finally she

278
00:15:20,417 --> 00:15:22,177
Speaker 1: will not be able to sit there and say Arizona

279
00:15:22,217 --> 00:15:25,497
Speaker 1: was stolen from her, given that they voted for Donald Trump,

280
00:15:25,537 --> 00:15:28,537
Speaker 1: and then we could finally be rid of Carry Lake's

281
00:15:28,537 --> 00:15:30,777
Speaker 1: insanity that we've had to deal with for two elections.

282
00:15:30,777 --> 00:15:32,657
Speaker 2: You're gonna get a lot of interesting comments on this

283
00:15:32,777 --> 00:15:34,937
Speaker 2: video from the Carry Lake fans. I can tell you that.

284
00:15:37,457 --> 00:15:39,337
Speaker 1: It is the truth. I don't care if you don't

285
00:15:39,417 --> 00:15:41,417
Speaker 1: like me for it. It is what it is, and I

286
00:15:41,537 --> 00:15:42,457
Speaker 1: will stand.

287
00:15:42,257 --> 00:15:45,377
Speaker 2: By that ker Dusky doesn't back down. I'm gonna ask

288
00:15:45,417 --> 00:15:49,337
Speaker 2: you one more on the house here in just a

289
00:15:49,377 --> 00:15:51,137
Speaker 2: second and what you see going on there. But you

290
00:15:51,137 --> 00:15:54,577
Speaker 2: know fall hunting seasons coming up very quickly. Bear Creek Garsonal,

291
00:15:54,697 --> 00:15:56,777
Speaker 2: my friends, if you want a new rifle for hunting season,

292
00:15:56,817 --> 00:15:59,057
Speaker 2: this is who you need to go with. North Carolina

293
00:15:59,097 --> 00:16:01,657
Speaker 2: based company, and they've been one of the best kept

294
00:16:01,657 --> 00:16:04,977
Speaker 2: secrets of firearms business. But they've been doing so well.

295
00:16:05,017 --> 00:16:07,057
Speaker 2: As people try them, they say, hold on a second.

296
00:16:07,097 --> 00:16:10,617
Speaker 2: I get this quality at this price point, unbeatable out

297
00:16:10,617 --> 00:16:13,177
Speaker 2: there for farms. I've got five Bear Creek Arsenal farms

298
00:16:13,177 --> 00:16:15,217
Speaker 2: myself here at home. I got pistols, I got rifles.

299
00:16:15,577 --> 00:16:17,417
Speaker 2: Go check out what you can get. Go to Bear

300
00:16:17,497 --> 00:16:20,257
Speaker 2: Creek Arsenal dot com. You can save ten percent off

301
00:16:20,297 --> 00:16:22,137
Speaker 2: your first order when you use my name buck as

302
00:16:22,137 --> 00:16:25,297
Speaker 2: your promo code. That's bear Creek Arsenal dot Com ten

303
00:16:25,337 --> 00:16:27,737
Speaker 2: percent off your first order when you use my name

304
00:16:27,817 --> 00:16:32,137
Speaker 2: buck as your coupon code. Mister Gridusky, one more for

305
00:16:32,217 --> 00:16:36,457
Speaker 2: you the oh. I want to ask actually about Kim

306
00:16:36,497 --> 00:16:39,177
Speaker 2: McCormick win against Casey in Pennsylvania.

307
00:16:40,737 --> 00:16:43,297
Speaker 1: You know, I see the polls tightening and the Republicans

308
00:16:43,337 --> 00:16:47,337
Speaker 1: are certainly having a good absentee ballad drive. I'm not sure,

309
00:16:47,537 --> 00:16:52,297
Speaker 1: given just how much you know Casey is well liked

310
00:16:52,337 --> 00:16:56,537
Speaker 1: in that state, it could happen. It's not impossible. It's

311
00:16:56,577 --> 00:16:59,017
Speaker 1: a very hard slog I think that you're more likely

312
00:16:59,017 --> 00:17:01,617
Speaker 1: going to see a Republican win in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

313
00:17:01,697 --> 00:17:05,977
Speaker 1: But it is not impossible, and Republicans in Pennsylvania are

314
00:17:06,137 --> 00:17:09,257
Speaker 1: doing the work. It is showing in the fact that

315
00:17:09,257 --> 00:17:12,697
Speaker 1: listen in twenty twenty two, Republicans led Democrats in just

316
00:17:12,817 --> 00:17:16,737
Speaker 1: two counties in the absentee ballot results in before the

317
00:17:16,777 --> 00:17:20,337
Speaker 1: election was started, So they had such a heavy lead

318
00:17:20,777 --> 00:17:23,017
Speaker 1: that on election day in twenty twenty two, there was

319
00:17:23,017 --> 00:17:25,537
Speaker 1: almost no chance for Republicans to dig themselves out of

320
00:17:25,537 --> 00:17:29,217
Speaker 1: the hole. In twenty twenty twenty, during COVID, it was

321
00:17:29,217 --> 00:17:32,857
Speaker 1: about twelve counties as of right now, Republicans lead Democrats

322
00:17:32,897 --> 00:17:35,337
Speaker 1: in sixteen counties. They are rural counties, but they are

323
00:17:35,417 --> 00:17:39,137
Speaker 1: leading in the absentee vote. They shouldn't be ever leading

324
00:17:39,177 --> 00:17:42,177
Speaker 1: anywhere in the absentee vote. And that number sixteen is

325
00:17:42,217 --> 00:17:44,297
Speaker 1: gonna go to about twenty one or twenty two in

326
00:17:44,337 --> 00:17:47,217
Speaker 1: the next seven days. The way the absidy ballots are

327
00:17:47,217 --> 00:17:51,337
Speaker 1: already breaking, in the way the numbers are moving by

328
00:17:51,457 --> 00:17:54,297
Speaker 1: election day, in the next three weeks where apstey ballots

329
00:17:54,297 --> 00:17:57,937
Speaker 1: are being gathered, Republicans are going to very close, if

330
00:17:57,977 --> 00:18:01,577
Speaker 1: not meet their twenty twenty presidential numbers. Democrats are going

331
00:18:01,617 --> 00:18:04,377
Speaker 1: to get a half a million less in the absentee ballot. Now,

332
00:18:04,377 --> 00:18:07,577
Speaker 1: could they show up on election day? Possibly? But could

333
00:18:07,617 --> 00:18:10,097
Speaker 1: they not possibly? You know, I don't know. Maybe so.

334
00:18:10,137 --> 00:18:13,897
Speaker 1: The Philadelphia choirir had that story out yesterday saying that

335
00:18:14,097 --> 00:18:18,497
Speaker 1: working class blacks, Hispanics, and whites in Philadelphia are breaking

336
00:18:18,537 --> 00:18:21,297
Speaker 1: heavily towards Trump and Democrats are worried about it. I

337
00:18:21,297 --> 00:18:24,737
Speaker 1: talked to a Democrat analysis yesterday who said the working

338
00:18:24,737 --> 00:18:29,457
Speaker 1: class in Philadelphia itself, Philadelphia proper, is not working out

339
00:18:29,497 --> 00:18:31,697
Speaker 1: for Democrats the way they did. And just before I

340
00:18:31,737 --> 00:18:35,017
Speaker 1: went on your podcast, today, the Firefighters Union just announced

341
00:18:35,017 --> 00:18:37,257
Speaker 1: they were not endorsing Kamala and that was the first

342
00:18:37,337 --> 00:18:41,217
Speaker 1: union to endorse Biden in twenty twenty. So could he win?

343
00:18:41,497 --> 00:18:41,737
Speaker 2: Yeah?

344
00:18:41,857 --> 00:18:44,777
Speaker 1: Is he favored to know? But it's not an impossibility.

345
00:18:45,057 --> 00:18:47,657
Speaker 1: McCormick would one hundred percent do it, and it wouldn't

346
00:18:47,697 --> 00:18:51,217
Speaker 1: be stunningly shocking. Let's say, if you know Carr related it,

347
00:18:51,417 --> 00:18:55,497
Speaker 1: that would be an insane surprise. McCormick winning it would

348
00:18:55,497 --> 00:18:57,337
Speaker 1: be a it would be a come from behind victory.

349
00:18:57,417 --> 00:18:58,737
Speaker 1: But it's not an impossibility.

350
00:18:58,817 --> 00:19:00,377
Speaker 2: Who's going to control the House.

351
00:19:01,457 --> 00:19:04,177
Speaker 1: Whoever wins the presidency. It's just going to be a

352
00:19:04,177 --> 00:19:06,977
Speaker 1: matter of that. Whoever wins the Trump can win the presidency,

353
00:19:07,377 --> 00:19:11,097
Speaker 1: he will control the House representatives. Owins the president, she

354
00:19:11,177 --> 00:19:13,537
Speaker 1: shilled probably control the House representatives. It will be on

355
00:19:13,537 --> 00:19:17,537
Speaker 1: that margin, don't I think the bigger question is what

356
00:19:17,697 --> 00:19:21,977
Speaker 1: does Donald Trump do in very blue states? Can his

357
00:19:22,097 --> 00:19:24,977
Speaker 1: margin in New York go from D plus twenty three

358
00:19:25,057 --> 00:19:27,817
Speaker 1: and twenty twenty to D plus fourteen as some polls

359
00:19:27,817 --> 00:19:30,617
Speaker 1: have suggested. Some poles have been winning five or six

360
00:19:30,657 --> 00:19:34,257
Speaker 1: more points in California, four or five more points in

361
00:19:34,297 --> 00:19:37,777
Speaker 1: New Jersey, a couple more points in Illinois. The House

362
00:19:37,937 --> 00:19:41,777
Speaker 1: majority for Republicans runs through blue states. If he can

363
00:19:41,817 --> 00:19:44,297
Speaker 1: pick up a couple more swing districts and blue states

364
00:19:44,417 --> 00:19:47,777
Speaker 1: Mike Garcia and Mike Lawler in New York, Mike Garstina

365
00:19:47,777 --> 00:19:52,497
Speaker 1: in California, Illinois, seventeen in Illinois. That those races, if

366
00:19:52,537 --> 00:19:54,977
Speaker 1: he can win a couple of them, Joe Kent race

367
00:19:55,217 --> 00:19:57,937
Speaker 1: in Washington's third, if he can win a couple of them,

368
00:19:58,297 --> 00:20:00,617
Speaker 1: he will absolutely control the House. But those margins in

369
00:20:00,657 --> 00:20:02,937
Speaker 1: those blue states would be very, very curious.

370
00:20:03,577 --> 00:20:06,897
Speaker 2: Ryan Gardowski, go check out the National Populist newsletter. You

371
00:20:06,937 --> 00:20:09,417
Speaker 2: can subscribe on substack. Ryan, thanks so much man, good

372
00:20:09,457 --> 00:20:10,897
Speaker 2: to see you.

373
00:20:10,897 --> 00:20:11,217
Speaker 1: You too,